Oblivious Investor

Ways that Owning Individual Stocks Can Go Wrong

Mike — Mon, 21 Sep 2026 12:00:57 +0000

Most of the time, when people buy individual stocks (or choose not to sell ones that they already own), the thought process appears to be something along the lines of: I expect that this company will earn lots of profits in the coming years.

But that’s not a good enough reason to buy an individual stock. (Nor is it a good enough reason to choose not to sell a stock that you already own.)

Choosing to allocate anything more than a trivial portion of your portfolio to an individual stock means taking on considerable additional risk, relative to simply owning a diversified fund of stocks. So you need to have a strong reason to think that this particular stock will earn better returns than the overall market.

And, what most people don’t know is that the performance of a given stock is not determined by whether the underlying company performs well or poorly. Rather, it is determined by whether the underlying company does better or worse than the market expected it to do. There is, therefore, little to be gained from picking individual stocks unless you have some unique insight about the company which the broader overall market does not have — something that isn’t already “priced in.”

A quick litmus test: have you even attempted a financial analysis of the company? Have you looked at their financial statements? Have you done any financial modeling at all? If not, you owe it to yourself to be honest about what you’re doing. You’re investing based on vibes. And you’re pitting that approach, and your money, against professionals who are taking a considerably more rigorous approach to the process.

Another hurdle: if you do think you have a unique insight into this company’s future profitability, it’s important to make sure that you won’t be running afoul of insider trading rules if you make any trades based on the information you have.

But even from that point (i.e., you firmly believe you have a unique insight into the company’s future profitability, and you’re confident that it’s not based on insider information), there are still multiple ways that it can go wrong.

The unique insight you have about the company could turn out to be wrong. A common version of this is, “right line of business, wrong company.” You successfully identified a line of business that grew much faster than the market expected, but the specific company you chose turned out not to be the winner in that industry.

Alternatively, the unique insight you have about the company could turn out to be right, but you were wrong about it being unique. In other words, the market already knew, and the information was already baked into the price.

Another possibility: the unique insight you have about the company turns out to be right, but you weren’t accounting for some negative factor that the market was accounting for (and you were thus overvaluing the stock).

And finally: the unique insight you have about the company turns out to be right, but neither you nor the market was accounting for a negative factor that turned out to be important (i.e., everybody was overvaluing the stock).

What is the Best Age to Claim Social Security?

Read the answers to this question and several other Social Security questions in my latest book:

Social Security Made Simple: Social Security Retirement Benefits and Related Planning Topics Explained in 100 Pages or Less

Click here to see it on Amazon.

Disclaimer:Your subscription to this blog does not create a CPA-client or other professional services relationship between you and Michael Piper or between you and Simple Subjects, LLC. By subscribing, you explicitly agree not to hold Michael Piper or Simple Subjects, LLC liable in any way for damages arising from decisions you make based on the information available herein. Neither Michael Piper nor Simple Subjects, LLC makes any warranty as to the accuracy of any information contained in this communication. The information contained herein is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. On financial matters for which assistance is needed, I strongly urge you to meet with a professional advisor who (unlike me) has a professional relationship with you and who (again, unlike me) knows the relevant details of your situation.

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Financial Planning Roundup: 153 Million Drivers License Scans Made Illegally Available for Sale

Mike — Mon, 14 Sep 2026 12:00:41 +0000

Earlier this month, news broke that somebody was selling scans of more than 153 million drivers licenses. It appears that it’s the result of a breach at a company (IDscan.net) that provides ID scanning services for other businesses, such as Hertz car rental, Target, and FedEx.

This is up there with the 2017 Equifax breach in terms of total number of people affected (i.e., almost half the U.S. population). It’s depressing/infuriating that we have so little control of where our information ends up. And this event definitely reinforces the lesson that any account secured exclusively with “private” information is no longer sufficiently secured, as the bad guys increasingly have access to our private information.

FBI Probes Service Selling 153M+ Drivers Licenses from Brian Krebs

What is the Best Age to Claim Social Security?

Read the answers to this question and several other Social Security questions in my latest book:

Social Security Made Simple: Social Security Retirement Benefits and Related Planning Topics Explained in 100 Pages or Less

Click here to see it on Amazon.

