The Original Weather Blog

More on Bitter Cold and Snow / Wintry Precipitation Prospects this Weekend...

2012-02-11T08:51:00.004-06:00

The above temperature map, zoomed in on the central Plains, is valid at 8am CST. The scale in degrees F is located at the top left corner of the image.

Some of the coldest readings are found over Nebraska and South Dakota, with -13 degrees at Chadron, -12 at Thedford and -8 at Grand Island. Those are actual air temperatures, folks, not the wind chill!

Temperatures are below freezing as far South as central Texas this morning, as the cold, arctic airmass settles Southward...

Meanwhile, inside the same cold airmass across the Northeast, a fast moving disturbance has resulted in the formation of a band of mostly light snow extending from near New York City on up into northeast Maine overnight and early this morning:

Generally light accumulations (a dusting to an inch or so) are forecast for the big cities from NYC through Boston, with heavier amounts from there on up along the Maine coast and into the Canadian Maritimes, where 3-6 inches are expected (and possibly heavier amounts into the Maritimes later today).

Another band of snow has set-up from northeast Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania and southwest New York, Southward into West Virginia. Locally heavy snow is possible at times today along the NY and PA shores of Lake Erie, with 2-4 inches of accumulation likely further South in the higher elevations of West Virginia.

Meanwhile, out West, a vigorous upper-level weather system is diving Southward along the California Coast this morning, with energy spreading out ahead of the system across the Great Basin region:

This system will spread heavy mountain snows into the central Rockies on Sunday, with widespread amounts of 6-12 inches in the higher elevations of southwest Colorado.

Another band of snow is forecast to set-up Sunday afternoon and early evening across the Texas panhandle and possibly east-central New Mexico. The latest run of the experimental SREF computer forecast model is calling for a band of 1-3 inch snowfall from near Canadian to West of Lubbock:

This same disturbance will press East by Sunday night and Monday morning, with a swath of mostly light snow and/or sleet forecast to extend from the Missouri River Valley along the Nebraska/Iowa border, Southward into eastern Oklahoma, western Missouri and northwest Arkansas. The forecast image below is valid 9am CST on Monday:

As you can see, mostly 1-2 inch snowfall is indicated across this region (scale in inches at the left side of the image). Locally heavier accumulations may set-up near the border with northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas by mid to late morning Monday.

The precipitation may begin to mix with light freezing rain or freezing drizzle during the day on Monday, particularly across southeast Oklahoma and into western and central Arkansas. We'll need to keep an eye on this in later updates...

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Cold Air Invading Central/Southern Plains; Arctic Blast on Way to Northeast...

2012-02-10T08:49:00.002-06:00

Cold air is spilling Southward behind a cold front into the central and southern Plains and Midwest this morning. The darker, solid yellow line on the above temperature map shows the location of the freezing line as of 6am CST. The temperature scale (in degrees F) is at the top left of the image.

This is just the leading edge of a very cold, arctic air that will invade portions of the country this weekend. The following images show the GFS computer model's forecast of the temperature near the surface at 12 hour intervals (roughly corresponding to the times of the high and low temperature each day) beginning 6pm CST today and ending 6am CST Monday.

Keep an eye on the darker purple shaded areas which correspond to temperatures in the single digits above zero (degrees F). The grey shaded areas within the purple show temperatures forecast to dip int the single digits to around 10 degrees below zero. The scale in degrees F is located at the right hand side of each image.

The first image is valid 6pm CST today:

...then 6am CST Saturday:

...6pm CST Saturday:

...6am CST Sunday:

...6pm CST Sunday:

...and finally at 6am CST on Monday, the 13th:

Note the punch of bitterly cold air across much of the northcentral Plains and upper Midwest early in the weekend, and across portions of New England late in the weekend.

There will also be an opportunity for a band of locally heavy snow from near or just North of the New York City area, on up into portions of mainly coastal Maine on Saturday. The image below shows the current HPC forecast of the likelihood for at least 4 inches of snow during the period 7am EST Saturday through 7am EST Sunday:

At least 4 inches of snow is likely within and near the red outlined area on the image, with lesser chances as you proceed into the green and blue outlined areas.

