The Trader's Path

24 Dec 2015 AMC - Santa Claus Rally... Can the market end the year with a GAIN??

2015-12-27T11:29:00.001-08:00

24 Dec 2015 AMC - Santa Claus Rally... Can the market end the year with a GAIN??

Jason's Commentaries

After a selloff after the rate hike, the equities market got lifted by Santa's reindeer this week as Mon-Wed posted gains that nearly wiped out the losses after the rate hike. As everyone already expected the rate hike, there's not much shock to the equity market (kudos to Janet Yellen's hint that created the soft landing).

However, i doubt very much that the market will be having much volumes to drive the market up towards the end of the year. With much lesser upside, approx 70 points on the S&P500 to it's all time high, I doubt the punters will be pricing in towards the end of the year. In fact, i'm suspecting that the market is likely to end the year flat after such a volatile year. On the technical perspective, the main indices managed to break above the 200 day moving average, which is pointing at a bullish end to the year. I reckon that the upside is very near.

Towards the end of the trading day on Christmas Eve, the market took a quick profit take that ended the Christmas Eve in a flat note. It seemed that the traders are not willing to hold more risk through the long weekend. With just another 3 more trading days to the end of 2015, I think that the market is likely to end slight flat towards the downside despite of the technical perspective. The oil counters took some losses on the Christmas Eve despite gains in the Crude Oil for the past 2 trading sessions.

Now the main question is... What is going to happen to the equity market next year.. do stay tune to my year end report that will summarizes what happened in 2015.

Market Summary

European Markets Closing PricesEuropean markets are now closed; stock markets across Europe performed as follows:

UK's FTSE: + 0.2%
Germany's DAX: CLOSED
France's CAC: -0.2%
Spain's IBEX: + 0.4%
Portugal's PSI: + 0.1%
Italy's MIB Index: CLOSED
Irish Ovrl Index: -0.4%
Greece ASE General Index: CLOSED

Before Market Opens

S&P futures vs fair value: -2.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.20.

The S&P 500 futures trade three points below fair value.

Markets in the Asia-Pacific region ended the day on a mixed note following a quiet session. In Japan, investors returned from a midweek holiday, sending the Nikkei lower by 0.5% amid daylong yen strength that pressured the dollar/yen pair to 120.35 from the 121.00 area. It is worth noting that the Bank of Japan released its latest policy minutes, which showed that policymakers believe slow wage and capital expenditure growth is due to a slowdown in emerging markets. Elsewhere, the People's Bank of China released its Q4 Survey, which showed that 52.0% of households view property prices as too high (49.7% in Q3) while 51.1% of households see consumer prices as too high.

In economic data:
- Australia's CB Leading Index -0.1% month-over-month (previous -0.1%)
- South Korea's December Consumer Confidence fell to 103 from 106
- Singapore's November Industrial Production -3.6% month-over-month (expected 0.8%; previous 2.9%); -5.5% year-over-year (consensus -2.7%; last -4.7%)

---Equity Markets---

Japan's Nikkei lost 0.5% amid losses in all but two sectors. Energy (+1.4%) and industrials (+0.3%) outperformed while health care (-2.3%), utilities (-1.0%), and technology (-0.8%) struggled. Kyowa Hakko Kirin fell 11.0% after Nomura downgraded the stock. Elsewhere, Konami, Pioneer, Obayashi, and Mitsubishi Motors lost between 2.0% and 4.7%. On the upside, Komatsu, Kobe Steel, Mitsumi Electric, and Hitachi Construction gained between 2.3% and 3.2%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng spiked at the start of the session, spending the day in a slow retreat from its opening high. The index narrowed its gain to 0.4% by the close, receiving support from energy names like CNOOC, China Petroleum & Chemical, and Petrochina. The three names advanced between 2.5% and 3.1% while Li & Fung gained 1.2%. On the flip side, New World Development and China Resources Land lost 2.2% and 1.4%, respectively.
China's Shanghai Composite lost 0.7% with brokerage names on the defensive once again. CITIC Securities, Industrial Securities, and Pacific Securities registered losses between 2.5% and 5.8%. Bank of Beijing outperformed, climbing 4.8%.

Major European indices have meandered inside narrow ranges with trading volume running well below average. The lack of participation is understandable considering most regional markets (Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Italy, Poland, Greece, Norway, Switzerland, etc.) are closed for the rest of the week. The political picture in Spain remains uncertain after PSOE rejected Mariano Rajoy's coalition proposal yesterday. The euro rallied overnight, hitting 1.0939 against the dollar before pulling back to 1.0939 where the pair currently trades.

Economic data was limited:
- UK's BBA Mortgage Approvals 45,000 (expected 46,200; previous 45,500)

---Equity Markets---

France's CAC is lower by 0.1% amid losses in most components. Technip, Sanofi, and Alsto underperform with losses between 1.0% and 1.9% while financials are mixed. BNP Paribas trades down 0.9%, Societe Generale is flat, while Credit Agricole and Unibail Rodamco are both up near 0.3%.
UK's FTSE hovers just above its flat line up 0.3% after spending the first half in a 25-point range. BP and Anglo American outperform with gains close to 1.5% apiece while Tesco, BT Group, and Glencore show losses between 1.0% and 1.6%.
Germany's DAX is closed for Christmas Eve

Market Internals

Market Internals -Technical-

DOW down to 17552 ( -0.29%). Nasdaq is up to 5048 ( 0.05%). S&P500 down to 2060.96 ( -0.16%). Action came on lower than average volume (NYSE 341 mln vs avg. of 948 mln; Nasdaq 711 mln vs avg. of 1880 mln) , w/ advancers outpacing decliners (NYSE 1642/1412, NASDAQ 1553/1218) and new highs outpacing new lows (NYSE 41/5, NASDAQ 52/39) .

Relative Strength:

Junior Gold Mine-GDXJ +2.25%, Gold Miners-GDX +1.68%, Global X Silver Miners -SIL +1.63%, Platinum-PPLT +1.6208%, Shipping-SEA +1.413%, Israel-EIS +1.34%, Colombia-GXG +0.93%, New Zealand-ENZL +0.74%, Vietnam -VNM +0.6115%, Provident Financial Services-PFS +0.6%

Relative Weakness:

Egypt -EGPT -2.635%, Russia-RSX -1.286%, Japan-EWJ -1.14%, U.S. Diesel-Heating-UHN -0.91%, South Korea -EWY -0.78%, Steel -SLX -0.74%, Coffee-JO -0.7356%, FTSE Pacific -VPL -0.6%, U.S. Energy -IYE -0.6%, Social Media -SOCL -0.5986%

Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

Commentaries

Closing Market Summary: Stocks End Upbeat Holiday Week on Flat Note

The stock market completed an abbreviated trading week on a flat note as the sleepy Thursday session produced a slightly lower finish for the S&P 500 (-0.2%) while the Nasdaq Composite (+0.1%) settled just above its flat line. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 2.8% and the Nasdaq advanced 2.6%.

The Thursday half-session had the makings of a range-bound affair from the start, considering index futures spent the night inside narrow ranges. The overnight action saw mixed trade in Asia while yen strength pressured the dollar/yen pair to 120.30, where the pair traded through the New York session. Similarly, the few European markets that were open ended the day on a mixed note and there was no news on the Spanish political front.

Once the opening bell rang, the energy sector (-0.9%) slumped to the bottom of the leaderboard and remained there into the close. The sector halved its loss intraday, but returned to its low by the end of the day while crude oil climbed 1.6% to $38.08/bbl. Despite today's decline, the energy sector gained 4.8% for the week and crude oil advanced nearly 10.0%.

Outside of energy, the remaining sectors spent the bulk of the session near their flat lines, climbing into the green during the final hour; however, a late wave of selling sent the entire market to its opening low. The health care sector (+0.1%) settled in the lead thanks to strength in biotechnology. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 339.79, +1.12) climbed 0.3%, which kept the Nasdaq ahead of the S&P 500 throughout the day.

To be fair, the Nasdaq also drew strength from chipmakers, evidenced by a 0.4% gain in the PHLX Semiconductor Index. Meanwhile, the broader technology sector (-0.1%) was held back by large cap names like Apple (AAPL 108.03, -0.58), Alphabet (GOOGL 765.84, -2.67), and Microsoft (MSFT 55.67, -0.15).

Above all, today's session saw very limited participation with fewer than 400 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Treasuries are on track to register slim gains with the bond market set to close in an hour. The 10-yr yield is lower by a basis point at 2.25%.

The weekly initial claims report was slightly better than expected, with claims for the week ending December 19 dropping by 5,000 to 267,000 (Briefing.com consensus 271,000). However, it was no different from what has been seen in these weekly reports for some time. Initial claims have been bounded between 250,000 and 300,000 since July 2014. The four-week moving average for initial claims increased by 1,750 to 272,500.

Continuing claims for the week ending December 12 decreased by 47,000 to 2.195 million (Briefing.com consensus 2.238 mln). That left the four week moving average at 2.211 million, up 10,000 from the prior week.

Investors will not receive any economic data on Monday.

Nasdaq Composite +6.6% YTD
S&P 500 +0.1% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -1.5% YTD
Russell 2000 -4.3% YTD

Week in Review: Stocks Trot Higher on Light Volume

The stock market began the abbreviated trading week on a higher note thanks to a final-hour rally that lifted the market back to its opening high. The S&P 500 added 0.8% while the Nasdaq Composite (+0.9%) outperformed slightly. Overnight, Asian markets had a mixed showing with China's Shanghai Composite (+1.8%) outpacing other regional indices thanks to stimulus hopes. Meanwhile, European indices flashed solid intraday gains, but they slid into the close with Spain's IBEX diving 3.6% due to political uncertainty stemming from general elections that took place over the weekend. Mariano Rajoy's Partido Popular came out on top, receiving 123 votes, but forming a lasting coalition government will be a challenge considering the runner-up Socialist party has ruled out forming a joint government with PP. Spain's 10-yr note sold off in response, sending its yield higher by nine basis points to 1.79%. Once the attention shifted to the U.S., equity indices spiked out of the gate, hitting their session highs during the opening hour of the trading day. All ten sectors took part in the rally, but the market ran into some resistance that coincided with renewed selling in crude oil, which ended the day lower by 1.3% at $35.79/bbl.

The stock market registered its second consecutive advance on Tuesday with the S&P 500 climbing 0.9%. The benchmark index returned above its 100-day moving average (2,026) while the Nasdaq Composite (+0.7%) underperformed throughout the day. Overall, the Tuesday affair was very quiet, which was evidenced by light trading volume as fewer than 850 million shares changed hands at the NYSE floor. Equity indices ranged near their flat lines through the first two hours of the session, climbing to new highs during the afternoon. All ten sectors ended the day with gains, paced by the energy sector (+1.2%), which settled among the leaders. To little surprise, the rally in the energy sector was underpinned by crude oil as the commodity advanced 1.0% to $36.14/bbl. Similarly, another commodity-linked sector—materials (+1.2%)—spent the day near the top of the leaderboard while most other cyclical groups posted slimmer gains.

The major averages enjoyed a broad-based rally on Wednesday and the steady climb was undoubtedly facilitated by light trading volume ahead of Thursday's abbreviated Christmas Eve session. The S&P 500 spiked 1.2%, ending right above its 50-day (2,063) moving average, and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.9%) followed not far behind. Equity indices registered roughly half of their gains right at the open, rallying behind the energy sector (+4.4%), which held a solid lead throughout the day thanks to a rally in crude oil. The energy component surged 3.8% to $37.50/bbl, catching a second wind from bullish inventory data; however, it wasn't just energy, as every other sector ended the day comfortably in the green.

