The Fan of Every NBA Team

2015 All-Star Picks

2015-01-29T01:49:00.002-05:00

As always, I wanted to put together a list of who I think should play in the NBA's version of Super Bowl Sunday. The fan voting has ended and the 2015 starters for the NBA All-Star Game have been announced. Now it’s time to ponder who should fill out the remaining rosters to play at the big game.

All-Star selections; click to enlarge

What do I think of the fans’ selection of the starting lineup?

Other than Kyle Lowry's surprise booting of Dwyane Wade from the starting lineup in the last round of All-Star balloting, voting in a player from an abysmal 9-37 team is just beyond me. Why David Stern or Adam Silver never stepped up and changed the impact of fan voting is equally perplexing. At least we can count on Mark Cuban to shed some light on other reasons why the system sucks - and cleverly without calling the fans a bunch of idiots. I of course am referring to the fans' selection of Carmelo Anthony. They may not have gotten the Lowry pick wrong, but a guy from the league's WORST team? Come on.

As for the West starting five, please copy and paste what I said about Melo and replace "Melo" with "Kobe." Sure, he will be replaced regardless due to a season-ending injury, but either James Harden or Klay Thompson belong in that 2-guard slot.

MY RESERVE PICKS

Key Omissions due to Injury:

Russell Westbrook (Oklahoma City)

Eastern Conference

As I do every year, I base my picks off of teams who are winning. In a perfect world, I would put four Hawks on this year's team. What they are doing this year is not only legit, but incredible. We haven't seen a team exceeding its individual talent like this since the 2004-2008 Detroit Pistons. I'll settle for at least three, with Millsap being a potential injury replacement for Melo if necessary. They just won 17 freaking games in a row - reminding me an awful lot of the T-Mac-led Houston Rockets in 2007-08 that won 22 straight games; just a bunch of great pieces that complement each other very well without that much superstar talent. They might not win the championship, but they are legit and really amazing to watch.

Jeff Teague, Paul Millsap, Al Horford and company look to dominate the East

I granted two All-Stars each to Washington, Chicago, and Cleveland - the next best teams in the East (sorry, Toronto, but you're too young and inexperienced). And yes, I do think Jimmy Butler is deserving of a nod more so than Derrick Rose - at least, to the season's midpoint. Rose has been ballin' of late - averaging 24.1 points, 5 assists, and 3.4 (!!) 3-pointers in the last 15 games. Had he been healthy and playing like this all year, he would be a lock in my book. But I gotta recognize Jimmy Butler, who is an odds-on favorite to win this year's Most Improved Player award.

Washington is a very intriguing team to watch. They broke out last season, making it to the second round of the Eastern Conference playoffs before bowing down to a crumbling-but-talented Indiana Pacers team. Marcin Gorat has only gotten better, and Paul Pierce's veteran presence seems to be paying off. And, he seems to have enough left in the tank before he vacates his small forward position in favor of Kevin Durant's homecoming. Too soon?

After a slow start, LeBron and Kyrie
look to get the Cavs back on track

Speaking of homecomings, LeBron James is finally starting to look like himself, eh? After looking emaciated to start the year (he reportedly lost about 20 pounds in the offseason), he seems to be refreshed after missing a few weeks to heal his nagging injuries. He has a wrist injury that will prevent him from playing this weekend, but he is poised to have Cleveland finally gel together in the coming weeks. And hey, having Kyrie Irving - another sure-fire All-Star - helps too, especially when he can carry a LeBron-less team past a very, very tough Trailblazers squad and drop 55 on them on Wednesday night.

Now for the team LeBron left - the Miami Heat. Dwyane Wade, while still battling nagging injuries, is reminding everyone that he's not dead yet. He is averaging 21.4 points and 5.4 assists per game, and Miami's offense looks completely hurt when he's not on the floor. Looks like he's going to miss a little bit of time with a strained hamstring, and might need an injury replacement, anyways. Chris Bosh has missed some time as well, but is stepping up as a focal point in the offense post LBJ - averaging 21.3 ppg/7.5 rpg. With the (L)Eastern Conference as a whole being pretty shallow, that's good enough for me to make the reserve forward slot.

Speaking of Miami, let's play a "Guess Who" game. A Miami Heat player is ranked 6th in the entire NBA in PER. Who do you think it is? Well, if you go by my All-Star picks, it's gotta be either D-Wade or Bosh, right?

...Right?

......

Wrong. The answer is Hassan Whiteside, who has completely come into his own with a whopping 27.01 PER rating. Only Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Stephen Curry are ahead of him. That's it!! He's ahead of freaking LeBron!! Granted it's early in the season with a relatively small sample size of games, and he doesn't play that many minutes (17.1 on average), but still - the guy was an early second round pick in 2010 by Sacramento, and NO ONE saw this coming. Incredible story. But I digress...

Apologies to Milwaukee, whom I still can't name five players from off the top of my head, but I would not be opposed to Brandon Knight making a wildcard spot.

Western Conference
First off, my apologies to Russell Westbrook for the snub. Ironically, I am one of the most adamant defenders of this oft-criticized superstar. But I think both he and KD missed too many games to be considered for the contest. KD (as always) got voted in, but there are an astronomical number of deserving candidates in the West who played more games than both of them.

The Splash Brothers have made their mark this season

Golden State is this year's most talked-about and arguably most popular team. With Mark Jackson parting with them on rocky terms (at least with team management) at the end of last season, nobody knew if the Warriors could be serious contenders as constructed. But leave it up to Steve Kerr
- the world's most underrated basketball mind - to make Mark Jackson's inspiring coaching style a distant memory. They are now 36-7, and a whopping 21-2 at home. How they will respond to a predominantly road-heavy schedule after the All-Star break remains to be seen. But for now, I am rewarding them with THREE All-Stars: Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and breakout star Draymond Green. Curry, of course, has catapulted himself into the league's best point guard conversation. Even last season, it was hard to see this coming with this position being arguably the most loaded in the NBA. But the fans already know that, and that's why he received the most votes of any player to play in Brooklyn on February 15th.

Whereas Curry was the leading vote-getter by fans, I think his running mate Klay Thompson will be the equivalent popular pick for head coaches. He has become arguably the best two-way shooting guard in the league. The guy has improved his game in so many ways - even putting himself in the record books by scoring the most points in a quarter in NBA history. This historic event can only be explained in NBA Jam terms. How did he get so good? This article by Ethan Sherwood Strauss is one of the most informative articles I've ever seen and explains all the work Thompson's new moves to add to his repertoire. Any explanation that shows video footage of a player's improvements is extremely telling.

And then there's Draymond Green. Admittedly, I am still giddy about picking him up on my fantasy team early in the season. But if you watch Golden State play, this guy has so many game-defining intangibles. In the Warriors OT loss to Chicago on Tuesday night, I watched Green - time and time and again - consistently out-hustle TWO seven-footers in Gasol and Joakim Noah for a lot of key rebounds and tip-ins -including a last-second tip-in after out-jumping both big men to force OT. For a guy who gives up about 4 inches to them, that is impressive. I know I'm pointing to a loss, but he makes relentless plays on a routine basis and is a HUGE reason why the Warriors are off to this start. Steve Kerr has recognized this from the beginning, and rewarded him with a starting role even with David Lee coming back from an injury. With his overall contributions to the best team in the NBA, I just can't get myself to leave him off the list.

Okay, enough about the Warriors. The West is as competitive as it's ever been, but there are only a few spots left.

Lillard (left) and Harden (right) are two of the most
lethal offensive weapons in the league

James Harden is making a strong case for MVP. Even a former teammate who he completely dissed upon his departure, Chandler Parsons, is vouching for his candidacy. Along with Thompson, he is a sure fire bet to get the coaches' votes, as he manages to drop about 30 ppg despite receiving continuous double and triple-team coverage.

Now for the team that defeated Harden's Rockets in the playoffs last season - the Portland Trailblazers. This victory, of course, was most famous for the thrilling series-winning buzzer-beating three-pointer by Damian Lillard - who absolutely has to be next in line in the guard positions after Harden and Thompson. He has carried that momentum this year to extraordinary levels and an endless pile of highlights. His less-flashy but equally lethal teammate, LaMarcus Aldridge, deserves his perennial All-Star bid as well - after several years of being a snub up until 2013.

With two current non-playoff teams - OKC and New Orleans - each having an All-Star representative in the starting lineup (KD and AD), that leaves very few spots left for a super stacked conference. If you reward the teams that are currently in the playoff hunt, you have to recognize, in some order, the guys who are making it happen for their teams: Duncan, Dirk, CP3, Mike Conley, Kawhi Leonard, Goran Dragic, and Eric Bledsoe. In other words, 7 guys for 2 spots. It's only fair that I pick players from the two unrepresented teams - San Antonio and Dallas - and go with Duncan and Dirk. With the Clippers already having Blake Griffin represent them, I have no choice but to snub Chris Paul. I'm even more mad about leaving off Mike Conley, who is also having a stellar year for the Grizz - but Gasol is repping Memphis already. One of these great guards will get an injury replacement call anyway (for Kobe), but for now I have to leave them off.

Damn, that was hard.

NBA Christmas Day Wish List

2014-12-25T01:42:00.000-05:00

As we close in on another five-game NBA extravaganza, we would like to put together our wish list for each of the teams playing on Christmas Day - and maybe one or two that should be playing that day.

Since I have a fellow writer on board (Kunal), we will exchange ideas for six wishes each.

Vijay's Wishes

1. Rajon Rondo returning to elite form as a new Maverick

Rajon Rondo (right) will make life a lot easier for
Dallas' incumbent primary ball handler, Monta Ellis (left)

Vijay: I know, I know. The Mavericks aren't playing that day, but they are a must-mention right now. After being mired by trade rumors for seemingly half-a-decade, former Celtic Rajon Rondo finally finds himself on a contending team again in Dallas. It is worth mentioning on my wish list that I hope Rondo's addition makes for yet another great contending team out West. In 2007, remember when people were concerned Rondo would not be good enough as a point guard to properly run a team with Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen? They won the first year he teamed up with those guys. I see him doing great things immediately. An obvious upgrade over Jameer Nelson, Rondo makes the Mavs instant title contenders.

Kunal: A trade may have discovered Rondo’s price – but, I agree, we need time to discover whether he makes Dallas a strong(er) contender. The Dribble, Screen, Dribble Dribble, Screen, & More Dribble Rondo Show isn’t what the Mavs need to improve. And Dallas surely isn’t seeking a poor-shooting point guard. Nonetheless, it got both for Christmas. Ok, ok – I can also admit that, other than watching Rondo hide without the ball, he and Dirk could have made for fun Christmas pick-&-pops, and Chandler’s signature, two-handed slams – via RR dimes – would definitely complement my spiked eggnog. But the West is loaded with PGs, many of who are playing on Dec 25th, making it worth waiting until Boxing Day to see Rondo withstand comparisons to JKidd and prove whether his playoff iteration of yesteryear is ready for a return.

2. More Mavericks, Blazers, Pelicans & Grizzlies games, but less Lakers and Knicks

Melo (left) and Kobe (right) have been featured every
Christmas Day in recent memory...but why?

Vijay: While I am always thrilled to watch five NBA games every Christmas Day, the NBA has got to show us teams that are much more worth watching than two of the league's cellar dwellers in LA and New York. Those who create the schedule seem to be irrationally stubborn about giving them entirely too much national TV exposure no matter how bad they are. Ratings are down because these teams are awful and the TV networks keep showing them - not because the league does not have enough good teams.

Portland and San Antonio played an epic triple-overtime game Thursday night. By the way, that was the Spurs' second triple-OT game in a row! Although these are both small-market teams, do you think people would have enjoyed that game on Christmas Day,or would they rather kick back and watch the Knicks get blown out at home? Please.

Kunal: I get it – Christmas matches are supposed to be between the best teams. And for the most part (8 of the 10 teams), the best players and teams are playing on Jesus’ bday, with the exception being the Knicks and Lakers (combined record of 13-42). But before you go wishing for a Rip City or Memphis BBQ Christmas, take a moment to appreciate that the Lakers and Knicks are to Christmas what the Packers and Cowboys are to Thanksgiving: certain to deliver holiday drama like a crazy uncle. Plus, it could be worse: Adam Silver might have re-gifted a Celtics game.

3. Pau Gasol showing the Lakers why he was missed

Not surprisingly, Gasol is having a great season in Chicago. After some crazy disrespectful treatment by the Lakers organization the last few seasons, he is showing us once again why he is one of the best big men in the game. Under Mike D'Antoni's offense in LA, he found himself as a third or fourth option, and camped out on the perimeter shooting mid-range and three-point shots. Now, as a focal point in the offense, he is averaging 18.7 points and 11.7 rebounds per game. Pretty good for a guy who was a scapegoat for the Lakers' shortcomings the past few seasons.

Kunal: Agreed – the Lakers and its fans definitely miss Gasol. But not all relationships are meant to be forever, and I too am happy to see Pau thrive. It’s just a shame that Chicago is the beneficiary.

4. Miami finding its stride again under a revitalized D-Wade

While Dwyane Wade is having his best season in years, his team's sub-.500 record clearly doesn't reflect it. Common consensus was that his best years were behind him, but it is great seeing him coming back and playing at an elite level once again. My wish is for Wade's great season to be fruitful, as he clearly does not have a whole lot of them left.

Problem is, the Heat still stink. Chris Bosh has been out for four straight games with a calf injury. Other than him and D-Wade, Luol Deng is the only guy capable of sustaining a consistent offense. It doesn't look good right now. Still, with a healthy Chris Bosh, this team should find itself contending for a top-four seed in the very watered-down Eastern Conference.

Kunal: D-Wade’s resurrection is as unexplainable as Kobe’s shot selection this season. I mean, I am still recovering from agonizing Finals moments when Danny Green (DANNY GREEN!) and Boris Diaw seemingly embarrassed Wade – defensively and offensively – to the point of awkwardness. But then Lebron migrated north and returned the crown of Alpha Dog of South Beach to Wade. (Bosh is forever omega.) And with Wade making a alpha money with a cool $18 million this season, it is great for him and the NBA that he’s returned to the play that solidified him as the third-best shooting guard of all-time – like dropping 42 on Utah the other night. As for wishes, I’m excited to witness Miamians react to the news that Christmas isn’t opening tip to the season.

It will be difficult for LeBron (left) and D-Wade (right)
to be opponents again after four years of success together

5. An awesome show-down in LeBron's return to Miami

Vijay: You get the feeling that LeBron's first return to Miami does not quite have the same ring to it as his first return to Cleveland as a Heat player four years ago. You also get the feeling that this isn't quite a clash of the titans with both teams finding themselves fairly low in the weak Eastern Conference standings. We know the Heat have their issues post-LeBron, but Cleveland has also been struggling thus far - but understandably so as LeBron, Love, and Irving are in search of chemistry in their first year as teammates. Overall, this game is not going to get quite the hype as we foresaw before the season started.

Nevertheless, it will be fun watching D-Wade and LeBron squaring off as opponents again. As of now, Miami is only four games back of Cleveland in the standings, so you never know how important this will be as far as playoff positioning implications go.

Going back to Cleveland's struggles, a stat worth mentioning: Cavs are 8-2 when LeBron has at least 9 assists. Once LeBron fully learns his teammates' tendencies, and the offense becomes more cohesive, he will rack up the assists on many more occasions - and the team will win a lot more games.

Kunal: For part-time NBA fans, the Heat-Cavs game might seem like the best Christmas Day matchup. But as you said, as soon as one gets past the overdone storyline about Lebron getting back together with his ex, the head-to-head is a bit pedestrian: both teams are middle-of-the-pack in the feeble Eastern Conference and the bad blood was reconciled by a low-profile Decision 2.0. But that doesn’t mean that I’m not excited to see isolations of Lebron vs D-Wade, and hopefully LBJ v Bosh, if the Heat forward-Raptors mascot is recovered from a strained calf. Hell, can I wish for ABC to pay Bob Costas to deliver a theatrical opening narrative to the game that ends with the official song of basketball.

Aside from throwback soundtracks and split-second moments within a 48-minute game, what’s my chief wish for the Cavs-Heat matchup? To see Mario Chalmers. I haven’t seen Mario since he took vacation days during the Finals. And with the NBA focused on its #nogifts campaign, I expect Kyrie to stuff Mario’s stocking with lumps of coal. It might not be on your Christmas list, but highlights that star Mario on the receiving end of dynamic plays feel as good as hearing that Heat “fans” observed OT of Game 6 through the glass doors of the American Airlines Arena.

6. Stephen Curry overtaking Chris Paul as the league's best point guard

Vijay: With Steve Kerr having his Warriors blaze out to a ridiculously unforeseen 22-3 record, one can't help but credit Stephen Curry for making Kerr look like his former coach Phil Jackson (well, in terms of W-L). My wish is for Curry to have an epic toe-to-toe battle with Chris Paul - the league's consensus best point guard. But after seeing Chris Paul failing to come through time and time again - including against the Thunder in Game 5 of last year's playoffs - the window of him being the league's best point guard is closing with the way Steph Curry has come into his own.

The Warriors-Clips game on Christmas Day gives Curry a great opportunity on a national stage to show why he is capable of being the league's next best point guard. Last season, the Warriors fell short against Paul's Clips. But they did not have Steve Kerr coaching, or a completely revamped bench, or even this year's version of Steph Curry.

Kunal:What if, in March 2008, I told you that Dell’s son would end up having mad handles AND definitively shoot better than his daddy? You’d likely say that one of the two might be possible, but no way to both. Well guess what: that high-school-looking kid from Davidson – who then torched a 2-seeded Gtown – has now grown up to be an NBA-shooting assassin masked as a college student.

But before one attempts to hype Steph Curry as the NBA’s premier PG, let’s remember that CP3 will definitely come correct to Christmas dinner to preserve his title as the league’s floor general. So are we hasty to identify the Warriors-Clipps as a PG-passing-of-the-torch kinda game? Absolutely.

Nonetheless, both players know that we’ll be watching closely and excessively reading into certain plays, since Steph Curry will be advancing his MVP campaign and CP3 (undeservingly) proving his legacy as one of the greatest points guards, which many refuse to give him until he shows up to a conference finals. Lob City is still exciting and good, but the cool kids in the Bay Area are running game – so here is to wishing for less legacy hyperbole and more point-guard magic this Christmas.

Kunal's Wishes

7. Splash Brothers’ Green Light

Kunal: You know the best thing about the Splash Brothers? Hint: it’s neither their sharpshooting skills nor college-like comradery. It’s that they, who electrify crowds like any other duo this league has seen, are no more physically intimidating than the regulars who play on Court 1 at your rec center. And in today’s NBA – a league of imaginary-like athletes whose wingspans and verticals cause scouts and fans to gawk – it is refreshing to know that someone who could borrow my clothes could also be my favorite player.

Other than the physical characteristics of an everyday guy, the Splash Brothers deliver us two (very) different doses of sharpshooting. From Curry, we admire a point guard who resembles the love child of Allen Iverson and Mark Price – the impeccable mixture of handles and range that reminds us the two are not necessarily mutually exclusive. If you give him an inch, he'll torch ya from downtown. But if you get up in him, he'll have you on your heels and looking silly. Good luck with that assignment.

As for Klay Thompson, he’s the perfect catch-and-shoot compliment, which makes defenses honest, to Curry’s shoot-or-penetrate powerful play; plus, Klay enjoys awkward, self-congratulatory air swings after dunking on 7-foot Sideshow Rob (see video).

For part-time NBA fans, the Thunder did offer the most university-like NBA experience, with an arena of fans who pride themselves and their team for being "name-on-the-front-of-the-jersey" kinda of people. But now that the Thunder have buckled down – after early season injuries to KD and Westbrook – to restore an honest record, intermittent NBA fans will realize this Christmas that they would be wise to pivot their marginal, regular season interest to Mark Cooper’s homeboys: the Golden State Warriors.

"hey, yo! what's up? where's my theme music?!"

Vijay: I like how you keep saluting the part-time NBA fans. But you're right - whether you're a fair-weather or avid NBA fan, the Dubs are an absolute MUST-watch team this year. Not only are the two "brothers" entertaining, but their supporting cast makes for some entertaining basketball. Harrison Barnes has supplanted Andre Iguodala as a more explosive starting small forward. Still, Iguodala and even Mareese Speights are fun to watch coming off the bench. And by the way, two KEY guys - David Lee and Andrew Bogut - are still hurt. Just imagine what they would be like fully healthy. With Steph Curry as the team's engine, there's no telling how far they can go with their lights-out shooting and abundance of athleticism at every position.

8. An I-95 Christmas Dogfight

Kunal: If you’re from the Northeast, you’re familiar with the settled science that, to a DC resident, an NYC weekend feels like unyielding liquid cocaine and that, to a New Yorker, a DC weekend equates to a BlackBerryville bed and breakfast. I get it, NY: you have world-class restaurants, better music and art scenes, and the Garden is to basketball what Lord’s is to cricket.

But while the jury is still out on regulatory capture between Wall Street and Washington regulators, the verdict is in that the Wizards (19-8) are I-95’s most talented and fun team, led by John Wall’s deserving-of-an-MVP-conversation season and Bradley Beal’s arguable emergence as this generation’s version of Jesus Shuttlesworth. Shame that Beal went to UF and not Big State.

Looking ahead to Thursday (or perhaps I'm looking backwards to convey a position), the Wizards have experienced recent success against the Knickerbockers, winning the last four matchups by a margin of 7 points. But this year's Christmas can only be more festive the Knicks, considering that Carmelo isn’t injured this time around and last year’s 29-point loss to the Thunder is hard to beat. But if a team were able to underperform last year’s blowout or start a short-lived run by beating a formidable postseason competitor in the Wizards, it would be the Knicks. But the truth in all of it – I (and all of us) should find both versions of a Christmas Day Knicks performance entertaining.

