The Low-Down

New Ukraine-UK AI Hub Uses Battle Data To Predict, Disrupt Russian Moves

2026-04-20T03:35:00.003-04:00

Ukraine, in partnership with the UK, has created an AI war center, which is designed to predict, identify and disrupt Russian tactics and movements.

The concept is to use Ukraine's vast store of battlefield data to anticipate and then shape Russian options so that Ukraine has an ability to force them to make decisions which give Ukraine the advantage. This will not surprise corporate users of AI, whose marketing or financial strategies may be similarly created, but this will be a first war-time application. The intention is to optimize opportunities and reduce casualties while never letting the Russians have a moment's peace. JL

Olena Mukhina reports:

Ukraine, backed by the UK, is launching a Defense AI Center. At the core of the concept is that in modern conflict, decisive advantage is determined not by the volume of resources, but by the speed of decision-making. Accordingly, “A1” is focused on the practical battlefield application of AI technologies. Processing large-scale battlefield data, the objective is to transform raw information into actionable intelligence: forecasting enemy behavior, modeling possible scenarios, and generating response options. A second priority is the development of autonomous drones and ground robotic systems which operate without GPS access and under conditions of intense electronic warfare while maintaining functionality
Ukraine, backed by the UK government, is launching the Defense AI Center “A1”. According to Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, the new institution is intended to accelerate the integration of artificial intelligence into military processes.
The initiative is positioned as a tool for achieving technological superiority in conditions of high-intensity, fast-moving warfare.
At the core of the concept is the idea that in modern conflict, decisive advantage is determined not by the volume of resources, but by the speed of decision-making.
Accordingly, “A1” is focused not on experimental research but on the practical battlefield application of AI technologies.
Turning battlefield data into predictive systems
One of the center’s key functions is the processing of large-scale battlefield data.
The objective is to transform raw information into actionable intelligence: forecasting enemy behavior, modeling possible scenarios, and generating response options.
Autonomous systems beyond traditional human control
A second priority is the development of autonomous platforms, including drones and ground-based robotic systems.
These systems are expected to operate in environments without GPS access and under conditions of intense electronic warfare, maintaining functionality even when standard communication channels are disrupted.

Such platforms are envisioned to operate within interconnected networks where machine-to-machine coordination reduces the need for direct human control.
This approach is seen as a way to increase operational efficiency while reducing personnel risks

Accelerated innovation and testing cycles
Another key direction is the creation of simulation environments to test emerging technologies before deployment on the battlefield. This is intended to shorten the “idea–development–frontline” cycle and enable faster adaptation to real combat conditions.
In parallel, the center is expected to reduce bureaucratic burdens within the armed forces, particularly in procurement, financial oversight, and personnel management.
Unified hub for defense innovation
The “A1” center is designed as a coordination platform bringing together military personnel, defense companies, research institutions, and international partners. Its goal is to synchronize development efforts and reduce the time required to move from concept to operational deployment.
Strategically, the center is intended to support the systematic integration of AI as a key factor of Ukraine’s advantage in the air, on the ground, and within the broader economic dimension of warfare.

Russian Intel Being Shaped By Ukraine's Degrading of EW, Targeting Ability

2026-04-20T03:17:00.002-04:00

Like watching two computers playing chess against each other, Ukraine and Russia have been using their technological capabilities to gain battlefield advantage. But the one evidently emerging with an advantage is Ukraine.

Ukraine's systematic targeting of Russian radar, air defense and other electronic warfare assets is now giving it the ability to force the Russians to make choices which are more beneficial to the Ukrainians. This has been accomplished by the early interdiction of logistics, troop movements and other operations that are slowing Russia's ability to plan. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina

The operational picture displays a slowdown in Russian gains. Russian forces captured just 133 square kilometres in March 2026 — the lowest monthly total since June 2024. The latest figures suggest deeper Ukrainian drone operations, increased attacks on the Russians, improved defensive preparations, and the diversion of Russian military attention to southern Ukraine is imposing costs on Russia’s spring offensive tempo. On the Kharkiv axis, Ukrainian forces continued their mid-range campaign against Russian radar systems. This was part of the Ukrainian campaign to degrade Russian early warning and targeting capabilities. This reflects a maturation of Ukrainian operations. Ukraine is shaping the sensor and intelligence architecture that supports Russian air defence, artillery and aviation.
The ground war during the week was characterised by the familiar rhythm of attritional combat: large numbers of tactical engagements, incremental gains and losses measured in hundreds of metres, and Russia’s continued inability to translate local tactical gains into operationally significant advances.
In the Donetsk Oblast, the most significant development came from the DeepState monitoring group’s assessment on 18 April that Russian forces were solidifying positions in Kalynove as a staging point for an advance toward the logistical hub of Kostiantynivka. Russian drone crews redeployed from the Kursk Oblast operations were reported in the area. Russian forces are now able to operate drones deep enough to reach Kostiantynivka itself - a city of 67,000 pre-war residents that is an important Ukrainian logistics node. ISW assessed that Ukrainian forces made advances in the Kostiantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area on 12 and 13 April.
On the Sumy front, Ukrainian forces pulled back to prepared lines near Myropilske as Russian forces claimed ground in three villages in the border region. Russian small-group infiltrations continued in northern Sumy Oblast, though a Kremlin-affiliated milblogger cautioned on 13 April that Russian forces “are unable to control large areas of forest” due to frequent Ukrainian counterattacks, and that a near-term seizure of Krasnopillya was “premature.” Zelenskyy warned on 17 April that Russia would likely attempt offensives in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. This signals that Ukrainian intelligence assessments are seeing Russian ground forces assembling on multiple potential axes of advance.
The broader operational picture however displays a slowdown in Russian territorial gains. DeepState reported that Russian forces captured just 133 square kilometres in March 2026 — the lowest monthly total since June 2024. But as I noted last week that figure should not generate premature optimism. Russia has captured enormous amounts of territory since 2022 and holds approximately 20 percent of Ukraine. However, the latest figures do suggest that the combination of deeper Ukrainian drone operations and increased attacks on the Russians, improved defensive preparations, and the diversion of Russian military attention to southern Ukraine is imposing costs on Russia’s spring offensive tempo.
Source: Russia Matters.
On the Kharkiv axis of advance, ISW’s 14 April assessment noted that Ukrainian forces continued their mid-range strike campaign against Russian radar systems in Belgorod Oblast. This was part of the larger Ukrainian campaign to degrade Russian early warning and targeting capabilities along the northeastern approaches. This campaign reflects a maturation of Ukrainian operational thinking. Ukraine is actively shaping the sensor and intelligence architecture that supports Russian air defence, artillery and aviation.

Russian Refineries Struck, Burned By Ukraine After US Lifts Oil Sanctions

2026-04-19T03:03:00.001-04:00

Immediately after the US again relaxed oil sanctions on Russia, a massive Ukrainian drone attack struck several Russian oil refineries from the Black Sea to the Baltic Sea, damaging them and leaving some still burning. The US government is desperate to reduce rising gas prices as its war on Iran continues despite repeatedly failed ceasefires.

Ukraine now has the capacity to do this without US help or permission as it is developing more of its own weapons. It has been clear that it will no longer quietly accept actions which hurt Ukraine. JL

Ivana Kottasova reports in CNN:

Ukraine attacked two Russian refineries and other key oil targets overnight Saturday, just hours after the US granted Moscow another waiver on the sale of its sanctioned oil. Kyiv’s ‌drone forces commander Robert “Madyar” Brovdi said Ukraine had struck the Novokuybyshevsk and Syzran oil refineries in Russia’s Samara region, the Tikhoretsk oil terminal in the Krasnodar region, and the Baltic Sea port of Vysotsk, as well as an oil depot in Sevastopol, in occupied Crimea. The Krasnodar region Emergency Response Headquarters said a fire had broken out at the oil depot in Tikhoretsk, and were trying to bring it under control. The governor of the Leningrad region where the Vysotsk port is located, said a drone attack had caused a fire at the port
Ukraine attacked two Russian refineries and other key oil targets overnight into Saturday, officials said, just hours after the United States granted Moscow another waiver on the sale of its sanctioned oil.
Kyiv’s ‌drone forces commander Robert “Madyar” Brovdi said on Telegram that Ukraine had struck the Novokuybyshevsk and Syzran oil refineries in Russia’s Samara region, the Tikhoretsk oil terminal in the Krasnodar region, and the Baltic Sea port of Vysotsk, as well as an oil depot in Sevastopol, in occupied Crimea.
The Russian Ministry of Defense did not acknowledge the strikes, announcing only that the country’s air defenses intercepted 258 Ukrainian drones overnight.
However, Russian regional authorities reported the attacks, or their consequences. Vyacheslav Fedorishchev, the governor of the Samara region, said “strikes have been recorded” against what he called “industrial facilities” and that emergency services were on the scene.
The Krasnodar region Emergency Response Headquarters said a fire had broken out at the oil depot in Tikhoretsk, and that “224 personnel and 56 pieces of equipment” were involved in trying to bring it under control.
Aleksandr Drozdenko, the governor of the Leningrad region where the Vysotsk port is located, said on Saturday morning that a drone attack had caused a fire at the port, which he said had since been extinguished.
Brovdi made no secret of the fact that the strikes were in response to the US renewed waiver, which allows the delivery and sale of sanctioned seaborne Russian crude through May 16, accusing the US of “cynicism” and warning the move comes with a price tag of “Ukrainian lives.”
The US Treasury issued the waiver on Friday, as the Trump administration desperately tries to ease the pressure on global oil prices caused by the US and Israel’s war on Iran.

“As negotiations accelerate, Treasury wants to ensure oil is available to those who need it,” a spokesperson for the US Treasury Department said.
The decision marked the second time the administration had taken the controversial step of allowing Russia to sell sanctioned crude and petroleum products stranded at sea. The previous waiver expired on April 11 and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters as recently as Wednesday that the administration would not renew it. Yet on Friday, it did just that.
Western powers and other allies imposed sanctions on Russian energy exports because of the key role they play in financing Moscow’s war on Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy Kirill Dmitriev said on Saturday that the extension of the waiver would affect 100 million barrels of Russian oil, on top of the 100 million barrels that were covered by the previous license.

Higher oil prices and the waivers have already given a major boost to Russia’s struggling budget – the International Energy Agency said earlier this week that Russia’s energy revenues had nearly doubled in March, to $19 billion, from $9.75 billion in February.

Ukraine Wiped Out the Logistics of Rubicon, Russia's Most Effective Drone Unit

2026-04-18T03:25:00.004-04:00

Ukrainian special forces identified and then destroyed the logistics center for Russia's most effective and feared drone unit, the Rubicon group.

The storage sites were located near Mariupol, in occupied Donetsk. The strike eliminating them was launched yesterday. JL

Taras Safronov reports in Militarnyi:

Ukraine's Special Operations Forces struck the logistics base of the classified Russian Advanced Unmanned Technologies ‘Rubicon.’ The operation took place in occupied Manhush, the Donetsk region, on the night of April 17. A series of strikes on enemy targets was carried out using Middlestrike drones. Rubicon uses nearly all strike and reconnaissance drones available in Russia against Ukraine, with the exception of Shahed drones including conventional and fiber-optic FPV drones, Molniya and Lancet strike drones, ZALA, Orlan, and Supercam reconnaissance drones, as well as maritime and anti-aircraft drones.
Special Operations Forces struck the logistics base of the classified Russian Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies ‘Rubicon.’
The Special Operations Forces reported that the operation took place in occupied Manhush, the Donetsk region, on the night of April 17.
A series of strikes on enemy targets was carried out using Middlestrike drones.

A massive fire broke out at the site, which was captured on video by local residents, reports Exilenova+. Special Operations Forces struck the logistics base of the classified Russian Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies ‘Rubicon.’

The Rubicon Center uses nearly all strike and reconnaissance drones available in Russia against Ukraine, with the exception of Shahed drones.
The enemy unit, among other things, is armed with conventional and fiber-optic FPV drones, Molniya and Lancet strike drones, ZALA, Orlan, and Supercam reconnaissance drones, as well as maritime and anti-aircraft drones.

“Striking and destroying the enemy’s logistics centers significantly reduces its combat capability,” the Special Operations Forces reported.

Russia Running Out of Reserves As New Troops Deployed Less Than Loss Rate

2026-04-18T02:57:00.000-04:00

There was a time when the Kremlin announced it was deploying new reserves to take an objective and western military experts worried if Ukraine could withstand the added pressure. Not so much anymore.

Russian forces are expected to be bolstered by 20,000 this summer, primarily for its ongoing bloodbath in Donbas. But these days, 20,000 Russians is less than two-thirds of the Kremlin's monthly losses. This suggests that the new deployment is unlikely to help achieve their unrealistic goals or change the war much - and if that is the largest force it can muster, that Russia is running short of reserves. JL

The Financial Times and The Institute for the Study of War report:

Russia is preparing to dip into its strategic reserve to add 20,000 troops to its force in southeastern Ukraine. 20,000 is below Russia's monthly losses, and may still outstrip Moscow's usable force-generation surplus, since new recruitment is no longer keeping pace with attrition and deployable reserves are limited. Russian forces have repeatedly failed to meet the Russian military command’s unrealistic deadlines. Russian forces set a deadline to seize Druzhkivka, Kostyantynivka, and Pokrovsk by the end of April 2026. They have not made the inroads in Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka necessary to seize the settlements by the end of April. The deployment is unlikely to significantly alter the frontline; 20,000 soldiers are notably fewer than one month’s worth of Russian casualties.
The Russian military command is likely pulling forces from the Russian strategic reserves in order to mitigate Russian forces’ continuous inability to reach the unrealistic operational objectives and deadlines.

Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Head Major General Vadym Skibitskyi told the Financial Times (FT) on April 16 that Russia is likely preparing to dip into its strategic reserve to add 20,000 fresh troops to its force grouping in southeastern Ukraine.[13] Skibitskyi stated that a GUR report indicates that Russia is aiming to capture the entire Donbas by September 2026 and that it currently has around 680,000 soldiers currently stationed in the theater.

Skibitskyi’s statement supports Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets’ recent reports that Russian forces are deploying elements of their strategic reserve in the Oleksandrivka and Zaporizhia directions, both away from their priority effort in Donetsk Oblast.[14] Russian forces have faced several difficulties in recent months, including simultaneously increasing casualty rates and decreasing recruitment rates, that threaten the success of the Russian military command’s usual tactics of casualty-heavy, high-intensity waves of assaults and infiltration missions.[15]

While 20,000 is below Russia's monthly losses, it may still temporarily outstrip Moscow's usable force-generation surplus, since new recruitment is no longer keeping pace with attrition and deployable reserves are limited.

Russian forces have repeatedly failed to meet the Russian military command’s unrealistic deadlines.[16] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on April 10 that Russian forces set a deadline to seize Druzhkivka, Kostyantynivka, and Pokrovsk by the end of April 2026.[17] Russian forces have seized Pokrovsk they have not made the inroads in Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka necessary to seize the settlements by the end of April. The deployment, if true, is unlikely to significantly alter the situation on the frontline; 20,000 soldiers are notably fewer than one month’s worth of Russian casualties.

New UKR Combined Aerial, Ground Drone Assault Units Overwhelm Russians

2026-04-17T05:26:00.004-04:00

This winter, without fanfare, Ukraine deployed assault unis combining aerial, ground drone and infantry cadres in order to optimize the impact of its technological and tactical advantage.

The results, in southern Ukrainian oblasts, were so successful in defeating Russian units and regaining territory, that the Ukrainian military has now made such units official and broadened their use for combat brigades. JL

Volodymyr Ivanishyn reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Ukraine has introduced "a new model of warfare - drone assault units, which combine aerial and ground drones with infantry into a single system. This approach has already shown results in the south (Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts), where a large amount of territory has been liberated since February, due to the use of these latest units." Ukrainian drones carried out more than 22,000 front-line missions over three months.
Ukraine has introduced drone assault units that combine aerial and ground drones, the Defense Ministry announced on April 15.
"A new model of warfare is being introduced — drone assault units, which combine aerial and ground drones with infantry into a single system," the Defense Ministry said.
Kyiv continues to promote the production of cost-effective drones that aim to bolster Ukraine's defense and reduce human casualties.
"This approach has already shown results in the south, where a large amount of territory has been liberated since February, precisely due to the use of these latest units," the statement read.
The Defense Ministry said that tens of thousands of unmanned ground systems have already been produced and can replace people.
President Volodymyr Zelensky, on April 13, praised Ukraine's achievements in unmanned systems, saying that Ukrainian drones carried out more than 22,000 front-line missions over three months.
"In other words, lives have been saved more than 22,000 times — a robot went into the most dangerous zones instead of a soldier. This is about high technology protecting the highest value: human life," Zelensky said.
Ukraine has sought cooperation with allies, leveraging battlefield experience and domestically produced arms as invaluable assets.

On April 14, Norway and Ukraine signed a defense declaration in Oslo aimed at deepening military cooperation, including joint drone production, following talks between Zelensky and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere.
Ukraine and Germany elevated bilateral ties to a strategic partnership with the signing of a defense cooperation agreement during Zelensky's visit to Berlin on April 14.
With the U.S. and Israel at war with Iran, Ukraine has been open to helping Washington and its Middle Eastern allies, who have faced retaliation from Tehran.
Russia regularly sends out Shahed-type drones in mass attacks on Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure. Moscow first received the drone technology from Tehran, and Iran has used Shahed drones in its strikes.
With Ukraine equipped to combat Iranian drones, Kyiv has signed 10-year defense partnerships with several Gulf countries, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

Russia Hasn't Strength To Beat Ukraine's Pokrovsk Defense By Kremlin Deadline

2026-04-17T05:24:00.000-04:00

Another year, another Kremlin deadline for capturing Pokrovsk. This year's deadline is the end of April, now about two weeks away. But informed observers do not believe the Russian military has the strength to overcome Ukraine's 7th Rapid Reaction Corps and its other units who have thwarted the Russians so far and seem able to continue to do so.

The question for the Russians at this stage is whether fruitless attacks on well defended positions are worth the losses which seem primarily focused on Putin's need to appear strong rather than on any serious military objective. JL

Yuri Zoria reports in the Euromaidan Press:

Russia is targeting Druzhkivka, Kostiantynivka, and Pokrovsk for capture by April's end but does not have the strength to do so. Ukraine's defense forces are holding the northern outskirts of Pokrovsk and striking Russian troop concentrations before assault groups can form, preventing the Russians from forming assault groups. Ukraine's defenses make any Russian advances slow and costly. Moscow tried and failed to make Ukraine cede the rest of the region, using the US-pushed peace talks. (This means) Russia is unlikely to seize Ukraine's Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast in 2026 - but could make some tactical gains at significant cost.
Russian forces are pressing on two axes from occupied Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast. The 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of Ukraine's Airborne Assault Forces reported on 16 April that Ukraine's defense forces are holding the northern outskirts of Pokrovsk and striking Russian troop concentrations before assault groups can form. Infantry fighting continues in the village of Hryshyne to the northwest.
Russia's goal in eastern Ukraine is full control of Donetsk Oblast, but Ukraine's defenses make any Russian advances slow and costly. Moscow tried and failed to make Ukraine cede the rest of the region, using the US-pushed peace talks. Earlier, ISW assessed that Russia is unlikely to seize Ukraine's Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast in 2026 — but will likely make some tactical gains at significant cost.
Russian infantry hits Hryshyne's center in daily waves
The situation in Hryshyne remains tense, the 7th Corps noted. Russian forces are pushing to advance further inside the settlement. Rifle fighting continues.
Small enemy infantry groups are operating in multiple waves per day. They are trying to infiltrate the central part of the settlement and consolidate. The 7th Corps also noted attempts to push further into the built-up areas toward the settlement's northern part.
Ukraine holds Pokrovsk's north — Russia masses in the south
Ukraine's defense forces continue to hold the enemy at the northern outskirts of Pokrovsk, the 7th Corps noted. In the city's southern part, Russian forces are trying to accumulate equipment and personnel. Their aim is to create conditions for a northward push.
The 7th Corps is detecting and destroying targets throughout Pokrovsk and areas south of the city. The corps is preventing Russia from forming strike groups, it reported.
Myrnohrad, front-wide surge, and April deadline
Analytical project DeepState reported that Russian forces are also massing infantry and equipment at Donetsk Oblast's Myrnohrad, while also advancing on Hryshyne from the Pokrovsk direction.
Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi noted a Russian offensive surge along almost the entire 1,200 km contact line, driven by favorable weather. The Oleksandrivske, Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, and Lyman directions are the hottest, Syrskyi noted.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned earlier that Russia was targeting Druzhkivka, Kostiantynivka, and Pokrovsk for capture by April's end. Russia did not have the strength to do so, Zelenskyy said.

OpenAI's $852 Billion Valuation Questioned By Investors Amid Strategy Shift

2026-04-17T05:23:00.000-04:00

As a potential IPO approaches, questions are being raised about OpenAI's valuation. The reason is that Anthropic's Claude is emerging as the superior model for business users, especially the enterprise market. And while OpenAI's ChatGPT remains immensely popular with consumers, the reality is that many of them are attracted to its lowest-capability free model.

OpenAI appears somewhat panicked by this development. It fears both the financial and reputational cost of Anthropic's surpassing it as the more sophisticated AI. Its solution is to try to continue to build on its consumer success while also competing more seriously with Anthropic, but many investors doubt its ability to do so. The scrutiny of its valuation stems from both Anthropic's competitive challenge and the two-pronged strategy some believe will sap resources, weakening both efforts. JL

Ravikash Bakiola reports in Seeking Alpha:

OpenAI's $852B valuation is under scrutiny from some backers as the company shifts its focus to the enterprise ‌market to compete with Anthropic. Recent deals, initiatives, and abandoned projects are aimed at reorienting the company around a new strategy: defend ChatGPT’s dominance among consumers while taking on Anthropic in the higher-margin market for corporate AI services. Data from secondary marketplaces for both companies' stock indicate demand is higher for Anthropic, and, for the first time, buyers are placing a premium on the Claude chatbot maker over OpenAI. (But) the changes could leave it vulnerable to Anthropic and a resurgent Google. "You have ChatGPT, a 1bn-user business growing 50-100% a year, why are you talking about enterprise and code? It’s a deeply unfocused company."

OpenAI's (OPENAI) $852B valuation is under scrutiny from some of its own backers as the company shifts its focus to the enterprise ‌market to compete with Anthropic (ANTHRO), the Financial Times reported.
Several recent deals, initiatives, and abandoned projects are aimed at reorienting the company around a new strategy: defend ChatGPT’s dominance among consumers while taking on Anthropic in the higher-margin market for corporate AI services, the report added.
Some OpenAI investors told the news outlet the changes could leave it vulnerable to Anthropic and a resurgent Google, while preparing for a potential IPO as early as this year, the report noted.
"You have ChatGPT, a 1bn-user business growing 50-100 per cent a year, what are you doing talking about enterprise and code?" said one early backer of OpenAI, according to the report. "It’s a deeply unfocused company."
OpenAI did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Seeking Alpha.
Microsoft (MSFT)-backed OpenAI recently raised $122B in funding, valuing it at $852B, from investors, including SoftBank (SFTBY) (SFTBF), Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia Capital, and Thrive Capital.
"The suggestion that investors are not supportive of our strategy defies the facts," said OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar, the report noted. "Our . . . raise, the largest in history, was oversubscribed, completed in record time and backed by a broad set of global investors, reflecting strong conviction in both our direction, current business momentum and long-term value."
The success of Anthropic has led to a strategic rethink. The Claude AI chatbot maker — which is backed by Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet's (GOOG) (GOOGL) Google — saw its annualized revenue surge from $9B at the end of 2025 to $30B at the end of March.
Anthropic’s business appears to have surpassed OpenAI, which reached $25B in annualized revenue in February, though the companies use different accounting methods to book revenue, making direct comparison difficult, the report added.
OpenAI’s Chief Revenue Officer Denise Dresser accused Anthropic of overstating their revenue “by roughly $8bn” by “grossing up [revenue] share with Amazon and Google,” in a note to staff on Sunday, as per the report.
Dresser noted that Anthropic’s “coding focus gave them an early wedge” in the race for enterprise customers, as per the report. But, she added that “the market is ours to win."
Friar said the company still had the support of its investors, given that OpenAI closed the biggest private fundraising of all time. The CFO said the $122B raising “gives us a lot of flexibility at this moment in time. I view my job as always [to create] max flexibility, max optionality for the company, because then we can make more strategic decisions.”
One investor who has backed both companies said that to underwrite an investment in OpenAI’s recent round, they would have to assume an IPO valuation of $1.2T or more, the report added.
Data from secondary marketplaces that trade proxies for both companies' stock indicate demand is higher for Anthropic, and, for the first time, buyers are placing a premium on the Claude chatbot maker over OpenAI, the report noted.
Last week, it was reported that OpenAI told investors that its early efforts to increase computing resources gave it a vital advantage over rival Anthropic.

Ukraine Has Fire Control Over All Major Russian Logistics Routes In Donetsk

2026-04-16T10:28:00.003-04:00

Mundane, yet extraordinary. Ukrainian forces now have all major Russian logistics routes in occupied Donetsk under fire control, primarily from drones.

As a result, any vehicle or troop concentration spotted can be destroyed. Nowhere is safe, no matter how far from the front line. This is a significant strategic achievement for the Ukrainians. JL

Stanislav Pohorilov reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Ukraine's 1st Azov Corps has taken control of all Russian logistics routes in occupied Donetsk and (can) now destroy any targets moving along them in the 'deep operational zone.' UAV operations along the routes of Zuhres, Andriivka, Starobesheve, Horlivka, Lysychansk and the Donetsk ring road indicate the ineffectiveness of Russia's airspace control system. "Not long ago, the occupiers felt completely safe there. But now all military targets moving along roads around Donetsk will be destroyed"
The 1st Azov Corps of Ukraine's National Guard has said it has taken control of all Russian logistics routes near occupied Donetsk and will now destroy any targets moving along them.
Source: 1st Azov Corps of Ukraine's National Guard
Quote: "Strike UAV pilots are hunting Russian logistics in the deep operational zone. Drones are keeping all logistics routes around Donetsk under control."

