President Donald Trump’s nomination of GOP Sen. Markwayne Mullin to be the next Secretary of Homeland Security is big news for the president’s cabinet, but it doesn’t likely alter the fight for Oklahoma’s Senate seat — or the majority — all that much. 

Unlike the situation in Montana after GOP Sen. Steve Daines dropped out of the race, Oklahoma is likely to be more routine. According to state law, GOP Gov. Kevin Stitt will appoint a replacement, who can serve until the November election but must swear an oath that they will not seek the seat themself. 

Because the vacancy will occur in the same year that the seat was already scheduled to appear on the ballot, there will not be a separate special election to fill the seat. According to Oklahoma law, the winner of the regularly scheduled race in the fall will instead take office immediately and fill out the remaining two months of the term, rather than waiting until January to be sworn in with the other senators elected in November.

The candidate filing deadline remains on April 3, with a June 16 primary and a potential August 25 runoff, if no candidate receives a majority of the vote. 

Mullin’s appointment and likely confirmation could create a ripple effect if one or more of the five Republican members of the House delegation run in the regular election. Then there would presumably be a scramble for any open House seats left behind. 

It’s unlikely that a House member will be appointed by Stitt. That would leave Speaker Mike Johnson without a vote on the Hill until that vacancy is filled with a special election. And given law barring the appointee from running in November, a House member is unlikely to give up their seat if they can’t run for the full term. 

Oklahoma is firmly a Republican state. Sooner State voters haven't elected a Democrat to the Senate since David Boren won a third term in 1990. It’s been more than 50 years since Oklahoma voted for a Democrat for president and Trump finished ahead of Kamala Harris by 34 points in 2024. And Republicans have a 28-point Baseline advantage. Inside Elections continues to rate the race as Solid Republican. 

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Montana Sen. Steve Daines ended his re-election bid just minutes before the filing deadline Wednesday in a move coordinated with US Attorney Kurt Alme, who filed at the same time and effectively clinched the GOP nomination without any other hopefuls having the opportunity to declare for the surprise open seat.

Daines, who served two terms in the Senate and most recently led the National Republican Senatorial Committee during the 2024 cycle, had been a heavy favorite for re-election. But his surprise retirement and the unexpected elevation of Alme, a first-time candidate who also served as US Attorney for Montana during President Donald Trump’s first term, introduces some uncertainty to this otherwise sleepy race. We’re moving our rating from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.

Democratic fortunes in Montana have declined in recent years. Daines won a hotly contested second term over Gov. Steve Bullock in 2020 by 10 points. In 2024, Sen. Jon Tester lost re-election to Navy SEAL veteran Tim Sheehy, 53-46 percent; he was the last Democrat serving in statewide office in Big Sky Country. 

This cycle, however, Tester and some other Democrats are hoping to improve their fortunes by backing an independent candidate in the Senate race, former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar. The former Green Beret and Rhodes Scholar is looking to run in the mold of union leader Dan Osborn, whose independent bid for Senate in Nebraska in 2024 came up just 7 points short in the ruby red state.

But for Bodnar to have a clean shot against Alme in the general election, he’ll need to convince the eventual winner of the Democratic primary to drop their candidacy. That may be easier said than done. Former state Rep. Reilly Neil, the most prominent in a field of largely unheralded Democratic hopefuls, has been highly critical of Bodnar and his independent bid. The other Democratic candidates are Air Force veteran Alani Bankhead, Navy veteran Mike Hummert, and tribal preservation officer Michael Black Wolf; none have raised more than $20,000, while Neill raised $147,000 through the end of 2025.

If the general election ends up a three-person race, that likely ensures a victory for Alme, given that Bodnar is likely to split votes with the Democratic nominee. Two recent polls found Daines leading a three-way race by more than 20 points. 

But if Bodnar and his allies are successful in boxing out the eventual Democratic nominee, the independent may have an opportunity to make the race competitive. His profile could lend itself to national fundraising, and the optics of Daines engineering a coronation for Alme could backfire among Montanans, especially after 1st District Rep. Ryan Zinke executed a similar maneuver late last week.

The timing is an unforced error by Republicans and introduces a unique element into the race. Had Daines dropped out even a few days before the deadline, there likely wouldn’t have been the same potential backlash that Republicans could now experience.

