Currently, Indiana’s state code delegates redistricting power to the state legislature, however, its only guideline for drawing districts is that they must be contiguous. SB-80 outlines several new criteria that must be met when districts:

• Preserve traditional neighborhoods
• Preserve communities of interest
• Protect minority voting rights
• Compactness
• “Simple shapes”
• Respect county boundaries

It doesn’t specify in which order these requirements should be met. While the law does not explicitly mention the Voting Rights Act, it requires that districts be consistent with federal law.

SB-136 establishes a seventeen-member study committee, composed of legislators and private citizens and chaired by the Chief Justice, to observe redistricting processes in other states during the 2011 cycle and determine whether or not to implement an independent redistricting commission for the 2021 redistricting cycle. The legislature would still maintain control over redistricting during the 2011 cycle. The bill passed the Republican-majority Senate chamber after it rejected a Democrat-sponsored bill earlier this week that would have established an independent commission for the current (2011) cycle. The three votes against the bill were protest votes from Democratic senators.

Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita has been the foremost advocate for redistricting reform in Indiana since September 2009. He commended the Indiana Senate for its bipartisanship in passing the bills, but lamented that an independent commission will not be formed in time for the 2011 cycle. Secretary Rotika, a Republican, has announced his candidacy for the open seat in Indiana’s 4th Congressional district, where the incumbent, Republican Steve Buyer, announced he would not be running again. Secretary Rotika previously declined to join the field of challengers to Evan Bayh in what is expected to be a hotly contested Senate race.

The House will take up the legislation next month. Secretary Rokita says he will urge the house to take up the issues of incumbent addresses and “nesting.” Passage is less certain in the Democrat-controlled house, which may seek to hold on to as much political control as possible in the state. Republicans are on track to make gains in the 2010 elections, after winning the Senate seat and the governor’s mansion in 2008. The top two Republican challengers to unseat Democratic incumbent U.S. Senator Evan Bayh both hold 3-point leads, according to a recent Rasmussen poll.

For more on Indiana redistricting: www.rethinkingredistricting.com

Clearly, Californians are eager to tackle the challenge of drawing legislative districts in public for the benefit of the people and voters, not for the incumbents and political insiders.

Acknowledging the surge in interest, the California State Auditor (who is in charge of the application process) extended the initial application deadline from its original February 12 to the new deadline of 5PM on Tuesday, February 16th.

It is exciting to see people from every geographic and demographic corner of California step up to serve. But it is still important to ensure that we get the right people to apply. Will you sign up now? The initial application takes only about 20 minutes to complete. Go to www.WeDrawTheLines.ca.gov to apply.

Learn more about who is qualified and what the job will entail from the Redistricting Collaborative at RedistrictingCA.org. Generously funded by the Irvine Foundation, the collaborative is a coalition of redistricting outreach and education organizations including the Rose Institute.

The Institute’s live charting feature provides continuously-updated charts of applications by ethnicity, political party, and region. More numbers are available live from the State Auditor’s website.

UPDATE: The North County Times also cites the Rose Institute report in an article this morning. This is the 2nd time an article in the NC Times has referenced the study (here is the first).

CA-03 Dan Lungren (R)

Lungren was viewed as one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents in the country going into this quarter, but a big quarter for him in this increasingly Republican-friendly environment nationally could have made his seat a lot safer.  He did not have that big quarter.  He raised $151,633 but spent $68,380 meaning that he only added (banked) $83,253 to his campaign account which leaves him with $526,904 cash on hand.  His Democratic challenger Ameriash Bera outraised him by raising $239,368 and ending the quarter with $739,685 cash on hand.  Democratic leadership is clearly impressed with Bera as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has added him to the “Top Race” category.  His campaign received contributions from Majority Leader Steny Hoyer’s Ameripac: The Fund for a Greater America, Congressman Mike Honda, and Congressman Steve Israel.  Lungren has a very serious race on his hands.

CA-04 Tom McClintock (R)

Democrats had hoped to make this seat competitive.  Last quarter McClintock raised $222,343 and added $145,241 of that to his cash on hand which now totals $369,340.  McClintock does not have that much money, but he lacks a serious opponent.  Charlie Brown who ran against him previously recently accepted a position in the Obama administration and no other serious candidate has emerged.  McClintock is likely in for an easy reelection.

