Curtis Granderson’s 2009 season has received plenty of scrutiny, and this was even before trade rumors crept up. Granderson struggled at times during the season, and had a hard time sustaining success. His .249 batting average was the lowest of his career and it was a drag on his on base percentage and slugging percentage as well. We know batting average is volatile so did Granderson just suffer from some bad luck, or did something else change? Fortunately we have hit location data to help shed some light on these questions.

Granderson’s batting average was dragged down by a .276 batting average on balls in play. That is a number that should typically be in the .320ish range, especially for someone with Granderson’s speed. A shift like that would lead people to think he was largely unlucky. A closer look would show a shift in his balls in play from the harder to field grounders to the easier to field fly balls. Ask fans what they saw and many would say it looked like Granderson got overly concerned with the homers (a new career high) and that he pulled the ball to much. But what would the data say?

Spray Charts and other data

Below are spray charts for each of Granderson’s last 3 years. These charts were assembled by using data from the MLB.com Gameday application. The hit locations are reported by the MLB.com stringer and aren’t absolute positions in the sense that Pitch f/x measures things, but this serves as a very nice proxy. The blue dots are outs, the orange dots are hits. Click on each chart to get a larger view.

One of the nice things about spray charts is that there is plenty of data and certain trends can emerge. One of the not so nice things about spray charts is that there is plenty of data and they can sometimes be overwhelming.

The pretty orange table to the right takes the above spray charts and puts them into tabular form. The vector is the direction the ball was hit. Second base is 90 degrees from home plate, the first baseline is at 135 degrees and the third baseline is at 45 degrees. The gradient shading indicates the higher percentages, the darker the field, the higher the concentration of balls in play.

While he’s been a pull hitter his whole career, it became much more pronounced in 2009 with half of his balls in play (50%)between the first baseline and the approximate spot of the second baseman. That easily topped his previous seasons where he had 42% and 46% in 2007 and 2008 respectively.

Summarizing the table into  a more compact table gives us:

Dir.	2007	2008	2009
Oppo	16.53%	21.41%	16.53%
Middle	36.23%	34.22%	29.08%
Pull	46.40%	42.60%	50.60%

Opposite is defined as vectors 50-75,  middle is defined as 80-105, and pull is defined as 110-135 (keep in mind these are actually buckets so the something like 76 would fall in the 80 bucket and 46 would fall in the 50 bucket).

Granderson went the opposite way at the exact same rate as 2007, his best season. The 2008 season was when he spread the ball around the most, but the difference between 2009 and the other season was the rate at which he took the ball up the middle.

Pulling the ball isn’t a bad thing

We hear it all the time that batters get too pull happy. Maybe Granderson falls into that category in 2009, but if you look at his overall numbers he hits MUCH better to the pull field. For his career he hits .470 on balls that he pulls versus .302 on balls up the middle and .293 on balls to the left side.

Granderson continued to thrive when pulling the ball in 2009, perhaps dismissing the notion that he was pull-happy. He posted a .457 batting average on pulled balls as opposed to hitting .241 up the middle and .221 to the opposite field.

But I won’t dismiss the notion and instead speculate that Granderson either a)tried to pull the ball too much and balls the other way were accidents or b)had a mechanical change that prevented him from driving the ball when he wasn’t pulling it. Or maybe it was some combination of both, like b) fostering a).

The air outs

The biggest change in Granderson’s batted ball distribution was the exchange of ground balls for fly balls. Granderson’s line drive rate was right in line with his career mark (21.2 % in 2009 and 20.7% overall). But Granderson for his career is a 36% ground ball hitter and a 43% fly ball hitter. In 2009 those numbers were 29% and 49%. This shift helped Granderson’s home run production, but it hurt his batting average on balls in play driving down his overall batting average.

Not all fly balls are created equal. Some fly balls have a chance to become home runs or gappers. Pop-ups have a very small chance of becoming anything other than an easy out. Unfortunately Granderson hit a ton of pop-ups in 2009. Those pop-ups also accounted for a healthy percentage of the balls that Granderson hit to the opposite field.

You’ll see that the Fly Out profile remained fairly consistent in terms of distribution across each of the last 3 years. It’s the fly balls classified as Pop Outs that rose dramatically. Also, Granderson did tend to pull everything that he hit on the ground with only 26 ground outs that weren’t pulled in 2009.

