the OGA Blog

The Colonel's Calculations vs. Big Tex's Guts, Round One

2011-04-12T23:54:00.003-05:00

The first round of the 2011 Stanley Cup Playoffs begins Wednesday night. As such, it's prognosticatin' time again. The Colonel is down in the Caribbean paradise (or maybe not) that is Haiti, a.k.a. "The Land That Internet Forgot". Though he lacks the ability to climb up into the Interwebs, The Colonel was able to text me his first round picks, as well as the calculations behind them. Let's compare The Colonel's Calculations to Big Tex's Guts, shall we?

The Colonel's Calculations

The Colonel made his picks using a stat-based approach. First, he looked at the regular season performances of the five post-Lockout Stanley Cup Champs. Their stats average out as follows:

Wins per 5 games: 3.36
Shots For/Shots Against: 32/27
PP: >19.1%
PK: 83.3%
Cup winners outscored opponents in every period, but greatest goal differential to lowest was (by period): 3rd, 1st, 2nd
Teams also got a big boost if they won at least 7 of their last 10 games.

With the above factors in mind, The Colonel's first round picks for 2011 are:

Capitals over Rangers
Canucks over Blackhawks
Sharks over Kings
Sabres over Flyers
Bruins over Canadiens
Coyotes over Red Wings
Ducks over Predators
Lightning over Penguins

Big Tex's Guts

When it comes to the playoffs, Yours Truly likes to throw cold, hard numbers out the window and go with a gut call. With a minimum of verbiage, here are my first round winners and losers, and why:

Capitals over Rangers - As a passionate Rangers fan, it pains me to make this call. If the Blueshirts' oh-so-talented youngsters had more experience, if Marian Gaborik were...Marian Gaborik, and most importantly, if Ryan Callahan were healthy, this series goes to New York. Chin up, Rangers fans - this team is going to make some playoff noise...in another year or two.

Canucks over Blackhawks - This is the year Vancouver gets past Chicago. The 'Hawks have plenty of talent, but not enough Ladd, Burish or Byfuglien to beat the Canucks this time around. And let's face it: it took a truly crapulent 0-3-3 run by the Stars from 19 MAR - 2 APR for Chicago to even make it into the playoffs. I like the Blackhawks, but they're not worthy.

Sharks over Kings - No Kopitar, no Williams, no brainer. San Jose will be Vancouver's biggest obstacle on the road to the Cup.

Flyers over Sabres - The Sabres are red-hot coming into the playoffs, while the Flyers appear to have stumbled in like a drunk coming home to the wrong house. Nonetheless, this is the playoffs, and the Sabres still reside in the city of Buffalo, which was (apparently) built on an ancient indian burial ground and is thus accursed. Flyers win without even sobering up.

Bruins over Canadiens - The Habs will be one-and-done simply because A) Boston is just that good, and B) Vancouver needs to bear the burden of being The Only Canadian Team Remaining In The Stanley Cup Playoffs, a.k.a. Canada's Last Hope, for three full playoff rounds. Suck it up, Canuckleheads.

Red Wings over Coyotes - The Hated Red Wings win this series not because Phoenix isn't worthy, but because I desperately want Phoenix to win. And because Phoenix desperately needs to win a playoff round (or four). Detroit, The Destroyer Of All That Is Good In My Hockey World, in three. Yes, three.

Predators over Ducks - Speaking of teams which desperately need to win a playoff round...fortunately, Nashville gets to bypass Detroit in the first round. Jordin Tootoo goes all Jeff Gillooly on Corey Perry in Game One, and it's all downhill from there.

Lightning over Penguins - No Crosby, no Malkin, no brainer. How y'all liking that Neal & Niskanen for Goligoski trade now, Pittsburgh? As the late, great Johnny Cash said, "Well, I fooled you/I fooled you/I got pig iron/I got pig iron/I got aaallll pig iron".

So there it is, folks: statistical calculations vs. plain ol' guts. Within two weeks, we'll know which one is better. In the meantime, we got us some playoff hockey to watch. In the immortal words of Marvin Gaye, "Let's Get It On."

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

Exploiting the NFL

2011-03-27T23:27:00.006-05:00

For those who bleed Hockey, a little slice of fictional heaven...

At 3:04 p.m. on Saturday, March 12, 2011, Gary Bettman calls the meeting to order. The required NHL staff was in the room with him, but there was a notable teleconference of the 30 NHL teams’ owners and GMs mutely staring back at him through the lone Polycom device in the middle of the table.

“Gentlemen,” he begins. “We are here today to get a GO/NO GO vote from all teams on the initiative I mentioned in a broad strokes email message yesterday. We are here today to determine if we, as a League, are going to exploit the NFL Lockout for the greater good of Hockey.”

He paused a minute for that to sink in. You could feel the nervous excitement through the electronic silence.

“…There are a couple of things to say up front,” he continued. “We have sent out back channel feelers to Direct TV, NBC/Versus, CBS, ESPN and FOX networks in the United States. Any deal we have at worst would have us splitting September TV rights with the NFL coming out of a Lockout. For example, we would get either the 12 or 3 p.m. slot on all U.S. networks on Sundays, even if the Lockout does not persist. This will elongate our season in some respects as we will discuss below. But for our efforts, we get the prime time Monday night matchup unless the NFL comes back on line at which time we will get another week night, most likely on Fridays. But until they come back, we fill all open slots with our games. And, of course, there is no change on games provided to our Canadian broadcast partners. The new revenues will obviously be substantial. But the overall increase in exposure is the crux of the impact to our League.”

Again there was a short pause of silence, calculated by the Commissioner to allow some comments to pass back and forth by owners and their GMs who were taking the call together. He could not imagine any dissent over these two points.

“…And before we take a roll call vote of teams, I need to add the following. In light of man games lost to injury we have throughout the season, and because we want to have our best players on the ice at all times, we need to provide a means to produce more recovery time. That has driven some recommended changes to scheduling I have had our Hockey Operations team burning the midnight oil over. I will now let them tell you what I am talking about.”

As the rundown of changes began, the fundamental transformation to how the NHL season is played are obvious. Those changes include:

1. The league will play an 84-game season. This allows for: home-and-away against all teams in the other Conference; three games against all teams in the other divisions in a team’s Conference, and six against Division rivals.

2. The 2011-12 season begins three weeks earlier than in 2010-11. Pre-season camps cannot begin before 20 August and end no later than 1 September. Teams still coordinate their own pre-season schedule, but nobody plays more than five pre-season contests. Regular season play begins the week of 3 – 9 September when the NFL is otherwise scheduled to kickoff. It ends the week of 24 – 30 March. Playoffs follow thereafter with rounds scheduled as follows:

Round 1: 2 – 15 April
Round 2: 17 – 30 April
Round 3: 2 – 15 May
Round 4: 17, 19, 20, 22, 24, 26 and 27 May

3. Season ‘special circumstances’ scheduling occurs as follows:

Thanksgiving Break 23 – 25 November 2011

Christmas Break 23 – 27 December 2011

All Star Break 26 – 29 January 2012 (‘Old Timers’ Game and Fantasy Draft on 27 January; All Star Game on 28 January)

2012 NHL Entry Draft 1 – 2 June 2012

4. Season weeks run Saturdays through the following Fridays. For all teams, two games are played between Saturday and Monday to facilitate weekend crowds and the increase in U.S. television broadcasts. Deference is paid to U.S. college football with fewer games on Saturdays than Sunday schedules hold. High profile rivalries are highlighted for Sunday prime time and Monday games.

5. Teams play Intra-Conference foes three times back-to-back-to-back and across Conference lines in back-to-back pairs. This facilitates short, sharp rivalries with no history lost between contests such as seeing a team in October and then not again until March.

6. Fundamentally, no team plays greater than three games in an NHL week more than four times during the season. In most cases, teams only play four games in seven days just three times. Where teams play four games in one week, the first pair is executed Saturday through Monday and the second, Tuesday through Friday. The additional recovery time afforded by spreading out the schedule can only work to our benefit in icing more complete teams.

7. While there are a greater number of road trips, travel costs are offset by increased television revenues. Road trips, due to alternating home and away schedules, are no longer than four games long.

8. The season begins with Intra-Divisional battles over the first five weeks and ends the same way. This opens and closes the year with a playoff-like atmosphere in all NHL cities, building momentum for both the regular season’s launch and the start of the playoffs.

9. The divisions also receive a reorganizational overhaul in order to tighten up regions and highlight strong rivalries. They look like this:

Eastern Conference
Northeast Division: BOS, MTL, OTT, TOR, and BUF
Tri-State Division: NJD, NYI, NYR, PHI and PIT
Central Division: CAR, CHI, CBJ, DET and WSH

Western Conference
Southern Division: FLA, TBL, ATL, NSH and DAL
Northwest Division: STL, COL, MIN, CGY and EDM
Pacific Division: PHX, ANA, LAK, SJS and VAN

As a side note to questions, Hockey Operations explained i f Phoenix has to move to, say, Winnipeg, then you have:

Western Division: COL, ANA, LAK, SJS and VAN
Great Plains Division: STL, MIN, WPG, CGY and EDM

Otherwise, there are no further changes to any Divisions or Conferences.
The Commissioner then continued. “And in order to allow you to visualize these changes, we are sending you right now a draft schedule of matchups broken down weekly for the regular season.” With a nod and a stab in the air to indicate ‘ENTER’ on an imaginary computer, the file was sent to all teams.

Hockey Operations continued. “…When you look at the schedule, home games are in bold. Two bold letters to a lone team name means they have home advantage for the week. That happens for half of all game pairings. Two bold letters in a team name with a slash afterwards indicates which half of the week a team is playing and the desired order of home and away games. This facilitates road trips without bouncing away, then back home, and finally on the road again in quick succession. As you can see, this schedule is doable and frankly could have always been a course of action for play in a season. We just have not chosen to do so to date.”

The Commissioner interrupted the conversation for a short interjection. “Our intent for European games this season is spread them out a bit. We are currently negotiating for Calgary and Philadelphia in Stockholm 8 and 9 October, Washington and Nashville in Moscow 19 and 20 November, and Pittsburgh and Vancouver 10 – 11 December. Those games are indicated in red and white highlighting on the file.”

And Operations followed up with, “There is also room for scheduling options based on arena availability. Intra-Divisional weeks can be played on back-to-back nights with at least a full night off before Game 3, or can be played as a home-away-home triple with travel days in between. Our scheduling folks will speak with all teams about their constraints once you have looked at the schedule and discussed it between opposing clubs for a recommendation to the actual calendar. Are there any questions?”

“Just one. Are we doing this for only one season?” asked Toronto Maple Leafs’ GM Brian Burke.

“Good question. The answer is no. We intend to repeat this in the 2012-13 season and, using momentum from 2011-12, take on the NFL head-to-head. We will reevaluate our League position after then.”

A few more questions are asked before the vote, primarily circulating around divisional reorganization. There is nothing insurmountable, however. The vote is 28-2 in favor of pushing ahead from the teams.

“Ok then. We set it in motion. Work the draft schedule over the next week and we will have another conference call on March 19th to solidify our plan. Then we will go to the networks for what I am calling initial consultations for contracting the 2011-12 season broadcast agreements contingent upon the NFL Lockout remaining in place. That is all for now.”

…And thus is borne what becomes a fruitful extension of the inroads the NHL is making in the United States market which benefits the League, its teams and players, and Hockey fans as a whole.

Ah, to dream, perchance, to imagine. For in the dreams of (an NFL season) death what opportunities may come…

(Playoff) Border Wars

2011-03-13T12:07:00.003-05:00

Hockey is combat. With injury rates on each team greater than casualty figures for units in the U.S. Civil War, don’t let anyone tell you different.

When you add in that the average difference in the East between 8th and 9th seed since the Lockout has been 1.2 points, in the West, 2.8 points, and overall, only 2 points, it is understandable that the battle for final playoff seeds will once again go down to the wire.

How do the teams engaged in these ‘Border Wars’ stack up through Saturday, 12 March's games? We compare those in the range of the playoff possible below…

Eastern Battles

Eastern teams within two points of the final,projected point spread of the 8th seed based on On Goal Analysis’ ability to project from all possible points that can be awarded are only the NYR and BUF.

NYR are projected at the #7 seed with 90 – 91 points, behind #6-projected MTL by 7 – 8 points. They are winning at a .543 clip, just under the Eastern Conference’s average winning percentage (W%) of .550. They have 12 games left to play which include: one each with MTL and BUF who bookend their projected position; two with BOS and one each with PIT and PHI who are playing at better than the Eastern W%; and six additional games against NYI (x2 – a traditional thorn in the side), FLA, OTT, ATL and NJD. The Rangers have won three of their last four games. NYR has only had four players in all 70 games so far this season and currently has injuries reported to DelZotto, Biron, Boogaard, Frolov and Drury. Caution: If NYR needs a win against NJD in their last game of the season, they may be in trouble.

BUF is projected at the #8 seed with 90 – 91 points, behind #7-projected NYR by 1 point or less and ahead of #9-projected CAR by 4 – 5 points. They have a .523 W%, also under the Eastern Conference’s average by greater than .025. They have 14 games left to play which include: two against CAR and one vs NYR who rest on their flanks; one each with NSH, MTL, WSH, TBL and PHI who are all sporting W%’s better than .580; and six additional games against OTT, ATL, FLA, NJD, TOR and CBJ. The Sabres have lost two of their last three games, a trend they need to reverse. BUF has only one player, Tyler Ennis, who has participated in all 68 games for the team this season. Their injured roster includes Butler, Gaustad, Kaleta, Stafford, Lalime and Roy. Caution: The stretch of NJD, TOR, NYR, WAS, CAR and TBL from 26 MAR to 5 APR will make or break them as far as the playoffs go this season.

Honorable mentions: CAR likely to finish 9th with 85 – 87 points; ATL weighs in at 9th or 10th with 83 – 85 points; NJD – with a great comeback attempt – likely to come in at 9th – 11th with 84 – 86 points; and TOR rests at 10th to 12th seed with 82 – 84 points.

It looks like the East boils down to PHI, WSH, BOS, PIT, TBL, MTL, NYR and BUF with CAR falling just short.

Western Conflict

The competition in the untamed West is even more ferocious for teams that are within three points of the final, projected point spread of the 8th seed. Teams in this range include CHI, ANA, PHX, NSH and CGY.

CHI is projected at the #6 seed with 97 – 98 points, behind #5-projected LAK by 1-2 points. They are winning at a .596 clip, above the West’s average W% of .570. They have 14 games left to play which include: only one game against PHX in the Border Wars gang; three with DET including a Black and Blue pair on 8 and 10 APR to close out the season; games against WSH, SJS, DAL, BOS, TBL and MTL who are all playing at a W% greater than .600; and four more games against FLA, EDM, CBJ and STL. The Blackhawks have gone 0-1-1 in their last two following an eight game W streak. CHI has only had three players compete in all 68 games so far this season and currently has injuries reported to Bolland, Campbell, Hendry and Johnsson. Caution: Three games left versus DET, including the away-and-home pair to close out the season may give the ‘Hawks some fits.