CA-11 Jerry McNerney (D)

Simply put, Republicans would love this seat as it has a slight Republican tilt usually.  However, McNerney is not going to give it up easily.  He raised $235,045 but only spent $64,121 so that he banked $170,924 and now has a solid $847,005 cash on hand.  Republicans lack a clear front runner.  Brad Goehring only raised $71,451 and spent even more ($92,497) meaning that he would have lost money last quarter.  However, he loaned his campaign $425,000 (he has loaned his campaign over $1 million already this cycle).  His fundraising is unimpressive, but his willingness to devote that amount of money makes him a contender for the nomination.  Autism activist Elizabeth Emken entered the race in October.  She raised $101,817 and spent $55,735 so that she added $46,082 to her total.  She also loaned herself $200,000 and ended the quarter with $246,081 cash on hand.  Additionally, David Harmer has also joined the race.  He recently ran unsuccessfully against John Garamendi in the special election in the 10th congressional district.  He decided to run against McNerney in the 11th district in 2010.  In the race for the 10th district, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) had him listed on their “Young Guns” page (for exciting challenger campaigns), but he is no longer listed there.  The race for the Republican nomination is likely to be very competitive, especially if both Emken and Goehring continue to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars of their own money.  The slight Republican lean of the district and the increasingly Republican-friendly national environment may mean that whoever emerges has a real chance of beating McNerney.

CA-26 David Dreier (R)

Democrats thought they had a chance to take out Dreier with Obama’s coattails in 2008 but could not.  Dreier raised $137,600 last quarter and sits on a solid $1,025,315 cash on hand.  Repeat challenger Russ Warner only raised $37,851 and, while sitting on $123,506, is not a serious threat–if he could not do it in 2008, he cannot do it this year, especially with such a fundraising disadvantage.

CA-44 Ken Calvert (R)

The Democrats have been targeting Calvert since 2008 when Bill Hedrick gave him a very close race without the help of national Democrats.  Hedrick is challenging Calvert again.  Calvert raised only $97,125 last quarter and has $519,432 cash on hand.  Even though Calvert only has a modest amount of money for an incumbent, he must think that he is in pretty good financial strength as he gave over $1,000 of his campaign funds to local charities.  Hedrick raised only $56,480 and only has $95,779 cash on hand.  Yet, as he proved last election, he can do well without a lot of money or national help.  Calvert may have a financial advantage, but he should be careful because he cannot ignore Hedrick.

CA-45 Mary Bono Mack (R)

The 45th district is likely to be an interesting race.  The Democrats got their dream candidate in Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet, and he continues to have solid fundraising numbers.  However, he is running against incumbent Mary Bono Mack who can genuinely claim to be moderate and bipartisan after her vote for the Democratic cap and trade program.  Bono Mack raised $270,919 but spent a considerable amount ($147,842) and banked $123,077 for the quarter.  She has $893,754 cash on hand.  She has received support from various Republicans last quarter as Minority Leader John Boehner, NRCC chairman Pete Sessions, Congressman Phil Gingrey, and Congressman Glenn Thompson all gave to her campaign.  Pougnet raised $150,136 but spend $95,122 of it and has $402,313 cash on hand.  Bono Mack has more money, but Pougnet is likely to make it a race if he can continue to raise money.

CA-47 Loretta Sanchez (D)

Early in the cycle, Republicans thought that Assemblyman Van Tran could beat usually safe incumbent Loretta Sanchez.  More recently, there has been less talk about Van Tran because he has not had very good fundraising. Last quarter Sanchez raised $229,614 and banked a significant portion of it ($188,585).  She currently has $905,923.  Van Tran raised $99,992 last quarter, but he spent $67,444 of it meaning that he only banked $32,548.  He currently has $314,797.  Van Tran will need to increase his fundraising significantly if he is going to be competitive.

CA-50 Brian Bilbray (R)

Bilbray looked vulnerable early in the cycle.  However, his strongest challenger Dave Roberts dropped out which made the race significantly easier for Bilbray.  Bilbray raised $73,650 and spend $77,263 last quarter which means that he actually lost money.  He currently has $431,950 cash on hand.  Fortunately for him, his challengers’ numbers are less impressive.  Tracy Emblem only raised $11,707 while spending $30,446 last quarter, leaving her with $8,055 cash on hand.  Repeat challenger Francine Busby did better by raising $55,039 last quarter and ending the quarter with $155,126 cash on hand.  Bilbray is not doing a great job of fundraising but is unlikely to have any serious competition in 2010.

