In the Philippines, there are health and development programs that specifically target children, senior citizens, and adults, said Joan Castro, but adolescents are underserved. Nineteen percent of the population is between the ages of 15 and 19, but “they can’t even go to health centers to get the family planning commodities [they desire],” she said. [Video Below]

Castro is the executive vice president of PATH Foundation Philippines, Inc. (PFPI), which works to improve reproductive health and promote environmentally sustainable development. She was joined at the Wilson Center on April 30 by Leslie Mwinnyaa to talk about youth-focused population, health, and environment (PHE) programs in the Philippines and Ghana.

Relying on Peer Educators

Mwinnyaa, a Peace Corps volunteer, works with the Integrated Coastal Fisheries Governance Initiative – nicknamed Hen Mpoano, or “our coast” – in the Ellembelle district of western Ghana. Ellembelle holds one of the most biologically rich ecosystems in Ghana: the Amanzule wetlands. But the wetlands have no formal protected status and the ecosystem – as well as the people who depend on it – is threatened by degradation, green algae blooms, climate change, and the rapid development of oil and gas extraction.

When Mwinnyaa arrived, she saw the possibility of combining Hen Mpoano’s more traditional focus on coastal resource management with health goals. Ellembelle has higher than average rates of teenage pregnancy – 14 percent of teenage girls become pregnant, compared to 7 percent of girls nationally, Mwinnyaa said – and there are many misconceptions about adolescent sexual and reproductive health. Through the University of Rhode Island’s Coastal Resources Center, she reached out to the BALANCED Project for information about developing a population, health, and environment (PHE) framework for Hen Mpoano, as well as local schools and the nearby Esiama Community Health Nurses Training School, as potential partners.

She found willing partners on all sides. Hen Mpoano began implementing adolescent reproductive health programming in the nurses’ school with the enthusiastic support of its principal, who was “really interested in collaboration on PHE activities,” said Mwinnyaa. Mwinnyaa herself began teaching an adolescent sexual and reproductive health class geared at clearing up misconceptions about contraceptive use.

“In Ghana…they understand that there’s a problem with teenage pregnancy and sexual activity and yet they have a negative idea of adolescents using contraceptives, so we’ve been working to reduce that stigma and those misconceptions,” she said.

The principal of the Esiama nursing school also suggested that “students could act as a conduit to disseminate PHE messages to coastal areas throughout the district.” Over the past year and a half, Mwinnyaa said, 300 nursing students have completed voluntary PHE training and 80 have participated in regular outreach trips to coastal villages. Students try to reach each of the 18 coastal villages in the area at least once a month to educate community members, especially other young people, about PHE issues like natural resource management, sanitation, and reproductive health.

Students in the nursing school also rely on members of PHE clubs in local grade schools to guide them around villages. Hen Mpoano has established clubs in four high schools and 26 junior high schools. Members serve as peer educators trained to talk about PHE issues ranging from HIV/AIDS to natural resource management, taking these messages both to their classmates and other schools.

Through Livelihoods, a Connection to the Environment and Health

The Philippines experiences similar challenges to Ellembelle. Like Ghana, coastal resource management is incredibly important and lack of access to basic health services and contraception is widespread. Like Ghana, more than half the population is under 25.

PFPI decided to survey young people and their parents to find out what they saw as their main challenges to happy and productive lives and build a PHE project that would focus on those concerns, Castro said.

“Despite the fact that education among Filipinos is pretty high – we have above 90 percent literacy rate,” Castro said, “there’s a struggle with unemployment,” especially for “youth that have not finished secondary school and don’t have any skills.” As a result, PFPI developed Project EMPOWER, with “a strong emphasis [on] providing skills and training and linking these youth to livelihood programs, which was found to be a very strong need expressed by the youth and their parents.”

The project trains young people in environmentally sustainable livelihoods, including catering businesses and massage therapy, and also identifies leaders in the community to become peer educators, helping other young people understand and access reproductive health services. With the consent of their parents, Castro said, these peer educators distribute contraceptives when asked for them, but don’t actively promote themselves as distributors.

Castro said the livelihoods component of the program is key to maintaining the interest of young people. “Providing livelihood skills training and opportunities to initiate [environmentally-friendly] micro-enterprises helped to reinforce their commitment to conservation work while enabling the youth to become economically productive members of society,” she said.

Youth As Allies

Family planning is a sensitive issue in the Philippines. Opposition from the Catholic Church has contributed to heavy restrictions on access in some places and the stalled passage of a national reproductive health bill (introduced in 2001, passed in December 2012, implementation temporarily frozen by the Supreme Court in 2013). But addressing the health and development needs of young people necessarily includes reproductive health, especially for those at high risk of teen pregnancy, and Castro said that PFPI finds young people understand this and are very receptive to understanding the links between their own livelihoods and the environment.

The Hen Mpoano program also faces challenges, but of a different variety. Mwinnyaa said the high cost of fuel for transportation of student nurses to coastal communities is a problem, as is the reluctance of adults in communities to volunteer for PHE activities. There are also currently no plans for another Peace Corps volunteer to take her place after her term is completed.

But Mwinnyaa noted that programs targeting young people can take advantage of not only their numbers, but also their enthusiasm. “We have found great success in finding youth who are willing to volunteer,” she said. “These youth are so highly motivated, and they work diligently in their responsibilities as peer educators.”

“These youth will definitely ensure the project’s continuation in this region,” Mwinnyaa said. “I have been amazed and inspired by the youth that I’ve worked with, with their dedication and motivation to help their countrymen and to try to make their communities better places.”

Event Resources:

• Joan Castro’s Presentation
• Leslie Mwinnyaa’s Presentation
• Photo Gallery
• Video

 Photo Credit: Fishermen pulling in nets in Cape Coast, courtesy of flickr user See Wah Cheng.

‘Toward Resilience’ is a series on the meaning of global resilience and vulnerability today.

Today, the Sahara Desert is a vast, nearly lifeless expanse of sand and rock. But ancient cave paintings tell of a time when it was fertile grassland and bands of human hunters chased aurochs and antelope.

The shift from grassland to desert happened, geologically speaking, overnight. About 5,500 years ago, a wobble in Earth’s orbit catalyzed ecosystem changes that caused the Sahara to go from green to brown in a matter of centuries or even decades.

Environmental change, scientists have learned, is not always gradual and linear. Instead, a series of small modifications can push a system to a “tipping point,” where it flips, quite suddenly, from one state to another. And many believe that human population dynamics are an increasingly important variable in environmental change, at local, regional, and global scales.

In previous millennia, the Earth was transformed by massive forces of nature – volcanic eruptions, solar flares, the clash of continents. Today, human beings may be the most powerful force of environmental change. Our numbers more than quadrupled over the last century, hitting seven billion in 2011. Resource consumption, at least in the affluent countries, has skyrocketed. More people are living in  environmentally fragile regions, such as coastal areas. Together, these dynamics are reshaping natural systems as never before.

Of course, there are vast disparities in environmental impact among humans. But, collectively, we have altered the biosphere to the point that some have named our era the Anthropocene, or “age of man.” According to some measures, more than 80 percent of the Earth’s land is under direct human control, and we appropriate a fifth of the planet’s biomass for our use. Human emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases are warming the planet and acidifying the oceans. And, because of human activity, we are now in the midst of the biggest wave of extinctions since the end of the dinosaurs.

Beyond IPAT

What is the relationship between population dynamics and environmental change – and what does that connection bode for the future?

Generations of environmental studies students learned that environmental impact (I) is the sum of population size (P) times per capita affluence level (A) times the impact of technologies (T). This is the “IPAT” equation: I = P x A x T.

Today, however, we know it’s not that simple. IPAT is a useful reminder that population, consumption, and technology all help shape our environmental footprint. But it is misleading if taken too literally, writes University of California, Berkeley, ecologist John Harte in A Pivotal Moment.  As Harte observes, “[IPAT] conveys the notion that population is a linear multiplier….In reality, population plays a much more dynamic and complex role in shaping environmental quality.”