*A brief aside on classifications – These are how MLB.com classified items and they are the ones that made distinction between Pop Outs and Fly Outs. Also, these are pretty much the classifications we have to work with. I don’t have information like “Ground ball single to left” to account for hits that went to the left side on the ground.

For those who prefer the visual representation of the spray chart, the plot below has all of Granderson’s Fly Outs and Pop-Outs for the last 3 years.

Visually it’s easy to see the disproportionate number of red dots as opposed to the other colors. The other thing I think I see (haven’t quantified it) is that there are more deep blue and green dots in left field.

Putting it together

As with most things there isn’t just one answer. Because he still did well when pulling the ball, I don’t think he was necessarily pulling the ball too much. The pop-ups were a large source of the drop in batting average with infield flies having a similar negative impact as a strikeout. It almost always results in an out and almost always fails to advance runners. The difference is that a couple manage to drop (ask Gerald Laird and his love affair with the right field foul line).

Hitters do have some control over infield flies and with Granderson doubling his rate there was probably a change. The 2006 Hardball Times annual shows us that there is a .60 year to year correlation for infield fly rates for hitters so it is something that hitters do have control over.

Using the xBABIP calculator Granderson’s BABIP should have been about .301. So we can ballpark it and say half of his dip in BABIP can be attributed to bad luck, and about half can be chalked up to a change in batted ball distribution.

I don’t know that Granderson needs to use the whole field to be effective. He was very effective in 2007 without hitting a lot of balls to the opposite field. But he probably does need to use more of the field than he did in 2009 when a big chunk of opposite field balls were merely pop-ups.

Detroit Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera and starting pitcher Justin Verlander were voted the Tigers’ top positional player and top pitcher of 2009, in a vote conducted by the Detroit Independent Baseball Scribes.

Cabrera and Verlander each received 20 first-place votes. Cabrera had a .942 on-base percentage plus slugging average (OPS), which was good for fifth in the American League. He had a .324 batting average, 34 home runs and 103 RBIs. All four categories led the Tigers. His Ultimate Zone Rating of 2.8 ranked second of all AL first basemen.

Verlander led baseball in strikeouts with 269 and was tied for first in the AL with 19 wins. He had an ERA of 3.45. He led the Tigers in all three categories.

Voting was also conducted in two other categories: breakout player of the year, for the player experiencing his first taste of success in the major leagues; and most improved, for the player who made the biggest step forward from the previous season.

Rookie right-handed starting pitcher Rick Porcello earned 18 of 20 votes for the breakout honors. The 20-year-old completed the season with a 14-9 record, 3.96 ERA and 89 strikeouts in 170 2/3 innings. Also receiving votes were right-handed starting pitcher Edwin Jackson (1) and utility player Ryan Raburn (1).

Verlander was also named comeback player of the year, rebounding from a 2008 season which saw him go 11-17 with a 4.84 ERA and 163 strikeouts. He received 11 of 20  votes in the category. Also receiving votes were right-handed closer Fernando Rodney (3), Raburn (2), Brandon Inge (1), Brandon Lyon (1), Jackson (1) and utility infielder Ramon Santiago (1).

Voting was conducted during the week of Nov. 9-15.

Established in 2005, the Detroit Independent Baseball Scribes now has 21 members who write primarily on the Internet. Its member writers are affiliated with such online organizations as MLive.com (Booth Newspapers), SB Nation, ESPN.com, Freep.com, Bleacher Report, Yardbarker, MVN, Fan Blog and Fan Huddle.

