tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8712134747711579865Sun, 22 Sep 2024 19:06:19 +0000memorynandcapexappledrammicrosoftmsftaaplsndkyahooyhooflashsandisktexas instrumentstxngoogmicronmusemicapakamakamaigoogleintclrcxnvdanvidiarimmamatapplied materialsblackberrycorningglassworksglwinteliphonenews corpnoknokianwsamazonamdamznbbydelldigital riverdisplaydrivformformfactorfpdhddibmipodjp morganjpmklaclamlam researchmtsnnational seminational semiconductornintendontdoyphtnrackresearch in motionsolarstoragesynasynapticsvseaPCactivisionadbladialtranalog devicesarrisarrsatherosathratomatviaudibleauobaidubear stearnsbest buybidublodgetbrcmbroadcombscccciscocmcsacmoscomcastcscodisdisneyelectronic artsemcericericssonertsfdicfhlbhandsetshewlett packardhpqhyniximingram microitouchkla tencorlcdmattsonmediamu memory nand capex dramnetbooknsmovtiphoton dynamicspolysiliconppipps3rackablerackable systemsretailsamsungsoxstmtaiwan semitaiwan semiconductortake twothomsonthqthq interactivetime warnertmstosbftoshibatsmttwotwxvarianvmwwdcwestern digitalwiiwirelessxboxxlnxhttp://theskew.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.com (Roy Howard)Blogger765125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8712134747711579865.post-1121364027891769475Mon, 06 Jul 2009 18:17:00 +00002009-07-06T14:17:35.351-04:00I’ve accepted a position at Concept Capital. The blog is on extended hiatus for the time being. I am still active in the markets and reachable at royhoward@gmail.com. I look forward to hearing from you. http://theskew.blogspot.com/2009/07/what-kind-of-crummy-blog-is-this-where.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Roy Howard)4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8712134747711579865.post-6367830662306679640Mon, 08 Jun 2009 17:52:00 +00002009-06-08T13:52:23.037-04:00Pretty rare to get a stream of this.  Our seats suck, the audio is scratchy and I can hear keyclicks and digital cameras going off every couple of seconds, but here it is: http://theskew.blogspot.com/2009/06/live-stream-of-apple-wwdc.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Roy Howard)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8712134747711579865.post-2755909045802444706Mon, 08 Jun 2009 12:31:00 +00002009-06-08T08:31:49.195-04:00DB positive QCOM after meeting with management, believes upside to ASIC shipments for this q and likely for next.  Co has seen baseband shortages but believes they will be alleviated shortly. MS positive MU, citing qualification and initial shipments of 32mb NAND to AAPL. GS expecting better than consensus and guidance revenue and EPS for NSM with cost cutting measures ahead of plan. http://theskew.blogspot.com/2009/06/june-8-2009.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Roy Howard)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8712134747711579865.post-6293517233669316571Mon, 01 Jun 2009 14:12:00 +00002009-06-01T10:12:55.647-04:00 Important level coming up. http://theskew.blogspot.com/2009/06/sox-chart.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Roy Howard)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8712134747711579865.post-3237980064743141148Thu, 14 May 2009 13:21:00 +00002009-05-14T09:21:17.709-04:00It wasn’t just Ken Lewis with his arm twisted behind his back.  In mid-October, the Treasury told a panel of 9 major banks that they had to either voluntarily take capital infusions or they would be tied down and given them anyway. Zillow reports 74% of homeowners believe their home will hold or gain value over the next 12 months and 63% believe home values in their markets will increase orhttp://theskew.blogspot.com/2009/05/roundup-may-14-2009.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Roy Howard)1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8712134747711579865.post-102478239918323764Wed, 13 May 2009 13:30:00 +00002009-05-13T09:30:24.764-04:00Applied Materials reported better revenue, worse orders, guided to a midpoint of revs in-line with consensus and suggested orders will be up next quarter.  Typically these stocks trade on direction of orders.  At 2* book, Applied has already gravitated higher in anticipation of some recovery.  Watch the stock for stability around $11.  Below there is trouble. -- Intel said http://theskew.blogspot.com/2009/05/quick-and-dirty-may-13-2009.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Roy Howard)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8712134747711579865.post-8593328782404591906Tue, 12 May 2009 12:36:00 +00002009-05-12T08:36:15.995-04:00STEC finally reports a big number.  Consensus was 59 mil and 11 cents – they report 63.5 mil and 17 cents.  Gross margins were the big surprise, rising 7.5% sequentially to 39.8%.  The company indicated gross margins on ZeusIOPS, the drive used by their major OEMs for enterprise solutions, were above 40% and will head toward 50% next quarter.  Guidance of 68-70 mil and 20-22 http://theskew.blogspot.com/2009/05/stec-1q2009-results-stec.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Roy Howard)1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8712134747711579865.post-4725106322750164664Mon, 11 May 2009 13:30:00 +00002009-05-11T09:30:43.183-04:00  NAND contract pricing up 0-12% according to DRAMexchange.com.  