The Kirk Report

Q&A With Larry Connors

Charles E. Kirk — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 09:59:57 PDT

In continuing this excellent series, I'm pleased to present this Q&A with Larry Connors.

For many of you, Larry needs no introduction as the CEO and founder of the TradingMarkets website and someone who I've linked to his research and commentary. In sum, Larry brings a lot of experience and insight that I think you'll find tremendously helpful. I have personally incorporated (and further built upon) at least a couple of Larry's trading strategies.

Larry started his career in 1982 at Merrill Lynch and later moved on to become a Vice President with Donaldson, Lufkin, Jenrette. In addition to his role as CEO of The Connors Group, Mr. Connors serves as a Managing Partner of Connors Research LLC, a private investment and financial markets research firm. Larry has almost 30 years of experience working in the financial markets industry.

Many of you also probably know the he has also authored top-selling books on market strategies and volatility trading, including How Markets Really Work, Street Smarts (with Linda Raschke), Short-term Trading Strategies That Work, and most recently, High Probability ETF Trading. Larry also shares many of his insights online through intensive trading seminars.

We hope you enjoy and find this Q&A helpful....[READ]

Hope Floats

Charles E. Kirk — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 15:07:58 PDT

Stocks kick off second-half with a win
A wild ride so far
A slip in consumer confidence
Wall Street's fear gauge
Stock market sentiment according to Google Trends
Obama presents bill to create consumer-finance watchdog
New financial commission is stuck
Is the Fed still independent?
Auditing the Fed
Central Banks at work
Risk of raising rates too late
Spending on lobbying and compaign contributions this year
A company getting a charge from your tax dollars
10 things your congressperson won't say
Stimulus spending per person shows disparity
There's no news like bad news
Can you balance California's budget? Give it a shot!
Why isn't the stimulus stimulating?
School boards are now wrestling with mammoth budget shortfalls
Trucking stocks facing road bumps
Did you know that as many as 1 in 5 hotel loans may default?
What about those gaming stocks?
Retailers eagerly await back-to-school sales season
Auto sales in June
A really long-term perspective on housing prices
Priced to sell
All eyes on the H&S pattern

* More links (and posts) can be found at the members' only website.

Sparklers

Charles E. Kirk — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 11:52:56 PDT

