The Honest Trader

ouch...

2010-01-21T19:49:00.002-05:00

more pain to come?i would bet on it.i imagine while the banks still have prop desks they will show there disapproval by shorting the shit out of the market.still, i think obama is right here (from a long term perspective) on this and i am a republican.

a down day, but again a huge afternoon rip

2010-01-20T16:03:00.002-05:00

to really limit the damage. per everyday buying dips is the play. if history plays out we will gap (as we will be bought up after hours and overnight) and go tomorrow and eliminate all the losses today and maybe even break to new highs.at one point today it looks like longs may have been about to break but then the magic bid came in again in the afternoon and we ripped into the close to

well here we go again - market rips higher early

2010-01-19T09:49:00.003-05:00

qqqq's have regained basically all the losses inside of 20 mins and SPY well on its wayi tell you you can not short this market regardless right nowthrow all history precedent aside and just buy every fricking dipi still am out of this mess but wish I could just go against my gut and just load the boat long on every dip because there has been serious money made just ripping shorts every dip...

well, markets closed today but futures are up

2010-01-18T10:21:00.006-05:00

you can't stop the Monday up moves even after down days and on days the markets closed. should we really be surprised...we will see how it plays out tomorrow, if the market regains even 3/4 of the losses on friday shorts will once again be ready to run for cover and 1150 S&P could be ready to burst.that said i'll stick with my gut from friday and say we touch at least 1120 before we get back to

The beginning of something more than the one and done correction

2010-01-16T08:20:00.003-05:00

yesterday felt different didn't it... i think this may be the beginning of the overdue correction.everything sold off and it was on good news (intc and jpm earnings)they always say the news is the best at the top and worst at the bottomi would argue there have been several warning signs the last week in the economic numbers that the bulls have ignoredthat said, everytime we have had a one day

The game is fixed - for now

2010-01-12T16:15:00.002-05:00

i mean how the F do we rally everyday at the end of the day and then in the early hours of the futures markets on no real news (most of the time)?why isnt someone asking these questions? i know if we fell everyday into the close or overnight, we would hear all kinds of ruckus about short sellers, manipulation, etc.2009 has taught me that manipulating markets is fine as long as it helps the

A gapping we will go

2009-12-23T07:35:00.001-05:00

up again - almost seems too easy for this market to go up... but, hey, I guess everything is fine again and we are in a new multi-year bull market. get long so they say on CNBC...

Bailout BS

2009-12-22T22:25:00.001-05:00

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/108455/wall-street-alchemy-turns-bailout-into-goldunreal, but the truth - i do think the big banks actually run the world

Higher we go...

2009-12-21T19:37:00.001-05:00

feels like the bulls are about rip us higher. I actually think they can. Not much else to do except buy dips and not get short I guess.

More of the same BS

2009-12-18T16:05:00.003-05:00

market seems off hard yesterday on big volume. Next day - bulls rip us right back up.Can't fight this market. It is a long only, buy every f-ing dip blindly type market. yesterday, banks look ready to tank - today someone had to own these banks and they rallied. same pattern again and again - just when it looks like any sector / index will break - someone saves the day...As I have said it

All the big banks getting rid of TARP before year end - WHY?

2009-12-14T20:19:00.002-05:00

ummm... think about it. TARP has bonus restrictions mandated... with TARP paid back the banks can pay huge bonuses with all the free money they got! notice most of these big banks have huge capital markets/trading operations versus just retail banking...nice trade big banks!

We have a long-only market

2009-12-14T14:31:00.004-05:00

I know I have not posted much lately but not a lot to say into year end. We have a market where you can only be long because the momentum / action all favors buying dips at all times. In fact, for the most part stock picking hasn't even mattered as long as you were LONG you made money. The CNBC spinners are working full time to support the bullish mindset and bad news is shrugged off or somehow

I am back again

2009-12-08T20:20:00.001-05:00

after google took the blog off for a few days for some reason?

Everything back to normal

2009-11-30T16:50:00.002-05:00

Market rallies in the last hour per usual. Surprisingly, banks and reits rocket back higher than they were before Dubai even happened. This was shocking to me...Tough market to play unless you buy, buy, buy. I have a feeling this will end very badly for longs but when is the question. As of right now, I see no fear in the longs and the buy the dip has worked so easily it's hard to stop doing it

Looks like it will be a "black" Friday for the US Markets

2009-11-26T10:06:00.001-05:00

Futures down big on this Dubai news and a worldwide selloff...

Dubai Debt Problems Could Rattle Market Friday

2009-11-26T09:03:00.001-05:00

Look for the banks to get ripped...Dubai said on Wednesday that the delayed repayment of debt was a first step toward restructuring Dubai World, the conglomerate that spearheaded the emirate's breakneck growth.The news has sent the cost of insuring Dubai's debt against default soaring and bond prices tumbling.State-run Dubai World has $59 billion of liabilities, its subsidiary Nakheel said in

Is chasing performance a viable investment strategy?

2009-11-25T19:25:00.001-05:00

I hear about how the market is going to go up because people are chasing performance.I ask you is that a viable investment strategy or reason to be long?

Prechter makes a 200% short call (all-in short call)

2009-11-25T18:32:00.000-05:00

check the articlehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/elliott-wave-adviser-now-aggressively-bearish-2009-11-25

Gap and Crap?

2009-11-25T09:05:00.001-05:00

Market gapping up, but is this a set up fro a "gap and crap" or do we just rocket thru highs the day before Thanksgiving?Oh, and dollar down and market/gold up again... what else is new?

Interesting how major economic data is consistently revised lower

2009-11-24T21:02:00.002-05:00

weeks after it made its impact on the market.today, 3rd quarter GDP was revised from 3.5% to 2.8%. If you remember a few weeks ago the market went ballistic when we had the 3.5% which was above the 3% forecast. But, since it is weeks later it doesn't matter. Ever since March this revised lower after the fact has been going on.strange, huh?

Same report as usual

2009-11-23T16:37:00.000-05:00

dollar down, market up, gold upnothing really else to report

Back from a little break

2009-11-16T07:41:00.002-05:00

market still in full go-go mode I see... supported by the dollar continuing it's dump - down another 0.5% this morning... who knew it was this easy to work the stock market up and help the wealthiest people by hurting the poorest...

Perfect 10 - 10.2 to be exact

2009-11-06T08:51:00.007-05:00

Serious "realistic" damage done today to the bull case as unemployment soars to a reported 10.2% well above the analysts 9.9% estimate. Remember, the market is up over 3% this week in anticipation of this report.This is highest since 1983, but who knows the bulls will find some silver lining to bid up stocks right?Oh - and for those playing along at home the "Adverse Case" unemployment for 2009

Bob Prechter - Rally Ova!

2009-11-05T14:11:00.001-05:00

I am shocked by the strength in the market today

2009-11-05T10:50:00.003-05:00

nothing else I can say except wow or WTF?But taking daytrading short right here at S&P 1063 and Naz 2102

Trick or Treat - Longs Get Tricked, Shorts Get Treats!

2009-10-30T16:03:00.005-04:00

BOOYAH - Shorts get paid Part 2!Shorts got paid as hell today (myself included). Looks like my thoughts about yesterday's move being ridiculous was actually right.Now next week the longs could really be on the run. This is a true character change in the market.Be back later but out for now as I had a big day after a lousy day yesterday. Good week overall for yours truly although it did not come

Booyah - Longs Get Paid

2009-10-29T16:15:00.002-04:00

That sucked for shorts...somehow everytime the market looks like it is going to really correct (closed below the 50 DMA yesterday) buying comes in - I mean everytime since March... i might even start thinking some of the conspiracy theorists are right!once again after getting f'ing rocked on huge volume yesterday the buyers step in on minimal volume and shoot us back thru yesterday's starting

Booyah - Shorts Get Paid

2009-10-28T16:05:00.009-04:00

What do you know? The dip buyers became ripped buyers today. As discussed here I shorted with size at the S&P 1090ish level. I also mentioned shorting China yesterday which came off big today. These shorts have paid handsomely. The fantasy recovery may very well be unraveling now as irrational exuberance subsides. Tomorrow GDP which may print OK for the bulls to try to buy us up into month

Will we see continued weakness?

2009-10-27T09:28:00.000-04:00

market about even this morning...

The seesaw continues

2009-10-26T09:46:00.001-04:00

markets jumping early today for no reason

It's a "bull" market

2009-10-23T08:37:00.001-04:00

MSFT beats big as expected

Do we get confirmation of a move lower today?

2009-10-22T08:34:00.002-04:00

Initials claims higher than expected... that will hurt the bull bounce case today

Dollar getting beat up again

2009-10-21T13:25:00.002-04:00

This is scaring me. At some point the general stock market may get concerned about a currency crisis. But until then dollar down stocks up!

Today's market thoughts string - read the comments

2009-10-20T08:23:00.001-04:00

I post my thoughts in the comments section

Market thoughts string

2009-10-19T09:47:00.001-04:00

See comments as this post is just to open my market comments in real-time.

Dylan Ratigan on the Goldman Sachs Quarter - it's Magic!

