tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-52269265149423115942025-06-17T09:31:40.447-04:00There is so much nonsense spouted by investment pundits everyday that is so poor it makes me ill. Not only is most of the advice poor, but the majority of the time these people take no firm positions, know nothing about how to make money trading, lie, take credit for the one "guess" they got right, etc. On this blog what you will get is honest thoughts and a straightforward account of how I am trading (emotions included). Sometimes this blog may be a little bit raw, but it will always be honest.The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.comBlogger2361500tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-55382820704434060032010-01-21T19:49:00.002-05:002010-01-21T19:51:43.918-05:00

more pain to come?i would bet on it.i imagine while the banks still have prop desks they will show there disapproval by shorting the shit out of the market.still, i think obama is right here (from a long term perspective) on this and i am a republican.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-74192249254755799792010-01-20T16:03:00.002-05:002010-01-20T16:26:25.817-05:00

to really limit the damage. per everyday buying dips is the play. if history plays out we will gap (as we will be bought up after hours and overnight) and go tomorrow and eliminate all the losses today and maybe even break to new highs.at one point today it looks like longs may have been about to break but then the magic bid came in again in the afternoon and we ripped into the close to

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-47973477455603681772010-01-19T09:49:00.003-05:002010-01-19T09:54:49.292-05:00

qqqq's have regained basically all the losses inside of 20 mins and SPY well on its wayi tell you you can not short this market regardless right nowthrow all history precedent aside and just buy every fricking dipi still am out of this mess but wish I could just go against my gut and just load the boat long on every dip because there has been serious money made just ripping shorts every dip...

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-75183498629519327052010-01-18T10:21:00.006-05:002010-01-18T11:06:13.394-05:00

you can't stop the Monday up moves even after down days and on days the markets closed. should we really be surprised...we will see how it plays out tomorrow, if the market regains even 3/4 of the losses on friday shorts will once again be ready to run for cover and 1150 S&P could be ready to burst.that said i'll stick with my gut from friday and say we touch at least 1120 before we get back to

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-29210796306570098742010-01-16T08:20:00.003-05:002010-01-16T08:24:30.267-05:00

yesterday felt different didn't it... i think this may be the beginning of the overdue correction.everything sold off and it was on good news (intc and jpm earnings)they always say the news is the best at the top and worst at the bottomi would argue there have been several warning signs the last week in the economic numbers that the bulls have ignoredthat said, everytime we have had a one day

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-68057532952692567812010-01-12T16:15:00.002-05:002010-01-12T16:40:43.112-05:00

i mean how the F do we rally everyday at the end of the day and then in the early hours of the futures markets on no real news (most of the time)?why isnt someone asking these questions? i know if we fell everyday into the close or overnight, we would hear all kinds of ruckus about short sellers, manipulation, etc.2009 has taught me that manipulating markets is fine as long as it helps the

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-48981657791913119122009-12-23T07:35:00.001-05:002009-12-23T07:36:43.057-05:00

up again - almost seems too easy for this market to go up... but, hey, I guess everything is fine again and we are in a new multi-year bull market. get long so they say on CNBC...

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-81307933784737901682009-12-22T22:25:00.001-05:002009-12-22T22:25:40.119-05:00

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/108455/wall-street-alchemy-turns-bailout-into-goldunreal, but the truth - i do think the big banks actually run the world

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-65654060845562638122009-12-21T19:37:00.001-05:002009-12-21T19:38:36.907-05:00

feels like the bulls are about rip us higher. I actually think they can. Not much else to do except buy dips and not get short I guess.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-85833799429664875572009-12-18T16:05:00.003-05:002009-12-18T16:07:54.248-05:00

market seems off hard yesterday on big volume. Next day - bulls rip us right back up.Can't fight this market. It is a long only, buy every f-ing dip blindly type market. yesterday, banks look ready to tank - today someone had to own these banks and they rallied. same pattern again and again - just when it looks like any sector / index will break - someone saves the day...As I have said it

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-84451161219265660832009-12-14T20:19:00.002-05:002009-12-14T21:27:51.309-05:00

ummm... think about it. TARP has bonus restrictions mandated... with TARP paid back the banks can pay huge bonuses with all the free money they got! notice most of these big banks have huge capital markets/trading operations versus just retail banking...nice trade big banks!

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-55026372167875197972009-12-14T14:31:00.004-05:002009-12-14T14:42:14.679-05:00

I know I have not posted much lately but not a lot to say into year end. We have a market where you can only be long because the momentum / action all favors buying dips at all times. In fact, for the most part stock picking hasn't even mattered as long as you were LONG you made money. The CNBC spinners are working full time to support the bullish mindset and bad news is shrugged off or somehow

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-26841475513698332822009-12-08T20:20:00.001-05:002009-12-08T20:20:56.314-05:00

after google took the blog off for a few days for some reason?

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-21069866573552148312009-11-30T16:50:00.002-05:002009-11-30T16:54:48.010-05:00

Market rallies in the last hour per usual. Surprisingly, banks and reits rocket back higher than they were before Dubai even happened. This was shocking to me...Tough market to play unless you buy, buy, buy. I have a feeling this will end very badly for longs but when is the question. As of right now, I see no fear in the longs and the buy the dip has worked so easily it's hard to stop doing it

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-52247370546110164432009-11-26T10:06:00.001-05:002009-11-26T10:07:51.479-05:00

Futures down big on this Dubai news and a worldwide selloff...

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-5135717253820742262009-11-26T09:03:00.001-05:002009-11-26T09:05:54.102-05:00

Look for the banks to get ripped...Dubai said on Wednesday that the delayed repayment of debt was a first step toward restructuring Dubai World, the conglomerate that spearheaded the emirate's breakneck growth.The news has sent the cost of insuring Dubai's debt against default soaring and bond prices tumbling.State-run Dubai World has $59 billion of liabilities, its subsidiary Nakheel said in

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-30503211114360290562009-11-25T19:25:00.001-05:002009-11-25T19:26:40.431-05:00

I hear about how the market is going to go up because people are chasing performance.I ask you is that a viable investment strategy or reason to be long?

