tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-338784302009-07-17T13:37:04.360-05:00The diary of a market speculator who trades stocks and commodities using technical analysis, chart patterns and trend following methods. I can be contacted at <a href="mailto:SinghJD1@aol.com">SinghJD1@aol.com</a>The Market Speculatorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15108816250543774083noreply@blogger.comBlogger1090125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-13217738194668531302009-07-17T13:32:00.003-05:002009-07-17T13:37:04.401-05:002009-07-17T13:37:04.401-05:00

AAPL is showing a negative divergence and is extremely extended at new highs. I am short with a tight stop.

marketspeculatortradereporthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09638433252009740656noreply@blogger.com0http://themarketspeculator.blogspot.com/2009/07/short-apple-setup.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-66858530033015988702009-07-17T12:33:00.004-05:002009-07-17T12:49:42.076-05:002009-07-17T12:49:42.076-05:00

A few buddies and I were debating our "all-time" baseball team. This is going back to when we started watching (early 80s). Nobody we haven't gown up with is allowed:C: Joe Mauer1B: Albert Pujols2B: Joe MorganSS: Alex Rodriguez3B: Mike SchmidtRF: Ichiro Suzuki (torn betwen him, Reggie Jackson, Vlad and Tony Gwynn)CF: Ken Griffey Jr LF: Ricky Henderson (toughest position with Bonds, Yaz,

market speculatorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17740562928448160218noreply@blogger.com0http://themarketspeculator.blogspot.com/2009/07/ot-my-all-time-baseball-team.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-23822239137231630322009-07-16T16:15:00.003-05:002009-07-16T16:17:13.569-05:002009-07-16T16:17:13.569-05:00

While them market is too extended for my to add to my long positions (report members know that I was long before the move using the oversold bounce strategy), there are some low risk short setups among inverse ETFs.

marketspeculatortradereporthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09638433252009740656noreply@blogger.com0http://themarketspeculator.blogspot.com/2009/07/too-extended-to-enter-longs.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-74014921558733782532009-07-14T10:51:00.003-05:002009-07-14T10:54:54.481-05:002009-07-14T10:54:54.481-05:00

As long as the head and shoulders pattern holds, I remain ready to initiate shorts on a bounce.

The Market Speculatorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15108816250543774083noreply@blogger.com0http://themarketspeculator.blogspot.com/2009/07/head-and-shoulders-pattern-is-still.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-15312449421830300452009-07-13T10:44:00.002-05:002009-07-13T10:46:13.588-05:002009-07-13T10:46:13.588-05:00

I entered two trades today. PALM is a trend pullback setup and BRE is oversold bounce.

marketspeculatortradereporthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09638433252009740656noreply@blogger.com0http://themarketspeculator.blogspot.com/2009/07/charts-bre-and-palm.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-16155663064537306112009-07-09T10:09:00.003-05:002009-07-09T10:12:49.873-05:002009-07-09T10:12:49.873-05:00

As noted in the alert to subscribers yesterday, I entered FWLT at $19.03. The stock is extremely oversold and due for a snapback.

marketspeculatortradereporthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09638433252009740656noreply@blogger.com0http://themarketspeculator.blogspot.com/2009/07/trade-fwlt.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-62263548863535191672009-07-08T01:05:00.003-05:002009-07-08T01:10:03.684-05:002009-07-08T01:10:03.684-05:00

1. SPY has decent long entry here at support. Tight stop.2. Short SPY and watchlist stocks on bounce.3. Many watchlist short setups can be entered long as snapback trades if we get major weakness in the coming days.4. Tech looks bad. Short Qs on stength.

marketspeculatortradereporthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09638433252009740656noreply@blogger.com0http://themarketspeculator.blogspot.com/2009/07/quick-hit-game-plan.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-23035811875617233362009-07-07T01:01:00.001-05:002009-07-07T01:02:58.109-05:002009-07-07T01:02:58.109-05:00

No prize to the winner . . .

marketspeculatortradereporthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09638433252009740656noreply@blogger.com0http://themarketspeculator.blogspot.com/2009/07/guess-why-i-like-kss.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-54579605505473109382009-07-06T09:44:00.003-05:002009-07-06T09:46:12.808-05:002009-07-06T09:46:12.808-05:00

Here is the report I sent to subscribers to start the trading week.http://docs.google.com/View?id=d5z8q8w_1145dtxkzjcpA lot more longs than shorts, which is a clue for the overall market.

marketspeculatortradereporthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09638433252009740656noreply@blogger.com0http://themarketspeculator.blogspot.com/2009/07/mondays-free-trade-report.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-57670947417050388182009-07-03T12:29:00.001-05:002009-07-03T12:31:01.595-05:002009-07-03T12:31:01.595-05:00

Chart shows extreme oversold conditions. Entry as close to $70 support line as possible. Tight stop.

marketspeculatortradereporthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09638433252009740656noreply@blogger.com0http://themarketspeculator.blogspot.com/2009/07/mon-oversold-trade.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-34975715375620602722009-06-30T11:39:00.002-05:002009-06-30T11:44:40.275-05:002009-06-30T11:44:40.275-05:00

Yesterday I posted a chart of GS and asked what the chart tells us. GS is showing a clear negative divergence right at resistance. This signals a pullback at resistance, or if the R level does break, a pattern failure post breakout.Short entry can be made under R, or post breakout. As noted to Trade Report members, I went short yesterday under the R level at $149.12.

marketspeculatortradereporthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09638433252009740656noreply@blogger.com0http://themarketspeculator.blogspot.com/2009/06/answer-is-negative-divergence.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-41064759756672529462009-06-29T21:37:00.003-05:002009-06-29T21:41:44.661-05:002009-06-29T21:41:44.661-05:00

The GS chart is giving some clear signals, right?

marketspeculatortradereporthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09638433252009740656noreply@blogger.com2http://themarketspeculator.blogspot.com/2009/06/what-does-gs-chart-tell-you.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-38850629621086786292009-06-29T11:00:00.003-05:002009-06-29T11:29:37.646-05:002009-06-29T11:29:37.646-05:00

RIMM is at the top of my focus list for shorts. Notice the bear flag formation and bear flag that has formed under the 50 day moving average. The volume pattern is also showing distribution, with heavy volume on the recent drop.

market speculatorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17740562928448160218noreply@blogger.com0http://themarketspeculator.blogspot.com/2009/06/rimm-showing-bear-flag-and-distribution.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-62324846125884829372009-06-25T10:08:00.004-05:002009-06-25T10:12:36.521-05:002009-06-25T10:12:36.521-05:00

I made two speculative trades today, short FCX and long MON. MON is oversold, but still a few points from support. The higher probability setup is to enter long at $70, which I will do if I get stopped out of this trade. FCX shows a bearish pattern, but has bounced over the 50 day moving average.Both trades are low risk, but average probability. Obviously I am using tight stops for these

marketspeculatortradereporthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09638433252009740656noreply@blogger.com0http://themarketspeculator.blogspot.com/2009/06/todays-trades-fcx-and-mon.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-6289425581964336762009-06-24T13:36:00.006-05:002009-06-24T14:09:43.064-05:002009-06-24T14:09:43.064-05:00

Complex systems are rarely predictable. For this reason, I focus as much on risk in my trading systems as I do stock picking and setups. In most disciplines that try to predict the future, the so-called experts aren't much better than a novice. This series highlights this point. Example 1:In the 1979 NBA draft, Larry Bird was drafted 6th overall. Considered of the the greatest players in NBA

marketspeculatortradereporthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09638433252009740656noreply@blogger.com0http://themarketspeculator.blogspot.com/2009/06/experts-get-it-wrong-example-1.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-42134904495540363492009-06-24T12:56:00.002-05:002009-06-24T12:57:58.637-05:002009-06-24T12:57:58.637-05:00

Another day of bounce would setup the perfect short in ACI:

marketspeculatortradereporthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09638433252009740656noreply@blogger.com0http://themarketspeculator.blogspot.com/2009/06/short-setup-aci.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-15200629120010676912009-06-23T10:12:00.003-05:002009-06-23T10:15:55.862-05:002009-06-23T10:15:55.862-05:00