Bradley Beal (left) and John Wall (right) have the look of
becoming one of the league's best backcourts

Vijay: I just started living in DC five months ago, and man do I notice the difference between here and NYC. Even more visible is the difference between the two cities' teams as you mentioned. I can see this being a competitive Christmas Day matinee game, but it is hard to imagine this being a good potential playoff matchup - and hell, a playoff matchup in general with the Knicks looking to lock up a top-five lottery pick. In that sense, I am not too sure if this game will be all that entertaining in terms of significance, which brings me to my second wish above to not even showcase the present-day Knicks on national TV.

Instead, I'll focus on the Wizards. The addition of Paul Pierce and his veteran presence has really helped this team jump out to the second-best record in the East. This is all despite not having Bradley Beal for about four weeks with a broken hand. With Marcin Gortat looking like one of the league's best centers (I would only put the Gasol brothers, Joakim Noah, Anthony Davis, Tyson Chandler, and DeMarcus Cousins definitively ahead of him - sorry, Dwight), the Wizards have the look of a contender in the East.

9. Critics getting off Westbrook's back

Kunal: If Durant is the NBA’s favorite son, Russell Westbrook is definitely the league’s redheaded stepchild. A megastar among his peers, Westbrook still carries the burden of having to control his second-to-none killer instincts and fulfill our expectations of feeding the league’s sweetheart and MVP -- Kevin Durant. President Obama has a high-stress job and Speaker Boehner has the unreasonable responsibility of controlling House Republicans, but both realize that Westbrook is a better guy than they are for attempting to live up the the expectations of a Thunder point guard.

This past week, as KD sat out against the Lakers, Westbrook showed us why he is undoubtedly the scariest point guard in years. I know this is crazy to say, but to steal a term from Wilbon, I think that Russell plays with a (slightly less) controlled rage that we haven’t seen since the always-cool Michal Jordan.

Westbrook should focus on what he's good at
- ferociously finishing at the rim

Vijay: I always thought Westbrook was unfairly criticized throughout his career. He's a classic case of a guy that does 99% of things EXTREMELY well, and the other 1% is debatable. People tend to make a mountain of a mole hill in terms of his deficiencies. But I would argue that the 1% of things he does is merely a side effect of being an on-edge player. I would argue with you that we have had players who played with a certain controlled rage - such as Charles Barkley and Ron Artest. Granted, Westbrook has the talent to become much better than them, but we've seen the two of them do a boneheaded thing or two as a result of their uber-competitive mentality on the court. That being said, Westbrook can also control his temper a bit better than those two guys. Also, don't tell him to pass more, because he is a straight-up assassin and attacker on the court.

10. Seeing the Scrutinized Outperform the Steady

Kunal: Whenever I witness Westbrook or Tony Parker convert on an incredible drive, which both do often, my reaction to each captures how I (and likely many) feel about each star. With Parker, I admire a player who looks like an everyday Parisian who somehow magically slices through NBA defenses with the simplest of head fakes and impeccable timing, leaving us all wondering how his low-release layup wasn't sent to the fourth-row seats (again). On the other end of the spectrum of incredible finishes, we witness Russell Westbrook's athletic ability and vision to anticipate a defensive shift before he and defenders realize how the play might mature.

Suppose that we imagine that we were guarding each player on their good day...with Parker, we would constantly wonder on whether a quicker or more studious player could have guarded Parker's shifty dance; but with Westbrook, we would quickly sense that his attacks to the rim are what violent, unguardable moves genuinely look (and feel) like. It's Balanced vs Belligerent on Christmas Day – and this year I'm getting stooopid.

Vijay: You bring up quite an interesting comparison. Between Westbrook and Parker, it is so difficult to say who is the better one because of how differently they each play. But you're right on in that it is a fantastic clash of styles. While this game won't tell us who the better point guard is, it will still give us an idea of which player is more devastating to the other team's defense. The thing with Parker is, we've seen him come through time and time again in championship-deciding moments. We have not seen that with Westbrook quite yet. Until then, I am giving a slight nod to the four-time NBA champ.

11. Bulls' Jimmy Butler Redeems Chicago Suburbs' Corner Store, Also Returns Esteem for Bulls' 2-Guard Position

Kunal: I know, these wishes are just weird and senseless. However, give me an opportunity to explain why Jimmy Butler (ok, mostly just his first name) is relevant to a Chicago Christmas: Home Alone.

Why Home Alone? Here is a hint: the stolen toothbrush scene. Still not sure? Fine, then how about the quote: "Jimmy, stop that boy." Now if that video still confuses you, go to hell for being so young and full of promise. *(Separately, I feel like a think piece could be written about how the Home Alone police officer serves as the best way to react to a trivial shoplifting incident, but that is another blog and another blogger.)

Back to hoops: Jimmy Butler is playing superb basketball. Like All-Star kind of superb. Like he and Steph Curry were even named NBA "November Employees of the Month" kind of superb.

Sadly, many NBA enthusiasts might not appreciate how well Jimmy is playing (21.7 PTS, 3.3 AST, 6.2 REB), and Christmas is an opportunity for him to convey this (mostly) welcomed information. Sure, we are still far from any Bulls two-guard coming within two zip codes of MJ's numbers, but Jimmy Butler might be the extra horsepower the Bulls need to reach the Finals for the first time in 16 seasons. For all the missing pieces to a Bulls title that we've been trying to put our finger on, we can admit that Jimmy Butler is not what we were looking for, but we aren't disappointed that he might be that missing piece who was in the box the whole time.

Vijay: Not much to say here, other than Jimmy is my Most Improved Pick so far. Draymond Green in Golden State is knocking on the door, but I don't see this award going to anyone else the way Butler is stepping up this year.

12. A Triple Ocho Kinda Christmas

Kunal: I'll admit that I appreciate Kobe as much as Bill Simmons loves to write War & Peace-length books about basketball (which I celebrate). And Kobe's visit to the United Center, on the heels of just passing MJ in all-time points, opens an opportunity for us to appreciate a coined phrase by Reggie Miller for Vino: Triple Ocho. And how appropriate it would be for Triple Eight to bring it on the 25th like MJ did against Santa.

Vijay: Why am I not surprised that you're ending this column with a Kobe wish?

Why LeBron's Decision Made Sense for Reasons Beyond Basketball

2014-07-21T21:08:00.003-04:00

Let me start by saying that I'm not the biggest LeBron James fan. Although I respect his talent and acknowledge him as the best player in the world -- by far -- I was never blown away by him. No disrespect to him as a player, but I just never grew the same kind of love for him as I did for Michael Jordan or even Dwyane Wade (from 2004 to 2009). Both his game and personality just never jived with me in the same manner as those two guys. While he is today's best player, I don't put him in the same category as guys like Magic, MJ, and Larry Bird in terms of having a killer instinct to win. Personality wise, I think he oversells himself a little much (his introductory video in NBA 2K14 just made me roll my eyes), and sometimes his over-the-top business mentality approach has deservedly harmed his reputation. I also completely disagree with his stance on why he never participated in the Slam Dunk contest; if transcendent superstars before him such as MJ, Dr J, Dominique, etc. had no issues with participating, what makes him above all that?

Overall, I'm not completely in love with his game or personality. I've called into question plenty of his on and off-the-court decisions.

On July 11, 2014, however, LeBron James followed his heart, and that is the one decision that I am 100% behind.

When reading LeBron's first-hand essay on SI.com, I could not help but relate to what he is going through. I'm not suggesting, by any means, that I'm in the same stratosphere of importance, or that the impact of my decisions even pale in comparison to that of LeBron's; I'm just drilling it down to just how difficult it is to make big decisions - particularly in terms of the pressure of weighing options, as well as being criticized from all angles before, during, and after making a decision. After my experience making a decision to leave my job at NASA to go to graduate school as a full-time student at Georgetown, I can't even imagine the kind of heat LeBron was under with a whole different level of publicity and scrutiny.

LeBron James (right) will be teaming up with Kyrie Irving (left) next season

Six and a half years ago, I made the decision to leave my hometown and move to Orlando, FL to work for NASA. Much like LeBron's decision, it was an absolute no-brainer; NASA was the perfect place to establish myself and jump-start my career - similar to why Miami was the right place for LeBron four years ago. Since I was not criticized for that initial move and thus could not relate to that particular aspect of LeBron's first big decision, I found myself on the same side as many others in criticizing him for the manner in which he made this decision. However, I did believe that he made the correct decision in teaming up with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in order to win championships. I also give him credit for taking a substantial pay cut in order to make that arrangement. Four years later, despite all the level of hatred going his way at the time, I think most people no longer fault him for making that move.

What I could NOW relate to is LeBron's decision to come back home. While it might not make sense to most people to leave an income source, it makes a lot of sense for me to return close to home and pursue a passion. As great as NASA is, I just did not sustain the same love for it as I originally thought I would. Before working there, I saw an opportunity to achieve a stable career at a very respectable job. But now, I have a chance to transition myself into something that I like doing better - albeit taking a risk in order to do so. LeBron is taking a risk, but it is in his comfort zone where he is happy. Sure, it's a long shot to bring Cleveland its first title in about 50 years. But LeBron will be more than happy to take on that monumental task.

While LBJ is not getting nearly the same criticism now as in 2010, there was still a hefty amount of hate going his way nonetheless. Several reporters called into question his lack of professionalism and courtesy to his fellow teammates for dragging this decision out so long. Others said he would be a hypocrite for going back to Cleveland, given that he promised to win multiple championships in Miami (remember the infamous "not 1, not 2...." declaration). In many people's eyes, he conceded his goal of winning multiple championships by acknowledging the Cavaliers - as constructed - are a long way from winning a title.

After this has all come full circle, let's give the guy a break. Four years ago, he was a 25 year-old guy, who had never left Ohio, with the opportunity to move to Miami and play with his best friends. When growing up, many of us needed to leave the vicinity of our hometowns - just to check it off our bucket list. Before college, many of us were disgusted at the idea of living in our hometowns and being close to family. But after venturing out on our own and accomplishing what we wanted to, the idea of being near family seems a lot more appealing. As was the case for many of us, once LeBron sowed his oats, he gained some valuable perspective on what is most important to him.

Maybe it's because we're about the same age (we're just under 11 months apart), and we have experienced a similar path of personal growth. Nonetheless, I completely endorse LeBron's free agency decisions. As I know I need to go back to school to fulfill my personal and professional goals - even if it doesn't make sense to others - LeBron needs to do what gives him the most fitting personal situation. Sure he's pissed off and confused a lot of people along the way. He is guilty of being indecisive. But so am I, and I think many others would be too if they are torn between difficult options on a big decision. When I was torn between options, I pissed off my girlfriend (now fiancee) and my bosses at work with the roller coaster of a decision process. I knew whatever path I chose, there was not one end-all option that would make everybody happy. I had to do what was best for me (and of course, my finacee), and stop constantly and desperately searching for a perfect answer that everybody would endorse.

LeBron's biggest criticism hit him hard when he announced "The Decision" back in 2010. Make no mistake: he, as well as everyone else out there, acknowledged that it was not the most sensitive and effective approach to his decision. It gave everyone enough justification to ignore the fact that the telecast raised 2.5 million dollars for charity, and call LeBron's character into question.

Okay, enough about the life aspect of his decision. What impact will this decision have on the NBA landscape?

Does this make Cleveland a contender? No question. Are they as good as Miami would have been with him? Absolutely not - at least, not right now. Kyrie Irving and Andrew Wiggins are promising studs, but they are not better than Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh today.

This is going to be a huge test for LeBron in terms of his mentoring ability. He seems to be universally praised for his knowledge of the game and leadership. But he has yet to lead a team of young promising stars with him being the "old head." On Miami, he was very fortunate to have proven leaders such as Wade and Udonis Haslem (don't laugh - he has been the team's co-captain for several years now) to help him lead Miami to its four Finals appearances and two titles. But this new gig will be completely uncharted territory. I expect that he will do well, but I am not sure if it will lead to a championship in Cleveland quite yet. But if he does, LeBron's legacy will be something extremely unique.

Quick point on those who didn't expect LeBron to come back to Cleveland: everything that people conventionally thought would deter him from coming back home is being overblown completely. A couple quick myths below:

Myth 1: LeBron is still pissed at Dan Gilbert for the infamous Comic Sans tirade.
Fact: Yes, it irked LeBron. But LeBron irked Dan Gilbert and the entire Cleveland fan base. Considering all the feuds throughout the NBA that most of us don't know about, this was not nearly as big a deal as everyone made it out to be. The two of them were able to hash this out after LeBron made up his mind.

Myth 2: LeBron won't want to play for a rookie coach.
Fact: As we've all come to know, this is a player's league. If new coach David Blatt fails to win over his players, GM David Griffin will not hesitate pulling the plug on him. The current coach should have virtually NO impact on LeBron's decision. Other than Gregg Popovich, there is NO coach in the NBA who will have the final say over LeBron.

Myth 3: LeBron wants to win as many titles as his idol, Michael Jordan.
Fact: The number of championships he wins is no longer LeBron's biggest priority; securing a championship to his home state of Ohio serves as a far more powerful goal and would give him an incredibly unique legacy. He thinks that this is a far more difficult feat to accomplish, and no longer thinks the grind of multiple years of playing deep into June is important anymore. In 2010, he thought the Big Three era would allow him not to have to carry most of the load. In 2014, he realized that this approach would no longer be valid as the Heat were constructed. Now, he has a chance to lead a younger and fresher group and perhaps not log nearly as many minutes.

Overall, I think this is great for the NBA. The Eastern Conference has suddenly become balanced and appealing. The timing is fantastic, considering the conference had arguably its worst season in the history of the league. I think Miami is still the favorite in the East, but we'll get to that before the season starts. For now, let's enjoy the announcement and see how it plays out. On the whole, this development has the potential to become the greatest story in the history of sports.

LA Lakers 2011-12 Season Recap: Who's to blame?

2012-05-23T22:45:00.000-04:00

NOTE: This article will be published on Fansided's Saving the Skyhook blog, where I am currently contributing as a staff writer.

For the 2^nd straight year, the Los Angeles Lakers fell short in the Western Conference Semifinals. And also for the 2^nd straight year, the vast majority of fans and the media have labeled it as a disappointing season. Out of all the teams going fishing so far, I’ve never heard so many names being thrown around as possible scapegoats than the Lakers. People think they know who to blame (for the most part, Pau Gasol), but they don’t seem to fully understand how much adversity has affected this team’s chances of contending for a title.

All things considered, the Lakers have overachieved this season. Since the offseason, there was a series of team chemistry-crushing events that make me wonder why anybody expected them to win a championship. First, their offseason turmoil last summer was overshadowed by that of the Orlando Magic with the Dwight Howard debacle. After being swept by Dallas in last year’s playoffs, the Lakers did almost nothing to improve their team. In fact, they took about five steps back over the course of the season. Considering their lack of chemistry with this particular roster and style of play, current or incoming players that did not meet expectations, or uncertainty with the roster as well as coaching staff and general disarray, the Lakers should consider themselves lucky for getting this far.

That being said, let’s break down the top three reasons why the Lakers fell short this year.

1. Instability of the team caused by the front office and coaching staff

The quality of roster management of this team has been shaky at best, and the trade rumors didn’t help matters there. Star bigs Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum dealt were involved in trade rumors virtually all season. In fact, Gasol was almost shipped as part of the Chris Paul trade that David Stern eventually nixed – something that many seem to think would have made them serious title contenders had Stern not rejected it. Since last season, Bynum has been in trade rumors involving Dwight Howard. Clearly, the trades made (as well as the trade talk) affected the chemistry of the team. Even when Kobe Bryant pleaded to GM Mitch Kupchak to make up his mind on the trade rumors – particularly with Gasol – in an attempt to establish some stability for the team, Kupchak and the Laker management continued to keep the team in a state of limbo. Even Derek Fisher – a staple of the Lakers’ success over the years and one of Kobe’s best friends – was sent packing.

Kobe Bryant wasn't - and still isn't - sure how long
either Gasol or Bynum would be his teammates

A lack of cohesion can be blamed on the coaching staff, as well. On several segments of the ESPN/ABC studio show, I heard Magic Johnson make several critical comments about Mike Brown and his inability to make in-game adjustments. He emphasized the fact that this has hindered Brown’s playoff success in years past with Cleveland, as well. While I don’t disagree with that, people do need to understand how different his system is than that of his predecessor, Phil Jackson. The Lakers got very accustomed to Jackson’s triangle offense, and Kobe and Gasol absolutely flourished in that system that helped them get to three NBA Finals (and winning two of them). Talk about big shoes to fill. Adjusting to a new system takes time. But at the same time, Brown had to realize that he did not have the personnel to run his pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop schemes. Bynum and Gasol were vastly underutilized throughout the season, despite the two of them being a matchup advantage for the Lakers on a nightly basis.

2. Pau Gasol got fed up

Short term memory? Just remember how
valuable Gasol was to LA's 09 and 10 titles

As I mentioned, there has been a lot of misplaced finger pointing going on. One of the biggest scapegoats, of course, is Pau Gasol. Now, because of how badly people underestimate Gasol’s impact as a Laker, allow me to take the time to defend him. Since STEALING him from Memphis in 2009 (which was quite possibly the most lopsided and shadiest trade in NBA history), the Lakers have had a 70%+ winning percentage with Gasol. In their two championship runs in 2009 and 2010, he outplayed many of the league’s premier power forwards and centers in crucial playoff games (Amare Stoudemire, Kevin Garnett, Carlos Boozer, Dwight Howard, and Nene to name a few), even after being universally labeled “soft” in his first season as a Laker in 2007-08. He became arguably the best two-way big man in the league, and is one of the few top talents that don’t mind playing with Kobe (at least until now). Being in the shadow of Kobe, his impact has been vastly underrated, and is one of the most underrated true team players on a championship team that I can remember.

That being said, Gasol obviously had a subpar and inconsistent year. But before you go on blaming him, there are many reasons why Gasol’s play has suffered this season. First and foremost is the coaching situation, as described above. He thrives in the post – not running pick-and-roll offenses 20+ feet from the basket. The second major factor why Gasol is so jaded was the aforementioned nixed trade for CP3. You saw how Lamar Odom, who was in the same trade, reacted – he was distraught to the point where LA had to dump him to Dallas for basically nothing. Gasol, on the other hand, maintained his professionalism throughout the season, despite continuing to be in trade rumors and being called out by fans (and sometimes his teammates…and by his teammates, I mean Kobe – more on that below). When the trade for CP3 got nixed, I thought it was a blessing in disguise, as the Lakers front court depth would have suffered severely without him. In the end, why he constantly seems get blame and a lack of appreciation is beyond me.

After a few successful seasons together, you have to wonder
if Pau and Kobe's relationship has now deteroirated

Let’s go back to Kobe for a second. We all admire his drive and competitiveness, and the fact that he’s almost 34 and is still arguably somehow one of the top 5 players in the league (I was talking to a coworker, a Laker fan, about this: he’s only a year younger than KG and is the same age as Jermaine O’Neal – yet we consider the latter two to be much, much older). But this season, not unlike other seasons, he has made several team-dividing comments. When Kobe publicly criticized Gasol for his play in Game 4, TNT’s Charles Barkley couldn’t help but say that Kobe should have been the one to blame for his atrocious shot selection; the Lakers were up handily in that game, and Kobe went away from throwing the ball into Gasol and Bynum and instead took several contested long jumpers. In the waning moments of Game 5, even with the game out of hand, Kobe was expressing a constant visible frustration toward Gasol on several plays where it appeared the two were not on the same page. Let’s not forget that this is not the last time he has called out his teammates and refused to shoulder any blame – I will never forget when he completely quit on his team in two very important games: Game 7 vs. Phoenix in the first round of the 2006 playoffs, and Game 6 of the 2008 NBA Finals vs. Boston. As much praise as Kobe gets for his freakish durability, high level of play and intense competitiveness, instances like these can help one understand why many players don’t like playing with him. I think he’s been extremely overcritical of Gasol, and I don’t think Gasol wants to play another possession with Kobe.

Because of these issues Gasol has had this season with both the front office and Kobe, I think he’s gone this offseason. He’s sick of being in trade rumors, and he’s sick of being called out and blamed. And when he does get traded, hopefully he will be in a system more conducive to his strengths. Maybe then he will get the recognition as an elite player that he deserves.

3. The supporting cast was terrible

The issues went deeper than just the star players. The Lakers’ supporting cast was among the worst of the league over the season (their bench was DEAD last in scoring this season). Ron Artest, Steve Blake, Ramon Sessions, and Matt Barnes proved not to be effective enough to put the Lakers over the top. Changes to the roster over the course of the season proved not to be very constructive, either. Two vital pieces to their 09 and 10 championship runs – Lamar Odom and Derek Fisher – were no longer there. When they acquired Ramon Sessions from Cleveland, I was suspicious that he would provide the same impact as Derek Fisher. Early on, he seemed to be on track to proving me wrong (12.7 points, 6.2 assists, and 3.2 rebounds in 30.5 mins per game as a Laker). But after a horrible postseason (9.7 points, 3.6 assists, and 3.0 rebounds a game), the Lakers have to wonder if they should have got rid of Fisher, who is now in a position to win a title NOT in a Laker uniform.

Kobe had to get accustomed to playing without two of his best
role players in Lamar Odom (left) and Derek Fisher (right)

Before the playoffs even started, Artest didn’t help matters after earning a seven-game suspension for elbowing James Harden into a concussion. His absence made the Lakers already-thin bench even worse, and was a big reason why LA even struggled closing out Denver in the first round. In my opinion, they were very fortunate to even advance past them; if Blake didn’t catch fire in Game 7, the Lakers could have gone home much earlier. Other than Jordan Hill, the Laker role players were a disappointment.

What should the Lakers do?

With Kobe making $30 million next year, there is not much that LA can do in free agency. Their best move would be to throw Bynum and whoever else Orlando wants (other than Kobe) for Dwight Howard. But then, you would have to look at the coaching situation. If LA gets Howard, is Mike Brown the right coach for them? He failed to find ways to get two of the league’s best post players to get consistent touches. Howard had issues with his Orlando teammates for not getting the ball enough; how do you think he will like Brown’s offensive schemes?

