The Original Weather Blog

Significant Severe Weather Episodes Likely Today and Tomorrow...

2013-06-12T11:53:00.002-05:00

As mentioned in a post on Monday, the potential exists for a significant wind damage event from late this afternoon into this evening and tonight over a large portion of the Midwest and Ohio Valley region. The area at greatest risk is within the yellow shaded and lavender hatched area on the above image, which includes the cities of Chicago, Indianapolis, Ft. Wayne and Columbus.

The activity may initially begin with one or more isolated, supercell type storms, particularly over extreme eastern Iowa into northern Illinois, where a strong tornado or two cannot be ruled out before the activity congeals into a larger complex later this evening.

Once the larger bow echo and/or thunderstorm complex forms, it will race East/Southeastward, producing very damaging winds in excess of hurricane force over a potentially large area across the Ohio Valley region into tonight. People across this region should prepare for the possibility of extended duration power outages as a result of the widespread high wind threat.

If you live across this region, please be very alert from mid to late afternoon into the evening and nighttime hours. Make sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings, including during the overnight hours tonight.

Due to the potential intensity of the wind with these storms, this is one of those rare situations where I would recommend that you treat a Severe Thunderstorm Warning the same way that you would treat a Tornado Warning. Seek shelter below ground if possible, or in a small interior room away from outside walls and windows until the storm passes your location.

The threat of severe weather will shift Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and Delmarva regions on Thursday, with widespread wind damage possible once again, especially within the reddish-orange shaded area on the image below:

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Tropical Trouble for Texas / Mexico Next Week?

2013-06-11T10:45:00.001-05:00

This is not a forecast, just something that will be interesting to watch from a computer model forecast performance perspective...

The last few runs of both the European and the U.S. based GFS computer models are forecasting a tropical system to develop in the Southwest part of the Gulf of Mexico late next week, with a possible impact somewhere along the Mexico and/or Texas coasts on Thursday or Friday, June 20-21:

European Forecast Model Valid 7pm CDT Thursday, 6/20/13

There's no doubt that tropical weather is very difficult to forecast beyond 120 hours, much less 240 hours in the future as in this case. With that said, you may also recall that last season the European Model in particular had a very strong track record in indicating potential tropical development, even at longer range time periods.

This will be interesting to watch...and will be the first test of "long range" model accuracy in the tropics this season.

It also serves as a reminder to those along the western and central Gulf Coast that it would be a good time to review/prepare your Tropical Weather Emergency Kit and Safety/Preparedness Tips just in case a system does threaten your area later this season.

Stay tuned for updates on this over the coming days...

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Severe Threat Includes Widespread Damaging Winds This Week...

2013-06-10T08:20:00.002-05:00

As we head deeper into the summer months, the threat for "significant" tornado activity generally tends to decrease, while the threat for very damaging straight line wind gusts increases - and that's definitely the type of pattern that appears to be shaping up for this week.

Below are the latest severe weather outlooks for today through Wednesday, respectively:

Today's severe weather threat will be characterized by generally short-lived "pulse" type thunderstorms that pop-up, produce gusty winds and marginally severe hail in spots, and then rapidly diminish. An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out, but this will not be the dominant form of severe weather today.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, the threat for organized and/or widespread wind damage will increase, particularly across the green shaded areas on the outlook for those days. The primary threat will exist from late afternoon into the evening and early nighttime hours on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Some of the wind gusts may indeed become very damaging (i.e., in excess of 80 mph) and widespread in the indicated areas. This is the type of situation where you should treat a "Severe Thunderstorm Warning" just as you would a Tornado Warning, and seek shelter in a small interior room on the lowest floor until the storms pass. In other words, please don't treat this situation like a "garden variety severe thunderstorm" event or you could be placing yourself or your family at greater risk of injury.

Stay tuned for updates as we head further into the week...

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Tornado Threat Increasing Across Florida with T.S. Andrea...

2013-06-06T10:16:00.000-05:00

The center of Tropical Storm Andrea is inching ever closer to the Florida "bend" at this hour, and the threat of tornadoes will continue to ramp up across the state today as this takes place...

The latest Tornado Watch is in effect until 10pm EDT:

Fortunately, with the center of Andrea so close to land, little in the way of additional strengthening is likely insofar as tropical characteristics are concerned.

A deluge of heavy, potentially flooding rainfall will continue across Florida, southern Georgia and eventually South Carolina today, with the heavy rain forecast to spread North/Northeastward along the Eastern seaboard into the weekend:

For additional details, radar and satellite imagery on Tropical Storm Andrea, please click on the Tropical Weather link at the upper right hand corner of the blog homepage.

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Surviving a Tornado Above Ground vs. Driving Away From It: More El Reno Tornado Controversy from 5-31-13...

2013-06-04T12:34:00.002-05:00

Before the news of "storm chaser" deaths associated with the tornadoes near El Reno, OK on May 31, 2013, the big buzz within some parts of the media and across the entire severe weather safety community had to do with scenes like the one above - a heavily congested I-35 heading South out of Oklahoma City, away from the incoming storms.

So, what exactly are we looking at here? Is this simply rush hour traffic on a Friday afternoon? Is this a scene showing people attempting to flee the tornado warned area and get out of the danger zone? Could it be some of both?

Assuming that even part of the congestion was caused by folks attempting to flee the danger zone, why would they do that instead of "sheltering in place" as they have been advised to do for many years? Was it because of the devastation that they had witnessed in Moore just over one week earlier, or were they following someone else's advice in a moment of fear and/or panic? Again, could it be some of both?

If they were following another person's advice, chances are that it was that of meteorologist Mike Morgan at KFOR-TV. Mike was part of KFOR's live coverage that was broadcast not only on their air, but also on radio stations and internet streams that afternoon and evening. KFOR is also an NBC affiliate, so The Weather Channel (which is owned by NBC Universal) also carried significant portions of KFOR's coverage live, including segments like this one below.

