The Echo Boom Bomb

Jason the Bartender On Life Without Technology

2025-04-02T08:00:00.002-05:00

The responses to the interview questions may not represent the views of The Echo Boom Bomb's author. These interviews are provided to inform readers of information from experts and provide these experts with a medium where they can answer questions without any content changes. All linked material to products in interviews such as books or videos are affiliated with the supported platforms, such as Amazon or others. To see the full list of interviews related to Echo Boomers, iGenZ or Automons, see the ending acknowledgements on this post.

After interviewing a non-social media user, Mark the Plumber On Success, Work and Early Retirement, I decided to interview a few people I know who do not use social media at all. All of the people in this series are Echo Boomers who've chosen to stay off social media and in some cases (like Jason), avoid using the internet. While the majority of Echo Boomers use social media (over 90% use at least 1 social media platform) and almost all Echo Boomers use the internet (over 97%), some exceptions exist. I know a few Echo Boomers who have no social media and even fewer who don't use the internet (or seldom use the internet). This interview series highlights these.

The Series

Background

I met Jason while taking a road trip to Miami with some friends over a decade ago. My friends and I made a few stops along the way, one city where we met Jason (kept private because he's relatively well-known there for what he does). Because none of us were in a rush to Miami, we asked Jason for some recommendations the next day to see in his city and all became good friends. At the time, Jason stood out to us because he didn't have a Facebook account (rare in those days, though this has become more common). He also gave us his landline phone because he didn't have a cell phone. At the time, texting wasn't as big as it is now, but even then, more people had been getting cell phones.

Jason's story is fascinating because he has lived one observation I made about how Echo Boomers perceive value in that Jason defined and lived by his own values regardless of what others did. Jason has an individual view of value while most Echo Boomers (as I noted) get their values from what other people are doing.

I also find this discussion fascinating because it highlights how much time all of us internet natives have lost without thinking about the time we've lost.

We all continue to meet up at least annually as part of a private group.

Interview notes. Jason read this interview prior to each question and answer being posted, as the only edits may be the way questions are answered and some words and word choices. In addition, because Jason and I stay in touch, I've added some questions to this interview over time that I find fascinating and worth knowing from him given his life experience.

Had To Ask...

You've been a bartender for almost two decades in the same city. For Echo Boomers, that's extremely rare. What's your story here and what made you choose your city, as it's not a place that a lot of Echo Boomers live?

I wanted success with girls and I paid for a pick-up artist to teach me. One thing that he said when he taught our class is that you have to go where the girls are. I didn't know what that meant, but that weekend, we went out to bars and clubs and met girls. I noticed how many attractive girls were at bars and clubs.

I connected the dots in my mind - attractive girls come to bars and clubs to have fun. Bartenders make drinks for everyone and also talk with people. Pickup artists talk about social proof and to me, a bartender has social proof in a bar or club.

Of course, there's a professional side to all of this as well that I didn't think about early on. Things like how do you get a job in the first place? How do you get to be a bartender at the best spot in town? Things like that. But I didn't focus on that stuff at first and that helped me when I think about it because it's too easy to over analyze what you're doing and do nothing.

That's very common with Echo Boomers.

I'm the same. I've made that mistake before. So I stuck to learning bartending and getting my license. I worked at a few bars part time as a waiter before finally getting the opportunity. After I gained a few years of experience, I had a better idea of how to connect with people, so I was able to get to a bar near the beach.

As for how I chose the city, it was more of what I was trying to avoid at the beginning. I wanted to be a bartender at a beach town. But places like Miami attract a lot of tourists who are wealthy. These actually don't make great girls to meet, unless you have money or something that appeals to them. I hear guys say things like "high maintenance" or whatever, but what I noticed is that those girls weren't after some temporary fun or adventure. It's hard to describe, but there's definitely a class thing going on in attraction there.

I moved to a smaller town because it actually had better waiter opportunities, which I was going to use to become a bartender. This originally wasn't permanent, but what changed my mind was our town is more affordable to average people - including attractive girls who don't have a lot of money, but want to visit a beach on their vacation. What I noticed is that we get fewer tourists, but I didn't have the trouble with the tourists that I met in places like Miami.

I guess the way to put it is, you meet tens of thousands of tourists in Miami, but only get to have fun with ten or so because they're very high class. In my beach town, you may only get a few thousand tourists for the year, but I get to have fun with thirty or forty new girls a year because they're more down to Earth.

So you wanted to balance meeting new girls with a getting a favorable result.

Yes. I know you're aware of the red pill community and I've met quite a guys at the bar over the years who say that they're a part of it. They talk about this concept of women trading or marrying up, there's a term for it.

Hypergamy.

Yeah. There's some truth to that, but it's much more dependent on where than they like to admit. A girl who visits Miami is going to have very different standards than a girl who visits my city. The girls with money or the girls who want to meet someone with a lot of money are going to Miami. The girls who come to my city want to have fun. This applies to where people live too. Large cities attract a type of person while smaller cities also attract a type of person. It's a filter.

That's an interesting observation about Miami. In the times I've been there, it has a feel of being very "live in the right place, know the right people." And that's common in cities like Miami, New York, Dallas, LA, etc. Shifting to your reason why - meeting girls. You're talking a lot about tourists. Your city is much smaller than the Miami metroplex, why wasn't that a concern for meeting girls in your city?

Meeting local girls can backfire. I've seen this a lot. It's not a problem if you want to date for a long term relationship like marriage. But if you want to have fun? No. You can get a reputation fast and then it starts to work against you. This is where I disagree with the red pill guys. The player vibe may be attractive to some girls when they're younger, but it backfires hard as you get older. Generations also change over time and I've seen this as I get older. You want to be extremely careful about your local reputation.

This may not matter in a big city, but it does matter in cities like mine. Also, the dumb guys giving dating advice often hop from city to city. They don't realize what I'm saying here because they're rarely in the same city for long. If you've lived in a city as long as I have [about two decades] then you see how behavior plays out over time. When I moved here, I could immediately tell this because people would talk about others based on their reputation. This matters a lot in a city like mine.

It's funny that so many guys take dating advice from guys who hop from city to city.

And in a city like this, reputation is everything. The longer you've been in a place, the more you have a reputation even if you don't realize this. People talk. But that goes both ways. If people love you, then you have people constantly selling you and this includes people selling you to tourists.

A girl on a vacation wants to have fun. This is what I learned in pickup. When girls travel, they are not looking to meet a boyfriend. Anything that happens is just for fun. It's also temporary. The girl is in the city for a week or two and then she's gone. A girl you hook up with in your city and who decides to start a family there remains there. How she acts toward you when she's single and having fun will be very different than how she acts toward you when she's married with a family and older.

You can't do what I've done in a city that I live in if I was seeing girls who were locals. I've seen guys make this mistake since I've lived here and it backfired in horrible ways.

So, when local girls come to the bar, you simply treat them as a local?

Yes, like I would with friends. And this approach helps in many ways too because local girls can be social proof for you when tourists show up. They know you and feel comfortable flirting, which is only going to be more attractive to female tourists. You're also not a threat to local guys because you're not trying to get with local girls. It's a double win because jealousy hurts popularity, but popularity is attractive. So I'm getting the best of both worlds - I'm popular in my city and successful with tourists.

Notice the value: jealousy hurts popularity, but popularity is attractive. Jason has learned how to achieve popularity without attracting jealousy.

Bartenders can be like local celebrities in smaller cities. They know the people the best too.

We can be, but it can also be very easy to be hated quickly. I knew this other bartender a decade ago from a competitors bar who did the opposite of me - he would try to get with locals. He burned some key bridges and earned a reputation for being [a jerk]. You don't recover from that and if you lose your job and people know why, no one wants to hire you.

Good bartenders have to be likeable people. You won't only get more tips that way, but you'll also be a reason why people come to the bar. The owner, who's owned this bar for decades, loves me because many people come here to see me. They know I can make their favorite drinks. They know I'll come up with a fun game that we can all play. And they know that I remember things about them that make them feel seen. All of this compounds over time, plus makes work a lot of fun. I joke with some of our customers that I have more fun playing the games than them, though they'll insist I'm just saying that.

Do you plan to marry and have kids eventually?

No. I didn't realize until much later how much what happened to my parents impacted my decisions. My parents both worked as manufacturers before the government destroyed those jobs. It sent those jobs to Asian countries and my parents both were casualties. The result was chaos. My parents ended up divorcing. Looking back, I see how that altered my childhood.

For a long time, I believed that I didn't want a serious relationship because of my parents. But as I've gotten older, I couldn't help but wonder why my parents divorced. As a young child, I remember them being happy. When they worked, they had their rough days, but it wasn't anything like when they both lost their jobs.

I've also seen really great men face divorce. You know Ben. He has always been the greatest guy, and yet his wife divorced him. Even more crazy is how much money she ended up getting, even though she's more educated than him and made the choice not to work. That was hardly Ben's doing and Ben is less educated than her.

Yet the system punished Ben and rewarded his ex-wife with free money. A just system would have rewarded Ben and penalized his ex-wife for not working plus being highly educated and not using it. I found out later that she got grant money plus scholarships for her education. She got free money for school, married and chose not to work, then got the legal system to give her more free money.

You don't have this issue when you hook up in situations like mine. Yes, guys who do this in cities where they create a reputation will face blow back possibly, but not guys in my situation.

I don't have anything to offer a girl except an experience. Ben offered a lot - economic opportunity, resources, relationships, you name it. Look at what his ex-wife did to him. I've seen that multiple times and heard it from customers. Guys have a lot going for them and their wife manages to extract all those opportunities for herself. It's crazy too because you tell our group frequently that women in our generation are more educated than men, yet that doesn't seem to be how divorce lawyers see things.

Note:

Some readers may miss an underlying theme in Jason's story. Some of what Jason has lived involved how the system treated his parents. He paid a price for that. We all can't miss that lesson. But there's another lesson we're seeing in Jason's story that I've been cautioning leaders since I started in demographics: the alienation of men. Jason's story mirrors stories that I heard about young men in the Soviet Union before it dissolved. They didn't care about the system because the system didn't care about them.

Jason makes a strong point here that will often get dismissed in the West. Women have done well in the West. Why haven't the laws changed to reflect this? The answer to that question is precisely what I've observed about the system. This is one of many reasons that US males dumped marriage.

Don't confuse the result with the problem that led to the result.

Shifting a bit to your choice not to use the internet, was it simply that you didn't need the internet for your job or was there another reason you decided against using it?

No, I wasted a lot of time on the internet in my early twenties. In fact, I did have a Facebook account for a very brief period. I know, I feel embarrassed.

I think about where I feel like I'm losing time and I've done this since I was a teen-ager. I don't always act on what I find. I've wasted time and kept wasting time. But eventually, I take action.

I never felt good about spending time on the internet. I noticed how it would shift my thinking - and it wasn't good. I also didn't like how people would share information that often didn't relate to me. At least when I spent time on it over a decade ago, I also saw how anything that angered people got more attention. We also saw that during [he-who-cannot-be-named], even if you weren't on the internet. People would bring stuff they read or saw on the internet and yell at others in real life. This happened multiple times at the bar. People would be arguing over something that happened in another part of the world. This is so weird.

It didn't take long for me to realize that the internet added nothing to my life. It did subtract a lot from my life. When you consider that we pay for the internet, that sounds absurd. I'm paying $50 a month to feel bad, plus losing 100 hours per month? That makes no sense.

I treated it like an addiction. I break addictions by making it hard to do them, so I cancelled my internet. I would sometimes take my laptop to the library or a coffee shop, so I got rid of my laptop. I lucked out on the cell phone because if you recall, the cell phones and plans were expensive early on. I couldn't afford those and didn't need one, so I skipped it.

Now, I see that I would have wasted even more time if I had had a cell phone. Plus, I find it odd how people can be having a great day, then look at something on their phone, and now their day is "ruined" to quote them. This has happened multiple times with people at the bar. "My day was going so well, then I saw" and they talk about something on their phone. I'm like, "Why don't you stop using technology that's ruining your days? How many ruined days before you see that the cost of that thing isn't worth what you get out of it?"

It's not always negative either. We have some customers who will start talking to their phones at the bar. To me, this just looks weird because they'll be saying things about how their life is so interesting, yet they're really just this person sitting alone at a bar talking to their phone. When I talk with them, they'll mention that they have thousands or millions of viewers. I get that they're showing off to their viewers, but it just looks weird to an outside viewer. But some of these people make good money doing it and their viewers get the benefit of living vicariously through others rather than living their own life, so there's benefit to them having a phone that allows that.

That's interesting because it's hard to imagine not having a cell phone - and I am guilty of this. Like I start to think about, "What would I do if I had a flat tire?" or something. But then, I used to live in a world where I didn't have a cell phone and I just had to adapt to the situation.

I think that's why I lucked with the pricing being high. I can see how having a cell phone over time would have made it feel impossible to not have one. But for me, when I see how many people get upset over something they see, I can't imagine having a constant source of negativity around me. It even feels weird that more people don't notice that about their phones.

But my job also doesn't require that I have one. I know a lot of people, especially executives, who must have a cell phone. The same with the internet. They have to constantly have access.

A little unrelated to phones and the internet, how have you been able to do the same thing for the past few decades without worrying about things like inflation, healthcare, or other costs? I know from talking with you over the years that you're one of the few Echo Boomer who doesn't have a "side-hustle" and you don't value materialism or money like others.

Bartending doesn't pay a lot, though the tips can be really good. But for me, it's also not stressful. From what I can tell, stress costs.

Another thing, I don't need to have fun after work because I'm having fun. When I was younger, I'd try to see two or three new girls a week. That was a lot of fun, but it also didn't come with big costs. Now, I'm okay if it's one every other week because this is less important than it was.

I didn't understand it at the time when my mom used to tell me that while the dollar benefits the government, destroyed communities end up with their own currency as they rebuild. I know you've travelled through the US and you've seen the abandoned places like I have. Some of those places have their own currency now. They'll never return to a centralized system because of the costs. My mom was kind of an example of that when she was alive. She worked manufacturing and the government destroyed her job by sending it to Asia. I see the same pattern with some of my IT friends who are watching their jobs get outsourced to cheap Asian countries.

That's the big thing I've shared with our group. "You gotta shut up." A lot of people have made their life more difficult by oversharing with the world. I've met tourists who worked in government come to this bar and tell me how they helped craft regulation from reading stuff on social media. When I asked them about this, I learned that a lot of these people don't really understand how life works in small towns. So they create arbitrary rules for these jurisdictions. But where do they get the ideas? People who go around bragging about their success. There's thousands of ways to beat inflation, but if inflation is a secret tax as I keep hearing, do you think policy makers want you to beat it? So a person does well with something, brags on social media, then a policy maker creates a new law.

I'll pause for a second to really hammer your point home because I've heard similar accusations about inflation. Because I'm a data guy, I assume inflation measurements involve people not grasping how to measure nuance. But I've also heard similar accusations like you say - it's a hidden or secret tax. Or inflation is another tax that most people just don't notice. Let's assume that people actually believe this. Why are they then sharing information and posting about it publicly about how to get around it if they believe this? That's inconsistent. I can't vouch for what policy makers think because I don't know many personally, but policy makers can read what you post online.

It does not serve you to overshare. This isn't only true with policy makers too. I've seen people get jealous of their friends when they overshare.

Have you ever heard the expression crabs in a barrel? It's a common observation that people will sometimes try to block someone in their community from success above what they could get. The analogy goes something like a crab tries to escape from a barrel, but the other crabs pull him back into the barrel. People can be like this and that is part of human nature. But let's be honest that part of it is our fault for oversharing!

Note:

First, Jason recognizes that silence is golden. Notice how this is the opposite of Echo Boomers who post everything they know and do online. What do people think "silence is golden" means? You can't ask the internet because you won't find one correct answer to this question (test it for yourself).

Finally, people tend to think of money as currency, but what Jason has noted here reflects his view of value. As I've shared, Echo Boomers determine value on the basis of what other people say. Thus an Echo Boomer's view on an exchange of value is whatever everyone else believes.

I faced a related challenge with people using what I shared for a discussion that I wasn't included [The Echo Boom Bomb]. I don't know what was the result of that discussion, but the person showed me the slides. It did make me wonder about what I was communicating along with how readers were taking it. We all can forget that writing should be reflective. What differs from writing than any other content creation is the thought that goes into writing, not the reaction. That's an important nuance that I overlook sometimes and highlights why reading is one of the best ways to exercise critical thought. I'm criticizing myself here too: maybe I should be careful about observations I see. I've definitely cut back, but this took some peculiar experiences to realize effects.

Back to money, I take it you don't have retirement accounts then?

No, but it's funny you ask. The other night, this guy came in to the bar who said he had millions saved in retirement, but was venting about it. I was a little stunned because I was like, "That's awesome - you're a millionaire and you can't be taxed on any of it." He went on a rant about how the government would probably end up finding a way to tax his accounts. He said the government was always trying to find new arbitrary laws to use on people, like we just discussed.

I don't understand all the details of how retirement accounts work outside of the tax free stuff, but I kept thinking, "This guy seems worried even though he has millions." I've never met a person with a retirement account who I envied or thought was living a great life. I'm living a life that I want. People like him sound miserable, yet they have millions. I guess I don't get it, but I feel like people get money and then worry all the time about their money. There's also this feeling of delay when I talk to them too. Like they're putting aside money for something, but that something is unclear. Like what is retirement? I love asking that question at the bar and it's clear that a lot of people have put thought and money into an account, but not what they mean by retirement.

I don't fear losing something I don't have a lot of. Plus, I watched my parents get destroyed by the government when I was a kid and my mom often shared stories about what they did. In my mom's words, "the system stole." The system can't steal from someone who has nothing. I'll never trust the government or anything they propose. I think a lot of people forget that a system willing to steal from other people will eventually be fine with stealing from you, if my mom is correct about theft.

Some of what you said highlights a mistake that I made when studying Echo Boomers in the past. I felt disturbed that Echo Boomers had little saved for retirement, but like your story, I wasn't thinking about whether the Echo Boomers were enjoying their present life and the value of that. For instance, my mom retired and died less than two years from retirement. She finally got to "live her dream life" and she died quickly after doing so. She also died over two decades earlier than her life expectancy. That won't happen to you. You are living the life that you want to live. You'll probably live to 100 too!

Oh man, I hope not. I don't think I could be a bartender after 60, though I have an uncle who still welds for some professional projects at 80, so maybe so. I've thought more this past year about what I can do when I'm older, but I want to be doing something and I'm going to have to because there isn't anything I have to fall back on. I'll have to adapt to the situation. But that beats spending all my time worrying about what happens to my money.

