The Long Distance Phillies Fan

Cole Deserved Better

2011-04-06T09:13:00.000-07:00

Cole Hamels looked pretty bad last night in his first start of the season. His command was off, and a mixture of meatballs and walks led to a 6-run third inning. Hamels was yanked after allowing his second hit of the inning to Mets pitcher Chris Young. Upon exiting, Hamels was booed by the sellout crowd at CBP.

I've always been relatively supportive of booing. I grew up in the Philly area, and was raised on WIP and pessimism (with regards to sports). I've defended our fans with regards to J.D. Drew, Donovan McNabb, Eric Lindros and countless others. And as a pretext, let me reiterate that I do not mean this as a general stab at the behavior of Philly fans. I love our passion and I'll defend it against outside criticizers (whose support we don't seek anyway). Passion always beats apathy, even if it means an occasional battery or snowball.

But last night, Cole Hamels deserved better than the response he got.

Cole Hamels is a major reason why the Phils won the 2008 World Series. His dominance in the second half of 2010 helped rehabilitate a struggling team and lead it to the playoffs. Once there, he shut out the best offense in the NL (the Reds) on the road to lead the Phils to the NLCS. He's always been good to the fans and is an active year-round member of the Philadelphia community.

It's easy to get lost in the hype of our "historic" pitching rotation, but get a grip. Bad games will happen. Each of the four aces will likely have a night like this at some point in 2011. One of them may even have a bad month or so. Baseball is a highly-stochastic game and sometimes the ball doesn't bounce your way. Last night's 3rd inning is a good example of this; as bad as Hamels was, all of the hits were singles... some of them loopers and seeing-eye hits.

Cole Hamels, I believe, will be fine. He's historically struggled in April and I have no doubt that his location will return (his velocity is already at mid-season strength). Cut him a break.

Before loudly booing one of the team's best players of the past decade, I wish attending fans had looked out to center-field. There they would have seen 2 red championship flags. If not for Cole Hamels, there may only be 1.

The Worst Phils' Opening Day Lineup Since 1997

2011-04-01T06:17:00.000-07:00

I apologize in advance for the negative tone of this post. Also, allow me to restate that I believe the Phillies remain the favorites to win the NL East. They have assembled a dream Starting 5, and have a competent bullpen. Further, they have the economic resources to patch-up weaknesses in July. Their lineup, however, is loaded with question marks. While it it may turn out strong yet again, I argue that it the worst Opening Day lineup the team has had in 14 years (1997). On that afternoon, a day-game at Chavez Ravine (Dodger Stadium), Curt Schilling guided the Phils to an Opening Day win, one of the few bright spots in what would be a 68-win campaign. The lineup was the following:

* Mickey Morandini 2B
* Kevin Stocker SS
* Gregg Jefferies LF
* Danny Tartabull RF
* Rico Brogna 1B
* Scott Rolen 3B
* Mike Lieberthal C
* Wendell Magee CF

This lineup actually doesn't look that bad at first glance. The problem was that neither Rolen nor Lieberthal had ever been starters, and therefore came into the season as question marks. Further, Tartabull was completely washed-up, a fact reinforced as he would record only 7 ABs and O hits in 1997 after breaking his foot on Opening Day.

In the years which followed, the Phils often (actually, usually) had weak pitching staffs. Omar Daal was the 2001 Opening Day starter, and both Chad Ogea and Terry Adams were penciled-in as #2s at some point. Yeah, they were bad. But the lineups stayed strong. A core of Rolen, Lieberthal, Bobby Abreu, and a mixture of Doug Glanvilles and Ron Gants filled out the roster. These teams scored runs, gave up runs, and typically settled a standard deviation from .500.

By 2003, the lineup was unquestionably strong, as Jim Thome came aboard to complement Pat Burrell, Abreu, and an emerging Jimmy Rollins. Several years later, the core of the modern lineup was born, as Ryan Howard and Chase Utley quickly became stars, finding support from Rollins, Aaron Roward, Jayson Werth, Burrell, Raul Ibanez, and others.

My point is not that the 2011 Phillies will not turn out as well (offensively) as any of these teams. It's that on Opening Day, this one arguably has more uncertainties and concerns than any since 1997. The outfield, which as recently as 2009 had 3 all-stars, now has a career fourth-outfielder (Ben Francisco), a quickly declining left-fielder (Raul Ibanez), and Shane Victorino, a man coming off a down-season in 2010. Waiting in the wings is Domonic Brown, a young prospect who seems to look worse as time progresses (beginning with his call-up last summer, continuing through the Arizona Fall League, and concluding with his short pre-injury stint in Spring Training).

Third base is covered by an aging Placido Polanco, who is bound to struggle with his elbow throughout the season. Ryan Howard also must prove that his decline has not begun. Jimmy Rollins clearly is not the player he once was, and now must prove that he's still league-average at shortstop. This, combined with the over-achieving Carlos Ruiz (in 2010) and Wilson Valdez at 2nd base, is the Phils' 2011 lineup.

For all of it's potential if the above questions are answered positively, there could be significant trouble if they're not.

Indeed, show me any other Phils starting lineup over the past 14 years, and I'll tell you it looked stronger and more dependable on Opening Day.

The Hard Truth about the Phils' Lineup

2011-03-24T16:31:00.000-07:00

It's something that most Phillies fans have considered lately. Many of us don't speak it, for it would seem petty and obnoxious for fans of a $160 million-payroll team to complain about shortcomings. It's bigger than Chase Utley's injury. It's more extensive than the loss of Jayson Werth. Indeed, there is a looming and growing concern among many of us that the Phils could become an average to slightly-below average offensive club in 2011.