Pay particular attention to Mike's words from about 0:50 to 1:25 into the video:

My main takeaway was that his advice to residents was:

• You can't survive this tornado if you're not underground

• Get away (in your vehicle) from the tornado if you don't have adequate shelter

This particular segment addressed the threat to residents of Yukon, but a very similar (if not identical) message was relayed as tornadoes threatened El Reno, south Oklahoma City and other areas as well.

So, was this good advice or was it not? In my opinion, the answer is mostly "no", but to be completely fair, let's take a closer look at each point:

• "You can't survive this tornado if you're not underground..." Obviously, that's not a true statement, as nothing is impossible when it comes to tornado survival. In the least, this was a poor choice of words, but they were the same words that he would repeat numerous times that day.

With that said, it is absolutely true that if you want to ensure your survival in a strong or violent tornado situation, your best bet is always to shelter below ground. This is not a news bulletin to anyone living in Oklahoma or other areas that are frequented by strong and violent tornadoes. It's a fact of life (literally).

Another important point to remember when considering the underground vs. above ground sheltering option is that it's not necessarily a "direct hit" by a tornado that causes deaths. More often than not, tornado deaths are the result of debris hitting the victim in the head, chest or torso, and that can happen well away from the actual "center" of the tornado's path. This is the main reason, in my opinion, that getting below ground is always the best, safest option, if such an option is available...

...and many folks in this region do have such an option, either via a basement or storm cellar that has been in place for years, or via a storm shelter that has been installed following violent tornado events of recent years).

Many folks in this area also have a friend or relative that has such an option if they don't have one of their own - but you have to assess the threat well ahead of time (i.e., when the Tornado Watch is issued - don't wait for the Warning) and be able to safely get to that location well before the actual threat exists.

• "Get away from the tornado if you don't have adequate shelter..." Very good advice, but not when you have only minutes to react. This is particularly the case when you live in a heavily populated metropolitan area where roads can become congested quickly on their own, much less in an emergency evacuation type situation.

For years now, I've been advising residents of mobile homes and other vulnerable locations without a nearby sheltering option to leave their home and go to a friend or relative's house or other more suitable structure as soon as a Tornado Watch is issued for their area. You absolutely do not want to try and flee by vehicle once you're in a warning situation, particularly in a heavily populated area where there is a potential for you to get stuck on a log jammed roadway.

Should you do this every time a Tornado Watch is issued? That's a matter of personal opinion and is unique to your specific situation. If you are "scared to death" in almost any tornado situation, then you probably should. If you're only concerned about "the big one", you'll likely be given clues by trusted meteorologists and other sources before the event actually begins to unfold. On my blog, I always use words like "pay particular attention to the weather in this area", or "one or more strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible today" when trying to get the word out about a particularly volatile situation.

After making repeated statements like the ones in the video above, many were understandably quick to jump on Mike Morgan's case over the weekend, particularly when it was revealed that several of the deaths in the OKC Metro area on Friday took place on roadways. While I believe that his intentions were probably good, I feel that he delivered the advice either (1). using a poor choice and/or combination of words and/or (2). when it was too late for people to safely do something about their situation, potentially causing more of a "panic" mode.

In my opinion, the 12 Noon newscast that day (if not before) would have been the time to suggest that folks line up a more suitable sheltering option if they weren't comfortable with the one they would have later in the afternoon and evening. That would have given folks some time to contact a friend or relative, make a plan and not have to rush out in a moment of panic into a potentially dangerous situation.

The fact of the matter is that we'll probably never know why all of the people that did choose to flee made that decision on Friday. Not everyone in OKC watches KFOR-TV or The Weather Channel. I feel that many probably reacted that way when they heard that another potentially devastating tornado was headed their way again, especially after what they had witnessed in Moore the week before. Add some traditional and/or social media "hysteria" to the mix, and you have all of the necessary ingredients for a full blown panic situation for some.

Without a doubt, the combination of rush hour traffic, people fleeing based on bad advice and people fleeing based on their own fear of the situation turned out to be a major problem for almost all involved, and it may have even resulted in death for a select number (although that is difficult to quantify based on the information that we have to date). A tragic situation anyway you look at it, and one that could have been avoided last Friday and should be avoided in the future.

"No Other Options"

So, what do you do if you don't have an underground shelter and a strong or violent tornado will potentially affect your location in minutes?

Do the same thing you've been told to do since Kindergarten: get in a small interior room or hallway on the lowest floor of your location and cover your head and upper body as much as possible.

Bathrooms and closets offer great protection, but be sure to put as many walls between you and the exterior of your location as possible (don't go to one on the outside wall). The bathroom is probably the best option in this case, as the pipes in the walls may offer additional support and protection.

If you have a bicycle, motorcycle, football or other type of "crash helmet", put it on, especially on the kids. Head injuries are among the leading causes of tornado fatalities, particularly in children.

"Caught In the Car"

If you are caught in your vehicle and a tornado is approaching (whether you're stuck in rush hour traffic, blocked by a flooded road or took some bad advice and tried to run away from the tornado when it was too late), by all means get out of the vehicle!

I was shocked and appalled to see the American Red Cross of all people recommend last year that it was "safe" to stay seat belted in your car if a tornado was approaching. I could not disagree more, and the statistics from Joplin, Moore, and most recently in El Reno prove that without a doubt, a vehicle is no safe place to be during a strong or violent tornado.

If you are caught in your vehicle and have no way to safely get out of the situation, leave your car immediately and lay low in a ditch, ravine or other low spot. Again, cover your head and upper body as much as possible, and if you have a helmet available, put it on!

As I always try to point out, you can survive a tornado regardless of your circumstances. The main thing is to plan ahead, that way you are less likely to panic and make a bad decision when the critical time does come.

Our thoughts and prayers continue to be with the folks that have been devastated by tornadoes over the last month, and we hope that the worst of this season is behind us - but please take some time to prepare and have a safety action plan in place now, just in case another threat does develop in your area.