2009-10-18T09:46:00.000-04:00

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

We have an "It's all good!" stock market

2009-10-13T17:49:00.007-04:00

Whatever happens - "It's all good!" Unemployment at 10% and getting worse - It's all good!Market up 60% in a few months - It's all good!Dollar going to shit - It's all good!Gold through the roof - It's all good!Foreclosures at all-time highs - It's all good!Banks failing left and right - It's all good!FDIC is broke - It's all good!Government spending out of control - It's all good!Low analyst

Feels like there are real sellers out there today

2009-10-13T10:11:00.008-04:00

Volume upGS downgraded by Whitney - What Government Sachs downgraded? That's legal?JNJ beat on lower sales and tax rateCSCO announces dilutive acquisitionLet's see how they close this market ahead of earnings that will need to be great to keep this momo flowing... Banks weak early, Naz stronger early...Will this be the the day buying the dip gets you burnt? Probably not as buyers will surely come

Rallying S&P 500 Never Cheaper in Europe on Dollar-- Bloomberg.com

2009-10-12T12:45:00.003-04:00

I am still not a buyer here but...Bloomberg.com ran a story this morning with an interesting take on the valuation of the stock market. Excerpts from the story: Investors outside the U.S. are purchasing companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index at the cheapest valuations on record, their buying power boosted by a seven-month decline in the dollar... The S&P 500 is priced at 19.9 times earnings

I am having a tough time buying even individual stocks in this market

2009-10-12T10:50:00.012-04:00

It just feels too complacent for the situation the world is really in to me (unemployment, higher taxes coming, govt debt, cost cutting earnings beats, inventory restocking GDP bounce). Feels like people are just buying because the market is going up and not on some real long-term thesis (possibly a lot of stock renters here rather than long term buyers). I am worried about some event happening

Dollar reaches breaking point as banks shift reserves

2009-10-12T07:42:00.002-04:00

Bloomberg.com reports central banks flush with record reserves are increasingly snubbing dollars in favor of euros and yen, further pressuring the greenback after its biggest two- quarter rout in almost two decades. Policy makers boosted foreign currency holdings by $413 billion last quarter, the most since at least 2003, to $7.3 trillion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Nations

Is DOW 10,000 inevitable this week?

2009-10-11T21:26:00.001-04:00

Do we have to at least kiss 10k just to do it before any selloff can happen?Lots of big earnings this week, surely the banks will beat with crazy accounting and one time gains... will investors keep buying "it"?

The TBT long from yesterday works briliantly - maybe a new swing

2009-10-09T11:07:00.008-04:00

The TBT long from yesterday has worked for over $2. This is the ultra short long term US treasury. Clearly looks like a trend change in long term bonds after yesterday's auction. If you follow this blog you know I am already short a core position in long term UST's. A new possible swing today I am looking at is the VXX (currently at $47.35). Basically, an ETF that tracks the VIX ("fear gauge"

Music from ALO

2009-10-08T20:02:00.001-04:00

kind of groovy and funny...

If it's not the dollar - BUY IT

2009-10-08T11:20:00.006-04:00

Dollar down, everything else up - even treasuries? what?This will work until it doesn't and could end badly.That said the short play is clearly loaded so a-squeezing we will go...wish i would have waited for a retest of highs before committing short, now I may get stopped and watch us reverse down. so my gut was wrong on that short - it happens, possibly take the loss and move on...my long

Shorting into this rally at S&P 1053

2009-10-06T09:47:00.003-04:00

stop above recent highs (about 2% above) - this is a swing short

Precious metals finally going to start the "REAL" breakout

2009-10-05T16:32:00.005-04:00

Precious metals (PMs) were up today with gold getting very near its all-time high again today. One thing I noticed last week was that the PMs were strong even when the dollar was up and the market was down which is a divergence that could have been the tell for this next move higher. Plus, I have been hearing alot of people talking about gold pulling back lately (even bulls on gold saying I will

RINO (Rino International) Rally Monkey!

2009-10-05T13:54:00.006-04:00

Sulfur Scrubbing Gets A Boost As China Cracks Down On Pollution - RINO in IBD

2009-10-04T10:51:00.000-04:00

RINO IBD article can be found - HERE

Buying some trading shares in RINO (RINO International) this morning

2009-10-02T09:16:00.007-04:00

Stock has sold off from almost $22 yesterday to $18 this morning (premarket). 10 DMA is a little below $18.Remember this Company will work in any economic environment because China has mandated that their customers install RINO's systems. Also, if you net the $2 a share in cash out of RINO's stock price @ $18 you have a forward PE of 7.5. Someone in the comments section suggested a $150 stock

More color on RINO (Rino International) and why this monster may just be getting started

2009-09-29T17:09:00.003-04:00

This is a blurb from briefing.com - a great info tool you should think about paying for"RINO is a small cap name we have been following for a while. We initially wrote it up on Jun 24 at $8.75, when it was still trading on the bulletin boards (see InPlay archive). The stock is up 130%, but since then, the co has reported strong Q2 results and the Chinese government has announced tougher pollution

RINO roars, RCON posts $1.04 EPS

2009-09-28T17:12:00.006-04:00

RINO rips up over $20 after entry into the IBD 100.RCON posted their year end numbers today which were $1.04 basic EPS and .99 diluted. Stock trades under $10 with 1.7 million float. Company has a conference call tomorrow morning which will be worth listening to. It only has a 1.7 million share float, so if the momos want to run it they certainly could easily. That said, it needs to get more

RINO (Rino International) goes into the IBD 100 at #2

2009-09-26T08:46:00.004-04:00

As I said it would a month or so ago if it closed above $15 on any upcoming Friday. RINO will get huge exposure from the IBD (Investor Business Daily) and I see over 700,000 short and its debut is at #2. This could be interesting on Monday expecially if the overall market stabilizes. You can search the blog (mid-right of the page) for more color on RINO. This has momo, but it's not just a

Market down - but watch for a quarter end markup?

2009-09-24T12:48:00.003-04:00

I would think the funds might put a little buy pressure into the end of the quarter, but they have put a lot of buy pressure over the last 3 months so let's see how they close September?Not a lot of buying enthusiasm today.

Big Day for The Honest Trader

2009-09-22T19:50:00.002-04:00

Gold, silver and metals stocks up big... and my small caps were up big again. RINO broke out on all time high volume and RCON could be on it's way to running into its earnings release next week. Daddy got paid today, but tomorrow is a new day.

Dollar down again and the market is up again - what else is new?

2009-09-22T19:45:00.004-04:00

Dollar seems to be driving the market everyday.Check this chart of the S&P versus the $ over the last 6 months... apparently the plan is make the dollar worth"less" and other assets can shoot up and make people feel better... that is until consumers start seeing the pain of inflation.

RINO mentioned and recommended on CNBC

2009-09-21T18:28:00.003-04:00

at about the 4:17 mark our RINO was mentioned on CNBC... link belowhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1269517851&play=1not often that my smallcaps get on CNBC...

Been awhile since I posted some music

2009-09-21T18:14:00.004-04:00

All this guy plays is chill music... relaxing, with a weird name Donavon Frankenreiter and a killer "stache".

Ken Fisher is a F'ing Idiot

2009-09-20T19:50:00.004-04:00

This guy is an f'ing idiot and a permabull. Does he really believe what he is saying? People let this guy manage $35 billion of their money?I heard this guy speak directly a few years ago before everything went to hell and he was preaching pretty much the same thing.

Paycheck to paycheck

2009-09-18T11:29:00.000-04:00

Interesting blurb from Agora Financial.30% of Americans making $100,000 or more each year are living paycheck to paycheck, reports a CareerBuilder study this week. That’s up from 21% last year -- a number that still seems awfully high.61% of all Americans say they are in a similar bind… making just enough to finance their lifestyle every month. Just a year ago, 49% were living paycheck to

Hot stock of the day is TRIT (Tri-Tech Holding), some similarities to our Recon (RCON) and RINO

2009-09-17T10:20:00.013-04:00

Tri-Tech Holding, a Chinese company that designs systems to manage and monitor China's municipal sewer systems, natural waterways and resources is up big again today. This is based a newsletter recommendation from what I gather. The company looks interesting. It has aspects of one I really like and have mentioned here - RINO (and also DGW). You can search the blog for that commentary (search

Gold to $4,000? Peter Schiff says so...

2009-09-15T21:21:00.003-04:00

The Greatest Sucker's Rally of All-Time?

2009-09-15T21:07:00.001-04:00

Ron Paul on the Fed

2009-09-15T20:41:00.000-04:00

Back from Vacation

2009-09-15T20:28:00.003-04:00

Was a good vacation and my positions moved mostly in my favor as I was gone.Especially RCON and the precious metals were rolling.Dollar continues to go down and the market continues to go up.I'll be back to more regular updating later this week.

RCON (Recon Technology) & RINO (RINO International) with good news today

2009-09-08T10:42:00.006-04:00

Recon Technology Secures $971,000 in New Equipment Orders for Chinese Oil and Gas FieldsRINO International Corp. Introduces New DXT Desulphurization SystemI still am long these stocks and think both have more to go on the upside. RCON should have earnings shortly and remember the float on RCON is 1.7 million.

China alarmed by US money printing - Daily Telegraph

2009-09-08T10:40:00.000-04:00

Daily Telegraph reports the US Federal Reserve's policy of printing money to buy Treasury debt threatens to set off a serious decline of the dollar and compel China to redesign its foreign reserve policy, according to a top member of the Communist hierarchy. Cheng Siwei, former vice-chairman of the Standing Committee and now head of China's green energy drive, said Beijing was dismayed by the

Going on Vacation

2009-09-06T19:25:00.001-04:00

be back in a week.Where will gold be? Where will the market be? We will see.