The Detroit Independent Baseball Scribes include:
Bless You Boys — Ian Casselberry
Daily Fungo — Mike McClary
DesigNate Robertson — Scott Rogowski
Detroit Tigers Den — Austin Drake
Detroit Tigers Weblog — Bill Ferris
Eye of the Tigers — J. Ellet Lambie
Fire Jim Leyland — Mike Rogers
It’s Just Sports — Patrick Hayes
Jamie Samuelsen’s Blog — Jamie Samuelsen
Mack Avenue Tigers – Kurt Mensching
MLive’s The Cutoff Man — James Schmehl and Scott Warheit
Old English D — Jennifer Cosey
Roar of the Tigers — Samara Pearstein
Spot Starters — Blake Vande Bunte
Take 75 North – Matt Wallace
Tigers Amateur Analysis – Erin Saelzler
Tigerblog — Brian Borawski
Tiger Geist – John Brunn
Tiger Tales — Lee Panas
Tiger Tracks — John Parent
Where have you gone, Johnny Grubb? –Greg Eno

Things continue to go well for the Tigers’ Arizona contingent – excepting Scott Sizemore’s injury of course. Robbie Weinhardt’s rough 3 outing start is a thing of the past. Casper Wells continues to hit.  Andy Oliver, Thad Weber, and Scot Drucker are all seeing some success as the Peoria Javelinas lead the league.

Robbie Weinhardt

Weinhardt gave up 7 runs in his first 3 appearances, and none since. In his last 5 outings he’s thrown 10 scoreless innings. He’s allowed just 1 walk and 5 hits with 17 strike outs over that span. His 25 K’s lead the league. Those are remarkable numbers in an offense dominated league.

Casper Wells

Wells is leading the AFL in slugging at .750 and he’s 4th in on base percentage. He did have to leave yesterday’s game when trying to beat out a play at first. The Daily Fungo’s Mike McClary was in attendance and tweeted that Wells was able to limp off under his own power.

The Rest

In Oliver’s last 7 innings (4 games) he’s only allowed 1 unearned run, 3 walks, and 6 hits while fanning 8…Thad Weber has walked only 1 batter in 9 innings while fanning 10…Drucker has been up and down vacillating between good and bad outings. Today was a good one with 3 scoreless frames…Cale Iorg had a 2 game break out that saw him hit a homer and a double. But in 45 at-bats he has a .512 OPS and 16 strike outs.

I don’t know that we’ll cover every Tigers trade rumor here. It usually isn’t worth the effort, but there were some fairy significant reports regarding subjects of Edwin Jackson and Curtis Granderson.

The New York and Chicago media have been beating the drum for Granderson to land in their respective cities. Now there are reports that Dave Dombrowski has had discussions with the Angels. The Angels have 24 year old shortstop prospect Brandon Wood who the Tigers may find appealing. Granderson would presumably move to left field with Torii Hunter manning center.

If the thought of trading Granderson is upsetting to you (it is to me), you may take some comfort in that at least one AL executive doesn’t think it’s going to happen.

On the Jackson front, the Tigers have talked with Doug Melvin and the Milwaukee Brewers. I’m sure they’ve talked with a number of clubs, but here’s the money quote:

"Dave’s in charge of that one," said Melvin. "They’ll identify which clubs are matches and they’ll call them. he’s looking for young players and young pitchers."

I agree with Jason Beck in that it sounds like the team is doing a little more than just listening to offers.

I don’t remember the general manager meetings being this interesting in past years. Most of the action seems to usually take place at the winter meetings that take place in December. This year the GM meetings have served Tigers fans up with a disconcerting set of rumors with the Tigers making most of the team available for trade. But does this qualify as a fire sale?

It all started Tuesday night when the news hit that Edwin Jackson could be available along with Gerald Laird. Things got more interesting Wednesday afternoon when a New York Post story cited a National League executive who said the Tigers were listening to offers on Curtis Granderson. Olney later tweeted the same information. With two All Stars potentially on the block, a depressed economic region, and a payroll that leaves little flexibility the phrases “financial difficulty” and “fire sale” began working their way into columns. By evening Jon Heyman added Brandon Inge (h/t MLBTR) to the list of those the Tigers could be looking to trade. Are the Tigers slashing payroll?

Dave Dombrowski denied that the Tigers were in fire sale mode. He also iterated that the Tigers don’t have a set payroll yet from Mike Ilitch. So if the Tigers aren’t cutting and slashing the payroll, what is behind all the rumor and speculation?

When the Jackson rumor hit we went through a number of factors and possible scenarios. With Granderson and Inge added to the list it clears up a lot of the possibilities but I don’t think it points to payroll slashing. What I do think it confirms – and this isn’t a surprise – is that the team likely has limited flexibility with their payroll.