Some have gone as far as to say the Lakers should consider amnesty’ing Kobe. As much as I blame him for having an adverse psychological affect on his teammates, I still think waiving him is an extreme. Of all players on the team, he is the one lock to remain in a Laker uniform.

I know this is never gonna happen, but LA and Orlando should make the first ever head coach trade. I honestly think both teams would be better off.

Summary

Ultimately, the Lakers’ failures have been a result of a lack of chemistry – from the front office to the coaches, and to the players as well. The fact that they were a few breaks away from possibly being in a position to make the Conference Finals is nothing short of amazing. I expect a major overhaul over the offseason, with Kobe being the lone guaranteed Laker next season.

After Season-Long Dwightmare, Stan Van Gundy Strikes Back

2012-04-06T00:04:00.003-04:00

NOTE: This article will be published on Fansided's Saving the Skyhook blog, where I am currently contributing as a staff writer.

If you thought the Dwight Howard drama came to an end after the trade deadline passed, think again. After a mere few weeks passed, we saw yet another episode unveil in the Orlando Magic soap opera. Once again, the media frenzy is surrounding the Magic – again. On Thursday morning, Coach Stan Van Gundy revealed to the media that he was told that Howard asked Magic management to fire him. When asked whether his coach was speaking the truth, Howard – who has been heavily criticized all season long –made himself look even more foolish in his subsequent actions and words in denial of SVG’s accusations. In one fell swoop, this created the most egregiously awkward press conference I can remember to date (if you have a few minutes, it’s worth watching the whole thing – you’ll get a good laugh).

Thursday morning's press conference had Stan Van Gundy (left)
and Dwight Howard (right) in a bizzare and awkward situation

Before offering my opinion on Howard, I will say this: ESPN’s David Thorpe offered some very perceptive words about Dwight Howard on Thursday, saying that Howard “is really just like so many young stars in all careers — Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, Steve Jobs, LeBron James and Kobe Bryant. Young men with enormous talent and a promising future, forced to grow up faster than they are prepared to do. Mistakes in judgment are made, and sometimes emotions ugly things up for a while. But I am sure that over time things will get better for him as he matures.”

While it’s so easy for all of us outsiders to criticize Dwight, we do tend to overlook what Thorpe pointed out: he’s still a young 26-year old kid. We just tend to ignore that because, like many lines of work, the NBA is another place that forces you to mature faster than you can. That’s why Howard has been handling all of this so poorly – even though we have high expectations, maturity wise, for a team’s franchise player, being in a position to flex power and leverage can have dire consequences for an immature person. So, while I am just as guilty as anyone of no longer giving Howard any benefit of the doubt, we do have to give him a chance to grow up after this experience.

Okay, enough of playing devil’s advocate. That being said…

Howard simply cannot be trusted. He has a disturbing tendency to throw everyone else around him – players, coaches, GMs, what have you – under the bus. And as we found out before the trade deadline, he is extraordinarily flaky. After Thursday night’s blowout loss to the Knicks (at HOME, no less), where Howard had a poor game (8 points, 8 rebounds, and was scoreless at the half), he claimed he was trying to get back in a rhythm after returning from injury - but still putting in max effort for his team. Who’s BSing now? If I’m a GM, I’d be weary of a guy who has a history of calling out his teammates for not being good enough and his coach for being too negative. There are extenuating circumstances when a player has a right to complain to upper management about their coaching situation (e.g. Magic Johnson with Paul Westhead), but this is certainly not one of them.

After Dwight’s series of bad decision making, does LeBron James’ “Decision” look that bad anymore? I don’t think it does. Unlike LeBron, Howard has caused several uproars and imploded the team before even becoming a free agent. Yes, I think Howard has made people hate LeBron a little less – and that in itself is no small feat.

Much of the hatred toward LeBron for his "Decision"
has been shifting towards Dwight Howard

Van Gundy has taken a lot of criticism as well – especially for revealing a supposedly private conversation with management to the media. But if you were Van Gundy, would you WANT to keep quiet and continue to be a scapegoat in defense of a guy who’s trying to get you fired? He has kept pretty quiet in the midst of all the turmoil for this long. After Howard continued his subversive antics, you can’t blame SVG for saying what he said. Let’s not side with the guy who – let’s not forget – is still handcuffing the organization by refusing to commit to them long term. Why would GM Otis Smith take his advice on personnel decisions?

So what’s next for Van Gundy, Howard, and Orlando?

Don't expect many more exchanges between Van Gundy and Howard

I think Stan is going to resign. Whether he’s lost the entire team is up for debate, as we’re not entirely sure if the rest of the team has any qualms with Van Gundy the same way Dwight evidently has. If Stan has lost the team, then so has Howard; he has isolated himself by his flakiness and the constant criticism of everyone else around him. The fact that they’ve had the 3^rd-best record in the East for most of the season is a miracle – and a testament to Van Gundy, not Howard. But either way, there’s no way Van Gundy can keep this up for much longer. If they think they can suck it up the rest of the season, they’re kidding themselves.

Analyzing the Effect of Trade Rumors on NBA Stars

2012-03-11T18:52:00.000-04:00

Note: this article will be published on FanSided's Saving the Skyhook blog.

With the March 15^th NBA trade deadline looming, many players league-wide are wondering what jersey they are going to don by week’s end. Although it’s hard for the average sports fan to feel sympathy for multi-millionaire athletes dealing with uncertain futures, you have to wonder just how much the psyche of these players are being affected by swirling trade rumors. One would think that the growing shroud of uncertainty constantly hanging over them has to wear on them in one way or another – both on and off the court.

We’ve seen several high-profile players being shopped around over the last few years. This season has been no different; rumors involving Dwight Howard Rajon Rondo, and Pau Gasol have been under the most scrutiny. How have they been personally handling these rumors? And what can we expect from them going forward after the trade deadline this Thursday?

Gasol (left) and Rondo (right) have been saying all the right things,
but how are they really handling the constant trade rumors?

We recently heard Kobe Bryant stick up for his teammate Gasol by calling out GM Mitch Kupchak and the Lakers’ management. He was publicly trying to relay just how difficult it is for Gasol (or any player being shopped around) to put his whole heart into playing for a team that’s actively trying to trade him. Due to the sensitive nature of trade rumors and the private manner in which teams address them to the media, we have a relatively limited idea of how much of an effect they have on the implicated players. We just saw the Lakers management tell their players to cut the external chatter short, in an attempt to minimize the drama caused from trade rumors. So unless players publicly speak about their feelings, our opportunities to gauge their psyche are limited. For that reason, the performance of these players in the midst of trade rumors may be our best way to make an assessment.

Now, let’s examine a sample of prominent players that were involved in trade rumors and blockbuster trades over the last 10 seasons. Whether these players were driving the trade talks themselves, or their respective teams put players on the trading block against their will, here are some of the more notable cases below. The blocks highlighted in green denote a 10% improvement after the trade, while the red blocks indicate at least a 10% decline in the respective stats as shown. For better resolution quality, please click on the figure. Special thanks to ESPN TrueHoop blogger Ian Levy of Hickory High, who was a great help in putting these numbers together.

If you go by a case-by-case basis, some players on this list wanted to be traded, and some didn’t. And some, well, could have cared less. Obviously, every player’s situation was different, and many variables factored into each player’s performance. Nonetheless, the before/after comparisons are something very interesting to look at in light of Kobe Bryant’s aforementioned assessment on the impact of trade rumor drama.

Vince Carter made the biggest improvement of any star traded in the last ten years

Bar none, Vince Carter gained the single-most benefit from the resolution of his situation after being traded from Toronto to New Jersey – and his gargantuan improvement shown in these stats reflect that. But as he admitted, this was largely attributed to his half-hearted effort during his waning days in Toronto. More than any star player in the last decade, Vince’s performance was directly correlated to how motivated he was. In Toronto, he publicly criticized Raptors management for failing to put together enough talent around him to build a contending team. When traded to New Jersey, he did all the things he failed to do during his last couple years in Toronto: attacking the basket, playing some defense, and just putting in more effort overall. Playing alongside Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson was a huge motivator for him, as he spent years being the lone star in Toronto. All of this led to a vast improvement in nearly every statistical category. Of course, this was all short-lived, and Carter was not always engaged in subsequent years to date. To learn about his ups and downs some more, take a look at my in-depth take on his career as a whole, which tries to explain his sporadic effort over the years.

C-Webb (right) did not find greener pastures in Philly
playing alongside AI (left)

In contrast to Vince’s case, some players didn't exactly benefit from being traded. Of everyone listed here, Chris Webber seems to be the one who suffered the most from changing jerseys. Of course, injuries played into his decline (and eventual retirement) more than anything. Nonetheless, then-Sixers GM Billy King’s experiment of pairing him up with Allen Iverson was obviously a failiure – as the Sixers only managed to obtain a 7^th seed and only win a single playoff game that season. But given Webber’s and Iverson’s respective situations at the time – as two perennial All-Stars yet to win a title – both felt it was an experiment worth attempting. I’m not entirely sure if Chris Webber was forcing his way out of Sacramento the same year he was traded, even though he did express a desire to leave before he became a free agent in 2001. But I suspect that his decline was due to a combination of his injuries, his lack of cohesion with Iverson, and the realization that he had a pretty damn good team in Sacramento compared to his new team in Philly.

Dwight Howard has his eyes set elsewhere,
but is still playing well in Orlando

Unlike Rondo and Gasol, we know Dwight Howard has publicly requested to be traded. Since he has been under the most scrutiny as far as trade rumors are concerned, let’s compare his situation to other superstar players demanding a trade in years past: Shaq, Allen Iverson, Ron Artest (BTW, I still refuse to call him by his new name), and Carmelo Anthony. Shaq showed slightly greater improvement and efficiency after being traded, which was to be expected after a bad situation (the most memorable part being his feud with Kobe Bryant) got worse in LA prior to being traded. But of course, pairing up with the young but highly-gifted Dwyane Wade had something to do with that. Iverson and Artest welcomed a change of scenery, but their +’s and –‘s in their stat comparisons were a relative wash; Iverson’s shot attempts went down, but he had to get used to having a high-volume shooting teammate in Melo. Years later, Melo benefited from more shot attempts being in Mike D’Antoni’s system, but overall has been playing at about the same level since the trade. So in the end, the superstars we’ve seen publicly demand a trade have neither improved nor regressed on a significant level.

While we don’t see too much of a distinct pattern (at least, not to the same degree as with Vince Carter and Chris Webber) with most of the players on this list – at least in terms of individual performance – this analysis does show that there is some precedence to the situations of Howard, Gasol, and Rondo. In terms of a prediction, it’s tough to see any of them improving from their already-solid productivity with their current teams. All three have been able to put up stellar numbers regularly, but they have all expressed disdain over the lack of resolution on their respective situations. Their individual performances have not suffered, but their uncertain futures have had an effect on the success of their teams as a whole. We saw the 2010-11 Nuggets improve significantly after Melo’s departure, even with Melo maintaining his productivity in Denver. So while trades and trade rumors do not have a huge overall effect on individual performance (with a few exceptions), teams as a whole are put at ease upon resolution of the trade talk.

Live diary on a busy night of NBA League Pass

2012-02-15T22:43:00.002-05:00

Since the condensed NBA season has allowed me to consume my evenings watching several games for hours on end, I’m going to try to capture random thoughts I have for all of the teams playing in tonight’s games.

San Antonio Spurs @ Toronto Raptors

Spurs: I’m 50/50 with my take on the Spurs. First, I said early on in the season that no one should sleep on them yet – and now they are the West’s 2^nd best team at the moment. With the Western Conference being up for grabs, I think they have potential to make the Conference Finals this year. I was wrong about one thing, though: Tony Parker should have been on my All-Star reserves list. He absolutely deserves to be there. He is the main reason the Spurs find themselves as 2^nd in the West.

Raptors: As the first team that the god-awful Wizards beat this season (after Washington started 0-8), Toronto was supposed to be awful. Well, I’ve paid close attention to them in the last week or so, and they’re really not that bad. Their point guard, Jose Calderon, is an above-average playmaker, averaging 8.7 assists per game; he’s 4^th in the NBA behind Nash, Rondo, and Paul – not too shabby.

The unfortunate thing about Toronto is that they’re the epitome of talented-but-bad team that always finds ways to lose. Against the Lakers the other night, they blew a 4-point lead and committed a crucial 5-second violation in the final seconds. Monday night, they were victims of Linsanity. And at this time of writing, they’re about to lose a close one to the Spurs. They play well for about 40-45 minutes, but commit silly mistakes toward the end of games. This is a team that badly needs veteran leadership and closers to contend – but I don’t see that happening anytime soon.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Orlando Magic

76ers: I can’t quite figure this team out. Sometimes they look like legitimate contenders, and other times they fall flat. Tonight was a good example of the latter, getting their butts kicked by a highly dysfunctional Magic team. This is the problem with a team that has more than two or three go-to guys; it’s hard to get a team rhythm when five or six guys have to get in a groove for the team to be successful. It works on nights when the ball is moving well, but it’s hard to do when you’re sluggish overall. Lou Williams looks like the team’s best player (especially in the clutch), but it’s not by a wide margin.

Magic: Dwight continues to pad his stats on his emotionally detached campaign with this team. But the guy who’s really impressed everyone is Ryan Anderson, who scored 27 points in this game. Btw, since the All-Star 3-point shootout contestants were announced, I can’t decide who I’m going to pick to win it. But Anderson definitely has a great chance – a guy who doesn’t use a lot of energy to get his shots up, his shooting stroke might be built to win such an event. But the shootout is one of the least predictable events, unless Steve Kerr or Larry Bird are participating. Anyway, I think the shootout will come down to him or Anthony Morrow of the Nets.

Sacramento Kings @ New York Knicks

Kings: As J.M. Poulard (ESPN Truehoop Warriors writer) says, this team is a playground unit masquerading as an NBA team. Walt Clyde Frazier, who’s calling the Knicks broadcast, can’t help but express relief on the Knicks finally being on the favorable end of a blowout. That goes to show just how terrible Sacramento is – especially on the road. Much like the Raptors, they have talent, but not the veteran leadership to help cultivate the roster.

Knicks: Ok..impossible not to mention Jeremy Lin in this paragraph, right? I’ll keep this short since everyone in the sports world has beat this to death: the team is playing well – will be very, very interesting when Melo gets back. Melo is saying all the right things now – but the minute he holds the ball on isolation plays for more than 2 seconds, boos will start coming down on him from the Garden. Wondering when he’s coming back? Don’t worry, there will be plenty of media attention on this.

Detroit Pistons @ Boston Celtics

Pistons: Surprisingly playing well tonight on the road, but it may be because no one in Boston bothered to attend this game. For a team that lacks talent, they still play hard.

Quick side note: Ben Wallace announced he’s retiring at season’s end, and is fittingly finishing the season in a Detroit jersey. The closest precedence to Jeremy Lin, he was undrafted out of Virginia Union and blossomed into a defensive beast for several years on a very good team. He will get serious consideration for the Hall of Fame. I don’t think he should, but a dominant defensive player will always get the benefit of the doubt.

Celtics: Rondo is back, but the Celtics offense is not. For a pass-first point guard, Rondo sure has been scoring a lot lately – including a career high 32-point game on Sunday vs. Chicago. They’re about to embark on a 5-game road trip, so maybe they’re just coasting in preparation for that. They did sit KG, after all.

Memphis Grizzlies @ New Jersey Nets

Grizzlies: Man, this team can’t wait until Zach Randolph comes back from a torn MCL (probably after the All-Star break). Still, even without him they’re beating the teams they should beat – such as the Nets tonight. My only complaint with them is to get rid of the gnarly gold and green retro jerseys – it’s the only thing that makes me not want to watch them.

Nets: Typical New Jersey game – Deron Williams gets a double double (26 pts, 11 assists), everyone else plays mediocre, and the Nets come up short. Let’s hope Brook Lopez gets back from a broken foot injury as soon as possible, so that we don’t have too many terrible teams in the East. I mean, look at the list: New Jersey, Washington, Charlotte, Detroit, Toronto – the list seems to be growing. Good thing Cleveland and New York seem to be decent now, otherwise the “Leastern” conference jokes would have ran rampant once again.

And speaking of decent Eastern Conference teams..

Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Pacers: Looked to still be shell-shocked after getting streamrolled by Miami the other night. This no-show against Cleveland is their 5^th straight loss, and need to snap out of this funk as soon as they can. With upcoming games against New Jersey, Charlotte, and New Orleans, I think they will.

Cavaliers: They managed to play well in Kyrie Irving’s first game back after sitting out with a concussion. News flash – LeBron is returning to Cleveland to play this team on Friday. Hopefully, the Cavs can actually be competitive against him this year.

Charlotte Bobcats @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Bobcats: Ugh – just a god-AWFUL team. With a shortened season, they might not get past single digits in the win column over the entire season. One of their biggest disappointments is the lackluster play of Tyrus Thomas. When he was drafted by Chicago a few years ago, he had tremendous upside. Now, I don’t think the Bulls miss him much. I guess owner Michael Jordan still wishes there was still a lockout.

Timberwolves: Kevin Love is a BEAST. I mean, the guy gets more rebounds in games than people can in practice in a gym by themselves. He’s putting up numbers that Wilt Chamberlain used to put up in the 60s. And what some people don’t know is that he can shoot the lights out – which is why he was also invited this year’s All-Star 3-point shootout.

New Orleans Hornets @ Milwaukee Bucks

Hornets: Poor Hornets. David Stern really screwed the pooch on this one. First they pull of a blockbuster trade to get Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, AND Lamar Odom out of unloading Chris Paul. Then, Stern rescinds the trade, and they get Eric Gordon, Al Farooq Aminu, and a draft pick from Minnesota. Now, Gordon will basically miss the entire season, and Minnesota’s draft pick will not be as high as they originally thought (since the Wolves are playing well). Stern not only is showing incompetence as a commissioner, but looks like a terrible team owner as well.

Bucks: Recently, Brandon Jennings said he’s looking into the possibility of signing with a bigger market team. Why would he say that now, to the team that made him a lottery pick even after a year of playing terribly abroad? Is that a slap to the face of the franchise or what? He’s going to be a restricted free agent in the summer, so any offer he gets this year could be matched by the Bucks. Still, with the new CBA, players get rewarded for staying with the teams that drafted them. So, only time will tell if he actually leaves. Such is the life for a small market team.

OKC Thunder @ Houston Rockets

Thunder: As good as they are, I’m questioning whether this team is a shoe-in to the Finals this year. First, they only have three guys (Durant, Westbrook, Harden) who can create shots for themselves and teammates. Second, they seem to be a jump-shooting team; Ibaka and Perkins don’t really have a low post game, and neither do any of their perimeter players. Also, losing backup point guard Eric Maynor for the season hurts them more than people think. If they don’t address these issues, I can see teams like Dallas and the Lakers giving them fits in the postseason.

Rockets: This team could upset someone in the first round of the playoffs. In addition to keeping Martin and Scola, they have Kyle Lowry – the Rockets’ daily triple-double threat and an All-Star caliber player. They’re my early favorite to earn the label “The Team No One Wants to Face in the First Round.”

Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks

Nuggets: Much like Indiana and Philadelphia, Denver is a decent team that’s been struggling lately. After playing Dallas tonight, they are going to go through a brutal stretch in their schedule. Take a look at their next eight games: Memphis, OKC, Minnesota, LA Clippers, San Antonio, and Portland, Houston, then again San Antonio. For a team that’s struggling and could use some easy wins these days, that’s rough. They could really use Gallo right now.

Mavericks: With Dirk rounding into shape, this team is starting to look like an elite contender again. If only Lamar Odom can snap out of his season-long funk, I still think they have a great chance of defending their Western Conference title.

Atlanta Hawks @ Phoenix Suns

Hawks: Still baffled by the snubbing of Josh Smith from the All-Star team. What’s it going to take for this guy to make it? Hopefully, Melo sits out the All-Star game and Smith takes his place.

Suns: Somehow, Steve Nash continues to play with remarkable efficiency and make his teammates better, even at age 38. Yes, even guys like Jared Dudley, Grant Hill, Channing Frye, and Marcin Gortat are all beneficiaries of Nash’s brilliant playmaking. Let’s try to admire Nash as much as we can before his inevitable departure from the game.

Portland Trailblazers @ Golden State Warriors

Blazers: After they were defeated handily by Washington at HOME last night, I’m not sure if this is a dangerous team anymore. I know the Wizards have been playing surprisingly well lately, but still. With the West being as loaded as it is, they need to address their issues in their backcourt. I refer, of course, to guards Ray Felton and Wesley Matthews. They’ve been subject to widespread criticism lately, and that’s only multiplied since their double-OT loss to Dallas on Saturday.

Warriors: In my recent battle with insomnia, I’ve been watching the Warriors quite frequently even though their games are always on really late. And I gotta say, I am very impressed with what first-time head coach Mark Jackson is doing. He has the team playing pretty well. The one major flaw this team has, though, is their lack of rebounding. They are 30^th in the NBA, and it clearly hampers their ability to win close games. On paper, they’re one of the more talented teams in the league. But if they can’t rebound, they won’t even be a .500 team.

Washington Wizards @ Los Angeles Clippers

Is this even worth talking about? I’m tired..

Dwight Howard at it again

2012-02-13T18:35:00.000-05:00

Since my last post about him, Dwight Howard is continuing to criticize his team, even in come-from-behind victories. Take a read..

Howard must learn to share Magic spotlight

'via Blog this'

Letting Linsanity Sink In

2012-02-11T16:25:00.001-05:00

There are two major reasons why we love to watch sports. First, we admire the display of the world’s best athletes competing at the highest level. The second – and much more powerful and impactful reason – is that we love seeing success stories, especially when the cards are stacked against them from happening. As a whole, fans naturally root for the underdog and get caught up in the wave of Cinderella stories. Much of the hardcore enthusiasm and pride instilled in sports fans comes from the inspiration and hope that a rare phenomenon gives them.