Montana is not a critical part of the path back to the Democratic majority, which still runs through North Carolina, Maine, Alaska and Ohio. Nor has it joined the ranks of Texas and Iowa in the second tier of opportunities for the party. But a flurry of filing deadline activity has created an opening for Democrats in a year where the political winds appear to be blowing in their direction. 

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Voters in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas officially kicked off the 2026 election cycle with a large and exciting slate of important primaries. The matchup is officially set in one of the marquee Senate races in the country (North Carolina) and a vulnerable incumbent is still alive in another (Texas). And there’s some clarity in what the next Congress could look like as some Texas Republicans won critical primaries in solidly GOP seats and parties got closer to choosing nominees in battleground races.

North Carolina
Senate. Open; Thom Tillis, R, not seeking re-election. Trump 51%. Amidst all of the chatter about the Texas Senate race on the outskirts of the fight for the majority, the nominees are officially set in a race at the core of the battleground. Former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley will face former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper in the open-seat race.

The race is currently rated as a Toss-up, but it’s a must-win for Democrats if they are going to gain the four seats necessary for a majority. If Democrats don’t win the Tar Heel State, they’ll need to win three of four more Republican states: Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas. Donald Trump finished ahead of Kamala Harris by 3 points in 2024, but it looks like Democrats have a slight advantage in an open seat in a swing state with a popular former statewide officeholder in a national political environment that favors Democrats. If Republicans hold North Carolina in November, it will be a very long night for Democrats.

1st District (Inland northeastern North Carolina) Don Davis, D. Trump 55%. It’s a rematch between Davis and retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout, who lost narrowly to the congressman in 2024. Buckhout (40 percent) beat out Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck (35 percent) and state Rep. Bobby Hanig (16 percent) in a primary that turned on geography. Now the former acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Cyber Policy will get another shot at Davis, with the additional advantage of new congressional lines that make the 1st District more favorable to Republicans. But Democrats are eager to litigate the same attacks they used against Buckhout in the 2024 race in a more favorable political environment. Tilt Republican.

4th District (Durham and Chapel Hill areas) Valerie Foushee, D, re-elected 72%. Harris 72%. Foushee declared victory in the Democratic primary that has not been officially called by the AP. She’s approximately 1,200 votes ahead of Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam, but the race is within the 1 point threshold for a recount request. The race saw an influx of outside money in the final weeks, with progressive groups supporting Allam while pro-AI and pro-Israel donors backed Foushee. This primary is a potential warning sign for other Democratic incumbents around the country. Solid Democratic.

11th District (Western North Carolina) Chuck Edwards, R, re-elected 57%. Trump 54%. Edwards will face farmer Jamie Ager in the fall in a race Democrats are hoping to put on the map. Edwards still has some base problems, as seen by his relatively weak 70-30 percent win in the GOP primary over an unheralded opponent, but he won the nomination by a similar margin in 2024 before cruising in the general election that year. Ager will be his strongest opponent yet, and the region has shifted somewhat toward Democrats. Solid Republican.

Texas
Senate. John Cornyn (R), elected 2002 (55%), 2008 (65%), 2014 (62%), and 2020 (55%). Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton are headed to a May 26 runoff. Houston-area Rep. Wesley Hunt finished a distant third. The senator over-performed pre-election polling by a few points and may end up finishing slightly ahead of Paxton. That understates the challenge of the long-time incumbent growing his support from 42 percent to a majority in the runoff, but a first-place finish could be enough to convince President Donald Trump to endorse him. Cornyn is still very much in the race, but is probably an underdog. 

Democrats nominated state Rep. James Talarico (53 percent) over Rep. Jasmine Crockett (46 percent) without a runoff, allowing Democrats to get a head start on the general election. National Democrats are not eager to fight another war in Texas, where they’ve come up short in multiple expensive contests, but they will probably take a look based on Talarico’s nomination and the GOP fight. Likely Republican.

Governor. Greg Abbott (R), elected 2014 (59%), 2018 (56%), 2022 (55%). Abbott had no trouble securing a historic fourth nomination for governor. Democrats nominated state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, an Austin state legislator, attorney, and the daughter of longtime state party chairman Gilberto Hinojosa. She won the Democratic primary with 59 percent over former Rep. Chris Bell, but will be a heavy underdog in the general election. Abbott stockpiled $100 million in campaign cash through the end of last year and has never won by less than double digits. Solid Republican.

