Inside Elections

Inside Primary Night as Georgia Goes Into Overtime

2026-05-22T17:57:00+00:00

By Nicholas Demba

ATLANTA, GA — It was finally game night. The Battery, an upscale development in suburban Cobb County adjacent to Truist Park, filled up with cars that had braved Atlanta’s infamous rush hour traffic. But the main event wasn’t the Braves: it was the opening round of matchups to decide the political future of the Peach State.

Now one of the nation’s premier swing states, Georgia is set to host competitive general elections for both Senate and governor in November. On Tuesday night, “The ATL” watched returns come in as primary voters decided nominees in key races that have drawn both national attention and millions of dollars in spending.

The Battery is a fitting location for campaigns to gather to learn about their future. The Metro Atlanta suburbs have upended the political dynamics in the state over the past decade, driving Democrats into contention after years in the wilderness. Mitt Romney carried Cobb County with 55 percent of the vote in the 2012 presidential race. Four years later, Donald Trump became the first Republican presidential nominee to lose the county in four decades (the last Democrat to win it was favorite son Jimmy Carter). Since then, the area has only continued to rocket leftward, thanks to an increasingly diversifying electorate and anti-Trump suburbanites.

Across town, at the ballroom at the Hyatt Regency in downtown Atlanta, the clock showed the 7 p.m. poll closing time quickly approaching. Campaign staffers frantically gave instructions to volunteers wearing white “Keisha Lance Bottoms for Governor” t-shirts as they prepared for attendees to arrive.

Hotel bar employees set up drinks to be sold for $16 each. Michael Jackson’s “P.Y.T.” played in the background. Two employees set up an American flag on the stage. The media stood on press risers in the back of the ballroom, with broadcast reporters packed shoulder to shoulder, receiving updates from control rooms through their earpieces.

The atmosphere in the ballroom was less suspenseful than anticipatory. Bottoms, the former mayor of Atlanta, was the frontrunner to secure the Democratic nomination for governor. As the only person in the race with widespread name recognition, she had held a consistent advantage over her rivals, including former state Sen. Jason Esteves, former DeKalb County CEO Mike Thurmond, and former Republican Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan.

Bottoms’ home base of Fulton County delayed reporting its results until 11 p.m. after a precinct went into lockdown due to a nearby manhunt. But even without most of Atlanta, Bottoms’ lead over her opponents was large enough for the Associated Press to call the race in her favor at 10:30 p.m.

Even before the race was called, Marcella McCray and Tracy Edgar were already looking toward the general election. The two had spent their Election Day setting up decorations for the event. Edgar, who had phone banked for Bottoms, was optimistic.

“I feel very confident about November. I think people are tired of the old stuff that’s been going on with the other party,” Edgar said. “We’re tired, we’re hungry, some people have lost jobs, people can’t afford gas, everybody’s just tired.”

Edgar wasn’t just tired of 24 years of a Republican in the governor’s mansion. She was also fed up with the onslaught of ads on the other side of the aisle.

“It’s constant. If you can’t run a campaign on positive stuff, then you probably don’t need to be running,” she told Inside Elections.

The race to succeed Republican Gov. Brian Kemp has indeed grown particularly nasty on the GOP side. While Lt. Gov. Burt Jones quickly secured the backing of Trump and was the clear frontrunner over Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and state Attorney General Chris Carr, the campaign was shaken up when billionaire Rick Jackson entered the race in February.

The Republicans running statewide had plenty of disagreements — but not, it seems, on the best place to throw a party. Carr, Jackson, and Senate candidate Derek Dooley all held their watch parties at The Battery within walking distance of each other.

On most nights, Coors Banquet Bar is packed with Braves fans adorned with Matt Olson jerseys. Tonight, the uniform was campaign hats and “I Voted” stickers. Carr walked around greeting supporters. A podium in the corner of the room stood ready for him to speak later in the night.

Fruit platters and charcuterie boards were largely untouched. Of the venue’s many TV screens, only half were tuned to the election results (on Fox News, naturally). The others were following baseball games, including the Braves, who were en route to an 8-4 victory over the Marlins in Miami.

The scoreboard was less generous to Team Carr. At the moment, he trailed in fourth behind Jones, Jackson, and Raffensperger. Carr and Raffensperger had aligned themselves more closely with the establishment wing of the party; Jones and Jackson had signed on with Trump. It was clear which team was headed to the playoffs.

Deron Dowhower, a longtime friend of Carr, was frustrated with the way the race had played out.

“It’s par for the course. It’s just the way it’s done these days, unfortunately,” said Dowhower, who attended high school with Carr in the neighboring suburb of Brookhaven. “The best, the most fit to govern is not the one who wins these days. It’s the one who has the most money, the most eyeballs, the most either disinformation or misinformation.”

It wasn’t difficult to understand who Dowhower was talking about. You could even see him. Carr supporters only had to step out onto the bar’s patio to get a glimpse of the ritzy Omni Hotel towering above them, where billionaire Rick Jackson was holding his campaign’s election night watch party.

In a packed ballroom on the third floor of the Omni, Jackson’s guests could help themselves to crudités cups and popcorn. But even though the health care executive had spent over $80 million of his own money on his campaign to get there, he wasn’t going all out quite yet: a glass of wine at the cash bar ran $16.

Inside, the scene was lively as the Jackson campaign maintained a flow of high-profile supporters coming up to the podium, almost as a kind of opening act building up to the big finale. Among them were state House Speaker Pro Tempore Jan Jones and state Insurance Commissioner John King.

King previewed some of the talking points to be used against Bottoms in November regarding her tenure as mayor during Covid-19 and the Black Lives Matter protests.

“We’re ready to show the contrast,” King told Inside Elections. “I can’t wait to run a number of Atlanta police officers to show how they were treated when Keisha was mayor, and how she let the city burn, and now she wants to come back… and burn it again. Is that the strategy?”

After King spoke, the twin big screens flanking the stage lit up with Jackson’s signature campaign music video, “Win Big for Georgia.” While you could be forgiven for thinking the catchy country-pop song was performed by a big star, in reality the song and video, which recount Jackson’s journey from poverty to riches, were generated by AI. “From the hard road to the high road, I know what it takes. When the stakes are on the table, I don’t blink. I don’t break,” the speakers blasted as Jackson’s son Shane took the stage to introduce his father.

The man of the hour walked onto the stage as Strauss’s “Thus Spoke Zarathustra,” the opening fanfare to 2001: A Space Odyssey, blared behind him. In most states, a candidate in second place would not be giving a quasi-victory speech on election night. However, Georgia state law mandates that if no candidate receives a majority of the vote, then a runoff is held. Jackson finished six points behind Jones, but the two are headed to a June 16 runoff.

