Sao Paulo are interestingly still mid-table despite a barren run but can only extend their thanks to their ever-reliable defence for that. Star striker Dagoberto went missing in recent times and was thus dropped from the side, which then meant Sao Paulo didn't score goals. Playmaker Hernanes joined Lazio and it's taken them some to time to adjust to his departure. However, Sao Paulo are mounting their atypical late run with four games without defeat. They've claimed an impressive draw at league leaders Fluminense along the way, albeit via a little fortune, and have won their last two games consecutively since then. Ironically, they're abandoning their defensive nature in the search for goals and it's yielding success for the giants with eight points taken from a possible twelve of late. They've scored seven goals along the way and have generally looked a very solid unit. Dagoberto may not be back to his best but he's on his way and the side are clearly inspired by it with the likes of Fernandao getting on the scoresheet to bolster Sao Paulo's cause. I'd argue that this side isn't the best that they've had in years but they're still one of the better sides in Brazil overall and their form is finally starting to show it. With momentum behind them and potency rife in the Sao Paulo camp, I fancy them to do a lot of damage tonight.

Visitors Flamengo are no mugs in defence but a complete lack of goalscoring generally renders them somewhat useless. Petkovic is a good player to have in the side but age is not on his side. Diogo is reportedly injured so the reliance lies with new signing Deivid and although he has the talent to fulfill the role, it's still a big ask for him to do it tonight against in-form Sao Paulo. Flamengo are actually edging closer and closer to the unthinkable relegation places following just one win in their last ten games. They've only scored once in their last five consecutive games, which just isn't good enough. Ok, they've only conceded four goals along the way during that run of five games but that's been enough to see them lose three times because they're not scoring. Morale is low and it's very easy to understand why too. They've scored a meager five goals on the road this season in nine games, which is a record so bad that only Vitoria can match their poor goalscoring tally and they're always poor away from home! As a result, Flamengo have lost six out of nine on the road and unless they pick things up soon, they're going to be dragged into a relegation battle that I don't think they're good enough to get out of.

Basically, we have an in-form and potent Sao Paulo facing a demoralised and impotent Flamengo side in Sao Paulo. Logic says that Sao Paulo should have a lot of fun here and I'm inclined to agree with that. I appreciate Sao Paulo haven't had a great season but 4/5 on a home win in this game is far too generous. Sao Paulo are scoring for fun and I seriously doubt Flamengo being able to even register a goal here. This game has a home win written all over it at rather good odds too!

Verdict: Sao Paulo to win at 4/5.

Wednesday's Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Gremio vs Atletico Goianiense - both sides to score at 4/5.

I like this bet a lot, really. Gremio are generally an unders side due to stout defending and ineffectual attacking butt heir new brand of attacking football leaves them a potent threat with Gremio having scored for six successive games. They've gathered some momentum following three games unbeaten and even won their last home game. They claimed an impressive 2-2 draw at Botafogo last match and generally are showing a resilience that they've rarely had all season long and boy have they missed it! I still don't rate their attack with only Jonas able to find the net currently but their momentum gives me confidence in their attack and they do average scoring over a goal per home game so far this season so they should be able to score tonight.

The big question is whether minnows Atletico Goianiense score or not. You could be forgiven for thinking that they wouldn't be a mere glance at the Serie A table but that's not really the case here. They're in the relegation zone due to inexperience in the division and not taking their chances but neither seem to be affecting them currnetly. They've scored in five consecutive games now, games like their 3-0 win at Palmeiras, their 2-2 draw at home to Avai, and even a thumping 4-1 win at home to Vitoria last match. They've notched up eleven goals in five games now as the fear of relegation has hit them and they're now playing as if released from a cage with goals galore and good results as an outcome. Only Sao Paulo have beaten them in their last five games so they won't be daunted by a trip to Porto-Alegrense. Atletico are very much determined to beat the drop, based on the above evidence, so I think they have to go all out here to try and get some points and they're more than capable of doing so in their current form.

I don't know what's going to happen as a result here. Quality-wise, Gremio should win this game every day of the week but the way both sides are playing at the moment leaves this game looking like a massive "over 2.5 goals" game and one where both sides score. I won't be backing either side in the 1X2 market - no value there for me - so I'd recommend taking both sides to score, sitting back, and enjoying the ride here.

Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.

Accumulator fodder:

Fluminense

Recommended bets:

Fluminense and Sao Paulo at 2/1.

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today's games, see below!

Copa Recopa Sudamericana:

Estudiantes De La Plata vs Liga de Quito (7) 2-1

Brazilian Serie A:

Fluminense vs Ceara (8) over 2.5 goals
Cruzeiro vs Internacional (6) 1-1
Gremio vs Atletico Goianiense (6) both sides to score
Goias vs Guarani (6) 1-1
Sao Paulo vs Flamengo (7) over 2.5 goals
Vitoria vs Palmeiras (6) 2-1
Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians (7) 1-1

Colombian Primera A:

Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Atletico Nacional de Medellin (5) 1-1 

Finnish Ykkonen:

KooTeePee Kotka vs Viikingit Helsinki (4) draw no bet

Norwegian Divisjon 1:

Alta vs Nybergsund (6)

Singaporean S-League:

Tampines Rovers vs Etoile (6) 2-2

Enjoy your free betting tips!

Today's featured game is the UEFA European Championship Qualifier in Ta'Qali between Malta and Latvia. I'm going out on a limb to presume this isn't on all of your lists of "games to watch" today but nonetheless there should be some value here.

I think it's fair to say that Latvia are the better of these two sides but there's little in it nowadays which is more due to Malta becoming hardened aganist good sides rather than Latvia's partial stagnation. Malta demonstrated in their last match at Israel that they're hard to beat and although they did lose the game 3-1, it's worth pointing out that that they could and should have scored more goals themselves - it wasn't one-way traffic as it used to be. Malta held Republic of Macedonia to a credible 1-1 draw at home in a friendly prior to that game so I don't see them entering this game in a demoralised fashion. They've got two experienced attackers in Bogdanovic and Mifsud so they should give their visitors something to think about today. Malta's speciality, if indeed it can be called that, is defending. They're well-organised, as you'd expect with strong links to England, and are generally hard to break down. They've scored for four consecutive home games and have troubled all of their opponents during that time - all they're lacking is stamina and quality, really - they're still hard to beat though.

Visitors Latvia emerged onto the European scene back in 2003 when they miraculously dumped Turkey out of the UEFA European Championship Qualifiers thanks to a 1-0 win at home and a 2-2 draw away. Their displays weren't particularly special; they defended well and played a long ball to emerging striker Maris Verpakovskis but with his pace, that worked well. Latvia subsequently performed very well at the European Championships and were a bit unlucky, really, but they've learned a lot from the experience. They've not exactly flourished as a footballing nation since then as their football level is about the same but their football as a whole has benefited and they're now starting to produce a few more players. The legends of Pahars, Verpakovskis, Rubins, and Kolinko are little more than memories nowadays as Latvia prepares itself for a new generation of footballers. Their leading light in that quest is Lech Poznan striker Artems Rudnevs, a very bright and potent prospect indeed. Unfortunately for Latvia, it's usually him and/or Karlsons against the world and that tends to leave them short on goals as a 3-0 defeat at home to Croatia a few days indicated all too well. They've still got experienced heads in the team like Gorkss and Laizans and Pereplyotkins' pace is always a threat but they're not ready (in my opinion) to win this kind of game in the fashion that they really should. I'd quite like to see Starkovs take a chance and call up Skonto Riga prospect Karasausks into the first team as the future is the only way for Latvia to look now. Four out of Latvia's last five away games have gone under 2.5 goals as they don't score many and keep it tight at the back with only a rampant Czech Republic shattering their consecutive under 2.5 goals run so they're generally reliable enough at the back to keep scorelines low.

So, what to make of this game? Realistically, Latvia should win this game but the odds don't interest me given their lack of incisive attacking and Malta's ability to score goals at home. I'm not interested in the 1X2 markets here though - my interest is awakened by the under 2.5 goals market, obviously. Both sides will fancy their chances here so I don't see either side attacking without throwing caution to the wind as neither side are going to want to lose this for obvious reasons. I expect a shrewd game here but I think under 2.5 goals at 4/5 represents some value today.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.

Tuesday's Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Russia vs Slovakia - under 2.5 goals at 3/4.

These two sides are too similar for my liking here. Ok, so you guys can name more Russian players than Slovakian players - big deal! They're both very similar sides with defence first and attack later. Neither side offers a terrific amount in attack although Russia unquestonably edge it with playmaker Arshavin in their side, as he can unlock most defences with ease. Whether Russia's strikers i.e. Pavlyuchenko, Pognebryak etc. take their chances or not is another matter entirely. Both of those strikers have something in common; neither of them are prolific. They're both target men and that tends to be their sole role with both averaging scoring less than a goal per every two international games. The energy of Dzagoev and Zhirkov is essential to breathe life into this somewhat stale and dormant Russian side although whether new manager Dick Advocaat fields them both in this game is another matter entirely. What I will give Russia here is that their side is more experience than Slovakia's and of course they are at home, although I'm not sure how much of an advantage Lokomotiv Moscow's ground is as I've not seen the national team play there much. With the above in mind, though, you have to think that Advocaat will be sensible enough to field one of the local boys - Dmitri Sychev, Diniyar Bilyaletdinov, and Dmitri Torbinskiy - as they're home-grown Lokomotiv Moscow boys and the fans will rally behind the side even moreso if any of those three play.

Don't get me wrong here - I do think Russia will win this game. However, they're facing a Slovakia side that are well-organised to the point of exhaustion and although it's not good to watch, it is usually effective. The likes of Skrtel and Pekarik playing in defence with Everton goalkeeper Jan Mucha between the sticks tends to favour them. As you probably all now by now, Marek Hamsik pulls the strings in this side with his superb passing ability and runs through the middle although the pace of the likes of Svento and Weiss on the flanks is a potent threat when his father Weiss is bold enough to play an attacking Slovakian side, which is every blue moon so I wouldn't read much into it. Slovakia's attackers are predictable - Vittek and Jendrisek are the pacey ones and Holosko is the target man - but what's worse is that they're rarely fielded together so they rarely surprise anyone in attack. I can't doubt Slovakia's tenacity but they're a very predictable side. I doubt either Oravec or Sylvestr will play in this game, incidentally! That said, that doesn't make them any easier to beat so Slovakia stand a better chance of getting a result here than the odds suggest, in my opinion. I can't see Weiss fielding Holosko here because they plays right into the hands of the Russian defence. If I was Weiss, I'd play the pacey players to counter-attack swiftly but I don't know if he will or not because I'm not him, obviously! What I'm trying to say here is that Slovakia are a very difficult side to break down and I don't see Russia having it all their own way today so I see a low-scoring encounter here.

I do think Russia should win this but I don't see any value in the odds as they're not good enough in attack on a consistent basis to convince me otherwise. Russia were poor in their 2-0 win at Andorra last match, in which one of their goals was from the penalty spot, which should give you some idea as to their display. How did that occur? A physical and fairly well-regimented Andorran defence which Slovakia can easily double the quality of if they so wish. Slovakia can take some momentum into this game after a fairly unconvincing but useful win against Republic of Macedonia at home last match with a last-gasp winner from Filip Holosko. I can see Slovakia really frustrating Russia here, ultimately, so we should see an under 2.5 goals game here at decent odds.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 3/4.

Belarus vs Romania - home win at 7/5.

I'm a bit concerned that this could become a public bet after Belarus' impressive win at an average France side but I like the odds nonetheless. I've been a fan of Belarus for a while because they play good football, they're very well-organised, and they're not easy to beat as a result. They don't score enough goals in general but they've won back-to-back games away from home without conceding a goal against Lithuania and France respectively so give them some respect here - they've earned it. They've got very good players in this side although the Hleb brothers are unequivocally the heartbeat of the team. If they turn up, Belarus will have a very good chance to make their possession count for something although if they don't then I fear for them.

We must then also consider the descent of Romania. They're still a good side but nowhere near what they used to be. There is intense pressure on coach Lucrescu and the team after some poor displays and that's caused rifts in the camp with captain Christian Chivu openly crying in a press conference about the pressure on who he regards as a very good manager as he believes the Romanian media and fans to be overly harsh when judging him. Chivu, incidentally, returns to the Romania squad for this game, which is a massive boost for them. However, they still have a fundamental lack of quality and it shows. Despite outplaying Albania at home last match, they still ended up drawing the game 1-1 through not taking all of their chances and by allowing defensive lapses. Romania certainly aren't what they were and although I can't deny that they'll certainly relish the counter-attacking game in Minsk today, I don't envision them having much joy against a very good Belarus side.

This should be a close game between two sides that match up quite well. Neither sides score enough goals so the first goal should be pivotal to this encounter and possibly even final depending on how the game progresses. However, the Belarusians have got to be buoyant after a heroic win in France and given the pressure on the Romanian side, I fancy the home win at decent odds.

Verdict: Belarus to win at 7/5.

Hungary vs Moldova - under 2.5 goals at 3/4.

A confident Moldova side facing a low-scoring Hungarian side? Under 2.5 goals all the way for me! Moldova finally managed to break through a stiff Finnish resolve at home last match and won 2-0 so they'll be buoyant ahead of this game. Hungary, however, suffered defeat in Sweden as they yet again failed to convert their chances and yet got caught out with little defensive stability in their side barring the presence of Juhasz. Dzsudzsak and Gera are the problem-causers for Hungary in midfield so if they turn it on then Hungary really could and should win this game despite their obvious problems with goalscoring. However, Moldova aren't the rubbing rags they used to be - they're well-organised defensively although they too lack in the firepower department. Four out of Moldova's last five games have gone under 2.5 goals and that's no coincidence as the experience of the likes of Frunza and Epureanu make this squad a lot more solid and dependable. Moldova won't be easy to beat here and given Hungary's lack of firepower, I think there's a very real chance of this game going under 2.5 goals today.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 3/4.

Czech Republic vs Lithuania - home win with -1.5 handicap at 10/11.

I don't think I need to explain to any of you why I think Czech Republic will win this game but what I do need to explain is why I think they'll beat the handicap as those of you who follow my blog avidly will know that I don't rate this Czech attack. Why is that? Well, they're really short in the quality department, to be blunt. Ever since giant striker Jan Koller hung up his boots and stopped bailing the Czech Republic out, they've failed to really be a threat in attack. The reason for that is because they lack a talented target man. Milan Baros is good at international level but he's not a target man; he plays off a target man. Tomas Necid is a promising prospect but there's far too much weight on his shoulders at this level for someone who is not yet ready to fulfill his role. Roman Bednar would be the ideal replacement for Koller but he's not been tested at this level on a consistent basis yet so we have a big problem here, really. Fenin is an interesting inclusion as I'm yet to be convinced by him either as he's another one like Necid who is yet to show his full potential. The reliance then falls back onto playmakers Tomas Rosicky and Jaroslav Plasil in midfield because nobody else makes anything happen. Fortunately for Czech Republic, those two are very effective and thus the Czech Republic can meander past lower-ranked opponents like today with some ease atypically. The Czech Republic's defence is unquestionably good with Petr Cech in goal and the likes of Kadlec, Pospech, and Hubschmann in defence so I don't think the hosts will concece today.

I used to rate Lithuania a lot but they've gone downhill in the last couple of years. They're not scoring goals and looking at their side, I can see why. Poskus was never consistent on any stage, Beniusis isn't good enough, which leaves Tomas Danilevicius in attack on his own which will play right into the hands of a solid Czech backline. There's a lot of hard workers in this Baltic side but there's not much talent. There's far too much pressure on pacey wide-men Cesnauskis and Mikoliunas and it damages the squad if they can't play their wide game. There's some good players in the side i.e. new Rubin Kazan signing Arlauskis in goal and defender Stankevicius at Valencia CF but it's not talent in the right area in terms of affecting my bet, although it should be worthwhile noting that the latter has a very long throw in which is always a threat if not defended properly. Semberas is another very good player in the side but again - he only contributes defensively. Therefore, Lithuania have a big problem scoring goals which is why they've scored in just one out of their last five games, which was a home game against Estonia. Their last away game resulted in a 4-0 loss against Ukraine, incidentally.

