Inside Elections

Podcast Episode 68: Best Campaign Ad Draft w/ Erin Covey and Kirk Bado

2026-04-06T20:17:00+00:00

Jacob Rubashkin, Erin Covey of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, and Kirk Bado of National Journal’s Hotline draft the best and most iconic campaign ads of the 21st century. It’s spring break, so the crew also discusses their ideal vacation destinations, and some good books and articles they’ve read recently.

Listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Pocket Casts here.

The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential and gubernatorial races in a nonpartisan, data-driven, and accessible way. With a combination of reporting and data, Inside Elections brings valuable context to complex races. Go to InsideElections.com to subscribe to the bi-weekly newsletter through individual subscriptions and group packages that are tailored for association and corporate PACs.

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Alaska Senate: Democrats Reach Into The Red

2026-03-26T18:30:00+00:00

The first Alaska Native to represent the Last Frontier in Congress could be the final piece for a Democratic Senate majority this fall.

Former Rep. Mary Peltola’s decision to run for Senate rather than governor — a race she might have dominated wire to wire — puts this race in contention for Democrats, who now have a proven fundraiser who’s shown she can win an elusive state with a cross-partisan coalition.

GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan, who fended off a well-funded challenger in 2020, is less of a household name than his headline-grabbing colleague Lisa Murkowski. That will have to change…

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Ohio Senate: Can Husted Hold On?

2026-03-26T18:29:00+00:00

Ohio may have fallen out of the conversation as a presidential bellwether state. But it remains a critical piece of the Senate battleground, and the outcome of its 2026 race could determine majority control next year.

Sen. Jon Husted, appointed by Gov. Mike DeWine following the election of JD Vance as vice president, has been thrust onto the biggest stage of his political career. A lifelong Ohioan who dreamed of becoming governor, Husted now must contend with a midterm environment and unpopular Republican president, while also introducing himself to voters who weren’t familiar with him as lieutenant governor or secretary…

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When Do “Whale” Donors Keep Campaigns Afloat?

2026-03-26T18:28:00+00:00

By Bradley Wascher

When Elon Musk dove in to support Kentucky Senate candidate Nate Morris’ campaign in January, he certainly made a splash: $10 million — made out to a pro-Morris super PAC — is more money than most first-time candidates have going for them.

The cash infusion could be enough to boost Morris into contention for the GOP nomination to succeed Sen. Mitch McConnell. But Morris, a Lexington businessman, wouldn’t be the first person to get excited about a “whale” donor only to discover the seaweed may be greener in another candidate’s lake.

Before Musk’s involvement, Morris trailed the field on two fronts. Early primary polls have found him behind both frontrunners — 6th District Rep. Andy Barr and former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron — by double digits.

And while Morris’ money from Musk will make this long-shot candidate the best financed in the field in terms of total dollars, money spent by a super PAC is typically less effective than money spent by a campaign itself — and Morris is still third in “hard dollar” fundraising.

According to FEC filings through December, Morris brought in less from itemized and unitemized contributions than either Barr or Cameron. This excludes self-funding, as Morris also put over $4 million toward his own campaign.

Musk isn’t the only source of outside money in the race — and Morris isn’t the only recipient. So far, Keep America Great PAC has spent $4.8 million supporting Barr and opposing Morris, while the Club for Growth has spent $4.5 million against Barr. Morris has also seen approximately $4 million from Fight for Kentucky beyond Musk’s expenditure. But outside groups pay more for television ads because stations do not have to offer them the required, lower candidate rate, so the money doesn’t go as far.

Anemic individual contributions are a symptom of Morris’ core challenge: making his case against two proven contenders. According to Inside Elections Vote Above Replacement, Barr finished 9 points ahead of the Republican Baseline in his two most recent races. Cameron earned a 1.1 VAR in 2019 but underperformed by over 10 points in 2023 against the uniquely dominant Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear.

Ten million bucks can help buy name recognition. And in 2024, when Musk spent hundreds of millions of dollars backing Trump and other Republicans, the party won. But based on recent history, these splashy, eight-figure expenditures don’t always make the biggest waves in congressional races, especially by primary day.

Successful Cash Splash
The most optimistic case study for Morris might be the current vice president — who was himself once the beneficiary of a fundraising whale.

In the 2022 Ohio GOP Senate primary, JD Vance triumphed as a political newcomer over a pair of current and former elected officials. His fortunes were lifted by $15 million in outside support from Silicon Valley billionaire Peter Thiel.

Thiel’s massive outlays to the pro-Vance Protect Ohio Values PAC, on top of Vance’s other fundraising channels, helped the candidate outraise state Sen. Matt Dolan. Dolan poured $10 million of his own money into the race, including an $8 million injection six months before the primary.

When votes were tallied, Dolan basically tied for second with former state Treasurer Josh Mandel. Mandel was the only candidate on the podium who didn’t self-fund: even Vance donated $700,000 of his own money to the campaign, mostly near the end.