In his speech, Jackson repeated many of the same lines that had appeared on the campaign trail and in his ads, emphasizing his rise from poverty, his Christian faith, and his outsider status while taking jabs at Jones.

“When we win, President Trump will be a winner. I’ll be President Trump’s favorite governor,” Jackson said. “As governor, I’ll be like Trump, but with a Southern tone.” After he finished, Jackson descended the stage to gladhand supporters.

Just down the street was Dooley, the former University of Tennessee football coach now vying for the GOP Senate nomination. Tomorrow night, Park Bench Battery was set to host karaoke. But on Tuesday it was home to his election watch party.

On one side, a bar lined with drinks, brisket sliders, and chicken satay. On the other, a stage backed by a massive American flag. In the middle, TVs tuned to NBC and the latest episode of “America’s Got Talent” as results slowly crawled in across the bottom of the screen.

The GOP primary to face Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in November pitted Reps. Mike Collins and Buddy Carter against Dooley, the son of the late Georgia coaching legend Vince Dooley and 2002 Georgia congressional candidate Barbara Dooley.

At around 10:00 pm, the entire room’s attention shifted as guests rushed to the front door to greet a new arrival. It was not Dooley. It was Gov. Brian Kemp.

Holding the hand of First Lady Marty Kemp, he slowly advanced through the venue greeting attendees and taking photos. After circling back around, he took a second to autograph one of Dooley’s campaign signs.

Dooley had leaned heavily on Kemp’s support throughout his campaign. Kemp frequently accompanied him on the campaign trail, and Kemp’s super PAC ran ads on his behalf. Kemp left national Republicans miffed after he passed on a bid of his own last May, but his support had proven critical to helping Dooley make a runoff with Rep. Collins.

After an aide came up to test the microphone one final time, Kemp came up to the stage to introduce Dooley, who he called a longtime family friend.

At the podium, Dooley told the crowd that Carter, who represents Coastal Georgia, had called him to concede the race. Dooley emphasized his electability while attacking Collins for being under investigation by the House Ethics Committee and for being vulnerable in the general election.

“Beating Jon Ossoff is not gonna be done by another D.C. politician,” Dooley said. “A vote for Mike Collins is a vote for Jon Ossoff for the next six years, but a vote for me is a vote for new leadership in the U.S. Senate.”

As Dooley concluded, the speakers played him off with James Brown’s “Dooley’s Junkyard Dawgs,” written in 1975 about the elder Dooley’s famous UGA football squad. Though he had been mocked by rivals during the campaign for his less-than-stellar track record on the field compared to his father, tonight he had forced the first game of his political career into overtime.

Democrats had settled their nominees for Senate and governor, while Republicans were now bracing for a final sprint to decide their candidates on June 16.

Four weeks left on the clock. Here we go.

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Maine Senate: Corner of the Country, Center of the Battleground

2026-05-21T18:30:00+00:00

Maine should be Democrats’ best pickup opportunity on a difficult Senate map. The only state to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 that is represented by a Republican, Maine is a critical part of the Democratic path back to the majority.

But standing in their way is an immovable force that has beguiled the party for decades: Republican Susan Collins.

Since winning her first race in 1996 and claiming the mantle of trailblazing Maine Sen. Margaret Chase Smith, Collins has bulldozed her way to re-election cycle after cycle, despite Democrats recruiting a variety of well-credentialed and well-funded candidates…

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Report Shorts (May 21, 2026)

2026-05-21T18:29:00+00:00

New Jersey’s 7th District. GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr. has not been seen in public or private for more than two months as he deals with an unspecified medical condition. Kean’s staff insists that the congressman will be back to work shortly and continues to send out communications in his name, but there’s no indication of when he will actually return or where he currently is. While Democrats have a competitive primary to sort through, Republicans need their candidate to be present and on the trail in order to hold this swing seat. Move from Tilt Republican to Toss-up.

Pennsylvania’s…

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2026 House Ratings (May 21, 2026)

2026-05-21T18:28:00+00:00

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Georgia Results: Primary Voters Narrow Their Choices

2026-05-20T15:49:00+00:00
By Nicholas Demba
In battleground Georgia, many marquee races of the night proceeded to runoffs to be decided on June 16. While the Peach State is not set to host any competitive House races this fall and any post-Callais redistricting will not take effect until 2028, primary voters selected nominees in a handful of safe open seats as well as a slate of competitive statewide races.

Another major story took place downballot as Democrat-aligned candidates Miracle Rankin and Jen Jordan lost their bids to unseat two sitting Republican-appointed Supreme Court Justices. The officially nonpartisan races, in which both Rankin and Jordan emphasized their support for abortion rights and were bolstered by superior party turnout, resembled an attempt to replicate the party’s recent successes in Wisconsin. However, even with more voters pulling a Democratic ballot in the primary, Rankin and Jordan fell short.

Senate. Jon Ossoff (D), elected 2020 (51%). In the GOP primary, Rep. Mike Collins finished first with 40 percent and will advance to the runoff while former Tennessee Volunteers football coach Derek Dooley (30 percent) notched the second spot over Rep. Buddy Carter (25 percent). The winner will face Ossoff in November in one of the most expensive Senate races in the country. Dooley leaned on the backing of Gov. Brian Kemp and support from the Atlanta metro region to advance. All three candidates have privately lobbied Trump for his endorsement, though he has declined to endorse in the contest so far. While Republicans started this cycle with high hopes to unseat Ossoff, Kemp’s decision not to run combined with a messy primary now set to extend for another four weeks has diminished the GOP’s chances. Additionally, Ossoff has amassed a sizable war chest for the general election with over $32 million dollars in cash on hand. Tossup.

Governor. Open; Brian Kemp (R), term-limited. In the race for governor, both sides hosted competitive primaries. On the GOP side, Trump-backed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (38 percent) and health care executive Rick Jackson (33 percent) advanced to a runoff. Though Jones had been the initial frontrunner, Jackson jolted this race with his unexpected entry in February, and the billionaire has since spent more than $80 million of his own money on the campaign. The result was the second time in a row President Trump has failed to clear the field for his preferred gubernatorial candidate in Georgia, after Kemp soundly defeated former Sen. David Perdue four years ago. With the third and fourth place candidates, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (15 percent) and state Attorney General Chris Carr (12 percent), hailing from the more establishment wing of the party, Jones faces the tough task of cobbling together a winning coalition in June. The next four weeks of this race are likely to be a continued slugfest between the two rivals.

Meanwhile, the Democratic primary saw former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms successfully avoid a runoff, notching 56 percent of the vote, far ahead of her closest competitors. Her win was driven by a strong showing in Atlanta proper and with Black voters. While Bottoms is likely to face attacks around her tenure as mayor and decision not to run for a second term, Democrats are hoping that infighting on the Republican side and a favorable national environment will allow them to flip the governor’s mansion for the first time in 28 years. Tilt Republican.