In the last week, we have been witnessing one of these phenomenons, the likes of which we’ve never seen before. And it just so happens to be occurring within one of the most storied franchises. I’m speaking, of course, of the one and only New York Knicks point guard Jeremy Lin. In the last four games without “superstars” (yes, I’ll keep calling them that) Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire (Melo with a sore groin, and Amare coping with his brother’s untimely death), the Knicks have gone 4-0 – in large part due to Lin coming out of nowhere to lead his team to convincing victories over New Jersey, Utah, Washington, and the Lakers. In those 4 games, Lin’s point/assist log looks like this: 25/7 vs. NJ, 28/8 vs. Utah, 23/10 at Washington (against last year’s No. 1 draft pick John Wall, no less), and a whopping 38/7 against Kobe and the Lakers. With each game, Lin is gaining tremendous confidence, and has electrified the Garden.

Blowing by defenses left and right, Jeremy Lin has taken the sports
world by storm, and has the Knicks finally playing winning basketball

Since sneaking in to the NBA after 4 successful years at Harvard,
Jeremy Lin has gone relatively unnoticed by teams league-wide

Stats aside, this hasn’t been a good story; it’s been a GREAT story. After going undrafted out of Harvard, and between bouncing around teams in NBA and spending time in the D-League, this guy wasn’t on ANYONE’s radar. Before Tuesday – when his contract became guaranteed – he was sleeping on his brother’s couch at night to save money. Even Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey couldn’t help but praise the guy and express regret for not giving him a chance. Of all the point guards on the Knicks roster – Baron Davis, Iman Shumpert, and Mike Bibby – who would have ever thought that Lin would be the answer as the floor general?

These days, everyone in the sports world is asking if Lin’s remarkable run can be sustained, and whether he’s actually for real or just a one-week wonder. I’ll put my answer simply: One great game is an aberration. Two is a trend. Three is reality. And four? Well, considering the competition and the spotlight, his performance is no fluke. Plain and simple - the guy can play. He's constantly beating guys like Deron Williams and John Wall off the dribble. Although turnover-prone so far in his first few games playing big minutes, his playmaking ability is top-notch. And hey, he can dunk! To put it in perspective, he's SECOND in PER - right behind freaking LeBron! How good can he be? It's tough to tell; I'm not going to say he's All-Star material, but I would say he could be a solid backup point guard on a contending team. But more importantly, he needs to be in the right system to be effective. Even with his new-found confidence, I think the quality of his play is always going to be dependent on the team and playing style.

Here’s a crazy thought: what if Lin keeps this up through the rest of the season? Imagine this scenario if Linsanity continues: he’ll land a big contract over the off-season after teams commence on a bidding war for him. Next season, he’ll be put on the All-Star ballot. If the Lin bandwagon multiplies by then, fans WILL vote for him - especially from China and Taiwan. While still pretty crazy and farfetched, Lin being voted as a 2013 NBA All-Star starting guard is not completely beyond the realm of possibility. I mean, we all remember how many All-Star votes Yao Ming got – and even Yi Jianlian almost got voted in when he was put on the ballot a few years ago. But Yi was not causing nearly the stir that Lin is now. How crazy would that be?

Carmelo Anthony's ball-holding ways will be tough to mix
with Jeremy Lin's free-flowing pick-and-roll offensive style

Okay, now that I have gotten all the praise out of the way – time to play Devil’s Advocate. Realistically, the Knicks are still not a winning team. Before Linsanity started, New York was off to a disappointing 8-15 start in a year they had higher expectations. Mike D’Antoni was on the hot seat, and Melo and Amare’s superstardom has come into question (and rightfully so). So while they are having success without those two, you have to wonder how their return will impact the team. As I’ve beat to death over and over, Melo and Amare happen to be two gifted scorers with the same team-killing deficiencies. Defensively, they are two of the worst starting forwards in the league. On offense, the two scoring juggernauts and iso-happy games severely penalize the team’s overall ball movement. Without them, Lin and the Knicks have been primarily running pick-and-roll plays, where Lin has been incredibly effective. In that scheme, there has been a free flowing offense that we are used to seeing from D’Antoni-led teams. But when Melo and Amare return, I just can’t see them letting Lin dictate the offense – especially Melo, who has never taken kindly to the idea of being a second fiddle. Over his entire career, he has never given me any reason to believe that he can adjust for the betterment of the team – at least not yet. And if Melo continues dominating the ball, Lin's play might suffer.The subsequent destruction of chemistry is my biggest fear for the Knicks as a team, in the aftermath of Linsanity.

So if this fear is realized, and the Knicks struggle integrating his two stars with Lin, what does D’Antoni do? Does he put his foot down and tell the team that Lin will be the team’s primary playmaker, and ask his two stars to put their egos aside? Can he somehow integrate Melo and Amare’s scoring prowess without adversely affecting the team’s successful style of play lately? Tyson Chandler has really stepped it up on both ends of the court, but will he keep it up? I don’t see any positives from this happening, but for the sake of Knicks fans, I really hope I’m wrong. Knicks fans have experienced far, far, far more disappointments and letdowns than success throughout their lifetime, so hopefully this can turn around their fortunes on a more permanent basis. They are long overdue for some optimism in the team.

Regardless of this particular team’s success, I think Lin has turned his own career around and will never again have to worry about finding a place to crash. Whether or not he can sustain this run, he has instantly impacted the league and inspired fans worldwide in a way that few ever have before. As fans, let’s not question him and just enjoy the ride while it lasts.

My 2012 NBA All-Star Reserves

2012-02-02T22:15:00.000-05:00

The fan voting has ended and the 2012 starters for the NBA All-Star Game have been announced. Now it’s time to ponder who should fill out the remaining rosters to play at the big game. This is one of the weirder years to make such picks, with the shortened season being a huge factor. With only a month of basketball to base our All-Star picks, players sitting out due to injury will have a huge disadvantage. And without much of a training camp, most of the league has been sluggish over the first month of the season – resulting in a relatively poor quality of play overall so far. So, a lot of my picks will have shaky logic behind them. I realize this is hard to read, so click on the chart to pull up a better view.

What do I think of the fans’ selection of the starting lineup?

The fans did OK here for both teams, with the exception of voting Carmelo Anthony as the starting forward for the Eastern Conference. With the Knicks struggling and currently out of the playoff picture, Anthony deserves some blame for the disappointing start. There are many players over the years I can think of off the top of my head – e.g. Stephon Marbury, Steve Francis, Allen Iverson – who are considered top-tier players and perennial All-Stars, but whose teams get better after they leave. Those are exactly the kind of players that can be considered overrated, or at least the players whose talents don’t translate to winning team basketball. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: Melo is no exception as one of these players, as evidenced by Denver’s success and New York’s woes. As I’ve said repeatedly, I believe both Melo and his teammate Amare Stoudemire are stars only by name, not by deed. They would be much better served as 3^rd or 4^th options on a team behind true stars that know how to facilitate their teams, where they can afford to be just scorers and not facilitators.

Chris Bosh has stepped it up during his second season
in a Heat uniform

So if not Melo, who should have been picked instead? Easy: Chris Bosh. He has been on an absolute tear this season, setting out to prove that there really is a Big Three in Miami. Dwyane Wade has battled injuries all year, but Miami has gone 8-1 in the games in his absence – in large part due to Bosh’s much-improved play. The question of whether he can be an effective third wheel still remains, but there’s no question he’s worthy of a spot on the All-Star team.

The rest of the starters on both teams are spot on, although I would have been OK with Russell Westbrook getting the nod over Chris Paul as the starting guard out West. Then again, CP3 has been filling up the stat sheets lately and has propelled his Clippers to 2^nd best in the West. His latest string of games has been particularly impressive, helping his team handily defeat the Thunder at home, and getting tough road wins against Denver and Utah (no small feat). They are an elite team, and their franchise fortune-turning play is well deserving of having two All-Star starters represent them.

MY RESERVE PICKS

Key Omissions due to Injury:

Rajon Rondo (Boston), Luol Deng (Chicago), Manu Ginobili (San Antonio)

Eastern Conference

We've seen plenty of J-Smoove highlights -
but somehow no All-Star appearances

Since Bosh should be starting, he should be a lock for a reserve spot. The Hawks have been playing great basketball despite losing Al Horford for the season, and Joe Johnson and Josh Smith have both been the main reasons why. Oddly enough, Smith has NEVER been selected as an All-Star, but I can’t see coaches snubbing him this year. Even without Horford, I think the Hawks are good enough to give Miami or Chicago (depending on the seeding) a run for their money in the 2^nd round of this year’s playoffs. In any case, Johnson and Smith should both make the team.

As I do every year, I base my picks off of teams who are winning. Since Philadelphia and Indiana have played winning basketball this year, they absolutely must have some All-Star representation. Jrue Holiday has been the key to the 76ers’ great start; he has been orchestrating an offense responsible for getting SIX players averaging double figures in points, with Evan Turner (9.8) and Jodie Meeks (9.0) not far behind. He and Andre Iguodala have been the primary playmakers for this team, averaging 9.7 assists between them. I’m not sure if anyone had Philly winning the Atlantic Division this year, but they’re going to win it by a long shot.

The 76ers have become the league's most surprising team this season

A broken nose hasn't stopped Roy Hibbert from
becoming one of the league's elite bigs

For Indiana, Roy Hibbert has become a beast in the paint and has added another dimension to the Pacers’ offensive and defensive schemes. He’s displayed his fair share of toughness as well, especially against the Lakers – where he broke his nose and played through it to help the Pacers to get a road win in LA.

It’s funny seeing Danny Granger and Iguodala as my wild cards, because of how similar their situations have been in recent years. Neither of their teams has been particularly good in years past, but the two of them have been steady leaders for their squads for a few years now. Two of the most dynamic and athletic wing players in the league, they have had plenty of help this particular season from their respective supporting casts – and it has translated to their teams’ success.

Western Conference

Aldridge is long overdue for an All-Star bid

After declaring Westbrook a shoe-in, this is where things get tough. Kevin Love has arguably become the best power forward in the league (how many PF’s have ever averaged 25 points and 15 rebounds?), so you can’t exclude him. Besides, Larry Bird has been craving for white superstars in the NBA - you gotta appease the Legend. Anyway, let’s keep going: LaMarcus Aldridge was the biggest snub last season, so I don’t think coaches will leave him off the team this time around. Rudy Gay has filled in admirably for the Grizzlies after Zach Randolph went down, so he is deserving of a first-time All-Star bid as well.

Nene is one of Denver's
many solid pieces

So after rewarding players who are long overdue, let’s try to reward the teams that are winning – like the third-place Nuggets. Denver is a team much like Philadelphia and Indiana – one without a true superstar, but full of very good players. Still, you have to reward them with at least one All-Star. I picked Nene, since there are not many other very good Centers in the West (or the league, for that matter). As much of a bad rap as Dallas has gotten for their slow start, they are still sitting in 4^th place overall in the West. For that reason, I just can’t get myself to deny Dirk an All-Star bid – even though he’s played well below his potential and has missed several games due to injury.

This leaves one more spot, which should go to someone from either Utah or San Antonio. Since Manu Ginobili, the Spurs’ leading scorer, has been hit with injuries all season, I can’t pick him. Utah, though, has exceeded everyone’s expectations. Their two bigs – Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson – have both been a load for opposing front courts. So since I can’t decide which one of them should get the bid, I’ll say that they are both equally deserving. I hate how shaky my logic has been for this, but there are going to be some players in the West that are bound to get snubbed.

The Dwight Predicament

2012-02-01T12:13:00.002-05:00

As the Orlando Magic’s losing culture is growing stronger by the day, everyone league-wide is wondering the same thing: is it time to trade the franchise player? This question is consuming the entirety of Orlando Magic GM Otis Smith’s thoughts, as the NBA community is awaiting his next move in the Dwight Howard trade rumor saga. A situation that’s gone from bad to worse, this is a team that needs answers. And fast.

What is going on with the Magic? Are the trade rumors hurting the team that much?

Things have worsened exponentially over the last week or so. It started last week with a humiliating blow-out loss to a depleted Boston Celtic team without Rajon Rondo or Ray Allen, and managed to score only 56 points. Then a few days later, they completely melted down and blew a 27-point 1st half lead against the very same depleted Celtic team. In case anyone wondered if this would carry over against one of the worst teams of the league, New Orleans routed them 93-67 on Friday. Sunday night, they got blown out at home by Indiana by 21. And in their attempt to reverse their disappearing act the next night, they came up short against Philly.

All Dwight can think about is when - not if - he's leaving Central Florida

All teams go through dry spells. But given the magnitude of defeats and circumstances surrounding the team, it’s hard not to attribute these struggles to Howard’s swirling trade rumors. After the aforementioned blowout loss to the Hornets, Howard bashed his teammates and their lack of effort. He’s been known to call out his teammates to the press before, but this time it’s become evident that his peers have given up on him. He's also publicly criticized head coach Stan Van Gundy's abrasive coaching style. That’s why, as a superstar, asking for a trade puts you in a TERRIBLE spot. An irreversible chain of events occurs and the team starts to self-destruct. First, your teammates and coaching staff begin to question your commitment and loyalty. Once that happens, you are no longer in a position to call out your team in hopes for a positive result. In their eyes, they’re thinking, ‘what’s the point of giving your all for a guy who wants to leave anyway?’

We’ve seen precedence before of a lame duck superstar in a contract year. Just to avoid bringing up painful memories for Magic fans of losing Shaq (and better yet, to pick a more recent example), Orlando’s situation is mirroring that of the Denver Nuggets involving Carmelo Anthony last season; Melo demanded a trade at the beginning of the 2010-11 season and, after months of speculation and indecision on the part of Nuggets management, he finagled his way to New York.

Much like Dwight today, Melo had to address
trade rumors on a daily basis last season

Let’s compare the similarities between this year’s Magic and last year’s Nuggets. While Melo was still a Nugget during the first half of the season, the team chemistry was horrific. Yes the team was still winning some games, but deep down, his teammates knew he wanted to leave. They knew his heart wasn’t in it. They knew Melo was playing only to pad his stats and sell himself to the Knicks. I’ve never seen a player so emotionally detached from a team – until now with Dwight. Much like Melo last season, Dwight’s body language has been visibly terrible since the start of training camp. Even though he’s still putting up decent numbers, you can tell his heart is not in the game. And you can tell his teammates have quit on him.

But why is Dwight so hell bent on leaving Orlando? They really aren’t that bad – they’re only 3 years removed from an NBA Finals appearance…

From a pure basketball standpoint (turmoil aside), the Magic
aren't too many pieces away from returning to the Finals

I honestly don’t know, and I don’t think anybody really does. Despite being only 3 seasons removed from an Eastern Conference title, Howard feels change of scenery is needed. Like many marquee free agents before him, Dwight Howard is looking for greener pastures – but his motive is unclear. He says he wants a better chance to win a championship, but it makes you wonder when he makes outrageous David Kahn-like suggestions – such as telling the front office to keep Gilbert Arenas. Does he want to play with his buddies, be in a bigger market, or have a better supporting cast? Based on his wish list of destinations, the answer to that is not very clear.

As of now, he has a short wish list of destinations: New Jersey, LA (Clippers AND Lakers), Dallas, and now Chicago. Just by simple reasoning, you can figure out why a trade hasn’t happened yet with any of these teams. We know the Nets have NOTHING of value to trade for him – particularly with Brook Lopez’s broken foot. The Clippers would have to give up Blake Griffin (who, btw, just mesmerized the league with his ridiculous dunk theother night) to get Dwight, which I don’t think they would be willing to do right now even if the trade itself makes sense. Otis Smith has told the Lakers he will not settle for less than Pau Gasol AND Andrew Bynum (they’ve only offered Bynum). Dallas and Chicago are already championship-caliber teams that will be hesitant to gut their rosters to get Dwight during such an abbreviated season. Thus, trade talks have been at an impasse.

What’s next for the Magic?

That’s a tough question that only time will tell. In any case, Magic fans better brace themselves for many seasons of mediocrity. Even though the Nuggets went through the same situation last year and came out smelling like roses, the results for Orlando parting ways with their superstar will be completely different. Right now, the Nuggets are now a MUCH better team than they ever would have been with Melo, and so everyone in Denver is glad to see him gone (and struggling in NY). You can’t complain about the results of the trade as a Nugget fan – since the trade, the Knicks have gone 21-27 with Melo, while Denver improved remarkably without him – and is now sitting at 2^nd overall in standings of the loaded Western Conference. In contrast with Orlando, it’s hard to envision a similar result when Dwight leaves. Melo is more of a ball-stopper (which is KILLING his Knicks right now), while Dwight has more of a team anchor-like presence and is not the one dictating his team’s offense. Since Melo’s departure, Denver improved tremendously on defense, while it’s hard to imagine Orlando replacing Dwight’s superior defensive presence.

The Denver Nuggets couldn't be better without Melo, but it's hard to see the same
success story panning out for the Magic without Howard

If you’re Otis Smith, here are your options:

1) Trade Dwight ASAP in hopes of ending the current state of turmoil and take the best offer on the table.

2) Call everyone’s bluff and wait until the trade deadline to solicit everyone’s BEST trade offer, or...

3) Wait it out until free agency and see if you can keep him, or get the best possible sign-and-trade deal.

Option 3 should be ruled out at this point, as he’s made it clear he doesn’t want to stay. So, unless he wants to lose Howard for nothing this summer, Otis Smith should just bite the bullet at some point this season and follow one of the first two options.

I’ll close this blog post with one thought, as I talked to my friend John about this recently: why the hell is Orlando not a more appealing destination for free agents? Brand spanking new arena, great weather, no state taxes – I’d really like to know why players aren’t biting at the bit to move to Central Florida. Of all the superstars who have been wanting to move in the last few years – Chris Paul, Deron Williams, etc. – NONE have even entertained the idea of wearing a Magic uniform – even to play with the league’s best center. Perhaps that's really why Howard is moving forward with a trade request? Please comment with your theories on this, because I’m at a loss.

If you think that trade rumors don’t affect players and their teams that much, think again.

Reaction to the First Week of the 2011-12 Season

2012-01-02T23:18:00.000-05:00

With just over a week of games behind us, I wanted to make some quick notes on which teams I think are overrated, underrated, playing as expected, and teams we can’t judge yet. Keeping in mind I am not making mention of every team at this point, here’s my early take on the NBA landscape:

Overrated:

New York Knicks

In the playoffs last year vs. Boston, the Knicks were competitive during the series’ first two games. Then, Chauncey Billups got hurt, and they were swept shortly thereafter. Well, after the team waived Billups this offseason, and with Baron Davis hurt, did you really expect the Knicks to be that good? With Toney Douglass running the show, I have my doubts. Sure the team signed Tyson Chandler, but he can only clean up so many mistakes that their porous D makes.

With glaring weaknesses in their back court, it could be
a very long season for Stat, Tyson and Melo (left to right)

“Superstars” Melo and Amare still have a LOT to prove, or they’ll be getting the overrated label themselves in the near future (if they haven’t already). I foresee them definitely make the playoffs, but with teams like the Hawks and Pacers improving, and the Magic appearing to tread water – despite the drama surrounding Dwight’s probable lame duck season – I’m not so sure they’re good enough to obtain home court advantage in the first round.

Underrated:

Dallas Mavericks

Don’t be fooled by their slow start. At the end of the day, I still don’t see any clear-cut team out West that’s truly better than them yet. Vince Carter’s play has been a pleasant surprise so far, as has that of Delonte West. Their regular season record may be so-so by season’s end, but I have no doubt that Rick Carlisle will have this team ready come playoff time.

Atlanta Hawks

As long as Atlanta keeps their three All-Star caliber
players, they are a virtual lock to be a top-4 team in the East

After shocking the world by eliminating the heavily-favored Orlando Magic in last year’s playoffs, this team appeared to take a step back by losing scoring juggernaut Jamal Crawford in free agency. But in only five games, this team has proved once again that they are not to be overlooked. But last I looked, they still have Joe Johnson, Josh Smith - who better make the All-Star team this year, as he hasn't yet been selected for one yet - and Al Horford. And with Larry Drew running the show after a great first season as head coach, I don't think they're slowing down anytime soon.

Btw, did you see T-Mac playing like it’s 2003 vs. Miami and beating down the Heat?! That blast to the past may have been the highlight of the season for me so far. If he keeps this up in crunch time situations for the remainder of the season, the Hawks could be a real sleeper in the East.

Indiana Pacers

The team that gave a slight scare to Derrick Rose and the Bulls in last year’s playoffs has improved considerably this season. You probably weren’t blown away by their acquisition of David West and George Hill, but Larry Bird has quietly constructed a talented and deep roster. As long as West finds enough touches playing alongside Roy Hibbert, they have an above-average inside-outside attack scheme.

As Expected:

Top Guns – Miami Heat, Oklahoma City Thunder

The two teams that started off 5-0, the Heat and Thunder are popular picks to meet in the 2012 NBA Finals. At this early stage, who can argue with that? In Miami, LeBron and D-Wade are playing as well as they ever have. LeBron, in particular, has shown noticeable improvement in the low post, after working with Hakeem Olajuwon over the summer (following the advice of Kobe Bryant and Dwight Howard, who also benefited from the Dream's teachings) - one particular new move I noticed that has proven effective is where he holds the ball high and faces up in the "pinch" post, and in one motion, pulls up for a short jumper (a move too quick for defenders to stop, especially in that triple-threat position). Miami also found a diamond in the rough in rookie Norris Cole, who already has received MVP chants. Once Shane Battier gets acclimated and Mike Miller returns to health (which has been dubious lately), I can see Miami going on multiple double-digit win streaks this season.

KD is making a strong case to
be the league's best player

We also expected Kevin Durant and the OKC Thunder to come storming out of the gates. Btw, I’m not going to make too much of the Westbrook and Durant scuffle last week vs. Memphis; I don’t believe there was any animosity there between the two. They both are great players, and they both want to do whatever it takes to win. Westbrook clearly has some growing up to do (particularly after the tantrums he pulled when Dallas eliminated OKC in last year’s WCF), but I think the two of them have patched things up. Anyway, expect the Thunder to be the Western Conference’s top playoff seed this season.