Mandel did, however, have a healthy intake of contributions from other people. While self-contributed dollars follow the same spending rules as typical donations, the distinction matters. Hard-dollar donors are a plausible proxy for organic or grassroots support, given that Mandel — the top fundraiser in this category — finished 6,600 votes ahead of Dolan despite being down $8.5 million overall.

The victorious Vance also received a hearty share of donations. (An April endorsement from his future running mate, Donald Trump, was no doubt a draw.) Crucially, this allowed Vance’s campaign to diversify its financial support, meaning he did not depend solely on Thiel’s money.

Thiel's bankrolling in 2022 wasn't limited to Ohio. He also spent big in the Arizona GOP Senate primary, backing his protégé Blake Masters. Both races had similar dynamics: Masters ran against Jim Lamon, a business executive with seemingly endless self-funding capacity; and state Attorney General Mark Brnovich, who was well-positioned in hard dollars but outgunned overall.

Even with Thiel's outside millions, Masters couldn't match Lamon in total supportive spending, but as the best-funded candidate in hard dollars, he still clinched the Republican nomination. (Masters would go on to lose the general election to Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly — a reminder that whale money may carry more weight in primaries, where the electorate is smaller and often narrower.)

Variety of financial support is a key difference between Morris and the future veep.

At this point in 2022, the Ohio GOP primary was still heating up, and Team Vance’s finances were more modest than they would be by the end. His effort’s outside support in February was primarily riding Thiel’s early waves of cashflow, before a deluge of millions more in the final few weeks.

Prior to the Musk expenditure, most of Morris’ money came from himself. Of the approximately $6 million in hard money behind his campaign at the end of December, nearly three quarters was self-contributed.

With this context, the combination of Morris’ self-funding and outside money is staggering. After accounting for the $10 million from Musk, Morris is set to benefit from nearly as much money as Vance’s total at the end of the GOP primary, with 100 days still left to go in Kentucky.

Spouting Off Too Much
Cash distribution is still the biggest red flag for Morris. His overall situation more closely resembles that of another — far less successful — whale attractor.

In 2022, researcher Carrick Flynn sought the Democratic nomination for Oregon's 6th Congressional District. Flynn benefitted from more than $10 million from a super PAC affiliated with the now-disgraced crypto founder Sam Bankman-Fried.

It was the most outside spending by any single group in House primary history. But despite the high-rolling effort, Flynn finished in a distant second place.

The winner of the 2022 Democratic primary in Oregon’s 6th District — now-Rep. Andrea Salinas — was backed by less money in a more balanced arrangement.

Like Vance and Mandel in Ohio, a vital share of Salinas’ support was in the form of money she raised from others, with an influx of outside spending (including over $1 million in the final few weeks from the Congressional Hispanic Caucus BOLD PAC). This meant around two-thirds of her total support in the primary came from independent expenditures.

The difference is that Salinas won despite finishing far behind Flynn in the cash dash, whereas Vance only narrowly outran Dolan in funds by the end.

One reason: Flynn’s boatload of bankroll from Bankman-Fried probably saw diminishing returns. Ten million dollars was a lot to burn in a congressional primary during a midterm year, when just 71,000 votes were cast.

The risk of oversaturation is smaller in statewide races. For example, Thiel’s $15 million toward Vance could have been spent in any of the 12 media markets covering Ohio. Likewise, Kentucky contains 10 media markets. Oregon’s 6th District is served by just one.

Bankman-Fried waded into a handful of other primaries in 2022, but these excursions were considerably less expensive.

His super PAC, Protect Our Future, contributed between $1 million and $2 million to five other Democratic House primary candidates in safe districts that cycle — and four of them won, eventually heading to Congress. But in each of those races, Bankman-Fried’s money was one piece of a larger financial picture: alongside Protect Our Future's investment, every candidate received at least a million dollars in outside support from a separate source. The one SBF-backed candidate who lost a primary, Adam Hollier in Michigan's 13th District, was undone by opponent Shri Thanedar's gargantuan self-funding, which carried Thanedar to a plurality win with just 27 percent in a fractured field.

The lesson: Bankman-Fried's money worked best when it amplified candidates who already had diverse financial support. Flynn was the exception because Protect Our Future's spending wasn't a supplement, it was the whole whale.

Win or lose, disproportionate billionaire expenditures will place Morris alongside Flynn in the history books. Without Musk, the self-funding Kentucky businessman might have had a trajectory closer to the third-place candidate in the Oregon Democratic primary: virtually all $2.7 million in support of Cody Reynolds’ campaign came from his own wallet.

To the pro-Morris’ effort’s credit, their finances are slightly more diverse than that. Conservative mega-donors Jeff Yass and Richard Uihlein have each spent more than $1 million on pro-Morris ads through various super PACs.

As of late March, outside money accounted for around 60 percent of all pro-Morris financial support. Ninety-one percent of the pro-Flynn final funds, for comparison, came from independent expenditures.

The Bottom Line
Whale donations can only take a candidate so far, and it remains a sign of health for a campaign to have multiple different sources of funding and support.

