• The News - Big Ben Ailing
• The Games - Seattle has WRs!
• The Questions - Man love for Roy Williams?

• The News - Big problems at RB in Pitt.
• The Games - Hey KC you found Larry Johnson
• The Questions - Erndog is back

• The News - Lots of toes and groins
• The Games - Kev has man-love for Chris Perry
• The Questions - Snowman is at it again!

• The News - FWP out?
• The Games - Brian and his Lions suck!
• The Questions - Jagwired - not so much!

• The News - Lot’s of toes
• The Games - Robinson is back in Seattle
• The Q’s - We pick a dudes whole team and his wardrobe

• The News - LT has a bad wheel
• The Games - Bad Call Broncos
• The Questions - It’s all about Sproles

• The News - High profile Injuries
• The Games - Remember, Courtney Taylor
• The Phone - Hello?

Now, you may have chalked up the whole thing to happenstance and a fluke play on Bernard Pollard’s part (unless you’re Randy Moss, that is). However, I have no doubt that the fantasy gods saw what was going on in drafts this year and were very displeased. Mr. Pollard was simply the tool with which they chose to smite the fantasy infidels. (No, Mr. Pollard, I didn’t just call you a tool; well, not a “tool.”) The fantasy gods are vengeful gods. It might be time to consider sacrificing a virgin. (Not to advocate suicide for so many of you. I kid, I kid.)?

But we warned you about the pitfalls of taking a quarterback in the first round of your draft. We hit you with all kinds of stats, trends, historical analysis, and enough “magic formulas” to make Walt Disney blush. We told you that a QB coming off one of the greatest seasons in NFL history had nowhere to go but down, and that wasn’t even taking the risk of injury into account. But nooooo, you just couldn’t resist, could you? You couldn’t say no to Brady’s rugged good looks, his babe impregnating prowess, and his fancy-schmancy 50 touchdown passes from 2007 (passes, mind you, worth nothing this year). You had to have him. So much so, that his average draft position on many sites this summer was as high as fifth or sixth overall. Ridiculous.

And now what do you do? Hopefully you grabbed another decent QB, but I?m guessing you didn’t, because you probably spent the next seven or eight draft picks on running backs, wide receivers, and early tight ends to try to cover up the cascading holes you created by taking Brady in the first round. Your backup QB is (if you’re lucky!) likely of the Jason Campbell, Jon Kitna ilk. You also probably said to yourself, “Who cares about the one bye week if I’m rolling Brady the other 12?” Well, now you care. And now you’ll be rueing that Brady pick for the next 12 weeks, as other teams beat you like a Tibetan monk at a Chinese police picnic.

Some of you are probably getting defensive, saying, “The RB I would’ve drafted in the first round could’ve been injured just as easily.” And to you I’d say: Well, he wasn’t. Not yet at least. And if he was, at least you?d still have a top QB to rely on, as opposed to now, when you’re stuck with a lower-tier QB and, at best, second- and third-round RBs. Trust me on this. I drafted Shaun Alexander with the eighth overall pick last year and still made it to the second round of the playoffs because I drafted Brady in the third round! You can survive the loss of a big RB, especially if your league is configured with flex spots, etc., that compel you to draft depth at the skill positions.

But am I saying this is an injury that’s impossible to recover from? No, not at all. The best and brightest among you will recover from the loss and go on to successful seasons, assuming you hit on some sleepers and can make a couple clutch free agent pickups. Trust me, I know. I?m a guy who owned Brady last year and got knocked out of the playoffs by a team that started Sage “The Jewish Rifle” Rosenfels at QB in Week 15. You don’t need a top guy to win, just a hot guy. (Wait…you know what I mean.) The point is, it’s only week two, bye weeks haven’t even started yet, and you’re stuck cringing at your new number one QB?s matchup while sifting through the fantasy dumpster, trying to decide if Matt Cassel can actually do anything that doesn’t involve a clipboard, or if Vince Young is totally batshit crazy? That?s the type of thing you want to be doing for speculation’s sake, for fun, not out of desperation.

