The Pursuit of Financial Happiness

tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5228675828988846905Thu, 22 Oct 2026 07:29:59 +0000The Pursuit of Financial HappinessAbout the accumulation to retirement and the distribution of retirementhttp://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.com (Michael J. Schussele)Blogger344125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5228675828988846905.post-5851235054488217986Tue, 29 Sep 2026 17:58:18 +00002026-09-29T12:58:18.671-05:00Krugman Confirms My Judgment of Bessent's Incompetence<p> Paul Krugman has written in <a href="https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-beclowning-of-scott-bessent">"The Beclowning of Scott Bessent"</a> that Bessent has demonstrated that he is the Baghdad Bob of Bonds confirming my conclusions in my article <a href="https://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2026/09/bessents-treasury-buybacks-are-inept.html">"Bessent's Treasury Buyback are Inept and Misguided"</a>.  Bonds have continued to rise destroying Bessent's belief he "runs the house" and can control the bond market and has proven contrary to the actions of the Federal Reserve.</p><p>Krugman observes interest rates are reaching new highs and specifically mentions AI growth as one of the culprits.  </p><p>Interest rates have multiple drivers complicated currently by tariffs, diesel prices, oil prices and the illegal Iranian undeclared war which has no achievable end point, and AI growth investment with its demand for more and more debt to fund the investment.  This affects bonds world wide.  If and when the AI Bubble bursts, bonds will suffer, AI companies will have liquidity issues, as the whole stock market declines --- and not just in the Unites States.</p><p> <a href="javascript:window.print()">Print Page</a></p>http://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2026/09/krugman-confirms-my-judgment-of.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Michael J. Schussele)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5228675828988846905.post-6972723464884900567Thu, 17 Sep 2026 04:08:19 +00002026-09-16T23:08:19.067-05:00Federal Reserve Raises, Short News Conference, Reaction, Projections September 2026<p>As expected the Federal Reserve unanimously <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/september-fed-statement-redline.html">raised</a> the benchmark rate 25 basis points to 3 3/4 - 4% from 3 1/2 -3 3/4/%.  As Warsh spoke in a short, almost 30 minutes <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XopYdkD9_OI">news conference</a> the Dow went down over 800 points as he mentioned continued inflation but later settled at over 600 points down as the Market <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html">reacted</a> to what it heard and did not hear.  The <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html">Market heard</a> mixed reasons for the raise of a strong economy, continuing high inflation, and transitory issues with Middle East mentioned by Warsh.</p><p><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20260916.pdf">Projections</a> by participants (Warsh refused to participate in projections) indicate another raise by year end with some projecting two raises in near future after 2026 year end.  </p><p><a href="https://econjared.substack.com/p/a-quick-q-and-a-on-the-feds-rate">Economically</a>, raising rate does not moderate inflation caused by transitory issues and interest rates should continue to trend higher as inflation is too high and has been <a href="https://newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/a-tale-of-three-kevins">too high for too long</a>.</p><p>Futures are higher tonight but we will see if the market sell off continues or temporarily bounces up on Thursday. </p><p> <a href="javascript:window.print()">Print Page</a></p>http://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2026/09/federal-reserve-raises-short-news.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Michael J. Schussele)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5228675828988846905.post-3071361464661241726Tue, 15 Sep 2026 16:18:34 +00002026-09-15T11:18:34.916-05:00Will the Fed Surprise the Market and Hold Tomorrow?<p>The Market is expecting the Fed to raise the benchmark interest rate 25 basis points, but the economic analysis of the different economic data is mixed on whether raising or holding are any better choices or any less harmful.</p><p><a href="https://econjared.substack.com/p/the-fed-looks-likely-to-hike-rates">Hold, raise -- bad time to surprise market?</a></p><p><a href="https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/something-is-shifting-in-the-inflation">Hiking into disinflation as economic insurance?</a> </p><p><a href="https://cepr.net/publications/a-quick-note-on-inflation-and-the-fed/">Are transitory political policies beyond the control of the Fed driving inflation?</a></p><p><a href="https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/costly-medicine">Raise or hold will Warsh explain and provide dot plot and forward guidance?</a></p><p>If Warsh does not provide some forward guidance and data plot, and he has not done so in the past and is disposed to less communication, the Market will punish him again and more strongly than the last time he was not communicative in the Fed news conference. </p><p><a href="javascript:window.print()">Print Page</a></p>http://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2026/09/will-fed-surprise-market-and-hold.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Michael J. Schussele)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5228675828988846905.post-7114953713280029412Thu, 10 Sep 2026 02:43:36 +00002026-09-09T21:43:36.671-05:00Bessent's Treasury Buybacks are Inept and MIsguided<p>Treasury Secretary Bessent announced a <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/09/treasury-bessent-bond-buybacks-borrowing-costs-01068655">second </a>buyback of U.S. treasuries triple the size of the previous $2 billion and the bond market <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/09/business/economy/treasury-repurchase-bessent.html">did not appreciate</a> it with interest rates going up in reaction.  Bessent was defiant in his announcement asserting the bond market investors do not understand the fundamentals and he was going to rule the house.</p><p>Bessent has failed to learn from the first buyback that lowered interest rates for one day and then went back to where they <a href="https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/09/bloomberg-bessents-bond-gains-wiped-out-as-treasury-yields-jump-again">were</a>.  It was seen as stirring <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/21/bessents-bond-gambit-aimed-at-calming-markets-is-instead-stirring-inflation-worries-.html">inflation</a> fears and a misunderstanding of what drives bond market <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/scott-bessent-interventions-in-currency-bond-markets-ineffective-by-stephen-s-roach-2026-08">fundamentals</a> as well as arousing <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/aug/29/scott-bessant-us-economy-donald-trump">international concern</a> about the United States fiscal credibility.  