The Equity Kicker

Going off grid for three weeks–in India

Nic Brisbourne — Mon, 03 Jun 2013 17:38:00 +0000

I’ve now been blogging for six and a half years, posting just about every day that I’ve worked, only pausing for holidays and weekends. I don’t usually write to let you all know when I will be away and not blogging because I don’t want to tell the world that my house will be empty (as was the case last week). This time it’s different because I’m not leaving behind an empty house, because this will be the longest break since I started blogging, and because I will most likely be totally off grid and unable to respond even to comments.

Tomorrow I fly to India where I will stay at the Swami Rama Sadhaka Grama ashram in the foothills of the Himalayas near Rishikesh. There may be some internet available, but the safe assumption is not, and too much time online would defeat the purpose of the visit which is to study meditation and yoga, and to unwind.

I’ve been meditating for three months now, mostly using the GetSomeHeadSpace app and I’ve got a lot out of the experience. The meditation itself, ranging from 10-20mins per day, is enjoyable, and my mind is calmer and clearer for the rest of the day afterwards, but most importantly the process of observing my thoughts brings a sense of perspective which I think makes me a little bit more effective in many things that I do. And then, on top of all that, there is an increasing amount of research which shows that meditating contributes significantly to long term brain health.

I’m also excited by the opportunity to spend what I hope will be quality time with people from a very different culture. I travelled a lot when I was younger and enjoyed seeing and experiencing different cultures and ways of life, something that gets difficult when the responsibilities of work and family mount up.

Not that I’m complaining – I love my family and my job. And that makes this a good moment to say thank you to my wife Fiona and to my partners at DFJ Esprit for supporting me in this little adventure.

See you all in three weeks, when I expect to be back blogging stronger than ever.

Roll up, Roll up – European tech companies undervalued

Nic Brisbourne — Fri, 24 May 2013 15:02:58 +0000

Ben Rooney has an article up today on the Wall Street Journal reporting that European tech companies are valued on lower multiples than US businesses in M&A transactions:

The amount paid for a company as a multiple of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or Ebitda, for U.S.-based companies rose from 11 times in 2011 to 11.3 times in 2012. Over the same period, European multiples fell from 10.6 to 9.9, according to the report by American Appraisal, a global valuation consultancy.

In other words there’s a buying opportunity in European for global tech companies. And we should tell the world about it so that everyone comes shopping and rights this market imbalance. I might blog this data again on Monday!

As Ben points out This buying opportunity counts double for companies like Apple, Oracle, Microsoft and Cisco because they have substantial overseas cash reserves which will get taxed if they bring them back to America.

Building businesses around passionate communities of users

Nic Brisbourne — Thu, 23 May 2013 13:28:20 +0000

There is a great opinion piece by Lawrence Lenihan on Business of Fashion today arguing that we are killing many fashion startups by over-capitalising them relative to their market opportunity. Right-sizing funding is a topic that is dear to my heart, but the interesting point here is why over-funding is becoming a problem. Over funding is becoming a problem because the current generation of fashion companies are more niche focused than their predecessors. Here’s why:

The Internet completely changes the model of building a fashion company by enabling the creator of the brand to find customers first rather than finding a gatekeeper who controls the access to customers first. It removes the huge capital barriers to entry of building a physical store and the previous constraints around accessing a geographically diverse set of customers. It also provides a platform for community that enables a brand’s customers to participate in the building of the brand.

But, to stand out above the noise created by massive corporate brands, a new fashion brand needs to mean something more than the incumbents for a customer to switch. How can Nasty Gal succeed against H&M or Zara or Forever 21? By having a point of view! The brilliance of these new companies is that they recognised that people were craving for a point of view, something special and different and they gave it to them in a new form and in a way in which their customers participate almost as intimate friends rather than mere consumers…..

This sounds great except for one thing: by meaning something so much more to a given customer, they mean so much more to a far fewer number of customers (and might even alienate others who don’t share similar values, interests and aspirations). It has to be so: you mean more because you mean something more specific, something more special, something more intimate. Because they are so specific, by definition, the maximum market size for these companies must be smaller than the market sizes for traditional store-based concepts that must target more generally to survive.