Commodities

Treasuries

Treasury Market Summary

Yield Curve Flattens

The Treasury complex moved generally higher today although the 2-year fell as part of a curve-flattening move. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.41% to 97.93, the S&P 500 was barely changed at 2,061.9, and WTI crude made it two days up in a row (+1.65% to $38.12/bbl.). Gold rallied 0.70% to $1,075.80/troy oz.
Yield Check:
- 2-yr: +1 bp to 0.99%
- 5-yr: -1 bp to 1.71%
- 10-yr: -1 bp to 2.24%
- 30-yr: -2 bps to 2.96%

News:
- The weekly initial claims report was slightly better than expected, with claims for the week ending December 19 dropping by 5K to 267K (Briefing.com consensus 271K). Initial claims have been bounded between 250K and 300K since July 2014. The four-week moving average for initial claims increased by 1,750 to 272,500
  - The Department of Labor said there were no special factors impacting the latest claims report
  - Continuing claims for the week ending December 12 decreased by 47,000 to 2.195 mln (Briefing.com consensus 2.238 mln). That left the four week moving average at 2.211 mln, up 10K from the prior week
- Natural gas inventories fell by 32 bln cubic feet in the week ending 12/19 versus expectations for a fall of 25 bln bcf

Week Ahead:
- Monday: 2-year Treasury auction, amount TBA (13:00 ET)
- Tuesday: October Case-Shiller 20-City Index (09:00 ET); December Consumer Confidence (10:00 ET); 5-year Treasury auction, amount TBA(13:00 ET)
- Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Purchase Index for the week ending 12/26 (07:00 ET); November Pending Home Sales (10:00 ET); Crude Inventories for the week ending 12/26 (10:30 ET); 7-year Treasury auction, amount TBA (13:00 ET)
- Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 12/26 and Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending 12/19 (08:30 ET); December Chicago PMI (09:45 ET); Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending 12/26 (10:30 ET)

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/Platinum/InDepth/InPlayFull.htm#ixzz3vY9lWHzj

On other news....

Currencies

Dollar Loses Ground

Greenback Resumes Sell-Off

The U.S. Dollar Index is coming under pressure today (-0.36% to 97.99). The dollar index halted a three-day sell-off on Wednesday but moved right back to a one-week low this morning
USD/JPY is brushing against a six-week low (-0.45% to 120.37)
EUR/USD: is up +0.30% to $1.0946
GBP/USD: +0.34% to $1.4931
USD/CHF: -0.26% to 0.9876
USD/JPY: -0.50% to 120.31
AUD/USD: +0.40% to $0.7266
NZD/USD: +0.54% to $0.6832
- The New Zealand Dollar is nearing a six-month high (NZD: +0.46% to $0.6827)

Next Week In View

Economic Commentaries

Economic Summary: Jobless Claims fall faster than expected

Economic Data Summary:

Weekly Initial Claims 267K vs Briefing.com consensus of 271K; Last Week was revised to 272K from 271K
Weekly Continuing Claims 2.195 M vs Briefing.com consensus of 2.228 M ; Last Week was revised to 2.242 M from 2.239 M
- The weekly initial claims report was slightly better than expected, with claims for the week ending December 19 dropping by 5,000 to 267,000 (Briefing.com consensus 271,000). Initial claims have been bounded between 250,000 and 300,000 since July 2014. The four-week moving average for initial claims increased by 1,750 to 272,500. The Department of Labor said there were no special factors impacting the latest claims report.

Other International Events of Interest

The Bank of Japan released its latest policy minutes, which showed that policymakers believe slow wage and capital expenditure growth is due to a slowdown in emerging markets.

Market Call: FLAT to upside

Date: 28 Dec 2015
Stats: 1/1(100%)

Equities retraced after expected rate hike; Energy continues to lag

2015-12-21T00:02:00.001-08:00

21 Feb 2014 AMC - Equities retraced after expected rate hike; Energy continues to lag

Jason's Commentaries

Even though the rate hike was expected, the equities market is taking some knee jerk reaction having 2 straight major losses on Thursday and Friday, while Treasuries edged up despite the rate hike. The US Central Bank raised 25 basis points on Wednesday as widely expected which caused a spike up in the equities. However, the bullish momentum did not last long. 2 straight losses wiped out all gains for the week.

The previous week, the market has been focusing on the oil market which dragged down the entire energy sector. I think that the equity market would unlikely fare well for the next 2 years, with very limited upside in the market, while the energy market continues to be depressed, which will cause negative impact in the global economy. With Iran pumping more oil into the market in 2016, oil prices are expected to come down more, possibly to a low of $20.

Another indicator in the market will be the retrencement signs in the financial instituions. Major cuts has been annouced throughout the major banks. However, with the continued easing in Europe and Japan, there might be more upside in the European market. I'm expecting the equity market to consolidate to the downside.

On the technical perspective, I believe that the market might stage a increase in the market before the Chrismas.

Market Summary

European Markets Closing Prices


	European markets are now closed; stock markets across Europe performed as follows: UK's FTSE: -0.8% Germany's DAX: -1.2% France's CAC: -1.1% Spain's IBEX: -1.6% Portugal's PSI: + 0.6% Italy's MIB Index: -1.3% Irish Ovrl Index: -0.3% Greece ASE General Index: + 0.1%

Before Market Opens

S&P futures vs fair value: -12.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -17.70.
The S&P 500 futures trade twelve points below fair value.

Markets in the Asia-Pacific region took a cue from yesterday's dive on Wall Street, ending the week on a mostly lower note. Interestingly, Japan's Nikkei lost 1.9% even though the Bank of Japan expanded its quantitative and qualitative easing program by stepping up its purchases of ETFs and lengthening the average maturity of government securities in the bank's possession. Despite the change, the yen rallied, sending the dollar/yen pair into the 121.35 area after trading near 123.00 overnight. The market response suggests investors believe the BoJ's actions may be insufficient. Elsewhere, China's Shanghai Composite outperformed the region, ending flat after November House Prices increased 0.9% year-over-year (previous 0.1%).

In economic data:
- China's November House Prices +0.9% year-over-year (previous 0.1%)
- The Bank of Japan leaves key interest rate unchanged at 0.10%, as expected
- New Zealand's December ANZ Business Confidence 23.0 (prior 14.6)
- South Korea's November PPI -0.3% month-over-month (previous -0.7%); -4.6% year-over-year (last -4.6%)

---Equity Markets---

Japan's Nikkei flirted with its November high, but reversed to end the day lower by 1.9% after the Bank of Japan failed to satisfy a stimulus-hungry market. Every sector ended in the red with health care (-0.4%) registering the slimmest decline. Meanwhile, the remaining groups lost more than 1.2% apiece. To little surprise, energy brought up the rear with a 3.4% plunge. Looking at individual issues, SUMCO, Okuma, Fujitsu, Toho Zinc, Sumitomo Metal Mining, and Kobe Steel ended among the laggards with losses between 3.7% and 4.7%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.5% with energy names showing relative weakness. CNOOC, Petrochina, and China Petroleum & Chemical lost between 1.7% and 1.9% while select financials also struggled. Hang Seng Bank, China Life Insurance, and Bank of East Asia surrendered between 1.1% and 2.0%.
China's Shanghai Composite ended flat. Airlines had a strong showing with China Southern Airlines, Hainan Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines spiking between 2.6% and 7.9%. Financials rebounded from recent weakness with Agricultural Bank of China, Everbright Bank, and Bank of China adding between 0.3% and 0.7%.

European markets trade lower across the board with Spain's IBEX (-1.6%) trailing the region ahead of this weekend's general elections. Despite today's weakness, regional indices remain on track to end the week in the green after suffering two consecutive weekly losses. The Friday session has been relatively quiet on the news front while the euro has held its ground against the dollar, trading at 1.0837. European Central Bank member Ewald Nowotny spoke about the ECB QE program, saying that ECB policy is helping drove down lending rates and that the Austrian banking sector is likely to lose a third of its workforce in the next few years.

Economic data was limited:
- Eurozone October Current Account EUR20.40 billion (expected EUR29.90 billion; previous EUR30.10 billion)
- Italy's November Wage Inflation +0.2% month-over-month (expected 0.1%; previous 0.1%); +1.3% year-over-year (consensus 1.2%; last 1.2%)
- France's November PPI +0.1% month-over-month (prior 0.2%)

---Equity Markets---

Spain's IBEX has tumbled 1.6% with Mediaset, Telefonica, Inditex, and ACS down between 2.5% and 3.4%. On the upside, FCC has surged 23.8% after receiving a capital injection.
Germany's DAX is lower by 1.1% with all but two components in the red. Exporters Daimler and BMW have paced the slide with losses close to 2.5% apiece while financials Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank are both down near 1.1%. On the upside, Deutsche Boerse has climbed 0.8% while HeidelbergCement trades higher by 0.3%.
In France, the CAC trades down 1.2% amid broad weakness. Airbus Group has given up 3.1% while consumer names Louis Vuitton, L'Oreal, Accor, Kering, and Carrefour show losses between 1.6% and 2.9%. Steelmaker ArcelorMittal has bucked the trend, trading higher by 1.2%.
UK's FTSE has slid 0.4% with ARM Holdings diving 2.2%. Homebuilder Barratt Developments is down 1.8% while industrials Ashtead Group and Meggitt have given up 1.5% apiece. A handful of miners have been able to show some strength with Anglo American, BHP Billiton, and Fresnillo up between 0.2% and 1.3%.

Market Internals

Market Internals -Technical-

DOW down to 17128.45 ( -2.1%). Nasdaq down to 4923.08 ( -1.59%). S&P500 down to 2005.52 ( -1.78%). Action came on higher than average volume (NYSE 2508 mln vs avg. of 1358 mln; Nasdaq 2995 mln vs avg. of 1759 mln) , w/ decliners outpacing advancers (NYSE 1545/1588, NASDAQ 1536/1327) and new lows outpacing new highs (NYSE 20/227, NASDAQ 39/153) .

Relative Strength:

S&P 500 VIX ST Furtures-VXX +8.04%, Copper Sub-JJC +3.45%, Copper Miners -COPX +2.81%, Sugar-SGG +2.79%, Junior Gold Mine-GDXJ +2.71%, Poland-EPOL +1.28%, Japanese Yen-FXY +1.2%, Australia-EWA +1.15%, China Large Cap-FXI +0.963%, Austrialian Dollar-FXA +0.79%

Relative Weakness:

Rare Earth Stratregic Metals-REMX -4.25%, Financials Select-XLF -3.2%, Oil Services -OIH -3.1%, Latin America 40 -ILF -2.76%, Energy Select-XLE -2.7%, U.S. Financial Services-IYG -2.63%, Russia-RSX -2.47%, Provident Financial Services-PFS -2.08%, Thailand-THD -1.83%, Brazilian Real Strategy-BZF -1.78%

Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

Commentaries

Closing Market Summary: Cyclical Sectors Lead Market Lower

The stock market ended a volatile week on a defensive note. The Dow Jones Industrial Average paced the Friday slide, falling 2.1% while the S&P 500 (-1.8%) and Nasdaq Composite (-1.6%) registered slimmer losses.

