The Fools Talk

European Union: On Stranger Tides

noreply@blogger.com (kaustubhkirti) — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 03:20:00 +0000

With the climate getting even bleaker and the Greece moving forward to an evident default, it becomes even more important, to assess the situation and see how it is going to change the world. The entire European Union stands on solid tectonic plates, where small ripples have started to appear. Recent outburst of Dexia is a mere upstart of what the entire banking system is going to unleash. The story is not from another world but looks so much similar, of how it began when the subprime mortgages refused to payback any returns back in 2008.

It is evident that the liquidity in Greece is going to dry up in November. An evident default has been predicted. What we are left with is how the exposure would spread into the other Eurozone economies. Even after the second round of bailouts through France and Germany the situations have not showed any form of improvement. Today the lenders are demanding a premium of nearly 22 percent on the Greek bonds of the same nature as those of Germanic origin. There is no way possible to pump in more capital into the system. The outcome of the lack of liquidity is what is very much visible at Dexia.

Dexia is Belgium- French based financial institution. Post a government bailout in 2008 due to the subprime crisis, Dexia came to be owned primarily by the French and the Belgium government. However the contagion in the European Union, over the banking crisis has forced Dexia to ask the government for help. The crisis and the fear over a total default in Greece, has forced people to pull out assets and driven the short term lending of the banks to the ground. The short term lending in Dexia was used to finance long term bonds to match both ends. However the evaporating liquidity has turned the tables.

Bailing out the bank was a good option; however currently there are a string of infected lenders, thus it seems quite evident that the decisions would have to be more unbiased. Dexia owns around 520 billion Euros in assets out of which 200 billion are supposed to turn out bad. The size of the bank is nearly twice the size of Greek economy no less. As the decision was taken to restructure the bank a number of implications could be drawn out of it judging by the mindset of the board. The lenders board has decided to tear up the entire bank and create a troubled section that would default. Its 200 billion of bad debt has been decided to put under an entity which they called a ‘bad bank’. These measures rhetorically speak of the confusion afloat.

The French and the Belgium based units rushed into claim their own working units. It may look like a relief to prevent contagion but the exposure of all entities is so much embedded into each other that at one point the bubble is going to burst. On the larger scale, the eyes are however, fixed on the decision made by the Sarkozy and Merkel duo to solve the ongoing problem. Merkel is no longer a favourite player in German politics. Due to the repetitive bailout sessions the Germans are getting indifferent over the issue that why are they overtaxed to bailout the Greek economy. The bailout may sound quite reasonable; however in reality it is very difficult to make a commoner digest the fact.

On the other hand the French economy not very sound still commands a lot of voice in the European Union. Both of the members have to decide how they are going to take the future of the crisis forward. European Union Financial Stability was a SPV created last year. The EUFS was supposed to derive its liquidity through the financed capital from the member countries. There is a clause that states that it could loan out cash to the tune of 440 billion Euros in case of crisis to AAA credited bonds. Though the Greek bonds may no longer be high on Moody’s opinion however en-cashing this facility may be a way to go. However the system still has several constraints.

Due to the constricted market the Germans are sceptical whether they would ever be able to redeem the bailout because after all they would be the chief financiers. The French on the contrary are quite forceful on the matter to use the money right now. A bailout seems a more favourable outcome that facing austerity measures for them. The English riots are a visual example of how bad the backbone crush of the West over which the Sun supposedly smiled.

The only king maker left in market is none other than the China itself. It has foreign reserves to the tune of trillions of dollars and everyone knows in secret it is buying up bonds. China today fashions the name of the key market player not because it wants it but rather because it needs it. The survival of the West and East is so much entwined into each other that a collapse might send every other economy to the dogs. The entire buyer seller chain depends whether the China would be able sell enough to the West when they get the money that it has used to loan out to them. Thus all eyes are on this player whether it would actually be able to make it or let it fall.

Brazil On Elections

noreply@blogger.com (kaustubhkirti) — Sat, 02 Oct 2010 14:45:00 +0000

Democracy sometimes takes people by surprise how is surpasses its own principles and converts a people led government into a totalitarian anarchy. The power is democracy is seldom heard without the onset and control of corruption, unemployment, nepotism and many similar shortcomings. However the Lula da Lula government in Brazil is a staggering example of a sufficient and a successful democratic government. Eight years hence he is stepping down from his thrown not because the people have chosen so but because there is no clause within the constitution that can help his stay elected any further. With the first week of October gearing up Brazil one of biggest economies, a part of the BRIC goes to polls on 3^rd October.

On the table we have a Lula’s Representative Dilma Rousseff contesting and on the stake is the government of Brazil. Brazil has become one of the most talked about nation in the past decade. Apart from being called as part of the most promising economy of the future it was one of the last to have gone in to recession and one of the first to come out. With the recent finding of the coast of Brazil large amount of oil reserves it seems soon the country can become the power house of the world. However recent claims regarding the faulty Macondo British petroleum disaster all eyes are right now pinned how would this country fair in the future.

Till now the prospects of the country has been beautiful. Lula had run an efficient government when the entire economy was plagued with corruption and mal practices. His entire eight year period composed of tightening of the government control over the life of poor individual. He tried to provide them with a standard living and pull them out of the vicious circle of poverty. Today there are more than twenty million people who have emerged making Brazil more of middle class economy. People today have high self esteem, global recognition, strong financial policies, an apt export driven economy and education facilities. But following the change of power people are speculating on what would be the new.

The current sentiments of the people completely lie with Dilma Rousseff who was selected by Lula himself. She was his Secretary of State. There have been many negative reports doing round regarding her association with some influence peddling scams but most of it has not been proved or dismantled over Lula’s credibility. She on the hand faces an interesting term if she will be elected. Lula had controlled much of the poverty that has attracted a lot of foreign investors into the country. As a result today Dilma faces much different challenges than her guardian. There is an outburst of foreign money in Brazil and scope of multi faceted development.

For the start she has to get off Lula’s cover. People today in Brazil relate to her through Lula. Hence it would be important for her to take to create her own image before taking a stand. Apart from that as said corruption is an important part of a democratic economy. Brazil is no different. Lula has devised a number of measures which strengthened the grip of the government on the corruption but in his absence how much liable the measures would be no one knows. With the current trend of the over dependence of Dilma on Lula things may not go correct.

It is not in my saying that Dilma may be inefficient but circumstantially she has to come out with Lula and speak. Recent trend in the foreign policy of Brazil has been quiet complicated. Brazil does not see an eye to the United States on several issues. The seat at Brazil hold a firm government in the Western Hemisphere but its recent support to the Honduras President who was removed with American intervention does not take Brazil to the America’s good books. Added to this Lula was also accused of having a particular dangerous inclination towards Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the Iranian president. It was only a few months back when a cover over a secret meeting was blown off where in the domestic nuclear capability and support of Iran was discussed between Brazil, turkey and Iran. Following the coup in Ecuador there is going to be lot of heated discussion on how would Brazil react. It may not be in the direct league of Chavez but definitely does not believe in American strategies as well.

Thus we come to conclude by asking whether Dilma would fare the situation or not. The recent findings of the oil have been put to an investment of 67 USD with a company called Petrobars. Post the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico the government has decided to take care of most of the activities by their out. Public share were recently released. However with democracy comes corruption. With huge amount of money on stake how would the government be liable to all this is a question the future will tell? Before the election we can only judge by the sentiments. With so much public money, foreign investment and a proposed oil power house of the world involved we need measures and a public opinion that could take the legacy that has been going in Brazil for the past eight years. It worked before, it might work again.

Sudan in for split up.

noreply@blogger.com (kaustubhkirti) — Fri, 01 Oct 2010 07:28:00 +0000

If more or less the bearings move fine we might end up with a new nation next year as the Sudanese Empire would split up into a northern and a southern part. The news comes into light post a referendum that was released after a peace agreement was reached to end the bloody civil war that ate up the country from 1983 to 2005. Signed in 2005 between Omar al- Bashir the dictatorial ruler of the North Sudan and Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/ Army (SPLM/A) it was decided by the Northern government to give up the control of the Southern part if a majority of the southern origin opt out to .

The history of Sudan has been written more or less in blood with a civil war going on right since it got itself independence from an Egyptian rule in 1956. Two simultaneous civil wars have since then plagued the country and left the public in much of scarce. Added to this the country has also sought much pains in territorial conflicts with neighbouring countries of Kenya and Uganda. International perception of Sudan has deteriorated more or less because of President Omar al- Bashir who has been Sudanese head since 1989 and practiced the worst kind of atrocities over there. He is famously known to have negotiated the referendum of whose outcome would the world is eagerly waiting for.

Omar al-Bashir led a blood fight military coup in 1989 when the government was severed and he rose to power. Following the coup the Sudan has participated in repetitive genocides and rampant atrocities due to which it has been named as a troubled state by the United States. Sudan was declared meanwhile a totalitarian Arabic Islam state irrespective of a Christian minority which are a part of Southern Sudan. Interesting Omar al- Bashir is supposed to be the first state head to have ever been issued a warrant in the International Court of Justice for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Darfur, another troubled region in West Sudan. However his negotiation over the referendum seems a little out of place. As the deadly civil war swept through eating most of what was Southern Sudan al- Bashir negotiated an agreement according to which an election in 2011 January would decide if the Southern Sudan would accede its independence.

The agreement was between the President and SPLM, a separatist rebel group which was given a part after 2005 to run the Southern Sudan under the reign of al- Bashir before till it reaches independence. The referendum was an intelligent step at that time but today with the international media it poses a huge threat to the division of the state. In speech it might be a lot easier to scrap of a piece of land and divide a map into two but in reality there are a number of factors attached to it. Southern Sudan was more or less a provincial Christian dominated region. However constant wars and refugee resettlements over decade has dissolved the old definition of the south. The area has transformed more or less in to a nomadic region of refugees with no proper financial, cultural and situational control. Out of the eight million people who go for voting including the southern settlers in the north five million people are parts of the nomadic tribes. Economically Sudan speaks for itself. Its per capita income lies somewhere close to 1.24 USD per day. In the south some 85% of the people cannot write and it has the world’s largest mortality rates. Most of the population is still dependent on American dropped refugee food packages for survival.

The referendum has seriously opened a number of opportunities for the Southern Sudanese to develop but is simultaneously posing a number of excruciating problems. The division would mean division of debt and all standing assets. Being in the backyard till now, it would be an outstanding moment for the South Sudanese but not for long. The weakness in education is surely going to show signs. However the North part is going to lose more. The Northern Sudan thrived over the oil assets of Sudan and the division would mean a division of all assets. This would cut out the North from a substantial amount of financial assets.

Henceforth the referendum is fiction till a proper voting takes place. Post the independence years it was in 2010 when the first time an elected parliament of Omar al- Bashir formed. Even though it was charged with practicing fraudulent methods during elections, the outcome was accepted. Following continued pressure from US and UNO an election was announced in January with requirement initially 75% but later reduced to 60% for succession into a new state. The North is going to lose more once the division takes place. Sudanese government has already made a heap of enemies all around and ripping of its resources would increase its vulnerability. How the South would cope if ever it is minted into a new state the future would tell. Till that time everyone is wondering whether this is mere eyewash or al-Bashir has finally come to his senses.

Sparking Yen

noreply@blogger.com (kaustubhkirti) — Tue, 21 Sep 2010 16:19:00 +0000

There have much of the sparks flowing between two of the biggest Asian economies recently. Owing to the financial hassle today more or less survival has become the basis to move on and all of the economies are struggling to do that. As most of the economies are keeping their currencies exceptionally undervalued to boost exports and make imports costly the question remain who ultimately will buy ? Since everyone is following the same, and is ready to sell, but no one is in, to buy it is difficult to predict the future.