Here's how it happens. Chase Utley misses most, if not all, of 2011 with his nagging knee injury. Wilson Valdez and Luis Castillo offer slightly-below league average offensive production in his absence. Ben Francisco performs as expected in right-field, recording about a .750-.775 OPS with 15 HRs and 65 RBIs this year, a level of production considerably below that of Jayson Werth in 2008, 2009, or 2010. Placido Polanco and his aging and chronically sore elbow provide average production from third base, while Jimmy Rollins continues his three-year decline (I know we don't want to believe it, but it's true). Carlos Ruiz remains respectable at the plate, but sees his fluke 2010 OBP of .400 drop considerably. Shane Victorino hits in the .260 range again with too few walks and 10-15 HRs, while Raul Ibanez's diligent work-ethic cannot guide his 39-year-old body to anything beyond 20 HRs, a .340 OBP, and an .800 OPS ... at best. Last but not least, Ryan Howard continues to hit for power, but also fails to adjust to seeing fewer and fewer fastballs, and suffers a numerical decline by virtue of having less protection in the lineup.

All of the above are not only possible, but actually quite believable. The offensive output detailed would quite possibly rank 4th in the NL East and about 10th in the National League in 2011. With park factors, the figures could be technically be higher ... but these would be illusionary.

I hope it doesn't happen, but as I look at the starting lineup, I see large question marks at RF and 2B ... likely production declines at C, 1B, and SS ... and little optimism for improvement in LF, CF, or 3B.

Despite some rough outings this spring, the rotation should be great. More and more, I'm realizing that it better be.

With Luis Castillo, Phils Add Another Mediocre Middle-Infielder

2011-03-21T07:36:00.000-07:00

With each passing day of Chase Utley’s nagging knee injury, it becomes clearer that the all-star 2nd basemen will not be in the lineup against Brett Myers and the Houston Astros on Opening Day.

The Phillies, already weakened in right-field (with Ben Francisco replacing Jayson Werth), have several options at 2nd base. The first is to give the at-bats to Wilson Valdez, whose performance last year was surely competent (1.7 WAR). The second is to allow Valdez and others, namely youngsters Josh Barfield and Delwyn Young, to share time. Valdez has had an excellent spring for the Phils, leading the team in hits and batting .439. Barfield and Young are hitting .344 and .292, respectively.

The Phils have now added an additional option in the form of Luis Castillo, the veteran second-basemen recently waived by the Mets. Castillo, still owed millions by the Mets in 2011, has signed a minor-league deal and will be cheap for the Phils.

While there are now plenty of able bodies to play the position, it’s important to recognize that none of these players, including Castillo, will come even to close to Chase Utley’s production in 2011. Castillo, in particular, still enjoys the benefits of a once-solid, but always overvalued, reputation. Over the past three seasons, Castillo has an OPS of .681, or an Adjusted OPS+ of 85 (it was only 68 in 2010 ... compared to 79 for Valdez). Defensively, he has not recorded a positive WAR since 2005! Further, his once impressive speed – he led the league in steals twice (2000, 2002) – is no longer a significant factor. He has stolen an average of less than 13 bases over the past three seasons.

I have no major complaints about Castillo’s signing, or the plan to have him split time with Valdez, Barfield, and Young. It’s probably the best the Phils can do given the circumstances. But those hoping for serious relief will be left disappointed, as none of these fellows can provide it.

The only solution for the Phillies at 2nd base is a healthy Chase Utley, and don’t let anyone tell you differently.

Is Mike Schmidt Underrated?

2011-03-18T21:49:00.001-07:00

Today I pose the following question that I was recently asked by a friend: is Mike Schmidt, the greatest Phillie to ever live, underrated by the baseball community?

In 1999, Schmidt was ranked the 28th best baseball player of all-time by the Sporting News. Notably, he was the highest ranked 3rd baseman. In addition, he was named to MLB's All-Century Team. It's fair to say that baseball writers have consistently called Schmidt the game's best at his respective position.

But are they still selling him short? Let's consider the numbers.

Schmidt ranks 39th all-time in Adjusted OPS+ (147), my favorite offensive statistic. But more can be said in support of him. Four steroid users --- Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Manny Ramirez, and Alex Rodriguez --- are ahead of Schmidt. As far as I'm concerned, these achievements are null and void. In addition, Schmidt was a third baseman, a difficult position to play and one that historically has not produced a high number of offensive standouts. In fact, only three (3) non-outfielders/first basemen all-time have a higher Adjusted OPS+ than Mike Schmidt: Rogers Hornsby, Nap Lajoie, and Honus Wagner. Edgar Martinez retired with the same figure as Schmidt (147), but played the majority of his career as a DH. Taking nothing away from their great careers, neither Hornsby, Lajoie, nor Wagner played a day after 1937. Therefore, none ever played in an integrated game. Therefore, an argument can be made that Schmidt is the greatest offensive non-outfielder/first baseman of the past 75 years, if not all-time.

Schmidt also put up amazing counting numbers. He hit 548 home runs in the 70s and 80s, easily the highest figure for those two decades. He led the league in home runs an astounding 8 times --- second only to Babe Ruth. During the two decades in which he played, Schmidt was simply in a different dimension than his peers.

Schmidt, however, was not only an offensive standout. He was an exceptional defensive third-baseman, an extremely important position. He won 10 Gold Gloves and by all accounts, earned them. Only 15 players in MLB history can claim to have won double-digit Gold Gloves. Of the 15, only Willie Mays competes with Schmidt offensively in terms of Adj. OPS+. Ken Griffey Jr. and his 630 HRs indeed surpass Schmidt in terms of counting stats, but he was an outfielder in a hitters' era.