Another clipper will dive Southeast into the central and southern Rockies on Saturday night and Sunday, producing locally heavy snow across portions of mainly southwest and west-central Colorado and extreme northwest New Mexico:

This same system may also produce a swath of wintry precipitation across portions of Kansas and Oklahoma, into adjacent portions of Missouri and Arkansas on Sunday night. At the moment it appears that the precipitation will generally be light, but we'll need to keep an eye on this.

The overall pattern in the middle and upper atmosphere appears to be evolving into a much more active one as we head into mid and late February. I'll have more on that in a post later today...

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Rare Cold and Snow in Libya...Much of Europe...

2012-02-07T17:10:00.003-06:00

Unusually cold and snowy weather continues across much of Europe and the Mediterranean, with up to 3 inches of snow falling in Libya (in the Northern part of Africa) during the last 24 hours. The pictures above and below show the snow blanketing the city, which was the heaviest since February of 1956.

Over the weekend, snow fell in Rome, Italy for the first time in 26 years!

In addition to the snow, bitterly cold air has also entrenched much of the region. In London, it was cold enough to freeze over the fountain next to the Westminster Bridge this weekend:

Unfortunately, the cold, snowy and icy conditions across the region have also claimed over 350 lives.

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Quick Burst of Snow over Southwest Kansas / Northwest Oklahoma Today...

2012-02-07T09:54:00.002-06:00

A swath of light to moderate snow is setting up from the Oklahoma panhandle on up into southwest and northcentral Kansas this morning:

This is taking place as a strong cold front moves Southeast across the region. Light snow will spread Eastward into southcentral and northeast Kansas back into northwestern Oklahoma later this morning and into this afternoon as the temperature falls behind the cold front.

The last full run of the experimental, high resolution HRRR computer forecast model is calling for widespread 1-2 inch snows, with localized amounts of 3-6 inches in some areas:

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for most of this region today. Use caution if you must travel across the area. Gusty winds will also create blowing snow which will further reduce the visibility at times.

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Update on Disturbance Near Florida...

2012-02-06T11:36:00.001-06:00

The area of disturbed weather that was located just West of Cuba yesterday has since moved East/Northeastward rather rapidly, and will continue to pass just to the South of Florida today.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue today across southern Florida, the Keys and adjacent waters, with locally heavy amounts of 1-2 inches possible in some areas:

Middle and upper-level weather conditions are not favorable for this system to develop any further, so I wouldn't expect more than a rainmaker out of this system the way it looks right now...

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Area of Disturbed Weather Forming West of Cuba (Active Tropics on Superbowl Sunday?!?!)

2012-02-05T12:34:00.003-06:00

When you think of SuperBowl Sunday, the first thing that comes to mind is probably not a tropical weather system. After all, it is early February, right?

Well, an area of disturbed weather is indeed forming in the Tropics, to the West of Cuba and Southwest of Florida this morning:

The National Hurricane Center is closely monitoring this area for additional organization and/or development. An early look at a few of the tropical weather computer models generally track the system to the Northeast across the Florida peninsula over the next few days:

Regardless of whether or not the system ever obtains a tropical designation, rain and thunderstorm activity will be on the increase over central and southern Florida for the next few days. The latest image from the Key West, FL radar shows widespread shower and thunderstorm activity already spreading into the Keys this hour:

The HPC is forecasting widespread 1-2 inch rains across the Keys and south Florida for the next 2 days:

If this system does become further organized, rain is likely to become much more widespread and much heavier than currently indicated on the above forecast image.

Folks with interests across southern and central Florida should keep an eye on this system over the next 24-48 hours.

The last storm that I could find that was formally designated as a tropical system during the month of February (in North Atlantic basin) was the "Groundhog's Day" storm of 1952. That system began very near where this one is currently located, and eventually tracked through south Florida and up the U.S. East Coast.