What we’re seeing now is every player on the roster with potential value being floated. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Miguel Cabrera’s name or Justin Verlander’s names pop up in the coming weeks. The Tigers have holes to fill and limited means to fill them. They also have a number of contracts coming off the books after 2010. If the Tigers trade a player or two to fill a couple holes and get younger or cheaper at the same time, it’s a win – especially going into a season where playoff aspirations are likely limited.

Granderson, Laird, Jackson, and Inge all make some money, but the 4 are a relatively small part of the overall payroll. Moving one or two of them isn’t going to have a significant financial impact. It’s more a matter of improving the team in the long run.

With Granderson and Jackson in particular the Tigers would be able to net a significant package. These players aren’t going to be given away which means that it is unlikely they are going anywhere, and if they do the team stands to be better for it.*

*The above paragraph is my best attempt at taking a cold and analytical look at the situation. The fan in me is sick about the thought of Curtis Granderson playing for another team. So maybe on second thought the paragraph is an attempt at rationalizing the minimal likelihood of a Granderson trade to make me feel better.

There has been considerable speculation about the Tigers financial state. The payroll will be high, and there are continued questions about revenue potential. Mike Ilitch saw less advertising revenue. Attendance was relatively strong, but the Tigers missed out on any postseason gate receipts despite adding payroll midseason. Now Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi are reporting that Dave Dombrowski is listening to offers on Edwin Jackson.

Jackson will likely command a salary of about $5 million in 2010 as he enters his 2nd of 3 years of arbitration eligibility and so a trade would seemingly be at least a year early. The salary wouldn’t appear to be prohibitive for a player that was 3.5 WAR last year and 1.5 WAR each of the previous 2 years. In other words, Jackson will have surplus value next year even he reverts closer to his 2007-8 numbers than his 2009 campaign. Of course value or not, cash is cash and if the Tigers don’t have the money they don’t have the money regardless of the value.

Aside from money, or perhaps in addition to it, are there are reasons why trading Jackson may be desirable?

The Sell High theory

Why this makes sense: Jackson is coming off legitimately the best season of his career. His 3.62 ERA was stellar, but he pitched into some luck without a remarkable strike out rate. His FIP ERA was 4.28. Definitely above average, but not eye-popping. Jackson faded down the stretch – badly. Perhaps the Tigers think Jackson hit his ceiling and they don’t think he can replicate or build upon his 2009 season. They know that Jim Leyland rode him pretty hard and they’re worried about his health or stamina going forward.

Bill James predicts his FIP to balloon back to 4.72 for the 2010 season. If the Tigers can parlay his 2009 season into younger/cheaper talent it may make sense to move now.

Why this doesn’t make sense: As mentioned earlier, Jackson is still a good bet to be a good value as long as he remains under club control. Plus, opposing GM’s have access to all these same stats and circumstances. Also, the Tigers would need to replace over 200 innings of above league average  production and it’s doubtful that talent exists currently in the organization. This leads us to…

Freeing up money for a big move theory

Why this makes sense: The Tigers were reported to meet with Aroldis Chapman who will command big money. Perhaps the Tigers think they have a shot at Chapman and that he could step right into the rotation. I don’t know how Chapman’s contract would be structured, but it seems reasonable that he would make comparable money (or perhaps a little less) than Jackson in 2010. The upshot is the team gets younger without adding payroll in the coming season – and they get some prospects.

Why this doesn’t make sense: Lots of teams want Chapman and that would be a lot of eggs to put in a basket that may be full of holes.

Pitcher X is ready theory

Why this makes sense: Andy Oliver, the Tigers 2009 second round pick was aggressively sent to the Arizona Fall League where he’s had some success after getting roughed up in his first outing. Are the Tigers looking at a rotation of Verlander/Porcello/Bonderman/Oliver/Robertson in 2010? The Tigers are paying Bonderman and Robertson (and Willis) no matter what so they might as well try and extract something from them. They aren’t movable but Jackson is. Plus the Tigers have been aggressive in their promotions in the past.

You could also make the case that the Tigers think they have found something in Scot Drucker. He’s also been strong in the AFL and he could find himself in the mix as well come April 2010.

