The Public Pervert Report

Perception isn't always the reality

2012-06-04T10:07:00.003-07:00

It's been a while since I was here and seen as though this is not a gambling one I thought it best to chuck up on the old blog spot. Of course for all my UFC and F1 stuff you can visit www.sportsnewsireland.com currently where I'm contributing.

An empty page. Turning that empty page into something worthwhile is like a metaphor for life. You start with nothing and the inputs and choices you make from that point determine the success or failure of it. Each life is a blank canvass and yeah some get a head-start by circumstance but there’s as many spectacular failures in that category as there is successes for sure if not more than someone that was brought into nothing and fought or thought their way to their goal. It’s a case of name your cliché really.

But that’s the dream isn’t it? That’s what we’re told we have to do by others. Grow up quick, learn quicker, earn more and get there by whatever means necessary. Once you get there god forbid you go backwards. Is that really what you need; what you want.. Like if this is the only rodeo are you going to measure your life by someone else’s requirements or your own.

Someone said something to me over the weekend that got me thinking and to be honest although to some it might seem like a mediocre target I’ve got to agree with it. No point shooting for the stars and failing when you can aim for an achievable goal that leaves you more than comfortable. I’ve spent 7 of the last 9 weeks in the freedom that was afforded to me by a redundancy from a job that I’d long since given up hope on progressing in or finding that level of comfort financially or enjoyment from the job I desired. Was I happy with the situation? Nope. Could I have held out for much longer? Definitely not. Am I happy for the folks that had some of the shittest news you can receive in March and now look like getting the packages they so richly deserve after they got royally fucked over a week before I got to leave? Fuck yeah I am but that’s another story and one I’m too far from to write or speculate about in a forum where I can get in trouble.

Here’s the key thing the remember. Reality and perception are two different things. All too frequently perception clouds reality and there in lies the romp. Perception is what magicians and bull shitters crave on my pedigree chums. As Houdini said “What the eyes see and the ears hear the mind believes”. Why is that of importance you might ask.. Too many folks just take that initial perception and don't go deeper..

Perception only gives an impression; it doesn’t give you the full story or history. In a way perception can be used as propaganda. Take the Stop Kony 2012 video where the charity and I use that word loosely was only sending a percentage of donations to the area they were collecting for or the video of that couple getting dumped out of a house in Killiney. How many people went on a do-gooder hunt based on the emotions that those videos implanted. That’s purely perception without knowing the total reality. How many folks later found the error of their ways with those causes and started to try save face with ridiculous arguments? Yes it’s good to fight for causes worth fighting for but as with anything in life you’ve gotta choose them carefully and know the facts. Now more than ever history is getting to be indelible. Regardless if you delete it or not; your whole history online post wise is available to people that know what they’re doing. It’s not like a white-board in school where you just rub off the errors. Don’t get me wrong people make mistakes but you gotta own up to your own and deal with it. If you can’t accept them you’re going to repeat them most likely. Same sort of shit happens every weekend somewhere that you’ll see a couple fight and stereotypically the girl will be crying post argument. How many do-gooders wade in without knowledge of what they’re getting involved in? It’s all perception. Yes there’s a level of empathy in it of seeing someone else in the shit but that’s the funny thing with empathy. People can be separated from it when they know the facts. If you knew ten minutes before that argument that the girl had cheated on the guy and he’d said fuck this I’m done. Would you feel half as sorry for that crying girl? Probably not.. Bad examples but I hope it explains what I mean.

That's why I hate the expression what you see is what you get. No it's not. By that measure Fritzl was a DIY enthusiast who spent a bit of time in his basement. Fred West was another DIY enthusiast. He loved re-doing his pattio. Any paedophile priest just took a little interest in his alter boys or girls. Go and fuck. What you see is what you get is something lazy people say because they couldn't be arsed actually looking into things. Challenging that perception they have.

It’s the funny thing with perception. It takes the minimum amount of detail visually and your brain tries to apply the maximum amount of possibilities. Reading this you’re probably thinking I’m a heartless bastard but I assure you I give a fuck in the right situation. Perception is a con artists wet dream. Like I said it’s something bull shitters feed off as it tends to be lacking in facts. It’s why scams and investment swindles will most likely always exist. Whether it’s some cock sucker telling you that they can give you back ten times your original investment or to a lesser extent all those ads you see online when your browsing. How many times have you got ads for big dick pills or fuck 3 neighbours inside 2 weeks popping up on the side bar. Even to an extent you can still have a laugh by turning on any teleshopping channel for their latest fat burning, muscling growing exercise programme with insert z-list celeb here _______________. Why do people fall for it? Perception. They’re given something visually that entices them. Let’s get this straight, it’s done with everything. Always has been, always will be. It’s a simple trick. It’s just aspirational and plays on what most people perceive as the expected or the needed. Buying a pair of Adidas Predators didn’t make you Beckham did they. Nor did buying a pair of Armani boxers change your love life compared to a pair of Dunnes Stores ones. You get the point. Most people get rid of these things as they grow older from what I can see. Yes I’ve a relatively small sample to garner from but it seems to be common thank fuck. It’s the same as you change hobbies; as dudes grow up and take up golf when their days of playing footie are finished; buying a set of Taylor Mades with some Titleist balls ain’t going to make them Tiger Woods. Well maybe these days you’d be a little closer with Tiger’s struggles. Throw on your red TW t-shirt on a Sunday, some fake tan and that’s probably as close as your getting. Reality is you grow tired of the bullshit as you understand how things are as opposed to how they look. As many of my mates have put it. It’s the night before and morning after. No I’m not talking beer goggles. Before when the make up is on and after the make up comes off. You could be looking at two different people. In some cases it’s just stripping away the layers! Or in the old days of shit fake tan and rain you were wondering if someone possibly shit the bed during the night seeing the fake tan on the bed sheets. You live, you learn, you digest things. It’s the same reason that you see a lot of successful bands or business bridge out of previous failures. Lessons learnt and applied. Of course some people never learn and we’ll usually get to see them make a re-appearance at the X-Factor auditions or some shit. Might even be a priest running across a Grand Prix track or come to think of it didn’t that crazy bastard do something in the Olympics too. London 2012 watch out for this guy:

I’m no genius and I’ll never claim to be. Yeah I have my prospecting moments with bets here and there and I’ll have my losses too. Goes back to that perception thing. No gambler has a 100% win rate. Not unless they were one and done. Anyone that says they do is full of shit and we’re back into that perception land. Even bookies don’t have a 100% win rate. One horse has to win after all. But there lies in the romp. Everything is relative.

You’re days are what you make of them and how they’re perceived by outside influences isn’t really important. It shouldn’t be. If you are doing enough to be comfortable in whatever endeavours you have. Making enough to pay the bills and live comfortably. What’s there to lose. Of course there is living the dream but who’s dream is it? If it’s the one you’re told you’re meant to have ask yourself is it what you really want. That’s the most important thing I think. You’ve gotta be true to your wants and needs. Everything else is secondary.

As much as I like having time for myself to do whatever I please I do miss getting to do shit in work. Although at 27 I can honestly say there is no way in fucking hell that I’m settling in something I want to do for the sake of it. I quit a job after two weeks for that reason and I’d happily do it again should the situation require it. Reality of things is for me that I’m overweight, diabetic and probably a candidate for any assortment of random health malodies resulting in my expiration date being inside another 27. Would I want to spend another 27 years of which none of it will be childhood doing shit I’ve no love for or interest in. Hell no. Life is too short. Not to be wasted. The fact that you’re here is a miracle in it’s self. Just remember you’re a one in whatever million chance with those other sperm-poles or whatever they want to call them. You could have been lost if your Da decided to jerk off earlier that day. That’s the crazy thing. If a different sperm-pole made it would you still be the same? There’s one to get as high as giraffe pussy too and think about if you want one of those brain hurts moments. All signs point to no as otherwise families would be clones of each other.

Not that I’m a John Lennon fan or anything; but he once said “I don’t believe in Beatles, I just believe in me”. I’m paraphrasing here and may be missing an only or something but the thing is you need to believe in yourself. You need to understand your own value and what you require to be happy. Too many poor unlucky fuckers judge themselves on other people’s criteria. Actually what am I saying. Luck is for losers. Get your shit together motherfuckers and live the life you want to lead. Time is running out.

UFC 141 Betting

2011-12-27T18:17:00.000-08:00

And here we go again. The last UFC was a disaster for me so I'll leave it at that and we'll move on to this Friday night's card.

Main card

Heavyweight bout: Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem
Lightweight bout: Nate Diaz vs. Donald Cerrone
Welterweight bout: Jon Fitch vs. Johny Hendricks
Light Heavyweight bout: Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Alexander Gustafsson
Featherweight bout: Nam Phan vs. Jimy Hettes

Preliminary card (televised)

Featherweight bout: Ross Pearson vs. Junior Assunção
Lightweight bout: Anthony Njokuani vs. Danny Castillo

Preliminary card (Facebook)

Welterweight bout: Dong Hyun Kim vs. Sean Pierson
Lightweight bout: Jacob Volkmann vs. Efrain Escudero
Welterweight bout: Matt Riddle vs. Luis Ramos
Featherweight bout: Manvel Gamburyan vs. Diego Nunes

This is one hell of a card to end the year and has a few interesting plays available in my opinion. There's the possibility for a few upsets and I think the bookies have massively overpriced 2 guys at least on this card.

Right lets take a look at the main event as ever first and work our way down the rest of the card. Here's the extended preview for the event should you wish to get a quick snippet of what is coming your way on Friday night.

Heavyweight bout: Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem

Simply put this is the biggest fight of both these men's careers. A shot at the UFC Heavyweight title is up for grabs and many questions hang in the balance about both men. One thing is for sure this is going to be 265lb behemoths colliding and there's a number of ways it could possibly pan out.

We'll start with Lesnar. What can be said about Brock that hasn't been said time and time again. He's a world class wrestler and former NCAA Division 1 champion. He's a former Undisputed UFC Champion and won the UFC Heavyweight title in only his fourth professional MMA fight. Not to mention he's survived nearly breaking his neck in a WWE ring trying to do a shooting star press. Most recently he's dealt with a second case of diverticulitis and had surgery to remove part of his colon to remedy the longstanding illness. This is one of the two big questions over Lesnar going into this fight. How healthy is he? Can he survive a Overeem onslaught?

Judging by the videos that have been released of Lesnar's training camp the answer to the first question is very. The bigger question is whether Brock has learned to take a shot to the face or not. We've seen it in his two most recent fights that he doesn't react well to receiving strikes to the face. Sure one of the opponents was the mallet fisted Shane Carwin but in the Velasquez fight at UFC 121 it was Brock's reaction to being hit that caused him to lose his footing and lead to the eventual ass whipping he received. That's now over a year ago though and in the Carwin fight we saw Brock get back up by the end of the first round and of course go on to beat Carwin by submission so there is a bit of light in that.

The biggest problem I have with Lesnar in that type of situation is his defensive guard or lack thereof. He's sort of turtled in both scenarios and flailed a bit trying to block strikes rather than trying to find some sort of defensive guard. Admittedly this might be because he's trying to recapture his wits as these guys aren't throwing pillow punches but it is something to keep in mind.

The major positive with Lesnar and this was re-affirmed as recently as 2 weeks ago by an outside source in Randy Couture. Lesnar learns fast and is steadily improving in all aspects of the game. With a year out who knows what tricks Lesnar will have picked up. His Ground and Pound game is scary as hell and he does have some massive power even if his technique still needs work. Witness his fight with Herring when he broke Herring's orbital bone and sent him head over heels with a punch.

And on we move to Overeem. The Demolition Man has had a storied career thus far going back to his days in Pride when he fought primarily in their Middleweight division (the equivalency of the UFC's Light Heavyweight division). During his time in Pride Overeem fought some legends of the game. Namely against the likes of Vitor Belfort, Lil Nog, Shogun Rua and Chuck Liddell. His last run at Light Heavyweight involved three losses incurred through strikes against varying degrees of fighter (Lil Nog, Shogun Rua and Ricardo Arona). Having found the cut to 205 increasingly difficult to make and feeling their would be a benefit in putting on some more muscle mass Overeem started working on building himself up to fight comfortably at Heavyweight.