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-82762321067103796662009-11-25T18:32:00.000-05:002009-11-25T18:33:43.425-05:00

check the articlehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/elliott-wave-adviser-now-aggressively-bearish-2009-11-25

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-87951852363668158442009-11-25T09:05:00.001-05:002009-11-25T09:06:47.112-05:00

Market gapping up, but is this a set up fro a "gap and crap" or do we just rocket thru highs the day before Thanksgiving?Oh, and dollar down and market/gold up again... what else is new?

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-85731368142514469032009-11-24T21:02:00.002-05:002009-11-24T21:05:00.656-05:00

weeks after it made its impact on the market.today, 3rd quarter GDP was revised from 3.5% to 2.8%. If you remember a few weeks ago the market went ballistic when we had the 3.5% which was above the 3% forecast. But, since it is weeks later it doesn't matter. Ever since March this revised lower after the fact has been going on.strange, huh?

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-25427673588340776022009-11-23T16:37:00.000-05:002009-11-23T16:38:11.653-05:00

dollar down, market up, gold upnothing really else to report

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-7725369020952329212009-11-16T07:41:00.002-05:002009-11-16T08:05:38.310-05:00

market still in full go-go mode I see... supported by the dollar continuing it's dump - down another 0.5% this morning... who knew it was this easy to work the stock market up and help the wealthiest people by hurting the poorest...

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-76229540828032927252009-11-06T08:51:00.007-05:002009-11-06T09:08:18.538-05:00

Serious "realistic" damage done today to the bull case as unemployment soars to a reported 10.2% well above the analysts 9.9% estimate. Remember, the market is up over 3% this week in anticipation of this report.This is highest since 1983, but who knows the bulls will find some silver lining to bid up stocks right?Oh - and for those playing along at home the "Adverse Case" unemployment for 2009

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-12855633159431583482009-11-05T14:11:00.001-05:002009-11-05T14:11:33.749-05:00

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-84791032114884827912009-11-05T10:50:00.003-05:002009-11-05T10:51:17.955-05:00

nothing else I can say except wow or WTF?But taking daytrading short right here at S&P 1063 and Naz 2102

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-44654428906172953212009-10-30T16:03:00.005-04:002009-10-30T16:11:20.987-04:00

BOOYAH - Shorts get paid Part 2!Shorts got paid as hell today (myself included). Looks like my thoughts about yesterday's move being ridiculous was actually right.Now next week the longs could really be on the run. This is a true character change in the market.Be back later but out for now as I had a big day after a lousy day yesterday. Good week overall for yours truly although it did not come

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-85613402819690647582009-10-29T16:15:00.002-04:002009-10-29T16:20:24.552-04:00

That sucked for shorts...somehow everytime the market looks like it is going to really correct (closed below the 50 DMA yesterday) buying comes in - I mean everytime since March... i might even start thinking some of the conspiracy theorists are right!once again after getting f'ing rocked on huge volume yesterday the buyers step in on minimal volume and shoot us back thru yesterday's starting

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-89833530167973733942009-10-28T16:05:00.009-04:002009-10-29T08:38:30.600-04:00

What do you know? The dip buyers became ripped buyers today. As discussed here I shorted with size at the S&P 1090ish level. I also mentioned shorting China yesterday which came off big today. These shorts have paid handsomely. The fantasy recovery may very well be unraveling now as irrational exuberance subsides. Tomorrow GDP which may print OK for the bulls to try to buy us up into

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-100399617119792082009-10-27T09:28:00.000-04:002009-10-27T09:29:00.198-04:00

market about even this morning...

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-60725610298072015712009-10-26T09:46:00.001-04:002009-10-26T09:46:46.713-04:00

markets jumping early today for no reason

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-27253223796435345132009-10-23T08:37:00.001-04:002009-10-23T08:37:57.580-04:00

MSFT beats big as expected

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-10292759162333395632009-10-22T08:34:00.002-04:002009-10-22T08:35:19.268-04:00

Initials claims higher than expected... that will hurt the bull bounce case today

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-32510969380873043872009-10-21T13:25:00.002-04:002009-10-21T13:29:41.672-04:00

This is scaring me. At some point the general stock market may get concerned about a currency crisis. But until then dollar down stocks up!

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-79854507025453385412009-10-20T08:23:00.001-04:002009-10-20T08:23:47.340-04:00

I post my thoughts in the comments section

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-85077740777440617322009-10-19T09:47:00.001-04:002009-10-19T09:47:41.355-04:00

See comments as this post is just to open my market comments in real-time.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com20tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-8358605826199649412009-10-18T09:46:00.000-04:002009-10-18T09:47:02.648-04:00

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-42235360206758250532009-10-13T17:49:00.007-04:002009-10-13T18:04:32.143-04:00

Whatever happens - "It's all good!" Unemployment at 10% and getting worse - It's all good!Market up 60% in a few months - It's all good!Dollar going to shit - It's all good!Gold through the roof - It's all good!Foreclosures at all-time highs - It's all good!Banks failing left and right - It's all good!FDIC is broke - It's all good!Government spending out of control - It's all good!Low analyst

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-64380957277828387612009-10-13T10:11:00.008-04:002009-10-13T10:58:54.223-04:00

Volume upGS downgraded by Whitney - What Government Sachs downgraded? That's legal?JNJ beat on lower sales and tax rateCSCO announces dilutive acquisitionLet's see how they close this market ahead of earnings that will need to be great to keep this momo flowing... Banks weak early, Naz stronger early...Will this be the the day buying the dip gets you burnt? Probably not as buyers will surely come

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-47151829771710199422009-10-12T12:45:00.003-04:002009-10-12T16:56:37.400-04:00

I am still not a buyer here but...Bloomberg.com ran a story this morning with an interesting take on the valuation of the stock market. Excerpts from the story: Investors outside the U.S. are purchasing companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index at the cheapest valuations on record, their buying power boosted by a seven-month decline in the dollar... The S&P 500 is priced at 19.9 times

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-26619281030350685212009-10-12T10:50:00.012-04:002009-10-12T11:07:18.663-04:00

It just feels too complacent for the situation the world is really in to me (unemployment, higher taxes coming, govt debt, cost cutting earnings beats, inventory restocking GDP bounce). Feels like people are just buying because the market is going up and not on some real long-term thesis (possibly a lot of stock renters here rather than long term buyers). I am worried about some event happening

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-17897764770553005982009-10-12T07:42:00.002-04:002009-10-12T07:42:49.646-04:00

Bloomberg.com reports central banks flush with record reserves are increasingly snubbing dollars in favor of euros and yen, further pressuring the greenback after its biggest two- quarter rout in almost two decades. Policy makers boosted foreign currency holdings by $413 billion last quarter, the most since at least 2003, to $7.3 trillion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Nations

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-64012844217112388532009-10-11T21:26:00.001-04:002009-10-11T21:28:35.579-04:00

Do we have to at least kiss 10k just to do it before any selloff can happen?Lots of big earnings this week, surely the banks will beat with crazy accounting and one time gains... will investors keep buying "it"?