The Norwegian Sovereign Fund <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/04/worlds-biggest-sovereign-wealth-fund-plans-to-cut-treasury-holdings.html">reallocated</a> out of U.S. treasuries into other U.S. bonds and mortgage securities.  The Dutch Central Bank <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/03/netherlands-gold-transfer-us-canada-uk.html">withdrew</a> gold out of the U.S. to London citing growing geopolitical risks.  This is what happens when the Treasury acts as if it does not understand all the drivers of treasury bond rates and that not all of those <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/20/business/treasury-bond-market-interventionist-tactics.html">drivers</a> are under the control of the Treasury.  </p><p>This misunderstanding and failure to understand all of the drivers of treasury bond interest rates was only intensified by the Treasury's prior intervention to support the Japanese yen which  the market and economists found incomprehensible.  While Bessent was fearful of a failure of the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/what-is-yen-carry-trade-2026-09-09/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_campaign=Daily-Briefing&utm_term=090926&utm_content=090926&lctg=61af04a4a6b6507d9f39add6&user_email=ec6ce682c709852e11695088381634725e5032398dcd257c2abaade32d17b9f4">yen carry trade</a> leading to the Japanese government selling U.S. treasuries driving interest rates higher and possibly leading to a currency crisis which could become contagious in Asia, he ignored the current increase in foreign domestic investment, the Japanese <a href="https://billmitchell.org/blog/?p=63364">economy</a>, bond market trading profit seeking fundamentals, and the AI growth driving demand for cash in the U.S. bond market.  In his recent announcement of the second bond buyback, he doubled down on how correct he was and he knew more than anyone else.</p><p>Bessent is acting as if he has drunk the Kool-Aid from the Presidential trough and the world does not find it comforting and raises doubts of the U.S. as a safe haven.</p><p> </p><p></p><p><a href="javascript:window.print()">Print Page</a></p>http://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2026/09/bessents-treasury-buybacks-are-inept.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Michael J. Schussele)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5228675828988846905.post-4589959345070829172Fri, 04 Sep 2026 01:09:24 +00002026-09-04T22:01:21.926-05:00Michael Pettis and China's Economy and and the Great Rebalancing in Global Trade<p> Michael Pettis has published two articles recently with the <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/china-financial-markets/2026/08/who-paid-for-chinas-last-debt-cleanup-and-who-will-pay-for-the-next">first</a> dealing with China's debt economy and how it has dealt with it in the past and the problems in dealing with it now going forward and a <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/great-rebalancing-coming#">second </a>article on China's trade surplus and the United States and European trade issues which are parts of the coming trade crisis and global rebalancing.</p><p>I think he makes a mistake in analyzing the United States abstractly rather than currently, because the Unites States no longer has a coherent rational trade policy.  The chaos TACO tariffs and failure to appreciate allies have been created by an age demented narcissistic making decisions on gut feelings while incapable of acknowledging reality and whether he is an emperor with or without clothes.</p><p> The Unites States no longer has international credibility and the global bond markets know it. </p><p> </p><p><a href="javascript:window.print()">Print Page</a></p>http://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2026/09/michael-pettis-and-chinas-economy-and.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Michael J. Schussele)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5228675828988846905.post-8789190750732303499Sun, 30 Aug 2026 18:23:58 +00002026-08-30T13:23:58.245-05:00Jackson Hole Federal Reserve Symposiun 2026 and Financial Innovation<p> Here are the <a href="https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/jackson-hole-economic-symposium/2026/">links</a> to the various papers and handouts on financial innovation, tokenism, international monetary system as well as Warsh's opening remarks.</p><p>While none of the papers reached out and grabbed at my understanding of these issues, they are worth reading.</p><p>Most reporting has focused on Chairman Warsh's remarks which many interpreted as indicating future rate hikes are possible.  I found them to be equivocal floundering in what comprises the best set of indicators to determine appropriate action and particularly fuzzy with respect to the importance or use of forward guidance and transparency which he seems to dislike.  The <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/28/kevin-warsh-jackson-hole-federal-reserve-inflation.html">markets</a> disagree with him while taking the possible hike of interest rates seriously, particularly considering the comments of Federal Reserve regional presidents.</p><p> Here is one<a href="https://apnews.com/article/inflation-warsh-federal-reserve-d138f675aaa88c91b9dad6fd5823959d"> article</a> providing takeaways from Warsh's comments and and another <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/aug/28/kevin-warsh-federal-reserve-inflation">international</a> article which includes reporting on his reluctance to provide any forward guidance on rate hikes and how he inexplicably painted a rosy economic picture which is not consistent with recent economic data.</p><p> </p><p><a href="javascript:window.print()">Print Page</a></p>http://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2026/08/jackson-hole-federal-reserve-symposiun.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Michael J. Schussele)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5228675828988846905.post-6109887500839182183Sat, 01 Aug 2026 03:46:55 +00002026-07-31T22:46:55.238-05:00Links in a Time of War and Corruption 8/1/26<p><a href="https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/midweek-update-21-iran-is-toying">Iran plays US weakness</a></p><p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/iran-get-chinese-shoulder-launched-missile-systems-weeks-sources-say-2026-07-29/">China continues to arm Iran </a></p><p><a href="https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/07/28/russia-continues-to-aid-iran-in-war-with-us-ukraine-says/">Russia continues to provide satellite targeting of US forces to Iran </a></p><p><a href="https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/07/estimates-of-current-inventories-of-patriot-and-thaad-interceptors">Depleting US interceptor stockpiles </a></p><p><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/options/articles/wall-street-races-sell-spacex-120642606.html">Propping SpaceX falling stock with financial