Bottom Feeders – New Jersey Nets, Washington Wizards

These two teams have two of the league’s most dynamic point guards. But that’s about all they have going for them. Brook Lopez could not have picked a worse time to get hurt, and this could prove disastrous for the Nets in their efforts to surround D-Will with talent – and more importantly, to even keep him after he becomes a free agent this summer.

Paul Westphal (right) has grown tiresome
of Cousins' (left) pouty behavior

DeMarcus Cousins

I know, I know – dedicating a section for a particular player is not consistent with the format of this post, but I need to bring this guy up. Prior to being drafted 5^th overall by Sacramento in the 2010 NBA Draft, teams expressed a lot of concern about 21-year old Cousins’ maturity, or lack thereof. Today, Kings Head coach Paul Westphal has publicly criticized Cousins’ poor demeanor, toxic attitude, and questionable work ethic. In only his second NBA season, this guy has had his fair share of meltdowns going back to his days at Kentucky. Wasn’t this guy supposed to prove his critics wrong? Is he ever going to stick it to the teams that passed him in the draft? I don’t think so, but he’s going to have to get his act together. In a league where immensely talented Centers are hard to come by, someone else will give him a chance (the Magic and Nets are two rumored potential destinations). But I’m not convinced that he’ll wise up anytime soon.

TBD:

Los Angeles Clippers

When the Clips acquired Chris Paul, people (myself included) immediately pinned them as playoff contenders. But don’t be shocked at their early-season struggles. With several shakeups to their roster over the offseason, they still need time to gel as a group – especially on defense, which has been atrocious in these first few games. Lob City is still an appropriate team nickname, as they will undoubtedly have a very potent offense. But Vinny Del Negro is going to have to get his team to crack down on D.

Memphis Grizzlies

One of the more disappointing teams in the league so far, Memphis has started off very slow after shocking the top-seeded Spurs and forcing hard-fought games against OKC last season. With the hope that Z-Bo’s knee injury isn’t serious, this team still has a chance to recover from their rocky start.

The “Old” Teams – Boston Celtics, San Antonio Spurs

Everyone has dismissed these teams as title contenders, but I think there is hope yet for these aging veterans. Their regular season record won’t wow you – especially since coaches Doc Rivers and Gregg Popovich will rest their top players on their respective teams often during this heavily condensed season. But in the playoffs, you still never know if they have one more playoff run left in the tank. By no means do I expect them to be serious contenders, but I’m not counting them out quite yet.

Teams I look forward to watching the most in 2011-12

2011-12-21T23:42:00.002-05:00

With the lockout behind us, there are clearly some lingering issues that players, owners, and the commissioner still need to hash out. But we shall put that all that aside as a fantastic NBA season with a plethora of great storylines is about to kick off this glorious Christmas Day. There’s a whole lot to look forward to, and so I just wanted to take a mere glimpse of what we’ll be seeing for the next 6 months. I’ll make my predictions as the season goes on, but for now I only want to share a few reasons why basketball fans should pay special attention to this particular season. With the holidays coming right around the corner, I have listed the teams I look forward to watching the most in order of increasing intrigue, in countdown form. Now, by no means is the following list a set of predictions as to who I think will win the championship; these teams are all ranked by my personal intrigue only.

5. Dallas Mavericks

Yes, they are losing some key free agents (Tyson Chandler, JJ Barea, Caron Butler), but take a look at all the newcomers filling in for them: Lamar Odom, Vince Carter, Delonte West, Sean Williams, and Brandan Wright. None of these guys would be considered All-Stars (yes – even you, Vince), but they should all equip Dallas with one of the better second units of the league. While Chandler, Barea, and Butler were all integral members of the team, I do believe Mark Cuban and company have done a good job with filling those voids. Also, remember that Butler sat out the final 53 games of the season due to injury and did not play at all during the Mavs’ championship run. How they fill Chandler and Barea’s vacancies will be challenging, but doable. Dallas still has plenty of size with their influx of forwards (Odom, Williams, Wright), and young speedy point guard Roddy Beaubois (who was also injured last year) is more than capable of filling Barea’s shoes. I know everyone is dismissing Dallas as a title contender, but I still think they’re going to be a very, very tough team to beat four times in a seven-game series.

Don't think for a second that Dallas won't be contending for a title come June

Shawn Marion and Jason Terry think that the Mavs haven’t gotten the respect they deserve after securing the franchise’s first championship – especially after upsetting the heavy-favorite Miami Heat in last year’s Finals. I think they’re right, and that they will prove critics wrong. Again.

4. Chicago Bulls

The first thing to mention when talking about the Bulls this year is none other than Derrick Rose. The reigning MVP is primed to avenge last year’s playoff shortcomings. Now, after signing his super hefty five-year $90M extension with the Bulls, Rose is bound to put together another stellar season. Right now, I consider him a top-10 player. By season’s end, he may very well jump to my top 5.

Expect Rip's synergy with D-Rose to be just as good -
if not better - as it was with Chauncey Billups in Detroit

One of the most underrated transactions of the offseason is the signing of Rip Hamilton. He is definitely getting up there in age, but I think this change of jerseys (especially with a contender) will rejuvenate his career. Whenever you get someone to replace Keith Bogans in your starting lineup, you know things are good. Anyway, like his former teammate Chauncey Billups will do for his new team, Rip will provide some instant offense and veteran leadership to the still-young Bulls squad. As a scoring two-guard with decent play making skills, he will take a lot of pressure off D-Rose on offense. I also listened to Chris Webber talk about his days in Detroit (when he played with both Billups and Hamilton), and how impressed he was with Rip’s willingness to help out his then-backcourt teammate Billups. C-Webb cited specific examples of how well they worked together; when Rip noticed Chauncey was tired, Rip always offered to check Chauncey’s man on the following possession. I fully expect him to provide D-Rose with the same level of support. Furthermore, with the addition of Rip, you get someone with the ability to consistently make clutch free throws – something they clearly could have used in last year’s collapse to Miami in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

Hopefully Noah (left) and Boozer (right)
spend more time on the court than the sidelines

Even without Hamilton, AND with both Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah ailing through most of last season, this team STILL won 61 games. That’s incredible, and that’s exactly why Tom Thibodeau was Coach of the Year and Rose was awarded the MVP trophy. If they don’t win 60+ games again this year, then that would be a disappointment. And I anticipate another epic show down with Miami in late May.

3. Los Angeles Lakers

This team has gone through arguably the most tumultuous off-season in the NBA. With Phil Jackson retiring, the Chris Paul trade falling through (resulting in a fall-out with Lamar Odom), and Dwight Howard trade talks going nowhere, GM Mitch Kupchak and his club know they are going to take a few steps back this year. We know Kobe is pissed, and that he just injured his wrist in the pre-season. New head coach Mike Brown is being asked to fill the un-fillable shoes of the Zen Master. The hiring of Brown itself was a bit of a weird story also; remember the whole debacle with Kobe, where Kobe felt he should have been consulted with their head coach hiring? How about Metta World Peace (don’t even get me started on how I feel about that name change) and his new role coming off the bench? We know Lamar Odom was irreconcilably upset by the near trade for CP3, but how about Pau Gasol? Is he truly over almost being traded? With all the potential drama, this year's Lakers might have enough drama to rival that of their soap opera season, otherwise known as their 2003-04 season.

Gasol's presence has catapulted the Lakers to title-contender
status since the day he wore purple and gold

This is a team with many distractions, no doubt. BUT, let’s not blow the Lakers’ troubles out of proportion. Since they still have Gasol and an occasionally-healthy Andrew Bynum anchoring the middle, they’re still going to be a top-4 team in the Western Conference. With Dallas losing Tyson Chandler, the West is still up for grabs. Add some depth to the Lakers' bench, and they’re still a title contender. Also, in my opinion, the fallout of the CP3 trade was a blessing in disguise. Losing Gasol would have been devastating to this team - just look at their record in games without him over the last three seasons. I don't know the exact number in terms of record, but the Lakers have won about 80% of games with Gasol in the lineup since he was traded to the team in February 2008. He was heavily criticized for his struggles in last year's playoffs (just like he was vs. the Celtics in the 2008 NBA Finals), but people should not be so quick to dismiss his enormous impact on the team. If it weren't for him, Kobe would never have won a Finals MVP (BTW, I still don't think he deserved MVP honors in 2010 after their Finals re-match against Boston, seeing how he went 6-24 from the field in Game 7 - but I digress).

2. Miami Heat

From now on, Shane Battier (left) will only have
to guard LeBron (right) in practice

Like them or not, this is still going to be one of the most touted teams to watch. Thankfully, they won't be under nearly as much scrutiny - strictly in terms of media attention - as they were last year. Their expectations will be higher, but I don't think TV producers will be as gung-ho about covering all the gory behind-the-scenes details about their season UNLESS they struggle coming out of the gates.

Still, let's not take the two-headed monster combo of Dwyane Wade and LeBron James for granted. Even with a team ranked higher on my particular list that may be potentially more exciting than them, you will still be seeing plenty of highlights every night between these two highlight-generating juggernauts. Also, this team still won't have a shortage of 2011-12 headlines: Can LeBron rebound from his complete meltdown in last year's NBA Finals, and his huge hit to his public image? Can D-Wade stay healthy all year, particularly in the playoffs when his team needs him the most? Can Chris Bosh get more comfortable in his third-wheel role? Also, will the acquisition of Shane Battier be enough for this team to get over the championship hurdle?

Until very late into this extended offseason, Miami was once again expected to be the center of attention this season. But I think we finally found a team that will generate much more interest:

1. LA Clippers

Saw this coming, didn't you? In one fell swoop, the Clippers suddenly became one of the deepest and most exciting teams in the league. There's so much to look forward to: Chris Paul calling the shots on offense, Blake Griffin's chest at rim level at all times during any given game, he and DeAndre Jordan (whom, by the way, are THE most athletic 4-5 combo in the league) being on the receiving end of 10 alley-oops per game; what is there NOT to like?

The team is also loaded with quality veterans; even before acquiring CP3 AND Chauncey Billups - both of which are proven elite floor generals; over time, the team acquired several quality players with great experience. What does that give you? An starting lineup of CP3, Billups, Caron Butler, Griffin, and Jordan with Mo Williams, Ryan Gomes, Randy Foye, and Reggie Evans coming off the bench. Ladies and gents, there are not many teams with that kind of combination of firepower and veteran experience in their rotation.

With several talented stars forming the league's newest potential powerhouse,
the "other" LA team suddenly isn't such an afterthought anymore

Now don't get me wrong - this team has had its fair share of great young players; the Clippers, despite being one of the worst franchises in the history of sports, have always managed to put together a decent collection of talent. But for the first time ever (with the exception of the 2005-06 season with Sam Cassell and Elton Brand), they may have finally have constructed a well-balanced team capable of overcoming the team's losing culture <knock on wood!>. And that is what makes the Clippers the most intriguing team of all in 2011-12.

Keep in mind that I only mentioned five of the teams I personally look forward to watching the most. There are many, many other teams and players with very intriguing storylines – and I haven't even mentioned Dwight Howard's situation with the Magic yet (an ongoing story that deserves a standalone post in the near future). This all the more reason to forgive and forget the debauchery that was the NBA Lockout, and to enjoy what this season will have in store for us.

Fellow basketball fanatics, here’s to sitting on the couch during all of Christmas Day and reveling in the glory of the greatest gift we could have gotten this year. Cheers!

NBA Officially in a State of Chaos

2011-12-10T18:19:00.001-05:00

For the most part, the basketball community felt a huge sigh of relief when the lockout was lifted. But did that spell the end of the turmoil among Commissioner David Stern, the players, and the owners? We should have known better. We should have predicted that, after months of several heated discussions, that rifts would be permanently created and grudges would be held. After both sides made considerable compromises to end the lockout, promises were made to both the players and owners that efforts would be made to ensure their needs would be met. So after all this, what’s the outcome? For one, every team transaction, from here on out, will be further scrutinized by everyone in the league. Now, the same day the lockout ended, we’ve already seen how ugly things have become with the chaotic Chris Paul trade fiasco. In the end, the NBA has seriously tarnished its brand, and things seem to quickly be spiraling out of control.

Let's hope the league wises up and allows CP3 and Kobe to become teammates

The unfathomable veto of the trade that would have brought Chris Paul to the Lakers is the latest episode in what’s been a devastating blow to the NBA’s image. Owners were furious that yet another star player would be moving to a premier franchise. And from my understanding, it wasn’t JUST the acquiring of Chris Paul alone that prompted the owners to react; rumors swirled that the Lakers still had a chance to acquire Dwight Howard from the Magic. While it may not have been feasible immediately after the Lakers parted with both Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom to get Paul, owners were still weary that Howard might eventually finagle his way to LA – especially if he’s not traded to another team.

Scola (left) and Gasol (right) would provide offensive
firepower to their respective teams' front lines

What kills me is that this trade was said to be vetoed for "basketball-related" reasons. Are you kidding me? From a basketball perspective, it's fair to say that New Orleans may have fared the best of the three teams from doing this trade. Lamar Odom, Luis Scola, and Emeka Okafor together would have formed a playoff team-quality front court for the Hornets. That's before even mentioning the acquisition of Kevin Martin and Goran Dragic - who are both up-and-coming prolific scorers (if you don't know Dragic, check out this 23-point 4th quarter outburst he threw down on a very good San Antonio team in the 2010 Western Conference Semis). From a marketing perspective, you obviously can't replace CP3 - even with these high quality players. But it baffles me that the league doesn't realize that this is a much better option than letting Paul walk at season's end, and thereby giving New Orleans nothing in return.

This isn't a bad trade for the other two involved teams, either. In the aftermath of losing Yao Ming, Houston would have landed the second-best big man in the league in Pau Gasol - and were already in the running to land Nene. And of course, Kobe and CP3 would form the best back court in the NBA for the Lakers - albeit with a thin front line. So how the hell is NOT doing this trade better for all three teams from a basketball perspective?

Clearly, there are lingering issues resulting from egos of owners and players in the aftermath of the lockout. So who's at fault for keeping this going?

By opposing the trade of CP3 to LA, Cavs owner Dan Gilbert is
showing that he's obviously not over the loss of LeBron James

To owners, the new CBA should have further prevented teams from stacking up the league’s best players; ever since LeBron, D-Wade and Bosh joined forces in Miami last offseason, owners became determined to not allow something like that to happen again. Thus, when the very first news they hear (on the SAME DAY the lockout ends, to boot) is the rumors of CP3 and Dwight Howard both going to the Lakers, their natural reaction is to push back. They were promised competitive balance, and felt they were lied to. I think all basketball minds agree that New Orleans, in the proposed trade, got a pretty damn good deal out of it. But if we’ve learned anything this offseason, it’s that most owners don’t see things from a basketball perspective – only money.

At the same time, you can’t blame players for wanting to play for bigger market teams. To CP3, his desire to achieve long-term security (by signing an extension with the Lakers) has been denied. If he blows out his knee this season, he’s screwed. There’s no denying he has a right to be livid at the league. Smaller market teams want more than 1% chance of landing star players to improve their venue, but other than a few exceptions – Reggie Miller with the Pacers, Tim Duncan with the Spurs, and Kevin Durant with the Thunder – star players prefer bigger markets. That’s never going to change, and owners need to come to terms with that.

Things will only get uglier from here on out. We’re being told that this happened ONLY because the NBA currently owns the Hornets, causing a perfect storm for this debauchery to happen. But hence forth, every blockbuster trade - especially between big and small-market teams – is going to be heavily scrutinized. Even the New Jersey Nets, who are widely anticipated to be considered a bigger market when they move to Brooklyn next season, got in trouble for tampering in their ongoing attempts to trade for Dwight Howard. Howard, who is open to the idea of playing with All-Star guard Deron Williams, now has more political obstacles to overcome.

It's not just the NBA-owned Hornets whose trade discussions are under scrutiny;
the growing chaos has hindered trade talks involving Dwight Howard (left) and Brook Lopez (right)

What a mess.

So who is to blame for the NBA’s image spiraling out of control?

The easy scapegoat, of course, is David Stern. He’s the one who allowed the lockout get to the point where it did. He’s the one who’s been really wishy-washy on why he vetoed the trade. He’s the one hiding from all the heavy criticism. But remember that ultimately, Stern answers to the owners; the only reason he’s employed is because of the owners. He claims all of his decisions are not affiliated with any pressure he gets from owners, but IMO, that’s not plausible.

David Stern has long ago worn out his welcome

All things considered, he really needs to retire. He’s gotta go. The NBA badly needs new leadership. Regardless of whether he’s truly at fault, we know Stern’s reputation is now irreparable, and that he shouldn’t linger around any longer trying to salvage it. Besides, he wouldn’t be the only sports figure failing to go out on a high note; just two months ago, we saw Penn State legend Joe Paterno’s last season marred by the Jerry Sandusky scandal. But unlike Paterno, Stern’s leadership has been far from flawless up to this point. In fact, you can question the very beginning of his reign upon the first NBA draft lottery in 1985: many conspiracies are out there giving solid evidence that Stern “aided” the New York Knicks to win the draft lottery – and of course allowing them to land #1 pick Patrick Ewing. Of course, the infamous Tim Donaghy scandal comes to mind as well, which put the entire integrity of the game into question. Fair or not, Stern’s legacy will always be associated with these conspiracies.

It's tough to imagine either Greg Oden or Brandon Roy
ever setting foot on an NBA court again

The growing rift between the owners and players is not the only sad story to surface before this already-shortened season even started. Portland Trailblazers star Brandon Roy, who could no longer avoid the inevitable, called it quits on account of his gimpy knees. We saw flashes of the great player he could have been in Game 4 of last year’s First Round matchup vs. the eventual NBA Champion Dallas Mavericks, and it appears that's the last of him. Things are also looking pretty glum for his teammate Greg Oden, who is continuing to struggle making his way back on the court after a heavily injury-ridden start to his career. So on the Blazers front, the already-sad story is only getting sadder.

Somehow, even after the labor situation resolved itself, the NBA is looking worse and worse. All we can hope for now is for the chaos to subside, and that things start looking up once the actual basketball gets underway. Until then, the bleeding won’t stop and the growing divide between players, owners, and the commissioner will not be set aside.

End of the NBA Lockout = A Huge Exhale

2011-11-26T15:13:00.001-05:00

I'm looking forward to seeing action shots on the court -
not pictures of Billy Hunter (left) and David Stern (right).

Many people asked me why I stopped blogging, even with the scary-but-realistic possibility of no 2011-12 NBA season. They said I could write about the lockout and what I thought about it. I could’ve written a general synopsis of the labor negotiations. I could’ve made an assessment on the position of both sides, and whether I sided with the NBA or the Players Union. I could’ve followed the constant cycle of rumors and constant teases of a possible labor deal, only to learn that the talks broke down. But I didn’t bother.

Now that we’ve been given an early Christmas gift with this weekend’s tentative agreement in place, I can finally vent about the lockout and tell you why I’ve been quiet this whole time…

I hated every moment of the lockout. HATED it. I hated talking about sh*t that has nothing to do with the game itself. I hated all the over-analysis of the 150-day long negotiation process. During a time we were supposed to talk about free agency and everything else in the basketball landscape, we were only hearing news about progress (or lack thereof) being made in negotiations. I just couldn’t stand the thought of enduring several months with no basketball to watch. I even tried watching some college basketball recently, as I was resigned to the fact that an NBA season probably wasn’t going to happen. Couldn’t do it.

Players union President Derek Fisher is one of the few
who knew what really went down behind the scenes.

Fear of loss wasn’t the only thing that kept me from blogging. In general, I just stay away from forming my own opinion in politics – especially when I’m not involved directly. In fact, I don’t know if any basketball analysts or bloggers are collective bargaining experts (although they sure tried to act like it). Did any of us really know what went down during the labor talks? Not really. All the reports emphasized the difference in the split of Basketball Related Income (BRI), the salary cap flexibility, and other contractual terms. However, even when the two sides appeared to be making ground on those contentious issues, it didn’t result in a deal. So really, we don’t know exactly what the hold-up was.

But here’s what we know for sure: neither the owners nor players gained any popularity over this time period. It is hard for fans to sympathize with billionaires and millionaires arguing about money, and understandably so, given how much was at stake. It also became evident that there was a growing divide amongst both the players and owners. Both sides tried to hide that fact in order to maintain their hand, but that’s a near impossible feat in today’s social network-ridden world, where there are too many outlets for everyone to express their opinion. Even though this has been looked at as the owners vs. players, it became obvious that there was no unity on either side. We've seen evidence of this from Miami Heat owner Micky Arison, as well as Dallas' DeShawn Stevenson's comments about Billy Hunter. If the lockout were to go on any longer, things were only going to derail from there. Paychecks were going to be missed, and 75% of the players that can’t afford to miss games were going to get even more pissed off. When that happens, it’s best to just take the offer on the table and give the fans what they want before everyone is alienated from the NBA.

If all goes as planned, things will start to get interesting on December 9^th, the targeted start date of training camp. We still haven’t had free agency, and that could very well change the landscape of the season. Also, will there indeed be an All-Star Game in Orlando in mid-February? Are we having 3 ½ months of a jam-packed 66-game schedule, or are games going to get pushed out resulting in late-June playoff games? There are still a lot of questions to be answered, but at least they’re basketball-related questions.

From now on, it will be tougher for guys like Chris Paul
and Kevin Durant to team up under the current CBA.

Now, how is the new CBA going to affect the landscape of the NBA? From looking at the terms of the deal at first glance, a harsher luxury tax will be put into effect for teams that are over the salary cap. Although there is no hard cap, this may somewhat discourage teams like the Lakers and Knicks to reach into their deep pockets. Therefore, the new deal will stimulate competitive balance amongst all 30 teams to a degree. Hopefully, we will no longer see a ridiculously one-sided trade as ludicrous as the infamous Pau Gasol trade from Memphis to LA in exchange for the Lakers’ benchwarmers. At the same time, you’ll never see a team pull off what Miami did last offseason in acquiring their Big Three. In the long run, I think this is good for the league.

