The Low-Down

Counterattacks Add To Ukraine Gains In Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia

2026-11-09T11:03:40.262-05:00

Ukrainian forces operating south of the Fortress Belt are counterattacking again, liberating more territory in three crucial oblasts, as Russian units continue to struggle to recover from the summer and fall Ukrainian gains. JL

Ryder Blackthorn reports in Frontline Signal:

Ukrainian forces have been gradually recovering territory in the Oleksandrivka direction, near the borders of Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Ukraine’s counterattacks around Oleksandrivka were reportedly forcing Russia to commit naval infantry and tank units to defend the wider sector. Russian infantry operating in small groups, sometimes only two or three men, attempting to move through Ukrainian positions or remain hidden in wooded areas and abandoned buildings. Reconnaissance drones are used to locate these groups
Russian troops are still holding part of Novomykolaivka, but the ground around them is changing. Ukrainian counterattacks have reportedly moved close enough to threaten the route used to supply those positions, according to Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets.
In his October 28 assessment, Mashovets described Ukrainian advances of approximately 2.5–2.7 kilometres south and west of the village. Russian troops continue defending parts of the settlement and nearby wooded areas, while Ukrainian forces have been gradually improving their positions.
Earlier this week, we covered how Ukraine’s counterattacks around Oleksandrivka were reportedly forcing Russia to commit naval infantry and tank units to defend the wider sector. The latest reporting gives us a closer look at the ground fighting and the positions Russian troops are trying to hold.
Ukrainian Forces Advance Around Novomykolaivka
Ukrainian forces have been gradually recovering territory in the Oleksandrivka direction, near the borders of Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
According to Mashovets, Ukrainian troops were holding positions around Kalynivske, Berezove, Zaporizke, and northwestern Novomykolaivka after repelling earlier Russian counterattacks.
Russian infantry continued holding approximately half of Novomykolaivka, along with positions in wooded terrain near the road connecting the village to Berezove.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed that Mashovets’ account indicated Ukrainian forces had previously cleared Zaporizke and Kalynivske and advanced into central Novomykolaivka.
These gains developed over time rather than during a single assault on October 28. Some were reported earlier, and the precise boundaries of Ukrainian control have not been independently established.
The fighting has left both armies holding positions around villages, roads, and wooded areas. Ukrainian troops have recovered ground, but Russian infantry remain in parts of the territory they are trying to clear.
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Source: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 28, 2026 | Critical Threats
A Narrow Russian Supply Corridor
One of the more important details in Mashovets’ latest assessment concerns a supply route running from Obratne, southeast of Novomykolaivka, toward the Russian-held part of the village.
According to his account, the corridor is no more than approximately three kilometres wide. Ukrainian forces have reportedly advanced far enough around the area to strike it from the flanks using drones and infantry weapons.
Russian troops defending Novomykolaivka still need ammunition, equipment, food, and reinforcements. Moving those supplies through a narrow corridor exposed to enemy fire makes their job considerably more difficult.
Mashovets did not report that Ukrainian forces had completely severed the route or surrounded the remaining Russian positions. His account describes a vulnerable supply corridor, not a confirmed encirclement.
Russia Has Stabilized Much of the Front
Ukraine’s advances around Novomykolaivka are taking place against Russian defenses that have become harder to push back.
Mashovets reported that Russia’s 36th Combined Arms Army received reinforcements that helped stabilize much of the Oleksandrivka sector during September and October. Russian forces prevented a wider Ukrainian advance south of the Huliaipole–Velyka Novosilka road while continuing counterattacks around Berezove and Kalynivske.
Ukrainian troops have spent much of this period consolidating positions recovered during earlier operations. Russian infantry groups have also attempted to infiltrate Ukrainian lines, forcing Ukrainian forces to clear remaining positions behind their advances.
Fighting continues farther south around the Yanchur River, where Ukrainian troops have been securing positions near the river while Russian forces defend the surrounding terrain.
Mashovets described a Russian-held protrusion near Novohryhorivka that could threaten the flanks of Ukrainian troops attempting to advance farther south. Russian forces also maintain positions around nearby settlements and wooded areas.
Those positions complicate any attempt to continue advancing toward the river and beyond it.
What Ukrainian Soldiers Are Seeing on the Ground
Recent interviews with Ukrainian soldiers offer another perspective on the fighting around Oleksandrivka.
On October 28, Ukrainian public broadcaster Suspilne published accounts from personnel serving with the 141st and 23rd Mechanized Brigades and the 79th Air Assault Brigade.
The soldiers described Russian infantry operating in small groups, sometimes only two or three men, attempting to move through Ukrainian positions or remain hidden in wooded areas and abandoned buildings.
Reconnaissance drones are used to locate these groups, while artillery, attack drones, and guided aerial bombs continue threatening Ukrainian positions.
Roman Pysarenko, head of communications for the 79th Air Assault Brigade, said Russian troops were still trying to recover ground lost during Ukrainian counterattacks. He explained that Russian forces had largely stopped using mechanized assaults in his brigade’s sector because Ukrainian reconnaissance could detect armored vehicles before they reached Ukrainian positions.
The worsening autumn weather has added another problem for troops on both sides. Rain and mud make it harder to move vehicles and supplies, while fog can provide cover for infantry attempting to approach positions unnoticed.
Ukrainian units have increasingly turned to ground robotic systems to help maintain their logistics.
Serhii, a serviceman with the 141st Mechanized Brigade who uses the callsign Yaroma, told Suspilne that his brigade’s ground robots had transported more than 200 tonnes of cargo during a month of operations. These systems are also being used to evacuate wounded troops from dangerous areas.
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Ukrainian soldiers from the 93rd Brigade use robot for a logistic purpose. | Credit: Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu via Getty Images
The interviews describe conditions across the wider Oleksandrivka sector rather than the specific positions around Novomykolaivka. They provide a clearer picture of the difficulties soldiers face moving supplies and maintaining positions under constant drone surveillance.
Russia’s Offensive Is Still Continuing
Ukraine’s counterattacks have not stopped Russian offensive operations across southern Ukraine.
According to Ukraine’s General Staff, Russian troops launched 18 attacks in the Huliaipole direction on October 29, attempting to advance toward Uspishne, Ternuvate, Yehorivka, Hirke, and Charivne.
The General Staff recorded no Russian assault operations in the Oleksandrivka direction during the same reporting period. Those figures do not rule out other fighting or Ukrainian counterattacks.
In its October 29 assessment, ISW reported that Russian forces continued limited offensive operations near Oleksandrivka and around Huliaipole during October 28–29 without making an assessed territorial advance in either sector.
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141 Mechanized Brigade | Credit: 141st Separate Mechanized Brigade / Facebook
Can Russia Hold Its Positions Around Novomykolaivka?
Russian reinforcements have helped stabilize much of the Oleksandrivka front, preventing Ukrainian forces from turning their local advances into a wider breakthrough.
Around Novomykolaivka, however, Ukrainian troops have reportedly recovered enough ground to put additional pressure on Russian positions.
Russia still holds part of the village. Whether its troops can continue maintaining those positions as Ukrainian forces press against the surrounding terrain will help determine what happens next.

Changes In Ukraine's Vivaldi Tactics, Command Paralyzed Russian Forces

2026-11-09T10:42:57.352-05:00

Corporate executives will recognize the change that Ukrainian forces now credit with a major share of Operation Vivaldi's success.

In a technologically driven era, pushing information and decision making down to the commanders on the ground gave them the adaptability necessary to identify Russian vulnerabilities and then strike them, effectively paralyzing the Russian forces. JL

Carlotta Gall and Kamila Hrabchuk report in the New York Times:

Ukrainian troops had been losing ground to the far more numerous Russian Army for the best part of two years. But the wider use of drones and remote-controlled vehicles, and changes in the command structure and culture within parts of the army, enabled Ukraine to shift gears. Decision making was given to commanders on the ground rather than being relayed from a command post, while the senior commanders focused on the broader operational level to disrupt the Russian command. When Russian reinforcements were called in, Ukrainian drones struck them as they dismounted from vehicles miles before they could reach the front line The Russians were effectively paralyzed. The tactics were so successful that Ukraine's troops wiped out Russia’s 144th Motor Rifle Division in the fighting and reversed Russia’s gains of a whole year.

A steady hum of activity filled the underground bunker in eastern Ukraine. Soldiers called across one another as they monitored banks of screens showing livestream video feeds from the battlefield one morning last month.
“Guys, let’s fight the war first and deal with our stuff later,” the commander, Yuriy Horobets, shouted, quieting the room. “Our FPV is coming in now,” he said, pointing out a tiny, pale object, a first-person-view drone, moving across the screen of a reconnaissance feed. The drone, a remotely piloted quadcopter, was homing in to attack.
His brigade, the 66th Mechanized Brigade, had multiple drones in the sky that day to strike Russian positions as its troops prepared to storm a tree line. The assault was at the tail end of a monthslong operation that recaptured a sizable portion of eastern territory.
That operation, called Vivaldi, thwarted Russian efforts this year to encircle the last cities of Donetsk Province, the prize that Moscow insists it wants to end the war. After months of operational silence, the Ukrainian brigades involved have begun to reveal details of how they managed to turn a losing defensive fight against Russian forces into a successful offensive along parts of the front line. They allowed a team of New York Times reporters to embed with them for two weeks and see their work firsthand.
Ukrainian troops had been losing ground to the far more numerous Russian Army for the best part of two years. But the wider use of drones and remote-controlled vehicles, and changes in the command structure and culture within parts of the army, enabled Ukraine to shift gears. Brig. Gen. Andriy Biletsky, the overall commander of the operation, claimed that the tactics were so successful that his troops had wiped out Russia’s 144th Motor Rifle Division in the fighting and reversed Russia’s gains of a whole year.
“What we are seeing now looks more like desperate attempts to establish a defensive line — an agony, rather than organized, systematic military operations,” he told journalists in a briefing in October. Alongside several of his commanders, he had gathered members of the news media in an underground bunker to announce the end of Operation Vivaldi, the main thrust of which he said began in May, and to sum up its results.
In October, for the second consecutive month, Ukraine gained more territory than Russia, and Russian forces suffered their highest monthly casualty toll — more than 54,000 killed or seriously wounded — of the war, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

Military analysts and Russian military bloggers have confirmed Ukrainian gains, as Russian forces lost a key salient north of the city of Lyman and an equal amount of territory on the Zaporizhzhia front line in southern Ukraine.
The 66th brigade was essential to that success. Its challenges were typical of many Ukrainian military formations, like struggling with old equipment and shortages of personnel and resources. Many of its infantry soldiers are in their 40s or 50s, like Mr. Horobets, 45, a battalion commander.
Last year, the brigade, vastly outnumbered by Russian forces opposing them, was steadily losing ground, Mr. Horobets said. Their supply routes were under fire, preventing them from bringing in ammunition and evacuating the wounded. Yet it was from that maelstrom, fed up with being destroyed by Russian firepower, that a few battalion commanders said they took things into their own hands. They seized critical Russian positions on high ground above a village from which Russian troops were directing the strikes against them.

Once they controlled the heights and knocked out Russian communications, they found they had an advantage. The Russian soldiers in the village did not know what had happened and could not replace equipment because the Ukrainian forces were bringing down the Russian supply drones and preventing vehicles getting through on the roads, several commanders involved in the operation said.

“At that point, we had superiority over the enemy in terms of both strike drones and aerial reconnaissance,” said Nazar Kinash, 25, the acting commander of a mechanized battalion. The Russians “had effectively been blinded,” he said.

The 66th brigade began infiltrating soldiers into the village and setting up ambushes, Mr. Horobets said. Within a month, they had taken the village, and six weeks later, they seized another. “For now, you see silence,” Mr. Horobets said as he gestured at a bank of video screens in his underground command post. “A month ago, there was a terrible war here because the enemy was trying to regain its positions and counterattack,” he said. “But, for now, they are exhausted.” The operation is the first sign of a new direction under General Biletsky, who took command of the Third Army Corps in summer 2025, bringing a unity of command and coordination among six brigades along their part of the front line, several battalion commanders said.

Decision making was given to commanders on the ground rather than being relayed from a command post, while the senior commanders focused on the broader operational level to disrupt the Russian command, they said.

Working in sync for the first time with the units around them, the commanders of the 66th brigade said they had cracked the problem of Russian infiltration, sealing the gaps between units where Russian soldiers had been slipping through to set up positions behind Ukrainian lines. Drone warfare has transformed the front line in Ukraine into a miles-wide kill zone, where vehicles are so easily targeted that soldiers mostly move on foot in small groups. The Russian Army has largely abandoned full-frontal armored assaults in favor of a stealthy advance by inserting foot soldiers.

For months, the 66th brigade hunted down and destroyed every Russian position it could find, including single soldiers holed up in dens behind Ukrainian lines, infantry in trenches and drone pilots in bunkers, Mr. Horobets said.

“Overall, it comes down to coordination,” he said. He showed two areas of scrubby woodland outlined in red on a video screen. Russian soldiers were still dug in there and were his target for the afternoon, he said.

“We will destroy the antennas first, then destroy the generators,” he said. “It will turn out that we destroy the pilots, too.” As the Ukrainians began advancing, the value of their middle-range drone strikes became clear. The Third Army Corps was striking up to 50 Russian vehicles a day, sometimes as deep as 100 miles behind Russian lines, General Biletsky said.

“It became normal for the enemy to unload 40 to 50 kilometers from the front line and then continue on foot,” he said. Sometimes a soldier would carry a single artillery shell 20 miles, he said. “Their logistics have effectively been paralyzed.”

Russian soldiers were running short of fuel, ammunition and food. Some began holding up cardboard signs outside their positions, saying they were hungry and thirsty, several commanders said.

Critically, when Russian reinforcements were called in, Ukrainian drones struck them as they dismounted from vehicles miles before they could reach the front line, Mr. Horobets said.

The wider use of battlefield robots to beat Russia’s superiority in numbers has steadily grown. A 27-year-old former Ukrainian assault trooper said he had been put in charge of building up a special battalion of remote-controlled strike vehicles since last fall. He asked to be identified by only his call sign, Makar, for security reasons and according to protocol. The Ukrainians cannot outnumber the Russians in terms of personnel, he said in an interview. “But we can outperform them technologically,” he said, “in terms of quality and scale, if we consistently stay several steps ahead of them.”

By now, ground robots are vital. In several underground command posts our team visited, Ukrainian soldiers watched livestream videos of tracks and undergrowth as the vehicles trundled through the kill zone carrying cargo. Sometimes they brought out the bodies of dead soldiers. Many of the vehicles break down or get attacked by Russian drones, and their cameras showed the wrecks of other vehicles.

But many of them get through. General Biletsky said his brigades were delivering three times as much cargo to their soldiers on the front line as other brigades that recently came under his command. “That means a soldier in the Third Army Corps has considerably more resources and capabilities available to them: food supplies, ammunition, equipment, power sources, batteries and so on, compared with a soldier elsewhere,” he said. They were even receiving diggers to help build underground bunkers, he said.

Makar said he had focused on using remote-controlled vehicles as tools of attack. Soldiers of his unit, NC13, part of the Third Assault Brigade, were at the forefront of Operation Vivaldi, piloting such strike vehicles on the battlefield.

The Times met a group of them, 20-year-olds with nine months’ experience in the army, during a live-fire training exercise, in which they directed remote-controlled buggies armed with rocket-propelled grenades and a Browning machine gun. Another team piloted a reconnaissance drone to supply a constant video feed.

The next day, their trainer, who uses the call sign Bar, was at the controls, guiding a robot vehicle into a tree line in a real attack.

The machine, visible in a video stream from a surveillance drone, was moving clumsily back and forth, tangled in the undergrowth as it approached the entrance of a bunker. Then suddenly the screen filled with a cloud of smoke. It was unlikely that anyone inside the bunker had survived the blast, Makar said as he watched the video replay, “That’s 20 kilos of explosive.”

As Vivaldi was drawing to conclusion, Mr. Horobets was still focused on stragglers in his area. On a livestreamed video, a soldier carrying a backpack and a weapon moved cautiously from the trees into an open field. When he reached a patch of tall grass, he stopped and crouched low, barely visible.

“He’s Russian,” Mr. Horobets said. “We have work to do.”

How the Data Center Backlash May Help Biggest Tech Companies

2026-11-09T09:56:07.188-05:00

There is an argument to be made that US voters last week merely confirmed what the markets were already saying: data center development was becoming absurdly unaffordable and needed to slow down.

