McGuire's Law

Observations: Services - November 5, 2009

Russ — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 11:08:26 +0000

Standard disclaimer: don’t take from my selections, ordering, headlines, etc. any indications of the interests or plans of my employer (if you do, you’ll undoubtedly be disappointed when they don’t play out.)

Big Bell Dogma: October 2009

Russ — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 17:15:09 +0000

As we work to build mobility into every product, service, and process, our greatest inhibitor is the mindset represented by those who defend the tethering of products and processes to specific places. This mindset is fueled by the investments that have been made that establish power in the companies, departments, and individuals that stand in the way of mobilizing our lives and our businesses. These investments are not always in hard assets, but often are investments of time and experience to establish intellectual and relational assets. We should expect our assault on these ways to be defended to the death. Here are recent examples:

Recent Research: October 2009

Russ — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 16:32:44 +0000

Research is good. Free highlights from expensive research reports are great. Here are some recent headlines:

Symbian Handset Shipments to Reach 180 Million by 2014 (Juniper Research)
Femtocell Revenues Will Remain Small Through 2010 (Unstrung Insider)
4.6 billion mobile subscriptions by the end of 2009 (ITU)
Telemedicine Spending to Approach $3.6 Billion Annually by 2014 (Pike & Fischer)
Memory Card Based Mobile Phone Shipments to Swell to 990 Million by 2013 (Strategy Analytics)
Mobile navigation users increased twofold year-on-year to 28 million (Berg Insight)
Wi-Fi Still Rules As Consumer Electronics Network Connections Grow (ABI Research)
Linux to Capture over 60 Percent of Smartphone Market (Telecom Trends International)
US mobile ad revenues to reach $4.2bn in 2015, 70% from search (Coda Research)
Google Mobile Search to Top $500M by 2011 (Jefferies & Co.)
Global MPLS over WiMAX - Fixed and Mobile (Research & Markets)
FMC and femtocell equipment forecast to hit $7.4 billion in 2013 (Infonetics)
Nearly Half of US Consumers Would Choose a “Green” Handset - At the Right Price (ABI Research)
2.5 Billion Bluetooth Low Energy Chipsets to Ship in 2014 (ABI Research)
Off-Grid Charging for Mobile Phones to Power US$2.3bn Market Opportunity (GSMA)
Global WiMAX Subscriber Base Reaches 4 Million (Maravedis)
Apple Helping to Drive Mobile Game Market Sales to $11.7 Billion by 2014 (DFC Intelligence)
Over half a billion people to use mobile money transfer services by 2014 (Juniper)
ITU says 4.6 B subscribers by end of year (ITU)
Uptake of Mobile Data Services Boost Prospects for the Mobile Ad Market (Frost & Sullivan)
Android Smartphone Shipments to Reach 32 Million Units in 2013 (Market Intelligence and Consulting Institute)
385 Million Ultra Mobile Devices to Ship in 2014 (ABI Research)
Apps Store Ecozones to help push Green App Download Volumes to 400m by 2014 (Juniper Research)
Mobile Computing Devices, Handsets Drive 409 Million Unit Wi-Fi Device Market (Strategy Analytics)
Half of U.S. subscribers to access mobile web by 2013 (JBB Research)

What About Android?

Russ — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 15:25:59 +0000

For the November issue of Christian Computing Magazine, I’ve written the below column. As I’ve noted before, the readers of this publication tend to be less aware of mobile technologies and trends than the readers of this blog and are focused on getting up to speed on new technologies and how they can apply to their churches. Even so, I thought y’all might find this article interesting.

For the past couple of years, the Apple iPhone has dominated the attention of mobile phone commentators and enthusiasts. And for good reason. The iPhone redefined how a mobile device can be used to access the Internet and how it can support a vibrant developer community. The downside, as many iPhone fans have lamented, is that the device is only available on one of the four nationwide mobile networks in the U.S., and similarly has been exclusive on a single carrier’s network in most countries around the world.

So, are there any competitors to the iPhone emerging?

