The Friendly Confines

I don't always just complain

2007-08-22T14:49:00.000-05:00

I didn't know about this, but I think that this is a development that in five to ten years is going to provide us all with enough humor to keep us chuckling from April until October:

In recent weeks, Milledge has bonded with new Mets coach Rickey Henderson and hit his way back to prominence.

"How would you say you played tonight?"
"Lastings thinks that Lastings is the greatest. Rickey was Rickey, and Lastings owes Rickey, but Lastings is Lastings. Next question."

A "Winning" Argument

2007-08-20T13:16:00.000-05:00

Some of you readers may know that I am a political animal as well as a baseball fan, and I spend some time in the 'blogosphere' (I really hate that term). Recently there have been some attacks by the MSM (mainstream media) on political bloggers, implying they do not have the accountability that reporters have. The response of the political bloggers was that until the MSM stops screwing up reporting and ignoring actual facts in place of (often wrongheaded) conventional wisdom, they're going to hold their feet to the fire, and that they aren't going away even if the MSM starts getting stories right.

This problem is not limited to news or political reporting. It happens just as much, if not more, in the world of baseball. Profiling the tightening AL Cy Young race was a great idea, but does anyone else see anything wrong with the analysis presented here (emphasis mine)?

1. Beckett, Red Sox (15-5, 3.15): Still tied for the league lead in wins despite a stay on the DL. His team is on its way to the playoffs, giving him the slightest of nods over Bedard, Santana and Haren, at least on my ballot.

2. Bedard, Orioles (12-4, 2.98): The league's best pitcher the past two months hasn't lost in 12 starts (he's 8-0 in that time). He's the only pitcher in the majors with 200-plus strikeouts.

3. Santana, Twins (13-9, 2.88): He's the only contender among the starters who doesn't have an overwhelming won-loss record, although he's allowed three earned runs or fewer in six of his past seven defeats. Still second in Ks, fourth in ERA., first in Q rating.

4. Haren, A's (13-4, 2.54): League-leading ERA and excellent record for losing team probably makes him the slight favorite in the eyes of many, but he's allowed 11 unearned runs to make the ERA a tad deceiving, toils in a pitchers' park and is working without the pressure of Beckett.

I'm not sure I agree with this ranking 100%, but that's not the reason I've bolded selections from this list. If we're going to debate who the best pitcher in the AL is, can't we use a more meaningful metric than wins? I thought even laggards like ESPN had finally started to realize that wins are a hugely flawed method for measuring a pitcher, but it looks like it took Sports Illustrated to prove me wrong. No one who is being paid to write about baseball should be allowed to give such a pathetic analysis of this race. Basic journalistic standards should push the writer to be aware of and include such basic pitcher metrics as K/9, K/BB, and FIP, among others.

In two minutes I was able to uncover the following:

C.C. Sabathia has the highest K/BB of any starter in the AL, 6.22, higher than the only reliever on the SI list, J.J. Putz (5.25, who actually ranks just behind Joe Nathan in this stat) and higher than the number one pick, Josh Becket (4.93).

Bedard, no surprise, has the best K/9 (11.02) of the group, followed by Santana (9.82) and Putz (9.78) None of the others are even in the top 40, and Bedard and Santana are the top 2 starters on the list.

Putz has an amazing BAA of .146, followed by Bedard at .210 and Santana at .214. None of the others make the top 40.

Now, don't those numbers muddy the waters a bit? Not quite so easy to hand the trophy to "Mr. 15 & 5?" Surprisingly, these numbers have me leaning towards Bedard, which is not what I would have expected before my little sabermetric excursion. We need to look at these numbers, lest we repeat the travesty of the 2005 Cy Young. Just a reminder for all you out there:

B. Colon - 3.48 ERA, 157 K
J. Santana - 2.87 ERA, 238 K

Colon won the Cy Young, and Santana inexplicably finished 3rd in balloting. Why? Santana was 'only' 16-7, Colon was 21-8, pitching for a playoff team. More wins that probably came from the better hitting, playoff-bound Angels. So please, mainstream sportswriters, learn a little something about what you're writing about. You might even enjoy it.

I know I will, if it ever happens.

An Unorthodox Division lead

2007-08-13T12:36:00.000-05:00

The D-backs are certainly playing some great baseball as of late, but a deeper look into their numbers reveals a disturbing statistic - this team has scored fewer runs than they've allowed. 502 scored, 523 allowed. Of all the teams in the division, they are most similar (based on these numbers) to the Giants. The Rockies, Dodgers and Padres all have positive differentials, in some cases substantial ones. Unless this is a trend from the beginning of the season, I don't see these baby-backs outlasting the Padres. Well, I guess that's why they play the games.

Notes from the Net - 6/5/2007

2007-06-05T11:25:00.000-05:00

I've added SportLine to my regular sports reading, and I've been quite pleased with it. It fills a hole in my baseball reading that I've been missing more and more as ESPN attempts to lock down their site one article and one writer at a time. Sure, I'll continue to use the WWL for player stats (thanks largely to their brilliant splits) for the current year, and Baseball Reference for almost any other stats, but the player news replicates the sort of Gammons columns I used to be able to read.

One very interesting note was that the A's are pondering using Rich Harden as a reliever. Now, this sort of thing has already been done in the majors once this year with mixed results (Myers in Philly), but this is an idea I've heard floated once before. I remember an article on the Hardball Times from a ways back about swapping Harden with one of the relief men - but as usual I can't find the article since the search function for HBT is almost useless. This is a tangent, but it is a travesty that a site with the quality information and analysis of Hardball Times doesn't tag each and every one of their pages in a comprehensive manner. In these heady days of Web 2.0 (god I hate that phrase) it's a joke that it's not easier to use the archives at a site that is at the bedrock of the baseball net.