Gold/Silver/Gold Stocks Breakout

2009-09-02T22:14:00.001-04:00

As mentioned before here I have been long precious metals for the whole year and it my be breakout time. If you are not long buying a pullback might be the way to go.It could get interesting...

Market Dump...Precious Metals Pump!

2009-09-01T20:51:00.001-04:00

Must say I am not surprised, but could see some back and forth but I think medium term we are probably headed south in the market.Of note - gold and silver outperforming and breaking the recent correlation with the stock market. Do the precious metals soon breakout. I do believe seasonality is on their side.

RINO (Rino International) Update - IBD 100 Potential Runner

2009-08-26T11:20:00.010-04:00

RINO as I have mentioned before should be a top 5 IBD 100 candidate (search blog for my discussion of IBD 100) if it close above $15 on any upcoming Friday (now near $13.5). As you know I re-entered this when in bounced off of its 50 DMA down in the $11 range after taking an initial loss. Does this means RINO gets to $15 this week - by no means. I am simply pointing it out as past IBD entrants

Market starting to feel heavy

2009-08-25T16:42:00.002-04:00

and everyone is scared to short into it... does that mean a reversal may be coming. I think it might. Oil tirned south today and that could be the initial tell. However, short has been wrong and long has been right for the last 50% in this market so who knows. After Labor Day volume should return.

Goldman's Trading Tips - Doesn't seem right...does it?

2009-08-24T09:24:00.001-04:00

The Wall Street Journal reports that critics complain that Goldman's distribution of the trading ideas only to its own traders and key clients hurts other customers who aren't given the opportunity to trade on the information. In fact, every week Goldman analysts offer stock tips at a gathering the firm calls a "trading huddle." But few of the thousands of clients who receive Goldman's written

Morning Commentary

2009-08-21T09:15:00.005-04:00

Market continues its leak north.Oil looks to be a a breakout point. Gold/Silver up early. If oil breaks out it may be worth looking at some smaller cap oil plays for momo buying over the short term. We have some exposure there with RCON, but there are other ways to play that with past momo oil runners.It's hard for me to get excited about being long at these market valuations, so I will stay

Video Discusses Buffett's View on US Spending

2009-08-20T13:17:00.002-04:00

The underlying bid remains

2009-08-20T12:47:00.003-04:00

Markets continue to leak north. Interesting to see the continued strength in both the stock markets and the US bond markets.Also, worth noting that the US markets seems to be keying off of China lately. Just something to note because the US historically led the way...Other things I am watching are oil at a potential breakout/resistance point and financials as those seem to lead us up or

Demand for gold slumps to six-year low - Daily Telegraph

2009-08-19T12:49:00.001-04:00

Daily Telegraph reports demand for gold has fallen to a six-year low in the last quarter as big gold-buying countries such as India and Turkey retreated from high prices. Jewelery buyers, who are the main drivers of the gold price and make up more than 50% of consumption, withdrew from the market with volumes down by 22% in the last quarter. Electronics producers, which need gold for components

Markets recover early losses as dollar heads south again

2009-08-19T12:17:00.006-04:00

The dollar down / market up game is once again in vogue. Surprised that US Treasury bonds are up... I guess it is a long-term bond monetization day for the Fed as they were in the "market" buying US debt. For some reason people have been bidding the hell out of UST the last week.

Buffett says the US could become a Banana Republic? Kind of.

2009-08-19T11:30:00.001-04:00

Click read more for articleWASHINGTON (Reuters) - Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said the U.S. economy has avoided a meltdown and appears on a slow path to recovery, but Congress must now deal with enormous amounts of debt that threaten to erode U.S. purchasing power.In an opinion column published on Wednesday by the New York Times, Buffett wrote that he "resoundingly applauds" actions by

Recon Technology (RCON) Update - Still Like This One For Potentially Big Gains

2009-08-18T16:02:00.008-04:00

RCON continues to fade on low volume and had a disappointing day today as it did not rebound with the market. Fact is this thing just doesn't get any attention (and small amounts of selling are dropping the stock). However, when a few bigger fish fall onto this one or when it reports north of $1 in EPS within the next few weeks, a run to the double digits could be a quick journey as with its

RINO Re-entry

2009-08-18T13:49:00.003-04:00

I got back on the RINO bus as I mentioned I might yesterday. Today we see a nice bounce off the 50 DMA. And my stop is slightly below yesterday's lows. The valuation and tech setup was too good to pass up despite the bad timing on the initial call.

OUCH!

2009-08-17T10:09:00.008-04:00

Longs getting murdered / commodities getting murdered / RINO/RCON getting murdered...at least my short positions are up big, but not overtaking the losses from my long positions in other areas today.Stopped out of RINO, but may look to re-enter as now the valuation looks really compelling, but hard to fight the tape here. Sorry about that pick...clearly my worst of 09 from a timing perspective.

Have a good weekend

2009-08-15T09:57:00.001-04:00

I'll be back later this weekend with some additional thoughts.

A potential IBD 100 trading idea - RINO (RINO International Corporation)

2009-08-13T15:56:00.012-04:00

This is a stock that has had a big move but pulled back since reporting good but not good enough earnings after strong move. It's another China play (like my recent picks RCON, DGW - you can click the blue RCON for that recommendation) - this time on environmental protection equipment. Has been compared to DGW which is a water treatment IPO that I nailed for a 50%+ gain this year. You may say

What's going on today - a lot of nothing

2009-08-13T14:28:00.009-04:00

Market bouncing around today a lot as the indecision is evident (with what feels like an underlying bullish bias). Stopped out of the rest of my TBT for a 50 cent gain (sad thin is premarket this was up $1.2 more) today as the long bond auction is being hailed as strong (I will look to reenter around "fitty"). Economic data this morning was poor in my opinion and does shoot some holes in the "

Short Interest way down in July - Contrarian Sign?

2009-08-12T13:58:00.004-04:00

Short interest on the S&P 500 is down to its lowest level since February. Investors were short 8.7 billion shares of the index at the end of July, Bloomberg reports today. That’s a 12% drop in just two weeks. Shorts reduced bets against financials the most, down 31%. Make of this what you will, but feels like one piece of the contrarian puzzle that has me starting to lean short again. That said,

Selling 1/2 of my TBT from yesterday for $1.15 gain - nice trade

2009-08-12T13:08:00.008-04:00

As I mentioned yesterday my trade was only for $1-2 on this TBT. Therefore, taking half off for $1.15. Moving stop up to 51.49 on the remaining piece.10 yr UST auction results sort of weak here so could go further but locking in gains ahead of the Fed.Nice, low stress gain on this one for me.I still maintain a longer term bearish position and view of long term US bonds.

Update on positions, one new trade - TBT Long

2009-08-11T10:21:00.007-04:00

I just bought the TBT (2x short long term treasuries at $50.9). Took a 1/2 position will buy more at $50 if it gets there. A little risky in front of the Fed but less so now that it has sold off the past few days. Looking for $1-2 on this trade as I already have a core short position in long term treasuries through a short on the TLT.Letting my remaining short positions from Friday ride (as of

Locking profits on 1/2 of my short exposure from Friday afternoon

2009-08-10T14:35:00.005-04:00

As mentioned here I bought SRS/SKF and shorted some additional SPY on Friday afternoon. I am banking profits on half of my exposure. I think we have more to pullback but going to take the solid gains in one day off the table, especially with the longs continued late day squeeze fetish still in style.The SRS good for 6%, SKF for 3.0%, SPY for 1%.

Recon Technology, Ltd. Profile – A Small Cap Chinese, Energy-Focused, IT Company

2009-08-08T16:13:00.015-04:00

Recon Technology (RCON) is an interesting microcap company that IPO’ed last week which I think has huge potential for gains in the near and long term. First, the company is very small, so if you don’t like volatility you can stop reading right now as the company has a current market cap of around $30 million.What does the company do? Actually it looks pretty interesting. Recon Technology, Ltd.

Market likes the employment data early today, what about later?

2009-08-07T08:41:00.009-04:00

Some OK things that CNBC will be jumping up and down about but it's not "all good". Excerpt below is with the help of briefing.com (a great info site)."Payroll losses were reported across nearly every major category, with the exception of small increases in education and health services (+17K), leisure and hospitality (+9K) and government (+7K). Additionally, 1 out of every 6 workers over the

Chart of the Market in the Depression and Today - WOW!

2009-08-06T20:53:00.004-04:00

Look at the chart below - today's market almost a mirror of 1929-32. If we are going into a similar cycle watch out below because this rally may be near it's end. In fact I laid a small short line on the S&P out today. I will be looking to add if we can have one last exhaustion spike...Need more evidence..from October 29, 1929 until November 13, 1929, the stock market collapsed 49% (2008's was

BoE raises quantitative easing total to 175 bln sterling - more priniting!

2009-08-06T08:40:00.004-04:00

BoE raises quantitative easing total to 175 bln sterling, holds rates - ReutersReuters reports the Bank of England extended its quantitative easing programme on Thursday, raising the size of its bond purchase scheme to an unexpectedly large 175 billion pounds from 125 billion, and held interest rates at 0.5 percent. The decision enables the central bank to continue its programme of asset

Recon Technologies Inc. Video - Finally Getting Noticed!