Suddenly fantasy football seems a little less fun, doesn’t it? Unless you’re one of the 11 owners in your league who didn’t draft Brady. In that case, you?re probably basking in the schadenfreude and finding this article infinitely more amusing. Remember, kids, take an RB in the first round next year.

It’s the will of the Gods!!

• The News - Something happened in New England.
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• The News - Ray Rice might get some time
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• The Channel - The fantasy Channel Launches on BTR
• The News - Brady questionable for 17 weeks?
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• The News - Ronnie back in, in Miami
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• The Mom - Horrid!

It was a weird draft to begin with. There was a huge run on RBs after I grabbed Addai with the 1:5 pick, so by the time the snake got back around to me in round two, there was absolutely no round two RB value left. I had to go WR (Reggie Wayne). Same thing in Round three…WR (Andre Johnson). In round four, I had to go RB, so I grabbed Turner…then got Run dMc in round 5. Magic formula complete. But enough about me…

At some point, one of the drafters left the room for some reason, leaving autodraft on. His first few picks were ok, but nothing to write home about. Peyton in round one…Ocho Cinco in round two…Holt in round three. I finally realized that he had ducked out when he picked Eli in round four. Eli and Peyton both have week 4 byes. The AUTODRAFT had kicked in.

Things only got worse from there. In round five, the autodraft treated him to Shaun Alexander. Yes, THAT Shaun Alexander. Round six was much better with a Tony Gonzalez pick at TE…early but at least he’s on a roster. In round seven, the autodraft got caught up in a kicker run, and landed Adam Vinatieri. Again, waaay early, but he’s on a team at least.

The autodraft must have found its stride then, because the next few picks, while questionable, were at least reasonable. Rudi in round eight, the Bears D in round nine, and Javon Walker in round ten. Then it all went to hell. Autodraft picked Henry in round eleven. Not Chris Henry. TRAVIS Henry. Autodraft then decided that this poor bastard needed a backup TE, so it went and got Alge in round 12, who has the same bye week as Tony G. Thanks autodraft!

Nothing like having a backup kicker, just in case, right? Autodraft thinks so, so my man got Robbie Gould in round 13. At least his bye week is different than Vinatieri’s! Unfortunately, you can’t say the same thing for the backup D that autodraft got for my bud in round 14…the Broncos! Week 8 bye…same as the Bears. DOH!

Let’s do a small recap. On this guy’s roster, he has Shaun Alexander and Travis Henry, two RBs that (as of this writing) are not on a team. One of them WON’T be on a team this year for certain (smoke up, Travis!), and the other probably shouldn’t be. What could make matters worse, you ask? You got it! Cedric Benson was nabbed with the round 15 pick. You ROCK autodraft!

The good news is, autodraft recognized that it made an error in grabbing a backup QB that had the same bye week as the starter, so it graciously opted for a third QB in round 16. Alex Smith! Woohoo!

Round 17 was a relatively benign little choice of Darrell Jackson from Denver. After all that tasty autodraft goodness, it seems almost…anti-climatic.

Watch this guy win the whole damn league.

• The News - Peyton’s big ‘ole sack!
• The Mail - Apparently Lyle Sucks!
• The Leagues - BaltimoreMike 3 years in a row!

You might remember that at this time last year I warned you about the different characters you’d encounter at your fantasy draft. That, my young Padawans, was only the first lesson. This year, I’m back to give you the lowdown on the draft itself, and what you should and should not be doing with your league when the big day arrives. (I’m assuming, of course, that your league will draft together as a group, in person; if you only participate in online drafts, you’re missing much of the point, but that’s another article). So whether you’re the sucker stuck running your league’s draft, or just the poor schlub with the last pick, you’ll want to heed my every word. After all, draft day is the day you look forward to all year, right? Don’t screw this up!

