tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32482835Sat, 28 Jan 2012 02:08:37 +0000long-term analysisThe Risk Averse AlertThe serious investor's 'must read'http://stock-index-options-alert.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.com (TC)Blogger1074125TheRiskAverseAlerthttp://feedburner.google.comSubscribe with My Yahoo!Subscribe with NewsGatorSubscribe with My AOLSubscribe with BloglinesSubscribe with NetvibesSubscribe with GoogleSubscribe with PageflakesSubscribe with FeedLoungeSubscribe with Live.comSubscribe with Excite MIXAdd to Any Feed Readertag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32482835.post-253947072768342279Fri, 27 Jan 2012 01:12:00 +00002012-01-26T21:28:39.033-05:00Fading Hope Floated No rush to call a top here because the art of floating hope has taken hold in the New Year and those who enjoy to float have spread their joy, and could a bit more as long as the euro-zone cooperates...In joy's increase, though, is there better seen a mark willing to be fleeced? Consider above noted, underlying technical dynamics in relation to price action since July 2011 in particular....Such http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~3/9_7sX3rb9tY/stock-index-options-alert-jan-26-2012.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TC)0<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~4/9_7sX3rb9tY" height="1" width="1"/>http://stock-index-options-alert.blogspot.com/2012/01/stock-index-options-alert-jan-26-2012.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32482835.post-6494980698244629043Thu, 26 Jan 2012 01:00:00 +00002012-01-26T13:53:16.712-05:00Hyperinflationary Happy Hour Extended to 2014 Drunk on monetary moonshine served up these past few years at Ben Bernanke's Federal Speak-Easy, party goers today welcomed the promise of three more years in distorted reality stuffing dollar bills into the financial system's chaos-o-meter, and just making the thing leap...Note spot gold's increasing volume trend since late-December. The stock market (let alone AAPL) could take a lesson. http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~3/i3WtWLpP8_0/stock-index-options-alert-jan-25-2012.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TC)0<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~4/i3WtWLpP8_0" height="1" width="1"/>http://stock-index-options-alert.blogspot.com/2012/01/stock-index-options-alert-jan-25-2012.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32482835.post-6311466170644027641Wed, 25 Jan 2012 01:19:00 +00002012-01-25T22:43:07.103-05:00A Date With Chaos Behold physical economic breakdown on the alter of [insane] hyperinflationary monetary policy: a freight train whose fuel simply is not hydrocarbon-based. Thus, there's no need for so much refining capacity... Oh? This means everyone gets to pay even more at the pump, so from a collective backside the many times screwed yet again subsidize a hopelessly insolvent banking system whose http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~3/LPpB1HlZ40E/stock-index-options-alert-jan-24-2012.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TC)0<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~4/LPpB1HlZ40E" height="1" width="1"/>http://stock-index-options-alert.blogspot.com/2012/01/stock-index-options-alert-jan-24-2012.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32482835.post-2567707667142084618Tue, 24 Jan 2012 01:18:00 +00002012-01-26T14:02:46.001-05:00A Joe Granville Sighting Nice to see Joe Granville still in the game. His New Strategy of Daily Stock Market Timing for Maximum Profit was one of my first reads in the voodoo of technical analysis. Finding Granville presently quite bearish on account of his "on-balance volume," no doubt, is encouraging.Now, being old school the Dow Jones Industrials Average is the object of his outlook. Appropriately enough, too, the http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~3/BrhmS5pMX9Y/stock-index-options-alert-jan-23-2012.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TC)0<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~4/BrhmS5pMX9Y" height="1" width="1"/>http://stock-index-options-alert.blogspot.com/2012/01/stock-index-options-alert-jan-23-2012.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32482835.post-5998931663290227009Sat, 21 Jan 2012 00:06:00 +00002012-01-23T12:51:52.735-05:00Levitating Trash How ever will Team Fraud keep its garbage afloat when the underlying dynamics sustaining its levitation are so frightfully poor?You would think by now the NYSE Composite Index would be printing somewhere in the vicinity of 15,000 judging by how far beyond its 2007 peak is the NYSE cumulative advance-decline line. It really just goes to show you that, a lot of weak hands are required to absorb http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~3/gtrWc-ddIlk/stock-index-options-alert-jan-20-2012.