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Thoughts on the Death of Tim Samaras; Overall Tornado Chase Situation in El Reno OK on 5-31-13...

2013-06-03T10:47:00.002-05:00

I was both shocked and saddened to hear that severe weather researcher and storm chaser Tim Samaras (pictured above, photo courtesy National Geographic) was one of those killed by tornadoes in the Oklahoma City / El Reno areas on Friday afternoon, May 31, 2013.

Tim was not the type of storm chaser that you'd "expect" to see in that type of headline. If I had to use three words to describe Tim's approach to tornado chasing they would be experienced, professional and cautious. He was certainly not what I would call a "hot shot", nor was he out there to make himself famous via dramatic, too close for comfort photos and/or videos. He was a severe weather researcher - a true scientist and had done work sponsored by both the National Science Foundation and the National Geographic Society.

With that said, let's be brutally honest about something: One of Tim's primary missions was to place meteorological instrument packages in the paths of oncoming tornadoes. He had been doing this for years, and with considerable success. In fact, on June 24, 2003, one of his probes measured the steepest pressure drop in the world (100mb in 40 seconds) as an EF-4 intensity tornado passed over the probe near Manchester South Dakota:

Why do I say "let's be brutally honest" when leading into this part of the discussion? Because when your mission is to place probes or other devices in the path of an oncoming tornado, sooner or later, no matter how cautious and/or experienced you are, the odds of something "bad" happening are bound to catch up with you.

Under such a scenario, "bad" could range from as little as your vehicle being stranded on a flooded roadway or damaged by flying debris, to the ultimate definition of the term - your seemingly untimely death. Unfortunately, the latter form of the word was exactly what happened to Tim and his crew on Friday (his son, Paul Samaras, age 24, and fellow researcher/chaser Carl Young, age 45, were also killed).

I cannot confirm that the photo below is indeed one of Tim's research vehicles after coming in contact with a tornado near El Reno on Friday, but "major" media outlets in the Oklahoma City area are reporting it as such:

Regardless of who's vehicle this was, the destruction is noteworthy from an educational standpoint. That's the engine block laying out beside the vehicle, which had been carried some distance before being dropped and/or thrown by the tornado. A vehicle is no place to be during a tornado, despite some shocking "advice" to the contrary that came out from the American Red Cross of all places last year. I wholeheartedly disagree with anyone who says it's safer to ride out a tornado in your vehicle than in a ditch, ravine or other low lying area. I think the image above (as well as countless others from Moore earlier in May as well as other events) speaks for itself on that point.

According to the medical examiner's office, Tim's body was found still seat belted in his vehicle, while the other two members of his crew were removed from their vehicle and their bodies were found some distance away (reportedly 1/2 mile or more).

I do not report the above information to be morbid or to show lack of respect for those lost, I am doing it to further prove a point: tornado chasing is a serious, very dangerous business. I know Tim counseled "up and coming" chasers to that end before, and I am sure he would continue to do that now if he had the opportunity. It's not a game or a contest to see who can be closest and first with dramatic videos - it's serious business.

So, how did the odds catch up to him, and why were the results so deadly? There were likely multiple factors at play, but I think one overall theme is emerging from the events of Friday: this was a complex supercell thunderstorm, which did not behave "normally" in many ways.

The El Reno / south OKC supercell was very large and had multiple circulations taking place at (or very near) the same time. Meteorologists (and presumably storm chasers) know that a major circulation will "cycle" from time to time. That is where the original circulation weakens and/or diminishes and is replaced by a new circulation to the right or left of the original.

The photo below captures what was likely one of several "cycles" that took place with the El Reno storm on Friday. It was taken by the Basehunters storm chase team:

Note the remnant/decreasing circulation on the right, and the newly forming circulation and condensation funnel on the left.

In the above photo, the replacement tornado was relatively close to the original. This is not always the case, as a considerable distance can exist between the two (actually, that is quite common).

Another hazard in the "cycle" situation is that the parent thunderstorm can also send out a significant amount of non-tornadic downburst and/or straight line winds when the transition is taking place. I found myself caught by such a burst of wind in Nebraska on a chase way back in 1990, and I was nearly blown off of the road in my chase vehicle. I believe this is what happened to the Weather Channel's chase team on Friday when their vehicle was flipped over, rolled and heavily damaged (thankfully, all were able to walk away):

After my experience in 1990, I increased the distance that I had already set for myself as far as how close I would get to the parent circulation of a supercell. That's easy to do if you're just plain "chasing", but if your mission is to place probes in front of the tornado's likely path, increasing the "safe zone" can be a difficult task to achieve.

Another contributing factor was that this supercell was what we call "high precipitation" meaning it contained copious amounts of torrential rain and hail, both of which can obscure the general circulation and tornado threat considerably.

Flash Flood Warnings were in effect simultaneously with tornado warnings on Friday, which creates another potential hazard for those out on the roadways. The radar snapshot below shows a close-up of the OKC Metro and the storm in question on Friday. As you can see, heavy rain and hail (yellows and reds) were widespread and extended almost in all directions from the parent circulation, which as of the time of this image was circled in white:

The bottom line is that if you find yourself too close to the beast (meaning the general circulation or mesocyclone) in such a large supercell and a cycle begins to take place quickly, as was the case multiple times on Friday, you can be caught off guard and the results can be disastrous.

I've (thus far) silently observed calls this weekend for storm chasing to be "banned" or for a permit or license to be required. That's pure nonsense. You can't legislate or regulate a human being's right to observe his or her natural surroundings (or at least you shouldn't be able to if we truly reside in a free land).

Lots of things in life are dangerous. Do you need a permit to climb a mountain? How about the rattle snake hunts that are held in various parts of the southwest each year? As far as I know, you don't need a permit to participate, and quite frankly, I'd rather responsibly chase a tornado any day rather than poke around under rocks for venomous snakes who are ultimately unhappy to see me.