The End of the Recession?
Economically speaking, we're closer to bottom
Are we there yet? Not quite
Many challenges are still ahead
The financial crisis in pictures
New norm, bad norm
More misery for U.S. housing?
The spa indicator & golf indicator
Results from another stock market poll
The Dumb Money indicator remains bullish to an extreme degree
Recent sentiment trends are encouraging
Investors are moving in lockstep like never before
Where are we in the annual optimism cycle?
This rally has been stronger than most
We appear to continue in a broad trading range between May's lows and June's highs
MACD divergence signals
Strong IPO performance is definitely much more indicative of a bull market than a bear market
What is hyping the market?
Planning stages for Stimulus II
Bailout tracker!
Has the finance industry captured our government?
Without valuation gains, ongoing borrowing pushes the U.S. deeper in the red
America The Unsustainable?
Inflation - the real threat to sustained recovery
Apples and Inflation
Are predominant fears over rising interest rates overblown?
The case against inflation
Where's Volcker?
Another roast for Bernanke
Mystery of fake U.S. Bonds fuels web theories
Wall Street's largest bond-trading firms say the worst may be over for investors in Treasuries
Bonds vs. Stocks
The case for corporate bonds
Timing the endgame in government bonds
A seasonal factor for biotechs
All bets are off if we end up in a hot conflict with North Korea
Boehner's thoughts on the climate bill
Coal's new friends
Why so many green jobs are sprouting in Colorado
U.S. companies seek new tax havens
Gold, green and the fate of the dollar
5 reasons why this could be a hot summer for gold & silver
Is gold an inflation hedge?
Where's all the gold?
Why basic material ETFs could be the next superstars
European economic confidence rises more than expected
Coordination falls away as the global crisis abates
The big money flow - emerging market hedge funds surge
5 things to know about Indonesia ETF
Four reasons to get bullish on Japan
Will small emerging country ETFs be rewarded for forecasted growth?
China's predicament
China reiterates call for new world reserve currency
How will the 908 billion yuan be spent in 2009?
Fear the dark side of China's lending surge
Can Asians replace Americans as a driver of global growth?
Global property slide may be long
The most expensive real estate markets in the world
The big squeeze in Ivy League endowments
After failing at the hedge fund racket, Ron Isana attempts to reinvent himself as a newsletter guru
Top performing Russell stocks
Head-and-shoulder patterns
Telechart scans for Dave Landry's persistent pullbacks
Five blue-chip stocks with revolutionary new products
AFG's buy-sell list
5 stocks analysts have overlooked
The Dow's 5 cheapest stocks
Dow Theory's mid-year favorites
20% Dividend Yields?
The 20 largest stock buybacks from the 1Q 2009
The most volatile stocks (watch those stops)
Top 1000 World Banks 2009
JPMorgan CEO warns against too many regulators
Goldman Sachs - the great American bubble machine
A nice big loophole for GE
What's in Capital One's wallet?
Microsoft defends its empire
Best Buy's next big step
Palm investors should sweat
The blowup at Eastman Kodak
The risk of lottery plays
Economists don't make good traders. Here's why!
I've posted this before, but in case you haven't seen it - Dennis Gartman's trading rules
How to trade trend and range-bound days in the market
A crib sheet for government data
Great resource - spreadsheet templates, calculators, and calendars
Market timing crucial when buying ETFs
Regulators urge caution on triple leveraged ETFs
Will actively-managed ETFs soon replace funds?
Preferred-stock ETFs shine
Three simple steps for a successful retirement
How to survive any economic downturn
Are you cheating on your financial planner?
7 ways to avoid a Madoff moment
New rules designed to make money funds safer do not go far enough
How to determine which investments are not insured by the FDIC
What happened to Michael Jackson's millions?
The Descent into credit card debt
How to make a budget and wipe out debt with Quicken Online
How to put your money on autopilot
Easy and secure group collaboration over email
The thoughts of Chairman Green
Powerful ways to improve your life
"Most people, most of the time, all over the world, choose to go along. We vote with the tribe." - Roger Ebert

ETFs Up +50% Since March 31st

Charles E. Kirk — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 07:09:11 PDT

At quarter-end it is always interesting to see what some basic performance scans show up. Case in point, the ETFs which are up more than +50% since the closing price on March 31st:

The top performer has been the Emerging Markets Bull 3X (EDC) with a +102% gain over this time frame:

As we can see from its chart, we recently violated the ATR stop, got very oversold, and then bounced. But, we haven't take out those former highs and remain vulnerable for 1) another breakdown or 2) a lengthy sideways consolidation phase. If you look closely enough, you'll also see something I'm finding in quite a few charts of late - an ominous head-and-shoulders formation.

Either way, this one should be on your radar as it may serve as a good tell for the overall market.

Madoff & M&A Monday

Charles E. Kirk — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 05:52:36 PDT

Good morning. We're set for a higher open at the start of this four-day trading week. News and data flow are on the slow side again, but there are a few noteworthy items to review including a plethora of merger & acquisition announcements.

First off, we have M&A activity between consulting firms Towers Perrin Forster & Crosby and Watson Wyatt Worldwide, Enterprise and Teppco have announced a merger, Novartis is reportedly in talks to buy parts of Elan, Anglo American is in talks to sell a major investment stake to Aluminum Corp. of China, and Vodafone is considering a bid to buy T-Mobile UK.

In other news, five more banks were seized by regulators, General Electric's CEO Immelt says cyclical downturn is now behind us, Obama's aid Romer is upbeat on US economy, late Friday the House passed the Climate & Energy bill, and the Honduran President is ousted in coup.

