Earlier this week by-elections took place to fill four vacant seats in the Canadian House of Commons. The overall outcome saw a net gain of two seats for Stephen Harper’s governing Conservative Party, one at the expense of the Bloc Quebecois, and the other being a seat returning to the Conservative fold after having been held by an ex-Conservative Independent. Meanwhile the Bloc and New Democrats respectively retained the other two seats.

New Westminster-Coquitlam, highlighted within Greater Vancouver.

The British Columbia riding of New Westminster-Coquitlam, which lies in the eastern suburbs of Vancouver, had been vacant since April when NDP MP Dawn Black resigned in order to contest (successfully) a seat at May’s provincial elections. Black had first served as an MP in the area from 1988 to 1993, when she lost her seat to Paul Forsyth of the Reform Party, a predecessor of the Conservatives. Black then returned to defeat Forsyth in 2006, and retained the seat by just 1,500 votes in 2008.

The new NDP candidate was Fin Donnelly, a city councillor in Coquitlam and noted environmental activist famed for undertaking marathon swims to raise awareness of river pollution issues. The NDP’s campaign focused heavily on an apparently contentious issue involving harmonisation of provincial and national taxation laws, which it seems everyone except the NDP believed was actually a provincial, not a federal issue.

Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup, shown in Eastern Quebec with Quebec City shown, with Montreal in the distance.

Challenging Donnelly from the Conservatives was Diana Dilworth, a city councillor from Port Moody, whose campaign appeared to focus heavily on law and order issues. The result was a comfortable win for Donnelly, who received 49.7% of the vote, an increase of 7.9% on the NDP’s vote share at last year’s general election. Dilworth’s 35.7% was down 3.1%, with the Liberals’ Ken Lee finishing a distant third on 10.3% (down 1%) and the Green Party’s Rebecca Helps on 4.3% (down 2.9%). Apparently widespread fears about the spread of swine flu at polling stations led election officials to advise voters that they could bring their own pens to mark their ballot papers with.

Over in the eastern Quebec riding of Montmagny—L’Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup, a by-election was forced when Bloc Quebecois MP Paul Crete, who had held the seat since its creation in 2004, and before that held other seats in the area since 1993, resigned in order to contest a provincial by-election in June, which he failed to win.

The Conservative candidate, a local Mayor, Bernard Genereux, overturned a 16% BQ majority at last year’s election to win the seat with 42.7% of the vote, defeating the BQ’s Nancy Gagnon on 37.7%. Behind them were Liberal Marcel Catellier on 13.2% (down 2.2%), Francois Lapointe of the NDP (or, that should be NPD since it’s Quebec) on 4.8% (down 0.7%) and the Greens’ Charles Marois on 1.7% (down 0.5%).

Hochelaga, shown within Montreal. Blue seats in this area were all won by the Bloc Quebecois

Also in Quebec, the Montreal riding of Hochelaga was up for grabs after the resignation of BQ MP Real Menard, Canada’s second-only openly gay MP, who’d held office since 1993, and also resigned to contest a lower political office, in this case Mayor of his local Montreal borough, which he won. Hochelaga is a Bloc stronghold, and this was reflected with the comfortable win of their new candidate Daniel Paille, who received 51.2% of the vote (up 1.5% on last election.

Whilst the Liberal Party had placed second in previous elections in this riding, they were overtaken on this occasion by the NDP (or NPD), whose candidate, Jean-Claude Rocheleau, was the only one of the eight in the field who actually lived in the seat. Rocheleau scored 19.6% (up 5.2%), with Robert David of the Liberals third on 14.3% (down 6.4%), then the Conservative Stephanie Cloutier on 10.1% (up 0.9%, the Conservatives poll very poorly in Montreal), the Green Party’s Christine Lebel on 3.3% (down 1%) and the remaining candidates under 1%.

Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley, surrounded by Nova Scotia (with Halifax to the south of the map), New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island.