In my opinion, many in the "mainstream" are far to quick to call for government intervention now days. This all comes down to personal responsibility. Anyone is free to go out and observe the wonders of nature, which includes violent thunderstorms and tornadoes, and that's the way it ought to be. But as I always caution folks (and I know that Tim did, too), the inexperienced should never attempt to do this alone - always make sure that an experienced chaser is on board.

Sadly, knowledge and experience did not save Tim and his crew on Friday. While this was a tragic event, it is extremely rare for the thunderstorm or tornado itself to kill a storm chaser. Most serious injuries and/or deaths of chasers in the past have been the result of a car accident, completely unrelated to the situation at hand.

The "media frenzy" surrounding tornado and severe weather events in recent years also brings this issue to the forefront, and it will be interesting to see how this plays out in the longer term.

To summarize, my thoughts are: Ban or regulate storm chasing? No. Encourage responsibility, common sense and the utmost caution, including (and in some cases, especially) among members of the media? Yes.

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Severe Weather Threat Increasing Again Today thru Wednesday...

2013-06-03T08:02:00.001-05:00

After a (thankfully) relatively quiet period with only isolated to scattered severe weather events on Saturday and Sunday, it looks like we're going to be lunged back into a more active pattern for this week...especially the first half of the week.

Below are the severe weather outlooks for today through Wednesday, respectively:

Right now, it appears that the most active day will likely be tomorrow, Tuesday, as the combination of middle and upper level jet stream winds and Southerly low level winds will be strongest during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the central and southern High Plains. This type of set up is likely to produce some of the more organized storms of the week, with the potential for very large hail and tornadoes with the strongest storms.

Otherwise, there will be a risk for damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes with severe storms today through Wednesday, with the highest risk located within the green and reddish-orange shaded areas on the above images.

The threat of severe weather will shift East/Southeast into portions of the Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valley Regions on Thursday and/or Friday, but at this time there is too much uncertainty regarding the placement of low level boundaries to focus in on a particular area for an elevated threat. Stay tuned for updates on that as we move through the week.

If you live or have travel plans across the severe weather threat areas, please stay alert, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours. Make sure you have a plan in place ahead of time so that you can quickly get to shelter if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.

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Significant Hail and Tornado Threat Again Today in Oklahoma - Adjacent Areas...

2013-05-31T09:26:00.000-05:00

As the saying goes, "there's no rest for the weary" and that will certainly be the case again today I'm afraid for our friends in Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas and southern Missouri.

The latest severe weather outlook for today is shown above, and the reddish/orange shaded area shows a significant threat of severe weather, including the potential for strong and/or long track tornadoes and hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter.

The most pronounced threat of severe weather includes the cities of Tulsa, Oklahoma City, Joplin, Springfield and Fayetteville (much the same areas as yesterday).

Activity will develop and/or intensify by mid to late afternoon and continue into the evening, so please pay attention to the weather if you live or have travel plans across the region.

Please be sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings, even at night after you go to bed. Also, make sure that you've identified your best sheltering option at home, work or school so that you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.

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Significant - But Not Widespread - Severe Weather Threat Again Today...

2013-05-30T10:16:00.002-05:00

There is a threat of significant severe weather across the Plains again today, within the red shaded area on the image above. By significant, I am indicating that the potential exists for hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter and strong and/or long track tornadoes in this area.

This threat includes the cities of Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Wichita Falls, Wichita, Emporia, Chanute, Joplin, Springfield, Fayetteville and Ft. Smith.

I noted in the headline that the threat would not be widespread, as the activity today is more likely to be isolated to scattered in coverage within the "significant" severe weather threat area. While that may sound good from a coverage standpoint, those of you who live in the area know that it is bad news from a severe potential standpoint, as isolated, supercell storms are the ones that produce the most significant tornadoes and severe weather.

For that reason, please be on the alert in this area from mid to late afternoon into the evening hours especially.

I'll try and provide another update at midday or early afternoon once the situation begins to unfold. Folks on the Western edge of the risk area would be impacted first, with the activity then spreading East/Northeastward over time. It is much easier to post an update on facebook and/or twitter, so if you're interested in receiving more frequent updates, please be sure to follow me there if you haven't already.

If you live anywhere within the severe weather outlook areas for today and tonight, please be sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings, event at night after you go to bed. Also, make sure that you've identified your best sheltering option at home, work or school so that you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.

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Several Significant Severe Weather Events Likely Today...

2013-05-29T08:53:00.000-05:00

We are likely to see several significant severe weather events across the Plains and Midwest today into early tonight. All modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes, large to very large hail, and the potential for very damaging straight line wind gusts over a fairly large geographic area.

Above is the latest severe weather outlook for today. The highest potential for very large hail, tornadoes and potentially very damaging winds will exist within the reddish/orange shaded area, including the cities of Amarillo, Lawton, Woodward, Enid, Pratt, Great Bend and Colby. Some of this threat could extend East as far as the I-35 corridor in the OKC Metro area late this evening or early tonight.

The potential exists for hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter and strong and/or long track tornadoes within the red/orange shaded area, so please pay particular attention to the weather in this region this afternoon through early tonight.

Otherwise, scattered severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are possible across the remainder of the outlook area, especially within the yellow and green shaded areas. A few tornadoes are also possible with severe storms in these areas, especially with any storm that is able to remain isolated and become well organized.

Locally heavy rainfall will also be widespread across much of the same region today and tonight, with amounts in excess of 2 inches possible in areas with repeat thunderstorm activity:

If you live across the severe weather threat areas for today, please be alert, especially from mid to late afternoon through this evening and early tonight. Be sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings, event at night after you go to bed. Also, make sure that you've identified your best sheltering option at home, work or school so that you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.

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Keep an Eye to the Sky This Week for Severe Weather Threats...