The whole retirement accounts and plans sound weird. "I now have enough money to do whatever I want." Great! So what do they do? Something they could have made money doing in the first place. Maybe I'm not thinking about it right, but that sounds backwards.

To take the opposite side of what you're saying, societies are built on sacrifice. A civilization has no future if everyone chases their passion. That's been one of the most contrarian things to say since I started in demographics, but it's true. However, you provide an example of the common warnings that incentives drive behavior and you can't win against someone with nothing to lose. You saw your parents lose, like I saw my parents lose, even though they were playing by the rules. That's perverse incentives. You, like many Echo Boomers, don't trust the system so you don't invest in the system.

That happened during [he-who-cannot-be-named]. Leaders destroyed people who had spent decades of their life starting and managing their own business. I am so lucky because our town survives from tourism and we knew that if we complied with all of the nonsense, we'd sink our city. That didn't happen and many of the businesses here survived because we stayed open. But more importantly, our community realized what the system was willing to do. We also learned that people would follow the system even when they would privately disagree. That moment was a wake-up call for our city. We saw what happened to other communities. Some cities have been decimated since that time, almost like poverty over night.

If my mom and dad had been alive when [he-who-cannot-be-named] happened, I think they would say that the system was much worse than even they believed. And they believed it was bad.

Let's shift gears a bit and talk about what you've seen or heard with AI and how it affects bartenders? I struggle a bit with AI personally because I honestly don't think there's any there there, to use a phrase from Gertrude Stein. But you meet people frequently, so what's your experience with it?

I'm the wrong person to ask. I hooked up with this tourst a few months ago who started a conversation at the bar initially because of AI. She complained to me that a lot of guys on her phone were actually using AI. I didn't understand what she meant because that sounds confusing. She showed me a phone exchange where she and a guy were texting. I should add here that she had never met the guy in person. Anyway, she told me the guy's response to her text was fake and I asked how she knew. She showed me this technique that she would use where she would interrupt their conversations with nonsense and the guy would respond normal. But she said it's not the guy responding, but actually an AI. This still confuses me a bit. An AI can type on a phone? She spent a while explaining how the whole things works and it sounds crazy. Ultimately, she knows how to identify if a guy she's chatting with is an AI. Obviously any bartender would be thinking, "The other more practical way would be to actually meet people" but there's something about this generation that doesn't want to hear that.

This guy wouldn't have been able to use an AI in person. In other words, she made a choice to use a tool that wasted her time. After she and I hooked up, the next morning she shared that a lot of guys she would meet on her phone weren't very interesting and often lacked basic social skills. That made me wonder why the guys were using phones to meet girls. From her experience, these guys weren't learning any basic social skills by using their phones to meet girls. But then I wondered why she bothered as well. If you know that you're going to meet people who don't live up to your standard, then stop.

In life, it's extremely easy to set a goal and fail. However, these people have managed to add wasting time to this process. They set a goal, then create as much unnecessary complexity as they can so that when they fail they not only fail, but lose as much time failing in the entire process.

There's a lot of truth to what you're saying. Ultimately dating is about dealing with another person's habits. That may sound unromantic, but it's true. Outside of hook-ups and flings, a person will always regress to their habits in dating. This doesn't matter in short term situations.

Introverts feel happy meeting people on apps because apps are really built for people who haven't grown socially.

And like you're saying, it also trains people to not think about their values. Apps distract people from values. Think about a guy who really values health. He would be better meeting girls at a gym or health food store than any app. He's not using his time well by being on an app. He's also distracted by content that is unrelated to his values and this starts to impact him. Notice that he doesn't have this problem when he uses what he does in life to filter people into his life.

Back to AI, do you fear that AI will replace bartending?

I'm in my position because I'm likeable. Local people come to our bar to hang out and to interact with me and others. Tourists come to our bar through our restaurant since people love it. I frequently hear, "So-and-so said we had to come by and ask for."

AI won't replace any of this because the people who come to bars are social people. Social people like people. Social people do not like AI. Like you said about introverts and apps, we don't get a lot of introverts at the bar or if we do, I can tell they're working on being more social. They always have fun too because when I notice this, I make sure they have a good time.

Keep in mind that technology tools to do what some people are using AI for have existed long before this AI technology, yet social people didn't consult with these tools. An introvert might have asked people on the internet, while an extrovert would call a buddy or two or ask a mentor. You would not believe the number of conversations I've been in where a person shared how inaccurate online information is. I think that part of this is that inaccurate information gets more attention. At least that's what I noticed in my 20s.

Plus, I think that most of us start socializing for the take in an interaction. Over time, we learn to enjoy and appreciate the give. Getting a big tip is nice and I enjoy it. But hearing that I'm the guy someone can open up to and not feel judged at all is even better. Interactions are never the same. This means that we never know what to expect and that makes them enjoyable. The red pill guys get one thing right and that's consistent rewards are boring. That's what makes socializing so much fun. But like you said, to enjoy socializing, you also have to realize that you don't always have great experiences. That's what keeps interactions fun and interesting.

So it sounds like you think that some of the excitement over AI really reflects poor social skills?

When I hear people talk about the positive of AI, it almost always sounds like a take mindset. For example, we had a CEO come into the bar the other day talking about he could fire all his employees and replace them with AI. That's a take mindset. He's paying for his employees. He would like to take their money and replace them with AI. What he doesn't understand is that part of what gives him joy is employing people. That joy gives him meaning, even if he's not mature enough to realize it. He's the kind of CEO that will have 0 people at his funeral because he created a product that no one will eventually be able to afford. He will have made no impact. But he'll have an AI that does everything for him! Maybe his AI will attend his funeral.

Think about what this person believes about people. They exist for him to get something. When you stop and consider that, it's powerful. In his mind, people only exist for him to get something. If a person has nothing to give him, they have no value in his mind. In other words, if this guy could get everything he needed without people, he would be done with all of humanity.

Compare that to another CEO I know who's come to our bar over many years. He owns an oil company. In his many years there, his company has lost a few lives due to explosions. Oil is a dangerous job. However, with some advancements in robotics, a robot can do the dangerous tasks without human life being at risk. This CEO is using AI to prevent hard working people from dying. He understands that an employee giving their life for the company is not good. A robot's end means nothing because a robot is not person. That's a very different CEO. He doesn't look at people as costs. He looks at people as valuable. In fact, I have yet to talk to that guy without him going on about one of his favorite employees, which so far as I can tell, is all of them.

Think about the trajectory of those CEOs. Who would you want to work for? Who would you want to do business with? In my view, my parents frustration at the system was because the policy makers shared the same philosophy of the first CEO. That won't end well for anyone and I doubt it will end well for him.

In the broader sense, you're actually highlighting how the application of a tool is actually what's important. For instance, in high school, I thought the internet would be a great way for people to share information. You could live in any part of the world and access information from people anywhere. I never thought people would use the internet to replace social relationships. Reading information on the internet is not the same thing as creating memories with your children, family or close friends. But as I've gotten older, I realize that how someone uses a tool communicates who they are as a person. Like that CEO who's trying to save lives by having a robot do the dangerous jobs, his use of technology shows that he values people.

Yeah and this is why I don't worry as much about AI as much as other people do. My boss is great and would be the same way, if the restaurant or bar business was dangerous. It's not. And he knows as well as I know that a big part of why our customers come here is the people who work here along with what we offer. We help people create great memories and that's why we're all here.

Are there restaurant owners who will try to replace their employees with AI? Yes. And will that work? I don't know because I may be misunderstanding AI, but I don't see how no one being able to afford anything moves anyone or any business forward. I hear this with people who push AI - it will do all our work. So what are we going to do and how are we going to have money to buy the products AI is creating? I feel like the people who push AI don't understand reality. It's like I mentioned with policy makers who don't actually understand the day-to-day stuff, but they have this view that they can control and influence everything. AI is just the new thing.

In general, do you think technology has actually improved our standard of living? For instance, our generation is technology native, but our generation as I predicted will not and is not currently outliving our parents. This was my most contrarian take when I predicted this and I received a lot of pushback, yet here we are.

Well, since I don't have the internet or a cell phone, I'm probably biased a bit. What I see at the bar and restaurant too is people wasting a lot of life energy. Like I mentioned earlier, people can let something on their phone change their entire attitude, even if what's happening in their life is amazing. I do get a sense that people always think "eventually" things will be better. I don't know if you've felt that, but it seems to be the expression I've heard since I became a bartender, like "times are bad right now, but this is only temporary." How many years is it going to be temporarily bad? Technology has gotten people addicted to wasting time while adopting an eventually mentality that never comes true. Before technology, there were other things that did this same thing I'm sure.

[He-who-cannot-be-named] was really revealing. That's when a few of our friends got rid of their phones because they were shocked by what tech companies were doing. But my take is that if you're an in person person and you stay that way, you'll do good. More now than before, in person people are winning big. I've gotten more reference requests that past few years than ever before. When I ask why, I keep hearing a similar pattern that really is "I don't trust technology." Apparently it's easy to fool someone online, but it's much harder in person.

Plus, I know you say our life expectancy has dropped, but from I hear, the Amish's life expectancy is actually rising. They're not fans of technology. And when you consider that keeps them away from the negativity, that in and of itself may be a life extender.

If someone asked you for what the key is to giving up technology, what's your answer?

You have to value your time and be scared to death of a bad habit over powering you. Otherwise, you won't do it. I hate wasting time, even if I've done some of it in my life. I always felt horrible. You do not get time back ever. You cannot extend your time and you cannot price your time. Your time is limited. When you meet people who feel apathetic about their time, then you've met someone who will go nowhere in their life. You must value your time and you must feel like it's your greatest prize.

It is so easy to avoid a bad habit if you can make yourself deathly afraid of a bad habit's power over you. People always think that because I'm a bartender that I must drink. No. I've never had a drink in my life. Why? Because I've seen how many drunk people lose control and do things or say things they regret. Most people don't do this and most people are social drinkers, plus one new trend is people who don't drink coming to bars just to socialize. But I avoided alcohol because I was always afraid that I would get addicted and wouldn't be able to stop the addiction. This fear is terrifying to me. It's the opposite of our society's encouragement of "overcome your fear." My value is make fear your best friend and exploit it to avoid all the bad things you don't want to do. Make them very, very scary in your mind. Make those bad habits keep you up at night. The more you fear those bad habits, the easier it becomes to stay away from them.

I think fear is great, but it's all about how you use it. I find it odd that people don't fear losing time or they don't fear bad habits over powering them. But they'll go to horror movie or something like that to be told what they should be afraid of? That doesn't make sense.

Finally, I like to get other men's take on this. My own take for young men is all the opportunities are in Asia. But what would you say to young men below the age of 18 living in the United States?

The remaining part of this interview along with the other edited parts are not available at this site.

Notice the Major Theme

Similar to Mark, Jason has defined success in his own mind and lived it. Another early example I linked on this site was Ian, though Ian is on social media. Still notice the theme of these Echo Boomers. They decide what they find valuable. They don't let others' view of value influence their view. Very few people could do what Jason has done (live in the same city two decades, be a bartender without a side hustle, etc). Yet Jason knows his values and lives by his values.

One final point in Jason's story to connect this point. Jason admits that pick-up artists help shaped his thinking about where he was and what he did to meet girls. Yet if you know pick-up artists one of their most common pieces of advice is "Be a man other men envy" as they claim this attracts girls. Yet Jasons did not apply this advice and actually rejects it. He avoids getting other men to envy him because he sees envy as contradicting popularity. Zoom out in this paragraph and see that Jason is applying critical thought in evaluating what is good advice and what is bad advice. He's not following rules, but determining which rules make sense and which are actually bad rules. And as Jason correctly observes, since most pick-up artists hop from city to city, they're too stupid to realize that "Be a man other men envy" is actually terrible advice. (It also might get you killed in some countries.)

Review

2024-03-31T08:00:00.037-05:00

Quick Acknowledgement

A quick thank you to all the people I've spoken to over the past two decades - from the Silent Generation all the way to the AutoMons. It has been an absolute pleasure to meet everyone and hear your life story. I share more details on this thanks in the ending part of this post.

Terminology

Echo Boomer/Millennial/Generation Y 1981 - 1995. The term "echo boom" comes from the demographic observation that Echo Boomers are a massive generation in size, while Generation Y is the title because Echo Boomers follow Generation X. I generally tend to use Echo Boomer as the noun, Millennial as the adjective, and Generation Y as the title when talking about Echo Boomers - these individuals are all the same in terms of people born between 1981 and 1995 (you will see that I sometimes include 1980 in my posts). Unfortunately, I do not always do this consistently, so you will sometimes see Millennials as a noun. However, they are all the same.

iGenZ/Generation Z 1996 - 2010. This is the internet generation that follows Echo Boomers. As a generation they only know of a world with the internet. I call this generation iGenZ for this reason (shortened version of Internet Generation Z). I generally tend to use iGenZ as the noun and Generation Z as the title for this generation - these individuals are all the same in terms of people being born between 1996 and 2010. I do not share most of my research publicly on this generation as my predictions with Echo Boomers were extremely successful and I am replicating that success with iGenZ privately. Unlike Echo Boomers, my research with iGenZ has been global, mostly with Asian iGenZ.

AutoMons/Generation Alpha/Generation A 2011 - 2025. I refer to this generation as AutoMons (The Automation Monoculture Generation), as they were born in a world where significant automation will be the norm - 3d printing, artificial intelligence, etc. They also show early signs of shifting toward social monoculture, which is where I get the Mons in AutoMons.

Reminder

When some people start research, they evaluate data that confirms their theories. As they find data that support that support their theories, they add this data to their research. Data that don't confirm their theories? They exclude this. In addition, they don't look at further details that may explain a pattern. What I've found with this group of researchers is that they'll look only at the surface, as long as the surface of the data they find confirms their theories.

As many long time readers know, I do not research with this approach. I look at what the data show, I investigate what else I may need to collect, and I evaluate if there's missing details or nuance in my data. This is key because I don't have a story that I'm trying to tell ahead of time; if a story exists, I'll let the data communicate that story.

Without diving too deep, I started this research approach early in life for a 4th grade science fair project. I measured how long batteries lasted and included the cost per minute. At the time of the contest, I favored one of the batteries personally because of humorous marketing. That favorite battery of mine didn't last the longest, nor was the best cost per minute. But it didn't matter because I learned to put aside my personal view of things and measure as precisely as possible.

I do the same with my analysis of Echo Boomers, iGenZ and other research. Regardless of how I feel about my generation or my children's generation is irrelevant. What the data show about these generations is not.

What does this mean for readers or prospective clients? It means that you may dislike some of what you read, especially if you are the kind of person who cannot put aside your personal view of the world. The more you're like this, the less likely you'll be able to learn anything from my research. This applies to everything too and you don't want to hire me to work on any project - I may conclude something that you don't want to hear. I've concluded many things that I personally don't want to hear or know - but that's precisely the point of research!

Be honest with yourself about who you are. If you want to know what you want to know as most people do, then find information that confirms what you want to believe. My research will never be for you.

Brief Overview of Research Approach

In the past, I've worked for financial institutions (banking and insurance) where I had both face-to-face or voice-to-voice conversations with people. In the case of phone conversations, I spoke with people throughout the world, though mostly in the coastal United States of America. In the case of face-to-face conversations, most of these people lived in the city where I resided with a few people being temporary travelers from other places.

Unlike most research, I avoided tracking or retaining any private information about individuals (name, contact information, etc). For an example, in a conversation with a customer, I would categorize them as an iGenZ, Echo Boomer, Generation Xer, Baby Boomer, Generation Silent or older. I rarely met people who didn't fall into one of those categories. While in some cases, institutions allowed us to vet if we were getting good information, as this was key to being able to sell products, in other cases, we could not. I excluded anyone in the my research who I could not confirm was communicating truth. Every researcher faces the challenge of, "Is this person telling the truth" especially if what's being stated it out of the ordinary.

Later, I started the Millennial Pool. At the time, this involved observing what Millennials posted as assertions publicly versus what they would admit to doing later. In other words, I was comparing what was said versus what was done. This also meant that a significant amount of what people may find on social media was eliminated because most of what is asserted isn't true. (As a research note for yourself, compare the people you know, what they post on social media, and what is true. You'll not only notice a theme over time, you'll observe that some sources would be better than others if you were to use them in a study.) A simple example of this would be a Millennial boasting about "owning a home" and "I bought my first home at 21", but later complaining at the rising cost of rent and how this is going to prevent him from every owning a home. Yes, in a world of people bragging along with posting every detail of their life, these contradictions existed. That "gap" in data was what I found useful in research, not anything people posted.

In the same manner as I advised in The Next Billion Dollar Idea, once I had the conclusions I needed, I kept the conclusions in summaries and eliminated any data. One big point that people missed early on: Echo Boomers and iGenZ may think and do one thing when younger, but this won't always be true as they age. "Data relevancy" will be corrupted if you keep irrelevant data in your data sets.

Finally, I conceded early on that with people, no data set will ever be perfect. The best a researcher can do is make short, medium and long term predictions and evaluate how the short term predictions age. If he's right on the short term predictions, he may have the theme of the data correct, which increases the probability that the long term predictions will be correct.

Millennial Financial Data (As Of 2011)

A brief reminder of the Echo Boomer financial data I had collected up to 2011:

Millennial Income (Media Figures)

Millennial median household income: $58,620
Millennial median individual income: $22,000

Note that my research differed a little for households (the figure was slightly higher). However, I have defaulted to media studies at the time (noted here because there wasn't a statistically significant difference. Also, my major focus didn't start with income, as income can fluctuate and doesn't paint as accurate of a picture in my view than assets and liabilities. As one of my mentors said about business one time: the cashflow of a business for a particular year says very little about the company compared to the assets and liabilities of the same company over time.)

Percent of Echo Boomers Who...

Own their home: 10.4%
Had non-retirement savings: 32.2%
Had retirement savings: 24.5%
Had student loan debt: 32.4%
Had credit card debt: 34.9%
Had other debt (excluding student loans and credit cards): 29.2%

Median (And Mean) Financial Numbers

Non retirement savings: $0.00 (mean $1,679.8)
Retirement savings: $0.00 (mean $1,577.5)
Student loan debt: $0.00 (mean $6,274.7)
Credit card debt: $0.00 (mean $1,400.7)
Other debt (excluding student loans and credit cards): $0.00 (mean $3,425.3)

People frequently confuse median (the exact 50% point of a data set) and mean (heavily influenced by outliers). Thought leaders were often surprised by the student loan numbers from 2011, but I remind people frequently that over half of Echo Boomers did not graduate college. I've also cautioned people (albeit later) on being precise with population definitions - I suggest you watch that video if you want to know more details about defining populations (notice that video covered data that went through 2012).