Details: The military said active UAV operations along the routes of Zuhres, Andriivka, Starobesheve, Horlivka, Lysychansk and the Donetsk ring road indicate the ineffectiveness of Russia's airspace control system.
"Not long ago, the occupiers felt completely safe there. But now all military targets moving along roads around Donetsk will be destroyed," the Corps said.
Background: On 15 April, Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, said that Russian forces have intensified offensive operations along almost the entire 1,200 km front line following changes in weather conditions, while Ukrainian defenders are engaged in active defence

Russian Air Defenses Are "Collapsing" As Ukraine Targeting Decimates Them

2026-04-16T09:26:00.005-04:00

Ukraine has destroyed 492 Russian air defense systems - both mobile and stationary - in the past nine months. This was not just opportunistic. It was part of a strategy to degrade Russian air defenses in order to then enable the decimation of the targets - troop concentrations, logistics, headquarters - that the air defenses were protecting.

The success of the 2026 Ukrainian counterattacks against Russian defenses is a result, in large measure, of that quiet, systematic and relentlessly lethal strategy execution. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

That the Russians couldn't stop Ukrainian jets from lobbing GBU-39s at Donetsk airport's drone storage facility, a target 40 km inside Russian-controlled territory underscores how badly Ukrainian forces have degraded Russian air defenses in recent months. Systematically striking Russian radars, surface-to-air missile batteries and mobile air defense systems all along the front, Ukrainian forces are “collaps[ing] the layered defensive architecture that the Russian integrated air defense doctrine depends upon. The strikes on Russian air defenses—at least 492 of them between June and early March—are part of a carefully scripted plan. Destroying air defenses faster than the Russians can replace them has the effect of “facilitating strikes on more critical targets deep within Russian territory,”
The Ukrainian air force struck a reported Russian drone storage site at the Donetsk airport in eastern Ukraine on 14 April, apparently heavily damaging the site and potentially suppressing Russian drone strikes until new production can make good whatever drones the Russians lost in the strike.
That the Ukrainians targeted a Russian drone depot isn't surprising. Ukrainian forces frequently target Russian drones before they even reach the front line. There were at least two major raids on drone storage at Donetsk airport last month.
What's surprising is how the Ukrainians targeted the depot just northwest of Donetsk city, some 40 km from the front line. According to one observer, the attack involved a mix of SCALP-EG cruise missiles and GBU-39 glide bombs.
The 1,300-kg, French-made SCALP-EG, launched by the Ukrainian air force's small fleet of ex-Soviet Sukhoi Su-24 bombers, ranges hundreds of kilometers under inertial and satellite guidance. It's not terribly difficult for a missile-armed Su-24 to hit Donetsk airport from a launch point safely inside Ukrainian-controlled air space, even the Su-24 is flying low to avoid detection.

The 130-kg, American-made GBU-39 is another matter. The satellite-guided bomb can range more than 100 km on its pop-out wings—but only when dropped from high altitude. From low altitude, the bomb may range just 40 km or so.
For the Ukrainian air force to hit Donetsk airport with GBU-39s means one of two things. Either the launching planes few high and fast as they vectored toward the airport. Or they flew low—and got close.
Either possibility points to a serious problem for Russian air defenses in the east. A plane flying at high altitude should be an easy target for enemy air defenses. By the same token, a plane flying low directly over territory the enemy controls should also be an easy target.
Ukrainian and American contractors have modified the Ukrainian air force's Soviet-made Sukhoi Su-27 and Mikoyan MiG-29 fighters to carry GBU-39s. The air force's ex-European Lockheed Martin F-16 fighters are also compatible with the highly accurate bombs.
Degraded air defenses
That the Russians couldn't stop Ukrainian jets from lobbing GBU-39s at a target 40 km inside Russian-controlled territory underscores how badly Ukrainian forces have degraded Russian air defenses in recent months.
Systematically striking Russian radars, surface-to-air missile batteries and mobile air defense systems all along the 1,200-km front line of Russia’s 50-month wider war on Ukraine, Ukrainian forces are “collaps[ing] the layered defensive architecture that the Russian integrated air defense doctrine depends upon to function,” according to an in-depth investigation by Tochnyi.info.

The strikes on Russian air defenses—at least 492 of them between June and early March—are part of a carefully scripted plan. Destroying the right air defenses faster than the Russians can replace them has the effect of “facilitating strikes on more critical targets deep within Russian territory,” Tochnyi.info explained.
The 14 April raid on Donetsk airport is just one of the operations facilitated by the wider Ukrainian campaign targeting Russian air defenses. The Russians are increasingly vulnerable to ever-deeper Ukrainian air, missile and drone strikes because they're losing air defense systems faster than they can replace them.

One objective of the Ukrainian deep strike campaign is to suppress Russia's own campaign of deep strikes targeting Ukrainian cities. There's evidence the Ukrainian effort is working.
Just nine months ago, Russia was flinging as many as 2,000 Shahed one-way attack drones at Ukrainian cities every week. Air defenses took down 90% of the drones, but the 10% that got through inflicted heavy damage.
And there was seemingly no in sight. The trend line pointed to Russia producing potentially 7,000 Shaheds a week—a volume of drones that could’ve overwhelmed Ukrainian defenses.
But then, without many outside observers noticing, something changed. In recent months, the pace of Shahed strikes has flat-lined, according to one analysis.
Yes, the Russians still pummel Ukrainian cities with 1,500 or more Shaheds a week. But there’s no longer a noticeable trend toward more Shahed attacks. Possibly because the Ukrainians are blowing up more Russian drones on the ground.

Apple Could Win the AI Race By Reaping Reward of Other Firms' Spending

2026-04-16T09:05:00.001-04:00

At various times during the past two-plus decades of the dotcom-mobile-AI era, references to another fabled Bay Area enterprise, Levi Strauss, and its enduring business model have re-emerged. The theory was that while lots of aspiring gold miners wasted time and money digging for elusive wealth, Levi Strauss got rich by selling them what they needed: shovels, tents, pans, food - and pants.

Many tech or tech-adjacent firms yearned to be the supplier who coined it without having to do the hard work of actually digging, eg, writing code, fighting off avaricious competitors, etc. Ironically, if not surprisingly, it turns out that the big tech company closest to a latter-day Levi Strauss is none other than one of the originals: Apple. The Levis-Apple AI corollary is that while Microsoft, Amazon, OpenAI, Anthropic et al spend gazillions on data centers, talent, etc, Apple is just collecting tolls without having to spend as much because all the smart guys need the App Store gateway to get to their customers. Somewhere, ol' Levi is smiling and snapping the suspenders holding up his jeans. JL

Dan Primack reports in Axios:

Apple isn't burning cash to buy GPUs for training AI models and processing prompts. Nor is it investing huge sums in OpenAI or Anthropic, as are rivals Amazon and Microsoft. (But) Apple may reap the rewards of everyone else's spend by selling high-end consumer hardware that will become even more essential as AI becomes more ubiquitous. AI advancements could lead to shorter upgrade cycles, while Apple's reputation for enhanced privacy could become an enhanced selling point. All the while, "taxing" (AI-specific) firms via the App Store. It doesn't matter to Apple which app gets used most, so long as it's being used. This is an argument that more investors, including VCs with big AI positions, have been whispering about.
Apple isn't burning mountains of cash to buy GPUs for the sake of training AI models and processing prompts.
Nor is it investing huge sums in frontier labs like OpenAI or Anthropic, as are rivals like Amazon and Microsoft.
Why it matters: Apple may reap the rewards of everyone else's spend. Success from the sidelines.
Apple's playbook: Keep selling high-end consumer hardware that will become even more essential as AI becomes more ubiquitous.
AI advancements could lead to shorter upgrade cycles, while Apple's reputation for enhanced privacy could become an enhanced selling point.
All the while, "taxing" the frontier labs via the App Store. It doesn't matter to Apple which app gets used most, so long as it's being used.
Behind the scenes: This is an argument that more and more investors, including some VCs with big AI positions, have been whispering about.
Zoom in: OK, it's not a sure bet.
For starters, Apple does want/need to improve Siri. If it ultimately uses Google's Gemini models, the capacity will need to come from somewhere.
There's also OpenAI's efforts to create its own branded hardware, designed by longtime Apple star Jony Ive. If successful, it could dent the iEmpire — or maybe even end the primacy of apps.

Wildcard: It's possible that the our primary AI devices won't be mobile. They'll be something else, running agents. What's in our pocket will be used more like the original iPhone — talk, text, and listen to music. Keep selling high-end consumer hardware that will become even more essential as AI becomes more ubiquitous.AI advancements could lead to shorter upgrade cycles, while Apple's reputation for enhanced privacy could become an enhanced selling point. All the while, "taxing" the frontier labs via the App Store. It doesn't matter to Apple which app gets used most, so long as it's being used. This is an argument that more and more investors, including some VCs with big AI positions, have been whispering about.
In this case, Apple remains likely to benefit. As Axios' Ina Fried notes: "Lots of people are coding on their Macs and the Mac mini is sold out as enthusiasts use them to run agents like OpenClaw."
The bottom line: Apple's Tim Cook seems to be echoing the wisdom of Joshua, a rogue AI from the 1983 film War Games: "Strange game. The only winning move is not to play."

Ukraine's 2026 War Gains, Most In 3 Years, Due To "Tactical Dominance"

2026-04-15T11:22:00.002-04:00

There are two especially significant implications in this. The first is that the Ukrainians have become far more sophisticated in planning and executing their attacks. The key point is that experts are saying the recent Ukrainian gains are not happy accidents, or luck; they are the result of utilizing better information to make quick adaptive decisions creating opportunistic advantages for which the Russians are unprepared to respond.

The second implication is that the general tone of reporting about Ukraine's battlefield performance compared to that of the Russians has become far more positive. This is a noticeable change from the reporting of the past few years, which tended to give the Russians the benefit of the doubt. And it reflects the growing realization that the Ukrainians have become a far more formidable force, one which the Russians appear incapable of surmounting. JL

Sinead Baker reports in Business Insider:

Ukrainian forces are seeing battlefield gains not achieved in years. "The Ukrainians are gaining more ground, notably, in February, more territory than the Russians. It's not accidental. It's not circumstantial. The reasons for it," attributed to planning and degradation of defenses to set successful attacks. Ukraine is now "demonstrating more sophisticated and deeper capability for operational planning and for preparing the battlefield and then executing." Ukraine made its Delta system - an online battle management system that shares real-time data - mandatory for all combat units. That has helped them think beyond defeating the Russian forces immediately in front to "the deeper depths of the battle and how to degrade the Russians there."
Ukrainian forces have been substantially slowing Russia's advance and are seeing fresh battlefield gains not achieved in years, warfare experts said.

"The Ukrainians are gaining more ground," George Barros, a conflict analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington DC-based think tank, told Business Insider.
"Notably, in February, the Ukrainians liberated more territory in the theater than the Russians seized," he said.

"The last time we had seen Ukrainian forces make more ground than the Russian forces seized was in 2023" during its large but limited counteroffensive, he said. "This is new."
Ukraine's gains are not sweeping, but they mark a shift. The progress has been concentrated in specific areas, not across the whole front line, where Russia has continued to capture more territory in recent months. But Ukraine has also been able to slow Russia's rate of advance, ISW told BI.
"It's not accidental. It's not circumstantial. There are reasons for it," Barros said, attributing the progress to planning and the degradation of defenses to set the stage for successful attacks.

Ukrainian military officials have reported gains in the last two months, particularly around Oleksandrivka, a settlement in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region where Ukraine launched a counteroffensive push in January.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on March 17 that over the 30 days prior, Ukrainian forces had retaken more territory than Russia's army had captured. He said earlier that Ukraine had retaken more than 177 square miles this year.
Ukraine has seen battlefield gains in the Donetsk region. Jose Colon/Anadolu via Getty Images
Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said later last month that his forces had liberated more than 185 square miles in the Oleksandrivka direction alone.

ISW's Geospatial Intelligence team told Business Insider that Ukrainian forces had made net gains of more than 38 square miles in specific assessed sectors between December 1 and March 25.
That number, the team explained, "reflects isolated smaller operational areas of the frontline that Ukraine has counterattacked and made gains in within the time period, most significantly in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast area."
Last year, Ukraine liberated territory, such as in the strategic city of Kupiansk, but lost more ground in other areas. "The amount of retaken Ukrainian territory was negative," an ISW spokesperson shared. Across the entire front line, Russia seized a total of more than 1,891 square miles last year, including about 27 square miles assessed as infiltrations rather than fully controlled territory.

And while Russia has still taken much more territory in total than Ukraine has this year, Ukraine has increased its rate of gains while slowing Russia's/
ISW said that from December 1 last year until March 25 of this year, Russian forces seized more than 330 square miles, more than 20 square miles of which were assessed as infiltrations.
That's more than Ukraine in the same period, but "those numbers do not tell the full story," an ISW spokesperson told Business Insider.

Russia's daily rate of territory gain is just over one square mile a day, compared to over five square miles a day last year. Ukraine has more momentum, increasing its rate of daily gains by more than 1.8 square miles a day.
ISW said in an assessment last month that "Ukrainian forces have recently made the most significant gains on the battlefield since Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast in August 2024 and liberated the most territory in Ukraine itself since the 2023 counteroffensive."
ISW figures are based on assessments of publicly available information, Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting, commercial satellite imagery, and other geospatial data.