The chart they posted of 16gb MLC NAND flash contract is pretty misleading. Here’s the chart zoomed out to put it into some context:   NAND pricing is definitively better over the last several months but their chart misleads by only showing the recent uptrend. --- Taiwan Semiconductor is considering a foray http://theskew.blogspot.com/2009/05/roundup-may-11-2009.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Roy Howard)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8712134747711579865.post-7393982610259752213Wed, 06 May 2009 20:55:00 +00002009-05-06T16:55:17.332-04:00Reports a nickel better on a negligible revenue beat.  Guides to down 17-20% – street is down 19%ish… so modestly better.  Commentary perhaps more important – customers saying they’re seeing a bottom and feeling better about stability… but that they’re at significantly lower levels.  Though this is a change from prior quarter commentaries that business was eroding and there was http://theskew.blogspot.com/2009/05/cisco-2q2009-results.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Roy Howard)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8712134747711579865.post-2078384799636264795Wed, 06 May 2009 17:16:00 +00002009-05-06T13:16:56.552-04:00Cisco reports tonight.  Here’s the quick and dirty consensus:   Q2-Jan.09 Q3-Apr.09 Q4-Jul.09 FY-Jul.09 Income Statementhttp://theskew.blogspot.com/2009/05/cisco-csco-cheat-sheet-2q2009.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Roy Howard)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8712134747711579865.post-5980161973587803150Wed, 06 May 2009 12:56:00 +00002009-05-06T09:11:14.879-04:00Outsourcing is going to get a lot more expensive in 2011 when Obama’s corporate tax expenditure changes kick in.  The cost of outsourcing ops will effectively double.  (indiatimes.com) Several (and probably all) large multinational corporations have their operations structured to take advantage of the tax codes Obama is looking to abolish.  (bloomberg.com) … will the http://theskew.blogspot.com/2009/05/i-have-idea-lets-outsource-toxic-assets.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Roy Howard)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8712134747711579865.post-8544001351415133650Tue, 05 May 2009 13:23:00 +00002009-05-05T09:23:22.591-04:00DRAM contract prices ticked up 5% pretty much across the board for the first half of May.  No update was posted for NAND contract.  (insye.com)  Due to spot cutbacks by Elpida and Powerchip, contract prices could rise 10-15% in aggregate for the month of May.  (dramexchange.com) LCD contract prices were 2-5% higher for the first half of May.  Notebook panels in 14 and 15http://theskew.blogspot.com/2009/05/roundup-may-5-2009.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Roy Howard)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8712134747711579865.post-7425322745274060637Mon, 04 May 2009 13:09:00 +00002009-05-04T09:09:40.280-04:00Govt postpones stress test results till late Thurs afternoon.  FT reports Citi and BAC are plotting to raise 10 bil a piece and that Wells Fargo and PNC are appealing initial findings that they require capital raises. Buffett said he applied his own stress tests to WFC and thinks they’re just fine. Buffett also said Berkshire Hathaway is likely to lose money on their credit http://theskew.blogspot.com/2009/05/roundup-may-4-2009-rimm-aapl-amzn-brka.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Roy Howard)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8712134747711579865.post-203522418599879820Thu, 30 Apr 2009 15:57:00 +00002009-04-30T12:00:14.510-04:00Making a lot of short sales here. FSLR 189, CAT 36.35, COH 25.4 ... A few others. Definitely uncomfortable but they feel stretched here and I believe they're vulnerable.Wish me luck.http://theskew.blogspot.com/2009/04/making-sales-market-cat-fslr-coh.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Roy Howard)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8712134747711579865.post-2254316927872159635Thu, 30 Apr 2009 12:15:00 +00002009-04-30T08:15:25.005-04:00First Solar reported revenues 20 mil better than expectations with a significant jump in gross margins to 56% versus expectations closer to 51%.  EPS were $1.99, better than mean expectations of $1.51 on the back of hedging gains and a one-time tax benefit.  The company reiterated their guidance of 1.9 – 2.0 bil for 2009 sales and generally sounded confident. Last quarter First Solar http://theskew.blogspot.com/2009/04/first-solar-1q2009-results-fslr.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Roy Howard)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8712134747711579865.post-660760989878469417Thu, 30 Apr 2009 12:14:00 +00002009-04-30T08:26:09.824-04:00 Estimated Reporting Date Symbol Revenue Estimate Current Q Operating Profit Estimate Current Q EPS Estimate Current Q EBITDA Estimate Current Q Revenue Estimate Next Q Sequential Revenue Growth Estimate, Percent Operating Profit Estimate Next Q EPS Estimate Next Q EBITDA Estimate Next Q Revenue Estimate Full http://theskew.blogspot.com/2009/04/earnings-estimate-cheat-sheet-april-30_30.