This isn’t only true for fashion. There are also opportunities in other consumer industries to create intimate connections with customers by building community and having a point of view. Look at MakieLab in toys, Local Motors in cars, or DIY Drones in unmanned aerial vehicles. Success in this new world requires better products than of old and a passion or zeal that speaks to customers and that they can carry with them as part of their own identity. Authenticity and great communication skills have also become more important than they were before.

New Pew Internet data–Twitter growing, but Facebook still teens’ favourite

Nic Brisbourne — Wed, 22 May 2013 11:29:14 +0000

As you can see from the latest Pew Internet research Facebook is still used by far more teenagers than any other social sites, and that they were used by more teenagers in 2012 than in 2011. It is of course possible that more teenagers are using Facebook, but they are doing so less frequently, but from this data it doesn’t appear that Facebook is losing the battle for young users.

Also of note is the rapid growth in the popularity of Twitter amongst teenagers. It’s great to see they are getting use out of the platform and interesting that young people are flocking to a social media site that was first popular with adults. Usually it’s the other way round.

Note that the percentages in the table are percentages of social media using teenagers, which is only 81% of the total number of teenagers.

Finally, Pew also looked at how teenagers’ sharing habits have changed since 2006. They found that they are sharing more personal data, but that they are careful about what they share and who they share it with. That was pleasing to read as I like to think we are headed towards a more open world where people share more information, but do so in a considered and responsible manner.

There is more detail on the sure

Why Tumblr is not Twitter or Facebook

Nic Brisbourne — Tue, 21 May 2013 11:39:27 +0000

Following Yahoo’s $1.1bn acquisition of Tumblr Pandodaily published an article asking why Tumblr and Foursquare, New York’s top consumer web startups, haven’t had the same success as Twitter and Facebook. First the numbers, as measured by 2012 revenues Foursquare and Tumblr are a long way behind:

Pando points out that one would expect Tumblr and Foursquare’s proximity to New York’s strong advertising industry to give them an advantage over their Valley competitors when it comes to building an advertising business, but then comes to the conclusion that the reason they fell behind is more likely to do with access to cash and talent. Valley based companies are more easily able to raise money and have a larger pool of people with scaling experience to recruit from.

That argument makes sense, and I’m sure explains part of the discrepancy in performance, but for me the bigger reason is that the use cases for Twitter and Facebook are important parts of our every day lives whereas Tumblr and Foursquare are more nice-to-haves. Keeping up with news and staying in touch with friends are more important for more people than self expression and checking in/restaurant discovery. More important use cases means more people coming back more often and greater tolerance for ads, and hence much bigger opportunity.

Will there be a wave of ‘maker-centric’ companies?

Nic Brisbourne — Mon, 20 May 2013 13:04:47 +0000

Venturebeat has an article up this morning titled Startups and big corporations embrace the maker movement which reports that the annual Maker Faire has this year introduced a ‘Startup Pavillion’ which it cites as evidence that the maker movement is moving beyond hobbies to being a ‘rich source of economic potential’. Here’s a selection of the 20-odd startups at Maker Faire:

SeeedStudio, an “open hardware company develops and brings to market innovative and cost-effective prototyping solutions for hobbyists and aspiring inventors.”
RedBearLab, which makes a wearable BlueTooth 4.0 board you can use to interface with an iPhone or Android device.
Formlabs, makers of a high-resolution 3D printer aimed at engineers and design professionals.
Deezmaker, another 3D printer vendor, this one aimed at making an affordable printer called the Bukobot.
BioLite, a company that aims to reduce third-world pollution with a small wood-fueled stove that converts heat from the fire into usable electricity, improving combustion while allowing users to charge small devices.
BlinkM, makers of multicolored, programmable LED lights for use in your electronics projects.
Smitten, a maker of handmade “artisan truffles.”

For the last couple of weeks I’ve been asking myself if we are witnessing the beginning of a major trend here or whether there will only ever be a small number of successful ‘maker-centric’ or innovative hardware companies.