2009-08-05T23:41:00.007-04:00

This thing is up 50% since I recommended it at $6 last week... nice. Like I said, momo traders picking it up and I expect $1.10-$1.20 to be reported in the next couple weeks so you could argue it's still cheap. Would $15+ be out of the question?Also, DGW up another 7%+ today... hope you guys have bought some of these most recent rec's.This thing is up 50% since I recommended it at 6 last week...

Nearly half of mortgages seen underwater by '11 - That's not good!

2009-08-05T15:27:00.004-04:00

Reuters.com reports the percentage of U.S. homeowners that owe more than their house is worth will nearly double to 48 percent in 2011 from 26 percent at the end of March as home prices continue to fall, Deutsche Bank said. Home price declines will have their biggest impact on "conforming" loans that meet the underwriting guidelines of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the bank said in a report. Of

Treasury plans for more sales of TIPS - because China says so?

2009-08-05T08:25:00.007-04:00

WSJ reports the Treasury Department, seeking new ways to help fund its budget deficit, is likely to announce on Wednesday a plan to ramp up sales of inflation-protected bonds, according to people familiar with the matter. China, the largest holder of U.S. government debt, is among investors that have indicated to the Treasury that they want to buy more of the securities, which offer protection

RCON - Recon Technology: Moving up near all time highs on strong volume

2009-08-04T10:42:00.005-04:00

Don't blink because this thing could be at $8-$9-$10 in a blink with its microfloat... the flip side of that is it could be back at $6 in a blink too. I am playing the long side and can certainly see this thing become a momentum favorite as it has some real fundamentals and is in an interesting sector - China, energy, tech, low PE, low float. That could seem sort of sexy to traders...Also, my

Goldman tells employees to stop acting "Goldman"

2009-08-04T08:38:00.000-04:00

Goldman Sachs CEO tells employees to avoid making big-ticket, high-profile purchases - NY Post (164.10)NY Post reports co CEO has warned his employees to avoid making big-ticket, high-profile purchases as the gold-plated Wall Street co hunkers down amid a firestorm of public and political anger over outsize bonus payments. According to sources at the bank, Blankfein says purchases should be

"A lot of room to the upside for gold"

2009-08-03T19:49:00.002-04:00

DGW - one I have mentioned many times before

2009-08-03T17:15:00.005-04:00

reported great earnings after hours. DGW I rec'd at under 22 and it will open tomorrow above 33 - nice move.I see a similar result when RCON reports results this month. The full year earnings on that stock could be $1.10-$1.20+ and the stock trades at $6 right now. With RCON's float of less than 2 million it could easily double within a few days after it gets recognized and becomes a momo

S&P 1000 - dollar wacked

2009-08-03T10:03:00.003-04:00

Well, as I expected the rally in the S&P is looking to squeeze up to 1000 or higher here. A part of this is being driven by the dollar dropping. The commodities are working today as well. Sorry for the limited posting lately, but I have been out of town quite a bit.Where will the rally stop - seems like there may be some more squeeze power left from where I sit, but a lot of shorts will line

New very speculative pick - RCON (Recon Technology)

2009-07-31T10:11:00.004-04:00

This is super speculative pick (but that seems to be what some readers are looking for), so be careful. The pick is RCON and is a very small IPO by an underwriter I do not know of, of a Chinese company (see the risk?). Still, it has the potential to really move as its got a microfloat of 1.7 million shares is profitable (made .87 a share in the first nine months of 2009 on big year over year

Good Morning Traders - What's up?

2009-07-24T09:20:00.004-04:00

DGW is... this is actually the only individual stock I have ever touted on this site. Hope you got some as my $30 target is in reach (premarket trading at $29).I will try to add more individual stock selection to this site.Market down slightly although it doesn't feel like a crash is imminent (although a 1-2% down day would not surprise me) and I see resolution to the upside before long. There

You "gots" to respect the market momemtum

2009-07-23T14:40:00.006-04:00

You will lose yo' a$$ fighting moves like this as a short. Better to step aside and let it go. Even if you are skeptical of the rally (as I am) I have for the most part not gotten drilled too bad by the 10% runup in the last week despite my bearish bias. I imagine there will be a miss by a major company soon that will cause a sell off, but with the momentum like this - too hard for me to

Dollar hovering at 7 month low

2009-07-23T10:40:00.003-04:00

for those paying attention. i have mentioned before that dollar devaluation is a reason the market could move higher than "true" fundamentals indicate. maybe that's happening here as the longs will surely look to tag S&P 1000 (in the coming days/weeks) now that we are in range... why do those round numbers end up being points that seem to always end up getting hit... it's like $100 on a stock -

Earnings for the most part are coming in better than expected again today

2009-07-23T08:32:00.011-04:00

Still, not sure how much more the bulls can push it with out some sort of pullback. I just can't see how investors seems to think everything is fine and we are going back to the good ole' days this quickly. Nevertheless, the market isn't always rationale as we all know. Therefore my stops on my SDS is right under $50 and QID right under $28. Better be wrong and out with very small losses in

Buying a little QID/SDS at the end of the day

2009-07-22T15:51:00.006-04:00

looking for a pullback near term in the markets... these are trades and will be closed in a day or two regardless...the SDS (2x short S&P 500)the QID (2x short the Naz 100) - Naz 100 has been up 11 days in a row!stops will go below today's lows in these etfs (said another way above the highs in the markets today) - so the stops are tight here. either i'm right or i am out quick.

I still own my precious metals positions ans short long term UST bonds position

2009-07-22T09:37:00.004-04:00

Got a few emails if I still like these positions. I absolutely do although it could be a real bumpy ride I think these are great ways to both protect yourself and potentially be positioned for huge upside. Also, are there a lot of fat people that come to my site - the lose weight ads are like the only thing that gets run here? WTF.

Can't stop the long MOJO - let's see if AAPL

2009-07-21T16:12:00.002-04:00

can keep the long vibe going... since AAPL always seems to beat and then guide way low, I am sure the longs will find a way to be happy at least into the open tomorrow.I will be a buyer of TBT (2x short long term treasuries) if it get back down to $50

Although I am not bullish - around 120 stocks hit 52 week highs yesterday

2009-07-21T09:26:00.004-04:00

that is a little different than just oversold stocks bouncing... could bring new money in. imagine shorts will go after the open today - do the longs squeeze them out up to 1000 (S&P) or will the shorts win today.think today is a level the shorts MAY be able to but a temporary dent in the momo, but longs have been strong and short has been wrong...

Jon Stewart rips the $hit out of Goldman Sachs

2009-07-20T20:37:00.001-04:00

The Daily Show With Jon StewartMon - Thurs 11p / 10cPyramid Economywww.thedailyshow.comDaily Show Full EpisodesPolitical HumorJoke of the Day

Feels like the market may get to 1000 before long

2009-07-20T15:04:00.002-04:00

that would be a logical shorting spot it would seem. late shorts haven taken a wild ride the last week as the market has ripped 8% higher after taking several weeks to fall that much...

DGW ripping - on its way to $30

2009-07-20T10:08:00.000-04:00

as I expected (searh DGW on this site for my other commentary)... just wish I had a bunch of it. Perfect example of being right but not making much money on the idea!

Analysis: Geithner's tough task: marketing US debt

2009-07-20T08:10:00.000-04:00

From Businessweekhttp://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D99HPNSO0.htm

DGW - one i mentioned before

2009-07-17T09:04:00.001-04:00

really started to run yesterday - I hope you had some I sold most of mine pretty much at the low of the pullback for a small profit - damn. I bet we see $30 in this one before it's all said and done.

Sheila Bair believes up to 500 more banks could fail

2009-07-16T10:53:00.001-04:00

DJ reports FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair believes up to 500 more banks could fail, a U.S. senator said Bair told him in a recent meeting. "She told us that unless something dramatic happens, we could lose up to 500 more banks," Sen. Jim Bunning, R-Ky., said Thursday at a hearing of the Senate Banking Committee on the foreclosure crisis. Bunning said Bair made the remarks in a recent meeting. "That

5 reasons to fear inflation

2009-07-15T16:46:00.002-04:00

check link http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2009/07/five-reasons-to-fear-inflation.html

Market rips back after looking like we were headed to 820

2009-07-15T16:08:00.001-04:00

I really don't have a feel for where we are going but go think we could see the dollar start to break down here as the place to add to bond shorts was last week. As I mentioned then - I don't know how you would lose money over the next 10 years short US Treasury Bonds at these prices.

Robin Hood Style

2009-07-15T09:32:00.002-04:00

Rob from the rich to give to the poor - this is the new Obama America. read more for articleHouse Plans to Tax Millionaires to Fund U.S. Health-Care Plan By Ryan J. Donmoyer and Kristin JensenJuly 15 (Bloomberg) -- House Democrats plan to fund the broadest U.S. health-care expansion in four decades by increasing taxes on the wealthiest Americans, imposing a surtax of 5.4 percent on couples with

More GS BS (F-Goldman Sachs)

2009-07-14T21:30:00.003-04:00

YOU SHOULD BE ENRAGED!Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

Goldman Sachs - this is the straight truth

2009-07-14T21:26:00.004-04:00

just buy Goldman because they are the market and it just makes me mad, apparently not just me - watch Gaspi get the hook at the end of this. read more for linkhttp://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/gasparino-tells-cnbc-to-stop-protecting.html

Meltdown 101: How did $1 trillion deficit happen?

