With Thanksgiving only days away, I had hoped that this would be a post reflecting on all things fantasy football that I was thankful for as we entered the holiday season and my team cruised toward the playoffs. Unfortunately, after last week’s 35 point drubbing at the hands of The Lady Thief, (my 3rd loss in a row, and 4th out of 5) The Abby Wambachs find themselves outside of the playoff picture for the first time all season. Even worse, I’ll need to win my last two games, make up a lot of points, and get some help from the teams above me to make the postseason. Perhaps naming my squad after a U.S. women’s soccer player doomed me to a season of getting so close, only to choke it all away at the end, just like the American ladies did at the World Cup last summer. Or maybe my poor roster management and questionable trades have torpedoed my team. I’d like to think I made all the right moves, and that even my considerable fantasy brilliance couldn’t overcome that fickle bitch Fate, but really, who knows?

Either way, as we approach the day of the year when we are meant to take a moment and appreciate the good things in our lives, I find myself filled with nothing but fantasy hate. Cold, naked, ugly, bubbling, boiling, festering fantasy hate. And I’m looking for some people to blame it on. (As I mentioned above, it seems highly unlikely to me that any of this could POSSIBLY be my fault. Also my fantasy rage is only being exacerbated by the Nissan commercial set to “The Most Wonderful Time of the Year,” with the word “time” changed to “sale” that is currently on my television. I hope there’s a special place in hell reserved for people who take Christmas songs and change the lyrics to try to sell me stuff. And if these are the same jackholes responsible for the Garmin Xmas commercials from years past? Please know, you are the Hitlers of the advertising world. Do us all a favor and throw yourselves in front of a train.) Perhaps some of you are suffering through similarly disappointing seasons and will find my anger cathartic. Others may take this opportunity to be thankful your teams are playing well, and that you are free from the fantasy stress and angst that is probably taking years off of my life as I type this.

Whatever your current fantasy situation is, I hope you enjoy reading about the people who have ruined my season:

Andre Johnson – Oh Andre. You were the key to my team this year. You were going to give me RB1 performance at a WR price. And for the three weeks you were healthy, you did, averaging about a point less per game than most expensive player in the league Adrian Peterson. By week four I was so happy I could have pulled a muscle patting myself on the back as easily as, well, as easily as you injured your hamstring you worthless, egg shell fragile, bane of my fantasy existence. What the hell man? What. The. Hell. Stretch before the game you over muscled china doll. Do some effing yoga during the week.
I understand that stuff isn’t any fun. My pregnant wife roped me into doing her prenatal yoga video with her once, (She claims this video is considerably less challenging than regular yoga. I am almost positive she is lying.) and I made it about half way through before, as I stood in my living room with my left leg pointed out, and my right leg on the floor shaking like Michael J. Fox in a freezer, the instructor in the video happened to look in my direction, smile condescendingly and say “Now let’s hold that for another 10 seconds.” and I shouted “Don’t you dare smile at me you arrogant c**tface,” and my wife kicked me out because “yoga is supposed to be relaxing, and you aren’t being relaxing.” But my hamstrings don’t matter to anyone other than me. You’re a professional athlete Andre. I needed you to be nice and loose out there, and you really let me down.

Still, I’d probably be ready to forgive and forget as you returned this week to lead my resurgent squad into the playoffs except for…

Matt Schaub – The year is 2002. The Virginia Cavaliers are the only thing standing between the defending ACC Champion Maryland Terrapins and second straight ACC title. The Lady Thief is a UVA student, and she is kind enough to invite me, a Terps fan, down to Charlottesville for the game. I am very much looking forward to watching Maryland claim another championship on the Hoos’ field. And then Matt Schaub throws for three TDs as UVA rolls the Terps 48-13. After the game, I am left holding TLT and her roommate’s purses while they rush the field and a sea of coat and tie clad, Vineyard Vine catalog reject, douchenozzles rains down upon me saying things to each other like “Careful on those bleachers Wellington, you know how clumsy you can be in your penny loafers” and “What a frightfully exhilarating athletic contest that was Smith. We’ll have to enjoy a nip of sherry to celebrate when we return to the fraternity house. I must say old boy, I’m positively giddy” and I try to figure out a way to hang myself from the aisle railing with two purse strings.

Oh how I LOATHE you Matt Schaub.

And now the one time I need you to stand in the pocket like the statue that you are and use all of the power you have in your slightly better than mediocre arm to throw the ball to Andre Johnson you go and break your goddamn foot, leaving me pinning all of my fantasy hopes to…

Matt Leinart – and his not even close to mediocre arm. We all know how this plays out. Leinart will sail a few early passes, maybe one or two of them get picked off, and then the Houston offense will go into a shell as they try to win with Arian Foster and a stingy defense. Maybe they’ll win, maybe they won’t, but Leinart won’t care. He’ll care about whether the two well endowed blondes in the third row want to have a hot tub party in his hotel room later (If? Of course they will baby. You’re Matt Effing Leinart), and, if they do, whether room service carries Nebuchadnezzar’s of Cristal, and, if they don’t, whether they’ll be able to track one down on a Sunday, and, if they can’t, whether that one shady equipment manager might be able to score him some ecstasy instead, but whether or not the team he is quarterbacking wins the game? Matt Effing Leinart doesn’t concern himself with such trivial matters.

So obviously I should be trying to figure out a way to salvage this situation and make one last playoff push, but I can’t concentrate because of…

The Miami Dolphins, Rex Ryan, Mark Sanchez – TEBOWMANIA!!!! God I hate all of you. Miami, it turns out you don’t suck nearly as much as we thought you did, and yet you can’t catch an onside kick to beat the Broncos? Rex Ryan, you appear to think very highly of your coaching abilities, yet you were happy to get in a ground, pound and punt game with Denver instead of trying to get up early and force Tebow to beat you with his arm? Mark Sanchez you are a talentless piece of garbage. Your coach’s awful strategy still might have worked if you hadn’t thrown a pick six to make it a one score game. You are a homeless man’s Joe Flacco and I hope you contract syphilis. (Assuming you haven’t already.) Thanks to you collective tributes to suck I can practically see the Teboner raging in Peter King’s pants as I read his weekly columns and my Twitter feed is clogged with idiotic questions like this one, from @TheBigLead: “Is it better for the NFL if the Packers go 16-0 or Tim Tebow makes the playoffs?” and even more idiotic answers like this one, from @Krupy4445: “Use the “mom” test. My mom knows/cares about Tebow, not about Packers,” to which @TheBigLead replied “Great Point!” Great point? GREAT POINT? HOW IN THE BLUE HELL IS THAT A GREAT POINT? THE ONLY “POINT” THAT HAS BEEN PROVEN HERE IS THAT @Krupy445′s MOM IS AN ASSHOLE. HOW CAN SO MANY OF YOU BE SO STUPID? HOW AM I EXPECTED TO FOCUS ON MY FANTASY TEAM WHEN EVERY TIME I TURN ON THE TV OR GET ON THE INTERNET I AM ASSAULTED BY THE CULT OF TEBOW? AAAAAAAHHHHHHH.

Still, despite all of this, my team might still be in this thing if it wasn’t for…

Jordy Nelson – Or as The Lady Thief calls him, “My Great White Stallion.” (I don’t actually know that the previous statement is true. But I don’t know that it ISN’T true either.) Jordy dropped 24 points on me last weekend to lead TLT’s squad to their dominating victory, and if the NFL pregame shows are any indication, part of his success was due to the fact that he is white. I think this is stupid. Jordy Nelson succeeds because he’s a damn good young receiver playing in the NFL’s best offense. To suggest otherwise is insulting both to him, because it diminishes his hard work and ability, and to the African American cornerbacks who cover him, because it diminishes their intelligence. That being said, do I wish that, prior to last weekend’s games, I had sent an anonymous email to Raheem Morris claiming that his name is actually spelled J’ordy Nelson and twenty six years ago his mom took a road trip to San Francisco with a few college friends, got drunk, and had a one night stand with Jerry Rice? Why yes, yes I do.

And one more for the road…

Rob Gronkowski – Not fantasy related, but every time I see him interviewed I picture him getting bottle service in the VIP section of some dirty club filled with Boston’s version of The Jersey Shore cast and saying things like “how you doin’ baby girl? My name is Bad Daddy Rob, and I play tight end for the Pats. When I’m not doing that I love to just bro out super hard with my bros. We’ll just bro it up like crazy…sometimes we’ll bro the shit out of some Madden, other times we’ll sit around and talk about all the sluts we’ve nailed, and sometimes we just get drunk, oil each other up and wrestle. But not in a gay way. Bad Daddy Rob is no homo. Are you calling me a homo? You’re a homo. I’ll kick your ass.” In other words I’m pretty sure Rob Gronkowski is a gigantic tool.