So what do we have here? A predictable Lithuanian attack in a game where they'll come and defend against a fairly talented and able Czech Republic side that can fashion two or three goals here. Coach Bilek has already stated his intent to attack and win this game by fielding an attractive 4-2-2-2 formation in Olomouc and I think it'll benefit the Czech side because the Lithuanians can only attack down the flanks on the counter-attack and from set pieces. Bluntly, I don't expect a Lithuanian goal in this game but I do expect the hosts to register a couple of times although it may take them some time to break through. The odds aren't great but I expected them to be shorter than they are so my call is the hosts to win with a -1.5 goal handicap at 10/11.

Verdict: Czech Republic to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 10/11.

Republic of Ireland vs Andorra - second-half to contain more goals at 4/5.

I studied this game for a long time to see out value that I just know is somewhere in this game and this is the bet I've finally settled for. Why was I intend to bet on this game? Because as much as I love and respect the Republic of Ireland national team and their untouchable spirit, they simply don't score goals. They did very well indeed to win in Yerevan last match against a good Armenia side, particularly as the hosts outplayed them and could easily have equalised. However, the Irish spirit was untouchable and they won the game so fair play to them. The reason that Andorra have done pretty well in recent games is because of their own spirit and physical game. Well, that's not going to be much use to them here - Ireland will more than match them on that front. The question is where and when will the goals come? As much as I stress that it's important to be aware that Andorra are better defensively nowadays, they still offer little in attack. I therefore expect the Irish side to triumph although the odds on that occurring offer little value, as does the handicap for a fairly impotent side. The bet I do like is for the second-half to have more goals than the first-half. Why? Well, Andorra are going to have to battle very hard here and believe me, there isn't a harder battling side than the Irish. I think the hosts are really going to push the visitors in this game and we should see the minnows tire a lot more in the second-half as a result, particularly as none of the Andorran team play in a big league, to my knowledge, and thus their players aren't as well-equipped as the Irish are in terms of stamina. I was tempted to call a risky half-time draw/full-time Ireland win here but the Irish could sneak a goal in the first-half. Either way, I believe we'll see more second-half goals than first-half goals because of the above information so taking that option at 4/5 should prove to be a good bet today.

Verdict: More goals in the second-half at 4/5.

Italy vs Faroe Islands - away win with +3.5 goal handicap at 3/4.

I was initially disappointing by Faroe Islands' poor showing at home to Serbia in their last game but it's since been brought to my attention the cheating method in which it occurred with the Serbians scoring their first-goal via a blatant handball from Liverpool attacker Milan Jovanovic whilst lying on the ground as he pushed it into the path of Zigic and Lazovic with the latter scoring as a result. It's also worth pointing out that the goal was offside too! I don't think the result was unfair; Serbia were the better side. However, the scoreline flattered the Balkan side and I don't think much should be read into it as a result. Indeed, Brian Kerr has had some bad luck of late, particularly with two late goals conceded in Estonia in their previous international game to lose 2-1 despite leading for the majority of the game. However, this luck has to end sometime and although they may not cause an upset today, I do think they can hold their hosts to at least a respectable scoreline. Why? Italy are a poor, poor side nowadays. Or is that harsh? They simply play in a stagnant league and their football suffers as a result internationally because it's very predictable. I can't deny the class of some of the Italians but their squad is ageing and there are few talents emerging for them to bail the country out. Italy won 2-1 in Estonia last match although how they managed it is beyond me as they were outplayed for the entire game with only controversial Antonio Cassano being able to produce moments of magic to save them. Ineded, that's what it tends to take for Italy to win nowadays - moments of individual magic - and they're running out of players who can do it.

These two sides met twice in 2007, just after Italy won the World Cup, and each time my call today would have been successful with Italy winning 2-1 in the Faroe Islands and winning 3-1 at home. Italy's squad isn't as good now as it was then but worryingly for the hosts, their age-old strength of being good at the back is starting to evade them as they've now played seven consecutive games in all competitions without keeping a clean sheet. They've faced the likes of New Zealand, Estonia, and Switzerland during that run so they've not exactly faced giants in each game. Faroe Islands are no mugs anymore; they're well-organised enough to keep the scoreline respectable and maybe even steal a cheeky draw. However, the staggering statistic here is that this bet would have won the game for the away side for every home game for Italy since Italy beat Azerbaijan 4-0 in 2003. They've played the Faroe Islands, Scotland, Georgia, Moldova, Republic of Ireland etc. along the way and whereas I can't say that the Faroese are as good as any of those sides (barring themselves, obviously!), I can say that they'll be very hard to beat. I simply can't see Italy walking away with this one so I really fancy giving the Faroese a +3.5 goal head start today.

Verdict: Faroe Islands to win with +3.5 goal handicap at 3/4.

Bosnia-Herzegovina vs France - home win at 31/20.

Bosnia bring good momentum into this game following a 3-0 thrashing of Luxembourg away from home in their last game. On paper, this is hardly a condemning scoreline but considering that the hosts had got a lot better in recent times and that Bosnia don't travel too well, the scoreline impressed me rather a lot, to be honest. The fact is that Bosnia are rapidly becoming a very able side. Let's not forget that only lady luck steered Portugal through to the World Cup ahead of them last year in the play-offs with Bosnia playing very well against their Iberian opponents in both legs and unusually, the Balkan side didn't take their chances. In Sarajevo, that isn't a problem that they often encounter with Portugal the only side to travel here and leave with a clean sheet since 2007.  Whereas Bosnia's defence is questionable, their goalscoring record is most certainly not with talented playmaker Misimovic and target man Dzeko in attack, not to mention pacey Muslimovic and midfield prospect Pjanic. There's a lot of pace, creativity, and determination in this Bosnia side and that makes them one of the last sides that a weak France side wants to face currently so you have to give the hosts their chances here. There's no Evra or Toulalan or Anelka for the French for obvious reasons but this only increases their inability to beat sides nowadays with each of those players playing a key role in the French side atypically. The French were weak, devoid of ideas, and susceptible at the back in their last match at home to Belarus, which ended in defeat, so I really don't fancy them here. Confidence is low and it showed in a recent trip to Norway where they took the lead and still managed to lose. They're not the force they once were; I really don't fancy them here as a result.

Interestingly enough, France manager Laurent Blanc has already admitted that his side's chances of winning in Sarajevo are slim and Bosnia's manager Susic has boldly stated that he wouldn't take a draw if it was offered to him pre-match. Whether this is mind games or not, I don't know, but I really fancy Bosnia to pile further misery on a fairly uninteresting and predictable France side.

Verdict: Bosnia-Herzegovina to win at 31/20.

Scotland vs Liechtenstein - away win with +2.5 goal handicap at 4/5.

This is probably one of the bolder calls of the day and I don't wish to offend any of our loyal Scottish punters but the odds are too good to resist. Scotland at home are a nightmare to play against for big sides because of the passionate support and tenacious players but they're sadly lacking in quality in all areas of the park, realistically. Their in-your-face displays irritate the big boys but Liechtenstein will simply give it right back. They're not the shit side they once were; they can defend to a certain degree now and even steal goals, as they did at Iceland in their last away match in an unexpected 1-1 draw. Scotland played out a rather dour 0-0 draw in Lithuania last match against a semi-decent opponent without impressing me particularly with their creativity but nonetheless playing at home is always different to playing away. Scotland still haven't scored more than twice in a home game since 2007 and even then this bet today would have won with the result being 3-1. Some of Scotland's opponents have been very hard but some haven't so although I don't doubt the effort of the hosts, I do doubt their incisiveness and I honestly fancy Liechtenstein to nick a goal here. For me, giving the visitors a +2.5 goal head start is very intriguing today - very intriguing indeed!

Verdict: Liechtenstein to win with a +2.5 goal handicap at 4/5.

Estonia vs Uzbekistan - home win at 10/11.

Estonia have witnessed opposite ends of the luck table in their last two games with two late goals at home to Faroe Islands turning a 1-0 loss into a 2-1 win in the space of minutes and yet despite dominating against giants Italy in their last match, they still threw a lead away and lost 2-1. One thing is for sure, however - Estonia are a very solid side at home and play well there. They lack the incision to be backed against good sides here on a regular basis but I don't see them losing games like this - all they need to do is take their chances. Unlike some of our viewers, I rate Uzbekistan quite highly but that respect is restricted to football within Asia. Outside of Asia, they look vulnerable and predictable. They lost 3-1 in Armenia and 1-0 in Albania on their last two trips to Europe (although Armenia technically isn't in Europe...!) as they found the European style far too hard to deal with. In Asia, Uzbekistan are the type of side to hold a 1-0 lead and that's about it. In Europe, they concede far too easily and they're not the kind of side who can come from behind to take anything so I really fancy Estonia to make life uncomfortable for them today. This is a friendly so do approach with caution but the odds on an Estonia win seem far too generous for me given the Uzbeks' inability to play against European opposition.

Verdict: Estonia to win at 10/11.

Ukraine vs Chile - away win at 5/2.

I really, really like this bet. I'd like it a lot more if the game was in Donetsk at the Donbass Arena rather than in Kiev but I still like it nonetheless. Ukraine are currently without a manager (again!) and are playing like it too. They deserved to lose in Poland a few days ago despite the hosts having not played a good game of football for some time and only a last-gasp equaliser bailed the Ukrainians out. Their players don't look strong or confident anymore, neither physically nor mentally, so I really don't rate them at the moment. Their players are either too old and predictable or too young and ineffective. Only Aliev and Milevskiy present a different style for the Ukrainians but I don't think that will be enough to save them. Bielsa's Chile is young, confident, vibrant, and determined. They impressed me immensely during the World Cup with their fearless nature and capable players and although they lack in front of goal sometimes, their pace and ability is unquestionable. These two sides present a real contrast in footballing styles and at the present time, I can only see one winner here. However, we must bear in mind that Chile have taken a largely inexperienced squad here with few names, the most notable of which is experienced midfielder Rodrigo Tello. Nonetheless, the styles are still contrasting and with Bielsa very able to get the best out of his players with his relentless attacking style, I think these promising youngsters have a very good chance to cause a surprise in Ukraine today, although this should be a very interesting game and should be approached with caution!

Verdict: Chile to win at 5/2.

Argentina vs Spain - away win at 8/5.

All of you need little introduction to this game, I'm sure, so I won't waste my time! Both sides are likely to play A/B teams because of their respective club committments but even so - I fancy Spain's "B" team a lot more than Argentina's. The hosts are very strong at home, particularly at the Liberti, but this isn't the old Argentina side. They're abysmal in defence and although their attack is good, they're simply facing a better side than themselves. They're not well-organised enough to win this game, in my opinion. I do think the hosts can and probably will score against a dubious Spanish defence but the Spanish side is simply better with possession and at taking their chances. I don't care who Del Bosque fields - backing Spain to beat anyone at 8/5 with a second string still appeals to me. They're a very good side and have the ball a lot more than any of their opponents so a Spanish win is never out of the question. They don't tend to fare too well against fellow hispanic sides, unfortunately, so do be careful with this selection. However, the world champions are simply better than Argentina, in my opinion, so I'm on the away win today.

Verdict: Spain to win at 8/5.

Guarani Asuncion vs Union San Felipe - home win at 3/4.

My eyebrows were raised a day or two ago when I read that Guarani Asuncion sold striking prospect Federico Santander to Ligue 1 Toulouse as a replacement for Gignac. He's barely played for Guarani so why Toulouse think he's the next one for them is beyond me. Still, that's there decision to make and I'll leave them to it.

It still doesn't explain why Guarani are as long as they are here, however. The hosts have played two consecutive seasons on the continent and have a decent level of experience as a result. They're part-way into their domestic campaign and have already competed in the Copa Sudamericana this year by overcoming Uruguay's River Plate Montevideo 4-4 (away goals), winning the home leg 2-0. Paraguay isn't a particular stronghold for home sides as there isn't much of a home advantage here to be had - well, not geographically at least. They still produce good sides, however, and Guarani are one of those sides. Guarani's success largely hinges upon Brazilian star striker Rodrigo Teixeira bringing home the money, which he usually does and should do tonight. He's proven to be a shrewd signing from Ecuadorian outfit Deportivo Cuenca and will be pivotal in their push for success tonight. Midfielders Caceres and Ortiz also provide a solid backbone in the middle of the park and will also be essential tonight. However, Guarani's team would be little without their key back five - Aurrecochea in goal and the four defenders of Carballo, Filippini, Marecos, and Benitez - so these players must feature tonight for Guarani to achieve maximum success, in my opinion.

However, the inability and the inexperience of their opponents should help them a lot too. Union San Felipe have never played continental football before and this will not be the most welcoming of games for them as a result. It's only San Felipe's defence that got them where they are as they're really not a great goalscoring side. Typically, the majority of their strikeforce are Argentinian with the likes of Meza and Dominguez starting more often than not. None of their players are prolific in front of goal, however, and whereas they can get away with it in Chile, I doubt they'll experience similar joy on the continent. Midfielder Carvajal is a real prospect for them and is absolutely quintessential for this side to do anything against anyone but there's precious few others who can change the game like he can. For me, this is not a side capable of playing in the Copa Sudamericana and whereas I don't think we'll see them collapse and die as a result of the above, I do think they'll be outplayed and outscored ultimately.

For me, Guarani should be 1/2 here. Union San Felipe aren't used to this type of game and don't look to have the goals in them to make it count tonight. The Sudamericana is a crazy competition sometimes so nothing is certain but odds of 3/4 on a Guarani win here look very welcome indeed to me.

Verdict: Guarani Asuncion to win at 3/4.

Accumulator fodder:

Sweden, Czech Republic, Denmark, Netherlands, Croatia, Germany, Republic of Ireland, Japan, England U21, France U21, Finland U21, Belarus U21.

Recommended bets:

Netherlands -1.5, Sweden -2.5, and Germany -2.5 at evens.

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today's games, see below!