Premarket gainers: DCGN, CYTR, EVTC, FTWR, EXP, SIRI, CFW, MNI, LEE, FULT, BPHX, MDRX, CAEI, TRW, FEED, KIRK, CSIQ, SPPI, SLM, FRE, FNSR, PCAR, DFS, JASO, CLR, SNY, ELN, & SNP.

Premarket losers: RAE, HTM, HMPR, BIIB, DPTR, UEC, LEA, FCH, ARL, TLM, CTIC, SIMG, OPEN, SYUT, ALY, CRME, KOL, CHBT, SYMX, FNLC, & ZEP.

While there will be plenty of economic data to consider later this week, for today there's nothing on the calendar. Instead, expect the focus of the day to be on this morning's M&A activity, Madoff's sentencing and preparing for Thursday's jobs report.

Let's make it a great week!

Friday Mailbag

Charles E. Kirk — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 11:33:37 PDT

It's time for another mailbag. A lot of great questions have been sent in. Thank you!

Topics for today include:

Pyramiding
A Devil's Advocate On Real Estate
Question On Options Trading
The Danger Of Political Bias
Is Market Timing Prudent?
Screening An Investment Idea
Suggestions For A Beginner
Managing Washout Stops
Finding Good Entry Points
The Problem With Popular Indicators

* This is a members' only post. To read, please login.

Top Stock Picks For 2009

Charles E. Kirk — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 09:34:26 PDT

One of the things I like to do around the middle of the year is to review some of the tracking lists that I create of those "top stock picks for 2009" that we hear so much around the start of each year. I enjoy this exercise because it it lends perspective on situations that have and haven't lived up to their high expectations with the benefit of the hindsight of the past six months.

One of my favorite tracking lists in this regard is the annual BloggingStocks poll which asked 75 advisors their "favorite stock for 2009." I like this list because it requires each advisor to also provide an simple explanation for each pick they provide.

In review of the performance so far of these picks, the overall list is currently up +10% year-to-date. The top five best performers are Teck Cominco Limited (TCK), Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), Freeport Mcmoran (FCX), E-House China Holdings Limited ADR (EJ), & PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long ETN (DXO).

The bottom five worst performers are ProShares UltraShort Financials (SKF), Emergent BioSolutions Inc (EBS), Fuel Systems Solutions Inc (FSYS), Ezcorp (EZPW) & Allegiant Travel (ALGT).

Now take a moment to read the analysis of each of these recommendations when the pick was made:

Top 5 Performers:

Bottom 5 Performers:

In your view, which analysis above surprised you the most and why? Do any of these recommendations (good or bad) still hold value? What were the key mistakes made so far? Is there anything common in the stocks that have outperformed the most?

When I started learning about stocks, this tracking and evaluation process with the benefit of some hindsight is something I did all of the time to learn and understand what it takes to pick the best stocks. Do this enough and you'll begin to see the same sort of patterns emerge year after year after year.

Fearful Of The Fed

Charles E. Kirk — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 05:50:40 PDT

Good morning. Premarket futures are showing a positive bias following strength in overseas markets and a better than expected durable goods report.

Other headlines in focus include earnings from Oracle, rising mortgage applications, the OECD raises its outlook for the first time in two years, a government watchdog wants a new government agency to protect consumers from banks, and Citigroup plans to raise base salaries as much as 50% to compensate for reduced bonuses.

Premarket gainers: MGM, STX, OCLS, NCS, AIB, NM, FRZ, HST, EDC, AM, CTIC, CLNE, STSI, USU, AGEN, PETM, CYBX, SOL, AAUK, ORCL, PALM, APWR, DRYS, RIMM, OREX, AVAV, BCS, TS, C, MT, NOK, SONC, & ESLR.

Premarket losers: ZRAN, LYG, PQ, AGP, SVU, EDZ, RT, FXP, OI, EEV, SRS, SMN, TPX, TZA, FAZ, STI, OSIR, ROY, WFR, JBL, DRI, HLIT, AGP, SNY, & BGZ.

