Sunday, August 17, 2025, 5 PM: For months, we have seen in Michigan prices drop below $3 for a bit, only to reset back to $3.39. In the backdrop is oil bouncing around in the upper $60’s a barrel, and wholesale prices maintaining a floor of $2 a gallon. In other words, the lack of volatility in the wholesale market has translated to a relatively narrow range in the retail market.

But there are two factors that might maintain retail prices below $3. First, oil dropped below $63 last week, and you would push wholesale gas prices below $2. Second, we are getting to the point in the summer where the retailers start to be less aggressive, trying to manage their “summer blend” inventory. On the other hand, we have been in “reset to $3.39” mode for nearly five months — why stop now?

The math only takes you so far, and I have to go with my instincts. No hike this week. -EA

Sunday, August 10, 2025, 9 AM: Stock market traders call it a “headfake”. Oil prices jumped from $65 a barrel on July 25 to $70 on July 30, which inspired the faulty $3.49 prediction. Since the 30th, oil has fallen 10% to near $63. Given where we are in the summer, and that the current average price in Michigan is $3.22, gas prices should follow oil’s lead. I expect to see $2.99 somewhere other than Costco/Sam’s Club by late in the week. -EA

Wednesday, July 30, 2025, 8 PM: I see oil popped a bit since last week, up to $70 a barrel. Wholesale gas prices are ticking higher, too, and many stations in west Michigan have prices in the $3.20’s right now, or lower. Will they reset again on Thursday or Friday to $3.39? My instincts say yes to a hike, following a hike yesterday in Indiana. Will they take a shot at $3.49 for the first time this year? Maybe. -EA

Sunday, July 20, 2025, 9 AM: All in all, we have had remarkably stable wholesale prices for gasoline since mid-January, despite the price of crude oil dropping from $80 to $67 a barrel. So basically, the seasonal bias from January to September of higher gas prices has been tempered by drops in the price of oil. If oil remains where it is, we should start to see some noticeable relief for gas prices after Labor Day. For now, though, it looks like two weeks after the last hike, we are going to head back to $3.39 this week in Michigan and beyond, as our Gas Buddy commented on Friday. -EA

Tuesday, July 8, 2025, 8 AM: Nearly two weeks ago, I wrote, “Based on what I see, gas prices should be hovering around $2.99”, and I did have the pleasure of filling an empty tank for $2.83 in Cadillac over the weekend. Interesting pricing in the Traverse City area last week: either $3.19 or $3.39.

I waited until this morning to post my latest update, wanting to see what the energy markets did after the long weekend and the action in Washington. Those markets were up on Monday, and in terms of wholesale pricing, we appear to be back to where we were the last two times we had a price hike. I predict we reset to $3.39 again soon. -EA

Thursday, June 26, 2025, 7 PM: Soon after my last posting on Saturday, Iran was bombed, spurring talk of $100 a barrel for oil and $5 a gallon for gasoline. When future markets opened late Sunday, there was a head fake in that direction, but soon oil prices sagged from $78 to $68 by the end of the day Monday and $65 on Tuesday. Wholesale gas prices in the Midwest started to follow … so of course we had a “powerful” reset to $3.39 on Tuesday? Even Costco got into the act, jumping to $3.24, which suggests some supply/demand mismatch late in the flow to gas stations. But I really don’t know what triggered that hike. Based on what I see, gas prices should be hovering around $2.99 this evening, so the advice is to sit tight if you don’t need to fill up. Or head to Holland, where gas is $3.09. -EA

Saturday, June 21, 2025, 3 PM: Summer is officially here, but let’s talk about that hike the past Monday to $3.39. As noted previously, the uptick in wholesale oil and gas prices two weeks ago did not spark a hike. Then, despite the leap in oil prices a week ago due to the Israel-Iran conflict, wholesale gas prices in the Midwest barely reacted. The Monday hike did not set a new high for 2025, and in Michigan, it took time to spread. Today, you can find gas for $3.19 if you know where to look.

Your curious Gas Game writer wonders why. A clue may be in the latest report on gasoline stations’ sales, which have been dropping each month in 2025 while average gas prices have risen a bit. Maybe demand is sliding (at least in the Midwest), which is keeping retail prices tame.

As I write this update, they are saying on the news that the U.S. is moving some B-2 bombers closer to the conflict, so who knows what the markets will look like on Monday. Play it safe, find gas near $3.19, and fill your tank. -EA

Sunday, June 15, 2025, 6 PM: This is one of those times that I wish I could be an invisible man in the offices of Speedway, etc., to hear their conversation about price hikes. There is probably a Mr. Aggressive there, who must have been on vacation the past week, given the ample opportunities to reach for $3.49 or higher. That leaves Mr. They-Will-Blame-Us-For-Inflation in charge, and as consumers, it has been a good weekend for us.

But Israel and Iran are trading missile strikes today, and at 6 PM, oil futures opened at $75 a barrel, so I am going to top my tank first thing Monday. -EA

Saturday, June 7, 2025, 6 PM: We’ve been $62ish for oil and $1.99ish for publicly-traded wholesale gas for several weeks now, leading to prices jumping to $3.39, then sliding towards $2.99, and then back to $3.39 multiple times. The last few days, oil is up towards $65 (in tandem with the SP 500 returning to 6000), pulling wholesale gas prices higher, and driving around Grand Rapids today, I didn’t see much of an interest in prices heading back to $2.99. I predict we will see $3.49 this week. -EA

Monday, May 26, 2025, 10 AM: Although you can find gas under $3 in Holland and Cedar Springs, for the most part, prices are holding in the $3.30’s in Michigan. Based on the cost of oil, gas prices should be lower, but it is summer so that means that something has gone wrong at one of the refineries. In this case, Joliet. I expect retail gas prices to drop slowly this week. -EA