UEFA European Championship Qualifiers:

Russia vs Slovakia (7) under 2.5 goals
Georgia vs Israel (5) 1-1
Belarus vs Romania (7) 1-0
Malta vs Latvia (5) under 2.5 goals
Bulgaria vs Montenegro (6) over 2.5 goals
Sweden vs San Marino (10) -2.5 handicap
Hungary vs Moldova (7) under 2.5 goals
Turkey vs Belgium (5) 2-1
Republic of Macedonia vs Armenia (5) 1-0
Czech Republic vs Lithuania (8) -1.5 handicap
Albania vs Luxembourg (7) 2-0
Denmark vs Iceland (8) 2-0
Netherlands vs Finland (8) -1.5 handicap
Austria vs Kazakhstan (6) 1-0
Serbia vs Slovenia (7) 2-1
Croatia vs Greece (8) 2-0
Norway vs Portugal (5) 1-1
Germany vs Azerbaijan (10) -2.5 handicap
Republic of Ireland vs Andorra (8) -1.5 handicap
Switzerland vs England (6) under 2.5 goals
Italy vs Faroe Islands (6) 2-0
Scotland vs Liechtenstein (7) 2-1
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs France (6) 2-1

International Friendlies:

Canada vs Honduras (5) 1-2
Japan vs Guatemala (8) 2-0
South Korea vs Iran (6) 1-1
Cyprus vs Qatar (7) 2-0
United Arab Emirates vs Kuwait (6) 2-0
Poland vs Australia (7) 1-1
Estonia vs Uzbekistan (6) 2-1
Yemen vs Syria (5) 0-0
Burkina Faso vs Gabon (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Bahrain vs Togo (7) 1-1
Qatar vs Oman (7) 2-0
Jamaica vs Peru (6) 1-2
Mexico vs Colombia (7) 2-1
China vs Paraguay (6) 0-1
Ukraine vs Chile (5) 1-2
Argentina vs Spain (6) 1-2
Panama vs Trinidad & Tobago (7) 2-1
Venezuela vs Ecuador (5) 1-1

UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:

Latvia vs Moldova (6) under 2.5 goals
Georgia vs Armenia (6) over 2.5 goals
England vs Lithuania (8) 2-0
Portugal vs Republic of Macedonia (8) over 2.5 goals
Scotland vs Austria (5) 1-2, draw no bet
Russia vs Romania (6) 2-1
Italy vs Wales (5) 1-1
Hungary vs Bosnia-Herzegovina (6) 1-1
Poland vs Spain (7) 1-2
Germany vs Northern Ireland (7) both sides to score
Czech Republic vs Iceland (6) 2-1
Slovakia vs Norway (6) 2-1
France vs Malta (8) 2-0
Turkey vs Republic of Ireland (6) 1-1
Finland vs Liechtenstein (8) 2-0
Israel vs Montenegro (6) 2-1
Buglaria vs Sweden (5) 1-1
Cyprus vs Serbia (5) 1-1
Ukraine vs Slovenia (7) 2-0
Belarus vs Azerbaijan (9) -1.5 handicap

Copa Sudamericana:

Guarani Asuncion vs Union San Felipe (7) 2-0
Atletico Huila vs San Jose (7) 2-1

Singaporean S-League:

Young Lions vs Beijing Guoan (6) 2-1

Uruguayan Primera Division:

Defensor Sporting vs Cerro (4) 1-1

Enjoy your free betting tips!

Monday's Picks

For my thoughts on the few games that are being played today, see below!

Dutch Eerste Divisie:

AGOVV Appeldoorn vs Eindhoven (5)

Singaporean S-League:

Home United vs Sengkang Punggol (8) 2-1
Geylang United vs Woodlands Wellington (6) 1-0

Enjoy your free betting tips!

Roskilde have already lost four out of their first five games, drawing the other encounter. Admittedly, only one of those games was at home but they've already lost to two sides this season that they arguably shouldn't be losing to if they intend to prove that they have the quality to stay in this division. Roskilde managed a credible 2-2 draw at potent Skive last match but they'll need a lot more than that to shatter a very good AB Copenhagen today. Roskilde have played AB Copenhagen five times since gaining promotion to this division a couple of years ago and they've lost every occasion, twice at home and thrice away from home. Roskilde tend to give AB Copenhagen a good game as they're a pretty potent side themselves but their weak defence is almost always shattered by the better sides in the division and AB Copenhagen are certainly one of them.

Only eventually-promoted AC Horsens won more away games than AB Copenhagen last season, which should be testament to how good today's visitors actually are. It's a mystery as to why they're still yet to be promoted but it's surely only a matter of time. The reason AB do so well on the road is an obvious one; they simply outscore their opponents. The departure of promising youngster Nicolai Jorgensen over the summer to German giants Bayer 04 Leverkusen looked set to disrupt the title contenders but the introduction of Kim Christensen has bolstered their attack, leaving them not only with their new signing but also fairly experienced campaigner Nick Christensen and emerging youngster Benjamin Lee so AB aren't short on goalscorers. The aspect of the game known as "defending" continues to elude this promising side due to their attacking tactics but I really don't see that hindering them in a division where they're one of the best sides in it. AB haven't started their campaign too well but their quality is still convincing. Bizarrely, they've yet to win a home game in two attempts as they've drawn twice. However, equally as bizarrely, they've won both of their two away games despite one of those games being a tricky tie with Fredericia. One thing that AB always bring to their games is goals, however, and that always makes them a potent threat in games against inferior opponents, naturally.

I'm surprised the bookies have been so lenient here with the odds, really. Generally, you'll find AB at 1/3 for home wins in this division against the majority of their opponents and that's merited more often than not - there's a big quality gap in this division between the likes of AB, AGF etc. and the rest. Roskilde are notorious relegation-battlers and that doesn't look set to change today. I expect an attacking game from both sides as neither knows how to defend so we should see a lot of goals here. However, for me, the away win is too generously priced so that's my call here.

Verdict: AB Copenhagen to win at 23/20.

Sunday's Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Ethiopia vs Guinea - away win at evens.

The bookies are usually spot-on with their odds on the African Nations Qualifiers which is why I rarely find any value there. However, unless I'm missing something massive here, this looks a real steal. Ethiopia are a very poor footballing side. They have no big names, no experience, and simply don't play good football. They're hosting a Guinea side that is not only very talented but very experienced too. With the likes of Ismael Bangoura, Souleymane Youla, Kamil Zayatte, Pascal Feindouno, and Ibrahim Yattara in their ranks, I'd honestly fancy Guinea against most sides in Africa. There's some tremendous players in this squad in both defence and attack and I can't see them doing anything but winning this game against their poor hosts with ease. Why Guinea are at evens and not 2/5 for this game is beyond me! 

Verdict: Guinea to win at evens.

Velez Sarsfield vs River Plate - home win at evens.

This game is one of many Buenos Aires derbies throughout the Primera Division campaign and although it's not the main one for either club, it's still a very big affair. It's hard to read too much into statistics because of the above information but what is factual is that Velez are currently the best side in Argentina. River Plate used to be one of the top dogs in Argentina too but along with bitter rivals Boca Juniors, they've slipped down the pecking order in Argentinian football in recent years. However, River won't simply lie down for this game - they want their crown(s) back - so they'll feel a particularly strong level of hatred for usurpers Velez today and thus I expect the very real derby feel for this game.

Three wins in four games says that Velez are the title threat that they were expected to be pre-Apertura. Only Boca Juniors shattered their stiff resolve and that was thanks to an inspirational home display and you know what Boca are like when La Bombonera is rocking! It's not a bad record at all, to be blunt, and you can see how seriously Velez are taking this game today as they rested players mid-week for the Copa Sudamericana First Leg at home to Banfield, namely star striker Silva, Argentina international defender Otameni, and key playmaker Moralez, although both came on in the second-half to give Velez a bit of life. The Apertura crown means more to Velez than the Sudamericana and for obvious reasons too as that gives them a passage to the Libertadores, which is held in much higher regard than the Sudamericana. Therefore, expect a full-blooded and determined show from the hosts tonight.

River Plate aren't what they were but they've impressed me en mass this season by starting to recapture some of their old form. However, they were beyond disappointing in their last away game against Argentinos Juniors and could have lost if their hosts were able to score a goal once in a while. They were quite poor in their other away game this season but somehow ground out a 1-0 win at Huracan. Veteran playmaker Ortega is looking as good as ever and little Buonanotte is gradually beginning to fufill his potential. River will be pleased to have given new striker Pavone some game time at Argentinos last match because although emerging striker Mori is scoring goals for them, they still lack a proper target man and he fits the bill perfectly. When he's in the team week in, week out, then you'll see a proper River Plate side. However, that time isn't yet so I fear for them tonight as I don't see where the goals are coming from.

Velez won this fixture 3-1 last time around and with the quality balance having shifted very little since then, a similar scoreline wouldn't surprise me. Don't wade heavily into this one as it's not only a derby but two ex-River players (Zapata and Fernandez) could feature for Velez and ex-Velez striker (Caruso) could feature for River Plate so cards are not unexpected here! Nonetheless, the home win still looks decent value to me although I'd leave it if the odds drop below evens.

Verdict: Velez Sarsfield to win at evens.

Guarani vs Fluminense - away win at 5/4.

Guarani are a good enough home side in Serie A so I can understand the odds on the away win today although I don't agree with them. They've only lost here once this season and that was 3-0 against a rampant Internacional. They've drawn four times and won four times aside from that so counter-attacking Guarani tend to keep it tight at the back and take their chances when given them. Guarani's strength in defence is what keeps them in the division as they seemingly believe that goalscoring was a thing of the past that would never take off. Guarani have a ceiling with their ability, however, and that's visible by the fact that when they've hosted Palmeiras, Internacional, Sao Paulo, and Cruzeiro, they've failed to beat all of them. I can't accept Guarani trying to attack in this game - they're going to defend here and that could be fatal tonight.

Why? Well, Fluminense have some  very gifted passers of the ball i.e. Deco and they've got some bloody good goalscorers too i.e. Emerson, Washington, and Fred, although Fred has been out of the side since July with injury and misses this game despite returning to training lately. Fluminense's line-up is reportedly Fernando Henrique, Mariano, Gum, Julio Cesar, Andre Luis, Valencia, Fernando, Conca, Deco, Washington, and Emerson. The return of Valencia is a big boost for Fluminense and in my eyes, the named squad above is more than good enough to win this game. You can look at Fluminense's recent form of late and point out that they've drawn three out of their last four games, which is quite accurate! However, consider that one of those was a derby with Vasco da Gama and the two others were against Sao Paulo (in which they still played better in but lost their lead due to goalkeeping errors and missed a late penalty too) and Palmeiras (due to a last minute equaliser from Ewerton) so they've been a bit unlucky of late, really. Their quality hasn't suffered and they still bring a strong side into this game so I fancy them to win this game today at decent odds of 5/4.

Verdict: Fluminense to win at 5/4.

Avai vs Atletico Paranaense - home win at 3/4.

Avai haven't been at their best lately but I attribute that to their continental committments and thus stretched squad rather than a decline in ability. Avai are generally a very robust and determined side with plenty of goals in them, especially at home, and that's the Avai that I expect to turn up tonight. They've already won five out of nine at home this season with just two defeats along the way because they average scoring over two goals per home game, thus allowing us to generally overlook their defensive ineptitude. No Serie A side has scored more home goals than Avai and only giants Corinthians can match their daunting goalscoring tally so I do have a lot of respect for the hosts tonight. Only one out of Avai's last four defeats in their last five games has been a Serie A home game so I'm not reading much into their recent down-trend in form as they don't travel well and they've had committments elsewhere. I'm expecting little Avai to be back in business tonight though and let's face it - they're generously priced against an Atletico Paranaense side that has already lost seven out of nine away games in Serie A this season. I have respect for Atletico too, particularly after a run of four games without defeat, but the fact remains that any kind of decent side playing at home has a very good chance of beating Atletico because they don't score enough goals away from home. Despite being eighth in the Serie A table, nobody else in the division has lost as many away games as Atletico and that includes the sides currently in the relegation zone! The fact that they average conceding two goals per away game and that they have lost both meetings with Avai since Avai were promoted should fill the visitors with fear tonight, especially given how potent their hosts are. For me, Avai are too generously priced here to be ignored so my call is the home win.

Verdict: Avai to win at 3/4.

Envigado vs Real Cartagena - away win at 13/10.

If this bet comes in then make sure you have your lottery tickets to hand because I can't remember the last time I won a bet in Colombia on an away win - it's rather unheard of! However, the fact that Envigado have lost all seven Primera A games so far this season and the fact that Real Cartagena are a top six side is enough to convince me that they've got a chance here, even by Colombian standards! Envigado aren't terrible defensively - they're usually quite hard to break down - but they offer next to nothing in front of goal which is why everyone keeps betting them. They've already lost three home games and this really should be their fourth as Real Cartagena's sluggish start has started to gather momentum with no defeats in four consecutive Primera A games, winning at America de Cali and claiming a respectable 1-1 draw with giants Independiente Medellin in their last two away games. Real Cartagena, to be blunt, are starting to show their potential and as they're a good side anyway, I fancy them tonight.

Please don't view this as a dead cert purely by orgasming over the Primera A league table - Colombian football doesn't work like that more often than not. Most sides in this division can beat each other on their respective days but in this instance, the chances of the home side losing are good and the chances of the away win putting up a good show are good so it's worth a punt here.

Verdict: Real Cartagena to win at 13/10.

HJK II vs RoPS Rovaniemi - lay RoPS Rovaniemi at 23/20.

It's been coming for a long time but I'm finally going to lay RoPS Rovaniemi outright because I can't sit by and watch them keep failing to win anymore without attempting to profit from it. We had some joy last week when RoPS somehow lost against relegation favourites MP Mikkeli, which takes their run to six conecutive games without a win. They've drawn five of those games and have failed to score in four of them so RoPS' problems are very apparent at the moment, although they're also very confusing as they're not missing any key players, to my knowledge. RoPS are by far the best side in the Ykkonen but they're not playing well at all so I don't see them winning today. It aids my cause that HJK II not only need the points to stave off the threat of relegation but that they've drawn two consecutive games to give them some momentum to take into this game (and end their barren form!) and also that they've only lost three out of ten home games this season. Interestingly enough, HJK II were the first side in seven Ykkonen  games this season to take points off RoPS Rovaniemi in a 1-1 draw in the far north of Finland. That was when RoPS were in-form; now that they're struggling, I don't see a RoPS win here.

Approach this one with caution as RoPS really are the best side in the Ykkonen by a long way but there's too much value in laying them today for me to ignore.

Verdict: Lay RoPS Rovaniemi at 23/20.

Varese vs Empoli - home win at 21/20.

I've sat back and observed Varese for two weeks now to see if that was suspected regarding this side turned out to be true and it has become so. Varese were tipped as being the surprise package this year following promotion from Serie C and a win at Torino and a draw at home to promotion favourites Atalanta Bergamo in their first two games has convinced me that they're very capable of doing exactly what Cesena did last year. As I've mentioned previously, the gap in quality between Italian divisions is generally very small which is why promoted clubs tend to do well and Varese are no exception to that ruling. Varese are very much a united front and have few stars but function extremely well as a unit and rarely concede as a result so don't write the hosts off this season.

I was waiting for the right time to back Varese if their form continued and now I have one as they face Empoli. You all know how good Empoli generally are if you follow Serie B but their form is generally restricted to being superb at home. Away from home, Empoli really struggle as their horrific record of fourteen defeats in twenty-one away games last season indicates all too well. The only side that lost more games than Empoli away from home last season was eventually-relegated Salernitana so Empoli have a lot to do to prove their promotion aspirations are nothing more than dreams based upon their past. Empoli's problem last season was defending - they conceded over two goals per away game on average and given that they didn't manage to average scoring a goal per away game, it's easy to see where they went wrong. Empoli still have a presentable side and aren't easy to beat but their success hinges on their strike duo of Coralli and Eder, who were responsible for forty-four out of Empoli's sixty-six goals in Serie B last season. However, Brazilian striker Eder has been sold to Brescia so what on earth are Empoli going to do this season? Not a lot in my eyes. Coralli is still a threat but without Eder and without a defence, I really don't rate this Empoli side. They've won at Frosinone already this season in a free-for-all attacking display from both sides but at the first hurdle of facing a tactical game, Empoli failed to produce the goods, drawing a blank against newly-promoted Pescara in a 0-0 draw at home. If they can't win at home, they're not going to be a threat away so contrary to what the size and stature of both clubs might have you thinking, I think that the odds are quite fair today.

Although there is obviously risk here given that Empoli still do have some good players, I don't rate their attack without Eder and I really don't rate their defence so an organised Varese could and should really take advantage of their more illustrious opponents today.

Verdict: Vareset to win at 21/20.

Gombak United vs Armed Forces - home win at 17/10.