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A TIPS Ladder in a Single ETF? (Northern Trust Inflation-Linked Distributing Ladder ETFs)

Mike — Mon, 07 Sep 2026 12:00:14 +0000

A reader writes in, asking:

“Have you encountered the ‘Inflation-Linked Distributing Ladder’ ETFs from Northern Trust? It looks to me that they create an entire TIPS ladder for you, and all you have to do is just buy a single fund. Too good to be true?”

Yes, the ETFs in question do create an entire TIPS ladder for you. But there is a catch. We’ll get to that in a moment.

Firstly, I want to note that these are very different from iShares’ target-maturity TIPS ETFs. The ETFs from iShares each buy TIPS maturing in a single year (i.e., each of the ETFs could serve as a single rung in a ladder, rather than being a ladder on its own).

In contrast, the Inflation-Linked Distributing Ladder ETFs from Northern Trust each own an entire TIPS ladder (with the final year being the year in the fund’s name). Here are the options so far:

Northern Trust 2030 Inflation-Linked Distributing Ladder ETF (TIPA)
Northern Trust 2031 Inflation-Linked Distributing Ladder ETF (TIPE)
Northern Trust 2035 Inflation-Linked Distributing Ladder ETF (TIPB)
Northern Trust 2036 Inflation-Linked Distributing Ladder ETF (TIPF)
Northern Trust 2045 Inflation-Linked Distributing Ladder ETF (TIPC)
Northern Trust 2046 Inflation-Linked Distributing Ladder ETF (TIPG)
Northern Trust 2055 Inflation-Linked Distributing Ladder ETF (TIPD)
Northern Trust 2056 Inflation-Linked Distributing Ladder ETF (TIPH)

They started with the 2030, 2035, 2045, and 2055 funds last year, and added the other funds this year. It seems likely that next year they’ll launch another four funds (i.e., 2032, 2037, 2047, 2057).

The idea is that, for each fund, as the bonds mature or make interest payments, the fund distributes cash. And when the final bonds mature, the fund distributes its remaining assets and then closes. So, yes, each of these ETFs really is an entire TIPS ladder via a single fund.

And they’re low-cost as well, with expense ratios of just 0.10%.

The catch: the distribution policy makes no sense (at least in my opinion). The funds distribute cash when bonds pay interest or mature, which makes sense. But they also distribute the inflation adjustments as they occur. What that means is that, in order for your holding to actually go up along with inflation (which is generally the idea of a TIPS ladder), you’d have to manually reinvest the distributions that are the result of inflation adjustments. And you can’t just set it to automatically reinvest all distributions, otherwise you’d be reinvesting the other distributions as well.

So these ETFs are much less work to set up than a DIY ladder of individual TIPS, but they involve ongoing management work, whereas a ladder of individual TIPS is generally just left alone once it has been put it place.

They’re so close to being a major convenience upgrade. But as it stands, they’re just trading work now for work later. For some people that might still be a desirable tradeoff. For me, it puts them in the “neat idea, but no thank you” category.

One other point: so far, the funds are tiny, in terms of assets managed. I hope they catch on. But I hope even more that somebody eventually creates a product that really is a set-it-and-forget-it TIPS ladder all in a single fund.

What is the Best Age to Claim Social Security?

Read the answers to this question and several other Social Security questions in my latest book:

Social Security Made Simple: Social Security Retirement Benefits and Related Planning Topics Explained in 100 Pages or Less

Click here to see it on Amazon.

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Financial Planning Roundup: The Index Fund Turns 50 Today

Mike — Mon, 31 Aug 2026 12:00:11 +0000

Fifty years ago today (August 31, 1976), Jack Bogle and Vanguard launched the first index mutual fund: First Index Investment Trust, which tracked the S&P 500 index (and which is now known as the Vanguard 500 Index Fund).

It’s hard to overstate the significance of that event, in terms of its impact on individual investors. Today, using low-cost, index-tracking funds is largely the default way to invest. The success of Vanguard’s index-tracking funds — and the fact that they operated the funds at-cost — revolutionized the entire industry.