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TC)0<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~4/gtrWc-ddIlk" height="1" width="1"/>http://stock-index-options-alert.blogspot.com/2012/01/stock-index-options-alert-jan-20-2012.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32482835.post-1367461616521767955Fri, 20 Jan 2012 01:16:00 +00002012-01-23T13:05:33.910-05:00All Eyes on the Exits You know what they say: one man's trash is another man's treasure. And so it is with this market, as the NYSE's new 52-week high-low differential rather decidedly suggests (this over the past two years, as well as the past two weeks). Plainly, the future of hyperinflationary bailout is grim. This even for the likes of IBM whose Q4 2011 revenue is reported tonight coming in. Eventually there willhttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~3/-1p7OKmtnJw/stock-index-options-alert-jan-19-2012.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TC)0<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~4/-1p7OKmtnJw" height="1" width="1"/>http://stock-index-options-alert.blogspot.com/2012/01/stock-index-options-alert-jan-19-2012.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32482835.post-4923840503517415568Thu, 19 Jan 2012 02:34:00 +00002012-01-19T05:44:45.120-05:00Complex Corrective Wave Nears Completion Back on December 28th the following chart was presented (absent the Elliott wave count), showing that, the market's CME-driven lift from Tuesday, December 20th had hit a patch of weakness (seen via circled RSI), suggesting approaching completion of a five wave advance...Staying with this view, and keeping with more recent perspective supposing these five waves up from Tuesday, December 20th are http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~3/i7m70L3lJIA/stock-index-options-alert-jan-18-2012.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TC)0<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~4/i7m70L3lJIA" height="1" width="1"/>http://stock-index-options-alert.blogspot.com/2012/01/stock-index-options-alert-jan-18-2012.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32482835.post-6032481620874371890Wed, 18 Jan 2012 02:29:00 +00002012-01-19T05:43:36.774-05:00Shakedown Awareness Day Yahoo!s talking Yang ignore at their own peril how Greece is the way. Not missing a beat at the heart of today's fantasy is belief a Greek default will be orderly. It better be, because Germany has reiterated its hardline position on [under-funded] sovereign bailout facilities.The market's true disposition lies exposed in sentiment presented for public consumption. Were an "orderly" default on http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~3/gjtrnWMoLCA/stock-index-options-alert-jan-17-2012.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TC)0<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~4/gjtrnWMoLCA" height="1" width="1"/>http://stock-index-options-alert.blogspot.com/2012/01/stock-index-options-alert-jan-17-2012.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32482835.post-562435041705113772Mon, 16 Jan 2012 12:00:00 +00002012-01-17T14:18:16.671-05:00When Exchange Integrity Is Called Into Question Here's a hot potato that slipped under my radar, and yet still is well-served better late than never... A real confidence builder. Apparently there's no harm if this message goes viral, as the damage is done and the fallout cannot be contained.The depth of the trans-Atlantic banking system's insolvency lies exposed in this shark-on-shark attack involving MF Global whose effect so http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~3/KmOlJB6XoOE/stock-index-options-alert-jan-16-2012.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TC)0<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~4/KmOlJB6XoOE" height="1" width="1"/>http://stock-index-options-alert.blogspot.com/2012/01/stock-index-options-alert-jan-16-2012.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32482835.post-5903744484415211000Sat, 14 Jan 2012 00:24:00 +00002012-01-17T14:11:10.032-05:00The Lug Nuts Loosen Were this morning's market setback on "rumors" of European sovereign debt downgrades likely to prove the kickoff to events leading to breakup of the EMU (as well as wave (3) of C targeting levels last seen in the 1987-1994 period), then odds are spot gold would have surged higher enroute to tracing its anticipated, final parabolic surge (this prior to collapsing along with everything else), http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~3/KUFVJyCHTA8/stock-index-options-alert-jan-13-2012.