The think tank said on Tuesday that Ukraine's actions were likely impeding Russian efforts to advance, and that Ukrainian forces still had momentum in multiple areas.
Ukraine has become better at planning and exploiting
Barros attributed Ukraine's gains to its "maturing in their operational planning." He said Ukraine was now "demonstrating a more sophisticated and a deeper capability for operational planning and for preparing the battlefield to set the condition for exploits and then executing those exploits."
Ukraine notably made its Delta system — an online battlespace management system that lets Ukraine view and share real-time battlefield data and make decisions — mandatory for all combat units.

That has helped a "maturation of command" that allows Ukraine to think beyond defeating the Russian forces immediately in front of it and also think "about the deeper depths of the battlefield and how do we degrade that," Barros said.
"So really, this maturation of the command is working." He said the Delta system is having effects. "These things take time, but it's happening. And these reforms are what are slowly but surely enabling some of these Ukrainian successes that we're seeing reported out on the day-to-day now."
Barros said that Ukraine has also been intensifying its intermediate-range strikes to hit Russia's positions and logistics that support its front-line forces. Doing that from late last year has been "degrading the Russian forces in the south," he said.

He said the progress Ukraine made across February and March had been months in the making, with planning starting in late 2025.
Ukraine has also ramped up its attacks on Russian air defense systems. Barros said that meant the area Ukraine was attacking into "had already been softened and weakened and degraded at depth for a couple of months ahead of the February ground attacks."
Ukraine has become even better at using drones on the battlefield, a war expert said. Nikoletta Stoyanova/Getty Images
He said Ukraine's forces were also able to achieve more tactical dominance with drones, using them in areas where they had degraded Russian forces, including targeting Russia's Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies' "Rubicon," a military unit focused on drone warfare.

While some observers have credited decreased Russian access to Starlink, the satellite internet provided by Elon Musk's SpaceX, for Ukraine's battlefield gains, Barros said that narrative is "oversimplified."
He said it was an "unexpected accelerator that further catalyzed Ukrainian success on this campaign," but argued Ukraine would have likely still made these gains without it.
"In fact, the Ukrainians were planning to do this. They were preparing to do this for months," he said. "The Starlink thing was sort of just a happy accelerant that further catalyzed the success in a very convenient and good way, but Starlink actually wasn't the driver of this."

29 Russian Soldiers Killed In Attempted Sumy Gas Line Infiltration

2026-04-15T11:02:00.006-04:00

A rational military strategist would be forgiven for assuming that - if his enemy had tried to use underground gas pipelines to infiltrate behind an opponent's positions, but had failed not just once, but every time the tactic was attempted - they would then draw the conclusion that it was an interesting idea but one from which they should move on and try something else. Such a rational strategist, though, would evidently not get very far in the Russian army.

The Russians tried to infiltrate Ukrainian positions in Sumy oblast using just such a gas pipeline. That they had tried to use the very same pipeline before - and failed - does not seem to have deterred them. And once again, the hapless Russian soldiers forced into this attack were quickly spotted. 29 of them were then killed. JL

Tanya Myronyshena reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Twenty-nine Russian soldiers attempted to infiltrate Ukrainian rear positions via a gas pipeline in Sumy Oblast but were detected and killed, Ukraine’s 71st Airmobile Brigade reported April 14. It was not the first such attempt in the area, with Russian forces using the same route before despite heavy losses. Russian forces have used large pipelines on several occasions in their war against Ukraine, including during the battle of Avdiivka, Sudzha in Kursk Oblast, and more recently, Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast. "The real goal of the occupiers appears to be ‘self-demilitarization,’"

Twenty-nine Russian soldiers attempted to infiltrate Ukrainian rear positions via a gas pipeline in Sumy Oblast but were detected and killed, Ukraine’s 71st Separate Airmobile Brigade of the Air Assault Forces reported on Telegram on April 14.
According to the brigade, the group tried to exploit poor weather conditions and limited visibility to breach Ukrainian defenses.
It was not the first such attempt in the area, with Russian forces reportedly using the same route before despite sustaining heavy losses.
"The real goal of the occupiers appears to be ‘self-demilitarization,’" the brigade added.
Russian forces have used large pipelines on several occasions in their war against Ukraine, including during the final stages of the battle of Avdiivka, Sudzha in Kursk Oblast, and more recently, Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast.
Built during the Soviet era, the pipelines are used to infiltrate behind Ukrainian positions, and are often surprisingly difficult to destroy even after detection.
This latest attempt comes amid continued pressure along the state border with Sumy Oblast, where Russian forces have been probing Ukrainian defenses, turning much of the border area into a contested grey zone.
On April 13, Ukrainian forces withdrew from positions near Myropilske in Sumy Oblast to a more defensible line.

Russian forces have also advanced in small settlements further north, including Yunakivka and Andriivka, while increasingly deploying FPV drones capable of striking closer to Sumy.

As Russia's 2026 Offensive Fails, Ukraine Fortress Belt Is Kremlin Mirage

2026-04-15T10:44:00.001-04:00

Given that Russia's combined winter and spring offensives have resulted in what amounts to a net gain for counterattacking Ukrainian forces, the Kremlin's desire, still, to take all of Donbas, especially the heavily defended 'Fortress Belt" cities appears even less realistic than it was previously, when Ukraine was not doing as well as they are this year.

The Belt is a huge area, seven times the size of Pokrovsk, which Ukraine has spent 11 years fortifying. Some estimates suggest that a serious Russian attempt to take it could cost the Kremlin another million casualties. Not that anyone thinks Putin or his claque care about the lives of ordinary Russian soldiers, but the Russian army is already showing signs of strain from the current casualty rate. This is why the Kremlin continues to demand in 'peace negotiations' that Ukraine surrender the Fortress Belt: because they realize that they are incapable of taking it in battle. JL

The New Voice of Ukraine reports:

In the first three months of 2026, Ukraine liberated more territory than Russia captured for the first time since 2023. If this trend continues, Russia's ability to capture the fortress belt may be completely (out of) the question. The "fortress belt" refers to four cities in Donetsk Oblast (Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, Slovyansk, Kramatorsk).This belt is 50 km long, It is more than four times the area of Bakhmut and seven times the area of Pokrovsk. It is optimal for defense in all topographical and geographical ways. (Plus) "Ukraine has spent the last 11 years investing time, money, and effort fortifying the fortress belt. The high casualties Russia suffered in Bakhmut or the campaign to capture Pokrovsk will pale in comparison to those it will suffer to capture the belt - if we assume Russian forces will (even try)."

While Moscow demands the surrender of Ukraine's Donbas "fortress belt" — Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, Slovyansk, and Kramatorsk — it is incapable of capturing Donetsk Oblast in 2026, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on April 14.
ISW experts voiced these conclusions in their special analytical report on the importance of the Donbas fortress belt for Ukraine's defense and the risks of its capture by Russians.
19% of Donetsk Oblast territory now controlled by Ukraine remains the foundation of its defense in the east and is critically important for this, analysts highlighted.

The ISW recalled that the term "fortress belt" of the Donbas refers to an agglomeration of four large cities in Donetsk Oblast (Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, Slovyansk, Kramatorsk) and satellite settlements stretching from north to south along the H-20 Kostyantynivka-Slovyansk highway.
This belt is 50 km long, and prior to the full-scale invasion, its combined population was over 380,000 people. "Ukraine has spent the last 11 years investing time, money, and effort into fortifying the fortress belt and creating significant defensive infrastructure in and around these cities," the Institute for the Study of War emphasized.
Donbas fortress cities on the map of population density in the Ukraine's East / Infographics: ISW
Specialists added that from a military perspective, this "fortress belt" is optimal for defense in almost all necessary topographical and geographical characteristics, from the advantages of urban areas for defenders to the features of the natural terrain.
As the experience of previous years of the full-scale invasion has shown, attempts to capture urban areas are the most exhausting and slow for the Russians.
"The high casualties Russia suffered in the battle for Bakhmut or the campaign to capture Pokrovsk will pale in comparison to those it will have to suffer to capture the fortress cities — if we assume at all that Russian forces will succeed," the ISW stated.
They recall that the urban area of the four largest unoccupied cities in the Donbas is more than four times the area of Bakhmut and more than seven times the area of Pokrovsk.
Natural water obstacles also play a significant role in this defense line, as the northern flank of the fortress belt is protected by the Siverskyi Donets and Oskil rivers. In particular, the bend of the Siverskyi Donets leaves the occupiers with only a frontal attack option from the east on the defensive fortifications of this sector.
The map of Ukrainian rivers / Infographics: ISW
The terrain also favors the Ukrainian Defense Forces in these sectors of the front. The ISW recalled that the eastern part of Ukraine is generally mostly flat, but the belt of fortress cities is located in an area with steeper slopes, which provides Ukrainian defenders the ability to rely on tactical heights that facilitate defense. This is also crucial in modern drone warfare, as radio-controlled drones rely on communication equipment placed on high ground to maximize signal.
Map of terrain in Ukraine's East / Infographics: ISW
Ukrainian field fortifications in these sectors, built over the last 11 years, are a multi-kilometer and extensive network of combat positions, anti-vehicle trenches, rows of "dragon's teeth," barbed wire, and minefields that are convenient for defense and enhance the aforementioned natural advantages of the terrain.
In contrast, the terrain further west — the territory that would become the new front line if Ukraine lost the Donbas fortress belt — is much less suited for building a defense line. First, this loss would require Ukraine to equip new fortifications in the south of Kharkiv Oblast and the east of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, but the physical characteristics of this terrain and the specifics of its settlement are poorly suited for defense. Here is a series of reasons voiced by ISW analysts:

The terrain west of the fortress belt, particularly in southern Kharkiv Oblast, is sparsely populated. There are fewer settlements capable of serving as a stronghold for securing the Ukrainian defense line, and fewer roads to support Ukrainian logistics. Most settlements in this area are small agricultural hamlets and villages. Within 100 kilometers of the fortress belt, there are only 18 mid-sized cities controlled by Ukraine. The largest of these is Lozova, south of Kharkiv (pre-war population of 53,000), but it is located more than 80 km from the Donbas fortresses, and it is isolated and far from other cities with which it could form a defense line.
The population density and the location of cities in the areas to the west create a geographically vulnerable gap that Russian troops could more easily exploit if Russia controlled the Donetsk Oblast fortress belt. The "corridor" between Lozova and the forest near Izium is particularly vulnerable, ISW analysts assume.
This area also has significantly fewer water obstacles that could help the Ukrainian Defense Forces. Consequently, the Russians would gain greater freedom of movement and find themselves on the western bank of the Siverskyi Donets River and several of its tributaries, which would be optimal for the occupiers to continue their advance westward.
West of the fortress belt, Ukraine's territory is mostly flat and leads to the Dnipro river Lowland — a flat, open steppe and floodplains ideal for the rapid movement of large forces. If Russian troops captured the entire Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine would have to defend from this lowland, giving the Russians a height advantage.
Ukraine's territory is mostly flat to the West from Donbas fortress cities / Infographics: ISW
Therefore, the Donbas fortress belt provides Ukraine with a unique combination of factors that facilitate defense, ISW analysts summarized. If Russia gained control over this sector, the occupying army would take advantageous positions to conduct further offensive operations on vulnerable terrain, which would greatly benefit the Russian army and its advantage over the defenders. It is for these reasons that the Kremlin's negotiating strategy aims to have Ukraine surrender the critically important territory of the Donbas fortress city belt without a fight, the Institute for the Study of War emphasized.

18 smaller cities that Ukraine's defense might rely on should Donbass fall to Russia / Infographics: ISW
At the same time, based on current battlefield realities, the ISW predicts that Russia is unlikely to militarily capture the fortress belt in the near future. Although the situation on the front is difficult, it is not critical for Ukraine, and its defensive lines continue to hold; their collapse is becoming increasingly unlikely, experts believe. Therefore, the best prospects for Russian forces in 2026 are continued minor creeping gains; Russia will not capture the rest of Donetsk Oblast this year, ISW analysts are convinced.
Even assuming circumstances favor Russia, this could happen only in late 2027 or early 2028 if Ukraine's international partners continue to support Ukraine. But even this forecast — assuming favorable conditions for Russia — is not final, the Institute for the Study of War stressede. They recalled that in February, Ukraine liberated more territory than Russia captured for the first time since 2023. If this trend continues and strengthens, Russia's ability to capture the Donbas fortress belt may be completely called into question.

In 2025, Russian forces captured an average of 15 sq. km per day, whereas in the first three months of 2026, they advanced an average of only 5.5 sq. km (compared to 11.06 sq. km per day in the same period a year ago).
Thus, surrendering the Donbas fortress belt without a fight would be a strategic mistake and would undermine the goal of achieving a firm and lasting peace in Ukraine, the ISW emphasized. The occupation of this sector of the front by the Russians is not an inevitable factor, as it is now unclear whether Russia's economy, defense-industrial complex, and army recruitment system can withstand several more years of the additional campaigns necessary to capture the fortress belt. Instead, for Ukraine, it must continue to serve as the cornerstone of future defense and battlefield geometry, analysts concluded.