2009-07-14T09:59:00.000-04:00

click read more if you would like to read the AP articleWASHINGTON (AP) — In a year of eye-popping numbers, add one more: The government's annual budget deficit has topped $1 trillion.And with three months left in the budget year, it will actually get even worse. The administration is projecting that the deficit will hit $1.84 trillion for the current budget year, four times the size of last

Will GS run the shorts early today only to drop later

2009-07-14T09:45:00.001-04:00

in the day...

Goldman Sachs executives sold $700 mln of stock - FT

2009-07-14T08:23:00.001-04:00

FT reports executives at GS sold almost $700 mln worth of stock following the collapse of Lehman Brothers last September, according to filings with the SEC. Most of the sales occurred during the period in which the investment bank enjoyed the support of $10 bln from the troubled asset relief program. The surge in selling among Goldman partners, at a time when the US government had thrown a

Not much hype for this dude - but not sure why - James Morrison

2009-07-11T11:28:00.003-04:00

I think this is really good stuff. Listen and let me know if you agree. For those new to the blog we mix trading talk with a little bit of my music picks here.Read mo' for the video...

What's up for you this weekend?

2009-07-11T11:22:00.002-04:00

Apparently I am going to a "block party". I guess those still happen. I hope you all are having a good weekend. Enjoy yourself - remember the best trade you will ever make is "going long" enjoying life and family and friends.

China attacks dollar's dominance - Financial Times

2009-07-10T08:21:00.002-04:00

Financial Times reports China has launched its highest-profile criticism of the dominant role of the US dollar as a global reserve currency at a meeting of the world's biggest economies. Dai Bingguo, Chinese state counselor, raised the issue on Thursday when he joined the leaders of four other emerging economies for talks with the leaders of the Group of Eight industrialized nations -- including

Wish I had more to comment on in regards to the market

2009-07-09T23:11:00.007-04:00

but not really "feeling" the market right now...so I step aside and watch. I will add some random thoughts on trading this weekend. I think embracing the emotional side of trading actually makes you a better trader. So I'll have some thoughts on that as well as my long awaited "trading on tilt" article! ok, maybe not long awaited but that sells right?Anybody wanna talk about anything in

New Video for y'all - Ben Harper

2009-07-09T23:03:00.001-04:00

Click read more to see video

Looking for a better day from the stock market today

2009-07-09T08:51:00.002-04:00

One thing I do want to note is that over the next 15 years I think if you short US bonds there is almost no scenario I can see how you won't make money. I will go into detail this weekend on why I feel this.stopped out of DGW for a $1 gain but had $4 at one point. still think this stock sees $30 sometime but...

It is almost as if the Trading Gods are mad at me

2009-07-08T15:50:00.003-04:00

All commodities down (except DBA)Treasury Bonds up hugeAnd now the market is up!That is contra almost every position I have except the few commodity puts I own.

Precious Metals have now become a hedge

2009-07-08T15:04:00.002-04:00

against making money if you are long these things - unreal, but I guess it is real - cause it's happening.

Getting rocked today by the markets

2009-07-08T12:33:00.003-04:00

Not a good day to be long commodities as groundhog day continues for with my shorts working but longs in commodities killing me. I have scaled out of some of these plays - unfortunately.

Looks like more punishment for the commodities today

2009-07-08T08:23:00.006-04:00

and strangely its the precious metals leading the way down.also, bonds and the stock market are slightly bid.I may be taking some of my commods off today as I am reaching a point of heavy frustration and thinking about these positions too much. I find when you start thinking a lot about your positions when the market is closed (in a frustrated way) you probably have too much size or need to exit

When you're pissed off trading what do you say most often?

2009-07-07T23:12:00.007-04:00

I think or say the the term, "that's f-ing bullsh*t!" the most, even if it is not true - I still say it.I hear people say how you need to remain calm and do this and do that. I agree to some extent, but sometimes you have to yell (even if only in your mind) at the computer too. That's not really a trading tip. But, maybe setting a stop or closing your position, yelling at the computer and then

Long-Term Trends Point to Gold Above $1,000

2009-07-07T21:10:00.001-04:00

CNBC link HERE

New Day - Same Result

2009-07-07T16:03:00.003-04:00

Commodities Rocked (I am long commodities with a little put protection)Market goes down (I am short the market)Treasuries get bought (I am short treasuries)I outperform the marketBut lose money on an absolute basis due to my commodities exposure.About to sell 1/2 of everything I own to get a fresh start as I feel myself getting frustrated and that's when I am bound to make mistakes (even though I

Dollar ends up lower, but so do commodities

2009-07-06T16:45:00.003-04:00

I am disappointed by the performance of the precious metals in this environment. Seems like the should be performing better, but maybe I have better too one-sided in my view of the asset class. What am I missing?I am probably on my longest stagnant performance streak in 4-5 years. It is a tough market but I feel like I should be doing better.

Bad News = UNG gapping to 52 week lows

2009-07-06T08:11:00.008-04:00

Good news is I will be stopped out (I will give it 10 cents below its open and then sell out) and stop having to worry about this POS... well, I guess that's really not good news. But I have had about enough fun with UNG for the time being. UNG is a trade I got up about 15% on and will end up taking a loss of about 10% (and this happened all in a few weeks).Also, all commodities getting rocked

GOP Rep. Kirk Warns: China's Investing Away From Dollar... Buying Gold & Oil (Video)

2009-07-05T08:42:00.003-04:00

Representative Mark Kirk (R-IL) said this recently after his trip to China... uh...oh: "China has lent about $300 billion to the US for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They're very worried about that; another $700 billion in treasury bills. And. they're particularly worried about the feds new policy of buying treasury debt. Cause they're worried that one part of the federal government is buying

Happy 4th of July to All

2009-07-04T12:18:00.000-04:00

Back with some market stuff tomorrow. Enjoy the day.

I am going long

2009-07-03T10:56:00.002-04:00

my family, barbeques, my wife, my friends for the Fourth.I hope you are too.

New Music for You to Vibe on while your trading!

2009-07-02T20:35:00.005-04:00

I like all this guy's sh..........iit. After this week I need a song like this, Ok. it's alright with me - Eric Hutchinson.Click it or ticket

Not a Great Day For Yours Truly as Commodities Get Ripped

2009-07-02T15:57:00.006-04:00

My market shorts helped soften the blow (and DGW long helped a bit) but still got hit as all of the commodity plays got rocked. I way outperformed the market loss today but still lost. And I am not about outperformance, I am about absolute performance. Feels like I am grinding out nothing repeatedly. Tough market to play if you aren't trading by the minute for scalps. Just when you think you

Natural Gas (UNG) "The Widow Maker" Continues its Assault on Longs

2009-07-02T14:09:00.005-04:00

UNG is continuing dropping the hammer on longs as this "piece" can't gain any traction. Maybe soon people will be giving away natty gas for free. My stop is set under 52 week lows which is rapidly approaching. I hate you UNG.

Thoughts for today on the Stock Market

2009-07-02T12:57:00.010-04:00

Weakness pretty much everywhere so far with very limited bouncing back so far. All the precious metals stuff getting tagged more than I'd like to see today. The GLD and SLV have traded in really tight ranges so far today so look for a break of that daily range either way for a possible entry today (I will be). It seems these metals are now riding up and down correlated with equities. So much

Ugly Start Today for the Market

2009-07-02T09:43:00.008-04:00

For just about everything other than my short market positions. My gut tells me buying the gap down around 9 hundo in the S&P may be the way to play today. I will be posting some thoughts around noon EST today.

Miller Taback's Peter Boockvar on Gold

2009-07-01T20:21:00.001-04:00

Here's a great video if you are a gold bull (click read more for the video). This guy has a pretty good following.

Lackluster Leaders Top the S&P 500 Q2 Performance Chart

2009-07-01T17:54:00.006-04:00

From Agora Financial: The S&P 500 finished the second quarter of 2009 with a 15.2% gain, its best quarter since 1998. Since March lows, the index is up nearly 35%. For all of 2009, the S&P is just above break-even.So the obvious question: Where do we go from here? Was the second quarter a fluke -- a simple snapback of oversold stocks? Or a new bull market? For an answer, we sought out the “stars”

End of June - History Says Buy Gold

2009-07-01T12:53:00.004-04:00

If history is your guide, you might want to buy some gold today - Right Now.“In our current eight-year bull market,” writes Jeff Clark for Casey Research. “June has seen the lowest return for gold. In other words, it’s been, on average, one of the best times to buy.

China requests reserve currency debate at G8, according to sources - Reuters, buy gold?

2009-07-01T12:04:00.010-04:00

This should be dollar negative and gold/commodity positive. Eventually there will be a day when this non-dollar reserve currency "kicks in" for people and they realize this IS going to happen and you will have a huge drop in the dollar. Click Read More if you are interested in reading the article.Reuters reports China has asked to debate proposals for a new global reserve currency at next

An observation on holiday shortened weeks

2009-07-01T09:19:00.003-04:00

I have often seen garbage stocks, high short interest stocks and low float momentum stocks really get run up in holiday shortened weeks (towards the end of the week). Maybe it's because that is where traders see the action...maybe it is because they can move these stocks as many market participants are away. Nevertheless, it is just an observation from watching the market for numerous years.