The difference between Vance in Ohio and Flynn in Oregon was composition, not amount. Vance's financial support included a meaningful base of organic contributions, whereas Flynn was almost entirely backed by Bankman-Fried. Even the crypto mogul's other investments that cycle pointed the same way: the most successful primary candidates drew in additional sources of support. Indeed, Salinas — like Vance — was boosted by outside money, while also raking in “typical” contributions.

For Morris in Kentucky, the takeaway is mixed.

He now has an extra $10 million behind his campaign. But splashy outside spending does not relieve a drought of direct contributions, and self-funding isn’t always a direct alternative.

By contrast, the two frontrunners in the GOP primary, Barr and Cameron, have neither contributed their own money nor seen skyscraper-sized outside spending on their behalf.

So far, the strategy is paying off better for the congressman. At the end of 2025, Barr had raised nearly four times as much from donors as Cameron had, with Morris right on the former state attorney general’s tail.

Polls fielded after Musk’s announcement continue to find Morris stuck in bronze medal position.

In early February, Morris’ campaign released a survey showing the candidate within striking distance of second place, just 3 points behind Barr and double digits behind Cameron. But the next few days brought two polls from independent sources: Emerson College saw Morris seven points behind second place, while Quantus Insights had him short by 10. A March poll from a pro-Barr super PAC had a similar result: Cameron and Barr hovering around 30 percent, Morris behind with just 13 percent.

One barrier has been name recognition. According to Morris’ poll, 26 percent of Kentucky GOP voters had never heard of him — way down from 49 percent five months earlier — and an additional 27 percent had heard of Morris without holding an opinion. In that span, his net favorability rating (favorable minus unfavorable) improved from -3 to +11.

The primary is on May 19, meaning Morris still has nearly two months to raise and spend — though so do Barr and Cameron. Trump’s endorsement would boost any of the three candidates, and the dark horse Morris styles himself as an America First outsider.

All told, if Musk’s bet on Morris does flop, the world’s wealthiest man would at least prove his spot in the ignominious pod of washed campaign whales.

In 2025, Musk funneled nearly $20 million toward conservative Brad Schimel as he lost a Wisconsin state Supreme Court election by 10 points. And in 2022, hedge fund manager Ken Griffin spent $50 million backing Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin in his bid for the GOP nomination for governor in Illinois — an investment good for 15 percent, or a distant tie for second.

Sometimes whales make waves. Other times they’re just a drop in the bucket.

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Report Shorts (March 26, 2026)

2026-03-26T18:27:00+00:00

Colorado’s 3rd District. Just weeks after rescinding his endorsement of GOP Rep. Jeff Hurd and backing a more conservative primary challenger, President Donald Trump announced that the challenger, Hope Scheppelman, would drop out of the race and join his administration. Trump re-endorsed Hurd, who sits at the very edge of the House battleground. Likely Republican.

Iowa Governor. State Auditor Rob Sand, the presumptive Democratic nominee, is running a strong campaign focused on the general election. He’s a capable fundraiser from a wealthy family and a press darling thanks to his penchant for hunting and quoting Bible verses. Republicans have a…

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2026 Gubernatorial Ratings (March 26, 2026)

2026-03-26T18:25:00+00:00

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2026 Senate Ratings (March 26, 2026)

2026-03-25T18:54:00+00:00

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Podcast Episode 67: Democrats Favored to Win House Majority w/ Mel McIntire of Roll Call

2026-03-20T16:31:00+00:00

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Mary Ellen McIntire of Roll Call analyze the fight for the House majority including a dozen recent race rating changes by Inside Elections. Democrats need a net gain of three seats in the November general election and are favored to take control from Republicans. Mel also reveals her favorite Easter candy, Jacob has another favorite book, and Nathan recommends yet another band that Jacob has never heard of.

Listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Pocket Casts here.

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Illinois Primary Results: Democrats Nominate Likely New Members

2026-03-18T16:36:00+00:00

By Jacob Rubashkin

Voters in Illinois headed to the polls Tuesday to choose their nominees for the open Senate seat vacated by Sen. Dick Durbin and a slew of open House seats. Both the Senate seat and the four open House districts are rated Solid Democratic, so the winners of the Democratic primaries will almost certainly be in Congress next year.

All of the races saw significant spending from outside groups, most notably from a network of super PACs aligned with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the pro-cryptocurrency group Fairshake, and the pro-AI group Leading the Future, which combined to spend at least $35 million on advertising.

Senate.
Lieutenant Governor Julianna Stratton completed a stunning come-from-behind victory over Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi in the Democratic primary, winning 40-33 percent and clearing her path to becoming the fifth Black woman elected to the Senate. Krishnamoorthi outspent Stratton nearly 10-to-1; his TV ads, which began last year, gave him an early polling lead which he did not give up until mid-February, when a pro-Stratton super PAC funded by Gov. JB Pritzker began advertising on her behalf. A $10 million anti-Stratton push from cryptocurrency group Fairshake couldn’t blunt her momentum. Rep. Robin Kelly finished third with 18 percent. Republicans nominated former state party chairman Don Tracy. Solid Democratic.