65% Of US Voters See AI Data Centers As Unwelcome As Nuclear Power Plants

2026-04-15T09:52:00.003-04:00

American public opinion has turned decisively against the construction of AI data centers in local communities, with a significant majority saying they are as unwelcome near their homes as a nuclear power plant. Recent polls in Virginia, which three years ago showed 69% favored the centers, now show that has plummeted to 35%. In Maine, the state legislature has enacted a ban on large data centers.

The implication for the future of AI is serious. Data center building is already behind schedule because of overly optimistic (from simply uninformed to delusional) assumptions about the availability of construction materials and workers, as well as component suppliers to meet the extraordinary demand. Those delays are now increasing as local and state officials see public opposition growing, so move to respond by slowing regulatory approval. The problem for Big Tech and AI investors is that valuations and growth projections were based on rapid construction of data centers, an untested expectation now facing disruptive challenge. JL

Evan Halper and colleagues report in the Washington Post:

Legislators in Maine passed the nation’s first statewide ban on large data centers, part of a growing backlash to the energy-intensive facilities that fuel AI. Voters in Virginia, a global hub for data centers, have turned sharply against the facilities after previously welcoming them. In 2023, 69% of voters said they would be comfortable with a new data center in their community. That has plunged to 35% in the past month. That shift suggests Virginians now consider data centers almost as undesirable as nuclear power plants. A 2023 poll found just 33% of voters nationwide would be comfortable seeing one built in their community. Similar disillusionment has taken hold across the country. Nationwide, 62% of Americans say the cost of data centers outweighs the benefits

Voters in Virginia, a global hub for the hulking warehouses of computers known as data centers, have turned sharply against the facilities after previously welcoming them, a Washington Post-Schar School poll has found.

Legislators in Maine on Tuesday passed the nation’s first statewide ban on large data centers, part of a growing backlash to the energy-intensive facilities that fuel the rise of artificial intelligence.

The measure would block the creation of new data centers that draw more than 20 megawatts of power until the fall of 2027 and establish a mechanism to study their impact on the electrical grid. Maine’s moratorium was approved in final votes Tuesday by both houses of the state legislature. The bill will now go to Gov. Janet Mills (D) for signature.

The share of Virginian voters who would be comfortable with construction of a new data center in their community has plunged to 35 percent, according to the Post-Schar School poll conducted late last month, as worries mount in the state and across the nation that the projects are a scourge on the environment and household utility bills. Data centers enjoyed bipartisan support from Virginians as recently as 2023, but that has flipped to dismay throughout the state, including in regions that are far from the dense cluster of hundreds of facilities outside Washington known as “Data Center Alley.”

The poll shows a striking drop since the same question was asked in 2023, when 69 percent of voters said they would be comfortable with a new data center in their community.
That shift suggests Virginians now consider data centers almost as undesirable as nuclear power plants, which a 2023 Post-University of Maryland poll found just 33 percent of voters nationwide would be very or somewhat comfortable seeing built in their community.
Similar disillusionment has taken hold across the country. Nationwide, 62 percent of Americans say the cost of data centers outweighs the benefits, according to a Marquette Law School poll conducted in January.

Virginia voters have also soured on tax breaks for data centers that create at least 1,000 jobs. In the 2023 Post-Schar School poll, they were favored by 61 percent of voters, but the new poll found that 37 percent now support them.
In a separate question, the poll found that 26 percent of Virginia voters support continuing the sales-tax exemption for data centers that meet investment requirements, while 67 percent want to end those incentives. State lawmakers are weighing whether to gut the incentives.
The new poll results underscore the intensity of public frustration with Silicon Valley’s plan for a boom in construction in Virginia and nationwide. The tech industry’s insistence that it must rapidly construct power-hungry data centers to compete in artificial intelligence innovation has created a major political hazard for elected officials, especially at the local level where the projects receive approval.

“Lots of people are making money on these institutions,” Charlottesville retiree Sylvia Whitt, 78, said of data centers. “Not Virginians who pay for it and who are going to be paying through the nose through water, electricity and degradation of the environment.”
“I like the internet as much as anybody, but we’ve got to go on an internet diet,” she said. “We don’t need to pay for corporations to do their internet stuff.”
Whitt described herself as a “bleeding-heart” liberal. But she has similar views on data centers to Mark Lauzier, a 64-year-old government worker from the Leesburg area who identifies as Christian conservative. “It is just crazy what is going on,” he said of the boom in data center construction. “It is driven by money and greed, and it is diminishing our quality of life.”
Virginians widely share those concerns about costs to the environment and the power grid, according to the Post-Schar School poll. It found that 57 percent of registered voters believe data centers are having a negative impact on home energy bills, as opposed to 14 percent who say they are helping.
And 59 percent of voters said the projects are negatively affecting the local environment, as opposed to 14 percent who say the impact is positive.
“What is happening in Virginia is happening around the country,” said Eric Eve, a White House aide during the Clinton era and a former vice president for global community relations at Citi who now helps corporate clients build local relationships.
“Americans are asking: Why am I supporting the evolution of something that could be so incredibly destructive without understanding how it benefits me?” Eve said. Rising energy costs and the drive by Silicon Valley firms to deploy a technology that its leaders say will automate many jobs add to the discomfort, Eve said.
The intensity of American opposition to the projects is reflected in the hundreds of proposals to rein in data centers that have rapidly emerged in Virginia and statehouses and city councils across the country. On Tuesday, legislators in Maine passed a measure that would block the creation of new data centers that draw more than 20 megawatts of power until the fall of 2027.
Project proposals that would have sailed through planning boards only a couple of years ago are now getting blocked, analysts say. Candidates are running on anti-data-center platforms in some parts of the country, and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-New York) have proposed a nationwide moratorium on the facilities.
The number of grassroots organizations fighting data centers nationwide has doubled over the past year to nearly 400, according to Data Center Watch, a tracking effort by the nonpartisan research firm 10a Labs. With 57 such groups, Virginia has more than any other state.
National organizations like the NAACP, the Sierra Club and Earthjustice have also joined the battle against data centers in a major way. “In 2024 or 2025, if you were a developer proposing a data center project, you would factor in opposition as a possibility,” said Miquel Vila, a researcher at Data Center Watch. “Now it is something you have to count on. Silicon Valley’s arguments that these are a good thing are not working — not their broader narrative, and not the more specific arguments they are using at the local level.”

At least 48 data center projects were blocked or delayed across the country in 2025, according to Data Center Watch, scuttling $156 billion in planned development. That includes a $1 billion plan for a 515-acre data center campus east of Richmond that the developer shelved in August amid fierce community opposition, as well as a Fauquier County project called “Gigaland” that was bitterly fought by residents.

There were 238 state legislative proposals to place new rules on data center development nationwide last year, 40 of which were passed, according to monitoring by the government affairs firm MultiState.

The frustration is mounting in Virginia even as local leaders who championed the projects can point to an influx of revenue that has helped keep property taxes down and schools and other services well funded, a point not lost on retiree David Spahr, 63, who has lived in Ashburn for three decades.

“They certainly provide revenue to the country, so our home taxes don’t go up, but the values of our houses do,” he said. “It’s generally positive.”

Spahr’s views are in the minority. Even in Loudoun County, where data centers have provided a major boost to local coffers, the Post-Schar School poll found that 51 percent of voters perceive the developments are making their tax bills worse.
“I find it surprising,” said Terry Clower, a professor of public policy at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, which co-sponsored the poll. “Anyone in Loudoun County who says they don’t see a benefit from this should look at their tax bill. … At some point there are going to be case studies of how the tech companies managed to so badly blow their messaging.”
A majority of voters in Virginia agree with tech companies that the data centers are creating employment opportunities, with 56 percent saying their impact on job growth is positive. And more voters say the projects have a positive impact on the local economy than say those impacts are negative. Yet fewer than half of Virginia voters say they help funding for county governments or local property tax rates, two of the most common arguments for their construction. In Loudoun, 51 percent say data centers have a positive impact on local government funding, but 25 percent say the same about local property tax rates, despite the county lowering property taxes by 30 percent over the past decade.

Overall, a commanding majority of Virginia voters are not comfortable with a new data center getting built in their community at a time when the industry is on a construction spree. That tension is reshaping the political landscape throughout Virginia, where Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D) is resisting calls to cut tax breaks for data centers, which the Post-Schar School poll show are unpopular with the electorate.

“You should know what you’re giving up,” Spanberger said in an interview with The Post. “How many fewer data centers might come to Virginia? What is the modeling for what that means in terms of impact to local revenues? What does that mean for what the state might then have to backfill to local revenues? And importantly, what’s our legal exposure if we’re breaking contracts?”

“Whether we’re making promises to localities or to businesses or to a workforce, Virginia should be a place that keeps its commitments,” she said. Navigating the issue has become particularly challenging for Democrats, who are facing a base of voters whose views on data centers have changed dramatically in the past few years. The share of Democrats who would be comfortable with a new data center built in their community has plunged 44 percentage points since 2023, according to the poll, with 28 percent now saying they would be comfortable with it.

At the same time, the number of data center projects are booming. If there is one point on which even voters with wildly diverging views on data centers can agree, it is that the issue is not going away. Spahr remarked on how the construction spree seems endless.

“They’re not stopping anytime soon,” he said.The poll was conducted by The Post and George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government from March 26-31 among a random sample of 1,101 registered voters in Virginia, drawn from a statewide voter database, including 160 interviews with voters in Loudoun County. Live-caller interviews reached respondents on cellphones (62 percent) and landlines (16 percent); 22 percent were reached via text message and invited to take the survey online. The overall margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points

Renewed Ukrainian Advances In Zaporizhzhia Further Weakens Russia's Hold

2026-04-14T10:42:00.001-04:00

Renewed advances by Ukrainian troops in Zaporizhzhia oblast are taking advantage of Russian weaknesses in some sectors. This is further evidence of Ukraine's opportunistic attack strategy, which is enhancing Ukrainian positions wherever possible while challenging Russia's overstretched forces in ways that degrade their capabilities across the front, further diminishing their chances for advances this year. JL

Sofiia Syngaivska reports in Defense Express:

Ukrainian forces are conducting a coordinated effort to clear Stepnohirsk in Zaporizhzhia oblast. The fighting has resulted in significant Russian losses, with several hundred personnel eliminated, more than 20 armored vehicles destroyed or damaged, including tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, and multiple prisoners captured directly within urban areas. The scale of the engagement suggests a sustained and high-intensity battle. The broader operational significance of the fighting lies in regaining control of the settlment which would eliminate a staging ground for Russian advances, and expand Ukraine's fire control over key enemy logistics routes in the area.
Uraine's Defense Intelligence Artan special unit is playing a central role in ongoing operations near Stepnohirsk on the Zaporizhzhia axis, where Ukrainian forces are conducting a coordinated effort to de-occupy and clear the settlement. The operation is being carried out in close cooperation with other elements of the Active Operations Department and the broader Armed Forces of Ukraine.
According to the report, the fighting has resulted in significant russian losses, with several hundred personnel eliminated, more than 20 armored vehicles destroyed or damaged, including tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, and multiple prisoners captured directly within urban areas. The scale of the engagement suggests a sustained and high-intensity battle rather than a limited raid.

Commanders emphasize that the mission represents an atypical deployment for special operations forces. As noted by unit commander Viktor Torkotiuk, operators have been required to hold forward positions for extended periods, in some cases spending months on the front line. This endurance has been translated into offensive effectiveness, enabling the unit to operate beyond its traditional role.

On the russian side, forces are relying on small assault groups, typically numbering between one and ten personnel, advancing under the cover of fog. This approach reflects a broader tactic often described as "meat infiltration", where dispersed infantry attempts to penetrate Ukrainian lines through persistence rather than maneuver. Ukrainian reconnaissance elements reportedly neutralize most of these groups in the grey zone before they reach defensive positions.
In addition to ground assaults, russian forces have concentrated elite FPV drone teams in the area in an attempt to gain aerial superiority at the tactical level.

However, Ukrainian forces have countered this threat through an integrated short-range air defense network combined with experienced drone operators. As a result, control of the low-altitude airspace remains contested but largely favorable to Ukrainian units, limiting the effectiveness of russian drone operations.
Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia region / screenshot from DeepStateMap
The broader operational significance of the fighting lies in the potential recapture of Stepnohirsk. Regaining control of the settlement would help straighten the front line, eliminate a potential staging ground for russian advances toward Zaporizhzhia, and expand Ukraine's fire control over key enemy logistics routes in the area.

Kremlin's 2026 Recruitment Rate Has Fallen 20% Versus 2025

2026-04-14T10:13:00.001-04:00

The word is out in Russia: signing up to fight in Ukraine is almost certainly a one-way ticket to death. As a result, Kremlin recruiting in the first three months of 2026 is 20% lower than it was in 2025 despite a dramatic increase in the financial incentives being offered.