So there you have it. One man’s slightly fractured road map of fantasy football failure. I hope that your season is going considerably better than mine is, and that your holiday weekend is filled with good food, friends, family, football, and, most importantly, fantasy glory. Happy Thanksgiving Thief Nation. Cheers!

In this installment of my weekly column, I will discuss a very cool new phenonem in the world of sports gambling – Live Betting.  It is exactly like it sounds; Live betting is betting within the game while the game is on live.  As the game goes back and forth, live odds are constantly calculated and adjusted (for the most part) by mathematical algorithims.  Proferssional bookies employed by sportsbooks also play a role, adding their adjustments and assesment when necessary.

The key here is the mathematics.  Math is finite; you’re either right or wrong.  Because of the unpredictable nature of sports, a factor that doesn’t exist in mathematics, there can be a lot of value in Live Betting.  In my experience, football and basketball are two of the best in this case because of the huge point and momentum swings throughout a game.

Take the Week 2 Sunday Night game for example, Eagles @ Falcons.  The Eagles started out strong and took a nice lead over the Falcons.  With the score 24-21 Eagles in the 3^rd quarter, Vick went down with an injury with the Eagles in the Red Zone.  I don’t remember the exact number, but the live betting point spread was in the range of -5.5 to -6.5 for Philly.  Shortly after, the Eagles scored a TD to make it 31-20.  Now this is where the fun stuff happens.

Watching the game, I knew Vick was hurt, but the announcers hadn’t said anything yet with regards to the severity of his injury and the probabilty of his return.  They showed a few replays on the broadcast, and it didn’t look good to me.  This created an opening for me to get excellent value on my bet.  The betting lines hadn’t caught up to what was acutally going on in the game yet.  The live betting line balloned to -9.5 Philly right after they scored a touchdown….that’s when I jumped on Atlanta at +9.5.

Shortly after, the commentators got word of Vick’s concussion and questionable return, and announced it on the broadcast.  Immediately, the live betting spread was adjusted to -6.5 Philly before the ball was even kicked off on the next play!  I was able to milk an extra 3 points out of the betting line just by watching the game closely, and following the live betting online.

Now this was a specific circumstance where an exremetly valuable player got injured and played a huge factor in my sucessful bet, but all it took was closely watching the game, along with the lines, and striking when the momentum swings of the game haven’t been adjusted for yet in the betting lines.

This strategy can also work great in basketball.  I like to stick with the elite teams (Lakers, Bulls, Celtics, Heat, Mavs, etc.) versus the shitty teams (Washington, T-Wolves, Raptors, Cavs, etc.) when playing this strategy.  Often times in the NBA, good teams will come out very flat, or fall alseep for a 5-10 minute stretch and go in a 10-15 point hole, or sometimes more.  There are more large point swings (10-15 points or more) in basketball than any other sport, due to subs, injuries, and momentum shifts, but mostly because in the regular season guys don’t play hard until the second half, or even the fourth quarter.  This creates value opportunities in our betting.

For example, lets use the Celtics in this exercise (just for you Thief).  Boston is at home to Sacramento, likely a -10 favourite or something along those lines.  As the game starts, the Kings come out hot and get an early lead.  Garnett is a little slow getting warmed up and Rondo gets into early foul trouble.  Mid-way through the second quarter, the Kings have a 15 point lead.  In the NBA, 14 points is nothing more than a few turnovers and quick three pointer or two.  That Boston -10 line when the game started is likely down to +5 or more.  Sometimes you can even get the elite teams at +10 or higher!!  I’ll take Boston to lose by less than 10 points more often than not.  Now you know Boston is going to make it close and probably win the game, but even if they lose you have an extra 5 points give or take to cover your bet.  It’s easy money.

There are a few important rules to live by when live betting:

1)   Don’t gamble under the influence. I can’t stress this enough.  Before or after the game starts, if you’ve had more than 1 or 2 beers, just stay away, hang out with your buddies and enjoy the game.

2)   You have to actually WATCH the game live to live bet. Seems obvious, don’t you think?  If you’re watching the game, you can see the momentum shifts coming.  If Kobe gets injured when the Lakers are down by 15 and when the line is at +10, you’re not going to bet on the Lakers.  If you weren’t watching the game live, you might not know that Kobe was injured, and you would’ve likely just thrown your money away.

3)   Try to Stick to the Elite teams in Live Betting. I’m talking ELITE teams, not above average here.  More so than pre-game gambling where there are some good opportunities to bet on some less than top-tier teams, once the game starts, skill and coaching takes over.  I trust the skill of the elite teams and coaches, the sub-par teams aren’t worth the risk.

4)   Don’t force it. (that’s what she said…).  No really, don’t force it in live betting.  If the line isn’t there, or you don’t like what’s going on in the game, then just wait it out or don’t bet at all.  Just like poker, you can only lose what you put in the middle.

My Weekly Picks

San Francisco -9.5 vs. Arizona

We’ve heard it all this year about San Fran’s 8-1 SU and 8-0-1 ATS records, and boy has it been impressive.  They have one of the top defenses in the league, and are #1 against the run.  With the Arizona run game in shambles, they’ll be put in many 3^rd and long situations with a shitty quarterback against a very good defense.  Their offense just put up 27 points against the Giants last week, and now they face a Cardinals defense that is 21^st vs. the run and 24^th vs the pass. I’ll take my chances with the points.  Go 9ers.

Green Bay -14 vs. Tampa Bay

Sure it’s a huge number, but there is no chance in hell I’m betting against Aaron Rodgers at home.  Out of their 4 home games, 3 times have they won by more than three touchdowns, and now the Pack gets the 28^th ranked Bucs’ pass defense – good luck with that one.  I believe in Dom Capers as an elite defensive coordinator, and the Packers defense showed last week they can still be very, very good.  I like the Pack to roll again.

Carolina +7 @ Detroit

Although the Panthers are only 2-7, out of their 7 losses only two have been by more than 7 points.  Detroit is banged up and still struggling to run the football, so they’re going to have to throw it a bunch against the Panters 14^th ranked  pass defense.  Don’t forget, the Lions are ranked 27th against the run, arguably Cam Newton’s best asset.  I don’t think Carolina wins this game, but you know Cam Newton is playing hard right to the whistle.  I’ll take the Panthers plus the points.

Good luck with your picks this week and your fantasy teams on the way to the playoffs.  I currently sit in first place, trying to lock up that first round bye.  Daddy needs a new TV, let’s go boys!  Follow me on twitter @timmywhitehead to chat picks and NFL this weekend.

In which Lady Thief tries to salvage the FantasySportsThief season with a recap of her championship-defending season, muses on five things she’s watching for this week (and beyond), and provides you with a suggestion for a drinking game that’s sure to be the best of the week…..

Hello, Thief Nation.  It’s been much too long since we’ve had a post from the Thief and unfortunately, we’re not getting one this week.  Thief has been busy working the trading desk per his usual insane hours (5a-1p), whipping 20+ high school kids into shape as the new head wrestling coach at a local high school, and then getting home in time to make me dinner (I made out pretty well, no?)  But probably like you, I’ve missed his insightful and funny posts, plus I’m a little peeved that I agreed to put a fair amount of shoe money into a website that sits dormant far too often lately.

To that end, I’m no Thief but I would like to share with you 1) how my season – a season in which I’m defending the league championship (which I won over the Thief, by the way)  – is going, and 2) five things I’m keeping my eyes on as our fantasy football regular seasons near their end (hard to believe), with playoffs on the horizon.

First, my season so far: It didn’t start out pretty when I drafted Arian Foster for $61 and Peyton Manning for $40.  Arian obviously has delivered since he’s returned from that MRI-tweeting fiasco (remember when that was the top story? Man, time flies…) but it was a sad, sad day when I dropped Peyton Manning for a kicker.  Dropped.  For a kicker, people.  My trash-talking email introduction to the season didn’t sit so well after I started 0-3 and 1-4.  But I’ve worked the waiver wire and let some of my players develop (see: Arian Foster) and am now riding a 5-game win streak to sit at 6-4, third in division (12-teams total, 6-team divisions), with a chance to be in second after this week, depending on how the chips fall.

Current team: QB Ryan Fitz and Carson Palmer (both WW); RB Arian Foster, Michael Turner ($45), Ben Tate (WW), and Lance Ball (WW this week); WR Stevie Johnson ($13), Brandon Lloyd ($21, how happy am I with the trade to St. Louis), Jordy Nelson ($3), and Vincent Brown (WW); and TE Tony Gonzalez (someone actually dropped him for the bye week) and Brent Celek.  Pretty pleased that I grabbed Jordy, but I was also high on Jared Cook.  Can’t win ‘em all.