Since making the move he has benefited massively. He's only lost once in 13 fights and currently holds a seven fight win streak following a No Contest with Cro Cop. Overeem has one of the best kick boxing and muay thai games in the heavyweight division and is a K1 calibre kick boxer. Correction he's a champion at K1 level. Currently holding their Heavyweight championship as well as the Strikeforce Heavyweight title. This is why Overeem becomes an increasingly interesting fight for Lesnar as his striking is extremely good and Lesnar'sOvereem has a nasty guillotine choke so Lesnar has to watch out for both his clinch and submission game should he get in Overeem's range.

One thing that interests me though is Overeem's ability should Lesnar get on top and this is where I think is key for the fight. No-one and I mean NO-ONE has stopped Lesnar from taking him down in a fight. Lesnar's power shot usually results in someone's ass hitting the floor. If Brock can control him on the ground like he did a much bigger threat on the ground in Frank Mir the fight's going to be over quickly or Overeem is going to be in for a painful night. Ask Heath Herring how it feels to have Lesnar on top of you for a few rounds.

Recommendation: Brock Lesnar for the upset victory in this one. It's a pick'em fight but I can't look past Lesnar's wrestling and dominant ground game. He's currently priced at 5/4 on Bet365.

Lightweight bout: Nate Diaz vs. Donald Cerrone

If there was a fight that has Fight of the Night written all over it this is the fight. Quite simply put you've two of the most talented members of the 155lb division taking on each other with some major implications in the division. The winner of this fight is probably only one more fight away from a title shot if not being placed next in line behind Benson Henderson.

Nate Diaz is a former winner of The Ultimate Fighter and is a member of the famed Cesar Gracie team. He is one of the most versatile fighters in the division and is happy to be standing and trading or working on the ground. He's got multiple wins by both KO/TKO and submission and any other night I'd say he's value to put a submission of the night bet on. With Cerrone that's not a clever bet.

Donald Cerrone is another one of the WEC converts that have made the 155lb division ever more difficult to navigate. A former kick boxer with an unbeaten record in 29 fights. Cerrone is another versatile fighter and comes from the Jackson MMA camp. The Cowboy has been on a tear since moving over to the UFC with hugely impressive victories against the likes of Dennis Silver, Charles Oliveira, Vagner Rocha and Paul Kelly. 3 of the 4 victories being stoppages by submission or TKO.

Recommendation: I see this fight being on the feet for the most part and because of that I have to go with the Cowboy Donald Cerrone. I'm a massive fan of both fighters but Cerrone has victories over a better quality of opponent and should take this one. Current odds are around 4/11.

Right that's the main event and co-main event. Here's the other plays I'm making this Friday night.

Welterweight bout: Jon Fitch vs. Johny Hendricks
Recommendation: If this was under any other circumstances I'd be making the Jon Fitch play but I think he's vulnerable after 10 months on the shelf with a shoulder injury that required surgery. Hendricks has a wrestling pedigree of his own and has some knock out power in his hands. At 15/8 he's a tastey prospect for an upset.

Light Heavyweight bout: Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Alexander Gustafsson
Recommendation: Gustafsson for me. He may be 2/7 but he's one of the top prospects at 205 and his grappling game is something to behold. Not taking the Janitor lightly. The only dude to get the better of him since his UFC return in 09 is Jon Jones esquire. Similarly Gustafsson's only pro loss is to Phil Davis.

Featherweight bout: Nam Phan vs. Jimy Hettes
Recommendation: It's my opinion that the bookies have vastly under-estimated Judo Jim's skills and for a guy with a 9-0 record coming out of the Jackson MMA camp you would think they'd know better. 2/1 is too tasty a price.

Welterweight bout: Dong Hyun Kim vs. Sean Pierson
Recommendation: Kim's judo game and grappling skills should see him ride out a decision at the minimum against Pierson. 1/4

As ever these selections and prices are through www.bet365.com and are correct at the time of writing. For the 6 fights I've got marked here it's a 41.52/1 shot. If you take out the riskiest bet in Hendricks vs Fitch it's still a 13.79/1 shot.

For those of you solely wanting a fiver bet to nothing on underdogs solely. I'd say go with Lesnar, Judo Jim Hettes, Efrain Escudero and Hendricks. That acca is worth 62/1 right now.

As ever happy punting my friends and I hope this will be a late Christmas present to both mine and your wallets.

Raison d'être

2011-12-24T18:30:00.000-08:00

As you can probably guess by the timing of this being uploaded and by the title if you've got any sense of French this is going to be a bit more serious than my usual babbling bollix. It's still going to be a whole lot of rambling and babbling; because other than rambling and gambling I don't do a lot in this world.

The older I get the more my memories become clouded and my recollection of things becomes a gaggle of other peoples memories of an event that they've regurgitated over and over to the point that it's the only memory you have. Someone once said that you're practically a different person every 7 years of your life and if that's true it would mean the likely Control, Alt, Delete buttons to your brain's task manager are going to have the end now options clicked on a lot of less useful information. We all have that moment of someone telling a story about us as kids that we don't recall or are unsure if that's how it went or not but over time these stories become our memories.

This point worries me as memory and recollections of certain subjects and people will come with the prejudice of the story teller (this is going to seem ironic me typing that shortly) should you subconsciously adopt their version of events as the defacto way things went. I sit here a bit bleary eyed as the thought enters my head that my memories aren't my own. Any time you've got that sort out of body experience version of a memory usually will point to you remembering someone else's version of events as opposed to your own. What worries me about this is that I'll lose connection with my memories and the people that meant the most to me over the years. I'm mindful at this stage that I've lost most of memories of my Grandfather other than those that I've had through other peoples stories. The same is rapidly happening with my Nana as well and it's something that actually has a drain on me. Those people had a huge effect on me as a kid. Without bullshitting I can tell you the most valued possession I have in this world is a boat in a bottle that was my Grandads. It's been in my possession for the last ten years since my Nan died. It's one of the few genuine memories I have that I could never work out how the boat got in the bottle. My Grandad used to joke that the mystery was better than the answer. Simple lesson that's still true. How many of us wished we were still unsure over the Santa question. It takes away the magic so to speak knowing. But in this digital age there's nothing except the reason of life that's more than a click away. Of course some assholes will still give you what it is.

It's weird. Their house has pretty much been gutted and extensions built on it but I'd still buy it in a heartbeat if I ever had the money to do so. I'm not a very religious guy but I'm a spiritual person and there's a lot of good times I've spent in that house as has the rest of my family. The same can be said of my Great Aunt and Great Uncle. All of my family on one side will know who exactly I'm talking about with this. Actually come to think of it there's a putter I was given by said Great Aunt that was my grandads as well. You can guess which club never changes in the bag for the same sentimental reasons.

Which brings me to the reason I'm writing this at 2 in the morning on Christmas day. It's sort of the best way to say thank you in a way to my folks. Sure they might never read this but that's not what's important to me really. I couldn't give a fuck if no one read a word I type. Without them two people and the people they surrounded me with as a kid I'd probably be a complete fuckwit and an absolute ass hole. It's possible; if you know me and you grew up with me. We all know a lot of dickheads and dudes that went down the wrong tracks and the only reason we didn't end up in the same boat is because we were thought to not follow that shit. Thought right from wrong. Sure we all got up to shit and weren't angels but it's our folks that put us in the position that when we could have gone down a bad path that we'd the balls to say nope not for me. Off you fuck.

I'm 27 years old and can honestly say regardless of their working situation or anything for that matter that I've never been left wanting for anything. Whether it was football kits, trips or whatever else. They always found a way. I'm at the age now knowing what they've done I've got to wonder what they sacrificed to put me in the position I am in today. I was pushed by them to always get the most out of the least. I've always been lazy so no-one is ever getting that extra 10% of work out of me. One thing my Dad said to me is work smart not hard and I'd rather do that any day if the pay is the same.

I'd love to write more but I'm tired and I think it gets the message out. By mistake or by design I'd not be the man I am today without the example they and the people they surrounded me with in my formative years provided. I'd be fucking lost without them.

Merry Christmas ladies and sirs.

Gobshites and the 7 drunks

2011-12-17T17:11:00.000-08:00

Yuletide greetings my honourable friends and fuck it seen as though it's Christmas; season greetings to my less honourable ones too. I'm bored again so I thought I'd do a blog and since it's the time of year you see more people hammered than at any point of the year we'll do one about the type of folk you'll encounter on any given night out. I'll call this gobshite and the 7 drunks.

Much like the beloved Disney flick Snow White and the 7 Dwarfs I find that most drunks in a group can be broke down to different categories. We'll go through the 7 drunks first and work our way to the gobshite element at the end.

Doc: This is the problem solver of the bunch. They can also be the problem member of the group if you're the unlucky bastard that gets stuck with them. Some are great and are the type of no nonsense motherfucker that can work their magic in the wingman department whilst being equally adept at diffusing a potential scrap because Dopey or Grumpy have fucked up (we'll visit those two in good time). The bad type of drunken Doc goes around like they're Doctor Phil.

What I mean by this is they'll stick their nose in just about anything whether they know what they're talking about or not and start waxing lyrically like the divine douchebag they tend to be. Usually found beside the messiest person in the room telling them how to fix their life and giving them bullshit stories to pass on their pysch101 ideas. We all tend to have a Doc in our drinking buddies so you're either lucky or very unlucky in that respect.

Grumpy: This can be one of the worst if they've any motor skills left after copious amounts of alcohol. The angry drunk is the ticking time bomb in the midst of your group. They tend to go one of two ways. If they score they're grand and put all that energy into whatever lady or sir they've found for the night. It's when they don't score that they're a problem. The smallest thing can set them off and then it's only a matter of time before the inevitable argument with anything ranging from a person to an inanimate object. In the past I've bore witness to the following Grumpy drunk behaviour. A mate breaking his hand after punching a wall because his girlfriend wouldn't talk to him after an argument. Another mate headbutt a dude because he stepped on his toes then have to be escorted from Bondi by 5 bouncers. The angry drunk isn't limited to dudes either. There's some aggro women too. I've on more than one occasion got to see a girl smash someone in the chops so hard with their handbag that the handles snapped off their bag. Entertaining yes. Impressive yes. Scared shitless yes. I leave these people to the Doctor Phils of the drinking world for the most part. Unless it's a good mate then you gotta get them as far away from whatever it is they want to hit. If they have sight on it it's like a lion hunting a wildebeast. It's game over.

Happy: This is the best kinda drunk. There just the one that's going to be laughing their ass off all night. Can be a target from the Grumpies of the drunken world but most definitely they're the one that you should be around. No stress, no bullshit. Just giggling away like they're high as giraffe pussy.

Which in turn brings us to another one of the unintentional comedy brigade. Sleepy:
We've all been there at some point. Whether it's at a session, in a bar, on the street, in a field or in the night club. We all have mates that hit the internal snooze button when they get enough gargle into them. These are the most bi-polar of the group. They're only a random action away from turning into Dopey Drunk or Grumpy Drunk. Said action is usually perpetrated by the gobshites of the world. It can still be funny but it still takes a dickhead to do the worst pranks on the sleeping drunk.

Anyone doubting the bi-polarity of said drunkards should view the below as Exhibits A and B to support this rambling.

And with that we're on to Bashful: Now there's 2 kinds of bashful. There's the mild one that's just quiet and keeps themselves to themselves whilst chatting away with folks whilst being a bit quiet. Usually has to be brought into conversation and once there they're chatty enough to not be completely socially retarded. Generally the person that's last to join a group but they tend to be good folk once they get the handle of any nerves they have in social scenarios.

Which then brings us onto the bad kind of Bashful drunk. This is the motherfucker that doesn't say a word all night. Tend to be the weird ass work colleague or friend that just can not find common ground with anyone. They also tend to be the leery bastard of any group that just stares all night at any member of the opposite sex. This type of Bashful can also turn into a Doctor Phil drunk as this tends to be the way they get people on side. Yet again another type that's most likely going to be seen close to the drunkest person in the room. Think Dwight in the American Office for the kind of person we're talking about here. Most likely to say something like but will not do anything about it ever.

Which brings us to Sneezy: These are our drunk friends that find better ways of being by living through chemistry. Most commonly these days it's the ones that will be inserting any random assortment of legal highs or illegal highs up their nostrils. No pill heads are not included in the list. They generally tend to be blackout dopey drunks. The Sneezy drunk tend to rock it like Rick James bitch or Charlie Sheen.

In the winter months it can also be the one that's out with a cold so don't get them mixed up. After all who the fuck in Ireland doesn't go drinking when they're on anti-biotics whether it's an infection or the dreaded man flu.

