SFEX

The Tragic Triumvirate

noreply@blogger.com (Clayton Terry) — Thu, 01 Nov 2012 22:27:00 +0000

If you follow the NFL, you probably know which teams comprise the league’s Tragic Triumvirate.

Or maybe you don’t.

You see, there are three hopeless football teams that aren’t fully recognized as such until either the season gets going or the vindication of the postseason sets in. They’re three teams you should probably stop watching, unless you’re into antics like repeatedly slapping your forehead with your palm or flailing your arms in the air. The three teams? The Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys and San Diego Chargers.

The Eagles are easy to spot out as a member of this trio, but that wasn’t the case when they were a 3-1 football team with wins over the New York Giants and Baltimore Ravens. Due to that start, Philadelphia has since been favored against both the Detroit Lions and undefeated Atlanta Falcons. Obviously, that start has manifested as an aberration considering Phili’s current 3-4 record, but proof lies in the proverbial pudding that the Eagles have been an aberration all along.

The Eagles’ first two drives of the 2012 season resulted in turnovers (a LeSean McCoy fumble and Michael Vick interception), followed by four straight punts. This was versus the Cleveland Browns, who are a (although frisky) 2-6 football team right now. Somehow, Eagles eventually squeaked out a 17-16 week one victory in the second ugliest game of the season.

In week two against the Ravens, the Eagles started off drive number one with (you guessed it!) a turnover. And it wasn’t just a turnover; it was a red zone interception by Vick. At the time we weren’t completely used to these quarterbacking antics, and it went somewhat ignored because the Eagles ended up winning the game. However, if you watched that game closely, the Eagles had no business winning. The Ravens had multiple opportunities to seal the game in the second quarter, but multiple Joe Flacco blunders and play calling woes led to the self-prevention Baltimore is so used to exhibiting. The Ravens are doing all they can to turn the “Tragic Triumvirate” into the “Unfortunate Foursome.” Let’s give them a year or two.

Philadelphia’s first five drives against the Arizona Cardinals in week three: PUNT, PUNT, FUMBLE, PUNT, PUNT. Four of the first five drives allotted a total of six yards, and the lone 45-yard drive culminated in a (you guessed it!!) Michael Vick fumble. Chalk up a terrible loss. Here we go.

The Eagles beat the Giants in week four in predictable fashion. The Giants were in clear cruise control to start the season and really had no incentive to play hard. Philadelphia’s defense was pretty good at this point in the year too. Ugly game, ugly win. The subsequent week, the Pittsburgh Steelers prevailed over the Eagles in a slugfest. If you were keeping track, the Eagles were getting beat by its own offense and its own playmakers (as well as play caller) and not its defense or special teams.

So, the Eagles decided to play the blame game after relinquishing a 10-point lead with five minutes to play against the Lions in week six. Nope, they didn’t blame the quarterback or the offense or the coach. They blamed defensive coordinator Juan Castillo and fired him. Placing Castillo in the defensive coordinator position was a head-scratching love last season considering his former role as the offensive line coach, and just when he started coming around as a coordinator, he was fired. The former secondary coach is now the defensive coordinator – the head man of same secondary that's ruined Nnamdi Asomugha’s career. Consequently, the defense got ripped to shreds and had trouble keeping the Falcons in opposing territory last week, which resulted in Andy Reid’s first loss after a bye week in his head coaching career (formerly 13-0). Don’t call it a coincidence.

* * *

It’s no surprise that the Cowboys are a part of this group. Without delving too much into their atrocities, week six versus the Ravens explicitly personified the tragedies surrounding America’s team.

Just as in week one, the Cowboys were clicking in every aspect from the run game to defense against the Ravens. With under a minute left in the game, Dez Bryant played hero with an incredible touchdown catch to put the Cowboys within two.

What followed: A plain drop by Dez Bryant and a failed two-point conversion (the hero and the goat); a successful onside kick recovery; an inexplicable pass interference call that placed the Cowboys at Baltimore’s 46-yard line; an incomprehensible one-yard pass to Dez Bryant -- who was running a measly curl route -- with under 15 seconds remaining and one timeout; Tony Romo sauntering nonchalantly followed by confused looks towards the sidelines and his teammates; head coach Jason Garret nonchalantly gazing out at the field and then the ground like there’s three minutes remaining; a timeout with six seconds left; a missed 51-yard field goal and Cowboys loss.

The Cowboys in a nutshell, ladies and gentlemen. Same old song and dance. To top it off, they’re a 3-4 football team with an offense that can’t handle superior defenses one bit (the Seahawks, Bears and Giants each ate them alive), and an incompetent quarterback. We’ll get to that later. Just save yourself by not watching this team, and do like I did and trade away any Cowboys player you have in fantasy.

* * *

Last but not least, we have the San Diego Chargers. San Diego’s lone wins came against the Raiders (thanks to a long snapper injury), Titans and lowly Chiefs. They lost to an awful Saints team and completely melted down on a Monday night in Denver against the Broncos. For those of you who don’t know, that game consisted of a 24-0 Chargers halftime lead, a 35-0 second half run by the Broncos, and four interceptions and a fumble by Philip Rivers in the final two minutes and twenty two seconds. To top it all off, the Chargers lost to the Browns last week in the single ugliest game of the year, encapsulated by a wide open drop by Robert Meachem down the seam just six days after the NFL began investigating the team for using a banned sticky substance. There are bad seasons, there are terrible seasons, and then there are embarrassing seasons. The Chargers are finally delving into the latter and have joined the Eagles and Cowboys. It’s official.

* * *

Although each of these instances contribute to the bigger picture within the Tragic Triumvirate, the bigger picture itself cannot be ignored. Let’s start with the quarterbacks. Their stats so far in 2012:

Michael Vick: 9 TDs, 8 INTs, 9 fumbles in 7 games

Tony Romo: 9 TDs, 13 INTs, 4 fumbles in 7 games

Philip Rivers: 10 TDs, 9 INTs, 5 fumbles in 7 games

At one point in each of these quarterback’s careers, one was considered elite. Seems insane to think of now, right? They combine for six career playoff wins and zero Super Bowl appearances. Vick has lost his “valiant and respected leader” qualifications and utterly kills his own team with countless forced decisions. Rivers still yells at his teammates and remains the perceived asshole as his once-brilliant stats deteriorate. Romo’s biggest knock has always been late game management despite his precision, and now the caveat has vanished in the worst way possible – it’s no longer needed.

Their coaches (Andy Reid, Norv Turner and Jason Garrett) attain a combined 14-13 playoff record and one Super Bowl appearance. All three coaches have been at the helm for much too long (yes, Garrett, too), and are continually at the center of dissonance within sports talk after every inevitable catastrophe. Jason Garrett continues to make indefensible late game decisions alongside Romo (who in the world ices their own kicker???), Andy Reid continues to get bashed for his play calling yet fires his defensive coordinator, and Norv Turner hasn’t been in control of his team for two and a half years.

But it doesn’t end there. We can go even further back. Remember those Donovan McNabb-led teams that turned out to be complete teases? Remember the last time the Cowboys advanced in or even made the playoffs? Me neither. Remember when the Chargers were supposed to be in the Super Bowl every year from 2004 to 2006 and never were? Remember when Romo fumbled that snap? Sorry, I had to.

The truth is, these teams trap us year after year after year, yet should never be trusted. Not by fans, not by bettors, not by casuals looking for a nice Sunday viewing. Call it a curse, call it hopelessness, call it incompetence; call it what you will, but the Chargers play tonight, the Cowboys play on Sunday night, and the Eagles play on Monday night. Good luck avoiding tragedy -- not just this season, but for the foreseeable future.

LeBron's Heat, His Championship, and Our Expectations

noreply@blogger.com (Clayton Terry) — Mon, 25 Jun 2012 21:04:00 +0000

Click here to read the article.

LeBron's Time Is Now

noreply@blogger.com (Clayton Terry) — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 01:59:00 +0000

Never mind the prophetic assertion that as long as Kobe Bryant is in a Lakers uniform, the Lakers’ status as the Kings of LA is firmly planted. Prophetic assertions are, well, prophetic. Should it be a surprise that Bryant slew my Warriors twice in one week (top-7 protected pick!!!), sunk go-ahead threes to seal wins over New Orleans and New Jersey, then subsequently vanquished the Clippers last night with his 31 points? Nope, not if you glance over this site or the other from time to time. Not if you know the psychology of Kobe Bryant. You should by now.

It’s time to mind the psychology of another player – a psychology that’s more ambiguous than Bryant’s killer instinct.

You’d think the topic of LeBron James’ mindset would be worn out by now. In fact, you’d think the topic of LeBron in general would be worn out already. But it isn’t because the only thing to talk about this year is how fucking good he is. We don’t want to admit it, but we’d rather exploit LeBron than rejoice over him. But after his 34-point, 10-assist, 7-rebound, 4-steal, 11-13-free-throw, 3-7-three-point output Wednesday night in a Miami Heat win over the high-octane, Western Conference-dominating Oklahoma City Thunder, it’s apparent that this year is the year we either start rejoicing over LeBron, or commence condemnation eternally.

* * *

Outside of James, the Heat have struggled this season. Dwayne Wade has been off-and-on injured and hasn’t quite found himself; a lingering Chris Bosh injury is a legitimate speculation; Mike Miller and Joel Anthony have been injured all year; Udonis Haslem and Shane Battier have been close to awful; rookie Norris Cole started the season hot and cooled since, and Ronny Turiaf is a shell of himself. When you truly dissect this team, it isn’t an unstoppable juggernaut by any means.

LeBron James is. He’s having the best season of his career in this weird, compacted, back-to-back-riddled NBA season. It hasn’t fazed him once. And 24 hours after his season-high 41 points against the Philadelphia 76ers, he gave us Wednesday night’s aforementioned performance.

And when the scene of that game shifted after Russell Westbrook’s flagrant foul on James’ would-be breakaway dunk, LeBron embraced the atmosphere. Westbrook was charged, running wild and bobbing his head with the “Westbrook sucks!” chants, Kevin Durant was still a force although his turnovers were up, and players were flying around as they joined the decorative crowd in a genuine playoff ambiance. When LeBron exhibited the trademark, swagger-filled hop in his step and quick shot release, it was on. When he, as Hubie Brown said, “shot out of a cannon” with his steal and dunk with just over two minutes remaining in the first half, there was something noticeably different about him. As a vehement NBA fan and former LeBron enthusiast, I’ve never seen that speed and explosiveness out of him. He’s exuded overconfidence in meaningless regular season games before, but nothing like that. To cap it off, he hit a deep jumper at the buzzer to end the half. All he could do after that was stare down the opponent with fierce eyes.

Perceive the game how you want (meaningless regular season game doubling as a Finals preview, meaningless game between two powerhouses, meaningful game between two powerhouses, meaningless altogether), this game was actually important to LeBron James. After the game, he answered a question with, “It’s playoff basketball.” When he was reminded it’s the regular season, he responded: “It’s playoff basketball.”

We can look at the game from every angle, including the ones previously touched on, James’ magnificent defense late in the game, and the fact that the majority of the offense ran through him. We can look at stats. We can look at how LeBron willed his team to its first noteworthy victory on national television since who-knows-when.

But none of those things come close to the importance of timing. The playoffs start in three weeks. The Heat needed a trademark win to get themselves in the postseason groove. LeBron was cognizant of that and took charge. He truly showed that the Miami Heat are his team and he’s been showing it all season. And, as we all know, Miami’s success in the playoffs hinges on LeBron. This game was either the launching pad for a championship, or the aberration that made us actually think LeBron James had it in him.

The time is here and now for LeBron. He already vanquished the Celtics. The Bulls don’t deserve to be in the same league as the Heat in a seven-game series format. The Lakers and Spurs can’t keep up. The Clippers are nowhere near ready. Dallas is still celebrating the title. The Thunder lack experience. The window is wide open, and the title is there for the taking.

We will inevitably denounce every mind-blowing thing he does on the basketball court forever if he, yet again, disappoints. If he can’t succeed this year, with the stars neatly aligned, he never will. But will we rejoice if he succeeds? Will we marvel over something that was imminent all along, or, more than that, supposed to have happened already? It’s tough to say, but in the end, We Are All Witnesses.

Kobe Bryant reminds us as long as he's around, LA basketball belongs to the Lakers

noreply@blogger.com (Clayton Terry) — Sat, 24 Mar 2012 01:05:00 +0000

Rewind your NBA Fan Clock back three months. A lockout just ended and Commissioner David Stern just went into full-fledged panic mode after league owners ensued their “We are the 99 percent!” tirade. Chris Paul is no longer being sent to the Los Angeles Lakers. The NBA-owned New Orleans Hornets need to find a viable trade that is in the team’s “best interests” and need to move fast. The Hornets eventually settle on a trade with the Los Angeles Clippers. Lob City is born.

Naturally, ESPN does what it does best by swirling sports media and feeding thrill into our mouths. Remember, Sportscenter studios haven’t resided in LA for very long. The Worldwide Leader has been glamorizing Blake Griffin and the West Coast (at least Southern California) with inordinate regularity. Prominent analysts are prematurely placing the Clips on an outlandish pedestal. The NBA scope has shifted from the glitz of Kobe Bryant and the Lakers to the Lob City spotlight. LA’s “little brother” is poised to make a name for himself and contend with the rest of the NBA’s pristine powerhouses.

Beyond that, the Lakers are deteriorating. They imploded early in the previous postseason to the eventual NBA champion Dallas Mavericks. Bryant is aging and just had a mysterious knee surgery overseas in the offseason. A sullen Lamar Odom just got traded to the Mavericks. A sensitive Pau Gasol is unsure of his future. Ron Artest inexplicably changed his name. Phil Jackson has long ridden into the sunset, smoking peyote. A changing-of-the-guard-type scene is imminent.

* * *

Truthfully, that prospect was in the midst of coming to fruition early in the season. The Clippers beat the Lakers in their first matchup, and continued to beat other contending West teams like Oklahoma City, Dallas Memphis and Denver. All the while, the Lakers were looking like the deteriorating, 2004-bound Lakers awaiting their fall from grace.

Fast-forward to now, and the Clippers are falling apart. They’ve lost 8 of 12; Vinny Del Negro is on thin ice (shocking!); Blake Griffin still hasn’t presented an imposing post presence, shown anything dominant offensively outside of thunderous dunks, or developed an outside jumper to complement Paul’s perennial pick-and-roll game; Paul hasn’t put the team on his back when they’ve needed him; DeAndre Jordan is carrying his $43 million contract along with his 7 points a game and 8 rebounds a game; Caron Butler isn’t good (shocking!); Clipper Darrell got kicked out of town (horrible karma move); Nick Young doesn’t fit into any offense that involves passing (shocking!); and the Clips are getting manhandled by nobodies like Jason Smith. If the measly Hornets aren’t scared of the Clippers, no team is scared of the Clippers. There’s nothing daunting about them once the dunks and crossovers are tapped out.

Concurrently, the Lakers are surging, winning 6 of 8. Pau Gasol can let go of his sensitivity now that his future is certain. Andrew Bynum is morphing into a fabulous force and has dodged the injury bullet. Metta World Peace is kicking his game into gear and Kobe Bryant is the unquestioned catalyst. Despite depth issues, the Lakers are sitting in the third spot in the West. They also just landed Ramon Sessions and (shrewdly) didn’t even bother to take back Derek Fisher, AKA “The Most Worthless Player in the NBA.”

The Clippers attained all the glitz and glam the Lakers lost and allowed the Lakers to sustain their status as the Kings of LA. And in classic Mamba fashion, Kobe Bean is vaulting the Lakers at the coincidental time of crisis in Clipperland.

Aside from being the “Masked Mamba” and ruthlessly backing his teammates, Bryant has been relatively quiet this season. It’s been something commendable to follow. From his slew of 40-point games at the season’s outset, to his curt, yet timely sentiments that if the Lakers are going to trade Gasol, they should just “fucking do it,” his overall veteran savvy, his league-leading 28.7 points per game, his ongoing awareness of career, his newfound awareness of self and team, and his impeccable durability, Bryant is performing and carrying himself at an admirable, professional level in 2012. When was the last time Kobe was labeled as a “jerk”? When was the last time he was questioned for his statements or on-court actions?

As for his awareness of self, he knows where he stands within the organization. If he wants something, he’s going to get it, and that’s how it should be. It’s not done in a cocky way anymore. Bryant turned guys like Pau Gasol and Sasha Vujacicinto relentless pieces on championship teams. He molded teams with his ruthless persona and took them to titles. He’s exuded unlimited faith in Andrew Bynum as an elite center in the same ways he did for Pau Gasol, and it’s paying off. He’s slowly molding a flawed team that deserves more stock purchasing than the nonthreatening Clips. With Bryant, the Lakers will always be daunting. Call it cocky if you want to be in the minority or remain trapped in 2005. Kobe Bryant isthe reason the Lakers are miraculously number three in the West as the most important stage in this wacky, shortened regular season hits stride.

Ironically, Kobe came out with this on Friday. His statements always come at ironic times. It runs parallel with his performance. Here’s the central quote:

“We are a championship-caliber team. I’ve never understood the talk about us not being a contender. I’ve never understood it from the start of the season until now. You have myself, you have Andrew [Bynum], and you have Pau. Who has three players like that on one roster? And then you have Metta [World Peace] and you have [Matt] Barnes…So I hear all this talk and all these conversations and here we are two games out of the second seed in the Western Conference despite our struggles on the road and with the new coaching staff and the new system and new personnel. I always believed we were contenders but we just had to be quiet about it.”

We just had to be quiet about it. 25 year-old Kobe wouldn’t have remained quiet about anything — a prime example of self-awareness.

The Clippers have attempted to seize control of LA basketball every time the Lakers slipped over the years. They’ve never done it. As long as Kobe Bryant is in Los Angeles, they never will.

Follow Clayton at hazyperspectives.tumblr.com to read this piece and many others.

Aimless Preview of an Aimless Tournament featuring some Aimless Perspectives

noreply@blogger.com (Clayton Terry) — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 17:04:00 +0000

As much as we love the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, we all know how much of a crapshoot it is. Which is why the best thing to do when filling out your bracket is to cater to your personal preferences. Whether it’s a team you vehemently root for, a team you inexplicably root for, an upset you like, a conference that compels you or a player that’s endearing to you, it’s always fun to go for something in a tournament where anything can happen at any given moment. Here are the perspectives I’m looking through in preview of this year’s tourney, and a few things I’ll be rooting for:

Fabulous 4-seeds

In my bracket, I picked three 4-seeds to reach the Elite 8 and two to reach the Final 4. Which ones? Michigan, Wisconsin and Indiana, with Indiana and Wisconsin in the Final 4. Don’t ask me why. Well, actually, it has a lot to do with…

Riding the coattails of the Big Ten

The Big Ten was the best conference in basketball this year, bar none. The difference between the Big Ten this year and in past seasons? The teams actually play offense. Indiana averaged 77 points per game this year, Ohio State 75, Michigan State 72. Wisconsin has enough offense to hang with the teams in its region (especially with Fab Melo now out for Syracuse). Michigan can be a sneaky, lethal team if their good guard play gets hot because, you know, college basketball is all about guard play. Putting stock in an entire conference is a very good strategy in bracket pick ‘ems. The Big Ten is this year’s reliant investment.

First round double-digit victories

My first round upsets by double digit teams (not including the 10/7 match-ups): VCU over Wichita State, Colorado over UNLV, Long Beach State over New Mexico, Texas over Cincinnati, CAL/USF (doesn’t matter which) over Temple, NC State over SDSU, and Belmont over Georgetown. Don’t ask me why. I also have Belmont in the Sweet 16. Don’t ask me why, but it will be fun to root for in a pool that rewards upsets and gives points based on seed differential. It will also be fun to root for Cal (my dream school/where I want to attend graduate school), Long Beach (Cali), and VCU even though everybody is picking VCU.

Players to pay attention to

Austin Rivers, Tyler Zeller, Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, Draymond Green, Michael Dixon, Christian Watford, Thomas Robinson, Tyshawn Taylor. Polarizing set of characters, but each has something to prove coming into the tournament, whether he’s cemented his place in legitimacy or not. NBA draft statuses hinge on a few of these players’ performances (Sullinger in particular), and a handful are capable of taking over this tourney Steph Cury-style (Robinson, Rivers, Green, Dixon). Two of my favorite players — Robinson and Rivers — fall into that category, but the most intriguing is Christian Watford. Don’t ask me why. I just have a weird affinity for 6-9 small forwards with size, range and clutch factor (see: Stephen Jackson, others).

