McGuire's Law

Revolutions and Time Telling

Russ — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 14:44:02 +0000

For about a decade I’ve been talking about “bandwidth built in” and for that long I’ve been using the watch as an example. I’ve used it several times in the past month, so I feel compelled to share it with all of you.

Usually when I talk about the Mobility Revolution, I put it in the context of the PC/Microprocessor Revolution and the Internet Revolution, but this story works better to talk about the Electrical Revolution and the Microprocessor Revolution. It’s all the same, really. It’s a story about how new technologies radically change how we interact with the world and the rules of competition across industries in ways that we could never have imagined.

If I were a technology visionary 100 years ago and I went to a watchmaker and said “in the future, virtually all watches will have electricity built in”, he would think I was crazy. In his mind, he would imagine a power cord running to the watch and he would say that no one would buy such a product. He also would recognize that electricity wasn’t even available in much of the U.S., much less the world.

Of course, today, that prediction has come true. Not in the way that the watchmaker envisioned, but through powerful, tiny batteries. No one expects to wind a watch anymore. Electric watches have freed us from the effort of winding, and from the worry that our watch will run down and we’ll need to re-set it - or at least we only need to worry about it every few years when the battery dies.

Thirty years ago, if I’d gone to a watch maker and said “in the future, most watches will have a computer built in”, he would think I was crazy. He’d imagine the computers of the day - huge systems that required raised floor, climate controlled spaces to operate, and he could not imagine how that could be associated with a watch.

I couldn’t quickly find stats to prove this, but I would guess that today, that prediction has come true - that at least a large number of watches sold today are either digital watches, or they are “analog” (they have hands), but they also have microprocessors within them playing some role (even if just for displaying the date).

A decade or so ago, I started saying that “in the future, most watches will have bandwidth built in”. At the time, most people thought I was crazy. They envisioned a modem (remember those?) with a phone wire (remember those?) hanging out, and they couldn’t imagine anyone buying a watch like that.

By the time I started talking about it, I’d already bought a Timex Data Link watch (I still have it around here somewhere). So, I can’t claim to have just dreamed the concept up. Since then, most of the watches I’ve bought have had some form of bandwidth built in, whether they be linked via satellite to the national atomic clock, or even Microsoft’s failed “SPOT” technology. Or my most recent exciting edition - a GPS-based exercise watch!

When I wear a watch that doesn’t have atomic time, I feel inadequate. Even if I’m not traveling across time zones, simply giving up the confidence that my watch is perfectly accurate causes concern (I hate to be late for anything). A brother-in-law who is a jeweler made a completely different observation about the atomic watch. He said “wow, I bet they can make them really cheap that way.” His point was that the mechanism in the watch doesn’t need to be very accurate, because the time is regularly updated with perfect accuracy, offsetting the deficiencies of the internal workings.

However, to prove my point even more than I thought…

Especially for young people, the majority of “watches” certainly have bandwidth built in, but not in the way I’d imagined. I was just as bound by my foolish projection of current models into a future state as the watchmakers of old that I poke fun at in my story.

Today, for many people, the cellphone has completely replaced the watch. My son may grow up never regularly wearing a watch. (Since I have this fascination with watches, he’s felt compelled to wear one for a day or two at different times in his life.) For most people, the cellphone is always with them, it’s time is always accurate, it adjusts to new timezones (if it’s linked to the cellular carrier’s clock) - so why bind your wrist with some leather and metal?

Of course, this “bandwidth built in” is beginning to have a significant impact on the jewelry business.

What does “bandwidth built in” mean for your industry, your business, and how you personally interact with the world?

Observations: Uses - July 2, 2009

Russ — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 19:56:37 +0000

Standard disclaimer: don’t take from my selections, ordering, headlines, etc. any indications of the interests or plans of my employer (if you do, you’ll undoubtedly be disappointed when they don’t play out.)