At 10:AM we have the New Home Sales report, at 10:30 the weekly oil inventories, and at 2:15 the FOMC announcement.

There's a belief that if we're going to get a reversal, the Fed will be the catalyst as they try to reassure the market that the punchbowl of easy money will not be taken away anytime soon, that the economy is recovering, and that inflation is of little concern. In other words, the Fed is expected to tell the market exactly what it so much wants to hear.

Keep in mind that when the S&P gaps up greater than +0.5% on a Fed day, it has closed greater than the open 10 out of 11 times for an average of +1.2% according to Jason Goepfert. Unfortunately, the gains produced on Fed days often are reversed the following day. For what it is worth, I am seeing some selling within the leveraged bearish ETFs in premarket trading, so it appears that at least some bears are fearful of the Fed as oversold conditions remain in place.

Have a great Fed day!

On The Radar

Charles E. Kirk — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 09:04:16 PDT

CEOs stay pessimistic about economy
A tale of two depressions
A decent question - has the World Bank or IMF ever been right?
Where are you in this cycle?
Where we are in the cycle
Long-horizon risk aversion creates headwinds
U.S. households may take as long as 15 years to rebuild wealth lost in the recession
The market reminds the Fed to keep the easy money flowing
The Federal Reserve is looking for balance this week
What’s next, inflation or deflation?
Watch out for a big jump in consumer prices
Sign of the times - a blog offering news from 1930
Red chutes move deeper into the June Gloom
Bears make a run
Trader Mike shares an T2108 update among other things
How about that banking index?
S&P collision course
Holy VIX!
S&P watch: could the bottom drop out?
Five battles will define the war
California collapsing
White House sees double digit unemployment within months
Numbers on welfare see share increase
OECD warns on pensions crisis
Corporate spreads still have a way to go
This had to happen before housing could find a bottom
"Green Sprouts. If I hear that term one more time I may shoot myself. While it's perfectly normal to hope for positive rays of sunshine, the desperate search for hopeful signs may reflect an unwillingness to change – and an unwillingness to accept change." - Erik Sorenson
The tech sector does not look as strong as many analysts claim
Blame the weather for cool retail sales?
FTC plans to monitor blogs for conflicts of interest (something you never have to worry about here)
Financial regulation changes in chart form
Stupid bankers never learn
Ayn Rand's novel is remembered more than ever
10 hottest commodities of 2009
Estimated costs for climate-change legislation
OPEC hopes for $80 oil
Energy stocks will surge when the recession ends
Railroads as a green investment?
Money flow around the world
Inflation rates around the world
More confidence in China
EU takes WTO action against China
Time to go long Indonesia
The story of 9 failed currencies
Timing the trade in Obama stocks
Fortune's 40 best stocks to retire on
Screening For Value
Popular stocks among top newsletters are widely diversified
Stocktwits top tickers
The bet on the best approach
Apple's Tim Cook has emerged as a star in his own right
How Goldman squeezes profits
Netflix's CEO thinks his core business is doomed
Diedrich Coffee: piping hot or cooling off?
Something smells at NTT
Taking a very close look at Saks
Baidu vulnerable to market swoon
Four reasons to listen to Oracle
Do CEOs matter?
Do seasonal factors only work in certain kinds of markets?
In praise of non-conformity
ABC's of Stock Trading
4 mental keys that help trading performance
2 ways to trade a pullback
How to stay objective in your trades
If you have time in July, I'd recommend putting Dr. Steenbarger's trading seminar on your calendar
Pogue's productivity secrets
Do you take time to zone out?
I use the day grid balancer to manage my workflow
Investors are getting killed in ETFs
It's easy to determine just how bad the average investor is at timing
Q&A with John Bogle
A do-it-yourself approach to target-date retirement investing
Active managers get the cold shoulder (and deserve it)
Indexed ETFs geared to copy hedge-fund performance
Just 5 ETFs.....and you're all set?
Asset allocation backtesting software
The best way to maximize your investment return
The other costs of home ownership
Free online money management tools
10 ways to lower the cost of banking
10 ways to grow grass and cut lawn care costs
Car dealer tricks
The real value of marbles
Should you buy a smartphone?
Unique hotels of the world
Make sense of SMS TXT lingo - use transL8it!
How to be a millionaire? Start thinking like one!
Best advice I ever got
"Next to knowing when to seize an opportunity, the most important thing in life is knowing when to forego an advantage." - Benjamin Disraeli

