The Virginia State Supreme Court struck down Democrats’ ambitious redistricting plan in the Old Dominion on Friday. The map, which was designed to elect 10 Democrats and just one Republican, was approved by voters in a statewide referendum last month. 

The decision is an exclamation point on a madcap week of redistricting that began with Florida passing an aggressive new GOP-drawn map and then saw Tennessee dismantle its last remaining majority-Black, Solid Democratic district. 

Factoring in today’s shifts in Virginia, Inside Elections has made 12 House ratings changes this week due to redistricting, with 11 in favor of Republicans and 1 in favor of Democrats: five in Virginia, five in Florida, and two in Tennessee.

Following those changes, Republicans are favored to win seven more seats than they were on Monday.

Virginia
Our ratings will revert to where they were before the April 21 referendum.

1st District. GOP Rep. Rob Wittman will still face a competitive race, likely against Henrico Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor, but the partisan lean of the district is again in his favor. Move from Solid Democratic to Lean Republican.

2nd District. GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans’ Virginia Beach-based district remains largely the same but is a bit more favorable to Republicans now. You can read a full analysis of this race in the May 7 issue of Inside Elections. Move from Tilt Democratic to Toss-up. 

5th District. GOP Rep. John McGuire is the clear favorite against likely Democratic nominee Tom Perriello following the court’s decision to restore the old map, though this district could get more competitive for Democrats. Move from Solid Democratic to Solid Republican.

6th District. GOP Rep. Ben Cline was one of the loudest critics of the redistricting referendum as it demolished his Shenandoah Valley district. Now he’ll be the favorite in this very Republican seat. Move from Lean Democratic to Solid Republican.

7th District. Democratic Rep. Eugene Vindman had planned to move to the new 1st District and leave a radically reconfigured 7th open for the taking. Now he’ll face a competitive re-election campaign in the perennial swing seat. Move from Solid Democratic to Lean Democratic.

Florida
A full accounting of Florida’s ratings changes can be found in the May 7 issue of Inside Elections.

9th District. Democrat Darren Soto is the underdog in this reconfigured Central Florida seat that is no longer majority-Hispanic. Move from Solid Democratic to Likely Republican.

14th District. Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor will be an underdog for re-election after the redraw swapped out two-thirds of her constituents and turned the district into one that voted for Trump by double digits in 2024. Move from Solid Democratic to Lean Republican.

22nd District. Rep. Lois Frankel is leaving this district to run in the neighboring and more Democratic 23rd District. The new and radically reconfigured 22nd would have voted for Trump by a healthy margin in 2024, but for Biden in 2020. Former state Sen. Lauren Book might run here and would be a credible candidate for Democrats. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz is another possibility. Move from Solid Democratic to Tilt Republican.

23rd District. Frankel is running in this redrawn seat that is now safely Democratic. Incumbent Democrat Jared Moskowitz may run in the 25th. Move from Lean Democratic to Solid Democratic.

25th District. Moskowitz has indicated he’ll run in this coastal district that swung from Biden to Trump between 2020 and 2024. Move from Solid Democratic to Toss-up.

Tennessee.
A full writeup of Tennessee’s new map appeared online at InsideElections.com on May 8.

5th District. Republicans went out of their way to shore up embattled Rep. Andy Ogles in his primary and general elections. Move from Likely Republican to Solid Republican.

9th District. Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen sees his majority-Black Memphis seat obliterated following the Supreme Court’s decision weakening the Voting Rights Act. Move from Solid Democratic to Solid Republican.

What’s Next
Republican state legislators across the South are contemplating what steps to take in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision in Callais vs. Louisiana, which seemed to open the door to the widespread elimination of majority-Black House seats.

In Louisiana, Gov. Jeff Landry declared a state of emergency and canceled next week’s House primaries to give the state legislature time to draw a map intended to defeat either or both of 2nd District Rep. Troy Carter and 6th Rep. Cleo Fields, both Black Democrats. There is ongoing litigation to prevent that move.

In South Carolina, legislators have convened to discuss dismantling the Palmetto State’s remaining majority-Black seat, held by longtime Rep. Jim Clyburn, but there’s some reluctance among the state Senate leadership to do so. 