1st District (Coastal Georgia) Open; Buddy Carter, R, running for Senate. Trump 58%. Insurance executive Jim Kingston avoided a runoff in the Republican primary, clinching 52 percent of the vote. His father, Jack Kingston, represented coastal Georgia for 22 years. The younger Kingston’s campaign was buoyed by an endorsement from President Trump in April. He will be the heavy favorite in November to replace Carter. Solid Republican.

9th District (Northeastern Georgia and northeastern Atlanta exurbs) Andrew Clyde, R, re-elected 69%. Trump 67%. Republican Rep. Andrew Clyde (75 percent) fended off a challenge from Gainesville mayor Sam Couvillon (13 percent). Hall County Commissioner Greg Poole finished in third with 12 percent. Couvillon had outraised Clyde and targeted him for the lack of money he brought home to the district. Still, Clyde’s incumbency and the backing of President Trump was more than enough to avoid a runoff. Solid Republican.

10th District (Eastern Atlanta exurbs and Athens) Open; Mike Collins, R, running for Senate. Trump 60%. GOP voters nominated State Rep. Houston Gaines in the race to replace Rep. Mike Collins with 67 percent of the vote. He defeated film executive Ryan Millsap (18 percent), who self-funded his campaign. Gaines was the candidate to beat and further solidified his advantage with an endorsement from President Trump. Solid Republican.

11th District (Northwestern Atlanta suburbs and exurbs) Open; Barry Loudermilk, R, not seeking re-election. Trump 61%. Surgeon John Cowan (43 percent) and former congressional aide Rob Adkerson (22 percent) secured two runoff slots as they vie to succeed outgoing Republican Rep. Barry Loudermilk. Whoever wins the runoff should be a lock to hold this seat in November. Solid Republican.

13th District (Western and southern Atlanta suburbs) Vacant following the death of David Scott, D. Harris 71%. What was set to be one of the Democratic primaries this year centering on generational change was flipped on its head after Rep. David Scott passed away on April 22. Scott had been facing a crowded field of challengers focusing the race on his advanced age and declining health. Now in an open seat race, state Rep. Jasmine Clark finished well ahead with 56 percent.. The separate special election to fill the seat for the remainder of the year will be held on July 28. Marcye Scott, the late Representative’s daughter, is among those running. Clark is not running in the special election. Solid Democratic.

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Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Alabama, Oregon Primary Results

2026-05-20T13:47:00+00:00

Alabama Senate. The race to replace Sen. Tommy Tuberville is headed to overtime after no candidate received a majority of the vote. Rep. Barry Moore had Trump’s endorsement and backing from the Club for Growth but finished with around 40 percent. Former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson and state Attorney General Steve Marshall are locked in an unsettled battle for a second spot in the June 16 runoff. Hudson had 26 percent of the vote to Marshall’s 25 percent with most of the votes counted, but the race is not yet called. Democrats Everett Wess and Dakarai Larriett will head to a runoff. Solid Republican.

Alabama’s 1st. Alabama’s congressional map is in a state of flux. The state says it is now using a map drawn in 2023 that includes just one Black-plurality district instead of the map it used in 2024, which contained two such districts. The state voided the primary election in the three affected districts. But the court that previously struck down the 2023 map has said it will still hold a hearing later this week to determine which map the state will ultimately be required to use. The upshot is that tonight’s GOP primary results in the open 1st District won’t count, but there’s a chance that the same candidates will face off against each other in an August special primary — potentially under the same lines as in 2024. Solid Republican.

Kentucky Senate. Rep. Andy Barr easily pushed past former state attorney general Daniel Cameron, 61-31 percent, after securing an endorsement from President Donald Trump a few weeks ago. Cameron had entered the race with high name ID and a polling advantage but Barr’s fundraising strength and energetic campaign pulled him into a tie with Cameron by springtime. Trump’s intervention — endorsing Barr and pushing the third credible candidate, Nate Morris, out of the race — sealed the deal for the Lexington congressman. Democrats nominated former state Rep. Charles Booker for a second time. He lost handily to Sen. Rand Paul four years ago. Solid Republican.

Kentucky’s 4th. Rep. Thomas Massie is no stranger to breaks from party orthodoxy. But his vote against the president’s reconciliation bill last year and his push to force the Justice Department to release its documents on Jeffrey Epstein was too much for Trump. The president’s team recruited former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein to run against Massie and directed his political allies to spend tens of millions of dollars on Gallrein’s behalf. Massie couldn’t hold on, losing to Gallrein, 55-45 percent. The result is the latest flex of Trump’s continued hold over the GOP. He’s now helped topple two GOP incumbents, Massie and Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy, and his refusal to endorse a third, Texas Rep. Dan Crenshaw, likely contributed to his defeat as well. Even as the president’s standing among the American people continues to explore new lows, his strength within the GOP is unparalleled. Solid Republican.

Kentucky’s 6th. This district could emerge on the House battleground if the political environment continues to worsen for Republicans. Right now, Ralph Alvarado is the heavy favorite to win the general election after dispatching state Rep. Ryan Dotson in the GOP primary, 57-26 percent. Alvarado was endorsed by Trump. But Democrats are also eager to contest the seat. Former federal prosecutor Zach Dembo emerged victorious in that primary with 40 percent over state Rep. Cherlynn Stevenson (32 percent). Solid Republican.

Oregon Governor. Former state House minority leader Christine Drazan won the GOP primary with 43 percent over Ed Diehl (32 percent) and former Portland Trail Blazer Chris Dudley (16 percent) and others. Drazan lost a competitive race to Kotek by 3 points in 2022 and Dudley lost a gubernatorial race by 1.5 points in 2010. Even though Oregon hasn’t elected a Republican governor since 1982, Kotek’s unpopularity is giving the GOP some hope.

Pennsylvania’s 1st District. Bob Harvie won the Democratic nomination 65-35 percent over Lucia Simonelli and will face GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in the general election. Fitzpatrick had a whopping $7.3 million to $604,000 cash advantage on April 29, but the suburban Philadelphia district voted narrowly for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in 2024 and the political environment is much worse for the GOP. Lean Republican.

Pennsylvania’s 3rd District. Chris Rabb (44 percent) defeated Sharif Street (30 percent) and Dr. Ala Stanford (24 percent) to win the Democratic nomination. That’s critical in the race to replace Democratic Rep. Dwight Evans in the Philadelphia seat where Harris received 88 percent. Rabb was the progressive choice in the race and had endorsements from New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the Democratic Socialists of America. Solid Democratic.