2nd District.
Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller won a comfortable 40-29 percent victory over former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. in the Democratic primary to succeed Rep. Robin Kelly. Miller was backed by millions of dollars in advertising from a group tied to pro-Israel AIPAC, while Jackson, who previously held this seat before resigning and serving federal prison time, was back by pro-cryptocurrency and pro-AI interests. State Sen. Robert Peters was endorsed by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and other progressive leaders but placed a distant third with 12 percent. Solid Democratic.

7th District.
Retiring Rep. Danny Davis saw his chosen successor across the finish line as state Rep. La Shawn Ford narrowly outpaced Chicago Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin, 24-21 percent, in the Democratic primary. Conyears-Ervin had benefitted from spending by groups tied to AIPAC, while Ford weathered attacks from a pro-crypocurrency group. Union leader Anthony Driver Jr. placed third with 11 percent, while progressive Kina Collins, who nearly defeated Davis in the 2022 primary, came in fourth with 10 percent. Solid Democratic.

8th District.
Former Rep. Melissa Bean, whose vote for the Affordable Care Act cost her this seat more than a decade ago, won her comeback bid with 32 percent against a fractured field. Her closest competitor, tech entrepreneur Junaid Ahmed, was backed by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and a slew of progressive organizations but couldn’t fully consolidate the left lane of the primary and finished with 27 percent. Veteran Dan Tully won 12 percent, while five other candidates finished in the single digits. Bean was supported by spending from PACs aligned with AIPAC, cryptocurrency interests, and pro-AI groups. Solid Democratic.

9th District.
Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss secured the Democratic nomination with 29 percent of the vote. The result itself was unremarkable — Biss runs the district’s most populous city and had an endorsement from outgoing Rep. Jan Schakowsky — but the race was anything but. AIPAC-aligned groups spent millions of dollars boosting state Sen. Laura Fine, whose position on Israel they preferred to Biss’s, who is himself the son of an Israeli immigrant. The AIPAC-aligned groups also spent money attacking a third candidate, journalist Kat Abughazaleh, who was the candidate most critical of Israel. Abughazaleh finished in second with 26 percent, while Fine won 20 percent. Progressive Bushra Amiwala, a Skokie Board of Education member, finished in sixth with 5 percent — pro-Israel groups launched a last-minute attempt to highlight her candidacy in an effort to siphon progressive votes from Biss and Abughazaleh. Solid Democratic.

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House Overview: Democrats Favored to Win the Majority

2026-03-12T18:30:00+00:00

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

With less than eight months to go, the Republican House majority is at considerable risk.

Historical midterm trends, President Donald Trump’s negative job rating and consistent Democratic overperformance in races around the country point to Democrats gaining at least the three seats they need to flip the House.

Republican optimism rooted in an improving economy hit a snag with the war with Iran. There’s no evidence Trump has even started an upward climb, even though there’s technically time for his standing to improve. And even though the Democratic Party brand is very unpopular,…

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House Overview (March 12, 2026): Alabama - Iowa

2026-03-12T18:29:00+00:00

Alabama. Primary May 19. Runoff (if necessary) June 16.
1st District (Southern Alabama) Open; Barry Moore, R, running for Senate. Trump 77%. Former Rep. Jerry Carl begins the GOP primary with a name ID advantage that gives him an early lead in polling, but state Rep. Rhett Marques had twice as much money in the bank on Dec. 31 and endorsements from dozens of state politicos, including Sen. Katie Boyd Britt. With former Green Beret Josh McKee also in the race and raising some money, this primary looks destined for a runoff. Moore’s wife and top political adviser Heather…

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House Overview (March 12, 2026): Kentucky - New York

2026-03-12T18:28:00+00:00

Kentucky. Primary May 19.
4th District (Cincinnati suburbs and northern Kentucky border area) Thomas Massie, R, re-elected unopposed. Trump 67%. Trump is determined to oust Massie in the GOP primary and is supporting former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein. Trump rallied with Gallrein in the district on Wednesday and his super PAC is spending heavily against Massie, who frustrated the president by forcing the release of the Epstein Files. Massie is a capable fundraiser and is hitting Gallrein back — this race will be a test of Trump’s powers within the GOP. Solid Republican.

6th District (Greater Lexington area) Open;…

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House Overview (March 12, 2026): North Carolina - Wisconsin

2026-03-12T18:27:00+00:00

North Carolina.
1st District (Inland northeastern North Carolina) Don Davis, D. Trump 55%. It’s a rematch between Davis and retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout, who lost narrowly to the congressman in 2024. Buckhout beat out Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck and state Rep. Bobby Hanig in a primary that turned on geography. Now the former acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Cyber Policy will get another shot at Davis, with the additional advantage of new congressional lines that make the 1st District more favorable to Republicans. But Democrats are eager to litigate the same attacks they used against Buckhout…
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Senate Report Shorts (March 12, 2026)

2026-03-12T18:26:00+00:00

Arkansas Senate. Farmer Hallie Shoffner won the Democratic primary with 78 percent last week and will face GOP Sen. Tom Cotton (82 percent in the GOP primary). Lightning might need to strike three times for Shoffner to win, but Democrats have a credible candidate in place if that happens. Solid Republican.