Anyway, the Harden move will be complicated by the fact that middle relievers, even great ones, don't make what starters do. Street is still considered the closer for the team, and injury risk closers don't fetch a lot on the market. Considering that Harden won't have a real shot at the closer job, his bottom line alone would lead him to oppose the move. However, for a pitcher that's never reached 190 innings in a season and is a regular on the DL, the chance to improve his longevity in the game, coupled with a possible trade of a resurgent Street in the offseason, could pave the way for him to move to the pen. A friend of mine has Myers in our fantasy league and is convinced that the new stress of pitching back-to-back days as a set-up man and then as closer is to blame for his injury, and I tend to agree with him. Certain pitchers seem to handle certain roles differently, so this could be just what he needs.

Or, it could just be the devious A's trying to plug their holes until the pen gets healthy. Both sound like A's thinking to me.

The Inevitable

2007-05-16T15:00:00.000-05:00

Sorry folks, the legislative session has derailed my schedule as of late. But I had to draw your attention to this story from the Onion.

"I mean, three weeks ago it was still Foghat references and growling out the 'R' on 'the Raiders,' and now this."

Funniest part of the article, the idea of Berman reading. Priceless.

The Worldwide Leader is playing catch-up

2007-05-09T09:51:00.000-05:00

Last year, FSN decided to start producing a highlight show to compete with SportsCenter. At the time I thought it was an interesting idea at best, and I remember at least one article comparing the real-life situation to one of my favorite shows of all time, Sports Night, which was about a witty, up-and-coming highlight program on a fictional cable network. The parallels are obvious.

I didn't watch the show much at first, but for the last two months or so, I've become increasingly disappointed by SC. They have moved further and further from providing highlights, or meaningful analysis and have devoted countless segments to their own original reporting. While this was acceptable in the sports doldrum that lasts from the day after the Super Bowl until Opening Day, it is inexcusable now. Over the last few weeks, I have seen more content on the NFL draft, and recently, college football programs that I have on baseball.

By contrast, FSN Final Score provides all highlights and recaps - no need for clever or touching segments. This is sports, I want to see the scores, and if the analysts on TV are progressively getting dumber (see Baseball Tonight) then I don't care what they even think about the games.

However, the most interesting development in this competition has only come in the last few weeks. Final Score had a unique look in contrast to SC; the video only takes up 80 percent of the screen. A ticker is included at the bottom of the screen, a la SC, but along the right margin Final Score displays their upcoming segments, and puts a title on top of the screen. The result is losing a few inches on each side of the screen, but having greater awareness about what is coming next. This has been their style from the first days of the show, and only changes to full screen when there is a death in the sporting world.

SportsCenter has adopted (some might say ripped off) this style of presentation from Final Score. They now list upcoming stories on the right margin of the screen in identical fashion to the FSN upstart. Perhaps the best thing for a stagnant behemoth like SC is to get pushed around and be forced to adapt, but I'd really rather that they used more creative tactics than plagiarism.

Bravo WWL, bravo.

Rivera Blows Another

2007-05-08T09:29:00.000-05:00

Sure, this isn't actually a blown save, but it's a loss in yet another save situation for Rivera. 1-3, 3 saves in 5 opportunities, and an ERA that is still over 8. Watching a proven veteran implode like this might have put the Yankees off signing a 44 year old, but clearly that doesn't scare them. It's amazing what limitless ego and money co do for an organization.

Close the book?

2007-04-23T09:25:00.000-05:00

Anyone who was watching Friday's Yankees / Red Sox game was thinking the same thing: Is Mariano Rivera done?

I know this season is a small sample size, but his BAA is over .280 and his ERA is north of 8. The Red Sox manhandled him when he came in to keep the win intact, and when Marco Scutaro takes you deep in the ninth, you should be worried.

His line thus far for the season: 1-2, 8.44 ERA, 0 SV, 2 BS

Just as a point of comparison, his career splits show him with a 2.38 ERA in March and April, 10 and 9, 53 saves and only 7 HR.

This season is a warning sign. Mariano can't be un-hittable forever, and if he turns out no better than anyone else in the Yankees pen, they are going to have a miserable season unless the rotation takes a huge step forward. This year could be the collapse of the dynasty.

And someone in the stands yelled POLO!!

2007-04-16T11:06:00.000-05:00

I watched the first 7 innings or so of the A's - Yankees game yesterday and was slightly bummed that the bullpen came in and gave up the lead. Given that the A's don't exactly have the most potent offense, I assumed the game was over. I would have finished watching the game if I hadn't needed to leave, so I missed what happened. The game was over, Rivera was in, bottom of the ninth, two out, and it was all up to Marco Scutaro. He crushed an 0-2 (0-2 people) cut fastball, sending it flying into the left field foul pole.

"This has to be in the top two," Scutaro said. "Especially being against Mariano, it was very special.

Here's a little visual representation of how the game looked, courtesy of Fangraphs. One more win puts the A's at .500, and I still like them to be in competition for the division down to the last day of the season.

Opening Day Blunders

2007-04-04T09:10:00.000-05:00

Even if we ignore the poor starts put up by some of the aces on opening day, and the mayor of Cincinnati getting ejected (in jest) before the Reds opener even started, it was a rusty few days for major league clubs. Two former MVPs had more than their share of trouble just running the bases.