Millennial Top 5 Financial Goals

Save money (16.9%)
Pay off debt (14.4%)
Buy a home (13.4%)
Go to or continue higher education (12.9%)
Be financially stable (10.9%)

Unlike most polling, I let Echo Boomers tell me any of their financial goals. They could say anything. While I grouped some themes (ie: saving for house as a goal meant that the person's goal was to buy a house). Two of the biggest losers? Anything related to marriage, such as save for a wedding, honeymoon, get married, etc (0.5%) and buy a car (2.5%).

Prediction: Education Bubble and Regret

I predicted that at least 25% of Echo Boomers would regret attending college and cautioned that Echo Boomers' stories about attending college might someday mirror what we heard during the housing bubble. At the time of this prediction, former Generations such as the Silent Generation, Baby Boomers and Generation X had less than 5% of their generational members regret attending college, so I had a lot of people argue that I was predicting a big shift. However, as of my research over the years of 2021 and 2022, 37% of Echo Boomers have told me that they regretted attending college. Let me repeat a point I made which we are now seeing:

The perception of education changes. Echo Boomers were inculcated with "get a degree" messages from everywhere. As Echo Boomers mature and make less money than they expected, they will communicate their disappointment with education to the next generation. Unless Echo Boomers look back on education with rose color glasses, the next generation will hold a different outlook on education than their parents.

In addition to the 37% of Echo Boomers who regret attending college, I found that almost one-third (33%) of Echo Boomers report being underemployed with a degree. Undermployment in this context either means they have a degree and no job or they have a degree but are only finding part time or internship work. On a related point here, the only educational path that is not in an education bubble (still!) is medicine.

Humorous Prediction: The Education Bubble Popped First

I write this tongue-and-cheek: my humorous prediction about the education bubble popping first is true. In addition to a decline in college enrollments, universities are closing in the United States at a pace of one a week. Tattoos are still popular, though one of the fastest growing industries by percent is tattoo removals. The tattoo bubble hasn't popped yet, but it's coming.

Note that I wrote both the original prediction post in jest, as well as this follow-up section. The tattoo industry, like the tattoo removal industry, fascinates me because of how similar both industries are to The Sneetches by Dr. Seuss, even though his work is entirely fiction!

Prediction: Healthcare

In the post Med School Blows Past the Education Bubble I remarked that medical school would blow past most college degrees since medical school was in a shortage and other degrees were not. This has held correct and in fact, medical wages have significantly outpaced other industries. Some doctors are now making more money than CEOs of medium to large sized companies - it's almost insane to see these wages until you realize the shortage in medicine. I also noted in the past that the USA graduates almost as many lawyers as doctors and lawyers keep trying to add complexity to the system, which has only increased costs. Finally, the anti-male sentiment in the USA has caught up with the country. Hard working young men do not enter medical school, nor want to (recall I noted this would the effects of some policies being put in place). American college haved earned the reputation of being "anti-male hate spaces" among young American men. While I don't agree with their sentiment, these institutions have certainly supported policies that have made them less appealing to young men.

Not only did my post age well in terms of how much money doctors make, it aged extremely well when you look at life expectancies of Americans: it's plummeting. Americans are dying faster and their healthcare costs are skyrocketing. I did warn you it was coming! Even the American Medical Association is forced to agree with what I cautioned (and note too that they're even talking about the extreme bureaucracy with examples such as "Physicians today, on average, spend about two hours on paperwork for every one hour we spend with patients").

Compared to Generation X, the Millennial generation has a higher suicide rate for both men and women when evaluating age-by-age comparisons of previous generations. As a generation, the data show that US born Echo Boomers will not outlive their parents.

(The negative sentiment against young men of American colleges has been a mixed bag of suffering and blessings for American parents. American parents who sent their sons to American colleges paid a price - and it wasn't only a high financial price. However, American parents with sons who sent their kids to non-American colleges had the opposite experience. Of the parents who sent their sons overseas for education, they spent 3-5% of what the American college students paid in full - meaning that a $80,000 a 4-year degree program overseas would cost around $4,000. But there was an added benefit: the education was better overall and by graduating in those countries, these young men were able to start their business and work life there.)

Prediction: Millennial Women Will Make More Money

I predicted that Millennial women would make more money than Millennial men and this has held true as of my recent analysis in 2021. Some quick points on how I compared these differences: identical data points were compared (ie: comparing a female sales manager with 10 years of experience, a bachelor's degree and working in the same area as a male sales manager with 10 years of experience and a bachelor's degree), married Echo Boomers were deducted (see below point), and only data points that exist within a single context - for instance, if a Millennial male worked 3 jobs versus a Millennial female who worked 1, that's not the same context.

Summary of 2021 findings:

When comparing non-Married Millennial males and females using ceteris paribus factors, Millennial females make approximately 8% more than Millennial males.
Millennial males are more likely to work multiple jobs, but also more likely to not work at all - the bell curve is very broad when looking at work for Millennial men compared with Millennial females.
Over 32% of Echo Boomers own a home, most of this group is married/coupled Echo Boomers. In 2011, only 11% of Echo Boomers owned a home.
The 15% subset of Millennial males have done what I predicted in private discussions with financial executives. Those of you who attended those presentations should continue the suggestions. I do not and will not share pubicly these predictions, as I am continuing to invest in this area.

As a general point on why married Echo Boomers were excluded (and should be): in many married couples, one person will work more while the other may work either less or not at all "officially" - this latter point being important.

Consider that a married partner who does not work still can add significant value by extending the value of the income of their partner. For an example, a stay-at-home wife may be able to leverage her husband's income by taking advantage of opportunities and sales that people who work regularly cannot take advantage of, such as buying toilet paper cheaply before the shortage in 2020.

It is actually very common for single income households to have a partner who leverages their partner's income; this matters in situations where there is an income tax, as tax authorities cannot take advantage of someone who extends an income by purchasing more value than standard. For this reason, comparing income of married people is unreasonable because we'd also have to evaluate how the other partner is possibly extending that income. That's more difficult to do in research and it outside the scope of my prediction that Millennial women would make more than Millennial men (which they did) when we consider a ceteris paribus context.

Prediction: Millennial Marriage Rate

I predicted that 33-40% of Echo Boomers would never marry. In 2011, only 22% of Echo Boomers had married. As of 2021, only 48% of Echo Boomers were married. Based on 2021's data, I expect that 67-70% of Echo Boomers will marry (higher than initially expected). A big part of this slight upshift is that more Echo Boomers have committed suicide than I expected (and at earlier ages) and their life expectancies are dropping faster than their parents, which will lower the never married population, as never marrieds tend to belong to both of these groups.

As I noted when speaking at events, a low marriage rate would mean the following:

A shortage of housing, as more single Echo Boomers means there's an increased need for housing, apartments, townhomes, etc.
Declining individual productivity. An old idiom goes that society is built on the back of married men. This is true, as married men produce significantly more economic output than every other demographic group. A decline in married men means a decline in productive output. Healthcare is a big industry that's seen an absolute collapse in male labor, especially male labor working extra hours (men are much more likely to work more hours).
Increased and rising crime. Married people commit fewer crimes and are more likely to vote on policies that keep their family safe (anti-criminal policies). In addition, children raised without two parents are statistically more likely to be criminals.

This pattern has not applied to the young men who've left the United States (see next point). Of those men in 2021, over 77% of them are married (vs 48% of US men).

One American mother described it best with her son, "I kept thinking that I had done something wrong with my son because he couldn't get a date in high school. Then he moved to China for college and married a Chinese girl three years later. It was the culture, not how I raised him!"

Observation: Ambitious Young Men Leave the United States

In the past, I observed that approximately 12-18% of young male Echo Boomers had planned to and left the United States. The most well-known example of this is none other than Nomad Capitalist (started by Andrew Henderson), who also ended up turning moving out of the United States into a business. In speaking with both him and others like him early, their biggest customers were young male Echo Boomers.

(I frequently tell thought leaders to read his thoughts about MGTOW, dating and the US versus non-US culture. If you investigate his thoughts and what he's telling young men, then you start to realize what the culture of the United States has been communicating to young men.)

Now, iGenZ has also joined. Ambitious young men in both generations have left. In addition, many business ideas have also exited the United States completely. I'll note here that this isn't only due to the sentiment towards young men, but also an increase in bureaucracy. For instance, I had a business solution for healthcare that would reduce standard healthcare visit costs by 90%.

I initially reached out to US firms about this - people would see a huge reduction in their healthcare costs, plus I worked with a team to think about scaling this solution in other medical disciplines. I was wrong. Our idea would have needed anywhere from $2-5 billion to start because of all the bureaucracy we would have to comply plus competitors would be attacking us from all sides.

The United States had no interest in this solution at all, nor did companies want it. Meanwhile, some companies within countries out of Asia reached out for this solution.

This also attracts young men as well, as we all work for a purpose. Young men want to solve problems. Asia is providing huge opportunities and continues to be a destination that many ambitious young men aim to gain citizenship. I've noticed how the industry helping young men gain citizenship in Asian countries has grown rapidly.

Prediction: The United States Becomes Socialist

While easy to overlook at the time, my prediction that Generation Y's lack of respect for privacy would push them into socialism has aged well. In fact, my exact words were:

As to how this all plays out in the long run, see the Eastern Bloc and Soviet Union from history.

In general, socialist societies are built upon the framework mentioned in the post - "value is perceived as a concept determined solely by others." Socialism like it's result (communism) relies on centralization through controlling concepts of value toward the community. Value is determined by the community (others), not the individual. What people consistently miss about capitalism is that both the producer and consumer in a capitalist society determine value as individuals. People often mis-assume that it's only the consumer who does this; they forget that a producers also choose what products they want to create.

Social media has further extended this beyond even what I predicted at the time. Last year, my girlfriend showed me a viral clip of a person on social media violating private property. But that wasn't what she said about the video. She felt enraged by the property owner who had certain values. The person in the video violated the property owner's private property, yet many Echo Boomers and iGenZ (my girlfriend is iGenZ) see this as acceptable. Outside of a few comments, most people viewed the behavior of the video recorder as acceptable, even though he violated the private property of a property owner.

The United States is not a capitalist country. Capitalist countries enforce private property.

People are slowly seeing this now. I find it peculiar (and funny) that these leaders didn't see this developing a decade ago with this generation. This was always inevitable.

Prediction: Products

Electric cars. As I predicted with Tesla, electric cars have been extremely popular with Echo Boomers, especially since Millennial attitudes toward environmentally friendly companies is positive. I expect that this trend will continue and as electric cars become even more affordable, for their use to spread. Echo Boomers have never forgotten the pain they felt at $4 a gallon gas back in 2008 when oil was over $150 West Texas Intermediate. To this day, oil prices have never risen that high even though actual oil resources are declining. The only surprise here is that some of the competitors to Tesla have done poor in their electric car production.

Energy drinks. As I predicted, supplements did well with single male Echo Boomers, especially the more active Echo Boomers. One suggestion I made early given the success with Red Bull was that energy drinks should broaden their appeal to single male Echo Boomers and this has paid off for the ones who followed this. Energy drinks have become a huge market and they've been able to attract many male consumers outside of the fitness industry (Monster Beverage being a great example of one that does this with blue collar male Echo Boomers and Celsius Holdings being a great example of one that does this with white collar male Echo Boomers).

Survivalism takes off in 2024. The survivalist industry has done well since I published that post, though it was very niche. This year, the interest in the industry has absolutely exploded - some of the private startups in the industry are making $1+ million a weekend teaching survivalist skills to the exceptionally wealthy. This isn't only the skills either; the industry has seen an explosion in interest in the actual goods that makeup the industry. This is one of the hottest industries in 2024 that still is flying below the radar.

App Dating. As I've long advised with companies, when appealing to Millennial females, details and the shopping experience matter. The popular dating apps that exploded in popularity followed this advice. The experience felt like shopping for dates and the apps encouraged that users would add key details that single female Echo Boomers wanted to know. Also, I advised some of the companies to track how Millennial females used the apps, such as where they would look and how much time they would spend on certain areas of the app because these are key to improving the shopping experience. While the female Echo Boomers didn't pay as much as the male Echo Boomers, female Echo Boomers were key for dating apps as the male Echo Boomers wouldn't pay for the app if there were no females (gay dating apps being exceptions to this point). Another related appeal to dating apps and why they've been so popular with Echo Boomers is that Echo Boomers prefer self-esteem boosts over money and sex and dating apps provide female Echo Boomers with a self-esteem boost, even if they don't act on it. I still laugh when I hear people say that they don't understand why so many Echo Boomers are single with years of using dating apps because it shows how people understand the why of the app use.

Acknowledgement

Some specific appreciate to all the people I've interviewed over the years when doing research along with links to the interviews:

Also, thank you to the other people I've interviewed about various health topics - Dr. Dan Eisenberg , Dr. Catherine Shanahan , Tom Naughton, Dr. Layne Norton, Christine Cronau, Dr. Lindsey Mathews, and Jessica Setnick.

Other Archived Posts:

Other Research

I continue to speak about Echo Boomers, iGenZ and AutoMons from time-to-time depending on the project.

If you are a researcher or work for a central bank, you can reach out about my Golden Sources research, which is research that I've been doing as a curiosity of mine for near two decades. Recently, this research has allowed me to also test data theories with various AI applications, such as large language models.

A Final Word of Gratitude

Thank you to all the people I've met over the years, as I've done research. The people I've met and interviewed, the people I've worked with on various studies, even the people in the studies themselves. To me there is nothing more exciting than hearing a person's story - it's more of an adventure than traveling to the coolest places. Thank you for sharing your life with me. I have been extremely careful to avoid ever storing identifiable information and looking only at patterns in a big picture sense because fundamentally I respect what you as an individual are willing to share publicly under your name. The biggest takeaway to any research is how people are the greatest work of art.

If you need help with research, you can reach out to my research firm, SqlinSix.

Mark the Plumber On Success, Work and Early Retirement

2024-03-18T06:00:00.027-05:00

Background

A few years ago, I visited a store to search for an answer to my clogged drain. I ran into Mark, who became an instant friend and we've stayed connected since then. Mark had already retired from being a plumber and is one of the few Millennials I ever met who dropped out of high school.

One big difference with Mark that I shared with him was that he had much lower self-esteem than the average Millennial (a generation who were raised to think they were special). This actually worked to his advantage as you'll read and he and I both agree that his story shows that high self-esteem has little to do with success. Mark is a great guy, but he's not on social media because he doesn't think his life is that interesting to be on it. I love the self-honesty!

Interview notes. Mark read this interview prior to each question and answer being posted, as the only edits may be the way questions are answered and some words and word choices. In addition, because Mark and I stay in touch, I've added some questions to this interview over time that I find fascinating and worth knowing from him given his life experience.

Had To Ask...

While many Millennials piled into college (about 40-45%), you dropped out of high school during your freshman year and became a plumber. When we first met, your story differed significantly from many Millennials. What made you decide to drop out of high school and become a plumber?

I'm the dumber kid of my family. My brothers and sisters are much smarter than I am. My mom made sure that I knew this growing up. She used to tell me all the time that I wasn't going to add up to much because I learned really slow. I would read for five minutes and get bored and I really struggled with memorization. I could repeat something a hundred times and still not remember it. Some of it is that my mom is right and I am kind of slow when it comes to information. Some of it is also I hate learning stuff I don't use. I still don't know why I had to learn how to diagram a sentence. I have never used that and will never use that. I almost feel like school was killing time.

Before my freshman year, my friend's dad was a plumber and ran his own business. I wanted to learn so I asked if he could teach me and I'd be willing to do whatever. He was more than willing to teach me and he even started paying me for helping with his projects. My freshman year of high school continued to bore me so I had to decide between continuing to learn things I didn't want to know or make money that I could use. I saw immediate use for the money I was making, but I still don't know why I had to learn all the nonsense in school. So I dropped out. At the time, my mom used it as proof that I would never make it in life. She even told me that I would eventually realize that I had made the wrong choice. I didn't care because school was so boring and to this day, I don't regret it because I don't see how people who went to finished high school and went to college made a better choice than I did.

We've overvalued education to a point that it's become oversaturated. Historically, many kids would have been done with education at 12 and started working. Once you dropped out of high school, how were you able to manage working while your mom didn't approve?

I kind of lucked out the first year because my mom enjoyed telling me I was dumb and it stopped there. Since my friend's dad lived in our neighborhood, I worked as much as I could. I managed to make a good amount of money my first year but the real success was the experience I gained. I tried learning everything I could and it paid off big. By the end of my first year, I was able to take on challenging commercial projects - those are where we make good money. He would show me how he worked on a problem and I would jump on it. I kept feeling like the more I could do, the more I could make.

That's when my mom tried getting in the way and stopping me from continuing. Looking back, it's clear to me that she got angry when I started to out-earn her plus some of her friends were making comments about her having a high school dropout. She didn't like that and she tried to force me to go back to school. I was going to return to school and the situation got really bad. At one point, she physically attacked me to where it became noticeable to everyone. At least my mom realized that she crossed a line, but my friend's dad stepped in at that point and I was able to live with him. I planned to move out as soon as I could, but he was great because he told me that it made more sense to live with them until I was ready to be on my own. That allowed me to save a lot of money. To this day, I am grateful to him because he is the biggest reason for my success and he thinks I've alwasy been an amazing worker.

Mentors are key. Plus, you were able to work when Millennials were in high school and then some Millennials went to college. They were delaying pay while you were earning it. How were you able to eventually go into business for yourself?

I worked under my friend's dad for about seven years and would take on as many project as possible. He paid me extremely well, but we had very few plumbers in our area and few wanted to become a plumber, so the abundance of work allowed him to retire early. He wanted more freedom to travel, so his final year, he taught me more about the business, marketing and tax side of things. In thinking about it now, it's funny how I learned all this information about managing money for taxes, inventory and other related expenses, but we never discussed this stuff in school. It's so weird. What do people even do with all the stuff they learn in school? I still don't know. Like, when am I going to diagram a sentence as an adult?

After that, I was one of the few plumbers in the area and the demand was crazy. There was more projects than I had time. I tried hiring others, but what a nightmare! You and I have talked about this, but Millennials have no work ethic. They would get hired, work the first day, then call in sick and I wouldn't hear from them after a week. It was crazy. What's odd is that many of them would end up working a job that paid less, but it was some desk job. I do not understand someone who wants to get paid to sit around.