The Final 4

Sadly, Michigan State and Missouri were placed in the same region, so the best game of the tournament will have to be played in the Elite 8. Nevertheless, I have Indiana vs. Michigan State and Wisconsin vs. Kansas in my Final 4. Michigan State vs. Kansas in the championship (and what a championship that would be), with the edge going to Kansas in the national championship. Don’t ask me why. It must be because Thomas Robinson is the best player in the country. (Sorry, Anthony Davis)

You can see this and other pieces on multiple topics at my blog, Hazy Perspectives.

How Do You Really Feel?

noreply@blogger.com (Clayton Terry) — Wed, 07 Mar 2012 17:23:00 +0000

Imagine working for a company for 13 straight years. While working for that company, you achieve so much success and pile up accolades so high that your position in the company becomes more prominent than your boss’s. Business begins to flourish, revenue comes flowing in, and suddenly, you become more important than any employee or CEO that came before you. The company expands, it wins the most illustrious award it could possibly achieve, and a massive, state-of-the-art building is built to satisfy business headquarters. The company achieves huge success, yet keeps you at your position in the field because you’re invaluable to it. Your future position as CEO is inevitable. You have nothing to worry about, because you propelled this company to unparalleled heights from a subordinated position. You took that subordinated position and turned it into a leadership one without ever being promoted. Nobody has ever done what you’ve done.

Just before your fourteenth year with the company, your boss decides to give you another pay raise. This time, it’s a five-year, $90 million contract. You’re the highest paid person in your field – not just within the company, but in the world. The contract sets you up perfectly, because by the time it expires, your duties as an invaluable employee will be superfluous and you’ll slide into your management/ownership duties with ease.

However, fate has it that you have to take a year off. You suffer a terrible sickness that requires painstaking treatment, and it doesn’t go as smoothly as hoped. The sickness becomes so serious that doctors have to conduct treatment on your brain. The condition seems severe yet treatment procedures go well. Rehabilitation is an expectedly long process, but you begin to have setbacks. Treatments are conducted again. Finally, after three procedures in 19 months, all you have left is your final rehab stint. In time, you know you’ll be ready to get back to doing what you’ve successfully been doing for over 13 years.

But things have changed in the past year. Your company has been mired in demise since your departure. Employees are distraught and searching for a viable form of leadership. Internal chemistry is lost and management hasn’t found a way to supplement your absence. It’s so bad that it’s embarrassing. There’s absolutely nothing that can get the business crawling back to its feet again besides your return and your return only. It becomes a media phenomenon and the biggest stories feature your absence. Everybody knows that if your sickness didn’t happen, the company would remain fruitful. Without you, the company either goes bankrupt, or sells some of its stake below market value to commence a rebuilding process.

You’re eager to get back to work. You’re not sure how long it will take to get back to prime form – or if you’ll ever be at prime form, for that matter – but you know you have what it takes to pull the company out of the doldrums and retake your lead. You already know what it takes to reach prominence and you still have the pieces around you to do it. You’re so good at what you do that it may only be a matter of weeks before the public realizes that the company is safe and sound again.

But management is skeptical. They can’t quite confidently put their stock back into you when you’ve experienced three brain procedures. The deadline to terminate your contract is in nine weeks and termination is a high consideration. The rebuilding process is a legitimate option. In just a few months’ time, the company will have the opportunity to hire a young mind with the potential of eventually bringing the company back to where you assembled it. But they decide to wait on it and keep tabs on your rehabilitation process as the deadline draws nearer.

In the meantime, you go back to work to scope out the dismantled premises. The atmosphere at headquarters is awful. Your vice chairman and general manager have both been fired. Whether intentionally or not, you make it public that you’re unhappy with the dreary ambiance that has plagued the company. You have every right to express those sentiments. The house that you built is in shambles.

However, your boss is immensely unhappy. He feels you disrespected the lore of the company and everything it stands for with your comments. He sees your comments as egocentric and harps on you publicly to “keep it in the family.” You graciously reach out to him in a professional matter to calm the situation and suppress the media whirlwind.

Two weeks later, a group of medical professionals tell you that you’re cleared to go back to work. It’s unknown if the procedures have actually affected your cognitive skills in the workplace – only your boss and co-workers could tell you that – but you are medically cleared to work. Management has one month to decide whether to terminate your contract or begin their rebuilding process. Only you know how you feel about this at this point. You decide not to make anything public and just prepare for work in regular fashion. You keep it professional.

Then, after a month of deliberation, your boss decides to pull the trigger. He terminates your contract.

When the news hits the airwaves, the overall reaction is unsettling. The media immediately jumps on what your next destination might be. Everyone knows that you can benefit another corporation and possibly take it to new heights, and all of those possible outcomes excite them. For some reason, the prospect of seeing you in a different suit is more appealing than the accomplishment of resurrecting your prior company. The news tickers are running headlines with you and your company “PARTING WAYS,” and you “LEAVING THE COMPANY.” You didn’t leave or come to a compromise to part ways; you were burned.

You now have no control over a machine that you created. The remainder of your $90 million contract has been voided. Sure, you’re still wealthy and will likely live prosperous for the rest of your life, but everything you developed is now gone. Your inevitable high management position is no longer because your own boss tried to paint you as inconsistent with the company’s ethical standards and subsequently kicked you out. You look to an entrepreneur in Los Angeles with similar qualities to yours and remember the respect he got with his retroactively based contract. He was also in his mid-thirties at the time, with a slew of injuries and old age to consider. That doesn’t matter to his company; he isn’t getting paid for the years in his contract. His contract accounts for everything he’s done in the past for his company. He’s in line for a future position in management. You’re cognizant of how his company handled that particular employee, and realize you’ve been duped. You’re emotional, but keep things professional as you walk out the door.

But how do you really feel, knowing you’ve been burned by the company that blossomed from the seed of your performance? How do you really feel, knowing that your previous employer has undoubted faith in a precarious newcomer to reenact your unrivaled precedent? How do you really feel, knowing that you’ll never fully be appreciated by those that leeched off your performance as you reached immeasurable heights?

How do you really feel, Peyton Manning?

You can check out this very column and other pieces on multiple topics at my blog, Hazy Perspectives.

Make No Mistake

noreply@blogger.com (Clayton Terry) — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 05:59:00 +0000

Turnovers and big mistakes highlighted Sunday’s AFC and NFC championship games, rather than outstanding individual play or brilliant team performance. It was difficult not to feel empty inside or even a little depressed after all that transpired, whether you’re a fan of one of the teams that participated or not. Not one team played spectacularly, and not one specific player played exceptionally well outside of the New York Giants' Victor Cruz. Yes, the games were close and exhilarating late, but the outcomes were exasperating.

It’s easy to say that the NFL product has worsened due to the early playoff exoduses of the Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers. It’s also easy to say that if football was played within a series format, those teams would’ve been at the forefront of Sunday’s games and we wouldn’t have had to witness Billy Cundiff’s horrific hook of a field goal for the Baltimore Ravens versus the New England Patriots and Kyle Williams’ disastrous overtime fumble for the San Francisco 49ers versus the Giants. It’s easy to say the best team in the NFL probably won’t be the one winning the Super Bowl.

But that’s not football. Coming away from Sunday’s games discontent is understandable, but making the game of football what you want it to be isn’t. The best part about the game is that preparation and execution preside over all else. Therefore, mistakes are a gigantic part of the game. They have the potential to render immense detriment to a team. Those who love basketball and love the series system don’t like that. Those who realize that the game of football is about striving for perfection, or at least the closest thing to it, do.

It wasn’t just the mistakes themselves that changed these games, but the abundance in which they were committed. For both the Ravens and 49ers, play calling turned out to be unstable enough to be mistake-riddled.

It started out early for San Francisco when the Niners dialed up a reverse play early in the first quarter amidst sloppy field conditions. Yes, this is minor compared to everything else that eventually transpired, but calling trick plays in the middle of a muddy mess of a football game probably isn’t something that’s going to pan out most of the time. Kyle Williams fumbled the ball on this play, but I don’t fault him at all for it. The call itself was far more indefensible.

The more important aspect of San Francisco’s play calling was its total blunder of a game plan. The 49ers finished the game 1/13 on third down, and Alex Smith only totaled 12 completions. He only completed one pass to an actual wide receiver. The team virtually gave up on Frank Gore despite proficiency in the running game when it was utilized. Drives seemed to only last about a minute and three-and-outs were aplenty. Give much credit to the New York Giants defense, but Frank Gore has no business rushing the ball under 25 times in a game comprised of horrible conditions where time of possession is key. Top that off with a struggling quarterback that might’ve reverted back to his true colors and you have yourself a complete lack of preparation as well as execution.

Baltimore’s play calling gaffe came on the final possession. Third-and-one on New England’s 14 yard-line, the Ravens dialed up a pass play that led to an incompletion, so they had to settle for the game-tying field goal attempt. The only problem: they had a timeout remaining. In the first quarter of this same game, Ray Rice converted a third-and-one on a run up the middle behind a brilliant second effort. There was no reason not to run a mirror image of that play again. If you don’t get it, you use the timeout and you kick the field goal regardless. If you get it, you give yourself at least two downs to take a shot at the end zone with roughly 15 seconds to work with. Instead, they called a pass and squandered the opportunity for a couple extra plays, settled for a field goal, and Billy Cundiff missed it. Now they’ll be sitting at home on Super Bowl Sunday like the rest of us.

Not capitalizing is considered a mistake as well. Joe Flacco can continue to bark back at the media all he wants, but until he makes deadly throws following his opponent’s mistakes, he won’t be seen as elite. That’s the difference between guys like him and Alex Smith and guys like Tom Brady and Eli Manning. It manifested on Sunday.

Brady seized the game on a fourth-and-goal end zone dive to put his team up 23-20 in the fourth quarter. It was filled with guile and no regard. The same went for Eli Manning and his plethora of pressure throws and third down conversions. He was on the ground more than Alex Smith was all game and still managed the resiliency and wherewithal to achieve key first downs in a game where the 49ers had stuffed everything else in the Giants offense. He didn't figure out a way to put the game away in regulation or the overtime period, but he was unequivocally the toughest player in the league last Sunday. The sentiments of his teammates ring true – he’s truly as tough as they come.

Some little things in these games made the world of difference, too. Imagine if Ted Ginn, Jr. had been healthy enough to return punts for the 49ers. Imagine if Julian Edelman didn’t have to play defensive back for the Patriots and cover Anquan Boldin in pressure situations down the stretch (it would’ve been the epicenter of defensive meltdown topics all week if Cundiff hadn’t missed that kick). Imagine if Brady didn’t painfully overthrow Rob Gronkowski for an easy touchdown in the first quarter, or loft floaters instead of darts, or get cocky after Flacco’s first interception and throw into double coverage in the end zone. Imagine if Lee Evans had just hauled in the touchdown pass that would’ve changed the perception of Joe Flacco. Imagine if the 49ers defensive backs hadn’t continually leveled each other on every interception opportunity. Imagine if Kyle Williams had just stayed away from his first muffed fumble instead of letting it take an awkward bounce towards his knee. Imagine if turnovers weren’t such an enormous factor.

And that’s the thing, turnovers and mistakes are monstrous factors. The playoffs are showing us these things in undeniable fashion. It showed when Andy Dalton threw three interceptions in the wild card round, when T.J. Yates threw four interceptions in the divisional round, when Green Bay committed four turnovers and New Orleans five upon their exits, and ended with mistakes by Baltimore and San Francisco capped off with a shanked field goal and a gut-wrenching fumble.

The Patriots and Giants haven’t made those types of mistakes, and they’ll be playing in a greatly anticipated Super Bowl XLII rematch because of it. Compound that with the greatness that they have shown, and the true football fan wouldn’t have it any other way. Make no mistake about it – the Giants and Patriots are truly the two best teams in the NFL.

Conference Championship Preview: Riding A Wave To Super Bowl XLVI

noreply@blogger.com (Clayton Terry) — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 01:55:00 +0000

The more you immerse yourself in the NFL, the more you realize that it’s the quintessential week-to-week league. It’s impossible to successfully determine the outcome of an NFL game based on each team’s body of work alone. Remember when the Buffalo Bills started the season 4-1, while playing tough and even beating eventual playoff teams like New England? But then they lost to a New York Giants team in week six that desperately needed a bounce-back win after a terrible loss in Seattle. It should’ve been overwhelmingly expected. The Bills had been riding a wave of perpetually forced turnovers; the Giants had just lost to a downtrodden Seattle team by giving up 20 points in the fourth quarter due to inexplicable turnovers, and they had something to prove. You never want the Giants when they have something to prove. That’s one of many examples on how to approach the NFL when making predictions. If you’re into that sort of thing.

Well, the playoffs are no different. Talking heads are now starting to fall into their own naivety by making assumptions like, “Maybe the NFL is becoming like baseball and all the other sports, all you have to do is make the playoffs! As long as you get in, it’s all about getting hot and playing good football at the right time!”

But isn’t that what the whole season is about if you sincerely look at it through a microscope the way the media does come January? After that loss to the Giants, the Bills beat the hapless Redskins then followed that game by losing seven straight. Their juice ran out as soon as Ryan Fitzpatrick received his contract extension and they were one of the easiest teams to bet against all year. And that’s just one example. The Dolphins are probably the best one; they started off the season ahead in the “Suck for Luck” sweepstakes and ended it by putting money in bettors’ pockets.

Now, I’m going to try not to jinx it, but I’m doing pretty well in my playoff picks against the spread right now. It’s very hard not to look ahead but I’m forcefully restraining myself because, after all, this is a week-to-week league. It’s the same week-to-week league that saw the prominent Packers fall violently at home to the Giants and saw the Saints get smacked around by the vicious-hitting 49ers. Maybe some aspects were a little surprising (nobody expected the Packers to get beat down at home the way they did, and nobody expected Alex Smith to go blow-for-blow with Drew Brees), but enough was on the table to suggest that the Saints would struggle on the road outdoors (they did, and turnovers indicated so), and that the Giants were playing at a high level suited for competitive play against an elite team. That was enough to make the overall outcome of the divisional round unsurprising to those with cognizance of the week-to-week league known as the NFL.

If you ride a wave too long, it’s bound to swallow you up at some point. It was easy to look at the 15-1 Packers’ body of work and say they were going to ride an easy wave to the Super Bowl. They couldn’t sustain that body of work because no team ever does. Football is a sport that thrives off motivation, determination and execution as much, if not more than, talent and strategy. This creates ebbs and flows in a season, no matter what it ultimately amounts to. The challenge is being prepared for those slip-ups or looming ascensions and taking full advantage. Preparation is riding the right wave.

Sunday, Jan 22 – 3:00 PM ET
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

By the time conference championships roll around, each of the four teams is either playing at its apex or is at the cusp of reaching it. This holds true for every team remaining right now, except for the Baltimore Ravens. Either that, or the Ravens are at their apex and just aren’t as good as the other three teams.

They had a chance to stick a fork in the Texans up 17-6 in the second quarter last week and couldn’t do it. They let Houston stick around and have a chance to win or at least tie the game in the fourth quarter, and the Texans ultimately covered the 7.5-point spread. The Baltimore offense has been anemic all season as well as predictable, which has translated to a very predictable team. Anemic offenses tend to be the catalyst for zig-zag teams as well, which made bets against them versus Seattle and San Diego virtual locks this season. The 2011-12 Ravens are a situational zig-zag team. Losses followed big wins and big wins followed losses. They beat Pittsburgh twice off sheer motivation, and those ended up being their biggest wins of the season excluding their beat down of San Francisco on Thanksgiving night. The rest of the season was highly unimpressive. Joe Flacco threw for over 300 passing yards only four times this year, and hasn’t done so since week nine in Pittsburgh. Is that the kind of offense that can keep up with a Patriots team that’s going to put up an inordinate amount of points no matter what defense they’re facing? Nope; and once again, I can’t back down now. This team (along with the Falcons) is the team I’ve been waiting to bet against in the playoffs all season, and I get to do it twice! Thank you, gambling gods.

As for the Patriots, there’s nothing to worry about with an amped-up Tom Brady under center. Brady is very similar to Kobe Bryant in that he feeds off his own ego. He finds weird ways to motivate himself. He remembers the 2010 beating they took to the Ravens at home very vividly. He’s going to shred the old and hobbling Baltimore defense (Ray Lewis is old and Ed Reed was hobbling all over the field last week). Moreover, could you think of any possible scenario where the Ravens stop the greatest tight end tandem in the history of the NFL? If Terrell Suggs is used in coverage, who’s going to get to Brady? If Suggs is used to rush the passer, who’s going to cover both Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez at the same time? Ostensibly, Ray Lewis will have to cover one of them; he would have a fit attempting to do so. That’s not good for a team that needs to hold the Patriots to at least 24 points to win.
All in all, the only thing you need to know about this game is that Tom Brady was anxiously awaiting kickoff by Wednesday. He said it’s all he’s thinking about until Sunday. That’s four days prior to the game. He’s a psychopath. Ride the wave of Psychopath Tom Brady.

The pick: New England 38, Baltimore 28 (Patriots -7)

Sunday, Jan 22 – 6:30 PM ET
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are flawlessly coached, destroy people on defense and stick to the Championship Philosophy. They run the ball and stuff the run. If anything, the 49ers are the team you’d pick to resurrect the roots of the Championship Philosophy and end this era of purely dominant quarterbacking. But the Giants are really good right now. Too good.

The Giants have been sort of an enigma over the years, playing at high levels and reverting back to exasperating performances in aimless fashion. They were no different this season. The popular hypothesis behind this is that the team has a habit of quitting on its coach. Some like to blame Eli Manning. But the big thing that needs to be noted here is that the core of this team obtains a championship mentality. They know what it takes to win. When the Pittsburgh Steelers look flat and everybody overlooks it, it’s because we all know that they’ll play up to par when it matters. For some reason, that same perception isn’t correlated with the Giants. It should be.

Not only is this team eerily similar to the one that won Super Bowl XLII, it’s better. It’s better because there’s more talent with players such as Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Jason Pierre-Paul and Antrel Rolle in the fold. It’s similar in that they obtain unwavering confidence as individuals and as a team. Call it trash talk if you wish, but even so, the trash talk is coming from all the right places and it's quite riveting.

Rolle did an exceptional job in coverage against the Packers last week and gets Vernon Davis this week after some back-and-forth banter between the two. Jason Pierre-Paul predicted a win last week, and who knows, he might do it again. But as the week draws closer to Sunday, the Giants’ trash talking has evolved into humble confidence. When Rolle was asked in Wednesday’s press conference what makes Vernon Davis so dangerous, he just chuckled and replied with: “You know, he’s an NFL tight end. He’s good at what he does” when he was obviously thinking, “I’m going to destroy him. There’s no way in hell he gets 180 receiving yards this week.” The rest of the team exuded the same quiet confidence in Wednesday’s press conference, even the guys who weren’t a part of Super Bowl XLII, most notably Rolle, Cruz and Nicks. A team like the Giants can be gauged heavily on its disposition throughout the week.

The Giants are capable of knocking some heads off the same way the Niners are. They’re capable of perfecting the Championship Philosophy the same way the Niners are. They don't care about the weather and field conditions that everybody thinks will be such a huge factor. They're playing on the road for their third straight playoff game, a familiar position for the leftover players from Super Bowl XLII. They're playing against a team they already faced and barely lost to this season (it's supremely tough to beat a team twice), which means they have something to prove. You don't want the Giants when they have something to prove. They fully believe in Eli Manning and could care less about the stomach bug he caught on Wednesday, answering questions with, “Nothing’s gonna stop him at this point. I’m pretty sure a lot of us feel the same way. He’s our leader,” and “I don’t think it’s gonna affect him at all. You know Eli, he’s as tough as they come.”

So ignore this team’s body of work. Instead, ride its wave of confidence.
The pick: New York 27, San Francisco 20 (Giants +2.5)

SFE NFL Playoff Preview: Deciphering the Divisional Round

noreply@blogger.com (Clayton Terry) — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 23:07:00 +0000

In sports, having a short-term memory is a good thing. This is the exact reason why I gloated about my current 4-0 playoff record against the spread for about 6 hours. I proceeded to stare at the divisional-round betting lines for about an hour each day this week, and I don’t think I’ll have clear, confident picks until I’m done writing this piece. The lines are exceedingly tough and every team provides a reason to be doubted. Betting is enjoyable when you have a clear-headed, strong-standing approach. This week's betting is nothing of the sort. Multiple angles and opinions are strewn across the internet, and everyday sports banter contains nothing close to a resounding, universal opinion. When there’s too much not to like, you have to go with your gut.