Many a lad has braved the extremes and been on the front line drinking when the dreaded man flu has had them incapacitated for all other activities. As long as they don't pass the disease by sneezing in your pint you'll be alright.

Which brings us to Dopey: This can be either a harmless visitor to langeredland or a potential news story waiting to happen. The harmless end of the scale is the person that gets too locked to talk properly but keeps their major capabilities intact. They can still walk and all the usual functions just slur their speech like they're the victim of a temporary paralysis of their tongue. The dangerous end of the scale is that drunk that is not quite Sleepy drunk and not quite Grumpy drunk. They're sort of in between and usually it's the type of girl or guy that you've seen falling into people or all over the dancefloor. Usually have wet patches on their clothes from any variety of Dopey events. These can be but are not limited to spilt drinks, vomit or other bodily fluids.

My favourite kind of Dopey drunk is the blackout dopey drunk. This is the one that gets absolutely twisted and has no recollection of anything. You could show them pictures the next day and they'll be dumbfounded. Anyone who wants to go look for the Rogan drunk Eddie blog will understand what I mean. It's available through http://blog.joerogan.net/archives/1619.

This brings us on to our final batch of person to watch out for. The gobshites.

These are anywhere and everywhere. From the average nightclub to every festival campsite. These are the retards that take things just that step too far. Yes they sometimes can be funny but once they've got that joke that gets a giggle they'll keep repeating it until they cross the line. Unfortunately they won't recognise they crossed the line and will keep going despite the joke having lost it's lustre and being past the point where it's even funny.

There's also the leery gobshite. Sort of like the bashful drunk but they're much worse. These can take the form of the stalker kind who will follow a girl around like their shadow all night.

They also have an ability of chasing down every woman in a nightclub in the search for Ms. Drunk and Desperate. These cocksuckers are date rapists in waiting. They will happily be rejected by every woman in the building only to start all over again. They're that sort of dude that thinks receiving a text from someone or a girl saying hi means they're in. Retards of the highest extreme.

Don't forget the cross eyed guys as well. They're the ninja perverts of the leery bastard group. That wonky eye has a target field too. Homing in like an F-18 in whatever they're looking at.

The really bad thing about the gobshites is they don't necessarily have to have anything in them to act like dickheads. They just are. It's like it's built into them. They're the same sort of fuckwits that will do something stupid and not have any thought for what they're doing. Case in point the San Francisco Tiger incident.

The gobshite is the walking epitome of my last blog. Just remember you can't fix stupid. Stupid is forever. Thankfully for all of us; the drunk descriptions above are only a temporary thing. Unfortunately for the gobshites they're the epitome of the stupid people that are outfucking the smart people.

Feel free to add any other types of drunks or gobshites you can think of. I'm always up for a bit of entertainment on that front.

Cheers for reading this mess. Just another week til Christmas now and only another 12 days until the next UFC. Thank fuck says I.

You Can't Fix Stupid

2011-12-15T17:44:00.000-08:00

Alright after the disaster that was UFC140 for my UFC blog and seen as though it's a good two weeks before the next fight card I thought I'd shoot the shit about some of the things I love and some of the things that just in general piss me off no end.

As any of you who know me will know; probably the most used word in my vocabulary is retard. Now to all those politically correct save the planet; you can't say that gobshites who believe that's an insensitive word. It is not. The only reason it's an insensitive word is because that is the meaning you have given it yourself. Very simple when you stop to think about it. This is the wonders of linguistics my overly sensitive friend. A lot of words have multiple meanings and if you want to actually look at the definition of the word you'll see it means to make slow, or to hinder or impede. It's just the same as calling someone a moron or an idiot but it gets the point across a hell of a lot quicker because behind the P.C. bullshit that a lot of people like to hide behind it's what they're thinking anyway. You can't really get offended unless you've already decided that's what the word means. So in reality you understand the context but you're being a cunt about it. It's just dumb. People are getting more stupid by the day.

It's usually the same people that will complain about foul language.. Ooh someone said fuck.. Like OMG Holy S-H-I-T you can't say that. Actually add that to the list. People who spell out a so-called curse word. That's the height of retardom (if that's not a word it is now) there my friends. We're not having a spelling test.. Do you do that with any other words? If you do please don't talk to me. I gave up listening to other people spell in 2nd class. It was annoying then and it sure as hell isn't worth now. Seriously.. For fuck sake. 30 years ago you couldn't buy a condom in Ireland; look how far we've come and yet some words are still off limit to people. Here's my thing with language and anyone that's watched the excellent Fuck documentary (no not a lovers guide although that is pretty awesome too for a retard like me ;) lessons learnt and what not.. Yes it's helped leave a few unlucky ladies slightly less unsatisfied than they may have been otherwise) will sort of understand where I'm coming from. Fuck in a way is a word that transcends a lot of boundaries and is a great word. It conveys a message and has hundreds of different meanings depending on how you use it.

Case in point read these 2 sentences and tell me which gets the message across quicker.

a) He's an empty vessel.
b) He's a fucking retard.
Both mean you're an idiot. Just b gets the message across with an exclamation mark without using one.

See where I'm going with this? Simply put I don't want to have to explain something if someone doesn't get it. For me conversation is like fractions. It's finding the lowest common denominator and rolling with it. I'm at the point where I've zero interest in being careful with the words I use because someone has a negative thought on their meaning. That's you're problem not mine. All I want to do is get the message across in any way that anyone will understand.

A similar situation happens with the word cunt because some people think it's derogatory to women. In fairness we all know cunts and we're happy to think they're cunts so why not use the word. It's a hell of a word and it can be used for women or men. It's a great word. Really is. It's like when dickhead or asshole is not strong enough to describe that person in my opinion. Cunt seems to be the next rung on the ladder and yet again it's something someone understands straight away. No questions asked it's like boom they get it.

There's a great stand up piece by Joe Rogan about the use of cunt that I hope you'll enjoy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JuKCZxhVGGQ

Which brings me to why I got to thinking about this subject again and thought it best to put it in writing so that it's as clear as I can make it. It's December 16th 2011 and to say the words are out of line really is silly. Come on to fuck. Grow up. It's not that difficult to understand and like you've a problem when you hear them in a movie. I've never seen anyone walk out of a flick when they hear the word fuck or cunt but I've sure as hell got some glaring you can't say that looks when I've decided to use them in a sentence. By no means am I stupid but I'll be seriously disappointed if someone is of the opinion that them struggling to find a word with a few extra syllables in the hope that it makes them sound smart is a better means than using a simpler term that is easy to understand. Seriously what's the problem?

Listen to the genius that is George Carlin on the subject of the 7 words you can't say on TV or Radio and you'll soon understand the errors of your path.

Anyway that's my rant over for now. So long story short don't be retarded and if you're offended by that. Go fuck yourself for being so silly. You can do many things in this life but simply put by the great philosopher Ron White "You Can't Fix Stupid. Stupid is forever!"

UFC 140 Betting

2011-12-09T15:37:00.000-08:00

Ok as always lets start this thing by going back to the last fight card. Once again we were close to a perfect night but Cung Le let us down. On the brightside if you were playing each fight individually you should have had a healthy enough profit come the end of the night.

It's title fight time this weekend in Toronto so lets take a look at what is one hell of a card.

The card is as follows (please note the order of the fights may be altered).

Preliminary card (Facebook)

Lightweight bout: Mitch Clarke vs. John Cholish
Welterweight bout: Rich Attonito vs. Jake Hecht
Lightweight bout: Mark Bocek vs. Nik Lentz

Preliminary card (televised)

Bantamweight bout: Yves Jabouin vs. Walel Watson
Lightweight bout: John Makdessi vs. Dennis Hallman
Middleweight bout: Jared Hamman vs. Constantinos Philippou
Light Heavyweight bout: Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Igor Pokrajac

Main card

Featherweight bout: Mark Hominick vs. Chan Sung Jung
Welterweight bout: Claude Patrick vs. Brian Ebersole
Light Heavyweight bout: Tito Ortiz vs. Antônio Rogério Nogueira
Heavyweight bout: Frank Mir vs. Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira
Light Heavyweight Championship bout: Jon Jones (c) vs. Lyoto Machida

As ever we'll start with the main event of the evening and work our way through the card.

Light Heavyweight Championship bout: Jon Jones (c) vs. Lyoto Machida

This was meant to be the grudge match of the year in Jonny Bones Jones taking on Suga Rashad Evans but a knee injury has robbed us of that and left us with an intriguing match up between two of the most elusive guys at 205lbs.

It seems crazy that it's only 2 and a half years ago that people were talking about the start of the Machida era after Lyoto took Rashad Evans apart on the feet to claim the Light Heavyweight title. Since then Machida hit the road block of two stunning performances from Shogun Rua to see his title taken off him in the most vicious of circumstances. After 16 fights undefeated Machida had finally received his first official loss via a KO. I say official as a lot of people including myself scored the first fight to Rua who at the time was a 5-1 underdog. Machida then suffered a razor thin decision loss the Quentin Rampage Jackson in a fight that could have gone either way on the score card. It was an advertisement for why 10-10 rounds should be allowed.

During Machida's unbeaten run; one thing was singled out as his biggest weapon. His elusiveness. He was the John Dillinger of MMA in a way. Always on the run but always effective when on the job. He just seemed to rarely if ever get hit and was able to get in and out utilizing his excellent foot work from years of karate. It was this that allowed Machida to land strikes from the outside and frustrate opponents into fighting his type of fight. His accuracy and speed make him a dangerous opponent for just about anyone. He's also got some excellent trips and enough stamina to keep the pace up for 5 rounds. His biggest issue appears to be when someone can match his pace or clinch with him. Going into this fight that's not a good thing.

Here's why. Mr. Jones is not only the youngest UFC Light Heavyweight champion in history. He is also one of the best prospects on the planet. The kid is amazing. He always seems to add new facets to his game and with his 83 inch reach he has enough in his arsenal to keep fighters outside of range for them to land any damage. Other than the reach advantage Jones has some of the best wrestling in the division. He's rag dolled Matt Hammill, Stephan Bonner, Ryan Bader and Vladimir Matsuchenko not to mention put a beating on Mauricio Shogun Rua and Rampage Jackson.

Add to this that he has one of the most unpredictable striking games in the division and a submission repetoire that is still grown and that's most recently seen him end Rampage's record of having never been finished in the UFC and you will be building a picture of why I think Machida is in for a difficult night.

Recommendation: Jonny Bones Jones to retain his belt. I'm thinking this will be a TKO via ground and pound. Bones tends to take a round to get his timing so I'd say rounds 2 or 3 are the most likely. If Machida is to win this he needs to to do it early.. Otherwise this is Bones fight in my opinion.

Heavyweight bout: Frank Mir vs. Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira
There's a lot of bad blood in this particular rematch stemming from Mir's thoughts on Nogueira's announcement regarding his staph infection prior to the original fight back at UFC 92.

Let's get this straight. Both fighters are legends of the game in my opinion. Mir and Nogueira stretch back to a previous era of heavyweights when some where overweight journey men and some were steroid freaks out for a pay day in Japan. Both have held titles in the UFC and have notable victories over recent previous champions in the UFC heavyweight division (Mir over Brock Lesnar and Nogueira most recently over Randy Couture).

Both are noted as having excellent ground games both from their back and on top. Nogueira is known for utilizing his ground game primarily after taking damage as he did in Pride. Mir was one of the first notable American Heavyweights to utilize a BJJ game to his advantage. Most notably when he snapped Tim Sylvia's arm or when he knee barred Brock Lesnar.

Nogueira has a guillotine choke vicotry over Sylvia and in that fight claimed the interim UFC Heavyweight title which he then in turn lost to Mir back at UFC 92.

Both have decent stand up and I think it's here that the fight is most likely to be decided. Obviously in the first fight Mir completely owned Big Nog in the stand up area but this is a bigger question going into this fight. Will there be a difference in this aspect or will it be more of the same. I tend to think it will be a more even fight and with the prices available I fancy an upset. Remember Nog trains with 2 excellent boxers in his twin brother and Junior Dos Santos. His biggest issue in my opinion is his lack of head movement.

Having watched the weigh ins and having seen Mir tip the scales at 260lbs I have to believe that this may play into Nogueira's hands as Mir will be a slower target with the extra bulk in my opinion.