Overnight, the Bank of Japan stepped up its easing efforts by announcing plans to purchase JPY300 billion worth of ETFs starting in April of 2016; however, the market scoffed at the news with Japan's Nikkei diving 1.9% while the yen climbed 1.1% against the dollar (121.27). This is noteworthy because stimulus from major central banks has been a big reason for the rally seen in global markets over the past few years. Therefore, a negative market reaction to news of more stimulus could be indicative of a sentiment change as participants begin wondering whether global central banks have reached their limits.

Investor sentiment saw little improvement as the focus shifted to the European session and the selling carried over to U.S. markets. Consequently, the first three hours of the day saw a steady slide in the key indices and they hit new lows ahead of the closing bell.

All ten sectors ended the day in negative territory with cyclical sectors showing relative weakness. The financial sector (-2.5%) spent the day behind its peers, but despite today's underperformance, the economically-sensitive sector ended the week flat. However, other growth-sensitive groups were not nearly as fortunate, posting weekly losses between 0.4% (consumer discretionary) and 3.1% (materials).

The top-weighted technology sector (-2.0%) lost 1.3% for the week after having to contend with weeklong underperformance in the shares of Apple (AAPL 105.90, -3.08). The largest stock by market cap tumbled 2.8% on Friday, ending the week lower by 6.4%.

Elsewhere, the energy sector (-1.6%) settled ahead of the broader market, but the group was knocked down from its high by an intraday reversal in crude oil. The energy component flashed a brief gain in the late morning, but followed that with a slide to a new low for the week, ending the pit session down 0.7% at $34.72/bbl.

The broad retreat that unfolded over the course of Thursday and Friday masked the fact that the S&P 500 ended the week little changed, shedding 0.3%. Five of six cyclical sectors finished the week in negative territory, but the four countercyclical groups posted weekly gains between 0.5% (consumer staples) and 2.8% (utilities), suggesting some sector rotation took place as investors tested the waters in defensively-oriented areas of the market.

Today's slide in equities was accompanied by strength in the bond market as the 10-yr note rallied overnight and held its ground during the day. The benchmark note ended near its high, pressuring its yield three basis points to 2.19%.

Investor participation was strong today, but that was largely due to quadruple witching. As a result, more than two billion shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.

Market participants will not receive any economic data on Monday.

Nasdaq Composite +4.0% YTD
S&P 500 -2.6% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -3.9% YTD
Russell 2000 -6.8% YTD

Week in Review: Stocks Gyrate as Fed Hikes Rates

Equities began the trading week on a higher note, but not before showing some late morning volatility. The S&P 500 climbed 0.5% after briefly dipping below the 2,000 mark while the Nasdaq Composite (+0.4%) underperformed slightly. Equity indices slumped out of the gate with cyclical sectors fueling the early weakness. That selling was congruent with a retreat in the oil market, but a reversal in crude futures helped halt the slide in equities. The stock market spent the afternoon near its flat line, rallying to a fresh high during the final 15 minutes of the session. Crude oil was in focus throughout the day as the energy component probed the $34.60/bbl area in overnight action before rallying to end the day higher by 2.0% at $36.34/bbl. The late morning reversal underpinned the energy sector (+0.8%), which rebounded from last week's 6.6% dive. The energy sector climbed into the green with relative ease, but the same could not be said for most of the remaining cyclical groups. The technology sector (+0.6%) was an exception as the top-weighted group climbed ahead of the broader market during the afternoon after showing relative weakness at the start. That early weakness could be traced back to the shares of Apple (AAPL 112.48, -0.70) as the tech giant struggled after Morgan Stanley lowered its iPhone sales forecast. Apple settled lower by 0.6% after being down more than 2.0% in the early going.

The stock market enjoyed a broad-based rally on Tuesday, which lifted the S&P 500 (+1.1%) back above its 100-day moving average (2,030). The benchmark index extended its weekly gain to 1.5% ahead of Wednesday's FOMC announcement, which is widely expected to call for the first fed funds rate hike since 2006. Overnight, the early portion of the Asian session was highlighted by some caution among investors, but the overall sentiment began improving once the attention shifted to Europe. Accordingly, markets in France (+3.2%), Germany (+3.1%), and the UK (+2.5%) soared amid broad support. Contributing to the upbeat sentiment was a rally in crude oil as the energy component climbed despite greenback strength that sent the Dollar Index (98.22, +0.62) higher by 0.6%. As for oil, WTI crude surged 2.7% to $37.32/bbl, taking the energy sector (+2.9%) along for the ride. The growth-sensitive energy sector settled atop the leaderboard, but despite the surge, the sector is still down 7.8% for the month. Similarly, the financial sector (+2.4%) was also at the forefront of the Tuesday advance after showing relative weakness as of late. The economically-sensitive group narrowed its December loss to 2.0% versus a 1.8% month-to-date decline for the S&P 500.

Equity indices ended the midweek session on a higher note with the S&P 500 climbing 1.5%. The benchmark index shrugged off the first fed funds rate hike in nine years, reclaiming its 50- (2,060) and 200-day moving averages (2,062) in the process. The key indices spiked at the start of the trading day, but the first half of the session featured a slow drip from opening highs as investors employed some caution ahead of the FOMC rate announcement; however, a rally to new highs unfolded during the late afternoon. The Federal Reserve lived up to expectations, calling for a 25-basis point hike to the federal funds target range, which had been stuck in the 0.00-0.25% range for exactly seven years. Interestingly, the rate hike did not stop the committee from slightly lowering its core PCE inflation outlook for 2016 to 1.5-1.7% from 1.5-1.8% that had been expected in September. The Dollar Index (98.35, +0.13) displayed some volatility, but ended in the green. The index saw some pressure as Fed Chair Janet Yellen addressed the media, stressing the Fed's intention to stick to a gradual tightening path. Ms. Yellen acknowledged that the rate hike is taking place while inflation is well below the Fed's 2.0% target, but the Fed Chair believes that inflation will return to the 2.0% target once transitory factors fade away.

The market stumbled on Thursday, erasing its entire post-Fed advance. The S&P 500 lost 1.5%, falling below its 50- and 200-day moving averages (2,062), while the Nasdaq Composite (-1.4%) settled just a step ahead. Equity indices held slim gains at the open after the overnight session saw a broad rally in Japan (+1.6%), France (+1.1%), and Germany (+2.6%); however, that bullish sentiment faded in a flash, pulling stocks lower through the first two hours of the session. The key indices ranged near their morning lows into the late afternoon, hitting new lows into the close. The Thursday retreat was not a huge surprise considering a higher fed funds rate will translate into increased borrowing costs. Furthermore, the resulting dollar strength is expected to be a negative for U.S.-based companies that conduct a large portion of their activities overseas. Fittingly, the greenback was on the rise, climbing 0.7% against the euro (1.0808) while the yen (122.50) resisted some of the pressure, but still slid 0.4% against the dollar. As a result, the Dollar Index (99.23, +0.65) gained 0.7%, returning into the neighborhood of this year's high (100.51).

Commodities

Closing Commodities: Precious Metals See Large Gains On Weaker Dollar

The dollar traded weak all session, being pressed to moderate losses early this morning on Yen strength- driven by market reaction to underwhelming QE announcements from the Bank of Japan. The index saw modest positive momentum in late afternoon, holding substantive losses into the commodity closes.
The index is now -0.5% to 98.73
Crude traded in a volatile range for most of the day, with early headlines reporting/focusing on a lack of supply coordination between Russian firms and OPEC.
The mid-day Baker Hughes US rig count came in unchanged, with total rigs still at 709. This did little to support the commodities' descent, and the February contract closed -0.7% to $36.27/barrel.
Metals all saw a positive close on the weaker dollar- with both gold and silver seeing sharp mid-morning rallies. Both precious metals closed strong positive for the day: gold at +1.5% to 1064.90 and silver +2.8% to $14.09. Copper ended up 3.4% to $2.11/lb
Natural gas closed +0.9% to $1.77/MMBtu

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/Platinum/InDepth/InPlayFull.htm#ixzz3uwGvzt83
Energy Closing Prices

February Crude Oil futures fell $0.24 (-0.66%) to $36.27/barrel
January Natural Gas closed $0.015 higher (0.85%) at $1.77/MMBtu
January RBOB Gasoline closed $0.005 higher at $1.27/gallon
January Heating oil futures closed $0.005 higher at $1.11/gallon

Agricultural Closing Prices

March corn closed flat at $3.74/bushel
March wheat closed $0.03 higher at $4.87/bushel
January soybeans closed $0.16 higher at $8.93/bushel

Metals closing prices

February gold ended today's session $15.40 higher (+1.5%) at $1064.90/oz
March silver closed today's session $0.39 higher (+2.8%) at $14.09/oz
March copper closed $0.07 higher (+3.4%) at $2.11/lb

Treasuries

On other news....

Currencies

Currency Market Summary

Dollar Pulls Back as Investors Flee Risky Assets

The U.S. Dollar Index fell -0.49% to 98.78 today as Treasury yields moved lower and investors worried about the ability for the economy and financial markets to deal with higher interest rates. The greenback feel against all of the majors
EUR/USD: +0.17% to $1.0853
- The eurozone's current account surplus narrowed more than expected to EUR 20.4 bln in October from EUR 30.1 bln in September
  - The French Business Survey Index unexpectedly rose to 103 in December from 102 in November
  - Italian wages grew by 1.3% in the year to November, beating expectations for a continuation of October's 1.2% y/y growth
GBP/USD: +0.01% to $1.4907
USD/CHF: -0.24% to 0.9927
USD/JPY: -1.03% to 121.31
- The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.1% but said that it would extend the average maturity of its government bond portfolio. This is similar to the Fed's "Operation Twist" that began in September 2011
USD/CAD: -0.16% to 1.3925
- Canada's consumer price index fell 0.1% m/m in November, missing expectations. The CPI grew 0.1% in October
  - The core CPI fell 0.3% m/m in November, also missing economists' estimates. The core CPI grew 0.3% m/m in October
- Canadian wholesale sales fell a worse-than-expected 0.6% m/m in October after declining 0.3% in September. Economists had expected a reading much closer to November's 56.1
AUD/USD: +0.97% to $0.7188
NZD/USD: +0.80% to $0.6745
- The ANZ Business Confidence index jumped to 23.0 in December from 14.6 in November

Next Week In View

Economic Commentaries

Economic Summary: No US data today; Lacker to speak at 12:30 PM ET

Upcoming Fed/Treasury Events

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker (voting FOMC member in 2015, not in 2016) will speak today at 12:30 PM ET

Other International Events of Interest

The Bank of Japan announced a new JPY300 billion ETF purchase program, which was deemed insufficient by the market as the yen strengthened, sending the dollar/yen pair into the 121.30 area after testing 123.00 overnight

Market Call: UP

Date: 18 Dec 2015

11 Dec 2014 AMC - Market sunk as Oil crashes to 2009 low

2015-12-12T21:50:00.001-08:00

11 Dec 2014 AMC - Market sunk as Oil crashes to 2009 low

Jason's Commentaries

As the OPEC is starting to be divided between major oil producers like Saudi Arabia and smaller oil producing countries like Veneuzula, despite repeated request from the smaller countries to cut supply output. Saudi Arabia, is very likely to continue to the current supply rate to squeeze out all other competitors in the market such as US Shale Gas, Russia, China to dominate the oil market. With so much holding power, Saudi Arabia might emerge as the world's biggest winner, while dragging down the entire global economy. CHEAP OIL IS NEVER GOOD.