DO have ten or 12 teams in your league. These 6- or 8-team leagues I’ve seen are a joke, where even the guys on the waiver wire are studs. These leagues are like those cartoons where Bugs Bunny and Daffy Duck stand at close range, shooting each other in the face with cannons. There’s no skill involved! Everyone just points their big guns at everyone else and hopes for the best. If you need more friends, put up a post in the forums! Conversely, anything larger than 12 teams is just too much. I’ve been in some of these 14-, 16-, and even 20-team leagues, and, I’m sorry, if I have no choice but to draft and start a Bears wide receiver or a Texans running back, I’m taking my ball and going home. Find a balance, people. Ten to 12 teams is just the right size.

DON’T hold your draft any earlier than the third week of the preseason. Hey, we’re all excited as hell for the football season, but there’s no reason to jump the gun and suffer from “premature draft-ulation.” There’s still way too much left up in the air at this point. The starters haven’t played enough meaningful time, position battles are still going on, and guys are going to get hurt in the last couple games. It’s just too early. Hell, even the Cardinals still look good! If you must get your fix, head over to Mock Draft Central and practice. Sure, it’s the nonalcoholic beer of fantasy drafts, but you’re just looking for a taste anyway. And you won’t be making any mistakes that you’ll have to live with all year. I’m looking at you, guy who took Willis McGahee in the second round on July 28. (Oh, but don’t worry, running backs with bad knees always come back strong, and right away. Promise.)

DO hold your draft at a restaurant or bar. Many establishments are actually catering to fantasy football drafts nowadays, offering private rooms, specials on food and drinks, and reliable WiFi access. That’s friggin’ clutch, because then you don’t have to spend five hours cramped with 11 other dudes in a basement swamped with mildew and beer farts. You also don’t have to worry about spilled beverages, missed toilets, and your bitterest rivals knowing where you live. The only downside is the potential cost, but if you can’t pony up for the single most important day of the season, it might be time for a little heart-to-heart with your balls. Call it a “gut check”—whatever. This is an investment in your season.

DON’T hold your draft at a strip bar! Yes, a lot of them are offering attractive packages, but therein lies the one major drawback: distraction. This applies to places like Hooters, too. Some of the troglodytes in your league have enough trouble concentrating during drafts on your back patio while your neighbor’s wife weeds her garden. How are they going to cope with Melissa Midwest gyrating in front of the draft board? (I’ll wait while you Google her….Finished?) If you do go this route, don’t blame me when you end up drafting John David Booty, Reggie Bush, Jerious Norwood, Steve Breaston, James Hardy, and Neil Rackers. (Sensing a theme here?)

DO make your league a points-per-reception league. Take back some of the power from the running backs in your draft, and screw the yardage purists. Sure, RB’s will still be by far the most valuable players in your league, since all but Rudi Johnson will also benefit from the PPR scoring, but it adds another wrinkle to your strategy, and it may make for some tougher (and occasionally easier) decisions on draft day. I even recommend tossing in some bonus scoring, too.

DON’T make your league an individual defensive player league. I know, you’re a savvy fan and IDP leagues let you prove it to your buddies. But you’ll soon realize the error of your ways, having extended your draft by 11 roster spots and, more importantly, about three hours. While you’re at it, why not draft offensive linemen and punters? Get yourself a backup long snapper in the thirty-ninth round. It’s called “fantasy football” for a reason, professor. If you want a true simulation, play Head Coach 09.

DO collect all of your league fees before the start of your draft. I don’t care how easygoing you want to be, you need to get all payments up front. Everybody knows at least one of those “spot me now and I’ll pay you later” guys. Accommodate him, and the next thing you know, you’re getting every excuse in the book. He has to pay child support. His strung-out sister needs “medicine.” A relative of deposed Nigerian royalty cleaned out his bank account. Then November rolls around, his team is 1-9, and he’s lost all interest in the league. Good luck collecting. Screw that! Nobody drafts before they pay up. Somebody forgot his wallet? Enact a Goodfellas-style pistol-whipping in the driveway—you know, as a reminder for next year.