But for the biggest tech companies like Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Nvidia (?... more about that tomorrow), this could prove to be an advantage. The reason is that they already have the size, scale and financial resources - as well as existing capacity - to ride out the slowdown which may affect smaller or newer companies, giving them a cost and future growth advantage. AI has long been about the rich getting richer and this this situation simply magnifies that. JL

Telis Demos reports in the Wall Street Journal:

The market's major concern hasn't been AI’s growth potential. It has been the fear that building the capacity to meet that growth would be so costly that even companies that won the AI race would end up much less profitable. Rising AI credit costs were a big factor leading AI stocks to sink in recent weeks. So if the Democrats’ sweep spurs a national slowdown in the AI computing power build-out, it could play into the hands of the biggest tech companies. A slowdown can ratchet down costs on supplies, labor and credit. And it would give existing data centers confidence that the scarcity of their asset will make it more valuable. “If you’re a data center that is already running, or have power in place, there’s scarcity value.” Amazon and Microsoft, which already control vast computing power and have the financial might to outbid for more, rallied more than 6%. Shares of computing and data center companies with less sterling credit and fewer cash resources were down.
A forced slowdown might be exactly what some AI companies need right now.
With Democrats taking not just the U.S. House and Senate, but also the governorships of states such as Texas, Ohio and Georgia, investors are now contemplating more roadblocks emerging for the construction of data centers.
That could constrain AI companies from being able to keep growing at a breakneck pace. Anthropic, in its initial public offering prospectus, listed the inability to keep securing more computing power as one of its major risk factors.
But the market’s major concern of late hasn’t been AI’s growth potential. It has been the fear that building the capacity to meet that growth would be so costly that even the companies that won the AI race would end up much less profitable than envisioned. Rising AI credit costs were a big factor leading AI stocks to sink in recent weeks.
So in that way, if Democrats’ sweep into power is really going to spur a national slowdown in the AI computing power build-out, it could actually play into the hands of many players in AI, and maybe especially to the biggest “hyperscale” tech companies.
A slowdown even at the fringes of data center development can ratchet down cost pressures on supplies, labor and credit. And it would give anyone with an existing data center more confidence that the scarcity of their asset will make it more valuable down the road.
“If you’re a data center that is already running, or have power in place, there’s scarcity value,” says Andrew Keches, who is tech, media and telecom credit analyst and head of high-yield research at Barclays. “And if construction slows, then maybe capital expenditures are lower, and that’s also good for credit.”
This dynamic helps explain what has played out in the markets since the election. Tech giants Amazon AMZN -0.35%decrease; down pointing triangle and Microsoft MSFT -0.99%decrease; down pointing triangle, which already control vast computing power and have the financial might to outbid for more, rallied more than 6% on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, shares of computing and data center companies with less sterling credit and fewer cash resources were down. The CoinShares Bitcoin Mining and Digital Power ETF, which tracks shares of many crypto companies that have pivoted to AI, was down about 9% on Wednesday.
So were shares of companies selling chips or other components in the AI race because they are vulnerable to a slowdown in orders. The PHLX Semiconductor index was down 3%.
Bonds, too, were showing a shakeout, rather than a wipeout, for AI computing. There were rallies for many bonds financing the construction of data centers not just for tenants such as Microsoft and Amazon, but also upstart computing provider CoreWeave CRWV 6.28%increase; up pointing triangle, according to MarketAxess data. These bonds saw tighter yield spreads over benchmark Treasurys.
Some exceptions, however, included bonds funding projects in Texas, regardless of tenant. The political tide shift in that state might be making investors nervous about those projects crossing the finish line, or the cost of getting there.

Another interesting indicator: While shares of Nvidia NVDA 2.78%
increase; up pointing triangle and Broadcom AVGO 0.74%increase; up pointing triangle were falling on Wednesday, a sign that there may be less demand for chips, their bonds were rallying, according to MarketAxess data.
This suggests that while investors might be pricing in some kind of slowdown in new AI projects, the market may also view the financing guarantees those companies have offered to others as becoming less risky.
Given how sharply many AI stocks and bonds have sold off lately, there could be room for more relief as Democrats’ plans come into shape.
Even if a state were to implement or extend a moratorium on construction, for example, whether it would apply to already started or late-stage projects would be a crucial variable. Some bonds also have features that protect them at the expense of the tenant, such as rent payments that kick in at a certain date regardless of construction status.
And if new projects go to the firms most willing to make compromises, such as forgoing tax incentives, or making local investments, that again may just tilt the landscape toward the biggest or most-experienced developers.
The AI build-out will still be a fierce race, even if it is run at slower speeds.

Recon: Inside One of the Ukrainian Army's Most Dangerous Jobs

2026-11-08T10:44:40.340-05:00

Even on a drone dominated battlefield, human soldiers usually have to go in closer to assess the situation. Their work requires training, patience, skill, experience - and 60% luck. JL

Asami Terajima reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Their heir work includes ambushing the enemy, countering Russian infiltrators, and clearing out Russian positions. In the era of constant drone surveillance, both sides increasingly rely on infiltration to advance forward, sending a small group of soldiers one by one until they eventually accumulate, especially under bad weather conditions. Figuring out where Russian troops are infiltrating from is part of the reconnaissance soldiers' work to guard their area of responsibility. It is especially crucial for reconnaissance soldiers to be highly trained and conduct repeated drills, as the brain "shuts off" in these nerve-wracking situations, forcing the soldiers to rely on muscle memory instead. There is only so much that the drones can see from above, compared to the reconnaissance soldiers on the ground. Survival is defined 60% by luck, 30% by skills, and 10% by alertness and patience.
On a summer day in an abandoned village in eastern Ukraine, drones had just zeroed in on a house when a Russian soldier, claiming to surrender, walked out. Instead, he pulled out a grenade. Seconds later, a Ukrainian reconnaissance team opened fire and killed him, said one of its soldiers, call sign "Psycho."
"It's a very big risk for our team," Psycho said. "You understand that he has a grenade in his hands, and he can throw it at any moment."
Working in teams of two, soldiers in his reconnaissance company with the 60th Mechanized Brigade cleared house by house under constant Russian drone surveillance. The village had long been destroyed by years of fighting, but Russian troops could still be hiding in basements, Psycho said.
Clearing a house usually took about 20 minutes, as the soldiers thoroughly checked sofas and the floors with a flashlight, Psycho said. Russian first-person-view (FPV) drones frequently interrupted their work, forcing them to take cover for hours at a time until the sky was clear.

Reconnaissance soldiers must always stay alert, he added, stressing that one brief moment of hesitation can cost the team its survival.
"You need to make decisions as quickly as possible, there is no time to think," Psycho said.
"The first days I couldn't believe that I had survived the mission."
A soldier of a reconnaissance unit of the 60th Mechanized Brigade, who goes by the call sign "Psycho," in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine, on Aug. 14, 2026. (Lisa Bukreyeva / The Kyiv Independent)
Since highly maneuverable, low-cost FPV drones started dominating the battlefield in 2023, the role of reconnaissance soldiers has significantly changed.
Where it was previously common for reconnaissance soldiers to wait for hours, sometimes days, just steps away from Russian positions to collect information, such as ammunition delivery schedules. Today, their work includes ambushing the enemy, countering Russian infiltrators, and clearing out Russian positions, according to the company's commander, call sign "Hootor."

His reconnaissance company had been clearing houses and treelines in the northern part of Donetsk Oblast as part of Operation Vivaldi since spring, months before Ukraine officially unveiled it in September.
The Lyman counteroffensive as of October 2026. (Julia Zakharevych / The Kyiv Independent)
The 3rd Army Corps spearheading the operation reported liberating 277 square kilometers (107 square miles) of Ukrainian territory, including 16 villages, in the Lyman sector by mid-October.
Commanders involved in the operation said the priority was for FPV drones to do the majority of the work, zeroing in on target Russian positions, whether it be a basement or a dugout. But even after FPV drone strikes, encountering Russian soldiers and engaging in a firefight was not uncommon, Psycho said, as drones could not always reach Russian positions, especially deep underground.
read also
How Ukraine outmaneuvered Russian troops in Operation Vivaldi
In those cases, it would be up to Ukrainian reconnaissance soldiers to go into the field and clear the positions, ensuring that there were no combatants left.

"We must destroy the enemy as quickly as possible so they don't have time to pass on information," Hootor said.
Soldiers of a reconnaissance company of the 60th Mechanized Brigade train in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine, on Aug. 14, 2026. (Lisa Bukreyeva / The Kyiv Independent)
Drone-adjusted roles
In the era of constant drone surveillance, both sides increasingly rely on infiltration to advance forward, sending a small group of soldiers one by one until they eventually accumulate, especially under bad weather conditions. Figuring out where Russian troops are infiltrating from is part of the reconnaissance soldiers' work to guard their area of responsibility, Hootor said.
"Out of ten (Russian) infiltration attempts, one will be successful," Hootor estimated. "But that one must also be countered, because it poses a threat to a specific section of the front."
The commander of a reconnaissance company in the 60th Mechanized Brigade, who goes by the call sign "Hootor," in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine, on Aug. 14, 2026. (Lisa Bukreyeva / The Kyiv Independent)
The reconnaissance soldiers on the ground combine pieces of information left behind by Russian forces in phones, maps, and radio to help identify enemy units and understand how best to counter Russian infiltration efforts, he said.

The ideal situation is if a Russian soldier surrenders, allowing them to question him, Hootor said. However, Russian captives frequently make up information, lying about their positions' location and the number of remaining soldiers there, according to Psycho.
Once they have located a Russian position, reconnaissance soldiers sneak up to it, sometimes as close as a meter and a half.
"We try to get as close as possible," Psycho said.
"In these moments, even a small mistake can be fatal," the unit's platoon commander, call sign "Bonus," said. "The key is to pull yourself together."
Soldiers of a reconnaissance company in the 60th Mechanized Brigade train in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine, on Aug. 14, 2026. (Lisa Bukreyeva / The Kyiv Independent)
He stressed that it is especially crucial for reconnaissance soldiers to be highly trained and conduct repeated drills, as the brain "shuts off" in these nerve-wracking situations, forcing the soldiers to rely on muscle memory instead.
Even among experienced reconnaissance soldiers, human factors can take over. Bonus recalled an incident in spring where he was approaching a Russian position when his partner suddenly fell into panic. Knowing that it would be a higher risk to retreat with his back turned toward the position, especially since he might already have been spotted, he decided to clear the position on his own.
"Sometimes you just need to do it quickly, rather than wait for the right moment," Bonus said.
"In nine years, I've lost a lot of friends."
A soldier of a reconnaissance company of the 60th Mechanized Brigade, who goes by the call sign "Bonus," in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine, on Aug. 14, 2026. (Lisa Bukreyeva / The Kyiv Independent)
When reconnaissance soldiers eventually reach the Russian position, they usually throw a grenade inside. If a position is difficult to clear, FPV drone strikes follow before the reconnaissance soldiers storm the position and deal with surviving Russian troops.
"The factor of unexpectedness also works well," Bonus said.
Psycho believes that it is "unrealistic" to avoid being spotted by Russian drones, no matter how quietly and carefully the reconnaissance soldiers approach the enemy position. He thinks it is likely that the Russian soldiers inside are warned about a Ukrainian group approaching, making it imperative to start engaging the Russian troops within 15 minutes.
Soldiers of a reconnaissance company in the 60th Mechanized Brigade train Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine, on Aug. 14, 2026. (Lisa Bukreyeva / The Kyiv Independent)
High-risk work
Being spotted is especially risky for reconnaissance soldiers, who are a priority target for Russian troops due to their experience and skill, Bonus said.
"(Russian troops) use every means at their disposal to destroy us. It's like a bone in the throat for them," he added. "When they find us, they just try to destroy as much as they can..."
Bonus recalled walking about 80 kilometers (about 50 miles) in a week under intense Russian drone and artillery fire, all while carrying ammunition and short on water.
During a days-long mission in spring, incessant Russian attacks going off every 30 to 40 seconds trapped Bonus' team in a house. Realizing that they had likely been spotted, his team — including three concussed soldiers — helped each other to crawl out of the building during the short time window between attacks, escaping a direct artillery strike by mere seconds.
Soldiers of a reconnaissance unit of the 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade train in Izyum, Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine, on Aug. 14, 2026. (Lisa Bukreyeva / The Kyiv Independent)
While they survived this close call, not all of Bonus' comrades came back from their mission. A reconnaissance soldier, call sign "Zhora," was killed in what was likely an FPV strike on a house. Another soldier with him survived, but suffered a permanent eye injury.
Defying the order not to rush into the attack site due to the potentially fatal risks, Bonus said he tried to retrieve Zhora from the burned-out house.
"I wanted to retrieve something (his body or part of his body) but… unfortunately my hands only picked up ashes," Bonus said, struggling to finish the sentence.
The house had completely burned down and collapsed into the basement after the drone strike, leaving nothing to be retrieved, especially in the short time before the next strike. Like thousands of other soldiers in Ukraine, Zhora is classified as missing in action until the body or a part of it is recovered for DNA confirmation.
A respected member of the company in his 40s, Zhora was always cheerful and ready to help, thoughtful, and prepared even at difficult times, his comrades recalled. Hootor said that other team members used to follow Zhora's guidance.
"In nine years, I've lost a lot of friends," Bonus said. "It's easier for me now, because I've gotten used to it. I got used to dealing with it. That's the reality."
For Psycho, the realization that he had returned from his mission did not set in immediately.
"The first days I couldn't believe that I had survived the mission," Psycho said at his base in Kharkiv Oblast in October.
Survival is defined 60% by luck, 30% by skills, and 10% by alertness and patience.
A temporary deployment site of a reconnaissance unit of the 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade in Izyum, Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine, on Aug. 14, 2026. (Lisa Bukreyeva / The Kyiv Independent)
"Red," a 24-year-old reconnaissance soldier in the company, sees death as an inevitable factor. He believes that survival is defined 60% by luck, 30% by skills, and 10% by alertness and patience.
"I believe that somewhere up there, in God's office, our lives are already written out, and wherever you are, if you're meant to live 24 years, or more, or…" Red said. "You can't run from it, whether you're at war, or here, or even deep in the rear as a civilian."
Even as the job became more dangerous, the reconnaissance soldiers with the 60th Mechanized Brigade said they would continue to do their work as long as they could. There is only so much that the drones can see from above, compared to the reconnaissance soldiers on the ground, who identify which routes are safe for infantry to take and mark suitable dugouts or shelters.
"I don't really think about it (the risks). This is my job," Red said. "My country was attacked. I have to destroy the enemy. That's what I focus on. Whether I survive or not, that's just a bonus, if it happens.”

Counterattack By Ukraine Marines Lands On Kherson's Dnipro Left Bank

2026-11-08T10:32:54.806-05:00

More destabilizing movement to test Russian defenses, throw their planners

off and create new opportunities for counterattacks all along the front. JL

Dmytro Shunlianskyi reports in Militarnyi:

Ukrainian Marines successfully landed on the left bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region and is advancing deeper into Russian-occupied territory. "They (the Marines) are advancing, assaulting enemy positions and, accordingly, moving deeper into enemy territory toward positions we have designated. They rotated, established a foothold on the left bank, advanced, consolidated their positions, handed them over, and moved farther forward,”
The Ukrainian Marine Corps has successfully landed in a settlement on the left bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region and is advancing deeper into Russian-occupied territory.
Col. Alim Kerimov, chief of staff of the 34th Separate Marine Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said this in an interview with Radio Svoboda’s Crimea.Realities project.
“We have quite several positions on the left bank where rotations are carried out regularly. We are advancing throughout this entire island area and, generally speaking, we will be — let’s put it this way — in a certain settlement on the left bank,” Kerimov said.

He did not disclose the settlement’s name or how far the Ukrainian Marines had advanced. He only added that the operations were taking place along several axes, not just one.

“I would say that they are holding their lines and positions where they are, while at the same time advancing, assaulting enemy positions and, accordingly, moving deeper into enemy territory toward positions we have designated. In other words, they rotated, established a foothold on the left bank, advanced, consolidated their positions, handed them over, and moved farther forward,” he shared.

Trump's Russian Diesel Import Scheme Falters As Ships Are Diverted Away From US

2026-11-07T10:01:03.013-05:00

Having been threatened with legal and significant financial penalties if they attempt to unload Russian diesel fuel,

port operators and fuel brokers have recommended that the Russian ships change course for destinations away from the US.