Mississippi Senate. District Attorney Scott Colom won the Democratic primary on Tuesday with 73 percent and will take on GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (81 percent in her primary) in the general election. Colom is a long-shot, but some Democratic strategists talk about Mississippi as a cheaper takeover opportunity compared…
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2026 House Ratings (March 12, 2026)

2026-03-12T18:25:00+00:00

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Oklahoma Senate: Mullin Appointment Could Create Ripple Effect

2026-03-05T21:04:00+00:00

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

President Donald Trump’s nomination of GOP Sen. Markwayne Mullin to be the next Secretary of Homeland Security is big news for the president’s cabinet, but it doesn’t likely alter the fight for Oklahoma’s Senate seat — or the majority — all that much.

Unlike the situation in Montana after GOP Sen. Steve Daines dropped out of the race, Oklahoma is likely to be more routine. According to state law, GOP Gov. Kevin Stitt will appoint a replacement, who can serve until the November election but must swear an oath that they will not seek the seat themself.

Because the vacancy will occur in the same year that the seat was already scheduled to appear on the ballot, there will not be a separate special election to fill the seat. According to Oklahoma law, the winner of the regularly scheduled race in the fall will instead take office immediately and fill out the remaining two months of the term, rather than waiting until January to be sworn in with the other senators elected in November.

The candidate filing deadline remains on April 3, with a June 16 primary and a potential August 25 runoff, if no candidate receives a majority of the vote.

Mullin’s appointment and likely confirmation could create a ripple effect if one or more of the five Republican members of the House delegation run in the regular election. Then there would presumably be a scramble for any open House seats left behind.

It’s unlikely that a House member will be appointed by Stitt. That would leave Speaker Mike Johnson without a vote on the Hill until that vacancy is filled with a special election. And given law barring the appointee from running in November, a House member is unlikely to give up their seat if they can’t run for the full term.

Oklahoma is firmly a Republican state. Sooner State voters haven't elected a Democrat to the Senate since David Boren won a third term in 1990. It’s been more than 50 years since Oklahoma voted for a Democrat for president and Trump finished ahead of Kamala Harris by 34 points in 2024. And Republicans have a 28-point Baseline advantage. Inside Elections continues to rate the race as Solid Republican.

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Montana Senate: Daines’ Drop Inserts Uncertainty

2026-03-05T14:11:00+00:00
By Jacob Rubashkin
Montana Sen. Steve Daines ended his re-election bid just minutes before the filing deadline Wednesday in a move coordinated with US Attorney Kurt Alme, who filed at the same time and effectively clinched the GOP nomination without any other hopefuls having the opportunity to declare for the surprise open seat.

Daines, who served two terms in the Senate and most recently led the National Republican Senatorial Committee during the 2024 cycle, had been a heavy favorite for re-election. But his surprise retirement and the unexpected elevation of Alme, a first-time candidate who also served as US Attorney for Montana during President Donald Trump’s first term, introduces some uncertainty to this otherwise sleepy race. We’re moving our rating from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.

Democratic fortunes in Montana have declined in recent years. Daines won a hotly contested second term over Gov. Steve Bullock in 2020 by 10 points. In 2024, Sen. Jon Tester lost re-election to Navy SEAL veteran Tim Sheehy, 53-46 percent; he was the last Democrat serving in statewide office in Big Sky Country.

This cycle, however, Tester and some other Democrats are hoping to improve their fortunes by backing an independent candidate in the Senate race, former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar. The former Green Beret and Rhodes Scholar is looking to run in the mold of union leader Dan Osborn, whose independent bid for Senate in Nebraska in 2024 came up just 7 points short in the ruby red state.

But for Bodnar to have a clean shot against Alme in the general election, he’ll need to convince the eventual winner of the Democratic primary to drop their candidacy. That may be easier said than done. Former state Rep. Reilly Neil, the most prominent in a field of largely unheralded Democratic hopefuls, has been highly critical of Bodnar and his independent bid. The other Democratic candidates are Air Force veteran Alani Bankhead, Navy veteran Mike Hummert, and tribal preservation officer Michael Black Wolf; none have raised more than $20,000, while Neill raised $147,000 through the end of 2025.

If the general election ends up a three-person race, that likely ensures a victory for Alme, given that Bodnar is likely to split votes with the Democratic nominee. Two recent polls found Daines leading a three-way race by more than 20 points.

But if Bodnar and his allies are successful in boxing out the eventual Democratic nominee, the independent may have an opportunity to make the race competitive. His profile could lend itself to national fundraising, and the optics of Daines engineering a coronation for Alme could backfire among Montanans, especially after 1st District Rep. Ryan Zinke executed a similar maneuver late last week.