Saturday, Jan 14 – 4:30 PM ET
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers

What’s not to like about the Saints: Two things: Defense, and playing on the road/outdoors. The New Orleans defense allowed five yards per attempt this season, which was 29th in the league. Not a good stat considering the San Francisco grind-it-out running attack and Frank Gore’s 4.3 yards per carry.

Playing on the road in Candlestick is a significant variable as well. When analyzing this game, it’s tough not to think back to New Orleans’ week 14 game in Tennessee in less-than-favorable conditions. Drew Brees could never really get into a rhythm until he unleashed a 35-yard touchdown strike to Marques Colston in the fourth quarter, and this was against a Titans defense that displays half the talent and staunchness of the 49ers. The Saints are a different team outside than they are at home in their dome, which was proven this season with imperfect performances in Carolina, Tampa Bay and Tennessee. Granted, those games were early in the season, but the Saints have been riding a favorable schedule, playing in domes ever since. Their nine-game winning streak versus the spread will be in jeopardy this weekend.

What’s not to like about the 49ers: Alex Smith and the offense. Smith has only thrown five interceptions on the season, which is a staggering number for a player of such prior ineptitude. However, those numbers come within an offense that protects him from propelling that interception total. The Niners convey The Championship Philosophy finer than any remaining playoff team by grinding games out and sticking to their run-the-ball/stop-the-run identity, but what’s going to happen if Brees is clicking early and they have to play catch-up? Alex Smith isn’t the most trustworthy quarterback in commanding an offense by any stretch, especially when going through the air is virtually the only option. If the Niners are forced to go away from their identity early, they’ll be in huge trouble.

The verdict: It’s tough to see the 49ers straying away from their identity at home against a frail rush defense that finished the season -3 in turnover differential. That alone will take possessions away from Brees and company because San Francisco does an exceptional job of eating up clock in its offense. Brees usually takes a while to get going (which was exhibited in the first half against Detroit last week), so minimal possessions will be critical. The Niners are a solid all-around team in all three phases and have an outstanding coach at the helm. They’ll be ready. The defense definitely won’t take away all of Drew Brees’ options, but they’ll do a good job of not giving him everything he wants. This could ultimately be the best game of the weekend. Harbaugh and home-field hinge this one.

The pick: San Francisco 24, New Orleans 22 (49ers +4)

Saturday, Jan 14 – 8:00 PM ET
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

What’s not to like about the Patriots: The defense and secondary. It’s awful. No need to elaborate. Let’s move on.

What’s not to like about the Broncos: Tim Tebow. Let me explain before I get condemned for blasphemy. Don’t get me wrong, I love Tim Tebow. He’s probably the new-age messiah. But Bill Belichick isn’t dumb. He’s not going to stack eight players in the box. Tebow is going to be forced to throw the ball more than 21 times this week, which isn’t an auspicious position for the Denver offense to be in. The Broncos are at their best when the running game thrives, and so is Tim Tebow. That run-game will be unsustainable when Denver inevitably finds itself down by three touchdowns to Tom Brady and the Patriots in the second half.
The verdict: It’s tough to bet against Tebow with such a wide spread to consider (13.5), but the Broncos aren’t tailored to keep up with an offense like the Patriots. The defense would have to play immaculately, and Bill Belichick would have to commit a total coaching blunder. It’s tough to see both happening; Belichick is a post-bye week genius. And do you know what the best part about betting the Patriots in this game is? You won’t feel bad when you lose. Tebow Saves.

The pick: New England 45, Denver 23 (Patriots -13.5)

Sunday, Jan 15 – 1:00 PM ET
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

What’s not to like about the Texans: A rookie third-string quarterback versus the best defense in the NFL. Although he is a competent passer for a third-string rookie, T.J. Yates hasn’t exactly blown the roof off any buildings this year. He has played against the Cincinnati defense twice, but that’s the only solid defense he’s faced this season. The Ravens are good enough to stop Houston’s rushing staple, so Yates will likely have to take on a responsibility similar to the one he undertook in his first meeting against Cincinnati when he threw the ball 44 times. He fared well in that game, but that isn’t the optimal scenario for the Texans.

What’s not to like about the Ravens: Joe Flacco and the offense. The Ravens offense is as enigmatic as it gets. Sometimes it's horribly anemic until Ray Rice breaks a long run, other times it is very fluid with Flacco making nice throws. But most of the time, it’s the former. In other words, the Ravens have no offensive identity, which isn’t a good sign for a team with Super Bowl expectations.

The verdict: I can't back down now. I’ve been waiting for the moment to bet against the Ravens in the playoffs has much as I waited to bet against the Falcons last week. The stars are aligned for them to make a Super Bowl run with the Steelers out, and the humdrum Joe Flacco, along with his meager playoff resume (four touchdowns and seven interceptions in seven career games), is here to destruct Baltimore's orbit. The Texans defense is as relentless as it gets -- the Ravens will have a tough time getting everything they can out of Ray Rice. It’s tough to think T.J. Yates will be able to sift through the constant wave of Baltimore defenders, but he's not scared. He doesn’t know any better, and neither do the Texans. They have nothing to lose and a lot to prove after years of disappointing 8-8 seasons and failed sleeper selections. All the pressure is on Joe Flacco to kick down the door the Ravens have been knocking on all these years. The prospect of that happening is easy to bet against.

The pick: Houston 27, Baltimore 23 (Texans +7.5)

Sunday, Jan 15 – 4:30 PM ET
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers

What’s not to like about the Giants: Not knowing which team will show up. Looking at the Giants’ schedule is egregiously confounding. They zigged and zagged more than any team in the league, and it seems like they make a trend of that every season. They’re peaking right now and "Smooooov" Eli Manning and his receivers share immeasurable chemistry right now, but it’s still always sketchy taking the Giants, especially if it’s against the best team in the NFL.

What’s not to like about the Packers: Injuries. However, the starting lineup will now be in full-force on both sides of the ball going into Sunday. So what’s not to like now that the offensive line is fully healthy? Just the defense. But the offense has been making up for defensive struggles all season.

However, the 2008 parallels are too much to ignore. The 2008 Giants were the closest to defeating the undefeated Patriots in the regular season; they were the closest this year to defeating the Packers before the Chiefs actually did. They ultimately upset the Patriots in the Super Bowl that year and they have the tools and momentum to do it to the Packers this year.

The verdict: The Giants are at their best when they feel disrespected, and a 7.5-point spread shows no respect (the line actually opened at 9). Defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul is guaranteeing a win, Manning is playing at a high level, the team is coming together at the right time and they're boasting in nobody-believes-in-us fashion. The only thing that will deter them from completing the upset this time is Aaron Rodgers. He’s better now than Tom Brady was in that infamous 18-1 season. He’s the best football player in the world -- that shouldn’t be difficult to decipher. He’ll just have to show it in the final minutes, just as he did when these teams faced six weeks ago. What's not to like about that?
The pick: Green Bay 31, New York 28 (Giants +7.5)

Coaching Matters, And So Does Tim Tebow

noreply@blogger.com (Clayton Terry) — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 22:56:00 +0000

Wild Card Weekend wasn’t particularly wild until, well, you all know what happened last night. The internet blew up because of some Tebow guy, and the rest of this past weekend’s playoff games took a back seat to him. Since Tim Tebow presided the weekend, he’s taking center stage today. But let’s first look at what would’ve been the topic of conversation if he didn’t captivate the universe: Coaching travesties.

Coaching matters. If you don’t believe me, ask the Cincinnati Bengals (or their fans) how Marvin Lewis’ coaching performance on Saturday fared compared to, say, Sean Payton’s or John Fox’s.

With 10:44 left in the second quarter against the Houston Texans, Bengals running back Cedric Benson failed to achieve a first down on a second-and-two run play. Marvin Lewis decided to throw a challenge flag to dispute the spot of the ball.

Before we even get to the outcome of this challenge, why in the world would an NFL coach elect to challenge a ball spot just minutes into the second quarter in a PLAYOFF GAME? Referees make mistakes. They’re old and possessed by Roger Goodell in some way or another. They don’t make the right calls most of the time anymore. You’re telling me that you couldn’t use that challenge on something more significant later in the game? Sometime, say, in the second half? Lewis lost the challenge, then dialed up an Andy Dalton sneak and converted on third-and-one regardless. Nice challenge, Marvin. Gotta use 'em sometime.

When he did decide to use his second and final challenge, it was with five minutes remaining in the first half. Even better timing! Houston tight end Owen Daniels had made an exceptional catch while falling to the turf on third-and-four. The catch did seem refutable, but even so, a second challenge was not worth risking with a 10-7 lead in a tight game. The Bengals lost both challenges in meaningless moments, and the most meaningful moment happened minutes after the final challenge was lost – J.J. Watt’s interception at the line of scrimmage, which was returned for a touchdown just before half. Karma surfaced during a questionable Houston interception in a two-touchdown game with seven minutes remaining. But it couldn’t be challenged, because ball-spot disputes are more important.

But wait, we’re not done! In a 24-10 game with 13:30 remaining (still manageable for the Bengals because of their stout defense), Cincinnati lined up to punt on fourth-and-three. Texans head coach Gary Kubiak calls a timeout, and when the teams come out of that timeout, Marvin Lewis sends the offense out on the field! And you know what happens? Andy Dalton throws an interception.

The Bengals lost 31-10, and coaching probably wasn’t the only reason for the beating, but it sure had a lot to do with the demoralization of this team as the game progressed. As a player, you have to feel down every time your coach loses a challenge. If you think about it as a game of tug-of-war, it gradually pulls your confidence away. Once Dalton threw that pick on fourth-and-three, they fell in the pit. It was over. I didn’t even watch after that. I probably shouldn’t have watched the Falcons stink up the joint the next day either.

Head coach Mike Smith of the Atlanta Falcons chose to go for it twice on fourth down in field goal range against the Giants yesterday. Both were at key points in which the Falcons had the game in reach. Both were quarterback sneaks, one of which was in a formation with no running back behind quarterback Matt Ryan.

Smith elected to go for it the first time on fourth-and-one at the New York Giants’ 24-yard line to start the second quarter, then punted on the next possession on fourth-and-one and the Giants’ 42. Huh? That’s supposed to make sense? You would rather pooch punt in opposing territory than kick a field goal in more advantageous opposing territory? I don’t mind the pooch punt, but when you go for it the possession prior in that circumstance, it makes you look like you have absolutely no rhyme or reason to what you’re doing as a game manager. But wait, we’re not done!

Subsequent the second failed fourth down attempt, which came with 7:51 left in the third quarter, Eli Manning threw a 72-yard touchdown pass to Hakeem Nicks. It was a magnificent catch and run by Nicks, and it immediately followed Mike Smith’s final horrendous decision of the season. Karma calls. Nicks did the Dirty Bird after the touchdown in his honor. It was a fantastic sequence. The Falcons could’ve been down 10-8 at the end of the third quarter, instead they scored two points in the game for those two dumb fourth down calls.

So, obviously, coaching matters in the NFL. If Mike Smith gets fired in the next two years (which he should), some coach is going to stumble upon some nice talent. But you know what else matters? Tim Tebow. More than we could’ve ever imagined. He’s taken the world by storm and has found a place in my man-crush roster. Here are my favorite Tebow moments from last night’s game, followed by compelling reactions across the internet and from my friends:

Tebow’s 51-yard pass on third-and-12 at the beginning of the second quarter. Take a look at the meme on the right. This is the vaunted Conspiracy Keanu. Not only is this specific one hilarious, but there was also a very good chance that it was an accurate conspiracy theory before this play transpired. Tebow had been struggling all game until this beautiful deep bomb – his first of the game. It rendered everyone’s first “TEEEBOWWW!!!” exclamation of the night. He followed with an exceptionally gorgeous touchdown throw on the very next play to Eddie Royal, and we all started to believe that the Broncos could actually win. It was the first time you could say that about Denver and Tim Tebow before the fourth quarter all season.

Tebow’s touchdown run to extend Denver’s lead to 8 at 14-6. Tebow and Cam Newton are the best goal-to-go quarterbacks in the NFL. Newton is obviously better because his throwing ability is more of a concern for defenses, but when the Broncos are in those goal-to-go situations, a Tebow run out of the shotgun is virtually unstoppable. It’s exciting to watch every time because Tebow exudes determination through the entire run, and continues that passion until he’s done pouring out his adrenaline on the sidelines. If it’s not compelling to you, then I don’t know what else to say.

Tebow’s game-winning throw in overtime. Just watch it. It earned a spot on “The List” that still doesn’t have a name. He made it based on every single condition presented, most notably the “Pristine Nostalgia” condition and the overall reaction he caused. Who didn't yell "TEEEEEBOWWWWW!!!!" after that play? He made the new overtime rule insignificant because of it. And he blew up the internet. Here’s how it went down over my Twitter feed:

• “Of course. New overtime rules. Tebow. Of course” -- @LeBatardShow
• “I love how the new overtime rules are gonna lose their virginity with Tebow.” – Bill Simmons (Funniest tweet of the night.)
• “CRIZAZLEBEANS” – Jonah Keri (When the internet started to blow.)
• “!!!!” – Tony Reali
• “Swag. Them. Out” – Michael Smith
• “OMG. Really Tebow?” – Dylan Terry (That’s my brother. Follow him.)
• “Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha! And good night” – Michelle Beadle
• “Oh my gracious!!!!!” – Marty Smith
• “TEBOWWWWWW!!!!!!” – Me
• “Wow!” – Chris Broussard
• “THE INTERNET IS ABOUT TO SHATTER!” – Jim Rome (Turns out it did. Tebow broke the record for sports-related tweets per second at 9,420. That’s an INSANE number.)
• “NO FUCKING WAY!!!!! Teeeeebowwwwww!” – my buddy Chris (Follow him. You’ll read some hilarious stuff from him below.)
• “Tebowtime trumped overtime.” – Adam Schefter
• “Of course” -- @LeBatardShow
• “Teeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee-bowwwwwwwwwwwww!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!” – Bill Simmons
• “Like I said #TEBOW! Time to start Tebowing folks” – LeBron James
• “John Elway sold his soul to the devil for that win.” -- @JhovanyBrorez (Follow him. His tweets are all like this: They don’t always make total sense, which makes them hysterically funny.)
• “LOUD NOISES!!!!!!” -- @john_a_parker (Follow him. I know him through sacstatesports.com and this was a priceless tweet. Obvious Anchorman reference in the midst of the internet screaming Tebow. Brilliant.)
• “Turn it up to 11!” – Tony Reali (Woody Paige at his finest in that link.)
• “That was the quickest overtime game in NFL history, regular season or postseason" -- @ESPNStatsInfo
• “Dick TeBeau (LeBeau) never gave Tebow the respect he earned during this game. BACK YOUR SAFETIES UP. HOF coach got clowned today” – Jason Whitlock
• “Jesus has now moved all church services worldwide to Saturdays so he can watch Tim #Tebow” – My buddy Chris (again)
• “I Really Did Not Know Who Or What The Fuck A Tebow Was Until 4 Minutes Ago.” – Tyler, The Creator (Very significant because Tyler doesn’t care about much of anything.)
• “Tebow passed for 3:16 yards… I’ve seen fucking everything. Life is so much stranger than fiction” – Jason Whitlock (Yes, yes it is.)

I had a fantasy basketball draft a couple hours after the conclusion of the game. The fantasy drafts that my friends and I have are always the best. As you would expect, Tebow was the topic of conversation before it started. Here are the best Tebow-related quotes from our message thread:

My buddy Matt (in response to us talking about one of our fiends still hating Tebow): “Hating Tebow is like hating Jesus. Because Tebow is Jesus.”
Chris: “And if you hate Jesus, then you’re a dick. Tim Christ Jesus Tebow.”

Chris: “What would Tebow do? WWTD”

Matt: “Tebow 3:16 says, ‘For God Loved the world that he gave us Tebow’” (Follow him.)

Chris: “We will now have two Christmases because we will celebrate Tebow’s birthday. August 14 is a national holiday now”

Chris: “Is Tebow available in this draft?”
Matt: “He should be”
Chris: “Steve Francis is… That’s a hot pickup”
Me: “Tebow already go picked” (The draft hadn’t started yet.)
Chris: “Fuck”
Me: “Steve Martin > Steve Francis”

Me: “I can’t wait to write about Tebow tonight” (I got lazy and waited until today.)
Chris: “Tim Tebow Kaman Terry’s Mouth” (Inside joke relating to fantasy basketball team names with Chris Kaman involved. Example: Chris Kaman *insert name here*’s Mouth.)
Me: “I FOUND MY TEAM NAME!!!! THANK GOD FOR CHRIS!!!! And Tebow”
Matt: Thank Tebow for Chris. Thank Tebow for God.”

Yup, I’d say Tim Tebow matters.

Backing Into The NFL Playoff Preview

noreply@blogger.com (Clayton Terry) — Thu, 05 Jan 2012 18:43:00 +0000

If you’re one for comparisons, you can compare me to a few NFL playoff teams because I’ve completely backed into one of my favorite series of columns. Every year, I preview each playoff match-up from every round and make picks against the spread. Last year I had a fantastic time with it, as I went 8-3 against the spread for the series and ultimately cashed out in Reno, thanks to Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. This year, I might be going in a little rusty. Don’t get me wrong, I have a nice grasp of the league and I’m excited about that, but I didn’t wake up until the afternoon games last week (New Years), didn’t go anywhere to watch all the games the week before (so I tried to watch as many as I could illegally online), and I haven’t written anything in nearly a month. I just allowed the magnificence of my last piece to linger while simultaneously imitating the awesomeness of this meme.

So, we’ll preview the 2012 Wild Card round the only way we should: By discounting the teams that backed in most detrimentally, and giving merit to those that didn’t. Which means I’ve given no merit to myself as a human being over the last three weeks. Let’s move on.

Saturday, Jan 7 – 4:30 PM ET
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans

Fitting that this is the first game of the weekend since this is the ultimate backing-in game. The Bengals simply had to win last week to secure a playoff spot. Instead, they lost to the Ravens and became the beneficiaries of Raiders and Jets losses. They finished the second half of their season with losses to the Steelers and Ravens twice, a loss to Houston and squeaked out close wins over the Browns, Rams and Cardinals. Not an impressive stretch.

Houston’s final stretch wasn’t so impressive either. They were 10-3 after fourteen weeks. They’re 10-6. They suffered losses to Carolina, Indianapolis and Tennessee. Rookie third-string quarterback T.J. Yates is at the helm. Andre Johnson has been hobbled all year. Mario Williams has been out since week five. And, to top it all off, there was a chance that Jake Delhomme could start in this game! The Texans backpedaled full speed into this postseason.
So what gives? Andy Dalton and T.J. Yates are both rookie quarterbacks; they cancel each other out. Both teams play great defense and have key injuries at imperative spots. Both backed in. The key measurable? Past performance. The last time these two teams played (week 14) it was a total defensive war. It was probably the most thrilling defensive game all season. Cincinnati made a few huge offensive plays but settled for field goals because Houston’s red zone defense was absolutely stellar. And this was all in Cincinnati. The Texans will be even better defensively at home this Saturday and manage the utmost yardage from its running game.

The bottom line: The Bengals just aren’t ready. They’re a solid team with youth at its key positions, and quite frankly, they benefited from a relatively easy schedule. The next few years might tell a different story.

The pick: Houston 27, Cincinnati 19 (Texans -3)

Saturday, Jan 7 – 8:00 PM ET
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints

This game constitutes our first obvious dichotomy. The Lions seemed like they would either back into the playoffs or miss the playoffs altogether this season when they started showing their cursed and true colors (went 2-5 after starting the season 5-0), then they ripped off three straight, but finished the season by losing to the Matt Flynn-led Packers. The Saints did the complete opposite, as they finished the season 8-0 in both team record and record against the spread.

So what’s to question here? Well, the spread is currently sitting at 10.5 and the Lions love to come back in the second half, so garbage points or even a close fourth quarter is possible. The difference: the Saints don’t want to become a victim of what they suffered last season. The 7-9 Seahawks were 10.5-point underdogs last season at home against the Saints in the first round and won. Odd are, New Orleans is cognizant of that. Oh, and it’s probably not a good idea to bet against Drew Brees in prime time. That would be a horrible way to start your playoff picks.

