Monday, July 6, 2009, 6:30PM: Wholesale prices have dropped significantly in the past week. With today’s close, I have the 0-cent margin price at a pretty $2.25. So, unless there is a dramatic reversal on NYMEX the next few days, the prediction is lower prices, with drops of at least 2-4 cents per day.

Now, on to business. With a spike up in everything oil/gas/diesel, we are very ripe for a spike tomorrow. I’m putting it at about 65% possible. The margins for Michigan and Indiana just fell below 0 today after riding a period of profit taking. It’s possible we won’t see a jump tomorrow as Speedway and the other stations wait for the weekly DOE report Wednesday for which direction we should see for the end of the week. But it’s been a while since the last one, I’m betting on a spike up to the $2.67-2.73 range.

Do fill up tonight/early tomorrow as spike protection.

As I write this, Michigan and Indiana are very close to dropping below the national average for the first time since the 18th of May for Indiana, and all the way back to the 18th of April for Michigan. I have started updating the Facebook account again, and I predicted on Wednesday that we should pass the national average Saturday in the $2.55-2.60 range. We are very close to seeing this happen.

So, you can follow us here at www.thegasgame.com, and we also have a Twitter account (@thegasgame) and the Facebook account. Three great ways to help yourself save money by following TheGasGame.

Tuesday, June 23, 2009, 4:30PM: The stock market/energy market correlation continues. Stocks topped out recently on June 12, a day after the price of a barrel of oil did, while NYMEX waited until June 16. Since then, NYMEX has dropped 20 cents, and Chicago wholesale prices are down nearly 50 cents since June 4. That means the good news for us will continue, as the 0-cent margin price using Chicago wholesale prices is about $2.39. That means prices will continue to fall by several cents a day at least for the rest of the week. Hey, Ada and Lowell — get with the program!

– Ed Aboufadel

Michigan is well above the spike threshold, about 4 cents. Indiana on the other hand is below that threshold, by about 8 cents. We could see Michigan slide by for a second week without a spike, but that isn’t 100% certain as I don’t know if supply issues there are 100% clear.

The rest of the Speedway states are ripe for a spike after going more than a week without one. I expect them to go back up near $2.80, and probably on the low side of that. Since Michigan is still near $2.80 in average, the only reason to spike is from supply issues. It may get back up to $2.90 if that is the case.

Keep an eye on what the Chicago spot is doing on our “Today in Oil” page.  As long as it continues to fall back toward the NYMEX RBOB, we too should see prices fall at the pump.

Thursday, June 4, 2009, 6:35PM:  I haven’t been very helpful with the price hikes this week, but Bill has!  Let’s reflect a bit on the past five weeks.  We have gone from $1.99 a gallon in Standale on April 27 to $2.95 a gallon today.  Why?  First we have numerous reports of mild gasoline shortages in the Midwest.  Good job, gasoline industry, in managing this vital part of our economy!  Second, the rise in gasoline prices has mirrored rises in the price of a barrel of oil (almost $20 a barrel) and in the Dow (almost 700 points) since April 27.  Yes, as I’ve written before, we are dealing with speculators again.  The price is being influenced by people who are demanding oil and gas as investments, rather than as fuel.  While in the long run, higher prices will inspire new and cleaner fuels, which I support, in the short run, just as we are digging ourselves out of recession caused in part by financial geniuses who bought and sold “default swaps” and other products they couldn’t afford to support, prices spiking to $3 could cause it all to grind to halt again, like it did last summer.  Great.  Hopefully these artificially high prices in Chicagoland will soon attract cheaper gasoline from other parts of the country.

And it isn’t just me saying this.  Some guy calling himself a petroleum analyst for GasBuddy.com, Patrick DeHaan, also believes this is so.  He said so on WOOD-TV 8.

So, I’d hate to say this, but $2.85 or less is looking pretty good come tomorrow at 9:30, as we may see Speedway break the $3 barrier, or come close at $2.99.  Hold on to your hats, the pain hasn’t stopped, yet.

I am not sure what this means for Indiana and Ohio.  It is quite possible we, too shall see a spike tomorrow as well.  But it is hard to tell where we are getting our gas from.  NY Harbor, Group 3 and Gulf Coast gas prices are almost 35 cents lower than the Chicago spot, and I wouldn’t be surprised if gas from one of those areas makes its way to this area.  The price in this area will be lower, but to what extent?  A spike is a possibility, but I’m thinking it would be much like last week, where we will ride out the last spike.  But jumping into the mid to upper $2.80s wouldn’t shock me at all, either.