Recommendation: Big Nog for the upset. His most recent performance against Schaub was a lot more impressive to me than what Mir has done against Roy Nelson and Cro Cop in his most recent fights.

Here's an extended preview of the fights for you to enjoy and it may help you make up your mind regarding whether or not to keep with my tips.

Other Picks:
Featherweight bout: Mark Hominick vs. Chan Sung Jung
Recommendation: Hominick
Lightweight bout: John Makdessi vs. Dennis Hallman
Recommendation: Makdessi
Light Heavyweight bout: Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Igor Pokrajac
Recommendation: Soszynski
Lightweight bout: Mark Bocek vs. Nik Lentz
Recommendation: Bocek
Lightweight bout: Mitch Clarke vs. John Cholish
Recommendation: Cholish

I've had to go to http://www.paddypower.com/bet/ufc-mma for odds this time as Bet365 is not giving odds on everything. The selections above will get you 21/1 at this time. If you take Big Nog out it's 7/1.

As ever happy punting folks.

UFC 139 Betting

2011-11-17T14:17:00.000-08:00

And here we go.

Last time out I was badly hit by the Kid Yamamoto loss on the accumalator end of things but the JDS knockout and the wins for Poirier, Peralta and Henderson more than made up for it. Again it was a close run thing for me but the strike rate remains around the north side of 80% so I hope those of you that are reading are making some money.

I've not much time to run through this so it's a much shorter blog than I would like to have gone with.

So lets get this thing started for UFC 139.

Here's the UFC's own extended preview for the event.

Here's the full fight card for UFC139. I'm only going to take 5 or 6 fights from the card as I believe there is a few too many fights that could go either way.

Main card

Light Heavyweight bout: Maurício Rua vs. Dan Henderson
Middleweight bout: Wanderlei Silva vs. Cung Le
Bantamweight bout: Urijah Faber vs. Brian Bowles
Welterweight bout: Martin Kampmann vs. Rick Story
Light Heavyweight bout: Stephan Bonnar vs. Kyle Kingsbury

Preliminary card (televised)

Light Heavyweight bout: Ryan Bader vs. Jason Brilz
Middleweight bout: Tom Lawlor vs. Chris Weidman

Preliminary card (Facebook)

Bantamweight bout: Michael McDonald vs. Alex Soto
Lightweight bout: Gleison Tibau vs. Rafael dos Anjos
Bantamweight bout: Miguel Torres vs. Nick Pace
Welterweight bout: Matt Brown vs. Seth Baczynski
Lightweight bout: Shamar Bailey vs. Danny Castillo

As ever we'll kick this off with the main event.

Light Heavyweight bout: Maurício Rua vs. Dan Henderson

4 and a half years seems such a short time but that's how long that has passed since these two would have been respectively the number 1 contender and champion of the Pride middleweight division (93kg). Unfortunately for Pride fans the company disbanded shortly after Henderson beat Wanderlei Silva and we would all have to wait until November 2011 for this match up to happen.

Both men are legends in the sport. Shogun being responsible for giving Lyoto Machida his first professional loss in their second fight. He did this with a vicious TKO following the highly disputed original fight which the majority of people scored in Shogun's favour only for the judges scorecards to disagree. Since then there has been some major questions relating Shogun's condition and specifically the condition of his knees which have seen Rua have several surgeries over the years to varying degrees of success if his performances are to be the indicators of their success. This again is a question mark area as was seen in the fight with Jones where Shogun looked particularly out of shape and gassed badly. Of course Jones pressing and pushing the pace didn't help the matter but it's an area of concern as other than the original Machida fight Shogun's conditioning has been questionable. What's not in question is the mans talent. He is one of the best strikers on the planet and has a vicious array of knees and kicks that can leave any opponent in a daze. Not too mention the speed Shogun can go about his work when he is fully fit. This camp has largely been done in private so stories relating to Shogun's conditioning and injuries have been scarce. Simply put a fully fit Shogun is a dangerous proposition for just about anyone at 205lbs. The problem is it's a long time since we've seen this. After his KO victory against Forrest Griffin in his most recent bout we can not be sure if the real Shogun is ready to show up.

And so we move on to his opponent Dan Henderson. Hendo probably has one of the most famous KO victories in history when he knocked out Michael Bisping at UFC100.

Shortly after that fight Hendo moved to Strikeforce to challenge Jake Shields for that organisations middleweight title. He came up short against Shields and soon after returned to the 205lbs division. Since moving back up to 205lbs Hendo has been impressive and has enjoyed something of a career resurrection including most recently a victory against the Last Emperor Fedor at heavyweight. That victory for Henderson was massive and made him a much sought after free agent as his contract was up for negeotiation. Strikeforce having been purchased by Zuffa now lead to an interesting situation. Did they try keep Hendo in Strikeforce or bring him back to the UFC? Following the twitter discussion was half the fun. It lead to the now infamous "fatso's gotta go talk to baldy" tweet that showed the bad blood of their previous contract negeotiations that lead to Hendo jumping ship had been forgotten.

Henderson finds himself coming off the back of 3 successive wins. One at heavyweight when he knocked out Fedor and two fights at lightheavyweight against Sobral and Cavalcante respectively. All 3 of these fights have ended with a Henderson KO or TKO. Just in case your wondering the last time Henderson lost a fight at 205 was against Rampage Jackson in 2007. Henderson is a grinder and an Olympic calibre wrestler. He's got massive KO power with his right hand and if he connects it will be goodnight for most opponents. Hendo also has a granite chin and has never lost by TKO or KO.

This fight makes one hell of a match up even if it is a few years later than most of us would have liked. The big questions in the fight are whether Shogun's conditioning is up to scratch and whether Shogun may try and use his under-rated ground game. Personally speaking I see the clinch being crucial in this fight. Who ever is in control of it is likely to be victorious.

For Shogun to win this he has to have a similar strategy to his fight with Machida that he gets in and out. Shogun's tendancy to drop his hands when landing leg kicks may put him in danger of getting clipped. Henderson's best bet short of catching Shogun with a right hook is grinding out the result by using his wrestling. Henderson has some excellent dirty boxing skills and much like Randy Couture can tire guys out by keeping them trapped in the clinch against the cage. He's some vicious ground and pound that Shogun will have to be careful of should he be taken down.

Recommendation: Henderson might just edge this. Although both fighters are known for their KO abilities that this is going to possibly be a decision. The longer the fight goes the more it suits Henderson.

Welterweight bout: Martin Kampmann vs. Rick Story

I think this fight has one of the major plays of the evening. Both men are in the top ten of the welterweight division and a victory for either could push them back towards possible contention in the division. Both men are dangerous for different reasons. Story with his excellent chin and very solid wrestling. Kampmann for his excellent kickboxing game and very under-rated ground game.

Story comes into the fight a slight favourite which personally speaking I think is a bit of a weird move by the bookies. If you look at their respective opponents to date Kampmann has fought a much higher calibre of fighter and with that has been on the wrong side of a couple of thread thin split decisions against top tier competition (Sanchez, Shields and Condit being the victors in those fights).

This fight is going to be all about whether Kampmann can avoid the takedown and engage Story in the striking game without getting caught. If Story attempts to stand and brawl I believe he may be on the wrong end of a decision as Kampmann's kickboxing is on another level to Story's.

Recommendation: The Hitman to upset the bookies and make us all some money. Those who bet on Fight of the Night may want to have a look at this as a potential bet.

I usually try to breakdown other fights on the card but I'm a bit stretched for time. Here's who I'm picking for the other fights anyway if you're interested.

Other Fights:

Middleweight bout: Wanderlei Silva vs. Cung Le
Recommendation: Cung Le
Bantamweight bout: Urijah Faber vs. Brian Bowles
Recommendation: Urijah Faber
Bantamweight bout: Miguel Torres vs. Nick Pace
Recommendation: Torres
Middleweight bout: Tom Lawlor vs. Chris Weidman
Recommendation: Chris Weidman
If it was on entrances alone Lawlor would never lose. He is one of my favourite fighters but Weidman is going to be a top 185'er so apologies to the legend that is Tom. If you're not familiar with Tom have a look at this...

Yeah any excuse to put those two clips into a blog is fine by me.

My bookie of choice currently is Bet365 via http://www.bet365.com/home
As of the time of writing the 6 fights in an accumalator is worth 16.84/1.

As ever folks thank you for reading and happy punting.

Goodbye from the fatman that is myself for now. This is my next haircut by the way.

UFC on Fox

2011-11-12T04:22:00.000-08:00

And here we go.

Just a recap last time out I was only wrong on one fight. Taking BJ Penn in a pick'em fight with Nick Diaz. As I said at the time they were very evenly skilled so it was difficult to pick a winner. It ended up being a great fight so even with the wrong result for me on the betting side of things it was a hell of a fight for any MMA fan to enjoy.

I'm a little later doing this up than usual so i'm planning to do a quick batch for the UFC on Fox card and do a UFC 139 blog later in the week.

I'm going to only breakdown two fights in this one. The main event of JDS vs Cain that airs on Fox in the States and Setanta over here as well the co-main event of Ben "The Smooth one" Henderson vs Clay "The Carpenter" Guida which will be live on Facebook. 8 other prelim fights air on Facebook so make sure not to miss them.

Heavyweight Championship bout: Cain Velasquez vs. Junior dos Santos
Lightweight bout: Ben Henderson vs. Clay Guida

Alright let's kick this off properly with the main event for the Heavyweight championship of the world.
Heavyweight Championship bout: Cain Velasquez vs. Junior dos Santos

Not only is this a landmark night for the UFC with their network TV debut it also sees possibly the biggest Heavyweight fight of the year. There's a bit of symmetry with the Heavyweight title taking centre stage as the event will mark 18 years since the UFC it's self debuted on PPV with an open weight tournament. A lots changed in those 18 years but mixed martial arts has remained the focus of the organisation. Anyway enough of this babbling lets get to the fight.

2 of the best Heavyweights on the planet finally collide after what seems like an eternity waiting for it. Velasquez has been out of the game injured since his crushing of Brock Lesnar back in October of last year at UFC121. Junior has attempted to keep himself busy in the midst of a guaranteed title shot being offered if he wished to wait whilst Cain recovered from his shoulder surgery. Cigano decided to keep fighting to keep himself fresh and faced an extremely dangerous opponent in Shane Carwin. Their UFC records are identical in that they're both 7-0 in the organisation. Both have numerous TKO's to their name and are extremely dangerous on the feet.

If we're talking purely boxing terms then you would give the advantage to Cigano. He has the best hands in the division from a boxing perspective and is as quick as he is technical with them. His beautiful knock out of Werdum in his debut and his streak of four stoppages (3 TKO/KO's and 1 verbal submission) there after against Struve, Cro Cop, Yvel and Gonzaga put him on the map and in contention for a title shot. He earned that title shot after a decision win against the robust Roy Nelson. In that fight JDS' cardio was brought into question as he was visibly tired going into the 3rd round. He looked much better cardio wise in his most recent fight with Carwin but there is still question marks in this area for a 5 round fight.

One negative impact for JDS is that he is rather one dimensional in his approach that he primarily boxes. Rarely throws kicks but is vicious with knees in the clinch. His trademark left upper cut is the punch to watch out for. If he hits anyone clean with that it's lights out and fight over. His take down defence and balance has been impressive but this will be put to the test with Velasquez who comes with an excellent all round and wrestling game.

Since his last fight he has split with Ed Soares as his manager and returned to his roots camp wise. He still receives BJJ training under the Nogueira brothers but is primarily training back in Brazil. Whether this will have a positive or negative impact on JDS is yet to be seen.

Moving on to Velasquez. What can be said that you've probably not already heard. Cain Velasquez is a true mixed martial artist in every sense of the name. His technique is excellent and his cardio is amazing for a Heavyweight. The guy is known to out train Welterweights and Lightweights in cardio drills which is for the most part unheard of.

He has a perfect 9-0 record and came into the UFC off the back of not being able to get fights on the regional circuit such was the buzz that was surrounding him after his debut. When he appeared in the UFC he immediatedly justified the hype by dispatching his first 2 opponents within the first round. He continued this tear with a third TKO victory in the UFC in his next fight. As has been visited on this blog previously he did take a decision victory over Cheick Kongo in his 4th UFC fight. This was visibly a bigger challenge for Cain compared to his first 3 opponents and it was the first time we'd seen him in any kind of difficulty when he was rocked twice. The cardio shined through and he recovered quickly enough to maintain his composure and grind out the fight.