Ironically, one of the reasons why recruiting of contract soldiers may be down is that the enhanced signing bonuses are putting tremendous pressure on the Russian regions bearing that cost. As a result, it may be that the regions are less enthusiastically pursuing new recruits. To make up the shortfall, the Kremlin is demanding that 2% of all university students either volunteer or be 'volunteered' by their schools. In addition, Russians with any sort of debt are being forced into joining. And if the debtor is a woman, her male relatives are targeted. This does not sound like a long term solution that the Russian people will embrace. JL

Roman Pryhodko reports in Militarnyi:

The rate of recruitment of contract soldiers into the Russian Armed Forces fell by 20% compared to 2025. In early 2026, Russia was recruiting approximately 800 soldiers per day, whereas in the first quarter of 2025, this figure was approximately 1,000–1,200 people. On average, Russia recruits about 30,000 new soldiers each month. This is enough to offset current losses, but not enough for a large-scale expansion of the army. (This is despite the fact that) a new record in the amount of payments for signing a contract—the average amount in his sample in March reached 1.47 million rubles, while the median was 1.55 million rubles. (But), this places increasing financial pressure on Russian regions.
The rate of recruitment of contract soldiers into the Russian Armed Forces fell by 20% compared to 2025.
This is noted in an analysis by German researcher Janis Kluge.
According to his estimates, after a relatively stable 2024, recruitment rates began to decline, and this trend only intensified during 2025–2026.

In particular, during certain periods, the decline amounted to about 20% compared to previous months.
In early 2026, Russia was recruiting approximately 800 soldiers per day, whereas in the first quarter of 2025, this figure was approximately 1,000–1,200 people.

Despite this, Russian authorities continue to officially claim stable recruitment figures of 400,000–500,000 contract soldiers annually. However, independent estimates based on an analysis of budget expenditures show a more modest trend.
On average, Russia recruits about 30,000 new soldiers each month. This is enough to offset current losses, but not enough for a large-scale expansion of the army.

The recruitment mechanism itself is increasingly dependent on financial incentives. High one-time payments and salaries, which have risen significantly since 2024, remain the main factor in attracting volunteers.
In particular, the federal government has doubled the signing bonus to 400,000 rubles, and the regions add their own payments, which make up the bulk of the compensation.
The analyst also notes a new record in the amount of payments for signing a contract—the average amount in his sample in March reached 1.47 million rubles, while the median was 1.55 million rubles.

At the same time, this model places increasing financial pressure on Russian regions. On average, they spend up to 4% of their budgets on recruitment, and in some cases—up to 10%, which is effectively equivalent to spending on healthcare or education.
Kluge emphasizes that data from the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation allows tracking not only recruitment expenditures but also the actual activity of the regions. According to his calculations, in the first quarter of 2026, Russian regions funded the recruitment of approximately 70,500 soldiers.

Earlier, Militarnyi reported that the Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation had set a target for university rectors to recruit at least 2% of the total student body into contract military service. At the beginning of the year, the head of the ministry announced this requirement at a meeting with the leadership of the aggressor country’s largest universities.

For 1st Time, Ukraine Ground 'Bots, Drones Capture Russian Position Without Troops

2026-04-14T09:51:00.003-04:00

For the first time in Ukraine's war against the Russian invasion, ground robots and aerial drones advanced and captured without human infantry a Russian position, forcing the Kremlin troops engaged to surrender.

Ground robots have now carried out 22,000 missions in the first three months of 2026. As many as 80% of logistics operations are carried out by ground robots in some sectors, with a growing percentage of combat missions now being added. 30% of Ukrainian infantry could be replaced by these bots this year, saving lives and allowing for the redeployment of human troops to other tasks for which they are better suited. JL

Matthew Robinson and Ellie Cook report in Newsweek:

Ukrainian troops have retaken territory from Russia using only unmanned robots for the first time. Russian soldiers "surrendered" when they were met exclusively with ground systems and drones advancing without infantry against Russian forces on the ground. “The occupiers surrendered, and the operation was carried out without infantry and without losses on our side.” Ground robots have carried out over 22,000 frontline missions in the past three months, venturing into the most dangerous clashes in place of Ukrainian soldiers. Ground robots completed more than 9,000 combat and logistics missions on the front line in March alone, an increase from under 3,000 in November. 30% of Ukraine's infantry could be immediately replaced by UGVs. This could surge to 80% in the future.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that Kyiv's troops have retaken territory from Russia using only unmanned robots for the first time.
Zelensky said that Russian soldiers "surrendered" when they were met exclusively with ground systems and drones, Ukraine advancing without infantry troops battling Russian forces on the ground.

The Ukrainian leader did not say where the advance took place.
The more than four years of war in Ukraine have been a crucible for drone development. Other militaries across the world have closely watched Russia and Ukraine jostle in the race to deploy constantly upgraded airborne and underwater unmanned systems, as well as robots which travel by land.
Left: President Vladimir Putin in Moscow last week. Right: Ground robotic systems used by the Ukrainian military. | Vyacheslav PROKOFYEV/AFP/Getty Images/Volodymyr Zelensky/X
While Ukraine's flying drones and explosive-laden uncrewed boats are well known, Kyiv's growing fleet of unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) attract far less attention.

These robots are designed to keep human beings away from danger and perform all kinds of tasks, from evacuating injured soldiers to minelaying or hurtling toward a target and detonating.
No Ukrainian troops were killed in the advance, Zelensky said on Monday.

Ground robots have carried out over 22,000 frontline missions in the past three months, the Ukrainian president added, the drones venturing into the most dangerous clashes in place of Ukrainian soldiers.
Ukraine's defense ministry had said earlier this month ground robots completed more than 9,000 combat and logistics missions on the front line in March alone, an increase from under 3,000 in November.

"This is about high technology protecting the highest value —human life," he added in a post to social media.
Up to 30 percent of Ukraine's infantry forces could be immediately replaced by UGVs, Alexander Kamyshin, one of Zelensky's advisers, who previously headed up Kyiv's strategic industries ministry, said last month. This could surge to 80 percent further down the line, Kamyshin said.
"You can argue the numbers or the timeline, but the shift is undeniable," he added. "UGVs are a game changer."

A Ukrainian commander said in February that ground robots already provided nearly three-quarters of logistics missions around the bombarded frontline city of Kostyantynivka, in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region.

Russian forces now attack routes used by ground robots, attempting to blow up the UGVs with mines and airborne drones, Anatoly Kulykivskyi, who heads up Ukraine's 28th Brigade, told Ukrainian media.
One Ukrainian ground drone manufacturer said in January its robot had captured Russian troops as prisoners of war, publishing footage purporting to show the three Russian soldiers discarding their equipment and lying down around the UGV.

Science PhD's Double Outperformance of AI But Embrace It For Research

2026-04-14T09:21:00.002-04:00

Stanford University released its report on the state of AI yesterday, widely considered the definitive take on trends, performance, education and all related indices.

There is a wealth of data in the report, much of which is available online, but two notable issues stand out. The first is that China and the US are clearly in the lead in most categories, now almost equal, with the US maintaining a slight lead. The other is that the embrace of AI in all fields continues to grow, but for the time being, PhDs in various sciences continue to outperform AI by a significant degree - approximately double - in multistep workflows. This will probably not be permanent, but it does add to the considerable body of evidence suggesting that AI's global dominance is likely to take longer than Silicon Valley would have the rest of the world believe. JL

Nicola Jones reports in Nature:

Many researchers have started to rely on AI ‘agents’ that autonomously carry out actions including scientific workflows, but the report is skeptical about their performance. AI agents still struggle to reliably perform multistep workflows, it reports, with the best AI agents scoring roughly half as well as human specialists with PhDs. “Agents are wonderful, but we are still far from a place where we use them effectively.” (Despite that) in 2025, more than 80,000 papers, preprints and other types of publication in the natural sciences — which includes life, physical and Earth sciences — mentioned AI, 26% more than in 2024. The subcategory of physical sciences had the largest number of publications that mention AI (33,000). The Earth sciences category had the highest percentage (9%).
In an indication of how quickly scientists are embracing artificial intelligence, the number of publications in the natural sciences that mention AI grew by almost 30-fold from 2010 to 2025, according to an influential annual state-of-the-field report.
The proportion of publications in any given natural-sciences field that mention AI ranges from 6% to 9% (see ‘AI paper boom’), according to the Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2026, released today by the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI at Stanford University in California1.
“Scientists have really embraced this AI era,” says computer scientist Yolanda Gil at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles, who led this year’s index report (see ‘Fun AI facts’).
Source: Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2026
Alongside the boom in AI-related science publications, the report also lists a host of newly released science foundation models — AI models that are broadly trained to take on a wide range of tasks, but also specially trained on massive data sets from a specific domain of science.
Many researchers have started to rely on AI ‘agents’ that autonomously carry out actions including scientific workflows, but the report is sceptical about their performance. AI agents still struggle to reliably perform multistep workflows, it reports, with the best AI agents scoring roughly half as well as human specialists with PhDs. “Agents are wonderful, but we are still far from a place where we understand how to use them effectively,” says Gil.
Growing numbers
The report says that in 2025, more than 80,000 papers, preprints and other types of publication in the natural sciences — which includes life, physical and Earth sciences — mentioned AI, 26% more than in 2024. The subcategory of physical sciences had the largest number of publications that mention AI (33,000). The Earth sciences category had the highest percentage (9%).
How AI agents will change research: a scientist’s guide
The boom in AI-related science papers is “not surprising”, says computer scientist Arvind Narayanan at Princeton University in New Jersey, who was not involved with creating the index. But it’s not clear, he says, whether the rise of AI use is productive for science. “Whether or not this explosive growth is meaningful is hotly debated,” Narayanan says. “My view is that it is happening too fast, without giving scientific norms time to adjust, and so the quality of research has taken a nosedive.”
Gil says there isn’t much evidence yet that AI is improving scientists’ productivity. “The studies are limited,” she says. But, she adds, scientists “can’t live without it. If you took AI away from them, there would be a riot. So it must be helping in some way.”
Top models
As uptake has grown, so has the number of AI platforms available to researchers. This past year saw the emergence of many science foundation models, including the first one for astronomy, AION-1, which was trained on more than 200 million celestial objects. This training helps it to classify galaxies or estimate their properties. “When I talked to scientists in 2024 and said ‘There’s foundation models for science’, scientists would not know what that means. They didn’t know they existed. I think we have seen that really advance very quickly,” says Gil.

Three Weeks Into Spring Offensive, Russia Has Actually Lost Territory

2026-04-13T11:27:00.003-04:00

Historically, three weeks into a major offensive, the attacking military should have gained ground as the defenders struggle to reorganize and respond. But not so for the Russian army in Ukraine.

Three weeks into their spring offensive, they have actually lost ground to the Ukrainians, who are taking advantage of Russian predictability and weakness by opportunistically advancing themselves at points along the line where the Russians are weakest. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

The Russian spring offensive started around March 20, 2026. (But) the net amount of territory gained by Russia in that time is actually a net loss. During the first week, Russia gained. During the last week, the Russians lost territory. It is notable that three weeks into a large offensive, the Russians are losing ground. When you add that in March, the Ukrainians gained more territory than they lost even with the Russian Spring Offensive starting, overall the Russians are still losing more than they are taking. If the Russians are using their reserves and it gains them nothing, the initiative will return more and more to Ukraine. This failure (offers) echoes of Putin planning his 2022 victory parade in Kyiv
The Russian Spring Offensive Started around March 20, 2026. The Institute For The Study Of War, opted for March 21 as the exact start date, saying this was when the Russians began a concerted assault on the Ukrainian fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast.
The net amount of territory gained by Russia in that times seems close to nil, or actually a net loss. During the first week, Russia gained about 40 square kilometres (17 square miles). During the last week, the Russians if anything lost territory. It was not much, about 1.5 square miles (1 square mile). However it is notable that three weeks into a large offensive, when one would have thought that Russian mass and manpower advantage would be telling on what we have been told are Ukrainian defenses with no soldiers, that the Russians are losing territory.
And when you add this to the fact that in March as a whole, the Ukrainians gained more territory than they lost even with the Russian Spring Offensive starting for the last 10 days or so, it is worth noting that overall the Russians are still losing more than they are taking.
I could throw up maps of the front from Deep State, but what is the point? The lines have barely shifted. To show changes you have to zero in so closely that you lose perspective about how small the territory is.
This is not the Battle of the Somme, it is something else entirely. It is four years into a war (by which time the two sides should have figured out different things about the battlefield) and the larger and supposedly more powerful side seems to have no answers and cannot move.
Zelensky even said that the Russians are taking what seems to be a major risk, and committing their strategic reserve to try and make up for their massive losses and inability to move forward. Here was a quote from one of his press conferences.
“In general, we are seeing an interesting situation: in a month we destroy as many invaders as they mobilize, but at the same time the size of their grouping in Ukraine is increasing. We believe they are expanding their force in Ukraine by bringing in personnel from the strategic reserve,”
“We believe this is a risky move for the Russians, because by doing so they are weakening their borders with other countries, and the situation there is not simple for them. Nevertheless, they have gone ahead with it,”
If he is right, this should be what Ukraine wants. The willingness to sacrifice their own people without regard has always been the Russian way in this war. If that tactic no longer works, and in throwing away reserves they prove it, it will mean that the Russians do lack an answer to Ukrainian defenses at present.
We are not yet at Mussolini’s Offensive into Greece in 1940 (which resulted in an almost immediate loss of territory by the attacker), but if the Russians are using their reserves and they gain them nothing, the initiative will return more and more to the Ukrainians. This failure was a direct result of Mussolini seeing the Greeks as he wanted them to be, not as they were. He believed that they were weak and divided, and after a few weeks of fighting he would have his victory parade in Athens. There are echoes to Putin planning his 2022 victory parade in Kyiv

Ukraine's Secret Network of 3D Bomb Builders

2026-04-13T11:10:00.005-04:00

In yet another example of Ukraine's entrepreneurial tech innovation, a network of volunteers is supporting the Ukrainian military by 3D printing parts for drone-delivered bombs and other weapons, as well as related components.