products </a></p><p><a href="https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/5-charts-what-watch-spacex-earnings?utm_source=eloqua&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MorningDigest&utm_content=None_76348&MorningDigestUS&utm_id=39998">SpaceX earnings August 4 unleashing insider selling August 6</a></p><p><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/07/trumps-growth-hegemony-decline-britain/687904/">Decline and fall of a superpower </a></p><p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/29/business/economy/trump-tariffs-china.html">Driving business to China </a></p><p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/30/business/economy/trump-tariffs-exemptions.html">Forced labor and chaos tariffs </a></p><p><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/2026/07/trump-todd-blanche-nomination-slush-fund/688133/?utm_campaign=atlantic-daily-newsletter&utm_content=20260731&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&lctg=686415df39fcd18b820eee6e&utm_term=The%20Atlantic%20Daily">Blanche or money - which will Trump choose</a> </p><p> <a href="https://joycevance.substack.com/p/block-blanche-day">Blanche, Trump-Epstein files, and the fraudulent fruits of tax immunity</a></p><p><a href="https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2026/07/30/congress/finance-republicans-kill-bid-to-block-trump-audit-immunity-deal-01017050">Senate Finance Committee Republicans block killing fraudulent tax immunity </a></p><p><a href="https://electionlawblog.org/?p=157699">The Boss wants His money </a></p><p></p><p><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/2026/07/snap-deadline-coming-crisis/688126/">Children do not need to eat </a></p><p><a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-administration-end-medicare-part-121200737.html"> Prescription drugs are for people with money </a></p><p><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/2026/07/china-iran-usa-oil-prices/688086/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-atlantic-am&utm_term=The%20Atlantic%20AM">Great Chinese Oil Mystery </a></p><p><a href="https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Rushes-to-Secure-Russian-Oil-as-Middle-East-Supply-Risks-Escalate.html"> Russian Oil speaks Chinese</a></p><p> </p><p>  <a href="javascript:window.print()">Print Page</a></p>http://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2026/07/links-in-time-of-war-and-corruption-8126.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Michael J. Schussele)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5228675828988846905.post-6488222556183577361Thu, 30 Jul 2026 04:09:53 +00002026-07-30T22:15:53.659-05:00The Blanche-Trump IRS "settlement" Is Collusion<p><span> </span>On 15-16 July 2026 during his Senate confirmation hearing, Todd Blanche repeatedly violated a court order which prohibited the use of the word "settlement" to be used in any official hearing of any kind in describing the private resolution of a lawsuit improperly advanced in Federal Court by President Trump by non-adverse parties. The <a href="https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.flsd.706172/gov.uscourts.flsd.706172.106.0.pdf">order</a> also found the resolution made without the knowledge of the Court was a collusion between non-adverse parties who had common goals.</p><p><span> </span>Additionally, Blanche also wrongly asserted that the resolution's addendum, which essentially gave Trump IRS audit immunity for any past tax returns of his, any of his over 500 business entities, and his two sons up to the date of the document, was common practice. The IRS has never granted audit immunity. The you can hope for is a resolution of "No Change", which means there is very little chance of another audit of that tax return --- unless evidence of fraud is later found.</p><p><span> </span>While politicians and pundits have focused on the unjustified $1.776 billion fund created by the <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1441201/dl?inline">Private Resolution</a> which would be used for distributions to <a href="https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/may-19-2026">third parties unrelated</a> to the case, because it is <a href="https://joycevance.substack.com/p/kleptocracy">US government money being used for purely personal political purposes</a> and has been called a "slush" fund, the <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1441216/dl">Addendum</a> is far worse and more ominous, because it gives the store away in not only<span></span></p><a href="http://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2026/07/the-blanche-trump-irs-settlement-is.html#more"></a>http://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2026/07/the-blanche-trump-irs-settlement-is.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Michael J. Schussele)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5228675828988846905.post-2057436055709616217Wed, 08 Jul 2026 14:40:49 +00002026-07-08T09:40:49.304-05:00Chaos Tariffs Pass-Through Price Increases Continuing<p> The Chaos Tariffs will see future price <a href="https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/07/more-tariff-pass-through-is-in-the-pipeline/">increases </a>from 44% to 47% of  manufacturing and service businesses.</p><p><a href="https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/who-is-paying-for-the-2025-u-s-tariffs/">90%</a> of the burden of tariffs have fallen on consumers and US firms.  How businesses pass-through tariffs to maintain steady profits has long been <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr1062.html">recognized</a> and the pass-through in 2025 was <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/the-slow-climb-how-tariffs-gradually-raised-retail-prices-in-2025-20260305.html">predictable</a>.</p><p>As the sequential roll out, waffling, and TACO approach to Chaos Tariffs, while profitable for Trump's "blind" trust day trading (21,000 trades in 2025), has demonstrated the <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/detecting-tariff-effects-on-consumer-prices-in-real-time-part-II-20260408.html">cumulative effect</a> of tariff pass-through on prices.</p><p> The continued tariff policies, despite what the courts say, is consistent with fundamental dementia thinking.</p><p><a href="javascript:window.print()">Print Page</a></p>http://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2026/07/chaos-tariffs-pass-through-price.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Michael J. Schussele)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5228675828988846905.post-8552419435256017686Mon, 22 Jun 2026 00:50:12 +00002026-06-21T19:55:05.393-05:00Space X stock VWAP almost underwater<p> After five days Space X closed at $185 after a 20% decline and now has a volume-weighted average price of  $181.71 making the average post-IPO buyer almost underwater.</p><p>This stock is vastly over priced with an actual fair market value of $62.