Non-linear effects, including thresholds and feedbacks, can amplify the environmental impact of human numbers, writes Harte. For example, a species may depend on a certain amount of intact habitat to survive. As human settlements encroach, a threshold is eventually crossed, and the species will, sometimes quite suddenly (within a generation or two), collapse.

Feedback loops can also fast-forward environmental damage. A classic example is the loss of “albedo”: on a warming planet, there is less ice and snow to reflect heat back to space, so more sunlight is absorbed by the Earth’s surface, which intensifies warming. Harte observes that many feedbacks are fueled by population dynamics. For example, warming accelerates the decomposition of organic matter in cultivated soil. That decomposition, in turn, releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, which speeds even more warming. Because more people generally means more cultivated land, population growth affects the intensity of this feedback effect.

Tipping Points: Global and Local

Could the growing human presence on the planet – both in terms of numbers and consumption – trigger global tipping points, with disastrous consequences? Some observers think so.

In 2009, a team of scientists led by Johan Rockström, executive director of the Stockholm Resilience Center, set out to delineate a “safe operating space for humanity.” They identified10 biophysical boundaries that must not be transgressed if we wish to preserve a habitable planet. Rockström and his colleagues found that three of the boundaries – for climate change, biodiversity loss, and global nitrogen – have already been crossed.

Last year, University of California, Berkeley, paleoecologist Anthony Barnosky and colleagues warned of an approaching “state shift” in the Earth’s biosphere. As Barnosky told Science Daily, “the data suggest that there will be a reduction in biodiversity and severe impacts on much of what we depend on to sustain our quality of life, including, for example, fisheries, agriculture, forest products, and clean water. This could happen within just a few generations.”

Others remain skeptical. A study led by Barry Brook, director of climate science at the University of Adelaide, found that global-scale ecological tipping points are unlikely – in part because ecosystems on different continents are not strongly connected. And a paper by the Breakthrough Institute charged that the global boundaries set by Rockström and colleagues are somewhat arbitrary.

But while the notion of global tipping points remains controversial, there is no doubt that such thresholds exist at the local and regional levels. Across the planet, human activity is pushing many natural systems beyond the point of no return.

For example, the Mato Grosso region of the Amazon rainforest may soon be “on a one-way route to becoming a dry and relatively barren savannah,” according to the New Scientist. And record-breaking declines in the extent and volume of sea ice signal that an ice-free summer Arctic may be near.

Such local and regional shifts could have grim implications for human well-being. New research shows that human-induced climate change could dramatically reduce crop yields in many parts of the world, at a time when global food production must increase by 70 percent to keep pace with demand. Tufts University economists Frank Ackerman and Elizabeth A. Stanton found that “global warming is now causing unprecedentedly rapid changes in the climate conditions that affect agriculture – much faster than crops can evolve on their own, and probably too fast for the traditional processes of trial-and-error adaptation by farmers….Within a few decades, business as usual climate change would reach levels at which adaptation is no longer possible.”

Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, has identified a series of regional climate tipping points that, together or separately, could shift the global climate into a new – and inhospitable – state.

The Time Is Now

It is not too late to step back from the brink. Authors of the tipping-point studies call for a range of interventions: limiting climate change, low-carbon approaches to development, better ecosystem management, and measures to voluntarily slow population growth where it is still rapid, such as encouraging girls’ education and universal access to family planning and reproductive health.

If we fail to scale back our impact, the cumulative effect of many small changes could be a planet that is virtually unrecognizable. “What features establish the identity of a face?” asks Schellnhuber. “What distortions erase that identity beyond recognition?”

Back when the Sahara was a green and fertile grassland, its human inhabitants had no way of knowing their world was about to change. Today, we have an increasingly sophisticated set of tools with which to survey our environment and measure our own impact. While our capacity to predict the future remains imperfect, we should consider ourselves warned.

Laurie Mazur is a consultant on population and the environment for the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program and a writer and consultant to non-profit organizations. She is the editor, most recently, of A Pivotal Moment: Population, Justice and the Environmental Challenge.

Sources: The Bill and Melinda Gates Institute for Population and Reproductive Health, Breakthrough Institute, Ecosystem, Food and Agriculture Organization, Haberl et al. (2012), Los Angeles Times, Mazur (2009), Nature, New Scientist, New Yorker, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Reuters, Royal Society, Science Daily, Stockholm Environment Institute, Trends in Ecology and Evolution, Tufts University, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, UN Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, UN Population Division, World Bank, Worldwatch Institute, Yale Environment 360.

Photo Credit: Ruins of a fort in Libya, courtesy of flickr user gordontour.

Several high-profile reports in the last few months have suggested that climate change and natural resource scarcity contributed to the events that have rocked the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) since December 2010. Thomas Friedman is apparently working on a Showtime documentary about the topic. But what exactly was the role of environmental factors in the mass movement?

According to the authors of The Arab Spring and Climate Change, a series of essays edited by Caitlin E. Werrell and Francesco Femia and jointly published by the Center for American Progress, Stimson Center, and Center for Climate and Security, while political uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, and elsewhere were a direct response to oppressive governments and social dissatisfaction, climate change may have acted as a “threat multiplier,” further exacerbating the underlying causes of revolution.

“Global warming may not have caused the Arab Spring, but it may have made it come earlier,” write Sarah Johnstone and Jeffrey Mazo of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in one essay.

Another report, Underpinning the MENA Democratic Transition, published by E3G, cautions that economic shocks driven by climate change and resource scarcity in the region could challenge fledgling democracies. “Failing to invest in preventive measures now will generate future risks that require additional government capacity to manage,” they write.

“Ag-flation”

“The world is entering a period of ‘ag-flation,’ or inflation driven by rising prices for agricultural commodities,” warn Johnstone and Mazo.

Egyptians, for example, depend on bread for one-third of their caloric intake and spend an average of 38 percent of their income on food, writes Troy Sternberg of Oxford University in The Arab Spring and Climate Change, but the country’s arid climate and poor resource management means it cannot produce enough wheat for domestic demand. As a result, Egypt is the world’s largest wheat importer, buying 9.8 million metric tons in 2010.

In the winter of 2010 and 2011, China – the world’s largest wheat producer – was struck by a “once-in-a-century” drought. At the same time, wheat production in Russia, Ukraine, and Canada also fell dramatically due to drought, wildfires, and abnormal cold (Canada). With global wheat supplies constricted, the Egyptian government failed to balance subsidies and market prices with public needs. According to research by Johnstone and Mazo, at the time of the uprisings in early 2011, food prices had increased by 20 percent, and 40 million Egyptians – about half of the population – were receiving food rations.

“We have reached the point where a regional climate event can have a global extent,” writes Sternberg. Nine of the top ten wheat-importing countries per capita in the world are in the Middle East, and seven of those countries experienced violent political protests in 2011.

“The failure by governments in the region to ensure their citizens’ food security during the 2010 price spike undermined any residual legitimacy of regimes rife with corruption and unable to effectively address poverty and unemployment,” Nick Mabey and his co-authors write in Underpinning the MENA Democratic Transition.

Reducing the Vulnerability of New Democracies

Climate change not only contributed to the timing of the Arab Spring, argue Mabey et al., but it may also impede the spread of democracy moving forward.

While international attention has been focused on building democratic institutions, stabilizing living standards should be a higher priority, they write. New democracies are especially vulnerable to economic shocks, and, as demonstrated by the events of 2010 and 2011, livelihoods in Middle East and North Africa are uniquely affected by climate change and food price spikes. Investments in energy, water, and food security therefore have the potential to have outsized effects on living standards and in turn the chances of democracy surviving, they argue.

Why is the region so vulnerable? Because in addition to the environmental challenges already present, especially drastic changes in resource availability are projected for the near future:

Tunisia, for example, will see a decrease in available drinking water of 30 percent by 2030; increases in the likelihood of crop season failure of over 50 percent by 2050; and over five percent of its population would be impacted by a one meter sea level rise. Egypt’s concentration of industry and population in the Nile Delta makes it the third most vulnerable developing country in the world to sea level rise. There are also potential risks from international disputes over the Nile Basin management as water flows become more volatile and upstream countries drier due to climate change. … Modeling suggests that major import crops like wheat are likely to increase in price by up to 80 percent by 2030 due to growing global demand; climate change could increase prices by a further 40 percent.