All three of the tankers known to be heading to the US under the ostensible Trump plan have thus now changed their destination for Brazil, the Mediterranean or other locales. JL

David McHugh and Paul Wiseman report in PBS:

President Donald Trump's plan to allow imports of Russian diesel faltered this week after state and federal officials warned that handling any shipments could bring legal consequences as tankers bound for the United States changed course. The arrangement has yet to produce a confirmed U.S. delivery. Analysts said the imports were unlikely to do much to lower U.S. diesel prices, which have reached record highs during the U.S. war with Iran. Two sanctioned tankers that departed from the Baltic last month originally declared their destinations as the U.S. East Coast. As of Thursday, both had changed course, one toward Brazil and the other to the Mediterranean. A third vessel changed its destination from New York to "for orders." New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill advised port and terminal operators in her state to turn away ships carrying the fuel, warning that "any effort to profit from the illegal trade in Russian fuel will be met with harsh penalties."
President Donald Trump's plan to allow imports of Russian diesel appeared to falter this week after state and federal officials warned that handling any shipments could bring legal consequences and two tankers initially bound for the United States changed course.
Trump announced an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Oct. 9 to make more than 300,000 metric tons of Russia's diesel available immediately to U.S. and global markets, with larger shipments to follow. The U.S. banned Russian energy imports after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and the deal angered some lawmakers and foreign allies.
The arrangement has yet to produce a confirmed U.S. delivery. Analysts have said the imports were unlikely to do much to lower U.S. diesel prices, which have reached record highs during the U.S. war with Iran.
Two sanctioned tankers that departed from the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk last month originally declared their destinations as the U.S. East Coast. As of Thursday, both had changed course, one toward Brazil and the other into the Mediterranean, according to marine data company Kpler and vessel traffic site MarineTraffic.com.
A third vessel was still in the North Atlantic headed toward the U.S. but changed its destination from New York to "for orders," which leaves the unloading point open. Neither the White House nor the Kremlin have disclosed whether the agreement was put in writing or revealed the price, payment terms or participating companies.
Although the Treasury Department temporarily authorized Russian diesel transactions that would ordinarily be subject to U.S. sanctions, New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill advised port and terminal operators in her state to turn away ships carrying the fuel, warning in a letter dated Monday that "any effort to profit from the illegal trade in Russian fuel will be met with harsh penalties."
Sherrill argued that the Trump administration lacked authority to override the import ban enacted by Congress more than four years ago and said New Jersey would use its legal and regulatory powers to prevent state facilities and companies from handling Russian fuel.
A bipartisan group of senators has urged Trump to negate the deal, saying the U.S. "should not provide Putin with a financial lifeline." Lawmakers also have warned major banks, port authorities and fuel distributors that facilitating the imports could expose companies to civil or criminal liability and future congressional investigations.
The administration maintains its authorization was lawful, and no court has ruled on the dispute.
In response to a request for comment Thursday, the Treasury Department issued a statement saying the sanctions exemption its Office of Foreign Assets Control issued for the sale, delivery, unloading and importing of Russian diesel until April 7 was consistent with previous actions and "in compliance with all applicable laws."
A Trump administration official who was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity said en route Russian diesel shipments would reduce price pressures for Americans. The official said increasing shipments was in keeping with Putin and Trump's agreement but did not specify whether any Russian fuel would reach the U.S. directly.
Expensive diesel can have wide-ranging economic effects, including on consumer prices, since the trucking industry and many farmers use the fuel to produce and transport goods.
Trump has tried blaming Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for this year's diesel spikes. He has pressed Ukraine to halt drone attacks that damaged Russian refineries and curbed production of the fuel.
The Financial Times first reported the diverted courses of the two sanctioned vessels, the Russian tanker Talisman and the Sierra Leone-flagged Leruo.
Kpler analyst Matt Smith said it was not clear if Russian diesel shipments had U.S. buyers yet and that the third tanker in the North Atlantic also might change course.
"Because of regulatory, sanctions concerns, we may not see this cargo discharge on the U.S. Atlantic coast," Smith said. "It's clear there's hesitancy here in bringing these barrels onshore just because of the implications of doing so."
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said details were not available about commercial shipments but that "all the diesel will find its buyers."
Putin's special envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, dismissed the Financial Times report.
"Fake. Tankers destined for the US continue on course," Dmitriev posted on X.

All-Robot Ukraine Ground Assault In Kharkiv Oblast Largest of War So Far

2026-11-07T09:18:29.939-05:00

In northern Kharkiv oblast this past week, Ukraine's 3rd Assault Brigade launched the largest all robot attack of the war on Russian positions.

The Ukrainian assault involved 28 unmanned ground vehicles of various types. And while it is not clear that the attack took the Russian defenses, it could be seen as a test of both the robots and the command systems that direct them with the intent being of trying these attacks more frequently in the future with even greater numbers of robots. JL

Euromaidan Press reports:

A recent all-robot assault carried out by the Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade on 30 October was the biggest confirmed attack by unmanned ground vehicles so far in the war: no fewer than 28 UGVs of all kinds rolled across the gray zone near the village of Druzheliubivka in northern Ukraine's Kharkiv Oblast. The attack involved eight self-exploding UGVs plus another 20 UGVs with handheld weapons: 18 with pairs of single-round grenade launchers and two with automatic grenade launchers firing more but smaller rounds. The Russians posted a video depicting FPV attacks on the approaching Ukrainian UGVs. The robot itself is just the visible part of a complex system. The radio networks and other systems connecting the robots to their distant operators are just as important as the robots themselves. It's Ukraine's mastery of these command systems that guarantees more all-robot assaults are coming.
All-robot amphibious landings, air assaults, engineering operations, and resupply are increasingly commonplace in Russia's wider war on Ukraine, now in its 57th month. They're especially common on the Ukrainian side as Kyiv rushes to reinforce its manpower-starved armed forces with unmanned systems of all kinds.
One recent all-robot assault carried out by the Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade on or just before 30 October stood out, however. It was the biggest confirmed attack by unmanned ground vehicles so far in the wider war: no fewer than 28 UGVs of all kinds rolled across the gray zone near the village of Druzheliubivka in northern Ukraine's Kharkiv Oblast.
Map: Euromaidan Press
It seems the Russians spotted the assault from far away and swiftly defeated it, mostly by sending in explosive first-person-view drones. But it could be a temporary win. UGVs are cheap, some costing a few tens of thousands of dollars, and Ukraine is building a lot of them. Former Ukrainian defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov claimed Ukraine would acquire 25,000 UGVs in just the first six months of 2026. The figure for the rest of the year is likely to be as high or higher.
Those 28 Ukrainian UGVs may have failed to breach Russian positions. The next 28 might succeed.
The daylight all-robot ground assault, which came around two years after the first-ever all-robot ground assault and four months after the first all-robot amphibious landing and air assault (all carried out by the Ukrainians), reportedly involved eight self-exploding UGVs plus another 20 UGVs with handheld weapons: 18 with pairs of single-round grenade launchers and two with automatic grenade launchers firing more but smaller rounds.

The Russians posted a video montage depicting FPV attacks on the approaching Ukrainian UGVs. If any of the Ukrainian robots got close enough to Russian positions to directly engage, it's not apparent from the video.
The Ukrainian plan seemingly failed. But that doesn't mean it was an unsound plan. Examples abound of recent, but smaller, all-robot or robot-led ground operations. Aerial drones and ground robots led the way in the Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps' successful Operation Vivaldi counteroffensive, which ejected a pair of Russian field armies from a critical sector of eastern Ukraine's northern Donetsk Oblast starting in March.
For Operation Vivaldi, the 3rd Army Corps deployed mine-clearing ground robots and remote-controlled BTR-60 armored personnel carriers converted into powerful rolling bombs. Even more dramatically, the corps and its supporting drone units organized all-robot air assaults. Heavy octocopter bomber drones carried armed UGVs across the gray zone and deposited them right in front of or right behind Russian positions.

Precious manpower
Operation Vivaldi's robot operations succeeded where the recent 28-UGV assault apparently failed. The occasional defeat belies the frequent victories. In any event, Ukrainian forces are going all-in on robots because they have no other choice. Short tens of thousands of trained infantry, the Ukrainian ground forces struggle to fully man all 150 of their line brigades.
Robots are the obvious solution. “Fighting against a much bigger power, Ukraine throughout the war has needed to leverage technology to be able to fight back and take the fight to Russia,” war correspondent David Kirichenko told Euromaidan Press.
But replacing people with robots is easier said than done. The robot itself is just the visible part of a complex system. The radio networks and other systems connecting the robots to their distant operators are just as important as the robots themselves.

Every control system the Ukrainians use has advantages and disadvantages. The wireless systems, including satellite, line-of-sight, and mesh radios, are subject to Russian jamming and, in the case of Starlink and Starshield, also subject to throttling by trillionaire Elon Musk's SpaceX. It's possible to connect a UGV to its operator via a kilometers-long spool of optical fiber, but the fiber tends to get caught on trees and rocks and break.
Given how fragile any single system can be, the Ukrainians have learned to install multiple command systems on every UGV. Backups for the backups. When you see 28 armed robots roll into battle, the machines aren't the impressive part. The command systems are what matter most.
It's Ukraine's mastery of these command systems that guarantees more all-robot assaults are coming.

Anthropic's $1.5 Trillion Valuation Now Drawing Doubts From Investors

2026-11-07T08:59:59.079-05:00

Elections have consequences - and so do market crashes. With both events having happened this week, investors are now casting doubt on Anthropic's putative IPO valuation at $1,5 trillion, with many saying it is more likely to come in at $1 trillion.

Anthropic could choose to raise less money or even delay the offering, but it is not likely that market conditions are going to improve. The question now is whether AI's high water mark has already been reached or whether it still has some room to run. JL

Corrie Driebusch and colleagues report in the Wall Street Journal:

Major investors are increasingly skeptical Anthropic’s initial public offering can proceed at the expected valuation of $1.5 trillion after a deep market selloff tied to the unwinding of artificial-intelligence related bets. Three major investors who plan to participate in the IPO say the valuation will likely need to come down, with one saying it could be closer to $1 trillion. The company could decide to raise less money than anticipated, perhaps $80 billion, said one investor who plans to participate in the IPO. That same investor hopes for the company to have well over $200 billion on its balance sheet post-IPO. Anthropic had $146.6 billion cash on hand as of Sept. 30. Another investor who plans to participate wondered if Anthropic might delay its offering to wait for more favorable conditions. Even before Thursday’s rout, investor enthusiasm had been waning for AI.
Major investors are increasingly skeptical Anthropic’s blockbuster initial public offering can proceed at the expected valuation of $1.5 trillion after a deep market selloff tied to the unwinding of artificial-intelligence related bets, according to people familiar with the matter.
Anthropic is aiming to stage the IPO the week before Thanksgiving and has been expected to raise up to $100 billion in an offering that could value the company at around $1.5 trillion.
But three major investors who plan to participate in the IPO say the valuation will likely need to come down, with one saying it could be closer to $1 trillion.
Investors had been eagerly anticipating the offering for months, with many saying they viewed Anthropic as a “must-own” name, even as other AI-related stocks wobbled.
Some are eager to see Anthropic’s October results before assuming a valuation cut. Anthropic’s run rate—a metric used to estimate annual revenue—topped $80 billion at the end of October, up from the prior month, according to a person familiar with the matter.
The company could also decide to raise less money than anticipated, perhaps to around $80 billion, said one investor who plans to participate in the IPO. That same investor hopes for the company to have well over $200 billion on its balance sheet post-IPO. Anthropic had $146.6 billion cash on hand as of Sept. 30.
Another investor who plans to participate wondered if Anthropic might delay its offering to wait for more favorable conditions. Even if the market bounces back, it could be a challenge to persuade institutional investors who have just been burned in the recent selloff to take a big risk on the AI sector again so soon.
Anthropic executives and its advisers are expected to meet in the next few days to discuss its IPO plans. They have avoided committing to specific plans throughout the process to maintain optionality, some of the people familiar with the matter said.
Anthropic’s plans have implications for the market and economy, given both the scale of its planned offering and the interconnectedness of its business with some of the biggest names in technology including Google, Amazon and Nvidia. Both private and public market investors worry about the collateral damage a change in Anthropic’s IPO plans could inflict on the rest of their portfolios.
Anthropic had been poised to break records previously set by SpaceX’s offering in June and stage what would be the largest offering of all time. But investors revolted against AI bets this week, with companies in the Nasdaq composite shedding $2.5 trillion of value Thursday, two days after the midterm elections swept a bloc of AI skeptics into power and passed moratoriums that could slow America’s data center development.

Even before Thursday’s rout, investor enthusiasm had been waning for AI names. Anthropic rival OpenAI has raised less than half of the $30 billion it had initially targeted for its latest funding round, the Journal reported. The company so far has received $11 billion at a valuation of $1.25 trillion, a lower valuation than it initially targeted.

Ukraine Expands Lyman Counteroffensive To Kharkhiv Oblast

2026-11-06T11:12:23.556-05:00

Add northern Kharkiv oblast to the sectors where Ukrainian forces have thwarted Russian advance attempts and have begun counterattacking. JL

Mariia Kritsak reports in Gwara Media:

Ukrainian have expanded the Lyman counteroffensive to the Borova direction to push Russian forces back away from the Oskil River and to alleviate pressure on the town of Borova from the north. After recapturing the village of Zelenyi Hai, Ukrainian assault groups also began pushing north by infiltrating Vyshneve village. Ukrainian forces have counterattacked northeast of Borova.
Ukrainian forces have recaptured the village of Zelenyi Hai in Kharkiv region, Borova axis, reported AMK Mapping, a New Zealand-based independent OSINT project.
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russian troops continued limited offensive operations in the Borova direction on Nov. 4 and 5 but did not advance, as Ukrainian forces counterattacked northeast of Borova.
According to AMK Mapping, Ukrainian forces have expanded the Lyman counteroffensive to the Borova direction to push Russian forces back away from the Oskil River and to alleviate pressure on the town of Borova from the north. After recapturing the village of Zelenyi Hai, Ukrainian assault groups also began pushing north by infiltrating Vyshneve village.

Russian Orikhiv Assault Decimated As Initiative Shifts To Ukraine Counterattacks

2026-11-06T10:02:29.781-05:00

Russia's southern strategy, based on attacks towards Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia oblast has been derailed, as Ukrainian infantry and drone operators again isolated Russian assault forces by cutting off their reinforcements and supplies.

This drained the Russian offensive of momentum as they could not assemble the necessary force for a breakthrough. Ukrainian counterattacks have now seized the initiative and are pushing the Russians back. JL

RFU News reports:

Ukraine achieved a significant success in Orikhiv, where Russian forces have been pushed out of the city after nearly three months of brutal fighting. The town anchors Ukraine’s defenses south of Zaporizhia. Ukrainian forces are now pressing southward along the same approaches used by Russian assault groups. Ukrainian drone operators played a decisive role, as they didn’t concentrate on the Russians already inside Orikhiv, but attacked the reinforcements attempting to reach them. As a result, the Russian offensive began losing momentum, and despite continued attempts to reinforce, repeated casualties reduced the ability to concentrate sufficient forces for a breakthrough. The initiative around Orikhiv has shifted toward Ukrainian counterattacks

Today, there is important news from the Zaporizhia direction.
Here, Ukraine achieved a significant success in Orikhiv, where Russian infiltration attempts have been pushed out of the city after nearly three months of brutal fighting. Ukrainian forces are now pressing southward along the same approaches used by Russian assault groups to prevent future infiltration. Fighting has shifted toward Novodanylivka, where Ukrainian troops are expanding their presence in contested areas and pushing the enemy from the southern part of the village, and Mala Tokmachka, with Ukrainian forces controlling half the settlement.
The importance of Orikhiv cannot be underestimated, as the town anchors Ukraine’s defenses south of Zaporizhia, and its capture would give Russian forces a valuable position. From there, and the interconnected six major roads, they can threaten Ukrainian logistics and develop further advances toward the regional capital. However, preventing its capture was exceptionally difficult, as Russian commanders enjoyed a numerical advantage, while Ukrainian defenders faced shortages of infantry, equipment, and ammunition. Russia also reinforced this direction with experienced Rubikon drone operators, supporting infiltration groups attempting to penetrate Ukrainian positions.
Russian drones threatened Ukrainian movements while small Russian assault groups exploited damaged buildings, trenches, and gaps between defensive positions. In an urban environment, even a handful of infiltrators can create serious problems. Once Russian soldiers occupy ruined buildings and establish interconnected defensive positions, eliminating them becomes considerably more difficult, so Ukrainian forces needed to prevent isolated groups from accumulating into a larger, sustainable presence.
Here, Ukrainian drone operators played a decisive role, as they didn’t concentrate exclusively on the Russians already inside Orikhiv, but attacked the reinforcements attempting to reach them. Russian movements through Novoandriivka came under drone strikes, disrupting attempts to bring additional personnel and supplies toward the city. Another important Russian approach passed through Novodanylivka, where relatively preserved roads offered Russian forces opportunities to move troops using all-terrain vehicles, which were intercepted by Ukrainian FPV drones. Despite ATVs giving speed and mobility advantage, once detected and targeted, they provided no protection, and every destroyed vehicle reduced the number of soldiers and supplies reaching Russian infiltration groups. This created a growing operational problem for the Russian command, as the troops already inside the urban area required ammunition, reinforcements, and rotations to maintain their positions. Without these, they could neither expand their footholds nor withstand the sustained Ukrainian counterattacks.
As a result, the Russian offensive began losing momentum, and despite continued attempts to reinforce, repeated casualties reduced the ability to concentrate sufficient forces for a decisive breakthrough and changed the balance inside Orikhiv. Instead of confronting an expanding Russian presence supported by continuous reinforcements, Ukrainian infantry could focus on eliminating isolated groups whose supplies and replacements were increasingly restricted. As these positions were cleared, Ukrainian troops regained control of the town and began pushing toward the approaches from which the Russians had entered. The available casualty figures for the first two weeks of October illustrate the scale of the fighting, as the Ukrainian Southern Operational Task Force reported two-thousand-seven-hundred-and-sixty eliminated Russians in the wider area, alongside more than one thousand weapons and equipment losses.
Overall, after three months of attempted infiltrations, Russia has failed to turn its numerical advantage into lasting control of Orikhiv. Ukraine’s clearing success protects a critical defensive stronghold, disrupts Russian plans for a breakthrough toward Zaporizhia and forces the Russian command to begin rebuilding the assault formations that suffered heavy losses, which could take months, with the Russians lacking reserves in numerous directions. As a result, the initiative around Orikhiv has shifted toward Ukrainian counterattacks, although fighting in the surrounding villages continues.