Overall Outlook

Democrats can seriously compete against Lungren, Calvert, and Bono Mack.  Lungren is in the most danger.  In a 2006 or 2008 atmosphere all three incumbents (and likely Bilbray and McClintock) would be in trouble.  However, 2010 is not going to be a repeat of 2006 or 2008 and is going to be a much better environment for Republicans.  While there is no clear front runner against McNerney and Van Tran has not been raising enough money, if the national environment continues to favor Republicans, either (or both) McNerney or Sanchez could have a very serious election.

*All fundraising numbers are rounded down to the nearest dollar.

From the press release:

“The report comprehensively analyzes San Diego County spending and services in four categories: Welfare, Public Protection, Mental Health, and Other Public Assistance. Looking at the estimated eligible population sizes, County spending, and service denial rates, the study ranks San Diego against the twelve largest counties in California. ‘San Diego County shows a consistent pattern of lower spending on and higher denial rates for welfare programs than comparable California counties,’ says Rose Institute Associate Director Ken Miller. ‘These findings could be the result of either an unwillingness to spend more or a more diligent checking of applicant qualifications.’”

In addition to the work of the Rose Institute research team over many months, the Report is also the result of a unique partnership between the Institute and the journalists of Voice of San Diego. This morning Voice launched the first of its Special Reports based on this report.

On behalf of everyone at the Institute and Claremont McKenna College, our appreciation to Buzz Woolley for its generosity in making this research possible and to Voice for working with us on this research project.

UPDATE: Voice of San Diego has a page listing their many stories arising from this report: http://voiceofsandiego.org/voice_special_reports/county/, including a post on the Voice blog by Rose project manager Ilan Wurman.

UPDATE II: The North County Times also reported on the study’s findings.

We’re the 14th biggest (metropolitan statistical area),” said Dave Huntoon – a fellow at The Rose Institute of State and Local Government – about the San Bernardino-Ontario-Riverside region. “There really isn’t a place to go … that provides the full gamut of resources across economics and government. We think it’s a good time to make our resources available to the Inland Empire.

Southern California has some catching up to do.

Interested registered voters can get more information from the Irvine Foundation’s redistricting collaborative (including the Rose Institute) here: http://www.redistrictingca.org/

And start the application process on the State Auditor’s site here: http://wedrawthelines.ca.gov/

Follow the real-time statistics on applications in chart form here and in raw data form here.

Click to see real time stats and graphs on applications for the Redistricting Commission

In 2008, California voters passed Proposition 11, the Voters FIRST Act, which took control of the redistricting process for the state assembly and senate away from the lawmakers and gave it to an independent commission. Now that commission is being created, and citizens from across the state are applying to be on it.

The State Auditor’s office has opened up access to data on the applications, and below you can track the progress yourself. The Rose Institute has created dynamic graphs breaking down the total numbers of applications — by race, party, and region — using the auditor’s information.

These charts will update in real time as applications are submitted: http://rosereport.org/commission-stats/

“California’s Golden State image has certainly collapsed,” said Douglas Johnson, a fellow at the Rose Institute at Claremont McKenna College. “People aren’t coming from other states, and a lot of people are leaving.”

The apportionment math used by Polidata and EDS project each state’s 2010 population assuming the 2008 to 2009 one-year growth rate continues for an additional year. EDS also performs other projections, assuming that the 2009-2010 growth rate matches the state’s growth rate from 2000 through 2009; from 2004 through 2009; and again starting from each year since 2004.

The one-year projections from Polidata and EDS agree: California will keep its 53 seats. Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington will each gain one seat, and Texas will gain four new seats. Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania will each lose one seat, and Ohio will lose two.

But longer-term projections done by EDS raise the specter of California losing a seat. Using the growth rate from 2000 through 2009, California holds onto its 53rd seat by just 15,000 people. Projections using the growth rates from 2004 through 2009 and from 2005 through 2009 show California losing one seat.

Of course, even if California holds onto all 53 seats, it will be the first time since statehood that California has not added at least one Congressional seat after the Census.This highlights the vital necessity of counting every Californian in the 2010 Census, as missing only 0.04% of the population could cost the state a vote in Congress. Overall, clearly, the “Golden State” has lost its appeal for Americans from other states.

UPDATE: Rose Institute Fellow Douglas Johnson commented: “Failing to add any new Congressional seats reflects California’s problems over the past ten years, both political and economic. Losing a seat would be an unprecedented political shock, especially at a time when the state is more and more dependent on federal funds. Californians must make every effort to ensure a full count in the 2010 Census to ensure no seats are lost.”