tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-59013511609709311692026-02-25T18:07:00.217-05:00Investing in the Circles We Run AroundRobert P. Goodmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08509429047201669989noreply@blogger.comBlogger237125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5901351160970931169.post-78345926782871126452025-09-09T09:54:00.004-04:002025-09-21T10:04:53.845-04:00

    Once again, we’re facing a market that seems content to lure buyers on the notion that if the economy is growing that’s a reason to buy, and if an economy is slowing, the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates and that’s a reason to buy. When economies grow businesses invest, GDP stays firm, consumer spending rises, and optimism prevails. When an economy peaks, it’s usually

Robert P. Goodmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08509429047201669989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5901351160970931169.post-24503715633545713402023-10-25T16:15:00.001-04:002023-10-29T11:13:33.613-04:00

 But that doesn’t stop AI from saying it is. Just a reminder that I’m back in the office and navigating the tidal wave of uncertainties that have captivated the markets recently. Earnings are adding to the volatility, stocks with favorable earnings curiously go down and unfavorable earnings, but positive guidance, they go up, and the rest are just earnings and the market seems too distracted

Robert P. Goodmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08509429047201669989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5901351160970931169.post-32373833252007430962023-09-22T17:00:00.001-04:002023-10-29T11:12:01.968-04:00

I’ve frequently written about technical analysis as an important piece in my overall strategy, to buy low and sell high. The interest in this form of analysis began during my early years as a Treasury trader, and has never been more interesting, and important, than in today’s AI world. The reason is that AI both possesses information that it’s been fed externally and through machine learning

Robert P. Goodmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08509429047201669989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5901351160970931169.post-85525808266216216652023-09-01T16:14:00.001-04:002023-10-29T11:08:45.619-04:00

 Markets & The Economy This week the markets began with a bang, cleaning up much of August losses. After last week’s comments by Fed Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, the markets appear to be responding to a speech, that In my opinion, seemed a bit hawkish, as suggested below.  “Although inflation has moved down from its peak—a welcome development—it remains too

Robert P. Goodmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08509429047201669989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5901351160970931169.post-75262433058809246702023-08-17T16:54:00.000-04:002023-10-29T11:09:28.315-04:00

 It’s been over a week since my last comments, and the correction I’ve been waiting patiently for has arrived and taken the broad indexes in more interesting territory. Namely, the said indexes are no longer over bought, but they also aren’t yet oversold, but they’re getting there. So, what happened?  Economics In the past two weeks the economic data showed an economy stronger than

Robert P. Goodmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08509429047201669989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5901351160970931169.post-68685698739570111632023-08-07T16:18:00.000-04:002023-10-29T11:10:01.264-04:00

 Most weekends, I confess to engaging in self-composed homework. It’s usually updating my technical analysis research platforms, putting the puzzle of economic data into perspective, and researching the globe for new ideas and any connection those ideas may have to our investing interests. This is what I stumbled on.  Last week earnings results continued to surprise on the upside. Some

Robert P. Goodmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08509429047201669989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5901351160970931169.post-47262775281134458542023-07-13T17:00:00.001-04:002023-07-16T10:20:01.585-04:00

 This week saw the release of inflation data, both production prices and consumer prices. Both showed modestly lower results than the consensus expected. Good news for the markets, to be sure, but I welcome doubt as a crucial endeavor in researching a predictable outcome. That’s because the markets are never finished, the evidence of inflation moving lower is persuasive, but my preferred

Robert P. Goodmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08509429047201669989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5901351160970931169.post-3474924725153879302023-06-23T16:58:00.001-04:002023-07-16T10:17:22.348-04:00

“If you do not speak English, I am at your disposal with 187 other languages along with their various dialects and sub-tongues...”  -Robby the Robot from the Sci-Fi movie Forbidden Planet 1956  I was asked last week about my reference to a Holodeck. Basically, the reference to the Star Trek phenomenon and the sudden emergence of Augmented Reality and its coincidental connection. In my

Robert P. Goodmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08509429047201669989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5901351160970931169.post-54735312595452317492023-06-09T16:35:00.001-04:002023-06-10T10:17:10.942-04:00

