Thursday, November 5, 2026, 8 PM: Oil is down more than 10% since Sunday night. Wholesale gas prices have given up 50 cents a gallon over the past four days. And woe to those invested in tech stocks, with QQQ down over 7% since last Thursday’s close. Are these drops tied to the election results? Probably, but I’m not smart enough to know for sure.

What is true is that if wholesale prices stabilize, there is room for prices to fall to $3.49 in Michigan. You can find gas below $4 right now in the northern parts of Kent County. On the east side of the county, however, I am still seeing prices in the $4.40’s, particularly where the competition is not keen. So, hold out for lower prices the next several days, if you can. -EA

Sunday, November 1, 2026, 2 PM: In the past two years, there have been numerous times when the Marathons in west Michigan tried to initiate a price hike, only to have the competition say “Yeah, no.” Most noteworthy was at the beginning of May of this year, when Big M attempted a brief foray above $5 a gallon. The latest was a week ago, when I spotted $4.99’s at the twin Marathons in Lowell on Sunday. That attempted hike ran into an incredible drop in wholesale prices last week — as much as $1 a gallon — which the retailers passed along to us for the most part. This afternoon, you can fill up for $4.19 a gallon in Rockford.

I wonder what the regional price guy at Marathon thinks of all of this.

Will we get a hike this week? I thought the answer in Indiana would be “a big yes” once we get past Election Day, but signs are that the governor will extend the gas tax holiday into December.

However, throughout the Midwest (and this is all instinct on my part), I am expecting a region-wide reset on Wednesday morning, after the election. Kalshi’s commodities markets aren’t signaling any drama in oil prices going into Monday, but those prices remain elevated. Wholesale gas prices dropped precipitously after issues at the refinery in Joliet settled down and the usual autumn slide in prices kicked in. I estimate the 0-cent margin price is just about $4 even. If we get a hike this week, recent history for restoring margins suggests $4.49 or higher, and many stations are there right now. -EA

Sunday, October 25, 2026, 8 PM: Long-time readers know that price hikes are almost always initiated by Marathon (a.k.a., Big M) or Speedway (a.k.a., Big Red). This evening, it looks like Big M is trying to start a hike to $4.99, as the twin Marathons on M-21 in Lowell are posting that price, as our a few others in Kent County.

Will the rest of the retail gas ecosystem follow tomorrow? Probably, as oil, wholesale gas prices, and retail diesel prices ended last week rising. And the election Tuesday in Israel is probably adding to the chaos right now. It will be an interesting week. -EA

Sunday, October 18, 2026, 6 PM: Last Tuesday-Wednesday, we had an up-down spike in wholesale prices. Because of the move to $4.79 the week before, the “up” part of the spike didn’t trigger higher retail prices. At the close Friday, we were back to where we were at the beginning of the month, in terms of wholesale and retail prices. But oil ticked up at the end of the week, although I don’t see any obvious drama this evening. Another “but” is that autumn is the season when retail prices move lower typically.

My guess this evening is that retail gas prices will tick lower over the next few days, and then reset on Wednesday or Thursday again as margins drop toward zero, to $4.59 or higher. So, wait until Tuesday night to fill the tank. This is assuming that the wholesale market is steady this week. -EA

Note: Gas Game images are usually generated by Google Gemini AI.

Sunday, October 11, 2026, 5 PM: Prices rose Thursday after an uptick in wholesale prices Wednesday, but a clue was that the local Costco was keeping their prices higher. And this evening, they are up to $4.55 at Costco, which suggests that we are not going to see much of a break in prices this week. I am not sure what to make of the news of the world, with Trump announcing an “energy ceasefire” in the Ukraine/Russia war, but the airport in Saudi Arabia was attacked on Saturday.

So, I expect prices to decline slowly into the $4.60’s this week, cheaper if you know where to look. But a fresh hike is unlikely. -EA

On to current conditions: After that spike in mid-September to $4.99 a gallon, fueled by the on-going war with Iran and refinery issues in the Midwest, prices have been dropping, and I spotted $4.19 yesterday. That seems to be the floor, although our friends at Costco are selling gas for $4.52 this morning. I suspect we’ll get a system-wide reset this week. $4.59? It is difficult to say for sure. -EA

Thursday, September 17, 2026, 9 AM: A second hike to $4.99 kicked in yesterday, after the Joliet, Illinois refinery shut down. We are dealing with an ugly combination of $100+ oil and refinery issues, and wholesale prices have been moving dramatically. $4.99 matches the high from May, although there was an aborted attempt to hike to $5.29 that month.

We’d all like to see $5 remain the ceiling and for prices to head lower. How can that happen? First, the refinery issues need to clear up. Second, seasonality is in our favor, as normally prices slide from August to December. Third is the remote chance that there is some good news, price-wise, from the Middle East. This is not a prediction, just wishful thinking.

My timing isn’t the best for these dramatic times, but due to some personal travel plans, my next post won’t be until early next month. See you then, Gas Gamers! -EA

Sunday, September 13, 2026, 9 PM: Another Sunday night, another attempt to make sense of the latest news from the Middle East and its potential effect on gas prices here. Oil spiked 10% last week, to over $100 a barrel, and it doesn’t look like any Iran-based relief is in sight, as I write this. A hike to $4.49 is justified by the math, but would they go higher to $4.59? Either way, I’ll make a prediction that another reset is coming this week. -EA

Monday, September 7, 2026, 8 PM: Let’s start in Indiana, where the governor again invoked an “energy emergency” to continue the gas tax holiday until October 6. So, prices there will stay under $3.50. Here in Michigan, some retailers have lower prices than Costco, and oil prices have ticked up again this evening, so how do we avoid a price reset? Yes, the move to “winter gas” does keep a lid on prices. But I will again predict a price reset for this week. Will the new price be an incumbent-friendly $3.99, or a more natural $4.29, given the wholesale price quotes? We’ll see. -EA

Disclosure: It should come as a surprise to no one that I use AI (Google Gemini) to generate the images attached to my post. I won’t write this with every post, but disclosing AI use is becoming a thing, particularly in higher education. But I do not use AI to write this blog.

The 8/24 hike to $4.39 was in tandem with a spike in oil prices to $87 a barrel, and of course, as soon as the hike was complete, oil prices fell to $82. This afternoon, though, it is back to $90, with new closing highs in the United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) and our friends at Valero (VLO). If it wasn’t for the move to the winter gas blend today, a move back to $4.39 or higher before Friday would seem obvious. Instead, it is more of a coin flip. I pick tails, predicting a hike soon and advising readers to fill up. – EA