I can't quite work out why physical Gombak United are priced so long to beat a massively out-of-sorts Armed Forces side today but the odds are far too good to pass up on. Gombak have already won eight out of twelve home games in the S-League this season and only Etoile and Home United can better that record. They've won those eight games through clinical finishing and well-marshalled defending, conceding an average of a goal per every two home games, a record which only Etoile can better currently. Gombak also have a terrific home record against Armed Forces in recent times with three consecutive home wins. In fact, Gombak won at Armed Forces earlier this season, which shows the descent of Armed Forces from the top of Singaporean football. Gombak's recent form isn't outstanding but their well-organised displays really should see them beat a vastly unorganised and leaky Armed Forces side. Armed Forces average conceding over a goal per away game and with four defeats in their last five games whilst conceding twelve goals, I don't fancy their chances today. Armed Forces always have that threat of scoring goals but Duric's departure in attack has clearly impacted them and they don't possess the same threat anymore, in my opinion. They've failed to score in three out of their last five games and it's going to take more than an unconvincing win at home to Sengkang Punggol to convince me that they're anywhere near back to their best so my call is the home win today at surprisingly generous odds.

Verdict: Gombak United to win at 17/10.

Barcelona II vs Deportivo Xerez - home win at 6/5.

Barcelona II stated their intent in the Segunda Liga by winning their opening game at Celta de Vigo following a convincing display and have had a nice long rest since that game as Spanish rules mean that they can't compete in the Copa del Rey for obvious reasons. Recently-relegated Deportivo Xerez competed mid-week, however, facing the tough trip to Gimnasic de Tarragona and impressively winning. However, the trip to Barcelona is their third game in seven days and given that Xerez were relegated from the Primera Liga due to no strength in-depth, I'd be surprised to see them get anything from a trip to face a very talented and determined Barcelona II side. Barcelona II is a combination of a few players yet to make the Barcelona grade and some that yet might (i.e. Giovani Dos Santos' brother Jonathan Dos Santos) so there's always a hunger in the Barcelona II side, which is good as there's zero motivation for them whatsoever to win this league as promotion is in fact an impossibility for Barcelona II. I half-expected Xerez to put up a good show in the Segunda Liga following relegation as they're a battling side but 4-1 humbling at home against Cartagena in their opening Segunda Liga game demonstrated how poorly-prepared they are for this division so they should be in for a rough ride today. Perhaps it was naive of me to expect more from Xerez given that they lost midfielders Armanteros (Rayo Vallecano de Madrid), Carlos Calvo (Granada), Keita (Racing Club Lens), Garcia (Granada), and Orellana (Granada), not to mention defenders Malia (Racing Santander), Gioda (Quilmes), and goalkeeper Renan (Internacional) but I still fancied Xerez's battling spirit to prevail. However, they're really struggling and tough target man Martin Bermejo will be massively instrumental if Xerez are to get anything out of this season. I think the trip to a feisty Barcelona II side is a bridge too far for them at the moment though so my call is a home win for newly-promoted Barcelona II today.

Verdict: Barcelona II to win at 6/5.

Accumulator fodder:

Benin, Nigeria, Egypt, Ghana, AGF Aarhus, Sarpsborg 08.

Recommended bets:

Guinea, Benin, Egypt, and Nigeria at 2/1.

Avai and Fluminense at 3/1.

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today's games, see below!

African Nations Qualifiers:

Liberia vs Zimbabwe (6) 0-1
Mozambique vs Libya (7) 2-0
Democratic Republic of Congo vs Senegal (6) 1-1
Swaziland vs Ghana (8) 1-2
Nigeria vs Madagascar (8) -1.5 handicap
Ethiopia vs Guinea (7) 0-2
Benin vs Burundi (8) 2-0
Egypt vs Sierra Leone (8) over 2.5 goals

International Friendlies:

Jamaica vs Costa Rica (6) 2-2

Argentinian Primera Division:

Quilmes vs Huracan (6) 1-1
Gimnasia De La Plata vs Atletico Lanus (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Banfield vs Tigre (6) 1-0
Velez Sarsfield vs River Plate (7) 2-1

Australian A-League:

Newcastle Jets vs Brisbane Roar (4) under 2.5 goals
Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix (5) 1-1

Brazilian Serie A:

Avai vs Atletico Paranaense (7) over 2.5 goals
Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro (5) 1-1
Guarani vs Fluminense (7) 1-2
Flamengo vs Santos (6) under 2.5 goals
Atletico Mineiro vs Sao Paulo (6) 2-1
Atletico Goianiense vs Vitoria (4) over 2.5 goals
Internacional vs Gremio Prudente (6) under 2.5 goals

Chilean Primera Division:

Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile (5) 1-1
Union Espanola vs Everton (5) 2-1

Colombian Primera A:

Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Independiente Medellin (5) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Deportes Quindio vs Cucuta Deportivo (5) 0-0
Deportivo Cali vs Once Caldas Manizales (6) 2-2
Deportivo Pereira vs Cortulua (6) 1-1
Envigado vs Real Cartagena (6) 0-1
Millonarios Bogota vs Atletico Huila (7) 1-1

Danish 1st Division:

Hvidovre vs Fyn (4) draw no bet
Vestjaelland vs Skive (6) both sides to score, over 3.5 goals
Roskilde vs AB Copenhagen (8)
Vejle vs Hjorring (6)
Kolding vs AGF Aarhus (8)

English League One:

Brentford vs Sheffield Wednesday (6)

Finnish Ykkonen:

HJK II vs RoPS Rovaniemi (5)

Italian Serie B:

Modena vs Padova (6)
Ascoli vs Albinoleffe (5)
Atalanta Bergamo vs Frosinone (8)
Cittadella vs Novara (6)
Grosseto vs Vicenza (6)
Portosummaga vs Sassuolo (6)
Reggina vs Piacenza (5)
Triestina vs Pescara (7)
Varese vs Empoli (6)
Livorno vs Siena (5)

Mexican Primera Division:

Guadalajara vs Estudiantes Tecos (6) 1-0

Norwegian Divisjon 1:

Strommen vs Ranheim (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Nybergsund vs Alta (6)
Sarpsborg 08 vs Bryne (8)
Tromsdalen vs Sandnes Ulf (5)

Paraguayan Division Profesional:

Sportivo Trinidense vs Tacuary (6) 1-1
Sol de America vs Sport Colombia (7) 2-0
Sportivo Luqueno vs Olimpia Asuncion (4) 1-0

Polish Liga 1:

Kolejarz Stroze vs Gornik Polkowice (5)

Singaporean S-League:

Gombak United vs Armed Forces (6) over 2.5 goals

Spanish Segunda Liga:

Alcorcon vs Ponferradina (4) draw no bet
Numancia vs Celta de Vigo (5)
Tenerife vs Salamanca (6)
Granada vs Real Valladolid (5) over 2.5 goals
Barcelona II vs Deportivo Xerez (6) over 2.5 goals

Uruguayan Primera Division:

Montevideo Wanderers vs Tacuarembo (6) 1-0
River Plate Montevideo vs Central Espanol (6) 2-1
Liverpool Montevideo vs Racing Club Montevideo (7) over 2.5 goals
Fenix vs Penarol (6) 1-2

Welsh Premier League:

Bala Town vs Haverfordwest County (6) 2-1
Neath Athletic vs Newtown (7) 2-0

Enjoy your free betting tips!

Arsenal de Sarandi aren't generally a side I rate nowadays as they're a bit of a live wire with a general lack of consistency. However, their start to their current campaign totally contradicts what I've just said so I'm happy to ride it for now. Three wins in four games and seven goals scored along the way says that Arsenal are serious about the title this year although I can't say I personally considered them to win this one! Arsenal owe their form largely to ex-River Plate hitman Luciano Leguizamon, who has already scored three goals for Arsenal in this campaign. Ex-Velez Sarsfield target man Mauro Obolo compliments his pacy strike partner well too, not to mention the fact that he's already registered twice this season himself. Two out of Arsenal's last three wins have come on the road, which demonstrates their ability to score goals, not to mention their confidence. They scored two goals in this fixture last season and with minimal pressure on this fairly unimportant side, it's worthwhile to consider their free-flowing football as a rather potent method of finding the net, particularly as their opponents are under massive pressure as the reigning champions.

Visitors Argentinos Juniors have really struggled to cope without their sold key players in the summer, as you'd expect. They lost Canuto to Maccabi Haifa, Coria to Villarreal, Caruzzo to Boca Juniors, Pavlovich to Necaxa, Peric to Olimpia Asuncion, and Sosa to Gaziantepspor. Without Sosa and Pavlovich, I struggle to see where the Argentinos goals are going to come from and that has indeed proved to be their problem this season with no goals scored for three consecutive games. Only midfielder Ortigoza brings a prominent goalscoring record into this campaign for Argentinos and that's simply not enough. I can accept Argentinos losing one half of their strike duo; that's how Argetinian football progresses, after all. However, losing both is a real hammer-blow and you have to feel that they're going to struggle a lot this season. They played well last match at home to giants River Plate but despite that, they still failed to find the net. They've lost back-to-back away games against Velez Sarsfield and Independiente respectively and whereas they're hardly condemning results, the fact is that they're not presenting a goal threat so how can they be taken seriously? Rumours are that ex-River Plate attacker Gustavo Oberman may be injured for this game and his absence virtually removes all attacking potency from this side, in my opinion, so I really don't fancy the reigning champions tonight.

Arsenal de Sarandi are unfashionable and unfancied but let's face it - their football style produces goals, which is largely due to no weight of expectation upon the minnows. They've looked good in recent games too so with Obolo and Leguizamon looking menacing in attack, you have to feel that the hosts will beat their impotent opponents at decent odds of evens.

Verdict: Arsenal de Sarandi to win at evens.

Saturday's Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Ceara vs Vasco da Gama - away win with draw no bet at 6/5.

As expected, Ceara's games under their new manager have started going over 2.5 goals as their new manager feels that the way to prevent their slump in the table is to attack instead of defend. Whereas that's a noble aspiration, it's a very stupid one to take given that Ceara's sole strength is defence. They don't have a powerful attack and that's shown by the number of goals that they score. Admittedly, attacking more will give them more opportunities but in Serie A, if their defence is left exposed, then they'll be horribly burned and that's what is starting to happen. Gone are the days of Ceara "under 2.5 goals", in my opinion - many overs should be coming with their new manager although who knows how long he'll last? He's their third manager already this season and he's not made a good impression on me.

This is a fascinating game for visitors Vasco da Gama as they're managed by Gusmao, who was in charge of Ceara just months ago. Ceara is effectively his side as he got them promoted and moulded them into an unbeatable unit. They've looked incredibly susceptible ever since his departure and it's no surprise that Vasco look stronger than ever under his reign. Interestingly enough, Gusmao is the only manager in the division yet to lose a Serie A game this season and I don't fancy that to change tonight as he knows this Ceara side inside out. Ten consecutive games without defeat says that Vasco have a massive momentum boost here, particularly as five of those were away from home against the likes of Flamengo, Sao Paulo, and Gremio, keeping three clean sheets out of those five games. Vasco generally aren't great away from home so I understand the odds here but they're by far the better of these two sides under talented Gusmao and with him being fully aware of the hosts' strengths and weaknesses, you have to fancy in-form Vasco to take advantage of little Ceara here.

What a story it would be is Gusmao was to coach the first side to win at Ceara this season, especially as he's the predominant reason they haven't lost at home! Given that I don't expect Vasco to concede in this game, I have to fancy the away win with here with good odds of draw no bet as if they get a lead in this game then they really should be able to hold it.

Verdict: Vasco da Gama to win with draw no bet at 6/5.

Deportes Tolima vs Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota - over 2.5 goals at 21/20.

I can't go into this one much more than to say that two of Colombia's most potent sides lock horns here with the hosts largely unable to defend and the visitors rarely travelling well. Tolima average scoring two goals per home game at the moment and have won all three games whilst Independiente have started impressively away from home with two wins and one draw from three away games, which is a virtually unheard of record in Colombia, scoring nearly two goals per game along the way. Two out of the last three games between these two Colombian giants have gone over 2.5 goals and I fancy this one to tonight for the above reasons at generous odds.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 21/20.

Warta Poznan vs Flota Swinoujscie - home win at 7/5.

This is one of four Liga 1 home wins that I like today, bizarrely!

It's one of the riskiest too with Warta not playing to their expectied pre-season potential too. New signing Zbigniew Zakrewski hasn't yet had the desire effect on the team although his quality in this division is unquestionable. Instead, it's ageing warhorse Pitor Reiss who has been dragging Warta along by the scruff of their necks but the partnership between himself and Zakrewski is always threatening to blossom and when it does, I expect some very good Warta displays. I was impressed with Warta's win against giants LKS Lodz although truth be told, Warta were outplayed in the first-half and yet came out in the second-half and laid waste to an abject LKS Lodz. I respect the belief in the side after that game and the unquestionable momentum as a result but still approach this game with caution as Warta are not the finished article yet. Since then, Warta surprisingly lost a Polish Cup game at minnows Olsztyn before winning at relegation-threatened Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski but again, winning tough is the only way to get out of this division and two consecutive Liga 1 wins says that they're beginning to realise that. Their opponents Flota are generally very hard to beat and they've actually done very well this year, winning three out of their opening five games. Even more impressively, Flota have won two out of three away games, which is a bizarre record for a side that rarely travels well. However, I would attribute that to the weakness of relegation-threatened Ostrowiec and Dolcan Zabki respectively rather than some new-found away ability of Flota. I read much more into their defeat at a fairly unrecognisable Sandecja Nowy Sacz as to the real Flota as little has changed in this Flota side that lost eight out of seventeen on the road last season, scoring a paltry twelve goals along the way. Flota are good defensively but don't score enough and I think that even one good half of football from Warta in this game should be enough to see them win it so the home win is my call in this game today.

Verdict: Warta Poznan to win at 7/5.

Gorzow Wielkopolski vs Odra Wodzislaw - home win at 11/10.

I don't like going against recently-relegated Odra as their financial plight appears to be galvanising their side rather than dismantling it. Nonetheless, it's factual to point out that Odra have put in some rather poor displays on the road this season and a draw at home to a poor Kluczbork side in their last game showed that reality is starting to hit home as Odra are beginning to struggle. It's got to worry the visitors that Gorzow Wielkopoloski are finally beginning to play to their potential by finding the net on a much more consistent basis with eight goals scored in five games. Gorzow are the traditional Liga 1 home side as two wins and one draw at home already this season indicates all too well. They've struggled a little of late themselves but back-to-back away wins both in the Polish Cup and the Liga 1 gives Gorzow much-needed momentum ahead of this important game today. Gorzow are relying a little too heavily on Drozdowicz's goals and they need to start contributing more to his tally before their season is ruined. However, for the time being, his goals are enough and they should be today with Drozdowicz having already scored four goals in five games. The difference between these two sides today should be two factors - momentum and finesse, and both favour the hosts, so I call the home win at 11/10 although I expect a real battle between these two today!

Verdict: Gorzow Wielkopolski to win at 11/10.

Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala vs LKS Lodz - home win at 13/10.

Podsbeskidzie have started this season amazingly well with four wins in five games and it's basically because they score a hell of a lot more goals than anyone else. They average scoring three goals per game currently and that record is virtually unheard of in Liga 1. They won 6-1 at Katowice last match and although Katowice really aren't playing well, they're actually a very good side so I was massively impressed with their display in that game, and it's a result which should give them a massive momentum boost today - not that they needed it! I like the way that the hosts spread their goals around the team as it does show that they're more than just one man, which makes them a dangerous opponent in any game, really. They're a tough side to beat at home, Podsbeskidzie, but now that they've added potency to their side, they look a very dangerous side ineded to face. Today's game should show how serious they are or aren't about Liga 1 promotion as they face one of the favourites, LKS Lodz. The visitors are yet to start firing on all cylinders, partially due to some unlucky games and partially due to some abject displays. Either way, this is not the usual LKS Lodz yet as nervy extra-time win at Olimpia Elblag in the Polish Cup and a nervous home win against a poor Gornik Leczna in their last game indicated all too well. They were abysmal in the second-half against Warta Poznan prior to that and that's the game that really turned them around and made their heads drop. They've not really recovered from that and whereas I cannot deny that they're a match for their hosts today in terms of quality, I can only observe how much the momentum favours the hosts and feel that they could spring a surprise today. The odds are generous for a reason here so be wary but I do fancy the home win ultimately.