He then disposed of Rothwell and Big Nog in ruthless fashion to earn a title shot against Brock Lesnar. In that title fight he survived an early Lesnar onslaught and being taken down twice to then press the champion and force a stoppage when Lesnar could no longer defend himself. It was the performance of a lifetime and I myself was personally there to witness it so I can say first hand that it was electric in the arena that night.

In the Lesnar fight Cain suffered a torn rotator cuff that required surgery. Hence forcing him to rehabilitate it prior to fighting again. Now two questions remain regarding this fight.
1. Can JDS avoid the takedown and land his strikes?
2. Does Cain still have the same conditioning as before his injury as it's over a year since he fought?

These two questions are key in determining the winner of this fight. Velasquez is the definitely more well rounded of the two fighters and would take the edge in that respect however JDS is the more technical boxer and has the quicker hands but not as great cardio.

Recommendation: It's a pick'em fight again. I believe if this fight is over inside the first 2 rounds it will be via a JDS KO/TKO. If it goes any longer than that I think Velasquez will win the fight by a 4th round TKO or a decision. I'm probably going to be hedging my bets with this one for those reasons.

Lightweight bout: Ben Henderson vs. Clay Guida

If you're a Fight of the Night bet fan. I'd suggest this or Poirier vs Garza. Guida and Henderson is a pretty even match up in many areas. They've both excellent top games and wrestling. Their cardio is off the charts. Guida's entrance is generally more movement than some Heavyweights have in their fights. Henderson is much the same in the respect that he's a lightning bolt speed wise and can keep up a relentless pace.

Guida has made a name for himself through his relentless style. Previously a Strikeforce champion prior to being dethroned by Gilbert Melendez. Guida has come on in leaps and bounds since moving to Greg Jackson's camp. He comes into this fight on a four fight win streak including a victory over Anthony Pettis who defeated Henderson back at WEC53 to claim their Lightweight title. We're not doing MMA math here so it would be silly to discount Henderson on this basis. He is an exciting fighter and is willing to participate in a brawl should it be needed. Guida does have some wild stand up but it can be effective in that it's unorthodox so Guida is difficult to predict on his feet. This helps him with his wrestling game as it allows opportunities for the takedown.

Henderson is coming off the back of two wins since entering the UFC. His most recent victory over Jim Miller was extremely impressive as no-one had put Miller into those sort of precarious positions up to that point in his career. It was also noticeable how much compusure Henderson had as he himself was put in some difficult positions early on in the fight. Henderson is extremely well rounded and in my personal opinion I give him a massive advantage on the feet as well as on the ground should he be on top.

It's a close fight and is probably going to go by decision.
Recommendation: The Smooth One Ben Henderson. It'll either be by submission early on or a decision victory.

Other Facebook Prelims:

Welterweight bout: Mike Pierce vs. Paul Bradley
Recommendation: Pierce
Bantamweight bout: Norifumi Yamamoto vs. Darren Uyenoyama
Recommendation: Kid Yamamoto
Featherweight bout: Cub Swanson vs. Ricardo Lamas
Recommendation: Lamas
Featherweight bout: Dustin Poirier vs. Pablo Garza
Recommendation: This is a pick'em fight. Poirier is the better fighter in my opinion and should take it but Garza could pull off a shock victory. Price wise a small punt on Garza may be worthwhile if you want to hedge.

For what it's worth

2011-11-08T15:10:00.000-08:00

To anyone that reads this I've a simple statement to make that I'm happy to admit to anyone. I'm a gambler. I have been since I turned around 19 and started to play poker. Much like anything in this world; gambling it's self can be a life long struggle with adversity in the pursuit of perfection. It's something that you're capable of doing from the moment you can think for yourself until the day that you die if your faculties are intact. You might ask why I'm writing this and I'll answer that. Simple I'm bored number one and number two; there is so much stigma related to the subject that I just want to get my feelings on the subject out in the open and leave something that's been annoying the fuck out of me for a long time.

Now before anyone starts wondering what difference it makes to me as a person. I'll tell you. It means nothing for the most part. It means that sometimes I'm going to look at some things from a different perspective. There's a stereotypical view of a gambler as a leech trying to put any money they have or don't have in some cases on a bet trying to get that big score. From a personal perspective that's not me. It never has been and never will be. I don't believe in that sort of thing. It's a shitty stereotype related to arseholes that give gamblers a bad name. Some gamblers I've got to know are some of the most honourable people I've had the pleasure to know. If you're looking at the highest end of the spectrum; some players will loan out 6 figure sums on an IOU or stake someone on the basis of a percentage of their winnings. Most of the interesting people I've got to know through this hobby have a sort of unwritten code of ethics. It's weird that in an age where people can be so anally retentive about deals and contracts; that gamblers can verbally agree things and meet terms without the bull shit that ties down some of the rest of the world.

You see there's a huge difference between being retarded when it comes to gambling and smart enough that you do not fuck yourself over. It's the same difference between someone that can drink a pint and someone that will just get paralytically shit faced every time they're within sniffing distance of a jagerbomb. Yes there is drawbacks and yes you have to learn lessons the hard way; by your pocket being hit in a time when money is king. But and it's as huge a but as J-Lo's arse. With those lessons there is an education if you're smart enough to pay attention that you can take advantage of some golden opportunities.

I appreciate that everyone has that mate that's pretty much fucked themselves up; betting on anything irrespective of them knowing the thing they're betting on. These are the gambling equivalent of someone that was gonna be a fuck up either way. If it wasn't gambling that got them it would have been the booze or pot or fucking Winning Streak scratchcards. They were someone bound to be fucked or fucked over. They're the people sending their bank account details to the Nigerian bank scam mails. In other words they don't look at the reality of the game and think they can beat anything.

Now I'm not going to say I came by this realisation overnight. It took me a few years to come to the conclusions I have now. Being honest at one point I was down about €2500 over a 2 year period. Trust me on the sunscreen on this. One of the best things I've ever did was compile my betting history to understand where I was burning money up and where I was most profitable. You have to understand that like the massive odds of the Lotto; usually the odds are stacked against you in favour of the bookie and you have to try limit those possible odds. Seen as though it's a common thing for people to have their yearly bet on the Grand National. Have a look at the history of the favourite winning that race and you'll soon see what I mean. That's a 40 horse race each year so your odds all things being equal are 39 to 1. That's 1 horse for you and 39 for the bookie to win. Ok horses aren't equal but traditionally the favourite for the race is usually around 7-1. It's this sort of shit that few people will take into account.

It's a sucker bet and much like someone on Deal or No Deal that keeps their box all the way through it just really isn't playing to the numbers. Just in case you're wondering what I mean with the Deal or No Deal Scenario. Say you have 25 boxes in the game. If you pick 1 box at this point you've got a 4% chance in having the jackpot box. Now if you get to the end and you've the 1c box and the €250,000 box available and you decide to go to the end. The banker tells Noel to offer you the swap. What do you do?
a) Keep your box sure the odds are 50/50.
b) Swap the box.

The answer is b. You should actually swap the box every time. You see it's simple maths. Although you have 2 boxes available. The odds are stacked heavily that the other box will have the €250,000. When you start each box has a 4% chance of being the jackpot. The box on your table's odds never changes. The boxes in play however do. For each box you've taken away throughout the game your adding 4% more likelihood to that other box being the jackpot. Your odds are actually 96 to 4 at that point. So would you still stay with the box? Of course not. 24 times the swap is the right move and only once keeping it is. It's a maths thing. It's known as variable change. Feel free to check it out. Anyone that's watched the excellent movie 21 may be aware of the concept.

At points in my teens I was going on the hop to play snooker or pool for money. Hell at one point I was gambling with my overtime money playing pool in Stillorgan or Bray. Yes that was a profitable endeavour and one of the things I did to get myself out of the aforementioned hole. It did take me a year solid to get ahead but it's something I've paid attention to as much as I can. The key to keeping this shit in the long run is knowing where to get your money in and when to stay the hell away from items. My favourite markets at the moment are MMA as you can see from my recent history of blogs. Bookies are still trying to catch up on this sport so a bit of knowledge can go a long way. Some things are just borderline impossible to predict on a regular basis. Horse racing being one. It's a fucking nightmare and is more a bet for fun thing in my opinion. It's also the sport where you'll hear the all too familiar mantra of "it can't lose".

If you do like a gamble or two and your finding yourself on the losing end of things. I'd suggest reading a few things. Firstly the great book "Amarillo Slim in a world full of fat people" by Thomas Austin Preston or Amarillo Slim as he's better known. Slim is a gambling success story much in the same way that Magnier and McManus are through the bloodstock business which is heavily reliant on racing in general to make money. Slim has had a lifetime of gambling and came out all the richer. Much in the same vein as Doyle Brunson. Slim invested and kept a nest egg to retire to. If you read his life story you'll get a better insight the difference between a real gambler and someone that puts on a bet. Some of my favourite quotes of his that put things into better perspective are:

“I don’t believe in hunches. Hunches are for dogs making love.” Amarillo Slim

“Nobody is always a winner and anybody who says he is, is either a liar or doesn’t play poker.” Amarillo Slim

Slim was one of the great proposition gamblers of his time and there's a heap of different famous bets. My favourite story about Slim is his famous ping pong bets. He always said he'd play anyone as long as he chose the paddles. This lead to him beating a world ping pong champion with them using coke bottles as paddles.
One of Slim's mottos was: "I never go looking for a sucker. I look for a Champion and make a sucker of of him."
To this respect Slim was one of the greatest gamblers in history. He would put a proposition to you that it looked like he could not win. He followed in the footsteps of Titanic Thompson who is the subject of an excellent biography by Kevin Cook. I'd seriously suggest reading both books. You will enjoy them and it will make you a better gambler for it.

I went a bit off track there but here's the simplest way to give yourself a chance of some success in the long run. Use different sites. Prices vary wildly from site to site so always go looking for value. You wouldn't spend €50 quid extra on a coat you know you can get cheaper in another store. There's really no excuse to do this in gambling either. Get the best value for your money. You owe it to yourself. Sites like www.oddschecker.com will give you a great insight into prices available across the major sites. Loyalty is not valued for the most part my sports book sites so be loyal to yourself.

The other thing I highly recommend is to offer odds and lay bets through sites like Betfair. If you know a sport lay odds. There's a huge market out there and there's easy money to be made. Remember in the long run it's the bookies that don't lose. This is why Betfair and similar sites can be advantageous as you're the bookie and only limited by the amount in your bankroll. People do not pay attention to this sort of shit enough. It's a simple proposition.

As much as I love them accumalators are your worst enemy. Try stick to doubles or trebles as you are more likely to get a return. If you're stretching to 4 selections look at doing a lucky 15 or something similar. This way there's a return of some sort if only some of your selections come through. When betting on the donks and you're getting over evens for a place. Put the each way bet down. This gives an opportunity for you to earn your original stake back plus a little profit.

Profit. That's the key word. You play to win. You gamble to win. Anyone that gambles for gambling's sake is a fucking moron. You might as well just flip a coin. It's quicker and you've better odds usually. They're one of those people that's probably decided to piss into the wind at some point too. Keep to what you know. Do not bet on shit you've not a clue on. If you're taking betting advice from anyone including me. Try see what they're like history wise. Too many people bet on the basis of thinking someone knows better. A lot of people are full of shit when it comes to betting as well. Look at investment bankers. They're gamblers of the worst accord. Gambling with other fuckers money whilst taking their fees regardless of the outcome. Yes some of them have did amazingly well for themselves but to all intents and purposes it's the investment banking sector that's caused the global recession. Some of them advising people to invest on shit they were betting against. The legendary stories of credit default swaps being the prime example. I base this on a lot of economist's views and through a few documentaries including the excellent Inside Job.

If you take anything from my rambling please take this advice. Never gamble money you don't have. If you can't afford to do it. Don't. I've got to the stage where I'd rather risk a gamble than have a drink as I may get a return on my bet as opposed to a filthy hangover. Worst case scenario you get no return.. Much like when you have a drink so I there's my twisted logic.

Don't chase lost money. If you're on a losing streak don't increase your bets or get desperate to cover the losses. This is the mistake most people make. They get emotional and panic. It's that panic that leads to mistakes and unnecessary risks. This leads back to the only play with what you can afford to lose.