Added to the situational paradox, there are financial hassles and problems where the economies are fighting with each other to survive. Chinese recently, started buying large chunks of yen from the market to push their values up. China and Japan both run an export driven economy and sustain it through artificial exchange rate manipulation. Recently as China released its grip over its currency by nearly 2% many of the international currencies like Yen have started threatening its market. This has led China to buy up large chunks of Japanese money to push their values up.

As the Japanese currency went up it might have benefited the Chinese, as the Americans now found it better to buy from China than Japan but it started hurting the Yen trade. For the past one month the value of the Japanese currency has been high and large amounts of its trade is being affected by it. Starting from a value close to 100 yen per dollar last year, it went down to a 15 year lowest value at 83. Japanese trade was literally wiped out as it continued to strengthen against the dollar.

As a result the Bank of Japan last week released a buffer package to cushion the deadly cycle that was troubling its trade. An amount to the tune of nearly 20 billion USD worth of Yen was released in the market last week to buy American treasury bonds to depreciate the value of Yen. Americans had till now been very concerned about the Chinese artificial manipulation but this is the first time a similar story related to Japan is coming out.

With such huge rate manipulations going around today, this does not seems to be a really big thing. But the question is would be a long term benefit? Obviously not. Likewise China, Japan will now have to keep buying American treasury bonds on a regular basis to keep the exchange rate fixed. Regarding benefitting this is just going to be a minute long story. Japan has used to artificially boost its exports for a very short period of time whose tunes are going to die very soon. It may affect Chinese sales to a certain limit but not to a larger extent. The main impact would be seen in a short while on how the Japanese government fairs in its own policies. On one side it is facing deflationary circumstances and huge unemployment and on the other hand a competent stage. The economics of the Japanese industries has still not left behind recession made bruises, and the country is diluting the currency to keep itself in a selling posture, but what will you give to your citizens when they are spending more to make something which you are deliberately trying to sell cheaply internationally.

Decision Indecision

noreply@blogger.com (kaustubhkirti) — Tue, 21 Sep 2010 06:22:00 +0000

Much of banking supervision that is exercised today is what was decided by Basel Accord developed in 1988 by the Bank of International Settlements. The accord was announced to control the risky banking services that are heavily prevalent and some way or the other affects all the economies of the world.

The entire cycle of boom and burst is a near fourteen year cycle which if properly analysed could be predicted before occurrence. The cycle completely relies of the numbers of defaulters that grow year after year up to the point when their number actually leads the economies into recession. This theoretic assumption has no buffer to define the mercenary attitude of banks or any such financial activities that have been the prime causes of recession. There is no account given to the messy governmental policies or the new instruments that companies tend to launch each year which one way or the other affect everyone. Interestingly these instruments make the effects of the scenario even more ramified and insoluble.

On going by the book the next big market crash is delayed up till 2014 if all goes well, but this is usually not the case. There are still situational faults attached. Who would have though once so regal Mortgage Based Securities would hamper the world economy so much that giants like AIG would have to settle as a public owned body? The end point of the situation is what comes around goes around. As a result in light of the market crashes since 1988 the bank of international Settlements has been framing rules to contain what little it can the reckless nature of the banks. Baking institutions however have always found a way to get through the situation, thus it goes with the saying that every time the rules are going to be broken and more or less the public end up suffering.

Beginning with the latest Basel Committee meeting that was organised by BIS at Switzerland, there economist from the G20 nations decided over the future of banking regulations. There were some very interesting clauses that were added to the accord. The banks do not hold the practice of holding large chunks of cash with themselves because cash in circulation can only bring returns. Stagnant cash is like money in vain. The amount of money held in liquid form by the bank is defined by the capital adequacy ratio.

Capital adequacy ratio is supposed to be the amount of cash that the banks own at any point of time divided by the entire amount of the risky assets. The definition of the money that banks own is defined by the types of ownership rights the share owners have on the bank. There are some shares that have ownership rights (tier I) i.e. you literally own some part of the bank and some that only pays you dividends (tier 2). When the bank is being foreclosed it is this capital that banks own is used to pay out the public who had invested.

Previously the definition of the capital adequacy definition was somewhat faulty. The definition was tightened by keeping the numerator restricted to only tier I and increasing it to 4.5% by 2015 and another 2.5% later to bring a total of 7%. Previously the calculation the ratio was carried out by considering both tier I and tier 2 assets. So when Basel II had decided to keep the sum of tier I + tier II at 8% due to banking instruments the ratio was a mere 1.6%. The banks had brought up a new instrument called credit default swap where betting on the securities they were selling helped them achieve a capital ratio of 8% by a mere holdings of 1.6%.

Apart from tightening the cash held by the banks provisions for countercyclic buffers have been initiated. The main objective of the countercyclic buffers is to neutralise whatever peaks the wavy nature of economic boom and burst takes. How we are able to control any further financial earthquakes it is difficult to predict. The Basel Committee has definitely tried to fill the void which has been one of the chief reasons for the wipe out of all the assets that banks previously controlled. Previously banks did not keep to themselves any money but put all in circulation. This was a very risky mal practice and the result is very much evident. However how the future banking functionalities turn out, let us wait and see. Human mind has seldom learnt anything from mistakes and it usually finds repenting much better than to try effectuating caution beforehand. Control is decisive when the control is welcome and not when it is forced upon.

Protectionism Eat Out

noreply@blogger.com (kaustubhkirti) — Mon, 20 Sep 2010 11:52:00 +0000

Even though the global meltdown has left us two years ago, steady growth rates in any of the major economies still seem like a bleak opportunity. Countries which previously boasted of their mercantilism and free trade today have shrunk to the levels of protectionism. Previously America used to blame China for the same but today even America is practicing more or less the same. Heavy tariffs and import substitution through indigenous growth is hurting severely many of the emerging economies. The list includes the likes of India, China, and Brazil etc who along with materials also export services. The IT industry in India is down, situation at Bangalore looks gloomy and it would continue if against a democratic stalemate in the US, Obama would trade Indian outsourced jobs.

Protectionism is word that was coined at the time of Adam Smith when communities started imposing additional tariffs on goods that were brought in from other places or imported. The basic objective of the polity was to keep indigenous industries moving and to prevent any form of competitive heat it might feel at the hands of imports. Before the 2008 financial earthquake there were very few names on the table that used such measures to grow. Fingers were always pointed out to China which manipulated the exchange rate mechanism to increase exports and control imports.

China had the problem to feed its ever increasing problem and presence of a competition in its own market would have led to two problems: it would have to fight to feed its own people and the standard of living of the people would increase which is a negative sign when the government is fascist or communist. This was why is resorted to protectionist measures. Coming to today, various economies have taken to protectionism post the global meltdown. The question that is to answer is who is going to be benefitted from all this. Protectionism more or less works like a vicious circle in which government bodies enter in to control the system stability.

Suppose a nation tries to stop any form of imports but keeps on increasing exports to increase income, as is the case of all nations practicing the same, what will be the end like. If everybody wants to sell, and no one wants to buy, ultimately prices will slide. It is universal truth that ultimately the controlling behaviour will lead the customers back to a meltdown. Today most scrutinised and world leaders are leading the way to protectionism. They are definitely going to eat their way into the plates of developing economies.

Nearly 17 out the G 20 nations are imposing heavy tariffs on the countries with which they previously had study trade relations. Much of the services sector in most of the companies is on the rocks. It is not that protectionism is not good or indigenous growth should not be provoked but the gap in the plan is that it constricts free trade. Trade is an option to a business when it is ripe of fit to trade. Cases are coming where the quality of services and goods are going down with the protectionist ideology due to lack of competition.

Analysts like Alan Greenspan and Paul Krugman have been world champions against the practices of protectionism. German Chancellor keeps arguing how the world has submerged into debt. She keeps on telling how the world should and revive through free trade and build up of policies that would benefit both indigenous and foreign entities. However in a way she never acknowledges how Germany has fuelled the latest European financial breakdown. The cheap tax free export oriented German methods have made the entire European Union depended much on whatever it produces.

This has led to what we call a one sided cycle where in countries like Greece and Spain are taking loans from German banks to pay off on good brought from Germany itself and when they spiral into a debt closure they eventually end up paying the loans through debt issued by Germany itself.

Playing politics on the propriety is Obama who is gliding himself through the situation. First the American government through repetitive global pressure has forced volatility in Yuan exchange rates and made Chinese made goods finally a little costly. Added to this he is advocating his own people before the November polls by putting on trade restrictions on many Indian exported services. Lots of BPOs are going to go under the axe ones America decides to do all of it itself. There is little what we can see about the future but artificial impregnations in to the financial build up has always triggered fiscal pandemonium and each time a more striking one.

PETROL INFLAMATORY NOT INFLAMMABLE

noreply@blogger.com (kaustubhkirti) — Sun, 19 Sep 2010 17:54:00 +0000

A current debate is going on regarding deregulation of the prices of petrol, diesel and other fuels. Our petroleum minister argues that this deregulation is best suited or the economy, our prime minister remarks that this policy is in the best interests of the people our country but is it only I or even you are alien to the benefits that our politicians claim to shower on us.

What exactly is deregulation? Deregulation is the euphemism for “I don’t give a shit to what happens to the economic situation of the common man”. It simply takes off subsidies from the spectrum of fuels. Many experts argue that deregulation is a strong statement towards building of a stronger economy and setting fuel prices free, that is they should depend openly on the crude oil price in the world.

Do you think this policy would ever work for us? The petroleum prices in India are heavily subsidized. The money spent by the government to control the prices is huge and without that support the entire working class would suffer like hell. The prices would rise exponentially and the automobile industry would spiral down as the petrol would become dearer. And in times when we are not even sure whether the recession has receded and we are out making policies that are trying to curb public spending. Are we ready to risk market destabilization at the cost of a better tomorrow when the tomorrow is still too bleak to appear?

I ask how the government dare even think to deregulate the petrol prices when it cannot assure stability and provide the people what seems to be their due. Every day our politician promise and proclaim that the food inflation would cool off soon, but could anybody explain me the mathematics which could justify these blatant lies. If you increase the price of petrol you directly increase the transportation cost, and when transportation costs increases the food prices go up as transportation is the only means to provide food to the consumer.

I think that now even a simple calculation could show that in the near future food inflation has a good possibility to go further up rather than going down. You see how all policies and benefits are entwined to make the system complex and people dependent on the government and then leaving them starving for more when they most require help. Policies help people but they should be controlled and withdrawn at time when the situation is ripe and not when the public is itself crying on the roadside for support.

NOKIA - A Finnish Default

noreply@blogger.com (kaustubhkirti) — Sun, 19 Sep 2010 08:41:00 +0000

There is always an advantage attached to whoever enters the market first. Even if the beginning is great the rules do not end there, because the game does not end there. The main rule of the game always falls back upon who defends and play it well. Cases where in the market is mature and innovation is the basic perquisite but it becomes even more difficult to consolidate position when you know you can be outwitted any time. Mobile phone manufacturing today has become one of the most horrendous markets today. There is cutthroat competition with smaller brands entering day to day challenging propriety. Each brand has a charisma of its own. There is some new added addendums and stereotypical features and benefit in every set at much cheaper rates. Forget about brand differentiation, the mobility of the mobile industry has become more of a process and application based warfare. You got something new? The one who offers more gets more. In short what is important to the mobile market today is to innovate and stay up to dated with technology.

If it is only twitter it would not work. People want to tweet and facebooking side by side but they would love if you could YouTube along with. If we go by the tales Nokia is assumed to be the world power in the mobile manufacturing business. It was one of the companies that controlled the world by taking on the wireless network. What fun. The mere beauty of the mobile handsets is its sleek body that has been so dynamic since 1990s since it was first launched. The mobiles were first introduced by NOKIA which turned out to be one for the biggest global companies in 1990. With revenues increasing multifold in multiples of five in the first decade itself NOKIA was a promise to the future. With its 1100 it revolutionised of how people talk and look at communication. There were no lines no connection but people at opposite side of the world could actually talk. NOKIA did it all. In 2005 when it sold its 1 millionth customer a 1100 handset it proved itself to enjoy a Sun that would never set.