Nasdaq Loses $2.5 Trillion In Wipe Out As "AI Trade" Cracks

2026-11-06T09:40:47.617-05:00

This time is different, all right, but not exactly in the way the Silicon Valley-AI hype machine meant.

Like the blue tsunami that annihilated the Trump-MAGA coalition on Tuesday - and to which it is connected - the equity market wipe out had many different causes, none of which should have come as a surprise as they had been detailed for months: unrealistic financial projections, lack of discernible operating and economic improvements, slowing corporate uptake, dramatic increases in debt, refusal to acknowledge practical impediments to data center buildouts (aside from the rising political opposition) and the growing dependence of the economy and the markets on a shrinking core of AI companies. Markets are up slightly this morning, so this may either be a one-day freakout or a harbinger of more fundamental change, but either way, it is another warning that the prolonged AI trade is not likely to continue in the same way. JL

David Uberti and colleagues report in the Wall Street Journal:

Thursday's stock-market wipeout left few corners of the tech sector unscathed. Asian chip makers, Texas power producers, New Jersey cloud-computing providers, Silicon Valley software makers, contractors and data-center developers all tumbled, in a selloff that appeared to feed on itself. Traders making highly leveraged bets got crushed, but so did those who doubted a recent pullback in AI stocks would get worse. It did, from the opening bell. cracks began to show in risky corners of the AI trade where companies amassed huge piles of debt to grow. Underwhelming earnings reports by Amazon and Alphabet sent tremors across trading desks. Then, the power shift in Washington, as well as the election of governors who promised data-center restrictions, exposed the stock market’s fragility. The yearslong bull market left the major U.S. benchmark indexes top-heavy and tech-dependent. The unwind of bullish bets using borrowed money compounded the pressure.
decrease; down pointing triangleand Alphabet GOOGL -2.20%decrease; down pointing triangle sent tremors across trading desks.the power shift in Washington, as well as the election of several governors who have promised data-center restrictions, exposed the stock market’s fragility. The yearslong bull market left the major U.S. benchmark indexes top-heavy and tech-dependent.
Two days after the midterm elections swept a bloc of artificial-intelligence skeptics into power, the new reality slammed into Wall Street.
Thursday’s stock-market wipeout left few corners of the tech sector unscathed. Asian chip makers, Texas power producers, New Jersey cloud-computing providers, Silicon Valley software makers, contractors and data-center developers all tumbled, often in unison, in a selloff that appeared to feed on itself as the day wore on.
Traders making highly leveraged bets got crushed, but so did those who doubted a recent pullback in AI stocks would get worse. It did, from the opening bell.
“It seems like the rug is getting pulled out from under it,” said Jonathan Corpina, senior managing partner at Meridian Equity Partners. “The market continues to be extremely fragile with all this uncertainty in front of us.”
By Thursday afternoon, some $1 trillion of the Magnificent Seven group of tech giants’ collective market value had vanished. The PHLX Semiconductor index posted its worst day since the depths of the pandemic. The Nasdaq composite stumbled into correction territory, shedding an estimated $2.5 trillion in total market value. That was the biggest drop in the benchmark’s history. And the poster child of the AI boom, Nvidia NVDA -9.26%decrease; down pointing triangle, closed the session in the red—for 2026.

It was only a few weeks ago when AI stocks were still propelling the markets to record highs, with investors looking expectantly toward the planned initial public offerings of Anthropic and OpenAI.
Then, the pressure started to build.
First, cracks began to show in risky corners of the AI trade where companies amassed huge piles of debt to grow. Underwhelming earnings reports by Amazon AMZN -2.19%decrease; down pointing triangle and Alphabet GOOGL -2.20%decrease; down pointing triangle sent tremors across trading desks.
Now, the power shift in Washington, as well as the election of several governors who have promised data-center restrictions, exposed the stock market’s fragility. The yearslong bull market left the major U.S. benchmark indexes top-heavy and tech-dependent.
Thursday’s selloff broadened to drag every sector of the S&P 500 into the red, a departure from recent sessions when weakness in AI stocks spurred a large rotation into other areas of the market. The Nasdaq composite’s tumble marked its worst day since President Trump’s tariff announcements last year sent markets haywire.
A data center under construction in Georgia. Dustin Chambers for WSJ
“When tech is leading the way, it’s very easy to get on board,” Corpina said. “When tech gets hit, it certainly makes investors a lot more uneasy.”
On Wednesday, the prospect of a slowdown in construction battered chip makers, contractors and other infrastructure firms. But gains in the shares of the biggest hyperscalers—whose massive spending plans could shrink with a pullback—helped push indexes higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average logging its biggest gain in almost 19 months.
That bifurcation between the biggest AI players and their suppliers continued on Thursday. While Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet traded in the red, they sidestepped most of the pain coursing through the AI supply chain.
There was one exception among the hyperscalers, though: SpaceX, which is teaming up with Tesla to build its massive Terafab chip factory in Texas to help support Elon Musk’s stratospheric ambitions. Shares in both firms fell by more than 9%, suggesting traders were particularly worried about Musk-owned companies given the tech titan’s close ties to the Trump administration.

Investors had rested their hopes that the AI-fueled rally would extend into 2027 on the premise that firms with such capacity could continue printing blockbuster profits. The “picks and shovels” plays at the heart of the AI trade—companies like Micron and Nvidia—powered much of that eye-popping profit jump.
A change in the political backdrop “matters because AI infrastructure names, especially semiconductors and memory, are the key drivers of S&P 500 earnings growth,” said Mike O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading. “Due to the expected policy shift, the earnings forecasts for next year can no longer be trusted.”
While few expect new data-center projects to grind to a halt, any future delays could have big consequences for a crucial part of the U.S. economy.

“If you’re investing in a project and you think you’re six to 12 months away from generating revenue, but you’re really two to three years away, you’ve got a number of problems,” said Matt Rowe, a senior portfolio manager at hedge-fund giant Man Group.
In Texas, which has more planned data-center projects than any other state, Wall Street expected that Republican Gov. Greg Abbott’s recently announced data-center moratorium was largely for show ahead of the election and would be reversed.
Now, investors and analysts are rushing to assess what a longer pause on new projects could look like. Democratic Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa has called for new approvals to remain on pause until the Texas Legislature can meet next year to pass “real protections.”
“I don’t think anybody in July or August thought that it would get this dicey,” said Mark Melchiorre, chief investment officer of credit-focused hedge fund Forza Investment Group. “Some projects will stall.”
Investors said Wall Street’s delayed reaction to the election stems in part from a steep decline in oil prices Wednesday after Trump and Vice President JD Vance acknowledged the war with Iran had dimmed Republicans’ political fortunes. That momentarily buoyed investors’ hopes that inflation eating into Americans’ paychecks would ease.
But a partial rebound in crude costs Thursday opened the door wider for a selloff. Late in the afternoon, individual investors were on pace for their biggest day of net stock sales since the Covid-19 pandemic, according to Vanda Analytics. Mechanical selling amplified the losses, said Ben Emons, founder and chief investment officer at FedWatch Advisors.

Early in the session, Emons said, options traders scrambling to cover their positions helped spark indexes’ sharp declines. As losses mounted, systematic hedge funds piled in and juiced the downward momentum.
The unwind of bullish bets using borrowed money compounded the pressure. Traders who piled into triple-leveraged exchange-traded funds or indexes linked to chips enjoyed magnified gains during the AI-driven rally earlier this year. But the dynamics reverse when prices fall. The Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF, which seeks 300% of the daily performance of the NYSE Semiconductor Index, plummeted 39% Thursday.
“When that momentum starts to go against investors, particularly when there’s leverage involved, it can lead to what might seem like extreme selloffs,” said Mike Bell, head of market strategy at RBC BlueBay Asset Management. “Sometimes markets go down because people sell, and sometimes people sell because markets are going down.”

Russia's Undertrained and Manned Motor Rifle Brigades Bear Brunt of Losses

2026-11-05T13:13:31.287-05:00

The core of the Russian army is made up of Motor Rifle Brigades - motorized infantry.

And they are being decimated by ineffective, often suicidal tactics, poor training, inadequate equipment and corrupt officers. Their casualties are staggering. JL

Amarsanaa Jegal reports in Medium:

"In the fifth year of the Russia–Ukraine war, the Russian force suffering the heaviest losses is its infantry. Motor rifle brigades, which bear the main burden of the Russian's offensive operations, are losing enormous numbers of soldiers.” The list of the heaviest losses is headed by the 15th Motor Rifle Brigade. Reports suggest its soldiers suffer not only in frontline combat but also as a result of violence, intimidation and demands for money by their commanders. The 30th Motor Rifle Brigade, based in Samara, came second. All five of the motor rifle brigades with the highest losses took part in the battle for Avdiivka, where Russia lost 16,000 men. The poor training of Russian motor rifle units had been highlighted early in the war.
In her article, Infantrymen Reduced to Rubble: What We Know About the Russian Army’s Losses, Olga Ivshina, a correspondent for BBC News Russian, highlights that “in the fifth year of the Russia–Ukraine war, the Russian military force suffering the heaviest losses is not its tank or missile units, but its infantry. Motor rifle brigades, which bear the main burden of the Russian army’s offensive operations, are losing enormous numbers of soldiers, yet Moscow continues to recruit new personnel and send them to the front to replace those killed.”
Working together with Mediazona and a team of volunteer researchers, the BBC has identified 285,023 Russian military personnel whose deaths have been confirmed through open sources. This is not the full number of actual losses; it is a record only of those whose deaths could be verified with documentary evidence. According to the investigation, the combined number of confirmed deaths among the five motor rifle brigades that have suffered the heaviest losses has reached 15,312. These units have been at the forefront of the Russian army’s offensive operations since the second half of 2023.
The list of the heaviest losses is headed by the 15th Motor Rifle Brigade, known as the “Black Hussars”. Previous investigative reports about this unit contained accounts suggesting that soldiers may have suffered not only in frontline combat but also as a result of violence, intimidation and demands for money by their own commanders. Some families claimed that their relatives may have been killed by fellow Russian servicemen for refusing to comply with their commanders’ demands.
The 30th Motor Rifle Brigade, based in the Samara region, came second. Before the war, this unit had been reorganised for mobile operations, but it was not adequately prepared to face the prolonged and fierce resistance encountered in Ukraine. Western analysts concluded that deficiencies in communications, supplies and coordination between units made the situation even worse.
Losses among Russian motor rifle units began to rise sharply towards the end of 2023. Before that, the heaviest burden of offensive operations had been borne by the Wagner mercenary group. During the months-long battle for Bakhmut, Wagner began using a tactic in which small groups of infantrymen were sent ahead towards fortified Ukrainian positions. This forced Ukrainian troops to open fire and reveal their positions, after which Russian artillery would destroy those locations. The Russian army’s motor rifle units later began using this method extensively, despite the enormous loss of their own soldiers it caused.
To replace its losses, the Russian army continually recruits new contract soldiers. According to the BBC investigation, at least 41 per cent of the confirmed deaths among soldiers from the 30th Brigade were voluntary contract servicemen.
One of them was 28-year-old Timofey Fedotov. Before the war, he worked at a factory in the Perm region, earning approximately 25,000 roubles a month. However, by 2023, his fines and loan debts had reached 200,000 roubles, so he signed a contract with the army towards the end of that year. He fought in the Avdiivka sector and was captured by Ukrainian forces in February 2024. He was subsequently returned to Russia through a prisoner-of-war exchange, but was sent back to the front. He was eventually killed in August 2026.
His story is not an isolated case. The BBC investigation identified 152 people who had been captured, returned to Russia through prisoner exchanges, sent back to the front and subsequently killed. The actual number is likely to be even higher. This shows that the Russian army is addressing its manpower shortages not only by recruiting new soldiers but also by sending people who had previously been removed from the war back to the frontline.
All five of the motor rifle brigades with the highest losses took part in the battle for Avdiivka. Russian forces captured the city in February 2024, but this victory came at an enormous human cost.
At the time, Russian military correspondent and pro-war Z-blogger Andrey Morozov criticised his military command’s tactics, accusing it of repeatedly sending poorly trained infantrymen against Ukrainian fortifications. He estimated that Russia had lost 16,000 men in the battle for Avdiivka. Following the publication of his article, Morozov was harshly criticised on Russian state television and took his own life shortly afterwards.
The poor training of Russian motor rifle units had also been highlighted by Western analysts in the early stages of the war. For example, in May 2022, during an attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets River, Russia’s 74th Motor Rifle Brigade repeatedly tried to establish a crossing without adequate intelligence, fire support or security preparations. Ukrainian forces detected the attempts and destroyed them with artillery, yet Russian soldiers continued to make the same attempts.
Nevertheless, Russian infantry has adapted to a certain extent as the war has progressed. Instead of operating in large formations, soldiers have learnt to attack in small groups and penetrate gaps in Ukrainian defences. In an April 2026 study, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) noted that the increasing use of small drones on the frontline was making Russian infantry operations increasingly dispersed.
This new Russian offensive method involves sending small groups of one or two soldiers into grey zones that are not yet fully under Ukrainian control. Their objective is to reach Ukrainian positions, find somewhere to hide and hold that position until additional forces arrive to organise supplies and support. However, when drone operations slow down because of weather conditions, Russian forces return to attacks using armoured vehicles. In other words, although the Russian army is changing its tactics and adapting to the threat posed by drones, infantry continues to bear the main burden of its offensive operations.
The most striking part of the BBC investigation is its estimate of the actual number of Russian military deaths. Military analysts believe that the 285,023 deaths identified through open sources may account for only 45–55 per cent of the actual total. This estimate excludes people whose deaths have not been made public and bodies that have been left on the battlefield. On this basis, the actual number of Russian soldiers killed may have reached between 518,224 and 633,384.
If the losses suffered by the armed forces of Donetsk and Luhansk, which fought on Russia’s side, as well as North Korean troops, are added to this figure, the total becomes even higher. According to the BBC, between 21,000 and 23,500 soldiers from the Donetsk and Luhansk forces may have been killed by the end of 2022. In addition, the names of 2,304 North Korean soldiers who died fighting on Russia’s side in 2024–2025 have been identified. This produces an estimated total of between 541,528 and 659,188 military personnel killed among the forces that fought in support of Russia.
The Russia–Ukraine war has become more than a struggle over weapons, military equipment and territory. The example of the Russian army shows how military operations are being sustained by replacing enormous human losses with newly recruited contract soldiers and by sending captured soldiers who have returned home back to the frontline. However, changing tactics and replenishing manpower cannot reduce the actual cost of the war. On the contrary, this investigation shows the emergence of a system in which ever more human lives are sacrificed to capture a single position or advance a few kilometres.
Since the beginning of the Russia–Ukraine war, the Russian army’s human losses have reached historically high levels. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, on 1 November 2026, the Russian army lost 54,400 soldiers in October through deaths and serious injuries. This was the highest monthly figure since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. On 21 October, Russian military losses reached 2,250 soldiers in a single day, setting a daily record.
He also emphasised that the Ukrainian army liberated 96.2 square kilometres of territory in October, which was 10.4 square kilometres more than the territory captured by Russia.
According to estimates by The Economist, total Russian military casualties since the beginning of the war — including those killed and wounded — may have reached between 1.4 million and 2.1 million. The Economist estimates that between 374,000 and 770,000 of them may have been killed.
According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, total Russian military losses had reached 1,590,270 by 1 November 2026. Approximately 54,400 casualties were recorded in October alone. This figure does not represent the number of people killed; it is the combined total of those killed, wounded and other categories of military losses.
Ukrainian records also indicate that Russia has lost 12,451 tanks, 25,622 armoured vehicles, 51,755 artillery systems, 591,605 drones, 452 aircraft and 356 helicopters. Meanwhile, the Russian Ministry of Defence has not updated its official information on military losses since September 2022.
According to some Western and independent political analysts, ending the war could pose a major domestic political risk for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Those who support this position argue that, after such enormous losses of human life and economic damage, ending the war without achieving a clear “victory” could provoke criticism from the elites and nationalists, potentially triggering domestic instability and opposition.
All of this confirms that the Russian army has de facto lost the war that has now entered its fifth year. Yet Vladimir Putin cannot stop the war he himself initiated without risking the loss of his position. Consequently, rather than ending it, he continues fighting and moving towards complete defeat.
The main issue, therefore, is that peace negotiations are merely a show designed to buy time. It has become clear that the war will not end as long as Vladimir Putin remains in power. But this raises another question: what, then, is the main issue?
The answer lies in the fact that Russia officially withdrew on 1 November 2026 from the European Convention for the Prevention of Torture and Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment, which it had joined in 1997 under the Council of Europe.
According to the Council of Europe, the Russian authorities formally notified it of their decision to withdraw from the Convention on 30 October 2025. Under the established procedure, the decision came into force one year later, on 1 November 2026. As a result, Russia ceased to be a party to this Convention, which operates within the framework of the Council of Europe to prevent torture, and officially became a country that tortures people.
At the same time, Russia’s parliament, the Duma, is preparing to approve the 2027 Russian federal budget — a plan to print empty roubles intended solely to finance the war. This is not a state budget; it is a plan that will bring about economic default.
Thus, history is repeating itself in Russia: the Putin regime will collapse, and the Russian Federation will disintegrate. This will be the first confirmation that a dictatorial system in which those in power never change is becoming a thing of the past. This is the main issue hidden behind the Russian army’s losses.