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TC)0<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~4/KUFVJyCHTA8" height="1" width="1"/>http://stock-index-options-alert.blogspot.com/2012/01/stock-index-options-alert-jan-13-2012.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32482835.post-3851125409624156705Fri, 13 Jan 2012 01:38:00 +00002012-01-17T14:50:03.983-05:00Since Lincoln, You Are Here I should add long-term Elliott wave perspective to yesterday's near-term outlook applied to the S&P 500. Namely, October 2007 top not only likely marked the end of five waves up from 1974, but also the end of five waves up from 1932. From 1974-2007, then, the fifth wave of five waves up from 1932 unfolded.Now, five waves up from 1932 are thought to form but the third wave of five waves up from http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~3/xQCGWqBD-5U/stock-index-options-alert-jan-12-2012.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TC)1<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~4/xQCGWqBD-5U" height="1" width="1"/>http://stock-index-options-alert.blogspot.com/2012/01/stock-index-options-alert-jan-12-2012.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32482835.post-3322051078413234356Thu, 12 Jan 2012 02:04:00 +00002012-01-12T15:24:30.963-05:00Death By Twinkie First, some encouraging news: Kudlow finds stocks "absurdly cheap." Tell it to a European banking system collapsing under the weight of a zero due diligence regime whose latest permutation is a page right out of Wiemar Germany — a fact probably not lost on a gasping, crisis wracked political class at the helm of the EMU's lynch pin economy whose surprise, Q4 2011 GDP contraction is a http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~3/Va0SrF5jDJA/stock-index-options-alert-jan-11-2012.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TC)1<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~4/Va0SrF5jDJA" height="1" width="1"/>http://stock-index-options-alert.blogspot.com/2012/01/stock-index-options-alert-jan-11-2012.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32482835.post-1083778441390867964Wed, 11 Jan 2012 00:09:00 +00002012-01-11T09:04:51.463-05:00Milking the Euro-decoupling Theme Shorter dated technical confirmation coinciding with today's advance meets longer dated technical divergence exposing underlying weakness to extend as follows an Elliott corrective wave's levitation whose greater success is in time breeding complacency, rather than distance substantiating today's apparent contentment...Not a big change to an assumed wave count whose second "c" wave of an http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~3/mEXfxq4e82U/stock-index-options-alert-jan-10-2012.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TC)1<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~4/mEXfxq4e82U" height="1" width="1"/>http://stock-index-options-alert.blogspot.com/2012/01/stock-index-options-alert-jan-10-2012.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32482835.post-5842242128180703194Tue, 10 Jan 2012 01:20:00 +00002012-01-10T14:28:03.559-05:00Hands Across the Water, Heads Inclined to Lie Someone tell me the practical difference between what JP Morgan Chase's Jamie Dimon is doing in the following interview and what Alan Schwartz did three days before his firm, Bear Stearns, was taken down... "The EU and common currency are a great accomplishment of mankind," says Dimon.Imperial mankind? Yes, of course. The PIIGS are proving a great success in the art of extracting http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~3/myg4jPSAWbk/stock-index-options-alert-jan-9-2012.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TC)0<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~4/myg4jPSAWbk" height="1" width="1"/>http://stock-index-options-alert.blogspot.com/2012/01/stock-index-options-alert-jan-9-2012.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32482835.post-976532609244165120Sun, 08 Jan 2012 00:27:00 +00002012-01-09T00:40:50.626-05:00Bullish Empiricism Drowned in Bearish Context No, no, young Swenlin, your "S&P 500 Generates Long-Term BUY Signal" misses relevant context whose precariousness is well-spoken by the very same measures you cite in making your bullish case...Rather than contrast the absolute measure of AAII Bulls/Bears (bottom panel) to periods past when the ratio was similarly elevated (see black arrows) — this as basis for a positive market outlook — http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~3/A1teiuXw6ds/stock-index-options-alert-jan-7-2012.