Pennsylvania’s 7th. National Democrats waded into this contentious primary a few weeks ago when the DCCC anointed firefighter Bob Brooks as its preferred candidate over Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure, former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell, and former energy executive Carol Obando-Derstine. That ruffled a few feathers but ultimately Brooks prevailed with 42 percent, boosted along the way by endorsements from Gov. Josh Shapiro and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. GOP Rep. Ryan Mackenzie is a top Democratic target this fall. Toss-up.

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Podcast Episode 71: Which Nebraska Republicans Might Lose? w/ Aaron Sanderford of Nebraska Examiner

2026-05-15T18:52:00+00:00

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Aaron Sanderford of Nebraska Examiner take a fresh look at the Senate race in the Cornhusker State, where Democrats are rallying behind independent candidate Dan Osborn against Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts. Osborn came up short in 2024, but the conditions might be right for an upset in 2026. Nathan, Jacob and Aaron also talk about the competitive race for the Omaha-based 2nd District, where Republicans are trying to hold on with GOP Rep. Don Bacon not seeking re-election. There’s also plenty of talk about the best free bread in America, a delicious place to eat in Omaha and the upcoming Star Wars movie.

Listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Pocket Casts here.

The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential and gubernatorial races in a nonpartisan, data-driven, and accessible way. With a combination of reporting and data, Inside Elections brings valuable context to complex races. Go to InsideElections.com to subscribe to the bi-weekly newsletter through individual subscriptions and group packages that are tailored for association and corporate PACs.

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Virginia Caps Off Wild Week of Redistricting Ratings Changes

2026-05-08T15:35:00+00:00
By Jacob Rubashkin
The Virginia State Supreme Court struck down Democrats’ ambitious redistricting plan in the Old Dominion on Friday. The map, which was designed to elect 10 Democrats and just one Republican, was approved by voters in a statewide referendum last month.

The decision is an exclamation point on a madcap week of redistricting that began with Florida passing an aggressive new GOP-drawn map and then saw Tennessee dismantle its last remaining majority-Black, Solid Democratic district.

Factoring in today’s shifts in Virginia, Inside Elections has made 12 House ratings changes this week due to redistricting, with 11 in favor of Republicans and 1 in favor of Democrats: five in Virginia, five in Florida, and two in Tennessee.

Following those changes, Republicans are favored to win seven more seats than they were on Monday.

Virginia
Our ratings will revert to where they were before the April 21 referendum.

1st District. GOP Rep. Rob Wittman will still face a competitive race, likely against Henrico Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor, but the partisan lean of the district is again in his favor. Move from Solid Democratic to Lean Republican.

2nd District. GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans’ Virginia Beach-based district remains largely the same but is a bit more favorable to Republicans now. You can read a full analysis of this race in the May 7 issue of Inside Elections. Move from Tilt Democratic to Toss-up.

5th District. GOP Rep. John McGuire is the clear favorite against likely Democratic nominee Tom Perriello following the court’s decision to restore the old map, though this district could get more competitive for Democrats. Move from Solid Democratic to Solid Republican.

6th District. GOP Rep. Ben Cline was one of the loudest critics of the redistricting referendum as it demolished his Shenandoah Valley district. Now he’ll be the favorite in this very Republican seat. Move from Lean Democratic to Solid Republican.

7th District. Democratic Rep. Eugene Vindman had planned to move to the new 1st District and leave a radically reconfigured 7th open for the taking. Now he’ll face a competitive re-election campaign in the perennial swing seat. Move from Solid Democratic to Lean Democratic.

Florida
A full accounting of Florida’s ratings changes can be found in the May 7 issue of Inside Elections.

9th District. Democrat Darren Soto is the underdog in this reconfigured Central Florida seat that is no longer majority-Hispanic. Move from Solid Democratic to Likely Republican.

14th District. Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor will be an underdog for re-election after the redraw swapped out two-thirds of her constituents and turned the district into one that voted for Trump by double digits in 2024. Move from Solid Democratic to Lean Republican.

22nd District. Rep. Lois Frankel is leaving this district to run in the neighboring and more Democratic 23rd District. The new and radically reconfigured 22nd would have voted for Trump by a healthy margin in 2024, but for Biden in 2020. Former state Sen. Lauren Book might run here and would be a credible candidate for Democrats. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz is another possibility. Move from Solid Democratic to Tilt Republican.

23rd District. Frankel is running in this redrawn seat that is now safely Democratic. Incumbent Democrat Jared Moskowitz may run in the 25th. Move from Lean Democratic to Solid Democratic.

25th District. Moskowitz has indicated he’ll run in this coastal district that swung from Biden to Trump between 2020 and 2024. Move from Solid Democratic to Toss-up.

Tennessee.
A full writeup of Tennessee’s new map appeared online at InsideElections.com on May 8.

5th District. Republicans went out of their way to shore up embattled Rep. Andy Ogles in his primary and general elections. Move from Likely Republican to Solid Republican.

9th District. Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen sees his majority-Black Memphis seat obliterated following the Supreme Court’s decision weakening the Voting Rights Act. Move from Solid Democratic to Solid Republican.

What’s Next
Republican state legislators across the South are contemplating what steps to take in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision in Callais vs. Louisiana, which seemed to open the door to the widespread elimination of majority-Black House seats.

In Louisiana, Gov. Jeff Landry declared a state of emergency and canceled next week’s House primaries to give the state legislature time to draw a map intended to defeat either or both of 2nd District Rep. Troy Carter and 6th Rep. Cleo Fields, both Black Democrats. There is ongoing litigation to prevent that move.

In South Carolina, legislators have convened to discuss dismantling the Palmetto State’s remaining majority-Black seat, held by longtime Rep. Jim Clyburn, but there’s some reluctance among the state Senate leadership to do so.

In Alabama, Republicans await a decision by a lower court that previously barred the state from changing its current map until 2032, after the next decennial census. A favorable ruling for Republicans could prompt the legislature to turn one or both of Black Democratic Reps. Terri Sewell and Shomari Figures’ districts into Republican-friendly seats.

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2026 House Ratings (May 8, 2026) Post Virginia

2026-05-08T14:34:00+00:00

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Tennessee Redistricting: Republicans Seek 9-0 after SCOTUS goes 6-3

2026-05-08T05:04:00+00:00
By Jacob Rubashkin
Wasting little time after the Supreme Court defanged what remained of the Voting Rights Act, Tennessee Republicans passed a map designed to elect nine Republican members of Congress this fall. The Volunteer State’s delegation is currently split 8-1 in favor of Republicans, with Democrat Steve Cohen of Memphis as the odd man out.

The new map, signed into law Thursday by Gov. Bill Lee, dismantles Cohen’s majority-Black 9th District by parceling Democratic voters out into neighboring, GOP-friendly seats. Under the new map, Tennessee has no majority-Black seats. Expected legal challenges could shed light on just how reduced in power the Voting Rights Act is following the court’s 6-3 decision in Callais vs. Louisiana last week.