Imagine if Schmidt had played after expansion, or better yet, in Citizens Bank Park! What would his career numbers look like?

There's something about baseball in the 1970s and 80s that seems not to excite baseball historians, writers, etc. It was a time for multi-purpose, astroturfed stadiums. It was the age of 150-lb. slap hitters. Save the A's and Reds in the early 1970s and there were no dynasties. Historically speaking, it was a quieter time for the game than the 50s, 60s, 90s, or 2000s. Perhaps this explains why Schmidt, in my view, remains underrated. Or perhaps it's because he played in Philly, which in those days was not a particularly high-profile baseball town.

Whatever the reason, Schmidt is never discussed among the game's greatest players of all-time. When all things are considered, however, it's difficult for me to rank him anywhere outside the top 7 or 8 all-time for position players or the top 12 to 15 for all players (including pitchers).

It's Official; Cliff Lee is Returning to Philly!

2010-12-13T21:42:00.001-08:00

Multiple sources now confirm that Cliff Lee will sign with the Phillies. The deal is believed to be for around 5 years/$115 million. It also includes an easily attainable option for a 6th year. Lee took substantially less guaranteed money to return to the Phils. Considering that the team abruptly traded him just one year ago, this can only be described as stunning.

I have never seen a turn of events quite like this during the free-agent period.

At the moment, the Phillies have a rotation of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels.

Pinch me.

Report: Phillies May Re-Acquire Lee

2010-12-13T19:22:00.000-08:00

In a truly stunning development, the Phillies appear to be in hot pursuit of left-handed starter Cliff Lee (32). For weeks, speculation has centered on mainly the Yankees and Rangers, but for days a "mystery team" has been making waves. Today, it was confirmed by multiple sources (Jayson Stark, Jon Heyman, etc.) that the Phillies are indeed this team.

Lee was famously traded by Ruben Amaro about a year ago for 3 lousy prospects in a move coordinated with the acquisition of Roy Halladay from the Blue Jays. But Lee reportedly loved his time in Philly and may take a shorter contract to return. If Amaro is able to sign Lee, it will be yet another in a series of bold moves since he became team GM two years ago.

The move could give the Phils the most impressive on-paper rotation in recent MLB memory. In doing so, they would almost certainly need to move Joe Blanton and the $17 million he is owed over the next 2 seasons.

It is too early to get excited about this possibility, and I will not yet assume it is wise (we have no idea what the numbers would be). That said, this is shocking, exciting, and fascinating.

The Carl Crawford Myth

2010-12-06T09:22:00.001-08:00

I can’t take it anymore; the conventional wisdom is driving me crazy. Carl Crawford is overrated! I can say with confidence that whoever signs Crawford in the coming days will make an even bigger mistake than the Nationals did yesterday with Jayson Werth.

Crawford, the so-called “prize” of the 2010 FA class, is actually only a slightly above average hitter. He has a career .781 OPS --- 21 points lower than Marcus Thames. He has never hit 20 homers in a season, nor recorded an OBP north of .364. Yes, he is a prolific base stealer, but is this really something that teams should bank on as he gets into his thirties? (any contract he signs will likely take him to about 35-37). According to Baseball Reference, Crawford’s career progression compares most closely to Roberto Kelly, a sometimes starting outfielder for 8 different clubs (most notably the Yankees) between 1987 and 2000.

Even in his career year of 2010 (which was also his contract year), Crawford posted an .851 OPS…about 20 points lower than Pat Burrell --- who just signed a 1 year, $1 million deal with SF.

Jayson Werth, who also has speed and plays a great rightfield, was clearly the best offensive free agent on the market this year. Werth has posted a higher OPS than Crawford’s career year in each of the last 4 seasons. And somewhere after Werth, Adam Dunn and possibly a few others (Adrian Beltre, V-Mart, Lance Berkman) lies Carl Crawford.

I understand that rate stats aren’t everything, but Crawford represents the other extreme. He is the prototypical “tools” player… the guy who can “hurt you in so many different ways.” But baseball isn’t about hurting the opposition through various methods… it’s about net production. On that count, Carl Crawford is a good player who probably represents the 70th percentile of big league outfielders. Despite this, he’s about to be paid like one of the 3 or 4 best players in all of baseball.

The Nats may have erred by committing big money and years to Jayson Werth, but I applaud them for at least identifying the best outfielder on the market in 2010.

Amaro: Phils May Not Add Right-Handed Bat to Replace Werth

2010-12-05T19:30:00.000-08:00

Ruben Amaro, who apparently offered Jayson Werth "Jason Bay money" (about 4 yrs./$66 million), said today that the right-fielder's departure does not necessarily mean the Phils will seek out an external replacement for him.

Such a statement would not have been surprising three months ago. But since, Domonic Brown has finished the 2010 season with a .210 average and played very poorly in winter ball.

I actually think entering the year with a Ben Francisco/Dom Brown platoon isn't crazy at all. Francisco was an above-average hitter this past season, while Brown's stumbles are being over-analyzed. If either or both turn out to be busts in 2011, then the Phils can always address the issue at the deadline... there's never a shortage of right-handed outfielders. That said, if a bargain becomes available in the off-season (Jermaine Dye for the veteran minimum?), I'd like to see us jump.

I would recommend that the team's primary focus be on adding 1 or 2 solid lefty relievers before Spring Training.

Werth Signs with Nationals

2010-12-05T14:29:00.000-08:00

Jayson Werth, the best Phils' hitter in 2010 and an integral part of the 2008 championship team, is gone tonight.