ANA is projected at the #7 seed with 96 – 97 points, behind #6-projected CHI by 1-2 points. They are winning at a .581 clip, still above the West’s average W%. They have 14 games left to play which include: two games against CGY and one each against PHX and CHI within the Border Wars circle; they have three with LAK including another Black and Blue pair on 8 and 9 APR to close out the season; two each against DAL and SJS and one versus NSH who look to be in the Western playoffs already; and one more each against STL and COL. The Ducks are 5-1-1 in their last seven games which is the right trend for right now. ANA has only Perry and Ryan who have made every opening faceoff and currently reports injuries to Blake, Hiller and Jafray. Caution: Two speed bumps for the standings may crop up: LAK, CGY, DAL, NSH and CHI from 19 – 26 MAR and CGY, SJS DAL, SJS, and 2x LAK closing out the season from 30 MAR – 9 APR.

PHX is projected at #8 with 95 – 96 points, behind #7-projected ANA by about 1 point. They are winning at a .587 clip, ahead of the Wests’ W%. They have 13 games left to play which include: only one game against ANA, CGY and CHI from the Border Wars group; they have three against SJS with that Black and Blue pair on 8 and 9 APR to close out the season; games against VAN, DAL, and LAK who are already projected in the playoffs; and four more games against EDM, STL, CBJ and COL. The Coyotes have gone 2-0-1 in their last three games. PHX has only four players who have played in all games so far this season and currently has injuries reported to Hanzal, Klesla, Whitney, Sauer and Jovanovski. Caution: PHX games at LAK, and home-and-away versus SJS 6 – 9 APR may have a huge impact in terms of points and player health rolling toward the playoffs.

NSH is projected at the #9 seed with 94 – 95 points, behind #8-projected PHX by 1-2 points. Their W% is .580, still above the West’s average. They have 13 games left to play which include: ANA as the only Border Wars game; a pair at home against DET; games against LAK, BOS, BUF, DAL, and VAN who are projected as playoff teams; and five more games against EDM, COL, ATL, CBJ and STL. The Predators have gone 4-1-2 in their last six games. NSH has five players who have started all 69 games so far and currently has injuries reported to O’Reilly, Sullivan, Goc, Bouillon and Lombardi. Caution: Complacency versus ATL, CBJ and STL to close out the season may actually close out the season.

CGY is projected at the #10 seed with 94 – 95 points, behind #8-projected PHX and #9-projected NSH by 1-2 points. They are winning at a .570 clip, right at the West’s average W%. They have the least games left at 11 to play which include: two versus ANA and one against PHX in the Border Wars gang; they have one each with LAK, SJS and VAN who are likely seeded above them in the final playoff standings; and two each against COL and EDM and another at STL. The Flames are on an 0-2 mini-streak after going 5-1-1 in the previous seven games. CGY has five players who have made all 71 starts and currently has injuries reported to Jackman, Modin, Morrison, Langkow, Pardy, Wahl, Ivanans and Negrin, the most of all Border Wars teams. Caution: Their final 11 games over 26 days / one-game-every-2.36 days is a double edged sword. It is good for recovery purposes, but is a slower rhythm than the rest of the teams they struggle against for the final playoff positions.

Honorable mentions: MIN likely to finish 11th with 91 – 92 points and the final Western team projected over 90 would likely nudge out #7 NYR and/or #8 BUF for a playoff seed were they in the Eastern Conference.

Most likely in the Western Conference, we are looking at VAN, DET, SJS, DAL and LAK with three of CHI, ANA, PHX and NSH rounding out the top eight.

Summary

Ladies and Gentlemen, the Border Wars in the Eastern and Western Conferences will decide who rounds out the final playoff pictures. History tells us only once – EDM in 2005/6 – has a team below the fifth seed at the end of the regular season been a Stanley Cup finalist. So the odds are against survivors of the Border Wars playing into June. But you never know, so gather your provisions, reload the batteries on your remote, strap on your recliner, and enjoy the Border Wars from now until April 10th.

Attacking The Neutral Zone Trap?

2011-03-11T06:57:00.007-06:00

Here at On Goal Analysis, we have a recommendation for study during the next NHL R&D Camp.

If there remains a desire to increase scoring, how about trying to attack one of the key areas where puck movement gets clogged up – the Neutral Zone?

We propose testing a change to the Offside Rule in order to increase the potential for scoring chances.

The Rule

It is pretty clear what Off-sides is in the NHL rule book: “…83.1 Off-side - Players of the attacking team must not precede the puck into the attacking zone….”

How do you potentially alter this rule without inducing ‘down town hockey’ and the reason off sides was introduced as a rule in the first place. The intent would decidedly NOT be to remove a definition of off-sides altogether, just to, in effect, extend the neutral zone.

Our proposal would read, “…83.1.1 Off-side – No more than one player of the attacking team may precede the puck into the attacking zone as deep as the nearest mark for the faceoff circles before the puck crosses the attacking zone blue line….”

What The Change Looks Like

Graphically, the change in the rule as stated above looks like this:

There are at least four, basic passing routes to get the puck into the attacking zone. In a transition to offense, the attacking team may send what could be called a ‘Rover’ across the attacking blue line once they have possession of the puck, but the early man would have to remain on the defending side of the faceoff circles until the puck comes across the blue line (see the imaginary, dotted blue line in the picture above).

Second And Third Orders Of Effect

Perhaps the most obvious effect this none-too-subtle change would spawn is an elongation of the neutral zone as in the graphic below:

If we may provide the blinding flash of the obvious (BFO), the Rover forces at least one, if not two, foes backwards out of the neutral zone in order to defend against the deep attacker. That unclogs the neutral zone by at least one – if not two – defenders and buys attackers more real estate to set up scoring chances.

It will force players to see ‘deeper’ down the ice and therefore, mentally play the game faster.

It will put a premium on skaters – and even goalies – who can pass the puck tape-to-tape as accurately and long-range as possible in order to facilitate quick attacks up ice.

It will potentially open up the offensive spread in the zone as one player is now positioned deeper down the ice.

It will potentially create a new emphasis on using more of the middle of the ice over the attacking zone blue line than the ‘rim around’ push along the boards depending on the Rovers’ position.

It will potentially create more scoring chances as the Rover may get in behind the defense like a player does now on a breakaway.

Where the attack breaks down due to bad/intercepted passes, it potentially creates more opportunities to quickly transition to an odd-man attack back into zone.

Overall, it supports offensive hockey, potentially creating a quick method to score with less players clogging up the Neutral Zone. In effect, its implementation serves to break up the Neutral Zone trap.

Lest You Think It’s Completely Absurd…

…This idea can be exploited under current, no-red line rules in its desired effect. Current rules have a Rover remaining on his defending side of the blue line until the puck crosses it. But a defender/forward that is moving the puck up ice simply has to loft a puck over the neutral zone to a spot somewhere between the attacking zone blueline and the top of the faceoff circles instead of sending it along the ice. With skill and good placement, the puck crossing the blue line in the air releases the Rover to follow it into the attacking zone, potentially behind the defenders. It is, in military terms, an ‘air assault’ play into the attacking zone.

Summary

So we would like to see the neutral zone opened up in favor of more offensively oriented hockey by redefining the off-sides rule to allow for up to one Rover over the attacking zone blue line and north of the faceoff circles prior to the puck’s arrival. This change could fundamentally alter hockey tactics and potentially increase scoring chances/goals due to the increased space it provides on the ice.

A candidate for the next NHL R&D Camp? Why not take this baby out for a test spin?

We say give 'er a shot.

Phoenix Restructures the NHL

2011-03-09T10:35:00.005-06:00

I’ll say it. In my opinion, The Goldwater Institute is inspired by the late Senator Barry Goldwater’s stated proclivity if elected President back in the 60’s to ‘drop The Bomb’ on North Vietnam in order to end the Vietnam War. They, for whatever ACLUesque, Quixotic reason desire to force the Phoenix Coyotes to move, Arizonans to lose jobs and Hockey to suffer in a market where it is beginning to grow at all ages/levels. Their motto should be “I Threaten, Therefore I Am.”

That said, what if Phoenix moves to Winnipeg, possibly resurrecting the Jets of old? How should the NHL re-align? If there’s no getting around the loss of Phoenix to the Western Conference, what are our options here?

The Simple Geographic

One method is for the NHL to do their best to simplify realigning based on two things: geographic distance from other teams and the least disruption possible to current Divisional organization. That might look something like this:

Western Conference

Pacific Division: SJS, LAK, ANA, DAL, COL

Northwest Division: VAN, EDM, CGY, WIN, MIN

Central Division: No Change

Eastern Conference

Southeast Division: No Change

Atlantic Division: No Change

Northeast Division: No Change

This Course Of Action (COA) has the least disruption that could be imagined and is probably the preferred COA to execute.

While some folks may say, “COL = Pacific? What are you talking about?” Is DAL near the Pacific other than when it flies to California?

And some pundits south of the 49th Parallel may smugly offer, ‘With four Canadian teams in one division, that’ll give Canada a better shot at winning a Cup for a change…’ (Silly pundits – there is no conspiracy about who wins Lord Stanley’s Cup. It always goes to who wants it more.)

The Alternate Geographic

But what if the NHL likes their change shaken, not stirred? They could wind up doing the following:

Western Conference

Pacific Division: SJS, LAK, ANA, VAN, COL

Northern Division: EDM, CGY, WIN, MIN, CHI

Central Division: STL, NSH, CBJ, DET, TOR

Eastern Conference

Southern Division: DAL, ATL, TBL, FLA, CAR

Atlantic Division: WSH, PIT, PHI, NYR, NYI

Northeast Division: BUF, OTT, MTL, BOS, NJD

There are many reasons to say this wouldn’t be done.

Foremost is that it is more revolutionary than evolutionary and solid organizations usually stand upon a foundation grounded in the latter.

Additionally, several rivalries are broken up: TOR from the Eastern Conference; BUF-TOR; WSH out of the Southeast; NJD from the NY/NJ state-o-plex; and a basic unbalancing of Canadian teams between the Conferences of four in the West and two in the East all come to mind at first glance.

But there are some arguments to be made for this COA as well. All near-Pacific teams are actually in the Pacific division; a ‘Southern’ division is now truly southern in American terms; and if any Canadian team can transition to the Western Conference, it’s Brian Burke’s Maple Leafs.

While this wouldn’t be a traditional, military-style ‘throw away’ COA (one that is completely out of the box just thrown on the table for hasty discussion and discarding amongst the COAs you are really interested in implementing), it would likely not be as popular with HQ-NHL because it flies in the face of some NHL historical precedents, for the number of differences and the other detractors listed above.

And yet, there is now the Shannahan Factor in NHL research and change implementation. Hmmm…

The Alternate Alternative

Lest we forget one quickly spoken statement in Commissioner Bettman’s Phoenix press conference the other day, there are other options than simply considering Winnipeg for a move of the Yotes. Not knowing if that is Toronto (II), Quebec or even Hamilton, let’s just for the moment call this team TORQUEHAM. With ‘The T’ in the League because of a move, you could make the NHL look like this:

Western Conference

Northwest Division: SJS, VAN, EDM, CGY, COL

Southern Division: LAK, ANA, DAL, TBL, FLA

Mid-West Division: MIN, STL, CHI, NSH, DET

Eastern Conference

Central Division: ATL, CAR, CBJ, PIT, PHI

Atlantic Division: WSH, NJD, NYR, NYI, BOS

Northern Division: TOR, BUF, TORQUEHAM, OTT, MTL

How do you like those apples? Here are some cool reasons to go this route if any new resting place for the Coyotes winds up East of Lake Michigan:

The Northeast Division has a nice, tight, travel shot group.

The Southern Division is where everyone will want to be on the road to in January and February (although we do note the extreme East-to-West Coast distances).

The Mid-West Division adds MIN who seems, in my mind, to always have been missing from the same division as CHI.

The Central Division tightens up their travel shot group like the Northeast.
The Atlantic is now all along the Atlantic seaboard.

And TORQUEHAM’s new division will be an all Canadian quartet playing BUF for the pride of the USA every night.

There could even be branch plan to the above, call it ‘The AA II,’ that could alter the Conferences as follows:

Northwest Division: No Change From Immediately Above

Southern Division: No Change From Immediately Above

Mid-West Division (West): MIN, STL, CHI, NSH, ATL

Central Division (East): CAR, CBJ, WSH, PIT, PHI

Atlantic Division (East): BUF, NJD, NYR, NYI, BOS

Northern Division (East): DET, TOR, TORQUEHAM, OTT, MTL

Both are intriguing, yes?

The Return Of Toto

Wait a minute… What if the new location is Kansas City? What if the NHL goes for long-term, grow-the-gamedness versus immediately potential monetary impact? What if that nice new arena waved under NYI’s nose two years ago is the targeted landing spot for a displaced Phoenix franchise?

How about these combinations:

Western Conference

Northwest Division: SJS, VAN, EDM, CGY, COL

Southern Division: LAK, ANA, DAL, TBL, FLA

Mid-West Division: MIN, STL, KAN, CHI, NSH

Eastern Conference

Central Division: ATL, CAR, CBJ, PIT, PHI

Atlantic Division: WSH, NJD, NYR, NYI, BOS

Northern Division: DET, TOR, BUF, OTT, MTL

That gives you pause for a moment, doesn’t it? Any way you slice this option, Kansas City as a destination for the franchise makes a modified form of one of the Alternate Alternatives a more likely, final COA to adopt.

Summary

There are at least five options out there if Phoenix is moved due to the obstructionist methods of The Goldwater Institute.

If Winnipeg is the destination, then the most likely COA is go with The Simple Geographic change that creates the least amount of change and turmoil. The Alternate Geographic is less likely to occur as a more revolutionary than evolutionary change, but an interesting alternative to still consider.

If the Coyotes move east of Michigan, two equally enticing prospects come to mind. The Alternate Alternative or The AA II are equally intriguing, and the best COA comes down to whether you want DET or BUF taking on four Canadian teams in their division.

The Return Of Toto assumes a move to Kansas City is the final choice. It is an thought-provoking spin on The Alternate Alternative and her sister, The AA II, that keeps the moving franchise south of the 49th Parallel where The Great Game has a better chance of growing and expanding that returning the club to a Canadian market whose love of the game can only swing in less than 10% increments upwards.

You can hypothesize changes to NHL divisions any number of ways. But you can hang on your hat on the idea that changes to Phoenix cannot come without restricting NHL divisions.

Take me to On Goal Analysis

(THEY’RE) GOING STREAKING!!!: Again…

2011-03-07T16:29:00.003-06:00

Yesterday in “ (THEY’RE) GOING STREAKING!!! ”, we threw out the notion that streaks in the NHL are more than just ‘how many in a row’ a current team is. The Streak statistic is really a three-part proposition which includes a Winning Streak (WS), Point Streak (PS) and Losing Streak (LS) for every team.

We loaded you up with facts about Streaking in the Eastern Conference and provided a nice table showing you how teams stack up. And we pointed out perhaps the most telling number in these stats is the difference between the number of winning streaks versus losing streaks as they are a better indication of why a team is where they are.

So today let’s compare what you eye-balled in the East with what it looks like ‘Out West.’

Streaking Western Style

Streaks of the winning variety and in good quantity are the difference maker in Western Conference standings. They are, indeed, and indicator of who is in the hunt for a Playoff seed in almost every case. Here are the comparative figures for the WS’:

Average Western WS Length – 6.4 (high is CBJ with nine; low are EDM and MIN with four); this is more than one full game in the Streak more than ‘back East.’