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-23614169738301583032009-10-09T11:07:00.008-04:002009-10-09T11:57:54.851-04:00

The TBT long from yesterday has worked for over $2. This is the ultra short long term US treasury. Clearly looks like a trend change in long term bonds after yesterday's auction. If you follow this blog you know I am already short a core position in long term UST's. A new possible swing today I am looking at is the VXX (currently at $47.35). Basically, an ETF that tracks the VIX ("fear gauge"

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-604303142287009662009-10-08T20:02:00.001-04:002009-10-08T20:02:54.581-04:00

kind of groovy and funny...

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-3871146452683442572009-10-08T11:20:00.006-04:002009-10-08T11:53:03.264-04:00

Dollar down, everything else up - even treasuries? what?This will work until it doesn't and could end badly.That said the short play is clearly loaded so a-squeezing we will go...wish i would have waited for a retest of highs before committing short, now I may get stopped and watch us reverse down. so my gut was wrong on that short - it happens, possibly take the loss and move on...my long

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-63841909291962845412009-10-06T09:47:00.003-04:002009-10-06T12:24:41.194-04:00

stop above recent highs (about 2% above) - this is a swing short

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-37605032379238188122009-10-05T16:32:00.005-04:002009-10-05T16:37:04.689-04:00

Precious metals (PMs) were up today with gold getting very near its all-time high again today. One thing I noticed last week was that the PMs were strong even when the dollar was up and the market was down which is a divergence that could have been the tell for this next move higher. Plus, I have been hearing alot of people talking about gold pulling back lately (even bulls on gold saying I will

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-65771523097512773042009-10-05T13:54:00.006-04:002009-10-05T16:06:55.759-04:00

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-26073607358054831922009-10-04T10:51:00.000-04:002009-10-04T10:57:23.651-04:00

RINO IBD article can be found - HERE

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-15344497684416304262009-10-02T09:16:00.007-04:002009-10-02T09:53:21.884-04:00

Stock has sold off from almost $22 yesterday to $18 this morning (premarket). 10 DMA is a little below $18.Remember this Company will work in any economic environment because China has mandated that their customers install RINO's systems. Also, if you net the $2 a share in cash out of RINO's stock price @ $18 you have a forward PE of 7.5. Someone in the comments section suggested a $150 stock

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-65391393125420631402009-09-29T17:09:00.003-04:002009-09-29T17:11:04.474-04:00

This is a blurb from briefing.com - a great info tool you should think about paying for"RINO is a small cap name we have been following for a while. We initially wrote it up on Jun 24 at $8.75, when it was still trading on the bulletin boards (see InPlay archive). The stock is up 130%, but since then, the co has reported strong Q2 results and the Chinese government has announced tougher pollution

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-33367723655604894352009-09-28T17:12:00.006-04:002009-09-28T17:32:56.811-04:00

RINO rips up over $20 after entry into the IBD 100.RCON posted their year end numbers today which were $1.04 basic EPS and .99 diluted. Stock trades under $10 with 1.7 million float. Company has a conference call tomorrow morning which will be worth listening to. It only has a 1.7 million share float, so if the momos want to run it they certainly could easily. That said, it needs to get more

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-90194117117658035202009-09-26T08:46:00.004-04:002009-09-26T09:18:32.555-04:00

As I said it would a month or so ago if it closed above $15 on any upcoming Friday. RINO will get huge exposure from the IBD (Investor Business Daily) and I see over 700,000 short and its debut is at #2. This could be interesting on Monday expecially if the overall market stabilizes. You can search the blog (mid-right of the page) for more color on RINO. This has momo, but it's not just a

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-21467594319514074572009-09-24T12:48:00.003-04:002009-09-24T12:58:34.328-04:00

I would think the funds might put a little buy pressure into the end of the quarter, but they have put a lot of buy pressure over the last 3 months so let's see how they close September?Not a lot of buying enthusiasm today.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-56154448938319396392009-09-22T19:50:00.002-04:002009-09-22T19:52:10.013-04:00

Gold, silver and metals stocks up big... and my small caps were up big again. RINO broke out on all time high volume and RCON could be on it's way to running into its earnings release next week. Daddy got paid today, but tomorrow is a new day.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-72196382446141145102009-09-22T19:45:00.004-04:002009-09-22T19:50:04.308-04:00

Dollar seems to be driving the market everyday.Check this chart of the S&P versus the $ over the last 6 months... apparently the plan is make the dollar worth"less" and other assets can shoot up and make people feel better... that is until consumers start seeing the pain of inflation.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-24234436464083020092009-09-21T18:28:00.003-04:002009-09-21T20:15:11.213-04:00

at about the 4:17 mark our RINO was mentioned on CNBC... link belowhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1269517851&play=1not often that my smallcaps get on CNBC...

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-79269736227972385322009-09-21T18:14:00.004-04:002009-09-21T18:21:07.891-04:00

All this guy plays is chill music... relaxing, with a weird name Donavon Frankenreiter and a killer "stache".