The other side of things is trust the maths and keep a record. Luck is a four letter word. It's subjective. It's not a fact. Maths can not be denied. With some games the odds will always remain the same. Playing Texas holdem you've a set of odds that do not change. Don't get stupid because you've lost with a particular hand on repeated occasions. This is the mistake some people make and it's fatal. You have to be willing to play the numbers and take emotion and memory out of it in that respect. Keeping a record of what you've done is the best way to know where you stand. Record everything of relevance. Your stakes etc. and before too long you'll see the patterns that you can adjust.

There's opportunites out there. Of this I've no doubt. There's definitely ways to make money if you do things right. Learn when to hedge your bets so your not so reliant on one outcome.

I hope this makes some sense. I'll probably have a UFC blog for UFC on Fox and UFC 139 up by Friday.

Here endeth the lesson.

Ciao Super Sic

2011-10-25T15:46:00.000-07:00

I've sort of struggled with the idea of whether or not to write anything on this subject as I'm definitely not as eloquent as some of the others that have shared their thoughts since Sunday's tragic accident (I'd personally recommend reading the beautiful autosport.com piece that Toby Moody wrote or the Kevin Schwantz blog on superbike planet). I've decided to do something simply because I loved Marco's personality, his enthusiasm, his relentless riding style and have had the pleasure to see him do what he loved for the last few years courtesy of the excellent Eurosport coverage over the years and most recently Setanta and BBC's Moto GP coverage. The outpouring of grief and tributes across Facebook, Twitter and the motorsport community in general shows how much Marco meant to most of us all. When the official announcement of Marco's passing was made I found myself tearing up as we'd not only lost an amazing sportsmen who was the heir apparent to the "Vale46" throne both on the track and off it in the hearts of the fans adorning the #58 t-shirts; we'd lost a rare breed of person too from all accounts of his competitors and friends.

Admittedly in his 125 days I really didn't recognise Marco as the talent he was. Sadly for Marco he wasn't at that stage on the competitive machinery capable of challenging the top teams in the championship. Remember in 2004 that Marco was racing against seasoned 125 campaigners in the likes of Stoner, Locatelli, Barbera and Lorenzo. Even with this in mind he did still manage to claim his first World Championship win that season in Jerez when Stoner went down the road in the wet conditions. The next season saw another victory in Jerez again but once again the Aprilia bike was no match to the Red Bull KTM or the Honda 125 which had seen some big investment over the previous few years. A career best championship position of 5th and a more consistent season saw Marco move up to the 250cc class the following season. It was here that Marco started to make his mark.

Having moved to the Metis Gilera team that had recently rejoined the quarter litre class Marco and Gilera spent most of 2006 and 2007 finding their feet in the class as the bike developed. The podiums were missing but the finishing positions were consistent. In 2008 this however changed and Marco would be the name on most fans lips when they talked about the 250's on a Monday morning. Having retired from the first two races of the season Simoncelli found himself on his first 250 podium in the 3rd round in Portugal. He followed this up with a 4th and continued the momentum with an excellent 2nd behind Alex Debon at the Le Mans Bugatti circuit. When the circus moved to Mugello Marco pulled off a move with 2 laps to go that would be come infamous and an illustration of the aggressive riding we would come to expect. A lot of people said Simoncelli had overstepped the boundaries but this was an Italian at his home Grand Prix chasing an elusive first victory on an Italian bike after 3 years without a win. People don't always put things into context but at that moment I don't think anything could have been more important to the then 21 year old. If you've never seen it you can catch it via this link http://www.myvideo.de/watch/4345624/Horrorcrash_bei_220_kmh. Sorry I can't embed the file to just stream directly. These are the only 2 pictures I can find of the scene after the collision on the 2nd last lap.

After that first victory; Marco proved it was no fluke by winning the next race. Claiming victory in the Catalan Grand Prix much to the annoyance of the Spanish riders and then taking another 4 consecutive podiums (including a further victory in Germany) to throw himself into the heart of the championship battle with Bautista and Kallio. A brief slump to 6th at Misano saw Simoncelli's worst performance of what was remaining in the season. He went on to claim the next 2 races and finally the championship at the Malaysian Grand Prix with a third placed finish. It would be a sad irony that the track that saw Marco's greatest triumph would later be the scene of his tragic death just over 3 years later.

After claiming the title he went on to win the last race of the 2008 season in Valencia to round off an amazing year. With this title Marco had arrived. The happy go lucky demeanour that came to be his calling card masked the determination he had when his visor was down, leathers on, tyres and engine screaming to find a lap time. The 250cc championship was fast becoming the race to watch each weekend due to the battles involving Marco, Barbera and Bautista. No quarter was asked for and certainly none was given as Mugello illustrated. This would continue on into the 2009 season all three of them remained in the class for another season.

Having been injured in the off season Marco missed the 1st round of the championship completely and could only manage 17th in the second round of the season. Soon after though Marco hit his stride and started charging down the usual suspects of Barbera and Bautista as well as an inspired Hiroshi Aoyama who with the backing of Honda was putting a challenge up for the championship. Honda had invested in their 250cc machine that season in order to try and claim the final 250cc championship.
One of my favourite Simoncelli races was actually one he didn't win. The Italian Grand Prix of 2009 where in horrid conditions he went off track after another bit of hard battling with Bautista only to get back on track and chase down Pasini. In one of the most incredible bits of heart he came 2nd and even lead at points on the final lap despite his earlier excursion. Again video clips are scarce unfortunately but I've located a french audio highlight reel of the race. It's worth catching. http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x9gmcq_mugello_sport

Retirements that season would cost Simoncelli dear and he ultimately lost out in the championship to the ultra consistent Aoyama who finished every race with a finish of no worse than 8th. Despite Marco's 6 wins that season his retirement in 3 races and missing the season opener left him 3rd in the final standings. Even with this in mind he was still in contention until the last race of the year which can tell you how much ground he gained throughout the year despite the early issues. It was announced that Marco would be graduating to the Moto GP class with the Gresini Honda team.

On a side note and with a little encouragement from his close friend Valentino Rossi. Simoncelli had accepted a guest ride on an Aprilia WSB at Imola. Rossi is said to have jokingly sent a text to Marco telling him to at least duff up Max Biaggi at least once. Of course Marco being Marco was all too happy to find a way past his fellow Italian much to the annoyance of the elder statesmen. Marco finished 3rd in Race Two to claim a World Superbike Podium on his debut weekend! Different bike, different championship. Same supreme talent. It was with this performance that Simoncelli was illustrating that he had the potential to be something big and ride the wheels off any bike. His determination on the track and charisma off it set him out as a rider that fans wanted to see more of as he wasn't the same sort of P.R. conscious rider that fans had begun to see in the modern era.

Teamed with the experienced Melandri; Simoncelli got off to a slow start to the season partially due to two huge pre-season testing crashes in Sepang. Having picked up two 11th place finishes to start his Moto GP career Simoncelli then improved over the next 3 races to then finish 7th at the British GP. His highest of the season to that date on the privateer Honda. By now Simoncelli's racers edge was becoming ever more apparent as Marco raced for every point he could gather as well as going head to head with the other riders on the track with his agressive style. The improvements continued with Simoncelli completing a season high finish of 4th at the Portuguese race. He then rounded off the season with a 6th place finish. The impressive season was enough to catch the eye of HRC and Marco through Gresini Honda was provided with a works specification bike for the 2011 season.

After pre-season testing Simoncelli was being tipped as a darkhorse for the season and tipped as a man to make a further breakthrough. Having worked with Honda in their wind tunnel to find ways to limit the negative effects of his towering frame. Honda were growing ever more impressed with the Italian. A fact that would not be lost later in the year when they offered Simoncelli a works bike for the 2012 season over Dovizioso who had been with Honda for the previous four years in Moto GP. The contract having only been signed a number of weeks before Simoncelli's tragic demise. The season started with a solid 5th position in Qatar at the Losail circuit. When the circus found it's way to the wet-dry race in Jerez Simoncelli found himself leading and driving away from the field prior to losing control and having to retire. None the less the warning shot had been fired and Marco was stepping up to fight with the elite of the class. He was ready to take on the "aliens" as Colin Edwards refers to them (Rossi, Pedrosa, Lorenzo and Stoner). Another retirement at the next race left much to be desired. When the teams returned to action in France Simoncelli was immediately on the pace and qualified a close 2nd. In the race there was to be another polarizing moment for Simoncelli when he was deemed to have caused an accident with Pedrosa (who ended up breaking his collar bone as a result) and earned himself a drive through penalty that wrecked his hopes of a first podium. Simoncelli was under attack. Riders began voicing criticisms of his aggressive style but Simoncelli took things on his chin and continued to work to his ultimate goal. One of the highlights of this period was a press conference with Lorenzo and Marco where Lorenzo was critical of Simoncelli's aggressive riding and said if another incident happens they'll have to do something. Simoncelli's retort was priceless. "They'll arrest me!" This got a few chuckles in the press room and showed Marco's undoubtable sense of humour.

A crash in the wet British Grand Prix whilst fighting for a podium then crashing into Lorenzo at the first corner in the Dutch Grand Prix led to some columnists and riders commenting that it may be time for a ban or some sort of reprimand. Simoncelli yet again kept his head down and continued to do his talking on the track. A couple of solid top six finishes followed the 9th he achieved despite his early fall at Assen. Another retirement at the US Grand Prix at Laguna Seca left Simoncelli with plenty to think about going into the summer break. When the teams returned to racing at Brno Simoncelli seemed to have lost some qualifying pace but had seemingly found more consistency in the race. After 29 races of asking. Simoncelli finally got his first Moto GP podium to the delight of many pundits who'd continued to support him and the legions of fans that he was fast attracting as the excitement built around the Italian continued to grow. A poor Indianapolis performance was followed by Marco's most consistent run in the top class to date three fourth place finishes in a row. The last of these in the Japanese Grand Prix was the most impressive by far as Simoncelli received a ride through penalty after a jump start and fought his way back through the field eventually finishing 23 seconds behind the winner Pedrosa. What might have been. The next Grand Prix in Philip Island with the knowledge that he would receive a works bike for next year Simoncelli recorded what would ultimately be his best finish with a 2nd place behind Casey Stoner.

And that leads us at the end of the story. The Malaysian Grand Prix 2011. Marco was battling with the old adversary Bautista and swapping positions throughout the first lap and up to that fateful turn 11. It appears Marco lost the front and instead of the usual lowslide occuring Marco tried to save it and was fighting until the end. It appears the front re-gripped dragging Marco into the path of Edwards and Rossi. And with that he was gone despite the best efforts of the medics. I've still got vivid pictures in my head of the riders and Simoncelli's father being shown on the TV when the official news broke. Having been a motorsport fan I've sadly witnessed this more times than I'd like to remember over the years.

This time was different as to me Marco emboddied something completely different to most sportsmen. He was a man living to a different set of rules. He was an amazing ambassador for motorsport and a loveable guy. Who couldn't love that smile or laugh at the pertruding affro from his helmet. Not to mention when he was on a bike he gave total commitment. The number of times he pushed the front of his bike to the point where it was chattering away like a ventriloquist dummy's jaw was incredible. What may have been? We'll never know sadly. It would have been interesting to see Marco ride a 1000cc where he wouldn't have been at as big a disadvantage due to his size as he was on the 800cc. All that's left to say at this point is Grazie Marco. We love you. We miss you. Ciao Super Sic.

RIP Marco Simoncelli 1987-2011

A look at the betting on UFC 137

2011-10-22T14:51:00.000-07:00

So here we go again.

If you're keeping score it was 5 out of 7 on my predictions for the last UFC card. Out of the darkness of being wrong twice; I did point out that Lauzon could get the shock win by submission and that the key to Stann winning was him keeping Sonnen from getting the fight to the ground. Ultimately his inability to do just that lead to Sonnen controlling him on the ground and ultimately lead to the Sonnen victory. I must say I was massively off the mark with regards Sonnen when it came to possible ring rust and he has seemed to add some much needed jiu jitsu skills to help his already excellent wrestling game. Anyways on to the UFC 137 card.

The fights I'm going to concentrate on are:

Main card

Welterweight bout: B.J. Penn vs. Nick Diaz
Heavyweight bout: Cheick Kongo vs. Matt Mitrione
Heavyweight bout: Mirko Filipović vs. Roy Nelson

Preliminary card (Spike TV)

Lightweight bout: Dennis Siver vs. Donald Cerrone

Preliminary card (Facebook)

Light Heavyweight bout: Brandon Vera vs. Eliot Marshall

Here we go. First up the main event.