The clear answer is yes – in the form of Android. According to the Open Handset Alliance (OHA) website, “Android™ delivers a complete set of software for mobile devices: an operating system, middleware and key mobile applications.” The OHA “is a group of 47 technology and mobile companies who have come together to accelerate innovation in mobile and offer consumers a richer, less expensive, and better mobile experience. Together [they] have developed Android™, the first complete, open, and free mobile platform.”

The prime mover behind the OHA is Google. The Internet giant contributed most of the software in Android. But unlike the iPhone, Android is not controlled by a single company and is not constrained to a narrow set of products exclusively running on a single carrier’s network.

I am currently using the Samsung Moment, Sprint’s second Android handset (the first was the HTC Hero). T-Mobile also already has two Android handsets on the market, the MyTouch and the G1, both from HTC. Verizon is about to introduce their first Android handset, the Motorola Droid. AT&T is also expected to introduce an Android handset in 2010.

That last paragraph speaks volumes to the difference between the Apple approach and the Android approach. Just in the U.S., there will soon be at least five different Android handset models (Moment, Hero, MyTouch, G1, and Droid) from three different major manufacturers (Samsung, Motorola, and HTC) running on three different wireless carriers (Sprint, T-Mobile, and Verizon). Meanwhile, there are only two models (3G and 3Gs) of iPhones, from one manufacturer (Apple) running on one wireless carrier (AT&T).

For anyone who has been around technology for long, it’s not hard to see the parallels to the PC revolution. Apple was the early leader in personal computers with the Apple II, followed by the Apple IIe. Apple really moved the PC industry forward with the ground breaking Macintosh, which introduced a truly graphical mouse-based user interface. Many would still argue that the Macintosh operating environment stands head and shoulders above its Windows-based competitors. However, for the most part, Apple refused to enable other companies to manufacture Macintosh computers, believing that a vertically integrated business model was critical for producing the highest quality product. In large part, I think they’re right.

However, Microsoft worked with Intel to enable lots of companies to produce DOS and then Windows-based computers. Companies like Dell and Compaq flourished and Windows-based PC sales quickly surpassed Macintosh sales. The Mac is still a profitable business for Apple, but primarily serves a niche market.

Most importantly, software developers needed to decide whether to invest their time in writing for Microsoft or Apple operating systems. Before long, it became clear that Windows was the larger market opportunity, usually creating a greater revenue opportunity for roughly the same level of investment. Bill Gates refers to it as a virtuous cycle – the more Microsoft-based PCs that sold, the more attractive the PC was for developers. The more developers wrote software for Microsoft-based PCs, the more attractive the PC was for computer buyers.

Apple appears to be repeating the same set of decisions in the mobile space, and Android appears positioned to be the beneficiary of those decisions. Flurry Analytics, a mobile application analytics company, reported a 94% increase in application project starts by Android developers between September and October of this year. In other words, the number of applications being developed for Android nearly doubled in one month.

Already, there are over 10,000 applications available for Android. That’s only about one-tenth as many as the iPhone, but still more than any single individual could ever comprehend. And I believe it won’t be long before the gap closes and there are more Android apps than iPhone apps.

I’m sure that the iPhone will always have its die-hard loyal fans, and I expect that it will continue to be a very profitable business for Apple. But I also believe that the iPhone’s days are numbered as the leader in the smartphone space. As already noted, all wireless carriers are looking to Android to be an important part of their mobile device portfolio, and Verizon is being especially caustic in their attack of the iPhone with their “iDon’t” ads.

The types of folks that fill our pews every Sunday are starting to wake up to the benefits of Android. What does it mean for our technology ministries?

If you’ve been pursuing any iPhone-centric mobile initiatives, I recommend you pause and consider what will happen when the iPhone becomes a niche solution compared to Android’s market position. How much of what you’re developing is directly applicable to Android? (Web pages optimized for the iPhone may work perfectly for Android since both devices use Webkit-based browsers.) How much can easily be repurposed for Android? And how much is completely focused on the iPhone? (iPhone app development is primarily in Objective-C, while Android is primarily Java and XML.)

It will likely be at least a year (and probably even longer) before Android becomes more dominant than the iPhone. Given that timeframe, it may make sense to continue investing in iPhone-specific development. Or it might not.