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-18723482606549531092009-09-20T19:50:00.004-04:002009-09-21T18:35:41.751-04:00

This guy is an f'ing idiot and a permabull. Does he really believe what he is saying? People let this guy manage $35 billion of their money?I heard this guy speak directly a few years ago before everything went to hell and he was preaching pretty much the same thing.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-16522369382944972752009-09-18T11:29:00.000-04:002009-09-18T11:30:04.368-04:00

Interesting blurb from Agora Financial.30% of Americans making $100,000 or more each year are living paycheck to paycheck, reports a CareerBuilder study this week. That’s up from 21% last year -- a number that still seems awfully high.61% of all Americans say they are in a similar bind… making just enough to finance their lifestyle every month. Just a year ago, 49% were living paycheck to

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-74004615987584813392009-09-17T10:20:00.013-04:002009-09-17T11:27:26.769-04:00

Tri-Tech Holding, a Chinese company that designs systems to manage and monitor China's municipal sewer systems, natural waterways and resources is up big again today. This is based a newsletter recommendation from what I gather. The company looks interesting. It has aspects of one I really like and have mentioned here - RINO (and also DGW). You can search the blog for that commentary (search

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-78998456546795496482009-09-15T21:21:00.003-04:002009-09-15T22:08:38.522-04:00

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-26184008630116598782009-09-15T21:07:00.001-04:002009-09-15T21:08:20.214-04:00

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-89966722704960337852009-09-15T20:41:00.000-04:002009-09-15T20:42:46.908-04:00

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-17431680538088169672009-09-15T20:28:00.003-04:002009-09-15T20:40:40.307-04:00

Was a good vacation and my positions moved mostly in my favor as I was gone.Especially RCON and the precious metals were rolling.Dollar continues to go down and the market continues to go up.I'll be back to more regular updating later this week.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-25802291632865269602009-09-08T10:42:00.006-04:002009-09-08T10:46:39.334-04:00

Recon Technology Secures $971,000 in New Equipment Orders for Chinese Oil and Gas FieldsRINO International Corp. Introduces New DXT Desulphurization SystemI still am long these stocks and think both have more to go on the upside. RCON should have earnings shortly and remember the float on RCON is 1.7 million.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-55066113001230287192009-09-08T10:40:00.000-04:002009-09-08T10:41:09.355-04:00

Daily Telegraph reports the US Federal Reserve's policy of printing money to buy Treasury debt threatens to set off a serious decline of the dollar and compel China to redesign its foreign reserve policy, according to a top member of the Communist hierarchy. Cheng Siwei, former vice-chairman of the Standing Committee and now head of China's green energy drive, said Beijing was dismayed by the

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-41433265210770984392009-09-06T19:25:00.001-04:002009-09-06T19:26:32.118-04:00

be back in a week.Where will gold be? Where will the market be? We will see.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-11694666947736078992009-09-02T22:14:00.001-04:002009-09-02T22:15:37.932-04:00

As mentioned before here I have been long precious metals for the whole year and it my be breakout time. If you are not long buying a pullback might be the way to go.It could get interesting...

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-9687598561370076352009-09-01T20:51:00.001-04:002009-09-01T20:53:38.715-04:00

Must say I am not surprised, but could see some back and forth but I think medium term we are probably headed south in the market.Of note - gold and silver outperforming and breaking the recent correlation with the stock market. Do the precious metals soon breakout. I do believe seasonality is on their side.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-23623033205206129872009-08-26T11:20:00.010-04:002009-08-27T17:04:12.138-04:00

RINO as I have mentioned before should be a top 5 IBD 100 candidate (search blog for my discussion of IBD 100) if it close above $15 on any upcoming Friday (now near $13.5). As you know I re-entered this when in bounced off of its 50 DMA down in the $11 range after taking an initial loss. Does this means RINO gets to $15 this week - by no means. I am simply pointing it out as past IBD entrants

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-60986033080847202522009-08-25T16:42:00.002-04:002009-08-25T16:43:49.317-04:00

and everyone is scared to short into it... does that mean a reversal may be coming. I think it might. Oil tirned south today and that could be the initial tell. However, short has been wrong and long has been right for the last 50% in this market so who knows. After Labor Day volume should return.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-52347247566348747462009-08-24T09:24:00.001-04:002009-08-24T09:34:35.578-04:00

The Wall Street Journal reports that critics complain that Goldman's distribution of the trading ideas only to its own traders and key clients hurts other customers who aren't given the opportunity to trade on the information. In fact, every week Goldman analysts offer stock tips at a gathering the firm calls a "trading huddle." But few of the thousands of clients who receive Goldman's written

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-91975041341753996772009-08-21T09:15:00.005-04:002009-08-21T15:38:26.695-04:00

Market continues its leak north.Oil looks to be a a breakout point. Gold/Silver up early. If oil breaks out it may be worth looking at some smaller cap oil plays for momo buying over the short term. We have some exposure there with RCON, but there are other ways to play that with past momo oil runners.It's hard for me to get excited about being long at these market valuations, so I will stay

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-79316547068120423052009-08-20T13:17:00.002-04:002009-08-20T13:18:10.431-04:00

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-15041245768227997602009-08-20T12:47:00.003-04:002009-08-20T12:52:57.202-04:00

Markets continue to leak north. Interesting to see the continued strength in both the stock markets and the US bond markets.Also, worth noting that the US markets seems to be keying off of China lately. Just something to note because the US historically led the way...Other things I am watching are oil at a potential breakout/resistance point and financials as those seem to lead us up or

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-86892050610541683292009-08-19T12:49:00.001-04:002009-08-19T12:50:57.786-04:00

Daily Telegraph reports demand for gold has fallen to a six-year low in the last quarter as big gold-buying countries such as India and Turkey retreated from high prices. Jewelery buyers, who are the main drivers of the gold price and make up more than 50% of consumption, withdrew from the market with volumes down by 22% in the last quarter. Electronics producers, which need gold for components

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-45852764208284006032009-08-19T12:17:00.006-04:002009-08-19T15:08:17.547-04:00

The dollar down / market up game is once again in vogue. Surprised that US Treasury bonds are up... I guess it is a long-term bond monetization day for the Fed as they were in the "market" buying US debt. For some reason people have been bidding the hell out of UST the last week.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-35039529847784059552009-08-19T11:30:00.001-04:002009-08-19T11:32:10.291-04:00

Click read more for articleWASHINGTON (Reuters) - Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said the U.S. economy has avoided a meltdown and appears on a slow path to recovery, but Congress must now deal with enormous amounts of debt that threaten to erode U.S. purchasing power.In an opinion column published on Wednesday by the New York Times, Buffett wrote that he "resoundingly applauds" actions by