Verdict: Podsbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala to win at 13/10.

Ruch Radzionkow vs Nieciecza - home win at 21/20.

Both of these two sides are expected to be amongst the relegation battlers this season and understandably so with both sides having only just achieved Liga 1 status. However, only one of the to sides have demonstrated any kind of ability in this division and that's hosts Ruch. Both sides have basically been destroyed away from home, as you'd expect, but the ability to stay in this division is drawn from the strength of your home displays and although both sides know that, only Ruch have actioned it. Ruch's big problem is not scoring enough as their defence is generally rather reliable with no side able to penetrate them at will so far. If they get a goal, however, they're usually good for the win. Visitors Niecieza really look in trouble, however. They simply cannot defend and although they register the odd goal, it's generally no use if you concede a lot more than you score! They've lost four consecutive games and have conceded ten goals along the way. They've failed to score in two out of their three away games so far and although I'm sure they'll fight Ruch tooth and nail, the hosts simply look more composed and frankly better than the visitors. Although this is far from a dead cert, I still think Ruch are a tad too generously priced here so my call is the home win.

Verdict: Ruch Radzionkow to win at 21/20.

Accumulator fodder:

Zambia, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Corinthians, HB Koge, Partizan Belgrade, Tampines Rovers.

Recommended bets:

Again, I don't like any multiples today - sorry guys!

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today's games, see below!

African Nations Qualifiers:

Cape Verde Islands vs Mali (4) 1-1
Zambia vs Comoros (9) -1.5 handicap
Mauritius vs Cameroon (8) 1-2
Morocco vs Central African Republic (7) under 2.5 goals
South Africa vs Niger (7) under 2.5 goals
Ivory Coast vs Rwanda (8) -1.5 handicap
Sudan vs Congo (5) 1-1
Uganda vs Angola (7) 1-1
Guinea-Bissau vs Kenya (6) 2-1
Botswana vs Togo (5) 1-0, draw no bet
Tunisia vs Malawi (6) 2-1

UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:

Andorra vs Latvia (7) 0-2
Moldova vs Faroe Islands (4) 1-1
Serbia vs Croatia (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Republic of Macedonia vs Greece (4) over 2.5 goals
Azerbaijan vs Albania (5) 1-2, draw no bet
Turkey vs Georgia (7) over 2.5 goals
Hungary vs Wales (6) 1-1

International Friendlies:

Thailand vs India (7) 2-0
Japan vs Paraguay (7) 1-1
Poland vs Ukraine (6) 0-0
Canada vs Peru (6) 1-1
El Salvador vs Honduras (5) over 2.5 goals
Mexico vs Ecuador (7) over 2.5 goals

Argentinian Primera Division:

All Boys vs Olimpo (5) 2-1
Boca Juniors vs San Lorenzo de Almagro (6) 2-1
Arsenal de Sarandi vs Argentinos Juniors (7) 2-0
Newells Old Boys vs Independiente (6) 1-1

Australian A-League:

Melbourne Heart vs North Queensland Fury (7) 1-1
Sydney FC vs Adelaide United (6) 2-1

Brazilian Serie A:

Botafogo vs Gremio (7) 2-1
Ceara vs Vasco da Gama (6) 0-1, draw no bet
Corinthians vs Goias (8) 2-0

Bulgarian A PFG:

Sliven vs Beroe (6) 1-1
Kaliakra vs Minior Pernik (3) 1-0

Colombian Primera A:

Deportes Tolima vs Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs Boyaca Chico (7) 2-1

Danish 1st Division:

Hobro vs Naestved (6)
Bronshoj vs HB Koge (8)

English League One:

Milton Keynes Dons vs Hartlepool United (5)
Notts County vs Yeovil Town (6)
Oldham Athletic vs Bristol Rovers (6)
 Huddersfield Town vs Bournemouth (7) over 2.5 goals
Southampton vs Rochdale (7)
Tranmere Rovers vs Peterborough United (6)
Exeter City vs Charlton Athletic (7)
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Leyton Orient (5)
Carlisle United vs Swindon Town (6)
Walsall vs Colchester United (5)

English League Two:

Oxford United vs Morecambe (5) draw no bet
Aldershot Town vs Northampton Town (6)
Barnet vs Cheltenham Town (6)
Stevenage vs Crewe Alexandra (4)
Chesterfield vs Lincoln City (7)
Bury vs Gillingham (6)
Accrington Stanley vs Wycombe Wanderers (6)
Macclesfield Town vs Stockport County (5)
Shrewsbury Town vs Rotherham United (6)
Southend United vs Torquay United (4) over 2.5 goals
Bradford City vs Port Vale (5)
Burton Albion vs Hereford United (5) over 2.5 goals

Finnish Ykkonen:

PS Kemi Kings vs TPV Tampere (6) both sides to score
KPV Kokkola vs Viikingit Helsinki (6)
Jippo Joensuu vs KooTeePee Kotka (7) under 2.5 goals
Hameelinna vs FC Espoo (5)

Hungarian Soproni Liga:

Szolnoki MAV vs Szombathelyi Haladas (6) 2-1

Italian Serie B:

Torino vs Crotone (4)

Paraguayan Division Profesional:

Cerro Porteno vs Rubio Nu (7) over 2.5 goals

Polish Liga 1:

Warta Poznan vs Flota Swinoujscie (6)
Sandecja Nowy Sacz vs Dolcan Zabki (7)
Kluczbork vs Katowice (5)
Gorzow Wielkopolski vs Odra Wodzislaw (6)
Ruch Radzionkow vs Nieciecza (6)
Gornik Leczna vs Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski (6)
Kolejarz Stroze vs Gornik Polkowice (6)
Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala vs LKS Lodz (5)

Serbian Super Liga:

Partizan Belgrade vs Hajduk Kula (8) 2-0

Singaporean S-League:

Tampines Rovers vs Young Lions (8) over 2.5 goals

Spanish Segunda Liga:

Cartagena vs Elche (5)
Gimnastic de Tarragona vs Girona (6)
Huesca vs Las Palmas (5)
Villarreal II vs Albacete (6)
Recreativo de Huelva vs Real Bets Balompie (5) draw no bet
Cordoba vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (4)

Uruguayan Primera Division:

Miramar Misiones vs Danubio (5) 1-1
Bella Vista vs Rampla Juniors (6) 1-1
El Tanque Sisley vs Club Nacional de Montevideo (4) 2-1, draw no bet

Enjoy your free betting tips!

Typically, with international games everywhere, I've elected to pick a club game as my game of the day, which in this instance is the Polish Liga 1 game between Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin. The two sides are both expected to compete for promotion this season and both certainly have the quality to do so and thus we should see a good game tonight.

However, out of the two sides, only Piast Gliwice have looked a dominant threat in the division with their visitors floundering due to a lack of goals. Piast have only won twice in five games, drawing their last three games consecutively. Generally speaking, I'd be afraid of that record but I feel it's a tad misleading in this instance so I'm not overly concerned. The reason I dismiss that particular statistic is because two of those games were two of the most difficult trips to make in this division (promotion candidates LKS Lodz in a 2-2 draw and Flota Swinoujscie 0-0) due to the quality and/or home advantage of the two sides. Their one abject display was their 0-0 draw at home to Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski but all in all, they've looked good in Liga 1 with clear intent to make a swift return to the Ekstraklasa. Piast have already beaten fellow promotion rivals GKS Katowice at home this season and are generally a very strong home side so I fancy them a lot today as a result, particularly as the quality in their side makes them the best side in the division, in my opinion.

I have a lt of respect for their opponents Pogon Szczecin too but they've failed to impress me so far this season en mass. I expected them to win comfortably in their last match at home to Dolcan Zabki and they did so but that's largely due to the inability of their opponents. In fact, that win was just their second Liga 1 win of the season with both wins coming at home against meager opponents, the other game being a win against Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski. They've played three away games in Liga 1 and have lost all of them, which isn't good enough for a supposed promotion candidate. The defeat at LKS Lodz is acceptable because LKS are a good side. I can even accept the defeat at difficult Flota Swinoujscie! However, losing at Sandecja Nowy Sacz simply isn't acceptable at all, especially having had a valuable lead at half-time only to throw it away and have a man dismissed petulantly. If Pogon defend as immaturely as they did in that game today, they're going to be torn apart by a Piast side that is very much due a win. Pogon are capable of stopping them, especially with arguably the best goalkeeper in the division (Janukiewicz) in goal for Pogon, but they've demonstrated little ability on the road so far this season and I don't see why that would start not.

On a good day, I'd half-fancy Pogon to get a draw here but given how little they've impressed me in difficult situations this season and considering that Piast are the better side, I have to favour the hosts here. Piast are favourites for promotion and I'll be surprised if they don't earn an Ekstraklasa place again this year with the quality at their disposal. Piast are often a force at home so as long as their strikers turn up today, the odds on the home win should turn out to be a little too generous here.

Team news - Piast miss Chalbinski, Halgas, and new loan signing Maycon whereas there are no notable absences for Pogon. It's also worth noting that Piast manager Brosz sits this one (and the next one) out in the stands after offending a referee against Ostrowiec but I don't expect that to massively impact Piast's play today.

Verdict: Piast Gliwice to win at 6/5.

Friday's Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Armenia vs Republic of Ireland - both sides to score at 6/5.

Both of these sides are very much worthy of respect; underestimate them and you'll be punished more often than not. However, the odds on Ireland to win this game are positively criminal! Ireland have won two out of their last ten away games and whereas they have faced some tricky sides along the way and battled as impressively as ever, they're still not a clinical side. Armenia are no giants of "European" football but they've started playing well at home of late with two wins in their last four games. They've beaten Belgium and Uzbekistan 2-1 and 3-1 respectively and lost 2-1 at home to Spain rather respectably too. They were leading at home to Iran in their last game before an abject second-half saw them lose the game 3-1 but one thing is for sure - Armenia are developing quite rapidly. Their defence is still shaky but their attack is good as seven goals scored in their last four games indicates all too well. To beat this Armenia side you have to outscore them and that may be where Ireland stumble today. If Armenia's defence was better than I'd probably edge laying Republic of Ireland at 11/10. Then again, with Duff and McShane having pulled out through injury, the lay does appeal to me. Howevr, Armenia's defence isn't good so both sides scoring in this game at 6/5 really appeals to me, especially considering that Armenia have scored for four consecutive home games and Ireland have scored in four consecutive away games!

Verdict: Both sides to score at 6/5.

Kazakhstan vs Turkey - Kazakhstan to win with +2.5 handicap at 4/5.

I love this bet for some reason! This bet would mean that Kazakhstan winning nineteen out of their last twenty-one home games, which I think is pretty damn convincing. The only two sides to batter Kazakhstan here were an on-fire Belarus and a fortunate England. As many of you many remember, England somehow won in Kazakhstan 4-0 despite not playing well. Only a lack of stamina towards the end of the game by the hosts and some suicidal defending gave England such a heavy win. Football-wise, Kazakhstan looked good; they just didn't put the ball in the net. However, against what I can only describe as one of Turkey's weaker sides, I fancy the Kazakhs to score at least one goal today. Turkey are obviously the better side but they're not playing particularly well internationally and they're really running rather short on quality nowadays. Their latest squad is puzzling with some of the players included not even playing for their clubs at the moment so I think there'll be some dishamony in the Turkish camp with that in mind. Turkey have never been good defensively; they only know how to attack. This bet would mean that Turkey have lost sixteen out of their last seventeen away games with their only exception being an uncharacteristic 3-0 win at Ukraine last year. Turkey have never travelled well and although their potency is a concern, I really can't see them running away with this unless they're clever enough tactically to note how tired Kazakhstan get in the last third of each game. For me, giving Kazakhstan a +2.5 goal head start in this game looks very good indeed today.

Verdict: Kazakhstan to win with a +2.5 goal handicap at 4/5.

Andorra vs Russia - Andorra to win with +4.5 handicap at 3/4.

To appreciate why this bet potentially has value, I want you to imagine for one moment that Andorra are not footballing minnows. Now look at Russia's record of not having scored more than three goals in a game for their last twenty-one consecutive games. Then consider that giving Andorra +4.5 goals as a head start means that they've won seventeen out of their last nineteen home games. Only then can you begin to see what I mean here. If you go off names and are a complete fucking moron then you'll no doubt say 0-10. Russia are a good side and obviously a lot better than Andorra but they're simply not a big goalscoring side. They travelled to face Andorra at the end of the last European Championships campaign in a must-win game and won 1-0 in a nervous encounter. Andorra have got better since then and although they're still a weak side, they simply don't concede many goals anymore unless a side plays very well against them. Andorra have battled their way to 1-0 defeats against Cyprus and Albania in their two most recent friendlies and whereas they might not be footballing giants, they are respectable defeats away from home against two competent sides. Andorra have become a lot more physical as a side and I fancy them to cause Russia some problems today. For me, these odds are a gift today and although Russia could potentially win this game 0-8, I just don't see enough in their squad for them to do so today and thus I think the value is with Andorra. I'm even tempted to try +3.5 goals at better odds but this one is safer so that's my recommendation today.

Verdict: Andorra to win with +4.5 goal handicap at 3/4.

Faroe Islands vs Serbia - under 2.5 goals at 13/10.

This looks a classic under 2.5 goals game to me so I'll be all over it. I really wanted to give the Faroes a +2.5 goal head start but the bookies are catching on that Faroe Islands are a lot harder to beat than they used to be. Kerr's side are well-organised, disciplined, and generally very hard to beat. They faced Estonia in their most recent game away from home as a farewell to Faroese legend Jakup A Borg and they led for a great portion of the game before conceding two very late goals to lose the game. Faroe Islands are not rubbing rags anymore - they're a very physical and hard-to-beat side. I don't think they're as potent as Scandinavian neighbours Iceland but I rate them as being equal defensively. We all know Serbia are a defensive side and are well-organised too but they're not great goalscorers themselves. I think they're going to find a very physical opponent today and that doesn't suit Serbia - they prefer that as their advantage. Serbia should edge this game but for me, under 2.5 goals is the way to go here although I'd be lying if I said that backing Faroe Islands to win with +1.5 handicap at 33/20 didn't intrigue me.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 13/10.

San Marino vs Netherlands - away win with -4.5 handicap at 6/5.

Do I really need to explain this one? San Marino are still terrible and the recall of one of Europe's finest ever finishers Ruud van Nistelrooy to the Dutch side can only be a good thing. The odds are good enough to take too!

Verdict: Netherlands to win with a -4.5 goal handicap at 6/5.

Liechtenstein vs Spain - Liechtenstein to win with +3.5 handicap at 11/10.

This one is one of my more bold calls of the day but I still like it. Why? Well, Liechtenstein aren't as bad as they were. A draw at Iceland last match showed that they're not only capable of nicking the odd goal nowadays but they're also a solid unit defensively. Peter Jehle is a good goalkeeper and the likes of Burgmeier bring experience to this side so don't write the hosts off here. Giving the hosts a +3.5 goal head start in their last twelve home games means that Liechtenstein win eleven of those games. The only side to break that record was a rampant German side, running out 6-0 winners. Liechtenstein still have a long way to go in the football world but they're certainly not rubbing rags anymore - they'll not lie down against the world champions today. However, Spain are indeed world champions so caution must be used here. Spain are a magnificent side and we all know they could beat any international side on the planet if they so desired so it depends how they approah the game. My bet is based upon Spain's general inability to break down sides that stick ten men behind the ball as they demonstrated numerous times in the World Cup and with none of their players having played consistently of late due to respective leagues having only just started so they may even be a tad rusty - Torres has certainly looked it. I do expect Spain to win this game, ultimately, but I don't think it'll be as flambuoyant as normal. Let's face it - Spain are bad enough defensively to concede in this game so I think Liechtenstein can succeed with a +3.5 goal head start today, risky though it undoubtedly is.