The legislature also re-opened candidate filing until May 15. All nine districts on the new map are rated Solid Republican.

1st District. The 1st remains unchanged under the new map, and Rep. Diana Harshbarger doesn’t have any challengers in the primary, where she received just 19 percent in her initial 2020 election.

2nd District. The 2nd remains unchanged under the new map. Rep. Tim Burchett is running unopposed in the GOP primary.

3rd District. The 3rd remains largely unchanged under the new map and is still anchored by Chattanooga. Rep. Chuck Fleischmann is the presumptive GOP nominee.

4th District. The new 4th District reaches into Davidson County (Nashville), picking up Democratic voters previously placed in the 5th and 6th districts. As a result, the district gets moderately less friendly to the GOP; its Baseline score decreases from R+39 to R+18. That’s more than enough of a cushion for the GOP nominee. Rep. Scott DesJarlais’s personal baggage almost always ensures he has a primary challenger, and with 33 percent new constituents he may have to take the primary more seriously.

5th District. Currently on the edge of the House battleground, the 5th District is radically reshaped in the new map. The new seat, which pulls in pieces of the old 5th (17 percent), 7th (28 percent), 8th (22 percent) and 9th (32 percent) districts, begins in Memphis in the state’s southwest corner, snakes north along the Mississippi River, and hangs a right turn at the Kentucky border, extending east to Montgomery and Williamson counties. It no longer includes any of Nashville. GOP Rep. Andy Ogles is the biggest beneficiary of any incumbent on the map. Not only does the new 5th pick up a few points of GOP performance, with a Baseline of R+17 compared to R+15 under the old map, but the map kneecaps both of his most worrisome opponents. Former commissioner of agriculture Charlie Hatcher, who is running against Ogles in the GOP primary, sees his home base in Williamson County drawn out of the district. And Ogles’ likely general election opponent, Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder, likewise sees half of Columbia and surrounding Maury County drawn out of the district.

6th District. While the core of the 6th District stays intact, roughly 40 percent of voters under the new map will be new to the district, which reaches further into Nashville than previously. Politically, the most significant change is that state Rep. Johnny Garrett, one of the leading candidates for the GOP nomination, sees his legislative seat excised from the district. That may lead to him dropping out, which he hinted at while expressing support for the new map. Former Rep. Van Hilleary is the other major candidate running in the GOP primary to succeed Rep. John Rose, who is running for governor.

7th District. The new 7th is a more compact seat that includes the western half of Nashville as well as the city’s western and northern suburbs. Previously the 7th ran north to south and touched both Kentucky and Alabama, and included the city of Franklin in Williamson County.

Politically, the 7th gains a few points of GOP performance, with its Baseline increasing from R+18 to R+20. Rep. Matt Van Epps, the newest member of the delegation, won a competitive special election late last year but should have an easier time winning a full term this fall.

8th District. The 8th District absorbs much of northeast Memphis, and though the new district contains significantly more Democrats than before, it remains quite friendly to the GOP, with a new Baseline of R+20. That’s more than enough for Rep. David Kustoff to win re-election.

9th District. The current 9th District, a compact Solid Democratic seat based in Memphis, is effectively demolished by the new map. In its place is a seat that stretches east in a thin line from South Memphis, 250 miles along the Mississippi and Alabama borders, and then shoots north to take in the eastern half of Williamson County. The new district is just 31 percent Black, compared to 61 percent under the old map. Its Baseline is an uncompetitive R+15 and it would have voted for Donald Trump in 2024 by 21 points.

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2026 House Ratings (May 8, 2026)

2026-05-08T05:03:00+00:00

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Virginia 2: A Rematch at the Beach

2026-05-07T18:30:00+00:00

Republican Jen Kiggans’ 2026 re-election was always going to be her hardest race yet. But after Democrats muscled through an aggressive redraw of Virginia’s congressional map, the two-term representative is one of just a handful of GOP incumbents to begin the summer as a clear underdog.

Kiggans’ experience as a helicopter pilot and nurse practitioner has made her a favorite among GOP strategists — and she has even extracted grudging notes of appreciation and respect from the national and Virginia Democrats who have spent two cycles trying unsuccessfully to paint her as an extremist.

But a midterm election with a…
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Texas 34: New Flores, New District, Same Gonzalez

2026-05-07T18:29:00+00:00

President Donald Trump’s gains among Hispanic voters in 2020 and 2024 helped him keep Texas red and return to the White House. But despite significant swings at the presidential level, that newfound strength has been slower to translate down ballot, where the GOP holds just two of South Texas’ four congressional districts.

Republicans hope to change that this cycle, boosted by a set of fresh-faced recruits and a new congressional map that ratchets up the pressure on several Democratic incumbents. One of those pressured Democrats is Vicente Gonzalez, whose 34th District swung hard toward Trump in 2024 and got even…
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Ohio & Indiana Primaries: Republicans Choose Challengers in Key House Races

2026-05-06T03:37:00+00:00

The redistricting battle continued on Tuesday as voters in Ohio and Indiana went to the polls for a slate of primaries.

Early in the cycle, Republicans were determined to gain as many as three House seats in the Buckeye State. But with six months to go before the general election, Republicans might be fortunate to gain a single seat, if any at all.

In Ohio’s 9th District, GOP primary voters selected state Rep. Derek Merrin (43 percent) over state Rep. Josh Williams (26 percent), former ICE deputy director Madison Sheahan (20 percent) and two others. Even though Merrin came within…
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Florida House: Redistricting Boosts GOP prospects

2026-05-05T17:49:00+00:00
By Bradley Wascher
Florida’s new congressional map could net House Republicans as many as four additional seats this fall, though it could also result in much smaller gains for the GOP.

The plan, approved by the Florida state legislature and signed into law by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, comes in the wake of Democrats’ aggressive redraw in Virginia, in the latest battles of the redistricting war.

The new map eliminates one Democrat-held district south of Orlando. Tampa’s Democrats, once mostly concentrated in the 14th District, are now cracked across four districts that each voted for Trump by 10 to 20 points. And although Democrats carried five South Florida seats in 2024, that delegation might be reduced to three after 2026.

Kamala Harris would have finished ahead of Donald Trump in four seats under the new map, compared to eight under the previous map.

DeSantis argued that the previous map was drawn, by Republicans, using flawed census data on unconstitutional grounds. His team contended that Florida’s Fair Districts Amendment, which was approved by voters in 2010 and bars gerrymandering for partisan purposes, would run afoul of the anticipated — and ultimately delivered — Callais decision from the Supreme Court.

