We are in dangerous territory. The commodities market is up yet again, this time on a weak dollar. Fair price is at break even, which can mean a spike is close at hand. But, we have already had a spike this week, so another one is not as likely to come. But we just came off a weekend where the margin was thin, and Speedway might not want to repeat that again. But the last time commodities spiked up like this (in May) Speedway lagged behind so much that Indiana gas stations lost money on the sale of fuel. But… well, you get the idea.

It would be prudent to watch the prices as they may climb going into the weekend. Indiana could see $2.75-2.80, Michigan and NW Indiana could be 5-10 cents higher. Or, we could see prices stagnate or drop very slowly… only the people in Ohio know what will happen.

The dam has gotta break sometime. Gas usually falls at least 2 cents on non-spike days, but over the weekend it didn’t budge, or only went down a couple cents, depending on where you live. The average in Michigan is only .3¢ cheaper than the Thursday spike price. Stagnation like that shows stations are feeling the pinch. The fair price is 8 cents above the current average, too.

Expect a spike tomorrow. Most of Indiana will see 2.65-2.70, while Michigan will be 4-6 cents higher, and NW Indiana will be 5-10 cents higher.

There was no DOE report yesterday because of the Columbus Day holiday. So will Speedway treat today as a Thursday or a Wednesday? If it is a Wednesday, they may wait for the DOE report before acting with a spike. If it’s a Thursday they may spike at 9am as they normally do. Indiana could go to $2.50-2.55, Michigan and NW Indiana about 5 cents higher.

Bad news today for the Midwest. Exxon will close the 127,000 barrel per day vacuum distillation unit for maintenance. Their 238,000 barrel per day Joliet refinery in Illinois will be on minimum output starting later this month.

This caused the Chicago spot price to climb 5 cents today. It will also cause our prices to be higher in the near future as well. Expect a possible spike tomorrow at the earliest, and Thursday at the latest.

USA Average: $2.479
Michigan average ( $2.382 ) is $0.097 under USA average

A spike is looming, with a negative margin in my fair price formula. It’s quite possible that the run-up on the markets won’t transfer over to your local rack prices, but I’m 90% sure of a spike tomorrow.

Expect prices anywhere from $2.37-$2.42 in Indiana, 5 cents higher in Michigan, and with the Chicago RBOB only 1 cent over regular, it could be anywhere from 0-5 cents over the Indiana price.

Thursday, September 17, 2009, 6:00PM: Wholesale prices have been pretty quiet, but there was a bit of jump last night, which turned into a price reset to $2.55 today. Hard to see right now what’s next, although we are in better shape than in California, which has been dealing with prices over $3 and supply problems.

Wholesale is up again, almost 9 cents in the last two days. Margins have dried up to almost nothing/negative numbers. If you are needing gas, I’d fill up tonight or early tomorrow. We could spike up to the same levels seen during the last spike, although the NW counties in Indiana may get a better break since the Chicago RBOB spot is only 2 cents over the Chicago Spot.

Monday, September 7, 2009, 6:00 PM: The past two weeks have been very busy for me, but gas prices have been tame, except for the unusual price adjustment a week ago, where Speedway and others raised prices a few cents, but there was no state-wide reset of prices. That is going to come this week, particularly with gas down to $2.26 this weekend in Lowell. I predict a price hike, perhaps as soon Tuesday, to somewhere in the range of $2.49-$2.59. I know many stations are $2.49 today, so maybe they don’t see a hike, but it is hard to be more precise right now. Looks like I am in agreement with Bill. — Ed Aboufadel