Dennis Kneale on CNBC ripping Bloggers who don't like him

2009-06-30T23:22:00.009-04:00

This is just some BS by Dennis Kneale (see video by clicking read more and paging down - pull forward a minute or two for where he gets started on bloggers). Also read Zero Hedge's response to D Kneale's misrepresenation HERE

Starting a new tradition on The Honest Trader

2009-06-30T21:55:00.007-04:00

One or two times a week I am going to link in some the music I listen to while I am trading (or really doing anything) because we have to have some fun - trading is stressful sometimes! So, let's start it off with Ray LaMontagne - You Are The Best Thing. Listen to the lyrics and when you are having a tough trading day whether the best thing is your wife, g-friend, b-friend, buddy, or just a beer

Dennis Gartman's Trading Rules

2009-06-30T21:28:00.001-04:00

Dennis Gartman is a investor you have probably seen on CNBC and other media. Here are his Trading rules. Worth a read...1. Never, under any circumstance add to a losing position…. ever! Nothing more need be said; to do otherwise will eventually and absolutely lead to ruin!2. Trade like a mercenary guerrilla. We must fight on the winning side and be willing to change sides readily when one side

Video on DGW (Duoyuan Global Water Inc.)

2009-06-30T17:18:00.007-04:00

Here's a video from thestreet.com that has a guy on who says DGW could go to $30. That is my initial target here then maybe $32 which would make a round 100% gain from the IPO price.DGW broke through recent IPO highs today and then had a cliff dive into the close in some weird action in the final minutes. Nevertheless, there is often a lot of money that can be made buying the opening range (low

Open Post to My Readers - Please Comment

2009-06-30T13:43:00.005-04:00

1. What do you like / dislike about this blog?2. What would you like to hear more / less about?3. What will help get this blog a wider viewing audience (although yesterday was the highest day as far as visits / views go so I know some people are catching on)?I want to publish content that you folks actually want to read. Help me make this blog better - Please leave your comments. They are

Not going to trading heavy (or with big size) again today as the quarter comes to an end

2009-06-30T09:44:00.019-04:00

Although I may take a shot at shorting the S&P at 930 (which marks its May peak, the 62% retracement of the June range and also near R1 Daily and Weekly Resistance for the technicians), looking for possible profit-taking as the market has been up 5 days in a row into the the quarter end. Another possible short would be the financials which have underperformed so far this morning. If I take the

Natural Gas (UNG) aka "The Widow Maker" Dropping Below the Trendline Pre-Market

2009-06-30T09:01:00.004-04:00

This ETF is super volatile and has had some huge volume over the last month. I entered a long at right under $14 a few weeks back. Stop then was set below 52 week lows. Stop is still there although this is certainly a frustrating ETF to own because it shot up almost $2 soon after I bought it but I did not take much of my position off as I looked at this play as more of a longer term investment

My Penalty Box Trading Rule - Trading Tip for the Day

2009-06-29T17:04:00.010-04:00

This is a rule I use to keep myself from letting my conviction get in the way of my discipline. Here's how I play it:Let's say I have conviction in a Trade. Remember I am talking about a trade (I define a trade as something with a time frame from one day to 4 weeks) not a longer term investment. I will discuss some of my rules I use for longer term investing in another post some time.So again

What is Stock Market Window Dressing at Quarter End?

2009-06-29T12:54:00.005-04:00

I have received this question from a few via email (as I have been mentioning this issue the last few days). I think this article does a good job of explaining what it is - CLICK HERESimple definition though from Investopedia:Window DressingPerformance reports and a list of the holdings in a mutual fund are usually sent to clients every quarter. To window dress, the fund manager will sell stocks

Not a lot I am seeing out there again today

2009-06-29T10:04:00.009-04:00

Not going to be overactive in this market right now as I don't really feel I have an edge and it seems pretty choppy. The kind of market you could easily churn your account in. I guess end of quarter window dressing may give the market an upside bias but I am not making any trades to support that thought process. And strangely the bond market and the stock market again are both finding buyers

Hyperinflation Nation The Documentary - A Must See

2009-06-28T23:21:00.004-04:00

I recommend you watch this whole thing. So here it is Hyperinflation Nation the Documentary.

Rationale for the TBT (2x Ultrashort Long Term Treasuries) Swing Long

2009-06-28T03:52:00.006-04:00

I mentioned Friday I took a swing long in TBT. The rationale for this is for several reasons. If you read the blog you know I think yields are going to rise (taking bond prices down) on Treasuries due to ongoing supply of Treasuries as we keep issuing debt to fund "everything", inflation concerns, dollar concerns, etc. However, that is all longer term stuff and I already have a longer term

Is Gold (GLD) a Buy Here? Technical Analysis

2009-06-27T10:08:00.004-04:00

This dude is pretty popular on the net and indicates right now on the charts an entry in the GLD is about as good as it gets.

Federal Bailout Application - Some Saturday Humor

2009-06-27T09:53:00.001-04:00

This is pretty funny.

Greenspan sees Inflation Risk

2009-06-26T13:45:00.003-04:00

Greenspan sees inflation risk - CLICK HERE"The U.S. is faced with the choice of either paring back its budget deficits and monetary base as soon as the current risks of deflation dissipate, or setting the stage for a potential upsurge in inflation."Actually some intelligent stuff in here.

Trading Advice for the Rest of the Day

2009-06-26T13:31:00.001-04:00

Go to Happy Hour. There is not much to hunt out there today and I see really no edge. So I recommend you do not try to force it.

DGW Update - Gap Up Reversal / Market Commentary

2009-06-26T10:53:00.007-04:00

Well we got a quick gap up that came right back in and DGW is now trading at the low of the day along the same lines as the overall market. Not loving the pullback, but not completely surprised. Standing pat with my stop at 21.65 until further notice. Could see a run into the close if those in charge really want to get this momo started. Update: It did run into the close and then sold off $1 in

Wary of dollar, China wants super-sovereign currency - Reuters.com

2009-06-26T09:45:00.003-04:00

Reuters.com reports that China's central bank renewed its call on Friday for the creation of a super-sovereign reserve currency to reduce the dollar's global domination, which it said had worsened the financial crisis. In its annual financial stability report, the central bank did not mention the dollar by name but said it was a serious defect that one currency should tower over all others. "An

Quick Opening Trade - TBT

2009-06-26T09:39:00.006-04:00

Re-enetered the TBT long at 50.94 this morning. Think treasuries are overbought - will be willing to swing this if it can close 40 cents or more green today. Tight stop slightly under the opening morning low 50.65. Update - giving the stop a little more room to 50.49 as I just think the UST rally will stall. If I am wrong I will go into the penalty box on TBT (I'll explain later). Update: Kept

Night Cap Trading Tip

2009-06-25T22:32:00.002-04:00

Having a night cap (Peroni Beer) in beautiful metro Detroit and wanted to drop some common sense in trading knowledge on you - but something to remember.You do not need to be right the majority of the time when trading. You just need to be make more money on the (few) trades when you are right than the (many) trades that you will be wrong. As a a trader accept being wrong - but limit your

An interesting read on how the US Treasury is changing the rules of the auctions results

2009-06-25T19:45:00.002-04:00

Another example where if you don't like the results - change the rules.So is the indirect participation in the UST auctions as good as it looks?Link HERE

DGW (Duoyuan Global Water Inc.) - my call from this morning ripping into the close

2009-06-25T15:42:00.017-04:00

Can you say gap up tomorrow - I can at least say it!Good for over a 15% gain from the lows this morning (i didn't buy at the exact lows though). This one has momo written all over it. This is why if you want to follow my calls you must check the site regularly throughout the day. I mean why not - the site is free?Let me know if you like or dislike the small cap discussion on this more macro

UNG up about 50 cents from my buy call yesterday

2009-06-25T15:27:00.004-04:00

I should have added down there as it was the optimal place with a good risk reward. Again - let it go, let it go...Still long a good size UNG position though so I can't get too upset. Still, if you are a trader you know the feeling of being right and not taking advantage of it which is what I have been doing the last few days. The plays I take are scratching and the plays I like but don't take

Quarter End Markup Time and Position Updates, Trading Calls (SDS, DGW, TBT)

2009-06-25T12:00:00.035-04:00

No need to worry about anything other than getting those prices higher for the quarterly statements... then we can let her fall again.Don't mention the OIH as it is up another $3 today (I would have been a seller between 99/100 though if I had bought). I previously noted my misplay on this ETF as I was planning to own it into the quarter end just for this reason.Going to take a daytrade small

Goldman Sachs - The Fourth Branch of the US Government?