The decision from OPEC on the 4 Dec sparked a sell off in oil prices which caused the market to sell off ahead of the potential interest rate increase this coming Wednesday as FOMC is on track to raise interest rate. Without a doubt, the energy sector is sinking, dragging down the rest of the market. All internals were pointing towards the bearish side. As we might see a bounce in Oil as it hits the 2009 low at $35, the market might have a positive bounce after such heavy sell off last week. To add on to the bounce, the dollar index weakened for the past one week ahead of the FOMC rate decision.

In the coming week, the whole world will be watching the first rate hike since 2006. Hold on to your seatbelts as it's gonna get really rocky.

Market Summary

European Markets Closing Prices
European markets are now closed; stock markets across Europe performed as follows:

UK's FTSE: -2.2%
Germany's DAX: -2.4%
France's CAC: -1.8%
Spain's IBEX: -1.4%
Portugal's PSI: -1.7%
Italy's MIB Index: -1.8%
Irish Ovrl Index: -0.8%
Greece ASE General Index: + 0.3%

Before Market Opens

S&P futures vs fair value: -15.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -23.50.

The S&P 500 futures trade 16 points below fair value.

Markets in the Asia-Pacific region ended Friday mostly lower, with only Japan managing to close in the green. The Nikkei's 1.0% gain can be widely attributed to the downward reversal seen in the yen during US hours versus the prior day. Comments from Japanese Finance Minister were glossed over by market participants after he indicated that there are no plans to delay the proposed consumption tax, scheduled to go into effect in 2017. In China, the Shanghai Composite fell 0.6% on another session lacking in macro data. A major theme coming out of the Mainland was news that the chairman of Fosun has gone missing (he is often referred to as the Warren Buffett of China). Separately, the CNY came into focus after the PBoC set the currency to its lowest level in 4 years. Elsewhere, gaming stocks took a hit after local press suggested regulators will investigate illegal transactions through UnionPay. After the Shanghai Composite closed, China released its November New Yuan Loans, which came in below expectations at CNY708.9 bln vs CNY735.0 bln expected.

In economic data:
- New Zealand's November Business PMI 54.7 (previous 53.3) and November FPI -0.2% month-over-month (expected -0.3%; previous 1.2%)
- South Korea's November Import Price Index -15.6% year-over-year (previous -14.9%) and Export Price Index -8.6% year-over-year (last -6.5%)
- India's Industrial Production +9.8% year-over-year (consensus 7.8%; previous 3.6%)

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Japan's Nikkei increased 1.0%. The Nikkei shot up shortly after the opening bell and maintained a steady bid for the duration of the session and closed near the session highs. Sectors leading the way were Health Care (+1.4%) and IT (+1.4%), while Energy (-0.1%) was the only sector to close negative. Shares of Sharp, saw a sharp move higher by 4.0% after reports the co may receive additional lending support. Not all stocks fared as well, considering Sekisui House fell 4.1% after the co reported its Q3 results.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined by 1.1%. As mentioned above, Gaming stocks were under fire with reports of crack downs on illegal UnionPay transactions. As such, Sands China fell by 1.9%, while Galaxy Entertainment was not far behind with a 1.7% decline. Some of the financial names were spooked by the news of the Fosun Chairman's disappearance. Trading chatter suggest shares of China Minsheng Banking Corp (-1.7%) fell in response to the news.
China's Shanghai Composite declined 0.6%. The index was underwater the whole session and closed right about where it started. A late day push to get the index over the unchanged level was refuted in the last hour. The jitters of the mysterious disappearance of the Fosun Chairman seemed to keep a steady lid on the market. Speculation was all over the map, with reports of foul-play to an alleged probe gave traders reason to refrain from aggressive buying. Fosun's shares were suspended following the reports. Among Fosun's holdings that saw weakness was Healthcare company Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer, which gave up 3.6% in response.

Major European indices trade lower across the board with Germany's DAX (-1.6%) at the bottom of the leaderboard. Greek officials have reportedly reached an agreement with EU representatives on a second set of reforms, but that has not alleviated any of the pressure seen in regional equity markets.

Economic data was limited:
- Germany's November CPI +0.1% month-over-month, as expected; +0.4% year-over-year, as expected
- France's October Current Account -EUR1.40 billion (previous surplus of EUR300 million)
- Italy's October Industrial Production +0.5% month-over-month (expected 0.3%; previous 0.2%); +2.9% year-over-year (consensus 2.0%; last 1.8%). Separately, Quarterly Unemployment Rate 11.7% (expected 11.9%; previous 12.3%)

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Germany's DAX is lower by 1.6% with all 30 components trading in the red. Heavyweights Deutsche Bank, Daimler, BMW, Commerzbank, and BASF are down between 2.0% and 3.5%. Meanwhile, countercyclical names like Fresenius and Beiersdorf trade ahead of their peers, but both are down near 1.0% apiece.
France's CAC trades down 1.3% amid broad weakness. Renault has tumbled 4.9% while ArcelorMittal, Valeo, Airbus, Michelin, and Carrefour trade a bit ahead with losses between 2.3% and 3.1%.
UK's FTSE outperforms with a loss of 1.3%, but that has not stopped all but two components from trading in the red. Miners and energy names have paced the slide as commodities remain weak. Anglo American, BHP Billiton, and Royal Dutch Shell are down between 2.9% and 4.9%.

Market Internals

DOW down to 17265 ( -1.76%). Nasdaq down to 4933 ( -2.21%). S&P500 down to 2012 ( -1.94%). Action came on higher than average volume (NYSE 987 mln vs avg. of 909 mln; Nasdaq 1910 mln vs avg. of 1733 mln) , w/ decliners outpacing advancers (NYSE 1545/1588, NASDAQ 1536/1327) and new lows outpacing new highs (NYSE 9/368, NASDAQ 15/215) .

Relative Strength:

S&P 500 VIX ST Furtures-VXX +15.015%, Copper Sub-JJC +2.23%, 20+ Year Treasury Bond-TLT +1.687%, Base Metals -DBB +1.1486%, Gold Miners-GDX +0.95%, Japanese Yen-FXY +0.607%, Swiss Franc-FXF +0.5222%, British Pound Ster-FXB +0.423%, Emerging Markets Eastern Eur-ESR +0%, Egypt -EGPT +0%

Relative Weakness:

U.S. Diesel-Heating-UHN -6.4451%, South Africa-EZA -5.94%, Alerian MLP-AMJ -5.93%, Emerging Middle East & Africa-GAF -5.61%, S&P Oil & Gas Expl & Prod-XOP -4.82%, Turkey-TUR -4.55%, Indonesia-IDX -4.36%, Coffee-JO -4.3527%, Coal-KOL -4.05%, Philippines-EPHE -3.77%

Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

Commentaries

Closing Market Summary: Stocks Slide Ahead of Fed Week

The stock market ended a defensive week on a woeful note with the S&P 500 (-1.9%) diving below its 100-day moving average (2,031). The benchmark index lost 3.8% since last Friday, while the Nasdaq (-2.2%) underperformed, falling 4.1% for the week.

The bulk of today's weakness unfolded during the first half of the day while afternoon action saw the key indices slip to fresh lows. The early weakness followed an overnight session, which featured news from China, indicating the People's Bank of China nudged the yuan to a four-year low against the dollar (6.4553). This stoked up concerns about China's deflation being exported to other economies while continued weakness in commodities compounded those worries.

Furthermore, reports of trouble in the junk bond arena weighed on sentiment after it came to light that Third Avenue Management is liquidating its high-yield Focused Credit Fund and barring investor withdrawals while it is doing so. This invited fears about other bond funds with similar exposure while junk bonds faced daylong pressure that sent the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate ETF (HYG 79.52, -1.62) to its lowest close since July 2009.

All ten sectors ended the day in negative territory and the market saw no dip-buying during the afternoon. To be fair, the lack of an afternoon rebound was not a shock considering the Federal Reserve is likely to introduce another wrinkle into the fold next week when the central bank is widely expected to announce the first fed funds rate hike since June 2006.

The continued weakness in commodity prices took its toll on cyclical energy (-3.4%) and materials (-2.7%) sectors. The energy space widened this week's loss to 6.5% while crude oil also struggled, falling 3.2% to $35.62/bbl, to end the week lower by 10.9%.

Meanwhile, the remaining cyclical sectors fared a bit better, but that was a small victory considering the "best" performing growth-sensitive sector still lost 1.6%. The industrial sector settled just a step ahead of the broader market thanks to strength in select railroad names after it was reported Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B 130.31, -1.40) is considering a bid for NorfolkSouthern (NSC 89.53, +1.85). On a related note, the Dow Jones Transportation Average ended in line with the S&P 500.

The 1.9% gain in the shares of NSC represented one of few bright spots in the market as declining issues at the NYSE outpaced advancers by a 7:1 margin.

Treasuries rallied throughout the day, ending on their highs with the 10-yr yield sliding ten basis points to 2.13%.

The Friday retreat invited above-average volume as nearly a billion shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data included PPI, Retail Sales, Michigan Sentiment, and Business Inventories:

The Producer Price Index report for November produced some better than expected readings, with both total PPI and core PPI, which excludes food and energy, increasing 0.3%
- The median estimate of economists polled by Briefing.com called for a 0.1% decline in total PPI and a 0.1% increase in core PPI
- On a year-over-year basis, the index for final demand is down 1.1%, which is the tenth consecutive 12-month decline. Core PPI is up 0.5%
The November Retail Sales report showed a below-consensus increase of 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%), yet sales excluding autos (+0.4%) were stronger than expected (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%) while core retail sales, which exclude autos, gasoline station, and building materials sales, were up a healthy 0.6%
- Core retail sales factor into the goods component of personal consumption expenditures in the GDP report, so this November data can be thought of as a positive input
The preliminary reading for the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for December was 91.8, which was up slightly from the final November reading of 91.3 and nearly matched the Briefing.com consensus estimate of 91.6
- The improvement stemmed from a better feeling about current conditions, evidenced by a jump in the Current Economic Conditions Index to 107.0 from 104.3
Total business inventories were unchanged in October following a downwardly revised 0.1% increase (from 0.3%) in September
- The Briefing.com consensus expected business inventories to be up 0.1%
- Manufacturer inventories (-0.1%) and merchant wholesaler inventories (-0.1%) were already known. Retailer inventories were the only unknown and they increased 0.1% in October on top of a 0.8% increase in September

Investors will not receive any economic data on Monday.

Nasdaq Composite +4.2% YTD
S&P 500 -2.3% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -3.1% YTD
Russell 2000 -6.6% YTD

Week in Review: Stocks and Commodities Slide

The major averages began the trading week on a cautious note with the Dow (-0.7%), Nasdaq (-0.8%), and S&P 500 (-0.7%) registering comparable losses. Equity indices retreated through the first two hours of the Monday session and the lack of intraday bargain hunting kept the key averages near their lows into the afternoon. The S&P 500 erased a third of its advance from Friday, but managed to settle above its 200-day moving average (2,065). Cyclical sectors were at the forefront of the retreat with energy (-3.7%) diving to the bottom of the leaderboard at the start of the trading day. The growth-sensitive group accelerated its slide during the late morning as crude oil cracked a new low for the year, dipping beneath the $38.00/bbl mark. The energy component settled lower by 5.9% at $37.63/bbl after sliding from its overnight high near $39.75/bbl.