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-60112482307723921842009-08-18T16:02:00.008-04:002009-08-18T16:36:16.048-04:00

RCON continues to fade on low volume and had a disappointing day today as it did not rebound with the market. Fact is this thing just doesn't get any attention (and small amounts of selling are dropping the stock). However, when a few bigger fish fall onto this one or when it reports north of $1 in EPS within the next few weeks, a run to the double digits could be a quick journey as with its

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-23365236501118531832009-08-18T13:49:00.003-04:002009-08-18T13:52:13.294-04:00

I got back on the RINO bus as I mentioned I might yesterday. Today we see a nice bounce off the 50 DMA. And my stop is slightly below yesterday's lows. The valuation and tech setup was too good to pass up despite the bad timing on the initial call.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-26188510644423039072009-08-17T10:09:00.008-04:002009-08-17T16:21:14.864-04:00

Longs getting murdered / commodities getting murdered / RINO/RCON getting murdered...at least my short positions are up big, but not overtaking the losses from my long positions in other areas today.Stopped out of RINO, but may look to re-enter as now the valuation looks really compelling, but hard to fight the tape here. Sorry about that pick...clearly my worst of 09 from a timing perspective.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-15224719195029805612009-08-15T09:57:00.001-04:002009-08-15T09:58:16.955-04:00

I'll be back later this weekend with some additional thoughts.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-45976956305228995232009-08-13T15:56:00.012-04:002009-08-13T16:37:59.790-04:00

This is a stock that has had a big move but pulled back since reporting good but not good enough earnings after strong move. It's another China play (like my recent picks RCON, DGW - you can click the blue RCON for that recommendation) - this time on environmental protection equipment. Has been compared to DGW which is a water treatment IPO that I nailed for a 50%+ gain this year. You may say

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-23809879201354234572009-08-13T14:28:00.009-04:002009-08-13T15:14:11.684-04:00

Market bouncing around today a lot as the indecision is evident (with what feels like an underlying bullish bias). Stopped out of the rest of my TBT for a 50 cent gain (sad thin is premarket this was up $1.2 more) today as the long bond auction is being hailed as strong (I will look to reenter around "fitty"). Economic data this morning was poor in my opinion and does shoot some holes in the "

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-63434835106941304122009-08-12T13:58:00.004-04:002009-08-12T14:50:06.103-04:00

Short interest on the S&P 500 is down to its lowest level since February. Investors were short 8.7 billion shares of the index at the end of July, Bloomberg reports today. That’s a 12% drop in just two weeks. Shorts reduced bets against financials the most, down 31%. Make of this what you will, but feels like one piece of the contrarian puzzle that has me starting to lean short again. That said,

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-9330290465655525972009-08-12T13:08:00.008-04:002009-08-12T13:11:45.591-04:00

As I mentioned yesterday my trade was only for $1-2 on this TBT. Therefore, taking half off for $1.15. Moving stop up to 51.49 on the remaining piece.10 yr UST auction results sort of weak here so could go further but locking in gains ahead of the Fed.Nice, low stress gain on this one for me.I still maintain a longer term bearish position and view of long term US bonds.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-8637841373041962102009-08-11T10:21:00.007-04:002009-08-11T10:41:53.614-04:00

I just bought the TBT (2x short long term treasuries at $50.9). Took a 1/2 position will buy more at $50 if it gets there. A little risky in front of the Fed but less so now that it has sold off the past few days. Looking for $1-2 on this trade as I already have a core short position in long term treasuries through a short on the TLT.Letting my remaining short positions from Friday ride (as of

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-42867434019288267082009-08-10T14:35:00.005-04:002009-08-10T15:02:18.247-04:00

As mentioned here I bought SRS/SKF and shorted some additional SPY on Friday afternoon. I am banking profits on half of my exposure. I think we have more to pullback but going to take the solid gains in one day off the table, especially with the longs continued late day squeeze fetish still in style.The SRS good for 6%, SKF for 3.0%, SPY for 1%.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-38566179501348038832009-08-08T16:13:00.015-04:002009-08-09T00:08:32.607-04:00

Recon Technology (RCON) is an interesting microcap company that IPO’ed last week which I think has huge potential for gains in the near and long term. First, the company is very small, so if you don’t like volatility you can stop reading right now as the company has a current market cap of around $30 million.What does the company do? Actually it looks pretty interesting. Recon Technology, Ltd.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-64026872366085624212009-08-07T08:41:00.009-04:002009-08-07T16:01:07.816-04:00

Some OK things that CNBC will be jumping up and down about but it's not "all good". Excerpt below is with the help of briefing.com (a great info site)."Payroll losses were reported across nearly every major category, with the exception of small increases in education and health services (+17K), leisure and hospitality (+9K) and government (+7K). Additionally, 1 out of every 6 workers over the

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-73817220826682255632009-08-06T20:53:00.004-04:002009-08-07T14:39:38.776-04:00

Look at the chart below - today's market almost a mirror of 1929-32. If we are going into a similar cycle watch out below because this rally may be near it's end. In fact I laid a small short line on the S&P out today. I will be looking to add if we can have one last exhaustion spike...Need more evidence..from October 29, 1929 until November 13, 1929, the stock market collapsed 49% (2008's was

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-75675228640703751152009-08-06T08:40:00.004-04:002009-08-06T08:43:01.748-04:00

BoE raises quantitative easing total to 175 bln sterling, holds rates - ReutersReuters reports the Bank of England extended its quantitative easing programme on Thursday, raising the size of its bond purchase scheme to an unexpectedly large 175 billion pounds from 125 billion, and held interest rates at 0.5 percent. The decision enables the central bank to continue its programme of asset

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-54880336129452464042009-08-05T23:41:00.007-04:002009-08-05T23:47:10.634-04:00

This thing is up 50% since I recommended it at $6 last week... nice. Like I said, momo traders picking it up and I expect $1.10-$1.20 to be reported in the next couple weeks so you could argue it's still cheap. Would $15+ be out of the question?Also, DGW up another 7%+ today... hope you guys have bought some of these most recent rec's.This thing is up 50% since I recommended it at 6 last week...

