Two posts - one from Eric Deggans and another by Wayne Garcia - prompted me to post.

You see, the newspaper industry is dying. Advertising is down. Classified ads are almost gone. Subscriptions are declining. Faint strains of “Na na na na. Hey hey hey. Good bye.” can be heard all over.

But, like a smoker who refused to stop when diagnosed with emphysema, the news industry’s death is it’s own fault. It is dying because it will not (can not?) adapt fast enough to the changing market place.

Ah, but I have a cure. It’s not easy. Newspapers have to rethink everything. But it’s a three step process.

The first solution: stop printing. There is no need for newsprint when computer storage and bandwidth are continuing to get cheaper and cheaper and cheaper. Delivery costs are going up, especially as fuel charges go through the roof. Paper isn’t getting less expensive either.

The future on news is delivery via the Internet — text, audio, video. It’s easy. It’s becoming ubiquitous. So why hold fast to 500 year old technology?

The second solution: understand the wisdom of crowds. From disseminated reporting to “digg” like functions, news directors need to follow Benjamin Disraeli (”There go my people. I must find where they are going, so I may lead them.“)

Editors and news directors need to stop trying to control what they think is or is not “newsworthy.” Give people the power to create their own, individual “newspaper” by selecting from a wide array of topics and stories. (RSS Feed readers come to mind).

The last solution: fewer stories from a broad angle, and more stories that are targeted to narrow audiences. There is a reason why the Long Tail model works for so many websites. Why can’t news companies understand this?

Until newspapers understand the basic tenets of how the world is changing, they will not understand the cure.

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Of course, avid State of Sunshine readers will recall my post on the electoral map from last July, where I came to the same conclusion. Although my rationale for the GOP winning Florida was different (I thought Crist’s popularity would be holding strong through next year — and it still may).

Adam Smith posted, on the Times‘ Buzz Blog, the 2004 results with swing states highlighted:

Adam provides his insight into these swing states as well in a separate article.

Here is my map from back in July:

I built it on the website 270towin.com. Give it a try yourself. (And fellow bloggers - post your images on your blog, and comment here with a link!)

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But take a look for yourself:

Okay, so based on the percentages I listed above, the pledge regular and super delegates through the rest of the primaries would leave Obama 132 delegates short of the nomination, and Clinton 261 delegates short.

There are 351 super delegates left who have not committed to either candidate.

Okay, but what about this solution:

Hillary Clinton agrees the 55 “Uncommitted” delegates in Michigan would be awarded to Barack Obama. Barack Obama agrees to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates based on the results from the January primaries.

How would that look?

If Obama stands up and is the bigger man — he comes within a hair’s breadth of the nomination.

He would only need 10 super delegates — or perhaps to win a handful more delegates in the remaining primaries — and he wins the nomination.

So here it is… this Republican has the idea to save the Democrats:

Obama needs to let the Michigan and Florida results stand. Clinton needs to give Michigan’s uncommitted delegates to Obama.

Why doesn’t anyone in the Democratic party get this?

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Other people, mostly Hillary Clinton supporters, are calling on the DNC to let the Florida vote stand.

Well, my friends, let me be the first to tell you:

It makes no difference.

None.

Zip.

Why?

Florida would have 185 pledged delegates. If the primary results stood, Hillary would get a little more than 100 and Obama would get around 70, the rest would have gone to Edwards. Clinton would go from 1,243 pledged to 1,348; Obama would go from 1,404 to 1,471. Add in the Michigan votes and you get Clinton 1,421 and Obama at 1,526.

So if Obama plays the bigger man, Clinton gets a net gain of 56 delegates… even if you count the superdelegates (Clinton is leading them 237 to 207) We would be looking at a contest that has Obama ahead 1,733 to 1,658. Remember 2,025 are needed to secure the nomination.

Doing these primaries over might change those numbers a bit, make them closer or spread Edwards’ votes between the two candidates. But we’re not talking any real landslide changes here.

Okay, by now you’re asking how this might impact the remaining primaries.

• Pennsylvania (4/22) - 158
• Guam (5/3 ) - 4
• Indiana (5/6) - 72
• North Carolina (5/6) - 115
• West Virginia (5/13) - 28
• Kentucky (5/20) - 51
• Oregon (5/20) - 52
• Montana (6/3) - 16
• South Dakota (6/13) - 15
• Puerto Rico (6/7) - 55

There are only 566 pledged delegates at stake in the 10 primaries left in the 2008 cycle. With Michigan and Florida results counted, Hillary can not win on pledged delegates alone and Obama has to win 89% of the votes to get to 2,025. Without Michigan and Florida, Obama can’t get there on pledged delegates either.

Thus, no matter what happens with Florida and Michigan, the 351 remaining unpledged Superdelegates will be the ones to decide this race. Period.

Vote numbers come from CNN’s website.

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The seat was fairly safe - held by a Republican for some time. Bob Allen and before him Republican Randy Ball.

But tonight, at least from what I can see on the Florida Department of State website, the seat was won by a Democrat.

Could it be a sign of things to come?

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John McCain has pretty much wrapped up the nomination — although I don’t think it’s really a forgone conclusion if Conservatives unite behind Huckabee, but that’s another post.

Because the race is over, the media coverage will drop off. It usually happens to both parties at about the same time. However, the Clinton-Obama horserace will mean the media day after day, night after night will be talking about and playing speeches by the Democrats.

The media are already biased enough, now they have a reason to feature the Democrats more than ever.

Meanwhile, mentions of McCain will be in passing. “Of course McCain wins the Texas primary… blah blah blah. Let’s take a closer look at Clinton-Obama…”

If Rudy Giuliani lost because he was not campaigning actively in the early states — and therefore was not in local media or on the national media campaigns — then how can the Republican party not suffer some negative impact from McCain fading into the background as well?

Some will point out the Republican Convention is after the Democrats. And that’s true it’s one week after. Which means we can count on the Democrats dominating the media until the end of August.

So this is what we have… a macrocosm of the Republican month of January. One candidate sitting out active campaigning until a later election. Other candidates constantly in the media for the next 7+ months.

Mitt said he backed out because he didn’t want to help elect Clinton or Obama.

Is it possible that by backing out, he is doing just that?

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The story I’m hearing is Romney is bowing out because he realized he can’t win and drawing it out further would only be detrimental to the GOP.

AP story from BrietBart:

John McCain effectively sealed the Republican presidential nomination on Thursday as chief rival Mitt Romney suspended his faltering presidential campaign.

“If I fight on in my campaign, all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign and make it more likely that Senator Clinton or Obama would win. And in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign, be a part of aiding a surrender to terror,” Romney will say at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington.

“This is not an easy decision for me. I hate to lose. My family, my friends and our supporters… many of you right here in this room… have given a great deal to get me where I have a shot at becoming President. If this were only about me, I would go on. But I entered this race because I love America, and because I love America, I feel I must now stand aside, for our party and for our country,” Romney said.

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Here is what we know.

Barack Obama won more states. Hillary Clinton won more delegates - barely. It’s neck and neck with a long way to go.

The LA Times primary tracker shows Clinton with 845 delegates and Obama with 765 delegates. If one candidate won every delegate going forward (which doesn’t happen in because Democratic primaries that award delegates proportionally, but we’re talking hypothetically here) either Obama or Clinton would need to sweep all states until Pennsylvania votes on April 22nd. With only 1,787 delegates left and 2,025 needed to win, if Obama and Clinton split the delegates 50-50, neither will have enough to win the nomination.

John McCain is the Republican front-runner with 615 delages. Huckabee was able to parlay his strong base in the south to wins, but with with 190 delegates, he’s still in third place to Mitt Romney’s 269. Still quite a ways to go on the GOP side as well.

Republicans have fewer delegates at stake in February, and if all three candidates stay in the race, the GOP could go until late April or even May based on the calendars going forward.

This will be the most interesting presidential primary since the Democrats in 1968…

For information, the New York Times has great calendar pages for the Democrats and Republicans.

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Dear Jim,

Over the past year, as I traveled around the country, people from all walks of life welcomed me into their homes and communities with open arms. From house parties to parades to town halls and rallies, I have shared in some wonderful moments with you all and for that I am eternally grateful.

Thank you for sharing your concerns with me. Thank you for working with me to provide our children with a brighter and more prosperous future. Thank you for your support and trust and faith. And thank you for being a part of this wonderful journey.

A New York Republican named Teddy Roosevelt once said ?aggressive fighting for the right is the noblest sport the world affords.? Like most Americans, I love competition. I don't back down from a principled fight.

But there must always be a larger purpose.

Elections are about more than just a candidate. Elections are about fighting for a cause larger than ourselves. They are about identifying the great challenges of our time and proposing new solutions.? Most of all, they are about handing our nation to the next generation better than it was handed to us.

Although we were unsuccessful in our endeavor, the fight to strengthen America goes on. Our nation's next President must understand and make a commitment to keep us on offense in the Terrorists' War on Us. He must understand that stimulating our economy requires cutting taxes, because you make better decisions with your money than Washington bureaucrats. He must be committed to ending illegal immigration and securing our borders. And he must use free-market principles to make health care more affordable for all Americans.

I believe John McCain is that man. He is the right leader to move us forward, unite our party and transform Washington. I hope that you will join me in supporting him to be the next President of the United States.

As I look forward to the road ahead, I am optimistic because I believe America's best days are still to come. Our country has a bright future, but we must work together to ensure that our shared prosperity creates new and better opportunities for us all.

Best Wishes,

Rudy Giuliani

Paid for by the Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee, Inc.

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First, the playing field shifted. After the first of the year, the major issue shifted from the war in Iraq and the broader war on terror to domestic issues. The discussion changed from an area of strength to an area of weakness for Giuliani.

Second, the American electorate really doesn’t pay attention until late in the game. And they get most of their information from the news. Thus, the fact that other candidates were in the media - with Huckabee, McCain, Romney, and McCain all getting a lot of press for their wins. This “earned media” trumps paid media any day.

So, Rudy did not have a strong message on the economy - and didn’t have much of a chance to spread his message if he did.

But I don’t think that is the real reason Rudy failed.

Bill Bennett on CNN said it well — Rudy looked like he was just going through the motions; like he was “trying out” a campaign. I only had one chance to see him in person, before the South Carolina primary, and I was not impressed. He lacked energy. He lacked charisma. He spoke well. He had good things to say. But I was uninspired.

With the right candidate, the strategy can work. It’s not about the gameplan, it’s the execution. A candidate like Ronald Reagan or Barack Obama, charismatic and energetic, could make it succeed. Rudy was just not the right candidate.

It will be interesting to see if the nomination process changes in 2012. If not, will another candidate have both the ability and the desire to repeat the Giuliani gambit?

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The big reason? Could it be the fact that Governor Charlie Crist took an active role in both?

An interesting note that McCain received almost 50% of the vote in Miami-Dade - thank you to Mel Martinez and McCain’s position on immigration.

Also, Crist endorsed Martinez in the 2004 Senate primary, before the election. Martinez endorsed Crist in the 2006 gubernatorial primary, before the election. Both Crist and Martinez endorsed McCain before the 2008 presidential preference primary election. Martinez won the general. Crist won the general. Will McCain win the general?

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I am not sure how much this all helps McCain. Republicans who vote in presidential primaries are usually more conservative. McCain’s previous success has come from independents - a segment of the electorate that can not vote in Florida.

The pundits are saying it’s a two-man race between Romney and McCain. I think it’s three-man race with Giuliani in the mix as well. Giuliani built a very strong organization here, and more than 400,000 Republicans have already voted — the kind of numbers that GOTV efforts can push.

Crist’s endorsement will have some impact… But it’s coming a bit too late in the race. It’s neck-and-neck-and-neck (despite what polls say)… and the winner will be somewhere around 27 - 30%.

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So here is why I voted for Rudy: to thumb my nose at Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

I don’t like the way this primary season has shaped up. There has to be a better way. That is where Rudy comes in.

Pundits have been talking about the strategy of waiting until Florida and Super Tuesday, calling the concept all kinds of things - none of them positive. By focusing the money on the bigger prizes - from staffing and organization to media - Giuliani is swinging for the fences. Yes, he could go down swinging; but he could also hit the biggest home run since Babe Ruth.

A Giuliani win would turn the primary world upside down. It would be like the introduction of the West Coast offense, the shot clock, and the designated hitter. The rules of the game would be changed forever.