On the other hand, the rules in place that will permit competitive balance will come with a caveat: this labor deal may give birth to the amnesty clause, where teams are permitted to release a player without incurring further luxury tax on the player’s contract no matter how lucrative it may be – an essential repeat of the 2005 “Allan Houston rule.” This time around, in addition to the luxury tax relief, there will be a small cap relief to boot; 75% of the player’s contract value will be taken off the team’s payroll. The rule this year will most likely be named after Washington’s Rashard Lewis, who is still owed $27.7 million. Essentially, this rule gives forgiveness to teams that gave out such regrettable deals (or traded for them). So, while the new labor deal will create competitive balance down the line, you may not see the effects of it immediately; teams with high payrolls will be able to shed a significant amount of salary this year, somewhat offsetting the initial blow of the new luxury tax thresholds and restrictions.

It’s obvious who the true beneficiaries are with regard to the end of the lockout. Players and owners will now start making money, fans will get to watch games and create fantasy teams again. More importantly, much of the country’s working class – arena workers, etc. whose income depends on games being played – now have jobs again.

Maybe I’m just biased since I live here, but I don’t know if anybody’s happier about this than the city of Orlando. First and foremost, Magic fans will get to see Dwight Howard wearing blue and white for another season (which, quite frankly, may be his last). Also, the city will get to host the All-Star Game after all. I, for one, am psyched about it; I’ve never been able to attend All-Star Weekend festivities, and this may be my best chance to do so. Furthermore, the city put so much money into the amazing new arena, banking on both this year’s regular season games and All-Star Weekend venue to help pay off the investment and stimulate the economy. Now, the possibility of bankruptcy has subsided.

The Amway Center will now be fully utilized, thanks to the end of the NBA lockout.

I hated every moment of the lockout. HATED it. But now, we get to talk about basketball again. Now, instead of seeing SportsCenter clips of David Stern talking to Billy Hunter, we'll be talking about Derrick Rose and the Bulls taking on Kobe and the Lakers on December 25th. Merry ****ing Christmas!

Cavs Season Wrap and Outlook

2011-06-17T14:11:00.002-04:00

Cavs Looking Back:

How they did in 2010-2011: Terrible, as expected after Lebron left. They traded most of their weighty contracts for picks or cap relief picking up one monster in return (Baron Davis). The Cavs picked up castoffs and D-Leaguers to fill out the roster. They somehow lost a record 26 games in a row as the pathetic yet interesting highlight of the year. Managed to play .500 ball the last 12 games to hand Minnesota the worst record. By another miracle they won the draft lottery.

With a roster full of virtual no-name players, the Cavs
came out on top...of the lottery standings

Cavs looking forward:

The Cavs would obviously love to somehow land both
Kyle Irving and Derrick Williams

Draft: They currently have the #1, #4, and #32 picks. The #1 will go to Kyrie Irving. Irving is an elite college PG and they sorely need someone like that after years of Mo Williams and Lebron running the point. Pick #4 is the bigger decision for the Cavs management. Do they stick with #4 and go big euro (Kanter/Valanciunas/Vesly) or do they trade up to get Derrick Williams? They need to pick a guy with sure talent and develop him the next 2-3 years. Trading up doesn’t change that fact so my hope is they stay pat. John Krolik brings up a great point that the Cavs will be picking #28-40 many times in the next 5 years (thanks Miami). These guys need to be solid rotation or project guys. This plan also tells me the Cavs won’t try to contend immediately.

Roster: Salary-wise things look good. Only Chris Eyenga and Andy Varejao have contracts longer than 2 years headed into the 2011-12 season. Antawn Jamison and Baron Davis can be traded easily now that their contracts are expiring or soon-to-be expiring. Both have something left in the tank and a contender might want to take them on to shore up their bench or fill in for an injured starter. JJ Hickson becomes an interesting trade piece if they draft a big man. After that things don’t look so good. I would count Varejao and Eyenga as the only pieces the Cavs have for the future. If Eyenga develops over the next 2 years that helps but look for him to be participating in dunk contests and coming off the bench for athleticism. If you’ve read my Draft synopsis then you know the Cavs plan is to build a contender slowly over 3-5 years. They could throw in a smart trade here or there but don’t count on them trying to put together a Big 3 (or any FAs even wanting to come to Cleveland for that purpose).

One of the few brights spots of the 10-11
season, JJ Hickson has developed nicely

Coaching and Ownership: I’m sure any coach could have put together a 19-63 season but Byron Scott was brought in to teach. He seemed to help with the younger players over the course of the season. That is possibly why Mike Brown was let go. His defensive game plan would have probably helped the Cavs record into the 30s but the younger guys would have not become any better (i.e. Hickson in 2010 playoffs). I see him coaching the Cavs until they reach the fringe of contending for a title and then he will probably be let go as he was with all his other teams.

Dan Gilbert is a smart man even if the media gives him hell for his tweets, emails, and letters. All his blather is for the fans and media. It seems to work as Quicken Loans had a decent year in attendance (probably just as good as Miami pre-playoffs). But from the moves the front office has made, it looks like they know the best plan for the Cavs is a long term draft and develop scheme. Bonus: His prognosis about a Cavs championship before Lebron holds true for another year.

Outlook for 2011-2012: The Cavs win more games but barely threaten the 8^th seed. I could see them winning handfuls in the beginning and end of the season when teams are off guard, resting, or in lottery mode. Prediction of 31-51.

Coming soon: Team Recaps, Outlooks

2011-06-15T16:55:00.001-04:00

Just so you know, I plan on spending the boring NBA-less summer looking at each team's 2010-11 season and what to look forward to this offseason as well as next year. In that, I will include my reaction to the too-corny-to-be-a-movie-but-that's-how-great-it-was NBA Finals in the Mavs and Heat assessments.

Also, since I realized how hard it was to maintain a blog alone, I am adding my friend Dave as a contributing author. He's one of the very few Cavs fans left that I know, so his insight will be valuable.

The Legacy of Shaquille O’Neal

2011-06-05T19:53:00.010-04:00

Shaq. The Diesel. The Big Daddy. Superman. The Big Shamrock. Shaqtus. The Big Aristotle. The list goes on and on. Now, he’s going to be the Big 401k.

Shaq may have been the greatest at
winning while entertaining in sports history

Only a legend would be able to acquire all these nicknames. Perhaps the most prominent celebrity figure in the history of the game, Shaquille O’Neal is finally hanging up his sneakers. As a huge fan of basketball in general, I wouldn’t be doing this blog justice by not trying to take a look back at his illustrious career. As NBA commissioner David Stern says, he really is a true giant – both on and off the court. He has established his legacy as both an entertainer and a Hall of Fame basketball player. If you can get perspective on everything he’s accomplished, you’ll realize he truly is larger than life.

What can you say about his basketball career? He became a dominant force once he got to the NBA in 1992. A 15-time All-Star, 4-time champion, 3-time Finals MVP (and somehow only a 1-time regular season MVP); his accomplishments make him rank him up there among the greatest big men ever to play the game. His tremendous impact on the game was evident once he set foot on the court. In his rookie year, he played a game against Boston and was matched up with Kevin McHale and Robert Parish when they were still on board. Stunned by the one-of-a-kind physical specimen that anybody has ever encountered before, McHale said he and Parish looked at each other during that game and both said “Yeah, it’s about time to retire!”

More than any other basketball legend (except maybe Charles Barkley), Shaq was equally well-known for his hilarious demeanor and publicity stunts as much as for his basketball achievements. Because of the attention he’s drawn to himself from the fans, media, and players, he has called himself “very quotatious” as a result. One of my favorite Shaq quotes of all time happened when the NBA conducted a BMI study during the 2005-06 season and Shaq was asked about his high BMI (which was well in the obese category); his response: “Top 50. Three Rings. Lotta Money. Two Mansions.” Of course, he has four rings now, and he goes down as the most dominant player the league has ever seen.

Even if you rooted against Shaq, you had to
love his ability to entertain in other ways

For anyone who didn’t like his game (truth be told – for a long while, I was among this group), you had to love the guy off the court. If you ask anyone that’s spent time with him, he is an absolute blast to hang out with. Not only did he embrace the social media to cultivate his image with fans and the press, but he was very active (and interactive) with the community. Very few famous people embrace being a celebrity the way Shaq does; he knew better than anybody that athletes are supposed to be entertainers as well. Whether he's break-dancing, pretending to be a point guard, kissing Tracy McGrady, or intentionally throwing free throws off the backboard to do monster (but illegal) put-back dunks at All-Star games, he never ran out of ideas for giving everyone a good laugh.

Since I’ve never met him personally, I’m only basing this off of general observation and the perspective of others: he is one of the most approachable celebrities you’ll ever meet. Most stars and icons are low-key and want to be left alone; they usually have bodyguards with them in public to ensure people don’t harass them. Not that there’s nothing wrong with that, but Shaq never did mind being out in the open for anyone to come up close to him. Of course, at 7’1” and 350 pounds, he’s not exactly someone who needs to fear for his security. Still, if you see Shaq at say, a restaurant, he would come over to your table and grab something from your plate. He'd make sure you weren't shy about coming up to him to say hi. Even though he was a true beast, he was gentle and friendly in nature.

He also pulls a lot of publicity stunts, like his “Shaqtue” act – where he sat silently at Harvard Square and let everyone there take pictures with him. With the era of social networking blossoming, he is a very active “Tweeter,” always sending out public message videos and gives fans a chance to interact with him.

With so much that went on during his storied 19-year career, I could go on and on about his memorable moments. Instead, I’ll go through some of the common questions and misconceptions about his legacy:

Misconceptions

“Was Shaq really that good? He only won because he was bigger than everybody.”

When motivated, Shaq was a devastating force
that could not be stopped

This is the most common misconception among casual sports fans with regard to Shaq – that he was only good because of his size and strength. While those were his two greatest physical assets, everyone must understand that he had many, many more skills than just his behemoth presence. First and foremost, his mobility was absolutely remarkable for a guy his size. Over the course of his career, he greatly improved his passing ability, especially out of double and triple teams. his most dominant years were as a Laker from 2000-2004. In fact, to get a true understanding of how skillful he actually is, compare him with Dwight Howard. The two of them are very similar. In fact, Dwight is actually more athletic than Shaq ever was. But many of Dwight’s criticisms – lack of offensive moves, inability to hit free throws, etc. – were weakne

NBA Finals Preview & Conference Finals Recap

2011-05-31T19:05:00.000-04:00

We saw two series in each of the Conference Final matchups that resulted in not only the same number of games played, but shared many other similarities in terms of the complexity of the games. Each series featured a team of veterans vs. the up-and-comers, with experience prevailing in both instances. Oddly enough, both the Bulls and Thunder suffered colossal meltdowns (Bulls in Game 5, Thunder in Game 4) that led to their demise. And although each series lasted only five games, the teams were very evenly matched. A few lucky breaks for the Bulls or Thunder, here or there, could have extended the series to 6 or 7 games.

Dallas, after convincingly dethroning the two-time defending champs, continued their stretch of impressive play and exhibited what was, for them, unprecedented mental toughness. The tables have turned, as they are no longer the team that can’t hold leads down the stretch; they are poised on both ends of the court, and a super determined Dirk Nowitzki has taken his game to a whole new level. If you saw a game where Dallas blew a 15 point lead in the last 5 minutes, you wouldn’t be surprised. But this time, such a collapse was their opponent’s doing.

At times, Westbrook lost his cool - and his poise - at
crucial moments during the Conference Finals

On OKC’s end, you can’t help but wonder about Russell Westbrook. A year removed from his impressive performance against the Lakers last year, he was heavily criticized during this playoff run for his questionable decision-making and often for taking shots away from Durant (their true go-to guy) in crucial moments. It also appeared that James Harden and Eric Maynor were the team’s better playmakers; recall that the Thunder’s lone win was in Game 2, when Scott Brooks chose to bench Westbrook for the entire 4th quarter. What’s more troubling was his apparent immaturity he displayed, especially in Game 5. At one point, he shoved Jason Terry into the 1st row – which probably would have warranted a suspension had there been a Game 6. After the final buzzer, Westbrook pulled a LeBron by storming off the court without shaking the Mavs’ hands. If he wants to become a great player, he’s going to have to grow up. The good news is, he’s only 22 years old.

This year's MVP struggled mightily against
the much-improved D of LeBron.

After their Game 1 loss to Chicago, Miami was once again a subject of over-scrutiny and found themselves on the “What’s Wrong?” headlines on every sports show. Derrick Rose showed everyone why he was this year’s landslide MVP winner, dropping 28 on the Heat and was the main catalyst behind their 10-0 run in the 3rd quarter of Game 1. Also, Taj Gibson had a couple poster-worthy highlight-reel dunks, images that really captured the Bulls’ statement game. But since then, it’s been all Miami. D-Rose’s youth finally caught up to him, making crucial turnovers seemingly in every game since his standout Game 1 performance. His decisions down the stretch of Games 2 through 5 were shaky at best. Credit LeBron, who clamped down and dared Rose to take stepback jump shots over him.

You can’t put all the blame on Rose, though. Carlos Boozer, after snapping out of his funk for two games, went back to his old self and resumed his ongoing playoff struggles. Boozer’s inability to live up to his contract is a disturbing trend that’s become a reality in recent years. Tom Thibodeau has his work cut out for him this offseason in terms of what he’s going to do with his $85 million man. The guy who backs him up, Taj Gibson, has clearly been more effective – particularly on the defensive end – during their entire playoff run. Is Thibodeau going to bench Boozer next year in favor of Gibson? He should, but I wonder if Bulls GM Gar Forman (who signed Boozer to this big contract last offseason) would be happy with that decision.

In the end, the Thunder and Bulls have absolutely nothing to be ashamed of. They both lived up to their higher expectations coming into the regular season. Nobody anticipated that the Bulls would get the league’s best record, ahead of the likes of Miami, Boston, and the Lakers. Consider that they had a first year coach, a third-year superstar player, and glaring weaknesses at the 2-guard position - and they've had a heck of a season. As for the Thunder, they have nothing to worry about; their FOUR best players (Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, Harden) are only 22 years old or younger. Rick Carlisle even said that they were much better than the Lakers, whom they faced (and swept) in the previous round.

This wasn't their year, but the Bulls and Thunder may very well
face one another in a future Finals matchup

Ultimately, Chicago and OKC are both are going to learn from this experience and, without a doubt, contend for the title for years to come. Youth is the only thing that kept them from getting past Dallas and Miami. In addition to their aforementioned issues, both teams will need to make minor tweaks over the offseason, but should be well off with their main core for the foreseeable future.

And now for the fun part: predicting this year’s NBA champs. This is a real toss-up, as both teams have been impossible for their opponents to put away late in games. Dallas has only lost 3 games total so far in the playoffs, and Miami’s only lost 4. The headline everyone likes to label these Finals with is: “Can Dirk avenge the Mavs’ 2006 infamous collapse against Wade’s Heat?”

Wade annihilated Dirk's Mavs in 2006;
can Dirk turn the tables this time around?

Everyone likes to compare this year’s Finals to that of 2006, even though only 4 players from that series remain (Wade, Haslem, Dirk, Terry). For the sake of comparison, let’s look at Wade and Dirk. Wade was an absolute monster in that Finals series; according to ESPN’s John Hollinger, Wade had the greatest performance in NBA Finals history. As the undisputed Finals MVP of that series in just his 3rd season in the NBA, Wade swayed some (including me) that he – not Kobe or LeBron – was the league’s best player. And back then, nobody could really argue that.

Just as a painful reminder, Dallas was winning by double digits midway through the 4th quarter of Game 3 after securing a 2-0 lead – only to blow that lead and the following 4 games. In fact, Miami’s Game 6 win in Dallas was their FIRST win in Dallas during the entire season – and it just so happened to be their title-clinching win. We’ve seen Miami overcome these type of odds this year also – as was often pointed out, Miami was swept by Chicago and lost 3 of 4 games to Boston. This goes to show that stats don’t mean ANYTHING - especially when you’re talking about teams that are playing at the highest of levels in a 7-game series. So, you better believe that Miami’s 0-2 regular season record against Dallas this year doesn’t mean anything, either (especially since both games were played in 2010). Remember this, though: when Miami won 21 of 22 games in a remarkable stretch of great basketball in December and early January, Dallas was that one team that beat Miami – on their home floor, to boot.

Let’s go back to Dirk for a second: many blamed him for Dallas’s total meltdown in that 2006 series. Consequently, many questioned his toughness and doubted his ability to lead a team to a title. While most of the criticism was unfair, he didn’t help his cause in that last Game 6 – he went 0-5 from the field down the stretch of that game, failing to capitalize on several wide-open jump shots. Wade, conversely, devastated the Mavs and picked them apart in every way – on passes, drives to the rim, and from the foul line.

Even against a top-notch defender in Serge Ibaka,
Dirk has been lights out from the field

Heading into these playoffs, however, the opposite trend is taking place: Dirk has been scorching hot, while Wade has been relatively cold. He’s dealing with a few nagging injuries (seemingly a common theme for him, unfortunately), resulting in limited effectiveness. While he did come through in moments that mattered against Chicago (especially Game 4 where he hosted a block party by himself in the game’s last 2 minutes), he really hasn’t had a memorable D-Wade-type game yet. This either means the injuries are bothering him more than he’s letting on, or he’s due for an explosion during these Finals. As for Nowitzki, his performance to this point has been impeccable. Yet you still wonder whether he’ll come through now that he’s back in the Finals against the very team that derailed him and his teammates.

So what can we expect from the two superstars this time around? My guess is that the individual trends thus far this postseason will continue for them (Wade cold, Dirk hot), regardless of the outcome of the series. If Wade is not fully healthy, he may continue his struggles against Dallas’s solid zone defense. Fortunately for Wade, he has LeBron on his side. He is now getting more help than he could imagine from his superstar teammate, who has suddenly shown a killer instinct in Miami’s last two playoff series. He is truly on a mission to silence all the hatred that’s come his way since ‘The Decision’, and he’s 4 games away from really sticking it to all the haters.

Honestly, I’m rooting for Dirk and the Mavs. Miami has had a great season considering all the “drama” they’ve been through all year (I’m putting “drama” in quotes because most of it was overhyped and over-scrutinized by the media), and the three-headed monster of Wade, LeBron, and Bosh will only get better for years to come. They’ll have plenty of chances to win a title. The Mavs’ window, however, is quite smaller than that of Miami’s. Jason Kidd is reaching the twilight of his career at 38 years old, and Dirk’s toward the end of his prime at 32. Dallas will be competitive in the West with this core for the next 2-3 years, but this may be their best chance to win the title. After being heavily criticized for coming up short throughout his career, I think it would be very fitting for Dirk to finally win a title – especially against the same team that he faded against 5 years ago.

While I’m rooting for Dallas, I really can’t see Miami losing. With LeBron and D-Wade, a game is never out of reach for this team. The two of them seem to turn it up a notch down the stretch of games, making it extremely difficult for opponents to put them away.

Bosh and Miami's bigs have the ability to contain Dirk
- at least more so than Dallas' previous opponents

Also, note that Chris Bosh is going to be a huge factor in this series, and might give Dirk more problems than anybody else that he’s faced. Bosh’s one-on-one defense is vastly underrated, and he is better suited against perimeter-oriented big men (like himself) than against true post-up players. The dynamic of that matchup will be much different than the Dirk-Serge Ibaka matchup. Ibaka is a great defender, but is more of a weak side helper/shot blocker than a one-on-one defender, which is why Dirk was able to pick him apart through the course of the Thunder series. Bosh will not allow Dirk to beat him off the dribble; Dirk will need to utilize his post-up game a lot more than he has in any of their previous series. On the offensive end, Dirk may have a hard time keeping up with Bosh, who has a sizeable quickness advantage on Nowitzki and thereby could put Dirk in foul trouble early in games. With Miami’s Big 3 and superior defense figuring out a way to contain Dallas’s biggest weapons, they have a distinct advantage against the Mavs.

So it’s the classic heart vs. head argument: my head’s telling me Miami will win this, but my heart’s telling me Dallas will prove everyone wrong once again and Dirk will finally win a title that’s eluded him for so many years. If that happens, who wouldn’t want to see commissioner David Stern pretend to be happy having to give Mark Cuban a championship trophy?

My prediction, all things considered? Miami in 6.

Changing of the Guards

2011-05-15T23:24:00.002-04:00

So in case you haven’t noticed, I haven’t been writing a whole lot lately; I’ve been gone for 2 weeks on travel for work and unfortunately have not had any free time for blogging lately. In that time, much has gone on that has happened relatively quickly, so we need to take a quick look at what happened and what we can expect through the remainder of the playoffs.

During my 2-week trip, I visited the Arlington National Cemetery in Washington DC. One of the coolest things I got to see there is the changing of the guards at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. At this location, a permanent guard from the 3rd US Infantry Regiment is mounted at all times - and there is a short ceremony of switching guards periodically depending on the time of day. Beyond this literal meaning, the "changing of the guards" expression has become a metaphor for transferring duties of one person on to another. In the case of the NBA, the metaphor refers to a former powerhouse team making way for another up-and-comer to take the reigns.

To sum it up, this year’s playoffs have signified a changing of the guards. Boston, LA, and San Antonio – three of the NBA’s dominant teams – are all out. We have to get used to a conference final without Duncan, Kobe, and Pierce/KG/Allen. The new up-and-comers – OKC, Chicago, and Miami – are in a position to take the reigns as the NBA’s next generation of elite teams.

Let’s digest what happened to the Lakers and Celtics, and take a look at what we can expect in the Conference Finals.

Dallas def LA Lakers, 4-0

Despite my previous notion that Dallas is tailor-made to beat LA, I went against my gut feeling and picked against them because, well, they’re Dallas. But the Mavs shocked the world and completely picked apart the 2-time defending champs, exploiting LA’s greatest weaknesses: pick-and-roll defense and inferior bench players.