The timing is an unforced error by Republicans and introduces a unique element into the race. Had Daines dropped out even a few days before the deadline, there likely wouldn’t have been the same potential backlash that Republicans could now experience.

Montana is not a critical part of the path back to the Democratic majority, which still runs through North Carolina, Maine, Alaska and Ohio. Nor has it joined the ranks of Texas and Iowa in the second tier of opportunities for the party. But a flurry of filing deadline activity has created an opening for Democrats in a year where the political winds appear to be blowing in their direction.

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2026 Senate Ratings (March 5, 2026)

2026-03-05T14:10:00+00:00

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Texas, North Carolina Kick off 2026 Primaries

2026-03-04T15:10:00+00:00

By Jacob Rubashkin and Nathan L. Gonzales

Voters in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas officially kicked off the 2026 election cycle with a large and exciting slate of important primaries. The matchup is officially set in one of the marquee Senate races in the country (North Carolina) and a vulnerable incumbent is still alive in another (Texas). And there’s some clarity in what the next Congress could look like as some Texas Republicans won critical primaries in solidly GOP seats and parties got closer to choosing nominees in battleground races.

North Carolina
Senate. Open; Thom Tillis, R, not seeking re-election. Trump 51%. Amidst all of the chatter about the Texas Senate race on the outskirts of the fight for the majority, the nominees are officially set in a race at the core of the battleground. Former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley will face former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper in the open-seat race.

The race is currently rated as a Toss-up, but it’s a must-win for Democrats if they are going to gain the four seats necessary for a majority. If Democrats don’t win the Tar Heel State, they’ll need to win three of four more Republican states: Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas. Donald Trump finished ahead of Kamala Harris by 3 points in 2024, but it looks like Democrats have a slight advantage in an open seat in a swing state with a popular former statewide officeholder in a national political environment that favors Democrats. If Republicans hold North Carolina in November, it will be a very long night for Democrats.

1st District (Inland northeastern North Carolina) Don Davis, D. Trump 55%. It’s a rematch between Davis and retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout, who lost narrowly to the congressman in 2024. Buckhout (40 percent) beat out Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck (35 percent) and state Rep. Bobby Hanig (16 percent) in a primary that turned on geography. Now the former acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Cyber Policy will get another shot at Davis, with the additional advantage of new congressional lines that make the 1st District more favorable to Republicans. But Democrats are eager to litigate the same attacks they used against Buckhout in the 2024 race in a more favorable political environment. Tilt Republican.

4th District (Durham and Chapel Hill areas) Valerie Foushee, D, re-elected 72%. Harris 72%. Foushee declared victory in the Democratic primary that has not been officially called by the AP. She’s approximately 1,200 votes ahead of Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam, but the race is within the 1 point threshold for a recount request. The race saw an influx of outside money in the final weeks, with progressive groups supporting Allam while pro-AI and pro-Israel donors backed Foushee. This primary is a potential warning sign for other Democratic incumbents around the country. Solid Democratic.

11th District (Western North Carolina) Chuck Edwards, R, re-elected 57%. Trump 54%. Edwards will face farmer Jamie Ager in the fall in a race Democrats are hoping to put on the map. Edwards still has some base problems, as seen by his relatively weak 70-30 percent win in the GOP primary over an unheralded opponent, but he won the nomination by a similar margin in 2024 before cruising in the general election that year. Ager will be his strongest opponent yet, and the region has shifted somewhat toward Democrats. Solid Republican.

Texas
Senate. John Cornyn (R), elected 2002 (55%), 2008 (65%), 2014 (62%), and 2020 (55%). Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton are headed to a May 26 runoff. Houston-area Rep. Wesley Hunt finished a distant third. The senator over-performed pre-election polling by a few points and may end up finishing slightly ahead of Paxton. That understates the challenge of the long-time incumbent growing his support from 42 percent to a majority in the runoff, but a first-place finish could be enough to convince President Donald Trump to endorse him. Cornyn is still very much in the race, but is probably an underdog.

Democrats nominated state Rep. James Talarico (53 percent) over Rep. Jasmine Crockett (46 percent) without a runoff, allowing Democrats to get a head start on the general election. National Democrats are not eager to fight another war in Texas, where they’ve come up short in multiple expensive contests, but they will probably take a look based on Talarico’s nomination and the GOP fight. Likely Republican.

Governor. Greg Abbott (R), elected 2014 (59%), 2018 (56%), 2022 (55%). Abbott had no trouble securing a historic fourth nomination for governor. Democrats nominated state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, an Austin state legislator, attorney, and the daughter of longtime state party chairman Gilberto Hinojosa. She won the Democratic primary with 59 percent over former Rep. Chris Bell, but will be a heavy underdog in the general election. Abbott stockpiled $100 million in campaign cash through the end of last year and has never won by less than double digits. Solid Republican.