On November 1, Russia Lost One Soldier Every 35 Seconds

2026-11-05T12:19:40.341-05:00

The scale of Russian losses has become so enormous that they have become mind-numbing - at least for those who are not the casualties themselves. JL

Jimmy Rushton reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Russian Russian forces suffered a record 2,500 personnel losses on Nov. 1, approximately one every 35 seconds. "These are the enemy's largest daily losses during the entire full-scale war," October 2026 was the deadliest month for Russian troops since the start of the full-scale invasion. Russian forces suffered 54,400 personnel losses in October, roughly equivalent to the population of Vorkuta, a city in Russia.
Russian forces suffered a record 2,500 personnel losses on Nov. 1, Ukraine's General Staff said.
"These are the enemy's largest daily losses during the entire full-scale war," the General Staff said on Nov. 2.
A Russian soldier is considered "lost" if they are killed in action, captured as a prisoner of war or sustain wounds severe enough to prevent them from returning to combat.
Drones currently account for the majority of casualties on both sides. Ukrainian military units are also awarded additional equipment based on the number of confirmed Russian military losses they inflict.

The previous record for Russian daily personnel losses was 2,250, reported on Oct. 21, 2026.
October 2026 was the deadliest month for Russian troops since the start of the full-scale invasion, according to Ukraine's General Staff.
Russian forces suffered 54,400 personnel losses in October, roughly equivalent to the population of Vorkuta, a city in Russia's northern Komi Republic, the statement read.
"Think about it: one month, one city," the General Staff said.

Russia has suffered 1,592,770 personnel losses in Ukraine since launching its full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022, as of Nov. 2, Ukraine's General Staff said.
As Russia's battlefield losses mount, Moscow faces growing pressure to step up its mobilization efforts.
President Volodymyr Zelensky warned in August that Russia plans to mobilize around 300,000 people after its September election is out of the way. So far, Moscow announced plans to conscript an additional 120,000 people on Oct. 2.
The General Staff has not revealed its own losses during the full-scale invasion, citing operational secrecy. Independent Western think-tank reports agree that the Russian casualties significantly surpass Ukraine's losses, with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimating the ratio to be "roughly 2.5:1 or 2:1."

A January 2026 CSIS report said Ukraine has likely suffered between 500,000 and 600,000 casualties from February 2022 to December 2025, of which between 100,000 and 140,000 are thought to have been killed in action.

North Korean Hackers' Fake Job Interviews, AI Made $6.3 Billion Binance Heist

2026-11-05T12:02:59.182-05:00

There is a delicious irony in the fact that a crypto firm known for its attempts to evade regulation and taxes was hacked and ripped off by a North Korean government known for its expertise in exploiting in firms' security defenses. Karma. JL

Cris Tolomia reports in Quartz:

Binance said hackers from North Korea used fake job interviews and malicious software to steal $6.3 billion from the exchange. The attack began in June, when a staffer who builds Binance's wallets installed a doctored AI tool. Binance spotted the problem and swapped out the device, though the hacker learned the employee's role and those of others on the wallet team. In September, someone posing as a project director approached a second software engineer through a job hunting platform. That engineer took part in an interview on a social messaging app with someone posing as the CEO of an invented company, and was told to download an assignment that held a "malicious code repository." On Oct. 20, the attackers leveraged an internal AI along with the second engineer's infected computer to seize command of the devices belonging to two other engineers. On Oct. 29, the attackers logged in with stolen credentials and ran a malicious script that kicked off the theft,
Binance said Tuesday that hackers it attributes to North Korea used fake job interviews and malicious software to steal $6.3 billion from the exchange, according to Bloomberg. The company called the breach a "sophisticated, multi-stage campaign" in an incident report published Tuesday, Bloomberg reported.

The attack began in June, when a staffer who builds Binance's wallets installed a doctored AI tool, according to NBC News. Binance spotted the problem, swapped out the device and reset credentials, though the hacker still learned the employee's role and those of teammates on the wallet team, NBC News reported.
In September, someone posing as a project director approached a second software engineer through a job hunting platform, according to Bloomberg. That engineer then took part in an interview on a social messaging app with someone posing as the CEO of an invented company, and was told to download an assignment that held a "malicious code repository."

On Oct. 20, the attackers leveraged an internal AI tool along with the second engineer's infected computer to seize command of the devices belonging to two other engineers, according to The Block $SQ NaN%. Then on Oct. 29, the attackers logged in with stolen credentials, set up a container and ran a malicious script that kicked off the theft from the wallet, The Block reported.
“This was not a single mistake or a single breach. It was a campaign built over many months,” Binance Co-CEO Richard Teng said, according to Bloomberg. Teng said the attackers blended sham hiring interviews, malware posing as genuine developer tools, hijacked devices and AI-driven methods.
About $2.85 billion in assets has been frozen or intercepted by Binance, which has also restored 98% of the affected assets, according to The Block. Binance has said it is reimbursing every customer who lost money, according to NBC News.

The exchange paused withdrawals after the incident and began letting users take out funds again on Sunday, according to Bloomberg. By Tuesday, deposits per hour had begun to outpace withdrawals per hour, Bloomberg reported.
Binance said it has shut the entry points the attackers exploited, replaced or rebuilt the systems that were hit, tightened controls on devices and broadened its AI-based anomaly detection, according to The Block. It also said it caught and stopped 57 attacks in 2026 that it suspects were tied to North Korea, many of which relied on comparable methods.
The FBI has attributed the breach to North Korean hackers, according to Bloomberg. North Korea has denied the claim. On Monday, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un called the FBI's claims a "grave political provocation," according to The Block.

Six KM Tunnel Allows Ukraine To Move Troops, Supplies Underground

2026-11-04T12:06:38.493-05:00

A clever innovation by Ukrainian engineering troops, the tunnel permits the movement of men, supplies and medical evacuations with less risk from drone attack. JL

Valentyna Romanenko reports in Ukraine Pravda:

An underground tunnel nearly six kilometres long has been constructed in Donetsk Oblast for Ukrainian forces, ensuring the uninterrupted movement of personnel and vehicles, the supply of ammunition and provisions, and medical evacuation. The engineering structure ensures concealed movement. Devised by military engineers, the 81st Airmobile Brigade used an amphibious transport vehicle throughout the entire winter to conduct medical evacuations.
An underground tunnel nearly six kilometres long has been constructed in Donetsk Oblast for Ukrainian forces, ensuring the uninterrupted movement of personnel and vehicles, the supply of ammunition and provisions, and medical evacuation.
Source: Colonel Dmytro Pishko, Chief of the Support Forces Department at the Headquarters of the Airborne Assault Forces Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in an interview with Ukrinform
Quote: "Another achievement of our engineering ingenuity is an underground tunnel nearly six kilometres long which has been constructed between two settlements in Donetsk Oblast. The engineering structure ensures the uninterrupted and concealed movement of personnel, motorised vehicles and quad bikes, as well as the delivery of provisions and ammunition, and medical evacuation. All of this enables various units to successfully carry out their combat missions."
Details: Pishko said that thanks to another solution devised by military engineers in 2023, the 81st Slobozhanska Airmobile Brigade used an amphibious transport vehicle throughout the entire winter to conduct medical evacuations.
Quote: "The road bridge towards Lyman in Donetsk Oblast had been blown up, and the detour took a long time. Instead, using a PTS-2 amphibious transport vehicle saved us 30-40 minutes, which makes a huge difference for the wounded. The team made 86 trips in this manner over that winter."

Continuing To Defy Trump, Ukraine Strikes More Russian Oil Refineries

2026-11-04T11:51:00.779-05:00

In continued defiance of Trump's requests that Ukraine stop attacking Russian refineries, Ukrainian drones attacked one of the Kremlin's largest refineries at Yaroslavl.

Given the electoral beating Trump suffered yesterday, expect Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries to escalate. JL

The Kyiv Post reports:

A Ukrainian drone attack struck one of Russia’s largest oil refineries overnight on Nov. 3, damaging infrastructure, injuring two employees and sparking multiple fires. At least five large fires were visible across the facility. The latest attack comes as Ukraine has resumed its campaign against Russian oil infrastructure following a nearly two-week lull in reported strikes on the country’s refineries. The pause followed mounting pressure from US President Donald Trump, who urged President Volodymyr Zelensky to stop targeting Russian oil refineries and diesel production facilities.
A Ukrainian drone attack struck one of Russia’s largest oil refineries overnight on Nov. 3, damaging infrastructure, injuring two employees and sparking multiple fires, regional authorities and Russian media reported.
Yaroslavl Oblast Governor Mikhail Yevrayev said Russian air defenses shot down 124 drones over the region...
“An oil refinery’s infrastructure was damaged. Two employees of the facility sustained shrapnel wounds,” Yevrayev wrote on Telegram.

Drone debris also damaged several apartment buildings and private homes.
Footage shared by eyewitnesses showed fires breaking out at the Novo-Yaroslavl Oil Refinery, operated by Slavneft-YANOS. At least five large fires were visible across the facility, the independent Russian outlet Astra reported.

One of Russia’s largest refineries
Slavneft-YANOS is one of Russia’s five largest oil refineries. The facility processes around 15 million metric tons (16.5 million US tons) of crude oil annually and supplies fuel to Moscow and other regions across Russia’s Central and Northwestern federal districts.
Its customers include airports and facilities linked to Russia’s military-industrial complex. The refinery is owned by Slavneft, which is jointly controlled by state-owned energy giants Rosneft and Gazprom.
The Tuesday, Nov. 3 strike marks the second attack on the refinery since the beginning of autumn. On Sept. 17, a Ukrainian drone strike damaged a processing unit responsible for around 40% of the facility’s capacity, forcing it to suspend operations.

Ukraine resumes refinery campaign after 2-week lull
The latest attack comes as Ukraine has resumed its campaign against Russian oil infrastructure following a nearly two-week lull in reported strikes on the country’s refineries.
The pause followed mounting pressure from US President Donald Trump, who urged President Volodymyr Zelensky to stop targeting Russian oil refineries and diesel production facilities.
On Oct. 10, Trump publicly called on Kyiv to halt the attacks. US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner also reportedly pressed Ukrainian negotiators to suspend the strikes, warning that continued attacks could jeopardize intelligence sharing.

On Oct. 11, Trump announced an energy truce, prompting Ukraine to temporarily suspend attacks on Russian refineries.
Zelensky subsequently said Kyiv had observed a three-day pause at Washington’s request, but Moscow continued striking Ukrainian energy facilities.
On Oct. 15, Zelensky announced that Ukraine was resuming the attacks, saying the restriction had been lifted. Ukrainian drones struck the Ryazan Oil Refinery that same day.
Despite the resumption, reported attacks on Russian oil refineries subsequently fell sharply. The Friday, Oct. 30 strike on Rosneft’s Novokuybyshevsk refinery in Samara Oblast marked the first reported refinery attack in nearly two weeks.
The lull also coincided with some easing of fuel restrictions in Russia, with 15 regions lifting gasoline sales limits as supplies improved.
Ukraine steps up strikes on energy infrastructure
Since the Friday, Oct. 30 attack, Ukrainian forces have struck several more Russian energy facilities, renewing their campaign against Russia’s oil industry.
Rosneft’s Novokuybyshevsk refinery was hit on Friday, Oct. 30, followed by an attack on Bashneft’s Novoil refinery in Ufa on Saturday, Oct. 31, and Lukoil’s NORSI refinery in the Nizhny Novgorod Oblast on Sunday, Nov. 1.

On Monday, Nov. 2, Ukrainian forces reportedly struck the Samara Linear Production and Dispatch Station in the Samara Oblast, one of Transneft’s key oil transportation and distribution hubs.
Zelensky offers to halt refinery strikes for Patriot missiles
A day before the latest refinery strike, Zelensky said Kyiv could halt attacks on Russian oil refineries if Washington supplied Ukraine with additional Patriot air defense systems.
“If you need us not to attack oil refineries, give me Patriots for one month,” Zelensky told Fox News.
He also said another condition would be an end to Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

AI and Its Billionaires Were On the Midterm Ballot. And They Lost

2026-11-04T10:37:26.716-05:00

Like Donald Trump, with whom it has become inextricably allied, AI was on the ballot yesterday even though its name never actually appeared.