The Lakers never had to deal with Dirk in any 7-game
series before getting swept in this one

The scapegoat of this series has been Pau Gasol. Let’s be clear, though: the Dirk-led Mavs and Kobe-led Lakers have NEVER met in the playoffs. Ever consider that the Mavs are just better? I mean, Kobe and Andrew Bynum both had a pretty good series. Beyond Gasol’s underwhelming performance, I think this was just a matter of the Lakers getting outplayed by Dallas more than anything else. As I mentioned before, Dirk has had decent success against Pau in their head-to-head matchups over the years, dating back to Pau’s days in Memphis. During all their successful playoff runs, the Lakers never had to face a guy like Dirk – someone who is devastating in any pick-and-roll situation due to his impeccable shooting and improving driving ability. On top of Dirk’s great play, he had plenty of help from the Mavs bench. Jason Terry absolutely torched LA, tying an NBA Playoff record with 9 three-pointers.

This series also shows how worn out the Lakers are after 3 straight trips to the Finals. After getting lit up by Chris Paul, Derek Fisher had a relatively favorable matchup against an older Jason Kidd. But he has shown that it’s not just the younger and quicker point guards that give him fits; he just flat out has lost his ability to stay in front of anyone. So, when JJ Barea came in the game, Fisher had no chance whatsoever. Hell, Phil Jackson had to settle for subbing Shannon Brown in for Fisher to guard him. While Kobe did OK scoring-wise in the series, most of his points came from contested jump shots (if memory serves, he only made ONE layup during the entire series).

In the complete blowout that occurred in Game 4, the Lakers completely surrendered in what was probably Phil Jackson’s last game with the Lakers. I don’t think he’s done coaching altogether; Mavs coach Rick Carlisle put it best, saying "My belief is that he’ll retire for a while," Carlisle said, "but I don’t know how long you can go to Montana and meditate and smoke peyote or whatever he does there. I don’t know. He’s going to get bored. And I mean that in an endearing way.” You’ve seen coaching legends like Larry Brown and Lennie Wilkens come back from retirement again and again out of boredom. Coaching is an extremely demanding job with high expectations, and he is among only 4 coaches with guaranteed long-term job security (the other 3 being Greg Popovich, Doc Rivers, and Jerry Sloan before he suddenly quit). Generally, it’s tough for any successful and driven person to go from such a demanding and stimulating job to doing nothing. Then again, what’s his motivation? He needs a ring for his other big toe?

This series has the potential to go
the distance, and get testy along the way

Back to Dallas: if they have indeed shed their label as a mentally fragile squad, they have the talent to finally avenge their 2006 collapse. Charles Barkley seems to think that OKC is a better matchup for Dallas than Memphis would have been, but I beg to differ: Dallas will have major, major problems guarding the two-headed monster of Durant and Westbrook. Against LA, they’ve already proven that they could contain guys that can dominate the paint. If they fared well against Bynum and Gasol, they would have been fine against Zach Randolph and the other Gasol. But I don’t think they will have an answer for Westbrook and Durant, who will give Dallas fits.

On the other hand, Dallas has some matchup advantages as well. Serge Ibaka will have a harder time being matched up against Dirk than he did vs. Z-Bo and Kenyon Martin in their previous series. He won’t be able to help his teammates in the paint, either, on penetrating perimeter players like Kidd and Barea. OKC is not as deep as Dallas, either. As long as Chandler continues to be an effective defensive anchor, I think Dallas will edge OKC in 7.

Miami def Boston, 4-1

What many thought would be a clash of the titans-type matchup turned out to be a shorter series than expected. Miami controlled the series from the get-go, with Miami’s Big 3 dominating the Celtics in every aspect. They also got some unexpected help from James Jones and Joel Anthony; when the two of them were in the lineup, Boston seemed to struggle the most. The 5-man lineup of Wade-James-Jones-Bosh-Anthony has played a total of 3 minutes prior to Game 5, but I get the feeling we’ll see that more against Chicago (if that lineup proves effective).

Considering how short this series ended up being, you can't help but wonder where Boston would be had they not traded Kendrick Perkins to the Thunder. When the starting five of Rondo-Allen-Pierce-KG-Perk were all healthy, they NEVER lost a playoff series. Danny Ainge will have some explaining to do, though it's not his fault that he got virtually nothing from the O'Neals. Shaq and Jermaine have shown flashes, but not surprisingly, could never stay healthy enough to make steady contributions. Still, this is by no means the demise of the Celtics. With the core still intact and Doc committing to a 5-year extension, they should be able to re-tool their roster and be contenders again next year.

There was some controversy with the way Miami celebrated after their win. Personally, I didn’t have a problem with it for two reasons: 1) it’s really, really hard to put away a team like Boston the way they did, and 2) LeBron was clutch when it mattered, for once. Let’s look at the latter reason. Try to look at this from LeBron’s perspective: here’s a guy who has been much-maligned all season long by everyone (myself included) for the way he left Cleveland, and his apparent inability to make plays down the stretch. In this game, he put away a tough Boston team by scoring the game’s last 10 points. When he was screaming to the Miami crowd and crying at the end of the game, that was his way to finally let out his relief considering all the hatred that came his way.

Was LeBron's emotional reaction to his breakthrough win a little over-the-top?
Maybe. But it was understandable.

While I didn’t think there was anything wrong with the celebration, I do think it caused them to have an emotional letdown in their Game 1 loss against Chicago. Chicago is by far Miami’s toughest matchup, as they are the NBA’s best defensive team and are best equipped to handle the two-man wrecking crew of Wade and Bron. For the record, I still think Miami will win in six games. Once they realize they are not even close to their goal of winning a title yet, they will re-focus on the task at hand. Still, this will be an electrifying series that may very well go the distance.

As the Conference Finals just began on Sunday, the changing-of-the-guards process happened quicker than we expected. Now, we can just sit back and enjoy the next generation of great NBA teams going at it.

Second Round Predictions

2011-05-01T02:28:00.002-04:00

As anticipated, no “expert” in the world predicted the 1^st Round correctly. Since the Spurs and Magic were unable to turn on the switch after stumbling to the finish of the regular season, they proceeded to destroy my original predictions (though my Finals prediction of Lakers Heat is still intact).

WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

(4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (8) Memphis Grizzlies

Season Series: Memphis won 3-1

Prediction: Thunder in 6

Obviously, Memphis has proven they are a force to be reckoned with. This will be a long and grueling series, as both teams are young and athletic at every position with veteran experience. The biggest difference in this series, however, is matchups with regard to Memphis facing OKC rather than San Antonio, particularly at the point guard position. Russell Westbrook should have his way against Mike Conley with his relatively consistent jump shooting and slashing ability. Tony Parker is more so a slasher and is extremely streaky from the perimeter. When he’s cold,the inside presence of the Grizzlies (Randolph, Gasol, Darrell Arthur) were able to contain Parker’s ability to attack the paint. He made several careless plays down the stretch of Friday’s Game 6 to boot.

(2) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (3) Dallas Mavericks

Season Series: Lakers won 2-1

Prediction: Lakers in 5

While I previously wrote that the Mavs are talented enough to beat LA, their lack of killer instinct shown most recently against the Portland Trailblazers in Game 4 has verified their mental fragility. Needless to say, that will easily derail their chances against LA.

EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks

Season Series: Bulls won 2-1

Prediction: Bulls in 5

After Jameer Nelson infamously told Derrick Rose “See you in the second round!” after their last regular season meeting (horrible, horrible decision by Jameer, by the way), Derrick will think Jameer’s a liar when he sees the surprisingly resilient Hawks squad on the other side of the court instead of the Magic.

You have to give credit to the Hawks for getting here, regardless how poorly the Magic played. At the end of the day, though, Orlando would still have been a better suited to beat the Bulls than the Hawks are. I can’t see Jamal Crawford and Joe Johnson putting up big numbers consistently, but I do see Derrick Rose continuing his remarkable playoff run. With Kirk Hinrich’s injury, Rose will have nobody in his way to stop him. If Hinrich were healthy, I would give the Hawks a much better chance to make this series interesting.

(2) Miami Heat vs. (3) Boston Celtics

Season Series: Celtics won 3-1

Prediction: Heat in 7

This is easily the best series of the 2^nd round. As Chris Bosh said, everyone knew this series was going to happen, and the Heat would have to go through Boston in order to win a championship. Is Miami ready to dethrone the reigning Eastern Conference champs? I think they will be. My only asterisk to this prediction is that Spoelstra still may not have learned to NOT let LeBron have the ball late in close games.

Quick take on the Playoff’s First Round So Far

2011-04-26T15:27:00.001-04:00

I’ll say this much: I’ve never seen a first round this good. Never have I seen most, if not all, of the lower seeds play so well. I predicted some landslide first round matchups, and that’s been far from the case in every series so far. Even in the lopsided series in terms of games won, the lower seeded teams have admirably battled against their heavily favored opponents. We did manage to see one sweep so far (Boston over NY), but that series was very competitive until the Knicks could no longer sustain injuries to their key guys (Billups, Stoudemire). Most experts deemed the top four seeds from each conference superior to the remaining field, but one wouldn’t have been able to tell that by watching the games so far. In other words, nobody (including me) predicted an upset. Now, it turns out of all eight first round matchups, HALF could end up in upsets (with Memphis, New Orleans, Portland, and Atlanta potentially winning). I’m not saying that’s likely, but few thought those four teams would be in a position to pull off an upset.

I’m going to go over my thoughts on each series so far, starting with the most intriguing (and surprising) ones. I’ll assign each series into one of three categories: 1) Most surprising (likely upsets), 2) Somewhat surprising, and 3) About what we expected.

Category 1: MOST SURPRISING/UPSETS BREWING

Memphis/San Antonio, Atlanta/Orlando

Memphis 3, San Antonio 1

Randolph has helped Memphis take control
of this series

This is, without a doubt, the most shocking series so far. Not only is Memphis up 3-1, but they absolutely annihilated the Spurs in Game 4 to take a commanding series lead. Manu Ginobili may still not be 100% healthy, and this may be the beginning of the end for this particular Spurs core. I, for one, thought Tim Duncan would turn back the clock and pick apart the Grizzlies. Instead, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol – who, by the way, is clearly playing better than his brother Pau currently – are having their way in the paint. If San Antonio goes on to become the second first-seeded team to lose in the 1^st round (in a best-of-7 format), you better believe team GM R.C. Buford will do a complete overhaul of this team. Here’s the question: who can you trade? The San Antonio community would be furious if they trade Duncan, who is a Spurs icon and still has a couple more years of decent basketball left in the tank, so I don’t think they would give away THE Spurs legend. Tony Parker has trade value, but he's still young and the team could be built around him (since good point guards are hard to come by). My bold offseason prediction: Ginobili’s gone after this year.

On to Memphis: the most unsung hero of the series so far is Tony Allen. Here is a guy who won a title with the Celtics three years ago, and now he is providing his veteran championship experience to guide this young Memphis team. He is truly leading by example and exhibiting the effort needed to pull off an upset of this magnitude – gathering nearly every “50/50” loose ball, making timely baskets, and just showing a lot of poise in general. Even when he’s on the bench, he’s constantly cheering on his teammates regardless of the score of the games.

In the playoffs, young teams have a tendency to feel the pressure against veteran teams like San Antonio. But they have truly shocked the world and taken complete control of the series, and have already proven to the world that they are not a true 8^th seed. I could see the Spurs winning at home in Game 5 and potentially make a comeback. However, only 8 teams have come back from a 3-1 deficit, but a veteran team like the Spurs can do it. Given how badly Memphis has outplayed the Spurs, I think this next series is the more likely to see such a comeback..

Atlanta 3, Orlando 1

Howard's played well, but he's getting
virtually no help from his teammates

This turn of events can very well derail my playoff bracket, as I picked Orlando to edge Chicago in Round 2. There’s a couple things I overlooked: for one, they acquired HUGE upgrade over Mike Bibby at the trade deadline with Kirk Hinrich, whose defensive abilities are vastly underrated; he’s one of the big reasons why both Jameer Nelson and Gilbert Arenas have been wildly inconsistent.

Atlanta’s strategy of single coverage on Dwight Howard has proven to be very effective. This strategy itself shows how much better of a head coach Larry Drew is than Mike Woodson, who was fired after the Magic absolutely destroyed the Hawks by a combined 100+ points in a 4-game sweep. In any case, Drew has thrown every one of his bigs at Dwight in a one-on-one battle, with Jason Collins being the most effective Howard defender. On offense, Jamal Crawford and Al Horford have fully exploited the Magic’s awful pick-and-roll defense so far.

Here’s why I don’t think it’s over: for one, Hedo Turkoglu and his teammates can’t possibly play this poorly forever. Also, despite the total no-show from everyone but Dwight Howard, every game has been relatively close so far. Despite shooting an atrocious 2-23 from the three-point line, Orlando somehow still had a chance to win (even without Jason Richardson, who was suspended for his role in a scuffle with Hawks backup C Zaza Pachulia. Interestingly enough, Joe Johnson has been as mediocre as he historically has against Orlando in the playoffs – but sixth man Jamal Crawford has been on fire during this series – leading the team in scoring in 3 out of the 4 games so far. The fact that Atlanta can’t play much better than they have been, combined with the chance that the Magic are due for a somewhat decent game from anyone not named Dwight, leads me to believe they can extend this series. I will be attending Game 5 tomorrow night in Orlando, where I expect the Magic to turn things around and win. From there, it’s just a matter of pulling off one road win in Atlanta before having a chance to edge the Hawks in Game 7. I don’t think they are as outmatched as the Spurs are with Memphis.

More likely than not, however, Atlanta should keep this up and oust the Magic in one of the next two games. After years of difficulty vs. the Howard-led Magic, it appears that Larry Drew and the Hawks have finally concocted a good strategy to defeat them. If Crawford stays hot and Turkoglu continues to struggle, the Hawks should pull off an upset.

Category 2: MILDLY UNEXPECTED

Boston/NY, LA/New Orleans, OKC/Denver

Boston 4, New York 0

Anthony and the Knicks fell apart in Games 3 and 4

I predicted that the Celtics would have a relatively easy time with the Knicks. What I didn’t expect was that the Celtics would be quite fortunate to win the first two games of the series, which both came down to the wire. But after the first two fiercely competitive games in which Stoudemire and Billups suffered injuries, the Knicks basically just packed it in during Games 3 and 4. A tremendous outburst from Carmelo Anthony (42 pts, 17 rebs) kept the Knicks within striking distance in Game 2, but he was unable to sustain his level of play during the games at MSG. Having said that, it was really about Boston playing better after struggling in the first two games. Rajon Rondo looks like he’s back to his early-season form, and Pierce and Allen have finally regained their touch from the perimeter.

Those who are Knicks fans shouldn’t be too bummed about this. For one, it’s nice to finally play in games that matter – and I’m sure most Knicks fans are thankful for that. If the team can continue to build around Stoudemire and Anthony, there is hope for them. However, they still need to address the defensive liability of those two. I also have my doubts as to whether Mike D’Antoni’s system can go as far as winning a title. But the team has definitely taken a turn for the better, and should be relevant again for the next few years. You gotta give huge props to GM Donnie Walsh for turning this around after Scott Layden and Isiah Thomas did their best to destroy the franchise. Before Walsh took over, I thought this team was doomed for decades of futility.

With the way the Celtics closed out the series, I can’t wait for the Boston-Miami 2^nd Round matchup; that will be by far the most intriguing series in the next round.

Los Angeles 2, New Orleans 2

The only reason why I didn’t put this in Category 1 is that I think this Laker team is coasting in this series. I don’t mean to take anything away from the Hornets, who have been brilliant – especially Chris Paul. After guys like Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo, and Deron Williams have emerged as the NBA’s best point guards this season, Paul kind of got overshadowed. After completely torching the Lakers in two games so far, including a dominant triple-double performance in Game 4, he has immediately put himself back in the running as the league’s best floor general.

Nobody on LA has been able to contain CP3 this series

Obviously, Chris Paul is the biggest reason for the Hornets’ victories against the defending champs. But I have to give credit to at least one of his teammates – Carl Landry. Many Hornets fans criticized the midseason trade of Marcus Thornton to Sacramento in exchange for Carl Landry, given Thornton’s frequent scoring outbursts as a member of the Kings thereafter. But in this series, Landry has fully demonstrated his value facing the league’s best frontcourt tandem of Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol. What he lacks in size when matched up with them, he makes up for with pure defensive effort. He has filled the void for the injured David West splendidly, and he should be getting more credit for the Hornets relative success (and Gasol’s struggles) thus far.

As for the Lakers, their effort has been erratic. Pau Gasol has been inconsistent, perhaps only partly due to Landry’s defense. With Kobe ailing with a sprained ankle (an injury I’m sure he will play through), the Hornets are two more superhuman CP3 performances away from pulling off a stunning upset. Sixth man of the Year winner Lamar Odom had an awful Game 4, along with the rest of LA’s bench. Still, I think the Lakers will wake up and dominate Game 5 at home, perhaps with a better sense of urgency to close out this series. I expect Phil Jackson to come up with ways to somewhat contain CP3 (or at least his teammates), and to ready his team to face the winner of Dallas and Portland.

Oklahoma City 3, Denver 1

While most did expect the Thunder to eventually figure out this scrappy Denver team and advance, nobody anticipated such a lopsided outcome. It even took a career playoff high 41 points from Kevin Durant to edge Denver in Game 1. Since then, however, it’s been basically all OKC. Denver managed to avoid a sweep by winning Game 4 at home, but it appears that they’re on the verge of a summer vacation.

My only theory for the series going by quicker than expected is that Denver’s lack of star power has finally caught up to them. Their solid play since the Carmelo Anthony trade has been well-documented, but the playoffs are all about having stars that can get the job done in the heat of a playoff series. With so much attention on Westbrook and Durant, opportunities arise for Serge Ibaka (who had a monster Game 3 performance – 22 pts/16 rebs) and the rest of the team. Since Denver doesn’t have any such players that command double teams, it puts a lot of pressure on George Karl and the Nuggets to create scoring opportunities. Without a true go-to scorer, the Nuggets will always have trouble closing games – especially against a team like OKC with two budding superstars.

Ty Lawson and the Nuggets appear to be outmatched by the Thunder's talented team

With the Spurs fading, the Thunder appear to be a lock to go to the Western Conference Finals. However, note that they lost 3 of 4 games against Memphis in the regular season. I will reassess that matchup if Memphis goes on to beat the Spurs, but just note that by no means are the Thunder guaranteed to roll over the Grizzlies.

Category 3: JUST AS EXPECTED

Chicago/Indiana, Miami/Philadelphia, Dallas/Portland

Chicago 3, Indiana 1

D-Rose has been stellar as expected, but the Pacers
haven't rolled over by any means

As expected, Derrick Rose is having his way with the Pacers – averaging . What we didn’t expect is how resilient of a team Indiana is. Much like Denver, they have a deep and talented roster despite no true superstar. Danny Granger is their best player, but no superstar (remember that he got benched in favor of the likes of Rudy Gay and Andre Iguodala during the World Championships last summer). But Granger, Darren Collison, Paul George, Roy Hibbert, and Tyler Hansbrough are all holding their own against Chicago, minus allowing Rose to dominate the series. If not for the furious rally in Game 1 and Rose’s crafty game-winner in Game 3, we could be looking at a potential 6 or 7 game series. Guess the East is not nearly as weak at the bottom as everyone thought.

What’s particularly disturbing for the Bulls is the relatively poor play of Carlos Boozer. Here’s a guy who has struggled against the elite power forwards of the NBA (e.g. Duncan, Gasol), and in this series he’s having trouble keeping up with Pacers F Tyler Hansbrough. In Game 1, Hansbrough just had a field day against Boozer – going for 22 points on a barrage of jump shots. Boozer’s a total defensive liability, which is why I thought even Orlando’s frontcourt would give him problems. If things go the way they have been, he will be going up against Al Horford – another guy who can make perimeter jump shots and also beat other bigs off the dribble. I would expect him to struggle then, as well, if Hansbrough is giving him problems. Nevertheless, Chicago moves on and can probably exhale soon knowing they won’t go up against Dwight Howard.

Miami 3, Philadelphia 1

Had Miami not inexplicably reverted back to going to LeBron James as their closer, this would have been an easy sweep. I’m not sure if head coach Erik Spoelstra is trying to give LeBron some confidence by entrusting him with the ball during crunch time, but it’s safe to say that he, for whatever reason, never comes through in those situations. When it comes to FG% of potential game-winning or game-tying baskets, Miami is dead last in the league. Allow me to be even more redundant than I have been about this very subject: LeBron HAS to be held accountable for Miami to hold such a miserable stat like that. We KNOW D-Wade is their best clutch player, so they shouldn’t divert from having him be the closer.

Miami's Big 3 are all having their way vs. Philly

Although Philadelphia has played well, they are clearly inferior in terms of talent. Doug Collins, a Coach of the Year candidate, has turned this Sixer team around and turned them into a playoff team. More importantly, last year’s 2^nd overall pick, Evan Turner, has finally been showing signs that he can play. That, more than anything, has to be a relief for Sixers fans regardless of what happens in this series. There’s about a 0.1% chance that they can upset Miami on Wednesday, but things are looking up for this squad.

Dallas 3, Portland 2

This could be one of the very few chances Brandon Roy
will have left to be playing at this level

A very entertaining series, which was widely expected to be as such. Of course, Dallas's Game 4 collapse reminded everyone of their repeated practice of showing 0 killer instinct when it comes to closing out opponents. I was originally thinking that this particular team would not show those same qualities as the previous disappointing Mavs teams, but it appears that I’m wrong. They may still close out this series, but NOBODY is scared of them. Ask anybody who’s won a championship – they would verify this: in the playoffs, you need to have a certain swagger or intimidation factor if you want to win. The Celtics have that. The Lakers have that. The Heat have it. Dallas? Nobody was or is afraid of them. Portland has further exposed their mental fragility, which will hurt them in the next series against LA.