I struggled with hiring people for a while and finally gave up and am glad I did. I had to be honest with myself about how much work I could do and would do because I know I wasn't going to have help. I set higher prices and started making money good money plus was able to eliminate the projects that couldn't pay as much as I wanted. I retired before I turned 29, but even now I take some projects that I either enjoy or pay a rate that I'm willing to work. The difference is that instead of working 70-80 hour work weeks, I work about 10 hours a week overall and more important than that is I choose the projects that I want.

That's the part about your story that stuns our Millennial friends the most. They can't believe someone can retire at 29 without being a trust fund kid. I like to point out our friends that about a decade ago, I was speaking at a financial event and I asked the bankers in the room how many of them would be proud if their sons became plumbers or electricians. No one in the audience raised their hand. Yet all of them had used running water and electricity that day! Our generation (and iGenZ too), does not have any concept of what we're actually demanding daily versus what we're saying has value. This is the result - a job that's in a shortage even with high wages.

But you still have people who won't do the work even with high wages. I hired people who quit working and would go work for some other easier job making half the wages. It's like they prefer easy work even if the easy work doesn't pay much. I'll never forget this one guy I hired. He picked up what I taught him pretty quickly. But after a month, he didn't want to do the work anymore and he didn't show up or even call and say that he quit. I ran into him later and he told me he worked doing some security job where he'd sit at a desk all day. He made less than half what I was paying him, but he told me that his job was easier even when I asked him if he would want to come back and work. Most people didn't want to do the work and I discovered that I hated managing people.

Do You See the Theme Here?

Many Echo Boomers want an easy job, not a hard job even if the hard job pays really good wages that allows them freedom at a faster rate than their peers. Longtime readers will recall this pattern I noticed when I wrote "Give Us Facebook Or We'll Take A Lower Paying Job!" Echo Boomers are obssessed with their friends and getting attention from their friends. For these Echo Boomers making a higher income is less important than looking cool to others. This doesn't mean that these Echo Boomers will always think this way, but this early behavior influenced many of their decisions.

(Humorously, this is why you hear Echo Boomers always talk about how "I don't give a **** about what other people think". If a person actually believed this, then they would never state this.

What made me finally stop is I had a friend who was also struggling to hire people and one guy claimed that he was injured on the job and sued. That scared me because he had to go to court over the situation. Hiring people is a job in and of itself and I just didn't have time to do that plus balance work.

I'm lucky because when everyone needs a plumber and there aren't many plumbers, I could simply say no. In hindsight, that was a big part of how I was able to charge high prices and retire early. Even now, I can select the projects I want because there's still a shortage! Plus, I've worked with many people over the years who really value my work and know that I'll do well. Credibility is a big factor in plumbing.

Working in the right field was a big factor in your financial success. Saving money also sounds like it played a huge role in your financial success. What are some other things that played a role in your success?

When you work a lot, you save a lot because you don't have time to spend. Kind of the opposite of our friends who spent a year traveling and spent six figures doing so. I know they had fun, but now they feel like it set them back. I didn't have options like that because I had to work. I have been blessed with some great friends who pointed me to Dave Ramsey, so I was able to invest following his advice. At some point, you have to grow your wealth and I had enough saved early. Working many hours stops a lot of stupid financial decisions so that probably played the biggest role.

I also think in function and I think that helps grow wealth, even if it doesn't get a lot of attention. You and I have talked about how people love things that go up in price - houses, stocks, etc. But you love to say all the time that high price equals high risk unless that high price can be sustained. In addition to your thought, I also think people are forgetting functionality. A home is a place to live, not a hope of a future higher price. Some of the equipment I own serves a valuable function, plus the newer equipment is often poorer in quality because it needs servicing more. Some of my colleagues think this is a conspiracy and I don't, but I do think it shows why considering function in what you buy matters over whether the price will rise.

Now that I'm older, I think being single also did some as well. Plumbing is a mostly male profession and as I've met other plumbers outside my area, I've seen some nasty divorces. My friend's dad ended up going through one himself. To be honest with you, at one point I wanted to marry but I'm glad I never did. Many of my friends who didn't go to college are either divorced or their wives don't respect them at all. That's not to say my educated friends did better - they're just as likely to get divorced, I just know fewer of them.

See the Major Cost?

Mark is actually discussing what I've cautioned organizations about for over a decade. He's referencing the anti-male sentiment in the United States. Look at the cost.

This is a man who's had stable employment, ambition, and success. What kind of father would he have made? But he's not a father. A father with many kids is more likely to work more hours. Who benefits from that extra labor? People.

Meanwhile, you have a significant number of children who've had their dads abandon them. The anti-male sentiment only alienated the ambitious and driven men. Those ambitious men aren't staying in a country with an anti-male sentiment either, which means the cycle repeats. This also foreshadows what will happen with females too, as as college administrator noted to me a few years back that as male enrollments drop, female enrollments start to follow.

This is one of many reasons why I cautioned about US males dumping marriage. I was not warning about marriage rates so much as I was warning about a bigger social phenomena that was far more concerning. Don't confuse the result with the problem that led to the result.

Maybe this bugs me because my mom always thought I was dumb, but I don't enjoy being around people who don't respect me as a person. Even when I've dated girls in the past, they would ask me what I really wanted to do, as if there was something wrong with plumbing. Or I've had girls who asked me if I would go back to school almost like they were saying there's something wrong with not graduating high school.

I've know a few psychologists who claim that women are generally more concerned with other people's perception than men. Education can also make people feel superior in some cases. Given that many Millennial women are highly educated (compared to Millennial men), I am not surprised you saw that pattern.

All of my teachers in high school and junior high were all women and I don't think any of them thought I was very smart. I can remember a few who agreed with my mom in that they thought I was dumb. I don't think I was ever cut out for education because I'm a D or F student at best. I remember one teacher asking me that, "Do you want to be a D student the rest of your life?" But I also don't get what we were even learning most of the time or why I would care. Women seem to enjoy that more too, like all the girls in my class would answer the questions while I was wondering why did anyone care. Trivia bores the heck out of me.

It may be because I work with a lot of men that I don't really value or need to know things I don't need to know, if that makes sense. I can't think of any conversation I've had with other men in my work where random trivia came up. No offense to the men who are educated, but they're the only ones I know who sit around and talk about this stuff. I don't need to know that you can manufacture and ship good easier by the Rhine River than by wherever because I don't work in manufacturing and I don't plan to. It's not important. Men seem to only say what's necessary when I'm working whereas women share lots of details about whatever the situation is.

You highlight a big problem with modern education that's impacting male enrollments in education - missing men. That's part of why education has lost men and I've been warning institutions about this for a while. Men don't see male teachers and assume education isn't for them. I once attended an event at a public high school that had 0 male teachers. In school pictures, over half the students were young men. Regardless, right now the blue collar world is great for men plus it's in high demand. Like you said, no one wants to do physical work anymore so you have little competition. What advice would you suggest for young men interested in blue collar fields?

Honestly, be willing to do the work. That's rare. There's probably a lot of people willing to show you how to do the work, but it's a waste of time to invest in someone who quits after a week or two. I have a lot of respect for people who hire people, but I would never go back to that. I hated it. I did work recently with a young man, but the big reason was that I didn't need to teach him much, I could just tell him what needed to be done and he would do it. That and he was the son of the business owner. Like I said about my friend's lawsuit, I wouldn't hire people because of all the legal stuff. Lawsuits are no joke.

Be enthusiastic about learning new things related to the job. It's so easy to each people something when they're excited about it. My friend's dad told me early on that I was extremely easy to teach because I wanted to learn. For me, I felt like plumbing was my only path to a good life so I had to learn it. I didn't have options. My brothers and sisters are much smarter than I am and have many options to succeed. I didn't! But now that I think about it, if you want to learn and show enthusiasm, you become easy to teach.

Shifting a bit - what do you think about artificial intelligence (AI) and are you seeing it impact your industry since you still do some projects?

You'll have to ask the tech guys about AI. I don't get it. Tech people talk a language that I don't understand. They speak like they're constantly improving the world, yet I haven't seen much improvements. Plumbing equipment is much more expensive than when I started - luckily I saved and purchased a lot of my tools and equipment, as the these have appreciated more than any savings' account did. Health care, as you know, is extremely expensive. Every year, they try to create new things we have to do for business. What's improving? I haven't noticed it, but then, I don't use a lot of technology because all I see are people wasting time while calling themselves productive.

From my "dumb" view, a robot will have to be cheaper than a plumber. People don't have that much money too, so if AI replaces all the jobs, where will people get money to hire a plumber? I already don't do projects that don't pay enough.

I find it hard to believe that robots will be cheap when all my equipment gets more expensive every year. What are these robots made of? Paper? Plumbing isn't as easy as you'd think. The robot has to be able to solve the problem, plus do it at a cheaper rate. I don't see that happening anytime soon because we can negotiate wages, whereas a robot will have a point where it can't do the work and provide a good return to the business.

You're observing the hammer-and-nail pattern of human behavior here. People who don't understand details thinking that their hammer can solve every problem. And related to technology, you're still not on social media, so people can't find you anywhere?

You have to think your life is interesting to be on social media. I honestly don't get that stuff. I'm not a smart guy so anything I have to say or show isn't that interesting. Plus you know this - I'm a flesh-and-blood guy. All of you with your Facebook friends, not for me. People have to be present with me and can't take shortcuts if they want to hang out.

If you ever join, I'll be sure to add your information here. I will note to you that many of the people I interviewed no longer are present on social media or their site. I never really thought the internet had much value outside of sharing information. I still think that. The whole social concept confused me and I think most people will do what you do in the long run, it will just take them longer to do it.

The remaining part of this interview along with the other edited parts are not available at this site.

Millennials Don't Know What Inflation Is, So ...

2013-11-21T08:00:00.012-06:00

Note that this article has been updated to also include some of the private discussions with thought leaders in the past. You can read my final overview of my research into the Millennial generation along with what I predicted and what happened as they matured at this link. While I still speak about Echo Boomers and iGenZ privately, I seldom add new articles to this specific blogspot site. If you're reaching out about a speaking engagement, you can contact me at the research firm SqlinSix.

A recent article suggests that Echo Boomers should oppose Janet Yellen if they want to retire. As a quick reminder, many thought leaders said the same about Obama and his healthcare legislation.

What many of these thought leaders miss is that Echo Boomers trust public authorities, such as government figures, more than private figures. I frequently highlight Enron as an example of why many Echo Boomers distrust private companies. Don't forget that Enron wasn't the only entity in that mess when Echo Boomers hear stories about it.

From the article:

However, by all accounts, the Federal Reserve under her leadership would continue cycles of quantitative easing.

The author goes on to say that QE will make retirement more difficult.

This seems true, yet how many Echo Boomers understand negative interest rates or inflation? Even if they do, how many of them would actually take action?

Even from several financial studies I've conducted, only about 10-15% of Echo Boomers actually know what these economic events and patterns are and would take action on them. The remaining focus more on whether they like the person. Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke are both likeable people.

While I may sound harsh on Echo Boomers here, both Baby Boomers and Generation Xers were the same in the past. As a child at the time, I recall these generations voting against Ross Perot, who was far less likeable than Bush and Clinton. What did many of those Baby Boomers and Generation Xers say a decade (or more later)? "Ross Perot was right and would have made a better president!" But neither of these generations liked him that much at the time. They also held it against him when he dropped out after his daughter was targetted. I've observed that both generations complain about how "nasty" politics has become, yet this pattern influenced their decision. What would Charlie Munger say about incentives?

Research means recognizing uncomfortable truths. One uncomfortable truth is that people prefer likeability even at the cost of their own future success.

Is There A Bitcoin Bubble?

2013-11-14T08:00:00.005-06:00

Bitcoin is tulip mania 2.0 - not gold 2.0, says @PeterSchiff: http://t.co/LbdSaQB5k4
— Jesse Colombo (@TheBubbleBubble) November 13, 2013

I write this post with the assumption that you know a thing or two about bitcoins. If you don't, stop reading.

A few months ago (see the below chart), people declared that the bitcoin bubble had popped because it had reached around $260 a bitcoin and then fell to less than $100 a bitcoin. Except, as of this writing, bitcoin's price exceeds that supposed bubble price. Writers would love to convince you that they know all about bitcoin and why it's bubble (or why it isn't a bubble), but the truth is that they have no idea. Neither do the media. And neither do I. Bitcoin offers an approach to money that, in its conceptual entirety, hasn't ever existed before now. Granted, part of the why here involves the innovation in the digital world.

[Update: dead image]

But let's first consider the major arguments against bitcoin, fostered by these "bitcoin is a bubble type" who only promote this idea.

Why Bitcoin Is A Bubble

Bitcoin fluctuates too much. Because bitcoin's price fluctuates, it currently remains an unstable currency for the people saying it's a currency.

Few businesses accept bitcoin. This may seem like a problem now and it may be a problem in the future if business don't accept it, but bitcoin makes exchanging currencies cheaper than traditional methods. It costs less to travel with it, which, with Echo Boomers' love of travel creates a demand. That being written, it still needs more businesses to accept it.

Nothing backs up bitcoin - it is completely made up. This statement is completely true. Bitcoin is a digital ledger entry, which is nothing physical. Proponents will say that only a maximum of 21 million bitcoins can ever exist (in 2150, currently only around 12 million exist); whereas, as the Federal Reserve has demonstrated, the US Dollar limit might be infinite. Dollars may exist in physical form though, even if they increase in supply. Bitcoin has a supply cap, but is nothing outside of a ledger entry.

The government may try to block bitcoin. This is an excellent argument against bitcoin if and only if all other countries do this. If several countries decide to use bitcoins, this arguments could fall apart provided they can control production or a significant amount of production. In a country, like the Soviet Union from the past, decided to use bitcoin, it would mean nothing since they were unproductive. Many bitcoin proponents will point to bitcoin's rising popularity in Asia, which has many productive countries at this time. The counterpoint to these proponents is that we don't know what the leaders of these countries will do in the long run.

Bitcoin could be a scam. This point carries a lot of weight as well. Another derivative of this argument is that the government or a government institution is secretly behind bitcoin. To be fair to bitcoin here, I've heard people call the stock market a scam, so this is something that people tend to state when they don't understand or don't trust something.

Why Bitcoin Might Carry Value

Are banks necessary? With savings' accounts paying nothing in interest, bitcoin allows you to hold your money in an independent currency which can be turned into whatever local currency you need. Not only would this help with travel and keeping foreign exchange costs down, we would literally need no "local" currency whatsoever except for buying good in that amount. At the end of the day, it's much cheaper (no debit/credit card fees at merchants) than using the costly banking system. Oh, and yeah, the banking system costs consumers huge sums of money - bitcoin eliminates the middle man. The obvious counterpoint is that banks have a powerful lobby.

Popular among young men. Men tend to lead innovation. Pretty much every early successful industry was dominated by men initially. The same applies to many trends. For instance, Echo Boomers love their tattoos, but if you go back about 30 years it was only men who had tattoos. We may see the same with bitcoin.

Wait until the Muslims hear about it. Some people may not know this, but [update: dead link] Muslims are against earning interest (and paying it) ; in fact, it's one of the most wicked sins. Obviously, Islam isn't compatible with fractional reserve banking, and perhaps the world would be a better place if all of us weren't. Bitcoin may be viewed as an alternative.

Bitcoin seems more evolved than gold for transactability. In a world where fiat currencies collapse (and in the long run, they will), many trumpet gold as the ultimate solution. But transactionability with gold can be problematic with our current innovation. Paper currencies make the bartering easier because you don't have to carry gold around with you, so in a sense, paper currencies - backed by gold - make sense. Even though nothing "backs up" bitcoin, proponents state that it won't ever exceed 21 million. This means that it's final amount - 21 million relative to gold will be a price exchange similar to what a paper currency backed by gold would be. Also, bitcoin is extremely cost efficient to use and trade. A low cost way to exchange value could be an argument in favor for it.

Bitcoin is global. And that's scary because basically, if it takes off, it will be a reserve currency in the world. For all the talk about "no country wants to have the reserve currency," well, they may all get their wish with a computer program displacing them.

Final Thoughts

I look at this list and am convinced I just don't know. Bitcoin may be a great invention that many of us are skeptical about or it could be the next great bubble that pops. Either way, don't believe people who try to convince you that they know WITHOUT A DOUBT what bitcoin will be, because at best, we're all estimating and guessing. And based on the price of bitcoin today alone, I'd say this is normal human behavior.

What Real Estate Do Millennials Want?

2013-09-01T11:57:00.005-05:00

If Texas, a state notorious for building expansive cities which require vehicles, begins to build real estate with businesses next to living spaces, then every real estate developer should follow. As you can read in the previous post, Generation Y Dumps Vehicles and Driving, Echo Boomers don't like driving and won't drive as much as former American generations. They carry an expectation that their jobs and favorite shops should be near them. I predict that Echo Boomers will prefer this type of living arrangement. From a bird's eye view, how should you approach real estate development? See the below, very simplified image:

[Update: dead image]

Summary of image: in the center black area, social businesses - such as restaurants, coffee shops, and other stores - and living spaces - such as apartment and condos - should be either stacked (living on top, business on bottom), or living spaces nearby businesses. In the outer, blue area of the development, professional businesses (like Google, Southern Company, Macy's Headquarters, etc) exist in close vicinity to where Echo Boomers live. This allows Echo Boomers to travel a minimum distance in order to arrive at a professional office. Remember that Echo Boomers experienced more financial pain from $4+ gallon gas than other generations, who had the incomes to offset this cost. These high gas prices are still fresh in their minds. In Lubbock, where I recorded my original video, the real estate developers built the businesses, apartments and shops within one square mile (and across from Texas Tech University). The more compact the development, the better for Echo Boomers.

Keep in mind that since Generation Y will have a lower marriage rate [updated link] , suburban areas will be in less demand than these areas. The "suburbs" appeal to families, whereas these areas appeal to single parents and singles. With a generation of approximately 33-40% singles (in the long run) out of 80 million, that's a demand of at least 26 million from this generation alone.

This applies to Echo Boomers who use electric cars. In speaking with a few Echo Boomers who want to own these cars, they want to live in close proximity to where they'll travel. Electric cars generally don't have the range (or ability to "refuel" quickly) like gasoline cars.

Millennial Women Will Make More Money

2013-08-28T18:25:00.008-05:00

[Update: dead image]

Readers may recall my assertion numerous times that Millennial females are faring better than men in terms of average income, for instance, Making Billions From Female Millennials:

Do we want to try and force something on our customers that they don't want? For female Echo Boomers, bet on fashion being in large demand (along with shopping-like experiences). Remember, female Echo Boomers have more money (on average) than their male counterparts.

However, readers may also see out-dated assertions that women still don't earn as much as men, and in a few rare cases, assertions that - quite frankly - haven't been updated since the 70s (such as the 77 cent myth).