</p><p>If you have any etfs or index funds in your 401(k), IRA, or other investment accounts which track the Nasdaq 100, you are now exposed to Space X and increased possible market volatility. </p><p>To refinance a bridge loan used to purchase xAI earlier this year, Space X is preparing to issue $20 billion in bonds, which would be one of the largest corporate debt deals in recent history. </p><p> </p><p><a href="javascript:window.print()">Print Page</a></p>http://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2026/06/space-x-stock-vwap-almost-underwater.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Michael J. Schussele)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5228675828988846905.post-5647191839335079063Thu, 11 Jun 2026 19:32:35 +00002026-06-11T14:32:35.440-05:00Avoid Space X IPO<p>The Space X IPO is priced at $135 per share, which is approximately <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/why-we-think-spacex-ipo-is-overvalued">twice</a> the actual value of the proposed company, and the parts of the proposed company are all high spending revenue losers making the <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/financials-look-reckless-lifting-xais-hood-spacex-ipo">financials very risky</a>, although the data centers may be a revenue producer in the future (do you believe in the AI bubble?).</p><p>Elon Musk will have <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/spacex-ipo-investors-long-list-unfriendly-shareholder-policies?utm_source=eloqua&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=stockstrategist&utm_content=None_74802&utm_id=39075">85% control</a> with a dual class shareholder structure limiting any shareholder voice, creating Musk conflicts of interest combined with a Musk "friendly" board,  and it has a <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/how-spacexs-tiered-lockup-aims-help-post-ipo-trading?utm_source=eloqua&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=stockstrategist&utm_content=None_74802&utm_id=39075">tiered lock up </a>multiple period allowing stock sells well before the usual 180 day lock up: first is 20% two days after its first June 2026 earnings report and another 10% if stock trades 30% above IPO price for five of the ten days leading up to the first earnings release, then an ability to sell 7%, without respect to trading price, on each of 70, 60, 105, 120, and 135 days after IPO, 28% after the September 2026 3rd Quarter earnings report, with the tiered lock up ending after 180 days.</p><p> While Musk and "certain large investors" are locked up for 366 days and no insider can sell into the IPO.</p><p>About 4,400 current former Space X <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/10/technology/spacex-ipo-employee-millionaires.html">employees</a> will become millionaires and there are at least several Trump <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/trump-officials-held-millions-dollars-114500115.html">government officials</a> who hold Space X shares as well as <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/donald-trump-jr-1789-firm-invests-elon-musk-spacex-1235293224/">Trump Jr</a> through 1789 Capital which owns xAI and Space X stock.</p><p>While it is normal for at least 10% of stock to be available for retail purchase, Musk has insisted 30% be available (with retail investors required to be qualified with as little as $2000 in their account) which should create a great sucking noise in the Market.</p><p>Musk's money losing companies need money and Musk is willing to take your money on his very sparse terms and if you keep your mouth shut and suck it up. </p><p> </p><p><a href="javascript:window.print()">Print Page</a></p>http://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2026/06/avoid-space-x-ipo.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Michael J. Schussele)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5228675828988846905.post-3024225449672110585Thu, 12 Mar 2026 07:32:00 +00002026-03-12T02:32:36.306-05:00Trump Accounts Cannot Fund Retirement<p> If you go to the government Trump Accounts <a href="https://trumpaccounts.gov/">website</a>, you will find misleading unrealistic results for contributions, such as just $1000 growing to over $200,000 by age 55.  This assumes a 10% annual rate of return.  Forecasts of annual stock market rate of return range from 3.1 to 6.7% (as of January 2026) over the next ten years.  The government projection does not adjust for inflation or taxes upon withdrawal.</p><p>Assuming a very optimistic 6.7%, after adjusting for inflation and 12% tax upon withdrawal, a $1000 contribution would yield $46,000 at age 55, which <a href="https://www.aei.org/economics/trump-administration-presents-grossly-exaggerated-projections-of-trump-accounts-payoffs/">would be only</a> $8000 in today's purchasing power.</p><p> Additionally, mathematically, the 10% annual rate of return is <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/120513/comparing-pe-eps-and-earnings-yield.asp">economically unsustainable</a>.  This can be determined by using the reciprocal of the <a href="https://www.wallstreetprep.com/knowledge/earnings-yield/">PE ratio</a>.  The reciprocal of the current PE ratio of 40 would be a sustainable return (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/120513/comparing-pe-eps-and-earnings-yield.asp">earnings yield</a>) of 2.5%.  The PE ratio would have to be substantially better to provide a 10% annual return.</p><p><a href="javascript:window.print()">Print Page</a></p>http://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2026/03/trump-accounts-cannot-fund-retirement.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Michael J. Schussele)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5228675828988846905.post-1775473014898532708Sun, 21 Dec 2025 18:29:00 +00002025-12-21T12:29:28.935-06:00Trump Savings Accounts Are Inefficient<p>We have previously <a href="https://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2025/08/trump-savings-account-rules-limits-and.html">written</a> on the rules and limits of Trump Savings Accounts.  It has become quickly apparent that people, even low income families if they have the disposable income, would be better off contributing to a 529 Plan or, when the child works, to a Roth IRA.</p><p>Contributions are not tax deductible and any withdrawals before age 59 1/2 are taxable.</p><p>If the government is going to fund $1000, if you apply for it, to newborn children within a limited time period to advance one individual's political advertising, you should take advantage of it, but that amount alone will only grow to about $5800 by age 18.  </p><p>How may low income families are going to go to a brokerage where no one who makes their living selling has any time to place them in an indexed fund with an expense not above .1%?  How many low income families would go on line or call to a fund provider like Fidelity or Vanguard to set up a Trump Account?</p><p> The efforts by the Administration to <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/20/treasury-hopes-to-juice-trump-accounts-with-appeals-to-philanthropists-corporations-00698179">cajole</a> business leaders, wealthy individuals, and other organizations who want to stay or be in the good graces of a current president to make contributions to other people's Trump Saving Accounts is consistent with political corruption.