DON’T play in a league with your spouse or girlfriend. Look, I love my wife dearly. I’d take a bullet for her, but we’ll never play in a fantasy league together. There’s sharing common interests, and then there’s surrendering your most precious men-only outlet. This is the latter. Every guy needs an escape where he can act like an ass, string together obscure movie references, and discuss the finer points of good cleavage in his most colorful language. Even if you’re the lucky SOB who found someone so special that she can roll with this, her presence will stifle other league members. Trades can look like collusion, you’ll never hear the end of it if she beats you (oh, and she will), and God help you in the bedroom after you run some smack her way on the league Web site. You wouldn’t sleep with the dudes in your league, so don’t play fantasy football with your lady. It’s not cute. Or maybe it is. And maybe that’s the worst part.

So there you have it. Commit these rules to memory, follow them to the letter, and you’ll enjoy a more rewarding fantasy football experience. Besides, you can still go the nudie bar after the draft.

As always, feel free to post your own ideas in the forums.

• The News - Favre is “fatigued”
• The Mail - Sack-attack
• The Phone - Sorry IronAfro - Addai will be fine!

• Interview - With EA’s Ronnie Morales
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• Mail Sack - It’s big and nasty!

• The Sickness - Kev sounds like death!
• The News - Packers, first team to offer a player millions NOT to play.
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• Live - The first live show on http://www.blogtalkradio.com/TheFantasyFootballGuys
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• Mail - A huge sack!

Standard Deviation
Last year in my article on the Magic Formula, I described standard deviation. It’s the amount one thing differs, on average, from another. For our purposes here, think of it as the “plus or minus.” We’ve all heard someone say, “He scores an average of 30 points, plus or minus 5.” That plus or minus is the standard deviation. If you’re a masochist, go ahead and read the Wikipedia entry. As for understanding it completely, don’t worry; what’s important to know is that it measures consistency. From a fantasy perspective, “consistency” refers to how widely varying a player’s point total will be from week to week. The smaller the point swing, the smaller the standard deviation, and thusly the more consistent a player is.

For the 2007 season, who was the best fantasy QB? Tom Brady, of course. But what if I asked you this: Who was the most consistent QB? Tom Brady? Nope. It was David Garrard. To help you understand what I’m talking about, let’s take a look at the top five fantasy QBs. [For more players and positions, download my Excel spreadsheet.]

Now compare that to a list of the most consistent QBs, those with the lowest standard deviation.

As you can see, this is a very different list. Some of the QBs’ point totals here are actually quite low. Standard deviation, remember, can only tell us how consistent a player is. So in the case of Tarvaris Jackson, for example, the standard deviation alone does us no good because Jackson is consistently bad. On that basis, standard deviation alone is basically a useless stat in fantasy football. However, if we take a player’s standard deviation and subtract it from his weekly scoring output, we end up with an incredibly useful number, his minimum expected value.

Minimum expected value (MEV) is best defined as the lowest total points per week you can expect from any given player. By knowing this number, you can predict a player’s relative value. David Garrard, for example, can reasonably be expected to score at least 12.07 points each week (his average, 18 points, minus his standard deviation, 5.93 points). Take a look at the top five QBs by MEV.

Each week, we can expect Tom Brady to put up at least 18.73 points. No, he won’t do it every week, but he’s likely to do it much more often than not, and more importantly, he’s likely to do it way more often than anyone else. So there, that proves it: Tom Brady is the top fantasy QB. Duh. No, the real benefit of MEV is that it highlights guys like David Garrard and Big Ben, too. In fact, on a weekly basis, we can expect Garrard to outscore every QB in the NFL besides Brady. The math doesn’t lie, and if you subscribe to the theory that consistency is king, MEV can be an invaluable compass come draft day, especially as you hunt for value in the middle rounds, where championship seasons are truly built. Where did Garrard, Hasselbeck, and Big Ben go in your draft last year? I bet it wasn’t in the first five rounds.

The best part about MEV is that it’s universal. It works across players, teams, sports…you name it. Check the spreadsheet again where I detail QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs. Just a quick glance and you’ll see why guys like Garrard, Ronnie Brown, and Andre Johnson could be the key to your season.