Lo and behold, my research is far more accurate than these "gender wage gap" promoters, as a recent article on LinkedIn discussed a new trend of women becoming the major breadwinners:

The first thing you should know about the big flip — it’s big. 40% of American working wives now already out-earn their husbands (Pew Research 2012). In 40% of American families (with kids under 18), mom is the breadwinner (Pew Research 2013). In fact, the Boston Consulting Group has gone so far as to predict that in 15 years, women will not just close the income gap with men — but out-earn them.

Exactly as I've predicted: US Millennial women make more money than Millennial men and we can expect that to remain. Yes, there is some nuance in this prediction and I'll explain later, but the "hysteria" around women not doing well is not true for the Millennial generation.

I don't agree with ol' Iz in the sense that Millennial women will have to "change" their expectations on what they want in men, as I expect a 33-40% of Millennials won't marry. But, the women of this generation are more educated and can expect to earn more, provided they don't choose to drop out of the workforce, like this past generation of women did. Also, this demonstrates why for both Millennial men and women, in a battle of cohabitation versus marriage, cohabitation wins.

So, even as US Millennial women surpass Millennial men in income, and this trend continues, provided that they remain in the workforce, we still will see such wage gap myths throughout media (they hardly concerns themselves with research, truth or real data). Recognize, especially as a business, that this is a demographic with strong incomes and one you do not want to miss out because of false information prevalent in media. Only a foolish company would believe the women of this generation have low incomes, and that company will miss out on a major opportunity.

Relevant Research Point

Three really important points that cannot be missed here - and points you will almost never see in the media:

1. A never married woman who never has children has always made more money than a never married man who never has children. She also has a different set of values. As a business owner who may be targetting this demographic, don't miss this.

2. The biggest factor in male income is marriage. Even education plays far less than you would expect. An ever married man (married, divorced, widowed) makes significantly more money than everyone else. This holds even truer if he has children. I'm not going to engage in a social debate as to why, but marriage and family significantly affect male behavior, especially economic productive output.

3. Related to the second point, the married men of the ever married men category seldom make the daily financial decisions of the family. This has been noted by other sociologists and psychologists. Usually the wife makes the day-to-day purchase decisions. Likewise most of these men don't consider it "their" money even if they were the sole earner. I've seen this countless times in my research. The point here is that even with this group, you're not marketing to men solely but the family unit.

4. Use caution if you create a product for men. In the past, many advertisers targeted men through women because of marriage (see point 3). Since I predict that we'll see more single men, appealing to women for male products may not work as much as it did in the past. The key: is the product for married men or single men?

5. This applies to the US and possibly the West. We are not seeing this pattern for countries in Asia, including the Middle East.

"Exceptions Include, But Are Not Limited To..."

The standard disclosure line here applies. As I've noted to thought leaders: I'm highlighting what is happening in the United States. Remember that I've noted approximately 12-18% of young male Echo Boomers had planned to and left the United States. These young men have done extremely well financially because they worked and started businesses in extremely favorable environments. However, they are excluded in comparing Millennial women versus men's income because they are no longer Americans.

As I've said frequently about Generation X and Baby Boomers: the men in these generations didn't face the hurdles that young men in the Millennial generation. The example I've used repeatedly is educational institutions providing significant financial support to female Echo Boomers even though they were over represented in college. Young men saw that as a signal and headed for the exits. I've seen this also with some young men in iGenZ.

Young men took this as a signal that there wasn't a future for them. Whether we agree or disagree is irrelevant. But what I've noted is that since other countries have more business friendly environments, these young men who left have done exceptionally well. But their incomes don't count when you look at US incomes. Male Echo Boomers in the United States have done worse than female Echo Boomers in the United States overall (with the exception of what I've noted above this related to marriage).

In other words, the most ambitious young men in the Millennial generation left the United States.

The Next Billion Dollar Idea

2013-06-28T07:15:00.102-05:00

[Update: dead image]

A company declines Echo Boomers [updated link] jobs because they discover a posts on Facebook from a decade ago that they find unacceptable.

Controversy swells about privacy collection programs that track everything existing on the internet.

People, especially members of Generation Y, pay thousands of dollars a year to agencies that promise to "wipe their slate clean from the internet" while HR directors spend millions trying to uncover those old data.

Welcome to the age where what we do never ceases to exist ... at least for now.

While I recognize how unpopular I will be for stating the following:

The internet is not as permanent as people think.
The above observation is actually good because humans inherently need to let go of the "wrong" for the "right" (learning basics 101)
Keeping other people's information is actually a violation of private property
Times change and so do people, so what a person does at 20 doesn't say anything about them at 40

Unpopular to say? Yes, I've had many people at events I speak at disagree with many of these points. However, these will age well over time.

Let's relate this to the next billion dollar idea.

[Update: dead image]

What's missing in the marketplace is a temporary approach to managing data. Consider how a social media company could only keep data for one month, everything past one month ceases to exist. In some cases, we don't want to remember everything we ever did, nor do we want others to know either - and such an approach to data may eventually dominate the marketplace. I'll add here that this idea will exist whether we like it or not because people can always (1) remove what they've created (even if you keep it) and (2) stop contributing to something that keeps records. In fact, one point I should reflect over is how the internet may lead to a privacy backlash considering pendulum effects of people's behavior.

A temporary approach to information, or even an information exclusivity, hasn't arrived just yet as a popular platform or solution, but I expect that we'll see this in the long run in one form or another. Here's why:

1. Horror Stories

[Update: dead image]

No need for lawsuits; images like this would only exist temporarily.

Millennials spread horror stories faster than other generations, and sometimes they use social media to do so. The amount of horror stories involving someone's past interfering with a job have risen, and it's beginning to call into question the existence of social media. Either companies evolve, or they cease to exist as their constituents abandon their product.

You can make money off backlashes, yes. But what is the long term effect?

The same applies to firing someone because they posted something to social media. How will that not eventually create a far worse backlash?

Notice how both a temporary approach to information or information exclusivity solves this.

Don't forget this if you're older: you probably don't have the same views that you do now that you did when you were a teen. Is it mature to measure someone by what they said 20 years ago?

2. Advertising Becomes More Effective

The worst advertising approach is assuming that no one ever grows. Fresh data without past data actually provides more accuracy to advertisers as to what consumers want because no assumptions exist. With past data comes past assumptions, and removing past data eliminates this obstacle.

Advertising works like how adults play soccer versus kids. Kids chase the ball whever it is. Adults stay in a position and play their position. Advertising that reacts to the marketplace erratically will do well in some seasons, but overall, I've seen it significantly underperform strategic advertising.

A good data principle: where do the data indicate the person/industry/world heading? In many cases, you can only answer this question by getting rid of data that's no longer relevant.

3. Meet Little Data - It's Cheaper

[Update: dead image]

Businesses love to save money. How much work is required with smaller data sets versus large?

Storage and compute cost. Likewise, the wrong assumptions cost. Little data may be more precise and uses less resources. That's a win-win for businesses.

4. No One's Perfect

Since everyone has made a mistake (or will make a mistake), it's only a matter of time before everyone sees the benefit with such an approach to data, as well as realizing that the best place for memories are in one's own brain, not in the public eye. Any view of history will show pendulum swings, and currently, the pendulum has swung too far in the direction of too much information.

Ironically, if you're an information professional, limiting data may be your saving grace. You never want to be a part of a bubble.

5. That's Not Your Community

What was the lesson of the Tower of Babel?

Whether you like it or not, people will have opinions that differ than yours. You may not like them. Maybe that means you don't belong in that group. If you can't live in a world where other people think and act differently than you, then you will enter a violent world. From the Soviet Union to Pol Pot's Cambodia, not being able to handle people who are different than you always ends badly.

Notice how temporary information or information exclusivity solves these problems. Not only do you not know everything about a person, people only share details with those they value. I expect that as the backlash toward these cancellations occur, the next billion dollar idea (or ideas) will address this problem.

(Never forget that Echo Boomers do not value their privacy. But be careful because iGenZ and other generations may value it much more, especially because of all the absurd cancellation stories that are happening.)

Julie Zeilinger: Challenges Facing Millennial Women

2012-08-23T08:00:00.008-05:00

Feminism, Millennial Women and the Other Side

As I've predicted that Millennial females will make more money than Millennial males [updated research post], I've gotten insight and met various thought leaders who are themselves Echo Boomers. One leading voice has been Julie Zeilinger.

Who Is Julie Zeilinger?

Brief Bio (taken from About Julie):

Julie wrote the book A Little F'd Up: Why Feminism Is Not a Dirty Word. After her freshman year, she wrote the popular book for freshman girls, College 101: A Girl's Guide to Freshman Year. She has been named as one of the most influential bloggers under the age of 21 by Women's Day magazine.

So, Just Had To Ask ... (Interview)

1. In your article on Forbes, you state that Millennial women face a different form of discrimination than women in the past. What are these new forms of discrimination that Millennial women primarily face?

I believe that generally the type of discrimination Millennial women face tends to be more subtle than in years past. While our foremothers were raised in a culture that generally accepted women’s inferiority to men as fact, the feminist movement has made incredible progress. Today women do have access to education and are largely able to enter the same careers as men (although men still dominate many fields and do still earn more than us on average). I believe that while the feminist movement largely accomplished legal equality, we have yet to achieve cultural equality. Women are still seen as imperfect and are largely objectified in a way that men simply are not. One really pervasive example is street/sexual harassment – so many young women face street harassment on a regular basis. And yet as we are blatantly objectified and disrespected by men, we are told that we have achieved gender equality.
Of course, there’s a huge caveat to this in terms of the fact that there are of course still women who face serious and even life-threatening forms of discrimination in the U.S. as well as abroad. Women’s experiences with discrimination are largely impacted by socioeconomic factors like race, class, sexual orientation (etc) and it’s really impossible to generalize the experience of all women in this day and age because it truly does vary vastly. My thoughts above and those that I wrote about in Forbes are based on my experience and observations as an admittedly privileged young woman.
2. How do you think that these issues can be addressed? And who/what should address these?

I believe that the feminist movement is still working hard in this day and age to address these issues. I think that we’ve made great strides through online-based campaigns – petitions on Change.org and other similar sites, Twitter campaigns targeting sexist figures, etc as well as on-the-streets style activism (like SlutWalks, etc). But I really believe that these issues need to be addressed via education. Young women (and young men, for that matter) are barely taught about the feminist movement or about the social issues the feminist movement addresses in school. I think schools across the country need to incorporate these issues into their curriculum. I think it’s just as important for students to be educated about pervasive issues that exist today as it is to be educated about U.S. history and algebra.

3. One criticism that could be made against your argument is that Millennial women are performing better than Millennial men - in terms of career and education, and thus will do better in leadership over the course of their lives. How would you respond to critics that state this?

I think we need to separate statistics like those that show women are the majority of undergrads in this country from the concept of women and leadership – they are not one in the same. I can’t speak from my own experience because, after all, I am still an undergrad but from what I understand once women do enter the workforce they face roadblocks based on their gender that simply don’t exist in the same way for men. For example, women aren’t able to progress in their careers once they start families in the same way men are (hence the recent “having it all” debate). The U.S. is seriously lagging behind in policies that would help women ascend to leadership and have a family – for example, the U.S. is one of three countries that doesn’t have legally enforced paid maternity leave (the other two countries are Papau New Guinea and Swaziland, for the record) and most companies don’t offer family friendly policies like flex hours. Despite our increased presence in the work place, women still are burdened with most unpaid domestic duties. So, while women may be able to enter the workplace we deal with a number of other duties and responsibilities that hold us back from ascending to leadership positions. Basically we have to separate our legal abilities and even our presence in certain careers and educational institutions from leadership. Also, I think that, again, the argument that millennial women are performing “better” than millennial men varies depending on certain socio-economic factors.

Jed Kolko: Millennials and the Real Estate Market

2012-08-17T08:31:00.005-05:00

About that Housing Market ...

This blog has featured several articles about Millennials and housing (as well as the below video). With Echo Boomers being one of the largest generations in American history, when they are ready to buy homes, they should create a major demand.

When it comes to Millennials and housing, especially for the future with regards to the political climate, what can we expect? Jed Kolko, a Chief Economist at Trulia, offered excellent observations to these questions.

Who Is Jed Kolko?

Brief Bio (found at About Jed Kolko):
Jed Kolko, Chief Economist and Head of Analytics, oversees Trulia's research programs. Applying a background in economic development and research methods, he transforms real estate data, economic trends, and public policy debate into digestible insights for home buyers, sellers and renters. In Jed's prior role as Associate Director and Research Fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California, he led research projects and advised policymakers and business leaders on economic, housing and technology policies. Before his work at PPIC, Jed directed Forrester Research's consumer-technology market research, advising corporate executives on technology adoption and demand. Jed has also held positions at the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (now FHFA), the World Bank and the Progressive Policy Institute.
Jed earned his A.B. in social studies and his Ph.D. in economics at Harvard University.
You can find him on Twitter.

So, Just Had To Ask ... (Interview)

1. The Millennial generation (approximately born from 1980 to 1995) will be America's next great generation as far as housing is concerned, whether they rent or own. Based on your research, what have you observed about Millennial homeowners at this point in time, or is there any indication that they're interested in home-ownership?

The Millennial generation suffered a worse recession than older adults. The unemployment rate of 25-to-34-year-olds rose higher than the unemployment rate overall and only recently fallen back in line. Many Millennials doubled up or stayed at home with parents rather than entering the housing market on their own as renters or buyers. But they won’t live with their parents forever. As the economy recovers, they’ll enter the housing market: nearly two-third still say that homeownership is part of their American Dream. Buying, though, will be a challenge for many of them: for Millennials, the downpayment remains the biggest obstacle to homeownership, and with rents rising rapidly and student debt hanging over their heads, saving for a downpayment is a challenge.

Editor’s Note:
While not Millennials, the New York Times recently featured an article about 4 men with a unique living situation. Some Millennials are doing something similar, like Jessica in 4 strange ways to save money. Similar to Jed's point, these may be temporary strategies to handle the current economic climate. This doesn't mean they won't ever demand homes of their own.

2. According to Case-Shiller (as of April this year), housing prices are on the rise again. Can we expect them to continue to rise, level out, or fall - and what's been helping this increase in prices?

The Trulia Price Monitor – which tracks asking prices – shows that prices have been rising for six months and have been rising in most major housing markets. Job growth, along with declining vacancies and inventories, are pushing prices higher. Job growth means more people are interested and able to buy, and the decline in vacancies and inventories means that buyers are chasing fewer available homes and therefore bidding prices up. A big reason for lower inventories is fewer foreclosed homes on the market. Since foreclosed homes are often at the lower end of the market, first-time buyers will find fewer bargains listed for sale then they would have a year ago. We’ve seen asking prices continue to rise in July, which means sales prices should keep rising at least through the fall.

3. This is for the Millennials out there who question the value of home-ownership - are there any economic arguments in favor of renting as opposed to owning (I know, an unpopular question here in the United States)?

There are good arguments in favor of renting, depending on your situation. Buying a home involves upfront costs, as well as time and effort – which may not be worth it unless you plan to stay in your home at least 5-7 years. Also, renting may make more sense if you are new to a city and aren’t sure which neighborhood is a good fit for you. Finally, in some markets buying is not really cheaper than renting – such as Honolulu and San Francisco, as well as Manhattan – especially if your tax bracket is low and you therefore benefit less from the mortgage interest deduction. Still, with the huge price declines in the past five years, and rising rents, buying is quite affordable relative to renting in most markets, especially in the Midwest and the South.

4. A side question here - but one that will gain increasing amount of attention in the future: is the mortgage tax deduction a good idea from an economic standpoint? Why or why not?

The mortgage interest deduction is politically popular, but one of the few areas of possible bipartisan agreement on tax reform might be to reduce tax deductions – of which the mortgage interest deduction is a major one. On one hand, the housing market is still fragile, and rising prices have real benefits for the economy, so reducing the incentive to buy a home right now could hurt the economic and housing recovery. On the other hand, because of the way the mortgage interest deduction works, it gives a much bigger tax break to richer taxpayers, particularly in geographic areas with higher home prices. Only 30% of taxpayers even itemize their deductions in the first place, so the benefits of the mortgage interest deduction goes to some homeowners and not others. The mortgage interest deduction is – and will remain -- in the crosshairs of two big policy debates: how much should government spend to encourage homeownership, and what’s the fairest and most efficient way to spread those benefits?

Med School Blows Past the Education Bubble

2012-07-30T08:00:00.009-05:00

I expect the partisans to argue about this article as far as the health care law is concerned:

Health experts, including many who support the law, say there is little that the government or the medical profession will be able to do to close the gap by 2014, when the law begins extending coverage to about 30 million Americans. It typically takes a decade to train a doctor.

However, pertinent to the education bubble, we need doctors - and medical school is not in a bubble compared to other degrees. Of course, in how economics says education is a waste, we find that supply and demand ultimately matter, something many are missing when they try to argue in favor of education. While our marketplace holds too many degrees, unfortunately, we are seeing a major gap in some professions - the main one being medical school. In fact, law school is in a huge bubble, while these same students won't consider pursuing a medical degree (an MD is much harder to obtain). One related point I speak about that goes missing in this analysis is that while lawyers want all systems to become more bureaucratic, doctors want the system to produce superior results. The United States almost graduates more lawyers than doctors - what do you think the long term effect of this will be? I expect that the medical system in the United States will grow more complex over time.

Unfortunately, even though Echo Boomers are highly educated, they do not realize these trends in front of them or what this means.

The Supply and Demand Problem

Unlike other degrees, we have a major supply problem with medical school. We have a massive generation aging (the Baby Boomers) and we've expanded medical coverage under the health care law (increasing competition for goods and services). We don't have the equivalent increase in students attending medical school and we continue to see a rise in lawyers - these lawyers will only complicate the future healthcare system. In other words, health care costs will continue to rise for the foreseeable future due to a lack of doctors (this factor alone will cause problems). As this causes pain in the medical field, it could create more shortages because a shortage of labor can lead to overwork of that labor (ie: with a doctor shortage, existing doctors have to "offset" the labor shortage, thus some may choose to retire early). This could also cause pain in related medical professions, such as nursing.

Another factor, contributing to this problem, is the hostility toward young men on college campuses. In a private discussion I had with executives I titled Too Many Young Men In STEM Fields, I highlighted government policies trying to attract more young women, while punishing young men with interest in science (normally, a precursor to medical school). To put it bluntly: we need doctors regardless of their gender.