To support democracy, Mabey et al. write, “development strategies in the region need to focus more strongly on building economic and social resilience alongside broader-based economic growth.”

Water and Migration in Syria and Libya

In Syria, drought, crop failure, and internal displacement helped mobilize the opposition movement to the brutal regime of Bashir al-Assad, argue Femia and Werrell in The Arab Spring and Climate Change.

From 2006 to 2011, Syria experienced what one expert called “the worst long-term drought and most severe set of crop failures since agricultural civilizations began in the Fertile Crescent many millennia ago.” A UNDP report found that nearly 75 percent of farmers in northeastern Syria experienced total crop failure and herders lost 85 percent of their livestock. Another United Nations report found that more than 800,000 Syrians “lost their entire livelihoods” as a result of the droughts.

The reduction of Syria’s farm and herding land resulted in a rural-to-urban migration movement that put “significant strains on Syria’s economically depressed cities, which incidentally have their own water-infrastructure deficiencies,” write Femia and Werrell. Displaced farmers also have to compete for access to employment, housing, and resources with the more than 260,000 Iraqi refugees residing in Syria – and now the more than 2.5 million Syrians displaced as a result of the civil war.

However, Syria’s scarcity issues are not just climate-induced. “The Assad regime has, by most accounts except its own, criminally combined mismanagement and neglect of Syria’s natural resources, which has contributed to water shortages and land desertification,” write Femia and Werrell. For example, they point out that the number of well-tapping aquifers in the country jumped from 135,000 in 1999 to 213,000 by 2007, which has led to over-pumping in much of the country and drastically reduced groundwater supplies.

“As previously fertile lands turn to dust,” they write, “farmers and herders have had no choice but to move elsewhere, starve, or demand change.”

Water may be key in Libya too. Data from 2009 showed that Libyans had access to only 95.8 cubic meters of freshwater per capita, remarkably lower than the regional average of 400 cubic meters and dramatically lower than the global average of 6,258 cubic meters per capita.

Libya has a large migrant population of nearly 700,000 – roughly 10 percent of the total population – many of whom have emigrated from sub-Saharan Africa and the Sahel because of environmental issues in their homelands.

In the post-Qaddafi era, Femia and Werrell stress the urgency of developing a water-resource management program: “It may be the less overtly political issues such as climate change and water-resource management that hold the key to building unity,” they write.

Taking the Environment Into Consideration

The ultimate drivers of the Arab Spring were decades of disenfranchisement and depressed human potential by autocratic governments. But why the movement started when it did – which took many by surprise – is still unanswered.

Femia and Werrell make the case that the interaction between climate change and food prices played an important role in that respect. While the Arab Spring “has a multitude of ultimate and proximate causes,” they write, “it is increasingly clear that global and regional climatic changes have played a role in multiplying stress in the region, and that the consequences of climate change will have to be properly addressed by the affected governments, as well as the international community, as these Arab nations rebuild.”

Mabey et al. as well as David Michel and Mona Yacoubian of the Stimson Center in The Arab Spring and Climate Change argue that addressing those resource vulnerabilities are key for the future.

“Creative strategies to address [economic and environmental strains] could both unlock sizeable potential for economic growth and job creation, and help mitigate mounting risks to essential ecosystems and natural resources, turning two of the region’s pre-eminent challenges into a significant opportunity,” write Michel and Yacoubian. For example, governments could finance retrofitting campaigns in urban centers to make buildings more energy efficient, which could “create four million jobs and pay for itself in two to seven years by trimming costly resource consumption.”

The Arab Spring has overturned the power structure of one of the most important geostrategic and fastest growing regions in the world. The support of major donors, governments, and development banks in the wake of revolutions and unrest has been substantial, but better targeting of those investments – to promote food and energy security and resilience to climate change as well – could allow them to go much further, strengthening gains in democratic governance and fostering continued change.

Sources: Assessment Capacities Project, Center for American Progress, Center for Climate and Security, E3G, Grist, IRIN News, Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, Oxfam, Stimson Center, UN Development Program, UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, UN Population Division.

Photo Credit: “Freedom,” courtesy of flickr user seven_resist. Charts: Troy Sternberg/The Arab Spring and Climate Change; Oxfam/E3G.

The original version of this article appeared on the Environment, Conflict, and Cooperation (ECC) Platform.

Climate-induced migration in Mexico is a complex issue and the future impact of this phenomenon is neither clear nor agreed upon. The Environment, Conflict and Cooperation (ECC) team talked to Elizabeth Deheza from the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies. She and Jorge Mora are the authors of the recent study “Climate Change, Migration and Security: Best-Practice Policy and Operational Options for Mexico.”

ECC: How will climate change impact migratory patterns within Mexico and associated security issues?

Temperatures in Mexico are rising, precipitation levels are falling, and the increasing frequency and intensity of flooding and extreme weather events pose serious threats to water, food, and energy security. In turn, the availability of and competition over these key resources will alter the spatial distribution of people in Mexico.

Our Whitehall Report investigates possible linkages between environmental changes, migration, and its repercussions concerning national and human security in Mexico. Controversial suggestions from the academic cluster have predicted that climate change could drive millions of people to migrate from the effects of severe drought, floods, and extreme weather events, triggering major security concerns and a spike in regional tensions. Such controversial statements really sparked our attention and inspired us to further understand and quantify the climate-migration-security nexus.

Continue reading on the ECC Platform.

Photo Credit: Elizabeth Deheza at the Wilson Center, courtesy of Schuyler Null/Wilson Center.

“I have been amazed and inspired by the youth that I’ve worked with, with their dedication and motivation to help their countrymen and to try to make their communities better places,” says Leslie Mwinnyaa in this week’s podcast.

When Mwinnyaa arrived in the Ellembelle district of coastal Ghana as a Peace Corps volunteer she found a multitude of development challenges. Fishermen routinely use illegal techniques like chemicals, lights, and dynamite that decimate fish stocks; “sand winning” and mangrove clearing increases erosion, leaving communities vulnerable to flooding and reducing breeding grounds for local fish; poor waste and refuse management contributes to disease and poor health; and teenage girls have twice the national rate of pregnancy.

“I have been amazed and inspired by the youth that I’ve worked with, with their dedication and motivation to help their countrymen and to try to make their communities better places,” says Leslie Mwinnyaa in this week’s podcast.

When Mwinnyaa arrived in the Ellembelle district of coastal Ghana as a Peace Corps volunteer she found a multitude of development challenges. Fishermen routinely use illegal techniques like chemicals, lights, and dynamite that decimate fish stocks; “sand winning” and mangrove clearing increases erosion, leaving communities vulnerable to flooding and reducing breeding grounds for local fish; poor waste and refuse management contributes to disease and poor health; and teenage girls have twice the national rate of pregnancy.

To address these connected issues she enlisted the help of the BALANCED Project, an NGO based out of the University of Rhode Island’s Coastal Resources Center, and reached out to local partners, including a local nursing school, to develop an integrated population, health, and environment (PHE) program. The resulting Hen Mpoano, or “our coast,” project trains young nursing students to be advocates for reproductive health (especially for other young people), natural resource management, and sanitation. Hen Mpoano has established clubs in four high schools and 26 junior high schools.

“Communities have continued to express their appreciation for the PHE project. It has really been a vehicle for outreach programs at the community level,” Mwinnyaa says. “It has opened the door for communication about illegal fishing, sand winning, reproductive health, and environmental sanitation.”

Mwinnyaa spoke at the Wilson Center on April 30 as part of a conversation about youth and PHE.

Friday podcasts are also available for download from iTunes.

Excerpted below is the introduction to ECSP Report 14, Issue Two.

Amid the growing number of reports warning that climate change could threaten national security, another potentially dangerous – but counterintuitive – dimension has been largely ignored. Could efforts to reduce our carbon footprint and lower our vulnerability to climate change inadvertently exacerbate existing conflicts – or create new ones?