2nd District. Dan Crenshaw (R). Trump 61%. State Rep. Steve Toth defeated Crenshaw in the GOP primary, in a race where the margin (15 points) was more of a surprise than the ultimate outcome. Toth was endorsed by Sen. Ted Cruz and the House Freedom Caucus while Crenshaw failed to earn President Trump’s support. But the result was also about redistricting. Even though Republicans drew the new map, the new lines included Toth’s state legislative district and removed some of Crenshaw’s Harris County base. Toth should win in November. Solid Republican.

8th District (North and northwestern exurbs of Houston) Morgan Luttrell, R, not seeking re-election. Trump 63%. Jessica Steinmann, a former staffer in the first Trump administration and Sen. Ted Cruz’s office, won the GOP race with 68 percent. She had support from Cruz, Abbott and got a late endorsement from Trump. Solid Republican.

9th District (Houston suburbs) Open; Al Green, D, running in the 18th District. Trump 59%. Former Harris County judge candidate Alex Mealer (36 percent) and state Rep. Briscoe Cain (31 percent) are headed for runoff in the GOP primary. Mealer got a late endorsement from Trump while Cain had support from Abbott in this suburban Houston seat. Former Texas Rep. Steve Stockman, who was convicted in 2018 of defrauding charitable donors and misusing campaign money before Trump commuted his prison sentence in 2020, was a distant third with 17 percent. Environmental advocate Leticia Gutierrez won the Democratic primary with 54 percent. Astronaut Terry Virts, who dropped down from the Senate race, placed third with 15 percent. Even though Trump won the district handily in 2024, Beto O’Rourke carried the seat by 2 points in the 2018 Senate race, fueling some optimism among Democrats that they could win if 2026 ends up being a great Democratic year. Solid Republican.

10th District. Michael McCaul, R, not seeking re-election. Trump 58%. Attorney Chris Gober, who counts among his former clients billionaire Elon Musk, narrowly avoided a runoff for the GOP nomination, finishing with 51 percent and well ahead of second-place candidate Ben Bius. Gober had every major endorsement including Trump, Speaker Mike Johnson, Abbott, Cruz and the Club for Growth. This is a mostly rural district stretching from Austin to outside Houston. Solid Republican. 

15th District (McAllen in the Rio Grande Valley to the outer San Antonio metro area) Monica De La Cruz, R. Trump 58%. Tejano music star Bobby Pulido won the Democratic nomination, well ahead of emergency room physician Ada Cuellar. That sets up a competitive race against De La Cruz in a seat Republicans drew to elect a Republican, but where Democrats believe they have a chance by winning back Hispanic voters in South Texas. Likely Republican.

18th District (Parts of central and northern Houston) Christian Menefee, D/Al Green, D. Haris 69%. It looks like the congressmen are headed for the May runoff in a race that hasn’t officially been called by the AP. Menefee was just elected in a special election in the old 18th District while Green has represented the 9th District for two decades. Green represents approximately two-thirds of the newly-drawn seat while Menefee represents about a quarter of it. But Menefee is coming off of the competitive special primary election, so he is fresh in voters’ minds. An incumbent is going to lose, but the unique circumstances mean it won’t fit neatly into any anti-incumbent narrative. Solid Democratic.

19th District (West Texas) Open; Jodey Arrington, R, not seeking re-election. Trump 75%. Lubbock businessman Tom Sell is advancing to the May GOP runoff but his opponent is not yet known. Sell received 40 percent and had the backing of billionaire Texas Tech University booster Cody Campbell. Meanwhile, it’s a close race for the second spot. Abraham Enriquez, the head of Bienvenido US who had Abbott’s support, is at 18.8 percent, while roofing CEO “Fat Matt” Smith is at 18.5 percent. Whoever eventually wins the GOP nomination will be a member of Congress. Solid Republican. 

21st District. Open; Chip Roy, R, running for Texas attorney general. Trump 60%. Former Texas Ranger/New York Yankee’s first baseman Mark Teixeira won the GOP primary with 61 percent. He was endorsed by Trump, Abbott, Johnson and the Club for Growth and spent at least $2.5 million of his own money. Trey Trainor gave up his chairmanship of the Federal Election Commission to finish third with 9 percent. The Republican-friendly district stretches west from the bustling Austin-San Antonio corridor into the rural Hill Country. Solid Republican.