Finally, over in Atlantic Canada, the Nova Scotia riding of Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley saw a by-election to replace Independent MP Bill Casey, who’d resigned to take up a posting as a senior official representing the Nova Scotia provincial government in Ottawa. Casey had been a Conservative MP, first elected for the predecessor Progressive Conservative Party in 1988, then losing his seat in 1993 before regaining it in 1997. He served as a critic (the Canadian equivalent of a Shadow Minister) in a number of portfolios whilst the Conservatives were in opposition.

In 2007 he crossed the floor to vote against the Harper government’s budget, claiming it breached an agreement on funding for the Atlantic provinces, and was subsequently expelled from the Conservative caucus and sat as an Independent MP from then on. His local Conservative Party re-endorsed him as their candidate for the 2008 election, but were over-ruled by head office. Standing as an Independent he was comfortably returned with a whopping 69% of the vote, with even the Green Party declaring their support for his re-election and declining to stand a candidate against him.

The riding had been a relatively safe Conservative area, and reverts to that status with Casey’s departure – Conservative candidate Scott Armstrong winning with 45.8%, comfortably ahead of 2nd placed Mark Austin of the NDP on 25.7%, Liberal Jim Burrows on 21.3%, the Green Party’s Jason Blanch on 3.3%, Jim Hnatiuk, the Leader of the Christian Heritage Party of Canada, on 3.2%, and Independent Kate Graves on 0.6%.

I’m not following Canadian politics all that closely at the moment, so I’m not really in a position to speculate much about what implications, if any, these results may have. However, I would have to say you could score it as a relatively good day for the NDP, and a relatively poor one for the Liberals, and the Green Party, who were well below their current standing of around 10% in national opinion polls. There may of course have been elements of what Canadians call ‘strategic voting’, or the British call ‘tactical voting’, involved in the relative performances of those three parties – I don’t know.

Update: I think I’ve got the hang of  it now, and I’ll be gradually going back over posts from October and November to give them identifying images, although I don’t plan to go back through the entire back-catalogue. You may also see other minor changes in coming weeks in the sidebar and possibly the featuring of federal election seat guides on the front page.

No doubt about it, Bartlett is a strong candidate for the Queensland Greens. His eleven years in the Senate give enormous credibility to his bid, and he has a strong record on various policy issues. Although he was previously a member of another party, his record suggests he fits in comfortably with Greens policy, something that cannot be said for some previous high-profile outside recruits. He has been strong on trademark Greens issues like refugees and environmental issues, while working in the difficult environment of the imploding Democrats following their support of the GST (which Bartlett opposed). On the other hand, it’s still to be seen how well he performs as a campaigner. His time as leader of the Democrats saw the party lose three of its seats and suffer a massive swing at the 2004 election.

To be fair to Bartlett, the downfall of the Democrats began before his leadership and leading the Democrats into the devestating 2004 election would have been extremely difficult for any politician. This brings me back to the point that we haven’t really seen how Bartlett can perform in a context outside of the Democrats. It’s also worth remembering that he didn’t just come into the Senate out of nowhere: he was a campaigner in Brisbane for years before he entered the Senate.

The Greens have preselected Bartlett to run in Brisbane, which covers the Brisbane CBD and nearby suburbs on the north side of the Brisbane River. However, it can’t be easily compared with the Greens marginals of Sydney and Melbourne. For a start, the Greens vote is lower, with the party polling 11.8% in the seat in 2007. In addition, the Liberal Party polls much more strongly in the seat. The seat covers the seat of Brisbane Central, which is one of the Greens’ four best state seats in Brisbane, as well as parts of Mount Coot-tha. However, the seat also includes parts of more northern seats and the Liberal seat of Clayfield to the east. The inner-city core that covers Sydney and Melbourne isn’t quite as large in Brisbane, making the seat of Brisbane more diverse and harder for the Greens.

While the ALP has held the seat of Brisbane for most of the last eighty years, it has regularly been a marginal seat, and the recent redistribution cut the margin from 6.8% to 3.8% by shifting the seat into Liberal-voting Clayfield. Greens strategy in Sydney and Melbourne revolves around overtaking a weak Liberal candidate and winning on preferences over a Labor candidate on a primary vote in the 40s. The Liberals aren’t going to run dead in Brisbane, with former member for the neighbouring seat of Petrie, Teresa Gambaro, recently preselected for Brisbane.