However time has reaped some added difficulties in NOKIA. This Finland based company is still number one in sales and manufacturing but the problem inherently lies in its inability to contain competition. By far entering a market is a lesson best learned from NOKIA but considering its current situation problems that have arose recently NOKIA seems to be in some trouble. It announced on its September 10^th report its appointment of first non Finnish CEO that tells a lot about how desperately the company wants to get back on track.

NOKIA still has the tune of nearly one third global sales but today Korea based Samsung, Research In Motion made Blackberry and many other big and small brands in their area of operation are building huge performance concerns to NOKIA. Problem with NOKIA owe to the fact that, it has resumed nearing nil innovation in its initial decade of operation. This has incentivised many other manufacturers to enter. Consider the Apple’s iphone itself brought down the sales of NOKIA by nearly 49% in Western markets. NOKIA never tried to look after what was happening with headsets. From mere telephonic devices these phones were developing into computing and social networking devices. They were not merely devices that were used to communicate; they started becoming part of the human lives and this innovation NOKIA lacked. Its criteria to provide a telephonic base limited its growth and paved the way for intelligent competitor to question such a big giant.

How the situation intensified was even more interesting. With NOKIA fully aware of how computing and technology was merging through online operation on cell phones through camera, video, twitter facebook and YouTube NOKIA never tried to question its own beliefs. The problems of this disaster were evident with Sweden based Ericsson making big moves earlier in the sector but NOKIA too confident made no move to correct it. They were too sure of their own capability as a handset provider.

Furthermore another major drawback associated with NOKIA is cited to be its positioning. For banking if we go to Wall Street or Switzerland and for manufacturing France or Landon but we would never go to Finland for cell phones. Finland was definitely an odd choice for a cell phone manufacturer who wanted to make a global impact. When the market demands technology you need to make yourself in accordance with them push yourself to locations that might suit your users. It was in propriety of NOKIA to settle offshore as late as 2000. No innovation and wrong placement in its second decade eventually curtailed its growth. Even though it has brought in new features recently but its initial mistakes has let others enter the market which otherwise would not have been possible.

Sickest Man of the Euro

noreply@blogger.com (kaustubhkirti) — Wed, 07 Apr 2010 12:57:00 +0000

The financial meltdown might have tumbled many of the largest Wall Streeters but has left a big mark on those who had no otherwise bailing out scheme.

There have been many positions that were left highly vulnerable to the slowdown and even after the collapse of the system the recovery is crippled. Even as we aggrandize the position of the Western colonial powers since the advent of the twentieth century and how they drove the making of the world map the real West can never be forgotten even if they stand in ashes. Past the world wars this great recession has nailed in the final jolt in the coffin of the likes of Portugal, Spain, Greece and Italy. PIGS as they are called are running high deficits and running a crunchy economic system which is bound to spread over the entire Euro area.

On an apt scale if the entire European Market is analysed it can be conferred that neither of the old financial monarch is stable enough to control market sentiments and countries like Italy are running huge deficit which control more than ten percent of the European market. Added to the fact is the sick man of Europe himself the illustrious United Kingdom that stands over a staggering 167 billion USD of deficit with no clear picture from the government side how is it going to undo it.

It is like a rain in the sunny shadows that country of the like Britain might turn up the de-accelerating machine of the European Union. With Germany adamant and still confused to handle the debt of Greece and the topic is in discussion since December what would be the case if Italy defaults or maybe United Kingdom. The financial meltdown has certainly brought in the descent of the West and the resurgence of the East but overlooked what has all went down in the process.

It has been nearly three years when the bubble has started appearing in the housing market that lead to the huge spat on the market but all this time since lots has changed around. The recession that came in Britain was by far less severe than what happened in Germany or Japan but its after effects and the its foothold there has definitely been steady. How do we account for a recovery if a 6.2 percent of negative growth still sustains in this region.

The main flaw in the British system is cited in its prolonged earmarked methods of moral descent. Its vulnerability is explained by its huge spending measures undertaken by the last Gordon regime which nobody has been able to curb or show any control on. Gordon Brown assumed the British economy worked more or less like a compressed rubber. It was bound to regain back its original stature once it lost its flow. This however was not the case.

Even since the European Stirling was brought out of the European Research Mechanism ( ERM ) in 1992 that curbed its control of Germanic money flow and made it an independent entity it suffered a downturn but has been growing ever since. The growth of the British currency has been such that the government has been taking debt on the counter. The only reason that can be figured out is that the high profligacy and over optimism of the Gordon regime has pulled the British economy deeper into the debt. The height of misleading financial growth and selling of bonds to control debt has led to a staggering deficit which the government is finding very difficult to contain.

The budget deficit amount is the highest in the G 20 nations and as elucidated that the recession was not severe in United Kingdom. The Sterling has fallen to one fourth of its value since it all began and has not regained its original strength. The economy has contracted by around 6 percent by the end of 2009 in six fiscal quarters so the path is more or less bleak for economic cauldron.

This British exuberance has led to an over indebted private sector, over extended investment banks and overweighed public sector. All three of them created more or less due to this over optimistic attitude of the government. They have extended the nation debt and brought in all the public sector companies under the scanner, the high investment activities curbed the fiscal flow after the recession leading to their bailout and the slumping consumption is affecting private growth. In short the British are spending more than what they are gaining and the gap is widening exponentially.

At the moment the gap is like for every four pieces spent three pieces are earned. The equation is nothing close to equality. The polls are getting closure and the economic position of England is showing no growth. As I said the Stirling has been continuing loosing value but it is not able to cash upon this loss. Due to the market slump and curbed spending people are not in a mood to eat.

Therefore even after being such a resourceful manufacturer, the world’s sixth largest manufacturer it is not able to spend able to earn a dime over its deficit. People are not ready to buy anything and hence the slump is continued. The inherent condition of the British economy is that its manufacturing is working recklessly taking money from the market but when it comes to sale the people are not ready to consume because of the meltdown. The recovery of Britain as explained has been the worst. The employment still hangs by a thread and there still not enough money in the system to drive a fruitful change. Even with the government subsidies and policies substantial change has not been able to bring into the system.

The housing subsidies and the stimulus might have reduced the deficit from 178 billion pound to 167 billion pound but still the number is monstrous. As a closing note it would be wrathful adding that Britain goes to polls on May 6 and this would be the first time Liberal Democrats are going to have a say in making of the system. The Gordon Brown has not been able to contain any of the problems put to them and on the contrary the problems have surpassed historic levels.

The situation has gone from bad to worse so the future has no clear mandate. The slogan is real change through hope optimism and tangibility but is not this same attitude that brought down the British economy??

The Financial Jihad

noreply@blogger.com (kaustubhkirti) — Tue, 23 Mar 2010 17:55:00 +0000

What with all this bedlam over global slowdown, financial crunch, recession and inflationary trends. Do we have any financial system in place to circumvent such cataclysms? The Islamic banking or the interest free banking can be a serious alternative….

The Islamic Banking is a system of banking which is consistent with the principles of sharia, this branch of economics sprang up in the Islamic Golden Age from 8^th-12^th A.D. It was an early form of mercantilism. Some of the most innovative concepts of present day financial setup like bills of exchange, partnerships, trusts, startup companies, loaning and ledgers owe it’s origin to this period. Islamic banking made a comeback in Egypt in 1963.

The inimitable feature of Islamic Banking is the zero interest policy. The payment or acceptance of interest fees for the lending and accepting of money respectively (called Riba), is treated as noxious (haram) or against the principles of Sharia. Islamic Banking believes in sharing of profit and loss between the borrower and the investor. So how do they sustain and make profit………

Suppose I want to loan a vehicle then the bank would buy it for me from the seller and instead of charging me interest on that loan would resell it to me at a higher price, the payment of which I have to pay in installments. To bulwark itself against defaults the bank asks for strict collateral. This avoids irresponsible behavior on the part of banks and significantly reduces bad loans thus help in avoiding 2008 like recessions. Sounds simple….right….

What about housing? The Islamic banking forms an entity in partnership with the borrower who would both provide capital for financing the purpose. The partnership entity then rents out the property to the borrower and charges rent. The bank and the borrower will then share the proceeds from this rent based on the current equity share of the partnership. At the same time, the borrower in the partnership entity also buys the bank's share of the property at agreed installments until the full equity is transferred to the borrower and the partnership is ended. If default occurs, both the bank and the borrower receive a proportion of the proceeds from the sale of the property based on each party's current equity.

So where does Islamic banking score? When an Islamic bank provides an entrepreneur with venture capital it forms an entity in partnership with him and the capital is provided to the entity at a floating rate of interest. The floating rate of interest is pegged at a companies individual rate of return. The bank’s profit on the loan is equal to a certain percentage of the companies profit, so profit and risk are shared. Such participatory arrangements reflect the Islamic view that the borrower must not bear all the risk/cost of a failure, resulting in a balanced distribution of income and not allowing lender to monopolize the economy.

Besides it solves the problem of hyper-inflation as no interest is paid. Let us understand how. In commercial banking procedure the deposit rate is always 5-6% lower than the lending rate which increases the cost of production and thus inflation, moreover these rates do not remain static and deposit rate tries to catch up with inflation which again results in an increase in the lending rate. Therefore in an interest based economy there is secular rise of prices which can be circumvented in the case of Islamic Banking. The Islamic banks have a 100% reserve ratio which avoids bank runs and thus reduces the risk of defaults.

Now let us do some number crunching. Islamic banking though in its embryonic stage is growing at a rate of 10-15% per year and sales of Islamic bonds may rise by 24 percent to $25 billion in 2010. It is estimated that over US$822 billion worldwide sharia-compliant assets are managed and according to Standards & Poor's Ratings Services, the potential market is $4 trillion. A sharia compliant bank in India would have meant investments worth $300 billion from the Middle East and the huge potential of tapping the 150 million strong Indian Muslim population. In the wake of such exorbitant figures, why has the Kerela High Court decreed to stymie our tryst with sharia compliant Islamic bank……

But the High Court of Kerela thinks that having a community specific bank would tarnish India’s secularist credentials and would lead to similar demands by other communities. Besides Islamic banking violates the RBI guidelines set for the banks. Another issue is that Islamic banking does not support some economic activities as cigarette and liquor production, insurance firms, etc also they have limited number of financial instruments.

In spite of these shortcomings policies should be reviewed to incorporate Islamic banking because of the huge opportunities it opens and the alternative it provides to the ‘Casino-Banking’ system of the west.

THE HOOKAH BONHOMIE

noreply@blogger.com (kaustubhkirti) — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 21:33:00 +0000

Trends keep on changing, whether they may be in clothes, accessories or be it hair styles. New and bizarre ones keep on pouring in everyday and night. The ‘tashan’ factor as we call it, which is the source factor on account of all these changes does not hold exception to it. Bikes, cellphones and a little bit of the smoke and booze add up to the factor. Amongst all these hyped prized possessions, there is another one which can’t be set aside when it comes to flaunting your sophisticated life nowadays.

It is a much more refined way of showing of glitterati in the life of individuals which has taken toll in the recent past few years. ‘The Hookah’ also known as ‘shisha’, an age old traditional possession for smoking tobacco, of our forefathers, which started in India and gained popularity in the middle east, travelled to the states and Europe and became a huge hit. The hookahs were fuelled with burnt cow dung cakes or charcoal, which was placed on top of a container having tobacco. The smoke came through the heating of the tobacco which was cooled and filtered by using water at the bottom.

The new age hookahs as used today in the urban scenario do not use tobacco for its filling but there is only the charcoal and the water which turns to being a flavoured one now. Lots of people think that it might be an answer to their tobacco habit, razing the myth, its very well known that ‘the hookah’ produces much more carbon monoxide as is produced by the cigarettes when consumed in equal proportions.

