tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24220267026514388582024-10-02T11:55:20.640-04:00Riding the trends in the currency marketsKevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.comBlogger47125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2422026702651438858.post-55708212582685339892010-05-23T23:24:00.000-04:002010-05-23T23:24:13.810-04:00

The Australian Dollar has literally fallen out of bed over the past 3 weeks which makes many people wonder how much lower can this currency go. Well if you look at the above weekly chart of FXA  (Australian Dollar) you will notice a very obvious double top which was confirmed this past week. If you take the height of the double top pattern and subtract it from 85 which was the low, you

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com18tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2422026702651438858.post-11393980178753471252009-09-05T19:16:00.004-04:002009-09-05T19:25:45.605-04:00

I'd like to take a long term view of the British Pound to help put things into perspective. In the above chart you will notice that the rally which began in January of this year has abruptly stopped dead in its tracks at the 170.00 level. What is so significant about the 170 level? Well if you look back a few years you will notice that a major low was made in Novemeber 2005. This low is now

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com44tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2422026702651438858.post-53229744875675461252009-08-29T15:52:00.002-04:002009-08-29T15:55:15.108-04:00

The Australian Dollar broke out of its recent consolidation establishing a new high for the year. The Australian Dollar is one of the strongest currencies over the past few months and is clearly in a strong uptrend.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2422026702651438858.post-30869374660085381542008-11-08T14:36:00.004-05:002008-11-08T14:40:22.306-05:00

The Euro is clearly in a downtrend and has been consolidating forming a bear flag. The Swiss is already trading below last month's low and it looks like the Euro will do the same. If the currencies begin another leg down, I'll post my downside projections for the Euro in the days to come.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com47tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2422026702651438858.post-9525725705237373052008-10-24T19:31:00.004-04:002008-10-24T19:38:40.985-04:00

Exactly one year ago the Canadian dollar was making multi year highs but as you can see in the above chart this currency is now making multi year lows! Over the last four weeks the Canadian dollar has been selling off sharply literally falling out of bed. It looks like a bounce is due which may offer another shorting opportunity if things set up.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2422026702651438858.post-59752548578471679302008-10-06T22:37:00.003-04:002008-10-06T22:46:47.720-04:00

The U.S. Dollar continues to rally making a new high for the year. If you look at the big picture in terms of how far the dollar has rallied, you will see that the greenback is at the 50% retracement level of the 2005 - 2008 bear market.The dollar has good momentum on the upside and I see no resistance nearby. As of now I have no position in the dollar but I'd like to see a nice pullback so I can

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2422026702651438858.post-81952255848305366702008-10-05T00:35:00.003-04:002008-10-05T01:27:48.746-04:00

The British Pound has been selling off rather sharply over the past 2 months but is now approaching a significant area of support. If you measure the rally from July 2001 to the high made in 2007, you will see that we are now at the 50% retracement level. The Pound is also approaching the low that was made in 2005 which turned out to be a major support area. It will be interesting to see how this

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2422026702651438858.post-47628167501348190932008-10-04T17:11:00.005-04:002008-10-04T17:29:00.826-04:00

The Canadian Dollar has been in a bull market for the past 6 years and is now testing a very significant uptrend line. You'll notice in the above weekly chart that the Canadian Dollar has closed slightly below the trendline which may be a sign that further weakness can be expected for this currency.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2422026702651438858.post-28312723039760988812008-10-04T02:58:00.006-04:002008-10-04T03:08:36.443-04:00

Since last July the Japanese Yen has been one of the strongest currencies when compared to the Swiss, Euro and British Pound. Above we have a chart which shows the relationship of the Yen vs. the Euro. You'll notice that the downtrend has been broken. This means that the Yen is now the stronger currency with the Euro being the weaker. The top chart is a weekly chart of the Japanese Yen and in my

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2422026702651438858.post-3554168632072516302008-10-04T01:13:00.002-04:002008-10-04T01:17:46.219-04:00

The Euro has had a significant down move over the past 3 months and is now testing major long-term support. This area of support also coincides with the 50% retracement of the 2005-2006 bull market. I think we may see a bounce in the days to come which means if you are short this market you may want to lower your trailing stops to lock in profits.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2422026702651438858.post-66883556582172631182007-07-28T00:12:00.001-04:002007-07-28T00:12:50.906-04:00

Well folks, I'm going to be taking a break from blogging. I'll be doing a little bit of traveling and I'm also going to be involved in some other projects which I am really excited about. I'm not sure exactly when I will be back but figure around the end of September.Until then my friends, enjoy the rest of the summer.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2422026702651438858.post-88851667764467090992007-07-26T18:19:00.001-04:002007-07-26T18:23:14.175-04:00

Today the Yen had a big move up and is catching up to some of the other currencies.Many of you have emailed me or left comments on this blog suggesting that the Yen may have bottomed. For those of you who saw this coming I must say that was a great call. Nicely done!