It’s going to be very hard for Bartlett to win in Brisbane in 2010, but he should be able to increase the vote for the Greens in the seat markedly and make it a local focus and a welcome injection of energy and new members for the Greens in Queensland, where the party has always struggled. I think it’s plausible he could get over 20% of the vote in the seat in a race where the sitting Labor MP is a low-profile member who has held the seat for almost two decades. Indeed, Bartlett has run against Arch Bevis in Brisbane before, at at the 1996 election before he was appointed to replace Cheryl Kernot in the Senate in 1997. The following graphs show that both the Greens and Democrats have traditionally polled higher in the Senate in Brisbane than in the House of Representatives, with the parties’ combined vote passing 20% in 1996 and 2001 and almost repeating the feat in 2007, when the Greens Senate vote was over 16%.

Elsewhere: Andrew blogs about it himself over at his blog.

Two races remain close and worth watching. In Maine, “Question 1″ is asking voters whether they support a new law on same-sex marriage. As it stands the “no” position (in favour of same-sex marriage) has a very slight lead.

No – 112,421
Yes – 112,245

38% reporting

Meanwhile, in New York’s 23rd congressional district, Democrat Bill Owens is leading ahead of Conservative Doug Hoffman:

Bill Owens (D) – 47,826 – 49.1%
Doug Hoffman (C) – 44,349 – 45.5%
Dede Scozzafava (R) – 5,294 – 5.4%

67% reporting

You can follow both votes, and a bunch of other votes around the US, at the New York Times website.

According to reports in the Australian, Sydney Morning Herald and Macarthur Chronicle, the musical chairs have been triggered by desperate attempts to save Laurie Ferguson after his seat of Reid was effectively abolished in the recent redistribution.

Reports suggest that Chris Hayes, Member for Werriwa, could be shifted from his safe seat to nearby ultramarginal Macarthur, with Werriwa going to a member of the Left. The Australian reports a deal to impose the Left’s Damien Ogden, 31, who appears to be a former Sutherland Council candidate (nowhere near Werriwa’s territory in Liverpool and Campbelltown) in exchange for which the Right would choose the candidate for Hughes, which covers parts of Liverpool, Bankstown and Sutherland and is held by a slender margin by Liberal MP Danna Vale.

However, the Chronicle reports that the “soft Left” is pushing Wendy Waller, Mayor of Liverpool, in Werriwa, and a number of reports suggest Ferguson, who has no links with that part of Sydney and whose entire career has been based in Granville, could be shifted to Werriwa. The Campbelltown branch of the ALP has clearly stated its support for Chris Hayes continuing in the seat.

Hayes has reportedly refused to move, understandable considering how he would be moving from a safe seat that he currently holds to an ultramarginal one. While he does appear to have the support of local members, that appears unlikely to be of any relevance to the ALP.

Meanwhile, the deal is tied up with agreements around the parcelling out of Greenway, Macquarie, Fowler and Throsby between the factions. None of them seem to involve any actual members ever having a say or seeing candidates tested in rank-and-file preselections.

In Macarthur, apart from Hayes, candidates named include 2007 candidate Nick Bleasdale, local paediatrician Mike Freelander, Deputy Mayor of Camden Greg Warren and paralympian Paul Nunnari. While Bleasdale claims strong local support, he was effectively preselected in 2007 without any opposition in a climate where the party did not think Macarthur was winnable, and can expect to face fiercer competition this time around. What may ultimately doom Bleasdale’s chances are his seeming lack of factional support or political capital. While his candidature saw a major swing to the ALP in 2007, no-one would claim that was due to the individual candidate, rather than a mixture of national factors and a backlash against Pat Farmer.

It appears that the party machine is enthusiastic about Mike Freelander as a contender, although he would likely be pushed aside too if it was needed to get Chris Hayes out of Werriwa (a terrible deal for Hayes, of course). With ALP preselections being decided by a panel of the Prime Minister and five factional headkickers in Canberra, what ALP members in Western Sydney actually want will not come into consideration, but they will surely take it lying down, like they always do.

A special election has been called in New York’s 23rd district to replace Rep. John McHugh (R), appointed as Obama’s Secretary of the Army. The Democrats and Republicans each declined to hold primaries, instead having local party leaders choose their candidates. Republicans chose state Assemblywoman Dierdre “Dede” Scozzafava, while the Democrats chose attorney Bill Owens. The minor Conservative Party endorsed accountant Doug Hoffman.

NY-23 is a Republican district in upstate New York, which has comfortably reelected Republican candidates for many years. Scozzafava led in early polls, but her liberal positions saw national Republicans and local conservatives shift to Hoffman. Scozzafava is pro-choice and supports gay marriage, and has links to organised labor.

A number of prominent Republican figures endorsed Hoffman, including Sarah Palin, Fred Thompson, Mike Huckabee and most of the figures in the ‘tea party’ movement. Hoffman and Owens shot ahead of Scozzafava in terms of fundraising and Scozzafava fell into third place in the polls just over a week ago.

On Saturday Scozzafava withdrew from the race, endorsing Democrat Owens on Sunday. Speculation has turned to the possibility of Scozzafava switching to the Democrats. Since that time polls have indicated that Hoffman is leading in the race, although low turnout makes polling for US special elections incredibly hard to predict, with high numbers of undecided voters and a high margin of error.

In other races tomorrow:

• New Jersey governor’s race – Incumbent governor Jon Corzine faces an uphill battle against Republican Chris Christie. Recent polls have put Christie a nose in front while a solid part of the electorate appears to be leaning towards independent Chris Daggett.
• Virginia governor’s race – Virginia’s governors are term limited to a single term, and the Democrats have won the last two elections, with Mark Warner winning in 2001 and Tim Kaine in 2005. Former Attorney-General Bob McDonnell (R) is leading over State Senator Creigh Deeds (D).
• New York City mayor’s race – Incumbent mayor Mike Bloomberg (Independent, formerly Republican) is solidly leading by about 10% ahead of City Comptroller Bill Thompson (D), and should win a third term comfortably.
• CA-10 special election – Another special election is being held in the solidly Democratic 10th district of California, where sitting Congresswoman Ellen Tauscher resigned to take a job in the Obama administration. The Democratic candidate should win.
• Gay marriage referendums – Two initiatives are being held regarding gay marriage or similar initiatives. In Maine a referendum to reject a new law legalising gay marriage looks likely to be close, with the ‘No’ campaign (pro-gay marriage) slightly in front. In Washington state a referendum to approve domestic partnerships that would be effectively marriage in all but name looks set to pass comfortably.

• Bowman
• McEwen
• Paterson

I have also included a little box in the top right hand corner of the website where links are provided to the most recently written seat guides. Keep an eye on the box for new seat guides. Next up is Macarthur.

Matheson defeated Farmer by a margin of 22-9, which was a surprise to none. Farmer has become increasingly unpopular since the 2007 election, when he suffered a 10% swing against him, barely held on, and then proceeded to attack Macarthur voters and move his family to Mosman.

You’d have to think Matheson will struggle to hold on to the seat. While Farmer’s popularity has taken a hit through his antics and his closeness to the Howard government, Macarthur was one of the only seats in 2007 where the ALP polled higher in the Senate than in the House of Representatives he would still have his own personal vote. Considering that his party has turned on him and turfed him out, you would have to think Matheson will miss that substantial personal vote that can be exploited by the ALP.

Now that redistributions have concluded in New South Wales and Queensland, I will start working from the top of the pendulum, starting with supermarginal Bowman, in order to ensure that marginal seats are finished in case an early election is called. It’s quite time-consuming to write these guides so I’m prioritising the more interesting seats. So keep an eye out on the pendulum page for new guides to be posted.