Moreover the hookah parlours provide a secluded place instead for activities like smoking or drinking, sometimes. Placing all things apart loads of hookah parlours are coming up in the city as the novelty of the rich and fun place for the moderates. These hookah parlours at a few places also provide gathering and celebration joints for students.

Being on the safe side, its also a kind of unidentified mean of preserving of our culture , even it be for smoke. This hookah may be fun and adventurous as it seems but trust me it is injurious to health. Whatever may be the reason ,either it be harmful or, well it can’t be useful for us , its one of the ways to represent the youth culture that our country has been preparing to get into for so many years in an authentic and indigenous style.

It’s a manner to show, as far as there own opinions are considered, that how much we’ve evolved culturally in the past 50 years still keeping it completely ‘desi’.

Market Seizure.. Updated!!!

noreply@blogger.com (kaustubhkirti) — Sat, 20 Mar 2010 07:45:00 +0000

US versus China

When last we looked the United States was putting in unwanted pressure on the Chinese architecture and economy wise tightening their claws to curtail whatever money China was earning.

The reality of the truth well on the other side is that China holds such a huge population and pegging itself t the dollar at a constant value since 2008 it has not got many options to enjoy when price modulation is concerned. More or less whatever margin China gets on the goods that is sold is nothing but a meagre 2 percent. This means that in the United States if the bill is passed and the strong regulations are being applies on the Chinese economy then the exporters would be driven to the ground and the cushioning effect that the China had been downplaying since years would be devastated.

United States has a previous experience of such regulation when it has destroyed foreign economies to give boost to internal production. Something of this sort happened in 1990s around when goods that were imported from Japan were made very costly so that the simultaneous American goods can also become competitive.

As can be seen both the House Democrats and the Republicans are fixed on their point to pass the bill as according to them the curtailment of Chinese hands is an important agenda but time will tell what is bound to happen.

With the American economy completely broke and still waging war in Asia and the Middle East it becomes complicated to trust motives when things do tend to seem otherwise too and China vetoing whatever it can with the 54 African votes in the United Nation against any American imposed restrictions in Iran situation is pretty dim.

The situation however becomes even more gruesome with the sudden ascent of Chermany and not in the most positive way. Speaking of intentions some intentions have still not become clear as what the countries exactly want from the on going crisis that is pulling everyone into it.

This is the third time in a row when the fiscal tightening has forced the masses of the Greece on the streets while on the other side more sophisticated European nations are discussing how to do away with the need to sponsor a bailout for the bankrupt nations.

Germanic Intentions

Mr Schäuble, German finance minister addressed his critics by declaring Greece’s crisis had shown it was “obvious” that the 16-nation eurozone’s rules were “incomplete” and unable to deal with situations long thought “inconceivable”.

His argument comes after days of vigorous debate within Germany, and with other European Union partners, with some questioning the timing of the initiative and others the need for an alternative to the International Monetary Fund.

The Bundesbank, Germany’s national central bank, this week signalled its opposition to any proposal that might distract eurozone governments from the more immediate task of bringing Greece’s public finances under control.

Axel Weber, Bundesbank president, described as “not helpful” discussions about the “institutionalisation of emergency help”, which he said could prove “counterproductive” given that eurozone countries were currently helping Greece.

Greece even though being a paramount question need proper thought is saving it worth the cost for Germany.

If we go by the words of Mr Schäuble there can only be one thing that might come out clear and that would be that Germany is looking at options for a safe exit from Euro zone as far as the currency binding is considered while planning a bailout too.

The Boasters

Chermany as has the name been coined denoted the two of the world’s biggest exporters governing whatever the world eats. China and Germany are, of course, very different from each other. Yet, for all their differences, these countries share some characteristics: they are the largest exporters of manufactures, with China now ahead of Germany, they have massive surpluses of saving over investment; and they have huge trade surpluses.

Both also believe that their customers should keep buying, but stop irresponsible borrowing. Since their surpluses entail others’ deficits, this position is incoherent. Surplus countries have to finance those in deficit. If the stock of debt becomes too big, the debtors will default. If so, the vaunted “savings” of surplus countries will prove to have been illusory: vendor finance becomes, after the fact, open export subsidies.

China is already clawing the possibility of financing every spending of USA but considering the consumption of European Union is considered if Germany were to sponsor Greece bailout or for that matter any other bailout it would choose to leave the Union while doing that or force the weak nations to do so.

The situation is like Germany no longer wants to be associated with its weaker counterparts but seriously wants to help them. It is still playing with its cards till the time when the exact structure of European Union future would be decided for that would decide how the pegging of currencies would occur.

The time is like when financing counterparts is more like making them eat more and in doing so fuelling the market of the country itself. A kind of symbiotic foothold so that the eating and consuming cycle goes on, however this complicated cycle of Euro common currency is restraining countries as they are economically pegged to each other.

More to come.........

The Cuban Missile Crisis of the 21st century

noreply@blogger.com (The Fools Talk) — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 18:09:00 +0000

While history will remember the 20th century for the nuclear arms race, the 21st century might be remembered for the missile defence arms race. About 20 countries now possess missile defence systems, but more than 40 states are expected to have them by midcentury. In fact, by 2050 an entire coordinated system will appear of ground-based, sea-based, air-based and possibly even space-based missile defence elements.

At the same time, the United States and its NATO partners are trying to downplay the negative consequences that missile defence will have on international security, saying it is purely defensive in nature. The standard explanation is that the missile shield will consist of 40 ground-based interceptors positioned on the territory of the continental United States and several dozen more interceptor missiles deployed on the territory of NATO member states and on war-ready battleships.

The spread of U.S. and NATO missile defence systems to many regions of the planet will inevitably lead to an increase in missile defence development-related expenditures. In fact, the current rate of spending will soon outstrip total U.S. outlays for missile defence for the past 25 years combined. Washington spent $132 billion on missile defence over the past quarter century, but now the Pentagon plans to invest $50 billion on such programs over the next three years alone. In addition, the U.S. missile defence program will receive $7.4 billion in budgetary funds in 2010, and the White House is planning to ask Congress for $9.9 billion in 2011.

Interceptor missiles have steadily become more effective as both their accuracy and range have increased. This enables the United States to convert the existing tactical missile defence system in Europe into a strategic system capable of striking and taking out intercontinental ballistic missiles during all three phases of their flight — boost, midcourse and re-entry.

Washington’s development of a new program to “reconfigure missile defence” will be linked to the strategic and tactical nuclear capabilities of the United States, Britain, France and a range of other NATO member states, as well as to space-based weapons that the countries of the West might deploy in the future.

The result is that the “new missile defence architecture” announced by U.S. President Barack Obama last year might turn out to be a dangerous undertaking that could lead to a breakdown of strategic stability in the world. The United States has yet to convince Moscow that this undertaking will not undermine Russia’s national security. Moscow officials are now wondering if the West isn’t leading the world toward another Cuban missile crisis.

One of the paradoxes of the 21st century is that while there is near parity between U.S. and Russian offensive strategic nuclear weapons, there is a significant imbalance between not only the number of interceptors in the two country’s missile defence arsenal but the geographic configuration since Russia has no missile defence elements deployed outside its national borders.

While the number of strategic nuclear weapon are decreasing — and rightfully so — the missile defence elements deployments are increasing along with their effectiveness, and this is a dangerous trend. Understanding that this trend destabilizes global security, many nations are proposing a pact that would limit the deployment of a nation’s missile defence system to its home territory only.

If this agreement cannot be achieved, we will be faced with both a missile defence arms race and another offensive arms race as well.

Market Seizure

noreply@blogger.com (kaustubhkirti) — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 07:21:00 +0000

With the fact clear that Google is coming out of the Chinese market sooner than the financial birdwatchers have forecasted there lays a dense fog on Sino American relationship on what is to happen next. With 400 million Chinese markets still under the assumption that Google is being pushed out of the country because of its vulgar and explicit sexual content the far outcry of heavy censorship is going to affect both Google and Chinese economy as a whole.

With America not in favour of any of what China is pertaining to do and its policies tightening around the dragon’s neck what is next in line is the new bipartisan bill to curb Chinese made imports in the US. China long since mid 2008 kept a constant Yuan to dollar value pegged at a number 6.83 which is causing a lot of problems. With the great slump in the American market and no remuneration for internal American producer from the government due to lack of fund the internal produced goods are not at all competitive in the market.

Chinese goods are highly competitive in the market owing to their cheapness. This cheapness comes from the undervalued Yuan which China has no interest of changing. China hold seventy percent of its foreign reserves in the American treasury Bills hence forth is able to command a constant currency ratio.

Being a communist regime what it does it forcibly brings down the standard of living of the people and dictates their low standard of living there by converting the solid gains and selling the products into foreign exchange reserves. Hence forth it has been able to generate reserves to the tune of ten times what it had in 2003 in the last seven years.

On the other side of the world where that American economy is trying to fight the biggest slump it is being pestered by the Chinese policies which include this constant pegging to the dollar. Internal production is vandalised because of the non competitive China driven market. Only if the China re values its currency and rises it against the dollar then only the internal market would become competitive.

Recently two bills have been brought up in American Congress for the same and most probably would pass. Both of them are pointed to pressurize China to rethink over its decision to increase the value of Yuan against the dollar. First of all there was the Job Bill that is focused at proving new entities with subsidies for opening new business and simultaneously there is this Bipartisan Bill wherein the Republicans and Democrats both are saying to increases taxes on imports from whatever is brought from China.

The consequence of the bipartisan bill is going to be single fold. First of all due to sudden rise in the prices of Chinese goods in the American market the American made internal goods might become competitive in the market and this would give boost internal producers. This bill is going to pressurise the Chinese government to rethink its proposal to continue with its constant pegging on the Dollar or draw a midway with the American counterparts. What is clear that America would not risk the possibility of job creation through this hence it is in favour of increasing the prices of Chinese goods?

But the other part of the story remains that with interest level at near zero and no plan of the American government to alter it is it the right time to bring a costly expensive market to the American consumer. American consumer knows what consumption is but with the slump and whatever small amount of jobs being created would it be viable to introduce this inflationary change.

The situation on the other side of the Atlantic is equivalently gruesome. With Chinese export driven funda there is another country that still stands on the green fields but is feeling the heat of being green. Germany is another mass exporter for whom a constant cheap foreign export is likelihood and the only means of sustenance.

People talk about the rise of the G2 or Chimerica, people talk about the rise of Chindia but now the people are talking about the Chermany, a composite of the world’s biggest net exporters: China, with a forecast current account surplus of $291bn this year and Germany, with a forecast surplus of $187bn.

A just question how America can curtail the hands that feed it. Whatever new bills it applies in the end the situation would revert back to it as controlling the consumption is not a means neither is bring a catapult change in its internal market production. Why is America not thinking that it has no internal market left and if it has to compete with China it will have to do it right from the scratch?

More to come.......

Turkish rift..

noreply@blogger.com (kaustubhkirti) — Thu, 18 Mar 2010 05:44:00 +0000

The Turkish Empire standing on the offset of the Anatolian peninsula adjoining both Europe and Asia has enjoyed an exemplified location since ever. Standing between the resource rich Mediterranean and the Black Sea it has enjoyed a strategic location by being a NATO partner in the Middle East. Turkey has been an important hand of the US that has been deployed in the region. Its reach in the Iraqi war and the possible check of growing Russian hands in the adjoining nations of Georgia and Azerbaijan have been instrumental.

However tiffs started last year when anti Muslim sentiments were accepted as a mandatory part of the NATO regime. Due to the rising unrest of the Islamic insurgents right from China across India Afghanistan to the West the word Muslim has got entangled with being a militant. What more was to happen - minarets were simultaneously banned in Switzerland as possible militant hideouts and turban which is considered as important Muslim attire was banned to be worn in France. To the extent where human right violation was consistent all these acts of the Western world was unacceptable.

First of all pointing out fingers to the entire community is wrong when only some of them are wrong and doing so would lead to further alienation of the people on moral grounds. Then next question to be put up was -why would a country like Turkey which has a near hundred percent Islamic population stand next to NATO allies wherein the liberties of Muslims are being curtailed?