The arrogant disregard for the impact of data centers on electricity and water costs - to say nothing of their size and noise - as well as the billions and trillions being bandied about from which Americans well knew they would never financially benefit and might well suffer, all contributed to the historic Democratic electoral sweep. And from Elon Musk's flaunting of his wealth, to Jeff Bezos wedding to Sam Altman's and Mark Zucckerberg's smug disregard for public concerns, the faces of AI were as much an issue as the technology itself. While their money cannot be gainsaid, expect some sort of regulatory imposition to follow. JL

Calder McHugh and colleagues report in Politico:

Elon Musk spent a half-billion dollars, only to see his home of Texas go blue. Allies like Marc Andreessen, Ben Horowitz and their Silicon Valley firm — as well as OpenAI’s Greg Brockman — plowed tens of millions of dollars into super PACs that suffered major upsets. Crypto money was crushed in Ohio, Democrats who ran against Big Tech claimed decisive victories Tuesday. Democrats who won Senate races in South Carolina and Ohio cast their opponents as the faces of a data center build-out and frequently name-checked “Big Tech” as a primary American villain. Democrat gubernatorial winners — Amy Acton in Ohio, Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia, David Crowley in Wisconsin, Troy Jackson in Maine and Jocelyn Benson in Michigan — all supported a data center moratorium. “The American people rejected the alliance of Big AI and Big Government. Voters rejected Republicans in part because they were bought and paid for by AI billionaires,”

Good Wednesday morning. It’s the day after Election Day, Decoded. Wipe the sand out of your eyes.
— The main character: Elon Musk, in trouble after a blue wave routed his preferred candidates.
— David Sacks is worried about regulatory capture from top AI companies — still.
— Democrats will soon have oversight power. AI is in their crosshairs.
— The other Boldfaces: Marc Andreessen, Ben Horowitz, James Talarico, Gina Hinojosa, Amy Acton, Keisha Lance Bottoms, Jocelyn Benson, Sergey Brin, Reid Hoffman, Scott Wiener, Bharat Ramamurti, Sherrod Brown and more.
The Big Idea
ANALYSIS: THE TECHLASH IS BLUE — Democrats who ran hard against Big Tech claimed decisive victories Tuesday. For the GOP, the midterm elections may go down as the moment their candidates’ emphatic embrace of the industry came to an end.
Elon Musk spent nearly a half-billion dollars, only to see his adopted home of Texas go blue. Allies like Marc Andreessen, Ben Horowitz and their eponymous Silicon Valley firm — as well as OpenAI’s Greg Brockman — plowed tens of millions of dollars more into super PACs that suffered major upsets. Crypto money was crushed in Ohio, and AI safety groups were spiking the football on behalf of allies preparing to hold gavels in a Democratic-controlled Congress.
“Republicans didn’t need additional headwinds,” said Evan Swarztrauber, a Republican tech consultant who previously worked for FCC Chair Brendan Carr. While he noted that the Iran War and its domestic impacts were top factors for voters, he added, “the party’s association with unconstrained Big Tech and runaway AI is certainly not helping the GOP’s case.”
The results, Decoded: Tech played a starring role in several of the biggest midterm upsets.
Democrats who won Senate races in South Carolina and Ohio strongly cast their opponents as the faces of a data center build-out and frequently name-checked “Big Tech” as a primary American villain. Tech donors had backed each of their Republican opponents, viewing them as more accommodating to the data center or crypto industry. AI super PACs that spent in favor of pro-regulation candidates touted great nights. Democrat Manny Rutinel, a closely watched leading AI safety advocate on the ballot, claimed victory in a swing House seat in Colorado.
During his victory speech, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia accused the titans of Silicon Valley with digging bunkers for themselves while warning “that the artificial intelligence that they’re creating risks human extinction.” Pennsylvania Democrats Paige Cognetti, Bob Brooks and Bob Harvie all went hard after data centers in their winning House campaigns.
In Texas, where Musk has expanded his SpaceX empire, along with other ventures, some prognosticators believed Democrat James Talarico could defeat Republican Ken Paxton in the Senate. Few had hoped that Democrat Gina Hinojosa could fell incumbent Greg Abbott, who had courted data centers before ordering a pause. Both won, and Hinojosa’s stunning victory will put Big Tech on the back foot.
“The entire AI industry made this giant levered bet on the idea that they’d be able to build [data centers] in Texas,” said Sam Koppelman, the publisher of Hunterbrook Media — an investigative journalism outlet connected to a hedge fund. “This election totally changed that.”
Republicans who have been skeptical of the party’s alliance with tech are now calling out those relationships directly. Polling has long shown public opposition to data centers.
“Rather than heed those concerns, some in the administration and GOP chose to align themselves with Big Tech and corporate plutocrats,” said Daniel Cochrane, a conservative and a senior fellow at the Institute for Family Studies. “The American people reject the alliance of Big AI and Big Government.”
Computing power poses a major obstacle to frontier AI labs, and the Democrats’ big night is likely to impede new projects. Wall Street is bracing for a slowdown. Texas accounts for more than a quarter of the country’s planned data center capacity, according to research from Goldman Sachs, and Hinojosa’s call for a moratorium until the state Legislature can enact more protections goes well beyond Abbott’s eventual pause on approvals of data center permits.
Voters “want to see a stronger stance” on data centers, said Brendan Steinhauser, who runs the advocacy group The Alliance for Secure AI and was a longtime Republican political consultant. “And interestingly enough, even sometimes when Republicans did that in this election, it might have been too little, too late.”
It wasn’t just Texas. Democrat gubernatorial winners — Amy Acton in Ohio, Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia, David Crowley in Wisconsin, Troy Jackson in Maine and Jocelyn Benson in Michigan — have all supported a data center moratorium in some form.
When data center measures were on the ballot as an isolated issue, voters made their objections known, from a Los Angeles suburb to multiple Ohio cities.
That represents a major blow to the AI narratives that have powered stocks and economic growth through much of Trump’s second term. Stocks began selling off in overnight trading as Democrats picked up Senate seats in the Carolinas and across the Midwest, though by early Wednesday morning they had rallied.
With Democrats back in power in Congress, “the equity market is under downward pressure” in the near term, said Joe Lavorgna, a former adviser to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent who’s now the chief economist at SMBC Americas.
Investors have grown skeptical about the viability of existing investments in AI-related infrastructure. Democrats will take a tougher line in cracking down on the frontier labs. And in that respect, a blue wave “will let more of the air out of the bubble,” said Mohamed El-Erian, a professor at the Wharton School and chief economic adviser at Allianz.
Perhaps no man is more emblematic of last night’s Big Tech letdown than Musk. His preferred candidates across the country were swamped, losing almost everywhere, including Paxton and Vivek Ramaswamy for governor in Ohio.
The closest Democrats had to a Musk counterweight, billionaire megadonor and LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, defended his own donations by calling out Musk for spending “outrageous amounts to keep authoritarian clowns in power.”
The SpaceXSI CEO seemed to initially shrug it off online, using the results to boost an idea he’s trying to pursue. “Data centers in space looking pretty appealing right now,” he wrote on X.
Musk now will have to worry about matters closer to home — as he’s likely to be a major oversight target for a party looking to pillory tech CEOs.
“Voters rejected Republicans in part because they were bought and paid for by AI billionaires,” Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas) said in a statement Tuesday evening. “Democrats must hold them accountable instead of cashing their checks.”
Tech’s biggest spenders were expecting their biggest victory — ironically — to come in California, where Google co-founder Sergey Brin looked set to lead a group of billionaires in defeating a wealth tax.
But the rest of the evening belonged to those on the other side of the emerging fight. In San Francisco, some pro-AI regulation voters on the ground reacted to Musk’s defeat and Democrats’ dominance with glee. Outside of a party for Democratic state Sen. Scott Wiener — an early AI safety advocate who is leading in the race for Nancy Pelosi’s San Francisco congressional seat — two attendees yammered about Musk. “I love that Elon spent [all that money] for nothing,” one said.
The other mused back, “I don’t really know what he was expecting from that. More favorable data center regulations?”

Ukraine's Smarter War Strategy Is Beating Russia's Mass

2026-11-03T11:11:18.645-05:00

It doesn't always work this way, but smart is consistently beating big as Ukraine's data driven tactics and strategy are driving Russian forces back - for two months in a row now - while inflicting ever higher casualties. JL

Ryder Blackthorn reports in Frontline Signal:

Ukraine is not only asking, “Can we shoot down this drone?” It’s asking, “Can we make the next drone attack harder to launch?” That’s the smarter question. This is the part that makes the story bigger than another strike roundup. Ukraine is not only burning parts of Russia’s war machine. It’s building its own. Hit enough pieces of the chain, and Russia has to spend more time protecting, repairing, rerouting, replacing, and explaining. Russia is gambling on mass, hoping that enough bodies will finally tip the scales. Ukraine is betting on systems — the kind that outlast any single mobilization wave, that keep learning, adapting, and producing results long after the last conscript is dragged to the front.
Losses are high. Recruitment is under pressure. The front keeps demanding more bodies. So the Kremlin reaches for the thing it has always believed it can spend better than anyone else: people.
Press enter or click to view image in full size
Ukraine is taking a different path. Not because Ukraine has endless time, endless weapons, or endless people. It doesn’t. Ukraine is under enormous strain too. But the pattern is becoming hard to miss.
Russia is trying to solve the war with mass. Ukraine is trying to solve it with systems.
Russia’s Answer Is Bodies
Let’s start with the blunt part. Russia is still taking massive losses, according to Ukrainian military estimates. Ukraine’s General Staff says Russia’s total personnel losses have passed 1.4 million since the full-scale invasion began.
Those numbers are Ukrainian official estimates, not independently verified battlefield accounting, but the direction of the story is clear.
Russia is burning through men and equipment at a brutal pace.
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Estimated overall Russian combat losses as of July 27, 2026, | Credit/Source: Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense
That’s why Zelenskyy’s warning about a possible mobilization wave matters. If Putin really does plan to call up hundreds of thousands more people, it tells us something important about how Moscow sees the next stage of the war. Not cleaner tactics. Not fewer losses.
Not some brilliant new plan pulled from a golden Kremlin drawer.
More people. More pressure. More bodies poured into a machine that already eats them quickly. The war keeps demanding more from Russia than it can comfortably feed through quiet recruitment alone.
That’s where Ukraine’s strategy starts to look different.
Ukraine Is Hitting the War Behind the War
Ukraine’s Security Service said it carried out a new wave of deep strikes inside Russia and occupied territory as part of a broader 40-day campaign approved by Zelenskyy.
The reported targets included airfields, air defense systems, an offshore oil platform, a missile boat, drone warehouses, and oil infrastructure. Ukraine isn’t throwing darts at a map and hoping something expensive catches fire. One of the most important details from the latest strikes was Ukraine hitting a ground-based relay station near Zaliznyi Port. That station was reportedly used to help control Russian Geran and Gerbera drones.
It doesn’t sound as dramatic as destroying a warship or blowing up a refinery, but it matters.
Modern drones have an entire network behind them; the drone is just the part people see. Ukraine is not only asking, “Can we shoot down this drone?” It’s asking, “Can we make the next drone attack harder to launch?”
That’s the smarter question.
It’s also why the reported strike on Russia’s Rubikon drone unit matters. Ukrainian special forces reportedly struck operators from the unit in occupied Dniprorudne. Rubikon has been connected by Ukrainian reporting to drone attacks in Zaporizhzhia.
Ukrainian kamikaze drone | Credit: Getty Images
Again, the point is not just one small battlefield event. The point is that Ukraine is targeting the people and systems behind Russia’s drone war. Ukraine is not only fighting the blade. It is reaching for the hand holding it.
Crimea Is Still the Test Case
Crimea keeps showing up in these stories because Crimea is one of the clearest examples of Ukraine’s pressure strategy. Not liberation yet. Not a dramatic movie scene with flags raised over Sevastopol. But pressure. Steady, repeated, expensive pressure.
Ukraine’s military intelligence said it destroyed a Russian S-400 launcher and a 96L6 radar station in occupied Crimea on the night of July 25 to 26.
The S-400 is supposed to be part of Russia’s shield. It is supposed to help protect the peninsula, cover key sites, and make Ukrainian strikes harder. But every time Ukraine destroys a launcher, radar, depot, bridge, ferry, or fuel route, Crimea becomes a little harder for Russia to use. A fortress that needs constant repairs, replacements, escorts, and emergency workarounds starts looking less like a fortress and more like a very expensive headache with beaches. Ukraine also reportedly hit a road bridge across the Henichesk Strait, a logistics warehouse in occupied Crimea, and other military targets connected to Russia’s supply system. Each route becomes more vulnerable. Each delivery needs more planning. Each repair creates another task. Each air defense loss opens another window.

That’s how you squeeze a military position without having to storm it head-on.

Bridges, Fuel, and Warehouses Are Not Side Stories

It’s easy to treat logistics stories like background noise. A bridge here. A fuel depot there. A warehouse somewhere. Another line in another update. But that’s exactly where the real war often lives. Russia’s army does not run on speeches from Moscow. It runs on fuel, ammunition, trucks, bridges, depots, rail lines, repair units, and people who can keep all of it moving.

This week, Ukraine reported strikes on a fuel depot in Luhansk Oblast, a repair unit in Kadiivka, the bridge across the Henichesk Strait, a logistics warehouse in Crimea, and drone-control infrastructure near the coast. Take that Henichesk Strait bridge: it’s a narrow pinch point connecting occupied Crimea to the mainland. Every truck that crosses it is a truck that could be carrying ammunition, fuel, or spare parts. Damaging it doesn’t just break concrete. It forces Russian logistics to find detours, adds hours to deliveries, and creates choke points that can be watched and hit again.

Fuel keeps vehicles moving. Repair units keep damaged equipment from becoming scrap. Bridges keep routes open. Warehouses keep supplies close enough to matter. Drone relay stations keep attacks connected. Hit enough pieces of the chain, and Russia has to spend more time protecting, repairing, rerouting, replacing, and explaining.

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Ukrainian defense forces struck this site, identified as an export terminal and military infrastructure, during a drone attack. | Source: UA.News

That’s the same pressure we talked about in the last article. Every fix creates another cost. And Ukraine seems very interested in handing Russia as many costs as possible. Very rude of them, from Moscow’s point of view. Also, very effective.

Ukraine Is Building, Not Just Striking

This is the part that makes the story bigger than another strike roundup. Ukraine is not only burning parts of Russia’s war machine. It’s building its own.

One of the quieter but important stories is Ukraine developing simulators to train operators of unmanned ground vehicles. That might sound boring until you think about what it means.

Training is how technology becomes usable at scale. A country can build drones, unmanned vehicles, sensors, robots, and fancy battlefield tools, but if operators are not trained quickly and properly, the technology stays trapped in the shiny-toy stage. Ukraine seems to understand that.

The simulator project is meant to help train military personnel for unmanned ground systems and could eventually connect combat experience, electronic warfare, artillery coordination, repairs, and service systems into a shared ecosystem.

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Igor Belov is the founder and strategic advisor of L7 Simulators (L7 United), a military-tech ecosystem known for developing defense training platforms and simulation systems like “Guard” (Watchmen) and “CITADEL”. | Credit: Igor Belov — Zeta Group

That word matters: ecosystem. Not just one robot. Not just one drone. Not just one clever garage invention with wires sticking out like it lost a fight with a toaster. An ecosystem.

That’s how Ukraine survives against a bigger country. It cannot simply copy Russia’s mass. It has to use speed, adaptation, training, and technology to make every available soldier, drone, vehicle, and strike count for more. That’s the difference between building weapons and building a war system.

Then there is Freyja. Ukraine wants to launch an MVP prototype of its new missile-defense system in the first half of 2027, with ambitions for it to become part of a wider European missile-defense model.

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Ukrainian service members walk next to a launcher of a Patriot air defense system, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in an undisclosed location, Ukraine August 4, 2024, | Credit: REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko

That’s no small idea. Ukraine has spent years asking allies for more air defense, especially against Russian missiles and drones. It still needs those systems badly. Patriots, interceptors, radar, and ammunition are not optional in a war where Russia keeps hitting cities and infrastructure. But Freyja points to another layer.

Ukraine is not only asking to be protected. It’s trying to build protection — and in doing so, it is moving from dependence on foreign systems toward something that looks more like long-term strategic sovereignty. That’s a very different posture.

It says Ukraine understands the war is not ending tomorrow, and Europe’s security problem is not going back into its box just because everyone is tired.

Russia is gambling on mass, hoping that enough bodies will finally tip the scales. Ukraine is betting on systems — the kind that outlast any single mobilization wave, that keep learning, adapting, and producing results long after the last conscript is dragged to the front.

Four New Russian Salients Picked Off By Ukraine As Vivaldi Tactics Spread

2026-11-03T11:08:44.250-05:00

Applying the model that worked so well during Operation Vivaldi, Ukrainian forces have now cut off four additional Russian salients on the Donbas front, isolating the Russian units caught in those cauldrons while further disrupting Russia's plans, such as they remain. JL

Decimus reports in Daily Kos:

By virtue of Operation Vivaldi and the recently launched Operation Veles(just north of Lyman in the Kupiansk area of Kharkiv oblast) Ukraine has disrupted and largely eliminated several major Russian salients threatening the Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast. But more such salients remain. The possibility of now encircling and cutting off multiple different sized Russian garrisons in the area is quite real. Russian forces are still being surprised by seeing Ukrainian units, both Unmanned Ground Assault robots and Special Forces suddenly appear in what they had previously thought to be their safe rear. Disconnected Russian army units, now largely cut off from their logistical tail, with their backs to the Zherebets and Siverskyi Donet rivers even as Ukrainian troops threaten their rear and escape routes, make for salients that are prone to collapse
It is quite striking how quickly the collapse of the Russian northern pincer near Lyman at the hands of Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi threatens to cave in the entire Russian front aimed at the “Fortress Belt”. A cursory look at the Institute For The Study of War(ISW) map of October 8th, 2026 (see caption photo) shows at least 4 or more Russian salients ripe for the picking.