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TC)0<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~4/A1teiuXw6ds" height="1" width="1"/>http://stock-index-options-alert.blogspot.com/2012/01/stock-index-options-alert-jan-7-2012.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32482835.post-1686109055502680133Sat, 07 Jan 2012 02:06:00 +00002012-01-08T20:59:35.346-05:002012 High In? The question is could major indexes like the Dow Industrials have printed the high for the year during the first hour of the first day of trading in 2012? Truth is this is entirely possible...Adding to recent substantiation of an a-b-c-x-a-b-c "complex" Elliott corrective wave forming since August is the Fibonacci relationship indicated above. The breadth of the second a-b-c (since late-Novemberhttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~3/10mPueK-XUM/stock-index-options-alert-jan-6-2012.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TC)0<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~4/10mPueK-XUM" height="1" width="1"/>http://stock-index-options-alert.blogspot.com/2012/01/stock-index-options-alert-jan-6-2012.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32482835.post-4245845854516890185Fri, 06 Jan 2012 00:38:00 +00002012-01-06T03:39:53.211-05:00All Eyes On THE Trillions of Dollars Bottom Yet another ominous sign of the times is delivered in rumor of some Fed miracle cure whose mere mental effect on perplexed doctors clinging to a dying patient shows hope for eternal life abounds among mortals bidding up banks and financials. Would some other sentiment toward the patient be more rightly fitting a moment preceding a Great Flatline spreading fast from the euro-zone periphery to thehttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~3/SQHnHVHHFVs/stock-index-options-alert-jan-5-2012.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TC)0<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~4/SQHnHVHHFVs" height="1" width="1"/>http://stock-index-options-alert.blogspot.com/2012/01/stock-index-options-alert-jan-5-2012.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32482835.post-6019462316304950633Thu, 05 Jan 2012 01:12:00 +00002012-01-05T02:58:00.873-05:00Flip Flopping on a Corrective Wave And right back it is to possibility that, a "complex" Elliott corrective wave has been forming since August...Namely an a-b-c-x-a-b-c, "double three," complex corrective wave that, in this instance is developing with a slight upward bias. Of note here is how the Elliott Wave Principle's alternation guideline is being satisfied.The first a-b-c was a 3-3-5 "irregular flat" whose "a" and "b" waves http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~3/Cy-NfwmhPTI/stock-index-options-alert-jan-4-2012.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TC)0<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~4/Cy-NfwmhPTI" height="1" width="1"/>http://stock-index-options-alert.blogspot.com/2012/01/stock-index-options-alert-jan-4-2012.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32482835.post-5088364779108657844Wed, 04 Jan 2012 00:19:00 +00002012-01-04T15:53:30.108-05:00Trouble Brewing on the Continent Leave it to busy bankrupt beavers to stage a New Years euro-suck with net effect on major indexes no less ominous than noted here last week. On all accounts does momentum's fade over the past couple months still stand out as indexes levitate at or near their highs over the same period. Consider this but an added measure of underlying weakness presenting a suitable technical backdrop presaging a http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~3/s04Ppbr6Hqk/stock-index-options-alert-jan-3-2012.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TC)0<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~4/s04Ppbr6Hqk" height="1" width="1"/>http://stock-index-options-alert.blogspot.com/2012/01/stock-index-options-alert-jan-3-2012.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32482835.post-3144760552605896690Sat, 31 Dec 2011 03:55:00 +00002012-01-03T12:34:50.040-05:00Building a Brick Poor House Assuming wave (2) of C forming since late-August continues to unfold, as appears likely given developments over the past month or so, one view forward among several accommodates the possibility that wave (2) still might take a "simple," a-b-c Elliott wave form, rather than the "complex," a-b-c-x-a-b-c form discussed here recently...Here, wave (a) of (2) from late-August through late-October tookhttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~3/b_msNz_zN2A/stock-index-options-alert-dec-30-2011.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TC)0<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~4/b_msNz_zN2A" height="1" width="1"/>http://stock-index-options-alert.blogspot.com/2011/12/stock-index-options-alert-dec-30-2011.