Here are my observations and emerging thoughts:

the number of startups in this space is definitely increasing – there are a small number that have been around for a few years, like Jawbone, Micro Mobility Scooters, GoPro, and DFJ Esprit portfolio company Graze, and a much larger number that have been founded more recently, including Nest, Sphero, Local Motors, and Pebble.
A number of factors are combining that enable faster product iteration in hardware

3D printing is reducing the cost of prototyping
Short run manufacturing is getting cheaper and cheaper due to robot manufacturing and improved supply chain management techniques
The labour component of manufacturing is falling increasing the feasibility of local manufacturing

Kickstarter and other crowdfunding platforms are radically improving capital efficiency because customers are now paying for product months in advance and because first demand validation is now virtually free
Arduino and other open source hardware platforms are reducing costs in the same way open source software reduced costs for web companies
Companies are aggregating global audiences and selling direct making new product categories viable which wouldn’t have worked when national distribution limited customers to single countries – companies which build communities around their interest area are particularly powerful in this regard – e.g. DIY Drones
Consumers like buying from companies that embrace the ‘maker’ ethos – i.e. companies that have a human face and a genuine interest in delighting their customers
In contrast to other investment themes that turned out big it is unclear how many opportunities there are in innovative hardware – most of the companies listed above look obvious in hindsight, but it isn’t easy to list large numbers of new opportunities in the way it was for ecommerce or mobile, or to see how these companies will transform the world in the way social media has
It is still unclear how much capital these businesses will require or what the exit market will be like

Writing and reading back this list it strikes me that whilst it is too early to know how big this wave will be there is more than enough going on to want to start making some investments.

An inevitable tension between investors and entrepreneurs

Nic Brisbourne — Fri, 17 May 2013 15:17:46 +0000

I’ve just read Bill Barnett’s article on Winning as a self-fulfilling prophecy which argues that optimists’ irrational belief in their chances of success makes them to try longer and harder to get there and makes them better motivators and leaders of teams. They are therefore more likely to succeed than people who are more even headed. He cites Steve Jobs as an example:

Steve Jobs was said to have been surrounded by a “reality distortion field,” in that he would believe in possibilities even when others saw them as unthinkable. Of course, once Steve believed, then others would too – making his vision more likely to come true.

As an investor I want to back the entrepreneurs who are most likely to succeed, and as described above that means optimists. On top of that we also like optimists because they take on bigger challenges. So we back optimists. But we want our own decisions to be the best they can be, and that means seeing reality for what it really is.

Reading Bill Barnett’s article it struck me for the first time that one of the most common sources of post investment tension between investors and entrepreneurs is a tension between optimism and realism. When the relationship between investor and entrepreneur is strong that tension is healthy, but when the relationship breaks down it often leads to each side losing faith in the other’s judgement. Investors’ realism can start to look like (and may become) undue pessimism and scepticism, and entrepreneurs’ optimism can start to look like (and may become) naive optimism and an irrational unwillingness to change course.

I write this in the hope that it will help investors to better understand where entrepreneurs are coming from and vice versa, and thereby help to keep relationships trusting and healthy. There is more than a grain of truth in the old joke that the investor-entrepreneur relationship is like a marriage, but harder to get out of, and just like a marriage the relationship will work best when the differences are both understood and valued. Good investors understand that optimism is a very helpful trait and strong entrepreneurs value the check on their optimism that investors can provide.

Alibaba’s amazing job creation

Nic Brisbourne — Tue, 14 May 2013 14:27:00 +0000

The FT had an article over the weekend about the job creation in China that has come off the back of Alibaba’s amazing success. According the Chinese Ecommerce Research Centre in the last year alone the Chinese ecommerce industry created more than 12m jobs directly and more than 12m indirectly, and Alibaba controls over half of the market, implying they deserve credit for 7m new jobs last year.

The stats are a little woolly, but even if they are out by a factor of 10 this is a pretty remarkable achievement for a single company in a single year. And they were reported in the FT….