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Is "National Weather Person's Day" Legit or Did Somebody Just Make it Up?

2012-02-05T10:12:00.007-06:00

When I first heard of "National Weather Person's Day" some years back I thought it was just a random day that had been created by one of the greeting card companies to bring in some extra cash before Valentine's Day. Or perhaps it was created by a shameless "Weather Person" somewhere that was just looking for breakfast in bed one day per year.

Alas, I was wrong - there is actually some historical significance involved! So, all of you history buffs out there - turn off The History Channel HD for a minute and check this out:

John Jeffries, circa 1784

On this date back way back in 1745, a man named John Jeffries was born in Boston. He later became a physician, serving as a surgeon with the British Army in Nova Scotia and New York during the American Revolution.

Not only was Jeffries a skilled physician and surgeon, but he also had a "thing" for the weather. He loved to take and record weather observations wherever he was stationed. In 1784, he flew the first known "weather balloon" to a height of 9,000 feet over London, taking readings on a thermometer, barometer and a hygrometer (a device used to measure humidity).

Rendering of Jeffries Over the English Channel

So, National Weather Person's Day was created to commemorate Jeffries' birthday and celebrate his feats as one of the world's first weather observers.

We've certainly come a long way in weather science since Jeffries' trip over London in the 1780s!

Weather balloons are now launched at least twice per day at over 800 locations all around the world. The data is then fed into giant supercomputers that perform millions (or even billions) of calculations per second and spit out detailed forecast models of what the weather is likely to do anywhere from one hour to 360 hours in the future. It is up to your local weather person to interpret that data and develop an accurate forecast so that you can plan your day, your birthday party, outdoor wedding, etc.

We now have sophisticated weather radars powerful enough to detect a flock of birds on a clear day and the rotating winds of a supercell thunderstorm about to spawn a tornado on a stormy day. Severe weather warnings issued by your local weather person (or persons) are saving lives, giving some 20+ minutes advanced warning in many cases.

So, if you're in the neighborhood of Amherst College today, be sure to stop by the Archives Section of the library and sign the guest book for the John Jeffries collection.

On the other hand, I guess you could take the easy way out and just shoot an e-mail or send a tweet to your favorite local weather person and thank him or her for their service today. They get lots of negative press when things don't go quite as expected (although that doesn't happen as often now as it did even 10 or 15 years ago), so I'm sure they'd appreciate some positive feedback on this special day that they share with John Jeffries...

Oh, and to my dear wife: how about waffles instead of pancakes next time?

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Andy Gabrielson - May You Rest (or Should I Say "Chase") In Peace

2012-02-05T09:17:00.005-06:00

The storm chasing community lost one of its most prominent members yesterday when Andy Gabrielson was hit head-on by a (reportedly) drunk driver just West of Tulsa, OK. He was killed, along with the driver of the other vehicle. He was on the way back home from chasing in Texas the day before.

This touching tribute was put together and posted on YouTube:

The "A.G." that you see on the map of Kansas near the beginning of the video was spelled out by the GPS locator's of approximately 56 different spotter/chaser vehicles that lined up in formation to spell out their own tribute yesterday evening. What an impressive tribute, indeed!

You can view Andy's chase videos by going to www.findthetornado.com, or by doing a search on YouTube.

Some are talking about setting up a college fund for his 3 year old daughter. I'll post any details on that as they become available.

**Update 2/6/12: A memorial fund has been set-up with all proceeds to benefit Andy's daughter. The link is here.

Important Updates to Severe Weather Preparedness/Safety Tips and Sheltering Advice...

2012-02-04T18:40:00.001-06:00

If you follow me on facebook, you already know that I made some very important updates to my severe weather safety and preparedness tips earlier today.

With the primary severe weather season rapidly approaching, I think this is a good time to start getting the word out regarding some important new recommendations for 2012.