Werth signed a 7 yr./$126 million deal with the Washington Nationals, the NL East's perennial last place team. With all due respect to Werth, who I continue to think is underrated by many baseball fans, the terms of this contract are a bit ridiculous. A seven-year deal for a 31-year-old player with a history of wrist issues is way too risky. $18 million/year is a fine price for an elite player, but Werth has only been a top outfielder for 2 years. Each of these years came at Citizens Bank Park with a top lineup around him. He now heads to DC, where he'll play in a big park alongside a decent lineup, at best.

The move makes even less sense coming from the Nats. If the Red Sox or Angels threw this $ at Werth, I'd think it was too high, but would understand that these teams are wealthy and may (rightfully) believe that Werth is the piece separating them from contention, or even a championship. But the Nationals are not one piece away. They remain, even with this signing, arguably the worst team in the NL East. They also have very low fan support and therefore little payroll flexibility. Does it really make sense to spend 25%-30% of the team's payroll (for years to come) on 1 player who may lead you to 75 wins? I think not.

I've been to Nationals Park many times. The crowd is uneducated, disinterested, and small...very small. Perhaps Werth was given a false impression of the DC crowd playing for the Phillies. When the Phils come to town, the crowd is loud and large. The reason: Phillies fans are there. I hope (actually, I don't give a s*it) Werth is ready for an adjustment. He has just chosen to leave one of the most exciting baseball cities in the country (with over 100 consecutive sellouts) for one who routinely struggles to sellout it's home-opener.

Thanks for your service Jayson, but I think the best and most exciting days of your career are behind you.

Contreras Returns for 2 Yrs./$5.5m

2010-11-17T21:33:00.000-08:00

The Phillies have decided to bring back Jose Contreras for 2 years at $2.75 million per season. This seems fine with me. Contreras is getting older (he says he's 39... he could be 48), but was great this year. In particular, he had tremendous movement on his splitter throughout the season and into the playoffs. Also, I don't think much better options exist on the market at a lower price. Ideally, he will pair with a rejuvenated Danys Baez (who is signed through 2011 and probably untradable at the moment) to form a nice 6th-7th inning combo. This, combined with a young arm --- Scott Mathieson, Antonio Bastardo and/or Vance Worley --, a new LOOGY (I like Taylor Tankersley or Pedro Feliciano, personally), and Madson/Lidge at the back-end form a solid bullpen.

Regarding one of these points, GM Ruben Amaro recently said that acquiring a lefty reliever is not a priority. He's either lying or crazy (probably the former). The Phils have no established lefty relievers on their roster. Bastardo has talent, but clearly we'll need a bit more depth. I fully expect the position to be addressed by March.

Is Mike Schmidt Underrated?

2010-11-05T19:05:00.001-07:00

Today I pose the following question that I was recently asked by a friend: is Mike Schmidt, the greatest Phillie to ever live, underrated by the baseball community?

In 1999, Schmidt was ranked the 28th best baseball player of all-time by the Sporting News. Notably, he was the highest ranked 3rd baseman. In addition, he was named to MLB's All-Century Team. It's fair to say that baseball writers have consistently called Schmidt the game's best at his respective position.

But are they still selling him short? Let's consider the numbers.

Schmidt ranks 39th all-time in Adjusted OPS+ (147), my favorite offensive statistic. But more can be said in support of him. Four steroid users --- Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Manny Ramirez, and Alex Rodriguez --- are ahead of Schmidt. As far as I'm concerned, these achievements are null and void. In addition, Schmidt was a third baseman, a difficult position to play and one that historically has not produced a high number of offensive standouts. In fact, only three (3) non-outfielders/first basemen all-time have a higher Adjusted OPS+ than Mike Schmidt: Rogers Hornsby, Nap Lajoie, and Honus Wagner. Edgar Martinez retired with the same figure as Schmidt (147), but played the majority of his career as a DH. Taking nothing away from their great careers, neither Hornsby, Lajoie, nor Wagner played a day after 1937. Therefore, none ever played in an integrated game. Therefore, an argument can be made that Schmidt is the greatest offensive non-outfielder/first baseman of the past 75 years, if not all-time.

Schmidt also put up amazing counting numbers. He hit 548 home runs in the 70s and 80s, easily the highest figure for those two decades. He led the league in home runs an astounding 8 times --- second only to Babe Ruth. During the two decades in which he played, Schmidt was simply in a different dimension than his peers.

Schmidt, however, was not only an offensive standout. He was an exceptional defensive third-baseman, an extremely important position. He won 10 Gold Gloves and by all accounts, earned them. Only 15 players in MLB history can claim to have won double-digit Gold Gloves. Of the 15, only Willie Mays competes with Schmidt offensively in terms of Adj. OPS+. Ken Griffey Jr. and his 630 HRs indeed surpass Schmidt in terms of counting stats, but he was an outfielder in a hitters' era.

Imagine if Schmidt had played after expansion, or better yet, in Citizens Bank Park! What would his career numbers look like?

There's something about baseball in the 1970s and 80s that seems not to excite baseball historians, writers, etc. It was a time for multi-purpose, astroturfed stadiums. It was the age of 150-lb. slap hitters. Save the A's and Reds in the early 1970s and there were no dynasties. Historically speaking, it was a quieter time for the game than the 50s, 60s, 90s, or 2000s. Perhaps this explains why Schmidt, in my view, remains underrated. Or perhaps it's because he played in the Philly, which in those days was not a particularly high-profile baseball town.

Whatever the reason, Schmidt is never discussed among the game's greatest players of all-time. When all things are considered, however, it's difficult for me to rank him anywhere outside the top 7 or 8 all-time for position players or the top 12 to 15 for all players (including pitchers). Am I crazy?