</p><p>It is totally inappropriate for a current President to attach their name to any government program, government building, government check, or banner hanging on a government building or property in a republican constitutional democracy.  The President is not the Government.  It is illegal government subsidized political advertising.</p><p>Morningstar has a<a href="https://www.morningstar.com/personal-finance/6-reasons-trump-savings-account-falls-short?utm_source=eloqua&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MorningDigest&utm_content=None_70281&utm_id=36619"> concise article</a> on the 6 reasons a Trump Savings Account is not an efficient investment vehicle.</p><p> </p><p> </p><p><a href="javascript:window.print()">Print Page</a></p>http://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2025/12/trump-savings-accounts-are-inefficient.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Michael J. Schussele)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5228675828988846905.post-3056577570996785800Wed, 10 Dec 2025 06:22:00 +00002025-12-10T00:22:51.438-06:00Is the Federal Reserve Approaching the Neutral Nominal Policy Rate?<p>The economist Tom Lawler had an interesting article in the Calculated Risk Newsletter on R* -- the Neutral Interest Rate.</p><p>Basically, if one looks at the average best guesses for the current neutral real  rate of interest, a 25 basis point cut in  target federal funds rate range, it would be approximately close to a neutral nominal policy rate.</p><p></p><p>This would  leave little room to tolerate any future increase in inflation without requiring an increase in the federal funds rate range.</p><p>A 25 basis point cut has been baked in the market for this December meeting which would make the federal funds target rate range 3.50-3.75%.  Personally, I would vote to hold for more data as tariffs seep into prices, but the 25 basis point cut is very probable.</p><p>Here is the <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-more-on-the-neutral-interest">article</a> at Calculated Risk Newsletter. </p><p> </p><p><a href="javascript:window.print()">Print Page</a></p>http://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2025/12/is-federal-reserve-approaching-neutral.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Michael J. Schussele)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5228675828988846905.post-1467495518266271006Thu, 13 Nov 2025 05:54:00 +00002025-11-12T23:54:09.233-06:00Looking for the Missing Economic Federal Data<p> During the shutdown everyone has been forced to seek sources to take the place of the US government missing economic data reports and the problem will continue briefly as the White House stated today (Wednesday 12 November) that October labor data <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/us-labor-department-urged-prioritize-november-employment-cpi-data-post-shutdown-2025-11-12/">may never be released</a> and the Department of Labor is being urged to prioritize November data.</p><p>There are a variety of sources for alternative estimates and information and here are a few of them:</p><p>for labor market indicators <a href="https://macromostly.substack.com/">Guy's Substack</a> </p><p>for economic takes on published pieces from variety of sources providing an <a href="https://cepr.net/publications/weakening-labor-market/">alternative critical analysis</a>  there is <a href="https://cepr.net/series/dean-bakers-beat-the-press/">Beat the Press</a></p><p> for some proprietary economic indicators there is <a href="https://www.carlyle.com/media-room/news-release-archive/carlyle-releases-proprietary-us-economic-indicators-government-shutdown">Carlyle</a></p><p>for a variety of very professional economic data with a variety of technical graphs there is <a href="https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/11/labor-market-indicators-amidst-the-shutdown">Econbrowser</a></p><p>for national and international economic information there is <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2025/10/global-economic-outlook-october-2025">S&P Global</a> </p><p><a href="https://econjared.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=substack_profile"> Jared's Substack</a> provides professional economic analysis and political economy</p><p>the Federal Reserve <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/publications/beige-book-default.htm">Beige Report</a> is a useful source of anecdotal economic information from the different Federal Reserve districts </p><p><a href="https://bonddad.blogspot.com/">The Bonddad Blog</a> provides economic analysis from a market perspective</p><p>there are several Federal Reserve blogs at different Federal Reserve Districts like <a href="https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/">Liberty Street Economics</a>, <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/">On the Economy Blog</a>, and <a href="https://www.atlantafed.org/blogs/macroblog/2025/10/01/digging-deeper-into-declining-labor-force-participation">Macroblog</a> providing economic and macro monetary as well as banking and liquidity information</p><p><a href="https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/"> CalculatedRisk</a> is a valuable source of economic information and housing information</p><p> for longer professional economic information and analysis there is the excellent<a href="https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-us-economy-is-in-worse-shape"> Paul Krugman's Substack</a></p><p> </p><p><a href="javascript:window.print()">Print Page</a></p>http://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2025/11/looking-for-missing-economic-federal.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Michael J. Schussele)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5228675828988846905.post-64161767788842553Fri, 31 Oct 2025 20:26:00 +00002025-11-01T19:33:04.883-05:00SNAP Benefits and the Politics of Cruelty<p> To be very blunt, the federal government has the the contingency emergency funds in the amount of 5-6 billion dollars available and the <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/snaps-contingency-reserve-is-available-for-regular-snap-benefits-as-usda">legal authority</a> and historical record to provide funding for SNAP benefits during the current government shutdown.  Any statement otherwise is a lie -- pure and simple deception.</p><p>The current budget bill had already cut benefits and the administration's refusal to fund SNAP, which has evolved since 1961 and existed in another form from 1933 to 1943, during the shut down will deprive 42 million Americans of whom approximately 40% are children and further composed of the disabled, senior citizens, and the families which care for them.  This will <a href="https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-hunger-games-begin">particularly affect Republican states</a> and their Republican constituents.  