2006 AL MVP Justin Morneau -

In the fourth inning, when Morneau delivered his second hit of the game, he advanced to second on a Rondell White walk. But when Jeff Cirillo delivered a hard-hit single to right, Morneau got waved all the way home and got called out at the plate. Morneau then was thrown out at second in the fifth inning when he tried to stretch a single into a double, and then got beat on ground ball to first in the seventh. Stopping just one base short of the running cycle, Morneau joked that he knows one thing hasn't changed.

"At least we know I didn't get any faster over the offseason," Morneau said with a laugh.

1990, 1992, 1993, 2001-2004 NL MVP Barry Bonds -

Bonds bounced a single into left field against the infield shift, then stole second and was thrown out at home when he tried to score on San Diego shortstop Khalil Greene's wild throw past first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez recovered the ball quickly and Bonds was such an easy out at the plate that he didn't even bother sliding.

Giants third base coach Tim Flannery said Bonds made the decision to go home because he could see the ball in front of him and gauge his chances himself.

"Joey Amalfitano taught me a great lesson,'' Flannery said. "When the ball is in front of a player like that, just pat him on the back and say, 'You're making $10 million a year and I'm making $60,000. You make the decision.'"

I didn't get to see the Barry gaffe, but the Justin Morneau ones were particularly amusing, especially when he tried to bowl over the catcher when thrown out at home. Hopefully these two will prove that they know how to run the bases before season's end.

P.S. - While I'm no longer the Barry defender and less and less the Barry apologist, Jim Caple made an interesting comment in his article on the poor Giants opener.
The Giants opened their 50th season in San Francisco on Tuesday and they introduced their All-Stars from that half-century during a long pregame ceremony. As Orlando Cepeda, Gaylord Perry, Juan Marichal, Willie McCovey, Willie Mays -- all Hall of Famers -- and others took the field, you couldn't help but wonder why this team hasn't won a World Series since moving here in 1958.

Perry's introduction also brought up another thought: Why are all the talk show blowhards and self-righteous columnists so quick to condemn Barry Bonds for "ruining'' the game when an admitted cheater is in the Hall of Fame and no one questions it? If it was all right for Perry to grease his way to 300 wins and Cooperstown, why do we hold Barry to a different standard? Why is one considered mere gamesmanship and the other a threat to civilized society? That's something for you to consider as the Great Home Run Chase resumes.

At this point, even I admit that there is a significant difference between steroid use and doctoring a ball, but both are brazen, straightforward forms of cheating. Whether or not you agree with him, it's a point worth considering.

Withdrawal

2007-02-07T12:41:00.000-06:00

Well folks, I've been bad. There's no other way to put it. Not the cool Michael Jackson (circa 1987) "Bad." I mean the good-golly-miss-Molly I've been too busy to get down a post in far too long. I can offer a brief recap of my life over the last few months, so as to provide a half-assed explanation as to my absence.

First, I spent two months interning in Congress before the elections. This was tremendously interesting and provided me a chance to see the Nats play at RFK. The game itself was one of the last home games of the year, and the Phillies were in town and still in the playoff hunt. The game became tremendously once I realized that the Nationals pitchers had no interest whatsoever in helping Ryan Howard pad his stats, and walked him intentionally several times in extra innings. It was the first time in recent memory that I left a game before it concluded, but the Metro was shutting down, and RFK Stadium is not in the safest part of Washington DC.

Following this, I returned for some aggressive campaigning before Election Day, and we did very, very well. Nationally, I was thrilled, although locally there were a few (huge) disappointments. To all of the rest of you in the United States, Michele Bachmann is in no way representative of Minnesota. Usually I'd be the first to rip this frigid state (I'm a California native), but it is a very nice place and that woman is seven different kinds of crazy.

After the elections wound down, I went job searching, which lasted until the Friday before Christmas. Since then, I've been at my new job and very busy.

So, in a nutshell, DC - Elections - Job stuff - sorry.

Now, on to other things. While logically, the worst day for baseball fans should fall in the week after the World Series, for me, it's right about now. The NFL fanfare is finally finished, and we're still too damn far away from full spring training for my tastes. We won't see squad games for another month at the earliest. This is a doldrums of sporting interest, with nothing but the NHL and NBA to hold my interest. All the winter meeting deals are done, and there really won't be anything new in baseball for a month, or maybe two.

I'll admit, I'm a baseball junkie. I need a good six month fix to survive the rest of the year. I personally can't wait for the days when ESPN will start televising the Caribbean Series, and I think that the WBC should be held every two. But the point is, I need baseball, and I cannot wait for the season to get here.

Pitchers and catchers in 6 days, though. A little ray of hope for us all.

Forty Two

2006-11-14T06:58:00.000-06:00

Economics can't account for the value of certian things. There really is a pricelessness that can be applied to certian objects, and how many millions do we hit before the word 'absurd' begins to ring in everyone's ears? But is a new pitch really priceless?

Barry Zito is going to be paid a lot of money by someone; so is Jason Schmidt. Other no name starters are going to have their value ratcheted up and feel thankful to the worst man in baseball (Boras). But the bid the Red Sox put in to secure negotiating rights with Daisuke Matsuzaka is nothing short of insane. There isn't a starter out there worth twenty million a year, and very few starters are healthy enough or talented enough to justify a five plus year investment, but that's just the spot Red Sox have pyt themselves in, if they are truly intent on signing the pitcher. I fall more on the side that this was an attempt to outflank the Yankees and keep them from signing the gyroballer.