For Portland, it was awesome to see Brandon Roy have a great game. Fresh off his complaints about not getting much playing time in the first three games, he responded with a fantastic performance and was the main driver behind Portland’s 23-point comeback win. However, these kind of performances probably won’t be too consistent Without any MCLs in either knee, he will struggle with injuries throughout the rest of his career, unfortunately. But if he’s able to play at a high level in spurts, that’s as much as the Blazers could hope for. Against Dallas, they have a chance to make one last push and potentially take the next two games to win the series. The Mavs are clearly the more talented team at the moment, but they will always be vulnerable without a killer instinct against a resilient team like the Blazers. For now, I’ll stick with my original pick of Dallas in 7.

NBA Playoff Predictions Part III: NBA Conference Semifinals and Beyond

2011-04-16T18:29:00.003-04:00

Every year, we see the same trend through the second round of the playoffs. NBA haters, to this point, will scoff at the lack of upsets in the 1st round and spew off some hogwash about how boring the NBA playoffs are if all the top seeds advance as predicted. The East, in particular, has such a large gap between the 4^th (Orlando) and 5^th (Atlanta) seeds on down, which is why no 1^st round series there will be all that interesting.

What the haters must understand, though, is that the uncompetitive games and matchups from the 1^st round are coming to an immediate halt starting in the 2^nd round and onwards. From the 2nd Round on, all pretenders are weeded out and it's a battle of the contenders from then on. At this point, outcomes become extremely hard to predict. Regular season records between teams will mean virtually nothing to this point, especially with all the heavyweights involved. And, in a 7-game series, NBA coaching staffs are able to put together scouting reports that are more detailed than you can imagine. The margin for error for all these teams, to this point, will be minuscule.

I’ll try to predict the 2^nd round on based on my 1^st round predictions, though do know that I will make these predictions again regardless after the 1^st round is over (especially if my 1^st round predictions are wrong). I honestly don’t really know who’s going to win the title this year – it really is going to depend on who faces who going forward, since the fortune of teams will vary greatly based on matchups.

EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (4) Orlando Magic

Season Series: Bulls, 3-1

Prediction: Magic win 4-2

I suspect I will be the minority in this prediction. Hear me out: these are one of those matchups that might be favorable for Orlando. I still stand by the fact that Orlando got really bored of the regular season, especially Hedo Turkoglu. Hedo WILL step up in the playoffs, and has always been very effective at running the Magic offense – especially in clutch situations. They still have deadly shooters all over the court, even if JJ Redick is dealing with an injury. I suspect Howard and Bass to give the Bulls frontcourt fits, especially Carlos Boozer.

By the way, as I’m writing this, I’m watching Game 1 of the Bulls-Pacers. Even if they didn’t accomplish the furious rally in Game 1, I fully expect the Bulls to win the series handily – though you have to take your hat off to Tyler Hansbrough and the Pacers for making this series interesting. While I knew Boozer is an awful defender (and have mentioned that before), I didn’t expect Hansbrough to exploit him this much. On offense, Boozer has had tremendous difficulty against the elite bigs of the NBA (see the last several Laker-Jazz playoff matchups and his awful performances against Pau Gasol). Against a guy like Brandon Bass, I expect him to have the same difficulties. Joakim Noah holds his own against most centers, but not Dwight Howard; Noah’s only 0-rebound game came in a 107-78 loss against Howard and the Magic earlier this season. If the Bulls utilize their other bigs – Taj Gibson and Omer Asik – a bit more against the Magic’s formidable frontcourt, then they will fare better and may be able to win the series.

For now, I’m predicting the Magic to utilize their deadly inside-outside game. With Howard controlling the paint, Rose is going to have to take on a crazy load offensively and create scoring opportunities for his teammates. The one guy who could screw this up for Orlando is Gilbert Arenas, who has somehow gotten worse as the season progressed. If he is guarding Rose, he will get lit up just as bad – if not worse – as Boozer will by Howard and Bass. Nevertheless, unless Rose has a monster performance for the ages (and I wouldn’t be surprised if he does), I think the Magic will find a way to hang on. The Rose-led Bulls have never been past the 1^st Round, and I think their inexperience will catch up to them against the veteran Magic. Chicago is a great team, but they aren’t quite there. Yet.

(2) Miami Heat vs. (3) Boston Celtics

Season Series: Celtics, 3-1

Prediction: Heat win 4-3

These are two teams that have gone in opposite directions lately, though the Celtics proved last year that limping towards the finish of the regular season is not indicative of how they’ll perform in the playoffs. Still, the loss of Perkins and Nate Robinson will catch up to them in this series. If Shaq was healthy, I could see him giving the weak Miami frontcourt some problems. But he’s not – he’s literally played 5 minutes since February 1^st. The guy probably hasn’t done a full workout in a year, which is probably why he’s bound to sprain something if he exerts any energy whatsoever.

Even with their shortcomings, the Celtics are still going to be a very tough out, and I anticipate this series going down to the wire. If Rondo, Allen, Pierce, and KG log heavy minutes, they will keep the games close. But I have no faith in their supporting cast to hold their own against Miami, not that the Heat’s role players are any better. Overall, I think Miami’s improved over the course of the season and the superstar trio will overmatch Boston’s aging roster.

WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (4) Oklahoma City Thunder

Season Series: Spurs, 3-0

Prediction: Spurs win 4-3

OKC is a popular pick to win this series, especially given the fact that these two teams have gone in opposite directions since February. The Thunder have gone 13-3 since acquiring Perkins (and not by coincidence, Ibaka’s improvement), while the Spurs have stumbled to the finish and barely held on to the 1 seed. Many think they peaked too early, and are a popular pick to lose this series given Ginobili’s health issues. Those are all valid arguments, but I am banking on Ginobili to regain his form and for Tim Duncan to take on a bigger load offensively. They are the West’s version of the Celtics with regard to turning it on for the postseason. Don’t forget that they were the 7^th seed last year and completely dismantled Dallas in their first round matchup, albeit that was the Mavericks we’re talking about. The Thunder are much like the Bulls, in that they’re still a very young and talented team. But inexperience may hurt them against a team like the Spurs.

I could very well be wrong, especially if Ginobili or any other Spur isn’t 100% healthy. But I think people continue to dismiss the Spurs way too quickly, and they will shock the world even though this technically wouldn’t be an upset.

(2) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (3) Dallas Mavericks

Season Series: Lakers, 2-1

Prediction: Lakers win 4-3

A few weeks ago, I would have picked Dallas to steal this one from the Lakers. This team, as I’ve mentioned before, is built to beat them. Now, after seeing them lately, I have my doubts. Unlike the Celtics, Lakers, or Spurs, I do think this team needs to be in a good groove heading into the playoffs and can’t just turn it on. Assuming Dallas has a tough time with Portland, they may be too worn down against the well-rested Lakers (assuming they have an easy time with New Orleans), allowing Bynum, Matt Barnes, and the other less-than-100% Lakers to get some rest before facing the Mavericks. I still think Dallas will give the Lakers some tough matchups, particularly with Nowitzki spreading the floor if he’s matched up with Gasol. But Phil Jackson will find a way to get in the head of the Mavericks, which is probably not too hard for him to do.

EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

(2) Miami Heat vs. (4) Orlando Magic

Season Series: Tied 2-2

Prediction: Heat win 4-2

The two Floridian teams have experienced up-and-down seasons. But after all their struggles, here they are in my version of the Conference Finals. One can’t help but point out that Miami will have no answer whatsoever for Howard, who is bound to dominate the series. However, in the end, Miami’s suffocating defense will overwhelm the Magic’s perimeter players. Howard will get frustrated having to constantly help out his teammates that will get abused by Wade and James slashing their way to the rim, which will possibly lead to foul trouble on his part. Over the course of the series, that will wear on Orlando.

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (2) Los Angeles Lakers

Season Series: Tied 2-2

Prediction: Lakers win 4-1

An OKC-LA conference finals matchup is what everyone wants to see. After the Spurs ruin that possibility, LA is their worst possible matchup of any elite team in the playoff bracket. I just can’t help but remember LA’s complete beatdown of the Spurs on March 6^th in San Antonio, where they completely manhandled the Spurs and led by as many as 32 points in that game. Ultimately, I think that’s going to resemble the dynamics this series more so than any of their other regular season matchups. As great as Duncan is, he will be worn down by Gasol and Bynum in the post. Ron Artest will probably get matched up against Ginobili, who tends to struggle against physical defenders. This leaves Kobe on Jefferson, making the Spurs’ only matchup advantage at the point guard position (Parker on Fisher).

NBA FINALS

Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Season Series: Heat won 2-0

Prediction: Heat win 4-2

This is the dream matchup for David Stern and the NBA. The presence of Bryant, Wade, and James will make for TV ratings galore. As I’ve written before, Miami matches up better with this Laker team than anybody in the league. With Miami having home court, they should be able to impose their style of play on the Lakers. With their stifling defense, Wade and James don’t both have to play well. If Wade continues to give Kobe problems on both ends of the floor, that will allow LeBron to focus his energy on offense and continue to be a Laker killer. Of all perimeter superstars, James is bothered the least by Artest’s physical defense. Also, while Gasol has a matchup advantage on Chris Bosh, Bosh can space the floor with his consistent 17-18 foot jump shot and keep Gasol honest (i.e. away from the paint on defense), as can Zydrunas Ilgauskas against Andrew Bynum.

Miami is the one team that you can say is truly not afraid of the Lakers, and I think this would show in the playoffs. The only question is whether Miami can get there – I could see them having trouble against the Bulls if Orlando fails to eliminate them. But the playoffs are about matchups (sick of me saying that yet?), and Miami should be able to capitalize on their offseason splash of bringing their dynamic trio together.

This would be a storybook ending to what has been a true roller coaster ride. It appears the team finally figured out the right formula for winning: let LeBron run the show for the first 3 quarters, and then have Wade be the closer. They've also managed to get Bosh more involved, as his numbers have picked up as the season progressed. For them, it would be very impressive to win a title in their first year under incredible scrutiny since the Big 3 announced their "Decision." Winning a title would be the only way that would make their welcome party look like a good idea.

Again, nobody is ever 100% correct in predicting every playoff series, so I will reassess these predictions as each round progresses.

NBA Playoff Predictions Part II: Western Conference First Round

2011-04-15T15:22:00.002-04:00

Although I’m not calling any upsets in either conference, it doesn’t mean the first round won’t be worth watching. The 1^st round usually serves as a good measuring stick for teams to get a feel for each other and, with 7-game series matchups, weeds out the pretenders. I predicted that no Eastern 1^st round series will go past 5 games, but I assure you that won’t be the case in the much deeper Western Conference.

Anyway, let’s get on with it:

WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFFS – FIRST ROUND PREDICTIONS

(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (8) Memphis Grizzlies

Season Series: Tied 2-2

Prediction: Spurs win 4-2

This will be a much more competitive series than people may think. If Rudy Gay was healthy, I would think this series would go the full 7 games. But it will still go 6 because Memphis has become a very good and underrated team. Even without Gay, they have athleticism at all positions on the court. Acquiring Shane Battier was huge for their postseason run, and he was a big reason why they held off Houston in their bid for the 8^th seed. Marc Gasol has improved noticeably and has displayed a wide array of skills in the low post – much like his brother – and will be a handful down low along with Zach Randolph.

The Spurs are, once again, dealing with injuries as Manu Ginobili hyper extended his elbow during the regular season finale last night. Still, they have Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and a much improved (from last year) Richard Jefferson. They play a different brand of ball than they did in years past, simply because their two stars (Duncan, Ginobili) are getting older and the offense hasn’t run through them as much. Bottom line: Popovich is an all-time great coach, Duncan is an all-time great player, and I can’t see them losing in the first round – not as a 7 seed (like they were last year), and especially not as a 1 seed. Not this year, anyway. How far can they go? I still haven’t decided whether they can beat Oklahoma City; I have to see if they can stay healthy through this series. You better believe that Duncan will step up during the playoffs, despite averaging career lows in several stat categories during the regular season.

(2) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (7) New Orleans Hornets

Season Series: Los Angeles, 4-0

Prediction: Lakers win 4-0

This is, in all likelihood, going to be the most uncompetitive first round matchup in the West. On any given night during the first round, if there’s too many 1^st round games on to nationally televise all of them, this will be the game that should get pushed to NBA TV while the others would be on ESPN or TNT.

Without David West, the Hornets has no low post options. Okafor is an above average rebounder and low-post defender/shot blocker, but has a very limited offensive skill set (side note: remember when people thought Orlando should have drafted him over Dwight in 2004? Considering how much as people criticize Howard’s offense, imagine the criticism Okafor would have received had he been drafted 1^st overall). It will be interesting to see whether Chris Paul, who has clearly lost some of his explosiveness through a few injuries, can still carry this team in the playoff atmosphere. Is he motivated enough, or is he thinking about playing for MJ and the Bobcats?

Only a handful of teams can beat the Lakers, and the Hornets are far from being one of them. The big question mark for the Lakers going forward, as usual, is Andrew Bynum’s health. Either way, Bryant and Gasol are in for putting up monster numbers throughout the series – the Hornets have no answers for either of them. The Lakers lost 5 straight prior to the end of the season, but they knew they would have the 1^st round of the playoffs to turn the switch back on. If I were to bet on the one series that would be the most lopsided in terms of average margin of victories, this would be the matchup I would bet on. Going forward, I don’t see why Chris Paul would be motivated at all to play for this team next year. His situation next year and the subsequent drama will mirror that of Carmelo Anthony’s last year.

(3) Dallas Mavericks vs. (6) Portland Trail Blazers

Season Series: Tied 2-2

Prediction: Mavs win 4-3

This is by far the most popular pick for an upset in this year’s playoffs. LaMarcus Aldridge has emerged as a great 1^st option for the Blazers, and the main reason why they’ve been able to sustain the degraded health of former alpha dog Brandon Roy. Add Gerald Wallace (aka ‘Crash’) to the mix at the trade deadline and you have your hands full playing the Blazers.

The Mavs’ mental fragility has been well-documented, and Portland is a less-than-ideal first round opponent for them. However, in the end, I think Dallas will find a way to edge this team out. If Brandon Roy is unable to play for any stretch, the team might have trouble putting points on the board. Dallas still has a well-balanced team on both ends of the floor, and Dirk and Terry have proven their ability to hit clutch shots. Tyson Chandler and Shawn Marion have evolved into great compliments to Nowitzki, and they should be able to make things difficult for Aldridge in the paint.

Portland hasn’t won a playoff series since 2000, when they had an epic collapse against the Lakers after being up double digits in the 4^th quarter of Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals. Paul Allen has done his best to clean up the team’s image and revamp this team into a contender. But with their current injury curse, I still think something will go against them in the end. Even against Dallas.

(4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (5) Denver Nuggets

Season Series: OKC, 3-1

Prediction: Thunder win 4-2

Behind the Dallas-Portland matchup, this may be the most intriguing matchup in the playoffs. Both teams made big shakeups around the trade deadline, and both have played very well since. Nobody expected Denver to be in this position, which further proves that George Karl can coach players who don’t have big egos and readily buy into his system. New acquisitions Raymond Felton, Danilo Gallinari, and Wilson Chandler have fit in seamlessly, creating a new era of better ball movement and teamwork than the previous squad with Melo being the go-to scorer.

That being said, the Thunder have become an elite contender with Kendrick Perkins in the middle. Since the trade, Serge Ibaka moved to the starting 4 position and has been extremely effective on both ends of the court. Before the trade – with Jeff Green at the 4 and Krstic/Ibaka at the 5 – the Thunder were very vulnerable and thin at the front line. While their scoring goes down a bit without Green, they become a much tougher team with Perkins at the 5 and Ibaka at the 4. I haven’t even mentioned the two best players in this series – Durant and Westbrook. As good as Denver has been lately, they will be overmatched by the two superstars in a 7-game series.

Since I didn't pick any upsets, I'll roughly estimate the likelihood for any upsets happening. Here's what I perceive to be the odds for upsets (by series), barring unforeseen injuries:

Indiana over Chicago – 0%

Philadelphia over Miami – 0%

New York over Boston – 20%

Atlanta over Orlando – 25%

Memphis over San Antonio – 20%

New Orleans over Los Angeles – 0%

Portland over Dallas – 45%

Denver over Oklahoma City – 35%

Feel free to berate me if any of my predictions are wrong. In the meantime, let the playoffs begin!

NBA Playoff Predictions Part I: East 1st Round

2011-04-13T21:55:00.001-04:00

It’s playoff time! We have 4 months of high-level, intense, and must-see basketball that will wash away the disgusting taste of this year’s March Madness out of everyone’s mouth. Contrary to popular opinion, it really is hard to predict what will happen in this year’s playoffs. If the Lakers, Celtics, or Heat win this year, you’ll hear everyone say, “I knew that was gonna happen.” But you don’t. Last year, some thought Boston was going to lose in the first round, including die-hard Celtic fan Bill Simmons. Instead, they had the champion Lakers on the ropes until late in the 4^th quarter of Game 7. This year, four Eastern Conference teams have a legitimate chance to take the title, as do 3 Western teams (in my opinion, of course).

For now, I will just go over the 1^st round matchups of the Eastern Conference that are already established.

EASTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS – ROUND 1

(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (8) Indiana Pacers

Season Series: Bulls won 3-1

Prediction: Chicago, 4-0

Let’s get this one out of the way. This will be by far the most lopsided series of the playoffs, though there have been underdogs in the past that have made 1^st round series more interesting than most predicted. Be that as it may, Indiana has absolutely no answer for Derrick Rose. Not many teams do, but most playoff teams have better defensive weapons than Darren Collison and TJ Ford. Interestingly, though, Indiana’s lone victory during the regular season vs Chicago included a 42 point outburst by D-Rose. So, if Indiana manages to let Rose (who only had 2 assists that game) be a scorer and clamps down on the rest of his teammates, they may steal a game. They have the talent to do that, especially since they have rebounding machine Jeff Foster combating with Noah and Boozer. But I don’t see them making it any more interesting than that.

(2) Miami Heat vs. (7) Philadelphia 76ers

Season Series: Heat won 3-0

Prediction: Miami, 4-1

More intriguing of a matchup than the Chi-Ind series, but still not all that intriguing. Miami swept the regular season series, and two of those games took place before December – back when the Heat were struggling and many thought they were a team in turmoil. Since then, then went on to win 10 straight on the road in December, had an up-and-down roller coaster-type season while the Big Three tried to develop some cohesion amongst themselves; they’ve only gotten better as a team since then, so Philly will have their hands full. The Sixers have a very athletic team that could give the old guys on Miami (Bibby, Ilgauskas, Howard, House, etc.) some problems, and Andre Iguodala has the talent to somewhat contain either LeBron or D-Wade. Doug Collins and his squad may make things interesting for a game or two, but in the end, Miami shouldn’t have any trouble.

One question about the Heat, though: where is Udonis Haslem? Considering all the annoying news bits you hear about this team, the team is sure quiet about him. Is he anywhere close to returning? When he tore a ligament in his foot early in the season, he was expected to return sometime in April. If Miami wants to contend for a title, they’ll need to get him healthy. It’s not like Haslem is a guy that needs to play multiple games to get in a groove in order to help his team; his effectiveness lies in hustle plays and defense. Those instincts will return very quickly once he returns.

(3) Boston Celtics vs. (6) New York Knicks

Season Series: Celtics won 3-0

Prediction: Boston, 4-1

This is by far the most interesting series of the Eastern Conference on paper so far, but only because of the presence of big-name players on big-name teams. Without beating around the bush, I don’t think the Knicks can win more than a game. Each game might be competitive for about 3 and ½ quarters, but I don’t think the Knicks are poised enough to close out a game against the veteran savvy of the Celtics. Say what you want about Boston and how they’re not as good as last year – I’ve been as critical of them as anybody of their awful play since the Perkins trade. But as I mentioned earlier, nobody thought they were going to be any good last year, either. In the end, the Big 4 will turn it on and, in a 7-game series, will know how to get in the heads of Amare and Melo, players with volatile personalities.

All three regular season games between these teams were competitive, but the Celtics managed to get the upper hand in the 4^th quarters of each of those games. I know regular season games usually don’t matter, but I don’t see that trend changing for this particular matchup.

(4) Orlando Magic vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks

Season Series: Hawks won 3-1

Prediction: Orlando, 4-1

See? I don’t always go by who wins the regular season matchups. Anyway, let’s face facts: the Magic aren’t as good as they were last year. But neither are the Hawks. In this series, they’ll still have trouble matching up with Dwight Howard. These teams only matched up once since the trade that brought Jason Richardson and Gilbert Arenas to Orlando, so this regular season matchups have to be taken with a grain of salt.

A big x-factor in this series is Joe Johnson. For some reason, he hasn’t been able to come through for this team in the playoffs. Why Atlanta decided to pay him the most money out of ANY big-name free agent last summer is completely beyond me (and everybody else, including Atlanta fans). I’ve seen him as a matchup nightmare for most teams in the league, especially Boston. If the Hawks somehow got matched up with Boston last year, I honestly think they would have won. But they didn’t – unfortunately, they got obliterated by Orlando and lost each game by an average of 20+ points. I have said this before and I’ll continue to reiterate this: playoffs are ALL about matchups. Just because the Celtics won the East last year, it doesn’t mean they could beat every team in the East; they just happened to match up with the teams they were suited to beat.

And since the playoffs are about matchups, I do think the Magic, among the other 3 teams in the top 4, have a legitimate chance to win the title. Although they are somewhat limping here at season’s end, I still stand by the theory that they’re just bored of the regular season; once they warm up against Atlanta in the playoffs, they’ll have a GREAT chance of surprising everyone and make the Finals. They are a team better suited for the playoff grind as long as Dwight’s anchoring the middle. As I’ve said before, they will sorely miss Marcin Gortat and Mickael Pietrus – but not Vince Carter. The one team I can’t see them beating is the Lakers. But I’ll get to that later. In this series, I don’t see any differences in the dynamics of this matchup to that of last year.

I’ll predict the Western Conference matchups (and subsequent rounds) as soon as the seedings are finalized after tonight’s regular season finale.