2013-05-27T09:48:00.003-05:00

If you've been monitoring the severe weather outlook pages (2nd link on the right hand navigation menu here on the blog homepage) for the last few days, you've no doubt noticed an increase in the severe weather threat for the coming week, beginning today.

The latest outlooks for the next four days are shown below:

If you live in these areas, and especially within the green and/or red shaded areas, please pay particular attention to the weather, especially during the afternoon and evening hours each day.

Large hail, damaging winds and an increasing risk of tornadoes will be associated with the severe weather threat each day.

With lots of outdoor holiday plans in place for today across the Plains, make sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings no matter where you're at, and take a few moments to identify your best sheltering option, especially if you're in an unfamiliar place.

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The Tornado Chronicles: Moore, OK Tornado of 5-20-13...

2013-05-23T09:30:00.000-05:00

As you know by now, a devastating tornado struck the Moore, OK area late during the afternoon hours of May 20, 2013. This is the same community that was hit hard by violent tornadoes back in 1999 and again in 2003.

Here are some videos of the tornado that have emerged on YouTube:

The next one is definitely from the "do not try this at home" department, but is very revealing as to the power of this tornado:

Notice how the videographer jumped back into his/her vehicle toward the end? Not a good idea. Just ask the owner of this truck (one of countless photos of completely destroyed vehicles):

There is one video that I cannot embed, but you can go to this link and view it. It shows a family shooting video out of the top of their storm shelter as the tornado passed very close by in Moore. Once again, I must interject that it is not a good idea to do this. The shelter door should have been closed, as debris could have easily fallen inside, hurting or even killing someone.

Incoming images of the damage are devastating - and remind me of the destruction that I witnessed first hand when surveying the EF-5 damage in Joplin, MO:

As of this writing, 51 people are reported dead, 20 of which are said to be children. Unfortunately, based on the degree of damage and the number of people reported as missing, those numbers will probably climb. Our thoughts and prayers are certainly with the folks in this region.

As a professional meteorologist charged with warning people in the path of severe weather, I am heartbroken at the death toll here, particularly among the elementary aged children that took shelter the only way they knew how - crouched down in the hallways of their schools. The unfortunate truth is that in an EF-4 or EF-5 tornado situation, unless you are underground, there is no sure guarantee of survival.

The following YouTube video is an excellent illustration of the above statement. Just watch as this man emerges from his family's storm shelter to find that everything above them had been wiped completely away:

No doubt, his family would have perished, or would have been seriously injured, had they not been in a below ground shelter.

I can't get over how similar the scene looks to when I stepped out of the car in Joplin, MO 3 years ago. This video captures it quite well:

EF-4 damage is widespread, and I believe that evidence of EF-5 damage also exists. **Update: as of late afternoon 5/21/13, the National Weather Service survey team has rated the tornado EF-5 intensity.

Below is a map that shows the preliminary track of 5-20-13 compared to the last two major tornadoes in the same area:

Google has also released a street level map and current satellite view of the hardest hit area. First, a wide shot showing the overall track map with the satellite view embedded over Moore (click on map to enlarge):

...and then a tight zoom on that satellite view. Note the damage swath (brown swath of dirt vs. the more lush, green surrounding area):

On each image, the colored triangles note the corresponding EF-intensity damage in that area (blue, green, yellow, gold, red, purple represents EF-0 through EF-5 damage, respectively).

If we take an even closer look at the satellite view around the Briarwood Elementary School (where the EF-5 damage took place), you can see very clear evidence that the tornado was "multiple-vortex" at that stage, and that it produced several "suction vortices" (click to enlarge):

I have highlighted some of the more obvious multiple vortex tracks in yellow on the same image below, and circled some of the more obvious suction vortex marks in white (click to enlarge):

Multiple vortex, as the name implies, indicates that there was more than one circulation (often called "mini-tornadoes") spinning around inside of the primary circulation. A suction vortex is noted where the tornado "sucks up" a significant portion of the earth at that location. Grass, even asphalt and concrete are usually removed, and the bark will be stripped off of trees nearby as well.

This is a fluid post. If you have an interest in this event, please bookmark the post and check back for updates as more information becomes available throughout the next couple of days...

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America Isn't the Only Place with Tornado Troubles this Week...

2013-05-22T17:19:00.000-05:00

The above tornado, apparently strong, was captured on video in the Tula Region of Russia earlier today (U.S. time). As of this writing I do not have information on casualties.

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Severe Weather Threat Shifts Southward Into Texas / Lower MS Valley Today...

2013-05-21T09:25:00.000-05:00

As expected, the threat of severe weather is shifting Southward today, including a large part of the most heavily populated portion of Texas, as indicated in red on the above image.

While some severe threat may develop as early as this morning across far northern Texas, the bulk of the severe threat is forecast to develop and/or increase from mid to late afternoon in to this evening.

Below are radar simulations as forecast by the high resolution NAM computer

model, valid at 1pm and 4pm CDT today, respectively:

While its important not to take the forecast storm positions literally, this does give you a good idea as to where the bulk of the activity will be located at their respective times.

My main concern for the DFW Metroplex area (other than the severe weather threat itself) is the timing, which will be coincident or very near school release times across the area.

As we move forward into this evening, the threat of severe weather will progress Eastward and Southward, including the Austin/San Antonio corridor along I-35 by late evening. Below are the forecast radar images valid at 7pm and 10pm CDT, respectively:

Very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible with all severe storms across Texas today, as well as within much of the red shaded area on the severe weather outlook image at the top of the post.

One or two strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible, again primarily within the red shaded area on the outlook map at the top of the post. This threat includes the cities of Dallas/Ft. Worth, Waco, Temple, Austin, Shreveport and Texarkana.

Elsewhere throughout the severe weather outlook areas for today, large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats, with a few isolated tornadoes possible.

Please pay close attention to the weather if you live, work or have travel plans within the severe weather threat areas for today. Make sure to identify your best sheltering option, and listen for later updates and warnings.