Well if this is not enough the entire picture of ethnic clashes and liberty curtailment is by and large much bigger. On one hand with Islamic dominion in the Turkish estate the Armenian fraternity is being pushed aside by the Turks. Armenia has been an obvious Turkish enemy since 1915 over a number of issues and this fight has turned ripe with sudden US support to the Armenian cause.

Armenia is a small country landlocked and even being a Russian ally it is surrounded by two anti Russian countries of Azerbaijan and Turkey. Turkey and Armenia never had a relationship of goodwill and trust. It began with during the end or closing of the First World War when ethnic cleansing was in progress and the entire Ottoman Empire was breaking up into nation states. A large chunk of Christian ethnic Armenian population that lived in countries like Bulgaria, Romania, Anatolia, Greece, Georgia, Azerbaijan were forcibly moved from their territories to foreign lands. Many of them were driven towards the southern Syrian deserts and left to die. Many of them slaughtered and butchered on large tracts of wastelands before they could make their way past Anatolia into Armenia.

All this came to be known as the Armenian Genocide of which Turkey still take no acceptance of carrying out.

It is widely acknowledged to have been one of the first modern genocides, as scholars point to the systematic, organized manner in which the killings were carried out to eliminate the Armenians. Indeed, the word genocide was coined in order to describe these events. It is the second most-studied case of genocide after the Holocaust.

The starting date of the genocide is conventionally held to be April 24, 1915, the day that Ottoman authorities arrested some 250 Armenian intellectuals and community leaders in Constantinople. Thereafter, the Ottoman military uprooted Armenians from their homes and forced them to march for hundreds of miles, depriving them of food and water, to the desert of what is now Syria. Massacres were indiscriminate of age or gender, with rape and other sexual abuse commonplace. Turkey however openly denies any such incident and openly says that nothing of that sort happened.

The latest Turkish-American rift over the Armenian question—after a congressional committee voted on March 4th to recognise the killings of 1915 as genocide—looks wider than some previous ones. It coincides with a general scratchiness between America and its ally. Turkey is reluctant to slap sanctions on Iran. Anti-Americanism is running high among Turks. Some suspect that Barack Obama retains his view (expressed as a senator in 2008) that “the Armenian genocide is not an allegation…but rather a widely documented fact.”

Still, the chances are that after a deep sulk, Turkey will send its ambassador back to Washington, and the administration will persuade legislators to avoid a vote in the full House, for fear of wrecking an important relationship—and worsening the fading prospects for reconciliation between Turkey and Armenia. A tired diplomatic ritual will play out once again.

Can any actor in this sorry drama do anything to improve the script? One day a Turkish leader will be statesman enough to see that national dignity is better served by acknowledging the sins committed on Anatolian soil than by suppressing debate and punishing truth-tellers. Such a leader could decouple relations with Armenia from Ottoman history. In any case the country that has lost faith of nearly all its allies is America itself.

America- Broke and mass murderer but not going strong anymore. Turkey is an important foothold because of its strategic position on the head of the globe and loosing it would cost the entire Caucuses.

Australia - Land of Racism??

noreply@blogger.com (The Fools Talk) — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 05:26:00 +0000

The Australian image has been blemished by numerous stains of racism in the recent past. The reputation earned by Australia of a popular and responsible tourist destination and an education hot spot has taken a blow due to such repeated abominable incidents or more appropriately accidents.

The racist behavior of few Australian cricketers on the field towards some Indian players had once dominated the critic circle of the commentary world, and had tarnished the reputation of the then No. 1 cricket team in the world.

Though such cricketing incidents have taken a back seat in the present but these racist attacks on the Indians could prove to be the vicissitudes of fate for the global image of the land of kangaroos.

The foreign minister of Australia Mr. Stephen Smith had a mammoth of a task up his sleeves when he was on a long tour to the India and was engaged in the alleviation of the public angst over the racist attack on the Indian students studying in Australia. He has assured to bring the guilty to book. He has pledged whole hearted support to the family of the victims and has repeatedly emphasized the Australian policy of zero tolerance on racism.

If such racial maniacs are let loose then they could hamper the growth of a responsible and profitable relationship between the two countries. The Australian government has got to nip the people responsible for such attacks in the bud before they turn out to prove themselves to be the Frankenstein’s monster.

The strong bond between the two countries has as its supporting pillars – Trust and Responsibility. Few racial maniacs should not put the relationship between the countries in jeopardy. For who knows these maniacs could possibly turnout to be the Gen-next terrorist because after all like terrorists they too derive their roots from the sewer of race, caste and color based differentiation of people. This turn of events could have far reaching consequences on the relationships between the two countries.

Such accidents should not preclude the two nations from holding further talks, because we already have in front our eyes a live example of a political stale mate between two nations one of which, sadly, is our own country. The peace process between India and Pakistan is stuck into stalemate because of India’s persistent demand for Pakistan to take effective actions against the terrorist who are responsible for the Mumbai attacks and Pakistan’s consistent failure to do so. If events turn out to be sore and India had to put similar demands in front of Australia, we could not rule out the possibility of another stalemate.

The two nations have to build up an atmosphere of cultural and technical cooperation and hence to build a stronger and safer world and have to prevent any such iniquitous events from hampering the relationship between them.

All possible measures to curb such incidents are now mandatory to ensure the safety of Indian residents in Australia and hence are mandatory to enhance the positive growth of the region. The Australian foreign minister has take a head start in this direction by involving the Indian Australian businessmen well settled in Australia to come forward and interact with the suffering Indian community and win them over again by making them trust the Australian government which has provided them always full support and protection.

We expect more such measures by the Australian government to clear itself of the blame it has received from the world community of being not able to ensure the safety of its residents and we should hope for the end of such racial attacks very soon.

Greece greased up !!!!

noreply@blogger.com (The Fools Talk) — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 04:39:00 +0000

THE GREEK DEBACLE

The worst is not yet over. Just as the topsy-turvy market began to stabilize after the severe stroke of the Dubai fiasco nearly toppled it, the Greek debacle has once again pushed it into consternation.

Had it not been for the support of Abu Dhabi, Dubai would have possibly collapsed, now the search is on for the savior of the Greek economy.

Corruption is widely regarded as one of the triggers of the Greek debt crisis threatening the euro common currency. Corruption is part of everyday life in Greece, and private households paid more than 780 million euros in bribes in 2009.

But the reality is more complex. A crisis began with the previous government in Athens cooking the books developed into three interlocking themes – the reluctance of the Greeks to swallow the nasty budgetary medicine prescribed for them, the medium-term outlook for the single currency and Europe's long-term role in a rapidly changing global economy.

Goldman Sachs helped the Greek government to mask the true extent of its deficit with the help of a derivatives deal that legally circumvented the EU Maastricht deficit rules. At some point the so-called cross currency swaps will mature, and swell the country's already bloated deficit.

Had it been a country with a currency of its own, it could possibly have alleviated its present predicament by devaluation of its currency and hence would have created fluidity in the market and reined in inflation and national debt. But it can’t help it, being bound by the single currency Euro, over which it has no possible control.

The Country could do nothing but beg the other stronger (comparatively) countries like Germany and France to holds its hands while it is staggering on the precarious bridge to cross over from the land of recession to the new world of fiscal stability.

The IMF is also supposed to bail out the country with a humungous aid to help this debt ridden country.

The big market players are concerned with the present scenario of the commitment level of the Greek government.

The risk of another default or – the doomsday scenario – of Greece deciding to leave the single currency has spooked investors, who are demanding a high price for holding risky Greek debt. The gap between the interest rates on rock-solid Greek bonds has widened sharply.

The political equation of the country is also quite unbalanced with public raging over the price hike and tax cuts. Bedlam is reining over the country.

The Greek prime minister has been criticized for spending cuts in the public sector services and for raising the tax rates which is blurring the already faded vision of a better future.

The Socialist government increased sales, tobacco and alcohol taxes and cut public sector holiday allowances to save 4.8 billion Euros (6.5 billion dollars), equal to about two percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

Pensions in the public and private sector are also frozen.

All this has deeply underlined the error committed by the European countries by making Euro their single currency in haste without considering the possible ramifications. A new sense of direction is what this predicament demands of the European authorities.

The Descent of the G-2

noreply@blogger.com (kaustubhkirti) — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 13:48:00 +0000

The Myth about G-2

Even as Niall Ferguson deciphered the creation of a world economy on the basis of the term Chimerica wherein symbiotically one nation would supplant the needs and demand through its supply and henceforth they would co-exist it was a staggering reality that was bound to take form.

The myth deepened as Obama announced his plans for the creation of a G-2 block last November in coordination with Beijing. One thing has obviously become very clear to everyone that being a superpower America might have enjoyed lots of world hegemony but with the descent of money in the past financial crisis there have been a resurgence of the east and it has caught the vision of every on lookers past the Atlantic from New York to Tokyo that the is always an end.

Everyone is talking and everyone knows- the world economy has entwined itself in such a way that every pawn depends entirely on the movements of these two G-2 countries.

However with the recent list of scandals there have been lots of internal tension that have been generated between the G-2 block and its peaceful co existence kind off looks unlikely. This past winter there have been several events which have struck heavy discord between the two nations.

This winter has been a cold one for China-US relations. So many serious disagreements between the two countries have not surfaced simultaneously for decades: the US is exerting unprecedented pressure on China to revalue the Yuan, a cyber war erupted between Google and the Chinese administration, Washington intends to sell weapons worth $6.4 bn to Taiwan, China dumped US bonds worth $34.2 billion, both sides threaten to introduce punitive import tariffs, and US President B. Obama received 14thDalai Lama Tenzin Gyatso in the White House.

In the past China and the US avoided taking harsh measures against each other serially, but evidently things have changed beyond recognition over the past several months.

Iranian barricade

Obama proposed this particular idea of joining hands with the China to sustain the growth that these two blocks could have had if they joined hands however Iran is one of the issues US is not in the right terms with China. China stands in the way of vetoing against whatever NATO and US proposes in the Security Council to wage aggression against Iran.

This support comes up because Iran is China's major commercial and strategic partner. Over 15% of China's oil import (a total of some 450,000 bpd) is supplied by Iran, with only two countries - Angola and the Saudi Arabia - supplying greater amounts. China took two important new steps to boost its cooperation with Iran in the energy sphere in the late 2009.

China's state-owned Sinopec signed a contract with Tehran to develop the first phase of the Yadavaran oil field, one of Iran's largest, and to invest $6.5 billion in the upgrade of Iran's refining capacities. Beijing reckoned it made no sense to scrap the plans in the name of taking the role of a minor partner in the duet with the US. Thus US have still not being able to tame Iran.

Iran appears in the list of countries of unrecognised countries with the likes Of Nigeria, Yemen etc. This list is released by the United States government wherein they have forgotten to put in names of many other undemocratic governments like Columbia or Honduras which have similar rule but are pawns to the Obama regime.

Iran’s reluctance to trade with US and its trading procedure which it has called to be shifted to be on a non dollar currency intensifies the situational imbalance and strains the relationship in the G-2 block.

Revaluation of the Yuan

Even in the time of the slump the American production house is not being able to sell what it produces because the cheap imports from the Chinese economy that the American consumer has so much got addicted to.

The phrase means as literally as simple it seems- America eats what china produces. This is wrong at least for the American industries. There is no real time market left in the US and with the slump whatever they had has been devastated. They had just now got slightly under the two digit job loss percentage but with no reform.

Jobs are going to be created only if there is demand but the demand is eaten away by the Chinese goods produced and the internal situation remains the same. This situation is intensified because China is a communist nation is not increasing the wages of its people. This triggers its economy to be able to produce export so very cheap that buyers have nowhere else to go.

China agreed to a compromise over the issue in 2005 when it set a flexible rate for Yuan synchronized with a pool of currencies, and the Yuan actually added 21% by July, 2008.