Discussion
After this article was posted, TFFG forum member 7grain pointed out an important fact about SD and MEV on the comments thread: “One Standard Deviation, by definition, encompasses 68% of occurrances. (34% above the average, and 34% below the average). Beyond one STD is 32% of occurrences: 16% above 1 STD and 16% below 1 STD. So you could “geek it up” a little bit more, but not scare people away, by saying that a player beat their MEV 84% of the time. And that’s 11 games out of a 13 game season.” If it seems like too much, just know this: He is absolutely right. Any player should beat their MEV 84% of the time.

• The Draft - Are we too late?
• Questions - You ask… we…

• The Picks: We break down every single pick in the first round - Sure to be 100% wrong.
• Questions: We answer a few…

There are two ways to look at the Ravens offense and what they need to do to get back to the playoffs. The old way and the new way. The old way is the Steelers way…draft well, build your team from within, and keep your best players. The new way is draft well, build your team from within, keep your best players, and score big in free agency. The Ravens really need to go the new way. Drafting a QB this year will NOT get them to the promised land quick enough to suit the fans OR the front office. Not to Mention Ray, whose window is closing fast. The bad news is, the free agent pool isn’t very deep this year in the areas that the Ravens need to address. But the news isn’t all bad.

QB
Kyle Boller isn’t the answer, and Steve McNair should hang ‘em up. They need a QB badly…here are the FA choices:

Derek Anderson, RFA - Would have to give up a lot to get him.
Rex Grossman, UFA - Boller may be better.
Daunte Culpepper, UFA - It’s doubtful whether or not he will ever return to his old level of play.
Josh McCown, UFA - May be the best choice of the bunch.
Quinn Gray, UFA - Played well when given the chance, but remain unproven as “The Man”.
Ken Dorsey UFA - Please.
Ryan Fitzpatrick RFA - Who?
Drew Henson UFA - Uh, yeah.
Cleo Lemon UFA - Could be a decent candidate…seriously.
Jared Lorenzen UFA - More of a sideshow act than an NFL QB.
Jamie Martin UFA - Didn’t know he was even still playing.
Anderson would be a great fit, but The Browns have indicated that they plan of keeping him. McCown is an interesting option. He played ok when given the chance in Arizona, but then Leinart came along. He had some success, pre-injury, with the Raiders. Cleo Lemon did a decent job on an awful Miami team, but I think Ravens fans would burn down M&T if he was signed as the QB of the future.

Maybe sign McCown AND draft a QB is the option. Josh is capable of managing the team, and the youngster can season for a season (!) and the Ravens can shoot for 2009. I wouldn’t draft my QB in the first round, though. More on that later.

WR

Like a lot of teams, the Ravens are short a playmaker at WR. Here’s the list of FA WRs:

Randy Moss, UFA

Bernard Berrian, UFA

Patrick Crayton, UFA

Bryant Johnson, UFA

Drew Carter, UFA

Andre’ Davis UFA

Justin Gage UFA

Devery Henderson, UFA

Antonio Chatman UFA

Keary Colbert UFA

Terrance Copper UFA

Malcom Floyd RFA

Doug Gabriel UFA

D.J. Hackett UFA

Az-Zahir Hakim UFA

Taylor Jacobs UFA

Jerome Mathis RFA

Samie Parker UFA

David Patten UFA

Marcus Robinson UFA

I don’t see Moss anywhere but New England next year, so take him off of the list. Do you see a #1 WR in there anywhere? MAYBE Crayton, if he can stay healthy and not be a pinhead. MAYBE Henderson, if he can stay healthy. Maybe Berrian, if he has the right QB (hey, Grossman is a FA…bring them both in!). I like Hackett a lot, but I think Seattle will try to keep him (and I think he’s more of a slot guy). Bryant Johnson from the Cardinals is interesting, but he was disappointing in the time he had to start in place of Boldin and Fitz this year. None of the other guys are that impressive, but many of them are better than what the Ravens have and a few could emerge if given a chance. The Ravens can look to the draft for a WR, but not in the first round.

RB

Willis McGahee proved that he is one of the best RBs in the league…not a top 5 guy, but certainly top 10. Musa Smith is a capable backup. The Ravens lack depth at the position, and can find value in the draft in the 3rd and 4th rounds.