22nd District. Open; Troy Nehls, R, not seeking re-election. Trump 58%. Unsurprisingly, former Fort Bend County constable Trever Nehls won the GOP nomination and is the heavy favorite to win the general election in this suburban Houston district. Nehls is the identical twin brother of outgoing GOP Rep. Troy Nehls and had President Trump’s endorsement. Solid Republican.

23rd District (San Antonio suburbs to El Paso suburbs) Tony Gonzales, R. Trump 57%. After an extremely close runoff in 2024, it looks like Gonzales and gun rights activist Brandon Herrera are headed for a runoff rematch this May. But this time there’s an extra level of drama after allegations that Gonzales had an affair with an aide, who ended up committing suicide by lighting herself on fire. Some Republicans on the Hill have called for Gonzales to resign or drop out of the race, while others had hoped primary voters would finish off the congressman. But he still has a chance to win and this issue isn’t going away for Republicans anytime soon. It’s not clear whether attorney Katy Padilla Stout will win the Democratic nomination without a runoff, but whoever is the nominee will suddenly get a lot of attention because Republicans will have a flawed nominee. Solid Republican, for now. 

28th District (Laredo and eastern San Antonio suburbs) Henry Cuellar, D. Trump 55%. Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina easily won the GOP primary with 74 percent, giving Republicans their top recruit in the race. He’ll face Cuellar, who won his Democratic primary with an underwhelming 58 percent on Tuesday. But President Trump complicated the race last year when he pardoned Cuellar, who was under indictment on corruption charges. Trump clearly thought Cuellar would respond by switching parties or doing something that would benefit Republicans, but that didn’t happen. Republicans are undeterred by that drama because they know the ethics charges weren’t enough to defeat him in the past and they are excited about Tijerina, a former Democrat. This is one of the most competitive races in the country. Tilt Democratic.

29th District (North Houston) Sylvia Garcia, D. Harris 60%. Garcia won renomination with 59 percent in a Democratic primary that was complicated by redistricting. While the Houston district has a Hispanic majority, the Black population almost doubled. Former state Rep. Jarvis Johnson finished second with 35 percent. Solid Democratic.

30th District (Southern Dallas) Open; Jasmine Crockett, D, ran for Senate. Harris 73%. Pastor Frederick Haynes III won the Democratic primary with 72 percent in the race to succeed Crockett. It’s one of the few remaining Democratic seats in Texas after the Republicans’ redraw. Solid Democratic. 

32nd District (Dallas Suburbs and east Texas) Open; Julie Johnson, D, not running in this district. Trump 58%. Air Force veteran Jace Yarbrough finished well ahead of the crowded field with 49 percent, but the race might still go to a runoff. Yarbrough had endorsements from Trump, Abbott, Speaker Johnson and the Freedom Caucus. Pastor and wealthy former presidential candidate Ryan Binkley is second with 22 percent. Solid Republican.

33rd District (Downtown Dallas) Julie Johnson, D, elected 2024 in a different district. Harris 65%. Former Rep. Collin Allred leads Rep. Johnson 45-34 percent. There was some confusion and controversy surrounding voting and counting votes in Dallas County, but the race is going to a May runoff. Allred spent most of last year running for the Senate but dropped out of that race (and into this race) when Crockett announced her run for the Senate. The runoff will not be friendly but ultimately, the seat will stay in Democratic hands in November. Solid Democratic. 

34th District (Eastern Rio Grande Valley) Vicente Gonzalez, D. Trump 55%. Army veteran and former federal prosecutor Eric Flores defeated former Rep. Mayra Flores 57-24 percent in the GOP primary. Even though Mayra Flores is a former member who was once highlighted by the national party, the GOP establishment is ready to turn the page after her second loss in 2024. Eric Flores looks poised to take on Gonzalez in one of the most competitive House races in the country. Trump finished ahead of Harris by 10 points, but it looks like Republicans’ hold on Hispanic voters in South Texas has slipped over the last year. Toss-up.

35th District (San Antonio suburbs) Open; Greg Casar, D, running in 37th District. Trump 55%. State Rep. John Lujan (33 percent) and Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz (27 percent) are headed to the May GOP runoff. Lujan was supported by Abbott while De La Cruz, who is the brother of Congresswoman Monica De La Cruz, got a late endorsement from Trump. Republicans redrew the district to elect a Republican but Democrats haven’t thrown in the towel and think the district’s large Hispanic population gives them an opportunity. Family therapist Maureen Galindo (29 percent) and police officer Johnny Garcia (27 percent) look to be headed to the May runoff. Likely Republican.