In 2012, candidates can follow the same strategy. Skipping Iowa and New Hampshire for the bigger prizes. Depending on the calendar, you could see regionalization — a southern candidate focusing all his energy on the southern states, for example. Or you could see a focus on only the big states.

I don’t yet think the pundits have realized the potential impact of a Giuliani win here and next week. This is probably because all the polls they look at say it’s not gonna happen.

It may not. But since everything else, to me, was really equal — this seems to be as good a reason as any to pick a candidate.

[hr]

As a side note, I voted against Amendment 1. I don’t own a home, but will some day (hopefully) soon. When I do, I want more than the paltry effort the legislature as set before us. It’s time for our state and local governments to grow a backbone and provide real tax relief. This watered-down, sound-bite stuff just ain’t gonna cut it.

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Going in, I thought I had narrowed my choices to John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. With Tim Russert moderating, I thought the distinction would be highlighted and I would be able to compare all the candidates and make my selection.

Well, the candidates were all nice to each other, unlike the most recent Democratic debate. With the exception of Ron Paul, they pretty much all said the same thing. Immigration, taxes, the war in Iraq, the economy, the Clintons… The answers were all the same.

Now I am flummoxed.

Moreover, I am deeply concerned. The Republican nominee is going to be Mavertor Jott Huckiani.

There is no real difference between McCain, Romney, Giuliani, and Huckabee. Oh sure, their supporters will point to an issue here or an experience there. Shades of gray, really.

None of these candidates is inspiring. None of them reach out and grab me. None of them stand out clearly from the rest.

And if this is my reaction — a person with more than a decade of direct experience in politics, a person who studied political history and philosophy, a person who cares about politics a lot more than the average American — what does it mean for the rest of the country?

The Republican party is doomed, my friends.

And the worst part is, the Democrats will nominate Hillary Clinton. Last July target=”_blank”>I wrote three words that should care everyone: “President Hillary Clinton”.

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The Sunshine State is first.

We all know that Rudy Giuliani has been here, focused his efforts on building the grass roots network. Mitt Romney, the real leader in delegates, is also fighting here — looking to regain some momentum he hasn’t found since he faded in to a second place finish in Iowa. Meanwhle, John McCain, the national (media-designated?) front runner is leading in recent polls thanks to a bump from his South Carolina win.

However, there are two things that will affect votes and could affect polls later in the week. Mike Huckabee has all but left the state, focusing on less expensive states voting on Super Tuesday. Fred Thompson quit the race this week. Both of these candidates will lose support between now and election day — they were polling about 25% combined in recent polls, votes that will go to Giuliani, Romney, and McCain.

Another thing to remember, Florida is the first — THE FIRST — state where only Republicans can vote for these candidates. Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, South Carolina, and even Nevada allowed independents to vote in the Republican primaries and caucuses. These independent voters have helped propel McCain to where he is now. McCain can’t count on that support.

In fact, I would say here and now that Florida is a race between Romney and Giuliani. The winner will probably get about a third of the vote — 33%.

Then will come Super Tuesday.

Ah yes. An almost-National primary:

Alabama	Primary	48 delegates
Alaska	Caucus	29 delegates
Arizona	Primary	53 delegates
Arkansas	Primary	34 delegates
California	Primary	173 delegates
Colorado	Caucus	46 delegates
Connecticut	Primary	30 delegates
Delaware	Primary	18 delegates
Georgia	Primary	72 delegates
Illinois	Primary	70 delegates
Massachusetts	Primary	43 delegates
Minnesota	Caucus	41 delegates
Missouri	Primary	58 delegates
Montana	Caucus	25 delegates
New Jersey	Primary	52 delegates
New York	Primary	101 delegates
North Dakota	Caucus	26 delegates
Oklahoma	Primary	41 delegates
Tennessee	Primary	55 delegates
Utah	Primary	36 delegates
West Virginia	Caucus	30 delegates

That is some list. The South can be Huckabee country, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut could be for Giuliani. The upper midwest, as well as the mountain states will go for Romney. The West is strong for McCain. You could easily see all four candidates win several states each that night.

While the Florida winner will have some momentum, this strange election could stop that inertia in a heartbeat.

Hang on folks. It’s gonna be a bumpy ride.

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