Phils Increase Ticket Prices for 2011

2010-11-05T14:12:00.000-07:00

The Phillies today announced an increase in ticket prices; hikes will range from $2 to $5 per seat throughout the park in 2011.

I suppose this was to be expected. After all, the team set a home attendance record of 3,647,249 fans and will enter the 2011 season with a streak of 123 consecutive sellouts. The average attendance in 2010 was 45,028/game.

According to Team Marketing Report, the Phils' average ticket price in 2010 was $32,99, good for 5th in MLB. It is unclear whether the new increases will leap the Phils into a higher slot in 2011.

I'll be completely honest; this doesn't bother me. As a "long distance" fan who attends 2-3 home games per season, I'm actually more pleased that the team will be able to increase it's revenue (and hopefully, payroll) in 2011.

From a less selfish perspective, I also think it's defensible. The Phils play in a Top 5 market, in a Top 5-10 stadium, and are one of the best 5 teams in baseball. Therefore, they have every right (in my view) to charge Top 5 prices.

Phillies Reportedly Considering Aaron Rowand

2010-11-04T19:02:00.000-07:00

Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated reported today that the Phils would consider re-acquiring Aaron Rowand from the World Champion San Francisco Giants (wow, that's weird to write) if they are unable to sign Jayson Werth.

Rowand, a fan favorite while with the Phils (2006-07), is due $12 million next season. According to the report, the Giants would need to pick-up part of Rowand's salary to make the move happen. The Giants are likely to go with Andres Torres in center-field after Rowand's poor season, so shedding any of his salary would be beneficial to them.

Having not seen any proposed offer, or the amount of $ the Giants would pick-up, this seems like a mistake to me. Rowand, a free-swinging strikeout (74 Ks in 330 ABs in 2010) threat, is clearly on the offensive decline. He posted an OPS of .659 in 2010, a deplorable figure for a starting outfielder. He's also lost a step in the outfield. To me, there are much better options. I would consider Marcus Thames, who is likely to leave the Yankees. Magglio Ordonez, who Heyman also said is on the Phils' radar, is also intriguing at the right price.

I just hope that sentimentality and visions of Rowand crashing into the fence don't sway the Phils. Losing Jayson Werth is serious, and a legitimate right-handed bat is needed to replace him (at least on a platoon basis).

Giants-Rangers, Game 1 Tonight

2010-10-27T14:04:00.000-07:00

I've heard a lot of chatter about how this World Series isn't interesting and will suffer from lower-than-usual ratings. On the latter point, I agree. The San Francisco and Dallas markets are large, but they aren't as expansive as say, New York and Philadelphia. On the former point, however, I strongly disagree. This World Series is a battle between two moderately-financed clubs enjoying dividends from good scouting, strong coaching, and shrewd trades. Much as I wish this series included the Phils, it could be good for baseball.

We've been hearing about the strong Rangers' farm-system for some time, and now we're seeing it develop. Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis, and Tommy Hunter are young, homegrown guys that made the Rangers a much better club. Enter the Josh Hamilton trade, the cheap Nelson Cruz pickup, and of course, the Cliff Lee deadline move, and you have a contending team. Give John Daniels, their 33-year-old GM, a lot of credit.

The Giants, for many years, did quite a bit wrong. They declared a youth movement in the shadow of Barry Bonds, but went ahead and signed Edgar Renteria, Aaron Roward, and Barry Zito to some of the worst contracts in MLB. But since those moves, the front office deserves credit. During the course of the season, it has built at least a league average lineup by calling up Buster Posey, signing a seemingly-washed up Pat Burrell, claiming Cody Ross off waivers, and replacing Rowand with Andres Torres in center. Combine this with the best pitching staff in baseball --- almost all home grown by the way --- and you have a 92-win team.

In this interesting match-up of two teams never to win the World Series (at least in their current cities), I am rooting for the Rangers. I typically root for the NL team if it isn't the Phillies, but a few factors have altered my calculus:

1. I have a man-crush on Cliff Lee. Recently, Lee was criticized for saying he "kind of" enjoyed watching the Phillies lose the NLCS because they got rid of him. I don't find this offensive at all. Lee was treated poorly after pitching his lights out in last year's playoffs, and he ought not to like our franchise too much. The feelings, however, are not mutual. I would love to see him win.

2. Tim Lincecum is a d-bag. And, yes, so is Pat Burrell. And so is Jonathan "I can't hit water when I fall out of a f&%kin boat" Sanchez.

3. I love the Rangers line-up. And in the end, I'll take mashers over pitchers.

4. The Giants just beat us! Yeah, I'll admit it. I'm bitter. I watched them celebrate at CBP (on TV, at least). I'd like to see them dejected.

Anyways, that's my take. Enjoy the Series --- it should be a good one.

Report: Werth Wants 6 Years, $108 Million

2010-10-26T14:41:00.000-07:00

It was reported earlier by a Daily News writer that Jayson Werth appears to be seeking $18 million/year for 6 years. While this cannot be verified, it isn't too surprising of an ask for a Scott Boras client.

Yesterday, Ruben Amaro said that Werth had "a good year," but wasn't as good as he had been in the past. With all due respect, I don't think the numbers back that statement up --- Werth had a career-high OPS and played a stellar right-field. Nevertheless, it's the right posture for Ruben to take. If I were him, I'd play the RISP card as much as possible.

All signs indicate that Werth is going to sign with the highest-bidder. Generally, you don't hire Scott Boras to sign for a hometown discount. Also, when asked about the situation yesterday, Werth reminded us all that baseball "is a business." The best he could do for the Phils, the team that gave him his shot, was to say that they're "on the list."