It will also negatively affect <a href="https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/10/macro-implications-of-withholding-contingency-funding-of-snap">GDP</a> by approximately $7 billion with reduced <a href="https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/october-25-2025">spending at local food stores</a> and supermarkets on top of a<a href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61823"> $7 to 14 billion government shutdown affect</a> on GDP.</p><p>Trying to blame Democrats who are trying, in the only way available to them, to condition a new continuing resolution, which is <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5576663-democrats-decline-clean-funding/">not clean</a> in the actual use of appropriated funds, to continue affordable health insurance under the ACA which were cut in the "Big Beautiful Bill" and would <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/10/30/upshot/obamacare-subsidies-new-prices.html">raise premiums</a> an <a href="https://www.kff.org/">average of 114% </a>if the 2025 subsidies were not continued, affecting<a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/health/by-the-numbers-harmful-republican-megabill-will-take-health-coverage-away-from"> 15 million people</a>.  The shut down <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/us/politics/trump-shutdown-snap-food-stamps-aid.html">will also not fund</a> LIHEAP, senior citizen housing subsidies, WIC, and Headstart.</p><p>While some states are making efforts to provide some funding and support while others are not, two Federal <a href="https://apnews.com/article/snap-shutdown-lawsuits-deadline-4af8b0dec6cd31cddd023cc99c131b73">judges have ordered</a> the Federal government to use the contingency emergency funds.  However, this administration always appeals legal rulings and delays taking action and has ignored the appropriation uses and amounts approved by Congress.  Children, the disabled, senior citizens, and families will go with the economic resources to buy food and stay marginally healthy.</p><p>Children, the disabled, senior citizens, and the families which care for them are now being held hostage by a Republican administration, a Republican House of Representatives, and a Republican Senate to deny American families affordable health insurance.  This is the Country in which we now live.</p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p><a href="javascript:window.print()">Print Page</a></p>http://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2025/10/snap-benefits-and-politics-of-cruelty.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Michael J. Schussele)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5228675828988846905.post-2911982532387069979Thu, 16 Oct 2025 18:05:00 +00002025-10-16T13:05:26.341-05:00Medicare Portal Errors Providing Misleading Information on Medicare Advantage Plans<p>The Washington Post has reported that the Medicare Portal open today <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/insurance/errors-in-new-medicare-plan-portal-mislead-seniors-on-coverage/ar-AA1OyuLY?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds">is providing misleading</a> information on Medicare Advantage plans and the government is "rushing" to fix it. </p><p>All seniors seeking Medicare Advantage plans should double check by looking at independent comparative sites such as <a href="https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/medicare/medicare-advantage-plans-how-to-compare">NerdWallet</a>, seek assistance from your state health insurance information program (SHIP), confirm the information with the issuing companies, and immediately review the program plan upon receipt and cancel if it is not what you thought would meet your needs.</p><p>Here is the Washington Post <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2025/10/15/medicare-advantage-open-enrollment-directory-errors/">article</a> which is paywalled.  I no longer subscribe to The Washington Post as it has abandoned journalistic ethical independent editorial policy.</p><p> </p><p><a href="javascript:window.print()">Print Page</a></p>http://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2025/10/medicare-portal-errors-providing.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Michael J. Schussele)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5228675828988846905.post-3656982958038226935Thu, 16 Oct 2025 03:13:00 +00002025-10-15T22:13:26.348-05:00Fed Chairman Powell's Speech and Today's Beige Report on Economy<p>Yesterday, 14 October 25, Fed Chairman Powell gave a speech the stock market interpreted as an indication the Fed will cut rates again.  In actuality, he said inflation is trending up short term goods prices reflecting tariffs but not yet effecting long term and employment remains low despite wage gains likely due to lower immigration and labor force participation.  This indicates no risk-free path between inflation and employment and a need to base future monetary action on economic data every month.  Here is his <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20251014a.htm">speech</a>.</p><p>Today, the Fed Beige Report  on the economy came out showing muted employment demand and increased input costs from a variety of sources including tariff input increased costs, of which not all are being passed through to prices.  The gives a brief overview and then Fed District by District particulars.  Here is the <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20251015.pdf">Beige Report</a>.</p><p> Give the missing government economic information not being issued during the government shutdown and a purposeful deconstruction of governmental services, anything helps.</p><p>The September BIS <a href="https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2509.htm">Quarterly Report</a> provides some global economic insights. </p><p>The IMF <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/WEO">World Economic Outlook</a> for this month is out providing some GDP and inflation data.  The <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2025/10/14/global-financial-stability-report-october-2025?cid=ca-com-homepage-AM2025-GFSREA2025002">Global Financial Stability Report</a> is also available.</p><p>It preferable to read the actual speeches and reports than rely on news interpretations.  Unfortunately, the stock market is more easily moved by "news" than the hard data and context. </p><p> </p><p><a href="javascript:window.print()">Print Page</a></p>http://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2025/10/fed-chairman-powells-speech-and-todays.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Michael J. Schussele)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5228675828988846905.post-8900086757153749262Thu, 09 Oct 2025 17:17:00 +00002025-10-09T12:17:38.683-05:00IRS Increasing 2026 Tax Brackets and Standard Deductions<p> The 2026 IRS <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/09/2026-federal-tax-brackets.html">tax brackets</a>, standard deductions, and long term capital gains have been <a href="https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-releases-tax-inflation-adjustments-for-tax-year-2026-including-amendments-from-the-one-big-beautiful-bill">inflation adjusted</a>.