Average Number of WS – 7.2 (high is DET with 11; low are EDM and PHX with four); this is .133 of a game below the East and indicates how strong the competition is in the West.

Additionally, and the reason the WS out West is an indicator of who is in competition for a Playoff spot, is because seeds 1 – 8 average 8.25 WS’. The 9th-11th place teams – all of whom are within one point of Number 8 – all have a 9.0 WS’. And the overall average of 1st – 11th place teams is 8.46 WS’. And PHX is in the top eight seeds with only four WS,’ but those Streaks have been seven, two, four and eight games long. This makes them one of those exceptions spoken of in yesterday’s post.

The bottom four spots in Western standings? CBJ, STL, COL and EDM only hold a WS average of 3.75. COL, as an example of how the lack of WS’ affects a team, has had no WS’ since 18 JAN in what has likely become an unannounced rebuilding year for the franchise.

Between East and West for teams in the mix for a playoff spot, the West’s longest WS’ beats the East 6.364 games – to – 5.667. Convexly, the average number of Eastern WS’ is greater than the West at 9.222 games – to – 8.455. But as an extreme example, if you multiply the longest WS’ by the average number of times they occur, the West’s figure is 53.808 while the East’s is 52.261 – the West will win more than 1.5 games more than the East at this pace.

In terms of the Point Streak, there is not a great deal of difference between the two conferences:

Average Western PS Length – 7.4 (high is VAN with 17, the most in the NHL; low is MIN with four); this is .133 less than in the East.

Average Number of PS’ – 8.933 (high is MIN with 14, a reason they are hanging in the race for the final seed(s); low is PHX with six); this is the same figure as in the other Conference.

Of interest here is the difference between Conferences for every team within striking distance of a Playoff seed (as of last Sunday night). In the East, positions 1 – 9 average an 8.0 PS’ while 1 – 11 in the West have a 9.273average. This is why you can add up the total points awarded by game play or projected by On Goal Analysis per team and get 74.933 / 93.281 in the West respectively and 72 / 89.891 in the East.

Losing Streaks – the LS’ – also show a significant departure both from within the Conference and when compared to the East:

Average Western LS Length – 5.2 (high is COL with 10; low are CHI and DET with three); this is .667 better than in the East.

Average Number of LS’ – 7.133 (high is PHX with 11 that average 2.546 in length, a reason they are still in the hunt for a Playoff spot; low is VAN with four, the lowest in the League); this is .533 greater than in the other Conference (because lower is better in this category).

Think there’s competition in the West? Heck, you can see it as the standings jump around each and every day. But wrap your head around this combination of stats reference the LS: while the average longest LS in the West is 5.2 and more than half a game less than in the East, for teams still within one point or less of the 8th seed, in the West that average is 4.636 versus the East’s 4.333. So the top Western teams tend to lose less games back-to-back than the East overall. That disparity plummets even greater for teams who are chasing more of their tail than the leaders of the pack (6.75 LS’ on average for the bottom, Western four teams versus 8.167 LS’ for the East’s bottom six).

The West’s Chart
Here is what it looks like, again, with the current Streak and average leaders in bold:

Of interest here is that the difference in LS’ from WS’ is greater – there are more of them – in the West than in the East. But the reason for greater actual and potential point value per team rests in the fact that LS’ in the West are shorter in average length and number.

Going into the playoffs for the West, your important note is still to watch your favorite team for runs increasing the longest, or number of, LS’. Western Stanley Cup Finalists since the Lockout over the last 10 games of the regular season have an even WS : LS ratio. And only DET in ’07-’08 did not have any LS’ in that same timespan. More telling for the West in their last 10 games is that the ratio in length of WS to LS is 3.4 : 2 with Stanley Cup Winners averaging 4.333 : 1.667. When compared to the East, these numbers indicate that Western Cup Finalists’ last 10 games of the regular season display longer WS’ and PS’. There is also a greater WS to LS. ratio present.

In Summation

By comparison, the West leads the East in terms of length of WS’ and shortness in length and quantity of LS. The East’s number of WS outdistances the West, as does their length of PS and differential between WS and LS. It all adds up to the West being more competitive than the East in terms of how long they win and how short they lose back-to-back.

The averages in the three stat categories of WS and PS and LS for Stanley Cup Finalists over the last 10 games of the regular season indicate fans should be looking for the following out of your team as the Playoffs near:

East: Average WS’ of 2.5 or more games; average PS’ of more than 3.5 games; and average LS’ of only one games.

West: Average WS’ of three or more games; average PS’ of five games; and average LS’ of two games.

Remember, however, as you line up to dog out PHI and say they are imploding before the playoffs over their recent four-game losing streak. It is, after all, their longest of the season and all…

PHI has had five losing streaks this season when the Eastern average is 7.667. Their losing streaks averaged a combined 2.8 games in length, while, again, the Eastern average is 5.867. They are also seven wins in front of the 8th seed after game splayed on Sunday night. All that needs to happen is they set their sights on getting back in the ‘W’ column at least by the end of the third game from now versus ATL, follow it up with wins versus FLA and, again, ATL, and they are back to their winning ways having endured a LS still smaller than the Conference average.

Six games in the West, on the other hand, may be unrecoverable…

(THEY’RE) GOING STREAKING!!!

2011-03-07T00:26:00.004-06:00

What we know for a fact here at On Goal Analysis is that the difference between winning and losing in the National Hockey League is THAT close (see thumb and forefinger a miniscule distance apart here).

You can see in official NHL standings that the last column on the right is entitled ‘Streak.’ That’s got to have some importance, yes? But there is still the question of, “Streak? So what?!”

Let’s look then at the ‘So what?!’ and determine the value of that Streak column in those standings. This will be a two-part blog analyzing first the Eastern Conference and then the West due to their distinctively different winning natures this season.

That’s right – here at On Goal Analysis, we hate to admit it, but we’re watching the NHL as ‘They’re Going Streaking…’

What’s In A Streak?

The NHL stat – which is very popular when you consider the fan outrage at its temporary removal from the standings last year – tells you the latest combination of unbroken W’s or L’s teams have.

Our terms studied are three-fold and carry through games ending Sunday, 6 March:

1. A Winning Streak (WS) is at least two games in a row with any kind of ‘W’ a team can acquire. In the East, the largest WS is 12 games (PIT) while three teams have weighed in with only 3-gamers (BUF, FLA and NYR). The average length of greatest WS is 5.333 games. It is interesting to also note the largest number of WS’ is 13 (NYR), the least, five (NYI), and the average number per team is 7.333.

A large number of WS’ may or may not be a good thing. TOR, currently sitting in the 10th seed, has 10 WS’ this season. Lots of WS’ may conversely show that a team can bounce back from a loss with two or more W’s. BUF, currently the 8th seed, is just such an example. And a small number of WS’ may also show success because winning streaks occur more often for a team than losing streaks. Fourth seed PIT has just six WS’ this year, one less than 14th place NYI.

2. A Point Streak (PS) is at least two games in a row with at least one point awarded. Take note a PS can also be a WS. The East’s longest PS is 15 games (again, for PIT), two teams have had a maximum of only 4-gamers (NYR and OTT), and the average length of the largest PS is 7.533 games. The NYR hold the most number of PS’ with 13, NJD has the least with five, and the average number of PS’ per team is 8.933. Remember: a huge PS may be a bad thing if the vast majority of the PS’ games are of the one-point variety, and this season, also is they are Shoot Out Losses (SOLs) which do not count in the standings’ tiebreakers.

Since the Lockout, the average point differential between the 8th and 9th seeds in the East has been 1.2 points. So perhaps the win-and-a-half spread says that the PS carries more weight than the WS. Again, to keep it all in perspective, remember a 10-game PS with all OTLs/SOLs is worth 10 points in the standings, while a six game WS equals 12. For this season, it is interesting to note all teams with double-digit PS’ except CAR are in the top seven seeds. (CAR is currently 9th.)

3. Finally, a Losing Streak (LS) is at least two games in a row with any flavor of ‘L’ attained. An LS can also be a PS or contain a combination of OTL(s)/SOL(s). The East’s greatest LS is 14 games (NYI), four teams have had only 3-gamers (BOS, CAR, MTL and TBL), and the average length of the largest LS is 7.533 games. The NYR hold the largest number of PS’ with 13, NJD has the least with five, and the average is 8.933.

Again for caution, a bunch of LS’ that are short staccatos of loss are not necessarily a bad thing. The NYR in the 7th seed have 10. Know, too, that every team has ‘em as the top eight seeds in the East range from five – 10 with an average of 6.375.

Observing The Streak

Below, we will show you the numbers on the Eastern Conference teams, but add one more observation here… It is most important in analyzing The Streak to determine the difference between WS’ and LS’. Why? Because of the nine teams above, at, or within 1.2 points of the 8th seed, only two – CAR and PIT – have a negative differential between their WS’ and their LS’. (Note also that the average differential here is in the negative, showing teams tend to have more LS’.)

There are a couple more notes here besides the bold number showing what streak a team is currently running.

ATL had seven of their eight WS’ by 5 JAN which is why they are in their current shape in the standings.

How is BUF hanging in the Playoff race? They have only had one LS since 27 DEC.

NJD only had one WS up through 14 JAN, but has had no LS’ since 8 JAN. This is why NJD fans think they look like they might threaten for one of the final Playoff seeds.

As we head toward the playoffs, what becomes important to note is if your favorite Eastern team increases their longest, or number of, LS’. That is a bad trend that is difficult to pull out of and gain success in the playoffs. Remember here that since the Lockout over the last 10 games of the regular season, Eastern finalists have all had one or more WS’ and PS’ and hold a 1.2 WS:LS ratio. (Last season’s PHI is the only Eastern Finalist to have ANY LS’ over the last 10 games of the regular season.)

Summary

Streaking is a three-pronged analytical tool consisting of the Winning Streak (WS), Point Streak (PS) and Losing Streak (LS). The Streak is about much more than simply ‘how many in a row’ a current team is. The focus of attention in the NHL streak should instead be the difference between the WS and LS where four of five Eastern Stanley Cup finalists since the Lockout have a positive ratio in that regard.

Stay tuned to On Goal Analysis as tomorrow, we take up observation of the Western Conference streak…

An NHL Vision For The Future

2011-02-14T10:37:00.007-06:00

Here at OGA, we believe there is never a horse too dead to kick again. Principally, we like to hypothesize on modification of the NHL schedule. So here we go one more time.

But we would like to do it with an eye toward an overall vision for the NHL. Take this if you want it, Mr. Bettman – there’s no charge for this recommendation.

The Vision

A vision – sometimes called ‘mission’ – statement has to have a simple, clear direction while allowing for an ample margin of flexibility. So here is our recommendation:

The NHL will grow the game of professional hockey over the next five years in order to increase the game’s marketability against other professional sports.

Simple, yes? In fact, it can easily be argued it sounds like the unofficial vision of the NHL already. The difference from our perspective is in how that vision is executed.

It Starts With Organizing ‘The Product’

‘The Product’ here is the presentation of the game to fans and media outlets. In our humble opinion, it has never been better (with the exception of the excitement of the 1980 Olympics and the Edmonton Oiler Stanley Cup era). That said, there are some tweaks that can be applied. Why do it? Because the NHL is on the cusp of passing up other major North American sports in popularity. (And we might add it may be a great year for exploitation if the NFL does not get its CBA in place.) And to tip something over the edge in the direction you want it to go, you apply some obvious pressure to make it happen.

After the words ‘…in order to…’ above, there are two ways to look at how to ‘…increase the game’s marketability….’ On one hand, you can succumb to the position that the NHL can attempt to avoid the draw of college and NFL football as much as possible. Or, you can cross check them into the boards and take them head on, a character trait that runs deep in the core of Hockey.

Take ‘em on, we say.

So in that vein here is our recommendation for The Product, our overall 2011/12 schedule:

27 AUG – 8 SEP 11 (Camp/Pre-Season)
10 SEP – 31 MAR (Regular Season)
23 – 25 NOV Thanksgiving Shutdown
20 DEC – 2 JAN Trade Moratorium
23 – 27 DEC Christmas Shutdown
26 – 29 JAN All-Star Break
26 JAN Fantasy Draft
27 JAN Skills Competition
28 JAN All Star Game
26 FEB – 31 MAR Division Triples
3 – 16 APR (Round 1 Playoffs)
18 – 1 MAY (Round 2 Playoffs)
3 – 16 MAY (Round 3 Playoffs)
17 – 30 MAY (Finals)
1 JUN – Annual NHL Awards Show
2 JUN – Round 1 of Entry Draft
3 JUN – Entry Draft Complete

Our BFO (Blinding Flash of the Obvious) here is recommending starting Training Camp and Pre-Season earlier than in the past. The reasoning is two-fold. First and foremost is to allow for a more predictable schedule (three games per week) with a less games-to-days ratio (1:2.3) that allows for better team and player regeneration. And second is to complete the regular season (on 31 March) and entire season (2 June) earlier than normal.

Most teams have three-to-four days of camp at their facilities before striking out on the road for pre-season games. This schedule would also limit the number of games a team can play in pre-season to no more than five. But in the spirit of "...grow(ing) the game of professional hockey...," teams would have to play at least two games every pre-season in a location where NHL teams do not regularly play.

In conjunction with what is likely the first or second major week of college football and in direct confrontation with the NFL opening weekend – if they have a season this year – the NHL would begin the season with 100% of teams playing on opening night, 10 September 2011. For the sake of those who are nervous about taking on the NFL, weekly games through much of the NFL’s season can hover on Tuesdays through Saturdays. But I would say for the two big brass ones the NHL has, every Sunday and Monday should have premium games scheduled as well – the kind that give a fan of both sports a dilemma as to which channel to tune in.

There will be stoppages for Thanksgiving, Christmas, and the All Star Weekend. The Moratorium on trades over the Christmas holidays will run longer, and the Christmas/Boxing Day break will be both two days before and after Christmas Day, all for the sake of NHL families.

If this schedule continues on out into the future, taking back all but Thanksgiving Day and the three days with Christmas Day residing in the middle buys back one week of an Olympic Break every four years. And then adding one more week into the schedule to make 14 days’ room for the Olympics would simply carry the season’s conclusion out to about where it sits now.

But Wait…

On the surface, 10 September through 31 March minus stoppages is 27.5 weeks. Why so long? That also calls for a two-fold answer.

First is because scheduling guidance would call for teams to play no more than three games per week. The one-game-to-2.33-days ratio will allow for better recovery of the NHL’s key asset, its players. And it lessens strain across the board on all teams’ operations and logistical support. Tell me that could not be of great use when you currently see the rash of injuries in the League, to include to Sidney Crosby, one of the NHL’s great draws.

And second is because the schedule increases to 84-games. That’s to cover one home-and-away game against every other team in the League, one more against inter-conference foes (for a total of three), and four more against intra-divisional rivals (for a total of six). On a higher level, there is now an opportunity for everyone to see Ovechkin, Crosby, the Sedins, Pronger, Doughty, Thomas and all of the other players at least once a year.