The stock market endured a shaky session on Tuesday, but the key indices managed to recover a portion of their losses by the close. The S&P 500 settled in the middle of its trading range, surrendering 0.7%, while the Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%) outperformed throughout the day. Equities began the day under heavy pressure after the overnight session featured some disappointing economic data from China. Specifically, the country's November trade surplus narrowed to $54.10 billion from $61.64 billion (expected surplus of $63.30 billion) as exports fell 6.8% year-over-year (consensus -5.0%; previous -6.9%) and imports declined 8.7% (expected -12.6%; last -18.8%). The smaller than expected trade surplus re-invited the same global growth concerns that have been plaguing the market throughout the year. Accordingly, commodities retreated with crude oil falling more than 2.0% before pulling back. The energy component made a brief appearance in the green, but could not avoid a lower close, slipping 0.3% to $37.51/bbl after marking a session low near $36.64/bbl. The rebound in crude helped alleviate some of the pressure in the stock market, but the S&P 500 could not return above its 200-day moving average (2,064), which served as resistance.

On Wednesday, the market ended on a broadly lower note with the S&P 500 surrendering 0.8% after being up 0.8% in the early going. The benchmark index returned below its 200-day moving average (2,064) while the Nasdaq (-1.5%) underperformed throughout the day. The early portion of the midweek session appeared to have the makings of a rebound, but the opening strength was entirely due to significant gains in two commodity-related sectors. The materials space (+3.1%) ended comfortably in the lead after it was reported that Dow Chemical (DOW 56.97, +6.07) and DuPont (DD 74.49, +7.89) are in advanced merger talks. Both names surged 11.9% with DuPont's strength keeping the Dow ahead of the broader market.

Thursday ended on a higher note with the market putting an end to its three-day skid. The S&P 500 climbed 0.2%, but could not hold posture above its 50-day moving average (2,054). Meanwhile, the Dow (+0.5%) and Nasdaq (+0.4%) settled ahead of the benchmark index. The Thursday advance did not occur without some theatrics as the S&P 500 marked a morning high during the first 90 minutes of the day and followed that with a return to its flat line. The benchmark index charged to a fresh high in the early afternoon, but backtracked from that level to end in the lower third of today's range. Equity indices spent the first hour of action near their flat lines, but the energy sector (+0.6%) displayed relative strength from the start, which underpinned the advance. The sector narrowed this week's loss to 3.2%, ending in the lead even though crude oil fell 1.0% to $36.80/bbl. The energy component continued sliding in electronic trade, which forced some backtracking in the sector and the broader market.

Commodities

Energy closing prices

January Crude Oil futures fell $1.18 (-3.2%) to $35.62/barrel
January Natural Gas closed $0.03 lower (-1.5%) at $1.99/MMBtu
January RBOB Gasoline closed +0.2% higher at $1.28/gallon
January Heating oil futures closed $0.08 lower at $1.15/gallon

Agricultural closing prices

March corn closed $0.03 lower at $3.76/bushel
March wheat closed $0.05 lower at $4.91/bushel
January soybeans closed $0.07 lower at $8.72/bushel
March Sugar #11 closed $0.03 cents higher at 14.58 cents/lb

Metals closing prices

February gold ended today's session $3.80 higher (+0.4%) at $1076.00/oz
March silver closed today's session $0.22 lower (-1.6%) at $13.90/oz
March copper closed $0.05 higher (+2.7%) at $2.12/lb

Closing Commodities: WTI Closes Below $36/Barrel Despite A Weakened Dollar

The dollar trended under pressure all session, with the index extending losses following a steep fall in morning trade.
- The index's initial fall came shortly after the release of relatively in-line US PPI, Retail Sales and Michigan Consumer sentiment data sets
Going into the commodity closes, the index held losses and is now -0.4% to 97.55
Gold saw a lift in early trade on the dollar's weakness, while silver caught little/no positive momentum from the move. Both commodities extended those trends throughout the session and into the close, with gold finishing +0.4% to $1076/oz and silver closing -1.6% to $13.90/oz
Crude broke below the $36/barrel level in mid-morning trade, following the release of an IEA forecast speculating that oversupply of crude would extend through late 2016.
Mid-day Baker Hughes rig count data did little to firm up WTI's weakness (showing a drop of 28 oil/natural gas rigs), and crude ended up closing -3.2% to $35.62/barrel
Natural gas closed at moderate losses, down 1.5% to $1.99/MMBtu following continued calls for warm weather patterns in the Midwest and NE US.
Copper closed +2.7% to $2.12/lb

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/Platinum/InDepth/InPlay.htm#ixzz3uAyBZV3e

Treasuries

Treasury Market Summary

Treasuries Rip Higher

The U.S. Treasury complex moved higher today in an almost one-way trade, shrugging off higher-than-expected growth in the producer price index and instead focusing on stress in the high-yield bond market and jitters in share prices. WTI crude fell again, notching its worst weekly loss since March, and that may have convinced investors that the PPI would move back to the previously prevailing level rather quickly. The highly anticipated December FOMC rate decision will be released on Wednesday of next week
Yield Check:
- 2-yr: -5 bps to 0.90%
- 5-yr: -11 bps to 1.56%
- 10-yr: -10 bps to 2.13%
- 30-yr: -9 bps to 2.87%

News:
- The headline producer price index (PPI) grew 0.3% m/m in November, beating the Briefing.com consensus for a decline of 0.1%. The headline PPI fell 0.4% in October
  - The core PPI also climbed 0.3% in November, ahead of the Briefing.com consensus of 0.1% and exceeding October's decline of 0.3%
- Retail sales grew 0.2% m/m in November, slightly missing the Briefing.com consensus of 0.3%. The October change was 0.1%
  - Retail sales excluding automobiles rose 0.4% in November, better than the Briefing.com consensus of 0.3% and the prior reading of 0.1% (revised down from 0.2%)
- Business inventories were unchanged in October after rising 0.1% (revised down from 0.3%) in September. The Briefing.com consensus was for 0.1% growth
  - Retailer inventories were the only unknown and they increased 0.1% in October on top of a 0.8% increase in September. The breakdown of retailer inventories showed increases for building materials (+1.1%), food and beverage stores (+0.3%), and general merchandise stores (+0.3%). There were inventory declines registered for motor vehicles (-0.4%), furniture and home furnishings (-0.7%), and clothing stores (-0.1%)
- The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 91.8 in December from 93.1 in November. The Briefing.com consensus estimate was 91.6
  - The improvement stemmed from a better feeling about current conditions, evidenced by a jump in the Current Economic Conditions Index to 107.0 from 104.3
- Mutual fund company Third Avenue Management barred investors in a high-yield bond fund from redeeming their shares on Thursday. The company will liquidate the fund, but found that it couldn't meet redemption requests except at fire-sale prices

Commodities:
- WTI crude: -3.02% to $35.65/bbl.
- Gold: +0.53% to $1,077.40/troy oz.
- Copper: +1.79% to $2.1095/lb.

Currencies:
- EUR/USD: +0.51% to $1.0993
- USD/JPY: -0.94% to 120.80

Week Ahead:
- Monday: No scheduled events
- Tuesday: November CPI and Core CPI (08:30 ET); December Empire Manufacturing (08:30 ET); December NAHB Housing Market Index (10:00 ET); October Net Long-Term TIC Flows (16:00 ET)
- Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Purchase Index for the week ending 12/12 (07:00 ET); November Building Permits and Housing Starts (08:30 ET); November Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production (09:15 ET); Crude Inventories for the week ending 12/12 (10:30 ET); December FOMC Rate Decision and Press Conference(14:00 ET)
- Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 12/12 and Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending 12/5 (08:30 ET); Q3 Current Account Balance (08:30 ET); December Philadelphia Fed (08:30 ET); November Leading Indicators (10:00 ET); Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending 12/12 (10:30 ET); $16 bln 5-year TIPS auction reopening (results at 13:00 ET)
- Friday: Richmond Fed President Lacker (FOMC voter in 2015) participates in panel discussion on economy (12:30 ET)

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/Platinum/InDepth/InPlay.htm#ixzz3uAyFO6Rh

On other news....

Currencies

Currency Market Summary

Dollar and Commodity Producers Fall

The greenback fell against all major currencies but those of commodity producers today, as sharp declines in Treasury yields reduced the attraction of holding U.S. dollars. While the economic data out of the U.S. was mixed, the producer price index showed green shoots of the inflation that the Fed has been trying to guide back up to 2% since the financial crisis
U.S. Dollar Index: -0.37% to 97.57
EUR/USD: +0.43% to $1.0984
- Both Germany's consumer price index (CPI) and its harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) rose 0.1% m/m in November, as expected and in line with October's readings
- Italian unemployment fell to a better-than-expected 11.7% in the third quarter from a downwardly revised 12.3% in Q2
  - Italian industrial production climbed 0.5% m/m in October, better than both economists' expectations and the 0.2% growth in September
- The French current account balance swung to a deficit in October of EUR 1.40 bln from a surplus of EUR 0.30 bln in September
GBP/USD: +0.54% to $1.5233
- Inflation expectations in the U.K. remain at 2.0% according to a Bank of England survey
USD/CHF: -0.62% to 0.9828
USD/JPY: -0.98% to 120.74
USD/CAD: +0.69% to 1.3742
AUD/USD: -0.85% to $0.7199
NZD/USD: -0.46% to $0.6717
- New Zealand's Business NZ purchasing managers' index jumped to 54.7 in November from 53.3 in October
USD/RUB: +2.22% to 70.27
- Russia's central bank left its main policy rate unchanged at 11.00%, citing continuing inflationary pressure

Next Week In View

Economic Commentaries

Economic Summary: Retail sales roughly in-line; PPI higher than expected; Fed expected to hike rates next Wednesday

Economic Data:

November retail sales grew 0.2% vs. the +0.3% Briefing.com Consensus
November retail sales ex-autos grew 0.4% vs. the +0.3% Briefing.com Consensus
- Sales were up in in most areas. The exceptions there were motor vehicles (-0.4%), furniture and home furnishings (-0.3%), building materials (-0.3%), gasoline stations (-0.8%), and health and personal care stores (0.0%). All other areas, including clothing (+0.8%) and nonstore retailers (+0.6%), saw monthly sales gains ranging from 0.6% to 0.8%.
November PPI was up 0.3% vs. the +0.1% Briefing.com Consensus from -0.4%
Core PPI (ex-food and energy) +0.3% vs. the +0.1% Briefing.com Consensus from -0.3%
December Michigan Consumer Sentiment 91.8 vs. 91.6 Briefing.com Consensus and 91.3 in November.
- The Current Economic Conditions Index to 107.0 from 104.3. The Index of Consumer Expectations, meanwhile, dipped to 82.0 from 82.9, as respondents generally felt less optimistic about the prospects for the national economy in 2016.
October Business Inventories 0.0% vs. +0.1% Briefing.com Consensus and +0.3% in September.
- The inventory-to-sales ratio held steady at 1.38; however, that is up noticeably from the same period a year ago when it stood at 1.31.

Upcoming economic data:

CPI Empire Manufacturing and NAHB Housing Market data will be released on Tuesday morning

Fed officials are in a quiet period ahead of next Wednesday's FOMC meeting (December 16) where the Fed is widely expected to raise rates (25 bps) for the first time since June of 2006. The odds of the Fed moving will creep lower if the markets continue to collapse early next week. The Fed funds target was cut to 0.00-0.25% in December of 2008 in the midst of the financial crisis.

Market Call:Volatile to the Upside

Date: 14-18 Dec 2015

4 Dec - Market remains volatile as economic data shakes the market

2015-12-06T08:18:00.003-08:00

21 Feb 2014 AMC - Market facing resistance with tech lagging

Jason's Commentaries

As expected, the market remained highly volatile, sideways as economic data continues to bombard the market.