Now, here’s what I’m interested in watching for this week – and beyond – in the FF season (three weeks regular, three weeks playoff for my league) –

1) The Denver Broncos. You know the stats. Last week against Kansas City, the Broncos led by Bible-thumpin’ Tim Tebow rushed the ball on 87% of their possessions.  Tebow threw 8 times and completed TWO PASSES to win the game. Tomorrow night, the Ponys get the New York Jets which boast a better defense than KC and one that has had time to watch tape on Sunday’s game.  I’m no Rex Ryan (thank God), but I’m assuming that the game plan for the Jets is to force Tebow to beat them through the air.  So the things I’m thinking about/watching for are:

a. Do I start Lance Ball tomorrow with Arian Foster on a bye? Alternatively, I start one of my WRs.  It’s a tough call.  Ball got the ball THIRTY times against KC, but he finished with 3.2 yards-a-carry (not an overly stellar stat).  The Jets know the game plan and they have a better defense than KC – although they’re not particularly strong against the run, giving up an average 116 yd/game versus San Fran at 73 (KC’s at 134).  Knowshon is out for the season, and Willis is listed as questionable….Thief Nation, what say you?

b. How many times will the Broncos throw the ball? People, I provide you with the Best Ever Drinking Game of this Week: Please plan to take a chug, a shot, or do a keg stand every time Tim Tebow drops back and lets one fly (the words ‘Hail Mary’ were never so appropriately used as they are for this Christian champion).  Keep in mind, this very well could leave you sober by the end of the game, which for a Thursday night may be not ideal for some readers.  Of course, if Kyle Orton somehow shows up on the field, pull out your preventative ibuprofen….

2) The Houston QB —> RB Situation. As a proud University of Virginia alum, even I (a lifelong Colts fan) have been behind Matt Schaub.  It’s a real shame for him to apparently be out for the season and puts the Texans – who undoubtedly had high postseason hopes – in a disappointing position.  [In unrelated but ironic news, Thief and I – in a league where we share a team – will now be starting Tim Tebow as our QB, having lost Schaub to injury.]  With Matt Leinart stepping out of the hot tubs and behind center, here’s what I’m wondering about:

a. Should I be trying to deal Arian Foster (and Ben Tate) by Friday’s trade deadline? Apparently, Leinart had a good preseason, and there are a good number of weapons on this team.  But surely the loss of Schaub is going to affect the productivity of the running game, right?  Houston has pretty easy games against the Jags next (and the Colts in what will be our FF Superbowl ) but they also face the Falcons and Cinci.  I honestly don’t think I have the time to figure out what I’d trade and get it done…but should I at least look?

3) Rookie burnout. It could be coming.  If you’ve been leaning on Cam Newton, Julio Jones, Mark Ingram, or AJ Green, you’ve got to be wondering about it, too.  Cam and Julio both were hurting this past week.  What are the chances a rookie goes down for the count – or for one of your must-win weeks?  (That said, if you’re in a keeper league and took Cam for $3 like a cousin in my league, kudos to you.)

4) Keeper decisions. In my league, you have to draft the player and keep him for the full season.  That means, I have 2 RBs and 3 WRs from which to choose.  See above for draftees and prices paid.  My guess is I’ll either go big with Arian ($61 out of $200) or go small with Jordy ($3).  I welcome your input, and would be interested in hearing who you’re thinking about holding onto

5) The Colts not losing a game this week. It’s been a tough (regular) football season for Lady Thief.  It may sacrilege to say on a site like this, but I’d rather lose Fantasy Football and see the Colts have a stellar season, with – is it too much to ask? – another Superbowl  win.  First there was Peyton.  Then there were too many more injuries to count (seriously, I said it last year and I’ll say it again, fire our training staff!).  Then there was that other Payton, the one that led a team to score practically as many points as half the NCAA basketball teams last night.  It’s hard to find anyone blameless (coaching calls have been poor too often; the Polian duo gets no props from me for management decisions of late; our owner should really stop being Justin Beiber and lay off Twitter)…..but I can count on one person: Pat McAfee.  Our punter and kickoff man probably leads our special teams in tackles and is pounding the ball into the end zone for a touchback percentage that is one of the best of in the NFL.  God bless our city canal-swimming kicker (and I say that with all sincerity; I am the proud owner of a pink “I Swam with Pat McAfee” tee shirt, thank you very much).  I suppose I could look to my friends who are Lions fans for a little advice, but really, this has to be one of the most precipitous slides in League history…and the winless Lions in 2008 don’t relate to that.  (It’s too late for me to get into the impending draft decision…so I’ll leave that for another time.)

So, Thief Nation, that’s where things stand tonight.  I can’t promise that I’ll be back any time soon, but my league opponent this week – the Abby Wambachs – has pledged to provide us with something to read next week.  And maybe, just maybe, we’ll hear from the Thief one of these days.

Until then, Go Colts.

Winning at sports betting is about creating a competitive advantage.  The sportsbooks have all the research in the world at their fingertips, so any advantage we can get over them can create great value opportunities on betting lines.  Here are a few things I like to monitor throughout the week to create some value investing:

Jumping on Bad Lines Early

The sportsbooks aren’t always perfect, however a lot of the time they are very accurate.  On a weekly basis there can be 1 or 2 betting lines that are a mistake and are bound to move up or down.  As a bettor, you have to identify these lines early and jump on them when they are released late Sunday.  Sometimes it’s tough to recognize these, so what I used to do when I was learning was to check the odds and write a few down that you think are way off, watch them throughout the week and see how you did.  Once you get good, you can start to throw some money down.  Now you won’t always be right, but what you can do if the line doesn’t move like you think it will is just hedge your bet by taking the other side.  You may have to forefit .10 or less on the dollar, but if you think you’re very wrong then it’s better than losing 100% of your bet.

Watching the Injury Bug

When the lines are generated early in the week, injured and non-injured players are taken into account.  As teams practice throughout the week, they will put out injury reports and the experts will speculate who will and won’t play.  Occassionally a mid-week report will come out saying someone has a new injury that occurred during practice, or that a player may be ruled out earlier than expected.  For example, it’s looking like this week Kevin Kolb won’t play versus the Rams.  He reportedly had turf toe after last week, but it didn’t come out til mid-week that he also has a mild foot sprain and is questionable to play this weekend.  Although they haven’t ruled him out completely, his chances don’t look good for playing from what I’ve heard.  When the line opened this week, it was St. Louis +3.5 which I liked to begin with.  Then I got whiff of the injury report and jumped on the spread immedately before the sportsbooks could adjust their lines.  Subsequently, the spread has been adjusted and/or bet down to St. Louis +1, creating a 2.5 point value for me across a key number (3).  Is there a chance that Kolb comes back and plays this week?  Sure, so I can always hedge my bet if I wanted to, but I’ll say it again – doing proper research here can create a nice advantage for us.

Understanding the Key Numbers

There are some important key number trends in NFL betting that contintinute to appear year after year.  In 17 years of point spread research, it was discovered that a game is decided by exactly 3 points 15% of the time.  The next highest percentage is a 7 point margin of victory, which occurs 7% of the time.  Almost a quarter of the time games will end with either a 3 or 7 win for the winning team, something that is really good to know if you like the favourite on a -6.5 point spread or the underdog on a +3.5 point spread.  Other key numbers are 6, 10 & 4.  You can also gain value and try to read which way the line is going to move.  This week, Baltimore opened +3.5 versus Pittsburgh.  People recognize 3 as a key number, especially in a tough divisional game, giving the game a good chance to be close.  If you like the Ravens, it would be a good idea to jump on board early to get the extra half point.  If you like the Steelers, you may want to hold off, knowing the extra half point will likely attract bettors forcing the line down to an even 3, which in this case has happened.  See where the money is going, do your research and check the lines on a regular basis.

My Weekly Picks

I’d like to apologize for my inability to post the right winning games here, it’s just really tough to pick only 3.  In the last three weeks, my FST picks record is a dismal 3-6, however I have been in the green cashing a little every week overall.  It’s a grind, if you grind long enough eventually you’ll get hot.  I feel it coming.

FST Picks Record – 9-9-0

Personal Betting Record – 38-31-2

Pick’em Record – 78-38

San Francisco -3.5 @ Washington

I’ve been looking all week at this line and I couldn’t really figure it out until now.  Other than Green Bay, San Francisco has been the class of the NFC this year.  They are 6-0-1 ATS this year, and they just covered as a 9 point favourtie last week versus Cleveland.  Granted, that game was at home in San Fran, but are the Redskins really 5.5 points better than the Browns right now, even at home?!? Some people will argue the fact that San Francisco has already had to travel three times this year to the East Coast from the Bay area, which is really the reason why I believe the line is lower than it should be.  I don’t really care about that, because they have won all three road games against some good teams (Detroit, Philadelphia, & Cincinnati) and they only had their bye in Week 7.  They’re well rested and relatively healthy.  The Skins are missing some of their best players in Moss, Hightower & maybe Fred Davis, and their run defense is ugly (see Gore, Frank).  Take the 9ers and run.