In Alabama, Republicans await a decision by a lower court that previously barred the state from changing its current map until 2032, after the next decennial census. A favorable ruling for Republicans could prompt the legislature to turn one or both of Black Democratic Reps. Terri Sewell and Shomari Figures’ districts into Republican-friendly seats.

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Wasting little time after the Supreme Court defanged what remained of the Voting Rights Act, Tennessee Republicans passed a map designed to elect nine Republican members of Congress this fall. The Volunteer State’s delegation is currently split 8-1 in favor of Republicans, with Democrat Steve Cohen of Memphis as the odd man out.

The new map, signed into law Thursday by Gov. Bill Lee, dismantles Cohen’s majority-Black 9th District by parceling Democratic voters out into neighboring, GOP-friendly seats. Under the new map, Tennessee has no majority-Black seats. Expected legal challenges could shed light on just how reduced in power the Voting Rights Act is following the court’s 6-3 decision in Callais vs. Louisiana last week.

The legislature also re-opened candidate filing until May 15. All nine districts on the new map are rated Solid Republican.

1st District. The 1st remains unchanged under the new map, and Rep. Diana Harshbarger doesn’t have any challengers in the primary, where she received just 19 percent in her initial 2020 election. 

2nd District. The 2nd remains unchanged under the new map. Rep. Tim Burchett is running unopposed in the GOP primary.

3rd District. The 3rd remains largely unchanged under the new map and is still anchored by Chattanooga. Rep. Chuck Fleischmann is the presumptive GOP nominee.

4th District. The new 4th District reaches into Davidson County (Nashville), picking up Democratic voters previously placed in the 5th and 6th districts. As a result, the district gets moderately less friendly to the GOP; its Baseline score decreases from R+39 to R+18. That’s more than enough of a cushion for the GOP nominee. Rep. Scott DesJarlais’s personal baggage almost always ensures he has a primary challenger, and with 33 percent new constituents he may have to take the primary more seriously.

5th District. Currently on the edge of the House battleground, the 5th District is radically reshaped in the new map. The new seat, which pulls in pieces of the old 5th (17 percent), 7th (28 percent), 8th (22 percent) and 9th (32 percent) districts, begins in Memphis in the state’s southwest corner, snakes north along the Mississippi River, and hangs a right turn at the Kentucky border, extending east to Montgomery and Williamson counties. It no longer includes any of Nashville. GOP Rep. Andy Ogles is the biggest beneficiary of any incumbent on the map. Not only does the new 5th pick up a few points of GOP performance, with a Baseline of R+17 compared to R+15 under the old map, but the map kneecaps both of his most worrisome opponents. Former commissioner of agriculture Charlie Hatcher, who is running against Ogles in the GOP primary, sees his home base in Williamson County drawn out of the district. And Ogles’ likely general election opponent, Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder, likewise sees half of Columbia and surrounding Maury County drawn out of the district. 

6th District. While the core of the 6th District stays intact, roughly 40 percent of voters under the new map will be new to the district, which reaches further into Nashville than previously. Politically, the most significant change is that state Rep. Johnny Garrett, one of the leading candidates for the GOP nomination, sees his legislative seat excised from the district. That may lead to him dropping out, which he hinted at while expressing support for the new map. Former Rep. Van Hilleary is the other major candidate running in the GOP primary to succeed Rep. John Rose, who is running for governor. 

7th District. The new 7th is a more compact seat that includes the western half of Nashville as well as the city’s western and northern suburbs. Previously the 7th ran north to south and touched both Kentucky and Alabama, and included the city of Franklin in Williamson County. 

Politically, the 7th gains a few points of GOP performance, with its Baseline increasing from R+18 to R+20. Rep. Matt Van Epps, the newest member of the delegation, won a competitive special election late last year but should have an easier time winning a full term this fall.

8th District. The 8th District absorbs much of northeast Memphis, and though the new district contains significantly more Democrats than before, it remains quite friendly to the GOP, with a new Baseline of R+20. That’s more than enough for Rep. David Kustoff to win re-election. 