But down between the lines, and in further support of "...increasing the game’s marketability..." is the five weeks at the end of the schedule called “Division Triples.” In four of those five weeks, teams would play a home-away-home, three-game, uninterrupted mini-series against a division rival. You then get your ‘Hated Red Wings’ week for Blackhawk fans, or your ‘Visser la Bruins’ week for a Habs passionné with all of the media-supported and driven passion that entails. It brings a playoff-like, pre-playoffs atmosphere to every barn in the League before season end. The fifth week is to round out the rest of the schedule and is required because of the odd number of division teams.

Why the three-game mini-series? What’s the ‘So what?’ in that. Here’s the numbers. Through contests ending 11 February of the current season, 381 of 827 / 46.1% of all games played have ended in a one goal deficit. For all Stanley Cup playoff games since the Lockout, 4% more games than that did likewise. But specifically in what On Goal Analysis has called the Black and Blue Schedule, for 18 of 30 back-to-back, uninterrupted pairs of games played this season, 10 of 18 / 55.5 % of those pairs were one-goalers. Other key stats include the facts that 44.4% of those B&B games have seen the second game’s winner not the same as the first games’ victor and 50% of second games displayed an increase in PIMs. These statistical rationalizations would be natural fuel for the personal and media-driven, emotional reactions that would occur during such events as a three-game Battle of Alberta.

Bring us the Division Triples!

Oh, and don’t wait weeks for the Annual Awards Show and Entry Draft after the Stanley Cup finals either. A couple nights after the Stanley Cup Finals are complete, BAM! have the Annual Awards Show. Don’t wait – go while the season is fresh in everyone’s mind. And then hold the Entry Draft, the single event that gives each and every team (and drafted player) a glimpse at, and hope for, the future, on its heels. THAT puts the bow on top of the whole package that is an NHL year.

You Said ‘Vision’…

That term implies seeing something else down the road. We say for that ‘next five years,’ the NHL can truly test the bounds of practicality in expanding one day to Europe. For an investment in team and program support, the NHL can foster a regular, pre-season playing regimen with teams in Ireland, England, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Germany, Switzerland, The Czech Republic, Slovakia and Russia. Ten teams conducting their pre-season in those countries with exhibition games between local, professional or all-star clubs and other NHL teams in Europe would give a September NHL presence in ‘The Old Country.’ It would also give teams a taste of international play that helps everyone’s psychological preparations for the Olympics.

If it is attempted, a diving board for potentially expanding the NHL by 10 European teams at some point will be put over the pool, allowing the League to determine when, where, and even if a splash will be heard. But in terms of a vision, options are opened to grow the game beyond even North America.

Summary

In terms of a vision, the NHL should grow the game to increase its marketability against other professional sports. Screw football – you can like it, but you’re not going to love it like you will love hockey. That should be the NHL’s mindset.

Increase the length of the season to decrease the number of games played weekly allowing more recovery time for players and a more manageable pace for hockey operations and logistics.

Give us the Division Triples because four home-away-home weekly series in the last five weeks of the season will increase fan anticipation and drama to a crescendo each week, bring fans out of their seats for the greater PIM-driven passions that ensue, keep them on the edge of their seats as more than half of the games end with a one goal deficit, and bring everyone to a lather for the Stanley Cup finals.

And exploit the pre-season to test the viability of expansion into Europe. Make it at least a three-year experiment so all 30 NHL teams would have the opportunity to play in Europe over a weeklong (+), pre-season timeframe – expansion of the NHL eastward would require it in the normal course of a season. Or find out it is not viable and pour all of your efforts entirely into North America expansion.

It’s a vision. That’s our $.02 free of charge.

Why is the Best NHL Referee "None"? (Part 2 of 2)

2011-02-12T20:53:00.003-06:00

In Part One, we addressed the possible causes behind the current sorry state of NHL officiating. Today, we'll look at five solutions/improvements.

5. A Third Referee

Even if I'm completely wrong and NHL officials are 100% bias-free, the fact remains that the boys in stripes either miss calls or make the wrong call with alarming frequency. The game of hockey moves so fast that it seems even two referees can't keep up. A third referee on the ice would only get in the way, causing even more problems. On the other hand, a third referee in the press box (or perhaps in Pierre McGuire's spot between the benches), with two-way radio communication to the on-ice officials and access to the video feed, could catch many of those missed calls and utilize the video feed to help the on-ice officials make the right call.

How would it work? When the third referee sees an infraction which both of the on-ice referees failed to call, he keys his mic and says, for example, "Hooking, 29, white". The on-ice refs' arm goes up, whistle blows, and #29 in white goes to the box. Likewise, after the whistle blows, the third ref can review the video to ensure the correct call is made (as in Rick Nash's "no goal" against Detroit). To keep controversy to a minimum, the off-ice ref would have to have the authority to overrule his on-ice counterparts.

4. Coach's Challenge

Dale Tallon was right: NHL coaches should be able, on a limited basis, to challenge certain calls. How limited? Coaches should be allowed up to three challenges per game. If the first challenge fails, the challenging team is charged with a timeout. If the second challenge fails, a two-minute minor for Delay of Game is assessed. If the third challenge fails, a double minor is assessed. If the challenges are successful, no penalties are assessed. Ideally, though, the introduction of a third referee (as above) would make the Coach's Challenge unnecessary. That's predicated on the competence of the third referee, however.

3. Kill the "Intent to Blow" Rule

One of the most controversial rules in the NHL is the so-called "Intent to Blow" rule. In a nutshell, it means that the play is considered dead as soon as the referee decides to make a call (blow his whistle), as opposed to when the whistle is actually blown. In other words, play is stopped by the referee's intent, rather than his action. Many a goalmouth scrum has resulted in a good goal being waived off because of this awful rule. It's demise is long overdue.

2. Publicized Fines and Suspensions for On-ice Officials

When players and coaches are fined or suspended, those penalties are public record. Are NHL officials ever fined? Are they ever suspended? What sort of disciplinary measures are referees and linesmen subject to...if any? Who knows? On-ice officials would receive greater respect from fans, players and coaches if only we could see proof that they're subject to some form of discipline.

Referees are, and should be, held to a higher standard. Far too many nights, we watch them fail to meet that standard, seemingly without consequence. The net result is that referees are generally held in low regard. "Wow - wish I could do a lousy job every night, and get rewarded with a trip to the Stanley Cup Playoffs at the end of the year" is a common refrain. Publicizing penalties assessed to on-ice officials would be one way to let the public know the NHL is truly interested in producing the best possible product.

1. Actively Recruit On- and Off-ice Officials from Non-Traditional Markets

Bias among NHL officials is real. Sure, we all want to pretend that every NHL official treats the Atlanta Thrashers with the same respect and attention as they do the Montreal Canadiens, but that's simply not the case. As we've already seen this year, a blown call in a Thrashers-Panthers game won't receive the same level of scrutiny as it would in, say, a Maple Leafs-Canadiens game. In the Leafs-Habs game, many more people are watching; thus, the game is considered "more important". What NHL officials fail to understand is this: While there aren't as many fans of the Panthers, those who do care, care deeply. By the same token, the objective in non-traditional markets is to grow the game. It's difficult to turn casual fans into fanatics when they see the home team screwed repeatedly by capricious and disinterested officiating.

The NHL needs to actively recruit on- and off-ice officials from the non-traditional markets. I'm not suggesting, for example, the Dallas Stars should have a Dallas-born-and-bred referee for every home game; what I'm saying is that a referee from any non-traditional market would carry with him a greater level of respect for the Dallases, Phoenixes and Floridas of the world. In the end, the Atlanta-Florida game would be officiated with the same level of attention to detail as Toronto-Montreal. Bias is mitigated, controversy subsides, and non-trads succeed or fail on their own merits, rather than at the hands of an inattentive referee.

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

Why is the Best NHL Referee "None"? (part 1 of 2)

2011-02-10T17:32:00.004-06:00

If it’s a day ending in “y”, it must be time to discuss the sorry state of NHL officiating. Sadly/Unfortunately/Infuriatingly (take your pick), it seems there’s much more to complain about this season than in any other post-Lockout campaign. In a recent survey of the NHLPA, “none” was the most popular answer to the question, “Who is the best NHL referee?” There’s a reason for that.

Today, in Part One of this post, we'll identify the problem(s). Because it's just plain bad policy to gripe without also offering solutions, Part Two will deliver five ways in which to improve NHL officiating. For the sake of brevity, we will only discuss the bad on-ice calls, and save the NHL's mercurial suspension "policy" for another time. With that, let the dissection begin! Here’s a sampling of what we’ve been subjected to this season:

Friday, 4 FEB 2011 – Columbus @ Detroit: Henrik Zetterberg gets tangled up with goalie/teammate Jimmy Howard, allowing Columbus’ Rick Nash to shoot the puck into an open net. Referee Francois St. Laurent signals “no goal” and sends Derick Brassard to the sin bin for goalie interference.

Wednesday, 2 FEB 2011 – Detroit @ Ottawa: Chris Neil stuffs the puck into the Detroit net during a scrum in the crease, then inadvertently pulls the puck back out of the net. Puck ends up underneath Jimmy Howard. After a War Room review, it’s “no goal”, because “…the puck was under the goalie, who was then pushed into the net.” Replays clearly showed this was not the case. Neil’s goal would’ve tied the game at 6 with just under eight minutes remaining in the 3rd; instead, Detroit adds an empty-netter to win, 7-5.

Wednesday, 5 JAN 2011 – Atlanta @ Florida: With Atlanta leading, 3-2, late in the 3rd, Florida Captain Bryan McCabe scores the tying goal…or not: Somehow, both the on-ice officials and the War Room missed Atlanta goalie Ondrej Pavelec fishing the puck out of the back of the net after the whistle. Atlanta wins, 3-2.

Tuesday, 28 DEC 2010 – Boston @ Tampa Bay: Game tied, 3-3, late in the 3rd, when Steven Stamkos is sent to the box for “Boarding” – in this case, a clean, shoulder-on-shoulder hit. Boston scores on the ensuing PP, wins 4-3.

Tuesday, 26 OCT 2010 – Florida @ Toronto: At 11:02 of the 3rd period, with the score tied at 1, Colton Orr flattens Panther goalie Scott Clemmensen. Tim Brent sends the puck toward the now-empty net, and it deflects off Orr and in. Former NHL Director of Officiating Stephen Walkom says it’s a “good goal”, Leafs go on to win, 3-1.

Sunday, 10 OCT 2010 – Florida @ Edmonton: Florida trails, 2-0, early in the 2nd period, when Marty Reasoner scores for Florida to make it 2-1. 1:09 later, Oiler Shawn Horcoff kicks the puck past Tomas Vokoun. The War Room says “good goal” after a lengthy review, Edmonton goes on to win, 3-2. Horcoff’s “goal” is the game-winner.

Anyone notice a pattern here? Before we get to that, Dirk Hoag at On The Forecheck had a very interesting post last week regarding post-Lockout suspensions, which asks the question, “Do the NHL’s Original Six franchises receive special treatment?” Again, we aren’t discussing suspensions today, but Hoag’s post caused the proverbial light bulb to come on over my head. What do I mean? Well, about that pattern…

In five of the six examples above, the beneficiary of the bad call was either an Original Six or a Canadian club. Likewise, in five of six examples, the party which was injured by the bad call was a non-traditional market club. This, combined with Hoag’s post, raised a question: In the eyes of NHL officials, is there a distinct hierarchy of teams? If so, it probably looks something like this:

1. Original Six clubs
2. Non-Original Six Canadian clubs
3. “Traditional Market” American clubs (i.e., Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Buffalo, etc)
4. “Non-Traditional Market” clubs (Phoenix, Columbus, Florida, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Nashville, Dallas, Los Angeles, Anaheim, San Jose)

Am I suggesting NHL officials are biased? Absolutely. It’s common knowledge around the league that rookies – both players and coaches – have to “pay their dues” before referees will give them the same treatment veterans receive. If refs are biased against rookies, why wouldn’t they be biased against non-traditional market teams? After all, they’re only human, and overwhelmingly Canadian:

On the NHLOA website, the list of 39 referees includes 1 Swede, 6 Americans and 32 Canadians (note: four referees have no birthplace listed, but three of them have distinctly French-Canadian names, so we’ll call them all Canadian). Of 33 linesmen on the site, 1 has no birthplace listed (I’ve requested a copy of his birth certificate from Hawaii), 8 are American and 24 are Canadian.

Why does nationality matter? Because the overwhelming majority of Canadian hockey fans are offended by the very idea of NHL clubs in non-traditional markets, just as American baseball fanatics are still upset over the Toronto Blue Jays’ World Series wins in 1992 and 1993. While I’m not suggesting Canadian-born NHL referees and the War Room staff in Toronto are actively conspiring to keep the “non-trads” down, I think it’s safe to say their feelings toward those clubs mirror those of Canadian hockey fans, ranging from “barely concealed hostility” through “general contempt” to “It’s Florida/Atlanta/Phoenix/et al; who really cares?” How else can some of these calls/non-calls be explained? Put another way, why aren’t the Torontos of the world victimized by bad calls as often as the Floridas?

Taking it a step further, only two of the American NHL referees were born outside of traditional hockey markets: Dennis LaRue (Savannah, GA) and Brad Meier (Dayton, OH). Among American linesmen, only one doesn’t come from a traditional hockey area (Bryan Pancich, the pride of Great Falls, MT). American hockey fans in traditional markets are largely guilty of the same biases as their Canadian counterparts.

Bias aside, NHL officiating has never been more than "adequate", and this season, is much closer to "putrid". A combination of inexperienced referees (relative to past seasons) and increased game speed are partly to blame. What can be done about it? Tune in tomorrow for Part Two…

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

Your Team At The 50’s Continued: ‘Out West…’

2011-02-08T12:03:00.002-06:00

Yesterday, On Goal Analysis posted its Game 50 (G50) blog about the Western Conference teams and their projections on into the playoffs. Today we look at the Western Conference…

The West is tight and therefore, many folks will tell you it is too difficult to predict. We hope to shed some better light on these 15 teams than throwing or hands up and telling you to pick ‘em.

Our recipe contains the same three ingredients as yesterday’s main course: an accounting of your team’s Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC); their projected finish in terms of Conference position and team points; and the likelihood of a surge or ebb in team play heading to G60…

The Western Conference

Anaheim Ducks. As of their G54, ANA is currently playing In The Curve, or just about average against the PQC. This is off of the back of a decent surge executed despite an injured Ryan Getzlaf. Their current PQC has only two better since the Lockout at G50: 2006/7 when they won The Cup and 2007/8. Their current projected points/finish in the West is 96 points/6th place. ANA’s propensity is to have a bit of an ebb going into G60, but their strong play indicates otherwise will occur – look for continued PQC improvement over the rest of the furlong.

Calgary Flames. CGY was the second and last Western team to be called at Tee Time back G29/9 December. They have since surged to a 15-6-5 record and began this morning as the West’s 8th seed. Projected points/finish in the West at G55 is 92 points/9th place. And while they are currently on a roll, they are due for a dip in their PQC, especially when you consider three of their next five games include contests against ANA, VAN and DAL.

Chicago Blackhawks. CHI is currently playing In The Curve and shows distinct signs they are not last year’s squad. As they hit the 50-game mark, their PQC was their lowest in the last two seasons and quite a bit off of last years’ pace. Their current projected points/finish in the West at G53 is 91 points/10th place. They are not likely to be called Chasing Stanley by G60 and odds are 2:1 their PQC ebbs a bit by G60. They need to dig in to return to the playoffs this year.