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2422026702651438858.post-66199240753730658202007-07-25T19:28:00.001-04:002007-07-25T19:33:13.637-04:00

This morning my trailing stop got hit and I exited the rest of my long position at a profit.On my other blog I posted about the rally the dollar had today so you may want to check it out by clicking here.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2422026702651438858.post-12388203263585020442007-07-24T21:29:00.001-04:002007-07-24T21:34:54.773-04:00

The British Pound was up again today and is clearly one of the strongest currencies.You can see in the above ratio chart of the Pound vs Euro and the Pound vs Swiss that the ratio is making new multi month highs.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2422026702651438858.post-21630220959240054372007-07-23T17:48:00.000-04:002007-07-23T17:53:10.776-04:00

I exited the remainder of my long position today because my trailing stop got hit. This was a very nice trade and I plan on keeping my profits so I am out of the market now.I still have the Euro long and my stop is below last week's low.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2422026702651438858.post-777520784651307572007-07-22T15:22:00.001-04:002007-07-22T18:38:16.263-04:00

On Friday the Japanese Yen rallied above its downtrend line and closed above it.Many of you have been asking me if I have any thoughts on the Yen and all I can say is that I don't see any low risk trades.Maybe the Yen is just playing catch up with the other currencies or maybe this is the beginning of something.I think I'd rather look for a place to short the Yen if anything.If you look in the

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2422026702651438858.post-39209939341349943492007-07-20T21:23:00.000-04:002007-07-20T21:29:46.046-04:00

Over the last two weeks the Euro and the Swiss Franc have been consolidating. I am raising my trailing stops to right below the recent consolidation as seen in the above chart. This has been a great trade for me and I plan on locking in these profits.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2422026702651438858.post-81944697667505511072007-07-18T16:56:00.001-04:002007-07-18T16:59:22.446-04:00

Today the U.S. dollar made new multi year lows as the greenback took out the low from 2004. I exited the remainder of my long position in the British pound and I am still holding 50% of my long position in the Swiss and Euro. I'm going to raise my trailing stops to lock in profits just in case the dollar bounces here.I'll post charts tomorrow of the Swiss and Euro showing where my trailing stops

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2422026702651438858.post-40535142434666092772007-07-17T18:01:00.001-04:002007-07-17T18:05:37.795-04:00

The British Pound had another nice move up today as it continues to be one of the strongest currencies. I exited another 25% of my position this afternoon into this up move. I am now left holding one quarter of my original long position.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2422026702651438858.post-2715589038294265552007-07-16T18:24:00.001-04:002007-07-16T18:29:57.447-04:00

Many of you have sent me emails asking if the Japanese yen has bottomed and in my opinion I just don't see it.Technically the trend is still down and the Yen is also the weakest currency compared to the Swiss, B-Pound and Euro. I will say that the yen is chipping away at resistance but I see no reason to buy it. If the Yen has truly bottomed, there will be plenty of time to buy the pullbacks but

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2422026702651438858.post-32330238470627289882007-07-12T16:25:00.000-04:002007-07-12T16:29:04.151-04:00

Above is a weekly chart of the U.S. Dollar and as you can see the dollar is testing the low from 2004. In my opinion I think that low will be taken out based on the fact that the Euro is already above it's high from 2004 and so is the British Pound.I am long the Swiss, B-Pound and Euro and I took profits yesterday on half my position.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2422026702651438858.post-77956353605807389152007-07-11T16:05:00.000-04:002007-07-11T16:11:51.003-04:00

If you read my posts yesterday you probably know what I did today in the forex market. The Swiss Franc made a new year high which was my minimum profit objective. I took profits on all my currencies here. I am now left holding about 50% of my original long position in the Swiss, Euro and B-Pound.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2422026702651438858.post-64699761170709645652007-07-10T16:22:00.000-04:002007-07-10T17:02:11.065-04:00

The Swiss Franc also had a nice move today to the upside with the rest of the foreign currencies. I am long and I'm looking for this currency to at least test the year high where I will probably take some profits in the Swiss as well as the Euro.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2422026702651438858.post-20807371485414207072007-07-10T16:18:00.000-04:002007-07-10T16:20:10.221-04:00

Today the Euro had a nice move to the upside as it made new multi year highs. I am long the Euro and I will look to take some profits into this upmove.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2422026702651438858.post-11028918217441666272007-07-10T16:10:00.000-04:002007-07-10T16:16:00.334-04:00

As you know I have a heavy long position in the British Pound and today it moved to new highs for the year... I scaled out of a third of my long position here just to book some profits. This trade is my 2nd most profitable trade of the year so I'm taking some money off the table.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com0