9th District. The current 9th District, a compact Solid Democratic seat based in Memphis, is effectively demolished by the new map. In its place is a seat that stretches east in a thin line from South Memphis, 250 miles along the Mississippi and Alabama borders, and then shoots north to take in the eastern half of Williamson County. The new district is just 31 percent Black, compared to 61 percent under the old map. Its Baseline is an uncompetitive R+15 and it would have voted for Donald Trump in 2024 by 21 points.

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Kiggans’ experience as a helicopter pilot and nurse practitioner has made her a favorite among GOP strategists — and she has even extracted grudging notes of appreciation and respect from the national and Virginia Democrats who have spent two cycles trying unsuccessfully to paint her as an extremist.

But a midterm election with a…

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Republicans hope to change that this cycle, boosted by a set of fresh-faced recruits and a new congressional map that ratchets up the pressure on several Democratic incumbents. One of those pressured Democrats is Vicente Gonzalez, whose 34th District swung hard toward Trump in 2024 and got even…

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Early in the cycle, Republicans were determined to gain as many as three House seats in the Buckeye State. But with six months to go before the general election, Republicans might be fortunate to gain a single seat, if any at all.

In Ohio’s 9th District, GOP primary voters selected state Rep. Derek Merrin (43 percent) over state Rep. Josh Williams (26 percent), former ICE deputy director Madison Sheahan (20 percent) and two others. Even though Merrin came within…

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Florida’s new congressional map could net House Republicans as many as four additional seats this fall, though it could also result in much smaller gains for the GOP. 

The plan, approved by the Florida state legislature and signed into law by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, comes in the wake of Democrats’ aggressive redraw in Virginia, in the latest battles of the redistricting war.

The new map eliminates one Democrat-held district south of Orlando. Tampa’s Democrats, once mostly concentrated in the 14th District, are now cracked across four districts that each voted for Trump by 10 to 20 points. And although Democrats carried five South Florida seats in 2024, that delegation might be reduced to three after 2026.

Kamala Harris would have finished ahead of Donald Trump in four seats under the new map, compared to eight under the previous map. 

DeSantis argued that the previous map was drawn, by Republicans, using flawed census data on unconstitutional grounds. His team contended that Florida’s Fair Districts Amendment, which was approved by voters in 2010 and bars gerrymandering for partisan purposes, would run afoul of the anticipated — and ultimately delivered — Callais decision from the Supreme Court.

The old map contained four majority-Hispanic districts while the new map only contains three: one of the eliminated Democratic-held seats, Florida’s 9th District, is now 41 percent Hispanic. 

The map is already facing legal challenges, but most of the justices on the Florida Supreme Court are DeSantis appointees and the court previously approved the 2022 map, which itself advantaged Republicans.

North Florida
There are no changes to Florida’s 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th districts in North Florida. There also weren’t any changes to the 7th District, currently represented by GOP Rep. Cory Mills, But the congressman is the subject of an ethics investigation and the race is competitive and rated Likely Republican.

Central Florida
The 8th District pulls more into Orange County toward Orlando, picking up University of Central Florida from the 10th District, in exchange for Indian River County. The district’s Baseline average would tighten from R+23 to R+17 — but cozy enough for Republican Rep. Mike Haridopolos to likely win re-election.

Florida’s 9th, represented by Democratic Rep. Darren Soto, is dramatically redrawn. Once contained around Kissimmee, the district is now sprawling — approximately three-fifths of the population in the old 9th District overlaps with the new version. The new lines include Indian River County (home to Vero Beach and Sebastian) and extends south into Highlands (Avon Park and Sebring), Glades, and Okeechobee counties. 

In return, the district drops some of its reach into Orlando and Kissimmee — and Poinciana entirely. The Hispanic population decreases from 54 percent under the old lines to 41 percent under the new map, meaning it is no longer majority Hispanic. These changes would be enough to flip the 9th District’s Baseline from D+10 to R+15. And it’s trending toward Trump: he won by 2 points in 2016, 7 points in 2020, and 18 points in 2024. 

But Soto appears willing to seek re-election to his reconfigured seat. According to Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics, possible Republican candidates in the 9th District could include Osceola County Commissioner Ricky Booth and former state Rep. Mike de la Rosa. Likely Republican.