Colorado Avalanche. COL is also currently playing In The Curve right on par with CHI at G50. At that mark, their PQC was at its lowest, make-the-playoffs-season point tied with 2007/8. Their current projected points/finish in the West at G53 is 88 points/13th place. At best they will only remain In The Curve at G60 with odds at 5:3 COL will take a dip in their PQC this 10-game stretch. This does not bode well for playoff entry this season if the trend continues.

Columbus Blue Jackets. CBJ was called Chasing Stanley at G20/on 24 November. Ever since then, they have been attempting to force OGA to make a Shot Off The Post (SotP) call stating that we were incorrect in our first prediction. Based on current play, they are off their 2008/9 playoff entry pace by a notch. Their current projected points/finish in the West at G52 is 89 points/12th place. While odds are 5:1 they will see a continued PQC skid, they are showing some promise after a big win over DET and a one-goaler over EDM.

Dallas Stars. DAL was called Chasing Stanley for the first time in three seasons at G30/13 December. Despite a 1-5 record in their last six games, they remain high on the food chain in the Conference. Projected points/finish in the West at Game 53 is 101 points/3rd place behind VAN and DET. Odds are a bit better than 2:1 of them decreasing their PQC by G60, but they should be a solid lock for a Playoff seed.

Detroit Red Wings. DET was called Chasing Stanley at G20/26 November. Their PQC is only their fourth best in the six years since the Lockout, but at G50 was higher than all but PHI and VAN League-wide. Projected points/finish in the West at Game 53 is 108 points/2nd place behind VAN. Based on current play, expect a slight uptick in their PQC by G60. This team is slowing down, but they ain’t stopped yet as OGA calls them a Playoff ‘lock’ for 2011.

Edmonton Oilers. EDM, in an acknowledged rebuilding season, was predictably called at Tee Time at G20/23 November. Their G50 PQC is worse than every year except 2008/9. Projected points/finish in the West at Game 53 is 61 points/15th place and 30th in the League. It is even money their PQC continues to ebb by G60, but it is more likely they will skid some more. Still, the speedy squad is exciting to watch on many nights.

Los Angeles Kings. The LAK were called Chasing Stanley at G20/22 November. Their G50 PQC is not as kind, sitting at only its third best since the Lockout. Projected points/finish in the West at Game 53 is 96 points/5th place, but they must get their groove on for longer winning stretches. After three straight losing furlongs, expect the Kings to pick up the pace with a PQC gaining stretch by G60.

Minnesota Wild. A pleasant surprise in the State of Hockey this season, MIN has been playing strongly In The Curve and flirting with an opportunity to reach Chasing Stanley status over the last 20 games. Their G50 PQC is tied with their best in 2007/8, the last time they entered the Playoffs. Projected points/finish in the West at Game 52 is 96 points/4th place in the West. Expect the Wild to remain In The Curve by G60 due to a remaining furlong schedule of 8 games in 13 nights with two back-to-back pairs, but keep an eye on this squad as the Playoffs loom.

Nashville Predators. It cannot be overstated that NSH is a blue collar, hardworking team. They were called Chasing Stanley at G30/15 December, but were sporting only their fourth best, post-Lockout PQC at G50. With a bit of a streaky season, at G54 their projected points/finish in the West is 95 points/8th place. Odds are 4:3 they will drop off on the PQC by G60 but the schedule pushing out to there is favorable with recovery time between every game. If anyone can beat the odds, it is the Predators.

Phoenix Coyotes. Not last year’s team, this PHX has been playing only In The Curve all season. Their G50 PQC is second best since the Lockout, but that is also behind last years’ similar marker where they experienced a slight dip in play enroute to the Playoffs. Projected points/finish in the West at Game 55 is 90 points/11th place in West. Look for a PQC uptick in this team leading into G60, but in reality, they need to play 10% better on through to the playoffs to secure a seed.

San Jose Sharks. One of only three teams to make the Playoffs every year since the Lockout, SJS has struggled this season sitting at only In The Curve. Their G50 PQC is second worst in six years behind 2005/6. That said, projected points/finish in the West at Game 53 is 95+ points/7th place in West. They have enjoyed a 7-0-1 streak of late which they need to continue in order to push their way up to a Chasing Stanley call. Expect the Sharks’ PQC to grow heading toward G60.

St. Louis Blues. STL was called Chasing Stanley on a strong showing out of the gate at G10/4 November. They carried that momentum on through G20 and then began a skid. Their G50 PQC is only as good as 2009/10 when they failed to make the playoffs. Projected points/finish in the West at Game 51 is 85 points/14th place in the West. They need a stretch like their first 20 games to right the ship or they are looking at joining CBJ as a potential SotP this season.

Vancouver Canucks. Tops in the League, VAN is hot, hot, hot this season. They have been Chasing Stanley since G30/18 December and have only lost two games in regulation since then. They join DAL and DET as a solid playoff contender with the second highest margin of PQC ‘lock’ is in the League this season. Their G50 PQC is their best since the Lockout by several notches. Projected points/finish in the West at Game 54 is 115 points/1st place in West and the League. This team has depth in its favor, so expect a continued PQC rise heading toward G60.

Summary

So the Western Conference is likely to have seven teams increase their PQC while eight drop off, a prediction a bit better than the Eastern Conference and in line with this seasons’ performances. We are getting to crunch time now as things are most set in terms of the PQC by G60. Let’s see where the competition and excitement take us going forward…

Take me to On Goal Analysis

Your Team At The 50’s

2011-02-07T20:22:00.002-06:00

At On Goal Analysis, we have you covered as your favorite team has hit or just passed the 50-game mark this season.

We give you three things of interest in this blog. First is an accounting of your team’s Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) which gives you the earliest possible call of IN (Chasing Stanley) or OUT (Tee Time) of the 2011 Playoffs. We also calculate their projected finish in terms of Conference position and team points. And finally, we tell you about the likelihood of a surge or ebb in team play heading to Game 60 (G60).

Without further ado, we now hit the Eastern Conference followed by the Western in alphabetical order.

The Eastern Conference

Atlanta Thrashers. ATL currently is playing In The Curve, or just about average against the PQC. The only year better, PQC-wise, was 2006/7. But having just hit the 55-game mark, they need W’s in the last half of this 10-game stretch or they may meet requirements for Tee Time. Their current projected points/finish in the East is 86 points/10th place. And in the next 10-game stretch, they are most likely to have another period of a diminishing PQC against the Curve which may just see them find themselves out of playoff contention.

Boston Bruins. BOS has been Chasing Stanley since G20/24 November. They have had a few minor dips in their PQC, but currently are playing a notch better than any season except their monstrous 2008/9 year. Projected points/finish in the East at G53 is 101 points/3rd place. Note they bounce back and forth with Montreal between 3rd or 5th/6th place with PIT and/or WSH in the middle and based on who won or lost each night. You might see them increase their PQC again between G50 and G60, but it would be a first against their post-lockout averages to have a third PQC-gaining furlong in a row.

Buffalo Sabres. BUF was currently playing In The Curve. But as they hit the 50-game mark, they barely missed a PQC call of Tee Time with their worst numbers since the Lockout at that point in the season. Their current projected points/finish in the East at G51 is 88 points/9th place. Their current winning percentages would see them hit G60 at Dusting Off Clubs, just short of elimination, but a hotter-than-average winning streak could just as easily see them ushered into 8th place. They are most likely, however, to ebb this 10-game stretch and either rest just shy of, or at, Tee Time.

Carolina Hurricanes. CAR was also currently playing In The Curve. Based on current hot-and-cold play, they are most likely to remain In The Curve at G60. At G50, their PQC was tied with that of the 2006/7 season, second only to their Stanley Cup winning year. Their current projected points/finish in the East at G53 is 91 points/8th place. CAR needs another 6-0-2 run like they had from 28 DEC to 11 JAN, but are likely to either post a very modest PQC gain, or ebb lower in PQC difference from the median.

Florida Panthers. FLA was called at Tee Time at G40/on 8 JAN. Based on current play, they are on par with last season and just barely better than 2005/6 through 2007/8. Their current projected points/finish in the East at G52 is 83 points/11th place. Truly, this is a rebuilding year for Dale Tallon and the Cats.

Montreal Canadiens. MTL was OGA’s first Chasing Stanley call of the season at G10/29 October. After a PQC slide from G31-G40, they are again on the rise, a normal slippage occurrence each year for this team. Projected points/finish in the East at Game 54 is 99 points/6th place behind BOS, PIT and WSH. (Remember the yo-yo with BOS between 3rd and 5th place here.) There is a 50/50 chance of Les Habs either increasing or decreasing their PQC, so anything – such as injuries – could adversely affect the team enroute to G60.

New Jersey Devils. NJD was given a qualified PQC call of Dusting Off Clubs – just short of elimination from the 2011 Playoffs – at G10/27 October based on their past ability to play The Great Game. By G20, there was no denying they were at Tee Time and will remain so going onwards to G60 despite their recent surge. Projected points/finish in the East at Game 53 is 67 points/13th place. The Devils are a ‘solid’ OUT when it comes to the nature of NHL play and making the playoffs this season.

New York Islanders. NYI had a dismal G11-G20 stretch and were called at Tee Time for G20/21 November. Their G50 PQC is worse than every year except 2008/9. Projected points/finish in the East at Game 52 is 66 points/14th place and behind NJD. Flip a coin as to whether or not they improve their PQC in the G51-G60 spread, but improving would mean teams are coming into the building thinking they are playing an easy mark. NYI, as with NJD, is a solid Tee Time this season.

New York Rangers. At G50, the NYR hit their second straight 10-game stretch with a Sharpening Skates – just short of IN the 2011 Playoffs – ranking. That G50 PQC is eclipsed by the 2005/6 and 2008/9 seasons, but markedly better than the two seasons in between when they also made the playoffs. Projected points/finish in the East at Game 55 is 95 points/7th place. After four straight PQC-gaining furlongs, expect the Rangers to fall off a bit and land at In The Curve by G60.

Ottawa Senators. OTT was called at Tee Time at G30/9 December. Their G50 PQC is tied with 2008/9 as their worst G50 PQC since the Lockout. Projected points/finish in the East at Game 53 is 62 points/and last place in the East. Expect OTT to slide on their PQC again by G60 – they have already joined NYI and NJD as a solid Tee Time this season.

Philadelphia Flyers. PHI was OGA’s fifth Chasing Stanley call of the season at G18/15 November. Fast forward and their G50 PQC is the highest they have experienced since the Lockout. Projected points/finish in the East at Game 53 is 114 points/1st place in East and pushing VAN for 1st overall in the NHL. They have increasing PQCs every 10-game furlong since G40 of last season. Expect the trend to continue – this team is the most solid lock for the 2011 Playoffs of any team in the League.

Pittsburgh Penguins. PIT has been Chasing Stanley since G28/4 December. Since G40, their PQC has been their highest since the Lockout, to include where they will be at G55. Projected points/finish in the East at Game 54 is 110 points/4th place in East. While there is a 50/50 chance of their PQC increasing above the In The Curve mark by G60, it is practically impossible to not predict a dip with the loss of their top two players through at least early March for Crosby and until next season for Malkin. PIT GM Shero needs to pull the trigger on a top three forward to ensure their Playoff future, but their current level of play could drop off by almost 10% and they are likely to still squeak in to the Playoffs.

Tampa Bay Lightning. The TBL are a legitimate Chasing Stanley team this season. A solid ‘lock’ for the playoffs unless the wheels fall off the cart, the only question is how deep into the post-season they will go. They have been Chasing Stanley since G10/20 October. They have also consistently been at their highest post-Lockout PQC rankings since G35 this season. Projected points/finish in the East at Game 54 is 110 points/2nd place in East. Expect the Lightning’s steadily rising PQC trend to continue through G60.

Toronto Maple Leafs. TOR was called at Tee Time at G36/30 December. Their G50 PQC is only better than in 2009/10. Projected points/finish in the East at Game 52 is 75 points/12th place in the East, an improvement from last season of only one point, but three places in the standings. TOR will likely continue their steady PQC slide by G60.

Washington Capitals. Make no mistake, WSH is having its issues in the W column this season. That said, they have been Chasing Stanley since G17/13 November. A solid playoff contender, their margin of ‘lock’ is less than in the previous two seasons. Their G50 PQC is lower than at any time since the 2007/8 season at the same point. Projected points/finish in the East at Game 54 is 100 points/5th place in East. The Caps have been surging since their pre-Winter Classic slump, and expect that trend to continue going onward to G60.

Summary

So the Eastern Conference is likely to have three teams increase their PQC, eight drop, and four either remain the same or go either way. That should point to increases occurring across the Western conference one would think. But such simple conclusions are not always correct in PQC-land.

Come back to the OGA blogs later for the rundown on the hard-to-call Western Conference to be posted at a later date.

If I Was Running A Team

2011-01-24T14:54:00.005-06:00

I am military. And being so, I tend to get to the heart of the matter. I zero in on the mission and attack it with vigor. So if I was working for an NHL team, I would do a few things some might call cold-hearted or calculated. I prefer to call it mission-focused.

My mission, in running a team, would be to build a Stanley Cup winning franchise with a fan base that cannot buy enough tickets to see the team in action.

My intent would be to focus on building the kind of fans that cannot help but come to the game even when the team is not blowing out the opposition. And I would build this team through the local population base of children.

The ‘Evil’ Plan

Let’s say it how it really is. While most of us would like to say our kids go where we take them, more often in pure statistical terms, families are taken where their children’s activities go. So bring the children to the rink, and you have a whole family in the seats. That’s 3.14 family members in the U.S. and about three in Canada. In effect, if the child comes to the game, you sell 2-3 tickets.

So the Evil Plan – we’ll call it the ‘EP’ – is to integrate children into the operation as much as is possible. Here is my coup de grace example:

Kidterns. I would invite the local school board Presidents to the Arena for lunch and sit down to work out the EP. It would be the following:

1. Take essays and/or video tapes from students age 12-16.

2. Find the best essays/videos and choose the right children to represent the team

3. Work out class credit with the school boards for the children to miss a week of school to participate in Kidtern camp with no grade repercussions in exchange for class/school reports on their experience (yes, to excite even MORE kids about hockey)

4. Conduct Kidtern camp one week when the team is on the road but within a couple weeks of the Christmas/Boxing Day Holidays

5. Have three children work with trainers on Hockey equipment; three children work ticket sales; two children work game-time, on-the-jumbotron promotions; 10 children work pre-game promotions/customer assistance; five children work with major staff assistants; and one each boy and girl with the team’s media for game-time presentations – the goal is to spread the 25 children around as many school districts as possible simultaneously

6. Bring them to Kidtern Camp and then have them work for a week with the team over the holidays – the focus would be all for the kids to go all out for one home game (the kids also get a sit-down lunch with the team after a morning skate somewhere in there so their report can say ‘…I lunched with Ovechkin….’)

7. Sell the parents up to six each 50% off tickets to come and see their children at work with the team on the prime home game night – ensure to have in-arena cameras show either live, or run recorded video clips of the kids during game breaks/in-between periods

So you would have three kids helping to prepare equipment and set up the room before the game and in the runway to assist the trainers as the game is ongoing. (Among ‘normal’ duties, have them tape one of the rookie’s sticks.)