The one thing that I can say with certianty is this; I can't imagine a more interesting way to really kick off the dealing of the winter months. Stay tuned, sports fans.

Contest Extended!

2006-08-24T20:28:00.000-05:00

Okay, maybe the questions were a little too hard. Tell you what, just answer one of them. Email me your answers and address, and on Labor Day I'll get around to drawing winners.

Power Potential: An introduction

2006-08-18T13:02:00.000-05:00

While doing research for the Abreu trade article, I pored over salary numbers and payrolls, and a few things jumped out at me. I bounced over to the contracts on the Giants page, and was stunned by the ammount of money that Bonds, Alou, Finley and Durham were making. Their contracts for this year according to ESPN, 20, 7.45, 7 and 7 million respectively, for a total of 41.45 million. With Schmidt as a free agent at the end of this season, that gives the Giants' a payroll next year of around 40 million. Sabean might be dumb enough to pick up Finley's option for 7, and Durham might exercise his player option, but with all these contracts coming off the books, the Giants are going to have a tremendous ammount of flexibility.

The idea here isn't to predict which players teams will resign, but to look at their finance / talent position going into next season.

I was also looking at the Twins payroll and roster. Radke's 9 million will be gone, along with Hunter's 10.75. Stewart is gone for 6.5; several other players have options that may or may not be picked up. This will leave the Twins with only about 40 million committed, although, like the Giants some of this will disappear as contracts ramp up. The point remains that the Twins will also have a lot or room to redefine their team this winter.

The other advantage these teams both have is that they have some good young players coming along, especially in the rotation.

The Twins and Giants will provide the two archetypes for this series, big market teams that have a solid core and many millions to spend, and smaller market teams with a lot of cheap, young talent who clear some big contracts.

I'll profile the outlook for such teams in this series, so keep you eyes peeled for who's got power potential.

World Series DVD giveaway

2006-08-10T08:24:00.001-05:00

The nice folks over at A & E are promoting a new line of DVDs, which feature highlights from about the last 200 years (maybe I'm exagerating a little) worth of World Series'. I was sent the one for the 1954 NY Giants vs the Cleveland Indians, which I've linked here. This features arguably the most famous defensive play of all time, "The Catch" by Willie Mays.

Their main page can be found here, and they really do have a tremendous number of these things, going all the way back to 1943.

The reason I mention all this is that I've been given 3 DVDs to give away to my faithful readers. So, we're going to have a trivia contest. There are three questions, and I'll draw randomly among those who get them all right.

What is the Royals record in World Series games?

In Game 7 of the 2001 World Series, what was the Win Expectancy of the Diamondbacks starting off the 9th inning?

Pre-divisional play (which began in 1995), what is the 4 game sweep in the World Series that has lasted the longest, and why?

Either put these answers in the comments for this post, or send an email to me through blogger. The contest will run until the 20th of August, unless there are too few correct answers. So get cracking, and win yourself some baseball goodness.

The Revolution will be SABRized (except it's not really a revolution)

2006-08-09T11:24:00.000-05:00

I had a long conversation last night about a couple of issues raised by my last post, and I want to put a couple of things down. Conversations are great opportunities for exchanging ideas, but rarely feature efficient, surgical uses of language.

My last post was spurred by my surprise at how much advanced baseball analysis had begun to infiltrate mianstream media, especially in the form of Expected W-L on the MLB.com site. This is a website that has been in existence for over a decade, is officially maintained by, you know, baseball and decided at the begining of the season to include this stat in their official categories (although you do have to turn the option on).

Now, I was happy about this, and I think all baseball fans should be. This metric gives us all a better understanding of the game, and I think it is therefore a good thing. But, unfortunately, I used the acronym SABR in my post, which among some people in the baseball community has become a bad word ... hell, almost blashpemy.

I'm going to take this slow, so as to be completely clear. SABR, as in SABRmetric (sabermetric), has the following meaning:

The Society of American Baseball Researchers. Keep this in mind as you read along.

Last night, our discussion centered around the difference of opinion on this community. A friend told me that he views this community as incredibly arrogant, and that he feels that their work "takes the fun out of baseball." I didn't agree with that.

I disagreed with a number of things about his arguments.

Firstly, most of the baseball community is quite arrogant. Ozzie Guillen, George Steinbrenner, Mike Scioscia back when we was really winning, Barry Bonds, Ricky Henderson, Roger Clemens, David Wells, A-Rod, Jeter, Curt Schilling, Dusty Baker, Tony LaRussa just to name a very few. Chances are you don't have to think very hard to come up with instances where these men insisted they were right to the point of arrogance, or to come up with another dozen names. Competitive sports are going to draw competitive people, and to single out a single group for arrogance is like singling out a Royals player for incompetence; they're all at fault.

Furthermore, SABR is not what most people think it is, which is why it kind of pisses me off to hear blanket statements about a group that's actually trying to grow baseball in a time where public distrust of the sport is dangerously high, African-Americans are leaving in droves, and postseason viewership continues to drop. SABR actually does a number of wonderful things for the game.