AMZN has broke down below the 50 day moving average and shows a negative volume pattern. RSI has also broke down. Looking for entry on bounce, which would provide a low risk setup.

marketspeculatortradereporthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09638433252009740656noreply@blogger.com0http://themarketspeculator.blogspot.com/2009/06/short-setup-amzn.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-21670490920461990122009-06-18T10:01:00.002-05:002009-06-18T10:07:24.621-05:002009-06-18T10:07:24.621-05:00

As noted to trade report members yesterday I entered SPY at $91.61 and DIG at $28.33.The SPY trade is based on anticipation of a morning star candle formation completing. Small loss if stopped out. Potential for big gain.DIG anticipates oversold bounce on test of moving average.

marketspeculatortradereporthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09638433252009740656noreply@blogger.com0http://themarketspeculator.blogspot.com/2009/06/trade-update-spy-and-dig.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-86415910204533919192009-06-17T16:19:00.002-05:002009-06-17T16:20:39.649-05:002009-06-17T16:20:39.649-05:00

marketspeculatortradereporthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09638433252009740656noreply@blogger.com0http://themarketspeculator.blogspot.com/2009/06/trend-pullback-vprt.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-9380767968004143482009-06-16T21:15:00.001-05:002009-06-16T21:15:07.521-05:002009-06-16T21:15:07.521-05:00

I will send an intra-day report to members tomorrow.

marketspeculatortradereporthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09638433252009740656noreply@blogger.com0http://themarketspeculator.blogspot.com/2009/06/no-trade-report-tonight.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-48942943980961875472009-06-16T12:22:00.003-05:002009-06-16T12:24:13.875-05:002009-06-16T12:24:13.875-05:00

market speculatorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17740562928448160218noreply@blogger.com0http://themarketspeculator.blogspot.com/2009/06/another-spy-chart.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-62388147197940765312009-06-15T10:09:00.004-05:002009-06-15T11:21:21.782-05:002009-06-15T11:21:21.782-05:00

Since joining Twitter, I've had a number of conversations with Trade Report members who also use twitter. I've found a common mistake between twitter users, and that is over-trading and not understanding time frames.Yesterday, a member told me he had entered one of my focus list stocks. I asked him why, since it was not near the entry point that I had suggested. He said somebody that he follows

marketspeculatortradereporthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09638433252009740656noreply@blogger.com0http://themarketspeculator.blogspot.com/2009/06/on-time-frames-and-over-trading.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-41024280587517233322009-06-15T00:19:00.001-05:002009-06-15T00:22:17.316-05:002009-06-15T00:22:17.316-05:00

marketspeculatortradereporthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09638433252009740656noreply@blogger.com0http://themarketspeculator.blogspot.com/2009/06/spy-chart-shows-developing-bottom.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-85789088231395793502009-06-12T10:06:00.002-05:002009-06-12T10:08:34.515-05:002009-06-12T10:08:34.515-05:00

I exited the remaining position in the AAPL short trade at $37.44. The stock is now near a decent support area and may be set to bounce. Keep an eye on the bounce. If it's on weak volume, we'll get another good short opportunity via a "dead cat bounce". Right now, the volume pattern is showing strong distribution.

market speculatorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17740562928448160218noreply@blogger.com0http://themarketspeculator.blogspot.com/2009/06/exiting-apple-short-trade.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33878430.post-40499138367173705172009-06-11T09:30:00.002-05:002009-06-11T09:34:00.161-05:002009-06-11T09:34:00.161-05:00

Biotech has made a nice run and has pulled back to a nice entry level. I already have a position, with a stop placed under the pivot point.Stop placement is tricky since the pivot area is near the 50 day moving average, which also provided a good entry. If one has an appetite for taking more risk, the stop can be placed under the moving average.

marketspeculatortradereporthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09638433252009740656noreply@blogger.com0http://themarketspeculator.blogspot.com/2009/06/xbi-chart.html