Verdict: Liechtenstein to win with a +3.5 goal handicap at 11/10.

France vs Belarus - under 2.5 goals at 3/4.

The state of France is well-documented with many big names suspended and a lot of unproven and fairly average players left behind. I rate manager Blanc as the finest in France currently so I'm sure he'll improve them at least a little in the near future. However, they're not there yet and losing a lead against Norway of late showed that in its entirety. France is in a transitional period and I don't fancy them against anyone at the moment, basically. Belarus, however, are a side on the ride. Unlike most Eastern European nations, Belarus actually play good football and keep the ball well. They're lethal on the counter attack with the pace of both Hleb brothers and they have some hard players in defence and midfield to provide the necessary steel when defending. I rate this Belarusian side very highly indeed and if they had only claimed Milevskiy before Ukraine did then I believe they'd be a very good side indeed nowadays. However, as it happens, they're a side that keeps the ball well, keeps opponents out, but doesn't score as many as they should. I fancy them to frustrate France tonight with their passing ability and talented players and ultimately I feel under 2.5 goals is on the card with either a low-scoring draw or a narrow victory on the horizon.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 3/4.

Belarus U21 vs Scotland U21 - home win at 5/4.

I'm a massive advocate of the Belarusian U21 side because they've been good for a few years now. They're not at their best defensively but in attack, they have some really promising players. Dinamo Minsk midfielder Dmitri Rekish and Cagliari midfielder Mikhail Sivakov are very good players in midfield for the hosts and are generally instrumental to Belarusian success when they're started together. Belarus' U21 side is largely composed of Dinamo Minsk players, which aids the squad's cohesion, understandably. Indeed, they play a similar style of possession football to the Belarusian giants so Belarus U21 have a good platform to build upon. Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih striker Varankov is proving a valuable asset in attack and generally, Belarus are looking pretty damn good. They've scored seven goals in their last three games to demonstrate their potency and even came from 3-1 down at Austria U21 last match to draw 3-3, demonstrating their belief against a very good Austria U21 side. Interestingly enough, the only side to beat them in their last six games was Scotland in a 1-0 defeat but that was away; this one is in Borisov. The only side to win at Belarus U21 in the last five years is Italy, which is an understandable defeat, really! They play good attacking football and although Scotland U21 are a fairly solid unit defensively, their criticism has to be not scoring enough goals. Their last game was a 2-2 draw at home to ten-men Azerbaijan U21, embarassingly enough, which displays how easily they can be contained on their day. The Scots are a feisty bunch and won't make this easy for Belarus but I think the hosts will just outscore them today, to be honest. Odds of 5/4 are good in my view as I consider Belarus U21 to be one of the better U21 sides in Europe currently and it's also worth noting that both sides need the points here as a win for either side lifts them above Austria into first place with just one game remaining after that.

Verdict: Belarus U21 to win at 5/4.

Accumulator fodder:

Spain, Netherlands, Russia, Sweden U21, Northern Ireland U21, Sparta Rotterdam.

Recommended bets:

Sweden U21 and Belarus U21 at 2/1.

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today's games, see below!

UEFA European Championship Qualifiers:

Armenia vs Republic of Ireland (5) 1-1
Kazakhstan vs Turkey (5) 1-2
Moldova vs Finland (6) 0-0
Andorra vs Russia (8) 0-2
Faroe Islands vs Serbia (6) under 2.5 goals
Montenegro vs Wales (5) 1-1
Sweden vs Hungary (7) 2-1
Romania vs Albania (6) under 2.5 goals
Latvia vs Croatia (7) 1-2
Lithuania vs Scotland (6) 0-0
Luxembourg vs Bosnia-Herzegovina (7) over 2.5 goals
Estonia vs Italy (4) 0-0
Slovakia vs Republic of Macedonia (7) 2-0
San Marino vs Netherlands (10) -4.5 handicap
Liechtenstein vs Spain (8) -1.5 handicap
Belgium vs Germany (7) 1-2
Slovenia vs Northern Ireland (7) 2-0
Greece vs Georgia (7) 1-0
France vs Belarus (6) 0-0
England vs Bulgaria (7) 2-1
Iceland vs Norway  (6) 1-1
Portugal vs Cyprus (4) 1-0

African Nations Qualifiers:

Algeria vs Tanzania (7) 2-0

UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:

Slovenia vs Belgium (5) 1-1
Romania vs Russia (6) 1-1
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Italy (4) 2-1
Belarus vs Scotland (7) 1-0
Sweden vs Israel (8) 2-0
Finland vs Poland (4) 1-2
Norway vs Cyprus (7) 1-0
Czech Republic vs Germany (5) 2-1
Ukraine vs France (6) 1-1
Portugal vs England (6) 1-1
Switzerland vs Republic of Ireland (7) 2-1
Northern Ireland vs San Marino (10) -2.5 handicap

International Friendlies:

Venezuela vs Colombia (6) 1-1
Kuwait vs Syria (6) 1-0
China vs Iran (7) 1-1
Qatar vs Bahrain (7) 0-0
Oman vs Malaysia (5) 1-1(played in Doha)
Switzerland vs Australia (5) 1-0
Panama vs Costa Rica (5) 2-2

Argentinian Primera Division:

Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Estudiantes De La Plata (6) 1-1

Australian A-League:

Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory (6) 1-1

Colombian Primera A:

La Equidad Bogota vs America de Cali (6) over 2.5 goals

Danish 1st Division:

Viborg vs Fredericia (6)

Finnish Ykkonen:

PK-35 Helsinki vs OPS Oulu (5) under 2.5 goals

Irish Premier League:

Dundalk vs Bray Wanderers (7) 1-0
Galway United vs St.Patrick's Athletic (6) 1-2
Sporting Fingal vs Bohemians (5) 1-1
UCD vs Drogheda United (4) 2-1
Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers (7) 2-1

Dutch Eerste Divisie:

RKC Waalwijk vs Volendam (6)
MVV Maastricht vs RBC Roosendaal (5)
Telstar vs Den Bosch (6)
Almere City vs Cambuur Leeuwarden (7)
Go Ahead Eagles vs Helmond Sport (6)
Dordrecht '90 vs Zwolle (6)
Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard (8)
Veendam vs Emmen (5)

Polish Liga 1:

Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin (7)

Singaporean S-League:

Home United vs Etoile (5) 2-2

Enjoy your free betting tips!

The reason Santos are doing so well is because of the nucleus of home-grown talent in the squad. The likes of Neymar, Ganso, Andre, and Wesley formed an exciting attacking unit and Santos have benefited strongly from it. However, as per usual, Santos have been forced to part with some of those players for financial reasons. Neymar and Ganso are yet to move on despite both being heavily linked with moves abroad. Andre has signed for Dynamo Kiev and Wesley has signed for Werder Bremen to replace Turkish German international Mesut Ozil after his departure to Real Madrid. Santos are used to this kind of problem, however, which is why they've signed Rodrigo Possebon from Manchester United and Keirrison on loan from Barcelona. Add those players to a side that already has experienced Edu Dracena and Arouca in it and the problem doesn't seem too bad. Admittedly, there will be a teething period and it could very well start tonight but Santos remain a very determined unit and should prove to be such again tonight despite having recently lost influential midfielder Wesley.

Santos bring a good level of momentum into this game following four consecutive wins and with seven goals scored along the way, they're not showing any signs of slowing down despite their departing youngsters, impressively enough. They've already won five out of seven at home this season whilst averaging scoring nearly two goals per game so it's pretty much a given that in-form Santos will score against Avai tonight, just as they have done for the last four consecutive meetings between the two sides.

The big question is "will Avai join the party?", to which my answer is "yes". Why? Well, Avai are a plucky side. They've got a lot of guile and tenacity and although they do lack in the defensive department, they never seem to be short on goalscoring, although that is a more relevant statement when compared to their home form. Avai do average scoring a goal per away game at present but considering that they average scoring over two goals per home game, it's not that an impressive record anymore. Avai actually average conceding two goals per away game at the moment so they've got defensive problems here before the match begins! Avai were on a barren run before their trip to relegation-threatened Atletico Goianiense last match as they claimed a 2-2 draw, which was their first points and first goals for three consecutive games, a run which included a home game against their opponents tonight, Santos. However, this was little more than a blip on Avai's form chart as their other head-to-head statistics reveal with both sides scoring at least once in their previous three meetings. Their last game at Santos actually ended 1-3 in favour of Avai earlier this season in the Copa Sudamericana so don't doubt the visitors today despite their poor run of form - the likes of Caio and Vandinho often have other ideas when sides write them off!

All in all, Santos aren't at their most complete due to Wesley departing despite the form chart showing otherwise and Avai aren't as bad as the form chart makes out either. I think the bookies have been just a little lenient with the odds on show tonight as both sides are simply goalscoring sides by nature and their head-to-heads almost always reflect that.  

Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/6.

Thursday's Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Israel vs Malta - Malta to win with +2.5 goal handicap at 10/11.

I genuinely can't believe my eyes with these odds. Ok, Israel are a good side on their day if they somehow find an alternative to Benayoun carrying them but they're not good enough to earn 1/12 here! They're a decent possession side and they're not easy to beat but they're certainly not natural goalscorers. The only time they've beaten a side to a sufficient level for the above handicap to fail was a somewhat uncharacteristic 7-0 win against Luxembourg last year - the last time prior to that was Estonia in 2007. Don't get me wrong here - the likes of Katan, Sahar, and Arbeitman are good strikers, as is Argentinian striker Colautti, but they're not deadly at this level. Israel are a sound side but they're simply not ruthless enough to destroy Malta today, in my humble opinion, although they should ultimately win the game.

I'd be the first one to admit that Malta aren't exactly world-beaters but what they are is hard to break down. They've played three games this year. They lost 1-2 at home to Finland despite matching their Scandinavian visitors for the majority of the game. They were then undone 3-0 away from home by a good Germany side before holding Republic of Macedonia to a 1-1 draw at home a few weeks ago. Malta aren't the walkover side that they used to be. With the likes of Mifsud and Bogdanovic playing abroad, Maltese experience on the continent is starting to increase and their overall football is beginning to show it. They're not good enough to be taking points off the Israelis today barring a miraculous display but I do think they're good enough to stop the Israelis from making this a walk in the park. I've got scorelines of 1-0 and 2-0 in my head but I'd be surprised to see anything more than that.

Obviously this isn't a dead certain bet and remember what I said the other day regarding caution when betting on international games! However, the odds on Israel winning this game are too short for my liking so I think giving the Maltese side a +2.5 goal handicap at generous odds of 10/11 could be very worthwhile today if things unfold as I expect them to.

Verdict: Malta to win with a +2.5 goal handicap at 10/11.

Spain vs Netherlands - over 2.5 goals at 10/11.

I don't really think there's much I can write here, regrettably! I often have this problem with international selections as there isn't an awful lot you can write about. Simply put - these are two goalscoring sides with very talented players. Netherlands' last five consecutive games have gone over 2.5 goals (including a 2-1 win against Spain) and three out of Spain's last five games have gone over 2.5 goals. Spain's defence isn't as good as Netherlands' but they make up for it by boasting a marginally better attack. Netherlands don't need to win this game as they've already qualified for Denmark 2011 but Spain could do with winning this one as they're four points clear of Poland with two games remaining and with their last game being away at Poland, three points today would be very welcome indeed. I therefore see Spain attacking a lot and the Dutch having some joy on the counter-attack which leaves me with over 2.5 goals at decent odds. I'd leave the home win though - 8/11 leaves a sour taste in my mouth for a game between two good sides so I'd perhaps hit it in-play if you're interested in the 1X2 side of this game.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 10/11.

No multiples appeal to me today, guys, although feel free to check out my thoughts on the rest of the day's action below!

UEFA European Championship Qualifier:

Israel vs Malta (6) 1-0

UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifier:

Spain vs Netherlands (7) over 2.5 goals

Copa Sudamericana:

Olimpia Asuncion vs Defensor Sporting (4) 2-1
Velez Sarsfield vs Banfield (6) under 2.5 goals

Brazilian Serie A:

Santos vs Avai (5) 2-2
Sao Paulo vs Atletico Goianiense (5) 2-1

Singaporean S-League:

Armed Forces vs Sengkang Punggol (5) over 2.5 goals

Enjoy your free betting tips!

Looking at hosts Goias first, however - bottom of the table after seventeen games with three wins all season - it doesn't look good, does it? Goias fans have reason for concern too as their side just doesn't score enough goals to drag themselves away from the relegation zone. Only newly-promoted Ceara and striker-less Flamengo have scored as few goals as they have this season but even those two sides can't match Goias' paltry record of six goals scored in eight home games. It speaks volumes as to why Goias have won just once in those eight games, drawing three times and losing four times along the way. They don't concede many at home, to their credit, but just one goal can be a killer if you don't score the goals to match your opponents. The problem in the squad obviously starts with quality; something they have very little of. Their best striker is Everton Santos and even he's not able to hold this club up on his own. Where else is the stability in their squad - Rafael Toloi? Too young. Amaral and Jonilson in midfield? Maybe. There's not enough leaders in this side and not enough goalscorers so Goias are in a very bad way indeed, particularly on the back of four consecutive defeats with one goal scored and nine goals conceded.

Visitors Atletico Mineiro aren't a particularly bad side in all honesty - they just can't defend. Naturally, they have their key players that bail them out from tricky situations, namely experienced midfielder Ricardinho and ex-PSV Eindhoven striker Diego Tardelli in attack, who is their leading goalscorer. That's two "match winners" that they boast over their hosts Goias as Goias really lack that extra edge when they have possession - someone to make something happen. Manager Vanderlei Luxemburgo knows the script; he's been around long enough and is good enough to keep Atletico in the division, in my opinion. Like most Brazilian clubs, Atletico Mineiro struggled to hold onto their more important players from last season with Jonilson moving to Goias, Renan moving to Guarani, Thiago moving to Atletico Goianiense etc. Most notable was the departure of Tardelli's strike partner Eder Luis, who moved to SL Benfica for a brief loan spell. He returned to Mineiro at the start of August but has failed to recapture the form that saw he and Tardelli forge one of the most lethal strike duos in Brazil last season. Atletico Mineiro are very much a home side which is why they've struggled on the road this season and I don't expect anything different tonight although I have to confess that I do rate them as a better side than Goias.

So - a Goias side that doesn't score goals at home against an Atletico Mineiro side that doesn't score goals away! Five out of Atletico's last six away games have gone under 2.5 goals and four out of Goias' last six home games have gone under 2.5 goals. Five out of the last six meetings between these two sides have gone under 2.5 goals and with neither side keen on scoring and both probably happy to take a draw here, my call is under 2.5 goals at slightly generous odds.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 17/20.

Wednesday's Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Vitoria vs Internacional - home win at 13/10.

This was a contender for game of the day because I have an awful lot of faith in Vitoria at home as they consistently demonstrate year after year just how hard a region Bahia is to travel to. They're not free of the relegation zone yet but I have very little doubt in saying I'm confident they'll avoid relegation because of their excellent home form. They've played eight home games this season, winning four times, drawing three times, and losing just once. They abandon their usually strong defence when playing at home in favour of a more ruthless attacking football and as a result, only Corinthians and Avai have scored more than they have at home this season in Serie A. It's also worth noting that Vitoria do concede a lot of goals with their haphazard attacking football with only Atletico Mineiro the only side to have conceded as many goals as Vitoria have at home this season. However, Vitoria have looked strong lately with two wins (at home to Santos and away against Cruzeiro), a valiant defeat at Corinthians last match, and an unimpressive 1-1 draw with Guarani although that's the only blemish in their last four games, in my opinion. Generally speaking, the only way to stop Vitoria taking points at home is to outscore them, as obvious as it may sound. Vitoria haven't failed to score in a Serie A home game since November 2009 so you know what you're up against when you face them away from home!