The process came to a halt on the eve of the global economic crisis. Currently the exchange rate is about 6.82 Yuan per US dollar compared to 8.2 Yuan in the early 2005. Industrialized Western countries absorbing the majority of China's exports are unhappy with the arrangement: US President B. Obama and several other Western leaders believe that the artificially underrated Yuan shields the Chinese market from Western imports while giving Chinese exporters an unfair advantage.

This simply means china is using its powers just to keep the economy running at the expense of others.

Taming the $

Beijing found an alternative approach to curbing financial risks – according to the US Department of the Treasury, in December, 2009 China sold $32.2 billion worth of US bonds and thus reduced its stockpile of US bonds to $755 bn. As a result, currently - for the first time since August, 2008 - Japan, not China, is the world's largest holder of US bonds (with a total of $769 billion).

The official version is that China dumped the US bonds in an effort to diversify its currency holdings. To avoid excessively injecting liquidity, China will not likely opt for quick cuts of investments in US bonds. They continue to play an important role in the Chinese currency reserves – the US securities account for some 70% of China's total which has topped $2.3 trillion. Still, China’s is getting rid of a fraction of its dollar assets had repercussions worldwide and may be indicative of the country's long-term strategy.

The simple end results can be expected as follows:

The dependence of china on the American economy would be contained as make it less vulnerable if another series of default occur.

The valuation of the American bonds would seriously suffer if china keeps on dumping them in the market.

With the plans of creation of an SDR to replace the currency for oil trading and gold price calculation the might of the dollar may be tamed. Henceforth with the passage of time it is obvious that trading in dollar is no longer a affectionate choice.

Taiwan and Tibet

Both of these territories are considered to be interwoven with china as China continuously demands them to be its own. This has raised a number of un-necessary remarks from people all around the globe and called for criticism. The Chinese government on these issues is a Nazi of their own kind.

Manhandling as what was done in the recent past was not met with great appreciation from the Chinese side. The recent sale of arms of about 6.4 billion USD to Taiwan by America and the recent warm meeting of 14thDalai Lama Tenzin Gyatso in the White House have been accepted as acts of treachery by the Chinese government. China controls these localities and entertains no un-communist movement in these areas.

Google China Showdown

Last but not the least is the Goole China showdown. Chinese inclination toward controlling media, pubic speech and any other modes of conversation makes it one of the strangest country ever. Even though it projects itself to be a communist country in the capitalistic terms and a country that helps new found capitalistic systems to grow up it is nowhere close to achieve it.

Banning public speech and controlling voices would only reverse growth and nothing else. Google charged China with flooding the world with spyware. According to Google, cyber attacks against its corporate infrastructures had been launched from China. Namely, attempts were made to break the mailboxes registered on Google by Chinese dissenters. Google responded by lifting search request censorship via its engine, thus momentarily conquering a greater share of the Chinese market.

Chinese officials, army, and academic circles deny involvement in the cyber attack, automatically switching the suspicion to Baidu, the main domestic company posing competition to Google. Analysis International says Baidu's market share was roughly twice that of Google in the second half of 2009 – 61.6% vs. 29.1%. While the disparity persists, the gap between the two companies is steadily growing narrower year by year.

At the moment Google's withdrawal from the Chinese market and its compromise with the Chinese administration – that is, the reinstatement of censorship - seem equally possible. Considering that China is home to some 20% of the world's Internet surfers, it is clear that the US Company would hate to lose grip on such a market.

But more could be expected when the situations are naive

Privatisation of Indian Railways

noreply@blogger.com (kaustubhkirti) — Tue, 02 Mar 2010 14:33:00 +0000

Privatisation of Indian Railways

Even as the talks on the privatisation of the Indian Railways intensify with the recent budget saying a complete no to any of that kind solution however Mamta Banerjee adding a minor clause regarding it in the railways budget: This topic has gained an important imposing topic.

Figuring out to silence speculations on the privatisation of Indian Railways Mamta Banerjee simple added that no such proposition is going to be applied this fiscal year however the railway ministry would look into other possible business models for railway development to sustain the growth that the railway ministry has meted out and simultaneously prepare itself for a future growth.

However from my point of view I would like to add some things that I think should be thought over before taking some or the other substantial decision.

Standard of Indian Railways.

Indian railways within the past two UPA elected government has been in a lot of glamour and show off with new and different plans being implemented by the two railway ministers. Another staggering addition has been the growth in the Indian Railway system and the sudden surging profit that this public sector company has achieved. However is the railway still worth the money spent on it?

Well one thing to be noted that Indian Railway for the people of the country is kind of a lifeline. Even if we consider the staggering population of India we can easily see that railways is something that connect one end of the country to the other and is the most cheapest viable and useful medium that people trust and adhere to. Railway is one way or the other attached to most of Indian homes. Therefore there is no two thoughts on how much importance is the railway development to the people of India. Railway is the lifeline of the country.

Every class culture and financial slab of the Indian household enjoys this service. The competitive options like that of airways and roadways are comparatively less favourable in Indian household. Railways end up being the biggest winner.

However if we compare the standard that the Indian Railways provide us I would not particularly want to comment on that. Being in the public domain expectation about the services are not so high henceforth I would grade it as ok.

However compared to the standard of services that railways in foreign countries provide the situation is thought provoking. The diffused quality of railway lines , the time lag, efficiency, cleanliness are some of the points on which the Indian railways could be downgraded and called inefficient however they are able to meet the demand by effective supply somehow more or less which is good

Demand vs Supply

Some say demand equal to supply is the basic equation of any give and take institution and why should Railways be different. Even though the railway industry is not run for effective profit however it always tries to meet the demand that an Indian traveller could create. In short more or less the supply is there. However in the recent times the above equation negates itself when

· There is more demand that means there is an incentive to the Railways to provide more trains

· There is more supply that means there is an opportunity for the people to use more of the railways.

The above two conditions however appear in an economy which in a very fast growing economy wherein a little discord or loss over some time could be easily meted by the sudden rise in profit if that particular policy works. Indian in general however is not so sound enough that the losses could be carried over by the institution.

Siddu was commenting that China is building 4000 km last year of tracks and we built a meagre 200 km and disregarded the budget. What I say is Indian Economy sustainable enough to handle even 500 km of more tracks when the demand side is quiet stable and stagnant. Even with the development of agricultural setups the requirement from that part is still stagnant.

Thus what I conclude for the time being Indian railway is somehow doing justice for the demand. No farmers kill themselves because they did not get the train support. No person killed for lack of transportation. But however I am not implying we would not need privatisation. We would need that and ultimately one of the two points that were forcibly generated demand or supply some time in future as country grows at a very fast pace.

When to privatise?

Efficiency and facilities of the service is always associated with being a private enterprise. However the important thing to keep in mind is that private players seldom take offence and not do anything to make money.

To meet the growth of the railways at some point of time a ruthless private sector would be needed to drive sustainable and revenue generating system but not now. The government with its pace right now is able to cope up with whatever is to be done.

So the question remains when to privatise. My chance would be when the system tells itself that no further it could be handled completely by the government. The system itself is the best indicator of it.

Privatisation would envisage following situational points:

· High Fare

· High efficiency

· High regularity

Thus it would endanger: low cost markets, petty small people etc

Thus privatisation is internally filled with lots and lots of problem as can be imagined herein with.

Solution

No clear cut business model is present to balance the Indian growth properly. Privatisation would satisfy but will also kill. The complexity of the entire financial system complicates lots and lots of matters therefore it is better that a controlled privatisation in a step by step manner is evolved.

More to come..........

NIPPING IN THE ‘BUD’GET

noreply@blogger.com (The Fools Talk) — Tue, 02 Mar 2010 03:46:00 +0000

As the Finance Minister (F.M.) Pranab Mukherjee walked into the Parliament with his usual dignified style for his Budget speech 2010, India Inc. was on the edge because the gamut of measures and reforms they expected to be taken by the government for the current fiscal year were to decide what would happen.

It was going to tell whether the roll back of the Booster measures announced to combat last year’s slowdown would be reversed or possibly the same path would be fortified once again. .

Speech was delivered but was greeted neither with Razzmatazz nor with stoicism, but the package on a whole presaged a fiscal consolidation. A vision was promised in the last year’s Budget session but it seems rather just a revision was possible owing to the ‘Tsunami’ of the financial crisis hit the world economy and nearly wiped out the economic gains of past decade.

Without delving into the labyrinth of statistical figures and to put all the aspects of the budget in a simple order let us look at the major provisions of the Budget by the F.M.

We The People

The Increase in the slab for Income Tax is surely a ‘Holi’ bonanza for the common man with a great amount of saving promised in the Budget by the F.M. This certainly has put more money in the hands of the people and paves a way for stronger economy with the money in the hands of the consumer. We can envisage a better financial consolidation soon.

Industry

While the Minimum Alternative Tax (M.A.T) has been raised the surcharge on the corporate tax has been cut by 2.5% which will alleviate the industry stake holders. The government plans to collect revenues from disinvestment of public sector companies and also by the 3G SPECTRUM auctions hence government will borrow little money from the market in line with its target to contain fiscal deficit. These lower government borrowing will ensure funds are available to the private sector at reasonable prices.

The Auto sector will be hard hit with the price hike of petrol and diesel, but the decrease in the tax slabs for the middle and high income families will put the Automakers in a position to pass their tax burden on the consumer without much effect on both the supplier and the consumer side.

Farmers

With the new policy allowing direct hand over of subsidies to the farmers in form of cash in lieu of oil bonds, the F.M. has struck the right note enabling the Monsoon struck poor farmer to get out of his predicament.

Although more than 50% of the farmer subsidies will land into the pockets of the Agriculture-Industrialists but still it will cascade the overall effect of the development of the Indian agriculture since these subsidies will pave the path for the construction of cold stores and would hence prevent the damage to the crop and hence will boost the sales.

Also the 6 months extension on the repayment of loan proposed by the F.M. is a ray of hope for the farmers suffocating in the dungeon of the crisis due to poor Monsoon.

Banks

In accordance with the Loan waiver policy adopted last year the F.M. has gifted the Harvester of the Indian economy, the farmer, a 6 months extension on the repayment of loan which has benefited the Banks considerably.

Had the relief not come banks would have been force to categories the overdue farmer loans in their books as ‘NPA’ (Non-performing loans) in the fourth quarter which would have showed in their results in March ’10.

Also after the rise in the loan deposit ratio banks will now re-deploy assets from their low yielding bonds to loans.

Major Criticism

The fuel price hike has certainly the potential to be the Nemesis of the U.P.A. government for the next general election but it was an imperative move which was required to keep the State owned companies from going under because they need humungous subsidies to balance their chart-sheets which the our debt ridden economy can’t provide.

The deregulation of the oil prices will profits of the government owned companies like –IOCL, ONGC, GAIL would increase. After initial inflation it will eventually contain overall inflation in the long run and improve efficiency from competition among retailers .and search for alternative fuels, boost energy conservation and rein in fiscal deficit.

Pragmatic Moves

A Central Electronic Registry will be established soon. The Central Electronic Registry would be a database of all mortgages and the banks that have a charge, so whenever a borrower seeks to avail loan against a property, lender will be able to verify whether anyone has already got a charge of the property.

The announcement of the Financial Stability and Development council is a good move to control the financial Infrastructure of the Nation.

To round up simply, the government works in a loop. It takes money from the people in through Direct and Indirect taxes and simultaneously delivers it back to the same people by plethora of social services. Budget presented by our F.M. has sensibly managed the conflicting objectives of growth, inflation and fiscal prudence. The partial rollback of the fiscal stimulus in form of increased excise duty is in line with the market expectations and is considered prudent by the market analysts.

Budget has some inflationary effects too but it won’t be more than 0.4% according to our responsible F.M. and he assures that it would be contained effectively.