The volunteers have produced 100 tons of manufactured plastic items in the past last year. JL

Kathryn Diss reports in the Australian Broadcasting Corporation:

A volunteer network that stretches across Europe, fills the gaps when supplies through official channels dry up. Last year, the network of 400 volunteers produced 100 tons of manufactured plastic items for Ukraine's military, including parts for ammunition and casings for bombs that are strapped to drones as well as safety switches and LED torches to antennas to help steer drones. "Everyone who volunteers is [a] civilian, so we don't work with explosives or detonators. We print the shell and then it gets sent to the military, where they add explosives, shrapnel and detonators to make a bomb." The printers, which quickly produce small parts en masse and can be adapted for new designs, have proved vital for Ukraine. "It's like an e-commerce website. Once they order something, it is sent to volunteers so they can manufacture it and send it directly to the soldiers."

In an undisclosed garage in the Warsaw suburbs, Alex is running a round-the-clock operation in Poland's capital.
Day and night, seven days a week, he's got three 3D printers on the go.
Layer by layer, the machine, no larger than a bar fridge, deposits liquid plastic onto a bed through a nozzle.
It's currently making a mechanical safety switch to prevent the payload of a drone from releasing prematurely. Once completed, it will be on its way to Ukraine for soldiers to strap on.
"It's simple, cheap. These switches cost like a few cents … and it helps to save the lives of our guys," Alex tells ABC News.
Living outside Ukraine when the war broke out, Alex and his fellow Ukrainians wanted to help but weren't sure how.
3D printers are working around the clock to help the Ukrainian military.  (Telegram)
Then, the idea came to him when a friend in Ukraine asked him to post a 3D printer from Poland so he could make much-needed supplies for the frontline.
"I thought, 'This guy is in the military. Why should he pay his money for something that he needs for performing his duties?'" Alex said.
So, he set about raising the money needed to buy the printer.
Then he bought one for himself and now he's part of a volunteer network that stretches across Europe, filling the gaps for troops when supplies through official channels dry up.
In 2024, Alex used more than 500 kilograms of plastic, producing everything from mechanical safety switches and LED torches to antennas to help steer drones.
The printers, which quickly produce small parts en masse and can be adapted for new and improved designs, have proved vital for the war in Ukraine.
From spare rooms to the front line
Lyosha, who lives in Kyiv, is one of the men who set up the network two years ago.
He says volunteers buy their own printer and plastic and, when the parts are made, they send them on to soldiers on the front line.
"We operate with a website that's a restricted-access site for both volunteers and the military," he told ABC News.
"The military need to verify … that they really are from the military to start getting the volunteering help. But basically … after military people verify … they get access to the closed catalogue list of products.
"It's like an e-commerce website. Once they order something … then the order is sent to volunteers so they can manufacture it … and send it directly to the soldiers."
Volunteers throughout Europe are working to help stock Ukraine's military. (Telegram)
Last year, Lyosha's network of about 400 volunteers produced 100 tonnes of manufactured plastic items for Ukraine's military, including parts for ammunition and casings for bombs that are strapped to drones.
The plastic weapons casings are a lifesaver for soldiers. The lightweight technology allows the drones to fly further behind enemy lines before they strike their targets.
A new age of drone warfare has arrived
You can't buy a tank at a car dealership or a jet fighter at duty free, but in 2026 you can get a small missile at a hobby shop. What's going on?
"Without volunteering … in Ukraine, the situation with the ammunition would be much, much worse and it would be grim just because the government could not support advancement of the drone ammunition improvements," Lyosha said.
"Everyone who volunteers is [a] civilian, so we don't have allowance to work with explosives or detonators.
"We basically print the shell and then it gets sent to the military, where they add explosives, shrapnel and detonators — make it like a bomb, a real bomb."
ABC News agreed to only publish Alex and Lyosha's first names because of personal safety concerns.
Volunteering across Europe to support Ukraine
It's impossible to know just how many people form these underground printing networks, which never disclose their locations because of the threat of Russian attack.
But Lyosha said he was aware of at least 30 volunteer groups — with some people running so-called printer farms — of 30 or more machines.
The network stretches far and wide, including all the way to the UK.
In many cases, the equipment is being printed in households across Europe.  (Telegram)
Etienne Paresys joined a different network called Print Army two and a half years ago from his London home. He has since printed more than 100 kilograms of products that he's sent to Ukraine's army.
"I had never printed anything before in 3D, so I just went there on the website trying to understand what I need to do," he said.
"I bought my first printer, which was not very good. It took me a few months to understand. I bought another one … it's just something I wanted to [do to] help the army."
Mr Paresys has a printing schedule that runs all day and night.
"I set it going overnight, then I go to work. Literally, it's non-stop printing," he said.
"We print thousands of things and then we send them to the army for the job that needs to be done. Usually that's part of drones, part of bombs.
The 3D printed equipment goes from being printed in households to being deployed on the front lines.  (Telegram)
Mr Paresys said when the war broke out, he wanted to do something to help, so when he found out about the 3D printing networks, he jumped on board.
"I find it very sad. This war is just going on and on. People have forgot what is happening, that they are fighting on the front line," he said.
"There is no focus. People have just forgotten about it. The army is still needed unfortunately.
"We are supporting the army mostly because I think it's literally the only way to make sure it doesn't get worse than it is right now."
3D printing emblematic of modern Ukraine
While it might come as a surprise that such a volunteer network could spring up on such an industrial scale practically overnight, it's not a shock to Nick Reynolds, a research fellow with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
"This has been very understood since 2014. It's just the way Ukraine civil society works," he said.
"It's always been very heavy grassroots, bottom up — both mobilisation and civil society engagement.
"This is emblematic of modern Ukrainian society."
The volunteer network has proved crucial for supporting Ukraine's war effort.  (Telegram)
Mr Reynolds said while it was entrepreneurial of the Ukrainians, using 3D printers for weapons casings and drone parts had become commonplace across the military, civil society and private industry.
"They are being used extensively but it depends on the system and the material," he said.
"It allows for manufacture close to the need, so it eliminates some of the other supply chain requirements such as transport and storage."

Russian Armor Now Rarely Makes It To Front Due To Ukraine's 20Km Kill Zone

2026-04-13T10:14:00.001-04:00

The extension of Ukraine's Drone Line to what is now a 20 kilometer 'robotic kill zone' has meant that Russian tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and other armored equipment 'rarely' makes it as far as the front line, let alone deployed in a position to attack Ukrainian, defenses.

The weapons and vehicles are almost always spotted, targeted and eliminated behind what is roughly conceived of as a front in historical terms, making the entire battle zone a gray area in which it has become impossible for the Kremlin to move large units - even if they had such formations at their disposal. For the same reason, evidence of Kremlin deployment of strategic reserves from elsewhere in Russia now reveal that Russian forces can be replenished, but not accumulated, all of which confirms the degradation of Russian military capacity. JL

Yuri Zoria reports in the Euromaidan Press:

Russian heavy equipment usage has become limited across the front and the reason is structural. Due to the 20 kilometer kill zone, "Russian equipment usually doesn't get through, especially tanks and infantry fighting vehicles," reducing Russia's tank and IFV advantage from a battlefield asset to a logistics problem that sits 20 km away from the positions it was built to overrun. Ukraine's Drone Line, funded at $880 million and operational since March 2025, is creating " a robotic kill zone" with continuous drone coverage along assault corridors.

Currently, Russia is just replenishing frontline losses rather than building up combat strength in several sectors, while heavy armor stays well behind the contact line, the spokesman for Ukraine's Joint Forces said on 13 April, as Russia's Easter ceasefire continued to collapse under the weight of its own violations.
Ukraine's drone-dominated kill zone has fundamentally changed what armored warfare looks like on this front — reducing Russia's tank and IFV advantage from a battlefield asset to a logistics problem that sits 20 km away from the positions it was built to overrun.
Personnel replaced, not built up
Spokesman Viktor Trehubov told Ukrainian television that Russian forces on the directions his grouping covers are not massing for a new push.
"Personnel is being replenished more than accumulated," Trehubov said — meaning Russia is replacing the losses from recent assault activity and restoring units to pre-offensive headcount, not concentrating fresh force.

The day before the briefing, 12 April, Ukraine recorded 107 combat engagements. From the moment Russia declared its Easter truce until Trehubov's update, Russia had violated the ceasefire 10,721 times, according to his data.
Tanks park 20 km back
Heavy equipment usage is limited across the front, Trehubov said — and the reason is structural.
"Such is the nature of modern warfare: through the large 20 km kill zone, equipment usually doesn't get through — specifically tanks and IFVs," he noted. Motorcycles and quad bikes do cross the zone — but, as Trehubov put it, calling them military hardware is a stretch.
The figure aligns with a pattern documented across the front. In February 2026, Ukraine's former Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi described the frontline as a "robotic kill zone" expanding throughout the war. Ukraine's Drone Line, funded at $880 million and operational since March 2025, killed approximately 30,000 Russian soldiers in a single winter by creating continuous drone coverage along assault corridors. Russian tanks and IFVs have adapted with successive generations of anti-drone caging and armor, but crews have learned that getting detected in the kill zone generally means getting destroyed — which is why many vehicles now wait in underground shelters until assault orders arrive

AI's Computing Power Demand Exhausts Global Supply, Constraining Growth

2026-04-13T09:35:00.005-04:00

Electricity, water...and now computing power? The AI boom was projected to grow at infinity times 100 gazillion (a slight exaggeration...). That is, until the reality of how much existing data, electricity, water and now, computing power could be resourced in addition to new capacity to support the Silicon Valley hype machine growth fantasy.

Yes, AI will be impactful and it will change many things about the way we work, make money and live, just as new technology has always done. But also just like transformational technologies of the past, there will be periods of delayed or slowed growth because the existing infrastructure cannot yet support it. Concerns about electricity have been extant for some time, based in part on simple calculations about the world's capacity to apply the components, building materials and people to construct the data centers required. Latterly, there has been a growing awareness of the fact that many of the data centers are being built in places with favorable tax and regulatory regimes - but which were already facing existential water shortages. Now, computing capacity availability is being cited as a constraint. The overall implication is that, in the real world, some growth takes time and that, in turn, affects the ability of an industry like AI to meet enthusiastic but, perhaps, overly optimistic, expectations. JL

Angel Au-Yeung and Robbie Whelan report in the Wall Street Journal:

The AI gold rush is rapidly drying up the supply of computing power. capacity crunch has forced companies to scuttle products and led to reliability problems. The issues are a warning sign for AI, as they limit the utility of new AI tools just as users have begun to rely on them. Companies have been scrambling to secure computing to serve a growing base of customers who are significantly increasing AI use. This is a classic problem in tech booms throughout history, from 19th-century railroad expansion to the internet of the early 2000s. Demand is growing far faster than companies are able to access resources and build out infrastructure. Token use in OpenAI’s API rose from six billion a minute in October to 15 billion a minute in late March. "Why don’t we just deploy more gear? Data center build times are long, the power that’s available through 2026 is already all spoken for.”
The artificial intelligence gold rush is rapidly drying up the supply of the one resource that AI developers can’t do without: computing power.
The sharp capacity crunch has caused consternation among power users, forced companies to scuttle products and led to reliability problems. The issues are a warning sign for the AI boom, as they may limit the utility of powerful new AI tools just as massive amounts of users have begun to rely on them to boost productivity.
Over the past few months, demand has exploded for “agentic” AI, autonomous tools that use the technology to independently perform tasks, from writing software code to scheduling house tours for real-estate brokers. Companies have been scrambling to secure the availability of computing capacity needed to serve a growing base of customers who are also significantly increasing their AI use.
“Everyone’s talking about oil, but I think what the world is mainly short of is tokens,” said Ben Pouladian, an engineer and tech investor based in Los Angeles. A token is a unit of measurement in AI to track how much computing resources are being used for a task. “AI is at this point no longer just some chatbot that we ask for a recipe while we stand in front of the fridge. It’s orchestrating tasks, it’s getting smarter,” Pouladian said.
All of it points to a classic problem that has popped up in technology booms throughout history, from the 19th-century railroad expansion to the telecom and internet explosion of the early 2000s. Demand is growing far faster than companies are able to access resources and build out infrastructure. Historically, price increases have been among the only ways to address a supply crunch, but such a move could be perilous for frontier AI companies, who are in a ferocious competition to gain users.
Hourly rental prices for GPUs, the microchips used to train and run AI models, have surged since the fall. Anthropic, the maker of popular chatbot Claude and viral coding app Claude Code, has been plagued recently by frequent outages. The company has begun metering computing supply to users during peak hours, but the rollout has been marred by customers who have complained that they are reaching the limit far too quickly.
OpenAI scrapped its Sora video-generation app in part to free up computing resources to power coding and enterprise products that would work on a new AI model, code-named Spud, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Token use in OpenAI’s API—a platform where mostly enterprise users access its software—rose from six billion a minute in October to 15 billion a minute in late March.
“I do spend a lot of time trying to find any last-minute compute available,” Sarah Friar, OpenAI’s chief financial officer, said in a recent public video interview with an investor. “We’re making some very tough trades at the moment on things we’re not pursuing because we don’t have enough compute.”
Toward the end of last year, CoreWeave, one of the largest publicly traded AI cloud companies, raised prices by more than 20% and started asking smaller customers to sign contracts committing them to use the company’s services for at least three years, up from one year before. Bank of America analysts reinstated coverage of the company with a “Buy” rating late last month, saying demand for its services is likely to outstrip supply through at least 2029.
Spot-market prices to access Nvidia’s GPUs, or graphics processing units, in data-center clouds have risen sharply in recent months across the company’s entire product line, according to Ornn, a New York-based data provider that publishes market data and structures financial products around GPU pricing. Renting one of Nvidia’s most-advanced Blackwell generation of chips for one hour costs $4.08, up 48% from the $2.75 it cost two months ago, according to the Ornn Compute Price Index.
“There’s a massive capacity crunch that’s unlike anything I’ve seen in the more than five years I’ve been running this business,” said J.J. Kardwell, chief executive of Vultr, a cloud infrastructure company. “The question is, why don’t we just deploy more gear? The lead times are too long. Data center build times are long, the power that’s available through 2026 is already all spoken for.”
Since mid-February, outages for systems across Anthropic have become so common that some of its enterprise clients are switching to other AI model players.
David Hsu, founder and CEO of software development platform Retool, said he prefers to use Anthropic’s Opus 4.6 model to power his company’s AI agent tool because he believes it is the best model for enterprise. He recently changed to OpenAI’s model to power his company’s agent. “Anthropic has just been going down all the time,” he said.
The reliability of core services on the internet is often measured in nines. Four nines means 99.99% of uptime—a typical percentage that a software company commits to customers. As of April 8, Anthropic’s Claude API had a 98.95% uptime rate in the last 90 days.
“That is not normal,” said Amir Haghighat, co-founder and chief technology officer at Baseten, an AI inference startup. “Think about AWS, databases, RDS or Stripe—these need to be very resilient with a very high uptime. But that is not the world we live in when it comes to AI. That’s not the quality of service that you want to be getting from the company that’s providing intelligence for your application.”
Claude API outages, in hours
Monthly
uptime
Opus 4.5 released
0
1
2
3+
None
Oct.
99.82%
Nov.
99.73%
99.81%
Dec.
Jan.
99.53%
Feb.
99.24%
March
98.32%
April
99.35%
1st
10th
20th
30th
Note: Data as of noon
Source: the company
James Benedict/WSJ
The frequent outages at Anthropic are happening as the AI lab is experiencing explosive growth. At the end of 2025, the company hit $9 billion in annual run rate, which means the company was on track to make that amount of revenue in the next 12 months. By February, that figure ballooned to $14 billion. Two months later, it doubled to $30 billion.
In late March, Anthropic suddenly announced it would limit the amount of tokens that users could burn through during peak hours from 5 a.m. to 11 a.m. Pacific Time on weekdays. Customers have taken to social media to complain about the change. “I haven’t hit my Claude Code terminal limit in weeks but this week I hit it in like 45 minutes,” wrote one user on X.
“We’ve been working hard to meet the increase in demand for Claude,” wrote Boris Cherny, creator and head of Claude Code, on X. “Capacity is a resource we manage thoughtfully and we are prioritizing our customers using our products and API.”

As Ukraine Ground and Air Drones Increase Impact, Russia Falters

2026-04-12T09:52:00.004-04:00

The increasing ground and aerial drones Ukraine can deploy combined with the growing effectiveness of the machines and their operators has had a devastating effect on Russian force. This is contributing significantly to their ability to decimate Russian attacks while gaining ground with their own counters. JL

Mick Ryan reports Futura Doctrina:

Russia's spring offensive continues to fall short, demonstrating that Russia is unable to seize the remainder of The Donbas in 2026. Russian ground forces are not making significant advances west of Hulyaipole. Ukrainian forces advanced on the Kupyansk, Slovyansk, Pokrovsk, and Hulyaipole axes during the week. Ukraine’s Forces continue to hold the strategic initiative, as unmanned systems units are “ inflicting significant and effective damage on Russian troops. For four months in a row, starting from December 2025, drone units neutralised more enemy personnel than Russia recruits. This is attributed to domestic aerial drone production, improved operator skills, and organisational decisions by Ukrainian command. Ukrainian ground robots increased the number of completed tasks by more than 50% in March compared to February
The ground situation this week confirmed the pattern established in March. Russia’s spring offensive has generated some momentum in specific sectors but continues to fall short of demonstrating that Russia is able to seize the remainder of The Donbas in 2026.
The Russia Matters April 8 report card documents a week of advances and Ukrainian counter attacks. Russian forces advanced near Prishchane, Pryvillia, Hryshyne, and Kotlynne, while Ukrainian Defence Forces cleared areas near Rodynske, Nove Shakhove, Stepnohirsk, Novoselivka, Sichneve, and Ambarne. The situation remains one of costly, incremental Russian progress. It is a pattern we have gotten used to in the past four years.
Ground operations in southern Ukraine. Map: ISW
ISW’s 10 April assessment proposed that Russian forces are prioritising offensive operations on the Hulyaipole axis of advance over defending against Ukrainian counterattacks on their Oleksandrivka axis of advance. But the Russian ground forces are not making significant advances west of Hulyaipole despite this prioritisation. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces advanced on the Kupyansk, Slovyansk, Pokrovsk, and Hulyaipole axes during the reporting week.
The Fortress Belt in Eastern Ukraine continues to absorb Russian pressure without yielding significant territorial gain for them. Russian forces continue to employ FAB-3000 guided glide bombs and Lancet loitering munitions on the Slovyansk axis of advance as battlefield air interdiction ahead of any ground assault.
Separately, Russian forces have (again) been accused of using chemical weapons on the frontline. The ISW 5 April assessment described how Russia employs gas grenades in frontline chemical weapons strikes in violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that it has documented around 400 instances of Russian forces using ammunition equipped with chemical agents in March 2026 alone, and over 13,000 instances since February 2022. Russian forces frequently use drone-dropped aerosol gas grenades.
Russia declared on 1 April that it had ‘completed the liberation’ of Luhansk Oblast — covering the remaining 0.2% of Ukrainian-held territory there. The substance of this declaration is minimal, but this is a political statement. It is designed by Russia to generate pressure on Ukraine to concede that the trajectory of the battlefield is irreversible – and convince the U.S. administration that this should drive Ukrainian territorial concessions. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi made several significant public statements during the week, centred on the performance of Ukraine’s unmanned systems forces and the trajectory of attrition against the Russian military.
On 9 April, Syrskyi stated on Telegram that Ukraine’s Defence Forces continue to hold the strategic initiative, and that unmanned systems units are “currently inflicting the most significant and effective damage on Russian troops.” He stated that “for four months in a row, starting from December 2025, our unmanned systems units have neutralised more enemy personnel than Russia recruits to their ranks.” He attributed this performance to the combined effect of domestic unmanned aerial systems production, improved operator skills, and organisational decisions by Ukrainian military command. Syrskyi also confirmed that Ukrainian ground robotic systems increased the number of completed tasks by more than 50% in March compared to February, corroborating the Ministry of Defence data released on 7 April.
Syrskyi also confirmed Russia’s expanding unmanned forces, noting that Russian personnel in unmanned units reached 101,000 by early April and is expected to grow to 165,500 by year’s end. This is an acknowledgement that the drone competition it is a race both sides are running at expanding industrial scale. But despite this rhetoric on the expanding use of drones, people remain a central element of effective military forces, a point made again this week by Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Office of the President of Ukraine.
In his April assessment, Syrskyi described Ukraine’s 2026 military goal as a strategic defensive operation to deplete Russian forces while simultaneously building Ukrainian reserves and creating conditions for future large-scale offensive operations. The pattern of operations on the ground in the past two months appears to partially validate this strategic intention.
Image: Ukrainian MoD
9000 UGV Missions in March. This week, the Ukrainian military announced that uncrewed ground vehicles (UGV) had undertaken 9000 separate missions over the month of March 2026. As I noted in my previous weekly update, Ukraine is accelerating the combat deployment of UGVs in 2026, and they are playing an increasing roll in combat operations,

Ukraine Attacks Force Russia To Use Strategic Reserves As Casualties Mount

2026-04-12T09:30:00.004-04:00

The Kremlin is being forced to commit strategic national reserves from areas such as the border with China as Ukrainian attacks continue to disrupt Russia's putative spring offensive, inflicting casualties and gaining ground.

This decision by the Kremlin is further evidence of the dire shape of the Russian military as it can no longer amass sufficient force to advance towards its announced objectives and must, instead, respond to the Ukrainian's initiative. JL

The Institute for the Study of War reports:

Ukrainian counterattacks in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions are disrupting Russian efforts elsewhere in the frontline, including in the Pokrovsk area and the Fortress Belt, forcing the Russian military command to redeploy forces away from instead of toward their priority. They have made only limited advances near Hulyaipole in recent days despite reported Kremlin prioritization; rather, ISW has observed multiple instances of Ukrainian forces continuing to advance in this area. Russian forces appear to be deploying strategic reserves as Ukrainian forces continue to inflict increased casualty rates on Russia.

Russian forces are prioritizing offensive operations in the Hulyaipole direction over defending against Ukrainian counterattacks in the Oleksandrivka direction but are not making significant advances west of Hulyaipole despite this prioritization. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on April 10 that the Russian military command appears to be prioritizing conducting offensive operations in the area of operations of the Russian 5th Combined Arms Army (CAA, Eastern Military District [EMD]), which comprises the area west of Hulyaipole, over stabilizing the situation in the areas of operations (AORs) of the 29th and 36th CAAs (both EMD), which include the Oleksandrivka direction.[6] Mashovets reported that the Russian military command has assessed that the Ukrainian counterattacks in the Oleksandrivka direction, which threaten the operational rear of the 5th CAA attempting to advance west of Hulyaipole toward Orikhiv, do not pose a sufficient threat for the Russian military command to reprioritize the defensive effort to the east over the offensive effort to the west. Russian forces have made only limited advances near Hulyaipole in recent days despite this reported prioritization; rather, ISW has observed multiple instances of Ukrainian forces continuing to advance in this area in recent days.[7] Mashovets noted that the Russian military command directed more reinforcements to the AOR of the 5th CAA, including elements of the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet), 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (68th Army Corps [AC], EMD), and 38th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (35th CAA, EMD), while the command only redeployed elements of the 120th Naval Infantry Division (Baltic Fleet) and 69th Separate Covering Brigade (35th CAA) to the AORs of the 36th and 29th CAAs.[8] Mashovets noted that elements of the 120th Naval Infantry Regiment lead counterattacks toward Oleksandrohrad and Sichneve (both east of Oleksandrivka) and defensive efforts near Voskresnka (east of Sichneve) and Sichneve, but that this effort has not yielded gains for Russian forces, as Ukrainian forces continue counterattacking in the Pryluly-Varvarivka-Oleksandrivka area (north to northwest of Hulyaipole).
Russian forces are reportedly pulling from their strategic reserves to reinforce their efforts in Ukraine, but do not appear to be using these reserves to reinforce their identified priority effort in Donetsk Oblast. Mashovets reported that Russian forces appear to be deploying strategic reserves to the Oleksandrivka, Hulyaipole, and Zaporizhia directions, as the 5th CAA operating in the Hulyaipole direction and 58th CAA (Southern Military District [SMD]) fighting west of Orikhiv are in dire need of reinforcements.[9] Mashovets reported that the Russian military command intends to both increase the 5th CAA’s tempo of offensive operations in order to reach the Verkhnya Tersa-Hulyaipilske line (northwest to southwest of Hulyaipole) while defending against Ukrainian counterattacks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also reported that Russian forces have likely begun committing strategic reserves, as Ukrainian forces continue to inflict similar casualty rates on Russian forces, but the size of the Russian force grouping in Ukraine continues to increase.[10] Zelensky noted that Russian forces set a deadline to seize Druzhkivka, Kostyantynivka, and Pokrovsk — the first two of which are part of Ukraine’s Fortress Belt line in Donetsk Oblast — by the end of April 2026.[11] Russian forces have largely taken Pokrovsk but will not meet this deadline for Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka, however. ISW continues to assess that Ukrainian counterattacks in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions are disrupting Russian efforts elsewhere in the frontline, including in the Pokrovsk area and the Fortress Belt, especially as Russian forces continue efforts to gain momentum in the Spring-Summer 2026 offensive.[12] These counterattacks have presented the Russian military command with dilemmas that have overstretched Russian forces, including forcing the Russian military command to redeploy forces away from instead of toward their priority effort against the Fortress Belt, and the Russian military command appears to be trying to alleviate some of these dilemmas by pulling from strategic reserves.[13] Pulling from these reserves so far has not resulted in tactically-significant gains for Russia, however, and Ukraine appears to have forced Russia to field these reserves in an area far from its main operational objective for the spring-summer offens