The pick: New Orleans 38, Detroit 24 (Saints -10.5)

Sunday, Jan 8 – 1:00 PM ET
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants

Here we go... The moment we’ve all been waiting for…
Actually, it’s just the moment I’ve been waiting for. My chance to bet against the Atlanta Falcons in the playoffs! The most mediocre team in the league! Atlanta’s 2011 road slate: wins over Seattle, Detroit, Indianapolis and Carolina. They lost to Tampa Bay on the road this year, got slaughtered by Chicago and fell to Houston and New Orleans. Their quality wins (home against the Eagles in week two and at Detroit in week seven) are well, not so quality. The epicenter of the offense aimlessly vacillates between Michael Turner and Matt Ryan’s weaponry. There isn’t one thing about this team you should like unless you expect them to play an absolutely perfect four quarters.

If you’re looking at this game from the Giants perspective, then you might have some reasons to be concerned. You don’t know which Eli Manning you’re going to get, and you don’t know if the secondary will be average or putrid (because it’s obviously never good). But there’s one thing you know you’re getting: A killer defensive line that can cause as much havoc as the Super Bowl team of 2007-08 did. It’s something worth betting on as a single entity right now. It’s that good. And if you’re worried about Manning, keep in mind that the Falcons secondary is possibly the most overrated in the NFL at 20th in the league.

The pick: New York 27, Atlanta 17 (Giants -3)

Sunday, Jan 8 – 4:30 PM ET
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

The Broncos backed in as badly as the Bengals, losing three straight in ugly fashion to end the season while counting on Oakland’s loss to San Diego in the final week. The Steelers backed in too with less-than-stellar performances against the 49ers and Browns to end the season. So what gives in this one? The power and mystique of Tim Tebow.

Not really, but how can you give nine points and take a team with no Rashard Mendenhall, no Ryan Clark and a badly hobbled Ben Roethlisberger? The fabulous Denver pass rush will be too daunting and the Steelers will obviously be one-dimensional. The Broncos have looked horrific in past weeks, but this game has the makings of a close, low-scoring contest with the possibility of Tim Tebow being involved in the final minutes. If the line moves to 10 by Sunday, it would be hard not to go that route. The Steelers have had problems covering the spread against sub-par opponents all season (Colts, Jaguars, Chiefs and Browns, to name a few). Despite being a playoff team, the Broncos are one of those sub-par opponents. It’s difficult to see the Steelers actually falling to the Tebows, but it’s tough to foresee an offensive explosion from them considering the injuries they’re plagued with. We won’t have to worry about anyone backing into the divisional round, but the Steelers will certainly be limping their way there.

The pick: Pittsburgh 20, Denver 13 (Broncos +9)

Tim Tebow, Cam Newton, Drake and Mac Miller: All in Taste

noreply@blogger.com (Clayton Terry) — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 08:37:00 +0000

Two of the most enjoyable topics of conversation in the male (and some of the female) universe are sports and music. Sports are fun to talk about because any particular take on something can be either objective or subjective, yet whatever subjectivity you may have has the opportunity to be validated or disproved somewhere down the line, which inevitably creates another conversation. In music, takes are completely subjective. It’s all based on personal taste. No two people attain the same exact tastes in music, so it’s fun to talk about in both agreement and disagreement, even though every disagreement usually ends with something nonsensical like “He sucks” or “What am I listening to?? This band is garbage!” without much analysis behind it.

You’d think it would make more sense to look at sports the complete opposite, by watching objectively all the way until the end result (The Super Bowl, World Series, championship game, or even just the end of a game or a specific player’s career), but we don’t. Our opinions always get in the way, we always have to have “thoughts” on certain “sports topics,” and we almost always have to have a prediction. It’s engrained in our psyche of bar top banter by now.

All of this is an integral part of why Tim Tebow has become such a phenomenon. Everybody had an opinion Tebow before he even stepped on an NFL field. Sports are now no different than music in that they have become highly opinionated topics of conversation. We have to express our tastes in teams, players, or any compelling figure before a conversation even consummates. You can thank the NBA and this guy named LeBron James for augmenting that. Love that game.

And just yesterday, in the midst of Tebowmania and all the Tebow topics infiltrating ESPN, a big question arose:

Cam or Tebow?

Other than the subjectivity within its consumers' tastes, you’re probably wondering why music is intertwined in this column. Let’s attempt to solve the abovementioned question by implementing cross-entertainment parallels between sports figures and contemporary music figures.

The optimal comparison for Tim Tebow is Drake. I know, it sounds weird, but let me explain:

1) Both were thrown into the mainstream almost immediately without having to prove much at the highest level.

2) Both gained immense popularity at the outset of their careers based on small sample sizes.

3) Both became -- and are -- polarizing figures because of their skill sets rather than their personalities (when Drake’s first album came out, you either loved him or you hated him with no in-between, but he's never been perceived as an unlikeable guy).

4) Both are now tough to figure out (Tebow is 6-1 as a starter and beginning to make his critics believe in something they never felt they could, Drake just released a great album that is causing dissenters of his overwhelmingly mainstream hip-hop/Cash Money Records sound take an extra listen).

5) Both are exuding substance (Tebow didn’t just improve to 6-1 as a starter on Sunday, he was legitimately fun to watch and put on a brilliant second half performance highlighted by this play; Drake went a different direction with Take Care by expressing triumphant lyrics, admirably defiant lyrics, lyrics of overcoming and staying true to himself rather than just expressing fame and money although he didn’t completely remove that subject matter, lyrics pertaining to Mac Dre and the Bay Area rap scene that he has fascinatingly started to embrace, intriguing lyrics referring to himself as an “Underground King” even though he’s nothing of the sort, lyrics giving merit to his city and every city, inserted more slow jams to complement his finely textured voice, sprinkled in some great party/club songs, and ultimately compiled an album that flows in and out of all those aspects almost seamlessly).

* * *

Cam Newton was fizzling out as a compelling figure and unanimous Rookie of the Year until his gaudy performance last Sunday and the new “Tebow or Cam?” stuff. Which is interesting, because a popular artist who shares some of Newton’s most admirable traits has sort of fizzled out in recent weeks as well.

Mac Miller may not be one of the best hip-hop artists out right now, but he’s easily one of the most commendable. He began as somewhat of a gimmick artist (like Cam in Auburn’s offensive system), playing exclusively upbeat, happy-go-lucky songs about a care-free lifestyle intended for the care-free high school student or stoner. All the while, he portrayed brilliant talent for an independent artist but never made it clear if he would ever change his style if he made the mainstream jump (much like Cam as a college quarterback). However, the most important attributes both of these figures obtain are their undeniably unfazed attitudes. Although it was uncertain if their styles would translate to the next level, their intangibles should’ve never been in doubt.

The only reason those doubts existed was because both were involved in prior “gimmicks” that didn’t seem sustainable, but that doesn’t mean the purpose wasn’t there. Substance lingered. Mac Miller isn’t going to be a 19 year-old, care-free living kid his entire life, and it's clear that he's cognizant of that now, but he’s still an independent artist who’s doing everything the right way. So when his first album got bashed and criticized last month, he still thrived. The quality mixtapes he released prior to Blue Slide Park (five in total) made his immensely devoted fan base feel obligated to buy the hard copy. The first-week sales were inevitable and unparalleled for an artist who’s risen to prominence the way he has. He climbed to that spot behind catchy hooks, a unique voice, an array of fantastic music videos on YouTube and a social media savvy that’s transcending the way artists make their mark. He’s all about his fans and they love his image because he’s doing the stoner kid persona the right way. He cares about putting on good live shows and even streamed his entire album release concert at the House of Blues in Hollywood over Ustream, which were both awesome and refreshing personal experiences.

As for Cam Newton, well, you should know my affection for him already. He captivates with his diverse set of talents, exudes a charismatic aura that every day is the “Best Day Ever,” is an undisputed leader, is never satisfied, takes responsibility, has made everyone forget about the controversy that swirled around him at Auburn because he says all the right things, has stared in the face of that disparagement only to “Smile Back,” has taken complete control of the Carolina Panthers franchise, and, oh yeah, just broke the record for rushing touchdowns in a single season for a quarterback.

As with Mac Miller, Cam is just a kid. He’s a rookie doing all these things like a poised veteran. And his image is just as significant as his talents.

But couldn’t some of those attributes be used to describe Tim Tebow as well? People forget how polarizing Cam Newton really was coming out of the draft; he just managed to form everyone’s opinions and disprove the dissenters by week one of the season. Tebow says the right things, is an undisputed leader, is never satisfied, defies criticism, invigorates his entire team and has become the face of the Denver Broncos in the same way Cam has accomplished everything he has thus far with the Panthers.

* * *

So, back to the initial question: If you disregard your inherent subjectivity towards certain styles, it’s possible to like both Drake and Mac Miller in the same way it’s possible to like both Cam Newton and Tim Tebow. When I first heard of Mac Miller, I watched his “Nikes On My Feet” video and thought it was a joke. When I first heard Drake I thought he was an annoying Lil Wayne prototype. I started rooting for Cam Newton as an NFL quarterback before he was even drafted. When Tim Tebow got drafted in the first round the year before, I thought he was chosen ridiculously high but remained objective because of the same reasons I loved Newton coming in.

Now, I’m an official Mac Miller fan although I wonder which direction Blue Slide Park and his fame will take him. I love the path Drake took with Take Care, but wonder where he’ll go from here. I love what Tim Tebow showcased last Sunday, but wonder how far he can really go as an NFL quarterback. And, well, there’s Superman.

In other words, our perspectives and opinions on these kinds of figures always have the potential to change more than once. Players leave behind legacies when they retire, artists leave behind legacies long after they fade into obscurity. These things are what make these topics of conversation so endless and compelling. For now, our opinions are simply in good (or bad) taste.

Your NFL Leftovers

noreply@blogger.com (Clayton Terry) — Wed, 30 Nov 2011 16:36:00 +0000

Now that I’ve fully recovered from both my Vegas hangover and my Thanksgiving turkey hangover, here are some NFL leftovers to grub on:

THE TURKEY

The main course goes to none other than the Green Bay Packers. Just like the turkey itself, there’s no need to elaborate on how good the 11-0 Packers are. They’re consistently brilliant and Aaron Rodgers has officially separated himself as the best quarterback in the league. Their remaining schedule: at the Giants, home against the Raiders, at the Chiefs, then home against the Bears and Lions to end the season. Do you see them losing any of those games right now? Yeah, neither do I.

THE STUFFING

The stuffing is my favorite dish that nobody really talks about. For some reason, it always gets overlooked. It’s almost like it’s just there; but it gets the job done and I always feel like I enjoy it more than everyone else. That was the Oakland Raiders on Sunday. Nothing flashy, they just got the necessary win, reached a 7-4 record and retained the AFC West lead. Key injuries lingered and were apparent offensively as there was virtually no explosiveness, but the Raiders managed a 25-20 win over a very good Bears team, which was crucial. Although Caleb Hanie was the featured quarterback for Chicago and offensive coordinator Mike Martz elected to refrain from featuring Matt Forte early and often, the fact that the Raiders beat the Bears at their greatest assets (defense and special teams) is a significant accomplishment at this point in the season. The Oakland defense has been suspect all year but finds itself riding a great deal of confidence into the final stretch. If that confidence persists as the Raiders try to get completely healthy offensively, the looming three-game stretch (at Miami, at Green Bay and home against the Lions) should pass without any significant blemishes or fears of Tebow vaulting the Broncos to the division lead. And yes, I’m a victim of referring Tim Tebow without initially typing his first name.

THE MASHED POTATOES

This dish is for the mashed-up playoff picture. No different than three weeks ago, the Packers are way ahead of the pack and both North divisions are jumbled. But who’s going to fill the Wild Card slots and who in the world is going to win the AFC North? Are the Texans going to hold on to the AFC South lead with T.J. Yates or even Jake Delhomme at quarterback? Let’s sort this out right now:

The Texans have games left against Atlanta at home, at Cincinnati, home against Carolina and at Indianapolis before their week 17 match up against the Titans. Loss, loss, win, win. That culminates in a 10-5 record going into the last game. At worst, they’ll be 9-6 if something weird happens or if Superman goes off. The Titans play at Buffalo, home against the Saints, at Indy and home against the Jaguars. Win (but could go either way), loss, win, win. That’s a 9-6 record at best going into the last game, so this week’s Buffalo game is critical. The remaining schedule favors the Texans, unless Matt Hasselbeck gets benched (Jake Locker was awesome against Atlanta during my afternoon Vegas slate), or their quarterback situation completely cripples them in spite of the stout running game and defense. Chalk up the Texans here.

From the looks of it, the Ravens will either win the AFC North or tie with the Steelers, and Baltimore owns that tiebreaker. So the Steelers receive a Wild Card spot by default. But who gets the last spot? It’s down to three teams at this point: Bengals, Broncos, Jets and Titans. The Bills have faded into obscurity and the Chargers are terrible. The Bengals still have games against the Ravens and Steelers again, and although the first two contests illuminated that the Bengals are good enough to hang with the big dogs, they might not be good enough to beat them. Sandwiched between those games are the Texans, Rams and Cardinals, so Cincy is in good shape even if they ultimately lose four to the top dogs of the North this year. That week 17 game versus Baltimore at home seems winnable though, so 11-5 easily fends off the Broncos, Chris Johnson and Mark Sanchez. Wait, fending off Chris Johnson and Mark Sanchez isn’t hard to do at all… unless you’re the Bills or the Bucs.

As for the NFC, the division titles seem pretty locked up, and considering the remaining schedules, the seeding will look like this:

1. Packers
2. 49ers
3. Saints
4. Cowboys

But the Wild Card picture is a lot fuzzier. If I were to ask you which of these three teams was worse two weeks ago – the Falcons, Lions, Giants and Bears (with Cutler) – what would you have said? Wouldn’t you have said the Falcons? Now that the Giants are free-falling, the Lions are combusting and Cutler is out until the playoffs, the Falcons are the best of the bunch. Although they’re as mediocre as mediocre gets, their remaining schedule is ridiculously easy (the only tough game is at New Orleans in week 16 on Monday Night Football) and they’ll probably finish 11-5 and get dismantled by Dallas in the first round of the playoffs. The last spot is between the Lions and Bears because the Giants have the roughest remaining stretch of any contender. Despite the injury to Jay Cutler, the Bears have an ostensibly survivable road ahead of them that will be headlined by defense and special teams (Chiefs, Broncos, Seahawks, Packers, Vikings). Before the quarterback injury, Chicago was emerging as the second best team in the NFC. If Cutler is indeed healthy by postseason time, how awesome will Bears/Saints be? I’m salivating.

Did you notice that the Lions got completely disregarded at the end of that paragraph? That’s for the next dish.

THE CANNED CRANBERRY SAUCE

Everybody hates this stuff. Except for me. Everybody passes the canned stuff for the unprocessed gourmet version. Not me. I proudly admit it every year and consider it the personal satisfaction of Thanksgiving that I don’t have to share with anyone else. Which is sort of like the Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection – a title and phenomenon I discovered and created myself last year. Before this season, I tagged the Detroit Lions with this year’s Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection curse, considering the inordinate number of “sleeper” picks and exorbitant amounts of hype given to the team preseason. However, by week four, I gave up on my oh-so-confident prediction, handing the curse to Philadelphia and changing its name to the “Inordinate Hype Team.”

I never should’ve done that. Here’s what I wrote in early September about the Lions and their inevitable curse:

Even if the Lions semi-meet expectations and are in the playoff mix by week 12, the Saints are still on the horizon along with San Diego and the Packers twice. Their season schedule is somewhat frontloaded and very backloaded. A bad start implodes the season immediately; a playoff-caliber season capped off with a 3-5 or 2-6 second half would be all but disheartening – inauspicious prospects for a young, encouraging team.

Throw in another tough game (Oakland), an extremely one-dimensional offense, a crumbling defense and a Bad Boy Lions identity gone wrong (Side note: I love the aura the Lions bring, no matter how bad it's backfiring right now, and I don't care what anybody else thinks about it. Just like my love for canned cranberry sauce.) and the Lions are staring directly at that 3-5 or 2-6 second-half slide. The lesson: Stick to your guns, or you'll get stomped on.

Too soon?

THE GREEN BEANS

I hate green beans. I can’t even look at them. My family doesn’t even pass them my direction because they just know. When the bowl of green beans does find its way to my side of the table and somehow ends up right in front of me, it just looks like it doesn’t belong on the table among the rest of the dishes. It looks like a lost soul that doesn’t really know what’s going on, but does a good job of blending in and taking a role. Just like Alex Smith.
THE PUMPKIN PIE

Pumpkin pie is the perfect Thanksgiving dessert. It’s completely mind numbing and utterly enjoyable. It’s so good that you just eat it without saying a word to yourself or anyone else that might be eating it too, which causes it to be overlooked at times. Drew Brees and the Saints were the perfect dessert to end the Thanksgiving weekend, and reminded us all how enjoyable the Saints are to watch in the Superdome when they’re on all cylinders. 30,000 yards in seven years??? How does that get overlooked? Brees is just too perfectly good.

THE ICE CREAM CAKE

Ice cream cake is totally superfluous, but it’s rich and decadent. Which are the same words you can use to describe the New England Patriots offense. Expect more of that considering the cake schedule they’re facing the rest of the season.

THE TURKEY SANDWICH

The best leftovers in the history of leftovers. You always save the best for last. Here’s a quick (although belated) Vegas recap:

Didn’t get carried away before Sunday; got my poker urges out early although I didn’t do so well; didn’t spend all my money at a strip club; had a nice roulette run that led to some free drinks; got drunk but not belligerent; saw Deadmau5 at XS Nightclub; won all of my NFL bets on Sunday (Packers, Lions and Ravens in a riveting three-team teaser, the Bears -4 and the second-half over in that same game); completely avoided the Eagles (although the first-half under at +110 was so tempting. My sports betting senses were on point); and made it home in one piece. Overall, it was a successful trip that I hope happens once a year for the rest of my life. There’s a chance I will fall into a gambling problem.

Week 13 picks: SEAHAWKS (+3) over Eagles; Titans (+2.5) over BILLS; BEARS (-7) over Chiefs; Raiders (+3) over DOLPHINS; STEELERS (-6.5) over Bengals; REDSKINS (+3) over Jets; TEXANS (+3) over Falcons; Broncos (+2) over VIKINGS; BUCS (-3) over Panthers; PATRIOTS (-20.5) over Colts; BROWNS (+6.5) over Ravens; 49ERS (-13.5) over Rams; Cowboys (-4.5) over CARDINALS; Packers (-7) over GIANTS; SAINTS (-9) over Lions; Chargers (-3) over JAGS

(An Attempt at) Regulating My Vegas Weekend

noreply@blogger.com (Clayton Terry) — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 19:27:00 +0000

It’s finally here – a weekend in Vegas with the majority of my closest friends for the first time since we’ve turned 21. The overall goal (for me personally) is to not run dry before Sunday. NFL betting must take precedence over any other Vegas aspect this weekend. So for my personal reference and benefit, I feel like a ten-segment set of regulations will be essential. Friends, nightlife, drinking and gambling all in the same weekend is a potential recipe for disaster for someone who used to gamble profusely, loves hanging out with his closest friends and just so happens to drink and gamble heavily with his closest friends if put in the right situation. Here’s how my Saturday would go if I decided not to lay out this forthcoming manifesto:

Wake up at noon; spend $15 on lunch; walk directly to the blackjack table and lose $100 in 5 minutes; spend money on alcohol and start drinking at around three or four o’clock because I ruin my opportunity at free drinks in the casino; spend more money on food and alcohol at dinner; go clubbing and spend the rest of my money; wake up at 2 p.m. Sunday afternoon vehemently pissed because I don’t remember what happened last night, missed nearly every game, and only have enough money to put down on a Sunday Night Football game featuring the prominent stay-away betting team in the NFL (the Eagles); come home with empty pockets because I stupidly bet on the Eagles to cover the spread as I begin my Broke College Kid initiation process. The thought of these events having a good chance of transpiring is where the ten aspects of my preparation come in. If you’re reading this and you so happen to be one of the people going with me on this trip, take notes if needed.