Certainly the F.M. could not have nipped the Recession in the “BUD” but most positively he has tried to Nip it in his “BUDGET”.

leela

noreply@blogger.com (The Fools Talk) — Sun, 28 Feb 2010 09:20:00 +0000

She tottered barefoot across the courtyard with uncertain steps, glancing up impatiently every now and then at the lone star shining through the morning mist. Dewdrops clouded her glasses, barring even the vestiges of what used to be her vision. With a flash of annoyance, she grabbed them off her face and tossed them onto the stone floor. A little clunk was all she heard as the absolute stillness of the sepulcher was devoured by the rooster’s cry. Her heart lifted. As if in answer, her feet responded. They spelled out a beat. Momentary. Then the rooster’s second cry. On cue. She glanced up to her left. Right at the corner of the high walled courtyard of her ancient house, she could see the first rays of the sun peeking through. Dawn had broken. Routine. Timed. She heaved a sigh. An echo. It came from the bricks of her home, the mortar that held them together, the history that had been lived there - in answer to a sigh they had been witness to since so many days that they had lost count.

She moved towards her mother’s portrait, her fountain of strength she drank from every morning. A blur. She cursed her glasses.

She heard it then, the milkman’s whistle. It was a signal from him, the milkman – she liked to call him Shyam in her mind. All was well with the world. The wrinkles on that drooping face lit up in a smile. So did her courtyard, she thought with awe. Perhaps it was her heightened sense of clarity that day, or one of those coincidental realizations of the divine present in our mundane mortal lives.

As she pottered around with her little chores, her lips moved soundlessly. In perfect rhythm. But she had no words. She didn’t worry. The words would come. And they did. It was the song urchins sang as they played hopscotch under the great banyan that grew right outside her home. It was tradition, the kids had changed, the song hadn’t.

The sparrows came then, her everyday visitors. She brought out a handful of grains to feed them. She heard the yells of Ramesh and Lakshmi, her neighbors for as far as she could remember, as they quarreled to a practiced tiff. She smiled in reminiscence. She counted to five. The thud. Count to seven. Another thud. She had been detached from the physicality of it long ago. And she really liked their kids Luv and Kush. They called her Eeya. She would knit them new sweaters, she thought, smiling in anticipation. She got up and looked around. The sparrows wouldn’t leave her alone today, she thought, surprised. They had outstayed their normal schedule. Well, I wouldn’t bother, she thought crossly, they just think I am an old woman with nothing better to do.

Indignant, and energized by the rush of it, she walked quickly across the yard to the storeroom, her treasure trove of family heirlooms, keepsakes from times gone by and the wisps of memory she had forgotten existed. It had not been opened for ten years, she thought in amazement. Ever since Gayatri had left home. Her helper Gayatri. But she wouldn’t think of that, she decided. Bygones were bygones. She unlocked the storeroom and walked in. Right in front of her stood the green box her Nani had given her, dusty, yet retaining that inner sheen that she’d always associated with her Nani’s face. She brought it out.

With a smile on her face, she sat down cross-legged in the center of the courtyard and opened her box. The little trinket glistened in the sunlight. She had been given it when she was born. Her thoughts wandered. To another era, or so it seemed. Of experiences. And to the mere shadow of life she was living now.

Just then she heard the ruckus from above. Routine was back. She could have danced at the thought. Jayanti, who was carrying her baby, and her mother Saraswati. Arguing. She decided she would give the trinket to Jayanti at the birth of her child. She was enjoying herself now. She spoke out the words as they were being played upstairs next door. You don’t take care of me at all, I’m going to have a baby. Beta, calm down. No I won’t, it’s just not fair. Beta listen, I’m trying to tell you something. I’m not listening to anything, I have been…

The words caught in her throat. Suddenly. Unexpectedly. She felt choked. She glanced up, squinting her eyes at the noon sun. She looked back down. Her sparrows were still there. In that moment of epiphany, she understood. The sounds were fading out. With great affection, she looked around one last time…

India - A nation without women

noreply@blogger.com (The Fools Talk) — Fri, 19 Feb 2010 21:17:00 +0000

4 July 1776, 15 August 1947,26 March 1971 and 24 May 1993.
Historic days in the history of mankind. These were the days when countries namely The United States, India, Bangladesh and Eritrea came to be known as FREE…
But there seems to be a slight little misconception to the whole world, as this was just an Indian way of actually fooling the world that it is FREE…

62 Years, 6 Months and 6 days have passed and the illusion is still pretty much intact in the minds of the world.
Yes you/me are FREE, but ask once again is the country FREE. Unfortunately not.

The Image speaks for itself.
RAPE: every 54 minutes. 9733 every year
MOLESTATION: every 26 minutes. 20215 every year
EVE TEASING: every 51 minutes. 10305 every year
DOWRY DEATHS: every 102 minutes. 5153 every year
CRIMINAL OFFENCE: every 7 minutes. 75085 every year

An important note: Notice the line “These are just the reported statistics”. Its not just appalling to see this image, its even more terrifying that the statistics can only be more in reality.

And unfortunately its the fairer sex which seems the not FREE… Yes we are the Future superpower and have the best human brains but also the most cruel country in this whole world.

Matrubhoomi, a film that was released in 2005, examines the impact of female foeticide and female infanticide on the gender balance, and consequently the stability and attitudes of society. Its story seems a little too over the top to most – How can there be no women left in this world. The movie depicts a simple scenario of what might happen if there are no women left in the nation.

One by one every girl child born is fed into boiling milk like dry-fruit toppings, killed ruthlessly and mercilessly. No wonder the village is left with NO absolutely no women. There's chaos everywhere, Men want women like a little boy wants ice-cream. Desperate for any thing to satisfy their as we call in it in Hindi hawas, even cows aren't spared.
And suddenly by god’s grace a woman is found, whats in store for her is nothing less than a living hell.
People learn from mistakes, they say. Unfortunately thats in fantasy.
Rapes, abuses and tortures seem like eating chocolates when compared.
Sold by her father for 5 lakh and 5 COWS, married to five brothers, shared like an apple sliced into ~~5 parts~~ oops 6 parts, even her father in law wants a piece of her- getting an additional 1 lakh for her father when she writes to him about it. Bound like a Cow, she is raped and raped and tortured. The climax does give justice to her but also brings about the end of every living being in the village except her and her little girl child.
Desperation- Ego- MEN haven’t been depicted more evil ever…
The movie ends and you feel a relief that this is fiction, it just cant be true, there cant be a place in this UNIVERSE which doesn't have women.

However 5 years down the line its still pretty much applicable, India is slowly but steadily turning into – what the movie calls – a NATION WITHOUT WOMEN.

And just when you thought you cant find a single village without women, we come across these photographs.

These are the epic moments in the history of DEVDA a village in Jaisalmer district, where Shagun Kanwar was only the SECOND girl of the village to get married in 120 years. Yes she was the SECOND girl in the last ONE HUNDERD AND TWENTY YEARS. The other being her sister, Jayant Kanwar, who got married in 1998, was the FIRST to be married after 108 YEARS of no girl child marriage in the village.

TERRIFYING HORRIFYING and APPALLING , the very truth in India being free is shattered by these facts. How on earth can anyone kill yes KILL their own child with their own bloody hands. How can all they see is that a GIRL child brings with her the baggage of dowry and a BOY child is their shortcut to becoming rich.
Every country is considered to be a mother land- a female, every LIVING PERSON’S MOTHER is a female, every SISTER in this world is a girl, yet there isn’t any respect and sense of gratitude.
Yes i know, all i am doing against it is write and all you will do is probably read in awe of the harsh reality, but somewhere something has to be done, and its easier said than done. The least we can do is pledge to RESPECT the women of our nation.

I NOT so PROUD to be an INDIAN ….

CARBON Emission: Only Credit no Payment

noreply@blogger.com (kaustubhkirti) — Thu, 18 Feb 2010 16:07:00 +0000

Trading CO2 or TRASH

Kill Bill Vol: 1

(Reviewing Copenhagen Accord)

Even as the lights of the Copenhagen Accord that were lit by the world leaders from the BASIC countries and the last minute entry Barack Obama flickers with no remunerations, we still have no sustainable or substantial news of where it stands and what is going to done with it now that the Kyoto Protocol ends.

Leaving it at a juncture where no signature or exact bindings were imposed what more could be expected rather than a probability that the world leaders might pay heed to what deliverables they had proposed in the summit- then and there just to keep their word.

As the dealings of the markets heat up with the Obama induced bailout money in banks and financial corporations on the either side of the Atlantic what marks is an end to the securitization of home loans but has brought in another kind of attractive financial intermediately to deal with.

The word has gone out and with the takeover of Sempra Energy by J P Morgan in multibillion dollar deal it is all but clearly stated that the world moving into the direction of a climate fiasco and the market is following it too.

The Copenhagen summit began with the small island nation in the Caribbean and the pacific region around Oceania urging to establish a binding norm of reducing global temperatures to the 1.5C levels which was however not accepted however by any of the developed or developing nations. Instead they urged their own choices of norms which they wanted to set for themselves.

The take of the developed countries which included the likes of Germany, USA and France was that they promised to generate enough credit to the nations for emission control but that would not be before 2020. Before 2020 they were hazy about how much money they would be able to generate. Except for the likes of Japan which promised to induce around 100 billion USD by 2012 the rest of the developed world was an outstanding shame.

Obama defended his keep by presenting the financial state of the developed world but left no answer to the simple question what would be the use of an economy if no world existed. But the thing to think about is that the world is heading the same way from where it came from with market planning on the cap and trade agreements.

The same should have been evenly proposed to the developing nations. Even though the accord held them responsible for nothing just their meagre wish to contribute or not to contribute but their indecision to decide on binding contract provided they had every power in their hands was their blow up.

Kill Bill Vol: 2

(Reviewing what they have in MIND)

But the biggest blow up of this economic and climatic system is yet to come up. With the growing trend of economies shifting to cap and trade policy wherein they are going to capitalise the security market on basis of suture carbon emission and the sale of carbon credit the future of derivative trading is booming with probability of another financial bubble.

Even George Soros, the billionaire hedge fund operator, says money managers would find ways to manipulate cap-and-trade markets. “The system can be gamed,” Soros, 79, remarked at a London School of Economics seminar in July. “That's why financial types like me like it -- because there are financial opportunities”

Obama speaks of financial regulations and curbing the investment activities but simultaneously passes the cap and trade bill in the senate. Passing the bill would force everyone to deal with carbon credits ( as a matter of fact it is a necessity to control global warming) but with the development of carbon trading the fund and money generation would be done by nothing other than derivatives.

The banks are preparing to do with carbon credits what they've done before: design and market derivatives contracts that will help client companies hedge their price risk over the long term. They're also ready to sell carbon-related financial products to outside investors.

Recent income of ten billion USD by Laxmi Mittal is but a taste of what all is bound to come.

According to a Bloomberg report: Blythe Masters says banks must be allowed to lead the way if a mandatory carbon-trading system is going to help save the planet at the lowest possible cost. And derivatives related to carbon must be part of the mix, she says. Derivatives are securities whose value is derived from the value of an underlying commodity -- in this case, CO2 and other greenhouse gases...

Who is Blythe Masters?? She is the JP Morgan employee who invented credit default swaps (the thing that brought the end of AIG), and is now heading JPM's carbon trading efforts.

Masters, 40, oversees the New York bank's environmental businesses as the firm's global head of commodities. As a young London banker in the early 1990s, Masters was part of JPMorgan's team developing ideas for transferring risk to third parties. She went on to manage credit risk for JPMorgan's investment bank.

And we think the United States has no clear agenda in the Copenhagen Summit. No bindings but installing the cap and trade policy was an early prediction but let us see what other things also come true!!

Menace: Dragon on th LOOSE!!!!

noreply@blogger.com (kaustubhkirti) — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 15:57:00 +0000

The Good the Bad the Ugly

Even as the lights of a desolate ghost town in the American Civil War goes out as the Yankees and the White ‘gores’ rushed on each other neck in the most vicious slaughtering anthem the triumphs however fell in the laps of African Americans who won it over and over in the name of equality, liberty and freedom.

