• Two Billion Dementia Patients
• Sudden Cardiac Deaths Rise by 10% in Young Americans
• Police Privatisation: ‘£5 Million Could Be Wasted’

Are those numbers really big?  Politicians love to create a stir and news paper owners pay journalists to shock.  Those big numbers they use do the job perfectly.  They cause us to stop, thank and react, but should we be frightened or are they just fooling us?

Next time you are faced with a shocking statistic, ask yourself a simple question;

“Is that a big number?”

Two Billion Dementia Patients

The story – by the end of 2050 the number of people expected to have Dementia is 2 billion.

2 billion, is that a big number?

The population of the earth in 2012 was 7 billion.  By 2050 there will be nearer 10 billion.  So according to the headline 1 person in every 5 will have dementia.

Now that is a scary thought, but does it sound likely to you?  Probably not.

I re-read the article (a little more carefully).  What it says is that the “population at risk of having the disease is two billion”.  Or 1 in 5 of us may eventually go senile as we get older.

Don’t get me wrong, senility is tragic to see, my father lost his mind before he died, but he did die at the ripe old age of 86 with 8 grand children.

2 billion doesn’t look so scary when you think about it like that.  It probably means there will be more dementia because we will all live longer.  Maybe that is a good thing,  I wonder what will happen to the other 4 in 5 of us.

Sudden Cardiac Deaths Rise by 10% in Young Americans

The story – the number of adolescents and young adults dying each year from sudden cardiac arrest in the US rose by about 10% between 1989 and 1996

10%, is that a big number?

The news article goes on to say that the number of sudden cardiac deaths in the 15–34 age group went up from 2,724 in 1989 to 3,000 in 1996.  An increase of 276 deaths.

Is that a problem?  The population of the US is 316 million.  The average life expectancy of a US Citizen is 78.94 years (call it 80 to help with my maths).  So the number of people in the 20 year age range (15 to 34) is roughly a quarter of 316 million which is 79 million.

The shocking 10% annual increase is 276 people in every 79 million.  Or 1 extra death in every 286 thousand people (about the size of the city I live in).

I have no doubt it is very sad for those involved, but in Afghanistan 1 in 5 children doesn’t even reach school age.  We should all be so lucky.

Police Privatisation: ‘£5 Million Could Be Wasted’

The story – UK police forces could spend up to £5 million in their search for a private partnership which might never go ahead.

£5 million, is that a big number?

In the UK there are 132,235 police officers.  £5,000,000 is £37 a head, or about the price of a set of boots.  The total police budget is £5.63bn.  £5 million is about one thousandth of the total spend (and that is before the “coulds” and “mights” in the story).

I am happy to believe that the UK government wastes money, it spends £695 billion a year, I am sure they are flushing my tax money away at an alarming rate, but police private partnerships (successful or not) don’t even count as a drop.

So ask yourself, is that a big number

Next time you get excited about a budget challenge or poor performance figures remember that a number by itself is meaningless; put it in context.  Size is relative.

Sit back and ask yourself; “is that a big number?”  If it’s not, go and find a bigger one to worry about.

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It wasn’t a half-baked telling off.

It was a full on balling out.

I was so angry, I must have screamed at her for 10 minutes.

The poor little mite was in floods of tears by the time I finished.  She sobbed for half an hour.

Why was I so angry?

She stepped into the road without looking.

It is my worst nightmare that my children are killed by some fool using a mobile phone instead of watching the road.

We hear horror stories about children being abducted, but if anything happens to mine it won’t be a kidnapping, it will be a man in a white van not watching the road.

It makes me shudder to even think about it.

Ripping into her didn’t help

When I finally calmed down and the fear and frustration had abated I said to her

“Don’t you know how to cross the road?”

she replied:

“No, not really”

This isn’t the first time I have put the fear of God into her, but screaming at her hasn’t told her what to do.  I assumed she had been taught at school, but apparently not.

She was just following me down the street.

How is she supposed to know how to cross the road if I have never really shown her?

It’s not just my daughter

How many times have you put up posters telling people that “The Customer is King” or “Safety Matters” then balled out your staff and put them on performance improvement plans without ever giving them the method, tools and training to do the right thing?

Will they know what to do better next time?

A goal without a method is cruel – W.Edwards Deming

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Is that a rather harsh question?  Perhaps, but the answer may well have a lot more to do with you than with them.

Why do some people do better than others?

In 1968 Rosenthal and Jacobsen started to look at under achievement among school children.  Why do some children do better than others?

Their theory was that it was all to do with intelligence.   If you tested children’s I.Q. you could predict which children would do well and which wouldn’t.

So they ran a test.

They ran a succession of sophisticated intelligence tests across children in different school classes.  Using this data they identified the children who they thought showed “dramatic potential growth” and those who unfortunately, did not.

Then they sense checked the results with the school staff and teachers and left.

Eight months later

Rosenthal and Jacobsen returned to the school and re-ran the tests.

Their predictions were proven correct.  The children highlighted as having superior potential showed a marked increase in I.Q. over the intervening period when compared to the other, “normal” children.

It is all about I.Q.

The sting in the tail

Whilst the I.Q. tests were real and the results were also statistically valid there was a twist.  The experimenters allocated children to the “potential” and “normal” groups entirely randomly.

The increased test results had nothing to do with the children’s intellectual potential at all.

It had nothing to do with the children and everything to do with the teachers

If a teacher believed that a child was exceptional then the child became exceptional.  It was a self-fulfilling prophecy (sometimes called the Pygmalion effect)

It would have been ethically irresponsible to create a “sub-normal” group in the eyes of the teachers.  I’ll leave it to your own judgement what the implications would have been.

So are your team high performers or losers?

And is that down to them?

Or you?

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What I do believe is true though is that money can de-motivate.

As Professor Noriaki Kano of Kano model fame would say, money is simply a basic need.  Or to use an old gag, you have two hopes of delighting your entire workforce with your compensation and benefits strategy:

1. No Hope
2. Bob Hope

So how do you meet those basic needs?

In his book Drive the author Dan Pink puts the case for three compensation and benefit rules.

Rule 1:  Treat people fairly

If people within an organisation feel that they are all paid equitably for their contribution then they will be happy with what they are paid.

Rule 2:  Pay slightly over the average

If your staff feel that your company pays well for the industry then they are less likely to leave and they won’t be disgruntled.

Rule 3:  If you must pay bonuses don’t pay much

Make your incentives small (if you are paying above average they don’t need to be large) and make sure you link them to a variety of performance measures.  That way your staff are less likely to cheat, and if they try, it becomes far harder to game the system.

Now you don’t have to believe any of this

So far it is just opinion and conjecture.  There is no science and I would always implore you to test and learn and avoid jumping to conclusions on little or no evidence.

So where is my evidence?

Well it comes in the form of a monkey.  I did promise you one.  Watch the video and then let me know what you think inequitable pay schemes do for morale.

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Everybody wants quick wins and big results

Most people want to make quick and easy changes that yield big results. Who doesn’t want something quicker, easier, and cheaper?

We are no longer satisfied with mediocre results. Not that long ago we were content with dial-up internet. Dial-up was all we knew in most households. However, the mere thought of utilizing an unsteady, slow dial-up internet connection today, would send shivers up anyone’s spine.

We expect giant leaps forward.

We are always in the process of improvement, hence the term continuous improvement.

But continuous improvement isn’t about giant leaps

Continuous improvement is not about taking giant leaps, but more about taking many small steps that will eventually lead to greater impacting results.

So what are the components that you need to make continuous improvement an effective practice?

Continuous improvement is about commitment

Let’s clear the air here:

• Continuous improvement is not a quick fix
• It cannot be successfully implemented overnight.
• It will not happen on its own
• And will most likely fail if employees and staff are not fully committed to embracing changes.

Continuous Improvement must start with a commitment between management and employees to engage in waste elimination.

Continuous Improvement is about communication

Employees are a valuable resource in helping to find waste since they are in the work environment every day. This is why communication is so important, when employees openly communicate with management the possibilities are almost endless, issues only seen by shop floor employees may be completely overlooked by office staff and vice versa.

It is vital that communication flows in all directions and that employees feel empowered to share and take part.

Continuous Improvement is about patience

The essential goal is to remove waste!

All processes and practices should be reviewed and broken apart piece by piece to find potential wastes. Transparency is key. Many wastes are underlying and take time to uncover and eliminate.

Moving too quickly when evaluating processes for waste is generally ineffective.

Continuous Improvement is an ongoing practice

One common mistake that has plagued improvement ambitions time and time again is managers becoming satisfied with results too soon and stopping.

One large business I worked with started on the improvement road with great success. All members of management as well as employees were on board, weekly meetings were held to communicate, share ideas, wonders, and improvements in the work. However, after many little changes were made in processes and practices the drive started to slow down.

As management became a little less engaged in improvement, employees did as well. Employees began to fall back into previous ways and continuous improvement ultimately came to a halt. All that hard work in the beginning ultimately led to a failed effort.

It is crucial to embrace improvement as an ongoing, never-ending practice or it will not survive the test of time.

It is about small steps and lots of them

Engaging in continuous improvement is all about taking little steps in waste elimination to reach greater goals of effectiveness and efficiently. However, it takes commitment, communication, patience and practice to really address process improvements correctly and efficiently.

There is a reason slow and steady wins the race.

Antonio Ferraro writes on behalf of Creative Safety Supply

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But if we are spending all that money on education, it is also sensible to make sure it isn’t going to waste, it is sensible to make sure we are getting the best from your school system and teachers.

How do you check the school system?

Conventional wisdom will tell you it is simple.  Set up a school inspectorate.  Hire a bunch of ex teachers, give them inspectors badges and send them around the schools to see how effective the teaching is.

If the teaching is good, write a glowing report.  If the teaching is bad sack the teachers and get some new ones.  After all, teaching is all about the staff you employ.

Would you welcome in the inspectors?

Imagine how it feels to be a teacher in an inner city school, with little funding and a deprived catchment area.  How does it feel when the inspectors come knocking on your door?

Would you welcome their opinion ~ or ~ fear for your job?

So how do you beat the inspector?

In the 1970’s a friend of mine (true story, honestly) attended one of those inner city schools in the heart of Glasgow when the inspector came calling.

The inspector wanted to check that the children were engaged and that they were learning.  To check that the teacher was teaching.

But the teacher had other plans.  The teacher wanted to keep her job.  The teacher had a cunning ruse.

The teacher briefed my friend and her classmates before the inspector came into the room.

• If you know the answer to my questions raise your right hand.
• If you don’t know the answer to my questions raise your left hand

Easy really, all the inspector saw was a roomful of bright children who knew the answers to all the questions.  He wrote that glowing report.

The worst bit

The worst bit wasn’t that the inspector was duped.

The worst bit wasn’t that the inspections didn’t work.

The worst bit wasn’t even the woeful misuse of my taxes.

The worst bit was that the children grew up believing that the really important thing wasn’t education, and knowing the answers.  They grew up thinking that the really important thing was learning how to beat the inspector.

Mind you that was the 1970’s.  I am sure it has all changed now.

Whenever there is fear, you will get wrong figures ~ W. Edwards Deming

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At the end of each journey a steward passes through the carriages with a big plastic bag, collecting the rubbish.  They never look too enamored with their job.

This morning the steward entered the carriage and announced with a flourish:

Any rubbish

Laptops

iPads

Mobile Phones

£50 notes

If you are not taking it with you, put it in the bag

He smiled, I smiled, everybody in the carriage smiled but I bet you one of those £50 notes that if his manager had been there, or better still his compliance or PR executives they would not have been so amused.

They would have been mortified

• He was off brand
• He was irresponsible
• His behaviour was totally inappropriate for a 21st century railway

Why do we take ourselves so seriously?

Why do we enforce rules that are so serious, that don’t allow our employees a little fun?

• Does it make our customers happier?
• Does it engage your employees?
• Does it make us more money?

Or are we just rearranging the deck chairs?  There is enough misery in the world without adding to it. How bad would it be if we lightened up?

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I am still emotionally scared by my sister’s attempts to play the violin 30 years ago and a friend of mine was foolish enough to buy his son a 5 piece drum set, Lord alone knows what he was thinking.

A flute is a (relatively) quiet and melodic instrument.

But she doesn’t practice

I am spending a small fortune on flute lessons (not to mention the cost of the flute) but she doesn’t really practice much.

Which is odd, because she enjoys it when she can do it, but practice is hard.  Practice displays the Goldilocks syndrome.

• If it is too easy, if a tune is something that she can play well she gets bored, she doesn’t enjoy it.
• Yet if the tune is too hard, she gets frustrated because she doesn’t believe she can do it and then she doesn’t enjoy it either.

For her to enjoy it , a tune must be just right, difficult enough to be a challenge but not so difficult that she gives up.

It isn’t just her

We all get bored with tasks that are too easy and anxious when we have tasks that are too hard.

Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi makes this point beautifully in his book Flow: The Psychology of Happiness.  He added a perceptive diagram that explains it even further:

He argues that there is a place between boredom and anxiety where the challenge of the task matches the skill of the individual.  That is the place he believes the state of flow is achieved.

Watching my daughter, I’d guess that flow and motivation are intrinsically linked.

Which causes a music teacher endless problems

• How do you match up the skill of the pupil to the difficulty of the piece?
• How wide is the “flow” channel”?
• How do you keep that balance as a pupil’s level of skill increases?

But it is worse for a manager

It is one thing teaching music with a defined syllabus and a clear skill set.  It is something all together different trying to balance skill and challenge when your staff are answering phones or moving pallets or stacking shelves all day.

So adding a little challenge and accountability to their daily work must be a good thing.

But not too much.  Your staff might not dissolve into a flood of tears or scream that they “hate you”.

But they might just think it.

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Imagine you were an employee of a large business.  You worked in a factory, or a shop, or a warehouse or maybe you were an agent in a call centre.

A big call centre where they measured your every move:

• how long your calls were
• how long your breaks were
• how many tasks you completed
• when you went to the loo

Every single time you did something “out of adherence” your supervisor came down on you like a ton of bricks.  You were given no leeway, you were treated like a child.  There was not an ounce of trust.

How would you feel?

Would you like some revenge?

Now imagine you were asked to do some things that weren’t measured…

Perhaps recording the reasons why customers have called in.  Categorising those reasons onto a call recording log.

Would you have entered those reasons correctly? Or would you have got some payback, taken the opportunity to mess with the system, exacted some revenge.  What would you have done?

How adult are you?

I’ll be honest with you, if you treat me like a child, I’m going to act like one.  I can’t help myself.  Maybe you have more moral fiber than I do.  Maybe you are better than that.

I bet your agents aren’t.

Of course the story is hypothetical

Nobody would ever run a call centre like that and if they did they wouldn’t be foolish enough to make a multi-million pound investment in a brand new, all singing, all dancing customer service website.

One based on months of statistical analysis of agent coded call reason data.

Nobody would be that dumb.

Would they?

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So of course we want to see all the information available and then some, before a decision is made.  The more information we have the happier and more confident we feel in our actions.  After all, you can never have too much information.

Can you have too much information?

In the 1960’s Stuart Oskamp carried out an experiment on a group of psychologists:

He gave them all a case study about Joseph Kidd, a 29-year-old man who was experiencing “adolescent maladjustment”.  The case study came in four parts:

1. Joseph Kidd was introduced as a war veteran who worked in a florists
2. Joseph’s childhood up to the age of 12 was discussed
3. Joseph’s further education was shared
4. Finally Joseph’s experience in Vietnam was detailed

After each part of the case study the psychologists provided two pieces of information:

• The answers to a multiple-choice questionnaire about Joseph’s condition
• An estimate of how accurate they thought those answers were

More information gives greater confidence

As you would expect, as the psychologists were given progressively more and more information their certainty in their diagnoses increased.  They became more and more confident.

But it doesn’t improve accuracy

But it didn’t improve the accuracy of their diagnoses one bit.

As the information became richer the psychologists went back over their existing answers, progressively refining and changing them, but their accuracy remained static.

So you can have too much information

Having more and more data to play with has three downsides:

1. It takes time and effort to acquire and process information
2. It becomes more and more difficult to see the wood from the trees
3. (And most worrying) Lots of data leads to overconfidence.

To twist an old adage “overconfidence comes before a fall.”

So how do you cope in a data rich world?

As with most things the Pareto principle comes into play.  Some of the information we have is vitally important, but most of it is negligible.

So the trick is to be clear about what the data is that you need before you start, not continually play with and add to the information you have.

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