O-Line

HERE’S where the first round pick is! This year, OT talent is all over the first round, and with Ogden deciding if he wants to play a 13th year, the Ravens could secure the spot for another 12 years. Jake Long from Michigan may not make it to pick #8, but Sam Baker from USC might, and Chris Williams from Vandy most certainly will. Even Jeff Otah from Pitt is intriguing. Not the sexiest choice for a first round pick, but downright necessary if the Ravens hope to improve on a 5-11 season and compete in the AFC North any time in the near future.

I invite spirited debate on these opinions, as always.

Willie Parker should have a great game this week. He’s better suited to run on this surface than on a muddy, slick field. The Rams have a below-average run defense and only three teams have allowed more rushing touchdowns, so a big game by Parker is possible — maybe 120ish yards and 1-2 TDs.

Working on a dry field and with no wind also should help Santonio Holmes. With his speed, he’s Pittsburgh’s best deep threat, and those plays are easier to hit in these ideal conditions. He moves up our rankings this week, and it comes at the expense of Hines Ward, who’s better at working short routes underneath.

Above-average matchup for Heath Miller. He’s a big part of Pittsburgh’s red-zone offense, and the Rams have struggled with tight ends. St. Louis has allowed a healthy ratio of touchdowns to tight ends (7) as wide receivers (12), and that’s been a big part of Pittsburgh’s offense (which is at 11 TDs to tight ends and 17 to wide receivers).

Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t thrown for 200 yards in any of his last five games, but a lot of that has been weather related. That won’t be a problem on Thursday. In his six previous games, Roethlisberger averaged 243 passing yards, with 16 TDs in those six games. He’ll face a defense that’s below-average in terms of passing yards and passing touchdowns.

St. Louis
We’ll call this a slightly above-average matchup for the St. Louis passing game. Pittsburgh ranks 4th in pass defense, but some holes have cropped up recently in their secondary. Over the last nine weeks, they’re one of only two teams that’s allowed 3-plus TD passes four times. And the Steelers have also lost four of their past five on the road, with all but one of those losses against teams with losing records (Cardinals, Broncos, Jets). So maybe Marc Bulger, who’s from Pittsburgh, can hit some plays and keep the Rams competitive in this game. When he’s relative healthy and gets some time to throw, Bulger is a top quarterback. In his last four relatively complete games, Bulger has averaged 247 passing yards, with 5 TDs in those four games. Certainly, whatever touchdowns the Rams score in this game should come through the air. The Steelers have allowed 18 passing versus only 4 rushing TDs, while the Rams have scored 15 passing versus only 5 rushing. So every time the Rams score in this game — and they should score 2-3 TDs — there’s about an 80 percent chance it will be through the air.

Torry Holt isn’t having a great year. He’s at 75 receiving yards per game. That’s about 15 yards below what you’d hope for him. But he’s still a scorer. He’s caught 7 of the team’s 15 TD passes. So if the Rams throw 2 TDs in this game (and there’s a good chance they will), then Holt almost certainly will grab one of them. It’s an Above-average matchup for Isaac Bruce as well.
It’s a below-average matchup for Steven Jackson. Pittsburgh is having some problems right now, but this is still one of the league’s elite run defenses. Only Minnesota and Baltimore have allowed fewer rushing yards, and the Steelers have allowed a league-low 4 rushing TDs. In their last 62 games, the Steelers have allowed only 31 rushing touchdowns. So the odds are stacked against Jackson getting in the end zone. We’re not moving him too far down our board, however, because Jackson is a heck of a player. He’s also healthy, at home, and in top form. He ran for 143 yards and a touchdown last week against an above-average Green Bay run defense. He’s certainly capable of punching out 100 yards and a touchdown, even against this defense. Jackson, recall, ran for 142 yards and scored 4 TDs in a game against Minnesota’s top-ranked run defense last year. Bottom line is… he’s a must-start.

The Texans are actually favored in this game, believe it or not.