This was one victory for them however past the Atlantic ocean in the new Africa of the new millennium failed policies of the West still eludes people of how spectacularly the black have fallen back in time in contrast with the West.

Something that appeared in the New York Times recently said that- ‘While most of the developing world has managed to reduce poverty, the rate in Sub-Saharan Africa, the world’s most poorest region, has not changed in nearly 25 years. Half of the people in Sub- Saharan Africa were living below the poverty line in 2005, the same as in 1981. That means about 389 million lived under the poverty line in 2005, compared with 200 million in 1981.

The African continent with the exceptions of some countries like South Africa and Egypt fails to stand up to the levels of any developing country and still stands in the line of under developed nations and shudder at the in-conclusive non-conceding and non pragmatic policies of the West that have failed and done nothing other than spreading mass despair amongst the people.

However a striking new recent debatable topic has come up as the media strengthens in the African nations and the Chinese presence in Africa is being felt at every part of the globe that Africa inherently is not poor. There is no region in the world that has faced such obsessed path to degradation and downturn, no region that has faced such disruptive government and mass rioting, there have been no nations that have suffered rather than Africa itself.

Even being master of mineral resources and being the future supplier as the world stands astonished at its wealth, Africa still stands deprived owing to a simple reason. Africa is not poor because of the residue of colonialism or the machinations of large global corporations. Africa is not poor because of poor resource endowments or climate. Africa is not poor due to corporations. Africa is not poor because of poor resource endowments or climate. Africa is poor because of barbaric governments, unruly monarchies and un-stabilised cabinets in most of these countries that have in one way or the other.

These governments since 1961 have done little for the development of the people rather than they have been under the payroll of Western economies for the vested interests of the West and the governmental stability in the African nations had been at a compromise.

A is A: West is West

Even as I trace back the past two decades into the development of the African nations there have not been much change. Whatever little change there have been it can be traced back to some or the other Western policies which have been holding on to the change. Africa recorded a respectable 5.2 percent rate of economic growth in 2007 it was reported 4.3 percent of it was supported by the US.

Now that commodity prices are falling in consequence of a global recession, however, all that growth and more will be undone once things fall in line. Angola, for example, maintained the continent’s fastest rate of economic growth of 20.8 percent in 2007, occasioned by high oil prices. But Angola’s oil bonanza has not helped the poor, has not been invested for future growth, and certainly will not continue, as prices have now fallen below $50 per barrel Angola is going down.

Ghana, too, is an emerging economic success story according to the World Bank, while Uganda has chalked up impressive growth rates averaging 8 percent in recent years. But real successes stories do not come with a bloated bureaucracy headed by ninety cabinet ministers and deputy ministers, as in Ghana. Nor do they come with a budget that is 55 percent dependent on foreign assistance, as in Uganda.

The West has not let the African nations prosper and had held them continuously under it arms. Be it the Cold War or may be oil production the money to the African nations have never been in development of democracy or the people elected government, it has always gone to corrupt monarchs and government officials only to buy their loyalty and to make their stance felt quite literally everywhere.

Bush institutionalised a plan in which he said that African countries would qualify for American aid only if their governmental conditions were secure. Now in order for them to come up he passed another loan to the countries to cope up with corruption. What a mockery of the system. Can you believe it, the Western government helped the African ones through fiscal means only to help them be able to come up to the level for further aid and interesting that level was never achieved.

Who talks about the present??

Traditionally as I had presumed that it is not the country that is poor and helpless rather it is the people that have been placed and forced in bounded slavery due to the rampant corrupt government practices and the not required western influences. During the Cold War, Western aid was mainly about buying political loyalty, not alleviating poverty.

As George Soros has put it, to “serve the interests of the donors first and the needs of the recipients second.” Americans and Westerners should therefore care what happens to Africa because its problems are in no small part the West’s making—no, not the sins of slavery, colonialism and imperialism, but more recently committed sins of selfishness, ignorance and, now we see it revealed on a massive scale, false pride.

The way to begin repairing the Western approach is, first, to quash the feel-good impulse to throw money at a problem. The Africans are not mindless people with whom the much developed nation is playing with. A sound fundamental approach is required if the West actually want the Blacks to come up.

The high inflation in Zimbabwe or maybe the terrorist outfit voicing themselves in Somalia, Horn of Africa and Nigeria and simultaneous military coups here and this is just a taste of what unsettling dispute that is under the process of being unleashed on all the parts of the world.

In any event, the so-called reform process has been stalled through vexatious chicanery, wilful deception and creative acrobatics for decades. Only 16 out of the 54 African countries are democratic, and all but a few of these 16 are frail or manqué. Only eight, after all, have reasonably free and independent media.

Only one or two countries have consistent levels of economic growth sufficient to keep up with population growth. But so what? The answer is just simple the Western countries have been putting in money in the system under no ethical grounds only for their own good. They are doing just for their sake and nothing else.

Inglorious Bustards

Bustard is supposedly chiefly terrestrial game bird capable of powerful swift flight and here in we have a huge bustard wading in and around the Africa in search of its miraculous reserves and no points to guess it is the People’s Republic of China. China has been wading heavily on the African nations.

With in investments in all the major African nations and instalments From Cape Verde to Madagascar, in the smallest settlement or in thumping Lagos and Kinshasa, Chinatowns are popping up, packed with cheap imported goods from China—plastic buckets, shoes, clothes, household wares. And when Chinese investors build roads and bridges in oil-rich countries, while dishing out big loans, the labour is mostly imported. China is everywhere in Africa. It is building roads, making monasteries, building schools constructing governments.

China is the light and the Africa is living in it, but the question still remain how much benefit all is this relationship going to be and how much positive it may turn out compare to the past ones that have soured and have only thrown democracy out of the system more and more. This relation being with a communist more holds much more public speech at a ransom.

The good thing about China can be recapitulated is that its presence cannot be compared to the Wets that has been here. West has for long shied away from plans that may have brought in proper growth and kept itself confined to its own resolutions. However China has been involved in every single infrastructure building and development process and has provided an illustrious example of co existence where it has settled its needs by helping others. China is definitely not there just to cut the cake. It may have in mind getting a large part of it however it is doing a lot for others too.

China's phenomenal economic growth serves as a source of inspiration for much of Africa. It gives the countries renewed hope that they too can start to grow out of poverty and become important players on the global scene.

In February 2010, China launched the China-Africa Economic and Technology Cooperation Committee of the China Economic and Social Council aimed at helping Africa to learn from China's development experiences. Speaking at the launch ceremony in Beijing, Ghana's ambassador to China, Helen Mamle Kofi, said the country's economics provide Africa with an "example to follow in terms of economic, financial, social, technological and cultural integration".

Finally, China is also offering Africa additional ways to approach the linkages between economic growth and governance. Over the last two decades Africa has experimented with multi-party democracy. The assumption was that Western-style democracy was a prerequisite for Africa's economic growth. But the evidence is inconclusive. Democracy fosters growth just as much as growth enables growth. But none of it happens automatically; it takes concerted collective effort.

Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon

However another part of the picture is coming up. China's engagement with Africa should be a boon. Its overall trade with Africa rose from $10.6 billion in 2000 to $75.5 billion in 2008, propelling Africa's growth rate to 5.8% in 2008, its best performance since 1974. China is now Africa's second-largest trading partner after the United States, importing a third of its crude oil from Africa. Further, Africa needs the investment, in particular, to rebuild its decrepit infrastructure.

A November 2009 World Bank Report states: "The poor state of infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa—its electricity, water, roads and information and communications technology (ICT)—cuts national economic growth by two percentage points every year and reduces productivity by as much as 40 percent." To close the infrastructure gap, an annual spending of $93 billion would be required.

Thus, Chinese investment in Africa's infrastructure should be most welcome. But China's engagement is increasingly being seen as odious, predatory and brutish. The initial enthusiasm that greeted Chinese investments in Africa has now cooled.

China is now doing what previously the West had tried and failed. China is back to favouring the rampant corrupt governments bribing bureaucrats just to keep its own export and import on the continent stable. What has happened is that it has become second biggest trade partner entity with African countries and has captured the entire internal market. China has paid to capture the entire internal market and now is driving with it.

The claim that China's intentions in Africa are noble is fatuous. Its real intentions are well known: to elbow out all foreign companies and gain access to Africa's resources at cheap prices; canvas for African votes at the UN in its quest for global hegemony; isolate Taiwan ( with the support of the African nations ); and seek new markets for Chinese manufactures as European markets become saturated with Chinese goods.

Also is its quest for African land to dump its surplus population. As a condition for Chinese aid, African states must accept large numbers of Chinese experts and workers as part of their investment packages. Chinese communes are springing up across Africa. In Namibia, the number of Chinese expatriates has reached 40,000, with 100,000 in Zambia and 120,000 in Nigeria.

Reportedly there is something else, China has a secret plan, called the Chongqing Experiment, to resettle 12m of its farmers in Africa and we are not blind enough to see what is happening!!!

hungry kya!!!!!! Eat a kookaburra ball.....

noreply@blogger.com (The Fools Talk) — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 15:22:00 +0000

Is it in the blood of Pakistani players to be in the limelight for all the wrong things?????

If not then why was Shahid Afridi was caught trying to bite the ball as if he didn't had the breakfast that morning?? Afridi should have been hungry for the runs rather than the red apple on that recent Australian tour which saw his team ruthlessly defeated in all the three formats of the game .The T-20 captain of Pakistan didn't even realize that their were around 15 cameras during the match waiting to catch the glimpse of such an act and caught him doing the offensive. This incredible public display has enough effect to ban Afridi for two matches over the allegations of ball tempering and what to say to him...Yo buddy enjoy!!

What has happened to Pakistan cricketers?? They seem to be beleaguered with all sorts of problems all the time. This incident has added another pin to Pakistani cricketer’s grave image. The alacrity with which Pakistani used to play their cricket seems to be dying out. The team urgently requires a great leader who can bring back harmony and impetuosity in their team.

After Inzamam retired, they have tried different captains like Younis Khan, Mohammed Yousuf,Shoiab Malik, Misbah, Afridi all of them have failed miserable to stabilize the team. They have tried 4-5 opening pair recently, all of them failed. Kamran Akmal who has been the part of the team for very long time was castigated heavily after he dropped 5 catches in a test match against Australia which led to his team's shameful defeat. He is also in the firing line.

Pakistan cricket has become a complete mess. Their middle order is in complete state of pandemonium. Mohammed Yusuf has been in and out of the team due to his ICL issues.

Younis Khan had been blamed for match fixing and was dropped for the crucial series against australia. Misbah was also recently dropped from all three version of the game in New Zealand tour owing to his slow reflexes.

Their bowlers are also feeling the heat after underperforming in recent tours. After taking lots of criticism throughout his career it seems Shoiab Akhtar has taken Rawalpindi Express to go away from cricket as far as possible. He had always been in the limelight for all the bad reason anyone can think about. His ounterpart Mohammed Asif has been suffering from injuries which has left him in acrimony.

The current bunch of Pakistani players looks like any other B grade team.The current team lacks in batting, bowling, FIELDING, SELF DISCIPLINE....etc (list is very long). There was time when pakistan cricket had dominated the world.players like Javed miadad,Saeed anwar, Ijad ahmed, Inzamam, Salim malik, Aamir sohail etc.had earned a lot of fame for their batting display.Their bowlers had creared havoc on every pitch of the world they played. Teams feared the bowlers like Wasim akram, Waqar younis, saqlain mushtaq, Imran khan...etc. .

Last year terrorists attacks on srilankan team had added misery to pakistan cricket. The world now fears to go in their den to play the game. Their fan list has been abated considerably all around the world.The golden era of pakistan cricket has gone.PCB should take some audacious decision and work cordially with the coach and captain to reunite the team and bring back the flavour of cricket for which pakistan was known!!!!