Monday Headlines

Charles E. Kirk — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 05:49:36 PDT

Good morning. Premarket futures are pointing lower. Overall, news flow remains on the slow side as we start out the new trading week.

Top headlines include a lowered outlook for global growth by The World Bank, insiders exit U.S. stocks at fastest pace in two years, drug makers trim prices for health overhaul, unemployment in California jumped to 11.5% in May, and U.S. regulators closed three more banks.

In other headlines we have continued health concerns for Steve Jobs, US lodges China censorship complaint, the Fed weighs major changes to the repo markets, a couple of lawmakers want Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to relax recently tightened standards for new condo mortgages, Congress will take a second shot at the derivatives industry, and George Soros says worst of global crisis is behind us.

Premarket gainers: SUAI, MEDX, AAUK, BCON, EMKR, MRVL, AVII, NSU, LSI, MVIS, SIRI, TRA, & TNK.

Premarket losers: SWHC, JAZZ, ALVR, ESLR, CENX, SSRI, AHT, ATPG, ONNN, ACGY, ALU, DB, RTP, HMY, TLB, BJS, ZZ, STSI, MT, AXA, FRPT, KIRK, PAAS, SOLF, & RIMM.

Other the post options expiration activity, there are no economic reports scheduled for today and nothing of significance on today's calendar. Data will pick up tomorrow ahead of this week's Fed meeting. Much like last week, all eyes will be set again on Bethpage and the U.S. Open as they finish up the golf championship today.

Go make it a great Monday!

Little To Work With

Charles E. Kirk — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 15:13:23 PDT

Market participants really had little to work with this week and it shows.

For the week, the S&P 500 fell -2.64%, Dow -2.95%, Nasdaq -1.69%, and the Russell 2000 fell -2.68%.

Depending on your point of view, this week was either a pullback to be bought or a warning sign of a rough, volatile summer ahead. Or, rather a little bit of both. No matter what your view, we should have much more to work with next week with the Fed meeting, more Treasury auctions, and some key economic reports. In addition, we're on the verge of seeing a key golden cross in the S&P 500.

As you know from reading my comments this week, I was willing to put some money to work in the weakness (of course with stops) and give the market some room to prove me wrong for doing so. I'm comfortable with that stance headed into next week. The good thing about this position is that I'll know if I'm wrong being long anything fairly soon and I was able to get some decent entry points on stocks that I think have some potential even in a rough environment.

Before I go, I want to wish a very happy Father's Day weekend to all. This very Monday, it will be the 10th anniversary of my father's passing from complications due to diabetes. Sadly, it seems like yesterday. If your father is still around, be sure to let him know how much he means to you and how important he has been in your life. There's not a single day that goes by that I don't miss mine. See you on Monday!

Shaking The Money Tree

Charles E. Kirk — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 09:21:42 PDT