38th District (Houston Suburbs) Open; Wesley Hunt, R, running for Senate. Trump 60%. Mortgage broker John Bonck is well ahead of the rest of the GOP field with 47 percent, but that’s not enough to avoid a runoff. West Houston Airport president Shelly DeZevallos is a distant second with 19 percent. The Club for Growth spent $2.8 million for Bonck in the initial race. Solid Republican.

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BLOOMFIELD TOWNSHIP, MI — By the time the main event began, the packed high school gym was almost too hazy to see the fighters in the ring. But for the hundreds of men and handful of women at Brother Rice High School, the boxing at Boxing Night was a secondary attraction at best, after the chance to enjoy beer, the company of old friends, and more cigars than any public school has seen (or smelled) in several decades.

One attendee was there for all that, plus more: a chance at an improbable congressional victory.  As boxers from the University of Michigan whaled on fighters from nearby colleges, 32-year-old Robert Lulgjuraj spent the early February Friday night gladhanding his way through the crowd. His goal, to drum up support for an underdog bid for the GOP nomination in Michigan’s 10th District. 

Smoke-filled rooms: not just the stuff of campaign lore.

Lulgjuraj looked at home in a Brother Rice Warriors quarter zip as he mingled by trays of pasta salad and cold cuts. But the gym was far from home turf for the former Wayne and Macomb County assistant prosecutor, who faces another Brother Rice alumnus, Army paratrooper Mike Bouchard, in the August 4 primary. 

Brother Rice sits just outside the 10th District but its student body draws from across the region, and the school has produced its fair share of Southeast Michigan luminaries. Lulgjuraj and Bouchard overlapped at the Catholic school, even playing on the football team together. The school also counts among its products Bouchard’s father, longtime Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, and the man leaving the 10th District to run for governor, Rep. John James. 

At one point in the evening, former St. Louis Cardinals shortstop Andrew Sohn stopped by to ask Lulgjuraj how his campaign was going and wish him luck. 

Lulgjuraj may need it. Despite entering the race months later, Bouchard begins with a clear advantage thanks to his name and political connections.  

After 28 years as sheriff, eight years in the legislature, and statewide runs for Senate and governor, his father is among the best-known Republicans in the state. Sheriff Bouchard began organizing support for his son’s campaign months before he returned from his latest deployment, helping establish a super PAC and securing endorsements from former Gov. John Engler and former state Attorney General Bill Schuette. 

A recent poll from the Bouchard campaign found him leading the primary field, 37 percent to 8 percent, with 51 percent undecided. A third candidate, attorney Justin Kirk, clocked in at 3 percent but isn’t expected to be as much of a factor in the race.

Lulgjuraj’s allies dismiss the result as an artifact of name recognition, and argue that the upstart’s candidacy will activate new voters in the primary, especially in the district’s close-knit Albanian community. The 10th has the fifth-largest Albanian community of any district in the country, and the largest outside of New York City. It’s also home to the largest number of another Catholic minority, the Chaldeans, who comprise 3 percent of the district.

“If you ran an independent poll, Bouchard might even be up just from name ID alone,” said state Rep. Joe Aragona, who represents Macomb County in the state House and has endorsed Lulgjuraj. 

Aragona, who considered running for the 10th himself, also said he believed polling would underestimate Lulgjuraj because it wouldn’t account for lower propensity Albanian voters in the primary.

“With Rob on the ballot, none of them, whether they're center, center left, right-left, or even far right in their political nature,” he said, “none of them are going to forget to vote.”

Neither have they forgotten to donate. Lulgjuraj has raised more than $1 million since entering the race in July, largely from Albanian communities, and ended December with $765,000 in cash-on-hand, the most of any candidate in the race. 

Bouchard raised a respectable $550,000 in his first two months of the race, and an allied super PAC pulled in an additional $255,000 through the end of the year. But $200,000 that Bouchard raised is earmarked for the general election, leaving him with closer to $350,000 in money he can spend on the primary, compared to Lulgjuraj, who had more than $650,000 in primary cash to spend.

On a Thursday night in Warren, Bouchard stood up in front of a few dozen current and retired police officers at a Fraternal Order of Police lodge to introduce himself.