The Index Fund Turns 50: How Jack Bogle Changed Investing Forever from Allan Roth

What is the Best Age to Claim Social Security?

Read the answers to this question and several other Social Security questions in my latest book:

Social Security Made Simple: Social Security Retirement Benefits and Related Planning Topics Explained in 100 Pages or Less

Click here to see it on Amazon.

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Why Do Passkeys Prevent Phishing?

Mike — Mon, 24 Aug 2026 12:00:16 +0000

A reader writes in, asking:

“You have said, and I have read elsewhere also, that passkeys are ‘phishing resistant.’ I’m ready to believe that, because everybody ‘in the know’ says so, but I haven’t really been able to wrap my head around WHY that’s the case. Is that something you could write about?”

Broadly speaking, phishing happens in either of two ways:

You somehow end up on a malicious website (one designed to look like your bank, email provider, etc.), and you don’t realize it’s not the real deal. So you enter your login credentials to sign in, and now the bad guy has collected those credentials.
As part of a communication (e.g., a text or phone call from the bad guy, who convinces you that they work at your bank or some other place where you have an account), you are tricked into sharing your login credentials (e.g., sharing them by text or stating them over the phone).

Passkeys are inherently strong against both of those types of attacks.

Phishing via Malicious Website

Passkeys are domain-bound, which means that when you create a passkey, saved as a part of that passkey is the specific domain that it’s used for. For example, if you bank with Chase, and you create a passkey while signed in on Chase.com, that passkey is specifically bound to the domain Chase.com.

So if you someday unknowingly end up on a malicious website that is designed to look like Chase.com, your passkey simply won’t work. The “accidentally enter your login credentials into a malicious website” scenario simply doesn’t exist with a passkey in the way that it does with a password.

Note, however, that if you have a website for which you can sign in via passkey or via password, then just because you have a passkey doesn’t mean you’re now invulnerable to being tricked into entering your password into a malicious website.

But even still, the passkey provides some useful protection. If you normally sign in with a passkey, and one day that passkey does not load, do not assume that your passkey “isn’t working” and that you should enter your password instead. Rather, treat your passkey not loading as a valuable and critical signal that you might be on the wrong website. Rather than entering your password, it’s probably best to start over: in the location bar of your browser type the known URL of the website you’re intending to visit (or use a bookmark). To be clear, passkeys can sometimes fail to load for benign reasons, but the safe response is the same either way: re-navigate to the website via a known-safe method.

Phishing via Malicious Communication

In normal usage, the user doesn’t actually see the secret part of the passkey (i.e., the private key of the private/public key pair). It’s saved in your password manager (or on a security key such as a YubiKey). And when you click a button to log in with a passkey, all of the magic (i.e., your device accessing your private key, using it to create a digital signature, and sending that digital signature to the website you’re logging into) happens behind the scenes, out of the user’s view. The user doesn’t even have an easy way (or, in some cases, any way) to share the secret part. And if you don’t have a way to share it, you can’t be tricked into sharing it with a bad guy.

What is the Best Age to Claim Social Security?

Read the answers to this question and several other Social Security questions in my latest book:

Social Security Made Simple: Social Security Retirement Benefits and Related Planning Topics Explained in 100 Pages or Less

Click here to see it on Amazon.

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Financial Planning Roundup: Long-Term TIPS Yielding 3%

Mike — Mon, 17 Aug 2026 12:00:56 +0000

TIPS maturing in 2046 or later are yielding slightly above 3% as of last Friday. (And TIPS maturing 2042-2045 aren’t far below 3%.)

It’s important to understand that interest rates are quite hard to predict. And there’s no rule that says that TIPS yields can’t go meaningfully above 3%. So there’s no way to say, “today is the very best time to buy.” But it is fair to say that “inflation + 3%” is a better expected return from the bond side of a portfolio than has been available for quite some time, without using lower-quality bonds.

Long TIPS Yield 3%. Time to Buy? from Edward McQuarrie and William Bernstein

What is the Best Age to Claim Social Security?

Read the answers to this question and several other Social Security questions in my latest book:

Social Security Made Simple: Social Security Retirement Benefits and Related Planning Topics Explained in 100 Pages or Less

Click here to see it on Amazon.