If the highest bidder turns out to offer $108 million over 6 years, then I hope it isn't the Phillies. I love Jayson Werth, but he isn't worth it. It's too long of a deal for a 31-year-old and frankly, it's too much money. I'd rather take my chances with Dom Brown, Ben Francisco, and a cheap, right-handed bat (I still like Marcus Thames) that we can sign this winter.

Update: Also, the Phils today declined their $4.5 million option on J.C. Romero, instead paying him a $250,000 buyout. I'd be in favor of bringing Romero back at a reduced rate if he'd accept. I don't believe, however, that he is suited to be our best left-handed option in the bullpen.

The Jayson Werth Situation, Part One

2010-10-25T05:30:00.000-07:00

I imagine that the Jayson Werth situation is something that’ll get a lot of attention over the next month or so. So lets get our discussion started on this site.

Several reports over the past few days have noted that many Phillies players expect Jayson Werth to sign elsewhere. This is not terribly surprising; the consensus opinion has figured as such for quite some time. The Phils have about $140 million committed to less than 20 players in 2011, and it’s unlikely that they’ll wish to commit another $15-$20 million/year to Werth (who, much like their other commitments, is on the wrong side of 30).

I understand this, though it’s not going to be pretty. Make no mistake, Werth was the best offensive player on the Phils this season. Yes, he hit below .200 with RISP, and that’s a problem. But in my view, that’s mostly random and could improve from year to year --- for his career, Werth has an .816 OPS (on-base plus slugging %) mark with RISP, which is pretty good.

Werth had the 6th highest OPS in the NL this year, and was the only Phil over .900. He continued to play a strong outfield and run the bases well. Finally, he’s basically the only right-handed power source in a lineup full of lefties. Anyone who saw the Giants use Javier Lopez, Jeremy Affeldt, and Madison Baumgartner to chew the Phils’ offense apart this past week should be weary of swapping Werth for Domonic Brown, yet another lefthander.

Don’t get me wrong. I like Dom Brown and I think the Phils need to start adding youth (and some cheapness) to their lineup. I just think they need to make another move in the meantime. Given his performance this year, I don’t think it’s responsible to pencil Raul Ibanez into left-field in 2011. He’ll be difficult to trade, but I’d try. I’d even be willing to eat $3-$4 million of his $11.5 million salary. And even if they can’t move him, I would like to see them add a right-handed bat to take some ABs from Raul in left. It doesn’t need to be a long-term, expensive bat, but just somebody who can produce against left-handed pitching. A quick glance at the upcoming free agent list indicates that options are limited, though there are some possibilities. Depending on what the Yankees do, Marcus Thames might be a fit. You know who else is a free-agent left-fielder who can still hit? --- that’s right, Pat Burrell. I don’t see that happening. Burrell is a very serious liability in the field and has a deeply schizophrenic bat --- something we certainly don’t need.

Given that Brown is no guarantee in right, and Ben Francisco has not upped his game to earn more time, I think it’s essential that we add depth to the corner-outfield positions.

More generally, however, I wish this wasn’t necessary. Had the Phils not 1) prematurely picked up J-Roll’s 2011 option, 2) signed Joe Blanton for 3 years/$24 million, and 3) given Ryan Howard one of the worst contracts in baseball, they’d have a lot more payroll flexibility and signing Werth would be very doable.

In my view, it makes much more sense to keep Werth for the long haul than Howard. First, Werth is a better VORP player, which is to say that the difference between him and an average right-fielder is greater (more positive) than the difference between Howard and an average first-basemen. Also, he’s a much better defensive player, a better and faster base-runner, and finally, he’s leaner and likely to age much better than Howard.

Nevertheless, the Phils can’t go back and undo past moves. Given their current situation, I would like to see a move for a relatively cheap right-handed bat in left-field. If they are able to trade Ibanez, so much the better.

Source: Photo from AFP

A (Sometimes Cruel) Game of Inches

2010-10-23T22:24:00.000-07:00

Congrats to the San Francisco Giants, who have won the 2010 NL Pennant. They’re a good team with incredible pitching and in my view, a great manager.

Much will be made of the Phils’ inept play in key moments of this series. They were deplorable with runners in scoring position. They made serious mistakes in the field. And at times, they weren’t managed all that well. They certainly did not earn the National League pennant.

All of these items will, justifiably, receive significant attention from writers and fans everywhere. In a few days, I’ll be right there with them. But tonight, allow me to take a different angle. Baseball, like any sport, is truly a game of inches. This was never more evident than in Game 6 on Saturday night. In the bottom of the 1st inning, Jayson Werth just missed a homerun that would have given the Phils a 4-0 lead. In the bottom of the 5th, Ryan Howard doubled to the gap in left-center, but the ball careened directly to Giants center-fielder Andres Torres. This forced Jimmy Rollins to stop at 3rd base, where he was stranded. In the top of the 8th, Juan Uribe homered to right field on a ball that landed about a foot over the wall. But in the bottom of the 8th, when the Phils had 2 runners on base with one out, Carlos Ruiz hit a rope directly at Aubrey Huff, forcing a double-play.

This is not an exhaustive list. And of course, many such plays affect both teams on any given night. But on this night, and in this series in general, it sure felt as though these bounces more times than not went against the Phils.

This is baseball. This happens in a short playoff series when the N (number of events) is not large enough to ensure than these bounces cancel one another out --- or even come close to doing so.

If you dominate a team, then these bounces are irrelevant. Dominant strikeout pitchers and huge innings at the plate can make this happen.

But in the absence of dominance, you must depend on some help from the stochastic world. And sometimes, in baseball, luck just doesn’t go your way and it makes a difference. Go back and watch the tapes of the 2008 playoffs and you’ll see a lot of bounces going the Phils’ way. Remember Game 3 of the World Series? We won on a hit that went 15 feet.