Florida’s 10th District. The demographics are virtually unchanged — retains three-fourths of its current population. The district is still located completely within Orange County but exchanges UCF for reach into South Apopka. The new map increases Democrats’ Baseline advantage in the 10th District by one point to D+26. Democratic Rep. Maxwell Frost is in no real danger. Solid Democratic.

Florida’s 11th District retains 85 percent of the population. Already containing Walt Disney World, it now reaches past Doctor Phillips to take in Universal Orlando Resort. Baseline moves from R+20 under the old lines to R+18 under the new lines. After Republican Rep. Daniel Webster announced his retirement, six Republicans and four Democrats have filed to run, including Lake County Commissioner Anthony Sabatini, who briefly ran against Webster in the 2024 primary. Solid Republican.

Tampa Bay
Florida’s 12th District shifts south as the district and is still reliably red, but becomes much bluer — from R+34 to R+12. The new lines drop Citrus and Hernando counties and now reach toward Dade City with substantial reach into Hillsborough County toward Tampa. The district retains 41 percent of the current 12th District’s population, with the rest split between the old 14th and old 15th. The share of adults with a Bachelor’s degree jumps from 24 percent to 34 percent, close to the national average of 37 percent. The share of white population drops from 74 percent to 55 percent, while the Hispanic share rises from 15 percent to 28 percent. 

While Trump would have carried the new 12th by 15 points, he would have secured a narrower 6-point victory in 2020. Republican Rep. Gus Bilirakis has said he will seek re-election to the 12th District. Democrat Kim Overman, the former Hillsborough County commissioner who had been running in the 15th District, said she will instead run against Bilirakis. Army veteran and former CIA officer Chris Irizarry is also running. Solid Republican, but worth keeping an eye on in a great Democratic year.

Florida’s 13th retains four-fifths of its population, anchored around Clearwater and the rest of central Pinellas County. The lines pick up northern portions of St. Petersburg in exchange for southern portions reaching toward St. Pete Beach. In the north, it also reaches into Pasco County. Retired Army Brigadier General Leela Grey is a compelling challenger to Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, if she can make it through a crowded Democratic primary field. Likely Republican.  

Florida’s 14th District is one of the Democratic-held districts targeted in the redraw. Currently held by Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor, the new 14th keeps less than one third of its old population, with around half of the new district’s residents coming from the old 16th District, and the rest from the former 15th. The 14th District previously included Tampa and St. Petersburg, but now only it takes a sliver of Tampa and none of St. Petersburg. The lines also extend away from the coast to take in mostly Republican precincts — plus some more evenly-divided areas near Brandon and Riverview, as well as majority-Hispanic Town ‘n’ Country.

In both versions of the 14th District, Hispanics made up 28 percent of the population. The average margin according to Baseline was D+12 on the old map and R+11 on the new map; Trump also would have carried the new version of the 14th by 11 points in 2024. The new 14th District looked better for Democrats last decade: it would have backed Republican candidates by 5 points on average in 2018 statewide and federal races, and Trump would have won it by just 3 points in 2020. Castor has said she will continue campaigning in this seat even with the less favorable lines. Lean Republican.

Florida’s 15th District used to be split between Polk, Pasco, and Hillsborough. But it now no longer reaches into Polk, and goes up into Hernando and Citrus. The new 15th shares only 36 percent of its population with the old version, with half of it coming from the old 12th District. But in return it becomes more solidly Republican, moving from R+10 to R+17 in Baseline. The seat used to connect Lakeland to Tampa, bringing in a range of communities including Pebble Creek, Plant City, and Zephyrhills — not to mention the University of South Florida. The new version drops Plant City, instead reaching toward Dade City in Pasco County and Brooksville and Spring HIll in Hernando County. GOP Rep. Laurel Lee would technically live in the new 14th District but has said she will run again in her current 15th — although she faces a primary challenge from Hernando County Commissioner Steve Champion. Solid Republican.

