The PolyCapitalist

Video: Niall Ferguson Interviews Peter Thiel

noreply@blogger.com (The PolyCapitalist) — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 16:55:51 PST

Video: Israeli Apartheid

noreply@blogger.com (The PolyCapitalist) — Sun, 19 Feb 2012 02:30:13 PST

As the U.S. contemplates joining Israel in a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities I wonder how many Americans are aware of or stop to think about Israeli apartheid? The topic of Israeli apartheid in occupied Palestinian territories is a controversial subject which doesn't get much public attention in the U.S. Below are some excerpts interviews with former U.S. President Jimmy Carter on the

Video: Alex Salmond's LSE Talk on Scottish Independence

noreply@blogger.com (The PolyCapitalist) — Sun, 19 Feb 2012 16:45:35 PST

Below is the video, and the podcast can be heard here. Salmond makes a pretty persuasive case and I wouldn't be surprised if, given enough time to make it, we see an independent Scotland someday. Speaker(s): Alex Salmond MSP Chair: Professor Paul Kelly Recorded on 15 February 2012 in Sheikh Zayed Theatre, New Academic Building. Alex Salmond is the first minister of Scotland. He was born

Video: Phase Three of the Global Crisis

noreply@blogger.com (The PolyCapitalist) — Tue, 14 Feb 2012 05:19:46 PST

This is from a year ago but still worthwhile if you haven't seen it. Speaker: Paul Mason This event was recorded on 31 January 2011 in Sheikh Zayed Theatre, New Academic Building As countries adopt competitive exit strategies from the global crisis Paul Mason surveys the political economy of a flat recovery. He argues that mainstream economics have still refused to draw the lessons

Photo of the Week: Athens On Fire

noreply@blogger.com (The PolyCapitalist) — Sun, 12 Feb 2012 16:13:16 PST

Tonight Athens burns The German flag is burned in Athens earlier in the week h/t Zerohedge and Guardian

Buffet Badmouthing Gold is Like Geithner Talking Up Dollar

noreply@blogger.com (The PolyCapitalist) — Sun, 12 Feb 2012 02:12:28 PST

Lebron hasn't been taking financial advice from this guy, I hope? The fact that Warren Buffet is not a gold fan is old news. I can't help but think about how, similar to the notion that it's never a positive sign for the currency when a finance minister feels compelled to publicly defend it, that perhaps it's a bullish signal for gold whenever Buffet feels the need to diss the yellow metal.

2012 Prediction #4: Romney Will Not Win the U.S. Presidency

noreply@blogger.com (The PolyCapitalist) — Sun, 12 Feb 2012 09:34:12 PST

It's looking like Romney has the Republican nomination, but I am very doubtful that he can carry the country in 2012 for a whole variety of reasons: U.S. economic figures are showing signs of life, at just the right time. Like Eichengreen, Dalio, and others, I think the next leg down in the ongoing financial crisis won't make landfall until 2013 at the earliest. There is a decided lack of

2012 Prediction #3: The Gold 'Bubble' Will Not Burst This Year

noreply@blogger.com (The PolyCapitalist) — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 16:06:56 PST

George Soros has called gold the "ultimate bubble". It's getting more than a little far along into 2012 to still be making predictions, but let me just state clearly that 2012 will not witness a collapse in the price of gold. Why not? I've written about this at length previously, most recently here. Gold is already off to a decent start in 2012, up $150/oz YTD, so it's perhaps a little unfair

Photo of the Day

noreply@blogger.com (The PolyCapitalist) — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 15:31:15 PST

Chancellor Merkel's likeness is used to advertise Portuguese spirit Beirao on a Lisbon billboard reading: 'Dear Angela, Portugal is giving its best. Seasons Greetings.' h/t AEP

Video: Goodbye, Geithner!

noreply@blogger.com (The PolyCapitalist) — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 17:59:21 PST

Should Obama be re-elected call me sceptical that we'll get someone better than Turbo Tax Timmy, but in the meantime lets all shout a collective Hallelujah! Video of Geithner breaking the news that he won't be around next term after the jump:

Podcast: Philip Coggan's Paper Promises - Money, Debt and the New World Order

noreply@blogger.com (The PolyCapitalist) — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 15:39:04 PST

Below is the podcast of Coggan's book talk, and here is a good review of Paper Promises. Speaker(s): Philip Coggan Chair: Professor Christopher Polk Recorded on 19 January 2012 in Sheikh Zayed Theatre, New Academic Building. The world is drowning in debt. Greece is on the verge of default. In Britain, the coalition government is pushing through an austerity programme in the face

2012 Predication #2: iTV Will Prove Apple's Waterloo

noreply@blogger.com (The PolyCapitalist) — Sat, 18 Feb 2012 17:26:47 PST

Should Apple's all but confirmed iTV make landfall in 2012 I expect that it will serve as a fitting high-water mark for the high-flying tech company. In this sense perhaps the Battle of Waterloo, which marked the once-and-for-all final defeat of Napoleon, is the wrong metaphor. Instead the Battle of Borodino, a contest which Napoleon won and allowed him to enter Moscow but also ultimately led

Video: Lawrence Lessig's Republic, Lost - How Money Corrupts Congress—and a Plan to Stop It

noreply@blogger.com (The PolyCapitalist) — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 16:16:07 PST

Note to video departments everywhere that the below video is a fantastic way to show a presenter and his/her slides. h/t Barry

Soros: Euro crisis "more serious and more threatening than the crash of 2008"

noreply@blogger.com (The PolyCapitalist) — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 08:49:19 PST

Link here.