Now, I know I'm not supposed to ever use wikipedia as a source, but there's not a traditional encyclopedia or source I can go to, so I've got no other choice. From the SABR page on wikipedia:

The Society for American Baseball Research was established in Cooperstown, New York, in August of 1971. The Society's mission is to foster the research and dissemination of the history and record of baseball while generating interest in the game.
Members include Bill James and Rob Neyer. SABR, which is pronounced "saber" and whose acronym led to the creation of the word sabermetrics (mathematical tools to analyze baseball), is about much more than statistics.
In fact, only a minority of members pursue "number crunching" research. Rather, SABR offers a community of fans organized in two ways. Research Committees study a particular issue. Regional Chapters are for members in geographic proximity. They are frequently named after baseball personalities relevant to the region.

So sabermetrics is far different than what most people would believe. However, as a statistical discipline it is imperative to get this point across. It is the application of the scientific method to baseball. That way, we don't believe the baseball equivalent of mice being bred from dirty piles of rags in corners.

Secondly, anyone who ever mentions the word "sabermetrics" is immediately asked about "Moneyball." This is the law of firsts, the idea that the first product, idea, or book that identifies a unique product or idea is tied into it with unbreakable bonds. This is why in some places you can go to a restaurant, order a "Coke" and then when you're asked what you want, you order a Sprite, or Root Beer, or something else that is clearly not a Coke, or even a Cola. This is because Coke as the first widespread soda (pop, whatever) with widespread recognition. Moneyball has done this to sabermetrics, to the point that it has become impossible for some to seperate the two in their minds. Let me make this clear, because in some quarters this is still misunderstood. Sabermetrics does not automatically suppose that OBP is the most important stat, that speed is useless, nor does it suggest that all coaches and scouts are deranged. It is, like I said, just the collection and analysis of statistics, leaning heavily on resources such as Retrosheet and Baseball Reference.

This leads into my third point. For me, a greater understanding of the game through stastics doesn't diminish the 'magic' around the game at all. The steroid scandal, yes, the White Sox winning a World Series, yes, but understanding that OBP correlates better with scoring runs than SLG, no. Comparing Milwaukee attendance in their new park to the Twins over that time, controling for variables and concluding that the Twins can expect a huge bump in attendance, given how much higher their winning percentage is, no. Investigating how a steal affects late and close games by using the Win Expectancy calculator, no. All of those things enhance my love of the game, and pull me deeper in.

Yes, sometimes these studies contradict common baseball knowledge, but why should baseball be immune to criticism if it can be proved that it is wrong? Honestly, that too close to the way the adminstration treats the press for me. "Even if we're wrong, you can't criticize, because you're tarnishing a great institution." If we truly believe in our great institutions, then we must hold them to high standards of honesty and conduct, and by giving dumb managers and commentators a pass, we let bad information circulate about the game we love (like the importance of having an pitcher that "knows how to win").

In the end, I took all of this a bit personally, because while I am not an official member of SABR, I've felt a certian affinity for people who are trying to find new and interesting ways to look at baseball, and who may get carried away in their love of the game but always have their hearts in the right places. Yes, at times the style of presentation can be a bit abrasive, and sometimes it appears that they want to tear down tradition, but I think their contribution far outweighs any cost they might bring. Besides, think of all the raidcal changes to baseball in the last fifty years: interleague play, the wild-card, weight rooms, online radio and TV broadcasts, the DH, 73 homeruns, the 4 then 6 divisions, steroid worries, expansion teams, mound distance and probably a lot of others I'm too young to remember.

Sabermetrics isn't just something else the game has to weather, it's a community that is going to do whatever they can to make the game thrive, and try to educate us a bit along the way. This is all just my opinion, which is too bad because I'd love some statistics to back this up (just the SABR in me, I guess).

The Revolution will be SABRized

2006-08-08T08:38:00.000-05:00

We've seen a lot of changes in baseball media this year. ESPN is down two in their broadcast crew, and has brought in a circus side show of replacements. They've also revamped their graphics, lost rights to postseason series and decided not to repair robotic Joe Morgan. But today, I'm not going to talk about ESPN.

When Moneyball was published in 2003, it opened the eyes of a lot of baseball fans. I'd had some idea of what was going on, but the only reason was that I was in Oakland in the years previous. I'd seen what Beane was doing, and it was clear he was doing it for cheap. But at the time, I'm not sure I even knew what SABR stood for. I didn't even own a copy of Baseball Prospectus until this winter.

The internet has been a wonderful source for a poor college student (now poor government / political employee) to get information I would otherwise never come across. I've discovered statistics based on math that's too complicated for me that give a whole new meaning to understanding baseball.

The only problem has been how slow major news outlets and media sources have been to adopt these measures. We're finally seeing AVG / OBP / SLG become more common than AVG - HR - RBI, but for the most part, things like VORP, or DER, or MLV have fallen on deaf ears. Mainstream media is proving that they have to be dragged kicking and screaming into the 21st century when it comes to baseball.

Last year, when I wanted to know the Pythagorean Win-Loss numbers for a team, I had to compute it myself with data from ESPN's league page. I've been meaning to mention this for quite awhile, but you can now find it here, at the official Major League Baseball website.

Sure, it's a simple formula, and Runs Scored and Runs Allowed have been numbers that mainstream analysts have used for years, but the use of this statistic is a glimmer of hope that we won't have to cling to the old ways in baseball. Someday, we might all be able to talk about how truly, truly awful Derek Jeter's fielding is, and finally have a way to prove it beyond the shadow of a doubt. It won't be the old baseball way of anecdote and error totals, but range factor, and all the other various deffensive ratings dreamed up by people with advanced statistics degrees and a love of baseball.

The Revolution is coming, and it will be SABRized.