Visitors Internacional have suffered something of a contintenal hangover after beating Mexican side Guadalajara in the Copa Libertadores final with a string of unconvincing results following that historic result. They've drawn at home to lowly Atletico Goianiense but have then beaten both Avai away and Botafogo at home, which looks good on paper but their performances haven't impressed me, to be honest. They've won their last two games 1-0, which is fair enough - a win is a win, after all. However, they're facing a side tonight that almost certainly will score against them and with Internacional looking as impotent as ever, it's hard to see them doing damage to their hosts tonight. The reason they've struggled moreso than normal of late is because star striker Alecsandro and Argentinian midfielder Guinazu have both been missing through injury since the Copa Libertadores final and if the information I've been given is correct then they'll both miss this game too. To go to Vitoria with an under-strength side is never a good idea and although Internacional don't concede many on the road, they don't score vast amounts either, particularly without Alecsandro, who has scored over a third of their goals away from home this season. His replacement Rafael Sobis isn't what he used to be and his lacklustre displays haven't impressed me whatsoever so altogether, Internacional should have problems tonight.

Vitoria have beaten Internacional at home for three consecutive seasons now and I don't see an Internacional side playing tonight that is capable of rectifying that record. For that to happen, they're going to need goalkeeper Renan in top form, midfield duo Andrezinho and D'Alessandro in top form, and striker Rafael Sobis back to his best and I personally feel all of the above are rather a long shot. Vitoria are always solid at home because of the united front that they present so for me, this game has the hallmarks of a scrappy but valuable home win for Vitoria against continentally-hungover Internacional.

Verdict: Vitoria to win at 13/10.

Atletico Paranaense vs Ceara - home win at 9/10.

This one's considerably easier to write about - one good home side against one very poor side! Simple! No defeats in three games for Atletico gives them the momentum to do well tonight, particularly as they've won two of those games and kept two clean sheets along the way. They've played Santos, Sao Paulo, Flamengo, and Gremio in their last four games and have won twice and drawn twice, which should give you some indication as to how good they are at home. They don't score enough goals in general but a weak Ceara side should play a part there. I know statistics show that Ceara are a strong defensive unit but that was under their first and second manager respectively. Their third manager of this season is attempting a more suicidal attacking football. It's a respectable aim, I admit, but it's a foolhardy one because Ceara are really a very poor side. Look upon them as a type of Stoke City of the Brazilian Serie A and you'll know what I mean (and that's no insult to Stoke, incidentally!) - if they abandon their defensive shape, they get ripped apart. Their attacking football paid dividends at home to Gremio in a 2-1 win but that's the only time it's worked with Botafogo beating them since than and a weak Gremio Prudente claiming a 2-2 draw at Ceara last match. I basically expect Ceara to attack Atletico tonight and as Atletico are a better side, I fancy them to make the most of it. The odds are a tad lower than I'd hoped but I still like the win as Atletico's goalscoring problems should be resolved by Ceara coming out of their shell and attacking so I expect a home win tonight. With the above in mind, over 2.5 goals at 21/20 also looks intriguing despite contradicting statistics!

Verdict: Atletico Paranaense to win at 9/10.

Ferencvaros vs Gyori ETO FC - home win at 6/5.

This is a risky call but I'm banking on Ferencvaros' pride doing a lot of damage here. Ferencvaros are the biggest Hungarian side by a mile and their determination to be back at the top of the Soproni Liga is massive, as their active interest in the transfer market showed over summer. The acquisition of Czech attacker Marek Heinz was an inspired one both for his experience and ability and he's shown glimpses of his ability for Ferencvaros already this season, happily. Serbian midfielder Stanic was signed from Disogyori VTK after an impressive campaign too so Ferencvaros haven't exactly rested on their laurels having avoided relegation after their first season back in the top flight of Hungarian football. Their battling spirit and intense support often gives them an extra man so you'll rarely find me going against Ferencvaros. However, those two aspects combined can also result in Ferencvaros losing a man, as it proved in the derby at home to Budapest Honved lately, where the afore-mentioned Stanic was dismissed in Ferencvaros' only defeat of the season thus far. Although Ferencvaros' defence is questionable, their attack rarely is as they've proven by scoring at least once in all of their games so far this season so my only doubt here is whether they'll outscore their opponents or not, although a draw at impressive Fehervar last match has certainly done enough to convince me that they're a lot more capable this season than they were last season.

It aids my bet that Gyori ETO FC have had European committments for some time now because their squad is looking rather stretched. Finding an adequate replacement for departed Estonian midfielder/striker Tarmo Kink has proved tricky, as has the departure of midfielder Jozsi to their hosts today. Gyori ETO FC still have a very capable squad and their strength has always been defence so the challenge is for Ferencvaros to shatter it today. However, given that Gyori have only just returned from Croatia to play their fourth game in twelve days, you have to fancy the visitors to be a little jaded here. Their overall domestic displays this season have looked rather jaded and understandably so - European football has to be their priority. However, despite Gyori's defence looking about as strong as usual, their attack doesn't look as threatening and with tiredness sure to be a factor here, I find it hard to be very concerned about Gyori today, as dangerous as that could prove to be.

Ferencvaros beat title candidates Gyori ETO FC 1-0 here last season and in general have a very strong home record against their visitors today, a record that stretches back to the 90's so the hosts know how to beat the pretenders to what they believe is their throne. Ferencvaros are strengthening year by year and it shouldn't be too long before they're competing with Debreceni VSC, Gyori ETO FC, and Fehervar for the Soproni Liga title. Visitors Gyori ETO FC are finding life in the spotlight a little harder than normal and a trip to volatile Ferencvaros at this stage of the season should be considered rather unwelcome. I therefore think that the odds on the home win are decent value although this should be a close game nonetheless.

Verdict: Ferencvaros to win at 6/5.

Recommended bets:

Singles only today, guys - I don't like any multiples, unfortunately!

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today's games, see below!

Copa Sudamericana:

River Plate Montevideo vs Guarani Asuncion (6) 2-1
Trujillanos vs Atletico Huila (4) 2-1, draw no bet

Brazilian Serie A:

Vitoria vs Internacional (6) 2-1
Gremio vs Guarani (4) 1-1
Gremio Prudente vs Botafogo (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Goias vs Atletico Mineiro (5) under 2.5 goals
Cruzeiro vs Flamengo (6) 1-0
Atletico Paranaense vs Ceara (7) over 2.5 goals
Fluminense vs Palmeiras (7) 2-1

Hungarian Soproni Liga:

Zalaegerszegi TE vs Lombard Papa (5) over 2.5 goals
Ferencvaros vs Gyori ETO FC (6) 2-1

Singaporean S-League:

Beijing Guoan vs Tampines Rovers (7) over 2.5 goals

Swedish Superettan:

Angelholm vs Assyriska Sodertalje (4) draw no bet

Venezuelan Primera Division:

Aragua vs Deportivo Lara (5) 2-1

Enjoy your free betting tips!

This is Oriente Petrolero's first ever experience on the continent and they've handled themselves well thus far, claiming an extremely impressive 2-2 draw in the first leg of this tie. Universidad are a very strong side, especially at home, so it surprised me an awful lot when a frankly inferior side managed to take something from a trip there. That in itself is a warning that Oriente Petrolero are very serious about this competition so I'll give them the respect that they've earned for tonight's games. Domestically, Oriente Petrolero have only lost twice in twenty consecutive home games and those games were against bitter rivals Blooming Santa Cruz and Aurora Cochabamba, two of the more successful Bolivian sides nowadays so it's far from a bad record. Indeed, Oriente Petrolero have won fifteen of those games and haven't actually lost at home to anyone but Blooming and Aurora since February 2009, which I think is pretty damn impressive. This side were once nobodies; they clearly have no intention of letting that remain the case for much longer. They're not shy with their cash either, signing the likes of Uruguayan striker Jorge Ramirez from Atenas, Argentinian defender Alejandro Schiapparelli from Bolivar La Paz, and Paraguayan midfielder Francisco Benitez from Real Mamore in a bid to boost their squad and its worked wonders with Oriente Petrolero rapidly ascending through Bolivian ranks to being one of the better sides in the country. Promising striker Alcides Pena has linked up well with Uruguayan striker Jorge Ramirez with both players scoring goals for fun this season and it'll be interesting to see how they fare at home to an experienced continental opponent tonight if Pena is ruled fit enough to play. Midfielder Joselito Vaca will be key for Oriente Petrolero as he's one of the few players they have to have played outside South America and thus has key experience for the side. The other key player in that aspect is Saucedo, who isn't long back from a spell with Chernomorets Odessa. He openly confessed to being happy there but the Ukrainian side opted not to sign him so he returned to Oriente Petrolero. Argentinian manager Gustavo Quintero made a brave move to rest players at Real Mamore last match by sending a second string but he was left without option after Real Mamore refused Oriente Petrolero's proposal to move the game. As a result, he does have a full-strength side to select from tonight and I fancy them as a result with such a good set of players at their disposal, not to mention with the game being played at approximately 1,500 metres above sea level.

I'm a big advocate of the tenacious Universidad de Chile but it almost looks like their Copa Libertadores Semi-Final defeat against Mexican outfit Guadalajara has impacted them mentally because they looked rather abject in the first leg of this tie. Domestically, they're back to basics, but on the continent they appear a little more hesitant than they were previously. Universidad are a side that I always associate tenacity and belief with and yet the side lacked both in their usual doses in the first leg so I'm not sure how they're planning to progress tonight. Royas and midfield general Iturra were rested in their last game at home to Santiago Wanderers but an alarming number of Universidad's first string played in that game, which confirms my opinion that Universidad are being a little cocky and may become complacent as a result. Their manager Gerardo Pelusso has already stated his confidence at qualifying for the next round despite playing a difficult game at high altitude as the club have never lost outside Chile. Either he's stupid or he meant this year because Universidad certainly have lost outside of Chile; just not since 2009. They're a very experienced side, Universidad, and it takes a lot for me to against them in any continental competition as a result. They really are a very good side and they travel a lot better than most continental sides. However, with most of their first team in action just a few days ago and now facing a trip to a high altitude venue, I can't see them doing as well here as their manager seems to think they will. Universidad have won in Bolivia before but Oriente Petrolero is something of an "unknown" away game as they've never played in this competition before and in my experience, that's never a good thing to take lightly. The hosts obviously have some money behind them and they're creating a very strong squad, not to mention they seem more determined than Universidad tonight to qualify for the latter stages of the competition so I do fear for the Chilean side tonight.

This game should be a lot closer than most games between Bolivian sides and their respective opponents in continental competition because the altitude favours the hosts and Oriente Petrolero actually bring some quality into this game, unlike their Bolivian counterparts. Universidad are a very strong side but this is a tough game for them, particularly as they have to attack and this is no height to be excessively running around or tiredness and even sickness can kick in after a while. As weak as Bolivian sides are in general when compared to the remainder of South America, they have a strong home advantage in general that often serves them well so they're not to be underestimated here. Ultimately, I just don't see Oriente Petrolero losing this game tonight. I can accept a draw but for a side to win in Bolivia, they have to play very well indeed and I just don't think Universidad have prepared well enough to do so, especially when you consider the measures that the hosts have taken to prepare for this game. Therefore, my recommendation is to take the home win with draw no bet tonight with the hope that the arising Bolivian side fulfills their potential and plays a good tactical game to incorporate their altitude advantage into their strategy.

Either way, let's hope this game ends much better for the hosts than their last game did a few days ago at Real Mamore. They lost the game 3-2 with a second-string, as you'd expect, but the referee was bombarded with water bottles at the end of the game by the home fans because they were unhappy with his display and he was escorted off the premises with police protection. That kind of activity in this game would no doubt see Oriente Petrolero expelled from the competition so let's pray they have more sense than their Bolivian counterparts did last match!

Verdict: Oriente Petrolero to win with draw no bet at 7/5.

Tuesday's Picks

My tips:

The only other game I like today is:

Barcelona Guayaquil vs Penarol - home win at evens.

Barcelona Guayaquil enter this game on the back of a very impressive 1-0 win at El Nacional Quito so will understandably bring some momentum into this game. They have the advantage over Penarol of being mid-season domestically and having already played two games in this competition against Peru's Universidad Cesar Vallejo, impressively winning both in Peru and in Ecuador with apparent ease. They miss De Jesus in defence for this game following his intelligent dismissal at the end of their home encounter with Universidad Cesar Vallejo and that is a blow for them. However, the goals of Paraguayan striker Samudio should give their opponents more to think about in their own defence rather than making holes in the Barcelona defence. Manager Llop has named the following squad for the home game with Penarol:

Banguera, Viteri, Cevallos, Perlaza, Hurtado, Nazareno, Hidalgo, Oyola, Noir, Rodriguez, Bolanos, Prette, Samudio, Palacios, Garces, Leon, Montenegro, Anagono, Valdivieso.

As I touched upon earlier - Barcelona are only missing De Jesus and boast a full squad aside from that so are well-placed to make their presence felt tonight. Liga de Quito have ensured that Ecuador has become a terrifying place to visit over the past few years and Deportivo Quito have done their best to enhance that reputation, not to mention Barcelona's bitter rivals Emelec Guayaquil. Barcelona now have their long overdue chance to make themselves heard and with match fitness and home advantage favouring them, not to mention high altitude, you have to favour the hosts tonight.

Much like hosts Barcelona, Penarol are a big side in their respective country. Also much like Barcelona, they've been ousted from continental competition for far too long and at least half the country of Uruguay is excited to see them back in action. However, they're going to have some problems tonight, in my opinion. The first one is that they've not played a competitive game of football in approximately three months. To go to Ecuador of all places with that lack of match practice and to get a result is a tad ludicrous, in my humble opinion - a trip to Ecuador should never be taken lightly. Penarol have their two domestic games with Mirimar Misiones and Montevideo Wanderers postponed as they frolicked around with Real Madrid in a friendly and generally pissed around awaiting this fixture, which again is a bad move! I have an awful lot of respect for Penarol as a club with their proud history and relentless support. However, I don't feel they've prepared anywhere near well enough for this game and it really could come back to bite them in the ass tonight. They've brought both of their strike duo Martinuccio and Ramis to Ecuador, although I doubt they'll both start. They've brought former Internazionale midfielder/striker Antonio Pacheco to Ecuador, which is a massive boost for Penarol as he's their best and arguably most experienced player. This whole Penarol squad has a lot of talent in both youth and experience but in a tough venue like the Estadio Monumental Isidro Romero Carbo at high altitude, I doubt we'll get chance to see them shine, particularly with no competitive match practice to assist them.

Juan Pedro Damiani has named the below squad to take to Ecuador:

Sosa, Hernandez, Alcoba, G.Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Albin, Corujo, Sosa, Pacheco, Alonso, Palacios, Estoyanoff, Martinuccio, Domingo, Rios, Alvez, Collazo, Aguirregaray, D.Rodriguez, Ramis.

As you can see, Penarol take a very strong squad to Barcelona with the notable inclusion of new signing Fabian Estoyanoff, who some of you may recall from his time in Spain with Cadiz, Deportivo La Coruna, and Real Valladolid. Having failed to make it out there, he moved to Panionios in Greece and had a good season before returning back to Uruguay. He's too good to be playing in Uruguay so he'll be a valuable acquisition for their squad, I'm sure.