Firstly, the Australian market decides to hold their rates at record low at 2%. Secondly, the Chinese's manufacturing came in slightly better than expected but on a contracting streak, ECB reduces deposit rate to -0.3% and the employment data came in fantastic and finally the OPEC meeting happening on Friday.

The main blow to the market was the ECB's decision and the employment data. ECB's decision caused the market to dive on Thursday but the outstanding job report at 211k jobs generated manage to turn the tide around. The market is likely to stay sidelined or possibly pricing into the rate hike decision on 16 Dec. We could see some profit taking on Monday and some volatility the next few days. If nothing major is happening, i would think that market will end up higher the next week, potentially below 2115 points on the S&P500.

Volumes remained healthy but there might be a switch to defensive mode as the Consumer Staples led the rally on Friday, followed by the Tech and Financials.

Currently the market is on a standby mode, potentially having their holidays and awaiting the Fed decision.

Market Summary

European Markets Closing Prices
European markets are now closed; stock markets across Europe performed as follows:

UK's FTSE: -0.6%
Germany's DAX: -0.3%
France's CAC: -0.3%
Spain's IBEX: -0.1%
Portugal's PSI: -0.6%
Italy's MIB Index: + 0.1%
Irish Ovrl Index: + 0.3%
Greece ASE General Index: -1.6%

Before Market Opens

S&P futures vs fair value: +9.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.00.

The S&P 500 futures trade nine points above fair value.

Markets in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly lower note. Most regional indices saw downward pressure that echoed the negative sentiment seen in the global equity markets following yesterday's ECB's monetary policy update. This was particularly the case in Japan. The Nikkei closed over 2.0% lower with strength in the yen (post ECB release) taking its toll on the majority of exporters. There was some positive data for the Japanese economy with the release of October Average Cash Earnings rising to a 6-month high at +0.7%, while exceeding the +0.5% expectation. This had little impacts on the markets today, however, it should be noted the BOJ has cited this as a key metric in helping assess monetary policy. In China, the session was free of economic data with volume in the Shanghai Composite (-1.7%) on the lower end of the norm.

In economic data:
- Japan's Average Cash Earnings +0.7% year-over-year (consensus 0.4%; prior 0.4%), October Overtime Pay +1.2% year-over-year (last 1.4%), and November Household Confidence 42.6 (expected 41.8; previous 41.5)
- Australia's October Retail Sales +0.5% month-over-month, as expected (previous +0.4%)
- New Zealand's ANZ Commodity Price Index -5.6% month-over-month (previous 7.1%)

------

Japan's Nikkei declined 2.2% on a day that saw all of its sectors ending in negative territory. Energy names outperformed the broader market, with only a 0.4% decline on the back of stronger oil prices overnight. Consumer Discretionary names paced the way lower with the sector declining 2.6%. There were not many positive stock specific stories to note either. Shares of Nissan Motor fell 2.4% after the co released November sales in China. Sharp outperformed the Nikkei, but still closed out the day 0.8% lower after the co announced it is looking to cut LCD inventories.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng ended the day down 0.8%, but managed to finish at its high. After the market opened ~1% lower, trading was range-bound with no catalysts to help the index attract aggressive buyers. Among the stocks dragging the broader market lower were shares of CIFI Holdings Group lost 1.1% after the company reported its November metrics, while CITIC Dameng Holdings dropped 1.8% after issuing cautious guidance. On a more positive note, Geely Automobile Holdings managed to gain 0.2% after the co released its November sales update
China's Shanghai Composite declined 1.7% after opening ~0.5% lower and failing to find any stability as the session advanced. China Vanke closed down 0.4% after the co released its November results. On the opposite end, China Railway Group posted a 1.5% gain after the announced an asset swap agreement.

Major European indices have climbed off their lows, making for a mixed session. In news, the Bank of France has lowered its growth and inflation outlook, expecting GDP growth of 1.4% in 2016 (down from 1.8%) and 1.6% in 2017 (down from 1.9%). Meanwhile, harmonized inflation is expected to increase 1.0% in 2016 (down from 1.4%) and 1.5% in 2017 (down from 1.7%).

Economic data was limited:
- Eurozone Retail PMI 48.5 (previous 51.3)
- Germany's October Factory Orders +1.8% month-over-month (expected 1.2%; previous -0.7%)
- Spain's October Industrial Production +4.0% year-over-year (consensus 3.6%; last 3.7%)
- Swiss November CPI -0.1% month-over-month (expected -0.1%; previous 0.1%); -1.4% year-over-year (consensus -1.3%; last -1.4%)

------

Germany's DAX is lower by 0.4% with health care names leading the retreat. Fresenius, Merck, and Bayer show losses between 1.6% and 2.8%. Financials trade in mixed fashion with Commerzbank up 0.2% while Deutsche Bank is lower by 0.3%. On the upside, Volkswagen outperforms, spiking 1.6%.
In France, the CAC has climbed 0.1% with financials and consumer names contributing to the strength. AXA, Carrefour, Credit Agricole, and Louis Vuitton have added between 0.2% and 4.2% while growth-sensitive Safran, Bouygues, and Lafarge are down between 1.2% and 2.4%.
UK's FTSE remains lower by 0.1% with roughly 60% of its components in the red. Carnival, InterContinental Hotels, Pearson, and Unilever have pressured the index with losses between 1.0% and 2.8%. On the flip side, miners and energy names outperform with Royal Dutch Shell, BP, Anglo American, Glencore, and BHP Billiton up between 1.3% and 2.3%.

Market Internals
Market Internals

Dow up to 17848 (+2.12%). S&P500 up to 2092 (+2.05%). Nasdaq up to 5142 (+2.08%). Action came on lower than average volume (NYSE 1002 mln vs. avg. of 940; NASDAQ 1883 mln vs. avg. of 1911), with advancers outpacing decliners (NYSE 2060/1083, NASDAQ 1865/995) and new lows outpacing new highs (NYSE 44/197, NASDAQ 58/108).

Relative Strength:

Gold Miners -GDX +4.67%, S Physical Platinum Shares-PPLT +4%, Junior Gold Mine-GDXJ +3.72%, Global X Silver Miners -SIL +3.37%, Silver Trust-SLV +3.12%, Israel Capped Inve-EIS +2.2763%, All Peru Capped ET-EPU +2.26%, Indonesia -IDX +2.15%, S&P Retail -XRT +1.69%, Provident Financial Services-PFS +1.61%

Relative Weakness:

iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Fu-VXX -8.54%, Capital XVI JP M-AMJ -3.39%, S&P Oil & Gas Explor & Pro-XOP -2.63%, United States Oil -USO -2.545%, TR Russia -RSX -2.518%, Global X Colombia -GXG -2.2%, S&P Middle East & Africa E-GAF -2.105%, Oil Services -OIH -1.85%, Turkey Investable -TUR -0.91%, South Africa -EZA -0.8%

Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

Commentaries

Closing Market Summary: Stocks Erase Week's Losses After Better Than Expected Employment Situation Report

The stock market enjoyed a broad rally on Friday that lifted the S&P 500 (+2.1%) back above its 200-day moving average (2,065). The daylong surge helped the benchmark index turn this week's loss into a slim gain of 0.1%.

Equities charged out of the gate and doubled their gains during afternoon action even though the November Employment Situation report came in ahead of expectations (211,000; Briefing.com consensus 196,000), which is unlikely to get in the way of the Federal Reserve's rate hike plans.

Interestingly, Treasuries stumbled immediately after the release of today's data, but they followed that move with a charge to new session highs. The 10-yr note ended near its best level of the session, pressuring its yield four basis points to 2.27%. Meanwhile, the Dollar Index (98.35, +0.43) climbed 0.4%, erasing a portion of its 2.3% loss from yesterday.

Nine of ten sectors ended the day in the green while energy (-0.6%) spent the day in negative territory with crude oil contributing to the weakness. WTI crude settled near its low, surrendering 2.4% to $40.08/bbl. The energy component fell from the $41.50/bbl level this morning in reaction to reports that OPEC has agreed to increase its daily production target to 31.5 million barrels from 30.0 million; however, the official OPEC statement released in the late morning did not specify a production target. For the week, crude oil lost 3.9% while the energy sector fell 4.6%.

On the flip side, nine groups posted gains with eight adding 1.4% or more. Top-weighted sectors traded comfortably ahead of their peers with technology (+2.5%), financials (+2.7%), and health care (+2.4%) holding the lead into the close. The technology sector rallied thanks to relative strength in large cap names like Apple (AAPL 119.03, +3.83),Alphabet (GOOGL 779.21, +11.01), and Microsoft (MSFT 55.91, +1.71) while high-beta chipmakers underperformed intraday, but the PHLX Semiconductor Index rallied into the close to end the day higher by 1.9%.

Elsewhere among cyclical sectors, the industrial space (+1.5%) spent the day behind the broader market due to relative weakness among transport stocks. The Dow Jones Transportation Average climbed 0.8%, but railroad names struggled with Norfolk Southern (NSC 92.06, -1.05) falling 1.1% after rejecting an unsolicited offer from Canadian Pacific (CP 134.49, -6.42).

Today's daylong charge invited above-average participation with nearly a billion shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data included Nonfarm Payrolls and Trade Balance:

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 211,000 (Briefing.com consensus 196,000)
- October nonfarm payrolls revised to 298,000 from 271,000
Private sector payrolls increased by 197,000 (Briefing.com consensus 185,000)
- October private sector payrolls revised to 304,000 from 268,000
Unemployment rate was 5.0% (Briefing.com consensus 5.0%) versus 5.0% in October
- The U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for the total unemployed plus persons marginally attached to the labor force and the underemployed, was 9.9% versus 9.8% in October
- Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) after increasing 0.4% in October
- The average workweek was 34.5 hours (Briefing.com consensus 34.5) versus 34.6 hours in October
- The labor force participation rate was 62.5% versus 62.4% in October
The US trade deficit widened to $43.90 billion from an upwardly revised $42.50 billion (from -$40.80 billion) in September while the Briefing.com consensus expected the trade deficit to be $43.0 billion
- October exports were $184.10 billion, which was $2.70 billion less than September exports. October imports were $228.00 billion, which was $1.30 billion less than September imports

Monday's data will be limited to the 15:00 ET release of the October Consumer Credit report.

Nasdaq Composite +8.6% YTD
S&P 500 +1.6% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average +0.1% YTD
Russell 2000 -1.5% YTD

Week in Review: Stocks Wobble

The stock market began the trading week on a modestly lower note with the S&P 500 surrendering 0.5% after spending the day in a 13-point range. The Monday session marked the end of November, a month during which the S&P 500 added 0.1% while the Nasdaq Composite (+1.1%) outperformed. Equities held slim gains at the start of the trading day, but the early strength faded quickly, sending the S&P 500 below its flat line where the index remained into the afternoon. The S&P 500 tried to stage a rebound during afternoon action, but that move was followed by a slip to new lows. The benchmark index settled near its worst level of the day, masking gains in five of ten sectors. For instance, energy (+0.4%) and technology (+0.1%) outperformed from the start, but their strength could not lift the overall market. The energy sector settled in the lead even though crude oil surrendered a solid intraday gain to end lower by 0.2% at $41.63/bbl. For the month, WTI crude tumbled 10.7% while the energy sector lost 0.8%.