Soft-spoken and measured, and in a quarter-zip of his own, Bouchard spoke briefly about his support and respect for law enforcement, his time in the Army’s 82nd and 101st Airborne Divisions and experience in Iraq, and his belief in Trump’s foreign policy. He stressed that he was running to restore common sense to Washington, DC. “If a Democrat brings me a solution, I’ll work with them,” he told the crowd. 

Despite the setting, Bouchard avoided mentioning his father in his brief stump speech. Afterward, he told Inside Elections that he was running his own race. “I'm running on my experience and what I'm going to do for this district,” said the former paratrooper.

But the sheriff loomed large over the evening, as attendees came up to the younger Bouchard to tell him how much they admired his father and to gossip about when the 27-year incumbent might finally retire. One woman stopped on her way out to remark on how much the candidate resembled his namesake — and to offer to put up a Bouchard yard sign even though she wasn’t sure she lived in the district. After some geographical back and forth with the candidate, the newly minted supporter realized that not only did she live in the district, but so did her daughter and several extended family members. She left with signs for all of them.

As the event cleared out, the lodge’s vice president Pete Warack said he liked what he had heard from Bouchard, but wanted to see more of the candidate. “He said the right things, but saying the right things and doing them are different,” Warack told Inside Elections. He expressed hope that Bouchard would return to the lodge over the summer when temperatures would be warmer and more members would be present.

Swapping his policeman’s cap for a pundit’s hat, Warack made an additional point: the name ID advantage Bouchard brought to the race, he said, could be insurmountable in the primary. Outside, two attendees enjoying cigars agreed. One of them, who declined to share his name due to his sensitive position, said he was all in for Bouchard. He hadn’t heard of anyone else running.

Lulgjuraj has framed his bid around his blue collar upbringing and deep Macomb County roots, to the extent one ally told Inside Elections they anticipated a “nationalist” campaign — the nation being Macomb. Lulgjuraj, the son of a waitress and maintenance man who fled Communism, sees a compelling contrast between his story and that of Bouchard, who grew up in a well-off town outside the district in Oakland County. 

“Just because your father's a politician, that doesn't mean that you're ready to legislate, that you're ready to be a congressperson,” Lulgjuraj told Inside Elections, “and I thank the family for their service, but I am the best qualified academically, resume-wise, and my strong MAGA conservative values to represent this district well, and I'm from here.”

Bouchard bristled at the notion that he wasn’t suited to represent the 10th, which only includes a small piece of Oakland County. 

“I've lived in this district for years,” he told Inside Elections. “I go to church in the center of this district, I worked in the south of this district, my gym's in the north of this district, and I spend most of my summers on the east part of this district. I know this district extremely well, and I spend all my time here.”

State Rep. Ron Robinson, who represents a swing district in Macomb County, told Inside Elections he didn’t think Bouchard would be hamstrung by his upbringing. “Though he has come from Oakland County, he's been around,” said Robinson, “he's well versed in the needs and what's going on here in Macomb County.”

Still, Robinson opted to back Lulgjuraj in the primary. “I like his passion, and he's connecting with a lot of people,” he said, “and he pretty much is the American dream.”

Winning the primary won’t be the end of the story for either Bouchard or Lulgjuraj. Michigan’s 10th is a top Democratic target, and the party is sorting through its own primary between Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel, former prosecutor Christina Hines, and former Commerce Department attorney Eric Chung. 

After two cycles in which Democrats were saddled with former Macomb County Prosecutor Carl Marlinga as their nominee, the party is excited to compete for the open seat with a new candidate. Though Marlinga was universally known in the district, he struggled to fundraise, had personal baggage, and was largely ignored by outside groups in his two losses against James. 

Even as both potential GOP nominees stare down a competitive general election, neither feels pressure to put any distance between themselves and Trump, who finished ahead of Kamala Harris 52-46 percent in 2024 but whose popularity has sagged since taking office a year ago.

“I am going to be lockstep in line with the president's agenda and this administration's agenda,” Lulgjuraj told Inside Elections, “and that's exactly what the voters in this district want.”

“I think he's doing an incredible job,” concurred Bouchard, who couldn’t name any areas where he disagreed with Trump. “He's putting our country first, and I think we need more people who are willing to help him put this country first.”