Florida’s 16th District contains around half of its old population, with another 20 percent coming from the old 13th District. The demographics don’t change much. Formerly confined to Hillsborough and Manatee counties, it drops HIllsborough in exchange for all of DeSoto County (Arcadia) and Hardee County (Wauchula), plus portions of Polk and Sarasota counties. The district no longer includes Riverview or Apollo Beach, and its baseline moves from R+17 to R+12. Republican Rep. Vern Buchanan is retiring, and Sydney Gruters, the wife of RNC chairman Joe Gruters, is the favorite to succeed him. Former Sarasota Mayor Kelly Kirschner, who comes from a prominent political family, is a credible candidate for Democrats and this district could be one to watch if the bottom falls out for Republicans. Solid Republican.

Florida’s 17th District retains 85 percent of its population, keeping all of Charlotte County. It sheds a slice of Sarasota County, while in Lee County it trades most of Lehigh Acres in exchange for Fort Myers. There’s not much difference demographically and the partisanship moves slightly, from R+22 to R+20. Republican Rep. Greg Steube should be fine. Solid Republican.

Florida’s 18th District is much smaller area-wise — dropping a half-dozen less-populous counties — but the new lines retain nearly two-thirds of the original population, still situated in Polk County. Now geographically centered around Winter Haven, the district keeps Haines City and Lake Wales while picking up Poinciana and the rest of Lakeland. Demographics between both district versions are mostly the same, but the Baseline margin tightens from R+30 to R+17 — which is probably not a problem for GOP Rep. Scott Franklin. Solid Republican.

Florida’s 19th District retains 80 percent of its population. It still combines Cape Coral and Fort Myers with Naples. But the new version trades Fort Myers to the 17th District for Lehigh Acres, and drops Marco Island in exchange for residential communities east of Naples. Baseline partisanship stays at R+32 in this open seat, with GOP Rep. Byron Donalds running for governor. According to Florida Politics, “most of the Republicans running say they will stay” in the 19th District, but former New York Rep. Chris Collins, one of several former members making a comeback bid in the GOP primary, might also switch to running in the 19th District. Solid Republican.

Florida’s 20th District retains two-thirds of its old population. But it is much tinier geographically, trading in distant cities in Palm Beach County for closer precincts in Coral Springs and Fort Lauderdale — dropping the share of Black residents from 49 percent to 42 percent. The average Democratic advantage shrinks from 49 points to 46 points under the new map, making it safe for whichever Democrat replaces former Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who resigned following an ethics inquiry into a misuse of government funds reported upon first by Inside Elections. Cherfilus-McCormick is running for her old seat but faces a number of primary opponents, and there are rumblings that Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz may also run here. Solid Democratic.

Florida’s 21st District keeps 95 percent of its old population, trading communities from its southern tip in Palm Beach County to make way for the new 20th District. The 21st District's Baseline partisanship is one point less Republican-leaning than before — it is now R+15, which creates some wiggle room for GOP Rep. Brian Mast. Solid Republican.

South Florida
The previous map produced five Democratic-leaning seats in South Florida. But the new map packs Democrats into three districts: in West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, and Miami.

Florida’s 22nd District. Both demolished Democratic-held seats are virtually unrecognizable after the makeover. The primary overlap between both versions of the 22nd District is Wellington in Palm Beach County — approximately 13 percent of the district’s population. (Meanwhile, 24 percent comes from the old 25th District, 22 percent from the old 23rd, 17 percent from the old 26h, and 12 percent from the old 20th, with the remainder spread across three additional districts.)

The previous version of the 22nd hugged the coast from Palm Beach to Delray Beach. But now Wellington, a half-hour drive from the beach, is the easternmost point — with the lines stretching down into the top half of Broward County and west to cover all of Hendry County and non-Naples Collier County. These changes transform the district from D+12 to R+5, and while Trump would have won the seat by 10 points in 2024, he would have lost it by 3 points in 2020. Demographically the district didn’t change much: 44 percent of the population is white and 34 percent is Hispanic, while 42 percent of adults have a college degree. Wasserman-Schultz might run here given the overlap with her old district. Tilt Republican.