1. Don’t get carried away before Sunday. The array of bets is going to be enticing. As with every casino, the possibility of putting money down is present as soon as you walk in. My recurring mistake in casinos: sitting down at the blackjack table first and foremost. Not doing that is going to be a tough task, so I’ll need to get my mind off it by seeing which college football games to bet on and which UFC 139 fights portray the best odds. The wise decision will be to make only one of those bets, play random card games in the meantime, then hit the blackjack table if anything pays out. Remember, the intention of the weekend is for it to culminate in the ultimate Sunday of NFL betting at the Mirage, the Hilton, or any prominent sportsbook of the sort (as best a college kid can that’s taking half his life savings with him). As of right now (as I refer to offshore betting websites), Ohio State (-7) over Penn State, Oregon (-14.5) over USC and Brian Bowles (+180 money line) over Urijah Faber look like the best Saturday night sports bets. I’ll probably bet on Ohio State because I’m a huge Faber fan (Sactown’s Finest) and betting against Penn State would be the equivalent of betting against my newfound hatred for college football. Perfect way to start the weekend! Even though I’ll be arriving on Friday. Which leads to this next gambling rule of thumb…

2. Get your poker urges out of the way early. The majority of my friends are showing up later than me on Friday, so it will be the perfect day to get my poker fix. Poker is always my favorite, because even though it seems like a slow game, there’s a lot going on that can’t be seen and your chances of losing $500 in five minutes are a lot slimmer than it is when you’re getting crushed by a blackjack dealer. More than that, poker isn’t the kind of game you play when you’re partying with 15 friends. I never like to drink when playing this game in the first place, but it will be tempting to since it’s my first Vegas trip. Two drinks max. I don’t plan on pulling a Scotty Nguyen over the weekend.

3. Sit at the slot machines for free drinks, not at the tables. We sort of went over this already, but sitting at the tables in hopes of piling up on alcohol is always a bad idea. The only good table for that is craps, except my craps accomplice probably won’t be making this trip. Which is a shame because of my longtime dream of reenacting this at a Vegas craps table. I hate slots, but watching sports simultaneously is never terrible, and hopping around from that to other rigged games of the sort is always an option.

4. If the option for a trip to the strip club arises, turn down it down. Remember, you need money for Sunday betting. Ummm….

5. First NFL betting rule: Stay away from the Eagles. Now we’re getting to the good stuff. I know this is a way easier assumption now that Michael Vick is questionable, but the Eagles are the one team to stay away from, whether it’s in terms of betting for or against. It will be hard for me not to bet on a Sunday Night Football game in Vegas, but I’m electing to refrain even if Vick doesn’t play. Because if he doesn’t, Andy Reid will unintentionally do the right thing by giving LeSean McCoy the ball 30 times.

6. Personally emulate this video.

7. Second NFL betting rule: Take the tasty teasers, just don’t get out of hand. If you don’t know what a teaser is and don’t care, just skip this segment. If you want to know what it is, then here you go: These bets come in the form of 6-point, 6.5-point, 7-point and sometimes 10-point teasers. Basically, you can scale a point spread in your favor by those amounts, but your payout odds decrease. For example, if the Cowboys are favored by eight points against the Redskins (which they are), taking them in a 7-point teaser makes them only 1-point favorites. However, the payout goes from a $10 risk/$9.09 payout to a $10 risk/lower payout. That payout is uncertain because there’s one catch: you have to bet on at least two teams at once in a teaser. So if you threw the Packers and Cowboys in a 7-point teaser, you would be risking $10 for a $7.69 payout with the Cowboys giving just one point and the Packers giving seven (the Packers are 14-point favorites right now), and both teams have to cover to win the bet. In other words, only bet on teasers when scaling back the spread is too much to pass up and three teams offer enticement, but never more than three. Four or more just gets you into trouble.

There are five morning games that provide permutations for some tempting 7-point teasers. Here’s what the spreads look like once the teaser is implemented (home team in caps): RAVENS (Pick) over Bengals; Raiders (+6) over VIKINGS; LIONS (pick) over Panthers; PACKERS (-7) over Bucs; Cowboys (-1) over REDSKINS.

The verdict: I can’t bet on the Raiders because it’s already too emotionally grueling and I hate betting on Tony Romo. The other three games look like locks, no? The other lock: BEARS (-3.5) over the Chargers in the afternoon. I wish I could wire transfer that money directly from my ING account RIGHT NOW.

8. Third NFL betting rule: Be cognizant of last week’s “Swing Games.” Which is exactly why taking the Bears is a no-brainer. Two teams that swung in completely opposite directions last week are playing against one another this Sunday. Additionally, the Bills look like a lock against the Dolphins but they just can’t be trusted right now. The Raiders might be gaining momentum but the Vikings match-up is too dicey and Carson Palmer will have to throw more than 20 times once Minnesota loads the box. My unlimited passion for Cam Newton can’t even supersede how bad the Panthers defense is. Josh Freeman is letting me down and the Bucs have no chance of ruining my teaser unless Aaron Rodgers doesn’t show up. And, as always, stay away from the Eagles.
9. It’s your best friend’s 21st birthday, not yours. You already endured your 21st birthday drunken stupor in San Francisco this summer. Remember that. Ummmmm……

10. Don’t blow all your money. You will officially be a broke college kid like everyone else after this trip if you do. Ummmmmmmm……….

Complete list of Week 11 NFL picks, just for fun: Jets (-6.5) over BRONCOS; Bills (+2) over DOLPHINS; RAVENS (-7) over Bengals; Jaguars (PK) over BROWNS; Raiders (-1) over VIKINGS; LIONS (-7) over Panthers; PACKERS (-14) over Bucs; REDSKINS (+7.5) over Cowboys; Cardinals (+9.5) over 49ERS; Seahawks (+2) over RAMS; FALCONS (-6) over Titans; BEARS (-3.5) over Chargers; GIANTS (-5) over Eagles; PATRIOTS (-15) over Chiefs

NFL Week 10: Swing Games

noreply@blogger.com (Clayton Terry) — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 20:13:00 +0000

What have we learned after 9 weeks of the NFL season? Well, we’ve learned that the Green Bay Packers are in a class of their own and the rest of the league will be fighting for the remaining playoff spots. However, this doesn’t mean that those remaining slots aren’t imperative. A team’s road to the Packers could change the dynamic of the season. The North divisions in both conferences are comprised of three playoff contenders, and divisions such as the NFC South, AFC West, and AFC East are up for grabs. Week 10 consists of a handful of games that should start to smooth things out a little bit, so let’s preview this weekend’s significant swing games.

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (Tonight at 8:20 PM EST)

Both of these teams have been horrifically sloppy as of late. Raiders quarterbacks have combined for nine interceptions in the last two games, and Philip Rivers has thrown 14 interceptions on the season – a ghastly number for an elite NFL quarterback. Both of these teams have secondary issues, injury issues, and are tops in the league in total turnovers (Oakland is third in the AFC with 16, San Diego tied for most in the NFL with 19). The Raiders have lost two games in a row (home against the Chiefs and Broncos), and the Chargers have lost three in a row (at the Jets, at the Chiefs, home against the Packers). Both teams are free-falling yet find themselves tied at the top of the AFC West. In other words, this division is really bad.

But if the Chargers can snap their losing streak and the Raiders suffer a third straight division loss, the divisional picture becomes very clear. Carson Palmer made some nice throws last week and got his receivers involved, but he still threw three interceptions and the defense was absolutely dreadful. Willis McGahee and Tim Tebow accounted for 405 yards alone in that game. If the Broncos can manage that much yardage out of two players, imagine what the San Diego offense will be able to do tonight with its cast of offensive weapons. There’s no Darren McFadden to keep the Chargers off the field and control the game. The Raiders will need an all-out flawless performance tonight to win, because a 4-5 record with remaining games against the Bears, Lions, Packers and Chargers again creates a grim second half picture. Which is too bad, because there's no two things I enjoy more in the NFL than watching the Raiders win and Philip Rivers pout like a first-grader on the sidelines.

The pick: CHARGERS (-7) over Raiders

Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys

Although the New York Giants appear to have pulled away as the most reliable team in the NFC East, the Cowboys actually have a legitimate chance to make the playoffs if you look at their remaining schedule. After this week’s game versus Buffalo, they go to Washington, have Miami at home and then go to Arizona. If the Cowboys manage to go 4-0 in the next four games, they’ll be sitting at 8-4 with two games left against the Giants. So this game against the Bills is vastly significant. The Bills got manhandled by the Jets last week, which is either a product of the Jets coming into their own or the Bills fizzling out, and that’s something Buffalo can’t afford. The AFC East is in a deadlocked three-way tie with New England sliding. The Jets and Patriots happen to play each other on Sunday night, so achieving a 6-3 record with contests left against each of those teams is enormous for the Bills.

DeMarco Murray proved he wasn’t a one-hit wonder last week with his 139-yard performance, so Dallas has some legitimate balance in its offense right now. As always, the question marks are in its secondary (if you're still turning a blind eye to Tony Romo). If Ryan Fitzpatrick can recover from his funk (he hasn’t thrown more than two touchdown passes in a game since week two, has thrown for over 200 yards only twice in the last five games, and has thrown six interceptions in the last four games), then the Bills have a shot to win or at least make a Detroit-esque second half comeback. Besides the whole Megatron part.

The pick: Bills (+5.5) over COWBOYS

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta has been able to beat teams how it sees fit, using Michael Turner more prevalently against teams that struggle against the run and stretching the field against teams with secondary deficiencies. I guess we can expect a lot of Michael Turner this Sunday against the Saints. New Orleans is 17th against the run statistically this season, and appears even worse than that in game action. As if the defense isn’t sloppy enough, Drew Brees and the offense have been even more so. Despite their win against Tampa Bay last week, the Saints had a tough time finishing drives and went three for six in the red zone. The Bucs have been everything but good this season despite their record, and the Rams team that beat the Saints the week prior isn’t exactly a powerhouse. If the Saints don’t turn things around this week in a harsh environment on the road, they’ll find themselves at 6-4 and suddenly the Falcons will be in the driver’s seat in the NFC South. This game alone has the potential to change the dynamic of the entire division for the rest of the season.

The pick: FALCONS (PK) over Saints

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Along with the Bills, the Bengals have been the surprise of the AFC this year, and they’re legitimately good. The defense is ranked second against the run and tenth against the pass. It’s not a stretch to say that the only defenses playing better right now are in Baltimore and San Francisco. However, the Steelers just came off a loss to the Ravens and will be prepping James Harrison and company for a feeding frenzy after rookie quarterback Andy Dalton. Dalton would be the undisputed Rookie of the Year if Cam Newton wasn’t around, but the schedule has been very fortunate thus far for the Bengals. The Bengals may be legitimately good, but they’re not legitimately great. A 7-2 record and control of the AFC North? That would induce hours upon hours of Bengals talk on ESPN next week.

The pick: Steelers (-3) over BENGALS

Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks

Trust me, this is a swing game. Just hear me out:

Century Link field is an insane atmosphere and wacky things always happen there. Joe Flacco can easily digress from last week’s brilliant crunch-time performance. The Ravens just beat the Steelers for the second time in a row and will be coming down from that high. Remember when they lost to the Jaguars on Monday Night Football three weeks ago and Flacco looked utterly confused, then fell behind by a large margin to the Cardinals a week later? This is still that same team with those same players. Don’t get set to anoint the Ravens just yet. The AFC North isn’t anywhere near clinched.

The pick: SEAHAWKS (+7) over Ravens

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers
This is unequivocally the most prominent swing game of the week. It may not seem like it because the 49ers clinched the NFC West three weeks ago and the Giants are sitting pretty at the top of the NFC East, but these teams are fighting for the number two seed in the conference. These teams are on a fantastic roll, playing to their strengths better than any team in the league besides the Packers. Eli Manning has been phenomenal and so has the San Francisco defense. The only uncertainties in this game would be the New York run defense and the fact that the San Francisco secondary hasn’t really been tested outside of Calvin Johnson. With that in mind, neither team should waver or shy away from what it does best in this game. Mark this one down as the Non-Rivalry Game of the Week (this can't be considered a rivalry unless you're still living in the 80s and 90s or you still think about this game from time to time).

The pick: Giants (+3.5) over 49ERS

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

Yes! Our weekly dose of Megatron is back!

On another note: From here on out, the Lions and Bears will be fighting for an NFC Wild Card spot, and it starts this week. Whether you’re a believer or not, the Bears have been very good this year and Matt Forte is a complete monster. Moreover, teams have been lethargic in games following bye weeks this season (12-12 record), especially when those games have been on the road (3-8). The Lions obtain considerable strengths but not many dimensions with running back Jahvid Best still out. Calvin Johnson won’t be able to swing this one on his own. At 5-3 and 6-2, the Lions and Bears will be scrounging for playoff positioning as the Packers watch from afar. With the Packers playing the Vikings on Monday night, week 10 will personify all of that.

The pick: BEARS (-3) over Lions

New England Patriots at New York Jets

While the Patriots are sliding and the secondary continues to collapse, the Jets seem to be coming together nicely. Since losing three straight road games to Oakland, Baltimore and the Patriots, Gang Green has won three straight games in convincing fashion. In the one close contest of the three against San Diego, Shonn Greene ran the ball for 112 yards and the patented smash-mouth attack came to fruition for the first time this season. That game was the turning point, and the Jets are themselves again. The swagger is apparent, Mark Sanchez has been reliable, Plaxico Burress has been brilliant and the defense is forcing turnovers.

On the other hand, the Patriots have been nothing of the sort. When these teams last faced in week five, New England gave the Jets some of their own medicine and Benjarvus Green-Ellis rushed for 136 yards. Since then, no Patriots runner has rushed for more than 60, and the passing offense has been struggling as well. Dallas blanketed the underneath routes the Patriots are so accustomed to targeting in week six. They allowed the “deep threats” to run free and the Patriots had a rough time gaining any offensive rhythm. Since then, Tom Brady has struggled to consistently play at his elite level. Wes Welker has been shut down, and when that happens, the tandem tight ends (Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez) are all Brady has to work with down the field. Absolutely no deep threat is viable enough to give Brady breathing room when Welker gets blanketed, and it’s become an evident quandary for the New England offense – which accounts for a vast majority of the team’s success. What’s more, the Jets have learned how to beat the Patriots and deter their offensive scheme better than any team over the years.

So honestly, can a Sunday night rivalry in week 10 get any better? One team has slid halfway down an avalanche; the other has brushed off the snow and managed to pull itself halfway back up the mountain. Both teams know what to expect from one another. So can the big brother of the AFC East regain command in a deadlocked division? Do the Jets have their full-fledged swagger back? Will they do this again if they win because they realize that a victory probably determines the division?
Or maybe Tom Brady just walks into New Meadowlands and starts firing bullets like nothing ever happened. The rule is to never bet against Brady after a loss, but the Patriots have already lost two straight. There’s a reason the spread in this one is basically a pick. The ultimate swing games never give points to anyone.

The pick: JETS (-1) over Patriots

It's Official

noreply@blogger.com (Clayton Terry) — Thu, 27 Oct 2011 18:02:00 +0000

It’s official: I have an extra week to dwell over the excruciating uncertainty of the Carson Palmer reclamation project, even though I was pessimistic as ever when the trade had initially consummated. Top that off with Darren McFadden and Sebastian Janikowski’s injuries, and I’m a nervous wreck as a football fan. Good thing other aspects of sports have become official enough to marvel over.
It’s official: Calvin Johnson is the best wide receiver in the NFL. Step aside, Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, you’ve been replaced by the most freakish talent at a skill position since Randy Moss. His dominance as a goal line target is utterly unstoppable, his hands are impeccable, his speed is exceptional and his route running is egregiously overlooked. He can run slant routes with the best of them and is deadly after the catch. He gets doubled and sometimes even triple-covered every game, but it doesn’t seem to matter at all. He can beat cornerbacks off the line and beat them deep. There’s nothing Calvin Johnson can’t do as a receiver. Remember when he was on pace to score 24 touchdowns after the first four weeks? He’s still on that pace through seven games. I can watch this every day for the remainder of my existence and say I lived a bountiful life. Megatron will be fighting with Aaron Rodgers for MVP honors this season, and he might just win it.

It’s official: Matt Forte is an elite NFL running back. It does help that he’s become somewhat like the reincarnation of Marshall Faulk under Mike Martz’ offense, but Forte is completely taking advantage of it. Jay Cutler isn’t responsible for even half of the offense because Forte has been so good as both a runner and a pass-catcher. He’s more than just the identity of the offense – he’s the overpowering strength of the whole team. He’s averaging over five yards per carry and 11 yards per catch. Without Matt Forte, the Bears aren’t even close to playoff-caliber.

It’s official: Tim Tebow is who we should think he is. Tim Tebow has been talked about so much that it should be no surprise as to what he’s comprised of as an NFL football player. He’s an overall great athlete with unusual throwing mechanics, will never attain the abilities to throw over 250 yards per game on a constant basis, but is a phenomenal leader and does what he can to lead his team to a victory. So we can stop talking about him now, even though that’s never going to happen. Love or hate Tim Tebow, we all know what his make-up is by now. He gives the Broncos the best chance to win every game, so who cares what it looks like? With Tebow, the value is in the result, not the process.

It’s official: Cam Newton is for real. I know I may have mentioned him once or twice already this year, but I don’t think I’ll stop mentioning him all season. The inevitable NFL Rookie of the Year is zipping the ball down the field and using his legs with uncanny poise. He’s one of the five most exciting players in the NFL right now (along with Megatron, Mike Vick, Run DMC and Adrian Peterson), and he’s turned the Panthers into the friskiest team in the NFL. A rookie quarterback hasn’t single-handedly formed a team’s identity with such immediacy since Peyton Manning. That’s something. The more he performs his trademark touchdown celebration, the more I begin to think he really is Superman.

It’s official: The San Francisco 49ers are a damn good football team. Their last victory came in a defensive battle against the Lions two weeks ago (The Lions have slid since then, but are still a good team nonetheless), and they now find themselves at 5-1 after their bye week. They’re basically locked in at the top of the NFC West for the rest of the season, and a home playoff game against the Lions is virtually inevitable (and is a tasty prospect). Jim Harbaugh has done an outstanding job in bringing in a new culture and disposition to a team with nearly the same exact players as last season. Moreover, the Niners follow the Championship Philosophy more extensively than any other team in the NFL. They’re currently sixth in total rushing yards and second in rushing yards allowed. Patrick Willis and Frank Gore are the anchors and undisputed leaders. For the first time in nearly a decade, the 49ers exude an admirable sense of direction.

It’s official: Hue Jackson is on the verge of having everything blow up in his face. Since Al Davis’ death, Hue’s mission has been to carry out Davis’ legacy. He never said he wanted to take Davis’ position and hasn’t been doing that, but he obviously wanted the culture of the franchise to remain intact. He’s done an amazing job of that and there’s no question that he’s a brilliant offensive mind. However, he does embrace the media a little too much, even for someone who’s a visible entity of the Oakland Raiders.
Once he dubbed the Carson Palmer deal “the greatest trade in the NFL,” things started to crumble a little bit. His bravado and candidness have been admirable since he was anointed the head coaching position, but now that he’s put all his stock into a season by pulling a guy out of retirement for a high price while undercutting Jason Campbell in the process, he’s on the verge of looking foolish. Jason Whitlock is already calling him “Hue-bris” Jackson, which is amusing if you know what “hubris” means. But it’s still too early for that type of classification. It hasn’t happened yet, but if the Raiders come off the bye with a healthy McFadden, yet Palmer picks up where he left off, Oakland could potentially lose three straight division games. If that happens, the exciting expectations this team laid the groundwork for in the first six games will vanish. Jackson says that when the Raiders lose it’s never the fault of the players; he always insists that the blame is on him. If the Raiders indeed free-fall the rest of the season, he’ll get his wish.

It’s official: The Chargers are still the Chargers. As long as Norv Turner is their head coach, they’ll continue to commit horrible turnovers at the absolute worst possible times and beat themselves in the fourth quarter. And I’ll continue to love watching Philip Rivers argue with Turner on the sidelines.

It’s official: We’ll forget the Steelers were ever a mess if they win the next two games. If they beat the Patriots and Ravens consecutively and reach a 7-2 record, will anybody remember how terrible they looked after the first four weeks? Not at all.