If designed or implemented without consideration for conflict potential, unforeseen negative spillover effects might damage economic development prospects, undermine political stability, or fray the social fabric of communities. How can policymakers anticipate and minimize these potential risks? More ambitiously, can mitigation and adaptation efforts be designed to not only avoid conflict, but also help build peace?

The potential security risks posed by mitigation and adaptation policies and technologies are intriguing and underexplored aspects of climate change responses. Backdraft: The Conflict Potential of Climate Mitigation and Adaptation draws on the insights of leading environmental security experts to examine different facets of the conflict potential of climate change mitigation and adaptation – not only physical violence, but also the broader spectrum of social and political confrontation. A parallel line of inquiry – the potential of climate mitigation and adaptation efforts to build peace and encourage cooperation – is not addressed in this series but holds great promise for future analysis.

Defining Backdraft: A New Research Program

Can subnational and transnational climate change adaptation be harnessed as a tool for peace? In their essay, “The Need for Conflict-Sensitive Adaptation to Climate Change,” Dennis Tänzler, Alexander Carius, and Achim Maas kick off Backdraft by placing different adaptation approaches in the context of current international climate talks. The authors urge policymakers to think beyond national borders in order to more effectively address the transboundary impacts of climate change in conflict settings. A series of policy recommendations provides the aid and development communities with a potential blueprint for conflict-sensitive adaptation measures.

With climate change slated to place further strain on the planet’s already overburdened natural resources, regions rich in natural wealth may find themselves increasingly drawn into conflict as competition for arable land, water, oil, and mineral wealth increases. In “Resource Curses: Redux, Ex-Post, or Ad Infinitum?” Stacy VanDeveer peers over the horizon, speculating about the fate of oil-exporting states as the world economy slowly transitions away from fossil fuels. Highlighting the complications inherent in petroleum states’ eventual transition away from an oil-based economy – a transition that will not be welcomed by OPEC member states – VanDeveer contends it is analytically important to examine how countries with significant depletions of fossil-fuel reserves have handled such transitions in the past. Using the lens of “peak oil,” he points out that a greener world energy supply might destabilize regimes traditionally propped up by oil revenue.

Turning to a vulnerable global resource threatened by both climate change and economic development, Dennis Tänzler examines the fate of woodlands in “Forests and Conflict: The Relevance of REDD+.” Focusing on the United Nations’ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) program, Tänzler explores not only REDD’s positive economic and environmental benefits for forest-rich countries in the developing world, but also highlights how such initiatives could trigger disputes over land rights, carbon ownership, and equitable distribution of REDD-related financial benefits. He concludes with a series of policy recommendations to improve the effectiveness of such initiatives through heightened incorporation of local conflict dynamics in target countries.

In “Climate Gambit: Engineering Climate Security Risks?” Achim Maas and Irina Comardicea analyze one of the most controversial aspects of climate change mitigation and adaptation – geoengineering. The technological revolution of the last 50 years has turned what was once the realm of science fiction – such as seeding clouds with chemical pellets to induce rain or burying harmful atmospheric gases deep beneath the earth – into real science. This technology is now available to any nation with the financial and physical capability to deploy it. What are the security implications of using these novel, but largely untested, technologies? Could deployment of geoengineering technology in the skies, seas, or soils of one country inadvertently impact weather or soil fertility in a neighboring country? More broadly, how can policymakers ensure that such technology, once deployed, remains under control, and does not trigger unintended impacts? Maas and Comardicea analyze both the drawbacks and positive potential of humans exercising greater control over the natural environment in the coming decades.

Stressing that climate change impacts unfold across various sectors of society and rarely occur in isolation, Chad Briggs argues in “Risk and Scenario Planning for Climate Security” that new models are needed to more accurately analyze current climate security hotspots and forecast future flashpoints. Since older notions of state security do not necessarily apply to climate change – given the long time horizons that typically characterize climate change impacts – models must incorporate system-level vulnerabilities, more tightly focused data gathering and analysis, and an understanding of how different governmental systems and adaptation measures influence climate-security outcomes.

Rounding out Backdraft are spotlights on two key emerging issues. Christian Webersik and Mikael Bergius shine a light on how measures to reduce future emissions levels by supporting the development of biofuels could affect international and human security. Christina Daggett explores the potential impacts of wealthy countries’ recent “land grabs” in developing countries on the global agricultural system and the host countries’ food and water security.

Avoiding Backdraft: Eyes Wide Open

Making a transition to a green economy in a warmer world is a necessary transition. Smart long-term thinking on climate adaptation and mitigation, and the conflict and peacebuilding potential of both, will be critical to fortifying human security in the century ahead.

Taking a systematic look at the conflict potential of mitigation and adaptation tools is an analytical and policy challenge that we must face head-on. To avoid or downplay the possibility of conflict generated or exacerbated by such changes threatens the larger project of aggressively addressing climate change.

Three key principles should inform our policy decisions on climate change adaptation and mitigation:

• Do no harm: Recognize that all interventions have the potential to exacerbate or alleviate existing tensions.
• Be open to new ideas: Improve communication and collaboration across communities and disciplines, from climate science and natural resource management experts to international development entities and the military. Intelligent adaptation and mitigation policies need flexible programs that measure their success against multiple objectives, not just one target.
• Build pathways to peace: Identify and implement climate change programs that can support peacebuilding initiatives.

The contributors to Backdraft help lay the groundwork for this emerging field. The authors examine and weigh the considerations we must bear in mind as we make the necessary transition to a greener economy. The types of tactics deployed and how they are sequenced will determine the consequences of the transition. Where applicable, we must study and incorporate evidence of past climate and conflict trends, and engage in thoughtful deductive arguments about what could happen in the coming decades.

Our future climate security interventions must be guided not only by lessons learned, but also by new models that incorporate more aspects of contemporary human security, including rapid demographic change, depleted fresh water supplies, and more erratic agricultural output, as well as political instability and fragility. In doing so, we can move forward with our eyes open to conflict dynamics around us, implementing more sustainable, more cost-effective, and ultimately more peaceful ways to adapt to and mitigate the climate challenge.

Download ECSP Report 14: “Backdraft: The Conflict Potential of Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation” from the Wilson Center.

Geoff Dabelko is the director of environmental studies at Ohio University’s Voinovich School of Leadership and Public Affairs and a senior advisor to ECSP.

Pathfinder International’s Strengthening Communities Through Integrated Programming (SCIP) is part of a new push towards integrated development – looking at communities as a whole and addressing multiple, traditionally-siloed sectors at once. SCIP integrates both its activities and its funding to great effect in Mozambique.

SCIP was slated to discuss their experience at the Wilson Center in March, but the event was canceled due to inclement weather. We did, however, manage to get this interview up. Enjoy!

What is SCIP and who are your partners?

SCIP is a five-year project begun in 2009 in Nampula province, Mozambique, designed to improve quality of life at the household and community level by improving health and nutrition status and increasing household economic viability. Funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the project combines health goals – including family planning, reproductive health, water, and sanitation – and conservation farming.

SCIP is led by Pathfinder International but incorporates efforts by Population Services International, World Relief, CARE International, Cooperative League of the United States of America, and the Mozambican government. The Governor of Nampula province has welcomed the SCIP team with enthusiasm, highlighting the tremendous potential of the project to improve health conditions in communities across the 14 focus districts. He committed to facilitating implementation by “opening the doors” with key administrators and directed SCIP to work with the Unit of Coordination for Nampula Development, which coordinates between civil society partners in the province.

What characteristics distinguish Nampula from the rest of Mozambique? Why combine health and conservation goals?

Nampula province is the most densely populated area of Mozambique. It has favorable agro-ecological conditions, with better agricultural potential than much of the country, yet poverty and poor health are pervasive.

Demographic and Health Survey data from 2003 found an infant mortality rate of 101 per 1,000 live births in Nampula, the second highest in the country. Nearly half of children under age five were found to be stunted; only 51 percent of children under one completed immunization; and female literacy was just 20 percent.

More recent surveys have found that contraceptive prevalence is very low (3.8 percent, according to a 2008 Multi-Indicator Cluster Survey), less than half the population has access to safe drinking water (43.1 percent), and HIV prevalence among people 15 to 49 years is 4.6 percent.

