There was a bit of a stir earlier in the week as more than a few people noticed an interesting point in an otherwise innocuous Bloomberg story about Eaton Vance liquidating dirt bonds in Florida. This is the line that caught some eyes:

"Dumping the so-called dirt bonds at a discount was a better bet, the Boston-based Metzold said, than taking over 218 empty acres from the project’s builder and waiting for a real-estate rebound that may not come until the early 2030s, according to a Moody’s Economy.com forecast."

2030 is not a typo.

Obviously South Florida residential real estate is in bad shape – but that market isn’t in a vacuum. Zillow.com reports that home prices in Boston may have already begun a double dip downward. And so it goes.

I’ve written previously about the other side of the coin: commercial real estate. $1 trillion in loans are due to mature beginning this year and continuing through 2013. A PricewaterhouseCoopers and Urban Land Institute report says that “most investors will recognize massive losses in the commercial real estate market. Value declines will eventually total 40-50% off market highs.” 

What does this have to do with jobs? A lot.

Sustained economic recovery depends in no small part on the construction industry and affiliated businesses. Keep your eyes on the real estate market. It’s a key driver when it comes to the employment outlook.

Reuters reported Monday that a study released by economists for the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank indicates a somewhat more pessimistic view of the employment forecast for the balance of 2010 than the general consensus.

The Fed economists point to productivity, which has been climbing (and continues to) at an above-average pace, as a bellwether of what could come.

Reuters: “Companies' ability to keep output steady, even as they slashed jobs, meant the unemployment rate rose twice as fast as predicted by the historical relationship between gross domestic product and unemployment, known as Okun's law…”

Apparently, most economists believe the economy will settle back into its “normal” path this year as they expect the Okun ratio will kick back in.

What if it doesn’t?

Businesses have been focused on cost-containment, adaptability and flexibility for quite a while now. What if that’s the “new normal” – and Okun’s law no longer applies?

This is what these Fed economists suggest could occur. If they’re right, most of the forecasts we’ve been hearing will have been overly optimistic.

It’s not unusual for hiring companies to have certain “minimum requirements.” For example, an MBA may be a prerequisite for candidates wishing to pursue employment.

One of my clients, a major employer within its industry, fit this description. This company would not consider candidates without MBAs. Not only would they not hire you, they wouldn’t even talk to you. No exceptions. No degree, no interview – period.
 
(Obviously there are very good candidates who don’t have advanced degrees. The hiring company sometimes shoots itself in the foot with this type of arbitrary requirement. When they draw a line in the sand, though, it’s very difficult to get around it. They get to make the rules. This is one very effective means of narrowing the pool.)

Inevitably, people thought they could “game” the system. There were candidates who were convinced the company would take one look at their qualifications and make an exception. So they’d ignore the stated restriction, submit their resumes anyway, and relentlessly work the phones in an attempt to crack the door open.

Others would go further: they’d get a little “creative” with their resumes. Educational credentials included nonexistent degrees, or candidates would indicate degrees had been conferred when, in reality, the candidate had just begun the MBA program. Or had taken some coursework in the past. And so on.

One quick call to the registrar and the jig would be up.

Don’t have your MBA…or have it yet? What to do:

Don’t Lie
If you don’t have the degree, don’t say you do. This is the kind of “bad press” you can’t afford. The hiring company, the recruiter, the person who referred you – people will remember this kind of material misrepresentation. You may get away with it this time, but you will likely be outed at some point and it could cost you your job – and your reputation.

Don’t Mislead
Don’t imply that you have the MBA. For example, you list the school name, location, degree and year in bold – then in tiny, tiny text you slip in the fact that you only completed 16 hours of coursework. 15 years ago. This only makes you look foolish.

Currently Working toward the MBA? Go For It
If you’re enrolled in an MBA program, go ahead and include it on your resume…especially when you’re close to finishing. Follow the format you used for your undergraduate degree, only this time you’ll indicate that you’re currently completing your coursework and that the date listed is when the degree will be conferred (make that very clear).

If there’s a firm MBA requirement, you may miss out on some opportunities. Better that than lying about your credentials and being found out...whether it’s now or 10 years from now. It’s a black mark you don’t want next to your name.

The Interview Edge - a comprehensive guide for people who are serious about their careers. Available in instantly downloadable format.

Career management and business strategy have a lot in common. If you’re purposefully charting your career path, you’re looking toward the future and developing your roadmap accordingly.

That said, both corporate and career planning are different animals now than they were just 15 years ago. With the pace of change accelerating rapidly, it’s becoming much more difficult to accurately predict what’s going to happen in the future. 5-year plans are, at best, general strategies.

The goals, objectives and assumptions that were the basis for the creation of the plan could change – sometimes materially – very rapidly. We can’t count on consistency.

Does this mean career planning is a waste of time?

Absolutely not.

What it does mean, though, is that you need to shift your thinking – and design your plan – to excel in a fluid environment. Get creative and look at the world through a pair of “what if” glasses. (If this or that were to happen, how would I adapt? How could I be ready? How could I capitalize on the situation?)

What do you need to create your plan?

Stay Informed
Proactively gather information. Know what’s going on in your company, your industry, the business climate in general, and in Washington. Understand what trends are developing in each of those arenas, and how they could impact your current job as well as your anticipated career path. You’ll be much better positioned to steer to avoid the pothole if you're paying attention to the road ahead.

Commit to Ongoing Education
Whether or not you’re marketable is up to you. Stay on top of the competencies that are considered desirable. Be aware of how jobs are changing. The general trend is toward much broader skill sets. Are you adapting, or will you be left behind? It’s your responsibility to continue to develop your skills. Determine what you need to learn; then figure out how to acquire that knowledge.

Get Out of Your Comfort Zone
Volunteer for assignments that will enable you to expand your skills, that provide exposure to areas outside of your current job description, and which include functions most often handled by the level of management one step above you. Acquiring a working knowledge of a variety of functional areas will increase your promotability, open up lateral avenues on your career track, and make you more marketable to outside companies. It’ll also help you broaden your “what if” perspective.

Be Ready to Respond Rapidly
Keep your resume updated. That means reviewing it at least every six months. Nurture your network; take care of these relationships and stay in touch with these people – they’re an excellent source of good information, job leads and introductions.

Be Open to Change
It’s here to stay. Better to embrace it and figure out how to capitalize on it than lamenting the fact that consistency is a thing of the past. (Upside: you will not be bored!)

The best career strategies are created with a fair amount of experimental thinking and a spirit of adaptability. Based on your ongoing due diligence, think about possible scenarios that could develop and always have alternate plans in mind. Be ready to shift gears. Be open to a variety of approaches.