The Spread Zone

NFL Picks ATS: Super Bowl XLIX Patriots vs Seahawks

2015-01-30T10:25:00.002-08:00

Season to Date: 48-42 ATS

Top Picks: 10-6 ATS

Playoffs: 7-3 ATS

Note: This will be the final post of the season for The Spread Zone. I use the open-ended "the season" because I've always been more of a "See ya later" guy than a "Goodbye Girl," and I have a feeling - although I don't anticipate returning for next year's regular season - that Marco and I might open to a regular post-season gig. Let's see what happens next. In the meantime, please accept a big thank you to the best readers on the Inter-Web who stuck with the us through all the highs and lows of the past three years. It feels really good to bounce back this year and finish on a high, leaving a wake of yet another dominant post-season. You're the best, guys and girls.

At long last and with seemingly less hype (probably because I've been watching college and pro basketball rather than ESPN), Super Bowl XYZPDQ has finally arrived. While the Conference Championships left fans of deflation elated and other fans just plain deflated, the Super Bowl match-up is probably the one everyone was hoping to see. The new king of the castle, Russell Wilson, and his historically good defense goes up against former king, Tom Brady, and his historically good hair line.

Honestly, I don't even think I can sugarcoat this bad boy. To Marco and me, this is the biggest "Duh" in Super Bowl history. We are not fans of either team, we really have no horse in the race, which makes us confident that we're going to have our second straight 8-3 ATS post-season and bring The Spread Zone's Super Bowl record to 3-0 ATS.

Let's just talk about the facts - or as we affectionately call them:

Twelve Reasons to take the 'Hawks

REASON #1: Two weeks ago Seattle had one of its worst fifty-six and half minute stretches they've had in the past two years.

REASON #2: New England is coming off one of the more convincing Conference Championship games in recent history.

REASON #3: The American public has the attention span of a goldfish with 71%+ backing New England in the wake of the Conference Championships. No way Vegas eats that much in losses. Anyone remember how Seattle was giving up 6 points/game prior to their mental lapse against Green Bay?

REASON #4: Favorites of less than 3 points in the Super Bowl are 3-8 ATS. Pats opened at -1.

REASON #5: In Conference Championship and Super Bowl rounds, teams coming off a 38+ point win at home are now 5-18-1 ATS. Again, this applies to New England.

REASON #6: Since 1978, defending champs who return to the Super Bowl are 5-2 SU/4-3 ATS.

REASON #7: Underdogs have covered 6 of the last 7 Super Bowls and won 4 of the last 5 SU.

REASON #8: In their 5 Super Bowl appearances under Belichick, New England is 1-4 ATS, covering only their first.

REASON #9: The Patriots are 1-4 ATS this year against top ten run defenses and 1-6 ATS against top ten run offenses. Guess who falls into both categories.

REASON #10: The Patriots are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 on natural grass while the Seahawks are 10-3 ATS in their last 13.

REASON #11: If Marco can still play Madden with his recently dislocated shoulder - and boy can he - then you'd better believe Chancelor and Sherman will not be slowed by their injuries.

REASON #12: The 12th man travels.

The way we see it, this has all the makings of a repeat performance. Last year Denver arrived at the Super Bowl calm, cool, collected, convincing the world their offensive prowess would be enough to beat any team. That game ended in the first series. We don't think it will be that quick in Arizona, but rest assured the Seattle Seahawks defense will assert itself early and often into this game and by Sunday night everyone will be asking if this is the best defensive team the NFL has ever seen. It's as simple as Newton's first law of physics: An object in motion tends to stay in motion until it runs into a Seahawk.

PICKS: Seattle and the UNDER 47.5

May the Spread Be With You All,

Vinny and Marco

Reminders

1. Check out our friends at 1Vice. Click on the icon to the right and tell them Vinny and Marco sent you. They have terrific bonuses, fast payouts, and excellent customer service.

2. It's not too late to send us coffee. We'll need caffeine for the Divisional Round and Conference Championships. It might even be a tax write off. Just click on the Coffee for Vinny and Marco button and tell us you love us. We love you.

NFL Picks: Conference Championships 2015

2015-01-17T08:41:00.000-08:00

Season to Date: 47-41 ATS

Top Picks: 10-6 ATS

Playoffs: 6-2 ATS

So much for parity in the NFL this year. As we enter the Conference Championships we are left with the following:

1. The most storied franchise in football whose legendary coach has his name on the Super Bowl trophy.
2. The current team that not only holds said trophy but looks to be on their way to keeping it.
3. The most consistent team in football since the millennium.
4. The team that missed the playoffs once and received the best quarterback the league has seen #1 and #3 entered the league.

If there is a Cinderella at the ball this year, it's the Indianapolis Colts who entered the playoffs as an offensive powerhouse but have used terrific defensive performances to dismantle the Broncos and the Bengals. The Colts now head to Gillette Stadium to face the Patriots who are playing in their fourth consecutive Conference Championship but remain Super Bowl-less since 2003. In the NFC, we have the Legend of Boom and their pretty amazing big-play offense hosting the Green Bay Packers and their future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Were this game being played in Lambeau, it would be epic. In Seattle, we're not so sure. Let's get to the picks so I can hit the road and spend the weekend at Marco's rooting for the underdogs.

Conference Championship Picks

So far Marco and I have picked 7 underdogs and 1 favorite. Dogs are 5-3 ATS, and since we nailed all five and the one fav, we're 6-2 ATS. Our strategy is not changing this week. If you're not sure which dog is going to cover, take both.

Indianapolis Colts (+7) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Bill Bellichick is 5-3 SU in championship games, but 3-5 ATS - keep in mind he's 0-5 ATS since his last Super Bowl. The Pats are also 0-5 ATS in title games after scoring 24+ in the divisional round. This is looking great for Indy. Want some more confidence boosting stats? Conference championship teams off road wins preceded by home wins (Indy) are 8-4 SU/10-2 ATS since 1998, including 4-0 ATS as an underdog. PLUS - Andrew Luck is 5-1 ATS against teams with a winning percentage greater than .750. That's enough for us to say - Go Indy. Take the points, bet the money line, and watch a new era of QB take the reigns of the NFL. We also expect Indy's defense to earn another UNDER for totals bettors. Colts +7 and the UNDER.

Green Bay Packers (+7.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: Every now and again Marco and I go with a heart pick over a head pick. There are really no good reasons to take Green Bay except - they're Green Bay, c'mon man, 60% of Aaron Rodgers is like 500% of 70% Cam Newton. Unfortunately, the Packers defense is like 30% of Carolina's. But let's ignore that. Green Bay has offensive weapons, and while the Panthers stayed in last week's game with their defense, the Packers should be able to put more points on the board. On a neutral field, Seattle's probably only 2 points better than GB. Five and half for home field advantage gives us some value on the dog. Let's not get into the fact that Seattle is undefeated against Super Bowl winning QBs since Carrol took the reins or the fact that they're the only team left in the playoffs to keep teams under 100 yards rushing/game or the fact that Russell Wilson is like 6,000 and 3 at home since arriving in the league. Let's just enjoy an instant classic as these two teams provide more points than anyone expected. Take Green Bay and the Over (as 10 of 15 championship games with a total set at 46+ have gone over).

Good luck and May the Spreads Be With You,

Vinny and Marco

Reminders

1. Check out our friends at 1Vice. Click on the icon to the right and tell them Vinny and Marco sent you. They have terrific bonuses, fast payouts, and excellent customer service.

2. It's not too late to send us coffee. We'll need caffeine for the Divisional Round and Conference Championships. It might even be a tax write off. Just click on the Coffee for Vinny and Marco button and tell us you love us. We love you.

NFL Divisional Round Picks ATS: All Dogs All Day

2015-01-09T09:38:00.001-08:00

Season to Date: 44-40 ATS

Top Picks: 10-6 ATS

(Not So) Wild Card Weekend: 3-1 ATS

Oh the irony of sports gambling. If you look at last week's picks I believe my direct quote for the Arizona (+5.5) pick was "If we were ranking, this would be our number one pick." As it turns out, it was our only pick that went down in a blaze of the most un-glorious quarterback play I've ever seen. It's a good thing Ryan Lindley studied "back-up plans" at San Diego State.

...I'm better at than playing football. Oh good, sounds like he has options.

This week we hope to continue our historic post-season success with some intriguing divisional round match-ups. As mentioned, the Panthers won in dominant fashion and now head to Seattle with a five-game winning streak against a Seattle team on a six game win streak. Similarly, Sunday's NFC match-up boasts an undefeated road team in the Cowboys against an undefeated home team in the Packers. Awesome, right? And still no comments from our old friend MaChez. Where for art thou buddy? Meanwhile, over in the AFC we have a rivalry game between Joe Cool and just plain Cool along with a battle between former Colts vs future Colts legends. What a weekend. Let's get pickin'. For our good friend John M. and his pool, we're projecting the O/U's, too.

Saturday's Games

Baltimore Ravens (+7) over the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Talk about your definition of road warriors. Time and time again we've seen the Baltimore Ravens enter the playoffs as a lower seed and time and time again they find ways to get the W's. As the only road team to escape the Wild Card round, the Ravens now take their show to Gilette stadium where they face the New England Patriots. No doubt the Pats will be rested and ready, but if you watched Joe Flacco - with all the time in the world - throwing pretty spirals down the field against the Steelers, you can't pass up an entire touchdown. New England might advance, but we're predicting a score somewhere around 24-21. Take the RAVENS and the UNDER.

STAT BACKER: Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last five playoff road games while New England is 0-3 ATS in their last three playoff games against the Ravens, 3-10 ATS in their last 13 playoff games, and even 3-8 ATS in their last 11 playoff games at home. So much for home field advantage.

Carolina Panthers (+11.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: A closer look at the Panthers recent win streak shows that they did it against teams with a combined 33-47 record while Seattle compiled theirs against almost all winning teams. Couple that with the fact that Cam Newton has only led one touchdown drive in his last against the 'Hawks and their defense (which has only given up 39 points in their past 6 games), and our Panthrers pick looks as bold as my aging head. Oh wait, that's bald. Nonetheless, eleven plus points in a playoff game between two teams that play tight defense and close games is too much to pass up. An early mistake or a well-designed opening drive (you know Seattle will defer if they win the toss) and we're looking at 18+. Take CAROLINA but fade the public, John M., and back the OVER. Seattle wins 28-17.

STAT BACKER: The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road playoff games. Who cares because this probably dates back to the Delhomme era. The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five playoff games. We'll call that a wash and not remind you that the last six teams to finish the year under .500 and win a Wild Card game then lost in the divisional round by double digits. We think the trend continues, but we'll still win by half a point.

Sunday's Games

Dallas Cowboys (+5.5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS: The Dallas Cowboys got that first round monkey off their backs thanks to their defense and a very questionable non-call by the referees. Nonetheless, they now pack that defense and hit the road where they haven't lost since last year. The Packers are a seemingly unstoppable force at home, but we think Dallas can keep up with them offensively and slow them down on offense. Back DALLAS and the UNDER here.

STAT BACKER: The Pack are always a big pubic play and this game is no exception. With 60% of the bets on Green Bay, the line has still dropped. We're rollin' with the sharps and the Cowboys 7-1 ATS road record.

Indianapolis Colts (+7) over DENVER BRONCOS: That's right - all dogs this weekend. It's the football fans in us. We want close games and we believe we're going to get them. There is no quit in the Indy team, so at the very least we see this game being covered with a late back-door touchdown. Take the COLTS and the OVER (the public has this one right).

STAT BACKER: Peyton Manning is just 10-10 ATS in his last 20 post-season games and Denver is a paltry 1-4 ATS in their last 5.