Florida’s 23rd District is effectively a renumbered version of the 22nd District currently held by Democratic Rep. Lois Frankel. The new 23rd contains 80 percent of the old 22nd, with the remainder coming from the old 20th. The 23rd District previously resembled the number 7, connecting to Fort Lauderdale via Coral Springs and Parkland. But now the district moves north, bridging Delray Beach to Riviera Beach, with Boynton Beach, Palm Springs, and West Palm Beach in between. This packs Democrats, bumping the Baseline average from D+8 to D+21. The population is 39 percent white, 30 percent Hispanic, and 25 percent Black, and one-third of adults have a college degree. Florida Politics reports that Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz, who currently represents the 23rd District, “has his eyes” on running here over to the new 25th. But Frankel needs a home too. Solid Democratic.

Florida’s 24th District retains 70 percent of its old population, shedding its eastern reach into Miami Beach and North Miami Beach in return for northern reach into Hollywood. But both versions remain anchored in Miami Gardens and North Miami. The district is 43 percent Hispanic, 43 percent Black, and 10 percent white; 24 percent of adults have a bachelor’s degree, compared to 32 percent under the previous map). The Democratic Baseline advantage grew from D+48 to D+56 — a safe bet for Democratic Rep. Frederica Wilson to win her ninth term. Solid Democratic.

Florida’s 25th is another district with no true predecessor — formed by leftover pieces not used to pack the three remaining Democratic-leaning districts. Forty-six percent of its population comes from the old 23rd District, while 30 percent is from the outgoing 24th District and just 16 percent comes from the original 25th District.

The 25th previously stretched from Hollywood and Davie to Weston, Pembroke Pines, and Miramar. But now it only keeps the communities on the coast — one section of a long, thin district binding Boca Raton to Miami Beach. The result is a population that is whiter (54 percent, compared to 31 percent under the old map) and more likely to have a college degree (49 percent, up from 42 percent). But with many red precincts picked up along the beaches, the Democratic Baseline shrinks from D+15 to even. At least two credible Republicans, former state Rep. George Moraitis and Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer, have already swapped over to the new 25th. Moskowitz could run here and would be a credible Democrat in a district that voted for Biden by 9 points in 2020 and for Trump by 5 points in 2024. Toss-up.

In Florida’s 26th District, Republican Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart made the biggest sacrifices, befitting for one of the top GOP overperformers in the country. The GOP Baseline advantage in the district tightened considerably from R+27 to R+6. The district used to cover the top slice of Miami-Dade County and the outskirts of Naples in Collier County. The district retains 60 percent of its population, mostly in Miami-Dade County — including the heavily Hispanic communities of Hialeah and Doral — but also picks up many blue-leaning precincts from Broward County. 

Based on past presidential results, the 26th District would have swung nearly 40 points in eight years: Hillary Clinton would have carried the new 26th by 20 points in 2016, while Trump would have won by 2 points in 2020 and 18 points in 2024. Demographically, 36 percent of adults have a bachelor’s degree —  a 5-point increase compared to the previous map — while Hispanic voters still make up three-fourths of the district’s population. Solid Republican, but could get more interesting.

The 27th and 28th districts are identical to the old map except for a few precincts. 

Like the 26th District, the 27th and 28th voted for Clinton in 2016 before swinging hard for Trump in 2020 and 2024. Approximately 70 percent of the populations in both districts are Hispanic. But 44 percent of adults in the 27th District have a college degree, compared to 30 percent of the 28th. This seat could be in danger for Republicans if the conditions are right for Democrats, and a newscaster vs. newscaster battle between GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar and Democratic Elliot Rodriguez could be interesting. Likely Republican.

The 28th District remains a reach for Democrats, but a sizable enough swing among Hispanic voters could put Rep. Carlos Gimenez in some danger. Hector Mujica, the former director of American philanthropy at Google, is running. So is Phil Ehr, a Navy veteran and perennial candidate who lost to Gimenez by 19 points in 2024. Solid Republican.

Editor's Note: An earlier version of this story misstated the first name of Rep. Castor: she's Kathy, not Kelly.

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On Wednesday, the Supreme Court struck down Louisiana’s congressional map as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, in a decision that could have far-reaching implications for a dozen or more Democratic-held districts across the South and around the country. The immediate effects of the decision on the 2026 midterms, however, are less clear. And as Democrats continue to perform strongly in competitive House districts across the country, it’s unlikely that this decision changes the underlying assessment that Democrats are favored to take back the House.