The posts involved are shown here:

Creating a Severe Weather Safety Kit

NOAA Weather Radio Buyer's Guide

Seeking Shelter During Severe Weather

The changes to the "Severe Weather Safety Kit" and "NOAA Weather Radio Buyer's Guide" posts mainly dealt with updating new model information (on the radios), updating a few links, etc.

There are significant new recommendations made on the "Seeking Shelter During Severe Weather" post. They have to do with hard lessons learned during the Joplin and Alabama tornado outbreaks of last year. I've also added a section on making sure that you are able to receive weather warnings at night.

There will be additional updates and emphasis placed on this material as we move into the spring, but be sure to pass along the "heads-up" to friends and family members before severe weather threatens on a regular basis this year.

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Mid-Afternoon Snow Update...

2012-02-04T14:45:00.002-06:00

The above image from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) shows observed snowfall totals through 2:35 PM CST. You can see the 11.5 inch bullseye at Cumberland. Another 11.5 inch total was observed near Little Sioux along the Nebraska border. Otherwise, 4-6 inch totals are widespread in the green and yellow shaded areas, with 1-3 inch totals most elsewhere across the southwest and southcentral portions of the state.

Snow continues to fall across a good portion of the region at this hour, as well as adjacent portions of eastern Nebraska (where up to 10 inches of snow is on the ground across the Omaha area):

Areal coverage of the precipitation has begun to decrease over the past 1-2 hours, and this trend will slowly continue into the evening hours. Most of the snow is likely to end from Northwest to Southeast across eastern Nebraska by 6pm CST, and across Iowa by Midnight.

An additional 2-3 inches of snow may fall in some of the heavier snow showers between now and the time the precipitation ends, with an additional 1-2 inches likely in most other areas.

Light snow will spread into adjacent portions of northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri this evening, including the Kansas City area. At this time it appears that accumulation across Kansas City will be very light, likely 1 inch or less.

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Winter Storm Update...

2012-02-04T08:51:00.003-06:00

As expected, precipitation has changed entirely to snow over most of Iowa as of 8am CST, and is falling heavily in some areas. Meanwhile, snow continues to fall across portions of central and eastern Nebraska as well.

Below are zoom-ins on the Omaha and Des Moines area radars, respectively. Moderate to heavy snow is indicated by the progressively darker blue shadings on the images:

As expected yesterday, a band of locally heavier snow has set-up from near Omaha to the immediate South through Southwest of Des Moines (so far). Recent spotter reports indicate 2 inches of snow at Lorimor and 5.4 inches at Cumberland. It is still snowing, moderate to heavily, in these areas.

Meanwhile, back over the Omaha area 4-6 inches seems to be the "on ground" average through 8am CST, but it is still snowing in that region as well, and will for quite some time into the day today.

The latest run of the HRRR computer forecast model is calling for snow accumulation of 6-8 inches in the brightest yellow shaded areas during the period 6am to 12 Noon CST (click on the image to enlarge):

Using the scale (in inches) at the bottom of the image, you can see that a large swath of 3-6 inch snows are forecast through Noon from southeast Nebraska into southcentral Iowa.

Snow will continue falling into the afternoon hours as well. The latest run of the model shown above is not out past 12 Noon yet, but we can jump back to the previous run and take a look at the projection valid at 6pm CST this evening, which looks like this:

Needless to say, travel is highly discouraged across southcentral and southeast Nebraska into the southern half of Iowa today.

A Winter Storm Warning continues for much of the region as indicated by the areas shaded in pink on the image below (which includes both Omaha and Des Moines). A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the surrounding darker tan shaded areas:

The snow will end from Northwest to Southeast across the region this evening. This will likely begin in southeast Nebraska around 6pm CST, and spread across Iowa through the 10pm to Midnight time frame.

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Overnight Threat Shifting To Heavy Rainfall / Flash Flooding Across TX...