Both candidates singled out crime and the cost of living as priorities, and are focusing their appeal on the “salt of the earth” voters of the district. Each claims a connection to the auto industry as well: Lulgjuraj’s grandfather worked the line at Chrysler, Bouchard’s at General Motors.

And both men relay deep appreciation for their Catholic faith and the education they received at Brother Rice. 

“I've developed a pretty strong faith and belief in God from a young age, and that's carried with me in everything that I've done,” Bouchard told Inside Elections. “I remember some pretty tough moments in Iraq, and it was pretty comforting to have the faith I have,” he said.

“I’m a faithful candidate," Lulgjuraj told Inside Elections, “and I really do believe that the reason why this country has been as successful as it was, it's rooted in virtue, rooted in character, rooted in Christian values.”

As he considered running for Congress last year, Lulgjuraj said, he turned to a higher power. “The first person I called was my priest,” he told Inside Elections. 

Did he receive his blessing? 

“Even better — he gave me $1,000. How’s that for a character reference?”

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The Texas primary feels bigger than ever. While the November elections are still eight months away, more than a dozen consequential primaries in the Lone Star State are rapidly approaching.

At the top of the ticket, a longtime Senate incumbent, Republican John Cornyn, is struggling to win renomination in a primary dominated by questions about President Donald Trump’s influence and the broader evolution of the GOP. Democrats are also grappling with an identity crisis in their own primary for Senate.

But farther down the ballot, the competition is just as intense. The Trump-backed redrawing of the state’s…

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Florida’s 20th District. Luther Campbell became the latest Democrat…

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The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential and gubernatorial races in a nonpartisan, data-driven, and accessible way. With a combination of reporting and data, Inside Elections brings valuable context to complex races. Go to InsideElections.com to subscribe to the bi-weekly newsletter through individual subscriptions and group packages that are tailored for association and corporate PACs.

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Fundraising is a critical part of winning reelection, but sometimes incumbents have political problems that money can’t fix. 

When voter sentiment is against you, outspending your opponent isn’t sufficient to survive an electoral wave. This is important context when analyzing campaign fundraising reports.

While there can be confusion over what constitutes a wave election, 2010 certainly qualifies. Republicans gained a net of 63 House seats in President Barack Obama’s first midterm election, with health care at the top of people’s minds. And 2006 fits the description as well, considering Democrats gained 31 House seats during George W. Bush’s second midterm when the president had lost much of his credibility after the war in Iraq and the administration's response to Hurricane Katrina.

Under adverse political conditions, smart members gird themselves for the storm by raising money and leveraging that financial advantage most incumbents enjoy. But sometimes it doesn’t matter. 

Of the combined 74 House incumbents who didn’t win reelection in 2006 and 2010, 84 percent of them (62 members) outspent their challenger and still lost. 

Southeast Pennsylvania offers one of the best examples of this dynamic, which can plague both parties. In 2006, Democrat Patrick Murphy knocked off GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, even though he spent only three-quarters of what the incumbent did ($2.4 million to $3.2 million) in a suburban Philadelphia seat. Four years later, Fitzpatrick toppled Murphy while spending less than half of his opponent’s outlays ($2.1 million to $4.3 million). 

2010

Murphy was one of 52 House Democrats to lose reelection in 2010 and one of 43 to outspend their challenger and still come up short. 

That tally is technically accurate but deceptively low. Successful Republican challengers, including Mississippi's Steve Palazzo, Ohio's Steve Chabot and Steve Stivers, South Dakota's Kristi Noem, and Texas' Quico Canseco outspent the Democratic incumbent by less than 10 percent. That’s close to spending parity, rather than a true contest where the challenger outspends an incumbent. 

On paper, Republican Allen B. West outspent Democrat Ron Klein by $1.2 million in Florida, but West spent much of his money raising more money rather than on voter contact. Three Republicans outspent Democratic incumbents by more legitimate and substantial margins: New Mexico's Steve Pearce, Ohio's Jim Renacci and Virginia's Scott Rigell, the last two being self-funders.

Eight GOP challengers spent less than a third of the money of the Democratic incumbent they defeated, including New York's Ann Marie Buerkle (25 percent) and Chris Gibson (31 percent), Illinois' Joe Walsh (25 percent), Minnesota's Chip Cravaack (28 percent), Idaho's Raúl Labrador (30 percent), Virginia's Morgan Griffith (31 percent) and Florida's Daniel Webster (32 percent).