Bluntly; Penarol aren't short of ability but they are short on match practice and they're at a very tough venue against a tough side. With that in mind, I really don't fancy them to do well tonight. I've composed a list of the most recent Uruguayan clubs to visit Ecuador in the past two years below so you can see how they generally fare:

2010 - Copa Libertadores - Deportivo Quito 2 Cerro 1
2010 - Copa Libertadores - Deportivo Cuenca 0 Club Nacional de Montevideo 0
2010 - Copa Libertadores - Emelec Guayaquil  1 Cerro 2
2009 - Copa Sudamericana - Liga de Quito 7 River Plate Montevideo 0
2008 - Copa Libertadoes - Deportivo Cuenca 0 Danubio 0
 
As you can see, Uruguayan clubs rarely win here and tend to be content with a draw. A draw is a possible outcome here and 1/2 on the home win with draw no bet is an acceptable price. However, given Penarol's lack of match practice, I'm more inclined to go for the straight home win at evens because Barcelona have more than enough in their favour to win this game tonight, especially as they know they'll struggle in Uruguay in the second leg.

Verdict: Barcelona Guayaquil to win at evens.

Aside from the above, nothing else interests me today because there are few games due to the approaching international fixtures. However, to see my thoughts on the remainder of today's games, see below!

Copa Sudamericana:

Oriente Petrolero vs Universidad de Chile (5) 2-1
Barcelona Guayaquil vs Penarol (7) 1-0

Singaporean S-League:

Etoile vs Geylang United (7) 2-1
Woodlands Wellington vs Home United (7) 0-2

Enjoy your free betting tips!

Today's featured game is the massive derby match in Iceland's Urvalsdeild between giants KR Reykjavik and reigning champions FH Hafnarfjordur. A win tonight for the hosts sees them leap to the top of the table and would all but end FH's chances of winning the title this year so this could be a very important game indeed.

KR Reykjavik are Iceland's oldest and most successful club so their fans are naturally a little impatient for silverware with just three minor domestic trophies over the past few years. They'd much prefer to get their hands on the Urvalsdeild trophy, something that has been out of their grasp since 2003. KR have been fighting hard to reclaim what they feel is rightfully theirs and they finally have a great chance of doing so, particularly if they win tonight. Although their home record isn't particularly flattering this season, I attribute that to a rather random Urvalsdeild season with most of the heavyweights under-achieving and minnows like IBV Vestmannaeyjar doing very well indeed. However, KR's form of late leaves them as the best side in Iceland as they've won seven out of their last eight Urvalsdeild games, scoring a hefty twenty-one goals along the way, which is an average of nearly three goals per game. Ex-Celtic striker Finnbogason has used his giant frame to  big advantage in attack this season in both assists and goals with Takefusa benefiting immensely from his towering strike partner. The reason I think KR have done so well this season is not solely because of the number of goals that they score but their options in attack with ex-Molde FK striker Baldvinsson as "back-up", who is good enough to start in this division, let alone play as second fiddle! There's both experience and youth in this squad and they've blended particularly well this season so I fancy KR to do tonight what they've not done since 2003 - beat FH at home.

FH have really let me down this season. They've lacked composure, discipline, clinical finishing, and any kind of defensive organisation and will hopefully face the appropriate punishment by the end of the season as a result. They've just looked very complacent for a side that has won many Urvalsdeild titles in recent times and I don't think they've done anywhere near enough this season to be even close to where they are now in the table, let alone have a chance of winning the title. The fact that only five Urvalsdeild sides have conceded more goals than they have tells a story in itself! FH haven't had a dismal campaign on the road but it's not been particularly good either with just three wins in eight away games. They've defended in a semi-decent fashion on the road but their lack of goalscoring has cost them. FH have won just once in their last three away games, losing 3-1 at relegation-threatened UMF Grindavik in their most recent away game. FH have even been throwing leads away this season, which again speaks volumes about them currently. I look at FH's side and just wonder where their goals will come from tonight. They've heavily relied upon striker Bjornsson this season but look totally lost without him. The reason they did so well last season was because they also had Gudnason and Vilhjalmsson contributing but both have under-performed this season and FH look a lot weaker for it.

Ultimately, FH's form of late has reflected their season as a whole by being patchy and unconvincing. I expect their weak defence to finally be torn apart by an eager and massively in-form KR Reykjavik as they really need to win this game today and FH have bottled every other "must-win" game this season; why not this one too? This is a massive game in Iceland, probably the biggest Icelandic derby nowadays, so expect plenty of cards and goals. However, with KR's excellent form at the moment and strong mental belief I have to favour them to win this one at 23/20.

Verdict: KR Reykjavik to win at 23/20.

Monday's Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

APOEL Nicosia vs Ermis - under 2.5 goals at 10/11.

This is a bold call because APOEL are easily two or three times that Ermis are but as ever, there is method to the madness. First of all, APOEL played a draining 120-minute game with Getafe last week in the UEFA Europa League Qualifiers and were desperately unlucky not to qualify after playing their Spanish opponents off the park. APOEL looked frighteningly good and I think they may suffer from something of an anti-climax by facing little Ermis here, not to mention the fatigue factor following a draining game against good opponents. The other factor is that APOEL are currently under suspension and thus cannot have any fans at this game so their tired legs may not get the spurring on that they need. All in all, giants APOEL are primed for a tiring game today and although I still think they'll win the game somewhat comfortably due to their weak opponents, my call is a brave under 2.5 goals for this game today.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 10/11.

Brno vs Sparta Prague - over 2.5 goals at 11/10.

Brno are bottom of the Gambrinus Liga following five defeats in six games. However, that doesn't really tell the whole story. Of course, Brno' shit defence contributes largely to it as they already average conceding over two goals per game but generally, they've not been terrifically different from normal. They lose their away games as per usual but have been a little poorer than normal at home so far. Defence has never been their strong point - it was always goalscoring at home that bailed them out and they've not lost that this year, scoring in all three home games this season. They were stupidly poor at home against Usti nad Labem in their opening game of the season but have been good since then at home, losing 3-2 against a fortuitous Slavia Prague despite having a two-goal lead and beating in-form Mlada Boleslav 3-1 last match. Brno do have goals in them; they just only play well at home so I expect them to turn up tonight, particularly as they're facing Czech Republic's biggest club.

Visitors Sparta Prague are not in a great position to be facing an unpredictable Brno side, however. Back-to-back defeats against MSK Zilina of Slovakia in the UEFA Champions League Qualfiers sees Sparta Prague shunned into the UEFA Europa League, which they're not too impressed with, understandably. They looked poor in both legs, however, so it can't have been unexpected. Sparta have looked average at best this season with goals still in their arsenal but their defence looking vulnerable.
Veteran centre-back Repka is the only one that holds this club together; without him, they're hopeless. Only talented Ivorian youngster Wilfried presents a consistent threat in attack for Sparta but the loan signing of Vachousek from Teplice should give them additional creativity to accomodate for Sparta's less talented strikers. Sparta really need to bounce back from their defeat against title rivals Viktoria Plzen in their most recent Gambrinus Liga game as the gap between themselves and the afore-mentioned is already ten points, although Sparta are playing their game in hand today. They must remain vigilant because this Plzen side looks incredibly vigilant so Sparta have to push for the away win here instead of being content with a draw and sneaking a goal if required. The Gambrinus Liga is not a frequent ally of the away win so I have my doubts over Sparta's quest but Brno's defence is bad enough to concede goals here so Sparta won't be too down.

The problem for Sparta is that Brno are good at scoring goals at home; they always have been. They've averaged scoring two goals per home game so far this season and two out of the last three meetings between these two sides have gone over 2.5 goals so I fancy this one today. Sparta have to be at least a little tired from their trip to Slovakia last week and they don't convince me enough defensively at the moment so I fancy this game to go over 2.5 goals today, particularly if the real Brno turn up - they've only failed to score at home to Sparta Prague once in Sparta's last six visits! I therefore also like both sides to score at 10/11 too.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10.

Victoria Branesti vs Astra Ploiesti - both sides to score at 10/11.

Victoria Branesti are undeniably short on quality in Liga 1 but what they're not short on is belief, something which has shown immensely during their first few games. You can look at their record of four defeats in five games and disregard them entirely or you can look at the games they've played (trips to three of Romania's best sides - CFR Cluj, Steaua Bucharest, and Poli Timisoara) and have given a good account of themselves. Indeed, the trip to CFR Cluj is the only one this season that Victoria Branesti haven't scored in so their potency isn't in question. Their defence is undeniably susceptible and they've been caught out a few times already this season but whilst they're scoring goals, they're worth taking seriously. They've scored three goals in two "home" games, winning one of the games, and generally making nuisances of themselves. Relegation for Victoria Branesti this season looks a distinct possibility, particularly with the handicap of having no home advantage this season, but I'll stick with them whilst they play with as much spirit as they are currently playing with.

Visitors Astra Ploiesti have lofty ambitions this year and although the statistics don't show it, they are improving. They've claimed an impressive 2-2 draw at CFR Cluj and made Dinamo Bucharest work for a 2-1 win at home earlier this season so they're certainly growing in ability. The demise of Unirea Urziceni has boosted their cause too with their place becoming available and also by Astra signing one of their many exiting players - defender Galamaz - so it's worthwhile to not underestimate Astra this season, although I'm not sure they're ready to achieve their long-term goal yet. Much like their hosts today, Astra have scored in four out of their five games this season and have scored in both away games thus far so they look set to cause a few problems themselves on their trip to Buzau so I do see goals here today.

I think both sides are good enough to score against each other but more importantly they're both bad enough defensively to concede against each other. With statistics supporting my theory, the logical step is to back both sides to score in this game today. 

Verdict: Both sides to score at 10/11.

Anzhi Makhachkala vs Sibir Novosibirsk - home win at 4/5.

This relegation battle couldn't have come at a better time for hosts Anzhi and couldn't have come at a worse time for visitors Sibir. Anzhi have played very well in all of their games since their unconvincing 2-1 win at Pskov 747 in the Russian Cup barring their trip to giants CSKA Moscow, winning three times along the way and keeping three clean sheets in their last five games. Anzhi are coping well with sides around them defensively by keeping it tight and although their goalscoring isn't as good as it needs to be, they still look competent enough to stay in the division this year. They've won two consecutive home games in the Premier League without conceding a goal in either game and that looks unlikely to change today as they host a fairly useless Sibir Novosibirsk side that has recently sold their leader and top goalscorer Medvedev to Rubin Kazan. Anzhi rarely concede at home as it is but without him, Sibir have little chance of changing that record. Sibir have only just returned from a 5-0 drubbing in the Netherlands against Dutch giants PSV Eindhoven and will undoubtedly be tired from the lengthy trip. To play a massive relegation battle against Anzhi upon their return is largely unwelcome and as a result, I expect them to struggle today. Sibir have already lost seven out of eight away games this season, drawing the other game, whilst averaging conceding nearly three goals per game. It's that kind of abject defending that gives me hope in Anzhi scoring a rare goal today and if they do then they should win this game as I just don't see where Sibir's goals are going to come from.

I initially thought that 4/5 was a bit too short for this selection but with the above in mind, I think it's about right and that there should be some value in the home win today.

Verdict: Anzhi Makhachkala to win at 4/5.

Winterthur vs Aarau - home win at 33/20.

This is a risky bet but the odds make it look worthwhile to me. Winterthur had a great campaign in the Challenge League last year and were very nearly promoted as a result. They reached that level due to strong home form with ten wins in fifteen games. They averaged scoring over two goals per home game and were generally a very difficult side to play against. However, something of a baptism of fire this season fixture-wise has left Winterthur floundering as they suffered three consecutive defeats at the start of the season. However, those defeats were at promotion favourites Lausanne Sports, at home to a talented Kriens, and away against a potent Biel-Bienne so it's not the most unforgivable of runs. Since then, Winterthur have woken up and won two consecutive games against a very good Servette side and at a decent Yverdon Sport side so momentum favours them today, which is a very dangerous plus for an under-achieving but talented Winterthur side that really shouldn't be underestimated here. Winterthur lost Nigerian starlet Emeghara and Swiss midfielder Lenjani to Grasshoppers Zurich over the summer but they've kept hold of Bieli, who was responsible for half of their lethal Emeghara-Bieli dual attack last season so they're still a dangerous side this year.

Visitors Aarau aren't the same side that were relgated last year. Financial problems and the the changing of divisions saw a good number of their side leave and be replaced by youngsters and it's shown so far this season with their only impressive displays coming at home. Just look at who they lost in the transfer window though - midfielder Lang (Grasshoppers Zurich), striker Mustafi (Arminia Bielefeld), defener Aquaro (CSKA Sofia), left-back Elmer (Sion), and goalkeeper Benito (Grasshoppers Zurich), just to name a few. All of those players were very much integral members of this Aarau side and although they'll be pleased to have kept hold of Macedonian striker Stojkov (and his Cameroonian striker partner Bengondo), they still have problems in other areas of their side and are far from the complete unit as a result.

With the above in mind, I don't think the hosts should be so generously priced. They're an experienced and able side in this division with a good amount of momentum supporting them today whereas their opponents aren't fully gelled yet and still lack good players in vital areas of their team. Although this game could be a close one, I think Winterthur's price is too generous to ignore tonight.

Verdict: Winterthur to win at 33/20.

Accumulator fodder:

Levski Sofia, APOEL Nicosia, Omonia Nicosia.

Recommended bets:

I don't like any multiples today, strangely - sorry guys!

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today's games, see below!

Bulgarian A PFG:

Rakovski vs Levski Sofia (8) 0-2

Cypriot Division 1:

APOEL Nicosia vs Ermis (8) under 2.5 goals
AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia (8) 1-2

Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:

Brno vs Sparta Prague (4) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score

Danish Superligaen:

OB Odense vs Midtylland (4) 1-1

Finnish Veikkausliiga:

MyPa Anjalankoski vs Haka Valkeakoski (5) 1-1
HJK Helsinki vs IFK Mariehamn (7) 2-0
Tampere United vs Jaro Pietarsaari (6) 1-1

French Ligue 2:

Chateauroux vs Evian Thonon Gaillard (6)
Grenoble Foot vs Le Mans (6)

German Bundesliga 2:

Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Hertha BSC Berlin (7)

Icelandic Urvalsdeild:

KR Reykjavik vs FH Hafnarfjordur (6) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Selfoss vs Valur Reykjavik (5) 2-2

Italian Serie A:

Bologna vs Internazionale (6) under 2.5 goals

Italian Serie B:

Empoli vs Pescara (6) under 2.5 goals

Dutch Eerste Divisie:

Den Bosch vs RKC Waalwijk (7)

Norwegian Eliteserien:

Brann Bergen vs Viking Stavanger (6) 2-2

Portuguese Liga Sagres:

Naval de Maio vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa (6) 1-2

Romanian Liga:

Gloria Bistrita vs Targu Mures (5) 1-0
Victoria Branesti vs Astra Ploiesti (6) 1-1

Russian Premier League:

Anzhi Makhachkala vs Sibir Novosibirsk (6) 1-0

Singaporean S-League:

Albirex Niigata vs Gombak United (6) 1-1
Young Lions vs Balestier Khalsa (6) over 2.5 goals

Spanish Primera Liga:

Atletico Madrid vs Sporting Gijon (6) over 2.5 goals

Swedish Superettan:

Hammarby vs Jonkopings Sodra (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Brage vs Vasby United (7)
Trollhattan vs Syrianska Sodertalje (6) draw no bet

Swiss Challenge League:

Winterthur vs Aarau (6)

Turkish Super Lig:

Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor (6) 0-1

Ukrainian Premier League:

Karpaty Lviv vs Volyn Lutsk (7) 2-1
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk vs Metalurg Donetsk (6) 1-0

Enjoy your free betting tips!