The Callais decision, authored by Justice Samuel Alito and joined by his five conservative colleagues, did not strike down Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, as some had anticipated. But Alito altered its interpretation to such a degree that the law, which for decades has helped protect majority-Black and majority-Hispanic seats from being dismantled by aggressive gerrymanders, may in effect be toothless moving forward. In her dissent, Justice Elena Kagan wrote that the “decision renders Section 2 all but a dead letter.”

In practice, the Court’s decision likely comes too late to affect most states’ redistricting processes ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, even as the redistricting wars have raged on for the past 10 months. And because the Court did not explicitly overturn Section 2, it’s not obvious the extent to which mapmakers now have license to dismantle minority-opportunity districts with abandon.

First, the timing. The case centered on a majority-Black district Louisiana mapmakers drew ahead of the 2024 election following a previous Supreme Court decision. That district, now held by Democrat Cleo Fields, stretched from Shreveport to Baton Rouge and was challenged by “non-Black plaintiffs” in Callais. 

That district will almost certainly cease to exist after this year. So may Alabama’s 2nd District, another minority-opportunity district drawn after the Court’s 2024 decision and held by Democrat Shomari Figures.

But it’s not clear if there is enough time ahead of this election for the Louisiana and Alabama legislatures to redraw its maps ahead of November. Both states’ filing deadlines have already passed, and their primaries — May 16 and May 19, respectively — are fast approaching. It’s not unheard of for states to hold statewide and congressional primaries on separate dates due to ongoing litigation, but inertia can be strong in redistricting cases, especially as absentee ballots have already been mailed out in both states and early in-person voting begins in Louisiana in two days.

It’s a similar story in other states across the South home to VRA-protected districts. Filing deadlines have passed in South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, and Mississippi. The primaries have already happened in Texas and North Carolina. The calendar may ultimately limit the ability of states to redraw their maps ahead of 2026 in response to this decision.

A more pressing case may be Florida’s ongoing effort to redraw its congressional map to help Republicans pick up as many as four additional seats. The ostensible rationale for approving Gov. Ron DeSantis’ proposed map rested in part on the assumption that the Court would strike down Section 2 of the VRA entirely, and also that Florida’s own anti-gerrymandering constitutional amendment is superseded by federal law. The Court’s decision to leave Section 2 in place, albeit essentially defanged, may not prevent the Florida legislature from approving the DeSantis map, but could create complications when the map is challenged in court.

Second, the scope. There is a long list of districts that could potentially be affected by this decision in the South alone: one seat each in both Louisiana and Alabama (in addition to the two seats mentioned above), one seat each in Mississippi and South Carolina, and another handful each across Georgia, Florida, and Texas. 

A maximalist reaction to Callais could see Republicans aim to eviscerate all or most of those districts ahead of the 2028 elections, including seats held by longtime Democratic power players such as South Carolina’s Jim Clyburn and Mississippi’s Bennie Thompson. But those choices will come under individual legal scrutiny, in addition to the political challenges that accompany wholesale reconfigurations of congressional maps.

An early indication may come from Louisiana’s next steps. If the GOP-controlled legislature approves a map that dismantles not only Fields’ new district but also the longstanding majority-Black New Orleans-based district held by Democrat Troy Carter, it would be a sign that Republicans are opting for a maximalist approach. If Louisiana instead reverts to a pre-2024 status quo map that leaves Carter’s 2nd District unchanged, it would signal a more hesitant approach.

The medium- and long-term effects of this decision remain uncertain — especially if in 2028 Democrats respond in kind with more aggressive gerrymandering in the states under their control, such as Colorado, New York, Maryland, Oregon and elsewhere. But within the context of the 2026 elections, much is still the same. Democrats maintain an advantage on the generic ballot, the Republican president is deeply unpopular, and the vast majority of Congressional districts are largely set in place. With Democrats needing a net gain of just 3 seats to reclaim control, they remain favored to win the House this fall.

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The redistricting war continues with Florida. The potentially new congressional map drawn and proposed by Republicans could help the party gain as many as four additional seats. But those gains could be difficult in the current political environment that favors Democrats. We'll change appropriate race ratings when a new map is in place. But for now, here's how the potentially new districts compare to the current lines. 