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Reducing Spending Throughout Retirement

Mike — Mon, 10 Aug 2026 12:00:55 +0000

In a recent paper, David Blanchett found (again) that household spending tends to decrease over the course of retirement. That is, it increases, but not as quickly as inflation. So in “real” terms, it’s gradually going down.

Relative to Blanchett’s earlier work on how retirees change their spending over time, his latest paper had two particularly noteworthy findings.

Median vs Mean

The first especially interesting finding was the difference between the median and mean (average).

For the median retiree, inflation-adjusted spending decreases throughout retirement.

For the average (mean) retiree, however, inflation adjusted spending goes back up at older ages (though it still stays below the initial level of spending).

The difference appears to be significantly due to large health-related costs at older ages, which are included when calculating a mean, but which do not affect the median retiree. For example, as Blanchett writes, “among those who passed away at the age of 95, the median cumulative real lifetime unexpected out-of-pocket medical expenses were only about $50,000 compared to roughly $250,000 at the 95th percentile.”

Reducing Spending by Choice

The second particularly interesting finding is that even households that are “funded or overfunded” still reduce spending. That is, while some retiree households reduce their spending due to limited funds, even households who don’t need to reduce spending nonetheless typically do still reduce spending over time.

As Blanchett writes, “Only those respondents who were the most well-funded and spending at lower levels tended to increase in spending. Average real spending declined for all respondents spending $80,000 or more, regardless of funded status, although spending declines were lower as funded status tended to improve.”

Why People Reduce Spending

To me, it’s not surprising at all to find that people reduce spending over their retirement, even when they aren’t forced to do so.

For example, imagine a world in which there was absolutely no uncertainty. You know exactly what your career earnings and investment returns will be. You know what inflation is going to be. You know exactly how long you (and your spouse, if applicable) will live. You know exactly what your health care costs (and other “lumpy” costs such as home repairs) will be each year.

And so you’re left with some, definitively known, amount of discretionary spending, which you can allocate across the years of your life.

In that world, how would you allocate those dollars, across time?

There’s no right or wrong answer here. But most people would choose to do more discretionary spending in their earlier years and less in their later years, simply because it’s easier to enjoy discretionary spending at a younger age. At 25 it’s easier to have a travel-the-world type of adventure than at 45. It’s easier at 45 than at 65. And it’s easier at 65 than at 85. And the same things goes for most types of discretionary spending. It’s just easier to do it the younger we are.

Some people might choose the classical economics “consumption smoothing” idea of having your spending stay level over time. But it’s hard to imagine many people intentionally choosing an increasing spending path all the way through life (e.g., pinching pennies at age 35 so that you can “live large” at age 85).

Now let’s bring back one type of uncertainty: lifespan. So we’re still assuming no investment risk, no uncertainty as to health care costs or other big expenses. But now we don’t know how long you’ll live. Naturally, that means we need to plan for a scenario where you live longer than your life expectancy, but there’s another aspect here that is often left out. And that is: would you weight earlier years more heavily (i.e., choose to spend more in those years than in the above case) simply because you know you’ll be alive in those years? In other words, separate from the decision you made above about year-by-year spending preferences, when we add longevity uncertainty into the mix, would you now choose to, for example, further shift the spending in the direction of the earlier years, simply because you’re more likely to be alive during those years?

Again, different people will answer differently here. But this factor is either not important to you, or it’s a point in favor of more spending in earlier years. Nobody would say, “I’m less likely to be alive at age 95 than at age 65, and therefore I will plan to allocate more dollars to spending at age 95 than at age 65.”

So we have two factors, both of which point in favor of weighting earlier spending more heavily than later spending (though to differing degrees from one person to another). For most households, that’s broadly the goal that we’re trying to achieve.

“Reducing spending throughout retirement” might sound bad. (And indeed, being forced to do so is probably not what we want.) But “intentionally choosing to spend more in earlier retirement” is another way of saying the same thing, and it is broadly something that people want to do.

What is the Best Age to Claim Social Security?

Read the answers to this question and several other Social Security questions in my latest book:

Social Security Made Simple: Social Security Retirement Benefits and Related Planning Topics Explained in 100 Pages or Less

Click here to see it on Amazon.