As the severe weather threat for today is now moving into the heart of our primary client base for WeatherGuidance, I may not be able to post many updates later today. If I do, it will most likely be on facebook and/or twitter, so please follow me there if you aren't already...

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Tornado Watches In Effect Until 10pm...

2013-05-20T13:43:00.004-05:00

...for southeast Kansas, western Missouri and a large part of central and eastern Oklahoma. The extreme Northwest corner of Texas, in the Wichtia Falls area, is also included:

Very large hail (baseball size or larger) will be distinct possibility with thunderstorms that form within this area this afternoon and evening. Tornadoes are also likely with the most organized storms, and one or more strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible.

The watch areas include Wichita Falls, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Joplin, Springfield, Kansas City (although the threat there will only be for the next couple of hours), and the Columbia/Jefferson City area.

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the Western edge of the watches during the next 1-2 hours, and move Northeast. The activity will likely congeal into one or more lines or clusters of storms toward sunset, which could threaten locations to the East of the current watch areas late this evening and into early tonight. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat by that time.

The most dangerous time today will be from 45-60 minutes after any storm develops and matures, through about an hour or so after sunset. Similar to yesterday, we are likely to see one or more strong, long track tornadoes with these storms, before they begin consolidating into lines or clusters. Keep a very close eye on the cells that become well organized and remain relatively isolated from the rest of the activity.

Please make sure that you have identified your best sheltering option at home, work, school or recreational locations and be ready to move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.

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Significant Severe Weather Likely Again Today - Including Much of Oklahoma...

2013-05-20T08:02:00.002-05:00

Severe weather is likely again today, unfortunately in much the same area as yesterday (especially with regard to Oklahoma and southwest Missouri).

Some of the storms could produce very large hail and one or two strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible, especially within the reddish-orange shaded area on the above image.

The primary threat will exist from mid to late afternoon into this evening.

Please pay very close attention to the weather in these areas today...and check back here for a more detailed update around midday.

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Severe Weather About to Get Underway in the Plains...

2013-05-19T14:47:00.001-05:00

Above are Tornado Watches that have gone into effect within the last hour. Expiration times are noted in white inside of each watch box. Very large hail and tornadoes are possible with any storm that forms in these areas, and strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible, especially in the Oklahoma and eastern Kansas watch areas.

Already, one storm is strengthening rapidly right out of the box, almost half way between Anthony and Wichita, KS.

This storm bears watching and is moving in the general direction of Wichita.

I will post as many pertinent updates as I can this afternoon, but most likely on Facebook and/or Twitter rather than here on the blog (as I can get the word out much faster that way), so please follow me there if you haven't already...and most of all, stay safe!

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The Tornado Chronicles: Rozel, KS Tornado of 5-18-13...

2013-05-19T08:41:00.002-05:00

One of the most picturesque tornadoes that took place yesterday was near Rozel, KS, a tiny farm community in the west-central part of the state. The photo above was taken by Shalyn Phillips, and is one of the best "stovepipe" tornado photos that I've seen in a long time.

There are also a couple of impressive videos of the Rozel tornado that have emerged on YouTube. Caution: I have not 100% vetted these for language, but I think they're pretty safe:

The "nice" thing about yesterday's activity, with respect to tornadoes, is that it largely took place in extremely rural areas, with less than 1 home per square mile in most cases (sometimes 0 per square mile). I have not heard of any confirmed injuries or deaths, which is always a plus.

"Back in the day" when I would chase on a regular basis, I always much preferred to photograph or videotape a huge tornado out in the "middle of nowhere" vs. in a populated area, and I know most chasers today feel the same (if not, they should be ashamed of themselves).

Unfortunately, the tornado risk today, some of which is significant, has shifted Eastward into a much more heavily populated area (in excess of 7,000,000 within the highest tornado threat area). You can see my earlier post for details.

Please be sure to pay attention to the weather in the Plains and Midwest today and again on Monday. We'd love to see your photos and videos, but only from a safe distance and with no threat to your life.

If you have an interest in the Rozel, KS area tornadoes of 5-18-13, please bookmark this post and check back for forthcoming updates...

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Significant Severe Weather Threat Continues Today & Monday...

2013-05-19T07:35:00.004-05:00

Nothing has really changed since my detailed post yesterday morning. Severe storms, including tornadoes and very large hail, are likely again today and Monday, primarily during the mid to late afternoon and evening to early nighttime hours each day.

Some of the severe weather events will be significant, and with the threat progressing Eastward into a much more heavily populated region, there could be several major impacts that take place today and Monday.

Here is the latest severe weather outlook for today:

...and for Monday:

...both of which are largely unchanged from yesterday's forecast for the same dates.

It still appears quite likely that one or more significant tornadoes (i.e., strong to violent and/or long track) will take place this afternoon and/or evening, especially within the reddish-orange shaded area on today's outlook. This threat includes the cities of Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Joplin, Springfield, Wichita, Kansas City, Des Moines and Omaha.

In addition to the tornado threat, very large hail can be expected in this region, likely baseball size or larger in the strongest storms. Damaging thunderstorm winds are also possible.

If you live in the severe weather threat areas for this afternoon and evening, please keep in mind that this is particularly dangerous situation. Stay alert and make sure that you have (1). a way to receive weather warnings and (2). a pre-designated shelter or other safe place to go.

If you are attending a graduation or other public ceremony today, please be sure to identify the nearest shelter or safe area as you enter the location. Many public venues in this part of the country display a sign or other symbol so as to direct you to the best location, like in these examples:

Please be sure to identify this safe area as you first arrive to the location, because if something unfortunate happens while you're there, it could become quite chaotic at that time. There's no need to panic, and you won't have to if you already have a plan in place before there is any potential for bad weather.

Stay tuned for updates as the afternoon progresses.

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Severe Weather Update for Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas for Today...