Welterweight bout: B.J. Penn vs. Nick Diaz

Originally both men had different opponents on this card but due to Nick Diaz no-showing two press conferences he was removed from a scheduled title fight with GSP to be replaced by Penn's original opponent Carlos Condit. Both men are extremely similar fighters in style. They've both excellent hands and are amongst the elite as far as technique in their boxing is concerned. Both have excellent chins and are able to absorb a lot of punishment. This is before we get to the ground game aspect which is yet again extremely evenly matched. BJ has an excellent top game but his guard when off his back can leave something to be desired. Diaz in a similar vein to his brother Nate and the rest of the Cesar Gracie camp is happy to be on top or attacking from his back.

Diaz has gone toe to toe with a number of K.O artists in his time most recently Semtex Daley and Cyborg Santos. The Diaz punches in bunches method has become a legend in it's self and Diaz's condition is not in question as he is famous for keeping up the tempo of his fights.

BJ on the other side of things has had a bit of a resurgence after being out-pointed by Frankie Edgar in their two lightweight encounters. Questions over BJ's conditioning and weight cut have been brought up with his performances in those fights. Especially since a change in his training regime had seen BJ put on some more muscle to his frame. Some had suggested his motivation wasn't there and BJ himself has said he struggles some days with the thought of continuing as a fighter. His will can be borderline bi-polar at times judging by his own statements. However a return to welterweight seems to have re-ignited the fire in his belly and an impressive knockout of Matt Hughes and a draw against Jon Fitch have seen BJ move back into the welterweight title picture with a possible title shot being available should he beat Diaz. This could lead BJ back to a fight with GSP which would have some huge emotional implications for BJ. In that fight his corner threw in the towel after round 4 and BJ himself was incensed by what became known as Greasegate. BJ has continued the excellent strength and conditioning programme he started for the GSP fight and is looking dangerous. He has recently voiced his desire to have a run at a title whether it's at 170lbs or 155lbs. Is it possible? Yes if BJ wants to do it he will. Don't be shocked if you see the Prodigy wear UFC gold again.

Recommendation: BJ Penn by decision. I think this is going the distance as both men cancel each other out in a lot of areas. I think that Penn has a higher pedigree than Diaz and will sneak this.

Heavyweight bout: Cheick Kongo vs. Matt Mitrione

In what could be a massive fight for Matt Mitrione's career prospects he takes on Cheick Kongo. This is going to be a fight with some interesting implications on the heavyweight division. If Kongo takes this then he has the momentum to get him into a contender position in the division. He'd be possibly two fights removed from a title shot. A loss for Kongo will see him most likely play the role of gatekeeper for the rest of his MMA career. Mitrione the former professional American Football player finds himself in an enviable position early on in his UFC career and takes on the biggest test of his skills to date.

I think this fight is going to take place mainly on the feet. Mitrione has shown a penchant for letting his hands go in his previous fights and appears to have a very good chin and a lot of confidence in his striking. To date the Meathead has won four of his five fights by KO or TKO against an ever higher quality of opponent. Going with this strategy may be a big problem as Kongo has shown himself to be one of the most dangerous strikers in the division.

Kongo has been in the UFC heavyweight top 10 for a few years now and has had numerous notable victories. He's also been known to have several issues in his career. First his take down defense has been horrendous and as a fighter that was primarily a striker it's a neglected part of his game. He seems to have worked on both his take downs and take down defence in recent years but it's yet to be seen whether this will help him against the elite of the division. The other aspect of Kongo's game that has came into question is his discipline. He's earned the nickname "CupCheick" for his numerous low blows in fights.

Even with all that said Kongo's heart can not be taken into question after his performance against Velasquez when he was dominated only to rock the current champion twice as well as his comeback of the year performance against Pat Barry.

Recommendation: Cheick Kongo. Kongo's striking is of K1 level and his chin and recovery times are excellent. Kongo is also the man that rocked the current UFC heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez twice to the point where if he hadn't gone for a clinch he may have knocked out the still unbeaten Velasquez.

Heavyweight bout: Mirko Filipović vs. Roy Nelson

This could be a fight of the night contender. Expect both men to come out swinging in this fight. Big Country and Cro Cop are both in danger of losing their jobs due to recent lacklustre performances. Both men are at varying stages of their careers and it must be said that it's Nelson that needs the victory more urgently of the two fighters if his career prospects are to improve.

The legendary Cro Cop is most famous for his highlight reel knock outs in Pride but his UFC career has never really taken off. His UFC victories have came against a lower grade of fighters and when put in against top guys he has struggled. His old quote of right leg hospital left leg cemetery might still get chuckles but he is largely speaking a too one dimensional fighter to be still relevant at the top of the division. Personally speaking I think a loss could spell retirement for Cro Cop. His best days are behind him and this can be seen in his struggles against mid-tier opposition.

Big Country is coming off the back of two losses as is Cro Cop. Big Country's performances in these fights has left serious questions over his ability to go at full pace for 3 rounds. He showed a lot of heart in both fights in that he was swinging to the end as well as illustrating his iron chin against JDS. He's now 2-2 in the UFC and has to know that a victory is required to get him back on track. Despite the look of Big Country he is a serious threat to all heavyweights in the UFC. He has an excellent skill set range and is as dangerous on the ground as he is on the feet. Having won the Ultimate Fighter TV series to get his UFC contract it is still to be seen if Nelson can make the steps necessary to become a contender.

Recommendation: Do not judge a book by it's cover. Big Country Nelson should pick up a win here.

Lightweight bout: Dennis Siver vs. Donald Cerrone
This is a huge fight in the lightweight division. Both men are coming off the back of impressive wins and which ever fighter takes the win in this will find themselves thrust into the title picture at 155. Siver has shown a massive improvement in his overall game since his UFC debut in 2007. He is currently on an impressive 4 fight winning streak and has shown great striking skills as well as some amazing balance in his takedown defence when beating George Sotiropoulous in Australia.

Cerrone is in the middle of a career resurgence himself and since the WEC was folded into the UFC has been on an absolute tear. He holds a five fight win streak heading into this fight (2 in the WEC and 3 in the UFC) and has finished three of his last four fights in impressive fashion. His most recent victory was an impressive TKO of Charles Oliveira and the Cowboy looks like he is ready to put himself back in the title picture.

Recommendation: This is going to be a fight of the night contender and I have to favour Cerrone. He's fought a tougher quality of opponent and has a stronger overall MMA game in all areas in my opinion.

Light Heavyweight bout: Brandon Vera vs. Eliot Marshall
This is another match with huge implications on the future job prospects of the two fighters. Vera comes into the fight on the back of a career reprieve thanks to Thiago Silva's masked drug test. Vera who at one point was the hottest prospect in the UFC's heavyweight division and had the balls to call out Chuck Liddell as he'd aspirations of being the first man to hold the UFC heavyweight and lightweight belts at the same time.

Marshall is a talented jiu jitsu practitioner and is also a former TUF contestant who has fought his way back to the UFC after being cut previously from the organisation. He earned three wins outside of the UFC only to return to be on the receiving end of a vicious knock out from Luiz Cane. This is a hard fight to break down as both men have had a history of under-performing at times. With the stakes as high as they are for both fighters it could lead to a huge fight from both men or a snooze fest.

Recommendation: Brandon Vera to take this one. If Vera is on form there is very few that can beat him. He really needs to use his excellent Muay Thai game more as he has some vicious leg kicks and knees in the clinch.

So that's it for the UFC 137 card from me. I would have liked to put an extra fight or two in here but I think these six are the fights that are a bit more open especially with winning bets in mind.

Happy punting.

In Life Unbeatable. In Death Irreplaceable. Ayrton Senna

2011-10-17T14:00:00.000-07:00

Hi again folks.

Seen as though we're two weeks away from the next UFC; I thought it would be a good time to explore another one of my major loves. Specifically F1. At the time of writing this I find myself pondering about some of the great drivers and people that have been taken away from us in race crashes. It's rare these days but less than 24 hours ago tragedy struck in the Las Vegas 300 and Indycar lost one of it's brightest stars in Dan
Wheldon. Whilst he didn't have a full-time drive this year he was an ultra talented guy who left his mark on both the Indianapolis Motor Speedway (winning the Indy 500 twice) and the Indy Racing League championship (by winning it in 2005). Every time I see or hear about a fatality in motorsport my mind can't help but wander back to that horrible weekend in 1994 when we lost Ratzenberger and Senna.

Being a nine year old kid at the time I barely understood what dying meant yet alone that sports people could die in action. At that time I was still only about 3 and a half years into my love affair with motorsport. My first experience of F1 that I can remember was the infamous Suzuka showdown of 1990 when Senna crashed into Prost at the first corner to effectively end that year's world championship.

With that moment I started to follow the sport actively and due to it I've seen some heart wrenching moments as well as some incredible action. I can still remember watching BBC for what seemed like hours as the helicopter hovered above the scene of the accident all the while expecting to see Senna get out up and wave to the crowd to indicate he was alright as I'd seen with numerous other drivers involved in crashes. Sadly this was young naievety on my part as the blood on the track and the doctors trying to recuscitate him escaped my attention whilst I read through the News of the World detailing the Ratzenberger accident. No words I can use will ever do justice to explain the impact that this had on my mind at that age. It was because of those two accidents that I started looking at motorsport history (remember this was before the internet so my Dad's wallet was hit badly whilst I looked for "input" Johnny 5 style) and a lot of things that had never entered my childish brain. The reality of that Imola situation wouldn't dawn on me until I realised that there was no coming back from this and he was gone. Murray Walker's description of covering that race still haunts me a bit as he described it perfectly by saying they never left him alone. If you want an understanding of what he meant here's an example of the race footage on that fatal day.

I use this as an example as out of a horrible situation there can be some light. Thanks to these two accidents Formula 1 became a safer sport. The FIA started to put in ever stricter safety rules for the designs of the cars and developed new testing methods so that they could ensure drivers where as safe as possible when on the track. Obviously we'll never make motorsport completely safe but there's been huge leaps in that field and the fact we've not seen another F1 fatality since then is a testament to this.

With the release of the recent Senna movie I found my love affair with the legend of Ayrton re-ignited and myself re-reading the excellent Senna biography "The Death of Ayrton Senna" by Richard Williams. It also gave me a chance to wind back to some of the amazing moments I got to witness when Senna was at his peak. These include but where not limited to his amazing drive to 2nd in Monaco in 1984 ironically although up to that date it was his finest performance he was racing with a damaged car having rattled the barriers. Would he have finished the race? Would Bellof who was running faster at the time the race had stopped got past him? We'll never know.

Who can forget the terrifying qualifying performance at Monaco in 1988. Senna later revealed he felt like he was having an out of body experience. At one point he was over 2 seconds faster than Prost in the same car. Here's a clip from the Senna movie with audio from Senna describing the out of body experience he had.

The two moments of pure genius that stand out for me more than any are his amazing drive to the title at Suzuka in 1988. Senna had stalled on the grid and managed to get his McLaren bump started rolling down the hill towards the first corner. From there he lit up the track passing cars just about everywhere to get on Prost's back and eventually overtake him. On that day Senna says he saw God as he crossed the finish line. He never described what god looked like but it's another thing that moulded the man's iron will.

The last amazing moment to show Senna was still at the height of his powers at 33 was the European Grand Prix of Donnington in 1993. On this day the rain allowed Senna to beat the more technologically advanced cars around him including the dominant Williams cars. Senna made a mockery of the field that day and lead from the first lap despite dropping back to 5th or 6th. If you're unfamiliar with him I recommend watching the Senna movie. As a little taster check out the Top Gear tribute from last year and if you enjoy this it's well worth catching the flick.

To this day that man is still my hero. His philosophies and kindness off the track live on today and are an example that should be followed.

In life unbeatable. In death irreplaceable.
RIP Ayrton Senna 1960-1994

A look at betting on UFC 136

2011-10-02T11:23:00.000-07:00

Ok so maybe I've not done what I originally set out to do with this blog and I've decided it's time to try help you earn some dough if you are one of the few people to read this thing.

I've got about a 75% strike rate with my UFC bets and usually will try get one big upset in there to help. So with 2 title fights and a stacked card this coming weekend I think it's only right to try beat the bookies and start doing this blog as I originally set out to.