Philly Blues

2006-08-03T11:50:00.000-05:00

The blues (as the name suggests) are always sad songs. But it would be incorrect to assume that everyone signing the blues is depressed. The beauty of blues is that you can express yourself, and try to move past the pain of your life.

My second-grade psychoanalysis isn't intended to expose shortcomings in my formal education, but to serve as a template for this post. While I agree with a lot of what was said on the Abreu / Lidle for junk trade at the Confines, I've thought about it, read a number of articles on both sides, and put together an opinion on the matter.

Here's a few facts to set the table

Bobby Abreu's 2006 salary: 13.6 million

Bobby Abreu's 2007 salary: 15.5 million

Bobby Abreu's 2008 option: 16 million

Phillies 2006 payroll without Abreu: 87 million

From an ESPN article published today

Abreu, who had a full no-trade clause, told the Phillies he would be interested in waiving it only for the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox and Angels

When Gillick talks about the importance of "payroll flexibility," he must quietly lament the burdensome contracts negotiated by his predecessor, Ed Wade ... Burrell has a full no-trade clause and is owed $27 million in 2007 and 2008 combined

So the situation is this, pre-trade. The Phillies are a mid-market team with a ballooning payroll. They want trade Abreu and cash in with prospects. We all know that. But it's a little more interesting than that. There's only four teams he's gonna go to. We know what happened with the Yankees. So now we have three questions left for each team.

Do they really want Abreu (or were they just trying to drive the price up)?

Can they afford him?

What would they offer?

First, I'll take the Angels. Their scrappy, small ball character has devolved a bit since their heyday in 2002. They seem to be a team without any philosophy on how to win. That being said, their outfield is old and expensive, so they definitely want a dependable power hitter.

Unlike so many other years, the Mets weren't making desperate deals at the deadline to bolster their chances for the NL Wild Card. Beltran has been a monster with a 1.027 OPS. Chavez and Floyd haven't been great, but the Mets are trying to give Lastings Milledge opportunities to play, so an extra outfielder might meana decrease in playing time. Furthermore, the Mets have held onto their young talent as of late, perhaps learning a lesson from the disastrous Kazmir trade. The Mets are playing well, and decided not to mess with their team at the deadline. Given Floyd's glove and the cost in both prospects and money, the Mets had mild interest at best.

The Red Sox were probably more interested in Abreu to keep him from going to the Yankees than to actually sign him. Crisp has been a huge dissapointment, but a lot of his diminished performance can be attributed to injury. Trot Nixon and Willy Mo Pena have platooned quite well, however, and I'm sure that the Red Sox have no interest in pushing any higher into salary cap territory. Would they like to deny the Yankees a fresh outfielder? Of course, but he's too damn expensive for that. What does Nixon's 7.5 million pay for? For a second DH, behind David Ortiz? True, they could have sent back Crisp, but his stock is about as low as it can get, especially with a contract that rachets up a million or so a year to an 8 million 2010 option. He might be a steal, but he looks like a risk after this half season. Manny and Papi are tearing the cover off the ball, but in a tight division race, Abreu looks a lot better than he otherwise would.

So from this point on, we're going to discount the Mets. I don't think there's any world where what they get from Abreu is what they'd have to give up to get him, and what they'd have to pay.

So now we have to see if the Angels and Red Sox could reasonably afford the added 15 or so million a year. This would put the Red Sox dangerously close to the limit for 2006, while the Angels would be a good 15 million under. Forbes published a list in 2005 of the financial standings of all 30 teams. It's worth noting the five biggest deficits in terms of operating income:

New York Yankees -37.1

LA Angels of Anaheim -30.0

Arizona Diamondbacks -18.7

Boston Red Sox -11.3

New York Mets -11.2

Quick accounting tutorial. Operating Income = Gross Profit - Operating Expenses. This deos not include certian taxes or debt, so it's actually a rosier picture than a full profile. It's important to understand that Theo Epstien is a Beane acolyte, and the whole point of Beane's theories is to win while making money. So is Theo going to put another 15 million on the books already knowing where the numbers are? My guess would be no, since he's smart enough to run the stats and see that Abreu is unlikely to net additional millions in revenue.

So this leaves the Angels who already have a 30 million operating deficit. Vladimir Guerrero is signed through 2009, Anderson through 2008, and Colon is on until 2007. Erstad is the fourth largest contract, and it expires at the end of the season, but it's only 8 million coming off the books. The Angels could make this move, but it could well push them to a 40 to 45 million a year operating loss, so it's a tentative interest at best. The Angels are the only team we're dealing with anymore, after concluding that the deal was far too rich for the Red Sox's blood.

By now we've all heard the deal the Angels offered for Tejada, Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar. Santana is believed to be an up-and-coming ace, and Aybar has hit well in the minors for the last few years. So would the Angels have offered this for Abreu?

2006
Tejada - .328 / .380 / .515
Abreu - .282 / .428 / .439

Career
Tejada - .284 / .341 / .480
Abreu - .301 / .412 / .507

Abreu is about 100 point better in OPS, but is two years older than Tejada, and plays in the outfield. Power hitting SS take precedence over OF for even money. Tejada has been first or second in SLG among SS every year but one since 2000 (including this year) so it doesn't get any better than this. I'd say that they come out roughly even, especially given Tejada's reputation as a clubhouse leader. So this is the other deal that the Phillies might have seen: Abreu for Aybar / E. Santana

So after all this muddling about, here's what we come out with. The only other deal on the table would have been from the Angels, and it would have pushed the Angels much further into the red. I'd estimates the chances of an Abreu-to-the-Angels at 25 percent. Every million the Phillies pay, the percentage goes up by 5.