The old map contained four majority-Hispanic districts while the new map only contains three: one of the eliminated Democratic-held seats, Florida’s 9th District, is now 41 percent Hispanic.

The map is already facing legal challenges, but most of the justices on the Florida Supreme Court are DeSantis appointees and the court previously approved the 2022 map, which itself advantaged Republicans.

North Florida
There are no changes to Florida’s 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th districts in North Florida. There also weren’t any changes to the 7th District, currently represented by GOP Rep. Cory Mills, But the congressman is the subject of an ethics investigation and the race is competitive and rated Likely Republican.

Central Florida
The 8th District pulls more into Orange County toward Orlando, picking up University of Central Florida from the 10th District, in exchange for Indian River County. The district’s Baseline average would tighten from R+23 to R+17 — but cozy enough for Republican Rep. Mike Haridopolos to likely win re-election.

Florida’s 9th, represented by Democratic Rep. Darren Soto, is dramatically redrawn. Once contained around Kissimmee, the district is now sprawling — approximately three-fifths of the population in the old 9th District overlaps with the new version. The new lines include Indian River County (home to Vero Beach and Sebastian) and extends south into Highlands (Avon Park and Sebring), Glades, and Okeechobee counties.

In return, the district drops some of its reach into Orlando and Kissimmee — and Poinciana entirely. The Hispanic population decreases from 54 percent under the old lines to 41 percent under the new map, meaning it is no longer majority Hispanic. These changes would be enough to flip the 9th District’s Baseline from D+10 to R+15. And it’s trending toward Trump: he won by 2 points in 2016, 7 points in 2020, and 18 points in 2024.

But Soto appears willing to seek re-election to his reconfigured seat. According to Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics, possible Republican candidates in the 9th District could include Osceola County Commissioner Ricky Booth and former state Rep. Mike de la Rosa. Likely Republican.

Florida’s 10th District. The demographics are virtually unchanged — retains three-fourths of its current population. The district is still located completely within Orange County but exchanges UCF for reach into South Apopka. The new map increases Democrats’ Baseline advantage in the 10th District by one point to D+26. Democratic Rep. Maxwell Frost is in no real danger. Solid Democratic.

Florida’s 11th District retains 85 percent of the population. Already containing Walt Disney World, it now reaches past Doctor Phillips to take in Universal Orlando Resort. Baseline moves from R+20 under the old lines to R+18 under the new lines. After Republican Rep. Daniel Webster announced his retirement, six Republicans and four Democrats have filed to run, including Lake County Commissioner Anthony Sabatini, who briefly ran against Webster in the 2024 primary. Solid Republican.

Tampa Bay
Florida’s 12th District shifts south as the district and is still reliably red, but becomes much bluer — from R+34 to R+12. The new lines drop Citrus and Hernando counties and now reach toward Dade City with substantial reach into Hillsborough County toward Tampa. The district retains 41 percent of the current 12th District’s population, with the rest split between the old 14th and old 15th. The share of adults with a Bachelor’s degree jumps from 24 percent to 34 percent, close to the national average of 37 percent. The share of white population drops from 74 percent to 55 percent, while the Hispanic share rises from 15 percent to 28 percent.

While Trump would have carried the new 12th by 15 points, he would have secured a narrower 6-point victory in 2020. Republican Rep. Gus Bilirakis has said he will seek re-election to the 12th District. Democrat Kim Overman, the former Hillsborough County commissioner who had been running in the 15th District, said she will instead run against Bilirakis. Army veteran and former CIA officer Chris Irizarry is also running. Solid Republican, but worth keeping an eye on in a great Democratic year.

Florida’s 13th retains four-fifths of its population, anchored around Clearwater and the rest of central Pinellas County. The lines pick up northern portions of St. Petersburg in exchange for southern portions reaching toward St. Pete Beach. In the north, it also reaches into Pasco County. Retired Army Brigadier General Leela Grey is a compelling challenger to Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, if she can make it through a crowded Democratic primary field. Likely Republican.

Florida’s 14th District is one of the Democratic-held districts targeted in the redraw. Currently held by Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor, the new 14th keeps less than one third of its old population, with around half of the new district’s residents coming from the old 16th District, and the rest from the former 15th. The 14th District previously included Tampa and St. Petersburg, but now only it takes a sliver of Tampa and none of St. Petersburg. The lines also extend away from the coast to take in mostly Republican precincts — plus some more evenly-divided areas near Brandon and Riverview, as well as majority-Hispanic Town ‘n’ Country.

In both versions of the 14th District, Hispanics made up 28 percent of the population. The average margin according to Baseline was D+12 on the old map and R+11 on the new map; Trump also would have carried the new version of the 14th by 11 points in 2024. The new 14th District looked better for Democrats last decade: it would have backed Republican candidates by 5 points on average in 2018 statewide and federal races, and Trump would have won it by just 3 points in 2020. Castor has said she will continue campaigning in this seat even with the less favorable lines. Lean Republican.

Florida’s 15th District used to be split between Polk, Pasco, and Hillsborough. But it now no longer reaches into Polk, and goes up into Hernando and Citrus. The new 15th shares only 36 percent of its population with the old version, with half of it coming from the old 12th District. But in return it becomes more solidly Republican, moving from R+10 to R+17 in Baseline. The seat used to connect Lakeland to Tampa, bringing in a range of communities including Pebble Creek, Plant City, and Zephyrhills — not to mention the University of South Florida. The new version drops Plant City, instead reaching toward Dade City in Pasco County and Brooksville and Spring HIll in Hernando County. GOP Rep. Laurel Lee would technically live in the new 14th District but has said she will run again in her current 15th — although she faces a primary challenge from Hernando County Commissioner Steve Champion. Solid Republican.

Florida’s 16th District contains around half of its old population, with another 20 percent coming from the old 13th District. The demographics don’t change much. Formerly confined to Hillsborough and Manatee counties, it drops HIllsborough in exchange for all of DeSoto County (Arcadia) and Hardee County (Wauchula), plus portions of Polk and Sarasota counties. The district no longer includes Riverview or Apollo Beach, and its baseline moves from R+17 to R+12. Republican Rep. Vern Buchanan is retiring, and Sydney Gruters, the wife of RNC chairman Joe Gruters, is the favorite to succeed him. Former Sarasota Mayor Kelly Kirschner, who comes from a prominent political family, is a credible candidate for Democrats and this district could be one to watch if the bottom falls out for Republicans. Solid Republican.

Florida’s 17th District retains 85 percent of its population, keeping all of Charlotte County. It sheds a slice of Sarasota County, while in Lee County it trades most of Lehigh Acres in exchange for Fort Myers. There’s not much difference demographically and the partisanship moves slightly, from R+22 to R+20. Republican Rep. Greg Steube should be fine. Solid Republican.