It’s official: Andrew Luck will either be a Dolphin or a Colt next season. The Rams have already invested in a franchise quarterback, Tim Tebow is going to get Denver enough wins to stay out of the bottom three, and Christian Ponder seemed competent in his first career start for the Vikings last week. I’m going with the Dolphins because of a daunting stretch to end the season. Has Tony Sparano been fired yet?

It’s official: Sports are really weird right now. Classic Terrell Owens montages and clips of Theo Epstein giving speeches like a newly appointed president? I guess it all came at a respectable time. Happy early Halloween, everybody! At least we have a mesmerizing World Series to keep us on track.

A Day in Sports We'd Rather Forget, Plus a Perplexing Trade

noreply@blogger.com (Clayton Terry) — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 18:35:00 +0000

In sports, there are usually things you need to remember. Every once in a while, there are moments you’d rather forget. A few of those moments (both major and minor) manifested on Sunday.

Following the compelling culmination in Detroit (featuring an astounding defensive war, a down-to-the wire finish and an entertaining feud between 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh and Lions head coach Jim Schwartz), the day slowly began to unravel.

It started with the devastating Jason Campbell injury. Campbell threw only nine passes before breaking his collarbone in Sunday’s Al Davis memorial game in Oakland, and now the Raiders are in the midst of mentally preparing themselves for an entire season without their starting quarterback. Campbell is not an All-World quarterback by any means, but as head coach Hue Jackson alluded to in the post-game press conference, his leadership will be greatly missed and the connections he’s built with multiple receivers on the squad cannot be understated. News did come out last night that Campbell is hopeful for a return in six weeks, although initial reports revealed he would be out for the entire season. This seems unlikely, bearing in mind that the injured clavicle is on his right (throwing) side, but none of that seems to matter considering the news that broke this morning.

Carson Palmer has reportedly been dealt to the Raiders for a first-round pick in 2012 and a conditional first-round pick in 2013. Obviously, this is a bold move and an ultimately huge price for a 31 year-old quarterback who has been semi-retired this season. Moreover, he hasn’t been good since 2006, and hasn’t shown signs of decent quarterback play since 2009. Two first-round picks is an insane price for this type of player.

Hue Jackson does attain a long relationship with Palmer, serving as his wide receivers coach in Cincinnati and aided in recruiting Palmer to USC. Jackson has been saying all year that he doesn’t plan to develop for the future with this Raiders team; he wants to win now. So the trade makes sense… if Palmer turns out to be any good. He’s a definite upgrade over second-string quarterback Kyle Boller, but Oakland is now banking on him to be the new franchise quarterback considering the price paid. Unless Palmer stinks up the Coliseum in the half-season he’ll serve this year, Jason Campbell is inevitably out and his expired contract won’t be picked up. Palmer was acquired for too many assets to just be let go or for Campbell to be re-signed next season. Campbell has been implicitly undercut and it’s completely unfair.

Jackson is going to be a victim of his impatience if Palmer doesn’t work out, and the odds say this won’t work out. The old-fashioned Oakland Raiders reclamation project is a factor here, and the locker room is probably a little relieved now that there will be some experience under center, but it’s uncertain if it will even come close to panning out. The optimism: Palmer will be an experienced supplement to a good, young team, will have the best running back he’s ever had (McFadden) behind him, the fastest receivers he’s ever had and probably the best system he's ever experienced. The pessimism: one of my best friends (and the only Bengals fan I know) sarcastically wished me luck after the trade broke headlines. Not a good sign.

From Campbell’s injury on out, Sunday’s NFL afternoon games just got plain weird. The New England Patriots dished out an exceedingly atypical performance, headlined by four turnovers and Tom Brady’s two interceptions. The Cowboys didn’t play particularly well either and struggled to adequately capitalize on turnovers. The end result was a 20-16 Patriots win that didn’t seem completely right.

To illuminate how weird of a performance it was for New England: The Patriots failed to score 30 points or more for the first time in 13 straight games; only threw for 6.6 yards per pass; lost the turnover and time of possession battles although it felt like they were trying to solidify a rushing attack all game and never threw deep; scored with 7:34 remaining in the third quarter and didn’t score again until 22 seconds left in the game. It was a game both the Patriots and Cowboys would like to forget, considering Dallas had every chance in the world to win it. It just so happened that that last New England score with 22 seconds left was the conclusion to a masterful final drive by Tom Brady. And, in the end, that’s all they really needed.

It got weird again in Tampa Bay, when it seemed as though one of two things became apparent: Either the Buccaneers know how to make opponents play bad when they come to Tampa, or New Orleans was just in flux once head coach Sean Payton went down with an injury on the sidelines. His torn meniscus and broken tibia weren’t enough to keep him off the sidelines for at least a while, but he eventually left the game. Drew Brees and Payton have an untouchable quarterback-coach connection that very few teams in the NFL attain. Was the loss of that duo the reason Brees threw three interceptions? Was it the reason he tarnished a possible fourth-quarter win with an interception in the endzone, which did the reverse and sealed a win for the Bucs? Or are the Bucs just a better team than we think despite their embarrassing shellacking to the 49ers in week five? Whatever the answer may be, it was a weird game. It would’ve capped off the weird day if it wasn’t for the prime time match-up between the Vikings and Bears, which I slept through. Who schedules these night games again?

But the day wouldn’t be one we would like to forget if it was just plain weird and nothing else. Although we would like to forget Sunday’s sporting events for many reasons, the tragic events that happened at Las Vegas Motor Speedway will never be forgotten. What transpired was one of the most horrific crashes in the history of IndyCar racing, and Dan Wheldon was sadly the primary victim of the 15-car incident. Wheldon died in the wreck due to significant head injuries that he was unable to recover from. The entire racing world seemed to stop once the news broke, and virtually every driver was saddened and humbled by the moment. IndyCar ended the race and ensued a five-lap salute in his honor.

The biggest fear in racing happened on Sunday, and it happened in a ghastly manner. Whether IndyCar will continue to run on ovals is up in the air, but as five-time Sprint Cup Series champion Jimmie Johnson alluded to yesterday, there’s just no need to. Racing in general is already in a tough spot, and recognizing the perils of such an exhilarating sport is another step towards getting out of that rut. As Sunday’s events depicted, racing’s tragedies are always right around the corner.

Sometimes it’s best not to forget things.

The New Frontier of the UFC: The Flyweight Division

noreply@blogger.com (Clayton Terry) — Mon, 17 Oct 2011 17:45:00 +0000

By Aaron Sudario
Special Contributor to The Fan Experience

When you think about the UFC, certain names come to mind such as Jon Jones, Georges St. Pierre and Brock Lesnar. All of these MMA superstars have one thing in common: they fight at the higher weight classes. All the heavier weight classes have received more exposure because they have been around for many years. For a while the only big fights that were available to the MMA audience ranged from 155 pounds to 265 pounds. This obviously left many of the lighter weight classes out of the spotlight for a long time.

Nevertheless, Dana White gave some shocking news last year, stating that the UFC was swallowing its sister promotion, the WEC (World Extreme Cage Fighting), and accumulating its Featherweight (145-pound) and Bantamweight (135-pound) rosters. Since the exodus of the lighter-weight fighters from the WEC, the presence of those fighters have been very much known. Many superstars emerged from the Bantamweight and Featherweight classes such as Urijah Faber, Dominick Cruz, Jose Aldo and Mark Hominick. These and many other fighters in these weight classes have shown how much speed and stamina these guys have, which makes for very exciting and fast-paced fights.

If the exciting fights were not enough exposure, how about a reality TV series to set things off too? Season 14 of The Ultimate Fighter features featherweights and bantamweights for the first time in the show's history, and Dana White himself agrees that it's one of its most exiting seasons to date. Now that the little guys are getting the exposure and have established weight classes, what’s next? Well, Dana White had the answer a couple weeks ago, shocking the world once again by saying that 125-pound Flyweights will be added to the organization in 2012. This is very exciting news because there are many flyweight fighters that are eager to jump into the octagon, such as Yasuhiro Urushitani (19 - 4 – 6), who is currently number one in the flyweight division and fights in Shooto, a promotion in Japan. Not only will we see some new faces, but some Bantamweights will be going south in weight to compete in the flyweight division as well. John Dodson, Joseph Benavidez, and Demetrious Johnson are some fighters expected to make the drop to 125 pounds, showing there will be some top talent in the division. There hasn’t been any news on how the new weight class is going to crown a champion, but I’m sure Dana White has something up his sleeve. I'm very excited to see how the Flyweight Division pans out and I’m certain there will be fireworks when they hit the octagon!

Aaron is a student at CSU Sacramento and MMA enthusiast who plans to start his own MMA blog. Check out his Twitter page for MMA banter and random thoughts from a college student.

A Day in Oakland Raiders History: The Tribute Game

noreply@blogger.com (Clayton Terry) — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 17:41:00 +0000

My reaction to the news of Al Davis’ death on Saturday wasn’t the reaction I always expected it to be. As an Oakland Raiders fan born in the 1990s, not much of what I saw from Davis was what you would call “admirable.” There have been some memorable teams and one Super Bowl appearance, but virtually everything about the Raiders in the last decade has been awful and embarrassing. Al Davis wasn’t exactly a popular figure within the Raider Nation amid the humiliation. Although his rich history with the franchise and the NFL was known, the fact that he was the one making each and every decision – everything from drafting players, signing players, assigning and firing head coaches, and doing it all from an ominously powerful position – during these putrid times made it easy to find someone to blame. There was actually a point in time when Raiders fans (sometimes jokingly and sometimes in moments of vehemence) were anticipating the man’s death as much as the release of JaMarcus Russell.

When I saw the news of Al Davis’ death, I actually couldn’t believe it. How could this man of ominous power die? He was such an inherent entity of the Raiders that it went unnoticed until his death that he was the Raiders. For a fan my age that has only read about and watched highlights and DVDs on Raiders history, it took a while for it to sink in. And it wasn’t until the day after his death that I realized it would sink in for the Oakland Raiders as well.

It started during the waning moments of the first half of Sunday's game. The Raiders were doing absolutely nothing offensively until then, gaining a total of 11 yards on eight possessions. Jason Campbell threw one head-scratching interception, which directly led to a Houston touchdown on the very next play. Things were looking grim, and momentum seemed to be solidified as it always does in these situations for the Raiders. Sebastian Janikowski (an Al Davis first-rounder) was the only player keeping Oakland in striking distance with his two field goals of more than 50 yards, and Shane Lechler (another Al Davis pick) was giving the defense nice field position to work with. The field position battle was the only thing the Raiders could count on. Then, with 1:18 remaining in the half, Campbell zipped a pass on second and two to Darrius Heyward-Bey, who was sitting at the end of his curl route on the left side of the field. DHB caught the pass, turned to his left while Jason Allen dove at his ankles, muscled his way out of Allen’s grasp and burst down the sideline for a 34-yard touchdown.
Heyward-Bey was fired up all game, vehemently beating his hands over his helmet and trash-talking opposing defenders multiple times throughout the first half. He ran crisp routes, caught the ball seven of the twelve times he was targeted (“Heyward-Bey is catching the ball!” was a popular text on Sunday), and he was a legitimate game-changer. Al Davis’ decision to take him with the seventh overall pick in the 2009 draft was one of the most criticized of his Oakland tenure. Heyward-Bey set out to prove on Sunday that Davis was right in drafting him with that pick.

The defense played stellar from that point on, giving up nothing close to what was allowed on the first Texans drive or the long touchdown pass subsequent Campbell’s interception. Arian Foster was having a tough time gaining significant yardage on the ground, and the Texans ultimately scored only six points in the entire second half. The Raiders executed a dazzlingly successful fake punt at the beginning of the fourth quarter, which aided in padding the Oakland lead at 25-17. However, drama ensued with less than three minutes left in the game, and the emotional roller coaster began.

Houston had no timeouts, and instead of electing to run the ball on second-and-nine with 2:56 remaining, the Raiders went pass as Jason Campbell dropped back and slung a deep ball down the right side of the field intended for Denarius Moore. The ball hit the turf incomplete and stopped the clock. Head coach Hue Jackson looked furious after the play, entailing that Campbell chose to audible out of a run play and attempt to drive a dagger into the Texans. It didn’t work out, but most of all, it gave the Texans 1:50 to work with down only five, 25-20.

A 26-yard pass to Kevin Walter got Houston's drive going, and a roughing-the-passer call (which was impossible for defensive captain Richard Seymour to avoid), catapulted the Texans to Oakland’s 26-yard line. Matt Schaub fumbled the snap on the next play, and two plays later Houston faced third and 23. They would need a near miracle to convert, but they did. And every Raiders fan was thinking: “Oh, no. Here we go again.”

Schaub’s pass hung in the air for what felt like an eternity, and fell into the arms of tight end Joel Dreessen. The Texans were now at the 5-yard line with seven seconds left after the ensuing spike, and tension was at an all-time high. If you’ve ever been in a bad car accident when it was totally your fault, then you know what it feels like when Raiders fans get epically let down. It’s happened constantly in the last eight years, and usually always happens due to secondary breakdowns. In years past, the defense would inevitably give up a touchdown on the last play. The momentum would just be too much in favor of the opposition. Bad Raiders teams deflate at horrific times.

But when the pocket broke down on the Texans’ final play and Matt Schaub rolled to his left, something different happened this time. Safety Tyvon Branch, who was firmly settled in the endzone on an island, bolted towards Schaub when it appeared as though the Texans quarterback had ample room to run the ball in for the score. When Branch cut that option off, it forced Schaub to throw an errant lob into the hands of Raiders’ defensive back Michael Huff (another Al Davis first-rounder), who corralled the ball for the game-sealing interception. The Raiders won. The Raiders won the kind of game they never seem to win.
The players celebrated in sheer jubilation. Hue Jackson fell to a knee on the field as tears fell from his eyes. Al Davis’ son Mark wept as he looked down from the luxury box. Raiders fans everywhere rejoiced. The players played their hearts out all game for Al Davis and Oakland Raider lore, and it manifested in this game’s culmination. It wasn't anywhere near perfect, but it was a win.

The Raiders franchise is comprised of an endless history and a collection of illustrious games, such as the infamous “Heidi” game, the “Sea of Hands” game, “Ghost to the Post,” “The Holy Roller,” countless rivalry games within the AFC West, memorable rivalry games against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the seventies, one AFL title and three Super Bowl titles. History lies even in games in which the Raiders got the short end of the stick, such as “The Immaculate Reception” and the “Tuck Rule” game.

Al Davis was the driving force behind every piece of Oakland Raiders history, something no one else can match in terms of impact on a sports franchise. He's the one who anointed John Madden as head coach in 1969, the youngest in the league at the age of 32. He's the one who hired Art Shell in 1990, the first African American head coach in NFL history. He's the one who constructed the Raider Way and Raider Image in the 60s and 70s, constructing teams of misfits from a plethora of backgrounds who ultimately just loved the game of football and loved to win. He's the one who strove to build a unique organization with historical context similar to the New York Yankees. He's the one who constituted the eventually traditional Raiders approach: "Whether we score or not, we are not playing for 10 yards; we're playing for the ballgame." He died carrying those philosophies; he died as the owner of the Oakland Raiders. He's the one who set the foundation and built nearly every single piece of one of the most historic franchises in the history of sports.

Sunday’s game found a place in that history as “The Tribute Game.” It will now be included in the aforementioned class of memorable Raiders games, but will not be the last game of the Al Davis Era. This is still his team – a team built in his image – and the Raiders are totally cognizant of it.

The “Badasses” of the seventies were the first renowned Oakland Raiders squad – the first to notoriously carry the aura of the Silver & Black. The 2011 Raiders are not comparable to the Badasses, but their attributes, style they impose, and character of their head coach all resemble a true Raiders team. The Raiders haven’t portrayed the emotion, resilience, and ability to close out a game the way they did on Sunday in a long time.

Once the players headed back to the locker room, more poignant moments transpired. Safety Mike Mitchell depicted his awareness of a true Raider identity when he ran down the tunnel, overwhelmed with emotion as he shouted, “AHHHHH!!!! JUST WIN BABY!!!” Hue Jackson gave a captivating speech to his team in the locker room, one that every Raiders fan would admit to getting choked up to every time he or she sees it. The players believe in their coach, team, franchise and organization. They also believe that someone is now watching over them, giving them some help along the way.

But most of all, the Raiders have now gained belief in the Raider Way. It's a culture and approach that can only be described in three simple, yet resonating words:

Just win, baby.

The Good, Great and Ugly from the NFL's First Quarter (Part 2)

noreply@blogger.com (Clayton Terry) — Fri, 07 Oct 2011 22:00:00 +0000

This is Part 2 of the NFL's Good, Great and Ugly First Quarter. If you haven't read Part 1, click here.

We had to get ugly at some point. We’ll hold off on the Eagles for a bit and get to two of the most perplexing offensive line situations in the NFL.

The New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers were both in the AFC Championship game last year, but the perils their offensive fronts have created this season suggest that the chances of them returning to that game are slim. The Steelers had offensive line issues last year, but fortuitous scheduling allowed them to cover up those woes in the second half. Couple that with the fortune of not having to face the Patriots in the postseason (a horrible match-up for the Steelers last year), and the Steelers got away with a lot in 2010. Pittsburgh will have the luxury of enjoying those same types of benefits this season, considering the six remaining games on the schedule following its bye week, but the Steelers have still looked ugly nonetheless. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger got knocked around last Sunday against a Houston defense that isn’t exactly a group of marauders. He was hit a total of eight times and sacked five times. Rashard Mendenhall rushed for only 25 yards before leaving the game with an injury. Beyond that, the defense gave up 180 yards rushing to the Texans and rank 22nd in total rushing defense. Regardless of championship pedigree, the Steelers are a mess right now.

As for the Jets, their offensive line issues go way beyond the Nick Mangold injury cop-out. Mark Sanchez was hit nine times in last Monday night’s game against the Ravens and was sacked twice. Sanchez coughed up the ball three times, two of which resulted in direct touchdowns by the Ravens defense along with an interception return to the house. Baltimore played awfully and they still rolled the Jets, 34-17. The Jets only scored three points offensively. The other 14 came from the defense and special teams. Furthermore, this came a week after the Raiders ran amok on their defense. The passing game looked solid in that affair, but it seems as though the Oakland secondary had something to do with that, because the Jets’ passing scheme is horribly painful to watch. The Jets have some real issues that go beyond awaiting the return of an All-Pro center and backing up another Super Bowl prediction.

If you want ugly, look no farther than the teams at the bottom of the NFC East. After trampling the poor Rams, the Eagles lost the weirdest game of the season to the Falcons on Sunday night in week two, then lost to the Giants in week three and fell apart against the 49ers last Sunday. Michael Vick is already in sporadically injured mode, and Andy Reid’s play calling has been disturbing (which isn’t out of the ordinary, but still). LeSean McCoy has proven that he is one of the best offensive talents in the NFL, yet he carried the ball a mere nine times against the 49ers for 18 yards. No wonder the Eagles struggled so much in opposing territory. The Eagles attempted five field goals (and made only three), and finished the game two-for-seven in the red zone. A 23-3 lead against any NFC West team should be a lock for a team as talented as the Eagles, but they let the gritty Niners stick around and take the game that was handed to them. To make things worse, there are only two teams in the NFL worse at stopping the run than the Eagles.

Say goodbye to the “Dream Team,” because the hype affected the Eagles so much that they can’t stop the run, run the ball when they need to, protect Michael Vick or tell Vick when to cool down when he’s running around aimlessly, or run an offense comprised of anything consistent besides the “home run play.” Philadelphia is the ugliest team in the NFL after one quarter of the season. No team with this much talent should be 1-3. Because of this, they’re changing the dynamic of the Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection curse. It can’t be the Lions because they’re 4-0. They’ve already dodged their bullet. It doesn’t seem like it should be the Eagles because they’re not a sleeper team, but they unquestionably carried more hype than any other team in the NFL before the season and it became their curse. The expectations were enormously high; they were never going to reach them by any stretch. The NFL hype curse that has been cast over the league since 2005 has proven to have nothing to do with a “sleeper.” The proven constant is the inordinately high expectations, which the Lions were not burdened with. The yearly phenomenon is now known as the “Inordinate Expectations Curse.” Thanks to the Eagles for clearing that up for us. At least they're not as ugly as this next player…

Tony Romo finds ways to keep fans on their toes. He does as best as he can to give the impression that his potential as a Super Bowl winning quarterback is right around the corner. But it’s not. It’s not hard to discern where Tony Romo’s career is going. In fact, his career is what it is at this point. He’s been in the NFL for nine years. He’s 31 years old. Take his career at face value and you can label Romo as a classic choke artist with nice fantasy numbers. If you’ve had any questions about Romo’s career, well, there you go. A costly fumble at the goal line and terrible interception capped off Dallas’ week one loss to the Jets – a game in which the Cowboys appeared to be unstoppable through the air. Romo was criticized, then praised over the next two weeks for playing with cracked ribs and inching out wins over the 49ers in overtime (NFC West team) and the Redskins (about as ugly as a game can get without being Jets vs. Ravens). Then last week’s collapse to the Lions happened, and that was all we needed to see.