New York Giants +9 @ New England

Will Tom Brady bounce back and have a nice game versus the Giants at home?  Sure, I don’t doubt it one bit.  The problem is, Eli is quietly having a very nice season, averaging over 300 passing yards a game.  The Patroits are dead last in passing defense! This is just way too many points to be laying for the Pats.  An interesting trend in support of the Giants – since 2006 the Giants are 13-3-0 ATS as road dogs after coming off a win.  Good chance the Pats win, but no chance they cover.  Give me the G-Men.

ML Parlay: Green Bay @ San Diego & Atlanta @ Indinapolis

If you’ve been living under a rock for the past year, the Packers are dominating.  They’re 15-1 straight up in their last 16, and 4-0-1 ATS in the past 5 years coming off the bye week.  San Diego is in trouble with injuries to Ryan Matthews among others, Tolbert coming back off a concussion, and Rivers blowing chunks right now.  I do think the Packers can cover, but their moneyline odds are very, very nice this week too.

Atlanta is back on track after a very nice win in Detroit before their bye.  The Falcons rediscovered their identity versus the Lions – a ball posession, clock killing, run first team.  Now they’re playing the Colts who rank 31^st against the run! I also think the Falcons can cover their spread at -7, and I love it at -6.5, but again the moneyline odds are very attractive.  Combining the two give could give us a great return on investment this week and take a bit of the risk out of the spreads.

Good luck with your picks this week.  It’s going to be a great week of football with some excellent matchups.  Enjoy and hit me up on twitter @timmywhitehead to live chat during the games.

Before we get to this weeks post – WOW! What a baseball game last night.  I can’t wait for the game tonight.  I really hope the Cards win, I’d love to see Pujols get another ring and stay in St. Louis as I think it would be really good for the sport of baseball in general.  I’m going to throw some money on the game for fun – I will be taking the Cards, home field in Game 7 is huge!  Have fun and enjoy!

On to football!  It’s turning out to be an interesting year in the world of NFL gambling.  Big number under dogs are taking over.  It seems like there is a minimum of two double digit point spreads per week, and another handful that are a touchdown.  These are huge numbers, but it really speaks to the disparity between the good and bad teams in the league this year.  Unfortunately, I don’t forsee this going away anytime soon, so we have to adjust, look at the research, and continue to make educated decisions.  I think there are a few things contributing to this:

The Lockout.  With less time to prepare, the better teams who have been together longer and have more veterans have a significant advantage over those younger teams who had less time to gel and learn the systems during training camps and pre-season.

The Bad Teams are REALLY Bad. The bad teams in the league just aren’t getting any better.  St. Louis & Indy are battling major injury problems, Arizona’s defense is brutal, Miami and Cleveland are pretty inept on offense.  In addition, the winless teams this year (St. Louis, Miami, Indy) are a combined 2-16-1 against the spread even with Vegas placing these teams as big underdogs on a regular basis!  That’s just brutal.

So what does this mean for us?  We’ll lets have a look at some interesting trends so far this year

Double digit favourites are 5-8 ATS.  If you add in favourites by 9 points or higher, they are 9-11 ATS.  So let’s examine the teams that are put in the position of double digit underdogs and their records ATS during those games:

Carolina 1-0

Seattle 1-1

Indy 2-1

KC 1-0

Jacksonville 2-0

Minnesota 1-0

Denver 0-1

St. Louis 0-2

Interesting stuff, and it correlates to my prediction earlier in the season to stay away from big favourites if you are a beginner.  I still like to stay away from these big lines when I can, but if we can identify some really bad teams with poor matchups there still may be a play (i.e. the Rams).  When betting these big lines, research and matchups are extra, extra important.

Another interesting trend to note that is taking place this year refers to teams coming off a bye week.  Typically, you would think teams coming off a bye would have a competitive advantage versus their opponents, having an extra week to rest and prepare.  This season is actually quite the opposite.  Teams coming off a bye are 4-7-1 ATS and 3-9 straight up.  There is an interesting new rule from the CBA that could possibly be contributing to this trend – NFL teams have to give their players four consecutive days off during a bye week.  Being the first year with this rule, I think teams are struggling to adjust, and that’s why we’re seeing this trend occur.

So in conclusion, with such a disparity in the NFL the season and typical trends going the opposite direciton, an effective countermeasure is to diversify your portfolio, which will be next weeks topic.  Such things as teasers, parlays, and over/unders can be a great way to diversify your betting portfolio when the point spreads aren’t in your favour on a given week.

My Weekly Picks

Although my FST picks were (again….) 1-2 last week, overall I had my best week of the year going 8-3 on my spread bets.  SEA/CLE was a no play for me.  Of the 3 games I lost, two of those were Green Bay not covering & Baltimore laying an egg.  Looking back, I still really like those picks and would take them again in a heartbeat. Green Bay should’ve covered that game and a stinker from an elite team like Baltimore is an unforeseable outcome – everyone lost money on that game except for my college roomate and Vegas.  That’s the nature of pro sports and gambling, if you can’t roll with the punches, time to jump ship and head for shore.

FST Picks Record – 8-7-0

My Personal Betting Record – 31-25-2

Pick ‘Em Record – 70-33

New Orleans -13 @ St. Louis

You probably saw this one coming, but it’s so obvious I can’t ignore.  St. Louis has failed to cover double digit spreads the last two weeks against the Packers & Cowboys (both of which I cashed on), and they get another high scoring offense this week in the Saints that just put up a 62 spot on Indy.  Bradford still isn’t practicing and it sounds like he won’t play again this week.  St. Louis is injury riddled, can’t stop the run or pass, and can’t score to keep up with the Saints.  Drew Brees and the Saints love playing indoors as well.  I’ll take the points against the worst team in football right now.

Dallas +3.5 @ Philadelphia

Even though Andy Reid and his teams are typically very good coming off a bye (8-2 ATS in last 10 games), the rules are different this year.  In addition, Dallas has kept their losses very close this year, losing by margins of only 3, 4 & 4.  Both of the Cowboys/Eagles games last year were decided by a field goal or less.  Even though they’re coming off a bye, the Eagles still haven’t solved their problem of stopping the run (see Murray, Demarco).  I love getting the extra half point on this line because I think Dallas has a shot to win and at the very least keep it close enough to cover.

Moneyline Parlay: San Francisco, Houston & New York Giants

With such a tough lot of games this week, we have to get a bit creative.  All three of these spreads this week are -9 or higher.  I think San Fran has a decent shot to cover.  The Houston/Jacksonville spread will likely hit double digits by game time, where Jacksonville is 2-0 ATS, but I think Houston still wins the game.  The Giants are always scary taking as big favourites (i.e. vs. Seattle at home a couple weeks ago), but there’s no way they loose at home outright versus a winless Dolphins team.  Another positive – all three teams are playing at home this week.  I’m probably going to sprinkle a bit on some of these teams ATS, but I’ve already locked in my 3-team parlay for some nice odds this week.  Expect the moneyline odds to go down as the public lays their bets into the weekend, so if you like it get on board!

Good luck with your picks and fantasy this week, and enjoy the World Series!  If you’re not watching baseball tonight, you’re not a true sports fan.  Hit me up on twitter @timmywhitehead to live chat during the games.

It’s been awhile since we last spoke, so there’s a lot to update you on. For starters, an active trade deadline has opened up a few different opportunities to take advantage of off the waiver wire. Then, of course, we’ve got some serious injuries that have also opened up interesting situations that offer younger players a chance to prove their worth. Finally, there’s the need for me to explain my absence over the last two weeks, and to fill you in on the Cardinal Rule I broke via a move that locked up the win for me. Let’s get back to work.

To begin with, a few weeks back I decided to take a side job as the head coach of a local high school wrestling team in the Virginia area. It seems increasingly certain that we’ll be without an NBA season this year and I thought it’d be nice to have something to do over the winter. Moreover, practices fall in the same time slot I was using to write blog posts leaving me in a scramble to get situated. Long story short, while I’ll do my best to continue pumping out solid information, a lack of an NBA season coupled with the quickly approaching NFL fantasy trade deadline means realistically we may face a bit of a wind down.

That all being said, it’s not like I’ve been living in a cave these last two weeks either. I’ve stayed on top of all the developments, made some significant moves for my team, and have plenty to keep you busy moving forward. Let’s discuss:

LOTTERY TICKET PLAYERS

(1) Demaryius Thomas – WR – Denver Broncos

The move to send Brandon Lloyd back to re-unite with Josh McDaniels was about more than a disgruntled wide receiver looking for a new offense. The Broncos aren’t stupid, they know what Lloyd is capable of. Last season with Tebow at the helm, Lloyd had 270 yards and 2 touchdowns in 3 games. So why ship him off like that?