Across all the House races with a losing Democratic officeholder, the Republican challenger spent 67 percent, on average, of what the incumbent spent. When voters want change and are determined to make a statement, the candidate with the most money doesn’t always win. 

2006

It was a similar dynamic in 2006, just with the party roles reversed. Of the 22 House Republicans who lost re-election, all but three of them outspent their Democratic challenger.

And there’s some nuance to those exceptions. Democrat Brad Ellsworth spent three times more than Indiana Rep. John Hostettler did, but the Republican was a notoriously terrible fundraiser. Pennsylvania Democrat Joe Sestak was at near spending parity with the Republican he ousted, Curt Weldon, with the challenger only narrowly ahead. Democrat Paul Hodes, though, outspent GOP Rep. Charlie Bass by a more substantial margin in New Hampshire.

Successful Democratic challengers who overcame massive spending deficiencies included Texas' Ciro Rodriguez (who spent 26 percent of the incumbent’s total), New Hampshire's Carol Shea-Porter (27 percent) and North Carolina's Heath Shuler (41 percent). Overall, successful Democratic challengers in 2006 spent 70 percent of what the GOP incumbents they defeated did.

While nonincumbents often need more money to raise their profiles and convince voters to fire their member of Congress, the financial bar is lower in so-called change elections. Challengers don’t have to have more or as much money as incumbents, just enough to be regarded as a viable alternative. 

2018

More recently, 2018 saw an electoral wave in the House, with Democrats gaining a net of 41 seats. But the campaign finance landscape was different from 2006 and 2010. Donald Trump’s election in 2016 ignited the Democratic donor base, culminating in a large proportion of successful Democratic challengers outspending GOP incumbents.

Of the 30 House Republicans who lost reelection in Trump’s first midterm election, just seven of them outspent their Democratic challenger. And in some of those races, the advantage was minimal. California’s David Valadao, Florida's Carlos Curbelo, Illinois' Peter Roskam and Virginia's Barbara Comstock had negligible spending advantages and still lost. More of a financial boost probably wouldn’t have helped anyway. For instance, Utah Rep. Mia Love outspent Democrat Ben McAdams by $2.5 million but was narrowly unseated. . 

Overall, successful Democratic challengers, on average, outspent the GOP incumbents they defeated.

2026

This year’s financial dynamic in House races might look closer to 2006 or 2010 than to 2018. 

Yes, there’s mounting evidence that a Democratic House majority is within reach due to historical midterm trends. Trump’s job approval rating stands at 41 percent, according to Nate Silver’s latest average. And Democrats have been consistently overperforming in races across the country over the past 10 months. 

But there are signs of fatigue among Democratic donors. Losing yet another race to Trump isn’t great for morale. 

Still, as history tells us, underfunded challengers can defeat incumbents under the right political conditions. And, maybe most importantly, Democrats don’t need an electoral wave to win the House majority. They don’t need to gain 63 seats, 41 seats or 31 seats or topple dozens of incumbents as we saw in previous cycles. 

They need a net gain of three seats.

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Ossoff’s rapid rise still grates on Georgia Republicans, who grouse about the “accidental senator.” But they take him far more seriously now than in 2020, when he won an upset victory over a former Fortune 500 CEO and incumbent senator.

At the start of the 2026 cycle, Republicans…

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But after Cartwright fell to local businessman Rob Bresnahan, a fresh face half his age, national and Pennsylvania Democrats turned their focus to other House races in the Keystone State and beyond. 

All that has changed in the past year, as the…

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California’s 13th District. The Republican field…

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The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential and gubernatorial races in a nonpartisan, data-driven, and accessible way. With a combination of reporting and data, Inside Elections brings valuable context to complex races. Go to InsideElections.com to subscribe to the bi-weekly newsletter through individual subscriptions and group packages that are tailored for association and corporate PACs.

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It’s been 20 years since one party flipped both the House and the Senate in the same cycle, but that’s exactly what Democrats are hoping to do in 2026. 

While Democrats can win the House majority by winning Democratic-leaning and toss-up areas, the party must also win Republican areas in order to capture the Senate. With a combination of candidate recruitment and a national political environment focused on affordability that has resulted in Democratic overperformance in elections over the last year, Democrats have a distinct but still difficult path.

Holding their own competitive…

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