2nd District. Dan Crenshaw (R). Trump 61%. State Rep. Steve Toth defeated Crenshaw in the GOP primary, in a race where the margin (15 points) was more of a surprise than the ultimate outcome. Toth was endorsed by Sen. Ted Cruz and the House Freedom Caucus while Crenshaw failed to earn President Trump’s support. But the result was also about redistricting. Even though Republicans drew the new map, the new lines included Toth’s state legislative district and removed some of Crenshaw’s Harris County base. Toth should win in November. Solid Republican.

8th District (North and northwestern exurbs of Houston) Morgan Luttrell, R, not seeking re-election. Trump 63%. Jessica Steinmann, a former staffer in the first Trump administration and Sen. Ted Cruz’s office, won the GOP race with 68 percent. She had support from Cruz, Abbott and got a late endorsement from Trump. Solid Republican.

9th District (Houston suburbs) Open; Al Green, D, running in the 18th District. Trump 59%. Former Harris County judge candidate Alex Mealer (36 percent) and state Rep. Briscoe Cain (31 percent) are headed for runoff in the GOP primary. Mealer got a late endorsement from Trump while Cain had support from Abbott in this suburban Houston seat. Former Texas Rep. Steve Stockman, who was convicted in 2018 of defrauding charitable donors and misusing campaign money before Trump commuted his prison sentence in 2020, was a distant third with 17 percent. Environmental advocate Leticia Gutierrez won the Democratic primary with 54 percent. Astronaut Terry Virts, who dropped down from the Senate race, placed third with 15 percent. Even though Trump won the district handily in 2024, Beto O’Rourke carried the seat by 2 points in the 2018 Senate race, fueling some optimism among Democrats that they could win if 2026 ends up being a great Democratic year. Solid Republican.

10th District. Michael McCaul, R, not seeking re-election. Trump 58%. Attorney Chris Gober, who counts among his former clients billionaire Elon Musk, narrowly avoided a runoff for the GOP nomination, finishing with 51 percent and well ahead of second-place candidate Ben Bius. Gober had every major endorsement including Trump, Speaker Mike Johnson, Abbott, Cruz and the Club for Growth. This is a mostly rural district stretching from Austin to outside Houston. Solid Republican.

15th District (McAllen in the Rio Grande Valley to the outer San Antonio metro area) Monica De La Cruz, R. Trump 58%. Tejano music star Bobby Pulido won the Democratic nomination, well ahead of emergency room physician Ada Cuellar. That sets up a competitive race against De La Cruz in a seat Republicans drew to elect a Republican, but where Democrats believe they have a chance by winning back Hispanic voters in South Texas. Likely Republican.

18th District (Parts of central and northern Houston) Christian Menefee, D/Al Green, D. Haris 69%. It looks like the congressmen are headed for the May runoff in a race that hasn’t officially been called by the AP. Menefee was just elected in a special election in the old 18th District while Green has represented the 9th District for two decades. Green represents approximately two-thirds of the newly-drawn seat while Menefee represents about a quarter of it. But Menefee is coming off of the competitive special primary election, so he is fresh in voters’ minds. An incumbent is going to lose, but the unique circumstances mean it won’t fit neatly into any anti-incumbent narrative. Solid Democratic.

19th District (West Texas) Open; Jodey Arrington, R, not seeking re-election. Trump 75%. Lubbock businessman Tom Sell is advancing to the May GOP runoff but his opponent is not yet known. Sell received 40 percent and had the backing of billionaire Texas Tech University booster Cody Campbell. Meanwhile, it’s a close race for the second spot. Abraham Enriquez, the head of Bienvenido US who had Abbott’s support, is at 18.8 percent, while roofing CEO “Fat Matt” Smith is at 18.5 percent. Whoever eventually wins the GOP nomination will be a member of Congress. Solid Republican.

21st District. Open; Chip Roy, R, running for Texas attorney general. Trump 60%. Former Texas Ranger/New York Yankee’s first baseman Mark Teixeira won the GOP primary with 61 percent. He was endorsed by Trump, Abbott, Johnson and the Club for Growth and spent at least $2.5 million of his own money. Trey Trainor gave up his chairmanship of the Federal Election Commission to finish third with 9 percent. The Republican-friendly district stretches west from the bustling Austin-San Antonio corridor into the rural Hill Country. Solid Republican.

22nd District. Open; Troy Nehls, R, not seeking re-election. Trump 58%. Unsurprisingly, former Fort Bend County constable Trever Nehls won the GOP nomination and is the heavy favorite to win the general election in this suburban Houston district. Nehls is the identical twin brother of outgoing GOP Rep. Troy Nehls and had President Trump’s endorsement. Solid Republican.

23rd District (San Antonio suburbs to El Paso suburbs) Tony Gonzales, R. Trump 57%. After an extremely close runoff in 2024, it looks like Gonzales and gun rights activist Brandon Herrera are headed for a runoff rematch this May. But this time there’s an extra level of drama after allegations that Gonzales had an affair with an aide, who ended up committing suicide by lighting herself on fire. Some Republicans on the Hill have called for Gonzales to resign or drop out of the race, while others had hoped primary voters would finish off the congressman. But he still has a chance to win and this issue isn’t going away for Republicans anytime soon. It’s not clear whether attorney Katy Padilla Stout will win the Democratic nomination without a runoff, but whoever is the nominee will suddenly get a lot of attention because Republicans will have a flawed nominee. Solid Republican, for now.