Land degradation, deforestation, and erosion are also major concerns for farming and food security.

Integration across health sectors, like family planning and HIV/AIDS, and between health and non-health programs, like water, sanitation, hygiene, and farming, amplifies the impact of SCIP’s programs.

How did you decide to work on integrated programming instead of taking a more traditional route?

We know that funding is generally targeted to specific technical areas: health, economic growth, environment activities, etc. Even within health funding, we have divisions between HIV prevention, treatment, and community support; maternal and child health; and family planning. In reality we know these are all best dealt with in an integrated fashion.

As such, when the original request for proposal from USAID called for both integrated activities and funding streams, we saw this as a real opportunity to bring partners together into one common organization in a coordinated manner. All the SCIP partners work in the same offices in Nampula and at district levels, sharing logistics and a common monitoring and evaluation system, which greatly facilitates communication, collaboration, and efficient use of resources.

Integration brings together common functions within and between organizations to solve common problems and develops a commitment to shared vision and goals.

SCIP’s approach to integration represents a benchmark in Mozambique, as it is deeply aligned with the National Health System’s current policy of decentralization alongside more community involvement. Integration and decentralization ensure higher chances for universal access and more control over health production.

Can you explain the role of “community leader councils”?

SCIP directs a substantial amount of effort to community-based programming. Our community-based interventions are based on close collaboration with what we call “community leader councils” (CLCs) – small units made up of existing leaders (civil, traditional, and religious), which can serve as an entry point into a community and create a favorable environment for increasing the availability of services. CLCs are really the cornerstone of integration for SCIP. They are often ideally placed to facilitate coordination across stakeholders and technical areas, and help prompt community-driven action to solve health and development problems.

As such, SCIP organizes meetings with CLCs to discuss community involvement in the 14 districts. The rate at which these CLCs review data and support community health workers is an approximation of their accountability to the people they serve, and based on a mapping exercise undertaken in August 2012, 87 percent of the 906 CLCs in the 14 districts we work in were meeting regularly.

Has the project made greater progress in one sector or another? If so, why?

The project has seen significant progress in many areas, not just one in particular. But there are particularly promising results in improving access to family planning and increasing community involvement.

Family planning services available to the districts we work in, measured in couple-years of protection (CYP – the estimated protection provided by family planning services during a one-year period, based upon the volume of all contraceptives sold or distributed free of charge to clients during that period), have increased from enough to cover just 4 percent of women of reproductive age at the end of year one to 10 percent at the end of year three.

This is rewarding to see, given the number of program activities that take place promoting family planning through all the project’s components. For example, health providers are encouraged to talk about family planning with their clients through on-the-job training and regular supportive supervision. They also are trained in meetings to discuss family planning and related issues through “Hot Topics” – a dynamic approach the SCIP team developed to encourage community dialogue and exchange around norm shifting and behavior change. Family planning is also covered by community health workers in their home visits, and many of these same workers facilitate sessions on family planning with youth farmer clubs. Community-based HIV testers/counselors also include discussions about family planning during their sessions with clients.

We’ve also increased the coverage of new users of family planning services at health facilities.

SCIP has done a lot of work to strengthen the link between the existing public health system and communities, working from both sides to reinforce the zone of interaction between the two.

We’ve also established effective partnerships with local government for building and maintaining water sources, rehabilitating peripheral health facilities, building maternal waiting homes, and revitalizing platforms for improved service delivery, transparency, and good governance.

Has the project struggled with any particular area?

One challenge is that we are doing all of this interesting work but it has been difficult to document. This is for a variety of reasons: the complexity of the project, the types of data readily available (or not, given the data quality issues inherent in many countries’ national service statistics), and variation between districts.

In order to address this, we are intensifying our efforts for improved data collection with partners, looking at best practices in the field, and studying specific activities in depth rather than trying to document everything. We hope to feed what we learn back into our implementation plan and disseminate it with broader audiences.

We are also creating “integration indicators” that measure progress around integrated approaches. Some examples of integration indicators are: the proportion of youth farmers’ clubs members who are counseled and tested for HIV; the proportion of HIV positive clients who received a family planning method or referral after counseling; and the number of households with chronically ill patients and a toilet.

Documentation has been a challenge but something that we value and are prioritizing as we enter our fourth year of implementation.

What is the future of SCIP in Nampula? Do you see the changes you’ve helped bring about as sustainable?

Sustainability of the changes brought about by SCIP rely extensively on existing systems and structures and building the capacity of health workers, health activists, and community leaders .

To that end, SCIP will continue to build capacity of community structures and networks, increasing their engagement with the formal health system to improve accountability, demand for, and access to quality health services. With provincial support, and district- and community-level commitment, the SCIP consortium will maintain its role as a mechanism for implementation of government health strategies, while catalyzing transformational change at the community level.

Image Credit: “Empowering Communities Through Integrated Systems Strengthening in Northern Mozambique,” courtesy of Alicia Mehl/SCIP. Map and Chart: SCIP.

Wildlife areas and parks are designed to preserve plant and animal life in biological hotspots, but what about the people who live nearby these hotspots? In many parts of East Africa, communities press right up against park boundaries and people have few alternatives but to draw on the natural resources of protected areas. Conservation efforts depend on these communities’ cooperation and the sustainability – both environmentally and economically – of their livelihoods. [Video Below]

Dale Lewis and Katherine Raphaelson recently spoke at the Wilson Center about two integrated conservation and development efforts in East Africa: the Gorongosa Restoration Project in Mozambique and Community Markets for Conservation (COMACO) in Zambia.

The challenge, said Raphaelson is, “how do you help the people and help the wildlife and save the land?”

A Non-Profit, For-Profit Hybrid

Dale Lewis started his career as an elephant conservationist in Zambia, where he grew accustomed to thinking of poachers as villains. But since then Lewis said he’s gained an “empathetic appreciation of the real plight of small-scale farmers, the challenges that they face, and some of the reasons they often have to turn to poaching” and other destructive livelihoods.

“It is so easy to exploit farmers who are uneducated and often illiterate,” said Lewis. Farmers in East Africa are often unable to get a fair price for their goods – they live too far outside towns to bring their wares to market, and are forced to sell to merchants passing by for much less than the value of the produce. It is difficult for these farmers to earn a living without turning to poaching to supplement their income.

Law enforcement alone won’t end poaching, Lewis said. “We’ve got to offer the farmers a better deal than trading game meat on the illegal market…a deal that can get the farmers that we work with in a safer, better place so they don’t poach.”

As executive director of COMACO and CEO of its business branch – the food company, It’s Wild – Lewis has found an opportunity to do that. COMACO provides farmers with an alternative to destructive livelihoods by training farmers to improve production and reduce environmental degradation and then purchasing their products to be processed and sold to consumers.

COMACO supports farmers throughout the production process. Farmers are trained in conservation farming methods like replacing chemical fertilizers with compost and mulch, as well as other livelihood generating activities, like beekeeping and fish farming. Under the “It’s Wild” brand, COMACO’s business branch then buys the products from farmers at or above market price, guaranteed. It sometimes takes a few years for farmers to trust that their product will be bought at a good price, Lewis said, but once they do, they make more money, have more security, and are more invested in improving their land and yields.

There have been great environmental benefits from this model as well: Lewis showed a map of deforestation rates, with net growth actually occurring in many areas where COMACO works. Better farming practices means that farmers can work the same plot of land year after year, rather than depleting it and then clearing more. COMACO also actively recruits poachers, requiring them to surrender guns and snares before joining producer groups. More than 2,000 firearms and 80,000 snares have been collected so far, Lewis said.

Engaging the Community

For the Gorongosa Restoration Project, integration was a focus from the beginning. Founder and philanthropist Greg Carr – who made a fortune during the U.S. tech boom of the 1990s – initially wanted to focus on HIV/AIDS in Africa, Raphaelson said, but soon realized that “if he just focused on health, he would get nowhere. He had to deal with the lack of education, he had to deal with the lack of opportunity. And he began to realize he had to do some project that integrated health, education, and economic development.”