The PolyCapitalist Endorses Laurence Kotlikoff for U.S. President

noreply@blogger.com (The PolyCapitalist) — Sun, 12 Feb 2012 09:22:48 PST

Professor Kotlikoff just announced that he's running for U.S. President! More on the announcement and Larry's plan to get the U.S. back on track here. And here are my previous posts about some of Professor Kotlikoff's great ideas.

Naked Capitalism Uses a Single Data Point to Disprove Financial Repression

noreply@blogger.com (The PolyCapitalist) — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 10:53:14 PST

A post over at Naked Capitalism titled 'Why Is The Term “Financial Repression” Being Sold?' by the Roosevelt Institute's Matt Stoler purports to "fact check" a statement about the negative effects of financial repression. That sounds useful, for as Stoler points out financial repression is much in the news these days. However, there's just one big problem: Stoler's fact checking consists of

Greece Just Publicly Threatened Its Trump Card

noreply@blogger.com (The PolyCapitalist) — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 09:11:07 PST

Greece just decided to start 2012 off by significantly upping the ante: "The bailout agreement needs to be signed otherwise we will be out of the markets, out of the euro," spokesman Pantelis Kapsis told Skai TV. Here's my previous piece explaining why in the European sovereign debt crisis Greece holds all the cards.

Prediction #1: U.S. Dollar Bears Will Remain On the Run in 2012

noreply@blogger.com (The PolyCapitalist) — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 05:25:25 PST

Since its March 2008 low the U.S. Dollar is up 13% against a basket of the world's most widely held currencies, including the yen, sterling, franc, loonie, krona, and of course the beleaguered euro. How is this a problem for portfolio manager Axel Merk, the self described "Authority on Currencies"? After all, according to Merk's written after-the-fact letters he claims to have traded out of

Eurozone QOTD: "You've got insolvent banks supporting insolvent sovereigns and insolvent sovereigns supporting insolvent banks"

noreply@blogger.com (The PolyCapitalist) — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 06:37:54 PST

Quote is from Bridgewater, which with an estimated $122 billion in assets under management is the world's largest hedge fund. Previously Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio said he didn't expect the next major crisis to hit until 2013, but it appears his firm is positioned for a rocky 2012.

Video: The Great Stagnation vs. The Singularity

noreply@blogger.com (The PolyCapitalist) — Tue, 27 Dec 2011 07:24:56 PST

For anyone who missed Tyler Cowen's presentation at the Singularity Conference from earlier this year.

Recapping The PolyCapitalist's 2011 Predictions

noreply@blogger.com (The PolyCapitalist) — Sun, 12 Feb 2012 09:51:18 PST

For those keeping score three topics I made 2011 forecasts on were: Rise of Android China's bubble U.S. Housing On Android, the verdict is in: The U.S. housing market officially double dipped in May and then continued to fall, so that call looks correct as well. The China prediction is a bit murkier, but here are some points worth noting: The Hang Seng and Shanghai stock markets

Will the Next Decade Be Dominated by America?

noreply@blogger.com (The PolyCapitalist) — Wed, 28 Dec 2011 05:49:40 PST

'Tis the season for predictions and STRATFOR's George Friedman has come up with a whopper. The first chapter of his new book has been posted here. The main provocative claims is that the American 'Empire' will continue to be dominant over the next decade. Will it? Here are a couple comments on Friedman's chapter: First, I would take some issue with simplifying the Great Depression down to

My $0.02 on Krugman's and Delong's Inflationista Potshots

noreply@blogger.com (The PolyCapitalist) — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 11:03:58 PST

Here's Delong's OH BOY: NIALL FERGUSON PRACTICING ECONOMICS WITHOUT A LICENSE DEPARTMENT And my comment (which for some reason won't load onto Brad's blog so I'm posting it here): I'll readily admit that I'm not an expert on CPI methodologies, and I am inclined to believe that the BLS has many well intentioned and highly educated professionals using defendable methodological practices. However,

Video: Kim Jong-il - 'So Ronery' No More

noreply@blogger.com (The PolyCapitalist) — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 02:03:37 PST

Video: Google's Zeitgeist - What the World Searched For in 2011

noreply@blogger.com (The PolyCapitalist) — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 09:27:11 PST