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-88252704683686450062009-08-05T15:27:00.004-04:002009-08-05T23:49:32.441-04:00

Reuters.com reports the percentage of U.S. homeowners that owe more than their house is worth will nearly double to 48 percent in 2011 from 26 percent at the end of March as home prices continue to fall, Deutsche Bank said. Home price declines will have their biggest impact on "conforming" loans that meet the underwriting guidelines of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the bank said in a report. Of

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-20018253808402531322009-08-05T08:25:00.007-04:002009-08-05T12:00:25.904-04:00

WSJ reports the Treasury Department, seeking new ways to help fund its budget deficit, is likely to announce on Wednesday a plan to ramp up sales of inflation-protected bonds, according to people familiar with the matter. China, the largest holder of U.S. government debt, is among investors that have indicated to the Treasury that they want to buy more of the securities, which offer protection

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-35206355623111441112009-08-04T10:42:00.005-04:002009-08-04T10:55:47.865-04:00

Don't blink because this thing could be at $8-$9-$10 in a blink with its microfloat... the flip side of that is it could be back at $6 in a blink too. I am playing the long side and can certainly see this thing become a momentum favorite as it has some real fundamentals and is in an interesting sector - China, energy, tech, low PE, low float. That could seem sort of sexy to traders...Also, my

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-73356986410809208282009-08-04T08:38:00.000-04:002009-08-04T08:39:11.422-04:00

Goldman Sachs CEO tells employees to avoid making big-ticket, high-profile purchases - NY Post (164.10)NY Post reports co CEO has warned his employees to avoid making big-ticket, high-profile purchases as the gold-plated Wall Street co hunkers down amid a firestorm of public and political anger over outsize bonus payments. According to sources at the bank, Blankfein says purchases should be

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-28573763153158161312009-08-03T19:49:00.002-04:002009-08-03T19:50:35.629-04:00

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-26635235341981522252009-08-03T17:15:00.005-04:002009-08-03T18:05:00.320-04:00

reported great earnings after hours. DGW I rec'd at under 22 and it will open tomorrow above 33 - nice move.I see a similar result when RCON reports results this month. The full year earnings on that stock could be $1.10-$1.20+ and the stock trades at $6 right now. With RCON's float of less than 2 million it could easily double within a few days after it gets recognized and becomes a momo

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-70202018438632455312009-08-03T10:03:00.003-04:002009-08-03T12:58:09.125-04:00

Well, as I expected the rally in the S&P is looking to squeeze up to 1000 or higher here. A part of this is being driven by the dollar dropping. The commodities are working today as well. Sorry for the limited posting lately, but I have been out of town quite a bit.Where will the rally stop - seems like there may be some more squeeze power left from where I sit, but a lot of shorts will line

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-48054858046710450532009-07-31T10:11:00.004-04:002009-07-31T10:24:45.903-04:00

This is super speculative pick (but that seems to be what some readers are looking for), so be careful. The pick is RCON and is a very small IPO by an underwriter I do not know of, of a Chinese company (see the risk?). Still, it has the potential to really move as its got a microfloat of 1.7 million shares is profitable (made .87 a share in the first nine months of 2009 on big year over year

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-57337026892993851432009-07-24T09:20:00.004-04:002009-07-24T14:59:45.182-04:00

DGW is... this is actually the only individual stock I have ever touted on this site. Hope you got some as my $30 target is in reach (premarket trading at $29).I will try to add more individual stock selection to this site.Market down slightly although it doesn't feel like a crash is imminent (although a 1-2% down day would not surprise me) and I see resolution to the upside before long. There

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-65469836821830553492009-07-23T14:40:00.006-04:002009-07-23T16:33:47.568-04:00

You will lose yo' a$$ fighting moves like this as a short. Better to step aside and let it go. Even if you are skeptical of the rally (as I am) I have for the most part not gotten drilled too bad by the 10% runup in the last week despite my bearish bias. I imagine there will be a miss by a major company soon that will cause a sell off, but with the momentum like this - too hard for me to

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-61142377675943004052009-07-23T10:40:00.003-04:002009-07-23T10:51:57.703-04:00

for those paying attention. i have mentioned before that dollar devaluation is a reason the market could move higher than "true" fundamentals indicate. maybe that's happening here as the longs will surely look to tag S&P 1000 (in the coming days/weeks) now that we are in range... why do those round numbers end up being points that seem to always end up getting hit... it's like $100 on a stock -

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-10868201024587641852009-07-23T08:32:00.011-04:002009-07-23T10:38:16.847-04:00

Still, not sure how much more the bulls can push it with out some sort of pullback. I just can't see how investors seems to think everything is fine and we are going back to the good ole' days this quickly. Nevertheless, the market isn't always rationale as we all know. Therefore my stops on my SDS is right under $50 and QID right under $28. Better be wrong and out with very small losses in

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-74059425193149388182009-07-22T15:51:00.006-04:002009-07-22T15:59:31.539-04:00

looking for a pullback near term in the markets... these are trades and will be closed in a day or two regardless...the SDS (2x short S&P 500)the QID (2x short the Naz 100) - Naz 100 has been up 11 days in a row!stops will go below today's lows in these etfs (said another way above the highs in the markets today) - so the stops are tight here. either i'm right or i am out quick.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-23298222265415319422009-07-22T09:37:00.004-04:002009-07-22T09:53:44.996-04:00

Got a few emails if I still like these positions. I absolutely do although it could be a real bumpy ride I think these are great ways to both protect yourself and potentially be positioned for huge upside. Also, are there a lot of fat people that come to my site - the lose weight ads are like the only thing that gets run here? WTF.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-8830879212721638182009-07-21T16:12:00.002-04:002009-07-21T16:34:39.183-04:00

can keep the long vibe going... since AAPL always seems to beat and then guide way low, I am sure the longs will find a way to be happy at least into the open tomorrow.I will be a buyer of TBT (2x short long term treasuries) if it get back down to $50

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-10220117317029179492009-07-21T09:26:00.004-04:002009-07-21T09:37:07.396-04:00

that is a little different than just oversold stocks bouncing... could bring new money in. imagine shorts will go after the open today - do the longs squeeze them out up to 1000 (S&P) or will the shorts win today.think today is a level the shorts MAY be able to but a temporary dent in the momo, but longs have been strong and short has been wrong...