Florida’s 18th District is much smaller area-wise — dropping a half-dozen less-populous counties — but the new lines retain nearly two-thirds of the original population, still situated in Polk County. Now geographically centered around Winter Haven, the district keeps Haines City and Lake Wales while picking up Poinciana and the rest of Lakeland. Demographics between both district versions are mostly the same, but the Baseline margin tightens from R+30 to R+17 — which is probably not a problem for GOP Rep. Scott Franklin. Solid Republican.

Florida’s 19th District retains 80 percent of its population. It still combines Cape Coral and Fort Myers with Naples. But the new version trades Fort Myers to the 17th District for Lehigh Acres, and drops Marco Island in exchange for residential communities east of Naples. Baseline partisanship stays at R+32 in this open seat, with GOP Rep. Byron Donalds running for governor. According to Florida Politics, “most of the Republicans running say they will stay” in the 19th District, but former New York Rep. Chris Collins, one of several former members making a comeback bid in the GOP primary, might also switch to running in the 19th District. Solid Republican.

Florida’s 20th District retains two-thirds of its old population. But it is much tinier geographically, trading in distant cities in Palm Beach County for closer precincts in Coral Springs and Fort Lauderdale — dropping the share of Black residents from 49 percent to 42 percent. The average Democratic advantage shrinks from 49 points to 46 points under the new map, making it safe for whichever Democrat replaces former Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who resigned following an ethics inquiry into a misuse of government funds reported upon first by Inside Elections. Cherfilus-McCormick is running for her old seat but faces a number of primary opponents, and there are rumblings that Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz may also run here. Solid Democratic.

Florida’s 21st District keeps 95 percent of its old population, trading communities from its southern tip in Palm Beach County to make way for the new 20th District. The 21st District's Baseline partisanship is one point less Republican-leaning than before — it is now R+15, which creates some wiggle room for GOP Rep. Brian Mast. Solid Republican.

South Florida
The previous map produced five Democratic-leaning seats in South Florida. But the new map packs Democrats into three districts: in West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, and Miami.

Florida’s 22nd District. Both demolished Democratic-held seats are virtually unrecognizable after the makeover. The primary overlap between both versions of the 22nd District is Wellington in Palm Beach County — approximately 13 percent of the district’s population. (Meanwhile, 24 percent comes from the old 25th District, 22 percent from the old 23rd, 17 percent from the old 26h, and 12 percent from the old 20th, with the remainder spread across three additional districts.)

The previous version of the 22nd hugged the coast from Palm Beach to Delray Beach. But now Wellington, a half-hour drive from the beach, is the easternmost point — with the lines stretching down into the top half of Broward County and west to cover all of Hendry County and non-Naples Collier County. These changes transform the district from D+12 to R+5, and while Trump would have won the seat by 10 points in 2024, he would have lost it by 3 points in 2020. Demographically the district didn’t change much: 44 percent of the population is white and 34 percent is Hispanic, while 42 percent of adults have a college degree. Wasserman-Schultz might run here given the overlap with her old district. Tilt Republican.

Florida’s 23rd District is effectively a renumbered version of the 22nd District currently held by Democratic Rep. Lois Frankel. The new 23rd contains 80 percent of the old 22nd, with the remainder coming from the old 20th. The 23rd District previously resembled the number 7, connecting to Fort Lauderdale via Coral Springs and Parkland. But now the district moves north, bridging Delray Beach to Riviera Beach, with Boynton Beach, Palm Springs, and West Palm Beach in between. This packs Democrats, bumping the Baseline average from D+8 to D+21. The population is 39 percent white, 30 percent Hispanic, and 25 percent Black, and one-third of adults have a college degree. Florida Politics reports that Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz, who currently represents the 23rd District, “has his eyes” on running here over to the new 25th. But Frankel needs a home too. Solid Democratic.

Florida’s 24th District retains 70 percent of its old population, shedding its eastern reach into Miami Beach and North Miami Beach in return for northern reach into Hollywood. But both versions remain anchored in Miami Gardens and North Miami. The district is 43 percent Hispanic, 43 percent Black, and 10 percent white; 24 percent of adults have a bachelor’s degree, compared to 32 percent under the previous map). The Democratic Baseline advantage grew from D+48 to D+56 — a safe bet for Democratic Rep. Frederica Wilson to win her ninth term. Solid Democratic.

Florida’s 25th is another district with no true predecessor — formed by leftover pieces not used to pack the three remaining Democratic-leaning districts. Forty-six percent of its population comes from the old 23rd District, while 30 percent is from the outgoing 24th District and just 16 percent comes from the original 25th District.

The 25th previously stretched from Hollywood and Davie to Weston, Pembroke Pines, and Miramar. But now it only keeps the communities on the coast — one section of a long, thin district binding Boca Raton to Miami Beach. The result is a population that is whiter (54 percent, compared to 31 percent under the old map) and more likely to have a college degree (49 percent, up from 42 percent). But with many red precincts picked up along the beaches, the Democratic Baseline shrinks from D+15 to even. At least two credible Republicans, former state Rep. George Moraitis and Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer, have already swapped over to the new 25th. Moskowitz could run here and would be a credible Democrat in a district that voted for Biden by 9 points in 2020 and for Trump by 5 points in 2024. Toss-up.

In Florida’s 26th District, Republican Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart made the biggest sacrifices, befitting for one of the top GOP overperformers in the country. The GOP Baseline advantage in the district tightened considerably from R+27 to R+6. The district used to cover the top slice of Miami-Dade County and the outskirts of Naples in Collier County. The district retains 60 percent of its population, mostly in Miami-Dade County — including the heavily Hispanic communities of Hialeah and Doral — but also picks up many blue-leaning precincts from Broward County.

Based on past presidential results, the 26th District would have swung nearly 40 points in eight years: Hillary Clinton would have carried the new 26th by 20 points in 2016, while Trump would have won by 2 points in 2020 and 18 points in 2024. Demographically, 36 percent of adults have a bachelor’s degree — a 5-point increase compared to the previous map — while Hispanic voters still make up three-fourths of the district’s population. Solid Republican, but could get more interesting.

The 27th and 28th districts are identical to the old map except for a few precincts.

Like the 26th District, the 27th and 28th voted for Clinton in 2016 before swinging hard for Trump in 2020 and 2024. Approximately 70 percent of the populations in both districts are Hispanic. But 44 percent of adults in the 27th District have a college degree, compared to 30 percent of the 28th. This seat could be in danger for Republicans if the conditions are right for Democrats, and a newscaster vs. newscaster battle between GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar and Democratic Elliot Rodriguez could be interesting. Likely Republican.