2009-06-25T11:23:00.004-04:00

This is from Gains and Pains Capital and is an interesting read - note the link to another article at the bottom.Ladies and Gentleman, I present to you America’s Financial Branch of the Government: Goldman Sachs. Trying to detail exactly how integrated Goldman has become to the Federal Government would be like trying to track the peanut butter swirls in Ben and Jerry’s Chocolate Peanut Butter

China Should Buy Gold

2009-06-25T08:19:00.000-04:00

Guardian Unlimited reports China should buy more gold because the dollar is poised for a fall and the metal is needed to support the greater international role envisaged for the yuan, a senior researcher with the ruling Communist Party said on Thursday. Li Lianzhong, who heads the economic department of the Party's policy research office, said China should use more of its $1.95 trillion in

Here is a link to the GLD Information Page

2009-06-25T00:05:00.004-04:00

You can keep track of how much gold is in the GLD on a daily basis (it's about halfway down the page). You may want to bookmark this if you follow the GLD. Link is HERE

Gold Doesn't Care Whether it's Inflation or Deflation

2009-06-24T20:42:00.003-04:00

Another great article from Omnisans Investment ResearchGold doesn’t care if it’s inflation or deflation. One of the central arguments for financial commentators right now is whether the US is currently facing inflation or deflation. Everyone (at least everyone with a functioning cortex) is aware that the US (and the rest of the world for that matter) will face more difficult times ahead. However,

Some technical analysis on UNG

2009-06-24T20:28:00.003-04:00

UNG tests the apex of a daily triangle. This is from Afraid to Trade - Click Here

Bernanke on the HOT seat!

2009-06-24T14:56:00.002-04:00

I imagine this will garner a lot of attention - let the circus begin.Reuters.com reports the top Republican on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee said on Wednesday that the Federal Reserve sought to hide its extensive involvement in Bank of America Corp's (BAC) acquisition of Merrill Lynch as Merrill's financial condition worsened. "The committee has already learned that Ben

TBT Trade from Yesterday up almost $1 here

2009-06-24T11:03:00.005-04:00

that's good. But still stinging a little bit from "bitching out" on the OIH trade which would have helped soften the blow from my longer term market short positions. Should of, would of, could of...update: took 1/3 off of my TBT for 75 cents, stop on rest under 51.49

UNG at $14 may be worth an entry if you are not long

2009-06-24T09:35:00.002-04:00

But since I already am and this thing is crazy volatile I am going to stand pat.

Looks like the precious metals have their giddyup on this morning!

2009-06-24T08:45:00.006-04:00

That's good news as I was starting to get a little nervous in the action in GLD/SLV nearer-term. I mentioned a few posts back how you can get chopped up and frustrated trying to time entries in and out of the metals (especially if your intention is to trade a position that is really core to your beliefs). Meaning, if you really believe in a position my recommendation is buy a core position and

Mentioned buying OIH today on yesterday's posts

2009-06-24T08:38:00.008-04:00

Well, it ran away from me this morning and I should have entered yesterday before the close. Bad timing by me - especially since I felt the market may pop this morning and maybe into month-end / quarter-end as we often do.Oh well... missed opportunity because I would have probably taking 1/2 off at $1 profit and swung the rest with a stop at entry - but that's all theoretical now.Morning update:

Goldman Ordered by Government to Suppress Gold?

2009-06-23T23:05:00.006-04:00

This would not surprise me - click link here"He told my source on Friday [June 12] that the U.S. government told Goldman Sachs on Thursday afternoon to take the price of gold down. Note the Thursday evening MIDAS (Murphy's) comments after gold closed at $960.70 during the Comex trading hours ..."

Goldman Cartoon

2009-06-23T21:47:00.001-04:00

Looks like the precious metals plays are going to get flushed today - or are they?

2009-06-23T10:43:00.010-04:00

When trading these metals all I can say is watch your size because they are volatile enough that you can get chopped up pretty good and end up missing moves if you try to jump in an out. However, these broke their 50 DMA yesterday so you also have the technicians getting into the selling today. Therefore you will have people saying GLD is going to 85-86 or the 200 DMA. I would not wait to buy

Is gold a commodity or is it money?

2009-06-23T10:29:00.010-04:00

Depends who you ask?A link to Bill Cara's thoughts HEREAlthough it does seem gold is breaking down and the hedging of the commodities I mentioned yesterday (I bought some GLD puts) may have been wise for the short term. As despite the dollar being lower we still see lower prices in most all commodities so far today. This action will help the Fed state that inflation is under control this week I

The Real Crisis Is Food

2009-06-22T20:51:00.003-04:00

From Graham Summers at Omnisans ResearchClick the following link: The Real Crisis is About to Unfold… and It’s Not Financial

Trading Tip of the Day

2009-06-22T14:34:00.005-04:00

Not Trading is a viable Trading StrategyYou don't have to trade all the time to be a trader. Take it from someone who has overtraded in the past. Being flat is OK , not trading is OK - there is no minimum number of trades you have to make to be a trader and to use a poker analogy - "You can't lose what you don't put in the middle (of the pot)"Save your trades for when you feel you have a "real"

Looks like the government inspired suckers rally may be ending

2009-06-22T13:26:00.009-04:00

Too bad for those of people who believed the "all's well" call from the government agencies on the economy and specifically on the banks. You were sold into by the pros I do believe.Can the SEC investigate Geinther, Bernanke, and Obama for knowingly bantering false information? of course not.Unfortunately for me - the gains I am taking in my short market positions are being overtaken by my

Post Options-Ex Mondays

2009-06-22T10:42:00.006-04:00

I always find it interesting how stuff just tends to move big in one direction after options ex days. There really is no news today (World Bank Report?) that I can see for the sell off other than options have expired there must be no need to hold the market up.

Commodities continuing to pullback

2009-06-22T09:18:00.005-04:00

Although longer term I am a big believer in many commodities moving up in a large fashion, depending on the action today I may hedge some of this exposure nearer term.It seems the market moves everyday opposite of the dollar and with the commodities (even gold). Let's see how the action plays out as maybe we are just having an early morning shake especially in the precious metals and will finish

The Onion - Cash for Gold US Parody

2009-06-21T22:32:00.001-04:00

US To Trade Gold Reserves For Cash Through Cash4Gold.com

General Rant of the Day

2009-06-21T11:56:00.004-04:00

How in the world can hotels in this day and age have garbage wi-fi internet connections? Besides making my blood boil to temps hotter than a Playboy centerfold, my hands start shaking like a crack head in rehab from withdraw when I get that damn message about "unsuccessful connection" and "diagnose the problem". At this point I lose all sanity and continually reboot the computer and hit connect

Some Gold/Inflation stuff I have been reading while away

2009-06-20T21:52:00.005-04:00

John Embry Expects $1500 Gold by Year-End and Early Stage Hyperinflation by Year EndBuy Gold to Keep Up with InflationVery Dangerous Time for the Dollar IndexJohn Burbank's Passport Capital adds Massive Gold StakeHyperinflation could hit the US in 5-10 YearsGreen Shoots for Inflation

Back in the Saddle

2009-06-20T21:43:00.001-04:00

Home sweet home... time for some new thoughts.Check back tomorrow as I catch you up on what's going on in my mind these days.

Some links to make you think

2009-06-18T16:46:00.003-04:00

Signs Gold and Silver May be at a BottomETF's for 20% InflationGold as a HedgeNatural Gas Etf Drawbacks

Sorry about no recent posts

2009-06-18T16:43:00.001-04:00

I am holed up where I have limited internet access so having some issues. I will back with my normal comments next week.

Let me ask you a question

2009-06-16T00:14:00.004-04:00

If you were a big holder of a stock - would you announce that you were about to sell a bunch of your stock? of course not.What if you were a country that is a huge holder of the dollar? Apparently, it is bullish and a surprise to the media when countries don't come out and denounce the dollar (like Russia today - basically supporting the buck today). I imagine they will do that when they

Let her rip - UNG articles

2009-06-15T23:58:00.002-04:00

some more UNG readshttp://seekingalpha.com/article/143167-natural-gas-the-next-big-thing?source=hp_mostpopularhttp://seekingalpha.com/article/143036-are-oil-etfs-showing-us-how-natural-gas-etfs-will-trade

Pretty much all of my commentary was right on from last week, but...

2009-06-15T22:15:00.003-04:00

My comments were to short the markets, buy UNG, sell some USO calls and mentioned I thought the precious metals could come back to their 50 DMA's (I bought UNG and sold USO calls and shorted the market). However, despite all these correct calls I still did not make money today. Why? Mostly because I did not hedge or sell any of my GLD, SLV, GDX despite thinking they may come in. Also, because my

UNG ripping, other commodities / stocks dipping

2009-06-15T12:52:00.013-04:00

More on this and how things are playing out today exactly as I mentioned on this blog last week later this evening. I will also talk about how I got this stuff right and still didn't capitalize on it like I should have.Also taking a shot at a swing long in SLV (still have my core piece on) here at 13.93 (which corresponds to the 50 day EMA) - stop on this trading piece under 13.5. Not huge size

7 Reasons Traders Don't Make Money in Range Bound Markets

2009-06-14T11:37:00.004-04:00

Below is from Doug Hirschhorn and the full article is here from CNBC. Although I am not a huge fan on CNBC this is worth a read."The S&P has been stuck in a 300-point range, from 700 to 1,000, since last October. There are seven reasons traders fail to make money in range-bound markets.1.) They forget to look at bigger picture and adjust style as markets adjust. Some traders think using the

Anatomy of a Great Gold Bull Market

2009-06-13T23:15:00.004-04:00

Click on the picture for the full article from Acamar Online. I would definitely agree we have not gotten to speculative mania. I repeat most people own no gold or precious metals at all... but everyone owns dollars and stocks and bonds?

S&P PE at 130?