</p><p>Married filing jointly standard deduction increases to $32,200.</p><p>All gold profits are taxable up to 28%, which is higher than the <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-the-2026-capital-gains-tax-rates-for-each-income-level-see-where-you-fit-in-a68a8bf0?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAgtMtE3CWBfe1iDJBLVU07xpwCNTzyQMHEbHBOTSQSpR2TADka96uZr2YWKfFI%3D&gaa_ts=68e7ed7e&gaa_sig=jvCGHfuw3h04E6HbaWIiPRC0ltUxypECCcGuGT3zq817DUCiXZHI857TUWC7AEu1wr5oNXzczqtU3YfoxRikSg%3D%3D">capital gains tax</a>. The net investment-income tax is not inflation adjusted.</p><p> </p><p><a href="javascript:window.print()">Print Page</a></p>http://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2025/10/irs-increasing-2026-tax-brackets-and.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Michael J. Schussele)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5228675828988846905.post-7031221349755911084Wed, 01 Oct 2025 00:55:00 +00002025-09-30T19:55:02.026-05:00EJ Antoni BLS nomination withdrawn<p><a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-bureau-of-labor-statistics-ej-antoni-980db022f9069e9bf0106b41703ee4ab"> AP</a> is reporting that the nomination of EJ Antoni as Chief of Bureau of Labor Statistics has been withdrawn by the White House.</p><p>As we, and many economists, have <a href="https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/5228675828988846905/3063074484654991058">written</a> is was particularly unqualified.  </p><p>Considering he was nominated because Trump was unhappy with accurate statistics, we can only wonder if someone <a href="https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/09/white-house-pulls-ej-antoni-nomination-to-bls-chief">worse</a> or more nefarious will be nominated in place of Antoni.</p><p> </p><p><a href="javascript:window.print()">Print Page</a></p>http://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2025/09/ej-antoni-bls-nomination-withdrawn.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Michael J. Schussele)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5228675828988846905.post-1867267413071095902Mon, 25 Aug 2025 20:21:00 +00002025-08-25T15:21:52.480-05:00Federal Reserve Jackson Hole Symposium 2025<p> <a href="https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/jackson-hole-economic-symposium/2025/">Here</a> are the speeches, video remarks, papers and handouts as well as handouts and remarks by the ECB, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan to supplement panel discussions.</p><p>Expectations based on Powell's presentation  will result in rate cut at the next meeting is probably over exuberant.  It will be data driven and, if inflation is up and employment is down, it will be a fifty/fifty call for a 25 basis point cut or a hold.</p><p>I particularly like the Saturday papers, especially the one on the Taylor rule.</p><p> The Powell, Lagarde, and Ueda comments are instructive.</p><p><a href="javascript:window.print()">Print Page</a></p>http://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2025/08/federal-reserve-jackson-hole-symposium.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Michael J. Schussele)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5228675828988846905.post-1613179945832592189Fri, 22 Aug 2025 01:00:00 +00002025-08-21T20:00:18.521-05:00Krugman on Understanding Inequality<p> On Paul Krugman's <a href="https://paulkrugman.substack.com/">substack</a>, he has seven posts on Understanding Inequality which are paywalled.</p><p>Inequality has been a intrinsic economic interest of mine as well as social economic change, however peaceful, evolving, or violent it might be.  You can read Saez, Zucman, Piketty, Stiglitz, as well as others and they are all struggling with multiple interacting variables which change in real time.  I wish I had had the opportunity to study with James Tobin.</p><p>Consequently, understanding economic inequality causes and consequences is an unending project requiring different inquiries and perspectives.</p><p>Paul Krugman is adding his voice in a mainstream format for everyman to think about inequality and his seven posts, not paywalled, can <a href="https://stonecenter.gc.cuny.edu/people/krugman-paul/">be found</a>  at the CUNY Stone Center.  When you follow the redirect and page down on Krugman's page you will come to Selected Work where you will choose News and Commentary.  There you will find the posts listed down from the seventh.</p><p><a href="javascript:window.print()">Print Page</a></p>http://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2025/08/krugman-on-understanding-inequality.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Michael J. Schussele)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5228675828988846905.post-5180070989623919880Thu, 21 Aug 2025 20:43:00 +00002025-08-21T15:43:32.590-05:00Trump Savings Account Rules, Limits, and Deadlines<p>The Trump Savings Account is limited to children born between 1/1/25 and 12/31/28 to maximize the political brand advertising.</p><p>Contributions cannot begin until July 4, 2026. Annual contributions must be made by 12 /31 of each year.</p><p>Contributions by parent, guardians, and other individuals are not tax deductible and create a non-taxable basis when withdrawn. Contributions by employers, federal government, or charitable gifts are create a taxable basis when withdrawn.  Investment earnings are taxable when withdrawn. There are annual limits.</p><p>At age 18 it becomes an IRA with mixed basis assets.</p><p>The accounts must follow typical IRA format and investments are limited to mutual funds and etfs tracking a qualified index with a fee no larger than 0.1% of total assets.</p><p>For a concise explanation of the ten things you should know about Trump Savings Accounts, here is a  <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/financial-advisors/10-things-know-about-trump-savings-account?utm_source=eloqua&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=AdvisorDigest&utm_content=None_66497&utm_id=34558">Morningstar article</a>.</p><p><a href="javascript:window.print()">Print Page</a></p>http://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2025/08/trump-savings-account-rules-limits-and.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Michael J. Schussele)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5228675828988846905.post-6192337811002427007Thu, 14 Aug 2025 05:31:00 +00002025-08-14T00:31:06.420-05:00When Incompetent People Have Power: Paul Krugman's Hannah Arendt"s Law<p>Since we wrote our <a href="https://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2025/08/on-why-incompetent-people-think-they.html">Monday post on E.J. Antoni </a>being nominated as commissioner of the BLS and as an example of an unqualified person being picked by an incompetent person who thinks they are smart, there has been a flood of economists critical of his qualifications. In that post we shared a <a href="https://larspsyll.wordpress.com/2025/08/10/the-dunning-kruger-effect-2/">video</a>, via the economist Lars P. Syll, which explained why incompetent people think they are smart which has been named the Dunning-Kruger Effect.