On Tuesday, the stock market began December on an upbeat note with the S&P 500 climbing 1.1% while the Nasdaq Composite (+0.9%) settled just behind. All in all, the session was very quiet as the S&P 500 marked its high during the opening hour and inched above that level during afternoon action. The index briefly slipped from the morning high after economic data showed that the ISM Index (48.6; Briefing.com consensus 50.4) registered its first contractionary reading (below 50) in 36 months. The disappointing report was met with a spike in Treasuries that sent the 10-yr note to a fresh high. The benchmark instrument settled on its best level of the day, pressuring its yield six basis points to 2.15%. All ten sectors posted gains with heavily-weighted groups like health care (+1.7%), technology (+1.1%), consumer discretionary (+1.0%), and financials (+1.3%) ending in the lead.

The market ended the midweek session on a broadly lower note with the S&P 500 sliding 1.1% while the Nasdaq (-0.6%) settled a bit ahead. Equity indices spent the first 90 minutes of the session near their flat lines, but the energy sector (-3.1%) struggled from the start and accelerated its retreat into the afternoon, which dragged down the entire market. Meanwhile, the remaining groups held up relatively well at the start, but they could not resist the pressure, which intensified as the session wore on. Interestingly, the selling in the market accelerated shortly after Fed Chair Janet Yellen concluded her speech at the Economic Club of Washington with the remarks being perceived as a sign that the Fed is ready to raise rates at the December policy meeting.

Equities ended Thursday on a woeful note after global investors reduced their equity exposure in reaction to an underwhelming policy statement from the European Central Bank. The S&P 500 lost 1.4%, falling below its 200-day moving average (2,065), while the Nasdaq Composite (-1.7%) underperformed. The key indices held slim gains at the open, but that proved to be a mirage as the market marched lower throughout the day after the European Central Bank made a slight adjustment to its interest rate corridor (deposit facility rate down to -0.3% from -0.2%, marginal lending facility unch at +0.3%, and main refinancing rate unch at +0.05%), but did not increase the size of its asset purchases, thus disappointing a global equity complex that was hungry for more stimulus. The euro responded by having its best day of the year, soaring nearly 450 pips off its intraday low against the dollar to 1.0950. In turn, the Dollar Index (97.79, -2.25) plunged 2.3% to early November levels.

Commodities

Closing Commodities: WTI Falls Following OPEC, Closes At $40

The dollar index remained in positive territory, which helped weigh on select commodities
However, precious metals climbed higher and remain near today's highs
Feb gold finished up today's session +2.2% at $1084.40/oz, while Mar silver +3.1% at $14.52/oz
Oil prices slid lower today following OPEC's meeting and decision to raise its oil output ceiling target
Jan crude fell $2.00/barrel off of today's high to close at $40.00/barrel in pit trading. Crude oil finished at $40.07.
Jan nat gas ended flat at $2.18/MMBtu

Energy closing prices: WTI oil falls following OPEC decision closes right at $40.00/barrel

January crude oil futures fell $1.09 (-2.6%) to $40.00/barrel
January natural gas closed unchanged at $2.18/MMBtu
RBOB Gasoline closed $0.01 lower at $1.28/gallon
Heating oil futures closed $0.01 lower at $1.35/gallon

Agricultural closing prices

March corn closed $0.05 higher at $3.81/bushel
March wheat closed $0.06 higher at $4.84/bushel
January soybeans closed $0.09 higher at $9.06/bushel
March Sugar #11 closed $0.10 cents lower at 15.48 cents/lb

Metals closing prices

February gold ended today's session $22.90 higher (+2.2%) at $1084.40/oz
March silver closed today's session $0.43 higher (+3.1%) at $14.52/oz
March copper closed $0.03 at $2.08/lb

Treasuries

Treasury Market Summary

Treasuries Shake off Positive Data to Finish Higher

The U.S. Treasury complex gained back some of Thursday's losses in a curve-flattening rally. The November employment report showed that the U.S. economy added 211K nonfarm jobs, beating the Briefing.com consensus of 196K, and featured a 27K-job upward revision to the October number (298K versus 271K initial estimate). Hourly earnings were stagnant, but this is still a heady pace of job growth and shows that October was not a fluke. Particularly because the employment report data series is very volatile and subject to large revisions, the confirmation that October was a very strong month for the economy was reassuring. Since Treasuries got battered on Thursday, they did find a relief rally today, but there was little in the jobs data to support bullishness on Treasuries
Yield Check:
- 2-yr: -1 bp to 0.94%
- 5-yr: -3 bps to 1.71%
- 10-yr: -4 bps to 2.27%
- 30-yr: -4 bps to 40.11%

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/Platinum/InDepth/InPlay.htm#ixzz3tYbwgWWA

On other news....

Currencies

Currency Market Summary

Dollar Finds Relief Rally

The U.S. Dollar Index rallied 0.73% to 98.34 today, making back some of Thursday's ECB rate decision-inspired losses
- The U.S. economy added 211K nonfarm payrolls in November after adding 298K in October (revised up from 271K). The Briefing.com consensus for November was 196K
- Hourly earnings grew 0.2%, in line with estimates. In October, hourly earnings grew 0.4%
- The trade deficit widened to -$43.9 in October from -$40.8 bln in September. The Briefing.com consensus was -$43 bln
EUR/USD: -0.62% to $1.08718
- German factory orders grew 1.8% m/m in October, beating expectations. Factory orders declined an upwardly revised 0.7% (from -1.7%) in September
- Industrial production in Spain grew by a better-than-expected 4.0% in the year to October, improving on the downwardly revised 3.7% (from 3.8%) y/y growth in September
GBP/USD: -0.24% to $1.5105
USD/CHF: +0.58% to 0.9981
- Switzerland's consumer price index fell 0.1% m/m in November, in line with expectations. The fall reversed a 0.1% rise in October
USD/JPY: +0.52% to 123.17
- Average cash earnings in Japan grew 0.7% in the year to October, beating both expectations and the downwardly revised 0.4% (from 0.6%) growth in September
- Household confidence in Japan climbed to a better-than-expected 42.6 in November from 41.5 in October
USD/CAD: +0.31% to 1.3381
- The Canadian economy lost 35.7K jobs in November, reversing the gain of 44.4K in October and missing analyst estimates
- The unemployment rate unexpectedly inched up to 7.1% from 7.0% in October
AUD/USD: unch at $0.7340
- Australian retail sales grew 0.5% m/m in October, in line with estimates and slightly higher than the 0.4% growth in September
NZD/USD: +0.74% to $0.6741
- The ANZ Commodity Price Index fell 5.6% m/m in November after gaining 6.9% in October
USD/RUB: +0.79% to 68.08
- Russia's consumer price index gained 15.0% in the year to November after gaining 15.6% y/y in October

Next Week In View

Economic Commentaries

Economic Summary: Nonfarm Payrolls top expectations; Unemployment remains at 5%

Economic Data Summary:

November Nonfarm Payrolls 211K vs Briefing.com consensus of 196K; October was 271K
November Nonfarm Private Payrolls 197K vs Briefing.com consensus of 185K; October was 268K
November Unemployment Rate 5.0% vs Briefing.com consensus of 5.0%; October was 5.0%
November Hourly Earnings 0.2% vs Briefing.com consensus of 0.2%; October was 0.4%
November Average Workweek 34.5 vs Briefing.com consensus of 34.5; October was 34.5
- The U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for the total unemployed plus persons marginally attached to the labor force and the underemployed, was 9.9% versus 9.8% in October
  Persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more accounted for 25.7% of the unemployed versus 26.8% in October
October Trade Balance -$43.9 bln vs Briefing.com consensus of -$43.0 bln; September was revised to -$42.5 bln from -$40.8 bln
- The export of goods decreased by $3.1 billion with industrial supplies and materials decreasing $1.6 billion, half of which was the result of a decrease in exports of fuel oil and other petroleum products. Capital goods exports decreased $0.9 billion, paced by a $0.5 billion drop in exports of industrial engines. Consumer goods exports dropped by $0.5 billion, with the entirety of that decline stemming from exports of artwork, antiques, stamps, and jewelry.

Upcoming Economic Data:

October Consumer Credit due out Monday at 15:00 (September was $28.9 bln)

Upcoming Fed/Treasury Events:

Philadelphia Fed President Harker (not a voting FOMC member) to speak today at 10:15 AM ET
Saint Louis Fed President James Bullard (not a voting FOMC member) to speak today at 15:45 PM ET and Monday at 11:30 AM ET.

Other International Events of Interest

Germany's October Factory Orders +1.8% month-over-month (expected 1.2%; previous -0.7%)

Market Call:UP

Date: 7 Dec 2015

29 Nov 2015 AMC - Market poised for a volatile week after Thanksgiving

2015-11-28T20:39:00.002-08:00

29 Nov 2015 AMC - Market poised for a volatile week after Thanksgiving

Jason's Commentaries

Approaching the Black Friday and Cyber Monday Sales, the market rallied in anticipation that the sale might be outstanding. This sale could be very critical to the US economy at present moment as the Fed might be looking at it to gauge the strength of the economy. If the sales numbers are good for the holiday sale, I believe the Fed might be more prone to raise the Fed Fund Rate in 2 Weeks time. However, the Fed's hands are tied and the max they can raise is 25 basis points. Facing very low inflation and deflation at the start of the year, Fed can't raise their rates very much else it will definitely send the US economy into a shock.

On the stock market, the market rallied from the drop at the end of Sep, completing the double bottom pattern. Right now, the market seemed to be on the uptrend with all sectors leading except Utilities and the Energy Sector. Nasdaq was able to rally much high and its counterparts due to much agressive M&A actions and earning results.

Volumes have picked up and averaged at around 950mil shares traded on the NYSE. VIX has been consolidating at approx 15 points which suggesting the market is not in a bearish mood at all.

Looking ahead, we're having a very volatile week ahead. With the employment reports coming out next week, we have other central banks like RBA, ECB, BOC annoucing their rates as well. It will be a wild ride for the currencies. However, I believed that the rates are likely to hold while awaiting Fed's decision.

Next week will likely to be consolidating as the economic matters bombard the market.

Market Summary

Before Market Opens

European Markets Closing Prices

European markets are now closed; stock markets across Europe performed as follows:

UK's FTSE: -0.3%
Germany's DAX: -0.2%
France's CAC: -0.3%
Spain's IBEX: -0.2%
Portugal's PSI: +0.3%
Italy's MIB Index: -0.1%
Irish Ovrl Index: -0.3%
Greece ASE General Index: +1.1%

S&P futures vs fair value: +2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.60.

The S&P 500 futures trade two points above fair value.

Asian markets ended lower across the board with China's Shanghai Composite diving 5.5% after securities regulators opened an investigation into securities brokers, including Citic Securities. Adding to the defensive sentiment was the October Industrial Profits report (-4.8%), which showed the fifth consecutive monthly decline.

In economic data:
- Japan's October Household Spending -2.4% year-over-year (consensus 0.1%; previous -0.4%) and October National CPI +0.3% (expected 0.0%; last 0.0%). Also of note, November Tokyo CPI +0.2% year-over-year, as expected and Tokyo Core CPI 0.0% (consensus -0.1%; prior -0.2%)

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China's Shanghai Composite fell 5.5% with financials and brokerage shares leading the retreat. Citic Securities plunged 10.0% while Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of China both lost near 3.0% apiece.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.9% and bank shares were also pressured. China Construction Bank, Industrial & Commercial Bank, and Ping An surrendered between 1.5% and 2.5% while CNOOC also lagged, falling 2.7%.
Japan's Nikkei shed 0.3% with Sharp, Yahoo Japan, and Konami falling 5.7%, 2.3%, and 1.5%, respectively. On the upside, Toshiba, Casio, and NEC outperformed with gains between 1.0% and 2.4%.