Despite the obvious difference in philosophy with new coach John Fox, there’s also the investment the team made with former 2010 first round draft pick Demaryius Thomas. Sitting at a nice 6’3″ and 235lbs, Thomas is a big beastly style of receiver who’s only fault to date has been an inability to stay on the field. Fast forward to tomorrow and you have both the Broncos first day without Lloyd, and their first day with Thomas on the field. This kid is really athletic and has the ability to leap into the top notch receiver conversation. Surely that makes him worth a bench slot.

(2) Keiland Williams – RB – Detroit Lions

One thing is for certain, Jahvid Best has an ugly propensity to sustain concussions and that does not make him suitable to play in the NFL, particularly as a RB. Regardless of whether the rumors are true pertaining to his ability to remain on the field for the rest of the season, or whether he does indeed need to take the season off, we know that there’ll at least be one week where Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams get to showcase their stuff, and make the argument to get the nod going forward.

With Maurice, while he’ll get the start, I find him to be the lower risk, lower reward player. Indeed we’ve been down this road with Morris before, as a starter for the Seattle Seahawks and while he’s shown flashes of brilliance from time to time, he’s just not very consistent.

Alternatively, we have Keiland. A bursting yet bruising back who flashed some solid talent and generated a lot of hype in Washington before being supplanted by a super hot Ryan Torain in the backfield en route to an eventual off-season move to Detroit. Keiland has secured himself the spot of goal line vulture for the Lions through hard work, passing by former standout James Harrison, and is in a nice position to break out this weekend. Playing for a team that is desperate for a consistent and effective runner to take them through the playoffs, Williams has a real chance to shine.

(3) Tashard Choice – RB – Dallas Cowboys

There’s really only been one tandem running back duo in the NFL that’s produced two viable players and that’s the Carolina Panthers. Even there, the duo has relegated each other to little more than bye week filler status with owners praying for an injury to the one or the other. In Dallas, the situation has been even worse with coach Jason Garrett proving he has no issue giving solid playing time to all three of his feature backs.

However last week’s news of a high ankle sprain to 2011 bust Felix Jones left Dallas with just two backs to rely on, meaning increased snaps for both. No doubt that Joe Schmoe’s hypetrain pushed your league to be all over the waiver wire to snag DeMarco Murray, and with good reason. While in college, Murray drew Peterson comparisons with his physical rushing style, ability to pick up the blitz, and can even catch passes out of the backfield.

That all said, there’s plenty of room to make the case for Choice here too. Choice has been more than solid when given the reigns in the past. With a style more closely resembling that of Jones, he’s a back that can get to the outside with enough speed to hit the home run play. Even though Murray will receive the start and get the Lions share of carries, Choice should still shoulder 10-15 reps (more if he gets hot), and given the deference opposing teams must give to the Cowboys passing game, he’ll have plenty of opportunity to produce. In the beginning Choice offers a nice bye week fill-in, but should he outperform Murray or should Murray just get hurt, Choice will provide ample dividends down the road.

BUY LOW

(1) Brandon Lloyd – WR – St. Louis Rams

Yes, I’m a bit late to the party here. In fact, I did buy low on Lloyd in two leagues, once with Tim Hightower straight up and once with Chris Johnson and Jordy Nelson for Lloyd and McFadden, both pre-announcement. Still, there’s a good chance that the owner of Lloyd in your league doesn’t fully comprehend how big this deal was, and may even be dismayed about the news surrounding Bradford’s ankle injury. Here’s the facts:

Last season Lloyd had nearly 1500 yards receiving and 11 touchdowns. More importantly, while the bulk of this production came in tandem with Kyle Orton, he also (as previously mentioned) put up stellar WR1 numbers with Tim Tebow at the helm. Meanwhile, while thus far this season he’s been a bust, the reasoning lay solely at the feet of John Fox who simply didn’t see eye to eye with Lloyd. Indeed after speaking out following their week three loss to Tennessee, in angst about not being targeted enough, Lloyd followed with with a 2010 reminiscent  130 yards receiving.

Yes, he will likely be getting the ball from A.J. Feeley for a week or so. Yes the Rams have plenty of issues that the signing of Lloyd does not magically make disappear. But still, reuniting with Josh McDaniels and looking for passes from one of the top young arms in the league during the all important playoffs make Lloyd a primo trade target.

(2) Ray Rice – RB – Baltimore Ravens

What? Ray is having an outstanding season. So how can I recommend him for a buy low? This recco is less about the player himself and more about the format of the league. What I mean is that Ray has already undergone his bye week, the first of the top backs to do so (though McCoy goes this week and Freddie has seen his too).

Many managers, while reviewing trade offers, tend to overlook the whole bye week piece of analysis. It’s a shame because this is such a big portion of the whole valuation, from the lack of need for a future filler to the difference in total stats leading to different rankings. I’ve already made across the board offers for Rice that look something like McFadden or Peterson or Foster or Jones-Drew coupled with a nice kicker like a Lance Moore to seal the deal. See if you can snake someone in your own league.

(3) Shonn Greene – RB – New York Jets

Right upfront I’m going to tell you, Shonn Greene stinks. He lacks burst, can’t find the hole, and has been one of the worst starting backs in the NFL this season. Moreover, this weekend he finds himself coming off the bench as the Jets have given the ceremonial nod to 97 year old Ladanian Tomlinson versus the Chargers. Indeed, could Greene’s value get any lower?

No, and he still has some value. He’s still going to be a nice fill-in for bye weeks, works well as a backup guy in-case of injury, and is similar to that cigarette butt you find on the ground half smoked as you leave the bar, inviting you to take a few puffs before it’s indeed dead. The cost right now is pennies on the dollar and all it will take is one >100 yard performance for Joe Schmoe to get back onboard and his trade value to soar.

(4) Darrius Heyward-Bey – WR – Oakland Raiders

Very quietly, Heyward-Bey is starting to put together a nice season. And why not? He’s got all the makings of a future star including being a former first rounder, being in the veritable third season of his career, and now receiving passes from known gun-slinger Carson Palmer. Oh, and it doesn’t hurt that the presence of Darren McFadden ensures loads of man coverage.

SELL HIGH

(1) Jordy Nelson – WR – Green Bay Packers

Kudos to Lady Thief for calling the stellar production of Jordy this season. He served me well in two leagues, and served her well in a third. But there’s little doubt Jordy’s value has hit a peak making now the time to sell. You see, despite the nice 403 yards receiving and 4 touchdowns that Jordy has posted thus far, one simply can not ignore that 2 of those catches accounted for nearly half the yards (and 84 yarder and a 93 yarder) and half the touchdowns.

Moving forward it’s just not likely that he’ll continue to put up big yardage gains like this, especially with Rodgers having so many effective weapons at his disposal. Move him onto an unsuspecting manager who hopefully will give you Brandon Lloyd in return.

(2) Matt Forte – RB – Chicago Bears

It’s not often that Joe Schmoe offers up useful information on a player, but it does happen. In Forte’s case, it was the revelation that the Bears have been using Forte in roughly 48% of their total offensive plays. Basically, that means Forte is either carrying or receiving on every other play.

That kind of usage is simply not sustainable. Certainly Forte is bolstered by the fact that he’s not missed significant time in the past, and also that he’s playing for a much deserved contract, but still I wouldn’t want to be holding the bag when the crows come to roost. Add in a healthy Marion Barber who is in the position of vulture back for the Bears and the case for decline comes together.

(3) Wes Welker – WR – New England Patriots

Something significant happened last week during the Pats win against Dallas. Not only did Welker post his lowest yardage total of the season, but the Cowboys laid the blueprint for future teams to keep him at bay. That blueprint involves the defense getting very physical with Welker, particularly at the line of scrimmage, banging him around and knocking him off route. To the keen eye, it was shockingly effective.

In most leagues Welker is currently sitting as a top 5 overall player, a mark which it is highly doubtful he will maintain. A nice 2-2 offer that, timed right, returns Andre Johnson plus another upgrade seems in order.

FINAL THOUGHTS

I’ve been VERY active in trading over the last two weeks. I’ve managed to turn my team into a virtual lock for the crown leaving my opponents in awe. That all said, the last move I made involved (reluctantly) selling Adrian Peterson, something I’ve never condoned and wouldn’t ever condone except for the return on him that I received. In the end the deal was Peterson and Flacco for Brees, MJD, and Lance Moore. It left me with the squad below which, in my very professional opinion, is a joke for a 16 teamer.