Recent Research: June 2009

Russ — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 19:55:45 +0000

Research is good. Free highlights from expensive research reports are great. Here are some recent headlines:

Mobile video to top 534 million subscribers by 2014 (Pyramid Research)
Mobile Ad Spending to Grow to $5.7 Billion (Juniper Research)
Sales of Low-Cost Mobile Phones to Reach 700m by 2014 (Juniper Research)
130 million mobile LBS users in Europe by 2014 (Berg Insight)
Scannable coupons will invigorate promotions according to study
Smartphones, data plans, and new apps to drive ad revenue to $1.5B in 2013 (Parks Associates)
Mobile Money Market Worth $5 billion in 2012 (Reuters)
Close to 10 million shipped Femtocell units expected by 2013 (iDate)
Ad-funded MMS Revenues to Hit $87M by 2014 (Juniper Research)
Mobile Email and Mobile Instant Messaging Will Drive Mobile Messaging Growth (Strategy Analytics)
Survey Finds Majority Simply Not Interested in Buying an iPhone (NPD Group)
Worldwide Mobile Services Revenue to Grow at Least 1.2% Annually Through 2014 (ABI Research)
Global Handset Navigation Subscriber Base to Grow to 26 Million by 2010 (ABI Research)
223 Million Smartphones to be Shipped with Open Source Operating Systems by 2014 (Juniper Research)
Global sales of smartphones to reach 310 million units in 2013 (Parks Associates)
366,000 Picocells to be Deployed by 2013 (ABI Research)

Observations: Uncategorized - July 2, 2009

Russ — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 19:54:40 +0000

Happy Birthday to the Walkman!

Russ — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 11:12:31 +0000

An early proof point of the Law of Mobility turns 30 years old today. Happy Birthday Walkman!

From varnelis.net:

On July 1, the Sony Walkman will be 30 years old. It’s hard to imagine what urban life was before the Walkman. Sony first introduced portable transistor radios in 1957 and these proliferated rapidly. With an earphone (like this), it was possible to carry music around on the go, but both sources and quality were limited. Portable cassette players and boomboxes flourished in the 1970s and if the latter served as means of building impromptu communities, they were also consciously thought of as sonic assault devices, marking out territory and creating tension in urban spaces. The Walkman was a counter against this, turning music inward toward a solitary experience (although not entirely: as Scott points out, Walkmen often had two jacks, making them less solitary than iPods). If the boombox represents the last moment of urban decay and street violence, the Walkman represents its re-colonization.

Observations: Services - June 24, 2009

Russ — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 21:07:10 +0000

Enabling Technology: June 24, 2009

Russ — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 21:06:15 +0000

The Law of Mobility talks about value increasing with mobility. The impact of this law is being felt because the barriers to building mobility in are being obliterated week after week. Here are examples of technology advances enabling this to happen:

Observations: Applications - June 24, 2009

Russ — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 21:05:27 +0000

Observations: Devices - June 19, 2009

Russ — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 19:56:21 +0000

The Pre is a Report on the Revolution

Russ — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 18:53:46 +0000

Last week, I was in California for a meeting of the MobileBeat Advisory Board, with a great group of folks helping fuel the mobility revolution. I was asked to share my reflections on the first week of the Pre being on the market. I tied it all back to the mobility revolution, and how Sprint is focused on making mobility instant, compelling, and worry-free. The Pre is a great proof point for all of that.

Then, this week, I read “Three Things the Palm Pre Does Better Than the iPhone 3GS” by John Mahoney at PopSci.com. Especially this quote - “But the Pre and especially its webOS software is so interesting because it’s the first phone to actually build on the trail blazed by the iPhone in some truly key areas of functionality. And what’s more American than some good ol’ fashioned competition begetting forward-looking innovation that elevates the playing field for all?” - reminded me of a piece I wrote almost two years ago, just as the original iPhone was about to hit the market.

Titled “Are we a week away from a revolution?”, I was pretty spot on in picking ways the iPhone would push the mobility revolution forward (okay 3 out of 4 ain’t bad…).

But my favorite hope/prediction was in the closing sentence: “But I’m excited to see how Friday’s release will push our industry to the next level, with new consumer excitement, new consumer enthusiasm (and willingness to spend), and hopefully a strong response from the industry to new consumer expectations.”

With the Pre, I’m glad the closing phrase has come true!