2012-02-03T21:43:00.000-06:00

As you can see by examining the composite radar image above (click image to enlarge), two primary bands of thunderstorm activity exist at this hour across Texas. One is located from the Dallas area on Northeast into southeastern Oklahoma. The other arcs from near San Antonio through Hays County into eastern parts of Austin, then Eastward through the Bryan/College Station area.

There is some threat of hail with the storms along the Red River at the moment, but heavy rainfall is quickly becoming the main concern.

This is particularly the case with the cluster of persistent heavy rain and thunderstorm activity bounded by a line from Cameron to Franklin to Madisonville to Bryan/College Station to Caldwell and back to Cameron (within the white circle on the radar image below):

Radar estimates indicate that 5-6 inches of rain have fallen across this region in the last 2-3 hours, and rain continues to fall at a rate of 1.5-3.0 inches per hour, particularly between Franklin and Caldwell.

Folks living in this area should move to higher ground if you live in a flood prone or low-lying area. If you must travel across this region over the next several hours, remember to never drive across a water covered road - no matter how shallow the water appears to be.

Meanwhile, further West, a cold front and dryline are advancing East / Southeastward toward the I-35 corridor at this hour:

Additional thunderstorm development is likely to take place along this boundary as it approaches the I-35 corridor from Austin through San Antonio toward Midnight.

Very heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning will be the primary severe weather threats with this activity. A few of the stronger storms may be able to briefly produce hail and/or wind gusts to near severe limits, especially in the early and middle stages of development from near Midnight through 2am CST.

Widespread rainfall of 1-2 inches can be expected, with localized amounts near 5 inches in heavy, persistent thunderstorm activity:

Once developed, this activity will likely continue Eastward into the areas already experiencing flash flooding across east-central and southeast Texas overnight, further aggravating that situation.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect overnight for much of southcentral and portions of southeast Texas, including the Austin-San Antonio metro areas.

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Storm Near College Station, TX Weakening...

2012-02-03T19:34:00.001-06:00

The severe storm near College Station has weakened quite a bit over the last 10-15 minutes. Hail is still indicated, though likely less than 1 inch diameter now.

Rotation was indicated to a point just Southeast of the College Station Airport (which is about 3 miles South/Southwest of the city), but that has sense diminished as well.

Gusty outflow winds of 35-45 mph are possible in association with this storm as is moves East/Northeast at 30 mph.

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Update on Severe, Rotating Storm Near College Station, TX

2012-02-03T19:16:00.003-06:00

The above image was just taken from the Granger, TX area radar (click the image to enlarge). The left half of the image shows the radar in reflectivity mode (indicating rain, hail, etc.). The right half of the image is a special indicator of hail potential, called VIL (vertically integrated liquid).

Large hail around golfball size is likely within the white and grey shaded areas on the right half of the image. This core of large hail will pass over the southern portion of College Station, and points South of there.

The track is indicated by the white line, with the current Tornado Warning shown in purple. Rotation is still indicated, which will pass just North of Wellborn and to the South of College Station.

Damage, possibly from a tornado, was reported in Snook (near the small tornado icon).

Seek shelter if you're in the path of this storm!

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New Severe T-Storm Watch Northeast Texas...

2012-02-03T19:07:00.001-06:00

The above Severe Thunderstorm Watch was just issued for portions of northeast Texas and extreme southeast Oklahoma. It is valid until 2am CST and includes the Dallas/Ft. Worth Metroplex.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are moving into the Western edge of the watch area at this time, and will continue Eastward during the evening and early overnight hours. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary threats with this activity, along with locally heavy rainfall.

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Isolated Severe Storm With Rotation in East-Central Texas...

2012-02-03T19:02:00.003-06:00

The above split-screen image was just taken from the Granger, TX radar site. The left half of the image shows the radar in reflectivity (rain, hail, etc.) mode and the right half of the image shows the radar in velocity (wind speed and direction) mode.

Strong rotation is indicated just North/Northeast of Snook (within the white circle on the right half of the image), and is moving toward the East/Northeast at 35 mph. On the present path, the rotation will pass just North of Wellborn, to the South of College Station.