Good luck and May the Spreads Be With You,

Vinny and Marco

Reminders
1. Check out our friends at 1Vice. Click on the icon to the right and tell them Vinny and Marco sent you. They have terrific bonuses, fast payouts, and excellent customer service.

2. It's not too late to send us coffee. We'll need caffeine for the Divisional Round and Conference Championships. It might even be a tax write off. Just click on the Coffee for Vinny and Marco button and tell us you love us. We love you.

NFL Picks: Wild Card Weekend Picks ATS

2015-01-02T08:57:00.001-08:00

Man, how the mighty have fallen the past few weeks. After jumping out to an entirely unrealistic 9-2 ATS start with our number one picks along with a sizable cushion on our overall numbers, our final stats on our final season are as follows:

Season to Date: 41-39 ATS

Top Picks: 10-6 ATS

Fortunately, the post-season has always been kind to us here at TSZ. In fact, prior to our first season with TSZ, we rolled through the playoffs and into a New York Giants Super Bowl with a pool-winning 9-2 ATS record. It was the inspiration for the The Spread Zone and the beginning of a beautiful and bouncy three year relationship with blogging, betting, and bridging connections between gambler's around the world. During the past two post-seasons we were unable to match our initial success, but have yet to have a losing second season.

Wild Card Weekend Picks ATS

Truth be told, we've been watching so much college football I haven't had much chance to research picks or follow NFL story lines. What college ball has taught us, however, is that it's a great year to bet the underdogs and a better year to just watch some terrific football games. Let's hope the NFL matches up.

SATURDAY

Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) over CAROLINA PANTHERS: Wow - talk about an overreaction to last week's drubbing of the Atlanta Falcons. This line is ridiculous. That was the Atlanta Falcons. They are the equivalent of a defensive sieve. The Cards defense will not only keep them in this game, but will remind Cam Newton that he's injured with an early sack or two. Don't be surprised if Superman sits out the second half out while the Cards win this one straight up. If we were ranking picks - this would be #1.

Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS: The history between these two teams has not been kind to the Ravens in the post-season, but if you look at the trends overall, they play close games. Granted the Steelers are now a pass-first team, but the injury of Le'Veon Bell will be just enough to keep the Ravens close. We'll take the points and won't be surprised if Joe Flacco has one of those games he's known for in the post-season.

SUNDAY

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3.5) over Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals probably feel like they lucked out not having to play the Steelers again, but Luck will have something to say about that this weekend. This game will be over by halftime. Lay the points and watch the Bengals lay another post-season egg.

Detroit Lions (+7) over DALLAS COWBOYS: The 'Boys are going to make some noise this post-season, but the ghosts of Christmas past will haunt their nerves early and a couple of turnovers will allow the Lions to build a bit of a lead before Dallas comes back and wins and nail-biter in dramatic fashion. Take the points but don't bet the ML.

May the Spreads be With You All,

Vinny and Marco

Reminders

1. Check out our friends at 1Vice. Click on the icon to the right and tell them Vinny and Marco sent you. They have terrific bonuses, fast payouts, and excellent customer service.

2. It's not too late to send us coffee. We'll need caffeine for the Divisional Round and Conference Championships. It might even be a tax write off. Just click on the Coffee for Vinny and Marco button and tell us you love us. We love you.

NFL Picks Week 17: Packers vs Lions ATS & More

2014-12-27T09:51:00.001-08:00

Season to Date: 38-36 ATS

Last Week: 1-4 ATS
Top Picks to Date: 10-5 ATS

It's Vin-mania 2014 as my extended family has descended upon us, stretching Christmas and Boxing Day into the New Year. The resulting lack of time has me posting a Friday Five on Saturday morning while praying that Week 17 hurtles us into the post-season (where we've always thrived) with some momentum.

It's definitely garbage time in the NFL with only a handful of meaningful games left on the schedule. As Marco and I are wont to do, we're passing on the potential money-making games between off-season bound squads and bringing you our thoughts on the games that matter most.

In the beginning of the season, picking NFL games is like shooting fish in an ocean. Generally you aim at the big ones and hope for the best. By the middle of the NFL season, the ocean shrinks and Marco and the fish that have failed to cover the spread become our #1 targets. At the end of the year, however, the fish are who they are, they've established their patterns and the question becomes whether to Back the trend or Buck It. Sometimes we just say, "Buck it."

Week 17 Friday Five - Backing or Bucking

#5. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+1) over San Diego Chargers: Meaningful game for both teams. The Chiefs are 2-8 SU/3-7 ATS against the AFC West but we're Bucking rather than Backing this trend. The home field advantage will be just enough for Kansas City to win. This is our least confident play, but sometimes that should be your most confident. Take the Chiefs.

#4. Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) over the PITTSBURGH STEELERS: The Steelers and their much improved offense has gone 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS against the AFC North in their last 6 home games. Cincinnati, on the other hand, has quietly won their past four road games and their only blemish in the past five weeks was a home trouncing to the Steelers. This line is inflated. Buck the Steelers and Back the Bengals.

#3. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+4) over New Orleans Saints: 91% of the public is backing the Saints in the most meaningless game they've ever played under Sean Peyton. Lovie Smith has more experience this year with meaningless games. The Saints are also 4-10 ATS in their last 14 as favorites. We'll take the team that has known for weeks they weren't headed to the post-season over the team that just blew it last week.

#2. Detroit Lions (+7.5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS: The Lions are 0-4 ATS as a dog of 7+ with Matthew Stafford at the helm. Aaron Rodgers is a bit banged up. This is the game of the century for the Lions and we believe they will be ready. We might be influenced by our desire to see a close game, but we'll Buck the Lambeau magic and back the Lions.

#1. ATLANTA FALCONS (-3.5) over Carolina Panthers: We'll back the trend that the home team in this series is 4-0 ATS. They also have the better/healthier/more experienced quarterback. Take the Falcons.

May the Spreads Be With You All,

Vinny and Marco

NFL Picks Week 16: Bengals vs Broncos ATS & So Much More

2014-12-20T09:31:00.001-08:00

Season to Date: 37-33 ATS

Last Week: 3-2 ATS

Top Picks to Date: 10-4 ATS

When I was growing up, I divided my time between the north coast of California and the west coast of India. During my stints in the latter, until the age of six years old, we lived in a fishing village without electricity, running water, or the subsequent gluttony that comes with having those amenities. Kerosene lamps flickered in the houses after sundown as we read, played, ate, and without the constant hum of some sort of technology or appliance in the background. No television, no stereos, no refrigerator, and also nothing taken for granted.

Each morning, the Ice Man (this is way before Top Gun) would push his bike through the thick sand to our house and deliver a block of solid water which we would place inside our Styrofoam box/fridge. After that, the Veggy Lady, the Fruit Merchant, and the Fish Walla (no not the nineties band) would cruise the neighborhood selling their wares and we'd purchase what we needed for the day, or at the very most the weekend. There was no stock-piling or hoarding of food, just a simple day-to-day life of appreciation and serenity.

Last week, I got to revisit those memories with my five year-old daughter when a tree on our property took out a power line, a phone line, and left us without Internet for a week even after the other two were restored. School was cancelled in our district, and we got to have an extra family day as we watched the rain come down and the PG & E trucks drive by. That, dear readers, is why there was no Friday Five last week. I suppose I could driven to town, but I didn't feel like trying to crank out a post in the bustle of a one-Starbucks town environment. Not my bag, baby. We'll try to make it up to you with our Week 16 picks.

Football is getting exciting. Playoff births are up in the air across the board are up for grabs and while the usual suspects in the AFC (Pats, Broncos, Colts) have punched their tickets, but only the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC have secured a spot in the second season. Does this mean teams with added motivation are guaranteed to win this weekend? Or are teams like the Niners finally going to relax and cut loose a bit in hopes for inviting the Chargers to join them for an off-season fishing trip? Let's take a look.

NFL Week 16 Friday Five

#5. Denver Broncos (-3) over CINCINNATI BENGALS: The Bengals have a terrific home field advantage, but unfortunately they have a quarterback who can't win prime time games. Andy Dalton is 2-9 ATS under the lights which, coupled with the fact that Denver is still fighting for the number one seed (although I think Manning would be thrilled if the Colts got it and he could play indoors in the championship), and we're giving up the small chalk on the road.

#4. Detroit Lions (-9) over CHICAGO BEARS: This will feel like a home game to the Lions. They are giving up about 17 points/game on the season and will be facing a Jimmy Clausen who is 1-9 SU/3-7 ATS in his professional career. We don't roll with big lines very often, but the Lions are on their way to an NFC North title and they will be making a statement in that regard on Sunday.

#3. Indianapolis Colts (+3) over DALLAS COWBOYS: From Week 13 on, the Cowboys are 3-19-1 ATS in their last 24 games. Couple that with the injury to DeMarco Murray and this is easy money.

#2. CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3.5) over Cleveland Browns: Even an injured Cam Newton is better than an inexperienced Johnny Football. The Panthers could still win their division by winning out and having the Falcons and the Saints lose just once. Amazing.

#1. SAN FRANCISCO FORTY NINERS (-1) over San Diego Chargers: The seventy-two percent of the public backing the Chargers obviously thinks that motivation will play a role in this game. But this is the NFL, a league full of players and coaches who have worked their asses off to survive the competition for as long as they have because even when they're not playing for the playoffs they're still playing for their futures. As unappealing as Jim Harbaugh is as a human being, he is a motivator of men. We think he will promise one million dollars of his exit contract to Michigan to anyone on the Niners who scores a touchdown. Take the Niners this evening at #1.

Go Wolverines and May the Spreads Be With You All,

Vinny and Marcox

NFL Picks Week 14: Ravens vs Dolpins ATS; Friday Five

2014-12-05T21:20:00.000-08:00

Season to Date: 34-31 ATS

Last Week: 1-4 ATS

Top Picks to Date: 9-4 ATS

This morning I had to disappoint my five year-old daughter with news of a cancelled play date. As I was delivering the news I decided to present it as a good news bad news scenario and suddenly found myself riveted as she paused before making her choice. Personally, I've always been one to choose the bad news first so I have something to look forward to. I'd much rather get hit with the hard stuff and have a soft place to land than find out something exciting only to have it diminished by something god-awful.

In what felt like a monumental, personality-defining moment, it took all of two seconds for my daughter to say, "Good news." Well, when you get home you get to watch Snow Days with Granny C. "Awesome," she replied. She didn't even remember there was bad news. I delivered it anyway - Sorry, sweetie, Lily's sick and can't play after school. "I don't mind," she said, clearly happy enough about Snow Days. Maybe I've had it all wrong. Maybe Good news would have cushioned the blows all these years. Let's experiment.

The good news, dear readers, is we're 9-4 ATS with our #1 picks and still hovering above .500 13 weeks into the NFL season. The bad news is we're 2-8 ATS (0-2 ATS on our #1's) over the past 2 weeks.

VS

The bad news is the losing streak here at TSZ continues as we've gone 2-8 ATS in our last 10 but the good news is our #1's are still 9-4 ATS on the year and we're hovering above .500 overall..

I think my daughter might be on to something. Let's get to the picks.

NFL Week 14 Friday Five Top Confidence Picks

#5. CLEVELAND BROWNS (+3.5) over Indianapolis Colts: Yeah, I know - we should change our name to The Brownzone with the number of times we've taken Cleveland. I still argue that they've been good to us, but I don't know if I can back that with facts or numbers anymore. Here's the thing - nobody likes Johnny Manziel except for Johnny Manziel. Brian Hoyer's teammates are going to play their tails off for his job and Josh Gordon is going to have a field day with Colts top corner being questionable for Sunday's match-up. We like the Browns to frustrate Luck all afternoon and not only cover but win. Stat of the day: Cleveland is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 off an SU loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record.

#4. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-6) over New York Jets: The Vikings may be bad, but the Jets are awful. New York is 1-6-1 ATS following an ATS cover (very general useful stat) while the Vikings are 1-5 ATS after an ATS cover of more than 14 points (very specific not very useful stat). What compels us to take Minny is Jeff Grant tweeting that the Vikes are now 10-0 ATS in their last 10 home games in the second half of seasons. Team on the rise people. Well, against the Jets that is.

#3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10) over DETROIT LIONS: The Bucs have been bringing in the bucks as road dogs this season. Lovie Smith has his guys playing their hearts out despite their losing record and no hopes of a post-season birth. Couple the fact that Tampa Bays is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games (all as +6.5 dogs) with the fact that Detroit is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after an ATS win and you've got yourself a recipe for risk-free betting. That's an oxymoron. Take the points.

#2. HOUSTON TEXANS (-6) over Jacksonville Jaguars: Mark our words, JJ Watt will not only swat a potential touchdown on defense, he will also catch a touchdown which he will be asked to throw to himself. The kid can do it all. Give up the points and watch JJ pick the six right back for you. The Texans will be 6-1 ATS as favorites after this game.

#1. Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS: This game has the smell of a 17-16 barn burner. Not sure who wins, but well take the points no matter who's getting them. In this case it's the road challenged Ravens, but guess what - the Ravens are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with winning records and 5-2 ATS after their last 7 SU losses. Meanwhile, Miami is a paltry 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Sundays after a Monday Night Football appearance. Take the points.

Five Bonus Picks: Why not? A full schedule of games again. Lots to choose from. Besides, we're kind of in the twilight of our careers with TSZ's final season coming to a close. Let's try to pad the stats where we can. Here are the five that didn't make the cut this week and why we like them:

* WASHINGTON REDSKINS (+3) over St. Louis Rams: Home dog + the fact that the Rams are 1-12 ATS as road favorites playing against a team with revenge motive.

* DENVER BRONCOS (-9.5) over Buffalo Bills: When the Broncos are favored big, they respond. They are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 7 as 9+ point favorites.

* GREEN BAY PACKERS (-12.5) over Atlanta Falcons: Battle of division leaders? Sort of. Only GB comes in with a 9-3 record (undefeated at home) while ATL boasts a 5-7 (2-4 road) record. The Packers look unbeatable when they play at Lambeau while the Falcons are now 3-13 ATS in their last 16 upset wins as a home dog.

* OAKLAND RAIDERS (+8) over San Francisco Forty Niners: Kaepernick's indecision + continued in-fighting in SF + Raiders 5-1 ATS record as 7+ point dogs = WIN.

* SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (+3.5) over New England Patriots: Philip Rivers plays his best football under pressure. New England plays their only bad football on the road. The Pats are now 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games and 2-6 ATS over the past two seasons as road favorites.

May the Spreads Be With You,

Vinny and Marco

NFL Picks ATS Week 13: Packers vs Patriots & More

2014-11-29T08:22:00.000-08:00

Season to Date: 33-27 ATS (55%)

Last Week: 1-4 ATS

Top Picks to Date: 9-3 ATS (75%)

Happy Turkey Day, everyone. We hope your Thanksgiving was filled with friends, food, football, and most importantly an infinitely long gratitude list. We've appreciated you for three seasons now and our only regret is that we don't have more time to spend waxing philosophical about the ridiculous art/tomfoolery of gambling. For a while now I've been meaning to apologize for the quickly declining lengths of our posts here at TSZ, but what we've sacrificed in circumlocution we've more than made up for with...well, fancy words like circumlocution. Oh, and winning. Unfortunately, our #1 pick went down last week when Tampa Bay quarterback, Josh McCown, threw back to back complete lasers to the Chicago Bears defense, flipping a Buccaneers lead into a huge third quarter deficit. Fortunately, however, we've already clinched a winning season with our top confidence picks which are now sitting at a respectable 9-3 ATS.

NFL Week 13 Friday Five

#5. Oakland Raiders (+7) over ST. LOUIS RAMS: The Raiders got a confidence boosting win last week and had an extra three days off to recover. Although they are 1-10 SU on the season, they are now 4-1 ATS on the road covering larger lines. The Rams, on the other hand, are the a roller coaster - they've won every other week since mid-October, but with the exception of their 22-7 pounding of the Broncos, their average margin of victory is 2.3 points. We'll happily take the TD and a quickly improving Derek Carr.

#4. Cleveland Browns (+3.5) over BUFFALO BILLS: The AFC North is stacked this year and although the Browns are in last place again, they're also in second place sitting at 7-4 and tied with the Steelers and the Ravens. Do we pick the Browns every week? Almost, and so far that has paid off to the tune of 6-3-2 ATS, 3-1-1 ATS on the road, and 4-0-1 as an underdog. The Bills were dominant in a make-shift prime time game which is why 72% of the public is backing them, but that was against the Jets, people. We'll take the field goal plus in a game that has field goal win written all over it.

#3. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+2.5) over Denver Broncos: The Chiefs have been great at home this year (4-1 ATS) including wins over playoff-bound New England and Seattle, while the Broncos have had their ups and downs on the road (2-3 SU/ATS) with their wins coming against the Oakland Raiders and the New York Jets. Since joining the Broncos, Peyton Manning is now 2-4 ATS after Week 8 against teams that allow less than 21 ppg. How awesomely specific is that? Looks like easy money taking a home dog in KC this weekend.

#2. GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3) over New England Patriots: The Packers are 4-0-1 at home this year, winning games by an average of...TWENTY NINE POINTS PER GAME. That's ridiculous. I don't care how well New England is playing. Both of the Patriots losses have come on the road this year and when you have an unstoppable force going up against an unstoppable force, I'll take the home field advantage. This figures to be a potential Super Bowl preview and with 75% of the public backing New England, we like the Packers in a rout.

#1. Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS: Why on earth wouldn't we bet on a team whose only two losses this year have come at the hands of last year's Super Bowl teams - on the road. With the exception of falling to the Broncos and the Seahawks, the Arizona Cardinals have won their other three road games by exactly 11 points each (NYG, DAL, OAK). The once home-dominant Falcons haven't won on their turf since Week 3 and they haven't beaten anyone outside their crappy division at all this year. Why this line is so low, who knows? We'll gladly give up the 2.5 and likely get a double-digit win.

May the Spreads Be with You,

Vinny and Marco

NFL Picks Week 12: Broncos vs Dolphins ATS - Friday Five

2014-11-22T08:14:00.000-08:00

Season to Date: 32-23 ATS (58%)

Last Week: 3-2 ATS

Top Picks to Date: 9-2 ATS (82%)

The unbelievable run of #1 picks continues at TSZ. Once again, gambling is akin to dating. When you're in a relationship, it's easy to flirt and get phone numbers because there's nothing to lose. In fact, in some demographics, married makes you even more attractive because there's nothing to lose on the other side. When you're single, however, and forced to play the game, take risks, and get rejected it's a whole other ballgame. Similarly, when Marco and I were in the game last season, "investing" money for our friends, we were broke by Week 9. This year, however, when we're just picking games with nothing at stake, we can apparently get whatever we want. Favorite, dog, home, away, hot, ugly, our number one picks keep on hitting. It's another classic "If Only..." tale of a degenerate gambler.

This week Marco and I tried a new "system." Most of our systems are the same and have nothing to do with those fancy things called "computer programs" (whatever that is), and most hinge of efficiency, dialogue, and a rudimentary knowledge of sports, psychology, and the gambling industry. This week, the summation of that was a game we call "Like, Love, or Pass." We just went down the list and said one of those words. When we had a like or love in common, that became a game for discussion. The rest went by the wayside. Here are this week's Friday Five

Friday Five Week 12

#5. Cleveland Browns (+3) over ATLANTA FALCONS: That's right, we're going back to the brown water well. What? Against the first place Atlanta Falcons? Yes, against the first place 4-6 Atlanta Falcons. They will have no answer for the return of Josh Gordon which will open up the field for Cleveland. Take the points.

#4. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-5) over St. Louis Rams: Over-hyped versus Over-due. The Rams defense looks great, but there has to be a letdown after what equated to the Ram's Super Bowl last week when they knocked off the Broncos at home. The Rams are over-valued in this spot. Give up the points and take the UNDER, too if you're a totals bettor.

#3. Tennessee Titans (+11) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Could this be an over-valued Monday Night team versus an undervalued blown-out team? It certainly could, but we've seen enough of the Titans defense and enough of Zack Mettenberger to believe this game will stay within a touchdown. Take eleven and get some change.

#2. DENVER BRONCOS (-7.5) over Miami Dolphins: Not enough points to back the Dolphins against what will be an angry. Peyton Manning is 7-1 with the Broncos after a loss and they've covered six of those games. That's enough for us.

#1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6) over CHICAGO BEARS: The return of Lovie is all we need to take the Bucs to cover here. The Bears should not be favored by this many over anyone, especially when the Bucs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 visits to Chicago, while the Bears are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 home games. The weather will be terrible, points will be at a premium, so we'll take almost a touchdown all day long.

Sorry so short, but family obligations.

May the Spreads Be With You All,

Vinny and Marco#5.

NFL Picks Week 11: Chiefs vs Seahawks ATS; Friday Five

2014-11-14T12:38:00.000-08:00

Season to Date: 29-21 ATS (58%)

Last Week: 3-2 ATS

Top Picks to Date: 8-2 ATS (80%)

With the second half of the season in full-swing, things are starting to get interesting around the league. Unfortunately, unlike the days of old when I had nothing to do but watch my daughter and watch football, I these days I can barely manage either. If 2013 taught us anything it is that knowledge is the opposite of power in the sports betting world. If 2014 is doing its part in reinforcing that truth. If you knew the amount of time and energy Marco and I spent last season researching picks, looking for trends, trying different angles, postulating theories, theorizing postulations, making up words that turn out to be real words, it might surprise you that we finished up under .500. On the other hand, what might surprise you even more is the amount we're putting in this year.

Vinny: "Hey Marco, is this a good time to talk out The Five?"

Marco: "Ummm. Actually, I haven't even done my research yet. Can we talk later?"
Vinny: "Sure."
Marco: "Great. I'll call you back in five minutes."

Three minutes later...

Marco: "Okay. I really like Cleveland this week."
Vinny: "Dude, you can't pick Cleveland every week."
Marco: "Okay, but I really, really like them this week."
Vinny: "More than next week when Josh Gordon comes back on both our fantasy teams? Am I right?"
Marco" "Well, no, but...dude, that's going to be awesome."
Vinny: "Yeah it really is. Okay, you can have Cleveland both weeks, but not #1."
Marco: "Deal."

NFL Week 11 Friday Five

#5. OAKLAND RAIDERS (+10.5) over San Diego Chargers: The Raiders are winless and coming off a blowout against the Denver Broncos. The Chargers have fallen from grace and are coming off a bye. This is a classic NFL rivalry under less than classic circumstances. Nonetheless, the players seems to show up for this game and although the Raiders are 4-6 ATS against the Chargers in the last 10 meetings, they've covered the spread seven times and have only lost by more than 10 once in the past five meetings (twice in the past 10). Plus, the Chargers are 1-6 ATS after bye weeks. We'll take those odds at #5. Raiders and the points.

#4. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3) over New England Patriots: This line speaks to us as well. The Patriots have been steamrolling everyone the past few weeks which makes us wonder why the oddsmakers have them looking so attractive as a dog. We're not afraid to take the home favorite here because Indianapolis has come out of byes with 7-2 ATS record in their past nine years. Sure most of that was with Peyton Manning, but it's their crowd that really rests up during the bye week. Go Indy.

"Dude, I wish I looked that good without a helmet."

#3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS: My daughter's favorite new joke:

Question: How much does it cost for a pirate to get his ears pierced?
Answer: A buck an ear.

The size of this line - much like the one in New Orleans this week - might be telling us something, but with the Redskins carrying a 3-14 SU record their last 17 games and coming out of byes to the tune of 1-3 ATS the past four years we can't in good conscience lay this many points with them. Meanwhile, for whatever reason the Tampa Bay Bucs love road cookin', covering all three since their early season blowout loss in Atlanta. We love Lovie and we love saying we love Lovie. This is a team on the rise. Take the points.

#2. CLEVELAND BROWNS (-3) over Houston Texans: The Cleveland Browns are in first place in their division in the second half of the season for the first time since...well, since the words first place were invented. With LeBron James struggling in his homecoming, the Browns are all the Cleveland fans have right now and you bet they'll be fired up for this one. Meanwhile, not only are the Texans switching QBs this weekend, their win-resume over the likes of Oakland, Washington, Tennessee, and Buffalo doesn't impress us enough to back them with so few points. This is Brian Hoyer's most important game since winning the 2002 Ohio State championship for St. Ignatius High School...as a pitcher. Lay the small chalk and watch him strike out the Texans.

#1. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-2) over Seattle Seahawks: Our days of soliciting coffee donations for #1 picks are behind us. We just don't have the time to network. If you do well with us, come on back and show your appreciation by hitting the Coffee for Vinny and Marco button. We appreciate you nonetheless.

All the numbers point to a Seattle cover here. They have covered 9 of their last 10 as an underdog while the Chiefs are 0-8 ATS in recent history as favorites of less than a field goal. Nonetheless, we are staking our 8-2 ATS record in #1 picks this week with the Kansas City Chiefs. If this were basketball or baseball, we'd believe that it was only a matter of time before the championship pedigree of the Seahawks emerges, but this is the NFL - there are no Michael Jordans or Madison Bumgarners to come to the rescue. The Chiefs will no longer be under anyone's radar after this game. The line movement of four points from Chief dog to favorite with 60% of the public backing Seattle tells me the sharps agree.

May the Spreads Be With You All,

Vinny and Marco

NFL Picks Week 10: Packers vs Bears ATS, Friday Five Confidence Picks

2014-11-08T11:53:00.000-08:00

Season to Date: 26-19 ATS

Last Week: 3-2 ATS

Top Picks to Date: 7-2 ATS

The streak is over. Our number one overall pick went down last week for the just the second time all season when the New York Jets failed to cover the double-digit spread against the Kansas City Chiefs. With plenty of opportunities for the back-door cover, the Jets appeared to just mail it in - non-priority, book rate, on an old-school horse-drawn wagon - at the end of the game. Perhaps Rex Ryan was pulling a Pete Rose as a contingency plan for his impending dismissal. Or maybe Michael Vick had a small wager on the Chiefs to cover the expense of his next concussion. Either way it was awful and embarrassing for everyone in the Jets organization (what happened Laura?) and anyone foolish enough to sell the pick for coffee. Fortunately and unfortunately, there were no new customers to disappoint.

"I'm lovin' my new shade of green."

Overall, however, another winning week at The Spread Zone. We loved the idea of going 16-1 ATS with our top picks, but we also remember what happened to the 2011 Green Bay Packers (I'm just going to keep trying to get your attention Nick) when they coasted to a 15-1 record and a first-round playoff exit, so we'll take an early loss and regroup with a big Week 10. With time at as much of a premium as our picks these days, I'm going to skip the foreplay and get straight to Sunday's top plays.

Shamelesss Promotion Section

1. 1Vice: For those of you who love the fact that the NBA season has begun (Stan), our friends at 1Vice (icon to the right) are running a season-long NBA contest. If deposit $250 into an account with them, not only do you get their standard bonus free-play, but you also earn an entry into next weekend's contest with a chance to win $500. 1Vice is a terrific, reputable, online book with whom you can trust your sports betting investment capital. Check 'em out.

2. Coffee Donations: Will work for caffeine. If you feel like sending us a cup of encouragement or a thank you on Monday, just click the Coffee for Vinny and Marco button and send us a orange mocha frappaccino. We love comments, too - praise, criticism, spam, the works. This community is nothing without you - Mysterio, Dally, Dan, BNB4B, Francis, Jay, Todd, John M., Archie...Veronica, Betty, Jughead, you all know who you are.

NFL Week 10 Friday Five (on Saturday)

#5. Tennessee Titans (+10) over BALTIMORE RAVENS: Yes, the Ravens are great at home. Yes, they are practically unbeatable in November under coach John Harbaugh (12-1 SU). And yes, all five of their wins this season have come by an average of 117.3 (exaggeration alert) points. This, however, is the NFL, which means that when something looks like a sure bet, you'd better think twice while simultaneously Googling images of of fancy hotels in Las Vegas that were built on sure bets. The Titans are coming out of their bye week where bad NFL teams often get better and healthy. Sure their QB and LSU alum Zach Mettenberger will be starting his second career game, but we like the Titans to surprise everyone here and keep this game close. Take the double digits.

#4. Carolina Panthers (+7) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Are the Panthers the same team they were in 2013? No, but what they are and have always been is a terrific live dog to bet. In their last 12 games as a road dog, the Carolina Panthers have gone a cool 9-3 ATS, including SU wins their last two underdog appearances on Monday Night Football. The Eagles are tough on both sides of the ball, but Mark Sanchez is making his first start of the season replacing the injured Nick Foles, and although I picked him up for my fantasy team (shallow FA pool), I expect some struggles and prototypical Sanchezian mistakes to keep this game close. Again with the points.

#3. San Francisco Forty Niners (+6) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: The Niners have been very mediocre this year and it appears as though Colin Kaepernick's presumed breakout year is turning into a regression to the mean. There's no doubt he is physically gifted, but there is growing doubt every week (that both SF and KC play) that letting go of Alex Smith was the right thing to do. Similarly, the New Orleans Saints have also struggled this year, and both teams enter this contest par for their courses (4-4). Conversely, however, while the Saints are in first place in their division the Niners will be battling for their playoff lives in this game. Jim Harbaugh is 3-0 in his career against the Saints and we believe the Niners will find a way to not only cover this game, but win it outright. The points are a gift.

#2. GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7) over Chicago Bears: Is there any reason to think Aaron Rodgers coming out of a bye week won't score on the Bears defense every single time he has the ball? We can't find one? Is there any reason to think the Bears defense will be slightly better and slightly healthier after their week off? Of course there is, but not enough to give them any less than double digits at Lambeau Field. The Packers are 4-0-1 ATS at home this year while the Bears come into this match-up at 7-15-2 ATS in the Marc Trestman era. It's time to fade the 2014 Bears.

#1. Coffee + e-mail = Our Top Picks for life. Our top confidence pick has now gone 7-2 ATS this season, which we believe is worth a cup of coffee. As usual, the readers on our mailing list will get this for free and if you were on ourTSZ.com list send us an e-mail at the address below and we'll get the pick to you, too. Otherwise, here's how you get our #1 pick:

1. Click on the Coffee for Vinny and Marco icon to the right and make a donation of your choosing.
2. Send us the confirmation number to vinnyandmarco@gmail.comalong with the e-mail address you'd like your pick sent to.
3. Get our pick and receive all future picks by being added to our mailing list.
4. We will refund coffee donations of more than $25 if our pick does not cover* - that's how confident and fair we are.
*Minus Paypal service charge.

Good luck kind readers. May the spreads be with us all.

Vinny and Marco

NFL Picks Week 9: Patriots vs Broncos ATS; Friday Five

2014-10-31T22:57:00.001-07:00

Season to Date: 23-17 ATS or 58%

Top Picks to Date: 7-1 ATS or 88%

Once again, the minute the lines begin to look transparent, they become clouded by what we gamblers call Caninophilia - a deep and unrequited love with all things underdog. And by we gamblers I mean I just made that up and it's pretty dumb. Nonetheless, four such dogs led us to an inspired 5-0 ATS Week 7, which - being convinced that every dog has its day - led to us backing a whole pack of them last week. Sadly, it appears that we should have let sleeping dogs lie because they ended up biting the hand that fed them in the form of a 0-4 ATS Sunday. Fortunately, however, there's nothing like the hair of the dog that bit you, and we drank it up on Monday when our #1 pick - the Washington Redskins - not only covered the double digit spread but won the game in overtime.

With Week 9 approaching, the dog days of autumn are upon us. Halloween is in our rear view mirror, Thanksgiving is on the horizon, and while we may not be the top dogs, our top picks certainly have Marco and I feeling like a couple of handicapping hot dogs. I'd write more on this ridiculous theme, but unfortunately I have an appointment to see a man about a dog.

Forgive me. It's Halloween, it's been a long day, and this pirate and his whole pirate family are experiencing a collective sugar crash. Don't worry, glucose is an acceptable performance enhancing drug. Let's roll.

NFL Week 9 Friday Five Top Confidence Picks

#5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) over CLEVELAND BROWNS: Although the Bucs have been terrible, a closer look at their 1-6 record will reveal that 4 of their 6 losses have come by 6 points or less. Cleveland, on the other hand, has been better than usual overall and pretty darn good at home going 3-1 ATS this season. Conversely, Tampa Bay is on a 2-8 ATS run in their last 10, but the selling point here is their two covers came as road dogs. It's just too many points and we'll take e'm.

"No silly, ATS covers are not wins."

#4. MIAMI DOLPHINS (-1.5) over San Diego Chargers: After jumping out to an impressive ATS start, the Chargers and their leaky defense have come back down to earth losing their last three games against the number. Although they've proven to be an effective road team, going 6-2 ATS in their last 8, the Dolphins are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on grass and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home. In a pick 'em of talent, we'll take the home field advantage and an overtime win by a field goal. Dolphins 20, Chargers 17.

#3. Saint Louis Rams (+10) over SAN FRANCISCO FORTY NINERS: The NFL is so damn unpredictable. One minute the Rams are getting destroyed at home by the Niners, then they're beating the Super Bowl champs, and a week after that they get trounced in Kansas City. Two things, however, remain the same - A) the Ram's show up to play every week and B) the Forty Niners suck coming out of the bye under Jim Harbaugh losing 3 of their last 4 with two of those losses coming against the Rams. Looks like easy money to us.

#2. Denver Broncos (-3) over New England Patriots: Someone has to win this game, right? Why not the team with the better offense and defense? We think the line should be a little higher, but because of the Patriots historic home dominance and public backing it's only a field goal. The trend that matters in this game - Peyton Manning is 10-3 ATS as a road favorite of 3 or less since joining the Broncos.

#1 Pick: Our top confidence pick has quietly gone 7-1 ATS this season, which we believe is worth a cup of coffee. As usual, the readers on our mailing list will get this for free and if you were on ourTSZ.com list send us an e-mail at the address below and we'll get the pick to you, too. Otherwise, here's how you get our #1 pick:

1. Click on the Coffee for Vinny and Marco icon to the right and make a donation of your choosing.
2. Send us the confirmation number to vinnyandmarco@gmail.comalong with the e-mail address you'd like your pick sent to.
3. Get our pick and receive all future picks by being added to our mailing list.
4. We will refund coffee donations of more than $25 if our pick does not cover* - that's how confident and fair we are.
*Minus Paypal service charge.

Good luck kind readers. May the spreads be with us all.

Vinny and Marco

NFL Picks Week 8: Patriots vs Bears ATS; Friday Five

2014-10-24T13:06:00.001-07:00

Season to Date: 22-13 ATS or 63%

Top Picks to Date: 6-1 ATS or 86%

Last Week: 5-0 ATS or One Million Billion Zillion Percent

Let's skip the boasting this week so we don't have to eat crow next Friday. It's been a pretty good year so far for Vinny, Marco, and of course Floyd Mayweather who has allegedly cleared 2.5 million dollars through Week 7. I guess somebody's been reading The Spread Zone...

Life in TSZ-land has been settling down over the past few weeks. Although returning to the world of education was a steep learning curve (emotionally) early on, time and stability have had favorable effects on students and parents alike. On the home front my daughter absolutely loves kindergarten, has impressed me with her immediate stamina for school while simultaneously disappointing me with the news that she's going to marry a boy named Pirate.

I can only imagine her first crush is an off-shoot of her favorite cartoon and I suppose I can be grateful that it's not called Jake and the Neverland Jerk Faces or Jake and the Neverland Drug Dealer's Kids. Although I had my suspicions, turns out Pirate belongs to a local police officer. I have mixed feelings about all of it and am sincerely rooting for the lesbian nun in her to emerge by adolescence. Can we talk about something else now? Please?

NFL Week 8 Friday Five

Unfortunately we've received a couple of reports that some kind of virus is trying to infect The Spread Zone. We've done everything we can to clean that up on our end and according to my A.V. it's all systems go. Even if it's not, the virus has had an undeniable impact on our results, so let's just roll with it. Remember - all the lines we're using come from our friends at 1Vice. If you like great bonuses, solid customer service, and quick payouts, click on the link to the right and hook us up with a commission. If you'd just like to say thanks for what we do (after you cash in big this weekend of course), then click on the Coffee for Vinny and Marco button to the right and send us some caffeine. Otherwise, just enjoy our mutual success and spread the word about The Zone.

Let's get to work. As usual, HOME TEAMS are in CAPS and our picks are as bold as a Starbuck's dark roast.

#5. Oakland Raiders (+7) over the CLEVELAND BROWNS: Cleveland has been up and down all year while the Raiders have mostly been down. We believe, however, that Derek Carr is showing some promising signs as a young starting QB in this league, and we look for the defense of the Raiders to keep them in this game just long enough for Carr to deliver the first fourth quarter comeback drive of his career. Some might argue that the Raider's poor rush defense plays right into Cleveland's strength, but we see those stats as skewed. Keep in mind that the Raiders have lost every game so far, so the rushing stats against them are padded. Take the touchdown and run.

#4. TENNESSEE TITANS (+3) over Houston Texans: Give us a home dog in Tennessee. This is the battle of the worst ATS stats you will ever find. The Titans are 2-16-1 ATS in their last 19 against the AFC south. Bet the Texans right? Hold up. Houston is 1-15 SU in their last 16 after a home loss. We believe Tennessee is slightly better than their record while Houston just doesn't have the right QB to put it all together. We'll take the points again.

#3. Chicago Bears (+6) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Banged up on defense, struggling on offense, locker room in-fighting, blowing big leads, blowing in general - that's Chicago Bears football for Pete's sake. Don't knock it. Also, whenever you knock Jay Cutler - and we've done it a ton - that's when he comes back and shows you why he'll always have a job in the NFL. The stat of the week - road teams are 6-1 ATS in Chicago's games this year. Those points look fantastic to us.

#2. Philadelphia Eagles (+2) over ARIZONA CARDINALS: Nick Foles is now 14-4 (12-5-1 ATS) as a starter since taking over the role five games into last season. He is also 6-2 ATS on the road overall and a compelling 3-0 ATS as a road underdog. He is also on my fantasy team along with LeSean McCoy and the Eagles defense. He is also a former Arizona University graduate and dated lots of sorority girls. One of them knew Kevin Bacon. Therefore, take the Eagles and the points.

#1 Pick: Our top confidence pick has quietly gone 6-1 ATS this season thanks to New Orleans pulling off the 1 point loss to the Lions last week. Now we really believe we have something worth marketing. As usual, the readers on our mailing list will get this for free and if you were on ourTSZ.com list send us an e-mail at the address below and we'll get the pick to you, too. Otherwise, here's how you get our #1 pick:

1. Click on the Coffee for Vinny and Marco icon to the right and make a donation of your choosing.
2. Send us the confirmation number to vinnyandmarco@gmail.comalong with the e-mail address you'd like your pick sent to.
3. Get our pick and receive all future picks by being added to our mailing list.
4. We will refund coffee donations of more than $25 if our pick does not cover* - that's how confident and fair we are.
*Minus Paypal service charge.

Good luck kind readers. May the spreads be with us all.

Vinny and Marco

NFL Picks Week 7: Chiefs vs Chargers ATS; Friday Five

2014-10-17T14:34:00.000-07:00

Record to Date: 17-13 ATS

Last Week: "Humility is the solid foundation of all virtues." - Confucious
Translation: 1-4 ATS, but our #1 Jags pulled a dramatic, come-from-behind-didn't-win-but-back-door-cover for us in the final 30 seconds of our game bringing our top picks to...

Top Confidence Picks: 5-1 ATS

I know The Spread Zone is all about football (and sometimes basketball, hockey, World Cup soccer, Brazilian women's handball, and the occasional college football game - Where are you MaChez?), but as a lifelong and rabid San Francisco Giants baseball fan I would like us all to share a moment of celebratory silence while I scream a humble "F-------------K YEAAAAAAAAH" of gratitude at the top of my lungs.

Since our longtime reader, former hillbilly neighbor, and Los(t) Angeles Dodgers fan Bobby M. affectionately calls San Francisco the Va-Giants, I guess we are in the process of witnessing a genuine Va-Gianasty. Three World Series appearances in her life, and my daughter isn't even five years old yet. Talk about spoiled. As a nice addendum and human interest story, rumor has it Travis Ishikawa (who hit the walk-off homer to send us to the Series) was not only considering retirement earlier this season, but was also considering signing up to be a substitute teacher in Marco's school district. Now he'll never have to sub anywhere ever again, and may even get an ad spot with Sub-way. "You too can walk off the calories if you eat at..."

Coffee Thank You's: Imagine the biggest coffee you could ever order from Starbucks. No, not their chintzy, little Trenta iced beverage cup, but your own 64 ounce travel mug from 7-11 filled to rim with espresso shots, syrups, soy milks, caramel, whipped cream, and anything else they charge an arm and a leg for. Then imagine buying one for your buddy Marco and two decaf versions for your four and two year olds. Then imagine getting a bunch of change back for future purchases. That is the size of the thank you we are extending to Archie G. for his generous caffeine donation to the cause. Too bad we didn't drink those before making our picks last week. Thanks to Archie, however, we believe this week will be our best one yet. If you'd like to contribute to our winning ways or show your appreciation for our picks thus far, just click on Coffee for Vinny and Marco icon. We do this for the love of sports and betting, so no pressure.

NFL Week 7 Friday Five: Every Dog Has His Day

#5. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3) over Houston Texans: The Steelers killed us last week, making it very clear they were not going to show up in Cleveland by the end of the third quarter. Hopefully for Pittsburgh, Morrissey was wrong and every day is not like Sunday - at least not last Sunday. Especially when it's Monday. The Texans come into this match-up as one of the darlings of the league, turning things around from their abysmal 2-14 2013. Their highly touted defense hasn't surrendered many points (20/game), but their pass defense ranks 28th in the league and Pittsburgh should have little trouble covering the small spread at home under the bright lights of Monday Night Football. Besides, they are 13-0 ATS at home off an SUATS division loss in which they allowed 30 plus points.

#4. Miami Dolphins (+3) over CHICAGO BEARS: Miami seems like a good team to bet on as an underdog as they manage to keep games close. The Bears defense is still banged up, which should allow the Dolphins to work their magic and stick around. They gave the Packers a run for their money and will do the same with the Bears. Compelling and random stat to support our pick: When the Dolphins are playing as an underdog after losing two of their last three games and losing their last game by 3 points or less are 10-1-0 ATS. Now that's random number crunching you can bank on.

#3. Tennessee Titans (+5.5) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS: This Halloween my family is dressing up like Jake and the Neverland Pirates, with yours truly as Captain Hook. I understand the big fuss about getting Washington to lose the mascot, but isn't it interesting that we celebrate/romanticize historic rapers and pillagers and nobody complains about the Bucs or the Raiders. Anyway, this is a match-up of two very average teams with pretty average personnel. The line is probably where it should be, but the compelling stat that supports our pick is the fact that the 12 under .500 teams in the NFL are currently 4-18 ATS as favorites. The Redskins are definitely one of those teams. Couple that with the fact that the Titans have only covered once and we'll grab those points every time.

#2. Kansas City Chiefs (+4) over SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: San Diego has been awesome at home this year and is heading into Week 7 with a 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS record. A closer look, however, and you'll notice their last three wins have come against the likes of Jacksonville, the NY Jets, and the Oakland Raiders - with combined records of 1-17. Meanwhile, the Chiefs come in rested and having played their last three games against Miami (W), New England (W), and San Franciso (L). Andy Reid teams with rest are 16-2 SU and 13-5 ATS. We like the Chiefs on the ML, but we'll take the points.

#1 Pick: Our top confidence pick has quietly gone 5-1 ATS this season, including a pick last week that no one believed in when we took the Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5. Now we really believe we have something worth trading for a Coffee for Vinny and Marco donation. As usual, the readers on our mailing list will get this for free and if you were on our TSZ.com list send us an e-mail at the address below and we'll get the pick to you, too. Otherwise, here's how you get our #1 pick:

1. Click on the Coffee for Vinny and Marco icon to the right and make a donation of your choosing.
2. Send us the confirmation number to vinnyandmarco@gmail.com along with the e-mail address you'd like your pick sent to.
3. Get our pick and receive all future picks by being added to our mailing list.
4. We will refund coffee donations of more than $25 if our pick does not cover* - that's how confident and fair we are.
*Minus Paypal service charge.

Good luck kind readers. May the spreads be with us all.

Vinny and Marco

NFL Picks Week 6: Seahawks vs Cowboys ATS - TSZ's Friday Five

2014-10-10T09:52:00.000-07:00

2014 Record To Date: 16-9 ATS (64%)

Since Week 3: 11-4 ATS (73%)

Top Confidence Picks Through Week 5: 4-1 ATS (80%)

Picking football is like dating. If you're selective and travel with a wing man, you can generally have some success. If you're a drunken fool and chase every game out there, then chances are you're going to end up losing your juice and walking away dis-eased by the whole experience. Our suggestion: keep your pants on and be patient.

There are good teams out there to date, but if you don't like losing then don't be monogamous. Play the field, ride the hot ones for a while, but don't ignore the losers because eventually they become the best action out there. If a team hasn't been "under the cover(s)" in a while, then both their personal desperation along with the lack of competition (public fade) makes them an attractive pick-up. Most importantly, always use protection (for Visa Card deposits) and remember that "No" means maybe next week.

In TSZ's inaugural season, Marco and I somehow managed to be selective and lucky, nailing our Friday Fives at almost 65% while hitting all the games at a slightly profitable 54%. Last year, however, our totals slid below 50% but our Friday Fives continued to be strong, finishing the year on a 14-5-1 ATS run and destroying in the playoffs 8-3 ATS for the second straight year. Looks like we've picked up right where we left off.

REMINDER: If you enjoy expensive guessing as much as we do, then start an account with our unofficial sponsors at 1Vice. They have an extensive list of promotional offers depending on how much you deposit, including up to 300% free play or 40% cash bonus. Their lines are competitive, their payouts are fast, and their customer service is second to none. If you do sign up with them, please be sure to do it through our site - and please feel free to e-mail us (vinnyandmarco@gmail.com) if you have any questions about them. Good luck out there.