It’s fascinating how much attention goes into every transaction and play over the course of a baseball season (and offseason). When it comes to making the postseason, the long season usually ensures that the best teams are part of the final 8. But in terms of winning a championship, you need talent, timeliness, and yes, luck. In the end, all of the maneuvering and speculating about every player and every play comes down to a handful of short series at the end of the year. Each team participating in these series --- whether it’s the LDS, LCS, or the World Series --- is a good one. Therefore, anything can happen. Ask the Braves, who won 14 consecutive division titles from 1991-2005 and only came away with 1 World Series championship. On the flip side, ask the Marlins, who won 2 championships in the same time frame despite making the playoffs only twice.

It hurts that the Phils had the best record in baseball this year --- for the first time in franchise history --- but failed to advance, let alone win, the World Series. But we should recall that the 2008 team was 92-70, good for just the 5th best record in baseball. The 2009 club won 93 games, several less than the Dodgers, whom them defeated in the NLCS. This is the first time since 1976-78 that the Phils have been on the wrong side of this cruel reality. But we should remember that as bad as it hurts to lose when you feel as though you should win, it’s even more exhilarating to win when you’re supposed to lose.

The Phils built a strong team this year and made the playoffs for the 4th consecutive year. In a short series against the Giants, however, they came up small in some big spots and didn’t get the bounces they needed. This is the nature of baseball…

I’ll need a few weeks to shake this loss off; it sure was a tough one. But soon I’ll be ready to again agonize this franchise’s every move --- every signing, every trade, every top draft pick, every game --- with the hopes that we can make the playoffs again in 2011. I will do this even as I wholly recognize that winning it all, in spite of everyone’s efforts, will come down to a handful of games in October...games that will be decided on talent, timeliness, and yes, some luck.

In a way, it’s truly absurd.

But more so, it’s quite gripping.

I, for one, can’t wait. Go Phils!

Tomorrow Begins Today for Phils

2010-10-23T07:45:00.000-07:00

To quote from the ill-fated 2008 campaign of John Edwards, tomorrow indeed begins today for the Phils. Two wins and we return to the World Series for a 3rd straight year (where Cliff Lee, amazingly enough, is waiting). For now, all attention must be on tonight's match-up. Roy Oswalt will need to be on his game. He'll need those extra couple MPH on his fastball that the crowd should help him get. He'll need to hit the corners and stay away from BBs.

The Phils offense will face Jonathan Sanchez, a tough lefty. The key, I believe, is Ryan Howard, who did OK with him in Game 2. I think Howard needs to be aggressive early in the count. When he gets down 2 strikes to guys like this, he inevitably strikes out on an off-speed pitch. I say come to the plate ready to swing. And he absolutely needs to go the other way, something he did effectively last time he faced Sanchez.

Bill Conlin wrote a piece today in the Daily News arguing that Howard should be benched tonight for Mike Sweeney. I do not agree. Howard hasn't been a run producer this postseason, but given his success against Sanchez in Game 2, I think that'd be an extreme move. He is still a guy who can change a game with one big swing. We may need that tonight and/or tomorrow.

Ideally, the crowd will rattle Sanchez early, forcing him to give up a few runs and raise his pitch count. If the Phils can get a lead and force him out of the game early, they can tire the Giants bullpen before a decisive Game 7...

For all of those attending the game, follow the advice of Jimmy Rollins: “Be out there, let ‘em have it. LET THEM HAVE IT. All of ‘em. For real."

Halladay, Bullpen Force Game 6

2010-10-22T05:42:00.001-07:00

It was clear that Roy Halladay didn't have his best stuff yesterday. He had a lot of trouble getting ahead in counts, and even more trouble putting hitters away. To top it off, he wasn't getting much love from home-plate umpire Jeff Nelson. Nevertheless, he stayed out of big innings and got outs when he needed them. He was at times helped, and at others hurt, by an inconsistent Phillies defense. After the game, we learned that Doc was pitching with a mild groin pull. Manuel asked if wanted to leave the game, but Halladay refused. Great story. Hopefully, though, Doc is healthy and ready to go should we need him again --- including, perhaps, in Game 7 out of the bullpen.

Some other interesting notes from the game:

1. The bullpen looked great, even better than Halladay. Ryan Madson, in particular, was having huge success with his change-up.
2. Nice to see Jimmy steal two bases on that hamstring.
3. The blown call by Nelson on Halladay's bunt is one of the worst calls I've ever seen in the post-season (and that is saying something). He was literally standing in front of the plate and missed the fair/foul call.
4. The Phils left two runners on 3rd with less than two outs. Very frustrating and not acceptable. One was a Howard strikeout. The other, though, was tough luck on a Ross Gload line-drive hit to Aubrey Huff.
5. Pat Burrell and Tim Lincecum reinforced their douchebag images. Burrell started screaming at Halladay when it was clear Doc was staring down Jeff Nelson after the 1st inning. And Lincecum yelled "You stay there" to Rollins after he stole 2nd and 3rd on him, but was stranded by the Phils. How about looking back the runner, Tim? How does it feel to give up two steals to a guy with a bad hammy on the wrong side of 30? Also, newsflash, Ross Gload smoked the hanger you left in the middle of the plate. If not for Huff holding Ruiz on, it's a 5-2 game.

Go Phils!

Don't Let Us Win Tonight

2010-10-21T06:25:00.000-07:00

I've decided to be that guy; the one who keeps the faith. Echoing Kevin Millar before Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS, my message to the Giants is clear: Don't let us win tonight.