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Financial Planning Roundup: Vanguard Funds Add “Morningstar” to Their Name

Mike — Mon, 03 Aug 2026 12:00:58 +0000

In February of 2026, Morningstar bought CRSP (the Center for Research in Securities Prices), which until that point was owned by the University of Chicago. CRSP was the entity that operated a bunch of the indexes that Vanguard funds tracked.

Earlier this year, Vanguard announced that “Morningstar” would be added to the names of the various funds that track indexes now run by Morningstar (previously run by CRSP). For example, Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund would become the Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market Index Fund.

On Wednesday of last week, those new names took effect.

Just to be clear, it’s a name change only. Same funds, same indexes being tracked, slightly new name.

What is the Best Age to Claim Social Security?

Read the answers to this question and several other Social Security questions in my latest book:

Social Security Made Simple: Social Security Retirement Benefits and Related Planning Topics Explained in 100 Pages or Less

Click here to see it on Amazon.

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Is a Total Bond Fund Still an Acceptable Core Bond Holding?

Mike — Mon, 27 Jul 2026 12:00:42 +0000

A reader writes in, asking:

“I have question about your VT + TIPS choice. Will you maintain that two fund portfolio throughout your life? Was wondering if your choice reflects a personal judgement about holding BND in a portfolio. BND has certainly not been a stellar performer for several years. Makes me wonder if going with TIPS only for the non-stock portion of our portfolio is also the right choice for us. Currently looking at a 50/50 BND/TIPS for fixed income as I start retirement next year, but your choice is making me doubt the wisdom of that approach.”

Bonds can perform two separate roles in a portfolio. In our household, we’re using them in a way that only individual TIPS held to maturity is really the right fit. But if they are being used as basically “the thing that’s less volatile than stocks, which will be rebalanced with the stock part of the portfolio” there are tons of options that would be fine. This article has more on that:

What’s the Point of Bonds in a Portfolio? (And Why Individual TIPS, Held to Maturity, Are Unique)

Personally I have no significant qualms about a “total bond market” fund such as BND in that second role. Its performance in recent years is not anything strange or alarming. That’s just what happens when interest rates go up. And they went up, by a lot, from 2021-2022 (especially in 2022). If you find the fund on Vanguard, click to the performance section, then click the tab for “annually,” you’ll see the year-by-year returns. It’s really just those two years (especially 2022 with a -13.15% total return by NAV) that makes all of the performance figures look bad — and it’ll be that way until those years fall out of the various calculations. (Note that the fund’s 3-year performance is much better than 5-year performance for exactly this reason.)

And again, it’s not as if the fund did anything wrong over the 2021-2022 period. BND has an average duration of 5.8 years. That means that for every percentage point change in interest rates for bonds similar to those in the portfolio, the fund’s price should move in the opposite direction by about 5.8%. From the beginning of 2021 to the end of 2022, yields on 7-year Treasury bonds went from 0.64% to 3.96%, an increase of 3.32%. Multiplied by an average duration of 5.8, we’d expect a price decline of about 19% over the period, offset somewhat by the fund collecting some interest over those two years. (Also note that the fund holds corporate bonds as well as government-backed bonds, so the change in yield was a bit different than we see here.)

Essentially, any intermediate-term bond fund (and especially long-term bond funds) had a terrible year in 2022. That’s just the math of what happens when yields go up. For instance:

Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF was down by 10.67% in 2022.
Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund was down by 11.85%.
Vanguard Intermediate-Term Investment-Grade Fund was down by 13.78%.

The flip side of course is that all of those funds look much more attractive now, with their higher yields.

In our specific household, we aren’t using bonds as “a thing to rebalance with stocks.” Rather, we’re just planning to hold the bonds until they mature, then spend the money. So we want individual TIPS for that. And with long-term TIPS yields well over 2% (very close to 3% in fact), we’re very happy to have the bond part of our portfolio earn inflation plus 2.X% for the next 20-30 years — especially given that for most of our careers, TIPS yields were practically zero and at some times even negative.

What is the Best Age to Claim Social Security?