Three children would work right alongside the agents on the phones after training and in the ticket office for game time. (Have them call and melt the big corporations to sell corporate boxes though the sheer power of a child’s enthusiasm.)

Two children would work as assistants with the jumbotron promotion/contest crew – if they are particularly able, they might own the mic to run one contest. (Smiles fill the building and at least two sets of parents holler ‘…That’s MY kid!..”.)

Ten youngsters would assist with promotional hand outs and giveaways throughout the game. (Have them talk people into parting with their money on a great idea at the fan store or concession stand.)

Five sharp kiddos would be assistants to the managements’ personal assistants to learn how that critical mission is conducted.

And the most gregarious young man and woman would be trained to be a broadcast/interview team. It’s not that they can take Heidi Androl’s place. It’s that they have a unique interpretation at that young age we all have forgotten to express and can’t help but laugh at when kids ‘say the darndest things.’ They get one jumbotron interview and, if it can be done, one short segment on air. (Every kid wants in the Kidtern program now…)

At the very end, give them all team shirts, signed pucks and hats, and special coupons for discounted tickets for the rest of the season as long as tickets are available. You know, to increase the opportunity to come out to games.

And send a letter to the very best of the Kidterns to return for one, early-round Playoff game encore as a special recognition of a job well done. Maintain a listing of Kidtern ‘graduates’ for consideration as they become young adults and may want to apply for a position with the team.

Some Other Ideas To Increase The Butt-To-Seat Ratio

I have three more.

Once more with the children… For the top 40 kiddos not chosen for the Kidtern program, at 10 kids per special day, they join the Kidterns for a skate with the team. So four times during the year, the team donates an hour of ice time and brings the 25 Kidterns and 10 runners-up onto the ice with the players. All the while, proud/jealous parents are staring through the glass at their lucky progeny. (Pass them coupons for special discount rates on tickets as they watch.)

The first in-game special I call ‘How Suite It Is.’ For 10 games during the season, after the first period, any unsold/unoccupied suites become the privilege of some lower-bowl season ticket holders. Go to the appropriate sections a few minutes before the end of the 1st Period and round up the lucky ticket holders. And make a big deal of it as you lead them away to their new, plush seats.

Then there is ‘Come On Down.’ Tickets in the lower bowl are freakin’ expensive. Some more than others. So for the same 10 games as ‘How Suite It Is,’ during the 3rd Period, random, upper bowl rows/sections are taken down to fill in unoccupied, lower bowl seats. The wealth is shared in an awesome way all upper deck fans have thought and wished for as they looked down and cursed the un-attending below them.

Summary

So the EP is simple. Get the paying parents to the rink through their children just like the way to a man’s heart is through his stomach. Expose lots of kids to something special – some in person and others vicariously as they listen to the school report from the lucky, chosen. And share the wealth.

Fill the seats. By a team, staff and support. Build a sense of community. And win The Cup.

What would YOU do if you were the boss?

OGA Notes - 23 January

2011-01-23T09:50:00.002-06:00

The OGA crew has been really busy all season, so you have seen us mostly on our web site at ongoalanalysis.com and heard us on JabberHockey. But it doesn't mean we still are not researching the NHL as a whole to find the essence of the Win and how it relates to who is and is not in the Playoffs as far out from the mathematical call as possible.

Or are we? In the last few days, we re-defined the mathematical call. We have determined how to account for all teams total points through our Playoff Point Predictor (P3). On display at our home page is a listing of the Top 8 teams in each conference, their projected, total points and their last position from the night before, all right under our Hot Picture of the night. Add the P3 to the Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC), and you get a highly accurate prognostication of who will be playing on into late April this season. And, we might add, GAMES before it is mathematically settled.

We have also been following something called the Black And Blue Schedule all season long. The premise is for the 30 times the NHL scheduled two teams to play back-to-back/home-and-away this season, the second game is likely to be won by the team who lost the opener, in OT or a SO and with more total PIMs. In effect, the pair of game, uninterrupted by other opponents, potentially has that same aire of competition as a playoff game.

While overall this notion is only correct a bit over one-third of the time (.373), it is interesting to note a few things here:

1. Most correct in the prediction is the increase in PIMs in contest #2 where that prediction has been correct eight of 17 times (.471).

2. Second most accurate has been that the opposite team wins in Game 2 (seven-of-17 for .412).

3. Lastly is the OT/SO percentage with only four-of-17/.235 games being correct with the overall premise. While the percentage of OT/SO games is down a bit this year, it's only by an estimated 13 games from last season. So this category is not as good a call as the original theory might have suggested.

We DID find an interesting off-shoot of the theory we did not initially expect, however. Of the 17 games to date, 10 (.588) have ended in a one-goal decision. The current NHL average is approximately 32%. So almost double the Black And Blue Schedule games end with a one goal difference than the overall NHL average.

Just a couple of notes this morning from On Goal Analysis for your consideration.

Take me to On Goal Analysis

December 23rd's In The NHL

2010-12-23T12:18:00.001-06:00

The NHL has a penchant for the Christmas Eve, Eve (CE2) schedule. Tonight for example, there are 13 games/26 teams on the ice for your pre-Christmas viewing pleasure. But how well have teams fared since the Lockout when they can smell the Christmas turkey in the oven?

The Eastern Conference on 23 December

Where an OTL/SOL counts as one-half of a Win, the Eastern Conference overall has a .524 winning percentage on 23 December. In order with percentages, they stack up like this:

WSH 1.0
ATL .800
PHI .750
BOS, OTT .600
CAR, NYI, PIT, TBL .500 (2-2)
BUF .500 (1-1-1)
FLA, NYR .375
MTL, NJD, TOR .250

Eastern teams on the road for CE2, however, stack up differently with an overall .516 winning percentage. Individually:

PHI, WSH 1.0 (2-0)
TBL 1.0 (1-0)
ATL .750
OTT .600
CAR, NJD .500 (1-1)
BUF .500 (1-1-1)
BOS .333
MTL .250
NYR, TOR .000 (0-1)
FLA .000 (0-1)
NYI, PIT No road games on 23 DEC through 2009/10 season

So the Eastern Conference is pretty consistent at a bit over .500 on CE2. The above would imply tonight that:

ATL has a better than average chance of beating BOS
WSH is likely to take down PIT
TBL can beat the NYR
NJD, notoriously bad on CE2, may win against NYI tonight for the coaching change intangible
If MTL smells the plane’s seat leather, they will lose to CAR
BUF has a decent chance of beating FLAAnd OTT might not beat NSH as they are .600, but have lost on the road the last two seasons

The Western Conference on 23 December

The Western Conference overall has fared a bit better than their Eastern Conference brothers at a .550 winning percentage for CE2. Western overall percentages are:

MIN 1.0
SJS .833
DAL .800
COL, NSH .750
STL .700
DET, PHX, CHI .625
CGY .600
LAK .333
EDM .250
VAN .167
ANA .000 (0-3)
CBJ .000 (0-5)

Western teams on the road for CE2, however, perform significantly worse on the road for CE2 when compared to their Eastern brethren with a combined .322 winning percentage. Individually, they are:

DAL 1.0
DET .750
NSH, STL .667
CGY .500
LAK .333
PHX .250
CHI, COL .000 (0-1)
CBJ, VAN .000 (0-2)
ANA, EDM .000 (0-3)
MIN, SJS No road games on 23 DEC through 2009/10 season

So the Western Conference overall is over .500 on CE2, but win less than one-third of the time on the road. So tonight’s possibilities include:

A virtual toss-up for VAN at CBJ
DET might have a slight advantage at STL
As we said above, NSH has a slight, potential edge over OTT
DAL should defeat CGY
COL will have a close, possible win over MIN
The LAK are the likely victor over EDM
And SJS gets the nod over visiting, Bryzgalovless PHX

Summary

So tonight, the West’s winning dominance over the East it is likely to continue with a NSH victory over OTT. All other games are intra-Conference, with the home team holding a slight statistical advantage and likely to take eight of 12 other contests.
Just some fun facts for tonight as we all remember going into the holiday season to give thanks for Hockey!

NHL Weekend Roadie: East Bound and Down Edition

2010-12-17T09:39:00.004-06:00

After a brief hiatus, the NHL Weekend Roadie is back...and this time, it's for real. This weekend, 2/3rds of the OGA Boys (The Colonel and Yours Truly), along with a herd of kids (Tex Jr. and The Colonel's Lieutenants) hit the road for some pre-Christmas Southeast Division action.

The itinerary:

NHL Week Eleven (Saturday, 18 DEC - Monday, 20 DEC)

Saturday, 18 DEC: New Jersey @ Atlanta - We'll be up at oh-dark-thirty, as we're driving from Pineville, LA to Atlanta for this game. The drive itself should take about eleven hours (including stops and the time change) and the puck drops at 7:00pm, so it's going to be a long day. Must.Get.To.Philips.Arena.Early. , as they're offering $1 hot dogs, pretzels and sodas from 6:00pm - puck drop. The question isn't, "What's for dinner?", it's "How many?" Oh, and there's apparently going to be an interesting hockey game, too, as the New Jersey Kovalchuks (who are sucking less of late) visit the New and Improved Atlanta Thrashawks. Look for Atlanta to show Kovy the error of his ways, while the Hundred-Million-Dollar Man tries to build on his recent two-goal outing.

Sunday, 19 DEC: Lake City, FL - This is a travel day for the OGA Boys. Before hitting the road, though, we first must make the pilgrimage to Mary Mac's Tea Room for some excellent Southern home cookin'. Tex Jr. and I have dined there in the past, and give it four thumbs up. After lunch, we'll waddle over to the World of Coca Cola, where we'll get hopped up on sugar and caffiene before rolling about five hours south to Lake City, FL, to crash for the night.

Monday, 20 DEC: Carolina @ Tampa Bay - From Lake City, Tampa is a quick three-hour drive. We'll get there early in the day, so as to sample the local eats and the Florida Aquarium. Need to get to the arena early for this one, too, as the first 5,000 peeps through the door get a Steve Stamkos bobblehead. I believe Homer Simpson said it best: WOO-HOO!!! The Hurricanes are riding a three-game win streak, while the Lightning have won their last two. They're division rivals. What's not to like about this game?

Tuesday, 21 DEC: Go Home - While we'd really like to head back up to Atlanta for the Blues - Thrashers game, familial obligations force us to turn west on I-10. It's probably for the best, as this will be Day Four of a Chevy Tahoe filled with five boys, ranging in age from 9-46 (average mental/emotional age of the group: 12). That's right: Five boys, one SUV, 1,912 miles in four days. This trip can be best described by a movie title: There Will Be Blood.

As is our M.O., The Colonel and I will be Tweeting along the way (@Pelican4 and @OGAs_BigTex, respectively). Follow along out of morbid curiousity, if nothing else.

I've got to finish packing and go pick Tex Jr. up from school, as we've got a six-hour drive to The Colonel's Hockeybunker ahead of us. Tex Jr. will hold my hat while I drive. This is Big Tex, East Bound and Down.

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

Dallas: This Season's Phoenix?

2010-12-14T16:06:00.004-06:00

(Image unashamedly stolen from Puck Daddy)

Going into the 2009-2010 NHL season, the Phoenix Coyotes were picked by most prognosticators to finish dead last in the Western Conference. Off-ice issues - namely, the never-ending ownership/relocation saga - were considered insurmountable distractions for the team. The only thing the Coyotes had to look forward to was a high first-round draft pick in June of 2010...or so virtually everyone thought.

A funny thing happened on the way to the 2010 NHL Entry Draft: Phoenix defied all expectations, posting a 50-25-7 record, good for fourth in the Western Conference. Though they bowed out in the Conference Quarter-Finals, the fact that they made it into the Stanley Cup Playoffs at all was remarkable.

Are the Dallas Stars the 2010-2011 version of the Coyotes? Similarities do exist:

The Stars are currently for sale by Tom Hicks' lenders (Phoenix is currently for sale by Gary Bettman).
They've missed the playoffs in each of the last two seasons (Phoenix missed the playoffs six consecutive seasons prior to last spring).
Preseason expectations for the Stars were very low (Ditto Phoenix last season).

Unlike the Coyotes, the Stars don't face the threat of relocation. These teams share one more commonality, however: Like last season's Coyotes, the Stars are going to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

As of Game 30, the Dallas Stars are Chasing Stanley, according to the On Goal Analysis Super-Lucky No MSG Added Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC). Last season, the PQC was correct for 90% of the NHL, and the Stars show no indication of falling into the other 10%.

Why the Stars are going to make the playoffs

As a wise man said back in September, the Stars needed to cut their Goals Against dramatically this season. Dallas' GAA for the 2009-2010 season was 2.98 (23rd in the NHL). Through Game 30 this season, the Stars' GAA is 2.67 (12th). Dallas is allowing virtually the same number of Shots on Goal this season (31.0) as last (31.2), so improved goaltending has been key. Kari Lehtonen has been solid, and backup Andrew Raycroft has been a pleasant surprise.

At the other end of the rink, the Stars are scoring only slightly less than last season (2.73 Goals/Game now vs. 2.80 G/Gm then), and the top line of Loui Eriksson-Brad Richards-James Neal (combined: 90GP, 37-53-90, +28)is one of the best trios in the NHL. Having a second legitimate scoring line is essential for success, and the Stars are extremely fortunate to have Brenden Morrow-Mike Ribiero-Jamie Benn (87GP, 21-37-58, -6) coming over the boards.

The Stars also benefit from good health (Lehtonen's current back problems notwithstanding), as ten skaters have played all thirty games, while five more have missed three or fewer contests. This could change in one shift on the ice, but for now, it's very good news for Dallas.

After a two-year drought, I'm looking forward to seeing Stanley Cup Playoff hockey in Dallas again. Come April, I guess I'll have to go to the bank (backyard) and make a withdrawal (dig up the mason jar marked, "Playoff Ticket Money"). I can't wait.

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

OGA’s 13 December Non-Traditional Team Report

2010-12-13T08:44:00.004-06:00

Weekly through the season as of games ending on Sunday night, On Goal Analysis will now produce a Non-Traditional Market Team Report so you, the fan, can understand how your favorite Non-Traditional team is playing against the rest of the League.

This week’s (first) report is for games ending Sunday, 12 December 2010.

The NHL as a Whole

At OGA, we measure teams’ play against the rest of the clubs in their Conference in order to determine their probability of making (Chasing Stanley) or missing (Tee Time) the 2011 Playoffs. Since the Lockout, our overall record is just shy of 90% in calling teams IN or OUT of the playoffs at an average of more than 90 days before the mathematical call.

The NHL as a whole is averaging 16.333 wins/about 33 points per team. That's an average winning percentage of .556.

At the same time the top eight teams in the East are averaging 19.25 wins/just over 38 points/a .631 winning percentage; the West is at a 17.5 wins/35 points/.625 winning percentage. (Note the West has played 10 less games than the East at this point.)

Projecting average points for current eighth place teams out to 82 games, the East and West would require right at 96 points for 8th place.

But It’s Not Quite That Simple

Teams, however, will not continue to play at the same pace they currently do. Every season, and just about every team, is full of peaks and valleys. So OGA produces it’s Playoff Power Projections (The P3) to attempt to determine as far out as possible how the NHL stacks up.

Since our emphasis is Non-Traditional Teams (CAR, FLA, ATL, TBL, CBJ, NSH, DAL, PHX, ANA, LAK and SJS) in this report and they cross Conference boundaries, we stack up their P3 numbers with all teams in the NHL as a whole.