The 28th District remains a reach for Democrats, but a sizable enough swing among Hispanic voters could put Rep. Carlos Gimenez in some danger. Hector Mujica, the former director of American philanthropy at Google, is running. So is Phil Ehr, a Navy veteran and perennial candidate who lost to Gimenez by 19 points in 2024. Solid Republican.

Editor's Note: An earlier version of this story misstated the first name of Rep. Castor: she's Kathy, not Kelly.

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2026 House Ratings (May 5, 2026)

2026-05-05T17:48:00+00:00

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Supreme Court Strikes Down Louisiana Congressional Map

2026-04-29T19:20:00+00:00
By Jacob Rubashkin
On Wednesday, the Supreme Court struck down Louisiana’s congressional map as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, in a decision that could have far-reaching implications for a dozen or more Democratic-held districts across the South and around the country. The immediate effects of the decision on the 2026 midterms, however, are less clear. And as Democrats continue to perform strongly in competitive House districts across the country, it’s unlikely that this decision changes the underlying assessment that Democrats are favored to take back the House.

The Callais decision, authored by Justice Samuel Alito and joined by his five conservative colleagues, did not strike down Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, as some had anticipated. But Alito altered its interpretation to such a degree that the law, which for decades has helped protect majority-Black and majority-Hispanic seats from being dismantled by aggressive gerrymanders, may in effect be toothless moving forward. In her dissent, Justice Elena Kagan wrote that the “decision renders Section 2 all but a dead letter.”

In practice, the Court’s decision likely comes too late to affect most states’ redistricting processes ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, even as the redistricting wars have raged on for the past 10 months. And because the Court did not explicitly overturn Section 2, it’s not obvious the extent to which mapmakers now have license to dismantle minority-opportunity districts with abandon.

First, the timing. The case centered on a majority-Black district Louisiana mapmakers drew ahead of the 2024 election following a previous Supreme Court decision. That district, now held by Democrat Cleo Fields, stretched from Shreveport to Baton Rouge and was challenged by “non-Black plaintiffs” in Callais.

That district will almost certainly cease to exist after this year. So may Alabama’s 2nd District, another minority-opportunity district drawn after the Court’s 2024 decision and held by Democrat Shomari Figures.

But it’s not clear if there is enough time ahead of this election for the Louisiana and Alabama legislatures to redraw its maps ahead of November. Both states’ filing deadlines have already passed, and their primaries — May 16 and May 19, respectively — are fast approaching. It’s not unheard of for states to hold statewide and congressional primaries on separate dates due to ongoing litigation, but inertia can be strong in redistricting cases, especially as absentee ballots have already been mailed out in both states and early in-person voting begins in Louisiana in two days.

It’s a similar story in other states across the South home to VRA-protected districts. Filing deadlines have passed in South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, and Mississippi. The primaries have already happened in Texas and North Carolina. The calendar may ultimately limit the ability of states to redraw their maps ahead of 2026 in response to this decision.

A more pressing case may be Florida’s ongoing effort to redraw its congressional map to help Republicans pick up as many as four additional seats. The ostensible rationale for approving Gov. Ron DeSantis’ proposed map rested in part on the assumption that the Court would strike down Section 2 of the VRA entirely, and also that Florida’s own anti-gerrymandering constitutional amendment is superseded by federal law. The Court’s decision to leave Section 2 in place, albeit essentially defanged, may not prevent the Florida legislature from approving the DeSantis map, but could create complications when the map is challenged in court.

Second, the scope. There is a long list of districts that could potentially be affected by this decision in the South alone: one seat each in both Louisiana and Alabama (in addition to the two seats mentioned above), one seat each in Mississippi and South Carolina, and another handful each across Georgia, Florida, and Texas.

A maximalist reaction to Callais could see Republicans aim to eviscerate all or most of those districts ahead of the 2028 elections, including seats held by longtime Democratic power players such as South Carolina’s Jim Clyburn and Mississippi’s Bennie Thompson. But those choices will come under individual legal scrutiny, in addition to the political challenges that accompany wholesale reconfigurations of congressional maps.

An early indication may come from Louisiana’s next steps. If the GOP-controlled legislature approves a map that dismantles not only Fields’ new district but also the longstanding majority-Black New Orleans-based district held by Democrat Troy Carter, it would be a sign that Republicans are opting for a maximalist approach. If Louisiana instead reverts to a pre-2024 status quo map that leaves Carter’s 2nd District unchanged, it would signal a more hesitant approach.

The medium- and long-term effects of this decision remain uncertain — especially if in 2028 Democrats respond in kind with more aggressive gerrymandering in the states under their control, such as Colorado, New York, Maryland, Oregon and elsewhere. But within the context of the 2026 elections, much is still the same. Democrats maintain an advantage on the generic ballot, the Republican president is deeply unpopular, and the vast majority of Congressional districts are largely set in place. With Democrats needing a net gain of just 3 seats to reclaim control, they remain favored to win the House this fall.

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Florida Redistricting: Data and Election Results for Proposed Map

2026-04-28T22:02:00+00:00
By Bradley Wascher
The redistricting war continues with Florida. The potentially new congressional map drawn and proposed by Republicans could help the party gain as many as four additional seats. But those gains could be difficult in the current political environment that favors Democrats. We'll change appropriate race ratings when a new map is in place. But for now, here's how the potentially new districts compare to the current lines.

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Podcast Episode 70: O-H I-O primaries w/ Henry J. Gomez of NBC News

2026-04-28T20:57:00+00:00

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Henry J. Gomez of NBC News break down all of the upcoming primaries in Ohio. The trio also analyzes whether incumbent Democrats Marcy Kaptur, Greg Landsman and Emilia Sykes or Republicans representatives Max Miller and Mike Turner will be returning to Congress, takes an early look at the huge Senate race between GOP Sen. Jon Husted and former Democratic senator Sherrod Brown, and talks about whether Democrats really have a shot of winning the race for governor.

Listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Pocket Casts here.

The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential and gubernatorial races in a nonpartisan, data-driven, and accessible way. With a combination of reporting and data, Inside Elections brings valuable context to complex races. Go to InsideElections.com to subscribe to the bi-weekly newsletter through individual subscriptions and group packages that are tailored for association and corporate PACs.

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2026 Senate Overview (April 23, 2026): Democratic Majority Within Reach

2026-04-23T18:30:00+00:00

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

Just a few months ago, Republican strategists expressed optimism about their party’s midterm fortunes. Despite President Donald Trump's mediocre job approval rating, gas prices were falling, the stock market was surging and tax refunds were imminent. Republicans felt like they had time to turn things around before November. But the president’s war with Iran has at least stalled that momentum, Election Day creeps closer and there’s considerable doubt that Republicans can reassemble the 2024 Trump coalition.

By this point in his first term Trump’s job rating had taken a modest turn for the…
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