Read the answers to this question and several other Social Security questions in my latest book:

Social Security Made Simple: Social Security Retirement Benefits and Related Planning Topics Explained in 100 Pages or Less

Click here to see it on Amazon.

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Financial Planning Roundup: Help Wanted (Technical Editor)

Mike — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 12:00:11 +0000

I find myself coming back to the FBI’s cybercrime stats over and over, because they’re just mind-blowing. Over the last decade (2015-2025), annual losses to cybercrime for people age 60+ grew by an annualized rate of 39%.

For comparison, NVIDIA’s annual revenue also grew by 39% annualized from 2015-2025. And over that time NVIDIA went from being a company most people hadn’t heard of to being the largest or second largest company in the world. (It’s a tight race with Apple at the moment.)

So it’s safe to say that cybercrime is a growth industry in the US right now. (It has been growing rapidly with victims under age 60 as well, just not as rapidly.)

I’ve been writing about the topic here on the blog this year, corresponding with readers, and discussing the topic with clients. (I also picked up a few cybersecurity-related certifications along the way, so that I could speak and write about it more intelligently.)

And after learning more about it and discussing it with so many people, I’m pretty firmly convinced that cybersecurity should be considered another core area of personal finance — no different from insurance planning, for instance. To spend decades working, saving, and investing, only to then leave the proverbial doors wide open to would-be thieves makes no sense. (And, just like with dangerous gaps in insurance coverage, most people with dangerous cybersecurity gaps aren’t doing it intentionally.)

Within the personal finance realm though, most of what you’ll see written about cybersecurity and fraud prevention is essentially a) telling the reader to freeze their credit and b) descriptions of types of scams. To be clear, it is a good idea to freeze your credit. And it is valuable to be aware of the common types of scams. But the reality is that “don’t fall for scams” is not a sufficient cybersecurity policy. A policy that relies on always getting it right, every time, your whole life, is simply not good enough.

To that end, I’ve been working on a book (current working title: A CPA’s Guide to Cybersecurity: How to (Hopefully) Not Get Hacked or Lose Your Financial Accounts to Fraud).

It’s not finished yet, but it’s getting closer and closer. It’s at the stage where I could use the assistance of somebody who works in cybersecurity, who could serve as technical editor. If that’s something you’d be open to doing, please get in touch.

Update: thank you to everybody who got in touch! I have found multiple people to provide their expertise as technical editors.

What is the Best Age to Claim Social Security?

Read the answers to this question and several other Social Security questions in my latest book:

Social Security Made Simple: Social Security Retirement Benefits and Related Planning Topics Explained in 100 Pages or Less

Click here to see it on Amazon.

You may unsubscribe at any time by clicking the link at the bottom of this email (or by removing this RSS feed from your feed reader if you have subscribed via a feed reader).

Oblivious Investor

Ways that Owning Individual Stocks Can Go Wrong

What is the Best Age to Claim Social Security?

Financial Planning Roundup: 153 Million Drivers License Scans Made Illegally Available for Sale

Other Recommended Reading

What is the Best Age to Claim Social Security?

A TIPS Ladder in a Single ETF? (Northern Trust Inflation-Linked Distributing Ladder ETFs)

What is the Best Age to Claim Social Security?

Financial Planning Roundup: The Index Fund Turns 50 Today

Other Recommended Reading

What is the Best Age to Claim Social Security?

Why Do Passkeys Prevent Phishing?

Phishing via Malicious Website

Phishing via Malicious Communication

What is the Best Age to Claim Social Security?

Financial Planning Roundup: Long-Term TIPS Yielding 3%

Other Recommended Reading

What is the Best Age to Claim Social Security?

Reducing Spending Throughout Retirement

Median vs Mean

Reducing Spending by Choice

Why People Reduce Spending

What is the Best Age to Claim Social Security?

Financial Planning Roundup: Vanguard Funds Add “Morningstar” to Their Name

Other Recommended Reading

What is the Best Age to Claim Social Security?

Is a Total Bond Fund Still an Acceptable Core Bond Holding?

What is the Best Age to Claim Social Security?

Financial Planning Roundup: Help Wanted (Technical Editor)

Other Recommended Reading

What is the Best Age to Claim Social Security?