</p><p>Economists are very concerned about this appointment, because the economic data produced by the BLS is internationally recognized as a gold standard of credible economic data used by business, economists, and government to make vital decisions as we <a href="https://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2025/08/reliable-credible-governmental.html">wrote in a post</a> on August 2nd.  The Antoni appointment and President Trump's refusal to accept real world data directly threatens the credibility of US government data and the international credibility of the United States government.</p><p>Among other economists, Paul Krugman has added his <a href="https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/hackification">voice in a Substack post</a> and used a quotation from Hannah Arendt's book on Totalitarianism to formulate what he calls "Arendt’s Law: Totalitarian and wannabe totalitarian regimes only hire incompetent hacks."  Krugman's Arendt's Law could very well be a subatantive corollary to the Dunnung-Kruger Effect.</p><p> Trump has attacked the Federal Reserve, Law Firms, Judges, Universities, governmental cultural institutions, private sector economists, and corporate CEOs as well as militarily occupied US cities.  He has no intention of stopping until he controls what we see, hear, learn, say, and do and will tolerate no questioning much less resistance to his <a href="https://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2025/08/trumps-economic-march-towards-failed.html">chaos tariffs economic march</a> towards failed state authoritarianism.</p><p>Just as he will not accept jobs data, he will not accept<a href="https://econjared.substack.com/p/july-cpi-mostly-as-expected-including"> CPI showing</a> the beginning of tariff cost pass through to consumers from businesses, which is why he demanded Goldman Sachs fire their economist for a<a href="https://fortune.com/2025/08/11/trump-foreign-countries-eat-tariffs-pass-through-consumers/"> report</a> that two-thirds of the cost of tariffs will pass to consumers by the end of this year indicating a year end inflation rate of 3.2%.</p><p>When challenged or threatened, Trump provokes and diverts attention as he has done with <b>the Epstein Files Diversionary Occupation of Washington, DC</b>, which he today said he <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/13/trump-dc-police-congress-00507359">will continue</a> with or without Congressional approval after thirty days as required by law.  Federal law enforcement and the National Guard will not find the over 300 gigabytes of Epstein files on the streets of Washington, DC, when they are in the DOJ ready to be released with victim names only redacted at the snap of a finger ---which will never come. What is in the DOJ Epstein pedophilia files which makes Trump too afraid to release them?  If he is only casually mentioned several times with no indication of knowledge or involvement, what does he have to fear?</p><p>Trump's Epstein files diversion and how it fits in his cascading deconstruction of American constitutional government, rule by law, and history <a href="https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/august-12-2025">has been noted</a> by the American historian Heather Cox Richardson.</p><p><a href="javascript:window.print()">Print Page</a></p>http://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2025/08/when-incompetent-people-have-power-paul.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Michael J. Schussele)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5228675828988846905.post-3063074484654991058Tue, 12 Aug 2025 03:00:00 +00002025-08-11T22:00:40.177-05:00On Why Incompetent People Think They Are Smart & New BLS Commissioner Nominated<p>President Trump has made a <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/11/trump-taps-heritage-economist-to-lead-bls-00504502">selection</a> to be the new commissioner at the BLS.  He will nominate E .J. <a href="https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/08/trump-nominates-ej-antoni-to-bls-commissioner">Antoni</a> who is an economist who has a <a href="https://econbrowser.com/?s=+Antoni">history</a> of making a living being consistently incorrect in his economic analysis and pleasing his employers.</p><p>Considering that the BLS economic data <a href="https://www.urban.org/urban-wire/why-firing-bls-commissioner-should-concern-every-data-user">is used</a> by business, markets --- such as the TIPS market, government --- such as setting Social Security annual adjustments, it has an internationally recognized <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/Business/2025/0805/labor-statistics-trump-economic-data">credibility</a> which is not appreciated by the current President who prefers data and information which must please him or else, because he knows better what reality is than anyone else.</p><p>When incompetent people think they are smart, it is known as the Dunning-Kruger Effect.  Here is a 25 minute <a href="https://larspsyll.wordpress.com/2025/08/10/the-dunning-kruger-effect-2/">video explanation</a> of the Dunning-Kruger Effect.  It will explain what we currently see happening to our downward spiraling democracy much less what we see happening as we live in this economy.</p><p>President Trump is convinced --- or trying to convince everyone --- that the data is wrong if it does not show the "great job" he is doing and how he has made the US economy the "bestest ever" --- just look at the price of beef and the trillions of dollars added to the federal deficit by his Big Beautiful (The Big Con) Budget Bill to benefit the top 10% of the very rich.  After all President Trump has personally <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-staggering-amount-donald-trump-is-profiting-from-the-presidency-revealed/">enriched</a> himself during his presidency to the tune of $3.4 billion by monetizing the Presidency for his personal benefit.</p><p>When Herbert Hoover did not like the BLS reports after the 1929 stock market crash from 1930 through 1932, when the BLS jobs report showed a quarter (approximately 12 1/2 million people) of the working population was out of work, and he <a href="https://www.davemanuel.com/2025/08/02/ethelbert-stewart-fired-president-hoover/">forced</a> the BLS Commissioner to retire, because President Herbert Hoover knew there was better information Hoover preferred.  Hoover went on to lose the 1932 election.</p><p>Incompetent people who think they are smart like other incompetent <a href="https://fortune.com/2025/08/10/william-beach-stephen-moore-clash-trump-jobs-report-bls-press-conference/">people</a> who <a href="https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-political-economy-of-incompetence">make them</a> look smart no matter what. </p><p> <a href="javascript:window.print()">Print Page</a></p>http://thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.blogspot.com/2025/08/on-why-incompetent-people-think-they.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Michael J. Schussele)0