Carr chose Mozambique’s Gorongosa National Park for this new integrated project. “Gorongosa has some of the most amazing wildlife on Earth,” said Raphaelson, and was once a major tourist destination, but much of the park was decimated by 16 years of civil war that ended in 1992.

Rehabilitating the park requires the cooperation of the 5,000 people who live within its borders, and 120,000 who live in the surrounding area. They are “among the poorest people in the world, with terrible health problems, and they are engaging in activities that are destructive to the park in order to survive,” Raphaelson said, like poaching and deforestation.

To address these compound issues, the Gorongosa Restoration Project uses a population, health, and environment model of integration. Such programming is based on “the idea that security of the environment is directly related to the population and the health of the people.”

The project has brought interventions like mobile clinics, which provide health services like pre- and post-natal care and family planning, and latrines to support the communities living in and around the park. It also focuses on educating children and adults about the environment, with the idea that more conservation will come with greater appreciation for the park. And the project trains community members in alternative livelihoods ranging from beekeeping and improved farming techniques to jobs supporting the tourism industry like working as guides and rangers.

“There are a lot of people in and around this park that need to be there, they’re not going anywhere,” said Raphaelson. “We need to engage them to…bring Gorongosa back to what it once was.”

Long-Term Vision

Both projects are committed to long-term work within their target communities, a practice which can be unusual for developmental organizations.

The Gorongosa Restoration Project is a 20 year commitment to stay involved in the park to the government of Mozambique. “[Gregg Carr] realized he had to have a very, very long-term approach in order to really make a difference,” Raphaelson said.

COMACO has gone a different route by combining a donor-supported, non-profit arm with a business arm. Organizations that rely wholly on donations have a certain perspective, Lewis said – they realize that “the money will end.” But COMACO is supported by Zambians purchasing It’s Wild products – the company released Zambia’s first home-grown breakfast cereal, for example. As well, domestic customers are willing to pay a higher price for higher quality products that support small Zambian farmers, he said.

“There’s a [sense about a] long-term future, about a national good, and a sense of ownership,” Lewis said. “That’s what I think development needs to be more of.”

Event Resources:

• Dale Lewis’ Presentation
• Katherine Raphaelson’s Presentation
• Photo Gallery
• Video

Photo Credit: Gorongosa National Park, courtesy of flickr user FH Mira; Maps: Dale Lewis.

Sources: BBC, Smithsonian Magazine.

‘Toward Resilience’ is a series on the meaning of global resilience and vulnerability today.

Natural disasters have dominated news coverage in the past several years, with many observers noting a distressing rise in the frequency and scale of disasters as well as rising costs. Despite these worrying trends, a critical mass of leadership and public support for doing something about it is emerging.

Last year’s record-setting weather helped crystallize the new reality of disaster impacts for many Americans. The United States suffered more than two-thirds of the world’s disaster damage from storms, drought, fire, and earthquakes, including the worst drought in a generation, freakishly strong thunderstorms, and the largest Arctic ice melt on record. And of course, Superstorm Sandy closed out the election year with a wake-up call: Such large-scale disasters in densely populated, coastal cities present a wickedly complex set of challenges.

The “New Normal”

Collectively, these mounting disaster risks expose us to a dangerous “new normal,” in which climate change is likely to sustain or worsen the scale of disasters. While events like Sandy offer “teachable moments” on managing the scale of future disasters, we’ll need more than lessons learned. We need concrete actions that drive truly forward-looking change.

I believe we’re at a tipping point. It’s not just academics who are pushing for change; there’s greater public pressure on governments to adapt to the reality of the 21^st century, embrace new ways of doing business, and better serve the needs of disaster survivors.

The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) launched its Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) in 2010 as a transformative, community-wide effort to create an enduring foresight capability and catalyze the emergency management community to be prepared for whatever challenges and opportunities the future holds. The recent publication of SFI’s Toward More Resilient Futures showcases how the agency, as well as the entire disaster preparedness community, is taking real steps to promote greater resilience.

The report prompts us to think strategically about the future in three engaging and visually rich sections.

Scenario Building

First, the report draws from its scenario planning foundation to explore four dominant themes – the economy, environment, technology, and security – that will likely drive major changes over the next five years. What’s different about this report from other futures analysis is how it explores the trends that are leading indicators of change.

Each theme contains two competing storylines, placed side-by-side, that force readers to consider how the future may unfold along very different but interconnected paths. For example, the report explores what it means for disaster response and preparedness if America’s recent economic troubles are actually symptoms of an impending “great stagnation.” Or what the possibilities are if the rise of hyper-fast, mobile computing propel us into a new era of “technotopia.”

Crucially, the questions and implications of one storyline are weighed against the countervailing trends of a brighter or more challenging path. The report depicts the inherent messiness and complexity of the future, with all the pros, cons, and uncertainty we all deal with day-to-day. The bottom line: making these trade-offs won’t be easy, but we need to have a deeper discussion about these issues and how they may be used to improve U.S. resilience.

The SFI also provokes questions about how key trends, like big data, crowd-funding, and growing social inequality, will play out and affect resilience to disasters. Can we make practical use of crowd-funding platforms like Kickstarter and Neighbor.ly and inspire the do-it-yourself movement to apply their skills toward greater disaster resilience? Can the U.S. government foster greater trust and engagement through the internet while avoiding massive data breaches and respecting individual privacy? The report isn’t prescriptive about what actions to take to deal with these challenges and opportunities. Instead, it leaves us with the major implications and takeaways for government and emergency managers so that we can draw our own conclusions.

New Tools, New Success Stories

In the second feature, the report aims to make strategic foresight actionable by highlighting real-world applications of “foresight in practice.” These are organic efforts from the field that can perhaps serve as models for how to develop the capabilities, tools, and partnerships needed to manage future disaster risks.

Take Recovers.org as an example. In the wake of a tornado that hit their Massachusetts community in 2011, two sisters created an online platform that helps residents map their own neighborhoods and either request or offer assistance. The site has since grown to be used in more than a dozen large and small communities around the world (like the Lower East Side in New York City). Multiple organizations can collaborate, volunteers can sign up and release liability remotely, donors can list available resources rather than dropping them off, and those with needs can easily and privately request help from all relevant agencies at once. This gives emergency management a detailed view of preparedness levels across a given area and allows and encourages community members to help their neighbors efficiently. It’s precisely these sorts of tools and grassroots efforts that are at the forefront of improving resilience.

Tapping the Community’s Potential

Finally, the report asks public and private sector entrepreneurs to envision what disaster resilience might look like if we begin to drive change today.

Designer Michael McDaniel represents the voice of a new generation of entrepreneurs who are creating business ideas that also achieve social change. In the report, McDaniel outlines how innovative design work might spillover to government, resulting in transformations that affect emergency sheltering, communications, and power distribution.

Actively drawing on the ideas and talents of these pioneers outside traditional emergency management communities represents a key piece of the “whole community” approach that FEMA has recently championed. The underlying premise centers on the recognition that government-centric efforts cannot fully meet the challenges posed by disasters. And scattered throughout the whole community are many individuals who are innately innovative and interested in delivering better solutions that improve how we deal with disasters.

Despite the staggering toll taken by disasters over the last five years, I think there’s reason to be optimistic. And it’s captured in one of the taglines in Toward More Resilient Futures that I’ll paraphrase: Perhaps the biggest unknown we face in the future is not what will change, but how we’ll cope with emerging challenges and opportunities. The practice of strategic foresight – which helps us look back to better anticipate what’s ahead – can help us get there.

Alan M. Wright is a management consultant with Hassett Willis and Company. He’s consulted for FEMA since 2009 and supported the Strategic Foresight Initiative directly since it launched in 2010.

Sources: Bloomberg Businessweek, The Economist, Glen Burnie Patch, IDG News Service, Munich RE, The New York Times, Recovers.org, TEDx, U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Photo Credit: The USS Wasp positioned for Hurricane Sandy relief near New York City, courtesy of the U.S. Navy; Map: Munich RE/NatCatSERVICE. Video: TEDx.

The original version of this article, by Matthew Berger, appeared on The Interdependent.