So let's breakdown the main card and what's worth a bet. As far as pricing goes I'd highly recommend Bet365.com and Paddy Power for their odds. PP are better for specialist bets like method of victory and round betting. Bet365 tend to have the better outright price. They're both based on no draw betting so in the highly unlikely event of a draw they will void the selection and the bet is deemed a push.

Lightweight Championship bout: Frankie Edgar (c) vs. Gray Maynard

As the first two fights have shown these two are evenly matched although Maynard is the bigger, stronger of the two when it comes to their phsiques. He has earned his nickname of the Bully with his grinding style that's very similar to Jon Fitch. He also has some heavy hands as evident in the second Edgar fight when he sent Edgar head over heels in the first round. He dominated that round to the point that Frankie nearly had a 10-7 round against him. Have a look at the below gif to illustrate how close Maynard came to ending that fight. There was some suggestions he may have punched himself out trying to end the fight at this point.

Here's where it gets difficult though. Even after that disaster of a first round Edgar persevered on many people's scorecard over the next 4 rounds. He managed to take Maynard down impressively and as ever with Edgar his conditioning is amazing. He darts in and out and throws punches with as much vigour in the last seconds of a 5 round fight as he does in the first few seconds of the 1st round. I personally think this fight is too close to call. My heart would say Edgar will avenge the only loss of his career in this one but it really could go either way. Both are great wrestlers but I would say Edgar is the better of the two on the feet.

Recommendation: Avoid betting on this one. Just sit back and enjoy what could be a fight of the year contender.

Featherweight Championship bout: José Aldo (c) vs. Kenny Florian

Kenny Florian has twice gone for UFC gold and twice been mangled. First by Sherk and then by BJ Penn. Personally speaking I do not think Florian has it in him to beat Jose Aldo if he is on form. Aldo is a miniature version of Anderson Silva with dynamic striking and could be best described as a vicious ballet of violence. You can see some of his handy work below.

One question remains though with Aldo. How badly will the weight cut hurt him? Video of him complaining about his weight cut have been uploaded online and it is known from his last fight that he gassed particularly in the later rounds. Will it be 3rd time lucky for Florian as far as taking UFC gold? The simple answer is no. Aldo should win this most likely by TKO. Expect Florian to come out flying though as I believe he will try press the action so as not to let Aldo get comfortable.

Recommendation: Put the house on Aldo. He's currently around 1/3 with the bookies. With his record and ability I think thats a suitable price.

Middleweight bout: Chael Sonnen vs. Brian Stann

If this was a shit talking contest it would be a non event as Sonnen has really put himself in a class of his own in that area. From the moment he started calling out Anderson Silva last year he's been on an absolute tear. Whether it's been the Nogueira brothers or the California State Athlethic Committee; Sonnen has had some funny views. To the extent that if Sonnen is to be believed this fight is an unofficial title fight. Yes I know he's kidding but the metric has changed as for the first time in a long while Sonnen is going to be doing his talking in the Octagon. If you've not seen his most recent Q&A for the UFC Fightclub have a look at this.

Ok so that's the verbal stuff over; lets get down to the business end of things. This is most likely a Middleweight contenders bout regardless of the winner as both make extremely marketable fights with Anderson Silva should he stay at 185 for another fight. Sonnen due to his beating of Silva in 4 rounds of that fight and a rematch could do huge PPV numbers. Stann because he's got the potential to be the new captain America. No Randy will never be replaced but Stann is a war veteran and this holds him in good sway with the public.

Sonnen is an Olympic calibre wrestler and is relentless with his ground and pound but his record for finishing fights is rather poor. His last finish came against Kyacey Uscola over 4 years ago. Uscola is nearly a 50-50 fighter over his 40 plus fight career so it's not too impressive. He has also shown continued poor defense against submissions especially triangle choke variations which have accounted for over 50% of his 11 losses. Sonnen was mightily impressive against Anderson Silva but there is still question marks over the performance for two reasons. 1. His positive test for testosterone in the fight. 2. The reported rib injury to Anderson Silva. These two factors do leave a question mark over what was probably the performance of his career.

If we look at Stann we see a guy that's on a complete tear since dropping from 205 to 185. His most recent UFC loss coming at the hands of the unbeaten Mr. Wonderful Phil Davis that saw him make the decision to drop down a weight class. Since dropping down to 185 Stann has been impressive with three stoppage victories (one arm triangle sub and two nasty TKO's). Stann in my opinion has the better of his opponent on the feet but the biggest question is can he keep Sonnen from getting him down? I think at some point he is going to be on his back and we're yet to see Stann in a difficult position for a long time to see how his ground game has evolved. Still I think the ability to cause Sonnen difficulties on the feet may sway this in his benefit as we all know each fight starts standing and with the amount of time Sonnen has had out of the Octagon I think he is way too short a price with a lot of value being put on the Anderson Silva fight.

Recommendation: This should be the upset of the night 9/4 with Bet365 seems to be the best price going at this time. This will probably go the distance but don't be shocked if Sonnen does end up the victim of a TKO as Stann's conditioning is quite something to behold.

Other Main Card fights and selected prelim recommendations:

Lightweight bout: Joe Lauzon vs. Melvin Guillard

This should be Guillard's fight to lose although Lauzon may pull a shock via submission. I'd recommend Guillard heavily based on his form since switching to Greg Jackson's MMA. Currently he's around 1/3.
Recommendation: Guillard

Featherweight bout: Leonard Garcia vs. Nam Phan

Personally speaking I'd say Phan. He was robbed of a decision in their previous fight. Garcia will remain active and throw for the fences regardless but Phan is the better striker of the two and his technique should see him through. No odds are available for me at this time on this one. Phan will probably be around 4/6 I reckon when the bookmakers set the odds.
Recommendation: Nam Phan

Middleweight bout: Demian Maia vs. Jorge Santiago

I give the advantage in this fight to Maia. We've seen massive improvements in his striking game since he was the victim of a one punch knockout by Nate Marquardt. Santiago is a quality opponent but Maia's improved striking and his top of the food chain BJJ game should see him through. I suspect that there may be some value in a Maia TKO bet for this one. No odds are available at the moment.
Recommendation: Demian Maia

Lightweight bout: Anthony Pettis vs. Jeremy Stephens

Two quality strikers in need of victory to elevate them into contendership. Pettis turned down a guaranteed title shot to fight Clay Guida and was the victim of Clay's underrated wrestling game. Pettis had the highlight reel moment of 2010 and I believe if he can stay away from Stephens' heavy hands and vicious kicks that he should prevail. Stephens is coming off the back of two impressive wins of his own including a KO of Marcus Davis. I still think Pettis' dynamic striking and excellent ground game should see him through. He's currently around 4/11.
Recommendation: Anthony Pettis

With that all said I'll leave you with the kick heard all around the world and if you haven't seen it. Enjoy. If you've any comments or opinions on the selections feel free to put something in the comments.

Happy punting folks.

The Race To Redemption

2011-06-24T16:45:00.000-07:00

Alright ladies and sirs,

So here we go.. We're a few hours away from qualifying for the European GP in Valencia. Despite Vettel doing his own Charlie Sheen style WINNING. It's been an epic season full of great races. 3 years ago we'd have killed for this level of entertainment and here we are 7 races into the season with complaints of too much overtaking.. Fuck that. What we're seeing is racing throughout the field which we previously had to pray that someone made a balls of qualifying for and to race through the field.. We were left longing for a Kimi Suzuka 2005 style moment.. So far we've had more races going down to the wire; with less than 2 seconds covering the first 2 cars home more frequently than any season in recent memory. We finally have races that aren't over after the first corner! It's been great for F1 and for TV. The viewing numbers confirm it.. More and more people staying glued for the whole race and we're also seeing people start watching mid race and stay watching until the race is over.. Why you ask? PIRELLI PZEROS is why.. Pirelli where asked to make tyres that replicated the madness of Montreal 2010 and they've done it perfectly. Strategy is key again despite the lack of refuelling which I think we miss badly..Christ play around with the rules.. How interesting could the strategy game be if we allowed the cars knocked out in the first stage of qualifying to have a free refuelling strategy.. could that bring the no-hopers like Virgin, Team Lotus and Hispania into play.. Maybe not but it could open a whole new window of opportunity!

There's been a few interesting trends this season that may be worth keeping an eye on to see how they develop.

1. Lewis Hamilton. As much as I love Lewis' balls out slinging dick get out of my way or i'm going to drive you off the road style.. This season he seems to be dropping a clanger too many rather easily. It's as if he thinks he's playing Carmageddon smashing into any car he gets close to (including one that shares the same colour scene as his own most recently). Is it because he's black that he's being punished he asked.. No it's because you're meant to get past them not drive through them Lewis.

2. Williams all over the shop and slow.. Having got rid of Hulkenberg for the equally talented Moldonado (every million is the equivalent to every tenth you're slower than the other guy. If you subtract the millions from the time difference and are within a second of the faster guy.. Chances are money wins the contract). Fun time Frankie appears to be paying the price for not playing ball with BMW back in the day and selling up. The car looks bad and if Rubinho went any slower this year he'd be going backwards.. It's a sad state of affairs and what's the answer to rescue the situation? Mike Coughlan of photo copying fame. Williams are 14 years removed from their last championship and at the rate they're going they're not going to see even the podium in the near future.

3. The Prancing Horse to wheezing donkey mystery. They've gone from the most dangerous team on the grid at the end of last season to complete outsiders this season. When even Alonso looks lost you know there's something amiss. Is this a hangover from last season's championship loss in Abu Dhabi or a sign of the Prancing Horse not being able to keep up with the Raging Bulls? Only time will tell. When the sexy tone of Rob Smedley's "Felipe Baby" radio call is starting to be the highlight of most Ferrari races you've got to ask questions. If this was horse racing someone would be getting the shot gun ready to put the Prancing Horse out of it's misery. It's only a matter of time I think before you hear the fabled we're concentrating on 2012 from now on.

4. Old man Schumi getting back to what he does best. Still slow in qualifying but the old sly dog is showing signs of the racecraft that earned him 7 world titles. Admittedly I'm a huge Schumi fan in every sense of the word (I love the man and Nigel Mansell style I'd be too fat for a cockpit of an F1 car). Yes there's been signs of geriatric moves in Turkey but the race pace all too often missing last year; has returned this year..The most recent race in Canada showing the reinmeister has lost none of his touch. Schumacher has consistently gained places on the start over the last 2 seasons and there's been no sign of last season's Schumi train where he was holding up 4 or 5 cars on regular occasions. One thing that's still in serious doubt is his ability over 1 lap.. He's been outqualified 6-1 this season so far but unlike Rosberg he's managed to gain positions on his starting place and is level on points with Rosberg at this point. I'm hoping the comeback continues to gather pace. Everyone loves that sort of story and arguably there may still be a win or 2 if the conditions are right in the old dog yet. If Mercedes can give him the car to challenge it would be interesting to see what he could do.

So there we have it.. The men and teams in need of some of redeeming results and improvements. It's easy to say they can find it in time but it's not always the case. Ask any Nazi how long it took them to find the Frank family and they'll give you a dirty look (token Ann Frank joke in honour of dannymurray.blogspot.com) as well as tell you it wasn't easy.

What to expect this weekend? I have a sneaking suspicion that this could be Hamilton's weekend. McLaren were strong as hell in Monaco and Red Bull are due a bit of misery. We sort of need some divine intervention to stop the Red Bulls (God of the Tifosi or Jean Todt as he's more commonly known may provide this with the blown diffuser rule changes) and hope that Seb Vettel doesn't go disappearing in this championship like he's trying to do a championship double by stealing the world hide and seek crown off Maddie McCann. F1 has redeemed it's self massively this year thanks to Pirelli and the overtaking aids (DRS and KERS). Here's hoping they continue to help and save some of the traditionally boring races. This weekend is one of the litmus tests for this formula and hopefully it replicates the drama of Monaco without having the anti climax of a red flag that was like a case of premature ejaculation whilst receiving a blowjob; all the excitement and build up and all that was left was disappointment that it didn't end the way it should have.

I promise these will improve as I go along.

So Long for now Perverts!

per·vert (pr-vûrt)

tr.v. per·vert·ed, per·vert·ing, per·verts

1. To cause to turn away from what is right, proper, or good; corrupt.

2. To bring to a bad or worse condition; debase.

3. To put to a wrong or improper use; misuse. See Synonyms at corrupt.

4. To interpret incorrectly; misconstrue or distort: an analysis that perverts the meaning of the poem.