Why this doesn’t make sense: Oliver is very talented and could prove to be a great pick in the second round. But he has 12 professional inning at this point and a 13:8 K:BB ratio. I’m not saying that Oliver couldn’t make starts at some point in 2010 – or even break camp in the rotation – but to pencil him in 3 months before spring training starts would be kind of crazy.

Drucker is probably a more legitimate candidate for this spot, but I don’t think he’s at the point where the Tigers would be freeing up a rotation spot for him.

Playing for beyond 2010

Why this makes sense: As challenged as the Tigers will be with payroll in 2010, things get better in 2011. Robertson, Bonderman’s, Inge’s, and Willis’ contracts all come off the books and because of Ordonez’s limited playing time in 2009 he isn’t a sure bet to vest for 2011. Maybe the Tigers bite the bullet in 2010 knowing that things will be better in the future with a core of Miguel Cabrera, Curtis Granderson, Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello and hopefully developing youngsters Scott Sizemore, Alex Avila, and Ryan Perry.

Conversely, they may view the division as so weak that even in a re-tooling season they could hang around enough in the AL Central to make things interesting.

If Jackson isn’t required under these scenarios, now might be the time to trade him because his value may not be appreciably higher after the 2010 season. If he can replicate 2009 next year it would further establish that 2009 was a break through rather than a fluke, but it would also take away a year of club control for the receiving team.

Why this doesn’t make sense: The Tigers will still have over a $100 million payroll without Jackson and that is too much for a re-tooling team. The Tigers are likely to be turning to a younger middle infield already, as well as a new closer most likely. If the payroll is too high for a non-competing team then the talent without Jackson probably isn’t sufficient for a middling team.

Putting it together

If the Tigers are serious about trading Jackson, there are probably facets of each of the above scenarios that come into play. Even then, the overarching motivation is probably money. The same Fox Sports article also mentioned that industry sources are saying that Gerald Laird is available as well further leading to the cash flow theory. But at the same time the Tigers are still talking about bringing Brandon Lyon back and he’ll command a salary similar to what Jackson would make.

As long as Mike Ilitch is mum on the payroll fans are left to speculate as to how Dombrowski will improve a team with many question marks on a tight budget. Unconventional moves like flipping Jackson may the only recourse to get through to the salary relief coming after 2010.

At least one Tiger is assured of some post season hardware. Placido Polanco won his second Gold Glove for excellence in the field of fielding. Polanco had a very fine defensive season and he was one of a handful of players (Mark Ellis, Dustin Pedroia, Aaron Hill) who were deserving at second base.

Polanco was the only Tiger to notch the honor. Gerald Laird was deserving at the catcher position and Brandon Inge could have made a case to be in the discussion at the hot corner. Joe Mauer and Evan Longoria took home the award though at their respective positions.

But back to Polanco’s candidacy. Rob Neyer wasn’t a fan of the choice grouping Polanco with Derek Jeter, Torii Hunter, and Adam Jones as the players that the voters “flat out blew it.” I’m not really sure how Polanco fits in that group. Polanco fared well on both conventional fielding metrics (only 2 errors) as well as the more advanced measures as Detroit Tiger Tales summarizes. Using most objective measures Polanco was a legitimate winner so I don’t know what Neyer is exactly looking for.

As an aside, props to Tigers MLB.com beat reporter Jason Beck who referenced Polanco’s UZR number in his story. It’s great to see the mainstream guys helping to go to the newer stats and it’s the only way that these will gain more traction.

• Red Wings legend Steve Yzerman goes to the Hall of Fame | freep.com | Detroit Free Press
  Not Tigers, but c’mon. It’s the Captain we’re talking about here. Congrats Steve Yzerman. You always did Detroit proud.
• 2010 Top 50 Free Agents: MLB Rumors – MLBTradeRumors.com
  Tim Dierkes tries to forecast where the top 50 free agents (his ranking) end up. The Tigers aren’t in the mix on many of these guys.
• Tiger Tales: A Detroit Tigers Blog: All-Time Top Twenty Tigers Hitters by WAR
  Lee takes a historical look at the all time Tigers leaders in Wins Above Replacement.
• Mack Avenue Tigers – Detroit Tigers blog – Arbitration dos and don’ts
  Kurt looks at the arbitration question marks the Tigers face. I think they offer Rodney and Lyon. I think if they offer Polanco it isn’t to get the draft picks, it’s because they want him back.
• 2009 Elias Rankings Released: MLB Rumors – MLBTradeRumors.com
  The official rankings are out. Eddie Bajek has been forecasting this stuff all season and out of all of MLB he only missed on 6 players. That was due to a playing time discrepancy. Pretty impressive stuff.