The fairly sizable Russian garrison currently bsaed near Yampil looks to be particularly vulnerable as recent reports indicate a forming Ukrainian pincer bearing down on it from two directions … north from Zarichne and south from Yampil:
Ukrainian Armed Forces Have Surrounded Russian Forces In Yampol

According to Western sources, Ukrainian troops have crossed the Zherebets River in at least two places—near Nevskoye and near Zarechny. The northern route leads into the Luhansk region—the very same one that Putin has “conquered,” it seems, about five times. But I’m more interested in the southern breakthrough, near Zarechny. Because its goal, by all accounts, isn’t simply to penetrate as deep as possible into the rear, but to outflank and encircle from the rear the main Russian base for the entire region—the city of Yampol.
Geography is key here. Yampil is situated on the right, western bank of the Zherebets River. If I’m correct about the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ plan, they’re bypassing the city along the left bank to blockade it and cut it off from its main forces. This is also indicated by the fact that, at the same time, the Ukrainian offensive continues along the Seversky Donets from west to east—along the southern flank of Yampol itself. If everything goes according to plan, Ukrainian forces will encircle the city, with two rivers flanking it from the south and north.
https://charter97.org/en/news/2026/9/19/698984

Based on the ISW report and map referenced above, Newsweek Magazine also sees what it terms as “breakthroughs” emerging as a result of the collapse of the northern pincer of Russia’s planned encirclement of the fortress cities (Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostiantynivka):
Map Reveals Four New Ukrainian Front Line Breakthroughs
“Russian milblogger claims that Ukrainian forces have crossed the Siverskyi Donets River are notable, as the river is a significant natural obstacle,” the ISW said in its latest update on Thursday.
The Washington, D.C., think tank said that the Russian sources feared that Ukrainian counterattacks in the Slovyansk and Kramatorsk directions “may have cascading effects and implications for Russian efforts to seize the Fortress Belt.”
It would mean that Russian troops gathering towards the cities would be difficult. Any push by Moscow towards Slovyansk may be “doomed” due to failure or high casualties if Russian forces cannot recapture forests south of the city of Lyman.
https://www.newsweek.com/map-four-new-ukrainian-front-line-breakthroughs-12545341

I am not quite sure if “breakthroughs” are what we’re seeing but certainly the possibility of now encircling and cutting off multiple different sized Russian garrisons in the area is quite real. Russian forces are still being surprised by seeing Ukrainian units, both Unmanned Ground Assault robots and Special Forces suddenly appear in what they had previously thought to be their safe rear, causing them severe confusion in which some have chosen to fight(and die) rather than surrender as many of their more sanguine compatriots have thought it the better part of valor to give up the fight:
Ukraine says heavy bomber drones air-dropped exploding war robots miles behind Russian lines during a secretive operation
https://www.businessinsider.com/drones-drop-robots-russian-lines-ukraine-retake-territory-2026-9
Ukraine’s 3rd Corps Advances 5 km Behind Russian Lines in Operation Vivaldi
“Today, the use of armored vehicles is effectively a special operation. It requires extremely detailed planning and the coordination of a huge number of assets,” he explained.

Before one of the assaults, the corps and brigade commands even conducted a war game to plan the operation. Biletskyi said he doubted until the last moment whether the armored vehicles could be used successfully, but decided not to stand in the way of the brigade commanders’ initiative.
The first mechanized assault helped Ukrainian forces partially encircle the settlement of Nove.
https://militarnyi.com/en/news/ukraine-s-3rd-corps-advances-5-km-behind-russian-lines-in-operation-vivaldi/
By virtue of Operation Vivaldi and the recently launched Operation Veles(just north of Lyman in the Kupiansk area of Kharkiv oblast) ADAPTIVE INDOMITABLE UKRAINE has disrupted and largely eliminated several major Russian salients threatening the Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast. But more such salients remain. The harsh winter weather on the Ukrainian steppe land is fast on its way. Already frazzled disconnected Russian army units, now largely cut off from their logistical tail, with their backs to the Zherebets and Siverskyi Donet rivers even as Ukrainian troops threaten their rear and escape routes, make for salients that are prone to collapse … and being picked off … à la carte.

$80 Billion Hedge Fund Warns of AI FOGO: "Fear Of Getting Oblieterated

2026-11-03T10:22:48.316-05:00

"Fear of getting obliterated" is a phrase that concentrates the mind. And that is the message coming from Elliott Investment Management, a large US hedge fund.

They cite all the AI warning signs that have been floated for the past year: from unrealizable projections, to slower than expected corporate uptake to circular investing. And today's US midterm elections may even add a popular underscore to the fundamental financial concerns. JL

Peter Rudegeair reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Elliott Investment Management compared the current state of the markets, laden with debt-fueled risk-taking and bubbling with hype over new technologies, to the Roaring ‘20s that preceded the Great Depression. “At present, virtually every alarm bell warning of a substantial bear market ahead is ringing,” the $80 billion hedge-fund firm wrote in an investor letter. Its October message highlighted risks building in U.S. budget deficits, persistent inflation, private-credit portfolios and artificial-intelligence hype. And it warned about market distortions caused by factors it said were more akin to gambling than investing. Regarding AI, Elliott warned about circular investments between AI model companies and makers of AI infrastructure, debt-financed capital spending and a burgeoning anti-AI movement. The market impact from challenges to the pricing of AI products or diminished expectations about the AI build-out “could be historic.”
Paul Singer’s Elliott Investment Management compared the current state of the markets, laden with debt-fueled risk-taking and bubbling with hype over new technologies, to the Roaring ‘20s that preceded the Great Depression.
“At present, virtually every alarm bell warning of a substantial bear market ahead is ringing,” the $80 billion hedge-fund firm wrote in an October investor letter reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.
While Elliott is prepping for potentially historic upheaval, its performance is lagging behind the broader hedge-fund industry.
Elliott’s returns were flat in the three months ending Sept. 30, leaving its gains the first nine months of 2026 at a little under 2%, according to the letter. That trails a composite hedge-fund index compiled by research firm PivotalPath, as well as the nearly 13% total return of the S&P 500 and the nearly 3% gains in an index of short-term Treasury bills over the same period.
Elliott’s quarterly letters are known for their doom-and-gloom commentary on the dominant themes of the day.
Its October message highlighted risks building in U.S. budget deficits, persistent inflation, private-credit portfolios and artificial-intelligence hype. And it warned about market distortions caused by factors it said were more akin to gambling than investing, including traders using zero-day options and betting on meme stocks.
Singer and Jonathan Pollock, the firm’s two chief executives and chief investment officers, run one of the hedge-fund industry’s largest pools of capital, deployed across strategies spanning activist campaigns, buyouts, distressed-debt investing and commodities trading. It avoids swinging for the fences, preferring to deliver a more consistent streak of base hits.
Currently, they wrote, they are focused on preserving their capital and being ready to strike if the market runs into turmoil.
“Over Elliott’s five-decade existence, fallow periods have existed, but these have historically been accompanied by market turbulence and followed by periods of rare opportunities,” the letter said. “Our goal is to be well positioned—protected on the downside, and with capital to deploy into the bargains—when the tide turns again.”
In the third quarter, Elliott’s unprofitable sectors included distressed debt and portfolio hedges related to gold, currencies, stocks and interest rates. Its profitable sectors included commodities, arbitrage and portfolio hedges related to credit.
The firm sees opportunities in activist investing in healthcare companies, producing energy properties and, eventually, buying from forced sellers in dislocated credit markets. Its recent activist positions include stakes in PepsiCo and Synopsys, a chip-design software maker.
Jesse Cohn, one of Elliott’s managing partners, took to X last month to lament the effect that retail, high-frequency and other traders are having on short-term price discovery.
“The stock market feels different right now because it is different. Winners keep winning, losers get pounded, earnings reactions are increasingly unpredictable and larger,” Cohn said in a post on X.
Regarding AI, Elliott warned about circular investments between AI model companies and makers of AI infrastructure, debt-financed capital spending and a burgeoning anti-AI movement. Elliott wrote that the market impact from any challenges to the pricing of AI products or diminished expectations about the AI build-out “could be historic, or at least as severe as any bear market in the last few decades.”
“So many factors have lined up to cause this great boom that it might take disruption in only one or two of them to shift this momentum into reverse, leading to a cascading, self-reinforcing unwind of this bull market and an abrupt change from FOMO to FOGO (fear of getting obliterated),” the letter said.

Russia Has Lost "Theater-Wide Initiative, Offensive Capability" Across the Frontline

2026-11-02T10:42:24.917-05:00

In an assessment that characterizes the Russian war effort as failing across the frontline, analysts took special pains to point out that the continuing Russian effort towards Dobropillia had become "strategically purposeless" because of the Kremlin's inability to generate operational breakthroughs despite significant efforts to do so. JL

New Voice of Ukraine reports:

Russian forces have lost the theater-wide initiative and offensive operational capability across significant sectors of the frontline in Ukraine. Russian forces lost more territory than they managed to seize for the second consecutive month. "Casualty rates and territorial contractions accurately reflect the ground reality, where Russian forces have forfeited the operational initiative and offensive momentum across a substantial portion of the frontline." Russian formations now lack the manpower reserves necessary to execute broad offensive maneuvers. The offensive toward Dobropillya has failed to generate breakthroughs. Analysts characterized the potential capture of the town as strategically purposeless
Russian forces have lost the theater-wide initiative and offensive operational capability across significant sectors of the frontline in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on Nov. 1.
As of analytical tracking, Russian forces lost more territory than they managed to seize for the second consecutive month — ceding 167.14 square kilometers while capturing only 139.85 square kilometers. This yielded a net Russian territorial loss of 27.29 square kilometers throughout October.
Photo: ISW

Over the past month, occupying forces achieved marginal advances strictly in Sumy and Zaporizhzhya oblasts, while suffering net territorial contractions across their primary operational focus in Donetsk.

In forward contest zones where Russian assault elements infiltrated without consolidating tactical control, Moscow suffered a net territorial loss of 76.38 square kilometers. Utilizing infiltration tactics, Russian units temporarily seized 10 settlements spanning a combined 5.86 square kilometers; however, Ukrainian forces liberated or cleared 11 settlements encompassing 3.24 square kilometers of Russian infiltration detachments.
Photo: ISW
Read also:
Ukrainian gains on Oleksandrivka axis force Russia to redeploy elite marine units — ISW
The ISW also emphasized Russia's record monthly casualty rate in October, which exceeded 54k personnel. Coupled with a declining influx of contract recruits across Russia, this attrition explains the Kremlin’s tactical shift toward concentrated ballistic missile salvos against Ukrainian cities, designed to coerce Kyiv into capitulation.
"Casualty rates and territorial contractions accurately reflect the ground reality, where Russian forces have forfeited the operational initiative and offensive momentum across a substantial portion of the frontline," the ISW observed.
According to researchers, Russian forces retain marginal offensive initiative only in the Dobropillya sector of Donetsk Oblast. Conversely, the Ukrainian Defense Forces have seized the tactical initiative along the Kupyansk, Lyman, and Oleksandrivka axes, while aggressively contesting it in western Zaporizhzhya Oblast.
The ISW noted that Russian forces sustain pressure around Dobropillya solely due to extensive manpower commitments and assault tempo. According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russian forces have launched an average of roughly 30 assaults per day along this axis since Aug. 1, 2026. Limited gains here likewise stem from infiltration missions that fail to translate into durable territorial control.
Read also:
Russian claims of encircling Dobropillya are entirely fabricated — ISW
Photo: ISW
At the same time, the aggressive offensive toward Dobropillya has failed to generate operational breakthroughs that will enable Moscow to achieve its goal of capturing the fortress cities of the Donbas before the spring of 2027, the ISW concluded. Analysts characterized the potential capture of the town as strategically purposeless for advancing toward other anchor cities in Oblast.
Operational forecasts indicate that completing the seizure of Dobropillya and mounting a subsequent advance against Kramatorsk from the west will demand immense manpower and materiel, dragging out over years if feasible at all.
The ISW also highlighted the cascading operational impact of Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi, which eliminated the Russian salient north and northwest of Lyman that was intended to serve as the launchpad for a northern encirclement of Slovyansk and adjacent Donbas hubs.
Reviewing key frontline sectors throughout October, the ISW noted that Russian forces have still failed to secure Kostiantynivka, where urban combat has dragged on for over a year following initial Russian penetration in October 2025.

Along the Huliaipole axis and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Russian command elements continued deploying motorized rifle and mechanized units as part of an operational framework targeting Orikhiv and ultimately Zaporizhzhya.

In northern Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts, Russian forces conducted limited cross-border operations aimed at widening a "buffer zone," achieving only localized tactical gains. Ukrainian forces stabilized the perimeter across these sectors despite ongoing Russian official claims that grossly exaggerate battlefield progress.
The ISW assessed that the compounding effects of Ukraine’s offensive operations Vivaldi and Veles compelled Russian planners to deprioritize the Kupyansk and Borova directions. Russian command reallocated combat power from Kupyansk to reinforce the fracturing Lyman axis while attempting to parry Ukrainian counterattacks near Borova.
"Ukrainian successes in operations Vivaldi and Veles, alongside counterattacks along the Lyman, Kupyansk, and Borova axes, likely compelled Russian military leadership to largely abandon offensive efforts toward Kupyansk and Borova, where Russian troops failed to achieve territorial gains for several months," the ISW concluded.

Russian formations now lack the manpower reserves necessary to execute broad offensive maneuvers along the Oskil River in Kharkiv Oblast. Sustained Ukrainian pressure in these sectors will likely force Russian commanders to deploy additional operational reserves simply to stabilize their current defensive lines.

How the Rebuilt 125th Mech Brigade Helped Lead Operation Vivaldi

2026-11-02T10:19:04.447-05:00

Once scorned as poorly led and motivated, with a reputation for desertions and abandoned posts, new leaders at the 125th Heavy Mechanized Brigade, rebuilt the unit, convinced 1.500 AWOL soldiers to return and became one of the salient elements in the Vivaldi offensive.

A key focus of this effort was demonstrating to skeptical troops that new leadership meant better tactics, equipment - and performance. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

One reason for Operation Vivaldi's success was that the 3rd Army Corps managed to nearly fill out at least one of its five line brigades. The 125th Heavy Mechanized Brigade's main units—three infantry and tank battalions, which make up half the overall brigade—have filled between 95% and 100% of their allotted billets. The unit not only has nearly all of its allotted infantry, it also has an abundance of heavy equipment including M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and Leopard tanks.1,500 troops who had gone absent without leave returned and rejoined. That helped drive a 430% increase in unit manning,

In four months of deft maneuver, the Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps cleared Russian troops from 277 sq km of northern Donetsk Oblast, inflicting—according to the corps—8,000 casualties on the Russian 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies and chasing the armies back across a key terrain feature, the Zherebets River.
There are many reasons for the success of the 3rd Army Corps' Operation Vivaldi—which the corps declared finished on 19 October, though elements reportedly keep pushing across the Zherebets to the river's eastern bank.
Map: Euromaidan Press
But one reason is becoming clearer. Bucking a worrying trend, the 3rd Army Corps under its former commander Brig. Gen. Andrii Biletskyi actually managed to nearly fill out at least one of its five line brigades. The 125th Heavy Mechanized Brigade's main units—three infantry and tank battalions, which make up around half the overall brigade—have filled between 95% and 100% of their allotted billets, the brigade says.
That means the brigade rolls into battle with as many as 1,500 infantry and vehicle crew. (A battalion typically has around 500 personnel.)

That's highly unusual. Almost all of the roughly 150 ground combat brigades in the Ukrainian armed forces have too few infantry. “Ukraine faces manpower shortage and still does not have a single brigade that is fully manned,” analyst Giorgi Revishvili wrote in June. Some brigades are effectively battalions given their stubbornly low manning.
The 125th Heavy Mechanized Brigade—commanded by Maj. Volodymyr Fokin—may be one exception to that truism. And if you believe the brigade's own claims, the unit not only has nearly all of its allotted infantry, it also has an abundance of heavy equipment including American-made M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and German-made Leopard tanks. (It's unclear whether they're Leopard 1s or heavier Leopard 2s.) The 125th Heavy Mechanized Brigade's line battalions should possess around 90 armored vehicles between them.

"3rd Army Corps is built different," observer Moklasen quipped. The corps grew out of the 3rd Assault Brigade, whose soldiers described it as a new army modeled on the freedom-loving Cossacks rather than on the regulations.
Graphic: Euromaidan Press
Turnaround
The brigade wasn't always so fit. Indeed, as recently as a year ago it was just 17% manned and lacked heavy equipment, the brigade says, making it more typical of the younger Ukrainian brigades including the notoriously "poor" 29th Heavy Mechanized Brigade.
The 125th Heavy Mechanized Brigade stood up in 2022 as a lightly equipped territorial defense brigade, transferred to the army in 2024 as a mechanized brigade and thereafter underwent reorganization to the new vehicle-centric heavy mechanized structure.
But it took Fokin's strong leadership to actually fill out that structure, the brigade stated. Fokin and his staff "started changing things instead of looking for excuses," according to the brigade's official Telegram account.
"Within just one year, the unit has risen to the top ranks in terms of enemy attrition, mine-laying, artillery operations, air defense, unmanned ground systems, and reconnaissance. Among heavy mechanized brigades, it has held the top spot for three consecutive months."