Green shoots turning brownish
Tracking the Second Great Depression
A more balanced bull vs. bear debate
First quarter wiped out $1.3 trillion for Americans
Geithner says rebound will take time
Fed's Warsh warns of false optimism on U.S. economy
The recovery is coming, really
How does the current economic and financial downturn match up to past contractions?
This is what the great recession looks like
Media falls for phony jobs claims
U.S. college grads shun Wall Street for Washington
The light touch of Obama
A new financial foundation
White House bows to political reality with financial overhaul
A Wall Street fairy tale
Regulatory revamp targets securities at heart of crisis
Bank lobbyists vs. Obama's 'nudgers'
More Wall Street games
Ex-programmer dismayed by Wall Street creation
A recession so deep that teens are feeling the pain
Recession hits U.S. tourism
Even Forbes is pinching pennies
Checkmate at the Yellowstone Club
Consumer spending still challenging
A new spirit of sobriety takes hold
US philanthropy suffers biggest fall in 50 years
With 15 million kids expected to go hungry this summer, Morgan Stanley helps out
As moratoriums expire, home ejectments climb
6 states hitting residents with big tax hikes
Another character change for the market
Market sees defensive rotation
Supply and demand - the supply of stock is mushrooming
A big stock decline is met by nervousness rather than a rush to buy on the dip
Will this be a lucky 6?
Another month, yet another lousy expiration week
Analysts see green shoots
Wealthy investors are paralyzed by the market
The Dumb Money indicator has moved to new bullish extremes
A rumor and the VIX
Is the move from the March lows just a charade?
Putting the market's 40% rally in perspective
Optimism is not enough for a global recovery
What do you believe is not true?
Paul Krugman's fear for lost decade
Do we really care what Valueline thinks?
Market chatter over green shoots and rising prices has fueled a bear market rally that won't last despite policymaker 'noise'
Using ETFs to see market's warning signs
This rally needs a new source of fuel
When all the experts and forecasts agree something else is going to happen
Are you an investing chameleon?
Q&A with Dr. Anna Schwartz
Our exploding money supply
The biggest bill in history
America's debt is Barack Obama's biggest weakness
If printing money isn't the cure, what really is?
Will lightening strike twice? Black Swan Trader bets reputation on inflation
U.S. chooses four utilities to revive nuclear industry
Oil bulls have seen the future and it doesn't work
Another shot in the arm for crude oil
Steep contango points to sharp rebound in natural gas
All eyes remain on the Natural Gas ETF
As wind power grows, a push to tear down dams
Green jobs sector poised for explosive growth
Go meatless on Mondays
S&P cuts banks' credit ratings
Small bank failure angers both victims and supporters
Dead banks walking
Cramer calls a housing bottom again (he'll be right eventually)
"It is difficult to imagine a sustained, vigorous bull market when the financial system and housing are not inspiring investor confidence." - Brett Steenbarger
Nail-biting in shipping
Hospital stocks need emergency care
Biggest shift in U.S. healthcare may emerge in 45-day sprint
Biotech calendar of key clinical trial dates
Airlines see revenue vanish as fares tumble
The days of the free Internet will draw to a close over the next five years
Technology is easily the biggest sector of the market right now
What's up with copper?
How much gold should investors hold
U.S. must return to gold and silver money
Buy China policy set to raise tensions
Recalibrating U.S.-China
China banks on organic growth for now
Russia's Bear Case
The recent surge in Japanese real-estate stocks is unreal
Infrastructure ETFs target global trend
A daring trade that has Wall Street seething
George Soros urges governments to outlaw 'toxic credit default swaps
Will the derivatives markets ever be regulated?
Madoff killed off the fund of hedge funds model
This week's earnings preview
More GE gibberish
Qualcomm upgraded to Goldman's conviction buy list
Bank of America as a bellwether stock
Credit cards losses are accelerating at Capital One
More hype over Amazon's Kindle
The #1 pharmaceutical trade for this year?
The price is right at Aeropostale
Buy the pullback in NetEase.com?
What about Shanda?
How much to break even for GM?
An update to the Kass Model Portfolio
Scanning for pullback entries in Telechart
5 cash-rich companies at bargain prices
Q&A with Kirk
What is your statistical likelihood of your risk of ruin?
How much scratch do you really need in order to trade for a living?
How self-critical are you?
Love trading options? Visit CrimsonMind
Summertime reading - 25 books about money
Books that profile fund managers
Trade the news? I don't think so!
Know what you own, redux
FAS & FAZ: a short-seller's dream
Growth is outperforming value
How traders killed investing
A dress rehersal for Quants
Actively managed mutual funds are among the most notable winners recently. But, will this last? (History suggests no)
Building a portfolio that will stay afloat when inflation returns
Don't count on TIPS
Bear market brings new funds for the fearful
Time to go long Ginnie Maes?
Everything's a tradeoff
Retirement-planning software needs an overhaul
Legacy Locker - the safe and secure way to pass your online accounts to your friends and loved ones
Find a better bank
Superminder can help you remember to get things done
Online mentoring with people who share your goals
A system for developing good habits
A little something to add to your Christmas wish list
How to get the best exchange rate and avoid fees when traveling overseas
Need a cheaper cell phone plan? Check out Straight Talk
Have you backed up your computer lately? If not, take a look at Spideroak
Paper or Plastic?
Making the case for using twitter (again)
Geocaching offers the remedy for the naycation blues
Geocaching: a fun family activity
Do you need an umbrella today?
Biggest millionaire flops
Want to be humbled? Things other people accomplished when they were your age
Don't waste your time and energy playing misery poker
9 great ways to live a more positive life
"Many people take no care of their money till they come nearly to the end of it, and others do just the same with their time." - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