It's been a tough series for us. Bad managing. Bad hitting with RISP. Less-than-dominant starting pitching. Meanwhile, the Giants are hot and hungry. They have a patchwork team with a lot of talent (underrated actually), plenty of experience, and probably the best 1-2-3-4 rotation in baseball --- yeah, I said it. I thought this series would be tough and never really understood why the Giants were being presented as a cakewalk.

But with all of that said, if we can win tonight, we can do it. We'd have Games 6 and 7 in Philly with our backs against the wall. The crowd will be loud, distractive, supporting, etc. We'll have Oswalt and Hamels on the hill. We'll have stopped the momentum by beating the Giants in San Francisco. We won't have to face Lincecum again. We'll be the 2-time defending NL champions on our own turf, daring the opposition to take the crown from us.

I waited too long to see the Phillies play competitive baseball. I became a fan in 1990 and saw 2 winning seasons in my first 13. Not 2 playoff seasons. Two winning seasons. It was rough caring so much about a team that drew 12,000 fans to an astroturf-laden dump of a stadium. It was hard being out of the race by June 1. It was tough being that told that Chad Ogea was an acceptable #2 starter, or that Rex Hudler was our big off-season acquisition.

My point is simple. It isn't hard for me to stay upbeat. I know how bad things can get for a baseball fan --- and this ain't it. So to all of you who have forgotten or simply didn't care enough when the going was tough, I'm pulling rank. I'm tired of the head-hanging and the bitching. To our fans, keep the faith. To the team, relax and stay poised like experienced champions should. To the Giants, don't let us win tonight.

In the best and worst of times, Go Phillies!

Vindicated (Game 4 in Progress)

2010-10-20T18:47:00.000-07:00

Well, with 2 outs in the bottom of the 5th, Charlie Manuel just pulled Joe Blanton. Not surprisingly, Blanton pitched like Joe Blanton tonight, giving up at least three runs in less than 5 innings. After finally having a strong offensive inning, the outcome of this game is very much in doubt. The Phils will need 4 solid innings from the bullpen. It sure would've been nice to have Doc on the mound right now. It sure would've been nice, Charlie.

Roy Halladay Should Start Game 4

2010-10-19T16:07:00.000-07:00

It looks like Charlie Manuel has decided to go with Joe Blanton tomorrow in Game 4. It may very well be the right call, but I don't think I'd make it. Given the way the Phils offense is performing, I expect very little from it tomorrow against a tough lefty, Madison Baumgartner. Joe Blanton (4.72 ERA) is a slightly below-average major league starter who is almost never dominant. This is what happens when you have average velocity, slightly above-average location, and below-average movement. The Phillies can't afford a run-of-the-mill barely-quality start tomorrow (which is a good day for Joe Blanton). They need a big, big start. They paid Roy Halladay to be the ace, they're built to win now, and he needs to be on the hill to save the season. A loss tomorrow would pit the Phils against Tim Lincecum in Game 5 (at home) in an elimination game. This scenario is worth taking a gamble to avoid.

I've heard the argument that starting Halladay tomorrow would force Oswalt and Hamels to pitch on 3 days rest as well. So what. Oswalt has done it before with success and Hamels hardly threw out his arm today (6 IP). It's the postseason, they're all veterans, and they can handle it.

If the season is to end at the hands of the Giants, then let it be because they beat the best we have. Don't let this run stop prematurely because the Giants were able to beat Joe Blanton, who by the way, hasn't pitched in 3 weeks.

Cliff Lee, Dominant Again

2010-10-18T20:43:00.000-07:00

My position on Cliff Lee's departure from the Phillies is well known and need not be rehashed tonight. I just wanted to take a minute and comment on yet another amazing Lee start for the Rangers. To be clear, Lee dominated the Yankees tonight in a way that I've never seen this lineup dominated. Over 8 innings, he gave up only 2 hits, a seeing-eye single to Brett Gardner and a looper to Jorge Posada. He struck out 13 Yanks and walked only one. During the post-season, he has now recorded 34 strikeouts and only 1 walk. Facing the Rays and Yanks, long thought to be the two best clubs in baseball this year (until the Phils September surge), that's simply remarkable.

Ata-boy, Cliff.

Oswalt the Key to Game 2 Win

2010-10-18T05:57:00.000-07:00

I had the pleasure of attending last night's game. Yes, I drove the long distance. The key to the game was clearly the man on the mound, Roy Oswalt. Unlike his sub-par performance against the Reds last week, Oswalt had command of his pitches (esp. his fastball). Other than a mistake to Cody Ross, who now has 3 HRs in this series, he really gave the Giants little to hit. Oswalt also helped himself at the plate, singling and scoring (despite running through a stop sign!) in the 7th. And in the 8th inning when Charlie Manuel came out for the ball, Roy convinced him he could get one more out, which he did.

Other encouraging signs were evident. Jimmy Rollins broke the game open with a 3-run double, his biggest hit in a long time (Jonathan Broxton?). Further, Ryan Howard handled Jonathan Sanchez (surprisingly) well, doubling and walking. Both bats will be needed in San Francisco this week.

Looking ahead, hopefully Cole Hamels can guide the Phils to victory in Game 3 against Matt Cain, but it won't be easy. Hamels has struggled in San Francisco in his career, going 2-1 with a 6.12 ERA in four starts at the 11-year-old ballpark. He's allowed at least four runs in each of his starts.

Should the Phils lose Game 3, they may be left with a tough decision regarding Game 4. Do they start Joe Blanton down 2-1, or go with Doc Halladay on short rest? Tough call. I think they'd go with Blanton on a short leash, but I'm not yet sure I agree. Thoughts?