You may recall that I've noted that about 12-18% of young male Echo Boomers had planned to and left the United States. Many of these young men had the ambition to become doctors. Why didn't they? Read that article again and note my point about the education environment they would have felt. That's a cultural influence on a person's decision. These men chose to leave the country, work and starte businesses elsewhere.

While I understand the political move, as young women predominantly are viewed as a voter base, the problem is that we have a labor shortage in medicine. When you're faced with a labor shortage, you don't exacerbate the problem with policies that increase the shortage. Don't miss that male doctors are much more likely to work longer hours than female doctors. This means that you would need close to as much as twice as many female doctors as male doctors.

This observation becomes humorous when you realize how many industries "want more women" (tech, engineering, etc). You can see the contradiction: we would need twice as many female doctors, but you have tons of incentives for women that don't require the length of medical school. You can see what will happen in the future.

Insight: The unintended consequences of serving only your group of people is that you end up undermining your group of people. We live in a society with a specialized division of labor. In this society, we rely on others and their skills (specialty). If we have a shortage of any specialty, we all pay a higher cost. Any political policy that favors one group over another in a way that would discourage one group from obtaining a specialty (especially when that specialty is in a shortage), will result is huge consequences for everyone including the favored group.

Ideology Over Pragmatism

A college professor once told me that all problems fundamentally begin when people place an ideology over pragmatism and we see that here. We have a shortage of doctors, an aging population, and plans to expand healthcare (all on top of a growing national debt that will eventually bankrupt the country).

Yet we don't have the fundamentals in place for these things to exist in reality. In addition, we're adding legal complexity to the healthcare system and we're discouraging young men from going to college, ironically lowering the supply of future doctors that we'll need. In a way, the future looks bright for those in medical school, but sadly looks dim for the rest of the country.

The Automation Myth

One response I get and have gotten from thought leaders? "We'll automate healthcare." Future promises of AI (though AI has been around since the 1970s) or other technological tools that will make healthcare better. Ironically the people saying this don't realize that automation in healthcare has not actually made it better - people are not living longer. In fact, when you compare communities that don't use technology (ie: Amish) with communities that do, it's difficult to see how increased automation has had any impact.

While outside this post's scope, one of many reasons for this in healthcare involves care: we feel better when we know that someone or someones care of us. Visiting a doctor is not the same experience as seeing a health report without any interaction that we're doing good. Humans are social creatures and what can be easily overlooked in medicine is that removing the social side of medicine removes some of its care. This means that automation can help, but should not replace people because patients may get value from the social side of care.

If automation doesn't move standards of living forward, then the automation doesn't matter. You can automate many things in your life and you should. But automate something that you deeply enjoy, such as a computer playing the piano for you rather than you playing your favorite song. It doesn't fit. Why? Because most of us don't want to automate what we enjoy; we want to experience what we enjoy. In some cases, the social side of healthcare is very important - speaking with a caring doctor or nurse actually helps us feel better or inspires us to feel better. If that's what we need, then no report (or future robot) will help us.

"Too Many Young Men In STEM Fields"

2012-07-12T13:37:00.053-05:00

Apparently, we need fewer men [Update: dead link removed] in science, technology, engineering and mathematics, according to the current administration:

[Highlights snipped; read the full article for details.]

Quotas limiting the number of male students in science may be imposed by the Education Department in 2013.

...

Obama hinted that Title IX quotas would soon come to engineering and techology[.]

The author argues that this is about choice, not gender and makes an interesting point about the liberal arts:

Gender disparities in a major are not the product of sexism, but rather the differing preferences of men and women. The fact that engineering departments are filled mostly with men does not mean they discriminate against women anymore than the fact that English departments are filled mostly with women proves that English departments discriminate against men. The arts and humanities have well over 60 percent female students, yet no one seems to view that gender disparity as a sign of sexism against men. Deep down, the Obama administration knows this, since it is planning to impose its gender-proportionality rules only on the STEM fields (science, technology, engineering, and math), not other fields that have similarly large gender disparities in the opposite direction.

This should strengthen Obama's popularity among women. In addition, I expect that this will help retain and possibly expand his popularity among female Echo Boomers. Statistically, this is a good choice because I've observed that women vote more frequently than men.

The Unintended Effects

I do not care about the political debate on either side regardless of people's view. However, with fewer men in STEM fields, we will see fewer doctors along with fewer hours worked by doctors. I will continue to highlight this point because you will see it in the future: you have a retiring generation (Baby Boomers) which will need healthcare and policies are disincentivizing young men from attending college, who tend to study career paths that lead to medicine. Healthcare will be extremely expensive in the future, but mostly because of the effects on labor that policies like these have.

On a pertinent side note, if you limit the number of men who can enter STEM fields, you'll also have even fewer men attend college. However, I've long said that the best opportunities for young men are no longer in the United States of America in the same manner that the best opportunities for young men in the Soviet Union were not in the Soviet Union.

U.S. Males Dump Marriage

2012-06-30T08:00:00.040-05:00

[Update: dead image]

It looks as if Pew saw something other social research has failed to see (check out the below image; update - no longer available). Using sentiment trackers and analysis, so far U.S. males (n=1000+) seem to be hostile toward the idea of marriage (contributing to the low marriage rate ?).

This study, of course, is ongoing, and the findings seem similar to the Pew findings - though, unlike Pew, this study does not evaluate what is considered the "most important thing in life," but what is the general sentiment toward marriage of men and women. To a certain degree, I think the Pew study creates a weakness by asking a dumb question, instead of trying to capture the overall sentiment (which would be more accurate). Nonetheless, a post explaining more details about this study (which is much larger) will be forthcoming.

[Update: dead image]

While my study does not calculate age (unlike the Pew study), this seems to reconcile with my findings where Millennial males didn't seem interested in the prospect of marriage. As it turns out, male Echo Boomers may be wise for abstaining from marriage. While this bodes well for men, it creates a dilemma for culture.

Related, there's been an increase in young women who say that having a successful marriage is one of the most important things. A recent study might even show why they would think this since parenthood ranks of high importance to young women as well:

A new study discovers that while mothers have a unique social and emotional bond with each child, a father’s love contributes as much — and sometimes more — to a child’s development.

...

The results from more than 500 studies suggest that while children and adults often experience more or less the same level of acceptance or rejection from each parent, the influence of one parent’s rejection — oftentimes the father’s — can be much greater than the other’s.

In other words, Kay Hymowitz is both right and wrong about family formation: while a marriage - including a man and woman - cultivates the best environment for child-rearing, the Millennial generation will probably have a low marriage rate, affecting its other social value, parenthoood.

Impacts (Update From Private Discussions)

For reasons that I don't care to understand, discussions about marriage and fatherhood can often seem politically incorrect. I will not communicate all my thoughts here for this reason and continue to speak privately about many of the trends along with the why, but there are a few public points worth noting that cannot be denied.

Civilized society is a relatively new concept in human history. It has allowed us to do many things that our ancestors could have only dreamed of doing. But it's not guaranteed. I will end this point here and note that I have more to say privately.

Which Is A Bigger Bubble: Tattoos or Degrees?

2012-06-24T09:00:00.004-05:00

My money is on the education bubble popping first, but sooner or later tattoos will lose their appeal with Echo Boomers and other generations.

Dan Eisenberg Discusses Telomere Length and Age

2012-06-15T08:00:00.003-05:00

Does a birth from a late father potentially affect the longevity of the offspring? Does it have any impact on telomere length? Dan Eisenberg has studied this and discussed this in a recent finding. I recently interviewed him on his study so that he could explain it. You can find the study here. Dan Eisenberg is a Ph.D. candidate at Northwestern University and has been published with many other authors in peer-reviewed journals (which you can read at the link above this). Along with being a Ph.D. candidate, he's received numerous awards and honors, as well as helped with several humanitarian efforts.

1. What were the findings on your recent study related to older fathers and their children in terms of telomere length?

Telomeres are pieces of DNA found at the ends of our chromosomes that cap and protect the chromosome (like the plastic tips at the end of shoelaces). Each time one of our cells replicates telomeres tend to get a little shorter. So as we get older telomeres get shorter (in tissues in our body which replicate). When telomeres get too short, the cell can no longer replicate and sometimes dies off. Thus, shorter telomeres seem to contribute to deteriorating health with age.

However, previous studies have shown that children of older fathers have longer telomeres (probably because as a man ages, telomeres in his sperm get longer). Our study shows for the first time that this happens across at least two generations: older fathers not only have offspring with longer telomeres, but their sons also have offspring with longer telomeres. That is, having an older grandfather on your dad’s side at the birth of your father predicts that you will have longer telomeres.

This implies that having a father and/or grandfather who reproduced at later ages might cause you to live longer because you were born with longer telomeres. This might be an evolutionary mechanism which allows the offspring to receive a signal of what the environment was like in recent generations. If your father and grandfather were able to live to reproduce at a later age it might be more beneficial for you to invest in having a healthier longer life.

You can read the original study here.

2. How do telomeres relate to health and longevity?

Telomere length is shortened by cell division and replication and shortened telomeres limit the ability of cells to replicate. As such, in general telomeres probably influence cells and parts of our bodies in which cells divide and replicate more. Such cells include our immune system, skin and gut lining. Consistent with this, shorter telomere lengths are associated with increased mortality from infectious diseases and cardiovascular diseases.

However, I also want to note that, as in most science, we need to be careful not to assume correlation is causation. Shorter telomeres in blood are also associated with (and probably caused by) increased stress, infection, poor diet and lack of exercise. Because of this, it can be difficult to definitively discern whether and how much associations between shorter telomeres and poorer later health imply that telomeres are causing this or whether telomeres are more of a marker of past damages. Still there are some good reasons to think that shorter telomeres do actually cause poorer health.

3. I know many people are already asking this question at this point, so I'll go ahead and ask it: outside of aging (for men here), any other ways for people to lengthen their telomeres?

The best bet remains the usual suspects: don't eat too much, eat healthy food and exercise. Meat consumption, particularly processed meat has been associated with shorter telomeres (see here, here, and here). I'd recommend avoiding any supplement/medication which claims to extend your telomeres.

If you are asking about how men might extend the telomere lengths of their sperm, this is an intriguing question. The only thing I know of that influences sperm telomere length is age. However, my evolutionary theory about father's and grandfather's age influencing telomere length of children as a sort of adaptive signaling mechanism, raises the question of whether other things in men's environments also influence the telomere length of his sperm.

4. Up to this point in your research, what's been your most suprising finding?

To some extent, I was not very surprised by the results. I predicted that the paternal age effect on telomere length would persist across multiple generations in a publication last year in the American Journal of Human Biology (see here). I predicted this because factors like being a first born child or a last born child of a man in the same environment would result in different telomere lengths. But if the effect of paternal age averages across generations than a baby receives not just the signal of what the environment was like for dad, but dad's dad and dad's dad's dad. This could mean that the telomere length a baby inherits conveys a more accurate message about what the recent past environment was like--and what it is likely to be like for that baby growing up.

On the other hand, we only show this association from paternal grandfather's (father's father's age) not maternal grandfathers (mother's father's age at mother's birth). This is peculiar, was unexpected and calls for more research about why there is such a difference in how telomeres are passed on from mothers than from fathers.

Interview: “I Can’t Afford My Private Student Loans”

2012-03-29T06:54:00.003-05:00

My interview with Natalia Antonova

Also, see yesterday's post on how modern "education" has deceived some Echo Boomers and members of iGenZ.

"Give Us Facebook Or We'll Take A Lower Paying Job!"

2012-03-10T08:00:00.005-06:00

Quick Summary:
Some Echo Boomers would take a lower paying job, provided they could surf Facebook at work. Reminder: Echo Boomers love self-esteem boosts more than sex and money.

For the humorous article of the week but one in which executives should be aware of - some Echo Boomers would take a lower paying job if it meant that they could access Facebook at work:

According to Cisco’s second annual Connected World Technology Report, which surveyed 1,400 college students age 18 to 23, and 1,400 young professionals under 30, across 14 countries, the ability to use social media, mobile devices, and the Internet more freely in the workplace can influence job choice, sometimes even more than salary.
In fact, 40 percent of college students and 45 percent of young professionals said they would accept lower-paying jobs in exchange for those freedoms. You read that right.

In other words, some Echo Boomers see work as another place to "digitally hang out" with their friends. We see this pattern with some Echo Boomers; they don't see doing work as something that fulfills you. Some Echo Boomers don't respect their time, money or the value of their work. To them, work is time to have fun not serve the customer or client.

In other words, companies like Microsoft, Cisco or Apple may consider cutting their Millennial employees' salary while giving them Facebook freedom, and about half of the their Millennial workforce would remain. Likewise, Echo Boomers may not see companies provide them with raises to stay because the generation doesn't take work seriously - as a means of providing value. We may see employers in the future reluctantly give Echo Boomer raises, if at all.

As an interesting side note, I could not tell if the author of the article was kidding or not in some places. For instance:

Remember, as kids they earned trophy after trophy for just for participating. So it’s no surprise to learn that they are hungry for positive feedback.
But like anything else in their lives, if it isn’t posted on their wall, it’s almost like it didn’t happen at all. In other words, accolades that can be viewed by their colleagues will pack twice the punch. Facebook makes it painless to commend and reward your employees publicly.

The message that employers may get here is don't give the Echo Boomers a raise - post a "good job" on their Facebook Wall, and they'll be happy for a day (or week, or month, or year). Technically, Echo Boomers enjoy self-esteem boosts (more than sex and money), and for some, a self-esteem boost may be a post on their Facebook Wall. Getting a "good job" publicly on their Facebook Wall and looking good in front of their friends beats a raise. Of course, there will be Echo Boomers who do not value this flattery and they'll see it as such. If you have an employee who does not have Facebook at all, you may want to stick with giving him* the actual raise.

I write him* intentionally because I don't know a single female around my age without a Facebook account. By contrast, about 10% of my male friends around my age do not have Facebook accounts.

Interview: Matt Kramer On Predatory Leadership

2012-03-01T07:00:00.010-06:00

Note: the paragraph format of this interview was updated to assist with related and complete thoughts.

A brief biography about Matt Kramer:

Matt Kramer is parent-child mediation, mediator, photographer, entertainment entrepreneur, talent consultant and coordinator. He's based in Dallas and Austin Texas, doing business throughout Central and North Texas, and outside the area. He's also studying predatory leadership and how it affects our society. You can get more information about him on his website, [Update: dead link removed - his site is no longer active] mattkramer.com .

1. What is predatory leadership?

Predatory Leadership is the display, by one's actions, policies or agendas, of their mental, emotional and subconscious investment into attaining their goals, openly or covertly, by any means, with complete disregard or concern for the consequences of their efforts upon others.

2. How has predatory leadership affected the business and political worlds?

Predatory leadership is evident throughout almost all aspects of society.

In the domestic arena, the behavior is identified in verbal and physical abuse in families. In regional municipalities it shows up in government corruption as in the City of Bell, a small town east of Los Angeles in which the city manager was paying himself over $800,000 a year and helping his cronies milk the local economy with comparably illegitimate salaries at the expense of the inhabitants of the city (Gottlieb & Knoll, 2011). It shows up in a corporate culture that replicates the evils associated with destructive forms of competition focused on increasing shareholder profits while ignoring pollution controls, quality control, employee safety, etc. It showed up in Bernie Madoff. One example is the corporate - political scandals in which city officials take or demand bribes, currying favors for vendors and suppliers whose products are not in the best interests of their constituents. It shows up in religious organizations protecting pedophiles at the expense of their victims. It showed up in Radio-Te´le´vision Libre des Mille Collines (RTLM) when its disc jockeys spent months exploiting racial prejudice and exhorting its listeners to prepare to reclaim their country via the extermination of their Tutsi neighbors (Li, 2004). It shows up when any dictator censors free press, imposes martial law and assassinates his opponents in order to maintain illegitimate control of the nation.

Predatory leadership wreaks havoc upon humanity in myriad ways too numerous to include in this document. The proliferation of the psychological culture of predatory leadership is thousands of years old. The impact and consequences of this syndrome shows up throughout all levels of culture in ways that are invisible as well as visible. Conventional wisdom says that man is violent by nature, that war is inevitable. That a few bad apples make the organization look worse than it is. But maybe that's just a symptom of the pervasive nature of the predatory leader. There are pockets of humanity, small communities where leaders are not corrupt. There are idealists working hard to change systems that perpetuate destructive, harmful practices at all levels of government and throughout society. Countering their passionate efforts are powerful forces employing maximum effort to sustain the status quo in spite of the harm suffered by many people in the process.

3. What are the solutions to predatory leadership?

While I do not have all the answers, I believe the initial stage of any solution begins with verifiable information. Most people do not recognize the early warning signs of socipathic behavior. Our awareness of the nature of this pathology is akin to the status of medicine in the 16th century – physicians then did not know about bacteria and viruses; most of their theories about illness were wrong. Due to their ignorance, they didn't know they were spreading diseases among their patients.

Teach everyone, especially children, to recognize the early symptoms of narcissism and sociopathy at a young age; they will have the opportunity to make better choices in whom they choose to follow, promote, elect or marry.

A second stage would be to develop opportunities for people to gather and brainstorm more solutions. By educating and involving the general population in generating solutions, ideas will surface that are workable within the resources of those involved.

4. Suppose someone tells you: "People who succeed in business/politics are in leadership positions because they worked harder than everyone else, not because they are sociopaths." How would you address this assertion?

Certainly there are successful business people and politicians who earned their success legitimately. While it may be difficult for the uninformed to identify "healthy" from "toxic" personalities, one concern is that in order to succeed, some of them had to replicate sociopathic behavior (the ends justify the means) in order to gain their success.

For example, a top executive at Nestle's may have empathy and be concerned about the way Nestle's marketing techniques raise mortality rates for third world infants but in order to hold on to his position, he withholds his point of view and goes along with the company's policies (Breastfeeding.com, 2012).

5. Last question, and this one is quite the challenge. I would argue that some people in our world like to be prey; meaning they would like a predator for a leader. While normal individuals, like you and I, find this appalling, after working in social psychology, I studied people who desired to be abused (as disturbing as this phenomena is). How do we address people who want to be abused?

There are a number of reasons this may happen, and you are more correct than you may realize.

On the domestic level, some who have low self esteem deny themselves the opportunity for healthy relationships; subconsciously they will "punish" themselves by getting into abusive relationships.

On the larger social level, some people do gravitate to leaders they feel will carry out policies and agendas they themselves do not want to handle. Another reason is that those leaders provide a parental role – the followers want to believe their leaders know more than they do. The "toxic" follower will believe the lies of a toxic leader who promises lies they want to hear (like blaming a minority for their problems or pushing a false short term solution for a difficult problem), rather than accept a truth (such as a long term solution) they don't want to hear from someone else. (Lipman-Blumen, 2006). Hopefully those who are educated to this phenomenon will not fall prey to it.