Last summer, after walking for days to a refugee camp across the South Sudan border, some Sudanese refugees reportedly chose to dig holes to reach muddy water rather than face the fist-fights breaking out around a failing tap. Boreholes dug by aid agencies collapsed in the crumbling soil. Even the coming rainy season brought more challenges than relief, washing out roads used by water tanker trucks and threatening the camp with flooding.

Although an extreme example, the desperation and fighting at Jamam refugee camp are expected to become increasingly common as climate change, environmental degradation, and a booming population put greater strain on water resources globally. In the face of these water crises, the United Nations, NGOs, and governments are sounding the alarm that water is no longer simply a humanitarian or environmental concern; it is a dire security matter as well.

This emerging focus on water security extends far beyond having enough drinking water. Water can be both a source of nourishment and of destruction, which means getting a handle on what exactly a water-secure world would look like is challenging. To that end, UN-Water, the United Nations’ coordinating mechanism for all water-related issues, recently defined the term.

Water security, UN-Water explained, is “the capacity of a population to safeguard sustainable access to adequate quantities of acceptable quality water for sustaining livelihoods, human well-being, and socio-economic development, for ensuring protection against water-borne pollution and water-related disasters, and for preserving ecosystems in a climate of peace and political stability.”

Continue reading on The Interdependent.

Sources: AFP.

Photo Credit: “UN Helps Build School for Former Child Soldiers in Darfur,” courtesy of Albert Gonzalez Farran/UN Photo.

“Improving the equity of women, the treatment of women and girls, the value of women and girls in society is a very important means of improving population health,” says Dr. Anita Raj of the University of California, San Diego. Traditional societal expectations of women and girls in India contribute to high early marriage rates, low birth spacing, high rates of sexually transmitted infections, and high rates of abuse. Efforts to improve maternal and child health should take these and other gender inequities into consideration. “The need to work on these issues and work on them immediately cannot be overstated,” she said.

“Improving the equity of women, the treatment of women and girls, the value of women and girls in society is a very important means of improving population health,” says Dr. Anita Raj of the University of California, San Diego. Traditional societal expectations of women and girls in India contribute to high early marriage rates, low birth spacing, high rates of sexually transmitted infections, and high rates of abuse. Efforts to improve maternal and child health should take these and other gender inequities into consideration. “The need to work on these issues and work on them immediately cannot be overstated,” she said.

Raj spoke at the Wilson Center on April 18; download her slides to follow along.

Friday podcasts are also available for download from iTunes.

Once considered a model for Sahelian democracy, Mali’s liberal regime (assessed as “free” in Freedom House’s annual survey of democratic governance continuously from 2000 to 2011) virtually disintegrated in March 2012 when a group of junior army officers, frustrated by the central government’s half-hearted response to a rebellion in the state’s vast northern tier, found themselves – somewhat accidently – in control of the state.

With renewed elections in Mali slated for July and French troops containing Tuareg and Islamist insurgents, the Sahelian state appears to be on track to start again where it left off just over a year ago. However, several African and Western political commentators contend that putting Mali’s laudably democratic, yet habitually fragile and chronically ineffectual regime, back together again is simply a bad idea.

Whether right or wrong, their criticism highlights an unsettled question for Western interventionist powers: When coming to the aid of a fallen democratic regime, should an intervening Western power insist, at the end of the operation, on the restoration of high levels of democracy? Most Western diplomats would likely answer “yes, of course,” with little hesitation. However, as Graham Norwood’s Mali and Niger breakdown on New Security Beat mentions briefly, a recent analysis of the record of stability among liberal democracies with extraordinarily youthful populations – like Mali’s, where nearly half of the population is under the age of 16, and fertility remains more than six children per woman – suggests that under such circumstances, the state and its citizens might fare better with a bit less democracy.

Losing It

Much has transpired since the coup d’état. In April 2012, the head of the military junta, Captain Amadou Sanogo, yielded to pressure from the Economic Community of West African States to affect a non-violent transfer of power to an interim government headed by Diaoncounde Traoré, the former president of Mali’s National Assembly. Nonetheless, conditions continued to deteriorate.

In May, supporters of the military coup broke into the presidential palace, assaulting and injuring Traoré. During the months that followed, the Malian Army suffered a string of humiliating defeats at the hands of the Tuareg-nationalist MNLA (Mouvement National pour la Libération d’Azwad) and two jihadist forces, Ansar Eddine and MUJAO (Le Mouvement pour l’Unicité et le Jihad en Afrique de l’Ouest). Fearful of state collapse and eager to halt violence being perpetrated on civilians in Mali’s north, in January 2013 France inserted a 7,000-strong force of soldiers.

So far, the military intervention appears successful. French and Chadian forces have halted the rebels’ southward advance, the insurgency has fragmented into skirmishes between jihadists and the MNLA, and the U.N. Security Council is preparing to authorize a peacekeeping mission.

At the urging of France and other Western backers of the intervention, Mali’s interim regime seems set to start up where it left off before the coup. Some African critics argue, however, that Malian democracy was shallow, dysfunctional, and fragile, and that it had made little progress on resolving the society’s deep inequalities and insecurities that emanate from the north. And, some contend, that the country’s citizens might be better off in the long run with less consensus politics, tougher social reforms, and tighter security.

My research suggests that this critique may be on point. Since the early 1970s, half of all youthful liberal democracies – states, like pre-coup Mali, with a regime assessed as “free” by Freedom House and a population with a median age younger than 25 years – have been incapable of holding this rating for a decade, and only one in five has held it for two decades. Mali, for all the praise lumped upon it, was (according to this model) an average performer.

Young and Unstable

Since 1972, the year that Freedom House published its first annual global assessment of political rights and civil liberties, youthful states with high levels of democracy have been exceptionally unstable. For that 40-year period, their year-to-year risk of dropping out of the “free” category has been about six times higher than states with more mature age structures (see Figure 1). And the “decay rate” of youthful liberal regimes, which draws on Freedom House assessments from 1972 to 1992, has been steep when compared to intermediate-aged liberal regimes (Figure 2).

The consequences to the populace of these “youthful democratic dropouts” have often been severe. Within five years of losing Freedom House’s “free” assessment, about half of these dropout states were being ruled by autocratic regimes (assessed as “not free”) or had hit the lower rungs of partial democracy (low scores in the “partly free” category).

Realistically, neither the criticisms of journalists nor the theories of political demographers are likely to have much bearing on decisions to remake or modify Mali’s regime. Nonetheless, it might be wise for those involved to understand the historical odds of obtaining and maintaining very high levels of democracy among states that have experienced Mali’s youthful demographic conditions. For the period that data is available, those odds have been consistently low.

Richard Cincotta is demographer-in-residence at the Stimson Center and a consultant on political demography for the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Project.

Sources: Freedom House, Jeune Afrique, The National Interest, Think Africa Press, UN Population Division.

Photo Credit: Fixation of dunes in Mali, courtesy of the UN World Food Program. Charts: Richard Cincotta.

The New York Times had a front-page story on Egypt’s population policy last week; unfortunately it wasn’t a sterling example of how to report on this tricky issue and left out a key part of the story – the important role of family planning in ensuring human rights, especially for women.

“Egypt’s Birthrate Rises as Population Control Policies Vanish” starts with an interesting premise: Egypt’s birthrate rose to its highest level since 1991 last year and the new Morsi government is re-considering previous health priorities:

After two decades of steady declines and modest increases, the birthrate in 2012 reached about 32 for every 1,000 people – surpassing a level last seen in 1991, shortly before the government of the longtime president, Hosni Mubarak, expanded family planning programs and publicity campaigns to curtail population growth that he blamed for crippling Egypt’s development. Last year, there were 2.6 million births, bringing the population to about 84 million, according to preliminary government figures.

The new government of President Mohamed Morsi has continued financing for family planning programs. But health officials have taken a starkly different view of climbing birthrates, presenting the problem as one of economic management – not the size of the population. Population experts are increasingly alarmed by the government’s silence and its lack of focus on the issue.