Good luck this weekend Thief Nation. Be sure to get those waiver moves done before the games start, and send those offers out right away. Thanks again for bearing with my absence, hopefully you understand the situation, and thanks again to Timmy Dubcity for giving us some interesting stuff to read in the interim.

QB – Drew Brees

RB – McFadden / MJD

WR – Brandon Lloyd / Torrey Smith

TE – Jimmy Graham

And this is in a league where they all KNOW my reputation. The best deals were the aforementioned McFadden and Lloyd for Nelson and Chris Johnson, and a prior deal where I sent away Arian Foster with Deion Branch and received Michael Turner (dealt later) and Jimmy Graham. The final move to get Brees was more of an insurance play to lock it all up. Now I’m left trying to score backups (Michael Bush, Deji Karim) to get my team ready for the playoff push.

Before I get to this week’s post, I’d like to give a big shout out the Thief for letting me write here, but also to all the readers here at FST.com.  It’s all of you that keep this site up and running.  Everyone is busy and has their own lives, including the Thief and myself, and by visiting the site, posting comments and replying to other’s questions, you make this a fun community to be a part of.  So thank-you, keep up the good work!

On to the post – doing research for sports gambling.  Next to managing your bankroll, this is probably the second most important factor in being a successful sports bettor.  How do you think the sportsbooks make so much money?  The public.  And why does the public lose so much?  More often than not, it’s insufficent research.  Public gamblers tend to bet on their home team, or the favourites, rather than doing proper research, examining the trends and analyizing the matchup.

In reality, doing research for sports betting is fairly similar to doing research for fantasy sports.  Remember that youtube clip of Billy Walters I posted last week?  What makes Billy so successful is the insane amount of research he does.  He is typically doing as much if not more research than the sportsbooks themselves, giving him a competitive advantage.  If it’s part of the game, it matters.

Injury Reports – pretty straight forward.  Who’s playing and who’s not?  Betting lines can signicantly move up or down when injuries occur.  If you hear about a significant injury immediately when it happens, you may be able to get some value on the betting line.  With the growth of social networking, mainly twitter, injury reports are available on an up to the minute basis through websites like Rotoworld.com.  Having said that, you have to read into it and take Rotoworld with a grain of salt because sometimes the reports are inaccurate.  NFL.com Injury Report page (http://www.nfl.com/injuries) is the most accurate resource.  On ESPN’s Fantasy site, Stephania Bell, their on-staff certified physical therapist, has an injury blog (http://espn.go.com/fantasy/blog/_/name/bell_stephania) that she regularly updates throughout the week.  I’ve been following her for quite a while, she is well educated and digs deeper to provide further insight verus the typical injury reports.  If you are also interested in the field of human kinetics or sports injuries, she is a great read.

Trends, Weather & Home Field Advantage – yes, the weather.  It matters.  Where is the game being played?  Indoors or outdoors?  If it’s outdoors, is it sunny in Florida or cold & snowy in Wisconsin?  Obviously if the game is indoors, it favours the better, faster offensive teams.  If it is outdoors in a hurriance (like Week 3 Carolina vs. Jacksonville), there aren’t going to be many quality passes and you may want to take the under.  If I learned one thing from doing my Master’s degree, it was the importance of quality, emperical research.  There is so much crap out there on the internet, so when I can find some quality research I really enjoy it.  There has been academic research done in the field of football sports betting on topics such as team trends, home field advantage, home underdogs, over/under tendencies, and cold weather games.  If you’re interested, have a read – http://www.sportsinsights.com/sportsbettingresearch.aspx

Team Offensive & Defensive Statistics – how do teams stack up offensively and defensively against one another?  Which teams are good against the run? The pass?  Which teams suck all together?  Take last week for example.  My top play of the week was Green Bay -14.5 vs. St. Louis.  To most, that seemed like a ton of points to cover for the favourite, but dig a little deeper…Green Bay is the highest scoring team in the league and top 3 in passing.  St. Louis is the lowest scoring team in the league and in the bottom 3 in total yards allowed.  By doing a little research, it seemed like a no brainer to me.  The best and most accurate source for this data is again NFL.com (http://www.nfl.com/stats/team).  You can access pretty much every statistic you need right there.

Betting Lines – researching betting lines on various sportsbooks is a great way to make sure you’re getting proper line and odds on the game.  I’ve mentioned this before but it’s worth repeating – I recommend having multiple accounts at online sportsbooks to make sure you get the best odds and point spreads.  For example, last week the line on the Giants/Bills game was NYG -3.  I liked the Bills, and thought it would be close, so I shopped around and got Buffalo +3.5.  Thankfully I ended up winning, but if I hadn’t shopped around and got the extra half point, it would’ve been a push and cost me some winnings.  Anytime you can grab an extra half point on 3 point or 7 point lines it could be a great value opportunity.   Another imporant point to researching betting lines is how the line moves throughout the week.  As gamblers abroad place their bets, the lines will fluctuate.  The goal for a sports book is to have an equal distribution of money (50% on each side) of every game.  This way, no matter who wins, the house still makes money with no risk involved for them.  This is not always possible, but as the big money players place their bets, they have the power to move lines one way or the other.  When a line opens early in the week, check the odds and watch it throughout the week.  Understand that it takes a lof of action to move lines across the field goal and touchdown barriers, for example from 3 to 3.5, or 7 to 6.5.  Other lines will likely move more frequently.  After you practice for a while, you’ll be able to tell which way the line is going to move during what part of the week, opening up excellent value betting opportunites.  If you haven’t bookmarked this site from before, do so – http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/nfl-football/

In conclusion, beating the sportsbooks is about creating an edge for yourself versus the house and the public through proper research.  The sports handicappers who work for the bookies are pros, the best of the best, and they have all of these tools and research at their disposal.  How can you win if you’re not atleast on a somewhat equal playing field as them?

My Weekly Picks

Unfortunately another 1-2 week last week, but I sracpped and clawed with a few late bets to come out fairly even on the week.  Sometimes sports gambling takes some grit and toughness.  You have to stay focused, commit to your research and try not to get frustrated when things don’t go your way.  You hang around and hang around through the tough weeks trying to stay above .500, and then when we get hot for a week or few at a time that’s when we make some money and build our bankroll.  Again, it’s all about the long haul.

FST Picks Record – 7-5-0

Personal Betting Record – 23-19-2

Pick ‘Em Record – 62-28

Green Bay -8 @ Minnesota

The Green Bay Packers are on another level right now. They’re 6-0, 5 of their 6 wins have been by 10 points or more, and the 6^th was only due to a late garbage time TD by Cam Newton.  I’m gonna say it again, Aaron Rodgers is the best QB in the league with the most talented offensive weapons around him.  Minnesota ranks 24^th in passing defense and is starting a rookie quarterback in his first start ever.  The game is also indoors, which favors the Packers.  Bet against Aaron Rodgers at your own risk.

Baltimore -8 @ Jacksonville

Another team who is just dominating this year, Baltimore’s four wins have all been by double digits, and their defense is back to being one of the best in the league.  This game features the #1 scoring defense in the Ravens vs the 2^nd lowest scoring offense in the Jaguars.  It’s going to be very tough for Gabbert & Co. to put up points.  Jacksonville also gave up 146 yards rushing to Mendenhall last week.  Ray Rice is primed for a monster game, and the Ravens want to show they are for real on the national stage of Monday night.

Atlanta +3.5 @ Detroit

I had a really hard time picking a third game this week because there are a lot of matchups I like: Denver @ Miami, Chicago @ Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh @ Arizona, but I’m gonna roll with the Falcons.  Detroit is having problems with the interoir of their defense, mainly against the run ranking 26^th against the rush so far this year.  After a rough start, Atlanta rediscovered their identity last week – a ball possession, clock eating running team!  Everyone thinks that Atlanta is a pass first team, even the coaching staff wanted to be a pass first team this year, but it’s just not their strength.  Expect heavy doses of Michael Turner to chew up yards, eat the clock and keep the game close.

Good luck with your picks this week.  Follow me on twitter @timmywhitehead.

*Timmy Dubcity is a weekly contributor to FST.com. He’s totally covering my ass as I get things in order. Lady Thief chastised me last night for being delinquent, and I promised her I’d get back on track ASAP. Thanks for bearing with me nation, and thanks for the great posts Dubcity.