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Roy Howard)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8712134747711579865.post-652405114193793718Tue, 28 Apr 2009 18:51:00 +00002009-04-28T14:52:35.351-04:0004/28/2009ACTL46.2 --0.00 --47.2 2.16%--0.02 --194.0 --0.21 --207.4 --0.87 --04/28/2009ANAD29.6 (16.2)(0.27)(8.4)33.7 14.01%(12.2)(0.18)(3.6)140.5 (45.7)(0.66)(10.5)146.4 (28.7)(0.41)7.6 04/28/2009AXE1,292.1 66.8 0.82 76.9 1,383.7 7.09%82.0 1.00 91.9 5,372.2 303.9 3.72 340.6 5,484.8 306.4 3.82 344.6 04/28/2009CTV752.6 46.2 0.10 65.8 846.2 12.44%92.8 0.52 120.1 3,343.2 350.6 1.87 440.5 3,436.0 http://theskew.blogspot.com/2009/04/earnings-estimate-cheat-sheet-april-28.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Roy Howard)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8712134747711579865.post-2056657772050416278Mon, 27 Apr 2009 17:45:00 +00002009-04-27T13:45:27.098-04:00 http://theskew.blogspot.com/2009/04/sox-flirting-with-channel-bottom-sox.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Roy Howard)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8712134747711579865.post-4612032352791711801Mon, 27 Apr 2009 13:19:00 +00002009-04-27T09:23:57.413-04:00* Goldman reiterates their sell on CRM, citing their small and medium business IT spending survey work suggesting enterprise seats overall will be down 1%.  Prior survey indicated up 6%.  Goldman believes renewal pricing rates are under pressure and that SAP’s upcoming earnings report will highlight the difficult enterprise software environment.  Their target price on CRM is $23 (http://theskew.blogspot.com/2009/04/roundup-april-27-2009.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Roy Howard)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8712134747711579865.post-5283241178336590318Fri, 24 Apr 2009 17:43:00 +00002009-04-24T13:43:28.810-04:00White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said stress tests on the biggest 19 U.S. banks will reveal a “gradation,” with some being “very, very healthy” and others needing assistance. *WSJ: Banks Have A Few Days To Dispute Assessments http://theskew.blogspot.com/2009/04/there-will-be-gradation-and-disputes.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Roy Howard)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8712134747711579865.post-4501865660018635195Fri, 24 Apr 2009 17:10:00 +00002009-04-24T13:10:03.762-04:00Apple stores are generating less sales for the company, leading Apple to open fewer stores.  250 stores with $5.9 mil sales a piece indicates about 1.475 billion dollars.  Apple did about 33 billion in sales last year so stores process less than 5% of sales.  The storefronts are also service centers, show rooms, and great advertising as they’re popular and cool.  Still, I’m http://theskew.blogspot.com/2009/04/apple-stores-are-selling-less.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Roy Howard)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8712134747711579865.post-125829455748769007Fri, 24 Apr 2009 17:03:00 +00002009-04-24T13:03:37.593-04:00The Fed wrote down 28-38% of the value of their Bear Stearns mortgage portfolio.  The rest of the banks are carrying the same securities at 90+% of their face values.  Who’s zooming who? Fannie and Freddie saw mortgage delinquencies rise 50%.  Banks are carrying most loans at 90+% of their face value. If the stress tests don’t make real assumptions about the starting capital, http://theskew.blogspot.com/2009/04/stress-tests-are-probably-meaningless.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Roy Howard)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8712134747711579865.post-1876479817993402122Fri, 24 Apr 2009 13:51:00 +00002009-04-24T09:51:14.519-04:00Seeing all the leadership come off early.  AAPL GOOG BIDU red.  Ford forecasting 2011 return to profitability?  2011?  Are they kidding me?  How’s May look, you clowns. Bank stress tests still going to start leaking soon.  Good or bad market vulnerable to profit taking and/or bad news. Have to sell here. http://theskew.blogspot.com/2009/04/bad-action-market.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Roy Howard)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8712134747711579865.post-2461835981988606268Fri, 24 Apr 2009 13:20:00 +00002009-04-24T09:20:24.417-04:00Juniper (JNPR) reported in-line with their preannounced revenue guidance of 765 million.  The company indicated they saw increasing signs of stability and believe carrier capex budgets are firming up.  They exited the quarter with a book to bill over 1.  Despite the company’s talk of a more stable environment, pricing is under severe pressure and I believe capex budgets may in facthttp://theskew.blogspot.com/2009/04/quick-earnings-recap-42409-jnpr-msft.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Roy Howard)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8712134747711579865.post-5278235160752219789Thu, 23 Apr 2009 17:21:00 +00002009-04-23T13:21:34.736-04:00Here’s what I don’t understand.  Why is this on CNBC ALL DAY LONG? I read about this in the WSJ over two and a half months ago.  Here’s the post. Weird. http://theskew.blogspot.com/2009/04/lewis-in-federal-headlock-bac.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Roy Howard)0