Large hail up to golfball size is also indicated to the North of the rotation, near the bright red returns on the reflectivity side of the image.

If you live in the path of this storm, seek immediate shelter! A tornado could touch down at any time...

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Update on Central Rockies/Plains Winter Storm...

2012-02-03T17:41:00.000-06:00

Snow continues to fall in a swath extending from central Colorado into western Nebraska an extreme northwest Kansas at this hour, and is beginning to mix in with the rain on an increasing basis across adjacent areas:

"Future radar" imagery from the NAM Computer Model suggests that precipitation should be falling entirely in the form of snow by 10pm CST this evening across most of Nebraska, as well as northwest and northcentral Kansas:

The snow is likely to become heavy at times over northwestern and northcentral Kansas, into southcentral and southeastern Nebraska.

The same computer model continues to indicate a swath of 6-10 inch snow accumulation by Midnight this evening in a band from northwest and northcentral Kansas into southcentral Nebraska:

This heavy snow swath is forecast to expand and intensify toward the Northeast overnight, with a cluster of 10-15 inch snows indicated over southcentral and southeast Nebraska by 6am CST Saturday morning:

Heavy snow is then expected to spread Eastward into adjacent portions of west-central and southwest Iowa during the day Saturday. Here is what the latest run of the model projects for 12 Noon CST Saturday and 6pm CST Saturday, respectively:

The following images are zoom-ins of the same model forecast for total snow accumulation, centered on the Omaha and Des Moines radar sites, respectively:

The models have continued to oscillate North-South by about 50 miles or so with the axis of heaviest snow during the last few runs, so keep this in mind when looking at the above products. This certainly gives us a good idea as to the most likely areas to be affected by heavy snow, but particularly the Eastern and Southern extent of the heaviest snow over Iowa remains a bit in question at this point. Trends continue to indicate that areas both West and South of Des Moines are likely to pick up more snow than the city itself will.

The average of all of the various forecast models over the last 12 hours yields a snowfall forecast of 6 inches in Des Moines:

...and 9 inches in Omaha:

I tend to agree with the Omaha assessment at this time. I think the Des Moines forecast is on the high end right now. I think a 6 inch total is more likely to the West and/or Southwest of the city itself based on current trends. The key will come down to how far East the heavy snow bands set-up later tonight and early Saturday.

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Severe Weather Update - Central Third of Texas...

2012-02-03T17:00:00.001-06:00

Severe thunderstorms continue just South of the Red River, to the Northwest of the Dallas/Ft. Worth Metroplex at this hour. Severe thunderstorm warnings are shown by the red polygons.

Additional development is taking place back to the Southwest of the Metroplex, all the way back to the South of San Angelo. This development is taking place along a surface cold front/dryline, which corresponds with the Westward extent of low-level moisture, as you can see on the latest surface analysis below:

The green shaded areas indicate moist, unstable air (the brighter green, the more moist and unstable the air is). This will continue to fuel development across central and northern Texas as the frontal boundary moves Southeastward this evening.

You can see additional cloud towers developing along the boundary on the latest visible satellite image below:

The yellow arrows depict the drier air moving Eastward behind the boundary, and you can see the clouds towering up along the boundary as a result. Additional thunderstorm development will take place along this axis, as it moves Eastward, during the evening hours.

Once developed, thunderstorms will gradually move toward the I-35 corridor this evening. The northern end of the corridor, including the DFW and Waco areas will likely be affected by mid-evening, with the southern areas (including the Austin-San Antonio area) likely affected by the 10pm-Midnight timeframe.

Large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be the primary severe weather threats, along with locally heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, but the threat will not be widespread.

If you live in the middle third of Texas, including the DFW Metroplex, the Waco, Temple and Killeen areas, as well as the Austin/San Antonio area, please stay alert this evening and early tonight. Listen to NOAA Weather Radio or another trusted source for later statements and possible warnings.