The Tigers announced yesterday that Tom Brookens would be the new first base and outfield and base running coach. Brookens is an organizational soldier and it’s nice to see him get the opportunity to don the Old English D again. But it does raise the question about the qualifications or importance of positional coaches.

Brookens of course knows baseball. The former 4th overall pick in the 1975 draft had a 12 year big league career and has managed in the Tigers organization at Oneonta, West Michigan, and Erie. But very little of that career came in the outfield. Very little.

I know that you don’t have to have been a great hitter to be a good hitting coach, and the same is true of pitching. There is clearly a difference between having the knowledge and communication skills and having the physical talent to carry that out. But hitting coaches still typically were hitters and pitching coaches still typically were pitchers. Brookens was primarily and infielder. Brookens himself addressed his lack of experience in the outfield in a conversation with Jason Beck.

"I think handling all those facets in the minor leagues will help me some," Brookens said. "Certainly my playings days didn’t take me to the outfield much. I know plenty about the fundamentals of the outfield, [such as] footwork, release points, and that’s a lot of what it comes down to, really. I’ve always considered myself a good baserunner. I don’t foresee any real problems with any of those."

Brookens did presumably pick up a great deal of experience coaching outfield in the minors. Managers at that level need to be a jack of all trades. But is there any value in having a coach who can share insights about reading the ball off the bat or subtleties of positioning that come from years actually playing the position? I don’t know. I’m just asking the question.

None of this is meant to discredit Brookens in any way. That same article from Beck mentioned that Brookens is viewed as a great communicator. Because he has spent the last half decade in the Tigers system, he probably brings with him some valuable insight into many of the players who the Tigers will rely on over the next couple seasons.

As for whether or not this move signals Tigers are grooming Brookens to become the next Tigers manager, that remains to be seen. I think Leyland has pretty much total control over his coaching hires. I do agree the Tigers have been promoting him through the system with that possibility in mind, but I don’t know that this promotion changes it at all. What it may mean though is that Leyland is trying to position his successor.

One of the few positives of the end of the baseball season is the Annual Bill James Handbook (aff link) arriving on my doorstep. At one time it was the only place to easily find a number of uncommon stats. Sites like Fangraphs and Baseball Reference and the rise of Pitch F/X data make some of these stats easier to come by, but the Handbook is still a trove of baseball stats.

This year’s edition has the usual favorites like:

• Base running stats: Gerald Laird was one of the better base runners on the team at +11 bases. Ordonez was –17 and dragged down by his GIDP rate and the fact he went first to third in only 2 of his 27 chances.
• The Fielding Bible Awards: Placido Polanco and Brandon Inge ranked 6th at their respective positions while Curtis Granderson finished 3rd amongst center fielders.
• Manufactured Runs: The Tigers ranked 8th in the AL, right in the middle of the pack. The Angels were far ahead of anybody else and the Twins were a solid second. Granderson manufactured the most runs for the Tigers and Gerald Laird was second on the team.
• Manager’s Stats: When the Tigers offense would struggle many would blame Jim Leyland for not putting enough plays on to manufacture runs. Leyland ordered 60 sacrifice attempts which was second in the AL to only Ron Gardenhire. He was second in putting runners in motion to only Mike Scioscia. Perhaps he was trying to hard to manufacture runs.
• Leaderboards: These are my favorites every year. Some things that I found interesting:

• Ordonez had the 4th highest batting average against lefties at .352.
• Everett led the AL with 15 sacrifice hits.
• Granderson had the lowest GIDP percentage at 0.94 which bested Ichiro Suzuki and Carlos Gomez.
• Ordonez had the 5th highest OPS in the 2nd half of the season.
• Verlander threw the 3rd highest percentage of pitches in the strike zone and he had the 2nd lowest stolen base percentage allowed.
• Porcello had the 3rd  highest GIDP per 9 innings.
• Fu-Te Ni allowed the lowest percentage of inherited runners to score and the lowest batting average against lefties for relief pitchers.
• Verlander and Jackson were first and second in total number of pitches thrown at 95 mph or faster.
• Rodney had the 3rd fastest average fastball for relievers and Ryan Perry was 7th (Zumaya didn’t throw enough innings to qualify but he had 198 pitches over 100mph which was more than the rest of the league combined).