28th District (Laredo and eastern San Antonio suburbs) Henry Cuellar, D. Trump 55%. Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina easily won the GOP primary with 74 percent, giving Republicans their top recruit in the race. He’ll face Cuellar, who won his Democratic primary with an underwhelming 58 percent on Tuesday. But President Trump complicated the race last year when he pardoned Cuellar, who was under indictment on corruption charges. Trump clearly thought Cuellar would respond by switching parties or doing something that would benefit Republicans, but that didn’t happen. Republicans are undeterred by that drama because they know the ethics charges weren’t enough to defeat him in the past and they are excited about Tijerina, a former Democrat. This is one of the most competitive races in the country. Tilt Democratic.

29th District (North Houston) Sylvia Garcia, D. Harris 60%. Garcia won renomination with 59 percent in a Democratic primary that was complicated by redistricting. While the Houston district has a Hispanic majority, the Black population almost doubled. Former state Rep. Jarvis Johnson finished second with 35 percent. Solid Democratic.

30th District (Southern Dallas) Open; Jasmine Crockett, D, ran for Senate. Harris 73%. Pastor Frederick Haynes III won the Democratic primary with 72 percent in the race to succeed Crockett. It’s one of the few remaining Democratic seats in Texas after the Republicans’ redraw. Solid Democratic.

32nd District (Dallas Suburbs and east Texas) Open; Julie Johnson, D, not running in this district. Trump 58%. Air Force veteran Jace Yarbrough finished well ahead of the crowded field with 49 percent, but the race might still go to a runoff. Yarbrough had endorsements from Trump, Abbott, Speaker Johnson and the Freedom Caucus. Pastor and wealthy former presidential candidate Ryan Binkley is second with 22 percent. Solid Republican.

33rd District (Downtown Dallas) Julie Johnson, D, elected 2024 in a different district. Harris 65%. Former Rep. Collin Allred leads Rep. Johnson 45-34 percent. There was some confusion and controversy surrounding voting and counting votes in Dallas County, but the race is going to a May runoff. Allred spent most of last year running for the Senate but dropped out of that race (and into this race) when Crockett announced her run for the Senate. The runoff will not be friendly but ultimately, the seat will stay in Democratic hands in November. Solid Democratic.

34th District (Eastern Rio Grande Valley) Vicente Gonzalez, D. Trump 55%. Army veteran and former federal prosecutor Eric Flores defeated former Rep. Mayra Flores 57-24 percent in the GOP primary. Even though Mayra Flores is a former member who was once highlighted by the national party, the GOP establishment is ready to turn the page after her second loss in 2024. Eric Flores looks poised to take on Gonzalez in one of the most competitive House races in the country. Trump finished ahead of Harris by 10 points, but it looks like Republicans’ hold on Hispanic voters in South Texas has slipped over the last year. Toss-up.

35th District (San Antonio suburbs) Open; Greg Casar, D, running in 37th District. Trump 55%. State Rep. John Lujan (33 percent) and Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz (27 percent) are headed to the May GOP runoff. Lujan was supported by Abbott while De La Cruz, who is the brother of Congresswoman Monica De La Cruz, got a late endorsement from Trump. Republicans redrew the district to elect a Republican but Democrats haven’t thrown in the towel and think the district’s large Hispanic population gives them an opportunity. Family therapist Maureen Galindo (29 percent) and police officer Johnny Garcia (27 percent) look to be headed to the May runoff. Likely Republican.

38th District (Houston Suburbs) Open; Wesley Hunt, R, running for Senate. Trump 60%. Mortgage broker John Bonck is well ahead of the rest of the GOP field with 47 percent, but that’s not enough to avoid a runoff. West Houston Airport president Shelly DeZevallos is a distant second with 19 percent. The Club for Growth spent $2.8 million for Bonck in the initial race. Solid Republican.

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Podcast Episode 66: The Land of Illinois Primaries w/ Shia Kapos of Politico

2026-02-27T19:05:00+00:00

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Shia Kapos of Politico's Illinois Playbook dive deep into the upcoming Illinois primaries including the Democratic race to succeed Sen. Dick Durbin and a handful of crowded and competitive House primaries, where as little as 20 percent of the vote could be enough to effectively become a Member of Congress. Shia and Jacob also reveal their latest book finds and Nathan has to show off his Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks gear.

Listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Pocket Casts here.

The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential and gubernatorial races in a nonpartisan, data-driven, and accessible way. With a combination of reporting and data, Inside Elections brings valuable context to complex races. Go to InsideElections.com to subscribe to the bi-weekly newsletter through individual subscriptions and group packages that are tailored for association and corporate PACs.

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