Review severe weather safety and preparedness tips now, and have a plan of action, including a sheltering location, ready in case severe weather threatens your area later this evening or tonight.

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Severe Weather Update - Western and Central Texas...

2012-02-03T12:57:00.000-06:00

A cold front/dryline is advancing Southeastward across northwest Texas at the moment, as shown on the latest surface map and radar composite image above. As you can see, isolated thunderstorms are already breaking out along and ahead of the front over northwest Texas, both to the North and South of the Abilene area.

The front will continue Southeastward this afternoon and evening, approaching the I-35 corridor on the north end (including the DFW Metroplex) by early to mid-evening, and on the southern end (including the Austin-San Antonio area) by late evening (likely between 10pm and Midnight CST).

Thunderstorms will continue to develop along and ahead of the front as it progresses toward I-35 this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary severe threats, although isolated tornadoes also cannot be ruled out, especially in northcentral Texas where wind profiles are slightly more favorable for such a threat.

Very heavy rainfall will also accompany this activity into the overnight hours, with widespread heavy rain likely as a large complex of storms develops and moves East of I-35 during the pre-dawn hours Saturday.

If you live across this region, stay alert this afternoon, evening and tonight. Be sure that you have a way to receive warnings if threatening weather approaches your area. A NOAA Weather Radio with a battery back up or a smartphone application would be two good options.

Stay tuned for updates as this situation unfolds...

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Tornado Watch Issued NW Texas, SC Oklahoma...

2012-02-03T12:51:00.001-06:00

The above Tornado Watch was just issued for portions of northwest and northcentral Texas and far southern Oklahoma. It is valid until 8pm CST.

Please see this post for details surrounding the above activity.

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Severe Weather Update - Southern Oklahoma / Northern Texas...

2012-02-03T12:40:00.001-06:00

As expected, thunderstorms are redeveloping and/or gaining strength across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma at this hour. This trend is expected to continue as the afternoon and evening hours progress, with a threat of severe weather spreading East/Northeastward over time.

Large hail, damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes are possible across southern Oklahoma, northwest and northcentral Texas in association with this activity.

I would expect a Tornado Watch to be issued for this region soon...

Further North, strong to locally severe storms are possible by mid to late afternoon as existing activity intensifies and/or new activity moves or develops into the area from the Southwest. Large hail will be the greatest threat across northcentral and northeast Oklahoma with this activity.

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Severe Weather Update - Oklahoma...

2012-02-03T10:43:00.000-06:00

The Tornado Watch that was in effect earlier was allowed to expire at 10am CST.

A large complex of shower and thunderstorm activity continues across western and Northern Oklahoma, with additional development recently taking place across southcentral Oklahoma as well. Individual thunderstorms are moving Northeast, while the area as a whole is slowly migrating Eastward.

Locally heavy rainfall, dangerous lightning and hail near severe limits are possible with most any thunderstorm across the region through mid-afternoon. Strong and gusty surface winds are also possible with storms, especially after midday.

Thunderstorms may become better organized and/or intensify across the southeastern one-half of the state this afternoon, mainly after 2pm. This will take place as the atmosphere heats up, and a series of disturbances move into the region from the West. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats later this afternoon and into this evening. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, but is not expected to be the dominant threat.

If you live across southwest, central or eastern Oklahoma, including the Lawton, Oklahoma City and Tulsa areas, please remain alert for possible severe weather, mainly this afternoon and into this evening. Listen to NOAA Weather Radio or another trusted source for later information and possible warnings.

Please see my earlier post for more details on the severe weather threat in this and other areas for later today and tonight...

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Update on Winter Storm...

2012-02-03T10:09:00.001-06:00

Snow continues to fall across much of central and eastern Colorado at this hour, after dumping as much as 6-12 inches in some areas overnight.

Snow will continue across the region today, while spreading East/Northeastward into adjacent portions of northwest Kansas, western and central Nebraska and eventually increasing across much of southern and central Iowa by Saturday morning.