The Cowboys had a 27-3 lead and Romo was dismantling the Detroit secondary. Then, two interception return touchdowns later, it was 27-10. Romo felt it was necessary to throw his third interception, his worst and most inexplicable of the game, with 4:22 remaining in the fourth quarter to help set up Megatron’s last ridiculous catch. The Lions won 34-30, and Romo’s second half performance was the ultimate difference in the game. Unsurprisingly, his supporters felt the need to take some weight off his shoulders and look at the secondary issues. There are definite secondary issues in Dallas, but those problems are bound to manifest when the quarterback keeps putting his defense back on the field. Romo is what he is. It’s not a dig; it’s fact. Maybe he’ll do something spectacular one day, like improve on his 1-3 playoff record or take the Cowboys to the NFC Championship game for his first time. But it's doubtful.
On another note, did you know that LeBron James is a Cowboys fan? You probably did if you watch ESPN. But how ironic is it that LeBron and Romo share crazy inter-sport parallels? Both are at the core of their respective sports' hype, both obtain undeniable talent, and both find ways leave nothing to show for that talent. LeBron is also a Yankees fan, and some guy named A-Rod just struck out to end the Yankees’ season yesterday. I guess that’s another angle for another day. Enjoy the last three quarters of the NFL season, and let the ugliness mesmerize you as much as the greatness.

The Good, Great and Ugly from the NFL's First Quarter (Part 1)

noreply@blogger.com (Clayton Terry) — Fri, 07 Oct 2011 17:52:00 +0000

Remember when we were watching NFL players walking around in suits, wearing serious faces as negotiators every time we flipped the channel to ESPN? Now the regular season is already 25 percent through. One excruciatingly long off-season has led to what can already be considered an exciting and drama-filled regular season in just four short weeks. There have been some good moments, some great moments, and some undoubtedly ugly moments. It’s been everything a fan could ask for following such grim off-season outlooks filled with lockout subject matter. The times when dreary prospects of losing the season entirely floated through our minds have virtually been forgotten. It’s as if there was never anything to worry about.

The good can’t be mentioned without first mentioning Josh Freeman. His stats might not jump out at you (three touchdowns and four interceptions on the season with a mediocre 81.1 passer rating), but other than the NFL’s elite, there are not many quarterbacks with the leadership qualities Freeman obtains. He nearly led his Buccaneers to a comeback victory over the Detroit Lions in week one despite a 27-13 deficit with less than four minutes remaining, then concocted the comeback a week later after the Bucs trailed the Vikings at halftime 17-0. When he iced a victory over Atlanta in week three by forcing the Falcons to jump offside and achieve the necessary final first down, he finally turned some heads. Josh Freeman is a bright, burly, big-armed quarterback who’s shown several signs of brilliance at just 23 years of age. A season that was projected to be so-so due to Tampa Bay’s lack of activity in free agency is turning out to be fruitful in its early stages. Josh Freeman is the catalyst, and a significant drop-off from last season’s 10-6 record doesn’t appear likely with him under center.

On the other side of the country, the Bay Area is showing flashes of prevalence in the first four weeks. San Francisco is a surprising 3-1, and has made the most noise within its defensive front. The 49ers currently rank fourth in rushing defense after the first quarter of the season, and just completed an impressive comeback victory (depending on which perspective you’d like to take) over the Philadelphia Eagles last week. Call it a massive Eagles collapse if you’d like, but a bad team still rolls over when faced with a 23-3 third quarter deficit. The 49ers are certainly not bad. Moreover, Alex Smith played good, which doesn’t happen very often. The 49ers have grit – which is just enough in the putrid NFC West.

In the East Bay, the Silver & Black are re-awakening Raider Nation and stirring the pot with some scintillating football.
It started with Oakland’s first 1-0 start since 2002 in which Darren McFadden began his 2011 “Best Running Back in the NFL” campaign, and hasn’t disappointed since. Run DMC is proving to be the complete package as a runner, blazing past defenders with his straight-ahead speed, running over defenders with power, catching and running with precise vision on beautiful screen plays, and even lines up at wide receiver sparingly and runs surprisingly crisp routes. He’s the core of every trick play, which head coach Hue Jackson has a knack for calling at pristine moments. Last year, I typed a sentence about McFadden in this column, saying he would be the best back in the NFL in two years, but I took it out thinking people would jump all over me for it. I regret doing that; he could already be there. He’s the heart of an Oakland offense with frightening speed at skill positions (Jacoby Ford, Darrius Heyward-Bey and the rising Denarius Moore), and he’s the prototypical complement to Jason Campbell. Campbell was virtually mistake-free until last Sunday’s loss to the Patriots, but the Raiders still showed they could at least hang in there with one of the best teams in the league and not display total frailty. Exciting play doesn’t always culminate in a successful season, but the confidence the Raiders have carried over from last season’s sweep of the AFC West and the swagger that is continuing to build with Hue Jackson at the helm is changing the dynamic of the franchise. Although a 2-2 start would have been a reasonable prediction around schedule-release time, nobody would have thought the Raiders would do so in this fashion.

Although the Buccaneers, Raiders and Niners have displayed commendable assets, some extraordinary attributes have been portrayed in the first four weeks of the NFL season; and there’s no better place to start than Cam Newton.
I know he was already mentioned in the Week 1 Retrospective, but he’s worth mentioning again. Let’s start with the boring stuff first – stats. Newton has thrown for 1,386 yards with five touchdowns and five interceptions in his first four games as an NFL quarterback with an 84.5 passer rating. Most importantly, his 60 percent completion percentage is an above satisfactory mark for a rookie quarterback. He’s already the first rookie to throw for more than 400 yards in two games. Moreover, Newton has been given the offensive reins. Despite running back DeAngelo Williams’ hefty contract extension this past off-season, first-year head coach Ron Rivera has introduced a pass-heavy offensive scheme (which has been outlined pretty well here). Cam Newton has already attempted 163 passes and is on pace to attempt a whopping 615 throws this season, which would break Sam Bradford’s rookie record of 590. He’s also on pace to complete 388 throws this season, which would also be a rookie record. Nobody in the world would’ve projected these numbers by Cam “THE MAN” Newton before the season. (Yes, that is his nickname. Start catching on. Or just do what Deion Sanders does and blurt “CAAAMM!” every time he zings a pass or breaks the pocket. That one’s fun too.) But we could’ve predicted his attitude, which we talked about subsequent his week one performance. He’s on a mission to improve every week and makes his teammates better in the process. Wide receiver Steve Smith has been utterly reinvigorated (530 receiving yards through four games and averaging 22 yards per catch) and the Carolina Panthers are an extremely fun team to watch. Of the three premier early games last Sunday (Detrot/Dallas, San Fran/Philly, Pittsburgh/Houston), none caught my eye like Cam Newton and the Panthers versus Chicago. That’s how much of a leadership impact Cam Newton has had as the number-one overall pick, and it doesn’t look like he’s going to stop wowing us. It’s the intangibles.

Obviously, you can’t mention precocious greatness without mentioning the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. Precocious for the Lions in the sense that, well, it’s the first time they’ve jumped out to a 4-0 start; and precocious for the Packers and their 4-0 start because Aaron Rodgers has now become the slinging savant that nobody thought he would ever get the chance to become.

Detroit’s unequivocally endearing greatness has been highlighted by its fearlessness. Regardless of the Lions’ talent, teams have to play a solid and complete four quarters against them every game. The defense may be suspect (20th in rushing defense and 29th in passing defense), but the offense is relentless and capable of capitalizing on even the slightest of breakdowns. The Vikings and Tony Romo have already exemplified that for us. They held off the patented Josh Freeman comeback in week one as well, so a mentality of experience is already building after four weeks.

Oh, and Calvin Johnson has been pretty good too. Eight of his 24 catches this season have been touchdowns. If you’re good at math, that’s one third of his catches. So every third time Calvin Johnson catches a pass, it’s of the touchdown variety – which is absurd. He’s become the preeminent red zone receiver, as he displayed with his touchdown catch in which he was draped with triple coverage against the Cowboys last Sunday. The fade route inside the 10 yard-line became an overused tactic in the NFL for a while, but “Megatron” is a can’t-miss in every red zone passing situation. If he’s not the best receiver in the NFL yet, he’s getting there. And how great of a nickname is “Megatron”? Doesn’t it fit him seamlessly? He literally looks unstoppable and nonhuman right now. Fans can’t get enough of him, and neither can Matthew Stafford.

As for the 4-0 Packers, Aaron Rodgers is the only player of discussion right now. We brought him up in the Week 1 Retrospective as well, but isn’t he making a case for top quarterback in the league right now? The way he plays the quarterback position – the pinpoint accuracy, gracious mobility and leadership bravado – is so much to marvel over. He’s so cool-headed that it’s immensely admirable. He never seems to get rattled, spreads the ball amongst a multitude of receivers, and finds ways to improvise on certain plays but make them appear beautiful at the same time. And are we going to see this play literally every game? Here it is again against the Broncos last Sunday. I literally shouted "It's that play again!" as it was happening. It’s become the patented Aaron Rodgers play-action fake bomb.

Granted, Tom Brady has been playing out of his mind this year, but I’d rather watch Aaron Rodgers play quarterback any day of the week. His savant-like play en route to Green Bay’s 4-0 start makes for some nice beginnings for a possible title defense.

The Bills have been great and are playing the part of Cinderella thus far, but last Sunday’s Bengals match-up was their first true test of focus. It’s tough to say that they failed dramatically, considering Cincinatti’s quietly stout defense (the Bengals have only allowed 18.5 points per game, which is currently sixth in the league; they are also third in total pass defense and seventh in total rush defense), but they still squandered a 17-3 halftime lead. Maybe things are getting back to normal again. It goes without question that Ryan Fitzpatrick is a reputable NFL quarterback, and he deserves a nice contract extension after this season. He and Stevie Johnson have a nice connection and Fred Jackson flanks them in a nice three-headed offensive attack. The Bills will have no problem putting up points this season and will continue to be an incendiary bunch, but a postseason aura hasn’t been developed. A win at home against the Eagles this Sunday would be a nice step in that development, considering Philadelphia’s current sense of urgency. Speaking of Philadelphia…

To read Part 2 of this column, featuring the "Ugly" from the NFL's first quarter, click here.

NFL Week 4 Preview: Four Doozies, Four Duds (and some extras)

noreply@blogger.com (Clayton Terry) — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 18:39:00 +0000

Remember when we said week one of the NFL season would be a nice barometer for the 2011-12 season? It seems a little obvious that it would be, but it really was. The Packers trampled the Saints defense, and now we realize that any team with a legitimate passing attack will do the same this year. Steven Jackson got hurt during his first big run of the season and the Rams’ season has been dreadful ever since. The Lions showed signs of true promise in week one, then the Buccaneers nearly pulled off the comeback behind Josh Freeman; followed by the Lions holding Freeman off and looking fantastic ever since. The Bucs still have a knack for comebacks (week two versus Minnesota) and can close games out behind a commendable quarterback (last week against Atlanta). The Ravens annihilated the Steelers in week one, let off the gas in week two and lost to Tennessee, then woke up and crushed a bad Rams team. The Steelers bounced back in week two and did what they were supposed to do against Seattle, then almost got blindsided by the Manning-less Colts last Sunday night. We’ve known what these two teams are all about in terms of talent and personnel these last few years, but it’s all about mentality in the AFC North at this point. The Cowboys were proving something until the fourth quarter in week one against the Jets, and have struggled to exude an outstanding offense ever since the Tony Romo choke-job. They squeaked out less-than-stellar victories over the 49ers and Redskins – two 2-1 teams that aren’t exactly for real at the moment. The Jets still attain characteristics of being able to hang around and steal some games, but a perpetually potent offense seems to be too much for the Jets to ultimately handle. Of the teams we covered in our season preview, a lot manifested in just three weeks.

Week four should paint an even clearer picture. As football fans (most notably: football fans that gamble), we try as best as we can to gain a grasp of how good teams are and what identities they obtain. The quarter mark is usually a premier time to start making assumptions. After all, there’s a big difference between 2-2 and 1-3, and even 4-0 and 3-1 for that matter. Moreover, teams have faced at least one formidable team by the quarter mark in which they have been tested to some degree. Let’s dive into a week four preview including the Four Doozies (games to watch) and Four Duds (games we probably won’t pay attention to, but might still be close games).

Four Doozies

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys

Every Sportscenter anchor has been asking every writer and analyst the same question all week: "Are the Lions and Bills for real?"

So far, the Lions look for real. Very much so. They staved of the Bucs in week one (which isn’t easy to do), did what good teams are supposed to do and blew out a horrendous Kansas City Chiefs team, and seized opportunity last week as the Vikings fell apart in the second half once again.

It wasn’t just that they took advantage of Minnesota’s inexplicable second half woes; it was how they did it. Quarterback Matthew Stafford threw two touchdown passes to Calvin Johnson, including one “go up and get it!” throw to start the third quarter. The Lions aren’t afraid to use their best players to their greatest extent, and capped off that notion with a gorgeous deep ball to Johnson to set up the game-winning field goal in overtime. Statistically, the Lions are a daunting passing team (fourth in total passing yards, tied for second in passing touchdowns), and are even more lethal to watch. Calvin Johnson is on pace to score 24 touchdowns this season (24!?!?!), Javhid Best is a speedster and the defense is relentless even though statistics may not say so. They’re a fearless team that doesn’t take games off (unlike the Steelers or Ravens), which is ostensibly going to be enough to break the Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection curse that has been cast over the NFL since 2005. A 4-0 start breaks it immediately.
But Dallas is going to be Detroit’s biggest test thus far. The Cowboys may not look impressive so far this year, but the talent is there and Tony Romo is actually galvanizing the Cowboys. Did you see what Dez Bryant said after Monday night’s game? Romo playing through his rib injury is sparking belief in his teammates, which has to mean something. I don’t know how I’d feel if one of the most inconsistent talents in the NFL was my leader, but the Cowboys seem to feel differently. Plus, the Detroit secondary is the least trustworthy facet of the Lions’ squad. Romo could have himself a field day. Then choke another game away the following week.

The pick: COWBOYS (-1) over Lions

Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans

The Steelers are the Steelers. They still have one of the most sterling defenses in the NFL, the second-most improvisational quarterback in football, and a revolving door of sub-par offensive linemen with injury issues. On the other hand, the Texans are still the Texans. They can still put up a ton of points and give up a ton of passing yards in the process. So far, the Steelers are first in the NFL in opposing passing yards, but the Texans are playing at home and are fifth in the NFL in rushing without Arian Foster in the lineup (He's returning this week). However, the Texans don’t obtain much of a home-field advantage (4-4 last year), and the Steelers should have their heads on straight for this one. In a game like this, take the points. This is probably the most exciting game on the 1:00 P.M. ET slate, and undoubtedly the toughest to predict.

The pick: Steelers (+4) over TEXANS

New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders

Talk about a doozy! This game may finish with a combined score of 100! Both of these teams have real issues in the secondary, and both attain one perennial offensive asset (Tom Brady and the passing game for New England, Darren McFadden and the running game for Oakland). Ultimately, this game is going to come down to which offensive attack controls the tempo most effectively, and which team achieves better play calling. Hue Jackson has been incredibly admirable as an offensive play caller for the Raiders, and has pulled out fabulous trick plays in pristine momentum-swinging moments. All in all, the Raiders are the most exciting team in the NFL right now (Really!? The Raiders???). Darren McFadden is evolving into the best runningback in the NFL with his old-school running style (Oakland fans can’t get enough of him right now. We salivate every time he touches the ball. It feels like there’s nothing he can’t do out of the backfield), the speed at wide receiver is a lot to handle for any defense (with Jacoby Ford and Louis Murphy still injured) and the defensive line depth makes for a ruthless front four. Furthermore, the home field advantage in this game is going to be immense. Every Raider fan in Northern California has been fully anticipating this game since the final seconds counted down in last week’s Jets game. The “Tuck Rule” is still unforgotten in Raider Nation. A raucous home crowd behind both the defense and a quietly brilliant Jason Campbell gives the Raiders more than a shooter’s chance in this imminent shootout.
The pick: RAIDERS (+4) over Patriots

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens

The Jets and Ravens have been somewhat confounding football teams so far. The Jets are a renowned run-the-ball/stuff-the-run team, yet they’re 25th and 31st in those categories, respectively. The Ravens seem to be the better team right now – their confounding moment was when they got caught sleeping in week two. If the Jets are truly the mentally tough, playoff-caliber team Rex Ryan makes them out to be, they will win this game. It would be detrimental if they didn’t, because the upcoming schedule isn’t so auspicious. After this Sunday night’s game, the Jets get the Patriots in New England, the Dolphins and Chargers at home, enjoy their bye week, then travel to Buffalo and come back home to the Patriots. A 2-2 record going into that stretch would be a grueling feat, so the J-E-T-S and the points seem like a safe pick. The Ravens are a very good team, but just like the Cowboys, it’s tough to trust their quarterback.

The pick: Jets (+3.5) over RAVENS

Four Duds

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns

The best part about these teams is they have some friskiness to them, especially at quarterback. That doesn’t mean that their quarterbacks are any good (because they aren’t), but they’re frisky enough to make things happen late in games. It’s an interesting comparison considering Colt McCoy’s young career and Matt Hasselbeck’s aging one, but they both headline a couple of bottom-tier annoyances. The Titans appear to be the better team, but Kenny Britt’s season-ending MCL/ACL tear may hinder the Titans enough to keep them out of contention this season. The Browns win this friskiness battle. Time will tell who wins the war.

The pick: BROWNS (-1) over Titans

Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs

These teams have been so bad that I don’t feel like writing more than one sentence. But in case you didn’t already know, the Vikings have been outscored 67-6 in the second half this season, and the Chiefs have been outscored 109-27 through three weeks. It’s hard to pick the Chiefs in any game for the rest of the year; they have no talent left outside of Dwayne Bowe with the injuries they’ve suffered. At least the Vikings have something.

The pick: Vikings (-1.5) over CHIEFS

Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams

Why are the Rams so bad? It’s almost dumbfounding. This team literally has nothing going for them, while Redskins fans somehow have something to be hopeful about with Rex Grossman as their quarterback. This is the most perplexing dud of them all.

The Pick: Redskins (-1) over RAMS

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks

This is undoubtedly the worst game of the week. Ignore Atlanta’s strange game against the Eagles on Sunday night in week two and the Falcons are a very bland team. Matt Ryan has put up mediocre numbers, Michael Turner rushed for 20 yards on 11 carries last week against a Buccaneers team that still ranks 23rd in rush defense despite that output. They also got utterly destroyed by the Bears in week one. The Falcons aren’t trustworthy whatsoever, but they’re also playing against an ugly NFC West team with Tarvaris Jackson as its quarterback. The dud of all duds. We’re taking the home team with the points.
The pick: SEAHAWKS (+4) over Falcons

Extras

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears

The Bears find ways to keep games close with good teams while looking like an awful team all at the same time. Cam Newton got his win despite a marginal output, although it was in a Carolina monsoon. It’s going to be tough for me to bet against CAM THE MAN the rest of the year, especially since Ron Rivera has him chucking the ball all over the place this season. The 6-point spread is too big in this one.

The pick: Panthers (+6) over BEARS

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals

Are the Bills for real??? I’m not sure. But I do know this: Ryan Fitzpatrick and Stevie Johnson are for real, and that’s enough for them to at least go 8-8 this year. A road game against a bad team will test Buffalo’s focus after a gigantic win.

The pick: Bills (-3.5) over BENGALS

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles

If the 49ers win this game, it will be because they won it in the trenches. In other words, if the Eagles lose, it will mean they are a soft team that was constructed around a cast of skill-position players. Should the Eagles be this year’s Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection, even though they can’t technically be considered a sleeper? Maybe they’re shaping a new trend. We’ll find out this week.