It's been painfully obvious that the Phillies needed to rebuild from the ground up, and chose a new direction for the organization before they're trampled under the Marlins rookies and Mets superstars. Clearing Abreu gives them the chance to move in that direction. Could other trading partners have offered better parts? Yes, but they were less likely to actually pull the trigger on Abreu without a donation from the Phillies -- exactly what they were trying to avoid. This is one of the few cases when I feel that the phrase 'addition by subtraction' should be used.

So the Phillies could have done better, if they'd got lucky. As it was, they had to send off a man who was using them, running around town, and always takin' their last dollar. The thrill was gone, but now those Phillies can move on.

Sounds like blues to me, but it's no sad voice singing.

Ozzie Guillen, Man of Eloquence

2006-07-28T08:55:00.000-05:00

Following a 3 game sweep that pulled the Twins even in the AL Central:

"For the first time in my life, I'm speechless."

Allow me to explain the only two scenarios that could result from such a monumental event.

World Peace ensues. Dancing in the streets, Middle East accords, lion laying down with the lamb, etc, etc. You should try to run up your credit card bills before this happens, as all debt will be forgiven at the price of a hug. Unfortunately, in this new utopian climate, South Park, the Daily Show and other forms of satire will cease to exist.

Chaos engulfs the earth. Without the demented example of Guillen to inspire us all to run in the opposite direction, rioting, mass lawlessness and conflict erupt. Go buy bottled water. Now. And gasoline. If you have access to a castle and moat, now would be the time to use it.

The Twins have become the most exciting team in baseball, and I couldn't be happier. Well, maybe if the A's weren't playing like two pounds of boiled yams. Well, go Twins anyway.

ESPN has a time machine

2006-07-26T09:11:00.000-05:00

And no, I didn't just get ESPN Classic. This is a screen cap from the main MLB page over at the Worldwide Leader.

The only explanation is that ESPN has traveled forwards to Monday, July 25, 2011 and that all these stories are a harbinger of what is to come. It appears that the Yankees will sign a one-year contract extension with A Rod that will explode in controversy mid way through the season.

Most frightening of all is that Joe Morgan will still be conducting chat sessions.

On another tangent, it looks like the other shoe has dropped on the HR story and that the explanation is a sexual harassment charge. I'll leave all the commentary to Deadspin, but it does seem from everything I've read about ESPN anchors, this problem wasn't limited to HR. It could be worse than I would guess, but it seems like HR has been dragging his feet as the network runs itself into the ground. He was one of the few people left who seemed to have a brain left in his head, and maybe this was the excuse they needed to get rid of a malcontent (who was dead right about ESPN).

But now that ESPN has a time machine, it's only a matter of time before they go back and save HR from himself and rescue Peter Gammons from his stroke. They could save the A's from signing Loiaza, but their East Coast Bias is well documented.

Harold hears a WHAT?

2006-07-25T14:29:00.000-05:00

I don't know, maybe he refused to do ads for the phone.

Maybe he called Kruk fat.

Maybe he called the network insane for letting postseason baseball slip through their fingers, and be broadcast by the loathsome Buck and McCarver duo.

But he must have done something.

I'm shocked that ESPN would dump someone so quickly, and without any warning signs. I'm sure over the next few weeks we'll find out the truth. I don't have any sources, so I'm waiting like the rest of you.

It is possible that something good could come out of this. HR could go over to FOX or TBS, or even to FSN if he were desperate. Maybe he'll get involved with a club or a college. I've always talked about how much I like Harold's broadcasting style, and the way he never gets in over his head is an admirable trait that I wish Joe Morgan possessed. BBTN won't be the same without him, and if anyone thinks that keeping Kruk over HR was a good move, they should be lobotomized (unless they already are).

The bad news keeps on coming folks. At this rate, next week I'll be reporting on Pete Rose's new tenure as Major League Manager, and the White Sox trading a bag of balls and a box of frozen steaks for Alfonso Sorriano. Said Bowden, "What, I was hungry?"

Who Broke the F#%*ing Mirror?

2006-07-13T13:03:00.000-05:00

As if rampant steriod speculation weren't bad enough. As if Barry wasn't in danger of being in jail by the end of the season. As if Ozzie Guillen hadn't resigned his contract with the devil (substituting Jim Thome's soul for his own). As if the HGH story was about to blow wide open ...

As if all of these things haven't nearly killed the game of baseball, we get the worst possible news. Ever. Major League Baseball just signed two

seven-year TV deals — starting next year — with Fox and TBS. Fox stays the lead dog, retaining the World Series and one league championship series — down from showing both LCS in its current six-year deal. TBS gets a TV monopoly of all first-round playoff games, which have been aired in current deals by Fox and various cable TV channels, including ESPN.

Anyone who has ever watched a game on TBS or FOX knows that the next 7 years are going to be nigh intolerable. McCarver and Buck 26 times a season, and non-stop in the playoffs? The brain-dead lethargic announcing of the TBS broadcasting crew? If you were going to kill us, MLB, why didn't you just demand that Stephen A Smith and Stuart Scott announce every game?

Is ESPN insane? Really, are these people completely out of their minds? Or are we going to start seeing mini-camp footage in March and more coverage of the inane marathon that is the NBA postseason (IT'S A WINTER SPORT, WHY DOES IT LAST UNTIL JUNE!)