2013-05-18T13:53:00.000-05:00

Above is the latest analysis of CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) across the primary severe weather threat area for today. CAPE is a measure of how unstable the atmosphere is, and the values in excess of 5,000 across Oklahoma and southwest Kansas are extreme by any measure.

A surface low pressure area is strengthening over the central Oklahoma panhandle area, with a dryling trailing off to the South and a warm front arching to the East then Southeast across central Oklahoma.

The winds are out of the East to Southeast along and immediately to either side of the warm front, which will provide favorable turning in the atmosphere to cause storms to rotate later this afternoon and evening.

Storms will likely initially form along and ahead of the dryline by late afternoon, and also along and North of the warm frontal boundary.

The latest run of the high resolution NAM model generally agrees with that scenario, as shown on the simulated radar forecast images valid at 4pm, 5pm, 6pm and 7pm today, respectively:

Tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds will be possible with severe storms in this region today, with the highest risk located within the red and orangish-red shaded areas on the image below (which is unchanged from my earlier outlook):

Please stay weather aware in these areas - and be prepared to move to shelter quickly if threatening conditions are observed or a warning is issued.

As I mentioned in my post earlier today, graduation ceremonies and other events are abundant across the region this afternoon and evening. If you are heading out to a public place, be sure to note your best sheltering option while entering the venue, just in case. Many public places have signs like these to help direct you to a safe place, but be sure to identify them ahead of time, not in the heat of the moment when you're likely to be distracted:

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Significant Severe Weather, Including Tornadoes, Likely Today thru Monday...

2013-05-18T09:51:00.001-05:00

As feared for much of the past week, a string of significant severe weather days will get underway starting today in the Plains...

The latest severe weather outlook for today is shown below:

The highest risk of significant severe weather will take place where the green (scattered severe storms) and red (significant severe storms) merge from southwestern Nebraska into much of the Western one-half of Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma.

Within this region, one or more strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible, along with very large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter. The significant hail threat will extend Southward into the red shaded region across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma as well.

The most significant severe risk for today includes the cities of North Platte, Goodland, Hays, Russell, Dodge City, Pratt, Great Bend and Woodward.

Thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and ahead of the dryline by late afternoon from western Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma. Activity should be well underway by 7pm CDT, as depicted by this simulated radar image valid at that time via the high-resolution NAM computer model:

By that time, you can see that isolated development is also indicated over northwest Texas as well. While one should not take the forecast radar positions as literal, it does give you a good idea as to the general areas where development is likely at a particular time.

The highest tornado potential will take place in association with any storm that is able to remain isolated and become well organized, mainly during the late afternoon through mid-evening hours. Once the activity congeals into one or more larger clusters of storms by late evening, the tornado threat will decrease - but a pronounced large hail and damaging wind threat will continue.

Tomorrow, Sunday, continues to look particularly ominous. This is mainly for two reasons: (1). the coverage and magnitude of potentially significant severe weather will increase and (2). the threat will shift Eastward into a more heavily populated region (as compared to today).

The outlook for tomorrow is shown below:

Once again, the highest risk of significant severe weather will exist within the red shaded area, including the cities of Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Wichita, Kansas City, Joplin, Omaha and Des Moines.

Strong to violent and/or long track tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds will be a distinct possibility within this region on Sunday afternoon and evening. This is a potentially dangerous and life threatening situation for the indicated areas, and folks living in the region or that have travel plans into the region should be on a high state of alert on Sunday afternoon and evening.

For Monday, a threat of significant severe weather will continue over the Sooner State, including the OKC and Tulsa areas once again:

If you live across the severe weather outlook areas for the next few days, please remain on a high state of alert and readiness. Review your severe weather safety and preparedness tips ahead of time, and make sure that you've identified the best sheltering option at home, work, school, church or any other location that you may be.

I am particularly concerned with the high number of graduation ceremonies that are scheduled across the region both today and Sunday. If you are in a large public arena or other venue, look for "Storm Shelter" or "Tornado Shelter" signs, like the ones shown below, as you enter the facility, that way you can move to a safe place quickly if severe weather threatens. Additional sheltering tips are offered in my free Severe Weather Safety: Seeking Shelter guide that you can download today.

Also make sure that you have a way to receive severe weather warnings no matter where you are. There are numerous options out there today, including apps or other links that you can load directly on your smartphone.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

The Tornado Chronicles: Granbury and Cleburne TX Tornadoes of 5-15-13...

2013-05-17T11:49:00.002-05:00

Thus far, 16 tornadoes have been confirmed across North Texas during the late afternoon and evening hours of May 15, 2013 as several supercell storms produced multiple tornadoes and/or tornado families.

The two strongest tornadoes took place just to the East of Granbury (in Hood County - as shown in the photo above) and in the Cleburne area (in Johnson County).

A preliminary track map for the Granbury area tornado is shown below. the first map is a wide view, and the second is a tighter zoom on the track itself:

The tornado to the East of Granbury had a track length of 2.75 miles and the damage is preliminarily rated at EF-4 intensity, with maximum winds of 166-200 mph.

The video below, posted to YouTube by "tsubasachan777" shows the tornado at about the time that the EF-3 to EF-4 intensity damage was being done. WARNING: turn the volume way down - the wind is very loud as it blows across the open body of water in the foreground:

The damage from this tornado is extensive and very impressive. Several frame built homes (not mobile or pre-manufactured homes) were wiped completely off of their foundations, which signifies high end EF-4 or low end EF-5 intensity damage (depending on how the home was originally secured to the foundation):

Numerous other homes were heavily damaged and/or completely destroyed in widespread EF-3 or EF-4 intensity damage:

A mapping of the Cleburne area tornado is not yet available (please check back to this post for updates). The Cleburne area tornado track was 8.5 miles in length and the damage is preliminarily rated EF-3 intensity, with maximum winds of 140 mph.