An occurrence that has historical precedence is that the economy has slowed down, or slid into recession 6-7 months after the Fed has stopped raising interest rates. Therefore, the optimism that is projected in the media knows that even if the economy slows down, the outcome would signal a near end of the bear market experienced over the las 18 months. In short, the markets, in their tendency to

Robert P. Goodmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08509429047201669989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5901351160970931169.post-5323953974053502312023-06-01T16:35:00.001-04:002023-06-05T15:21:33.143-04:00

 Much of the media rhetoric yesterday focused on the fighting between democrats and Republican, and I couldn’t help wondering if that circumstance is what partisan politics is all about, no side gets what they want, maybe, except us? Today the Senate takes up the vote and, in my opinion, it will be more contentious. Whereas the House didn’t really debate the Debt Ceiling Bill, but rather

Robert P. Goodmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08509429047201669989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5901351160970931169.post-48171282133330780502023-05-19T16:16:00.001-04:002023-05-23T15:55:25.685-04:00

 Today’s resources are starting to shrink as AI comes to rescue us from chaos. Or so goes the narrative, depending on your source. I bring this up because in my opinion, the 2006 introduction from Google (GOOGL) of the algorithm aimed at aggregating the news to accommodate, peoples wants over their needs, has carved out division as the outcome. And given its suitability towards monetization

Robert P. Goodmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08509429047201669989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5901351160970931169.post-15441453886614928812023-05-05T16:09:00.008-04:002023-05-23T15:53:19.619-04:00

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 253,000 in AprilFebruary was revised down by 78,000, from +326,000 to +248,000 (-24%)March was revised down by 71,000, from +236,000 to +165,000 (-30%)  The broad indexes showed welcome relief this past week and while much can be attributed to the Fed increase in interest rates it was the stronger than expected unemployment data that

Robert P. Goodmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08509429047201669989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5901351160970931169.post-50907517591411134612023-04-27T16:34:00.001-04:002023-05-23T15:57:31.929-04:00

 Ten years ago, I first read about UBI, a welfare proposal that had gained some academic, and even political interest until the pandemic introduced a better method of wealth distribution, stimulus. In my opinion the concept of the wealth effect as a tendency to spend more when an individual feels financially secure, is at the core of our current inflationary environment. I bring this up

Robert P. Goodmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08509429047201669989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5901351160970931169.post-36702556084124590282023-04-14T16:30:00.001-04:002023-04-15T10:50:38.448-04:00

Closer to Certainty  Some people are intuitively negative. This is driven by the same trends in history, politics, economics, international relations and popular culture. Check negative to each of these trends and naysayer predictions go wild. The problem, in my opinion, is the common trap relying solely on memory and hindsight without accounting for judgmental bias, is the basis of

Robert P. Goodmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08509429047201669989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5901351160970931169.post-73735941424237809642023-03-31T16:44:00.001-04:002023-04-03T11:08:52.525-04:00

 Follow the Light  “If you can't explain it to a six-year-old, then you don't understand it yourself” -Albert Einstein  Some have heard me comment on my experience in knowing that when I’ve read something written by an academic, my frequent need is often, to read it twice. This is because academic grammar, and the use of syntax as an aesthetic, often navigates the ability to

Robert P. Goodmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08509429047201669989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5901351160970931169.post-31149470776700617662023-02-03T16:40:00.001-05:002023-02-05T10:02:56.910-05:00

 Having spent most of my career working on the institutional and corporate side of asset management, organization and focus have been handy skills. However, since I’ve come into a more retail setting, I’ve observed another skill, monetizing the hook. The hook is the one idea to hang the direction of the capital markets on, for a single day. I’ve also observed that this skill has created a

Robert P. Goodmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08509429047201669989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5901351160970931169.post-87335225385906306222023-01-20T16:27:00.001-05:002023-01-23T10:35:28.072-05:00

 Employee layoffs have been growing more frequent, especially from companies in the Technology Sector. Some may recall, during the pandemic I wrote about a growing incentive to reimagine the corporate responsibility. The narrative was aggressively pushed by Marc Benioff of Salesforce (CRM), highlighting the goal to hire aggressively, pay handsomely and provide added capital to the working

Robert P. Goodmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08509429047201669989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5901351160970931169.post-50985146646812054002023-01-12T16:36:00.001-05:002023-01-18T20:50:59.794-05:00

“When I look at the market behavior today, I'm a pessimist … but when I look at market behavior over history, I’m an optimist” The opening of the year has been a good one for the markets. Rallies, even modest ones, are welcome, and the reason is the focus on inflation. The problem as I see it, ignores the fact that the markets left the previous year oversold, and a rally can be expected, just as

Robert P. Goodmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08509429047201669989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5901351160970931169.post-14662121806912073642022-12-09T16:33:00.002-05:002022-12-10T11:16:11.380-05:00

     Today the markets received data on the Producer Price Index (PPI) and without going into detail the result was, to say the least, open to interpretation. Expectations were for the month over month data to increase .2%, but came in up .4%. The year over year number was expected to be 5.9%, but came in at 6.2%. Well, the markets took the data to show that inflation has increased

Robert P. Goodmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08509429047201669989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5901351160970931169.post-25582738787724295702022-12-02T16:16:00.001-05:002022-12-06T16:19:42.682-05:00

When I entered the asset management arm of my career, I was focused on the bond markets. The process of research and analysis that accompanies the bond market is different than that which covers the stock market. This is because when researching and analyzing a stock one focuses on the fundamentals of the that company, with bonds, the focus is on interest rates and the economic fundamentals are

Robert P. Goodmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08509429047201669989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5901351160970931169.post-68628784469174922872022-11-18T16:22:00.001-05:002022-11-22T08:48:25.343-05:00

Way back in the 1990’s when I was managing capital for a corporate pension department, I used to enjoy reading the annual reports that companies, whose stock was held by our firm, would mail to us as a hard copy. One particular report that stood out to me was from the Microsoft company (MSFT) whose products, especially Office, have been central to my desktop organization to this day. What

Robert P. Goodmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08509429047201669989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5901351160970931169.post-25688414023956704472022-11-11T16:40:00.003-05:002022-11-12T09:14:45.042-05:00

The broad indexes moved higher this week, led by the technology sector that has a woeful year, to say the least. But coming off yesterday’s release of CPI inflation data (Consumer Price Index) the reaction was for the indexes to move sharply higher, and the interpretation of that data is at the root. Our favorite Algochums obviously found the data proof that inflation has peaked and is going

Robert P. Goodmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08509429047201669989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5901351160970931169.post-31310008498829975752022-11-03T16:20:00.001-04:002022-11-04T10:45:18.621-04:00

 It appears that Jerome Powell has found a new strategy, joining the ranks of social media as a last resort. This week the Federal Reserve Board voted to increase interest rates another .75%, but it was his comments and the responses to a variety of trigger worthy questions that brought out the click bait. “Job gains have been robust”, ouch, “the unemployment rate has remained low”, ouch, “

Robert P. Goodmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08509429047201669989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5901351160970931169.post-48970197748108576462022-10-28T16:28:00.001-04:002022-11-04T10:43:03.282-04:00

A lot happened this week as the stock market, led higher by the Dow Jones Industrials was followed by the quarterly earnings data from big tech. Not all of it good for the market as the familiar technology names, Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) released earnings that weren’t what was expected by the analysts. Even our friend Apple (AAPL) came in slightly weaker, but managed

Robert P. Goodmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08509429047201669989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5901351160970931169.post-75200965035016504812022-10-21T16:37:00.001-04:002022-10-23T11:17:15.287-04:00

 This week saw the broad indexes rise enough to take us in the direction of being overbought. Much of the activity has been on the back of economics, the Fed, and earnings. While we welcome favorable earnings where we share them, overall, this earnings season has been mixed, with current data being good alongside of cautious future guidance. Likewise, analysts are okay with maintaining buys

Robert P. Goodmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08509429047201669989noreply@blogger.com0