As of Sunday, 12 December, The P3 looks like this (Non-Traditional Teams are in bold while other teams on eiter side of them in rank order display their P3 for reference):

DET (120.071)
PIT, PHI, BOS, and VAN
MTL (103.867)
DAL (101.79)
LAK (100.22)
WSH (99.938)
PHX and NSH (99.571)
TBL (98.4)
CBJ and STL (96.642)
SJS and COL (96.138)
ATL (95.667)
NYR (94.813)
CHI (92.581)
ANA (89.455)
MIN (84.828)
CAR (82)
BUF (76.533)
EDM (76.345)
FLA (76.143)
OTT (74.065)
CGY, TOR, NJD and NYI

So Non-Traditional Teams fall between #7 and #25 in rank order, or in the middle 2/3 of the NHL.

Drilling Down A Little Further

Here's some more specifics about our 11 Non-Traditional teams' current status:

DAL is #7 in The P3. They sit atop the Pacific Division and are currently in third place in current NHL standings. They also are not yet Chasing Stanley, but are knocking on the door with their best Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) ranking since the 2006/7 season.

The LAK are #8 behind DAL in The P3. They are currently last in the Pacific Division and sit in 10th place in the Western Conference standings, one scant win away from a Top Eight position. OGA called them Chasing Stanley at Game 19 (G19) on 21 November, and at only G27 right now, they have an opportunity to get to G30 higher in terms of PQC than any season since the Lockout at the same point in the season.

PHX and NSH follow WSH tied in The P3 at #10. For this pair, give the slight nod to PHX with 13 regulation wins to NSH’s 10. PHX currently sits in third place in the Pacific Division while NSH is the same in the Central, and they are sixth and seventh in Western Conference standings respectively. If PHX wins G29 and G30, they will eclipse their previous best at G30 since the Lockout. NSH closing out the G30 furlong with those same two wins will be at their best since 2006/7.

TBL is #12 in The P3. They are in second place in the Southeast and seventh in Eastern Conference standings. OGA called them Chasing Stanley at G10 on 29 October. They hit the G30 mark barely shy of their previous best PQC from 2005/6.

CBJ is #13 in terms of The P3. They are fourth in the Central Division/11th in the Western Conference standings fighting tie breakers with two other teams. OGA called them Chasing Stanley at G19 on 22 November. At only G28, they are tied with the 2009/10 version of the Blue Jackets for their best G30 start since the Stoppage.

SJS is #15 in The P3. They sit fourth in the Pacific Division and ninth in the Western Conference, tied with three other teams in tie-breakers for the final playoff position. They are off their normal mark in terms of play and will hit the G30 mark with a PQC that is only ahead of their 2005/6 season.

ATL’s P3 places them in the #17 position. They are third in the Southeast Division and eighth in the Eastern Conference with a bit of a lead over the ninth place holder. They hit the G30 mark tied with the 2009/10 version of the Thrashers for their best 30-game start since the Lockout.

ANA is #20 in The P3. Seemingly out of oblivion, they have risen to second in the Pacific Division behind a DAL tie-breaker and fourth in the Western Conference. Their play has been sporadic, and they actually hit G30 tied for their second worst start since Lockout.

CAR’s P3 rests at #22. They are fourth in the Southeast Division and ninth in the Eastern Conference. At G28, two wins to close out the G30 could place them in the best shape they have been in since 2007/8’s PQC.

And FLA is #25 in The P3. They are last in the Southeast Division and 12th in the Eastern Conference. They are pushing Tee Time, but have not yet made it to that point in their season. At G28 right now, closing out the G30 with two wins could have them barely behind their best start since the Lockout.

Rolling It Up

It is a combination of The P3 and the PQC that allows On Goal Analysis to predict as early as possible whether a team will be IN or OUT of the playoffs and their potential, final standings. While many would have you believe the Non-Traditional Teams are inferior to the rest, the 11 actually sit in the middle 2/3 of the League in terms of their 2010/11 potential with three teams OGA has called Chasing Stanley, or already poised to enter the 2011 Playoffs, and none of them have been eliminated from contention yet.

The Non-Traditional Market, which has spawned no less than four California, one Arizona and one Texas invitee to join the 2011 Team USA World Junior roster, is a force to be reckoned with.

NHL at the Quarter Pole(-ish): Who's In, Who's Out

2010-11-29T21:54:00.003-06:00

Now that the Detroit Red Wings have finally made it past the Game 20 mark AND we've finished all the Thanksgiving leftovers, it's time to look at the On Goal Analysis Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) again. Let's see which teams are now Chasing Stanley (IN the 2011 Stanley Cup Playoffs), which ones are at Tee Time (OUT of the playoffs), and which ones are neither here nor there.

Before we dive into all that, let us quickly recap OGA's calls at Game 10:

Chasing Stanley: Montreal, Tampa Bay and St. Louis.
Tee Time: None.
In The Curve: Everyone else.

Got all that? Good - let's move on to the State of the League at Game 20:

CHASING STANLEY

New additions to this semi-exclusive club are: Philadelphia (18 NOV), Washington (19 NOV), Los Angeles (22 NOV), Boston (24 NOV), Columbus (24 NOV) and Detroit (26 NOV).

Of these calls, Columbus was the biggest surprise, but made it in with solid goaltending/team defense and timely goal scoring from the bottom two lines. The Flyers were a bit of a surprise as well, if only because nobody (outside of Flyers' management) saw rookie goalie Sergei Bobrovsky coming. Goaltending is also the story in Boston, as Tim Thomas and Tuukka Rask look like the best tandem in recent memory. The Kings have a young and talented team with scoring depth. Detroit and Washington are, well, Detroit and Washington: Chock full o'talent and piling up the W's.

TEE TIME

At Game 20, these teams formally entered the battle for the top pick in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft: New Jersey (20 NOV), NY Islanders (21 NOV) and Edmonton (23 NOV).

The entire hockey world is still in shock at the Implosion in Newark. Much has been written about New Jersey's problems, and there's no need for another blow-by-blow account here. The Readers Digest Condensed Version is this: All-World goalie Marty Brodeur has a bum elbow, but was looking VERY human before his injury, top winger Zach Parise is out for a few months with a knee injury, and the incredibly talented Ilya Kovalchuk is skating like he's carrying $100mil (in small bills) on his back. For the first time since 1995-96, the Devils will not play in the postseason.

The Islanders, on the other hand, are unsurprising. They're a young team with some talent but no depth, and two of their top players suffered long-term injuries before the regular season began. It took a game against the Devils to end the Isles' 14-game losing streak. Wait 'til next year, Long Island.

2010-11 is another rebuilding season in Edmonton. The Oilers' most talented players are still too young to carry the load, so chalk this campaign up as a learning experience, with a shot at another top draft pick at the end. On a related note, Oil Change, airing on NHL Network, is a fascinating look at what's going on with the Oilers. Check it out.

IN THE CURVE

Everyone else.

SUMMARY/A LOOK AHEAD TO GAME 30

Through Game 20, we've called nine teams IN the 2011 Stanley Cup Playoffs - four in the Western Conference, five in the East. Three more teams are now OUT of the playoffs - one Western, two Eastern. That means the fates of eighteen teams have yet to be decided.

By Game 30, we should see one more team called Chasing Stanley in the East, which will leave just two open playoff slots for the remaining clubs to battle over. Also in the East, at least two teams are in grave danger of reaching Tee Time before Christmas.

In the West, an extended hot streak could get one more team into the playoffs by Game 30, while a couple of clubs will need to get in gear just to avoid joining Edmonton at Tee Time.

Check back here for team status updates. As OGA knows, so will you.

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

When Do Playoff Tickets Go On Sale, Columbus?

2010-11-26T10:15:00.004-06:00

Here's a sentence I didn't expect to write at any point this season (or next, for that matter):

Tonight, the Columbus Blue Jackets do battle with the Detroit Red Wings for first place in the Western Conference.

Shocking. The Blue Jackets weren't supposed to be this good - not with a new coach installing a new system, a suspect blueline, a suspect goalie and only one scoring line. In a division featuring the defending Stanley Cup Champs, the Hated Red Wings, the new and improved Blues (now with HALAK!) and the perennial playoff-bound Predators, Columbus was picked to finish dead last by virtually everyone, including the entire Puck Daddy staff.

Through the first two weeks of the season, the Blue Jackets did little to prove the prognosticators wrong. After opening the season in front of sparse crowds in Stockholm, they came home and, in front of sparse crowds at Nationwide Arena, served up a 5-2 stinker against Chicago and a 6-2 loss to Calgary. The loss to the Flames prompted Yours Truly to coin the term, "...burning bowel movement of a game..."

The Blue Jackets hit rock-bottom that night against Calgary. From there, they easily could've gone the way of the Islanders and Devils, imploding and playing for the 2011 Draft Lottery Championship. Instead, the Jackets pulled together, compiling a post-Flames-loss record of 11-3-0, including a franchise-first sweep of California (wins at Los Angeles, Anaheim and San Jose on the same road trip).

Those eleven wins include four shutouts - three from offseason acquisition Mathieu Garon, one from Goalie of the Present and Future Steve Mason. Like the team as a whole, Mason had a shaky start to the season, but continues to improve with every game. Apparently, nothing lights a fire under a goalie like a red-hot backup...and the "suspect" blueline has been surprisingly solid in their own end.

Curiously, Columbus is scoring with alacrity despite the absence of playmaker Kristian Huselius, out for 13 games and counting with a high ankle sprain, and despite a lack (until recently) of production from the second line of Filatov-Vermette-Umberger. The enigmatic Filatov is still searching for his first goal of the season, but his overall game is improving, so it's only a matter of time.

The chemistry of the Nash-Brassard-Voracek line has been key. Since Nash was swapped for Filatov on this line, both Brassard and Voracek have been energized. Brassard, in particular, is playing with high confidence and a smile on his face, both of which were missing last season.

Contributions from the third and fourth lines cannot be overlooked, as the likes of Chris Clark, Kyle Wilson, Derek Dorsett and Jared Boll have picked up the scoring slack for the second line.

In light of the Jackets' 12-6-2 start to the 2009-2010 season, which was followed by 62 games of painful ugliness, many have tempered their enthusiasm by adopting a perfectly understandable wait-and-see approach to this season. Here at OGA, however, we're officially calling the Columbus Blue Jackets IN the 2011 Stanley Cup Playoffs, as of 25 November. This is not last season's team. Rather than battling against their coach, the 2010-2011 Jackets are battling for their coach, as well as for each other. They're gaining strength and confidence daily. The fact that Columbus plays Detroit tonight for first place in the Western Conference, while surprising, is no fluke. When do playoff tickets go on sale, Columbus?

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

Feast and Famine in the NHL: Hat Tricks and Shutouts on the Rise

2010-11-19T10:10:00.005-06:00

While the first six weeks of the 2010-2011 NHL season has produced a number of compelling storylines, such as the emergence of Steven Stamkos as an elite (Crosby/Ovechkin level) player, the implosion of the New Jersey Devils and the Colin Campbell email controversy, the most intriguing theme to date is the dramatic rise in both hat tricks and shutouts.

MAD HATTERS:

Through Thursday night's action, 24 hat tricks have been recorded in the NHL. With 273 games in the books, that's an average of one hatter every 11.38 games. If this pace is maintained, the NHL will see an impressive 108 hat tricks this season. That's an astounding 47.9% increase over the 2009-2010 campaign, in which 73 hat tricks were scored. For added perspective, consider this: The free-wheeling 1987-1988 season, with Lemieux and Gretzky in their prime, saw 113 hat tricks recorded, while the 1998-1999 season, at the height of the "dead puck" era, chalked up just 56.

More interesting facts: The 3+ goal games are divided almost evenly, with 13 for Eastern Conference snipers and 11 for the West. Also, teams on the receiving end are fairly even, as 13 hatters have been against Eastern clubs, with 11 vs. the West. Perhaps most intriguing is the tendency to "keep it in the Conference," as 9 of 11 Western Conference hat tricks have been scored against other Western Conference clubs. Of the 13 Eastern Conference hat tricks, 11 were scored against Eastern teams.

CLEAN SLATES:

At the opposite end of the spectrum, NHL goalies have recorded 38 shutouts through 273 games this season. At an average of one every 7.18 games, that's an increase of 9.6% over the 2009-2010 campaign, in which shutouts came once every 7.94 games.

Shutouts are split right down the middle, with 19 each for Eastern and Western Conference goalies. A dramatic disparity is seen, however, in the victims of shutouts: 24, or 63.2%, have come against Eastern clubs, while only 14 (36.8%) have been against the West. This is due in part to the Western Conference's 41-21-9 record vs. Eastern teams. While just 4 of 19 shutouts by Eastern goalies came against Western teams, Western goalies racked up 9 of 19 shutouts against the East.

CONCLUSION:

An increase in hat tricks would seem to indicate a league-wide increase in scoring, while an increase in shutouts seems to indicate the opposite. What's going on? Scoring is up only slightly over last season (5.65 goals/game in 2010-2011 vs. 5.53 in 2009-2010), so the answer must lie elsewhere.

My theory is this: The combination of cap issues (in Chicago and New Jersey, among others) and injuries (in Colorado and St. Louis, among others) has caused an influx of not-ready-for-primetime skaters from the AHL and major junior leagues. The large number of relatively inexperienced players on the ice has resulted in higher-quality scoring chances across the league, which snipers (Stamkos, Semin, et al), savvy veterans (Ed Jovanovski, Raffi Torres) and even a few talented youngsters (Derek Stepan, Chris Stewart) have exploited.

On the flip side, those very same inexperienced players have struggled mightily to score against clubs with solid goaltending and good team defense. Boston, St. Louis and Montreal (combined) own 12 of 38 shutouts in the NHL this season. The Bruins and Habs are ranked 1-2 in team Goals Against Average (1.76 and 2.05, respectively), and the Blues were in the top three until a rash of injuries brought on their recent defensive struggles.

Curse the salary cap and injuries all you want, but they're making the 2010-2011 NHL season one to remember.

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

NHL Overtime on VERSUS: Wysh's Wants and More

2010-11-16T13:49:00.003-06:00

I was fully prepared to write a thorough critique of NHL Overtime, VERSUS' new hockey analysis show, but it seems a certain blogger who never sleeps beat me to it. Thus, I'll just point out my agreements and disagreements with Mr. Wyshynski, and add a thought or two of my own.

AGREEMENTS:

1. Dump The Desk, Ditch The Suits. Wysh is right: Put the talking heads in a more comfortable, casual environment, and let the conversation flow. This show should be a hockey-centric BOGSAT - a Bunch Of Guys Sitting Around Talking about hockey. Taking it a step further, as a viewer, I'd like the ability to text or email questions and have them answered on air. Get current and former players, coaches and management-types on the show, and get them to open up. Last night, for example, while Bill Patrick, Billy Jaffe and Bill Guerin were discussing Scott Gordon's dismissal by the Islanders, I would've loved to ask Guerin, "Bill, you played for the Islanders from 2007-09. Is this organization any less screwed up now than it was when you were there?"