ESPN has the personnel, the channels and the advertising budget (see losses on ESPN DA PHONE!!)to do baseball right. One of the delights of the last few years has been when ESPN covered the first round of the playoffs and I got to listen to Harold Reynolds in the booth. There are many talented anchors on the network, and why ESPN goes out of it's way to promote those that act like jackasses is beyond me. This was a chance for ESPN to take back baseball, show weekly games on ABC with competent, entertaining broadcast crew and bring the national past time back to prominence.

It's days like this I thank god that we can get any game over the internet, and not a single one has Joe Buck or Tim McCarver announcing. Never has the sound of Joe "Billy Bean wrote Moneyball" Morgan's voice sounded so sweet.

Ozzie Guillen, Protector of the Race

2006-06-29T11:37:00.000-05:00

Just when you thought that Ozzie might, might realize the trouble he will be in if he keeps this sort of insane crusade up, when you think someone might have convinced him to shut the hell up long enough to be distracted by the White Sox record, he goes and proves to you that he really hasn't a single shred of sense in his head.

Allow me to quote this article --

Dodgers first base coach Mariano Duncan considered Ozzie Guillen a trailblazer and role model, a Latino who rose through the coaching ranks to become a manager after his playing career ended.

But after Guillen's string of controversial comments this year, Duncan has revised his opinion. And he has a message for the flamboyant Chicago White Sox manager.

"Think before you talk, or you can really hurt yourself and hurt a lot of other people," Duncan said.

"He embarrassed every Latino player, coach and front-office person."

"Ozzie is a hero in his country [Venezuela] and a hero in my country," Duncan said. "We are here in America, where you can speak freely. But you don't say everything that comes to your mind. He has to learn to slow down a little bit. You have to learn how to close your mouth.

"Baseball needs people like Ozzie Guillen. He motivates people. He's a smart guy. But he's got to be smarter than that."

I include all this text to give you the full flavor of Duncan's comments. Sharp, but not inflamatory; harsh, but not wrong, and meant in genuine kindness. Now you all know I'm an old school Giants fan, and that I have trouble feeling for the Dodgers (although the addition of Nomar may be turning me into a softie). But this is great advice for anyone in any walk of life. We all, at times, react too quickly and make fools of ourselves. Hopefully we're big enough to appologize, and to try to learn from our mistakes.

But Ozzie Guillen?

"Mariano Duncan never will be a big-league manager and not because I ruined it for him, [but] because if Mariano Duncan thinks being a manager is making out the lineup and changing pitchers, he is real wrong," Guillen said.

"I opened a lot of doors for Latino managers, a lot, because of the way I am, things that happened in my career as a player, coach and manager.

"I think Mariano Duncan should be the last person that should have an opinion about it, because maybe that will be an excuse for him if he doesn't make it [as] a big-league manager."

Did he open doors; yes, a few that had already been loosened, or opened and forgotten by Felipe Alou, and Tony Pena. These men know that winning, or losing, with class and respect were the real ways to open doors. Acting like a spoiled child with no sense of right and wrong whatsoever does not open doors, no matter if you win 162 games a season.

But let's investigate the most ludicrous part of Guillen's statement: "I opened a lot of doors ... because of ... things that happened in my career as a player."

Really. Is that so? I can only think of one active player, offhand, that your playing career made possible.

Guess who?

Albert Pujols? Not exactly.

Alex Rodriguez? Wrong division.

Jose Contreras? Maybe as a manager. Right city, wrong league.

How about Neifi Perez?

Keep in mind folks, that Ozzie Guillen is one of the absolute worst hitters of all-time. Number 8, Worst All-Time Runs Created Above Average. The idea that Guillen's playing career helped any of his countrymen, or any Latinos, in baseball is demented. If anything, a Latino who played the way Ozzie did would only slam doors in the faces of talented Latinos.

Let's make sure that whenever Ozzie retires (or gets run out of the sport), the whole city of Chicago get together to throw him a tickertape parade. But then Neife Perez should be the worst hitter in the history of baseball. We'll all know who to thank, Ozzie.

Get Well Card

2006-06-28T10:35:00.000-05:00

Everyone who cares about the sport of baseball already know this, and I'm sure I don't have anything original to say on the matter, but this is maybe the worst thing that could happen to baseball.

I took a hiatus from baseball during high school, in the period that the Yankees ruled the Earth. The Yankee dominance was the major reason for this, as was the general futility of my old hometown teams, the A's and Giants. When I came back around, Gammons was one of the regulars on Baseball Tonight, and I remember enjoying his performance immensely. He has made so many people on that program look so bad; his talent, wit and wisdom have outshone any person they've ever had in the studio. I know I've never met him, but I've always thought of him as a friend of mine. Best wishes Peter, and get well soon.

Ozzie Guillen, Lord of Tact

2006-06-22T11:16:00.000-05:00

I don't even have the energy to comment on anything this stupid. See here

Well, I lied, I do have the energy. Why do we put up with this? Why do we give a man who responds in profanity laced sexual and racial slurs any respect at all?

You want to talk about retaliation Ozzie? You want to talk about protecting your own? I want to see every player from Venezuela throw at your sluggers. I want to see every pitcher with a gay brother, a lesbian sister drill your lineup over and over again, with his hardest fastball, until he gets tossed from the game. Then I want to see the
next reliever do the same, over and over until the entire team is thrown out, and they have to forefit the game. That's how you make a statement about toughness

That's team solidarity, and that's what you deserve.

And furthermore, I would have expected John Rocker to be dead by now, from a combination of a painkiller overdose and mechanical-bull riding injury.