Happy Canadian Thanksgiving! Unfortunately this week I’ve been crazy busy and have a business trip to attend to this weekend, so I won’t be able to write a full article on gambling research like I had planned, but I will definitely follow up with that next week.  In the meantime, I’ve got a little video lesson.  It is a 60 Minutes invterview with Billy Walters, one of the most famous and successful sports gamblers in Vegas.  If you haven’t seen it, it’s a great interview with a valuable lesson.  Check it out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02DVW4iuziA&hd=1

One topic I wanted to revisit before I get to this weeks picks in hopes of helping you be succesful with your picks – please do not rely on only my picks and research for your betting.  I am not a professional handicapper.  These posts are meant to educate you on the fundamentals of sports betting,  Although I only post my 3 favourite picks of the week here, I’m typically placing 8-10 various bets per week.  I play point spreads, over/unders, parlays and teasers.  It is extremely difficult to be succesful over the long haul making only 2 or 3 bets per week.  So far I’m up almost 20% overall on the year through four weeks of betting using this strategy (didn’t play in Week 1).  So if you’re typically throwing down $20 each on two games, maybe try throwing down $5 or $10 each on a few more games.  Just make sure you do your research! (More on that next week…)

My Weekly Picks

Green Bay -14.5 vs. St. Louis

I know, I know.  I’m going against what I have said in the past here regarding big spreads.  It’s a lot of points.  BUT, I did say there are certain occasions where we can play, and I think this is one of them.  This game features the highest scoring offense in the league (Green Bay at 34.6 Pts/G) versus the lowest scoring offense (St. Louis at 11.5 Pts/G). In my opinion, Rodgers is the best QB in the league right now, and he has the most talented and deepest receiving corps in the business.  Trying to stop him?  The St. Louis Rams have one of the worst defenses in the league, and are missing their top 3 cornerbacks.  The Packers have the home field advantage as well.  If you don’t feel comfortable laying that many points, then please don’t bet.  These are the numbers and I just can’t ignore them.

Carolina +4 @ Atlanta

Another week, another cover for Carolina.  Listen, if you’ve been living under a rock for 5 weeks, the Panthers offense is for real and Cam Newton is a stud.  He can do it all.  They’re going to Atlanta, indoors, where Cam should be able to put up very nice numbers.  The Atlanta offense has been very unimpressive so far this year.  Julio Jones won’t play this week, and Matt Ryan has looked sub-par at best.  I definitely don’t think Atlanta is this bad, but I definitely think Carolina has a chance to keep this game close or even win outright.

Detroit -4 vs. San Francisco

How bout dem Lions?!?  I can’t believe the premier match up of Week 6 is 5-0 Detroit vs. 4-1 San Francisco.  Impressive stuff by both teams, but let’s be honest, Detroit is the better squad here.  Home field advantage plays a big part here.  West Coast team travelling east can always be tough, and the city of Detroit is electric right now.  The 49ers are also ranked in the bottom third (23^rd) in passing defense, the obvious strength of the Lions.  Megatron is unguardable, like Shaq in his prime.   Go Lions!

Good luck with your picks and fantasy this week.  Follow me on twitter @timmywhitehead.

* Timmy Dubcity is a guest contributor for FST.com, and he’s also a lifesaver as there’d be no posts this week without him. Life has gotten a little hectic this week, but should normalize next week, thanks for bearing with me, and thanks Dubcity!

Before getting to this week’s post, I want to bring up an important point I brought up last week regarding point spreads – staying away from the favourites on big lines if you’re a beginner.  I don’t even like to bet the big lines because you’re basically betting on one team to dominate or play very, very well.  The NFL is an extremely competitive league, and on any given Sunday, I believe any team can literally beat any team, or at least keep it close like we saw on Monday Night Football.  Stranger things have happened.  This past weekend, 5 games had point spreads of -7 or larger for the favourite (NO, CHI, PHI, GB, TB).  Although 4 of 5 won their games (should have been 5 for 5 if not for Philly pissing it away), only 2 of 5 covered the spread, not great odds for us.  Now having said that, sometimes these can still be good bets, but you need to really do your research, which I’ll cover next week.

On to this week’s post…Managing your bankroll.

If you only read one of my articles, read this one!

This is probably the most imporant part of sports betting.  Sometimes we have a bad week, and you have to be prepared to deal with that.  Sports betting should be fun, not stressful.  We are not professional gamblers trying to make a living and pay the rent.  We’re sports fans, who love fantasy and may want to try some gambling and try to make a few bucks.  Here’s a couple tips about managing your bankroll.

1) You only need to win 52.4% of the time to break even!

For some readers, you maybe have heard of this number before.  For those of you who haven’t, basically a winning percentage of 52.4% on your bets is all you need to break even and cover the juice (the rake or fee taken by the house on your bet).  For example, of 21 bets, you would need to win 11 games and lose 10 to break even.  Anything above that is pure profit.  Professional sports bettors rarely have a winning percentage of 57 or 58%, and it’s often in the range of 54-56%.  A long-term winning expectation of 60% or more is too high.

Now some of you will read that and say, “well dubcity, what’s the point in sports betting if you only win 55% or the time?!?  I’m not going to make any money like that!” You have to look at sports betting as a long-term investment.  We’ll get into the mathematics shortly, but esentially it is a compound interest forumla.  If you win 55% of the time, your bankroll grows.  When your bankroll grows, your average dollar amount per bet grows.  The more that dollar amount grows, the more your bankroll grows if you continue to win at a 55% rate.  So on, and so forth.  You see where I’m going with this…

2) Don’t bet more than 5% of your yearly bankroll on any given bet!

For this one, let’s look at a simple mathematical example.  Say your yearly bankroll is $100, so this would make your maximum bet $5.  Now some people like to vary their bets between 1-5%.  I like betting the same amount, 5%, on every bet I make because it takes out the risk involved putting more money on a team you really like.  Remember in my first post where I talked about how the “5 Star A+++ Lock of the Week!!” is just a crock of shit?  This is why – say you really like New England this week at -9.5 so you throw 20% of your bankroll on them.  You also bet 3 other games at only 5% of your bankroll each.  Now, say you win those other 3 bets, but New England only wins by a touchdown and doesn’t cover the spread.  You’re 3-1 on the week, which would normally be very good, but you just lost money!!  Doesn’t make any sense to me.

So lets see how we can still make money winning only 55% of the time.  To account for the sportsbooks’ juice we use the typical example of 1.91:1 odds (to win $10, you bet $11).  Again, for this example your yearly bankroll is $100, and for sake of simpliciy lets say you bet 9 games per week at 5%/bet and win 55% of the time on average throughout the season.  Remember that sometimes you will have good weeks going 6 or 7 for 9, and sometimes you’ll have not so good weeks going 3 or 4 for 9.  The goal is to average that out in the long run to 55% (or better).  Week 1 you go 5 for 9 betting 5%/bet.  Nice work.  So we risked $45 to win $47.75.  Seems dumb right?  Hold on there tiger….

Now our bankroll is up to $102.75.  Next week you have a better week, winning 6 of 9 at 5%/bet, which is now up to $5.14 per.  This week we risked $46.26 to win $58.89.  Our total bankroll is now $115.38.  Week 3 rolls around, and unfortunately we go 4 for 9 at 5%/bet, which is now up to $5.77.  This week we risked $51.93, and won $44.08 back, putting our total bankroll at 107.53.

So far through 3 weeks at a winning percentage of only 55%, we’ve already increased our bankroll by 7.53% in only 3 weeks.  There are very few investments in the public or private markets where you could earn a 7% return in a year, let alone 3 weeks.  If you extrapolate this data over a 17 week NFL season, winning an average of 55% of the time you can turn $100 into $158.60. That’s a 58.6% increase of your investment over only 17 weeks!! If your bankroll was $1000, you would’ve won $586, enough for a trip to Vegas! If you’re interested in the math, hit me up on twitter and I can send you my spreadsheet.

Keep in mind, these are very conservative estimates.  A lot of times you can get lines at better odds that 1.91.  Sometimes you go on a hot streak, winning 60-65% for a couple weeks increasing your bankroll more.  There are endless variables.  The point I’m trying to make here is give yourself a yearly bankroll and stick to the 5% per game rule.  If you do proper research and don’t bet irrationally, you can give yourself an excellent opportunity to create a profitable investment.

My Weekly Picks

Big week for me last week.  I went 3-0-0 in my FST picks, and 6-2-0 on my personal bets.  I also went 2-0 in fantasy this week and won $56 in my weekly pick ‘em pool going 13 for 16.  Doesn’t get much better than that my friends.  My stats on the year:

FST Picks: 5-1-0

Personal Betting Record: 13-9-1

Yearly Pick ‘Em Record: 45-19

Tennessee +3.5 @ Pittsburgh

The Titans are coming on strong even without Kenny Britt.  Their defense is very underrated, ranked as the #1 scoring defense and in the Top 10 against the run and pass.  CJ2K is getting his legs back under him and should have a very nice game against a 22^nd ranked Steelers run defense that just lost James Harrison.  Both Big Ben and Mendy are battling injuries and look like shaky plays this week.  It sounds like Ben will play, but I doubt Mendy will.  Even if they both play, they’ll be in tough shape to put up enough points to cover the spread.  Make sure you shop around on this line and get the +3.5 because it’s still out there with good odds.