But the article moves on to focus on the views of a new assistant minister of health, who frames the issue in terms of politics – mainly the evils of the Mubarak regime:

Dr. Abeer Barakat, the assistant minister of health in charge of family planning, said she was seeking to redress imbalances in the previous government’s approach to health care. Mr. Mubarak, she said, “was biased” toward family planning and ignored urgent concerns like cancer and hepatitis C.

And while she said that family planning programs would continue to be a part of health policy, she also said the government should play no role in encouraging families to limit the number of children they have. “Assigning a number is against reproductive freedoms, and against human rights,” she said.

“They are not rabbits, to stop giving birth,” she said. “Manpower is a treasure.”

Most family planning advocates agree that the issue is not about numbers, but they argue that cutting funding to programs that ensure family planning is accessible and affordable also undercuts reproductive freedom and human rights. Unfortunately, the reporter, Kareem Fahim, gives short shrift to this view and also leaves un-refuted the strong suggestion (both by the text and headline) that Mubarak-era policies dictated how many children people could have, which is not true.

Family planning as a human right for Egyptian women, or men for that matter, is not mentioned at all. And while Fahim mentions that Cairo was the site of the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development, he leaves out the fact that the universal right of women to control their own fertility was in fact a cornerstone of that summit.

This exclusion is especially jarring considering the widely expressed concern of many, including the Wilson Center’s own Middle East Program, that new Islamist regimes in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and elsewhere may reverse progress on women’s rights, including reproductive rights.

Demographer Hassan Zaky’s contributions to the article deserved more exploration. “No one is saying we should concentrate only on family planning, or only on development,” he tells the reporter. “We need a mix. We don’t want the new regime to focus on one thing.”

Sources: The New York Times, UN.

Photo Credit: “Graffiti of the mother of Ahmad Serour,” courtesy of flickr user lobna.

1. Avoiding the Resource Curse in East Africa’s Oil and Natural Gas Boom, Jill Shankleman

2. National Intelligence Council Releases ‘Global Trends 2030’: Prominent Roles Predicted for Demographic and Environmental Trends, Schuyler Null, Katharine Diamond

3. New Partnerships for Climate Change Adaptation and Peacebuilding in Africa, Schuyler Null

4. Taming Hunger in Ethiopia: The Role of Population Dynamics, Laurie Mazur

5. For Earth Day, A Commitment and An Invitation, Roger-Mark De Souza

6. ‘National Geographic’ Reports on “Water Grabbers” From Mali to India, Carolyn Lamere

7. Infographic: Women, Reproductive Health at the Center of a Sustainable Future, Cat Lazaroff

8. Can Coffee Make Yunnan a Model for Chinese Agricultural Reform? David Tyler Gibson

9. Bouncing Back: How Do Population Dynamics and Social Cohesion Affect the Resilience of Societies? Carolyn Lamere

10. Petro-Aggression: When Oil Causes War, Maria Prebble

Water is the foundation of human society and will become even more critical as population growth, development, and climate change put pressure on already-shrinking water resources in the years ahead. But will this scarcity fuel conflict between countries with shared waters, as some have predicted, or will it create more impetus for cooperation?

At the Wilson Center on April 11, experts from USAID, the U.S. Department of State, World Bank, United Nations Development Program, Stimson Center, Global Environment Facility, and Stockholm International Water Institute described the opportunities and challenges surrounding international water cooperation.

Not Conflict, But Stress and Tension

Aaron Salzberg, special coordinator for water resources in the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs, noted that while water can be a source of tension, countries historically tend to cooperate rather than fight over it. But water-related problems, including shortages and issues related to quality and food availability, can exacerbate already-existing tensions and distract countries from working on other priorities.

Many major water basins like the Nile and the Indus are now “closed,” said David Michel, director of the Environmental Security Program at the Stimson Center. That is, all of their water has been allocated for human and ecosystem use. If too much water is used, quality can diminish to the point where it is unusable even for industrial purposes. But demand in these regions – both through population increases and changes in usage – is still increasing, adding pressure to at- or above-capacity systems. The tight margins in these basins means that the stakes are higher for riparian countries and there is less room to maneuver in treaty negotiations.

Some of these basins support more than their local populations, said Anders Jagerskog, head of the Transboundary Water Management Unit at the Stockholm International Water Institute. Foreign investors are buying land, especially in Africa, to grow food and biofuels, he said. These land contracts often don’t include rules on allocation of water, leaving investors free to pump as much local water as they can. Jagerskog said that these “land grabs” can put additional pressure on already contentious transboundary water systems like the Nile.

Untapped Waterways of Africa

In Africa, water is the medium through which extreme events are filtered, said Gustavo Saltiel, program manager of the Africa Water Resources Unit of the World Bank. Droughts and floods put tension on people and countries’ economies and this tension can be translated to international negotiations over access. With the types of effects being seen in Africa related to climate change, there may be higher tensions around transboundary water rights than in the past.

Alongside agriculture, more water will be needed to support burgeoning urban populations in Africa. Fortunately, the continent has great untapped hydropower reserves, said Saltiel. Less than 10 percent of Africa’s hydropower resources have been exploited, compared with over 70 percent in Europe and North America. But cooperation – and treaties – between riparian countries will be needed to develop this potential equitably and safely.

Making Treaties More Comprehensive and Responsive

Two-thirds of international water basins don’t have water-sharing agreements, said Jagerskog. And some of the agreements that are in place are not comprehensive, Michel followed up. He pointed to the famous 1960 Indus Water Treaty, which has survived three wars between India and Pakistan, but does not actually include two basin countries – Afghanistan and China. Many agreements are “static,” said Jagerskog, not taking into account changes in water availability or politics. A more holistic and responsive approach to developing water sharing treaties is needed, he said.

Andrew Hudson, head of the United Nations Development Program’s Water and Ocean Governance Program, said that the lack of coverage for the majority of basins is “illuminating.” He noted that the majority of large, well-known basins like the Nile River have water distribution frameworks in place. Smaller rivers are not as well covered and may still be at high risk for conflict, he said.

Hudson also outlined the current international legal framework for transboundary rivers, which is based on two UN conventions: the UN Watercourses Convention and a convention initially established by the UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE). As the UNECE convention expands, the two treaties as a package could be “mutually reinforcing,” he said.

In regions completely lacking governance of shared waters, the Global Environment Facility (GEF) brings people together to build the foundational capacity for cooperation, said Christian Severin, a senior environmental specialist and program manager. The ultimate goal is to establish strategic action plans and transformational change, but getting people in the same room is the first step, he said. In addition to looking broadly at basins of all size around the world, the GEF works to update existing agreements to allow countries to better cope with institutional change. New agreements will also take into account the water-energy nexus to distribute water among stakeholders with competing interests.

Information Helps, But Political Process Crucial

Moving forward, Michel emphasized the need for more data. Misunderstandings and myths surrounding water usage and availability are often the source of tension, said Salzberg. Collecting and communicating accurate information improves decisions and creates more engaged stakeholders.

But Michel also warned that while more and better information can aid decision-makers, it will rarely provide them with perfect answers – at some point tradeoffs will likely have to be made, which is the job of politicians, not engineers.

Saltiel drew on an example of a transboundary agreement that highlighted these types of tradeoffs. During the construction of a recently-completed hydropower plant on the Kagera River, which flows through Burundi, Rwanda, and Tanzania and supplies electricity to all three countries, Burundi lobbied for an option that would maximize energy production but displace 50,000 people in Rwanda. In the end, the countries compromised, and only 900 people were displaced. But that decision needed to be made through the political process.

Cynthia Brady, senior conflict advisor for the Office of Conflict Management and Mitigation at USAID, suggested that one way to moderate these tensions is to incorporate the points of view of all stakeholders, including grassroots organizations and civil society. She said it is crucial to balance both the technical and political solutions to maximize the benefit and minimize the harm of agreements and infrastructure projects.

Event Resources:

• Anders Jagerskog’s Presentation
• David Michel’s Presentation
• Gustavo Saltiel’s Presentation
• Christian Severin’s Presentation
• Photo Gallery

Sources: Nile Basin Initiative, World Bank.

Photo Credit: Rio San Pablo, courtesy of NASA; Event photos courtesy of Schuyler Null/Wilson Center.