2. Reinvent the highlights. Again, what Wysh said. I thought the first show was too highlight-heavy and analysis-light. If you're going to show highlights, break down a specific play. Don't give us what we can get on Hockey Central or NHL On The Fly. Again, using last night's show as an example, they could've shown Henrik Lundqvist breaking his stick, throwing it, and drawing an Unsportsmanlike Conduct penalty after allowing two goals in 38 seconds, then analyzed the questionable officiating which contributed to King Henrik's outburst...or debated pros and cons of Lundqvist losing his cool...or both.

4. More News, More Up-To-Date News, And More News We Care About. I know I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but...what Wysh said. How can you NOT talk about Colin Campbell's emails? What does Bill Guerin (or better yet, any recently-retired player) think about the "NHL Wheel of Justice"? (really, I'm talking about the NHL's seemingly capricious method of enforcement here, but DGB's flowchart is pure genius) Among other things, I want controversy. I want to know how many players agree with the statement, "NHL officiating is the worst in professional sports". I want to know, if the players voted, would Nick Lidstrom have won all those Norris Trophies? I want discussion and debate of current hockey events which mirrors the intensity and passion of The Great Game itself.

5. Keep Going "On Location". I would've liked a glimpse inside the Rangers' locker room after their come-from-behind OT win last night. Based on Jim Cerny's Tweets, it was quite a scene. Gimme somma dat, VERSUS.

DISAGREEMENTS:

3. Either Drop The Rundown or Steal From ESPN. Un momento, Señor Wyshynski - structuring a hockey show in a three-period format is tragically unhip? I beg to differ, sir. All the best Blog Talk Radio shows featuring guys Jabbering about Hockey use this format.

JURY STILL OUT:

6. Finally, Give Us Copious Amounts of Billy Jaffe. I'll have to see more of Mr. Jaffe before passing judgment. While I liked his energy, he did trip over his tongue a few times. Maybe it was first-night jitters. Time will tell.

BIG TEX'S TAKE:

Along with fewer highlights, more analysis and a more relaxed setting, how about throwing in some college and major junior hockey talk? Maybe pick one Top Prospect for the 2011 Draft each night, show some of his highlights and discuss which of the current NHL bottom-dwellers needs him most? Along the same lines, looking at some of the top AHLers would give fans a glimpse of the future of their franchise. Last, but not least, a smattering of fantasy hockey talk wouldn't hurt. After all, the majority of people who will stay up until midnight Eastern to watch NHL Overtime have at least one fantasy team. Give 'em a good tip or two for players to start (or bench) for tomorrow nights' games.

Of greater importance than the content of the show, the Monday night premiere of NHL Overtime on VERSUS sent a message: NHL, VERSUS loves you with all its' corporate heart, and wants you back next year. And the next. And the year after that. Do you think ESPN would put an hour-long NHL show on The Mothership four days a week? Winged monkeys exiting Gary Bettman's rectum comes to mind.

While some will argue in favor of ESPN's higher profile (roughly 26 million more viewers than VERSUS), I recall well their treatment of the NHL during the last few years of that TV contract. Remember the "less is more" fable, when ESPN cut the number of games broadcast, and shunted most of those off to ESPN2? Given the option of broadcasting NFL, NBA, MLB or NHL games, The Leader In Sports will always choose the NHL last. ALWAYS. Better the NHL should remain a big fish in a small pond, particularly since that pond is growing.

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

OGA’s Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) At The 15’s

2010-11-15T09:38:00.004-06:00

All but BOS have made it to or past the Game 15 (G15) mark, and CHI has made it to G20. Where does the NHL stand in On Goal Analysis terms?

Chasing Stanley

From the G10 call, a glance at the OGA Home Page tells you MTL, TBL and STL are Chasing Stanley, or IN the playoffs in 2011. OGA knows right now of one more team that will be announced as Chasing Stanley at G20, and another three that should relatively easily join the ranks as well (that’s a total of two from each Conference). There are two more on the bubble (again, split between the Conferences) that are likely Chasing Stanley candidates depending on how they finish out the G20 stretch. If all of those teams make it to this level by G20, that total of nine is behind the average of Chasing Stanley calls at G20 by 2.4 teams. This reflects the parity that has crept into the NHL this season bigger than ever. For the naming of those teams, keep your eye on the OGA Home Page for G20 updates.

In The Curve

The teams playing just about average fall in this category and represent the old Bell Curve in PQC calls as most teams rest here for about half of the season.

In the East, we are tracking six teams solidly at Chasing Stanley at G20. There are three more on the bubble that could slip just below In The Curve at Dusting Off Clubs or as low as Tee Time. Out West, CHI was called In The Curve last night at their G20 mark. In that conference, there are another nine teams with solid shots at In The Curve and one more on the bubble for something lower. Again, those calls will be on the OGA Home Page as team G20’s arrive on the calendar.

Tee Time

And we are looking at possibly two teams hitting the Tee Time mark – eliminated from Playoff contention – at G20. Again, underscoring League parity, we average 2.6 Tee Time calls by G20, so two teams called OUT would be just a little below average.

This Week’s PQC Calendar

G20 PQC calls this week mark up the calendar pretty well. Last night, CHI hit G20 with an In The Curve call. You are looking at a schedule like this through next Sunday:

MON – None

TUE – ANA

WED – BUF and PIT

THUR – PHI

FRI – ATL, NYR, OTT and WSH

SAT – CAR, COL, MTL, NJD and TBL

SUN – NYI, PHX and VAN

During this week, we will see some Chasing Stanley, possibly a little Tee Time, and a lot of In The Curve action as we will have more than 50% of the NHL’s G20 call by then.

Just A Little More Insight

And just to bring you a little deeper into where we are with our assessments, below by conference is our own, internal power ranking order through games ending Sunday night, 15 NOV:

Eastern Conference – WSH, PHI, MTL, BOS, NYR, OTT, TBL, PIT, FLA, CAR, ATL, TOR, BUF, NJD and NYI

Western Conference – LAK, DET, STL, VAN, CBJ, SJS, ANA, NSH, MIN, PHX, DAL, COL, CHI, CGY and EDM

Teams in bold are your conference Top 8 we project out to G82 based on how they are performing. We see the West similar to last season where it might just take more points than average to earn that #8 seed. We also see at the moment that the East may fall out a lot like last season where you can solidly pick the teams who will be Chasing Stanley relatively early with a high degree of accuracy.

Summary

And that is your G15 Playoff Qualifying Curve summary for 2010/11. There’s plenty more Hockey to play this season and nobody quite knows where the next Blues-like eight game winning, or Isles-like 10 game losing, streak lurks. Stay tuned to OGA for your calls of IN or OUT of the playoffs at the earliest possible moment.

Naming Conventions: The New All Star Teams

2010-11-11T10:12:00.004-06:00

What to do, what to do?

With a potentially great, new way of choosing the All Star team players upon us (way to go Shanny!), there's another consideration to be made here: What do they name the teams? I think you have at least four potential courses of action (COAs) here.

COA 1 - The Captains

Yes, you could surely name them after the two team Captains. They will, for all intents and purposes, be those Captains' teams ala road hockey style. I like the concept. It has a cool upside as a tip of the hat to pond/street hockey. The downside is a slight risk of alienating the non-true Hockey fan by picking someone else's player and not 28 other teams' fan favorite. Risk here is minimal, though. I rate this option at 3.5 of five stars.

COA 2 - The Coaches

Another option. In my opinion, it is just an OK COA. You have two downsides: people tip their hat to a coach, but really like their bench bosses semi-transparent; and you will alienate 28 other teams by putting CURRENT coaches behind the bench. If recognizing the coaches in this manner is desired, you cannot pick this COA unless you pick a retired coach. Think Scotty Bowman, here. This COA is a bit dicey, so I rate it two out of five stars.

COA 3 - The Old School

Here's an option for you to consider. Something like a Wales Team and a Campbell Team. Rockin' the RBC with an acknowledgement of the old NYI and EDM dynasty days? That is a slick option. The only drawback I see immediately? There will be people in attendance and watching via their favorite media method who will need to be told just what a Wales and Campbell are. Give this one three of five stars.

COA 4 - My Favorite

This is the best COA in my opinion. Name the teams after two great, former players. Make them the honorary team GM's. Give them a role as team spokesmen and choose a couple of venues for media and fan interaction, and give them some access to the team for inspirational purposes. I am a fan of Team Howe and Team Orr this year. I flat out rate this as a five-fer-five stars, on the Richter scale, or any other way you want to measure it.

And I leave it to the Puck Daddy staff and fans to tell us: If you chose one of the above COAs, what does your jersey look like?

NHL Weekend Roadie: The Widowmaker

2010-11-08T22:15:00.003-06:00

This installment of the NHL Weekend Roadie is aptly named, “The Widowmaker”. The name is apropos because, when you tell your Significant Other you’re taking this trip, she’s going to kill you.

If you’re single (or looking to become single), you’ve passed the first major hurdle. Next, you have to ask yourself some questions, such as:

1. How close am I to my family?
2. How dedicated am I to The Great Game?
3. Can my bank account withstand a roadie of epic proportions?
4. How long can I survive on arena food before scurvy sets in?

If your answers to the above questions are, “Not Very”, “VERY”, “Probably” and “At least a week”, then read on.

The itinerary:

NHL Weeks Seven AND Eight (Friday, 19 NOV – Monday, 28 NOV)

Friday, 19 NOV: Washington @ Atlanta – This epic roadie kicks off in Hotlanta with a tilt between Southeast division rivals. The last time these teams met at Philips Arena, Thrashers goalie Ondrej Pavelec collapsed on the ice and exited the arena on a stretcher, but Atlanta rallied for an emotional 4-2 win. While this game (hopefully) won’t be quite so dramatic, it promises to be a good one.

Saturday, 20 NOV: Nashville @ Carolina – Today, you’re up early and on the road, as you’ve got a 411 mile, seven-hour drive ahead of you. As mentioned in a previous post, plan on getting to the RBC Center early to tailgate with the Hurricanes fans. After the party, the real fun begins: a game between regional rivals. Will ‘Canes rookie Jeff Skinner go all highlight reel on the Preds? Will Shea Weber, like Stella, get his groove back? It’s worth the drive to find out.

Sunday, 21 NOV: NY Islanders @ Atlanta – Remember that 411 mile, seven-hour drive? Well, you’re doing it again today. This game starts at 5:00pm, so plan accordingly – these are two up-and-coming clubs, so you won’t want to miss any of the action. Which goalie will collapse first – Pavelec, or the Isles’ Rick DiPietro?

Monday, 22 NOV: Boston @ Tampa Bay – Tampa is 456 miles/7.5 hours from Atlanta, so you might want to consider driving part-way after the Thrashers-Isles game Sunday night. Your fourth game in as many nights features two of the hottest teams in the Eastern Conference, so it shouldn’t disappoint. This will be the first time to see newly-minted superstar Steve Stamkos and 2010’s No.2 draft pick, Tyler Seguin, on the same sheet of ice.

Tuesday, 23 NOV: REST – Hey, after four-in-four and 1278 miles, you’ve earned a day off. Sleep in, then head over to Indian Rocks Beach for lunch at Keegan’s Seafood Grille. Explore Tampa if you like, but above all, take it easy.

Wednesday, 24 NOV: NY Rangers @ Tampa Bay – If the Rangers are playing anywhere in Florida, expect an energized, sellout crowd. The Blueshirts are currently playing the best hockey of Coach John Tortorella’s tenure, while the Stamkos-led Lightning are surging. This Thanksgiving-eve matchup might just be the highlight of the trip.

Thursday, 25 NOV: American Thanksgiving – The holiday gives you another day off. Call your family from the beach and quote Jimmy Buffett to them: “The weather is here, wish you were beautiful.” They’ll hang up, of course, but you’ll be able to say you did your familial duty. Enjoy the rest of the day. Have some turkey and dressing…or mahi-mahi and a margarita, perhaps. Watch football if you must. Tomorrow begins the last leg of your epic journey.

Friday, 26 NOV: NY Rangers @ Florida – Your 229 mile, four-hour drive today should be a breeze. As with Wednesday night’s game in Tampa, expect a sellout. Don’t let the Panthers’ current 5-7-0 record fool you – heinous officiating was a direct contributor to two of their losses. The Panthers and Rangers are two of the hardest-working teams in the NHL right now, so expect plenty of blood, toil, tears and sweat tonight.

Saturday, 27 NOV: Florida @ Tampa Bay – It’s 229 miles/four hours back to Tampa on this day. While this rivalry has lost intensity over the past few seasons, it looks to be heating up again. Back in September, many pundits picked the Lightning to return to the playoffs and the Panthers to return to the Southeast division cellar. In the first meeting of the season between these clubs, Florida spanked Tampa, 6-0, in Sunrise. Tonight, the Lightning will attempt to return the favor in front of their own fans.

Sunday, 28 NOV: Boston @ Atlanta – Your final drive of the trip is another 456 miles/7.5 hours back to the beginning of “The Widowmaker” – Atlanta. If you’ve made it this far and aren’t having nightmares involving hot dogs and nachos, consider yourself lucky. Because no journey should end without a reward, the OGA Boys hereby make the following offer: The first person to email mike@ongoalanalysis.com will receive two FREE tickets to this Bruins-Thrashers game.

Monday, 29 NOV: GO HOME…to whatever home remains after eight games in ten days, over 2,192 miles.

So that’s it: an epic Thanksgiving holiday week roadie. The OGA Boys’ record roadie thus far is five games in five days (including a Columbus Day doubleheader at Nassau Coliseum and Madison Square Garden), so we know eight-in-ten is very doable (though our wives say otherwise). If you can pull off this road trip, let us know; we’ll be happy to testify on your behalf at your divorce hearing.

HOTELS – Check Hotwire.com for your hotel needs in Atlanta, Raleigh, Tampa and Sunrise. Right now, there are great deals to be had on four-star joints in Tampa and North Fort Lauderdale on the applicable dates.

FLIGHTS – You’ll be flying into (and out of) Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson International, which is the busiest airport in the world. If you don’t factor delays into your travel, you will regret it. If you’re flying in on Friday, 19 NOV, book an early morning flight.

FOOD – Check these sites for great one-of-a-kind (non-chain restaurant) dining:
Anywhere: http://www.roadfood.com/ or http://www.flavortownusa.com/
In Atlanta: http://www.atlanta.net/dining/index.aspx
In Raleigh: http://www.visitraleigh.com/visitors/restaurants/
In Tampa: http://tboextra.com/dining/
In Sunrise: http://chowhound.chow.com/topics/494808

TICKETS – Tickets are available through all team websites, as well as StubHub. For those too lazy to Google it, here are the links:
Atlanta Thrashers
Carolina Hurricanes
Florida Panthers
Tampa Bay Lightning

GETTING AROUND – Three words: REN.TAL.CAR. Get one with unlimited miles, or you’ll quickly discover it would’ve been cheaper to simply buy a used car, then re-sell it at the end of the trip.

Yes, this special edition of the NHL Weekend Roadie is very Southeast Division-centric, and with good reason: First and foremost, the Southeast is rapidly becoming the most exciting division in the NHL, as the dominance of the Washington Capitals has forced Atlanta, Carolina, Tampa Bay and Florida to change in order to become more competitive. Also, with all the “windshield time” involved in this roadie, good driving conditions are a must, and the weather in Georgia, North Carolina and Florida is quite nice in November. You call yourself a hockey fan? Prove it – hit the road!

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.