At one point it is estimated that the tornado was as much as 1 mile wide, as suggested by this frightening video (as the huge tornado is illuminated by nearly continuous lightning) posted to YouTube by storm chasers Bill Ford and Mike Casey:

This is the same supercell storm that made a near "U-turn", first travelling to the South/Southeast and then turning back Northward toward the Cleburne area, producing one or more tornadoes all the while.

While it is not unsual for a severe thunderstorm to make a right or left turn over time, it is relatively rare for such a dramatic shift in direction to take place in such a short period of time as we saw near Cleburne on Wednesday evening.

Numerous homes were also heavily damaged or completely destroyed in the Cleburne area as well:

The aerial footage shot by KXAS TV is even more telling of the damage that took place in this region:

There has been some discussion since the event that it was "not forecast" or "under forecast." While its true that the National Weather Service initially issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the region on Wednesday afternoon, the watch was upgraded/converted to a Tornado Watch shortly before 6pm, roughly 60-90 minutes before the first of the stronger tornadoes started to develop.

The overall meteorological situation on Wednesday very much reminds me of the situation that we saw two years ago in the Joplin area. The situation rapidly evolved during a relatively short period of time and became very favorable for intense tornado development over a relatively concentrated geographic area. Unlike the situation shaping up for this weekend in the Plains, where tornadic development appears likely several days in advance, it is the type of events that took place on Wednesday night that we seek to learn more about in order to increase their longer range predictability in the future.

If you have an interest in the tornadoes that took place in the Granbury, Cleburne and North Texas areas on Wednesday, please bookmark this post and check back for updates that will be forthcoming over the next few days...as additional information is received.

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First Significant/Widespread Tornado Threat of Season This Weekend and Monday...

2013-05-17T09:26:00.002-05:00

The 2013 severe weather season has been "slow" to evolve with regard to significant and/or widespread tornado activity, but I am afraid that's about to change this weekend, perhaps in a major way...

Below are the latest severe weather outlooks for today through Sunday, respectively:

As you can see, the threat of severe weather, with respect to both coverage and intensity, becomes stronger each day as the weekend progresses. A similar threat will exist into Monday over much of the same area indicated in red on the Sunday outlook, while extending a bit Eastward in Missouri as well.

Today's activity will be limited to the high plains, mainly in the form of large, damaging hail and wind gusts. An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Most of this activity will be limited to the late afternoon and evening hours.

On Saturday, the threat will expand Eastward, particularly across the Dakotas, Nebraska and Kansas. As the wind field increases throughout the atmosphere, the tornado risk will increase on Saturday afternoon and evening, particularly within the area shaded in green and red. Very large hail can also be expected in these areas.

So far, the "worst" of the 3 days appears to be taking shape for Sunday. Sunday is starting to take on characteristics of a "classic" severe weather outbreak day, with strong tornado potential across a large area, as indicated in red on the outlook map:

I am becoming increasingly concerned that one or more strong to violent and/or long track tornadoes are likely on Sunday, especially within the red shaded area. This enhanced threat of tornadoes includes the cities of Tulsa, Joplin, Kansas City, Omaha and Des Moines.

If you live anywhere within the severe weather outlook areas for this weekend, and especially within the red shaded areas for Saturday and Sunday, please keep a very close eye on the weather. Take a few moments ahead of time to ensure that your severe weather safety kit is stocked, and identify your best sheltering option in case threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued for your area.

"Stay tuned" for more information over the next few days...

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Severe Weather Back on the Table for This Weekend...

2013-05-14T08:07:00.003-05:00

After a quiet few days, the threat of severe weather is expected to ramp up for this coming weekend...

Below are the severe weather outlooks for Saturday and Sunday, respectively:

All modes of severe weather will be possible in the indicated areas, from large hail and damaging winds to a few tornadoes.

The primary threat will take place from mid to late afternoon into the early nighttime hours each day.

It's been a relatively quiet spring so far in most of these areas, so please take a few moments this week to review your severe weather safety procedures, restock your emergency supplies and plan out your best sheltering options for the weekend. That way you'll be all ready to go if severe weather impacts your area.

Stay tuned for more information over the coming days...

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Large Hail, Some Significant, Likely Today thru Friday...

2013-05-08T11:37:00.001-05:00

After a severe weather "drought" (relatively speaking) over the last several days, the southern and central Plains are about to become active again today through Friday, with some risk of severe weather also extending East into the Ohio Valley Region as well.

The latest severe weather outlook for today is shown below, which includes a threat primarily to the West of the Oklahoma City and Wichita areas:

A cluster of thunderstorms moved East/Southeast along the Oklahoma/Kansas border area overnight and early this morning. The decaying thunderstorm activity has laid down several outflow boundaries across southern Kansas as well as western and central Oklahoma. One or more of these boundaries may serve to focus thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening, in addition to development that is expected to take place further West along a surface dryline.

Large hail is likely with the activity today and early tonight, some of which may exceed 2 inches in diameter, especially within the green shaded area on the above image. Damaging winds and a few isolated tornadoes are also possible.

A pronounced threat of large to very large hail appears to be taking shape for tomorrow afternoon and evening. At this time the threat is expected to include the OKC Metro area, the DFW Metroplex and the Hill Country to the West of the Austin / San Antonio corridor along I-35:

Scattered strong to severe storms are also forecast to move East/Northeast into the Midwest and Ohio Valley Region Thursday afternoon and evening, with large hail the primary threat once again.

By Friday afternoon and evening, a threat of severe storms will settle Southeastward into the Austin/San Antonio area in Texas, on Northeastward into portions of the Ohio Valley and Northeast:

At this time there not any signals that "scream" tornado potential in association with activity in a particular area nor on a particular day. The thing to watch (as is often the case) will be for any storms that are able to remain isolated and become well organized before being taken over by larger lines or clusters.

If you live across the indicated areas, please remain alert and make sure to have a way to receive severe weather warnings and updates. Be sure to identify your best sheltering option, that way you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued for your area.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter: