With Round 2 set to kick off Tuesday Night Gus Elvin and Bryan Doherty look at the four second round matchups and talk some keys to each series as well as give picks. Can either underdog knock off the #1 seed? Also, how do the Sharks keep momentum going after a long layoff? With Boston and New York both coming off tough 7 game series, does either team have an edge?

Gus Elvin and Bryan Doherty talk Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. After the two Bruins fans recover from the Bs comeback win they talk about just how Boston pulled it off while also looking back at the eight first round series and who were the heroes and goats of the first round.

The key in any top 25 poll is understanding the premise on which the poll is based because not all top 25 polls are built the same way. Some people choose to rank teams 1-25 based on where they think teams will be ranked at year’s end. If they think a team will lose 5 games they won’t rank them. While that may seem logical I’ve never been a proponent of that style of poll and it has never been, nor will ever be, how I choose to do my top 25 polls. My polls reflect the 25 teams entering 2013 who I think are the top 25 teams on a neutral field if the country played a round-robin. If a team is likely to max out at 7 wins that doesn’t give me the urge to rank a nine-win team over them if the nine-win team is from a much weaker league. With that covered, let us continue the top 25 for 2013 as the official kickoff of the off season coverage here at The Sports Headquarters.

*Returning Starters Figures from Phil Steele’s Blog

Teams already ranked:

#25. Fresno State Bulldogs
#24 Vanderbilt Commodores
#23 USC Trojans
#22 Miami Hurricanes
#21 Ole Miss Rebels
#20 Boise State Broncos
#19 Wisconsin Badgers
#18 Oklahoma Sooners
#17 Florida State Seminoles
#16 Northwestern Wildcats
#15 Oklahoma State Cowboys
#14 Louisville Cardinals
#13 Florida Gators
#12 TCU Horned Frogs 
#11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
#10 LSU Tigers
#9 Clemson Tigers
#8 South Carolina Gamecocks
#7 Texas Longhorns 
#6 Georgia Bulldogs
#5 Texas A&M Aggies
#4 Stanford Cardinal

Coming in at #3….

Oregon Ducks 

2012 Record: 12-1

Conference Finish: Tied for 1st in PAC-12 North (Lost Tiebreaker to Stanford)

Bowl: Won Fiesta Bowl 35-17 over Kansas State

2013 Returning Starters: 8 offense, 7 defense

2013 Offense

The last two years I put teams in my top 10 that lost a coach in the offseason and both went up in smokes. In 2011 it was Ohio State and last season it was Arkansas. Difference in this case is both of those years my top 25 was finished before the coach left so I didn’t know they’d be without their head coach when I gave them the ranking (which wouldn’t have changed Arkansas much, would’ve changed Ohio State.) This year however there is no confusion as I know Chip Kelly is gone and I’m still giving Oregon my number three ranking entering 2013. To be honest….I’d have them 2nd ahead of the next team if Chip Kelly was still there. Yet despite my confidence the team will be fine and succeed with the same dominant offense under Mark Helfrich, I’d be lying if I said there weren’t some concerns. Still, the offense is loaded, the defense has the potential to drop a little but Oregon is more than capable of overcoming it and frankly I think other teams below this spot have their own concerns that make Oregon at number three legitimate.

A lot of talk has gone on this year about whether Marcus Mariota is the best quarterback the Oregon offense has had since Kelly has been there. Frankly, it shouldn’t be a question, he absolutely is and yet will only be a sophomore in 2013. Mariota’s blazing speed with his legs and arm that knows how to make all the simplistic throws the Oregon offense asks its quarterback to make are what has him so efficient early in his career. Yet its his ability to make tough throws and down field ones that separate him from his predecessors. Like I’ve done in other teams’ top 25 writeups, I could go on and on about Mariota but anyone who follows the sport knows what he brings and recognizes he’s likely a Heisman contender this fall. The position as always to keep an eye on with the Ducks is the skill positions around the QB and once again Oregon is loaded.

The run game of Oregon is obviously the prominent part of the offense with another top five national ranking last season at over 300 yards per game. Deanthony Thomas headlines the backs (serving as a hybrid receiver/back) and like Mariota if you’ve watched Oregon in the last two years its hard to miss him, unless you blinked. One of the most explosive players in all of college football, regressing slightly last year in production but showing his value by leading the team in catches and carrying the ball 92 times. Helfrich knows from experience to get the ball in Thomas’ hands early and often and it’s basically production that doesn’t even have to be accounted for at this point from a preview standpoint because you know it is coming. Byron Marshall was stuck in line behind Thomas and Kenjon Barner last year but could take on a much larger role in 2013 in hopes of becoming the next great Oregon running back. The sophomore’s five yards per carry last year is a little low by Oregon standards so it will be worth seeing if he can turn into more of a home run hitter for the Ducks but coming off a year where he got 87 carries, he is a candidate to break out if Thomas isn’t moved prominently to running back which I’d have to imagine the Ducks wouldn’t do. Thomas Tyner is the last name to watch as the highly touted freshman wound up with the Ducks after a bit of a waffling period and garnered huge attention nation wide in the recruiting circles. There’s no telling how much of a role he’ll get right away but for those who have seen him (as I’ve said before, I will never watch HS tape unless someone pays me to), I’ve yet to see a negative report.