The Spread Zone's Week 6 Friday Five

#5. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-8) over Dallas Cowboys: America's Team has managed to string together four straight victories heading into a showdown with the defending Super Bowl champs this week. There is no doubt they are a better Cowboys team than we have seen the past couple of seasons, but there is also no greater home field advantage in all of sports than Century Link field. The Seahawks are 16-0 SU/12-4 ATS in their last two seasons worth of home football, covering seven double-digit lines along the way. The eight is being dangled for a publicly backed team, but we see this one getting out of hand early. Lay the TD+.

#4. BUFFALO BILLS (+3) over New England Patriots: Fools us once, shame on you New England. You ruined our perfect Week 5 by ruining the Cincinnati Bengals perfect 2014 record. Unfortunately for you, in order for Tom Brady to be successful you need the running game to be working, and this week you find yourself up against the fourth ranked Buffalo Bills rush defense. If this were an SAT analogy then New England would be to the Bills as Pittsburgh is to the Browns, beating their division rivals 8 of the last 10 meetings while winning multiple division crowns. Buffalo, however, is a cool 5-1 ATS in their last six as a home dog, so while taking the Pats minus a field goal against a division opponent seems like a no-brainer, keep in mind they were 3.5 point favs against Miami in Week 1 when they got blown out by the Dolphins. We think the Bills pull of the upset and claim sole possession of first place in the AFC East.

#3. ATLANTA FALCONS (-2.5) over Chicago Bears: "Like sand through an hour glass, so are the days of our lives." Similarly, like water through a sieve, so is every offense through both the Falcons and the Bears defenses. In a battle between the 23rd and 29th ranked defenses, the OVER 54 is probably the best bet of all. Nonetheless, with the Falcons seemed to have bounced back from a rough 2013 campaign and have returned to their winning ways - inside the Georgia Dome. The Bears, on the other hand, are like the girl with the curl in the middle of her forehead - when they good they're very very good, but when they're bad they're awful. Sometimes, like last week against the Panthers, they're both in the same game which is why they are a paltry 6-15-1 in their last 22 games. We'll lay the small chalk with the Falcons at home.

#2. Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS: Remember what Psychic Granny C said? This is the year of the ambiguous round logo that might be the Pittsburgh Steelers. If she's right, then they'd better go 4-2 if they intend to win another Super Bowl. Besides, there are way too many reasons to take the Browns here. They're at home, they're coming off an historic comeback over the Titans last week, Brian Hoyer is now 5-2 SU (undefeated ATS) as a starter, and Johnny Manzeil has become a non-story. The points and the Steelers seem way too good to be true, but sometimes the line is like a double agent in a government espionage novel and you just have to trust the guy with more character. Cleveland is prone to digging big holes like last week in Tennessee and Week 1 in Pittsburgh, and with the resurgence of the Steelers running game, that doesn't bode well. Take the points.

#1. Last week we offered our #1 pick for the price of a cup of Joe. Not only that, but we guaranteed the pick. Poetically, the Kansas City Chiefs went to San Francisco and covered against a team that was once ruled by a charismatic champion known as Joe Cool.

This week we have another winner and we have the same offer. If you're on our mailing list, you'll get this pick e-mailed to you, and if you were on our TSZ.com mailing list, shoot us an e-mail and let us know. If you're new and would like to join our successful, fun-loving, highly intelligent community of degenerate gamblers then please:

A) Click the Coffee for Vinny and Marco button on the right to make a donation.
B) Send us your confirmation number to vinnyandmarco@gmail.com.
C) We'll send you the pick.
D) If you donate more than $20, we'll guarantee the pick and refund your money if it doesn't hit.

May the Spreads Be With You All,

Vinny and Marco

NFL Picks Week 5: Niners vs Chiefs ATS - Friday Five

2014-10-03T16:57:00.001-07:00

Last Week's Record: 3-2 ATS

Season to Date: 12-8 ATS

Top Confidence Picks: 3-1 ATS

Reminders

1. Coffee Please: If you do well with our picks or would like to inspire us to make more picks in the future, please click on the Coffee for Vinny and Marco button to the right.

2. 1Vice: If you love gambling, love bonus free play, love competitive lines, and love making us a nominal commission, then deposit with 1Vice today. They have some terrific promos including 40% cash bonus with no rollover plus 30% gambler's insurance for the rockier months. Good luck out there.

NFL Picks Week 5: Friday Five Top Confidence Picks

#5. CLEVELAND BROWNS (+2.5) over TENNESSEE TITANS: To Marco and me, these guys don't look like your dad's Charlie Browns anymore. In fact, as they've been building towards success (for the past three decades), they've quietly gone 3-1-1 coming out of their bye weeks the past few years. The Titans, on the other hand, have lost their last three games as home favorites and are still uncertain about the status of starting quarterback Jake Locker. Even with Locker, Tennessee has struggled to put points on the board (1.3/drive), so we'll take our chances and the points and Cleveland's QB Brian Hoyer's 5-1 ATS record as a starter.

#4. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-6.5) over New York Jets: Philip Rivers has been nothing short of sensational this year, racking up 39 points last week for my fantasy team while carrying his reality team to a 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS start. Although the underdog has dominated the last six meetings going 5-1 ATS, recent history has the Jets going 2-4-2 ATS in their last eight road games, and 6-13-1 in last 20 games as underdogs of eight or fewer points. More importantly, recent history also has Geno Smith as their struggling quarterback. He has become the Geico of the NFL - he'll save you 15 points in 15 minutes or your money back. We'll give him six and a half and take the Chargers. And just for fun, I'm bringing back an old picture of my daughter interviewing him after a tough game.

#3. NEW YORK GIANTS (-4.5) over Atlanta Falcons: Who doesn't love Halloween? Free candy, cool costumes, the marked beginning of the holiday season? Eli Manning doesn't, that's who. In fact, if he could dress up as anyone - besides his brother Peyton - it would be Bill Murray in Ground Hog's Day so he could replay the month of October (a career 29-7) over and over and over. We never feel great picking the Giants, but at -4.5 this line looks way too Atlanta friendly for a team that has a terrible defense, a decimated O-line, and a 3-7 ATS record in their last 10 games. This one could get ugly.

#2. Cincinnati Bengals (-1) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Teams that win the running battle this season have covered games to the tune of 40-20-1 ATS. That's as money as Tom Brady used to be when he had protection, reliable receivers, the novelty of youth, and an AFC that rivaled basketball's Eastern Conference. Until this year, Marco and I never really thought the Bengals were legit, and every post-season they validated that belief. Not anymore. This Cincinnati team is not only going to run away with their division, they'll be accepting a first-round bye in the playoffs. Look for a stunning home loss as the Patriots fall below .500 in the AFC Least.

#1. Vinny and Marco (+Coffee) = 100% Guaranteed Top Confidence Pick: Too early to franchise? C'mon - it has been three years. We're just trying to stay awake here. We've always been a pretty reasonable outfit here at TSZ, so here are the deals:

A) If you're on our mailing list we're sending you our number one pick anyway, and if you were on our mailing list at TSZ.com please shoot us an e-mail at vinnyandmarco@gmail.com so I can do the same for you. Seriously, I have the TSZ.com list, I just haven't transferred it back over to the blog, so just let me know and I'll e-mail you the pick.

See how honest we look?

For anyone else interested in our top pick, just buy us a cup of coffee - you decide how big - and send us the confirmation number to vinnyandmarco@gmail.com so we can add you to our list and send you our #1 picks for the rest of eternity. If we hit, great - welcome to TSZ and enjoy the picks for as long as we offer them. If we don't I'll hit the refund button Sunday night (minus Paypal's commission), and you'll get your coffee right back. How's that for karma?

May the Spreads Be With You all,

Vinny and Marco

Packers vs Bears Pick ATS NFL Week 4

2014-09-26T22:45:00.001-07:00

Last Week's Record: 4-1 ATS

Season to Date: 9-6 ATS

Top Confidence Picks: 3-0 ATS

I know it's early, but this already feels way better than 2013. Remember that time when Marco and I foolishly purchased a domain name, built an entire website, charged a nominal TSZ Insider's fee (which our generous readers were kind enough to indulge), and then proceeded to pick fewer games correctly than Psychic Granny C? Well, we do. And trust me, so does my mother-in-law. "I wouldn't mind doing picks again this year, Vinny," she said during a preseason breakfast, "but I don't want to embarrass you again on your website."

I don't get annoyed often, but when I do...it's at her. And for the record she - much like the rest of our team - ended up under .500 on the season, so the only embarrassing thing is that we were all worse than both my four year-old daughter (10-6 ATS based on mascot preferences) and - what do you call that thing - oh yeah, a coin.

Now to be fair - regular season record aside - Psychic Granny C is on a pretty good run of post-season predictions. Early in 2012, she declared it The Year of the Bird when Seahawks began their rise to power and the Ravens and Falcons ended up in their respective conferences championships. Granted there are a lot of bird mascots, but then she followed it up with a mid-season prediction that Carolina would win the Super Bowl the next year based on their shade of blue. I scoffed, and promised to take her to a fancy dinner if they even made it to New York, and then I proceeded to rib her with questions like, "Are you sure it wasn't Titan blue or Indianapolis blue? Or maybe a panther eating something blue?"

Sure enough, the once mediocre Panthers rolled to a division title, a first-round bye, and a first round exit last year. It was enough for me to buy her a un-fancy breakfast.

If anyone's interested in placing a wager, this Granny C has yet another prediction. It started out with a vision around Week 11 of last year when she said, "Vinny, I'm not sure what this means..." (all of her visions start out like that), "but I saw a team with a round logo on their helmet, and I think they're going to win it all next year." Rolling my eyes and sighing, I reluctantly Googled NFL team logos and the closest thing she could identify to her vision was the Pittsburgh Steelers. Booooo.

At the time, equally annoyed by the fact that she had consistently beaten us with her picks the first six weeks of the season and that Carolina Panthers were well on their way to the playoffs, I said, "No way I'm buying you dinner for the Steelers. They win the Super Bowl every five years. Call me when you have a real vision." I'm sure I apologized for my tone and delivery, but I stand by the statement.

Now let's get to some (slightly) more researched picks.

Coffee Thank You's: This post is generously sponsored by our buddy from the north Francis M. who is about to be gifted with a second child on October 26th. Congratulations to you and your family Francis, and feel free to write some posts during the early sleepless nights ahead. Also, please post photos for our readers in Texas. : ) Too soon?

If you'd like to sponsor our next post, please feel free to donate the caffeine necessary to write such nonsense. Just click the Coffee for Vinny and Marco button. Or come back and do it after you go 5-0 with our picks this week.

Speaking of sponsorship. We cannot emphasize enough our belief that GAMBLING IS JUST ANOTHER WORD FOR EXPENSIVE GUESSING, but if you're going to EXPENSIVELY GUESS then please check out our friends at 1Vice. They have great bonus offers up to 300% free play, 40% cash bonuses, and 30% gamblers insurance for the unlucky guessers among us. So please, please don't waste your hard earned money on gambling, but if you do - click on the link to the right (the picture below doesn't work) and let us earn a commission and become officially professional. Thanks, you're the best.

NFL Week 4 Friday Five: As always, our Picks are Bold and HOME TEAMS are in CAPS.

5. BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3) over Carolina Panthers: This, my friends, is what we affectionately call an "Opposite World" pick. The Carolina Panthers are an impressive 8-1 ATS as road dogs since 2011 and the Ravens are a paltry 1-4 ATS at home in their last 5. The public is split pretty evenly on this one, but we like the experience and coaching of Baltimore along with a fired up Steve Smith playing his old team to give the Ravens a 21-17 win. If you like Totals, the last 12 Ravens home games have stayed under along with 14 of 20 Panthers games. Just sayin'...

4. Green Bay Packers (-2) over CHICAGO BEARS: I know, I know - why are we going back to the well that ruined our perfect week last Sunday. Because that's what gambling tells us not to do. If Aaron Rodgers tells me to relax, do you know what I do? I relax. Green Bay has just dominated Chicago in recent seasons, winning four in a row at Soldier Field and seven of eight overall, as well as covering six of the last seven meetings. Tough trends to go against. Yeah, we said that last week in Detroit, but this is different, isn't it?

3. Oakland Raiders (+4) over Miami Dolphins: Another delightful sell for the NFL in Europe. What is the marketing director thinking. Can't we send the Seahawks and the Broncos. Is this some kind of punishment for teams missing the playoff cut - like the football B league in England. I don't get it, but we'll roll the dice with the Raiders in this one, although the UNDER is looking appealing.

2. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+3.5) over New England Patriots: The first thing I ever learned about gambling was to never bet against a Prime Time dog. The last thing I learned was "Well, that depends..." This week, we'll take the points at home in Arrowhead because the Pats have allowed Brady to be pressured a league high 44 times (6 sacks, 10 hits, and 28 hurries) while the running game has yielded just 3.5 yards per carry. Kansas City, on the other hand, has the third best pass-rush in the game. Take the points.

1. Atlanta Falcons (-3) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS: We'd like this one better in a dome, but with rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater making his first career start against the 12th ranked pass defense, the Falcons are the play. Atlanta nickelback Robert McClain has kept opposing QBs to a 44 passer rating while the Vikings are allowing pressure in almost 30% of their offensive plays. Give up the field goal and go 5-0 this week.

May the Spreads Be With You All,

Vinny and Marco

NFL Picks Week 3: Packers vs Lions ATS

2014-09-19T06:49:00.002-07:00

As many of you know, for the past three years I've enjoyed a luxurious sabbatical from education as a stay-at-home parent. Early on there were times, sleep-deprived, decorated in spit-up and urine, that the honor felt a dubious one, but as the weeks and months passed, I quickly grew to appreciate the serenity of having only one child to worry about. Would it surprise anyone to know that I loved her so much I blogged about her?

That's right, before The Spread Zone took the Internet by light drizzle, there was a parenting blog that - although almost as much fun to write - never garnered quite the same attention because:

A) new parents don't have time to read.
B) once you become a parent, you no longer give a crap about other people's kids.
C) who cares about anything when the game's on.
D) all of the above.

Instead of the encouraging e-mails we get from readers today complimenting our style and asking for more picks, I got ones that read, "Hey Vinny, I'd really like to read your blog but your posts are so freakin' long. Maybe you could make them shorter and more to the point. Or add more pictures. Love, Dad."

Then there was the picture issue. When my wife found out I was posting photos on the Internet, I received a lecture about pedophiles in Texas, blah, blah, blah. I'm not sure why she chose Texas, but the more I tell this part of my story, the larger the imaginary population of pedophiles in Texas becomes. Ignoring my dad but accommodating my wife, I began to have even more fun with the blog, writing even longer posts about my beloved 2010 San Francisco Giants and their first World Series run.

I guess I'm just reminiscing a bit this morning because the stay-at-home dad party is over. Sorry Texas, you'll have to get your Jonothan Sanchez/baby hybrid photos elsewhere. As of a month ago, I'm back the crazy world of education with a whole bunch of other people's kids to worry about, and a whole bunch of other people's parents to be annoyed with. The emotional learning curve of returning to this world has been a steep one (stories coming soon), and although I was reticent to start up TSZ again, I'm grateful I did because it's like a mini-vacation every time I sit down at the keyboard.

Help Vinny and Marco Out By:

A) Placing your wagers with 1Vice. Click on the link to the right and give them your due diligence. If you sign up right now they're offering 150% free play bonus, a free $50 wager on tonight's NCAA UConn Huskies/South Florida game, and 40% gambler's insurance on your net losses during the month of September. How does that help us? We're not sure yet because nobody has done it, but we'll let you know.

B) Old school, straight-up coffee donations by clicking the Coffee for Vinny and Marco button. We don't expect fronts, but if you like what we're doing or you do well with our picks this Sunday, come on back and say thanks in the form of caffeine.

C) Comments, comments, comments. Let's help each other out. Post the picks you like below and tell us why you like them. Now let's get to the Friday Five

NFL Week 3 Friday Five

Last Week's Record: 2-3 ATS (boo)

Season to Date: 5-5 ATS (too early to cheer or boo)

Top Confidence Picks: 2-0 ATS (thank you Dolphins and Texans)

5. Green Bay Packers (+2.5) over DETROIT LIONS: Could be a bit of a trap line, but there's no good reason not to take the road dogs here. The only time the Packers didn't cover in their last 6 trips to the Motor City was when Aaron Rodgers was on the sideline last Thanksgiving. That's the type of ownage we'd back if they were favorites, so take the gift of points and sprinkle a little green (bay) on the money line, too.

4. Chicago Bears (+3) over NEW YORK JETS: The Chicago Bears shocked the Forty Niners in their new stadium/home opener last week while the Jets gave the Packers a run for their money at Lambeau. Although we have concerns about the Bears run defense and the fact that the Jets are tough match-up at home, we like Gino Smith to keep Chicago in the game with some untimely INTs. Take the road dog again.

3. San Diego Chargers (+2.5) over BUFFALO BILLS: I know, I know - why don't we take a home team already. Here's why. The Buffalo Bills are an astonishing 2-22 ATS in their last 24 games after playing Miami. Couple that with the fact that the San Diego Chargers have proven they can play in hostile road environments, and we'll take our chances with another dog.

2. Dallas Cowboys (-1) over ST LOUIS RAMS: If it weren't for the fact that I don't give a crap, I might actually feel sorry for the Rams. This was supposed to be the Sam Bradford and the Rams breakthrough year where they put the pieces together and make a run at the playoffs. Instead, it's Sam Bradford's surgeons who get to do that (again) sans aforementioned post-season play. It's too bad, really. I like Jeff Fisher (Rams coach), I like my brother Jacob (Rams fan), and I like most Aries (Rams astrologically), but what I don't like are low-scoring games (Rams offense) or Dodge (Ram) trucks. Although the Cowboys have been a paltry 8-18 SU in their last 26 following a straight-up win, we'll take this Dallas team to buck that trend and come out of STL with a win and a cover. Dallas is the play.

1. CINCINNATI (-6.5) over Tennessee Titans: Finally, our first home team in two weeks. The Cincinnati Bengals have quietly rattled off 10 of 11 ATS covers at home dating back to the beginning of last season. Even if A.J. Green doesn't play this weekend, there is value on the Bengals to cover the spread. We look to go 3-0 ATS with our number one picks. Take the Bengals to continue their home field dominance.

Time to head back to the mines (of education). Good luck as always and...

May the Spreads Be With You,

Vinny and Marco

PS A parting shot of my daughter AmarI dunking on the other most famous Amar'E:

PSS I might find the time to write a bonus post tomorrow, but if I don't and you're interested in some compelling stats re the games in New England, Cleveland, and Seattle, shoot us an e-mail at vinnyandmarco@gmail.com and join our community. I'll send the stats out to the regular readers tomorrow.

NFL Picks Week 2: Broncos vs Chiefs ATS & More

2014-09-12T22:38:00.003-07:00

This week on Facebook (which is sadly how most of the world's stories start these days), I was nominated to participate in #5daysofgratitude, which means five days of posting things I'm grateful for and nominating others to do the same. Most people, myself included, start with the basics - family, friends, employment, 99 cent taco night - but as the days go by and we reach a little deeper, that's where we find the real things that keep us going. Or, if you're like me, you kind of trail off on day four and hope nobody notices.

After almost completing the assignment, it occurred to me that if people were being honest - and by honest I mean not for the benefit of the 700 Facebook friends they desperately want to convince that they are thoughtful, young, attractive and funny - the generic stuff would probably slide down the list in favor of HBO mini series True Detective, the new medical marijuana laws in Colorado, or in my (red)neck of the woods really, really big tires on really, really small trucks.

I'm not judging, I'm just saying.

When it came to my list, I too wanted the world (AKA the three people who still check out my FB page) to know that I love being a dad and husband, but by day two I was already talking about the San Francisco Giants, and counting down the hours to a Monday Night Football double header.
Don't get me wrong. I love my wife and kid infinitely more than I've ever loved anything, but baseball, basketball, football - those have been my loves since before I even knew how babies were made.

Although I have every bit of faith my marriage will last and my love for my daughter will transcend her inevitable departure into the world, when I do grow old and my memory and facial recognition crumble in the wake of dementia or Alzheimers, I firmly believe it will be the things like Orange Fridays, the sound of the MNF theme song, or perhaps the drone of Vin Scully's voice resonating through his 114th year in the broadcast booth that will feel more like home than anything else.

I'm grateful I'm not that guy.

Reminder: If you're going to gamble, and you're not very good at it - open an account with 1Vice, because they will refund your September misery to the tune of 40% of your net losses. Just click on the Icon to the right for the details. They have competitive lines, great bonus offers, and best of all - did I mention you get 40% of your net losses back this month. Plus the rest of the months they'll give 30% back to bet again. If you feel like betting against our picks - that's a great insurance plan. Even if you plan on betting with us, it's nice to know your other picks are insured. That's good stuff.

Now let's get to our second Friday Five of this young season.

Friday Five Week 1 Record: 3-2 ATS*

Friday Five Season to Date: 3-2 ATS

*I missed on a bonus pick on Monday, but Marco had nothing to do with that.

NFL Week 2 Friday Five Confidence Picks

5. Jacksonville Jaguars (+6) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS: If the Jaguars can jump out to a seventeen point lead against the Philadelphia Eagles before losing by two and a half touchdowns, we have no doubt they can lose to the Redskins by less than two field goals. This is definitely a play against the Redskins rather than for the Jags. Nonetheless, take the points.

4. Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) over SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: Let's face it. The Seattle Seahawks are still very good at playing football. Until proven otherwise, we're rolling with them to have dominating wins against everyone except maybe the Forty Niners. Give up the points at number four.

3. Kansas City Chiefs (+13) over DENVER BRONCOS: Two many points. The Colts caught the Broncos coasting in the second half and almost completed a comeback last week. No doubt that will be a wake-up call to Denver, but in a division game this early in the year with players still healthy and fired up, there's no way an Andy Reid teams goes to Mile High unprepared. Although the Chiefs are only 4-8 ATS in their last 12 division games, computer predictions (Marco and I flicking folded up papers through each others pointer fingers) have this game coming down to the wire with the Broncos eking out a 34-31 victory.

2. Detroit Lions (+2.5) over CAROLINA PANTHERS: The public is so ridiculous jumping all over the Detroit Lions just because they manhandled the clearly inferior New York Giants at home Monday Night. And by ridiculous, I mean they're absolutely right. We don't usually back Monday Night winners because they don't have value, but here's the stat that sold us: Carolina is just 5-15 SU and 5-14-1 ATS in home openers since entering the league, including 0-8-1 ATS as a favorite. Cam or no Cam, we'll take those odds, the Lions, and the points thank you very much.

1. Houston Texans (-2.5) over OAKLAND RAIDERS: Last week the Houston Texans handled their business at home against the Washington Redskins, sparking the "new team new season" conversations that come with early season success. Meanwhile, the Raiders went to New York and instilled hope in Jets fans that they might be blessed with another mediocre team this season. Dating back to last year, however, we all know both of these teams have struggled. The Texans are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games and the Raiders are 1-4 ATS/0-5 SU, and if my memory serves me correctly they were better at covering large spreads on the road than small ones at home. That being said, the UNDER 40 looks great. Officially, however, we're rolling with Harvard grad and current Wonderlic Score leader Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Houston Texans to move to 2-0 SU/ATS. It's going to be ugly.