Matt's Sources:

1. Breastfeeding.com (2012). The Nestle Boycott. Retrieved from: http://www.breastfeeding.com/advocacy/advocacy_boycott.html

2. Gottlieb, J. & Knoll, C. (2011). Robert Rizzo, aide accused of conspiracy in Bell corruption scandal. Retrieved from: http://articles.latimes.com/2011/mar/31/local/la-me-0331-bell-indictment-20110331

3. Li, D. (2004) Journal of Genocide Research (2004), 6(1), March, 9–27 Carfax Publishing Blumen-Lipman, J. (2006). The Allure of Toxic Leaders: Why We Follow Destructive Bosses and Corrupt Politicians – and How We can Survive Them. New York, NY: Oxford University Press

Who Is Generation Z?

2012-02-13T08:00:00.015-06:00

Quick Summary:
Generation Z follows Generation Y. Generation Z is born from 1996 to 2011 Generation Z is smaller than Generation Y. Generation Z only knows of a world with the internet, this is why I refer to them as iGenZ. Generation Z (in the United States) faces a dismal economic future.

I explain in this article why I refer to Generation Z members as iGenZ. Like Echo Boomers, I generally refer to the title of the generation as Generation Z (like Generation Y as the title for Echo Boomers).

Basic Introduction

Many of the regular readers know all about Generation Y [updated link] , but may wonder about the following generation: Generation Z. The next fifteen year generation completed its final year of birth (2011), and will be coming of age over the next few decades. What we know about Generation Z at this time is that it's not as large as Generation Y, it only knows about a world with the internet, and it will face a dismal economic picture.

One potential inaccurate statistic that I'll state is that Generation Z is smaller than Generation Y. I state this without numbers because Generation Y is 80 to 86 million strong, whereas kids born from 1994 to 2004 (most of which are Generation Z, though it goes seven years after that date) are only 23 million strong. Numerically speaking, even if the remaining 7 years of Generation Z doubled the first 8 years, it still wouldn't be larger than Generation Y (23 + 46 = 69). On top of this, with the economy current performing poorly, many people (especially Echo Boomers [updated link]!) have delayed family formation: in fact, that's one of the things I write about on this blog. This has sucked some size from Generation Z.

The Millennial generation may not realize this, but many of its members can still recall a world without the internet. They can recall doing research by going to the library and searching manually through a database (gosh, I can remember looking through the actual cards!). The world has completely changed now: with the rise of the internet, Wikipedia, Google and some specialized blogs have become the major source of information, along with electronic news. Generation Z only knows the internet, as the youngest iGenZ (born in 1996) would have been born in a world already with the internet. And about the time these early iGenZ became fully conscious, the internet was becoming widespread. The effects of this fact remain to be seen: I cannot theorize at this time what this will mean for Generation Z. This is one reason that you will sometimes see me refer to Generation Z as iGenZ.

The United States as an economic superpower has declined rapidly over the last decade and this will have a major influence on both Generation Y and Z. Some young members of Generation Y might be able to recall a low national debt and a major surplus (2000), while this is completely foreign to Generation Z as they come of age. This change won't just affect the political spectrum and how iGenZ votes, but it will affect how iGenZ conducts business. The attitudes toward frugality may amp up in this generation if financial factors do not significantly change for the United States soon.

Technology Native

Since iGenZ only know of a world with the internet, we may feel tempted to think they will spend more time on the internet than Echo Boomers. I predict this early, as iGenZ will have early access to the internet in their life. However, we don't require technology as humans. I do not know if the over abundance of technology may shift attitudes toward it. In the same way that Echo Boomers often dislike big companies from previous generations, iGenZ may later dislike technology companies that Echo Boomers loved. We all forget that youth can reject the ideas and behaviors of older generations. This is part of how humanity progresses.

For the present time, iGenZ will heavily use the internet. They will also heavily trust what they see, read or hear on the internet. What happens as they age? We'll see and it's a trend I'll be watching carefully.

Lacking Basic Critical Thought

One iGenZ pattern I've recently made public involves their inability to critically think on a basic level. I've observed this on basic critical thought, not advanced. For an example, taking information about energy in the physical and developing an understanding of how that will affect economic perspectives of trade and value involves synthesizing a broad amount of information that seems unrelated. (Most members of iGenZ will have no idea what I just wrote here.) We all know that this is part of our mind's glory: we can take unrelated information and see patterns, make predictions, and execute on these with success.

However, many members of iGenZ struggle to apply relatedinformation. Consider what I just wrote. We're not talking about a step that involves sythesis or integrated thinking. We're talking basic understanding. An abundance of information (the internet) leads to a lack of execution and an inability to think, even in the information one has. You can see this with iGenZ. Every now and then I'll meet an impressive member of iGenZ, but he (and it's almost always a "he") is only impressive because of his lack of access to his mobile phone and internet. For an example, I once met an iGenZ member who was running three registers at the gas station. When I asked why, he replied that his colleagues called in sick. He was doing the work of three people. But most of his peers would have simply used that as an excuse to surf social media on their phone and distract themselves with non-work related information.

The internet, search engines, and some applications of AI are making this problem worse. At our research firm, we've cautioned people that if you don't practice imagination, then you won't know how to think, but only what to think. We note reading is one way to practice imagination, but that's not the only way (one can stare at the wall for an entire day and this activity will also engage their imagination). Either way, if you work with iGenZ, you'll frequently see this pattern.

Interview: Jessica Setnick on Eating Disorders

2012-01-19T08:00:00.060-06:00

One struggle that Generation Y females and males face is eating disorders, and it seems to be a growing problem. Like with many problems, misinformation can spread and cause some people to avoid seeking the appropriate help. I recently interviewed Jessica Setnick, who is an expert on eating disorders:

Jessica Setnick introduced her compassionate and practical approach to helping individuals with eating disorders in 2003 with website around eating disorders [updated link and description]. She is the author of The American Dietetic Association Pocket Guide to Eating Disorders and Director of Training and Education for Ranch 2300 Collegiate Eating Disorders Treatment Program [Update: dead link removed]. She is available for presentations and training workshops, and can be reached through her website, www.UnderstandingNutrition.com [link updated].

1. What is an eating disorder?

An eating disorder is the name we give to a chemical problem in the brain that causes a person to use food and eating-related behaviors in inappropriate ways. It is similar to the brain problem that causes a person to use drugs or gambling (for examples) in inappropriate ways. Since scientists/doctors have not been able to identify yet the exact brain problem, we identify eating disorders based on the visible symptoms and behaviors.

2. What factors contribute to or cause eating disorders?

The main contributing factor (as we understand it to date) is a problem with brain chemistry. This problem can be innate (something a person is born with, even if it is not revealed until a later age), or it can be something that is caused by stress, which damages the functioning of the brain, or most likely, it is a combination of the two.

Once the brain chemistry problem is in place, it makes eating disorder behaviors seem desirable, because they modulate brain chemistry. For example, binge-eating changes brain chemistry, because an overload of tryptophan (found in carbohydrates) increases the level of serotonin in the brain. Serotonin gives a feeling of calm to an anxious person. Another example is that self-induced vomiting causes a change in brain chemistry, similar to exercise. When someone with an eating disorder-prone brain is in a panic, vomiting provides them with relief. This behavior then becomes the person’s go-to ‘solution’ for managing stress.

Because the stressor in the equation often comes from the environment, society’s attitudes toward weight and eating are often mentioned as contributing factors in creating eating disorders. The pressure that individuals feel to perform, to meet societal standards of attractiveness, of success, and so on can push them to trial eating disorder behaviors, such as skipping meals, overexercising, dieting, etc. If the person has the genetic or stress-caused brain chemistry problem that makes these behaviors biochemically ‘rewarding’, then he or she will adopt the behaviors on an ongoing basis as a ‘solution’ or self-medication.

3. I've heard that people, who struggle with eating disorders, have emotional connections to food. Is this true, false, or only slightly accurate?

It depends how you interpret ‘emotional connections to food.’ To be more accurate, I would rephrase it slightly into “people with eating disorders use food and eating-related behaviors (eg overeating, undereating, vomiting, overexercising, food rules, etc.) to help manage emotional stress.” So yes, there is an emotional connection with food, and certainly an unhealthy relationship with food, but not necessarily an “I love food!” type of emotional connection.

4. How are eating disorders treated?

The gold standard of eating disorder treatment to date is a three-pronged base of:

Nutritional Counseling (with the goal of nutritional replenishment and restoration, education about the appropriate role of food, and a healthy relationship with food),

Medical Treatment (management of any conditions that have been caused or exacerbated by the eating disorder, such as osteoporosis or osteopenia, thyroid or other hormonal problems, heart conditions, and so on)

Mental Health Treatment (includes both psychiatry, to manage brain chemistry and underlying or exacerbated issues such as depression, anxiety, ADD, OCD, bipolar disorder, chemical dependency, etc. AND psychotherapy, to heal emotional wounds that prolong the eating disorder and to teach skills for more appropriate coping with stress).

Added to those, any combination of group therapy; peer-led or 12-step support groups; family therapy; inpatient, residential, or day hospital care; plus adjunct therapies such as art therapy, movement therapy, equine therapy, and so on; may be recommended on an individual basis.

Interview: Kay Hymowitz of the Manhattan Institute

2012-01-05T08:00:00.011-06:00

One prediction I make is that the Millennial generation will have a low marriage rate (updated research post). However, there are other socioeconomic trends that play into my prediction - for instance, the growing emphasis on education can delay marital formation, as the claim by some media that young men and women seem to be drifting in different directions (this favors cohabitation over marriage). Kay Hymowitz has written articles and even a book based on research into a few of these observations. From her Manhattan Institute bio [updated link]:

Kay S. Hymowitz is the William E. Simon Fellow at the Manhattan Institute and a contributing editor of City Journal. She writes extensively on childhood, family issues, poverty, and cultural change in America.

Hymowitz is the author of 4 books including Marriage and Caste in America: Separate and Unequal Families in a Post-Marital Age and Liberation's Children: Parents and Kids in a Postmodern Age. Her newest book, Manning Up: How the Rise of Women Is Turning Men Into Boys [updated links], was published by Basic Books in March, 2011.

Ms. Hymowitz has also written for many major publications including The New York Times, the Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, The New Republic, New York Newsday, The Public Interest, The Wilson Quarterly, and Commentary.

In addition to her writing, Hymowitz has presented her work at many conferences, most recently at "A New Era: Defining Civil Rights in the 21st Century," sponsored by the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights She sits on the board of the journal National Affairs and of Future of Children, a publication of the Brookings Institute and the Woodrow Wilson School. She has also discussed her work on numerous radio and television programs.

A native of Philadelphia, Hymowitz has degrees in English literature from Brandeis, Tufts, and Columbia University. She and her husband have three grown children and live in Brooklyn.

1. America tends to encourage its children to go to school for a good job in the business world. Suppose a young person decided against that (due to a growing zeitgeist questioning education), what three things would you advise that person?

I agree that college has been oversold. But now I fear the same is happening with the drop-out, start-up romance inspired by Steve Jobs and Bill Gates. Still, if you’re thinking of skipping college, keep in mind the following:

One, you are only 17 (or 18) and you probably don’t know much about yourself or about the way the world works. At its best, college can provide a time out to do some more growing up before you are set loose. But if you are someone who is very independent and self-motivated, if you have an idea of something you really want to do, if you can wake up in the morning knowing that it’s completely up to you to figure out how to make that happen without panicking, or without putting the pillow over your head and going back to sleep, go for it.

Two, avoid the “grand tour” and barista traps. The best way to learn about how to align your interests and the work place is to get a job. Don’t assume you’ll figure it out by travelling through South America. And don’t put it off by taking a job at Starbucks unless absolutely necessary. You need time in the workplace just to figure out the incredible variety and complexity of jobs today. Do you know what a risk analyst does? A script supervisor? A content strategist? Probably not. There’s a world out there of new and often exciting possibilities that you’ll need to learn about on your own.

Three: be ready to change your mind, maybe several times. People often have preconceptions about what kind of work would make them happy, only to find out they had no idea what the daily grind feels like. My son graduated from college, decided to follow his “dream” job as a sports announcer. After cold calling hundreds of people, developing tapes, offering to help a fledgling team for free, sleeping on floors in strange people’s apartments in strange cities, he got a position as an announcer for a minor league baseball team in Florida. Within six months, he realized he didn’t love sports as much as he had at 16. He took a job as a producer at MSNBC, got inspired by some of the pundits and commentators, decided to get a master’s degree in public policy, and at 30 went to work in international development in Africa. He never, ever could have seen that coming at 22.

2. According to Pew (as of 2010), the Millennial generation at its current age (18-28) has the lowest marriage rate compared to other American generations at that age. What factors have contributed to this? Also, how would you respond to people who predict that the Millennial generation will have a low marriage rate?

Let’s disentangle a few important strands of this discussion. It’s almost impossible to talk about what’s happening to marriage in the United States, among Millennials or anyone else, without talking about class. The widely discussed changes in marriage – by which people usually mean high divorce rates, nonmarital births, and nonmarriage – is concentrated among the lower and working class. That group is more likely to have children in their early or mid twenties while single or cohabiting. If trends continue as they have, they will eventually marry, though often not to the father or mother of their children.

The college educated middle class – and I presume that includes most of The Echo Boom Bomb's readers – do things differently. They are waiting to marry and to have children, often well into their 30’s. They have good reason to do that. Preparing for a high end career takes years of education, internships, fellowships, moving between jobs, possibly between different cities or even different countries. (See above.) It’s awfully hard to coordinate two careers during this time.

Does this mean that Millennials will not marry in their 30’s or even their 40’s? Not based on my own observations - or the data. The percentage of educated women who get married has increased over the past decades; it’s the less educated who are marrying less. Also, the large majority of young people continue to say they want children someday. College educated men and women know from first-hand observation what research shows over and over: a child has a better chance at doing well in life – including graduating from college - if he or she grows up with her stable, married mother and father

It’s worth mentioning, by the way, that disentangling the data in this way casts some doubt on the idea that marriage is “obsolete,” as in, no longer useful. Marriage continues to do what it’s always done: provide the most promising environment for raising the next generation. That may seem irrelevant to your life in your twenties; it won’t by the time you reach, say, 35.

3. What can be done with the educational system - if anything is necessary - to correct some of these social problems that you mention in your book Manning Up, such as young men avoiding/delaying maturity?

Up until fairly recently, people in their twenties knew exactly what was expected of them in the social realm: they were supposed to find someone to marry and start their families. Now, for the college educated at any rate, the twenties are primarily a decade for establishing a career. The social scripts – when or whether to marry, who asks for a date, who pays, whether or when to call after a hook up - have been tossed up in the air and have yet to come down. I think the ambiguities are particularly puzzling for men. Twentysomething women have more degrees, more money, and arguably more ambition than they do. Yet a lot of women still seem to want and expect some traditional moves of mating and dating from them. At the same time, they expect to be treated as equals. You have to be an emotional genius to figure it all out.

Adding to the tension is the biological clock. Women are aware, either consciously or not, that if they are planning to have a family, they’d better be settled with a husband by their mid 30’s when their fertility takes a big drop. That means they’re more likely to get serious about finding a mate in their later 20’s. With no biological pressure, men don’t have the same time frame. Some of them continue to think of themselves as boys – or “dudes” – and to think of adulthood as something way off in the distance.

Editor's Note: Kay has a point here and science agrees. Dan Eisenberg's research might indicate that older fathers carry an advantage that younger fathers don't possess. This could provide an evolutionary explanation why a few young women might prefer an older man, and also why a few men may not see the logic in maturing quickly - an older father could pass on genetice advantages to his offspring.

I don’t think the educational system has much of a role in resolving these tensions. But for the sake of their own well being, it would be a good idea for Millennials to admit that they will probably marry and have children someday, just like previous generations have, and to think of their twenties as leading up to that major life task rather than just time for hooking up and hanging out. Freud used to say that happiness requires finding satisfaction in two things: love and work. He was wrong about a lot, but that little observation holds up pretty well.

Update: updated a few errors, most notably, the last name!

Interview: Stephanie Coontz on Contemporary Families

2011-12-20T08:00:00.014-06:00

I've written extensively on marriage and the Millennial generation (updated research post). However, I've left out the issue of family from this socioeconomic analysis. I recently interviewed Stephanie Coontz, who is the Director of Research and Public Education for the Council on Contemporary Families. A brief bio:

Stephanie Coontz teaches history and family studies at The Evergreen State College in Olympia, WA, and is Director of Research and Public Education for the Council on Contemporary Families [Update: dead link removed]. She wrote the book The Way We Never Were: American Families and the Nostalgia Trap. Her work has been translated into French, Spanish, Greek, German, Chinese, Norwegian, Swedish, and Japanese.

Her work is not only helpful to us in order to understand family history, but also how families are evolving.

1. How have American families changed in the past century?

People tend to think that change has been linear, but that is not at all the case. 100 years ago, there was a sexual revolution going on every bit as shocking to contemporaries as anything in the past 20 years has been to modern Americans. There were also more immigrant families in America than today, and the divorce rate was rising precipitously, whereas today it has been falling for the past 30 years. And many more children spent some of their childhood in a single parent family, though that was more often a result of death than divorce. Eighty-two years ago, the US fell into the Great Depression. Divorce rates fell, but domestic violence, desertion, and abuse increased. Then came WWII, which led to a marriage and baby boom followed by a surge of divorce after the war. By 1946, 1 in 3 marriages was ending in divorce. The fact that so many marriages broke up so quickly is one of the reasons that divorce rates stayed fairly steady during the 1950s -- a lot of the shaky marriages had already ended in divorce. Most of us think of the 1950s as the era of the traditional family, but in fact the family arrangements of that day were very unusual. There were more male breadwinner families than than ever before or since. And the age of marriage reached an all-time low in 1960, with nearly half of all women married by age 20.

Still, taking all these variations into account, there have been some clear trends. The age of marriage has been rising steadily since the late 1960s and has now surpassed its previous historical high (which occurred in 1890). Premarital sex, cohabitation, and even having children out of wedlock are far more acceptable than in the past. And there have been interesting trade-offs: Men are doing much more childcare and housework in the past -- when they are present. But there are also more absent fathers then in the past. Successful marriages are fairer, more intimate, and more beneficial to all their members than in the past, but the same things that have made them so have also increased the alternatives to marriage and made an unsatisfying marriage seem less bearable to most people. And of course the increase in acceptance of same-sex couples has been stunningly rapid just in the past 20 years.