The wide receivers and tight ends are essentially all back giving Mariota a full cast of weapons that he utilized to the tune of 32 touchdowns last season. Beyond Thomas the Ducks welcome back Josh Huff and tight end Coly Lyerla, the two other prominent weapons Mariota used in the passing game. Huff serves as the down field threat averaging over 15 yards per catch and Lyerla (while averaging similar YPC) is a weapon over the middle of the field and inside the redzone. In all eight of the team’s nine top pass catchers from last year are back with Barner representing one of the two that departed. The strength of this offense as long as it keeps using the system that’s led it to all its success will be the running game, but this core is experienced and dangerous and with the progression Mariota likely will show his sophomore year, combined with his arm makes this a potentially prolific unit that keeps defenses heads spinning.

The offensive line has three experienced returnees but otherwise will be relying on replacements and perhaps even some new freshmen. Oregon has enough skill talent to overcome offensive line problems but as Stanford showed in the game last year, an elite defensive front could give the Ducks trouble. With the Cardinal game later in the year this group as time to mix and match pairings until it finds the right core to go forward with. Anything less than another juggernaught offense that keeps the scoreboard spiraling scores would be a shock and as seems to be the case each year, by December we’ll be forgetting all about Kenjon Barner and talking about the next “break out” Oregon star.

2013 Defense

The Ducks weren’t all that stout defensively in 2012 finishing slightly above the middle of the pack nationally and yet still won the Fiesta Bowl in blowout fashion and were a handful of plays away from probably playing for the national title. To say Oregon can get by without a great defense in 2013 is an understatement and thus makes the losses the team has less crippling then they would be for most other teams. With that said, some playmakers still sit on this defense looking to help the Ducks reclaim a league title that they had had a stranglehold on before losing it last season.

Dion Jordan was the high profile name on the defensive line last season and followed it up by being one of the top picks in this April’s NFL draft. Nonetheless his production in 2012, while decent, was far from numbers that are impossible to replace in 2013. Jordan finished the year with 44 tackles including 10.5 for a loss to go along with five sacks. Taylor Hart comes back as last year’s most productive pass rusher on the defensive line after recording 11 tackles for a loss and eight sacks. Joining him will be the likes of Wade Keliikipi, Arik Armstead and Tony Washington. The depth on defensive line may be a concern going into 2013 as beyond the top four-five guys, there’s not much proven production behind that group, however just about all the freshman joining next year’s team won’t arrive till this summer so perhaps someone comes along in summer camp to add to this group.

The linebacker unit took two significant hits with the loss of both Michael Clay (not that one Coley) and Kiko Alonso. The two were the top tacklers on the defense a year ago while combining for 24 tackles for a loss and four sacks. However the unit isn’t completely lost as both Derrick Malone Jr. and Boseko Lokombo are back after making respectable contributions at linebacker last season. The two upper classmen will be the leaders of a defensive front seven that has enough question marks to be concerned and will need to be at its best vs a physical front of Stanford which as I mentioned in Stanford’s preview has a good chance to determine the PAC-12 North winner and ultimately who plays for the PAC-12 Championship.

In the secondary the Ducks have their most impactful defensive playmaker in Ifo Ekpre-Olomu who did a little bit of everything last season with 63 tackles, good for fourth on the team, as well four interceptions (one returned for a score) and a team high six forced fumbles. As a whole almost every relevant player from the secondary is back but still this is a core that needs to improve after finishing 52nd in the country in pass defense a year ago. With the limited prolific passing attacks in PAC-12 play the Ducks may be able to get by without a great pass defense for most of the year but in a sport where one loss can take you out of national title contention, all it takes is one ugly showing from the secondary and Oregon could be done. They have the parts coming back to improve but they also relied quite a bit on interceptions a season ago.

The Ducks defense was mediocre in a number of categories but ranked very good in a few key ones that made up for their mediocrity in others. The Ducks were very strong in red zone defense, third down defense and turnovers (#1 in college football). If they drop off a bit in any of those, will this defense find itself in more shootouts? There should be caution when looking at this defense but with the offense the Ducks have panic simply isn’t a reasonable word to use.

Schedule

First lets just state that while we await the response from the NCAA in light of Oregon’s recruiting issues it’s entirely possible Oregon won’t even factor into this season if they are given a bowl ban like USC, Ohio State and Penn State were in recent years. Still it’s not fair to assume that would be the case so we’ll look at it like Oregon is going to be fine and eligible for all postseason games. Though Virginia and Tennessee are big-time programs and beat scheduling an FCS opponent, reality is neither are expected to be all that great in 2013 and shouldn’t give Oregon problems in either case. If Oregon isn’t 7-0 going into the UCLA game it would be a major surprise because offensively they should simply overwhelm anyone on the schedule up to that point. In the final five games is where it gets interesting. UCLA, at Stanford, at Arizona and Oregon State all figure to present a challenge and if Arizona lives up to what some think they’re capable of, it would be two very tough road games for the Ducks near the end of  the season.

It’s worth noting Oregon ducks USC and Arizona State from the South and gets UCLA and Oregon State at home. The schedule is more favorable than Stanford’s and makes that Stanford game all the more important. Stanford can afford a loss there a lot less than Oregon. However the two teams figure to be the class of the PAC-12 again and expecting the other to lose twice seems a little bit far fetched so as has been said before, you can treat that game as just about a de-facto PAC-12 North title game. Of course, again, that’s all if the NCAA allows it by not banning Oregon from any postseasons.

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