Cincinnati +2.5 @ Jacksonville

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but through 4 weeks of the season the Cincinnati Bengals have the #1 ranked defense (Total Yards) in the NFL.  Staggering, especially when they are road underdogs against the lowest scoring team in the league in Jacksonville.  The Bengals need a bit more respect after beating undefeated Buffalo last week and holding them to 20 points.  Now, there’s no way they finish the year as the #1 defense, but against a shitty team like the Jags I’ll take my chances.  Cedric Benson should be playing as it appears his suspension has hit a legal filibuster at the moment.  The Bengals are 3-1-0 ATS this year, and conversely the Jags are 1-3-0.  Need I say more?

Moneyline Parlay: New Orleans @ Carolina & Houston vs. Oakland

Going back to the well this week with my boys from Mardi Gras.  Brees and that offense keep chugging along.  Carolina is good enough to keep it close and maybe cover the +6.5 spread, but not to win outright.  Mark my words, Houston is one of the best teams in the league this year on offense and defense even with Andre Johnson out for a few weeks.  Their defense is ranked 10^th right now, but that includes a high scoring game against New Orleans. I’m putting them in the top 7-8.  Oakland is ranked 29^th against the run and total yards (see Foster, Arian).  Both games might be closer than the spreads indicate, but taking the parlay creates value here for us.

Good luck with your picks and fantasy leagues this week.  If you want to chat betting, football or even some hockey, hit me up on twitter @timmywhitehead

*DISCLAIMER: ALL BEERS BOUGHT FOR THIS POST WILL GO STRAIGHT TO DUBCITY – If he wins you a buck, tip the kid!

Well we’ve finally come to the first bye week of the season, losing Cleveland, Dallas, St. Louis, Miami, Baltimore and Washington. Unless you’re playing in an especially shallow league, chances are you’re sitting in a position where you’ve got to plug a hole and the waiver wire options are limited. I figured, since most of my best lottery ticket players are owned now, why not cover some of the most available players who make good plugs at each position this week. This post will cover only players who are less than 15% owned in leagues. Check it out.

Before we begin, I hope you all are sitting on Issac Redman right now. As the week progresses it looks more and more like Redman will get the nod, Moore will be out, and Mendenhall will be used sparingly. I know Joe Schmoe is telling you about Tennessee’s stout run defense, and that’s well warranted, but he’s got a real chance to break out in this game. Fact of the matter is, at 6’0″ and 230lbs with burst, Redman will be a force for any defense to take down. So cross those fingers, grab that rabbit’s foot, scratch off your shiny lottery ticket and let’s hope we’re all winners.

BYE WEEK FILLERS

Quarterback – Alex Smith – San Francisco 49ers – <5% owned

No one was more down on Alex this year than I. On the trading desk, one of my co-workers is a big fan and native. Throughout the preseason I listened to him moan about being forced to watch a quarterback that time and again has let his team down. Then the numbers started coming in, and they’ve caught my eye.

First off, a QB gains points in three main areas: yards, touchdowns, and interceptions (or lack thereof). Right off the bat I’m going to tell you that Smith will offer low totals in each of these so don’t go thinking I’m gifting you the next best thing. BUT, take a look at Smith’s average game totals: 200 yards, 1 touchdown, miniscule chance for an interception (1 pick in 107 attempts). That’s good for 12 points which is about the best you can ask for from a bye week filler. Moreover, Smith’s completion percentage is sitting at 67% negating the argument that his lack of picks is due to ‘luck’. Instead, it’s a combination of accuracy and sticking to the short pass (which harms his WR’s value, but keeps him grounded). By the way, that completion percentage is good for fourth in the league.

Enter the defense. Tampa Bay has lost a touch when it comes to defending the pass. Most evident by their performance playing against Curtis Painter last week (zero picks). They rank 12th worst against the pass in yards, have two picks on the season (against high attempt QB’s Ryan and Stafford) and, most importantly, give up a lot of yards on the ground (over 100 per) opening up the potential for Gore to gash and the play action to pass.

With Joe Flacco out for the weekend, I’m putting my mouth where my money is, and starting Alex Smith.

Running Back – James Casey – Houston Texans – <15% owned

Two weeks ago James Casey burst onto the fantasy scene with 126 receiving yards and a touch. At the time, my weekly roundup suggesting to avoid him as it was a fluke game bolstered by one catch for 62 yards (unlikely to repeat often). Nonetheless, Joe Schmoe read through some box scores, saw a big number, and recommended the pickup. One week and 8 yards later, owners dumped en mass.

Enter this week and things have dramatically changed. To start, Andre Johnson has gone down with injury and is set to be out for the next few weeks. This will leave QB Matt Schaub in a bind as he searches for someone to hit. Will it be Owen Daniels? Of course, he’s the next best option. Will it be Arian Foster? Absolutely, Foster is great catching out the backfield. Will it be…..wait who’s next?

Kevin Walter? Jacoby Jones? We’ve been down those roads before and while I like Walter this weekend, neither is very reliable. Enter Casey. Earlier in the week, when commenting on Casey, coach Gary Kubiak mentioned his versatility saying he could see the Texans lining up Casey as a fullback, tight end, and even wide receiver! To me, that spells utilization.

Moreover, the Texans face the lowly defense of the Oakland Raiders this weekend, which should offer plenty of opportunities for looks. Finally, at 6’3″ and 248lbs, there’s a good chance that Casey will be the target of any goal line play action passes out of the backfield. Don’t expect anything spectacular here, but a total of 60 yards and the potential for a score makes for a nice bye week filler.

Wide Receiver – Michael Jenkins – Minnesota Vikings – <7% owned

Who’s got the worst pass defense in the league? Well, that’s New England and Green Bay, but neither has a favorable matchup to exploit, nor an available wide-out to use. But one doesn’t have to look far down the list to find the Arizona Cardinals, who rank 9th worst in total yards per game. That equates to giving up 105 on the ground and another 280 through the air. Take a team that gives up over a hundo on the ground and pair them against Adrian Peterson and you can tell where their focus will be.

Enter Donovan McNabb, an aged veteran quarterback whose back is up against the Christian Ponder. His team sits at 0 – 4, his legacy is being dragged through the mud, and his job is on the line. But, he’s also steadily progressed through the last few weeks and had his best (not saying much) game of the season last week, finally tossing 2 touchdown passes. On the season thus far, Donovan has tossed 4 touchdown passes total, and two of those passes have gone to Michael Jenkins.

We’ve talked about this before. At 6’4″ and 214lbs, Jenkins is a big target that’s ideal to look for when defenses stack the box to stop the run. While he’s not more talented than Percy Harvin, he also doesn’t need the amount of time Harvin needs to get open. Instead, he can muscle the ball out of the air from opposing defenders. Most importantly, on the goal line, when defenses are throwing everyone and their butthole brother on the line to stop AP, McNabb has chosen to target Jenkins for the score.

I’m not imagining some huge game here, though I do like Jenkins as a lottery ticket as well, given that up to this point he has clearly been McNabb’s favored target. But instead, I’m liking his chance to score a touchdown which is all you need when it comes to the wide-out position. Stuck in a jam? Start Jenkins.

Tight End –  Jeff King – Arizona Cardinals – <8% owned

I’m going back to the well on this game, but it’s too hard to pass up. But check it out: Minnesota currently sits with the 5th worst passing defense in the league. To that, you’re supposed to respond: so what, Arizona has Beanie Wells to run all over the place. True, but did you know Minnesota also has the 5th best rush defense in the league? This despite playing in four losing games where the opposing team was in a position to pound out the clock.

Me thinks it sets up for a day where Beanie has trouble finding the hole, forcing Danny Cobb (I have to write it that way to get used to pronouncing it properly, as Lady Thief continues to remind me that it’s not kOlb) to the air early and often. Much like the Cardinals will be keying on Adrian Peterson, you can bet the Vikings will key on ole Larry Fitz. Usually doubling a wide receiver (in man coverage) means leaving a tight end open in the flat.

Enter Jeff King. A reliable safety valve that had a touchdown in each of the first two games before being shut out the last two. Look, I know Tight End is deep this year. I know I could’ve (and would’ve) recommended Casey in this role too. But I’m trying to look out for those of you in really deep leagues (two tight ends maybe) that are desperate and in this situation, roll with King and the good chance he scores again.

And there you have it. Some deep league, emergency situation, bye week fillers. Here’s to hoping one of these players finds the end zone for you (and in Smith’s case, me too!). Here’s also to a huge game out of Issac Redman, a player with the potential to produce big, and land us a nice big fat unexpected positional upgrade once he’s done plugging our bye weeks. Good luck this weekend nation, bye weeks are what really separates us vs. them.

*Disclaimer: do keep in mind these suggestions are for those who truly have no viable alternatives…