Denver

Much to Lyle’s unhappiness, Selvin Young has wrested the starting RB job away from Travis Henry. Henry is listed as tops on the roster, but SY has started the last two games, and has gotten the bulk of the carries. It looks like Young between the 20s and Henry in the red zone. Factor in a few carries by Andre Hall, and the situation gets even murkier. Either way, somebody is going to get some big-time yards, because Houston ranks 23rd against the run (even though they play better at home).

The last two weeks for Jay Cutler have been a contrast in efficiency. Last Sunday, he played his best career game: 20 of 27 for 244 yards, with 4 TDs. The week before that, he had his worst career game: 16 of 32, 2 interceptions and a fumble. I figure he’s good for a TD and 250 in this game.

Brandon Marshall is the unrivaled beast in Denver now (Javon who?). He caught 10 for 115 yards and 2 TDs last week against Kansas City. He is a definite start this week.

Brandon Stokley could sit out this week with a knee ding. That might mean an expanded role for Javon, um…WALKER, right. Walker sat out 7 games this year, and still isn’t 100%. Either way, keep both of them on the pine this week.

I picked up Tony Scheffler a couple of weeks ago, and I’m considering putting him in this week. With Denver’s WR problems, he might get a larger part of the game plan.

Houston

I never thought I’d ever say this, but “if only Ron Dayne were playing.” There, I said it. Seriously, if Dayne were in the plans for the Texans, I would say give him a roster spot against this spotty Denver run D…but wait. Dayne hasn’t practiced this week. Looks like Darius Walker gets the nod. He could actually do pretty good with this match-up, but it’s playoff time, and I can’t recommend you hang your season on this particular undrafted free agent. Adimchinobe Echemandu not only has an unpronounceable name, but he also has no fantasy value.

Sage Rosenfels gets another start! Denver has been soft against the pass, Champ Bailey notwithstanding, but I have to imagine you have a better option than Sage.

Andre Johnson proved me wrong last week (I called him my sit). This week he draws Bailey, but Johnson is such a stud, he could catch 8 balls for 100 yards and a touchdown anyway. Start him.

This is not going to be an easy game for the Redskins. It’s hard enough to shorten your week to accommodate a Thursday game, but when you also factor in the fact that the team attended Sean Taylor’s funeral on Monday, that just compounds the issue. On top of all that, Washington is 5-7, and some players on the team may just be ready to phone this one in.

Now, the emotions aside, the ‘Skins have a better-than-average chance to compete in this game. They have the 10th ranked defense against the run and have allowed only 8 rushing TDs this season. With Benson out for the year, The Other AP is a slight improvement as a featured back. He did have a decent game this last Sunday, producing 67 yards on 22 carries against the Giants. If the weather turns lousy, figure that AP becomes a slightly better than average start.

The worse the weather, the worse Chicago’s passing outlook becomes. Rex Grossman is questionable AT BEST, so when you shove a wet ball into his hands, it’s a recipe for disaster. Even with decent weather Grossman is averaging .5 TDs per game. Yeah. Lousy weather = sit all Bears QBs and WRs. Fair weather = Bernard Berrian is a better than average start. Everybody else, forget about.

Washington

As mentioned above, the short week, the funeral, and the lost season could cause some apathy on the part of the ‘Skins. Going strictly by the numbers, however, not all hope is lost. The Bears defense really stinks: 27th vs the run and 25th vs the pass. Yikes! Is this the team that went to the Super Bowl last year on the strength of its D?

Clinton Portis is banged up, which is no big surprise. He’s suffering with a sore back and ankle, and hasn’t been very productive recently. There has been talk of limiting him this week, and giving Ladell Betts more work. Hopefully we’ll find out more about that as we approach game time.

Jason Campbell has quietly started to have a decent season. In his last four games, he’s averaged 270 yards. He is still a bit shy on the TD aspect of the game, but that will come with experience. That being said it’s difficult to give him the nod for this week, since the overall state of the team is questionable.

As for the receiving corp, the only guy I can recommend with a straight face is Chris Cooley. The dude is a stud, catching 7 of Campbells 12 TDs, and has almost 600 yards for the year. Call him a start.

I can say that if you have the ‘Skins ST/DEF, this may be a good week to start them, especially if the weather turns crappy.