Reasons why startups fail

Nic Brisbourne — Mon, 13 May 2013 14:00:22 +0000

Paul Graham just published an essay which details eighteen reasons startups fail. As he points out, somewhat tongue in cheek, an exhaustive list of reasons why startups fail is actually a prescription for success, and therefore a very big ask. That doesn’t stop him trying though. And who better to have a go?

The whole essay is worth reading, but for those of you that don’t have time I’m going to pull out two of his points.

Firstly, Graham makes the point I have heard him say many times now, that by far the most common reason for startup failure is not making something users want. The eighteen reasons that follow are, in a sense, sub-reasons. Every time I hear this I make a mental note to myself make the question ‘how do you know users want what you are building?’ more prominent in our due diligence process, because at the end of the day if you build something people want then you are generating value and that means your company will most likely be worth something to somebody, even without a business model.

Secondly, I want to pull out a couple of quotes from reason 13. Raising too much money. I’ve said many times now that raising too much money can kill your company just as surely as raising too little money. It’s a counter-intuitive point and Graham explains it well:

The problem is not so much the money itself as what comes with it. As one VC who spoke at Y Combinator said, "Once you take several million dollars of my money, the clock is ticking." If VCs fund you, they’re not going to let you just put the money in the bank and keep operating as two guys living on ramen. They want that money to go to work. At the very least you’ll move into proper office space and hire more people. That will change the atmosphere, and not entirely for the better. Now most of your people will be employees rather than founders. They won’t be as committed; they’ll need to be told what to do; they’ll start to engage in office politics.

and:

Perhaps more dangerously, once you take a lot of money it gets harder to change direction. Suppose your initial plan was to sell something to companies. After taking VC money you hire a sales force to do that. What happens now if you realize you should be making this for consumers instead of businesses? That’s a completely different kind of selling. What happens, in practice, is that you don’t realize that. The more people you have, the more you stay pointed in the same direction.

My general advice for startups is to keep their burn as low as possible until they reach product-market fit at which point they should raise a Series A to accelerate growth. When raising money they should raise enough to get 6-9 months past the next meaningful value milestone. Graham lists value milestones as working prototype, launch, and then significant growth.

YouTube launches channel subscriptions

Nic Brisbourne — Fri, 10 May 2013 08:14:26 +0000

Google yesterday announced the launch of paid subscriptions for YouTube channels. So far this is only for a pilot group of around 30 hand-picked channels, but they say they are going to expand to a broader list of qualified partners that will operate on a self-service basis. I take that to mean that getting approval to charge for a YouTube channel will be somewhat like getting approval for an app to appear in the Google Play store – most everything that isn’t offensive will get approved.

If so, this is a big moment in the ongoing shift to over-the-top TV. In the five years or so that Google has been operating its YouTube channel programme which allows content owners to keep 55% of ad revenues from their content the amount of premium content viewed on YouTube has sky-rocketed. YouTube channel network companies that like Machinima, Maker Studios and ChannelFlip that provide distribution and monetisation services to content owners have seen amazing month on month growth in videos viewed and are now enjoy billions of video views per month. Most of these views are from teenagers and young adults who use YouTube as a substitute or even replacement for traditional TV. This growth has come when the only form of monetisation available is an ad share with Google. Now that subscriptions are available expect to see more high quality content come to the platform and as history has shown us over and over high quality content brings viewers.

However, whilst this is an exciting moment for those of us looking forward to ditching our cable and satellite subscriptions I don’t think YouTube channels in their current incarnation will be the end game. Firstly, Google’s 45% take of revenues (they offer the same deal for ads and subscriptions) is too high and in the medium to long term they will face meaningful competition and either lose out or shift to taking a substantially smaller cut. Secondly, as Kevin Kelleher wrote on Pando earlier this week the online TV world is splintering into lots of subscription based walled gardens and the user experience is suffering as a result. At a minimum I expect services to arise which allow users to search and discover across all the services they subscribe to, but I suspect also that ‘pay for what you watch’ revenue models might eventually displace subscriptions. Subscriptions are another form of bundle and with good search and discovery and simple payments I think users will pay more when they are only paying for what they want and not having to pay for things they don’t watch.