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-57905678114917679862009-07-20T20:37:00.001-04:002009-07-20T20:41:08.209-04:00

The Daily Show With Jon StewartMon - Thurs 11p / 10cPyramid Economywww.thedailyshow.comDaily Show Full EpisodesPolitical HumorJoke of the Day

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-62722659145862273522009-07-20T15:04:00.002-04:002009-07-20T15:07:56.462-04:00

that would be a logical shorting spot it would seem. late shorts haven taken a wild ride the last week as the market has ripped 8% higher after taking several weeks to fall that much...

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-51526485282409987562009-07-20T10:08:00.000-04:002009-07-20T10:09:15.601-04:00

as I expected (searh DGW on this site for my other commentary)... just wish I had a bunch of it. Perfect example of being right but not making much money on the idea!

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-36814153519456813782009-07-20T08:10:00.000-04:002009-07-20T08:11:11.571-04:00

From Businessweekhttp://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D99HPNSO0.htm

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-67630046330888809952009-07-17T09:04:00.001-04:002009-07-17T09:15:30.872-04:00

really started to run yesterday - I hope you had some I sold most of mine pretty much at the low of the pullback for a small profit - damn. I bet we see $30 in this one before it's all said and done.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-91753686214756984482009-07-16T10:53:00.001-04:002009-07-16T10:53:47.563-04:00

DJ reports FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair believes up to 500 more banks could fail, a U.S. senator said Bair told him in a recent meeting. "She told us that unless something dramatic happens, we could lose up to 500 more banks," Sen. Jim Bunning, R-Ky., said Thursday at a hearing of the Senate Banking Committee on the foreclosure crisis. Bunning said Bair made the remarks in a recent meeting. "That

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-63576992294560756102009-07-15T16:46:00.002-04:002009-07-15T16:47:00.543-04:00

check link http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2009/07/five-reasons-to-fear-inflation.html

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-42073919309773980112009-07-15T16:08:00.001-04:002009-07-15T16:09:34.103-04:00

I really don't have a feel for where we are going but go think we could see the dollar start to break down here as the place to add to bond shorts was last week. As I mentioned then - I don't know how you would lose money over the next 10 years short US Treasury Bonds at these prices.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-39581283126754147242009-07-15T09:32:00.002-04:002009-07-15T09:33:58.923-04:00

Rob from the rich to give to the poor - this is the new Obama America. read more for articleHouse Plans to Tax Millionaires to Fund U.S. Health-Care Plan By Ryan J. Donmoyer and Kristin JensenJuly 15 (Bloomberg) -- House Democrats plan to fund the broadest U.S. health-care expansion in four decades by increasing taxes on the wealthiest Americans, imposing a surtax of 5.4 percent on couples with

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-24055550387878320742009-07-14T21:30:00.003-04:002009-07-14T21:37:45.653-04:00

YOU SHOULD BE ENRAGED!Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-37374765742823033532009-07-14T21:26:00.004-04:002009-07-15T11:16:15.019-04:00

just buy Goldman because they are the market and it just makes me mad, apparently not just me - watch Gaspi get the hook at the end of this. read more for linkhttp://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/gasparino-tells-cnbc-to-stop-protecting.html

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-377747119889403572009-07-14T09:59:00.000-04:002009-07-14T10:00:39.963-04:00

click read more if you would like to read the AP articleWASHINGTON (AP) — In a year of eye-popping numbers, add one more: The government's annual budget deficit has topped $1 trillion.And with three months left in the budget year, it will actually get even worse. The administration is projecting that the deficit will hit $1.84 trillion for the current budget year, four times the size of last

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-37284102551061220782009-07-14T09:45:00.001-04:002009-07-14T09:45:45.473-04:00

in the day...

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-3348065211659003262009-07-14T08:23:00.001-04:002009-07-14T08:23:59.346-04:00

FT reports executives at GS sold almost $700 mln worth of stock following the collapse of Lehman Brothers last September, according to filings with the SEC. Most of the sales occurred during the period in which the investment bank enjoyed the support of $10 bln from the troubled asset relief program. The surge in selling among Goldman partners, at a time when the US government had thrown a

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-6283588958284343232009-07-11T11:28:00.003-04:002009-07-11T11:43:28.478-04:00

I think this is really good stuff. Listen and let me know if you agree. For those new to the blog we mix trading talk with a little bit of my music picks here.Read mo' for the video...

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-86188783468924044342009-07-11T11:22:00.002-04:002009-07-11T11:25:27.098-04:00

Apparently I am going to a "block party". I guess those still happen. I hope you all are having a good weekend. Enjoy yourself - remember the best trade you will ever make is "going long" enjoying life and family and friends.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-2116069475685610232009-07-10T08:21:00.002-04:002009-07-10T08:26:18.301-04:00

Financial Times reports China has launched its highest-profile criticism of the dominant role of the US dollar as a global reserve currency at a meeting of the world's biggest economies. Dai Bingguo, Chinese state counselor, raised the issue on Thursday when he joined the leaders of four other emerging economies for talks with the leaders of the Group of Eight industrialized nations -- including

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-56914578732290350492009-07-09T23:11:00.007-04:002009-07-09T23:21:32.266-04:00

but not really "feeling" the market right now...so I step aside and watch. I will add some random thoughts on trading this weekend. I think embracing the emotional side of trading actually makes you a better trader. So I'll have some thoughts on that as well as my long awaited "trading on tilt" article! ok, maybe not long awaited but that sells right?Anybody wanna talk about anything in

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-28839786777771865902009-07-09T23:03:00.001-04:002009-07-09T23:05:22.209-04:00

Click read more to see video

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-73068391169206150282009-07-09T08:51:00.002-04:002009-07-09T15:30:36.896-04:00

One thing I do want to note is that over the next 15 years I think if you short US bonds there is almost no scenario I can see how you won't make money. I will go into detail this weekend on why I feel this.stopped out of DGW for a $1 gain but had $4 at one point. still think this stock sees $30 sometime but...