Finally, start thinking about what will become possible if Android becomes as common for mobile devices as Windows has for PCs. Notice I still used the word “if” in that sentence, so don’t rush off and act rashly. Still, start considering what will become possible, and identifying the foundational building blocks you can start laying to prepare for an Android future. Are you ready for Java development? Have you started using Android yourself?

Act wisely! Vive le revolution!

Beyond the Phone: October 2009

Russ — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 14:31:55 +0000

Converging products into a cellphone is one way that mobility is getting built into every product, but it’s not the only way. Every month, I’ll focus on devices that are integrating the power of mobility into products themselves in ways that create new value for the customer. Power up!

New CC Mag Article: Using Smartphones to Serve?

Russ — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 13:38:23 +0000

Two months ago I teed up two questions in a column for Christian Computing Magazine:

“Is there a role for smartphones in my church or ministry – can it help us be more productive and successful in serving God?”, and
“Are the people we’re ministering to using these popular new devices, and if so, can we serve them better by leveraging the technology they have in their pockets?”

In this month’s column I seek to answer the second of those questions.

Observations: Uncategorized - October 29, 2009

Russ — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 21:54:29 +0000

Observations: Devices - October 28, 2009

Russ — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 21:28:14 +0000

Observations: Carriers - October 26, 2009

Russ — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 16:14:59 +0000

A Revolutionary Tale

Russ — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 17:47:22 +0000

In many of my recent talks, I’ve been telling a story about the impact of the microprocessor revolution on a specific business transaction. I believe this story paints a picture of the benefits in how we personally interact with the world and how businesses operate that can come from a technology revolution. I believe the mobility revolution is having the same kinds of impact - and will even more as it continues to unfold.

Let me share the story here:

If you’re old enough, think back to 1979 and imagine buying gas and paying for it with a credit card.

The first “a-ha” difference you’ll remember is that you might not have pumped your own gas, but that’s not the focus of my story. It really starts when it comes time to pay and you need to walk into the dark little office with your credit card. The attendant takes your card, grabs this brick like device, slaps your card down in it, puts in a paper form (in triplicate, with two carbon sheets in between) and (ka-chunka, ka-chunka) manually makes an imprint of your card. He fills in the amount of the sale and has you sign. He gives you one copy (and maybe the carbons, if you’re worried about someone stealing your credit card number), and you’re on your way.

Having taken that mental time travel, it’s now easy for you to understand the huge improvement in the customer experience that came from microprocessors being built into the gas pumps. Today, we “pay at the pump” and are immediately on our way as soon as our tank is full. I’m sure you can remember, like I can, after first experiencing “pay at the pump”, driving into a gas station, realizing that they didn’t have pay at the pump, and driving off to find a station that did. The customer experience improvement was so great that it changed consumer behavior and forced virtually all gas stations to follow suit. In short, the microprocessor revolution changed the rules of competition in this industry.

But, I’ve only told you a third of the story so far.

The second part of the story begins when the customer walks out of the office. The gas station attendant takes the two remaining copies of the credit card transaction and files them away. Sometime within the next week, the gas station owner/manager will bundle up all the bank copies of those transactions and send them off to their merchant bank for processing and payment. About a week later, those payments would be credited to the station’s account.

Today, the electronic transaction dramatically accelerates the payment cycle, radically changing the cash flow cycle for the small business owner and enabling her to think differently about her business.

The third part of the story begins when those credit card transactions arrived at the processing center. The merchant bank would have rooms full of clerks, trying to decipher the greasy fingered handwriting of thousands of 16 year old gas station attendants from across the country, and entering the data into mainframe-based systems.

The microprocessor revolution radically changed the core processes, systems, and organizational structures around which this credit card processing business operated. The automated systems radically changed the risk profile of the business (does anyone remember the books full of printed lists of canceled credit cards?) and, of course, the cash flow and transaction volumes accelerated dramatically. With the automation enabled by the microprocessor came significant increases in credit card use, not only at gas stations, but everywhere people spent money.

So, one simple transaction, impacted by a technology revolution, dramatically improves our personal interaction with the world, improves the cash flow for a small business owner, and redefines an entire industry.

Look around your industry for the opportunities to drive the same level (or greater) impact of the mobility revolution. What do you see?