Emerging Markets: Pullback or Rollover

Charles E. Kirk — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 10:41:35 PDT

It's been awhile since we've seen a meaty pullback in the emerging markets area. This group lead us higher, so will it also lead us lower?

Looking over the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF (EEM) (especially utilizing a 2 period RSI coupled with the modified ATR trailing stop) we're testing a key level in today's session. The last time we saw the RSI this oversold was back in April which offered an attractive risk/reward pullback setup. If the rally in emerging markets is going to continue, watch for a snapper soon.

Among many other things, something I'll be keeping front and center on my radar over the next few days.

Home On The Range

Charles E. Kirk — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 08:15:43 PDT

Although we've seen a couple of attempts to break out, we remain deadlocked in the same trading range we've been in since the first day of June.

For the week, the S&P 500 gained +0.65%, Dow +0.41%, Nasdaq +0.51%, and the Russell 2000 fell b>-0.67%.

According to Bloomberg, the S&P 500 hasn't posted a daily rise or fall of 1% or more since June 4, the longest stretch in 14 months. Since Sept. 15, when Lehman Brothers filed the largest-ever U.S. bankruptcy, 131 out of the 188 trading days have had moves of that size.

Nevertheless, to do well this week you had to be long crude (UCO), utilities (UPW), semiconductors (USD), base metals (DBB), telecom (LTL), & shipping (SEA). We also saw good gains in Thailand (THD), Sweden (EWD), & Australia (EWA).

I'll be away from the trading desk again this Monday, but will return Tuesday morning. Have a great weekend!

Head Scratching

Charles E. Kirk — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 09:57:20 PDT

Fed Beige Book sees continued weakness
Fresh data offers hope
On the economy - have we hit bottom yet?
10 reasons the worst of the crisis is over
10 things that could still go wrong with the economy
Bankers are more reluctant than economists to express confidence in recovery
Ad spending fell 14% in first quarter
Market downturn hit lawmakers
The California countdown
Google as unemployment predictor
Do U.S. economic stats lie?
Bloggers versus experts
The economy is still at the brink?
Bailouts galore bewilder market
Expect the return to normalcy
It is lonely in the diminishing camp of bear
"I believe that investors should not rule out even the 500 level on the S&P 500 as a plausible outcome over the coming 18 months." - John Hussman
Status quo
The story of the current market as told via ETFs
Never short a dull market!
Can stocks go sharply higher from here?
Fed would be shut down if it were audited
Favorite investment books from investing bloggers
"What separates the 1% from the other 99% is a lot of hard work. It's perseverance. You have to love to do it." - Tom Baldwin

* Many more great links can be found at my members' only website.