2. How would you address the claim made by some media that there's been a decline in family values?

If you look at the Pew Research Center polls on family life you will find that although Americans no longer believe that marriage is essential to a successful life, this does not mean they are giving up on marriage and other committed relationships. Most people say their family relationships are closer than those of their parents or grandparents. And millennials are more likely than older Americans to believe that adult children have the obligation to take in an aging parent if the parent needs assistance. Yes, there is more premarital sex than in the past, but sexual victimization rates have declined substantially in the past 20 years. So have domestic violence rates. Intergenerational relations are also closer. Even before the recession, we were seeing an increase in multigenerational households, partly because of economics, but partly because there has been a decline in generational mistrust, as a result of more democratic childrearing and more socializing between unmarried 20-somethings and their parents.

But of course, every time we solve one problem, we do create new challenges. The more freedom people gain to cultivate their own talents and pursue their own passions, the more possibility they have of going down dead-end streets or getting lost on an unmarked trail. The key is for us to try to figure out how to build on our new possibilities while minimizing our new vulnerabilities. One reason I volunteer my time at the Council on Contemporary Families is because this is an organization that does not waste time bemoaning what we have supposedly lost. Instead, CCF researchers and practitioners accept that family diversity is here to stay and try to get out the research and best-practice findings that will allow every family to build on its potential strengths and compensate for its weaknesses.

3. What major concerns do you see - if any - for the future of families in the United States, and how can we address these (if needed)?

One big concern is the widening gap between low-income, poorly educated Americans and highly-educated, more economically secure Americans in their access to stable, satisfying relationships. Research suggests that the answer lies not in promoting marriage per se but in working on two fronts at once: improving the economic prospects of men and women without a college degree and providing relationship support and training for couples, especially couples with children, whether married, cohabiting or apart. See this, for example.

For Americans who do have good jobs, there is quite a different concern. Increasingly, well-paid and challenging jobs require such intense work hours that it is very difficult for men and women to combine their family responsibilities with their professional ones. At all income levels, Americans need stricter limits on the work week, more generous and subsidized leaves such as those found in Europe and the Nordic countries, and affordable, reliable child care. Given the shortage of jobs, this would be a good time to consider the 35-hour work week, and of course we need to reform health care so that families have more flexibility to work part-time or some protections when they are laid off.

Generation Y Fails In Privacy; 3 Reasons Why

2011-12-15T08:00:00.042-06:00

Critics of Generation Y level statements that tend to be true about young people in general; for instance, young people tend to be entitled, and Echo Boomers certainly are. One criticism of Generation Y that I would offer, though seldom mentioned by critics, is disrespecting privacy. An article on IT rules briefly mentions this from a study:

Even worse, one out of three college students revealed that they do not think about privacy nor do they mind sharing personal data online. These respondents also said that they believe that privacy boundaries are loosening.
Yet, one in four experience identity theft before the age of 30, while at least two out of five college students know of friends or family members who have experienced identity theft.
"To us, there is a disconnect here that people are sharing so much but they're seeing grave consequences," Olechowski said.

Based on observations (my own and others), I would adduce that some Echo Boomers either take their privacy for granted, or fail to understand the importance of privacy. This social trend is new as privacy has historically been a right that Americans value. On top of that, philosophers throughout history (Solomon, Plato, Nietzsche, Tzu) advise reticence.

Humorous Story

A while ago I watched Into the Wild with friends and their takeaway of the movie was to share experiences with others. Obviously there is some truth to this, but this can also be taken too far. Echo Boomers love this movie because it justifies their social media attention craze - "I'm sharing my experiences with others!" In most cases, they really value attention. Think about activities that Echo Boomers don't share and it's often because it doesn't get attention or it gets the wrong kind of attention.

For people who've traveled to other cultures, they see this contrast. In the US, you show off as much as you have - and Echo Boomers take this very far. However, this could get you killed in other countries. If you have resources, you live as if you don't have resources. You also don't overshare details because this could also endanger you (or be misinterpreted). The reason why I bring this up is that Echo Boomers will often state, "Everyone wants attention." This is completely false! There are many people who want to stay far away from attention.

Why Echo Boomers Don't Value Privacy

So why do Echo Boomers share so much personal information and fail to respect their own and others' privacy? 3 possible reasons:

Information is being used as a way to obtain mass attention (ie: "attention-whoring"), not necessarily to inform people of something valuable (ie: "Facebook IPO set at $[x] billion").
Assuming the previous reason, this would mean that private information would receive more attention than common information. For instance, seeing something unusual at the mall is less amazing than engaging in borderline illegal behavior. The latter, in the past, might remain unmentioned, but in a world where everyone is shouting at the top of their lungs for attention, the latter stands out. In a battle for attention, you got to stand out!
Assuming the previous two reasons, value is perceived as a concept determined solely by others. For instance, if most of your friends think your experience was awesome, it's awesome, even if you didn't necessarily think your experience was awesome. In other words, you don't determine value; others determine value for you (based on popularity). Technology changes the dimension of social relationships, and privacy (like empathy) is one of those factors. I realize this is an extremely philosophical point but if you stop and think about this point, it has powerful indications about Echo Boomers (and value in general).

I'm not writing that any of these are true in objective reality. These are how Echo Boomers see privacy - they don't value it. Privacy to an Echo Boomer is a lack of attention. They want attention! They're concept of value is centered around what other people value. This is why attention whoring is so popular among Echo Boomers.

What Will This Mean For Businesses?

What this means going forward is that Echo Boomers are going to think that others' business is their business. This won't only affect laws, it will affect businesses. Echo Boomers won't think that your business should be private, especially if they think their peers should know. They will make moral judgements on the basis of what their peers think. This also will affect Echo Boomers themselves because their peers' view of what they do will affect their own view. Suppose that an Echo Boomer has an amazing night but his friends think he wasted his time. His view will change because of how his peers think, not because of what he thinks. Therefore, it's not what an Echo Boomer thinks about your product, it's what Echo Boomers think about your product.

This is why social media use is so popular with Echo Boomers - they are very concerned with what their peers value. A generation that cares little about what others think would rarely share their life. This is both positive and negative. On the one hand, this could be extremely negative for businesses when it comes to protecting private information. On the positive, you only need to get so many Echo Boomers vocal about your product before they share it with their network and convince other Echo Boomers it has value.

As to how this all plays out in the long run, see the Eastern Bloc and Soviet Union from history.

What Industries Will Be Winners or Losers With Generation Y?

2011-12-06T08:00:00.006-06:00

What They Want Now and What They Will Want

Echo Boomers are changing our society in a multitude of ways. The Millennial generation doesn't want what its parents wanted, and if you want your business to succeed or if you want to lower the probability that you'll be in the unemployment line, take note of the winners and losers with this generation now and in the future.

Winner: The Rise of the Renters.

I could write pages on why Echo Boomers won't own homes like former generations, but I think numbers and graphs tell a better story. Only a third of Echo Boomers express interest in ever owning a home. And the current data?

[Update: dead image]

I expect that things will change over the next few decades, but for now, real estate agents will struggle with this generation in selling homes. Of course, if real estate agents focus their energy on landlords they might succeed. Otherwise, if you rent out decent homes or apartments, prepare for a large customer base among Echo Boomers, but be aware that they can move out quickly if they don't like it. They will socially express their contempt too.

Before I continue writing about Echo Boomers current preference for real estate, one update to make here after having hundreds of conversations with people about this point involves both Echo Boomers' future preference and iGenZ. Right now Echo Boomers prefer renting. This does not mean they will prefer to rent in the future. Likewise, as iGenZ matures, following generations tend to differ than the previous generation. I would not be surprised if iGenZ actually wants to own homes earlier than Echo Boomers as the same age. Think carefully about what I am writing here, as it carries statistical implications. An Echo Boomer at 25 may not care to own a home, but an iGenZ at 25 will more than likely want to own a home. (I'm not comparing groups at the same year of time, such as 2015, but at the same age in their maturity.)

As for the type of real estate - Echo Boomers are the social generation. They love living around their friends.

Winner: Education Is the New Homeownership For Echo Boomers

Yes, I think that education is in a serious bubble (see When Will the Higher Education Bubble Pop?). But I doubt that the Millennial generation will recognize this. The reason for my doubt: over half of Echo Boomers state interest in pursuing a degree, and a third of Echo Boomers with degrees already want to go to graduate school or further their education in some way.

The next generation (iGenZ) may see the error in their older siblings ways: too much faith in education. But for now, there's no indication among the Echo Boomers I speak to that they're changing their view on education. As I've stated in my posts, the stories Echo Boomers tell about education over time will foreshadow whether iGenZ and future generations respect higher education.

The winners here are the trade schools and community colleges - not only do you save Echo Boomers money, Echo Boomers tend to recommend these places to their friends. In fact, when other Echo Boomers go back to school during an education bubble a community college or trade school will hold the highest appeal. Large universities still attract top students, so for now, they're winning too.

Loser and Winner: Marriage Is Dead, But Other Opportunities Exist

If you're in school, and you're considering becoming a divorce attorney or marital counselor, beware: only 21% of Echo Boomers are married! Those may have been the hot professions at one time (especially divorce attorneys), but the future seems dim for them now. Unless those 21% of Echo Boomers line up in divorce court or try to "work things out," the need for divorce law or marital counseling may be history. You could always do the bureaucratic thing and overcomplicate their life in some other way - that is what both of your professions are good at.

Keep in mind that while Echo Boomers are ditching marriage, they seem to favor serial monogamy, which might become its own profitable industry. For instance, Susan Walsh asserted about the hook up culture in our interview:

I see hookup culture sticking around for a long while, but there is some backlash already occurring. ... HPV is causing cancers in both sexes, and there is a strain of gonorrhea in the UK, which is now considered untreatable. Of course, there’s the very real possibility of a new, opportunistic virus, much as we saw with AIDS in the early 80s. A worsening of the outlook in this area could create behavioral changes.

Behavioral changes may create more marriages, but if we see increased STDs or increased protective methods against these diseases, some businesses will need to create these products - whether prescription drugs or advanced protective measures.

And with marriage rates declining, Echo Boomers seem to be putting their money into other places: the fitness industry, the outdoor industry, and the fashion industry. In other words, you still have many other opportunities to have a wide customer base. Keep an eye out for the single Echo Boomers and watch where they spend their money (see Products and Services for Single Female Echo Boomers and Products and Services for Single Male Echo Boomers).

Other winners:

1. Technology - if you're in the engineering profession, prepare to work. Since I've been speaking with engineers at several local colleges, robotics seems to come up the most. There is a growing demand for electrical engineers to perfect the robotics industry. This cuts both ways, however, as many engineer friends would tell you that they will eventually not be needed. I agree, but I think we're still two decades (and maybe more) away from this moment.

Don't forget that this point means technology will do well even in situations where it makes no sense. Even as an Echo Boomer, I cannot understand Facebook or other social media. You socialize in person. But Echo Boomers are not like this! Even though something makes no sense (and may even be something they regret), don't overthink the possible success. Echo Boomers do what others do; they are not an individualistic generation, so they lack the reflection ability to evaluate if what they're doing aligns with their values.

2. Medical - Echo Boomers will need more medical care as they age. Keep in mind, the obesity rate the in the United States is growing, and this offers medical opportunities for doctors, nurses and those in the research field. I do not expect Echo Boomers to have longer life expectancies than their parents, so they will need medical earlier than you might expect.

3. Innovative Science - the world faces major hurdles in the twenty-first century, and this industry will boom if science continues to overcome these hurdles. Innovative Science includes, but is not limited to, stem cell research, fuel cell technology, electric cars and transportation, robotics, and 3D printing. For Echo Boomers closest to these industries, China and many countries in Asia will make the best destinations, as their lack of bureaucracy favors innovation over the United States.

4. Green Energy Industry - Echo Boomers like environmentally friendly companies, and green energy not only saves money, but builds a sustainable world. Echo Boomers are unlikely to forget $4 gallon per gallon of gas. In fact, my theory of electric cars doing well in the future centers around the pain that Echo Boomers felt when gas was $4 a gallon.

Generation Y: 3 Social Shifts In Perception

2011-11-30T08:00:00.097-06:00

Column Quick Summary:
Echo Boomers define themselves through their relationships. Echo Boomers value time over money. Echo Boomers buy products based on peer tips.

Echo Boomers see high value in their peers, whether that's in the form of personal relationships or peer suggestions. Facebook, MySpace and social media in general have contributed to a world where it's easy for Echo Boomers to engage their peers. For instance, the Millennial generation uses these social media at work, whether employers like this or not. Therefore, employers should note a few trends concerning Generation Y.

1. Echo Boomers define themselves through their relationships. Not only can you see this through social media, Echo Boomers also place a high value on personal interactions outside of work. In fact, the phrase "I have a life" came up a lot while talking with Echo Boomers when they mentioned that they disliked their current job.

I've constantly cautioned thought leaders that Echo Boomers perceive value through others, not through their own critical thought. Note that this is a result of people who define themselves and their lives through others. "Others think" means "I think."

But there's another point that thought leaders should consider. Because of social media's rise, Echo Boomers don't allow many of their relationships to end. For instance, Echo Boomers could never relate to this song. Why would a chapter of your life be through when you can just stay connected on Facebook?

In the past, part of growth and maturity meant letting go of relationships - and not for a negative reason. As life changed, people's presence with who they were around changed. Think of a young man hanging out with his player friends, but after becoming a father, spending time with other dads. Echo Boomers aren't like this: they'll be dads, but also still stay in touch with those player friends of theirs. (You can sense the tension this will create, even if Echo Boomers don't realize this.)

2. Echo Boomers value time over money. Note [Update: dead link removed]:

And time is more valued than money. Millennials want flexible schedules and may prefer additional vacation days to cash bonuses.

In other words, offering more money to Echo Boomers to complete extra tasks per week may be the most ineffective strategy. A company could possibly approach this generation with the idea of once you finish your work for the week, you're done regardless of how little time it took you and succeed. However, this would require a clear definition of success along with self-honesty about what the company actually needs.

3. Echo Boomers buy products based on what their friends or other peers mention [Update: dead link removed]:

Millennials are more likely to buy based on peer recommendations.

As I frequently tell thought leaders, Echo Boomers determine value through others. They don't stop and consider their vision, then determine what connects them to their vision in the most effective way. This is a mission-driven person. Echo Boomers determine what to do by asking their peers. They determine value based on their peers.

What this means is that social media and social avenues might be the most effective way to market to the Millennial generation, whereas normal advertising might indicate that your company sells poor quality products. This also means that your "normal" advertising should have a social element to it.

Note and update: I get asked about this point a lot from company leaders because, to quote them, "don't we all determine value because of others" (ie: keeping up with the Jones')?

No. Baby Boomers, as an example, wanted to get away from members of their generation. Generation Xers more than any generation up to this point valued self-reliance. If other members of both generations didn't value those things, it didn't change the pattern. Echo Boomers are not like this (for now and this could change over time). They determine value on the basis of what others think. You will determine very early when you speak with Echo Boomers that they have no mission; their mission is built from what others do.

As a generation, they spend hours looking at what others are doing (social media being a popular example of this). A mission driven person would prefer staring at the wall and coming up with ideas than looking at Facebook.

Is part of this youth? Yes. But this is also an effect of believing that you should always stay in touch with friends that you knew 20 years ago. And as you have a mixture of people with different agendas, you spoil your growth because of inconsistent input (think about the parable of the sower and the seeds).

The Echo Boom Bomb

Jason the Bartender On Life Without Technology

The Series

Background

Had To Ask...

Notice the Major Theme

Review

Quick Acknowledgement

Terminology

Reminder

Brief Overview of Research Approach

Millennial Financial Data (As Of 2011)

Prediction: Education Bubble and Regret

Humorous Prediction: The Education Bubble Popped First

Prediction: Healthcare

Prediction: Millennial Women Will Make More Money

Prediction: Millennial Marriage Rate

Observation: Ambitious Young Men Leave the United States

Prediction: The United States Becomes Socialist

Prediction: Products

Acknowledgement

Other Research

A Final Word of Gratitude

Mark the Plumber On Success, Work and Early Retirement

Background

Had To Ask...

Millennials Don't Know What Inflation Is, So ...

Is There A Bitcoin Bubble?

Why Bitcoin Is A Bubble

Why Bitcoin Might Carry Value

Final Thoughts

What Real Estate Do Millennials Want?

Millennial Women Will Make More Money

Relevant Research Point

"Exceptions Include, But Are Not Limited To..."

The Next Billion Dollar Idea

1. Horror Stories

2. Advertising Becomes More Effective

3. Meet Little Data - It's Cheaper

4. No One's Perfect

5. That's Not Your Community

Julie Zeilinger: Challenges Facing Millennial Women

Feminism, Millennial Women and the Other Side

As I've predicted that Millennial females will make more money than Millennial males [updated research post], I've gotten insight and met various thought leaders who are themselves Echo Boomers. One leading voice has been Julie Zeilinger.

Who Is Julie Zeilinger?

So, Just Had To Ask ... (Interview)

Jed Kolko: Millennials and the Real Estate Market

About that Housing Market ...

Who Is Jed Kolko?

So, Just Had To Ask ... (Interview)

Med School Blows Past the Education Bubble

The Supply and Demand Problem

Ideology Over Pragmatism

The Automation Myth

"Too Many Young Men In STEM Fields"

The Unintended Effects

U.S. Males Dump Marriage

Impacts (Update From Private Discussions)

Which Is A Bigger Bubble: Tattoos or Degrees?

Dan Eisenberg Discusses Telomere Length and Age

Interview: “I Can’t Afford My Private Student Loans”

"Give Us Facebook Or We'll Take A Lower Paying Job!"

*I write him intentionally because I don't know a single female around my age without a Facebook account. By contrast, about 10% of my male friends around my age do not have Facebook accounts.

Interview: Matt Kramer On Predatory Leadership

Matt's Sources:

Who Is Generation Z?

Basic Introduction

Technology Native

Lacking Basic Critical Thought

Interview: Jessica Setnick on Eating Disorders

Interview: Kay Hymowitz of the Manhattan Institute

Interview: Stephanie Coontz on Contemporary Families

Generation Y Fails In Privacy; 3 Reasons Why

Humorous Story

Why Echo Boomers Don't Value Privacy

What Will This Mean For Businesses?

What Industries Will Be Winners or Losers With Generation Y?

What They Want Now and What They Will Want

Winner: Education Is the New Homeownership For Echo Boomers

Loser and Winner: Marriage Is Dead, But Other Opportunities Exist

I write him* intentionally because I don't know a single female around my age without a Facebook account. By contrast, about 10% of my male friends around my age do not have Facebook accounts.