Sorry for the late notice, but the Arizona Fall Leauge Rising Stars All Star game is tonight and is being televised. You can catch it on the MLB Network. If you don’t have the MLB Network the game is being streamed online. The Tigers are being represented by Casper Wells and Andrew Oliver and manager Kevin Bradshaw. (Game Notes & Gameday)

The Tigers made a handful of roster moves today to prepare for the offseason. They are:

• Mike Hollimon was outrighted to Toledo
• Marcus Thames and Matt Treanor have been removed from the roster and are now free agents
• Jeff Larish and Joel Zumaya have been reinstated from the disabled list
• Jay Sborz had his contract purchased from Toledo

Thoughts

The Hollimon move isn’t surprising. He very may well still have a role in the organization. He has a 260/361/478 line in his minor league career which is solid for a middle infielder. He’s also 27 and has been injured much of the last 2 seasons meaning that he wasn’t going to get claimed.

The Matt Treanor announcement isn’t surprising either. Treanor will unfortunately finish his Tigers career without a hit but he does have the distinction of catching Rick Porcello’s debut.

Jay Sborz was eligible to become a minor league free agent and the Tigers evidently think he is close enough to helping to keep him in the fold. The second round pick in the 2003 draft struggled mightily his first 3 years in the organization but has progressed nicely since 2007 and he fanned 10.4 batters per 9 innings working out of the Erie bullpen in 2009.

That brings us to Marcus Thames. As an analyst I have to say letting Thames go is clearly the right move. He is limited defensively and his batting line as a 4th outfielder/DH was acceptable when he was making much less. For the Tigers to bring him back likely would have meant a $3 million investment. With younger players like Casper Wells, Clete Thomas, and Wilkin Ramirez likely to push for back up outfielder roles and Carlos Guillen and Magglio Ordonez sharing time at DH, there wasn’t a place for Thames. I thought the Tigers would hold on to him until closer to the tender deadline and perhaps include him as part of a trade, but there must have been little interest on that front.

That said, the fan in me is very sad to see Thames go. The homers were spectacular and surprisingly clutch. He was always on the outside looking in when it came to playing time but he never publicly complained and he always played his butt off. He’s also one of the few Tigers that I’ve had a chance to talk with on multiple occasions and he struck me as one of the genuinely nicest people you’ll meet. So I wish Thames all the best where ever he ends up.

Now that the World Series is over the 15 day free agent filing period is underway. The period gives teams an “exclusive” negotiating window in which players can talk to other teams, but not talk contract parameters. So we won’t know exactly what will happens with the Tigers quartet* of impending free agents for awhile, except that they will go through the procedure of filing for free agency.

Steve Kornacki of Mlive did some catching up with a few of the possibly future former Tigers and got their thoughts on returning.

Fernando Rodney would like to stay in Detroit but is looking for a 3 to 4 year deal. It’s safe to say that he won’t get a 3 or 4 year deal from anyone (maybe 2 years with a club option for a 3rd) so that doesn’t really clear things up.

Of course the Rodney situation is in some ways tied to Brandon Lyon’s status. Understandably Lyon would like some clarification on what his role would be if he were to sign with Detroit.

And then there is what could be the Tigers nearly-departed double play combo. Everett liked his Detroit experience (quotes in the Mlive piece) but I don’t know if he liked it enough to sign a similar one year $1 million deal like he did last year when he was coming off an injury season.

The Polanco situation is the most interesting. Scouts say Scott Sizemore is ready now to hit in the big leagues. Polanco is at a tenuous age for second baseman. Polanco is a Type A free agent which means if the Tigers offer him arbitration they would net a first round pick and a sandwich pick if he signs elsewhere. Polanco is likely to get a more lucrative deal on the open market than he would with the Tigers, but that lucrative deal likely won’t be there if it means the signing team has to surrender a draft pick. Throw in the fact that the Twins** may have interest in Polanco and the situation has a whole new layer.