I'm grateful that's late rather than never. Tell us what you're grateful for in the comments section. Be honest - we'll still be your Facebook friends.

May the Spreads Be With You,

Vinny and Marco

NFL Picks Week 1: MNF Giants vs Lions ATS

2014-09-08T07:38:00.000-07:00

I know, it's only Monday and I'm back at the keyboard. What did we learn yesterday? Too much to squeeze into a five minute post before I head to my real job, but let's just say Marco and I didn't forget how to pull pieces of paper out of a hat. To be fair, picking NFL games before Week 5 is why we call gambling "expensive guessing," and even Tiger Woods would love shoot par these days, so a chance at a 3-2 week with the Chargers tonight feels like a win.

What feels even more like a win was the influx of e-mails from readers such as Jeff, Dan, John, Tony, and of course Manny the Great. I'm hoping Dally is still around to see that we picked his Cowboys yesterday, and I'm really hoping my former coastal neighbor Bobby is hear to watch the baseball Gaints come back and win the National League West this month. I'm sorry I missed you in Anderson Valley, buddy, but North Carolina was kind of like a nicer, richer, giant (even more historic) Boonville.

The reason I'm writing today is because I wanted to share some stats about tonight's games to explain why we're backing both underdogs. First of all, it's Week 1 which is every team's Super Bowl. Secondly, sometimes there are compelling stats that you have to buck or follow in order to win. Here's why we like the Chargers and the Giants plus the points.

*Don't forget to check out our friends at 1Vice. Just click on the link to the right. If you're on a losing streak or picked football like we did last year, you'll love their 40% gambler's insurance in September. Get back 40% of what your net losses if you call them on October first. That'll feel better when you pick the Lions or the Cardinals tonight.

Giants @ Lions–Giants started 0-1 last three years; they’re lost three of last
four road openers, with 12 of last 14 going over total. Detroit lost six of last seven
games last year, one of which was 23-20 (-9) Week 16 debacle to Giants; Big
Blue’s two TD’s were on 49-yard drive and defensive score. The Lions out rushed
them 148-41, still lost; that doesn’t happen a lot. Big Blue won last three series
games by total of 17 points; they won last five visits to Motor City. Lions have
new coaches, Giants have new offense that struggled to gel in preseason. Lions
won last three home openers, scoring 36.3 ppg; they’re 7-1-1 vs spread in last
nine HO’s, with last four going over total. Last three years, Giants are 11-6 as
road underdogs.

*That was a lot of stolen information, but we're bucking the 7-1-1 Lions and
following the 11-6 underdog Giants. Take the points in Motor City.

Chargers @ Cardinals-- San Diego is 9-3 in last dozen series games, winning
last three by 8-7-31 points; they won three of four visits here, but haven’t been
in desert since ’02, before dome opened. Chargers are 8-3-1 as road underdogs
last two years; they covered three of four vs. NFC LY, after being 0-8 previous
two seasons. Bolts won four of last five Week 1 road openers; five of their last
seven road openers went over total. Cardinals were 5-1-1 as favorites in Arians’
first year, after covering only five of previous 20 games when favored. Arizona
won six of last seven home openers (5-2 vs. spread); they‘re 6-1-1 vs. spread
in Week 1 last eight years.

*If Arizona were the home dog, we'd back them - but in this case we're taking the
second year offense of coach McCoy and company. Take the points with the Bolts.

May the Spreads Be With You,

Vinny and Marco

NFL Picks Week 1: Eagles vs Jaguars ATS Pick

2014-09-05T08:11:00.003-07:00

NFL Picks Week 1: Cowboys vs Niners Pick ATS

What's up TSZers? Vinny and Marco are back in the house - quite literally my living room - and we're ready to rebound from our sophomore slump and take the NFL handicapping community by storm. Truth be told, if you'd asked me about the future of TSZ two days ago, I would have told you I was ready to trade in my keyboard for a career as a commentator, a used car mogul, or insatiable crack fiend. Marco was on same page - especially about the crack - and together we were scripting our farewell to gambling tweet-stagram.

That's when the fan mail began to pour in. Just one or two at first but then..a third one. And although it turned out to be spam, the heartfelt concern for men with erectile dysfunction coupled with the fact that I drafted my fantasy team, purchased the Sunday Ticket, and remembered how much I really love football and gambling, tipped the scales towards our return. So here we are, everyone, and to the work ethic and family values police in our minds we say, "C'mon, Man." After all, it's only 17 weeks... We promise we'll be productive, loving, and useful employees/fathers/husbands come playoff time.

As a compromise, however, because we don't really want to get fired from our jobs or families, Marco and I are doing this Phil Jackson-style - no road games, better, taller, elitist leather chairs, and we're only committing to our formerly successful Friday Five until we see how our time management/obsessive compulsive tendencies reveal themselves as the weeks unfold. For now, lets' get to some freakin' picks for Pete's sake.

We know, Mr. Rose, that the other side says, "I should have bet on football."

****************************************************

Before we get to our Friday Five, I would be remiss not to mention our new unofficial (so unofficial it's not even true) sponsors at 1Vice, a gaming company that puts the bling in gambling and the money in your pocket in a variety of unique ways. If you sign up with 1Vice today and a deposit $300 or more you will not only get 150% free play but you will also receive 40% gambler's insurance for the month of September.

Since I hate it when people say "You do the math," I'll do the math for you. A $300 deposit today earns you 450 in free play plus an additional $120 rebate on the first of October. That's $870 worth of NFL betting for your $300 investment. Smaller deposits are also eligible for 100% free play bonuses, so click on the link to the right, and check out the details. Even if you don't take the bonus with the rollover rules, you'll still get your rebate heading into next month. It's a pretty sweet deal, their customer service is outstanding, and they have a variety of deposit and withdrawal methods.

****************************************************

Seriously - we don't recommend gambling, but if you're going to do it we may as well get an affiliate advertising credit for referring you. Now for f's sake can we please get to the freakin' point????

NFL Week 1 Friday Five (from least to most confident)

5. DALLAS COWBOYS (+5) over San Francisco Forty Niners: Why the heck not? The Niners looked terrible in the pre-season, and the only thing their defense has been able to lock up these days is its own players...in handcuffs. Sure the Cowboys are notoriously unpredictable and often slow to start, but this line opened up at -3.5 and was pushed as high -5.5 by Dallas Cowboys haters around the world. The Niners are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games, finished last season 12-4 SU, but let's face it - their offense has been underwhelming since Kaepy took the helm. The Cowboys defense will certainly help them look better, but it will only be enough for a marginal victory. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have struggled at home going 6-13 ATS in their last 19, but they're 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home openers. The value is in the home dog in this one, and we're rolling with the 'Boys at number five.

4. San Diego Chargers (+3) over ARIZONA CARDINALS: This should be a fun game with second year head coaches Mike McCoy and Bruce Arians both demonstrating their capabilities with solid 2013 campaigns. The Chargers made the playoffs and beat the Bengals in the Wild Card last season while the Cards fell just short in a much more competitive NFC. Although these two teams had a field goal contest a couple of weeks ago - a 12-9 preseason Chargers win - the stakes will be much higher on Monday Night. Unfortunately for Arizona fans, the Cards have been a disappointing 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 MNF games, and although San Diego's best defense is holding onto the ball on offense, they are one of the more dominant Prime Time teams, covering the spread in 4 of their last 5 Monday night games along with 8 of their last 10 as road dogs. Once again, take the points and the Bolts at number four.

3. BALTIMORE RAVENS (-1) over Cincinnati Bengals: Oh boy, the AFC North is back in full effect and we have eight, grueling, defensive, trench wars to look forward to over the course of the season. This one will set the trend and although both clubs have the makings of potent down field passing attacks, they also have quarterbacks who can be prone to taking sacks. The Ravens’ Joe Flacco was sacked 48 times a season ago, while the Bengals’ Andy Dalton was taken down 46 times in 2012. This game will likely come down to the team that hits on a big play. With history as our guide, we will avoid voting for a member of the Bush family, but we will always vote for the home team in this series as they have covered 8 of the past 9 meetings. That's almost as money as betting against the Bengals on the road (2-6-1 ATS in their last 9). Take the birds at number three.

2. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-10) over Jacksonville Jaguars: Forget the fact that Marco and I both drafted Nick Foles as our fantasy starting quarterback this season. No, we don't co-GM and do everything in our lives together. That would be ridiculous. And that would also be baseball, where a first round playoff bye has earned us the week off just in time to really enjoy football. What you should remember, however, is the fact that the Eagles wins in 2013 came by an average of 14.5. The OVER 51.5 might be an even better play here, but we'll bet on the Eagles to reverse their 6-21-1 ATS trend at home this season with a three touchdown win over the Jags.

1. MIAMI DOLPHINS (+5) over New England Patriots: Yesterday at the grammar school we were playing Feelings Charades where kids pick emotions out of a hat and try to act them out for the class. One student - who concerns me a bit at times - picked "Excited," then just stood there and shook his head at guesses like "Nervous," "Annoyed," "Mad," He's pretty straight-faced, with an edge of unpredictability. I said, "Wow. Looks like we have the Bill Belichick of grammar schoolers. Nobody laughed. On the other side of the ball, I saw a headline that read "Joe Philbin wants Miami to score more." Sounds like a formula for success to me. It also sounds like he might be the coach Popavich of the NFL who gets annoyed with reporters and just gives them dumb, obvious answers. I like that in a coach, and I think Philbin and PHIlbiNs make the playoffs this year. That begins with defending their home field in a Week1 upset victory.

So there you have it - our first Friday Five of the 2014-15 season. Please light up the comments section below to tell us just how right/wrong/crazy/stupid/funny/annoying/brilliant we are. Or just a welcome yourselves back to the TSZ Community for another year. Remember, everyone...We may not have it all together, but together we have it all.

May the Spreads Be With You,

Vinny and Marco

NFL Picks Week 1: Cardinals vs Chargers ATS Pick

2014-09-05T08:11:00.000-07:00

NFL Picks Week 1: Cowboys vs Niners Pick ATS

That's when the fan mail began to pour in. Just one or two at first but then..third one. And although it turned out to be spam, the heartfelt concern for men with erectile dysfunction coupled with the fact that I drafted my fantasy team, purchased the Sunday Ticket, and remembered how much I really love football, gambling, tipped the scales towards our return. So here we are, everyone, and to the work ethic and family values police in our minds we say, "C'mon, Man." After all, it's only 17 weeks... We promise we'll be productive, loving, and useful employees/fathers/husbands come playoff time.

We know, Mr. Rose, that the other side says, "I should have bet on football."

****************************************************

NFL Week 1 Friday Five (from least to most confident)

NFL Picks Week 1: Ravens vs Bengals Pick ATS

2014-09-05T08:10:00.000-07:00

NFL Picks Week 1: Cowboys vs Niners Pick ATS

We know, Mr. Rose, that the other side says, "I should have bet on football."

****************************************************

NFL Week 1 Friday Five (from least to most confident)

NFL Picks Week 1: Dolphins vs Patriots ATS Pick

2014-09-05T08:08:00.000-07:00

NFL Picks Week 1: Cowboys vs Niners Pick ATS

We know, Mr. Rose, that the other side says, "I should have bet on football."

****************************************************

NFL Week 1 Friday Five (from least to most confident)

NFL Picks Week 1: Cowboys vs Niners Pick ATS

2014-09-05T07:42:00.001-07:00

We know, Mr. Rose, that the other side says, "I should have bet on football."

****************************************************

NFL Week 1 Friday Five (from least to most confident)