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The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential and gubernatorial races in a nonpartisan, data-driven, and accessible way. With a combination of reporting and data, Inside Elections brings valuable context to complex races. Go to InsideElections.com to subscribe to the bi-weekly newsletter through individual subscriptions and group packages that are tailored for association and corporate PACs.

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Just a few months ago, Republican strategists expressed optimism about their party’s midterm fortunes. Despite President Donald Trump's mediocre job approval rating, gas prices were falling, the stock market was surging and tax refunds were imminent. Republicans felt like they had time to turn things around before November. But the president’s war with Iran has at least stalled that momentum, Election Day creeps closer and there’s considerable doubt that Republicans can reassemble the 2024 Trump coalition.

By this point in his first term Trump’s job rating had taken a modest turn for the…

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The two recently filled congressional seats, Georgia’s 14th and New Jersey’s 11th, are respectively Solid Republican and Solid Democratic, so flips were never on the table. But in both races — like in every other special House election this cycle — the Democrat overperformed and the Republican underperformed.

According to Inside Elections’ Baseline and Vote Above Replacement, Democrats have run 7.6…

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Florida’s 20th District. Democrat Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick resigned minutes before a House Ethics Committee hearing that could…

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Updated April 23, 11:51am

Virginia voters approved a new congressional map on Tuesday that will help Democrats flip as many as four GOP-held seats this fall. The referendum passed, 51.5-48.6 percent, roughly half of the margin that Kamala Harris posted against President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election.

Republican Reps. Rob Wittman, Jen Kiggans, John McGuire and Ben Cline saw their districts made significantly more favorable to Democrats or dismantled entirely. Republicans are still challenging the referendum in court, and a local judge enjoined the new map on Wednesday. But the ultimate authority on the matter, the state Supreme Court, has appeared hesitant to stop the new map from being used.

As a result, Inside Elections is making five ratings shifts in the Old Dominion. 

1st District (Rob Wittman, R) shifts from Lean Republican to Solid Democratic.
2nd District (Jen Kiggans, R) shifts from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic.
5th District (John McGuire, R) shifts from Solid Republican to Solid Democratic.
6th District (Ben Cline, R) shifts from Solid Republican to Lean Democratic.
7th District (Eugene Vindman, D) shifts from Lean Democratic to Solid Democratic.

A full write-up of the changes to the Virginia map can be found in the April 16 issue.

Kiggans has said she will seek re-election to the 2nd District, though her path to victory is more difficult now. Cline gave a more cryptic answer, telling reporters he plans on “running in the current 6th District, where I currently live and have represented for eight years.” But that district does not exist on the new map, which placed Cline’s home in the neighboring 9th District. 

For his part, 9th District Rep. Morgan Griffith isn’t too worried about Cline running against him, telling Punchbowl, “it’s 81 percent my district.”

Vindman, as expected, said he would run in the new 1st District, opening up the 7th District. And at least one Democrat got a new primary challenger in the hours after the referendum passed, as former fighter pilot Jason Knapp switched from running in the 1st District to challenge Don Beyer in the new 8th District. 

Democrats need a net gain of three seats nationwide to win back the House majority this fall. After these ratings changes, Democrats are favored in 216 districts, Republicans are favored in 210 districts, and 9 districts are rated as toss-ups. The magic number for a majority is 218. 

The Virginia results give Democrats the potential edge in the mid-decade redistricting war that was started by the White House in order to try and preserve the GOP majority. But Democrats striking back with new maps in California and Virginia might have some Republican strategists second-guessing whether it was worth the effort. 

VA1 Wittman, R — Solid Democratic (from Lean Republican)
VA2 Kiggans, R — Tilt Democratic (from Toss-up)
VA3 Scott, D — Solid Democratic
VA4 McClellan, D — Solid Democratic
VA5 McGuire, R — Solid Democratic (from Solid Republican)
VA6 Cline, R — Lean Democratic (from Solid Republican)
VA7 Vindman, D — Solid Democratic (from Lean Democratic)
VA8 Beyer, D — Solid Democratic
VA9 Griffith, R — Solid Republican
VA10 Subramanyan, D — Solid Democratic
VA11 Walkinshaw, D — Solid Democratic

View Article at Inside Elections