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-88623386066736674192009-07-08T15:50:00.003-04:002009-07-08T15:52:44.805-04:00

All commodities down (except DBA)Treasury Bonds up hugeAnd now the market is up!That is contra almost every position I have except the few commodity puts I own.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-73051388757884882912009-07-08T15:04:00.002-04:002009-07-08T15:05:05.617-04:00

against making money if you are long these things - unreal, but I guess it is real - cause it's happening.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-574571024057060322009-07-08T12:33:00.003-04:002009-07-08T12:34:55.915-04:00

Not a good day to be long commodities as groundhog day continues for with my shorts working but longs in commodities killing me. I have scaled out of some of these plays - unfortunately.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-12004942406695469472009-07-08T08:23:00.006-04:002009-07-08T08:50:29.967-04:00

and strangely its the precious metals leading the way down.also, bonds and the stock market are slightly bid.I may be taking some of my commods off today as I am reaching a point of heavy frustration and thinking about these positions too much. I find when you start thinking a lot about your positions when the market is closed (in a frustrated way) you probably have too much size or need to exit

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-33400475493300936612009-07-07T23:12:00.007-04:002009-07-07T23:26:06.276-04:00

I think or say the the term, "that's f-ing bullsh*t!" the most, even if it is not true - I still say it.I hear people say how you need to remain calm and do this and do that. I agree to some extent, but sometimes you have to yell (even if only in your mind) at the computer too. That's not really a trading tip. But, maybe setting a stop or closing your position, yelling at the computer and then

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-45575644999640460702009-07-07T21:10:00.001-04:002009-07-07T21:10:57.767-04:00

CNBC link HERE

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-88509874997702040442009-07-07T16:03:00.003-04:002009-07-07T17:30:50.163-04:00

Commodities Rocked (I am long commodities with a little put protection)Market goes down (I am short the market)Treasuries get bought (I am short treasuries)I outperform the marketBut lose money on an absolute basis due to my commodities exposure.About to sell 1/2 of everything I own to get a fresh start as I feel myself getting frustrated and that's when I am bound to make mistakes (even though I

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-13978938683488404052009-07-06T16:45:00.003-04:002009-07-06T16:48:22.427-04:00

I am disappointed by the performance of the precious metals in this environment. Seems like the should be performing better, but maybe I have better too one-sided in my view of the asset class. What am I missing?I am probably on my longest stagnant performance streak in 4-5 years. It is a tough market but I feel like I should be doing better.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-25873440110336526482009-07-06T08:11:00.008-04:002009-07-06T09:36:03.511-04:00

Good news is I will be stopped out (I will give it 10 cents below its open and then sell out) and stop having to worry about this POS... well, I guess that's really not good news. But I have had about enough fun with UNG for the time being. UNG is a trade I got up about 15% on and will end up taking a loss of about 10% (and this happened all in a few weeks).Also, all commodities getting rocked

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-1682938441156274682009-07-05T08:42:00.003-04:002009-07-05T08:48:40.437-04:00

Representative Mark Kirk (R-IL) said this recently after his trip to China... uh...oh: "China has lent about $300 billion to the US for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They're very worried about that; another $700 billion in treasury bills. And. they're particularly worried about the feds new policy of buying treasury debt. Cause they're worried that one part of the federal government is buying

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-78653594018768357482009-07-04T12:18:00.000-04:002009-07-04T12:19:07.229-04:00

Back with some market stuff tomorrow. Enjoy the day.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-14700979458628405022009-07-03T10:56:00.002-04:002009-07-04T12:18:30.012-04:00

my family, barbeques, my wife, my friends for the Fourth.I hope you are too.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-56638875440748274372009-07-02T20:35:00.005-04:002009-07-02T20:51:06.565-04:00

I like all this guy's sh..........iit. After this week I need a song like this, Ok. it's alright with me - Eric Hutchinson.Click it or ticket

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-88431141913924778792009-07-02T15:57:00.006-04:002009-07-02T16:23:04.591-04:00

My market shorts helped soften the blow (and DGW long helped a bit) but still got hit as all of the commodity plays got rocked. I way outperformed the market loss today but still lost. And I am not about outperformance, I am about absolute performance. Feels like I am grinding out nothing repeatedly. Tough market to play if you aren't trading by the minute for scalps. Just when you think you

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-58532672894707713322009-07-02T14:09:00.005-04:002009-07-02T14:12:59.433-04:00

UNG is continuing dropping the hammer on longs as this "piece" can't gain any traction. Maybe soon people will be giving away natty gas for free. My stop is set under 52 week lows which is rapidly approaching. I hate you UNG.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-10722164549820381222009-07-02T12:57:00.010-04:002009-07-02T13:45:13.606-04:00

Weakness pretty much everywhere so far with very limited bouncing back so far. All the precious metals stuff getting tagged more than I'd like to see today. The GLD and SLV have traded in really tight ranges so far today so look for a break of that daily range either way for a possible entry today (I will be). It seems these metals are now riding up and down correlated with equities. So much

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-2380880663876536312009-07-02T09:43:00.008-04:002009-07-02T16:12:30.547-04:00

For just about everything other than my short market positions. My gut tells me buying the gap down around 9 hundo in the S&P may be the way to play today. I will be posting some thoughts around noon EST today.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-60028653704041772052009-07-01T20:21:00.001-04:002009-07-01T20:22:36.722-04:00

Here's a great video if you are a gold bull (click read more for the video). This guy has a pretty good following.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-48909426636905499662009-07-01T17:54:00.006-04:002009-07-01T17:57:03.519-04:00

From Agora Financial: The S&P 500 finished the second quarter of 2009 with a 15.2% gain, its best quarter since 1998. Since March lows, the index is up nearly 35%. For all of 2009, the S&P is just above break-even.So the obvious question: Where do we go from here? Was the second quarter a fluke -- a simple snapback of oversold stocks? Or a new bull market? For an answer, we sought out the

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5226926514942311594.post-89298920097405918432009-07-01T12:53:00.004-04:002009-07-01T14:49:04.425-04:00

If history is your guide, you might want to buy some gold today - Right Now.“In our current eight-year bull market,” writes Jeff Clark for Casey Research. “June has seen the lowest return for gold. In other words, it’s been, on average, one of the best times to buy.

The Honest Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02698848793316624374noreply@blogger.com0