The following winter weather advisories, watches and warnings are currently in effect across the region:

The most dangerous weather today will be within the Blizzard (orange) and Winter Storm Warning (pink) areas. Widespread snow, heavy at times, along with strong and gusty winds which will create blowing and drifting and very hazardous travel conditions. Similar conditions will spread East into the Winter Storm Watch areas later tonight and into Saturday.

The latest computer model runs continue to indicate an additional snowfall of 6-12 inches across much of this region today. The image below is from the NAM computer model, and is valid at 6pm CST (5pm MST) this evening:

Here is a zoom-in of the same forecast model centered on the Denver area:

It is important to remember that this is additional snowfall beginning at 6am CST (5am MST) today.

By tonight and into Saturday, the heavy snow threat will spread further East across Nebraska and Iowa, with as much as 15-20 inches possible across portions of southcentral and/or southeast Nebraska by 6pm CST Saturday:

Here is a zoom-in of the same model on the Omaha and Des Moines areas, respectively:

Strong and gusty winds will create widespread blowing and drifting across these areas as well, with travel highly discouraged tonight and into Saturday.

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Severe Weather Threat Across Southern Plains Today/Tonight...

2012-02-03T08:31:00.001-06:00

Above is the latest severe weather outlook for today from the SPC in Norman, OK. Severe thunderstorms are possible within the yellow shaded areas on the image, which includes the cities of Tulsa, Oklahoma City, the DFW Metroplex, Austin, San Antonio and Shreveport.

Large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are the primary threats across the severe weather outlook area today and/or tonight. The threat of large hail will be greatest within the yellow shaded areas on this image:

An isolated tornado or two also cannot be ruled out, particularly with any storm that is able to become well organized and remain rather isolated. There are two pockets where this appears to be most likely at this time, which are indicated by the brown shaded areas on the following image:

Currently, a large area of rain with embedded thunderstorms continues to move slowly Eastward across Oklahoma, and into southern Kansas:

A Tornado Watch continues for the southern portion of this area of thunderstorm actiivty, over much of western and central Oklahoma, until 10am CST:

Hail and/or wind gusts near severe limits appears to be the greatest threat from this activity at the present time, although an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out.

This activity is likely to continue to move and/or develop Eastward over time, and may redevelop and/or intensity across portions of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this afternoon. Again, large hail and strong, possibly damaging wind gusts would be the primary threats, along with widespread locally heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning.

By late afternoon and into this evening, additional thunderstorm development is forecast to take place along a cold front and dryline feature that is forecast to extend from southcentral Oklahoma into northcentral Texas. This activity is likely to develop Southward along and West of the I-35 corridor, perhaps as far as the Austin/San Antonio area by mid to late evening.

Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats with this activity, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out with any particularly organized thunderstorm.

This activity is likely to congeal into a large complex of thunderstorm activity that will then move East/Southeast across eastcentral and southeast Texas tonight, possibly reaching western Louisiana by Saturday morning.

The potential for locally heavy rainfall will also be widespread across the region today and tonight. The latest rainfall forecast from the HPC is shown below, which indicates widespread 1-2 inch amounts, with localized amounts over 3 inches possible across the central and southern Plains into the Mississippi River Valley:

Folks living across the severe weather outlook areas should remain alert today and tonight. Listen to NOAA Weather Radio or a trusted local source for later statements, watches and possible warnings. Be sure to review severe weather prepardness tips in advance, and have a sheltering plan in place should severe weather threaten your area.

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch Issued for Northwest Texas / Western Oklahoma...

2012-02-02T19:42:00.004-06:00

Above is a Severe Thunderstorm Watch that was just issued by the SPC in Norman, OK. It is valid until 3am CST on Friday morning for much of the Texas panhandle, part of extreme northwest Texas, and parts of far western Oklahoma.

Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity across the Texas panhandle, and will move Northeast (and gradually Eastward) into the pre-dawn hours Friday. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary severe weather threats in this region.

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