Success bred success. Increasingly confident in the 125th Heavy Mechanized Brigade's leadership, some 1,500 troops who had gone absent without leave returned and rejoined the fight, according to the brigade. That helped drive a 430% increase in unit manning, by the brigade's count, until its main units were essentially fully manned.
"The unit no longer fights with unarmed personnel," the 125th Heavy Mechanized Brigade reported. "Today, the brigade is active and conducting successful offensive operations. Its arsenal ranges from unmanned systems, unmanned ground vehicles and electronic warfare assets to armored personnel carriers, armored combat vehicles and artillery. It also boasts high-quality medical support, robust rear-echelon logistics, and a cadre of professional commanders."
Brigade troopers and their vehicles and drones underwent a baptism of fire as part of Operation Vivaldi. Robots led the way, but armored vehicles and infantry followed. The 125th Heavy Mechanized Brigade and the other assault and mechanized brigades under the 3rd Army Corps banner advanced steadily, exploiting gaps in the overextended 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies and pushing back the bigger Russian formations.
"Operating as part of the corps, our units are once again liberating Ukrainian territory, safeguarding their personnel and continuing to evolve," the 125th Heavy Mechanized Brigade stated. Its success, the brigade says, began with strong leadership that inspired confidence in its rank-and-file soldiers—and motivated them to stay and fight.

Just 10 AI, Tech Firms Produce Two-Thirds Corporate Profit Growth

2026-11-02T09:45:31.002-05:00

After Friday's market meltdown, which

was sparked by growing concerns about the reliability of AI projections, as well as the news that Google's search business was under attack - from its own AI service - there has, again been increasing attention on the issue of earnings concentration.

But investors seem to believe that risk is priced into the market already and that it is no longer a stealth or surprise threat. The larger question remains whether AI's financial and operational benefits can break out across the economy at scale. JL

Hannah Lang reports in the Wall Street Journal:

The boom is being driven by just 10 companies which account for two thirds of corporate profit growth. Micron and Nvidia alone account for a third of the earnings growth. If you take out those 10 all stars, the earnings growth for the S&P 500 for the third quarter drops from 30% to 10%. This is just one more way in which the stock market has come to depend heavily on the massive bet on AI; that the productivity gains and money-making ability of AI will be worth the hundreds of billions of dollars being spent. As soon as Wall Street starts to question that belief it can lead to violent shifts in the market. So the risk posed by concentrated earnings growth is the same risk underpinning the broader AI investing boom, that the technology won't be able to deliver on the massive sums US companies are pouring into it. "The fear is we're going to end up converting all these data centers into pickleball facilities."
It's earning season and Wall Street is feeling optimistic. According to FactSet, S&P 500 third quarter earnings are expected to rise 30% year over year, but there's a catch. The boom is being driven by just a handful of AI giants. Just 10 companies account for roughly two thirds of corporate profit growth according to a Dow Jones market data analysis. But how long can they keep it up? WSJ reporter Hannah Erin Lang joins us now to break down this concentration in corporate earnings and what it could mean for the market going forward. Hannah, which companies are we talking about here?
Hannah Erin Lang : So the two big ones to be aware of are Micron and Nvidia. So of course, two very big names in the chip making space. Those two companies alone account for about a third of the earnings growth we're looking at. There's a lot of other prevalent tech names in there as well. So Broadcom, SanDisk, EchoStar is one, Meta for example. And then there's actually also a few oil and gas companies, so you can attribute that to the sort of higher oil prices that we've seen. So it's a mix of some of those AI stars and then those oil and gas names that have been sort of unique beneficiaries of the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Julie Chang: And what does this extreme concentration mean for the health of the broader S&P 500? Does it distort how healthy the rest of the index actually is?
Hannah Erin Lang : Yeah. So when I took a look at this profit growth data, I though, what if we look beyond Nvidia and Micron and take out these 10 companies with the biggest profit increases? What does this look like for the other 490? And if you take out those 10 all stars, the earnings growth for the S&P 500 for the third quarter drops from 30% to about 10%, which is a decent earnings growth number. So it's not at all the case that we are looking at a bad quarter for earnings growth for the rest of the market. It might just not be as stunning a quarter for profit growth as that headline number would maybe suggest.
Julie Chang: So what risks are posed by such concentrated earnings growth?
Hannah Erin Lang : So the impression I got from the professional investors that I spoke with is that this is not at all sort of a critical threat to the stock rally. It's true that for some time folks on Wall Street have been watching for and maybe getting a little bit more anxious to see the benefits of AI taking shape beyond the tech sector, which this example of concentrated earnings growth doesn't necessarily paint that picture. I think the real risk here is that a lot of the money managers that I've spoken with have cited this 30% profit growth number as one crucial logical reason why stock prices can keep moving higher. And I think when you look a little more closely, this is actually just one more way in which the stock market has come to depend heavily on this massive singular bet on AI. The idea that the productivity gains and money-making ability of artificial intelligence will be well worth the hundreds of billions of dollars being spent on it right now, we have seen that as soon as Wall Street starts to question that belief, even just a little bit, it can lead to pretty violent shifts in the market. So the risk post by concentrated earnings growth is essentially the same risk underpinning the entire market or the broader AI investing boom right now, that the technology ultimately won't be able to deliver on the massive sums of money that US companies are currently pouring into it. One investor, put it this way, the fear is that we're going to end up converting all these data centers into pickleball facilities.
Julie Chang: How vulnerable are the remaining S&P 500 companies if earnings growth fails to broaden out? In other words, if profit doesn't start spreading to other sectors, how risky is that for the typical company on Wall Street?
Hannah Erin Lang : I don't think there's a critical risk posed to the average company in the S&P right now. It's just that they're not benefiting from these eye-popping numbers that we're seeing at some of the biggest AI players. I do think that professional investors are getting a little more anxious to see the benefits of AI take shape at these other companies, whether that's in healthcare or real estate or at banks, for example. And ideally, investors want to see that happen kind of soon. That would be the next stage of this bull market. So it's not necessarily that other companies in the S&P 500 are struggling right now. They're just not necessarily seeing the benefits that the tech companies have from the AI boom.
Julie Chang: Are you worried about market concentration? If you're a listener on Spotify, leave us a comment with your thoughts. Still ahead, why top investors aren't hitting the panic button over big tech's massive AI spending? That's after the break. Welcome back. So we've talked about how we're seeing a few companies drive big growth in the S&P 500 right now, but some investors are not worried about that concentration at all. Why is that?
Hannah Erin Lang : Yeah, I mean a lot of it has to do with if you strip out those 10 superstars' profit growth for the S&P 500 year over year is still 10%. It's not that Micron and Nvidia and some of these other top earning stocks are patching over a bad quarter for earnings and making it look good, it's that they're taking a solid quarter and making it look really incredible. One of the big drivers for earnings at Micron and Nvidia is this memory shortage, right? So that's driving very large and temporary increases in profits. And again, that's something that investors say is reflected in the share prices of those stocks. Micron and Nvidia, they have such stunning year-over-year growth and profits. It's like 1,078%, 90% in the case of Nvidia. One reason why investors aren't all that concerned with the concentration of the earnings growth is that most people on the street seem to understand that the drivers of those massive increases are temporary in nature, and that's reflected in the movement of the price relative to the earnings forecast. So I think that gives analysts a lot of peace of mind and they have said to me, "Hey, if you look at valuations, which is sort of how investors are pricing stocks relative to their earnings, valuations have actually come down for the S&P 500 over the course of the year. So that means that Wall Street isn't overreacting to this earnings growth. In fact, they're being kind of reasonable about it and investors aren't necessarily piling in on these stocks or chasing this rally in a kind of FOMO driven way. And so what I heard from my interviews is investors are acting relatively rational in the face of these really extraordinary earnings numbers, and that gives them peace of mind as well.
Julie Chang: This conversation about the concentration of growth, I'm sure reminds some listeners about the dot-com boom and bust. So are we looking at another version of the dot-com bubble or is this time different?
Hannah Erin Lang : Yeah, I think that's the trillion-dollar question and one that a lot of people in the world of tech and finance are trying to answer right now. I will say that one key difference that came up in the course of reporting this piece is when you look back at those first crop of internet focused companies that we typically associate with the dot-com boom, they just weren't making money like this. The earnings just kind of weren't there. And I've had investors point that out to me. We're talking about a different set of market leaders that could ultimately lead to a different outcome.
Julie Chang: Okay. So if you're a regular investor holding an index fund right now, should you be changing your game plan?
Hannah Erin Lang : Yeah. So I will make the disclaimer that I am not a financial advisor. I would not claim to know where the markets could go from here, but I will say that this concentration risk that we're talking about in relation to earnings growth, in relation to just how the market is made up, that conversation has been present for pretty much the entire time that we have been in this AI-driven bull market. And at any point throughout the course of that, if you turned bearish and bet against these tech stocks, you would've missed out on some pretty generational returns. So I think even the skeptics on Wall Street are keeping that in mind.

Drone Operators of Ukraine's Alpha Group 'Neutralized' 3,198 Russians In One Week

2026-11-01T11:16:38.638-05:00

The accuracy, efficiency and lethality of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces is increasing at a far faster pace than is Russia's ability to counteract them - or to replace the soldiers it is losing to their drones. JL

Dmitro Shumlianskyi reports in Militarnyi:

Drone operators of the Security Service of Ukraine’s Special Operations Center “A” neutralized 3,198 Russian soldiers in one week. Of these, 2,146 were killed, and 1,052 were wounded. Unmanned Systems set their own daily record October 21, striking 680 Russian soldiers, 320 of whom were killed. This record was surpassed just two days later, on October 23, when units of the Unmanned Systems Forces struck 701 Russian troops. As of October 31, units of the Unmanned Systems Forces had set nine out of ten records for enemy personnel struck in October 2026.

Drone operators of the Security Service of Ukraine’s Special Operations Center “A” neutralized 3,198 Russian soldiers in one week. Of these, 2,146 were killed, and 1,052 were wounded.
The SSU press service reported on this.
“This is a record for our special forces in terms of the number of enemy personnel hit over such a short period,” the SSU stated.

On October 21, the Ukrainian Defense Forces neutralized 2,250 Russian soldiers in a single day, setting a new record for the enemy’s daily losses since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
The Unmanned Systems Forces made a significant contribution to achieving the new record, setting their own daily record that day by striking 680 Russian soldiers, 320 of whom were killed. This record was surpassed just two days later, on October 23, when units of the Unmanned Systems Forces struck 701 Russian troops. As of October 31, units of the Unmanned Systems Forces had set nine out of ten records for enemy personnel struck in October 2026.
Overall, since the beginning of 2026, the Russian army has lost approximately 379,200 personnel. Since the beginning of October alone, its losses have amounted to 52,300 killed and wounded.

In particular, at least 9,000 officers have obituaries in publicly available sources. Of these: 5 lieutenant generals, 9 major generals, 127 colonels, 383 lieutenant colonels, 804 majors, 1,328 captains, 2,210 senior lieutenants, 1,990 lieutenants, and 949 junior lieutenants.

In October, Ukraine Liberated 96 Sq Km, Inflicted Record 54,400 Losses On Russians

2026-11-01T10:36:23.952-05:00

Ukrainian monthly gains accelerated at Russia's expense, as they did in September, with territory liberated and casualties inflicted exceeding previous records.

The larger implication from a military standpoint is that Ukraine has not only seized the battlefield momentum but is retaining it, with the expectation that those trends will accelerate as the Russians struggle to find a coherent response. JL

The Kyiv Post reports:

Ukrainian forces liberated 96.2 square kilometers of territory in October – surpassing Russian territorial advances by 10.4 square kilometers – while inflicting an unprecedented 54,400 casualties on the Russian military, President Zelensky announced today, Nov. 1. 69.5% of drone-inflicted Russian casualties occurred along the Dobropillia-Pokrovsk, Oleksandrivka, and Huliaipole operational axes, where loitering munitions, thermal-equipped bomber drones, and FPV strike craft disrupted enemy staging areas and armored columns before assault teams reached forward contact lines. The sharp escalation in fatal casualties over recent months reflects the increasing reliance of Russian field commands on frontal infantry charges to compensate for armor shortfalls.
The Defense Forces of Ukraine liberated 96.2 square kilometers of sovereign territory in October – surpassing Russian territorial advances by 10.4 square kilometers – while inflicting an unprecedented 54,400 casualties on the Russian military, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Sunday, Nov. 1.
Writing on Telegram, the head of state presented a monthly assessment establishing that Ukrainian forces recaptured more land than Russian occupying units seized over the same 31-day period, while extracting the highest monthly casualty toll recorded since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.
“In October, our Defense Forces of Ukraine inflicted record losses on the enemy and regained more territory than the Russian occupiers were able to capture,” Zelensky stated.

According to data presented by the president, Russian forces suffered 54,400 military personnel killed and severely wounded during the month. The monthly attrition rate also produced a single-day casualty record on Oct. 21, when Russian forces sustained 2,250 casualties within a single 24-hour cycle.
“It is important that we continue to take back what is ours,” Zelensky emphasized.
“During October, the Defense Forces liberated 96.2 square kilometers of Ukrainian land, which is 10.4 square kilometers more than the occupiers managed to capture during this time.”

The president extended formal commendations to all Ukrainian soldiers, combat brigades, and specialized service branches contributing to the counter-offensive maneuvers and frontline containment operations.
“Russia is losing. We are holding positions, liberating territory, and ensuring that every day of the war costs the aggressor as dearly as possible,” Zelensky underscored, adding that to halt these severe losses, Moscow need only choose an immediate ceasefire and genuine diplomacy.
Asymmetric impact of Unmanned Systems Forces
A decisive component of Ukraine’s battlefield efficiency in October stemmed from the operational scale of the Unmanned Systems Forces (USF).

Earlier on Sunday, USF Commander Robert “Madyar” Brovdi reported that drone detachments under his command accounted for 16,796 Russian military casualties in October – nearly 31 percent of the total 54,400 personnel losses confirmed by the president.
Over the course of the month, USF units struck 64,807 adversary targets across 255,605 combat missions, neutralizing a Russian serviceman every 159 seconds on average.
Roughly 69.5 percent of drone-inflicted Russian casualties occurred along the Dobropillia-Pokrovsk, Oleksandrivka, and Huliaipole operational axes, where loitering munitions, thermal-equipped bomber drones, and first-person view (FPV) strike craft disrupted enemy staging areas and armored columns before assault teams reached forward contact lines.
Attrition metrics
The record monthly losses in personnel and equipment compound cumulative assessments tracking the exhaustion of Russia’s conventional force generation.
A statistical study by The Economist calculated that total Russian casualties since February 2022 range between 1.4 million and 2.1 million killed and wounded, with battlefield fatalities reaching between 374,000 and 770,000.

The publication noted that the sharp escalation in fatal casualties over recent months reflects the increasing reliance of Russian field commands on frontal infantry charges to compensate for armor shortfalls.
The mounting losses have severely strained Russian domestic labor reserves, prompting Moscow to deploy thousands of North Korean troops in frontline combat while utilizing illicit overseas networks to bring North Korean forced laborers into Russian defense factories on fraudulent student visas, according to recent human rights investigations by Global Rights Compliance.
Concurrently, Ukrainian forces have coupled frontline resistance with precision interdiction against Russian military-industrial supply chains and energy hubs.
Over the final days of October, Ukrainian precision strikes destroyed an S-400 Triumf command post and a Pantsir-S2 complex valued at $70 million alongside the Kamensky solid rocket fuel plant in Rostov region, while long-range drones struck major oil processing refineries in Kstovo, Ufa, and Novokuybyshevsk.

The Low-Down

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How the Data Center Backlash May Help Biggest Tech Companies

Recon: Inside One of the Ukrainian Army's Most Dangerous Jobs

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Just 10 AI, Tech Firms Produce Two-Thirds Corporate Profit Growth

Drone Operators of Ukraine's Alpha Group 'Neutralized' 3,198 Russians In One Week

In October, Ukraine Liberated 96 Sq Km, Inflicted Record 54,400 Losses On Russians

Asymmetric impact of Unmanned Systems Forces

Attrition metrics