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32482835.post-5504454235339738798Fri, 30 Dec 2011 02:51:00 +00002011-12-30T18:36:33.877-05:00Broad Performance Disparities Spell Trouble Ahead I owe you a few days. Charts (and video) are ready, but writing is delayed.No change in the weather to report today. Rather, a negative turn of affairs instead should be feared likely to appear sooner than the average baboon apparently is wont to pontificate, as these in large number sell hope in fantasy of a pending return to days of old, blithely ignoring truth that, major currency unions do http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~3/mPRffkHG4YI/stock-index-options-alert-dec-29-2011.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TC)0<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~4/mPRffkHG4YI" height="1" width="1"/>http://stock-index-options-alert.blogspot.com/2011/12/stock-index-options-alert-dec-29-2011.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32482835.post-1008032033737785943Thu, 29 Dec 2011 01:48:00 +00002012-01-03T10:41:45.113-05:00Team Fraud Mount Athos Fades the EMU There is a point-of-view supposing calamity the British Treasury is reported to be bracing against instead is an end the City of London is proclaiming its interests intend to bring about...Reports like this are all the more interesting in light of prospect that, MF Global could be a harbinger for a fast-developing run on the global banking system.It appears year end circumstance is setting up http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~3/2b_q2w-ImLs/stock-index-options-alert-dec-28-2011.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TC)0<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~4/2b_q2w-ImLs" height="1" width="1"/>http://stock-index-options-alert.blogspot.com/2011/12/stock-index-options-alert-dec-28-2011.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32482835.post-7555949699223541542Wed, 28 Dec 2011 02:49:00 +00002012-01-03T10:41:11.913-05:00Tired Legs Since last Wednesday's indication that, the CME-driven short squeeze of the day before looked to have legs, the S&P 500's subsequent advance, having maintained positive relative strength, now appears to be losing steam...As projected, the market did not run away following last Tuesday's CME goose. With fading relative strength now decidedly negative attempts to take prices higher could be http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~3/cBHjLDocb9Y/stock-index-options-alert-dec-27-2011.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TC)0<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~4/cBHjLDocb9Y" height="1" width="1"/>http://stock-index-options-alert.blogspot.com/2011/12/stock-index-options-alert-dec-27-2011.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32482835.post-7349506500003642414Sat, 24 Dec 2011 01:40:00 +00002012-01-03T10:52:21.142-05:00Photo of the Day: Suckers Being Spoon Fed The CBOE Put/Call ratio's traverse over the past few years tells the story of a distribution of shares into weak hands whose present capacity to absorb supply is challenged...Every challenge to the market's liquidity-induced, counter-trend rally since March '09 has required an increase in hedging protecting long positions, that those whose credit market exposure has been given a temporary http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~3/d06II0_rR78/stock-index-options-alert-dec-23-2011.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TC)0<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~4/d06II0_rR78" height="1" width="1"/>http://stock-index-options-alert.blogspot.com/2011/12/stock-index-options-alert-dec-23-2011.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32482835.post-1185943539876316824Fri, 23 Dec 2011 02:08:00 +00002011-12-23T15:17:57.713-05:00Weak Hands Drinking the Kool-Aid Pete Najarian was more than mildly positive on financials this evening, so let's take a look...Today's rally filled $XLF's gap lower of two Mondays ago. So, how many more portfolio managers now might be inclined to further trim their exposure to the market's dogs of 2011? How this group doesn't fall of its own weight in muted trading to close out the year is what one should wonder. The same http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~3/ritPo2Ah6e4/stock-index-options-alert-dec-22-2011.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TC)0<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheRiskAverseAlert/~4/ritPo2Ah6e4" height="1" width="1"/>http://stock-index-options-alert.blogspot.com/2011/12/stock-index-options-alert-dec-22-2011.html