2009-06-13T19:53:00.005-04:00

"Per this data set from Barron's we're sitting at a nice trailing 130 PE ratio..."More from FMMF - click here

More thoughts on UNG

2009-06-13T11:24:00.009-04:00

From Bespoke Investment Group ( I would note oil to nat gas ratio is around 20 right now while history says it is usually around 10) - you do the math:While you wouldn't expect it from the price of natural gas, trading in the natural gas ETF (UNG) has recently become extremely active. For much of the last few years, investors who wanted exposure to energy related commodities bought USO. Over the

Gold, Silver, Gold mining stocks

2009-06-13T11:20:00.003-04:00

Although I am long these sectors can't say I loved the action on Friday. Maybe they all go back down to their 50 DMA... I thought the 20 DMA would hold, but it did not.Maybe we snap right back on Monday and recapture those levels, but it looks like gold's assault on $1,000 is again thwarted for the time being.

Reverso World

2009-06-11T16:38:00.002-04:00

We popped then dropped versus dropped then popped into the close - the opposite of what normally happens. Is that a tide turner for the next week or so? Not sure, but my angle is bearish on that closing action.

Better than expected 30 yr auction?

2009-06-11T16:20:00.003-04:00

Who in god's name is buying this stuff? Buying the UST 30 yr's at like 4.7%. Good luck with that paper over the next 30, partner.

Nat Gas (UNG) inventories show smaller build than expected

2009-06-11T12:05:00.003-04:00

Nat gas showed a build of 106 bcf vs the consensus build of 110 bcf.I am long UNG. Based on a the cost of oil vs nat gas - nat gas should be a no-brainer to catch up in a big way.

One that got away from me - DBB (Base Metals)

2009-06-11T09:35:00.004-04:00

DBB - This is the base metals ETF. I got too cute a month or so ago and wanted to get a better entry. Kept waiting and now it's run 20% away from me. Whenever I see that thing green on my screen it screams "Why did you try to get too greedy on an entry for a longer term holding - you should have just bought me, idiot?"... and I think "You're right, DBB... you're right."

Volume Surge in UNG Natural Gas Fund

2009-06-10T22:28:00.002-04:00

Good stuff from Afraid to Trade on UNG. Click hereI commented on this same thing a few days back here

Broken Record Comment

2009-06-10T15:45:00.005-04:00

3:30 rally monkey "business" starting.I think this action is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. Traders say it's happening, it's a trend - so jump on boys.

Treasuries getting rocked on a not so good auction

2009-06-10T14:26:00.002-04:00

You know I am not surprised.The $19B reopened 10-yrs went off at 3.990%, with a 2.62 cover and an OK 34.2% indirect bidder take. The break down, with the demand for more yield playing against the decent $2.62 offered for each buck. The bonds have broken further with the 10-yr tagging 3.986% as the 30-yr, which will have its auction issue tomorrow, is back at the worst levels since Oct 2007 -

Another Distribution Day?

2009-06-09T16:30:00.006-04:00

Is that the Pros selling to the Joes, right now? We will know soon.Lot's of talk about a pop to new highs (maybe to S&P 1000 - just for the hell of it) before we come back in, makes me wonder if it actually happens.

Rollin' on Dubs

2009-06-08T21:06:00.006-04:00

Interesting as several of the precious metals plays I own all tested their 20 day moving averages. Is that the pullback before we move higher?

US Treasuries = Sub-Prime Debt / Gold at $2,000

2009-06-08T20:12:00.002-04:00

The gold bugs will like this stuff:The Acamar Journal Article - Click Here.

Another late day buy program squeezes the shorts

2009-06-08T16:36:00.005-04:00

This happens everyday it seems. I have commented on this phenomenon before - click here.Maybe they should just open the market from 3-4pm.

These are just good articles, yo!

2009-06-07T19:37:00.006-04:00

This guy just writes good sh*t. Both of them discuss how the shoots aren't so green.Here are a few more of his articles:We're Due for a Serious PullbackThe Coming Economic CollapseI will keep linking his stuff up. Happy Sunday y'all from a small sports bar with internet access in metro Detroit. And ohh yes... I am having a drink - Oberon, a Michigan beer for those from wherever try this stuff.

A quick recap of my week in trading and prices on my entries

2009-06-07T10:11:00.015-04:00

As you know if you have read the first post on my blog and follow my material I have the following positions. Here I have added my entries (green/red based on if I am positive or negative on the trade):Long GLD - average purchase price of $80.66Long GDX - average price $31.01 Long SLV - average price 11.27Long DBA - average price $25 Long USO Jan 2010, 35 calls - average price $4.25 Long UNG -

Jim Rogers / Kudlow rip Cantor Fitzgerald CEO

2009-06-06T08:37:00.003-04:00

Good segment here on US Treasuries - Rogers rips Howard LutnickI am on the bus with Jimmy on this one (meaning, I think treasuries are a terrible place to have your money). I am and have been short treasuries as mentioned before.

Stocks Will Fall 37% or Gold Will Rally 60%

2009-06-05T21:20:00.002-04:00

This article courtesy of Omnisans Investment Research's Graham Summers How’s this for a bubble? In 1965 one in ten Americans owned stocks. In 1990, one in five Americans owned stocks. Put another way, it took 25 years for stock ownership to double in the US. And most of that growth came between 1983 and 1990 with the introduction of 401(k)s, IRAs and other stock-based retirement plans: suddenly

Gap Up Reversal Today?

2009-06-05T09:31:00.004-04:00

If I play the market today I will be looking to enter shorts in the S&P on this gap up this morning.

Julian Robertson Bets the Farm on Inflation

2009-06-04T23:19:00.004-04:00

Smart dude, rich dude, hedge fund legend...betting on inflationcheck link Julian Robertson Bets the Farm on Inflation

UNG (Natural Gas) - Alert

2009-06-04T13:26:00.011-04:00

Huge volume reversal today in the UNG after inventories hit and natty got ripped lower. UNG has already traded the most volume in it's history today. Natty is a volatile one, but if it finishes green could be a the bottoming tail with volume that could lead to an actual change in trend (from down to up). However, UNG plays by its own rules.I added to my natty position this morning on the spike

FDIC delays program for banks to sell bad loans

2009-06-04T09:24:00.006-04:00

Bloomberg Article - Click this LinkI am not surprised by this as I never thought the program would work as banks would not price their assets at a point where investors would buy them (low bid / high ask - no trade!). Additionally, if banks sold into this Legacy Loan Program it would not have provided capital (contrary to what the media puppet heads would tell you) unless they sold their assets

3:30-4:00 Rally Time for the Market Magicians

2009-06-03T16:00:00.012-04:00

Yet again, per usual, the market magicians engineer another run into the close. This seemingly daily action is probably starting to build on itself as whomever is doing it, is doing it, so traders are jumping on board this "trend" at the end of the day which amplifies the action into the close - just what the market magicians want I suppose. Plus, today we ripped commodities lower, dollar higher

Bill Cara today on why not to just "Trade Something"

2009-06-03T08:46:00.003-04:00

Bill Cara is a expert who I respect deeply. If you don't follow his blog you should. Scroll down to CTAB trader’s conference call notes (link here) for today and read his reminder on "trading something". Here's an intro to the article... "Because trading is what we do for a living, the temptation is to “trade something”. However, trading for the sake of trading is not a justification to place

Nothing to See Here?

2009-06-02T17:39:00.004-04:00

Not a whole lot to report today as the market chopped around most of the day. It started to feel for a moment like the "market forces" were going to let the "bull"dogs out again at around 3:30-3:45 pm, but the rally attempt was contained. Of note today - weakness in the financials and strength in Silver, Gold (will we bang 1k this week?) and the Gold Miners. Is S&P 950 going to be the end of

GM finally dies - Does the United States have similar symptoms?

2009-06-01T21:40:00.005-04:00

Monday night having a night cap in beautiful Metro Detroit. I am not predicting the end of the United States, but there are certain parallels I see in the current direction of the US and GM (now Government Motors) in its years prior to implosion...First, I live in metro Detroit (and strangely for people who haven't been to the suburbs of D-town it's a great place with great people), so it is hard

Quick Breakfast and Now Lunch Bites

2009-06-01T09:07:00.015-04:00

Here are some quick breakfast bites (links) I am reading this morning/afternoon that you may have missed:Black Swan Fund Makes Inflation BetTroubled Bank Loans Hit a Record High Insurers buying gold - new link since this morningObama's hedge funds latest investmentGM into bankruptcy - Market up over 1% pre-market (after the mysterious late Friday burst) as the bulls and friends look to break the

Are we headed for a Hyperinflationary Depression?

2009-05-30T22:51:00.007-04:00

I agree with pretty much everything in this article - link below. Lots of deflation talk from some pundits - maybe in some things (like the dollar? ha.), but not precious metals and commodities in my opinion with the current deficit / obligations of the US, Obamanomics, Bernanke "making it rain" for the bankers like they are strippers at Scores, other countries following Bernanke's gameplan, a

A little bit raw - always honest

2009-05-30T00:32:00.005-04:00

Late night on Friday having a night cap in beautiful metro Detroit - in the eye of the economic hurricane folks.If you were short into the the 3 o'clock hour today you are probably still out drinking and talking about how much BS that 2% rally in the last 30 minutes was. I agree - but at the same time I am not surprised going into the end of the month. First, I think the current market is more