The pick: EAGLES (-9) over 49ers

Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Josh Freeman’s first chance to shine in prime time. Although it’s against the Manning-less Colts, Indianapolis proved that its defensive line – still anchored by Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis at the ends – is a force to be reckoned with. But disregard everything I just said, because this is Josh Freeman’s coming out party.

The pick: BUCS (-10) over Colts

Additional picks: Saints (-7) over JAGS; Giants (-1) over CARDINALS; Dolphins (+7) over CHARGERS; PACKERS (-12.5) over Broncos

Week 1 Retrospective: Categorizing Quarterback Impact (Part 2)

noreply@blogger.com (Clayton Terry) — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 17:53:00 +0000

This is part 2 of the two-part Week 1 Retrospective. To read Part 1, click here. For you non-gamblers, the picks below are against the spread.

The Promise: Cam Newton

Cam Newton had a ton of caveats attached to him when he was drafted with the number-one overall pick by the Carolina Panthers in April. He played in a system that contained absolutely no translation to the NFL game. He ran the ball as much as he passed. When he did pass, he wasn’t entirely accurate. But there’s one thing Cam Newton always attained throughout his college career, and it was the sole reason the Auburn Tigers won the BCS National Championship last year:

Intangibles.

The believers in Cam Newton from day one knew this would be an essential asset right away. To use a comparison perspective as an example, Newton carries a similar confidence to Donovan McNabb. Nothing fazes him, pressure doesn’t get to him at all, and he actually likes being in the spotlight. If he weren’t selected with the number one overall pick, it probably would’ve felt strange to him. There’s no question he realizes that if the Panthers reach a .500 record or better, he’ll be the reason why. Players like him revel in those types of moments, no matter what skills they obtain. So when Newton bolted out the gate last week with a 422-yard, two-touchdown passing performance with an Auburn-influenced rushing touchdown at the goal line for good measure, he made us pay attention. It wasn’t just because it was one of the greatest rookie quarterback debuts in NFL history, and it wasn’t just because he made handful of extraordinary throws deep down the field; it was because he conveyed the intangibles that fixated us on a Carolina offense that was one of the worst ever last season. He transcended an offense that used to feature Jimmy Clausen getting mercifully sacked every other play. Intangibles are capable of adapting in a multitude of new ambiances. It was only one game, but it was enough for fans to realize Newton is a competitor. Which is enough to spark belief.

Week 2 outlook: Newton puts up a valiant effort but struggles against the defending Super Bowl champion Packers, bringing him back to rookie earth. There’s now way he’s THIS good yet. A couple of turnovers and maybe a pick-six highlight his performance.

Pick: Packers (-10) over PANTHERS

The Elite: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Mike Vick, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Tom Brady

NFL fans already know that this is the undisputed elite class of quarterbacks in the league (with Ben Roethlisberger in the conversation). But who impacted his team the most this week?

You could make a case that Mike Vick and Peyton Manning didn’t, because Vick only threw for 187 yards with a completion percentage of 44% and Manning didn’t even play. But how big of an impact does Manning have by not playing? Possibly larger than any other quarterback in the NFL being on the field? And what about Vick? Don’t you think his presence alone has something to do with LeSean McCoy averaging eight yards a carry against a commendable St. Louis defense last week? Despite the possibility of Vick becoming a one-hit-wonder for the Eagles, he’s still elite because the mere presence of him being on the field calls for it. And the mere absence of Peyton Manning makes the Indianapolis Colts 30 points worse on offense.
As for Philip Rivers and Drew Brees, the San Diego Chargers and New Orleans Saints have engrained identities because of the two quarterbacks. The Chargers seemed in trouble, down 17-7 to Minnesota at halftime in week 1 due to customary San Diego special teams miscues. But once the second half started, Rivers started slinging the ball downfield like he never missed a beat. The Chargers won 24-17 and made the Vikings look dreadful again because Rivers played so well in the second half. Brees seemed as though he never missed a beat from the get-go, putting up gaudy numbers in the process (419 passing yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions), and solidified the Saints as a contender this season despite the loss. The Packers weren’t losing to anyone on Thursday Night, and the Saints came pretty close to winning.

If Manning comes back from his injury as a shadow of himself, there will be two quarterbacks standing atop the mountain of quarterback prominence: Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Fitting that they both played in prime-time games in week 1, Rodgers and Brady dished out performances as if they were indirectly battling one another. Rodgers was 27-35 for 312 yards and 3 touchdowns and made throws that seemed literally untouchable for defenders (most notably: his trademark back-shoulder fade). He ate up the Saints defense the same way he ate up Atlanta and Pittsburgh in the playoffs and Super Bowl last season. He laughed at the fact that the media put so much merit into limited training camp hours because of the lockout, and then threw the football with ease to Greg Jennings and his Green Bay receivers like he was flinging it around in the park on a Saturday afternoon. With Peyton Manning injured, not one quarterback makes the quarterback position look easier than Aaron Rodgers with the same bravado.
Oh, and Tom Brady broke another record like he always does. Brady is the proven commodity of this cohort (as his three Super Bowl rings can attest), but Aaron Rodgers is nipping at his heels to take the top spot. The Green Bay Packer offense is already showing signs of efficiency that compare to Brady’s Patriots of 2007. Once vulnerability manifests, then the elite of the elite can be determined. For now, Aaron Rodgers has thrown himself into a legitimate top-quarterback debate in an era laden with prolific passing.

Week 2 outlook: Drew Brees doesn’t let up as the Saints squeeze by a Bears team that plays better than they really are at the beginning of the season, the Colts continue to struggle without Peyton Manning but at least look somewhat competitive against the Browns, Rivers and Brady duke it out against one another in a tight one as the Chargers try to forget their postseason history against the Patriots, and Mike Vick becomes the main attraction in a scintillating “Welcome Home Party” performance in Atlanta.

Picks: Bears (+6.5) over SAINTS; Browns (-2.5) over COLTS; Chargers (+7) over PATRIOTS; Eagles (-2.5) over FALCONS

Additional Picks: JETS (-9) over Jaguars; Buccaneers (+3) over VIKINGS; Texans (-3) over DOLPHINS; Bengals (+4) over BRONCOS

Week 1 Retrospective: Categorizing Quarterback Impact (Part 1)

noreply@blogger.com (Clayton Terry) — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 18:02:00 +0000

Week 1 of the most anticipated NFL season in recent memory is in the books, and it couldn’t have transpired in a more satisfying fashion. We saw scoring (Packers vs. Saints on Thursday night), impressive performances (Baltimore, Philadelphia’s offense), less-than-impressive performances (Kansas City, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Tony Romo), amazing individual performances and even some record-breaking ones (Sebastian Janikowski’s 63-yard field goal to tie the NFL record, Tom Brady’s 517-yard Monday Night Football passing record and Patriots record, Wes Welker’s record-tying 99-yard reception), and, most of all, some outlandish fantasy football performances.

But the most intriguing outputs from across the league ultimately came from the quarterback position. The class of quarterbacks that currently inhabit the NFL impact the league substantially because, well, there hasn’t been this many exceptional quarterbacks in the NFL in a long time. The quarterback class of the 90s comes the closest (John Elway, Troy Aikman, Steve Young, Brett Favre, Jim Kelly, Warren Moon), and the passers of the 80s make a case because of Joe Montana and Dan Marino specifically, but also featured the likes of Elway, Moon, Joe Theismann, Phil Simms, Randall Cunningham and Boomer Esiason.

Some of those quarterbacks wouldn’t be considered elite if they played in the game today. The pure preciseness and preparation regimens passers have engendered are making the NFL so quarterback-oriented that it’s defying traditional football philosophy. You can say it’s the rule changes and the minimal contact receivers now have to deal with at the line of scrimmage, but that has nothing to do with the fact that the best quarterbacks in the NFL are now unwavering savants.

The impact quarterbacks have on the league was more than apparent in week 1, both good and bad. A significant group of quarterbacks portrayed so, and we’ll separate them into four categories based on what we saw last week. Additionally, we’ll parlay their week two prospects into some gambling predictions.

The Conundrums: Matt Ryan, Sam Bradford, Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo

Each one of these quarterbacks played sloppily in his own way, which obviously proved detrimental. Matt Ryan’s Sunday was highlighted by a spinning scramble to his left, followed by an attempt to catch his fall with his right hand (the hand which was holding the football), and left the ball on the turf for a Bears defender to recover. The Falcons were down 23-6 at that point – already playing horrifically behind bad tackling – and that very turnover with 6:00 remaining in the third quarter sealed the deal.

Sam Bradford played lethargically all game for the Rams, conveying difficulties in hitting his receivers on third down and never appeared on the same page with them at all. The highlight of the St. Louis offense came on a 47-yard touchdown run by Steven Jackson in the first quarter, but Jackson ended up straining a quad muscle on that very run and only returned for one more play. The Rams had no way to exploit Philadelphia’s weak linebacker core thereafter, and Sam Bradford’s ugly performance never stood a chance to make up for it. The up-and-comer finished the game 17-of-30 with only 188 yards and zero touchdowns. The Rams were a horrendous 2-12 on third down and only scored six points in the final three quarters.

Ben Roethlisberer accounted for five turnovers alone, highlighted by his most dismal (yet usually patented) throw, as he rolled to his left and heaved a pass across the middle of the field to Baltimore safety Ed Reed. Reed is guaranteed to be lurking in center field in that very situation almost every time, yet Roethlisberger still felt the urge to test Reed’s perennial prowess in center field while rolling to his left as a right-handed quarterback. Big Ben is known for his immaculate improvisational skills, but that very play capped off an already-appalling Pittsburgh performance with 11:00 remaining in the fourth quarter. Losing 35-7 to the archrival Ravens undoubtedly stung Steelers fans and probably will for a few weeks.

As for Tony Romo, it was a classic performance. He played well all game, playing maestro in an imposing offensive symphony. For three quarters against the Jets on Sunday night, the 2011 Cowboys were already showing signs of turning over a new leaf. Then Tony Romo reminded us all why he’s Tony Romo, fumbling just a yard shy of the goal line midway through the fourth quarter, deterring Dallas’ chances of obtaining a two-touchdown lead and putting the game virtually out of reach. Once the Jets tied the game at 24, Romo subsequently threw an interception that immediately put the Jets in field goal range. As always, Romo put up fabulous numbers (23-36, 342 yards, 2 touchdowns, a 101.9 passer rating), but, as Romo has done so many times before, he deflated the Cowboys all on his own. There’s a difference between a great fantasy quarterback and a quarterback that can win you football games and ultimately playoff games. The only difference between Romo and the other aforementioned quarterbacks: he’s not a conundrum. Conventional opinion would say he is, but conventional wisdom would say that nothing about his week 1 performance was shocking.

Week 2 outlook: Matt Ryan struggles once again and the “What’s wrong with Matt Ryan?” questions will be answered by ESPN analysts all week, this time after dealing with an Eagles defense that appears to have the kind of speed that irritates the Falcons. Sam Bradford has a nice bounce-back game versus a terrible Giants secondary, Big Ben throws for 350 yards against the Seahawks and the Pittsburgh fans feel somewhat alleviated, and Tony Romo lights up the San Francisco secondary and everybody forgets how bad he is.

Picks: STEELERS (-14) over Seahawks; Cowboys (-3) over 49ERS; Eagles (-2.5) over FALCONS; Rams (+6) over GIANTS

Pleasant Performances: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Rex Grossman, Matt Stafford, Joe Flacco
Ryan Fitzpatrick put up respectable numbers (17-25, 208 yards, four touchdowns and zero picks) in a 41-7 route over the Chiefs that featured some surprisingly scintillating offense. Wide receiver Stevie Johnson seems to be Fitzpatrick’s favorite target and an exciting commodity, and Fred Jackson somehow carried over his quietly commendable rushing from last season. The Buffalo Bills have somehow become a fun team to watch – a trickle-down effect of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s quarterback play.

Rex Grossman played well in his Washington debut (yes, I really did just say that with complete seriousness), albeit against a Giants team that could be terrible. But still, 305 yards with two touchdowns and no picks is absolutely outstanding for Grossman’s standards, and the Redskins might be decent this year if he keeps it going. That is, if he keeps it going.

Matt Stafford got through a whole game without getting injured (Almost. He limped off the field at least once), and that was the difference in the Lions’ week one victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Josh Freeman almost added yet another comeback victory to his young resume, but the two-touchdown deficit was just too much to come back from. Without Stafford, Calvin Johnson wouldn’t have made his two beautiful touchdown catches, which were ultimately the difference in the game. Just as in week 1, Stafford will be the difference in defying the laws of the Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection this season.

Joe Flacco made some beautiful throws in a pristine statistical performance, contrary of his opponent’s output. Flacco has shown signs of greatness in his young career but has never seemed to sustain it. A convincing week 1 victory over the Ravens’ biggest rivals is an auspicious start, and now the Ravens have the look of a serious Super Bowl contender after only one week.

Week 2 outlook: Ryan Fitzpatrick duels with Oakland’s fast defense in an exciting, high-scoring affair and racks up over 300 yards, Rex Grossman plays respectably once again with 200 yards and a touchdown against Arizona, Joe Flacco duplicates his week 1 performance in a route over Tennessee, and Matt Stafford dismantles the Kansas City defense at a higher level than Fitzpatrick, putting the laws of the Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection in jeopardy.

Picks: LIONS (-9) over Chiefs; BILLS (-3.5) over Raiders (I know, I’m picking against my own team. It’s an early Sunday game on the East Coast for a West Coast team after a short week. I’m not confident. And the Bills are a little scary.); REDSKINS (-4) over Cardinals, Ravens (-6) over TITANS

Part 2 of this column features "The Promise" and "The Elite." To read Part 2, click here.

SFE NFL Preview, Part II of II: Using Week 1 as a Barometer

noreply@blogger.com (Clayton Terry) — Thu, 08 Sep 2011 17:36:00 +0000

Instead of mapping out an entire NFL preview including all 32 NFL teams like every other blog post entitled “2011 NFL Preview”, let’s do something a little different. Five games in week one jump out as possible indicators of what to expect from some teams in the upcoming season. We’ll leave the 32-team breakdown to Bill Barnwell. Here are the five games:

New Orleans at Green Bay (Thursday night)
The 2009-10 Super Bowl champs vs. the 2010-11 Super Bowl champs. Drew Brees vs. Aaron Rodgers. One athletic and wonderfully schemed defense vs. another. Could there be a more perfect opening game? Who cares if the opening Monday Night Football games are sub-par when we’re getting this astounding game four days earlier? The weather should be beautiful for Green Bay’s standards, and neither team should be noticeably affected by the lockout based on the engrained continuity and experience they already share. It’s the best game we could possibly ask for following an uncertain offseason.

To top it all off, these two teams will probably exude traits indicative of what we’ll see for the rest of the season right off the bat. Both of these teams are considered potential Super Bowl contenders with abstract caveats. The talent is there, and the systems are there, but will they perform?

The only concern for the Packers is the Super Bowl hangover. It manifests more often than not in the NFL, and if Green Bay does elude the contagion while concurrently gaining health (15 players on IR last year and still won the Super Bowl, but everyone knows that already), then the Packers have the best chance to repeat since the latest Patriots dynasty.

If the Saints stifle Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees lights up the scoreboard, New Orleans will appear lethal immediately. Brees was quietly below standards last season (completed 68% of his passes and threw for 4,620 yards, yet threw a career-high 22 interceptions) and the team still managed an 11-5 record and a playoff appearance with the Super Bowl hangover to consider. Because of that, the Saints are the scariest team in the NFL prospectively and an impressive week one performance on the road against the defending Super Bowl champions would be just enough to back that up. Throw in newly acquired running back depth (Darren Sproles, rookie Mark Ingram along with the incumbent Pierre Thomas), health, experience, and brilliant schemes on both sides of the football, and the Saints are more than capable of using week one as a catapult for an exceptional season.

Philadelphia Eagles at St. Louis Rams

For those of you wondering why the Eagles weren’t this year’s Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection, it’s because they’re not considered a sleeper. There’s a reason why the word is in the title of the phenomenon. The Eagles have unquestionably been the most talked about team all offseason, but they did finish 11-5 last season and made a playoff appearance, so something good is already in place. The problem is, the expectations created by augmenting something good with notable acquisitions have the potential of backfiring. All-Pro Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie were added to the secondary, Ronnie Brown for running back depth, Steve Smith for wide receiver depth, and quarterback Mike Vick was extended for a hefty $100 million. Suddenly, the Eagles are a Super Bowl favorite flanked by a mass of bandwagoners. Furthermore, Vick was given an extension only two years removed from prison and subsequent a season that literally nobody predicted. With aberration factor at the quarterback position and absolutely no continuity to work with following the lockout, Philadelphia’s first game is more crucial than any other team in the league – so matching up with the Rams couldn’t be a better way to kick things off.

Quarterback Sam Bradford is an already emerging star with weapons to work with and newly acquired depth in the backfield. The Rams are a legitimate team on the rise, and obtain the potential to pull off some we’re-young-and-don’t-know-any-better wins against quality opponents. The team was already gaining a sense of identity last season, but somehow didn’t manifest in the last regular season game against the Seattle Seahawks, which knocked them out of playoff contention.

The Rams are still young, but the pieces and the potential are there. If they beat the Eagles week one, they’ll already looking at playoff prospects and Philadelphia will already start feeling the heat. If the Eagles win, well, they’ll be meeting expectations while the young team licks its wounds and learns from its youthful mistakes.

Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If you read the first part of this preview, you already know what the Lions are facing this season. As for the Bucs, they’re coming off a season in which they enjoyed an exceedingly comfortable schedule. The promise is there with a budding talent in Josh Freeman at quarterback and a head coach in Raheem Morris that the players fully believe in. But if the Lions really are that sleeper team that everyone thinks they are, Tampa is in trouble. If the Lions truly are cursed by being this year’s Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection, then the Bucs will roll through week one behind a 275-yard, 3-touchdown performance by Freeman. The most intriguing week one matchup that nobody is talking about consists of some equally intriguing implications.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

If you know the NFL, you know what to expect from this game: Punishing defense, smash-mouth, grind-it-out offense, a handful of dazzling plays by Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, maybe one perfect back-shoulder fade by Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco for a touchdown, Troy Polamalu flying around the field for Pittsburgh, Ed Reed playing center field for Baltimore, a combined score of less than 30, etc., etc., etc.

But when have we ever seen these teams play in week one? How big of a deal is this? How do the Ravens rebound after losing to their archrivals at home in week one? Can they afford to be demoralized by such a loss if this year is finally the year the defense ages?

As for the Steelers, their last two championships have been separated by two seasons, and the last time the Steelers won the Super Bowl was in the 2008-09 season. So if there was a “prospectively scariest team in the NFL besides the New Orleans Saints” entitlement to hand out, it would be given to the Steelers. The experience is there, an identity is in place, the lockout will have virtually no affect, and, as always, defense wins championships. The Steelers are a nice preseason Super Bowl pick, but an opening Sunday loss to the hated Ravens changes all of those notions.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets

NBC should jumpstart its opening Sunday Night Football game by calling it the “Show Me What You Got” game, and play that terrible video you just watched just to remind us it’s on network television. This is the year for both of these teams to prove something.

For the Jets, it’s proving they’re capable of reaching the expectations head coach Rex Ryan puts in front of them every season – winning the Super Bowl (or at least getting there). For the Cowboys, it’s proving they’re a viable postseason team.

Both Tony Romo and Mark Sanchez have something to prove, and both will probably be expected to have the best seasons of their careers in order for their respective teams to succeed. Both teams have noticeable holes (the Jets’ offensive line lost some key pieces and is now in question when it used to be the best in the NFL; the Cowboys whiffed on the Asomugha sweepstakes and couldn’t shore up their thin secondary) surrounded by reliable, experienced talent. The Jets are in a much better position in terms of team identity, but if Jason Garrett becomes the answer at head coach in his first full season with the Cowboys, Dallas may finally get over the hump in a season in which America’s team isn’t even the most prevalent team in its own division. A week one victory over a Jets team that’s been to the AFC championship two years running would be a significant step in getting over that hump.

Does the entire season hinge on week one for all of the aforementioned teams? Probably not, but it will be a huge indicator. If the first week of the season wasn’t anticipated enough already, it is now considering how much a loss means outside of a simple 0-1 record. So try to enjoy the opening games, even if your team doesn’t look so good. Back to football.