*Yes, I know there are 6 Tigers free agents but Aubrey Huff and Jarrod Washburn just aren’t coming back so we’ll just assume they are gone already. Washburn in fact is already talking about his return to Seattle.

**The Twins just nabbed J.J. Hardy to play shortstop in exchange for Carlos Gomez. And just because I have no place else to put this, the White Sox traded their second baseman Chris Getz, along with Josh Fields to the Royals for Mark Teahen. Maybe.

The Detroit Tigers announced third baseman Brandon Inge underwent surgery on Tuesday to address the chronic patellar tendinitis in both of his knees that plagued him throughout the 2009 season, a procedure performed by Dr. Stephen Lemos at the Detroit Medical Center.

The procedure involved the debridement and repair of the patellar tendon in both his left and right knees.

Inge will be non-weight bearing for the first six weeks as he regains full range of motion. At that time, he will begin a strengthening and rehabilitation program to prepare him for Spring Training and the 2010 season.

According to the projected timetable, Inge is expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training in February.

Inge had a great start to the season and rode that hot start to an unexpected All Star game invitation. But his second half numbers were abysmal. On July 2nd Inge was sporting a robust 275/367/521 line spanning his first 77 games. Over his next 84 games he’d only muster a 189/266/309 line. The knees, which started acting up in mid June, were often blamed for Inge’s second half slide.

With the end of the 2009 season looming, the Tigers have some roster cutting to do. They currently have 44 protected players between the 40 man roster and disabled lists. They have to get that number down to 40 in the short term and well under 40 eventually to protect minor leaguers.

The Tigers need to reduce their roster to 40 players before the free agent filing period, which is the first 15 days after the end of the World Series). Matt Treanor, Mike Hollimon, Joel Zumaya, and Jeff Larish currently find themselves on the disabled list meaning that 4 of the current 44 players need to be removed any day now.

Treanor and Hollimon will likely be two of those players. I’d like to see Dontrelle Willis be a third. In Dombrowski’s postseason media session he still thought Willis could be a productive player, but there are only so many chances one can be given. In the case of Willis my guess is that it is a matter of what the Tigers value more – the roster spot or the combined probability that a)Willis is productive and b)the are able to collect insurance if he spends another season on the DL. Don Kelly is a 4A player who will likely by DFA’d to free up space as well.

The table below breaks down the types of players currently on the 40 man roster. And by types I mean contract status. For those listed under ‘”Club Control” I have included the remaining option years as well. (For all Tigers service time and options status information check out Tigers Thoughts which has this information and more).

As Tigers Thoughts points out, Clay Rapada has seemingly fallen out of favor among the powers that be, and with no options remaining the Tigers may try (or may have already) passed him through waivers.

Clearing space for Rule 5’s

Now trimming 4 is just step one. The Tigers have other work to do with a number of players who are rule 5 eligible. Scott Sizemore tops that list and he’ll need a spot regardless of Polanco’s situation. Ryan Strieby is also a lock to be added – barring a trade of course.

Beyond Strieby and Sizemore the Tigers will need to make decisions on Brennan Boesch, Brayan Villarreal, Brett Jensen, Scot Drucker, Luis Marte, Brooks Brown, and Audy Ciriaco. Drucker’s presence and success on the ARL team may be an indication the Tigers would like to hold on to him.

So where would this space come from? I doubt that the Tigers keep both Lyon and Rodney so there is at least one spot. Marcus Thames is likely to be non-tendered so that’s 2. If the Tigers feel that Brent Dlugach could match Adam Everett’s offensive output or if they feel he could be a cheaper back-up infielder than Ramon Santiago that could make 3. Jarrod Washburn and Aubrey Huff will depart via free agency making 5 spots which may be enough to accommodate the Rule 5 eligibles but the Tigers still have other work to do.

Presumably the Tigers would like to add a member or two of the reliever class of 2008 – not for rule 5 protection – but because Robbie Weinhardt or Cody Satterwhite may be leaned on for bullpen innings in 2010. But they have until spring training to make those decisions.