Major European indices trade in the vicinity of their flat lines with UK's FTSE (-0.2%) showing relative weakness. On a separate note, the latest reports regarding Greece indicate the country is expected to implement 13 more financial sector reforms before receiving a EUR1 billion aid package from the EU.

Economic data was plentiful:
- Eurozone November Consumer Confidence -6.0 (expected -8.0; prior -8.0) and November Business and Consumer Survey 106.1 (expected 105.9; prior 106.1)
- Germany's December GfK Consumer Climate 9.3 (expected 9.2; last 9.4) and October Import Price Index -4.1% year-over-year (consensus -3.9%; prior -4.0%)
- UK's preliminary Q3 GDP +0.5% quarter-over-quarter, as expected; +2.3% year-over-year, as expected. Separately, Q3 Business Investment +2.2% quarter-over-quarter (consensus 1.5%; last 1.6%)
- France's October PPI +0.2% (prior +0.1%) and October Consumer Spending -0.7% month-over-month (expected -0.1%; last 0.1%)
- Italy's November Business Confidence 104.6 (consensus 105.6; last 105.7) and Consumer Confidence 118.4 (expected 116.5; previous 117.0)
- Spain's CPI +0.3% month-over-month (expected 0.2%; previous 0.6%); -0.3% year-over-year (consensus -0.5%; last -0.7%)

------

UK's FTSE is lower by 0.3% with miners showing relative weakness. Anglo American, BHP Billiton, Fresnillo, and Rio Tinto lead the slight pullback with losses between 2.3% and 6.2%. On the upside, consumer and telecom names outperform with Dixons Carphone and Vodafone up 1.3% and 0.4%, respectively.
Germany's DAX hovers near its flat line with Infineon Technologies extending yesterday's earnings-driven gain. The stock has surged 3.2% while other advancers show gains of no more than 0.8% (Daimler and Continental). On the downside, RWE is lower by 2.4% and Volkswagen trades down 0.3%.
In France, the CAC trades flat amid strength in financials. AXA, BNP Paribas, and Credit Agricole have added between 0.2% and 1.4%. Consumer names have struggled with Louis Vuitton and Kering down 1.1% and 0.4%, respectively.

Market Internals

Nasdaq was up to 5128 (+0.22%). Dow was down to 17798 (-0.08%). S&P500 was up to 2090 (+0.06%). Today was half day. Action came on lower than average volume (NYSE 388 mln vs. avg. of 958; NASDAQ 779 mln vs. avg. of 1918), with advancers outpacing decliners (NYSE 1857/1216, NASDAQ 1739/1017) and new highs outpacing new lows (NYSE 94/48, NASDAQ 86/39).

Relative Strength:

First Trust ISE Global Wind Ene-FAN +1.79%, Sweden -EWD +1.25%, PowerShares WilderHill Clean En-PBW +1.21%, Cotton Sub-BAL +1.14%, Italy Capped -EWI +1.13%, Belgium Capped Inv-EWK +1.13%, Germany -EWG +1.12%, Austria Capped Inv-EWO +1.08%, Shipping -SEA +1.01%, iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Fu-VXX +0.93%

Relative Weakness:

TR Russia -RSX -3.97%, South Africa -EZA -3.61%, United States Natural Gas -UNG -3.34%, Vietnam -VNM -2.9%, Turkey Investable -TUR -2.85%, United States Oil -USO -2.76%, S&P Middle East & Africa E-GAF -2.72%, S&P Oil & Gas Explor & Pro-XOP -2.38%, Coal -KOL -2.23%, Junior Gold Mine-GDXJ -2.14%

Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

Commentaries

Closing Market Summary: Stocks End Flat Week on Quiet Note

The stock market meandered in a narrow range through the abbreviated Friday session, ending the day and the week on a flat note. The S&P 500 added 0.1% today, ending the week higher by two points (+0.1%).

Unsurprisingly, the Friday session was very quiet with trading volume running well below average. To that point, only 378 million shares changed hands at the NYSE floor. The lack of activity in the U.S. masked a relatively busy overnight session that featured a 5.5% dive in China's Shanghai Composite after regulators expanded their investigation into major securities brokers, including Citic Securities.

Once the focus shifted to the Wall Street session, equities ticked lower due to relative weakness in consumer discretionary (-0.4%) and energy (-0.7%), but gains in the remaining sectors offset the softness in the two cyclical groups.

Media names kept the discretionary sector under pressure with Dow component Disney (DIS 115.13, -3.54) falling 3.0% to mid-November levels. Meanwhile, the energy sector retreated as crude oil fell 2.5% to $41.97/bbl.

On the upside, the consumer staples sector (+0.4%) held the lead throughout the session while top-weighted technology (+0.2%) and financials (+0.2%) also finished ahead of the broader market. Chipmakers underpinned the tech sector after NXP Semiconductor (NXPI 88.36, +3.82) received clearance from the Federal Trade Commission to continue its acquisition ofFreescale Semiconductor (FSL 37.35, +1.45). The two names surged 4.6% and 4.0%, respectively, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index spiked 0.7%.

Treasuries held gains during overnight action, but they returned to little changed intraday with the 10-yr yield at 2.23%.

Investors did not receive any economic data today; however, Monday will include a couple releases with November Chicago PMI (Briefing.com consensus 55.0) and October Pending Home Sales (consensus 0.7%) set to be reported at 9:45 ET and 10:00 ET, respectively.

Nasdaq Composite +8.3% YTD
S&P 500 +1.5% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.1% YTD
Russell 2000 UNCH YTD

Week in Review: Stocks Hold Ground

The stock market began the trading week on a cautious note with the S&P 500 shedding 0.1%. The benchmark index surrendered its opening gain, ending in the middle of its trading range while the Dow (-0.2%) and Nasdaq (-0.1%) registered comparable losses. Equities climbed at the start with the early move supported by three sectors in particular. The energy sector (+0.7%) displayed some early volatility, but ended among the leaders even though crude oil slipped 0.3% to $41.78/bbl after making a brief appearance above $42.50/bbl. WTI crude briefly spiked in the morning after Saudi officials indicated their intent to stabilize the global energy market, but the energy component was back near its flat line in short order. Elsewhere among cyclical sectors, consumer discretionary (+0.4%) and materials (+0.1%) also settled ahead of the broader market. The discretionary sector benefitted from strength among retailers with SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 44.58, +0.42) climbing 1.0%.

Tuesday ended on a flat note with stocks overcoming an opening retreat that was fueled by a military incident, which is likely to invite geopolitical implications going forward. The S&P 500 added 0.1% while the Nasdaq Composite (unch) underperformed. Early in the morning, it was reported that the Turkish military shot down a Russian fighter jet, which allegedly violated Turkish airspace on the country's border with Syria. This marked the first time that a NATO member downed a Russian plane since the 1950s. After initial confusion, Russian military officials said that one pilot was rescued while the other was killed by Syrian opposition fighters after ejecting from the plane. The Russian defense ministry called the incident a "hostile act" while President Vladimir Putin terminated all Russian military cooperation with Turkey. Mr. Putin denied the incursion into Turkey, saying the action represented "backstabbing by accomplices of terrorists" and that it "goes beyond [the] fight against terror." The news was met with a spike in Treasuries and the 10-yr note then notched a new high shortly after the release of the second estimate of Q3 GDP (+2.1%; Briefing.com consensus +2.0%); however, the 10-yr note spent the rest of the day in a slow retreat from morning highs to end with a small gain that lowered the benchmark yield one basis point to 2.24%.

The stock market ended Wednesday on a flat note with trading volume running well below average as some market participants got an early jump on the Thanksgiving holiday. The S&P 500 settled just below its flat line while the Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%) outperformed. Investors received a boatload of economic data in the morning, but there was little response in the market as stocks opened flat and inched higher to establish narrow trading ranges that held throughout the day. For instance, the S&P 500 spent the session in a seven-point range with seven sectors offsetting gains in three groups that outperformed throughout the day. Heavily-weighted health care (+0.5%) and consumer discretionary (+0.5%) seized the lead in the early going and held their ground into the close. The health care sector received support from biotechnology, evidenced by a 1.1% spike in iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 338.85, +3.58).

Bond and equity markets were closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving.

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/Platinum/InDepth/InPlay.htm#ixzz3sqocEQPS

Treasuries

Treasury Market Summary: Waiting for the Big Week Ahead

The Treasury market closed Friday's session looking like the stock market did: mixed and little changed. More of the buying interest (what little there was) was concentrated in shorted-dated securities while longer-dated instruments sort of just sat there.
- 2-yr -2 bps at 0.92%
- 5-yr -2 bps at 1.65%
- 10-yr -1 bp at 2.22%
- 30-yr unch at 3.00%
The trading action was uneventful, which is not surprising given that it was an abbreviated session following Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday. The lack of any geopolitical upset also allowed for a pretty tame session.
There was also a wait-and-see element at work with traders cognizant that the coming week is going to contain a host of important developments:
- The IMF decision Monday on whether China's currency will be included in its Special Drawing Rights basket
- Several speaking engagements by Fed Chair Yellen, including her monetary policy testimony before the Joint Economic Committee on Thursday
- Manufacturing PMI reports from around the globe
- Central bank policy meetings for the Reserve Bank of Australia (Monday), the Reserve Bank of India (Tuesday), the Bank of Canada (Wednesday), and the European Central Bank (Thursday)
- OPEC's meeting on Friday; and
- The November Employment Situation Report on Friday
Friday's excitement was reserved primarily for the currency and commodity markets.
- The US Dollar Index traded as high as 100.20 with the euro and the Swiss franc weakening noticeably in front of next week's ECB meeting; however, the euro recouped just about everything it lost, which dropped the US Dollar Index back to 100.02.
- With the greenback's strength fading, there was no reprieve for oil prices. They settled down 3.1% at $41.71 per barrel. Gold also got hit, falling 1.3% to $1056.20 and suffering its sixth straight weekly decline.

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/Platinum/InDepth/InPlay.htm#ixzz3sqoUcuDg

On other news....

Currencies

Currency Commentary: DXY Holding 100

The Dollar Index is maintaining the 100 level but it has yet to test the multi-year high of 100.39 set back on March 13. It has been a quiet session as is typical of the post-Thanksgiving Friday. News out over Thanksgiving was light with headlines about the on-going feud between Russia and Turkey over the downed jet and the China 5% decline being the most notable. None of these are having a major impact on trade. Next week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak (Tue & Wed), the Fed Beige book is due out (Wed), and the November Jobs Report (Fri) will be closely followed events.
The euro is battling to hold the 1.06 level ahead of next week's ECB meeting (Thu). The central bank is expected to expand its current QE program in an attempt to boost growth and pricing. This will remain a significant headwind for the single currency.
The pound is holding the 1.50 level at the moment. The country did not see any revision to its Q3 GDP number which was up 0.5% q/q.
The yen continues to trade in the 122-123 area. The country saw its Unemployment Rate fall to 3.1% (from 3.4% in prior) and had a small beat on the CPI. But the inflation gauge remains well below the Bank of Japan's target. Household Spending in the region fell short of expectations.
The Swiss franc has been garnering attention this morning following its sudden decline at the open of European trade. The franc fell from 1.0230 to 1.0320 against the dollar. Against the euro it dropped from 1.0860 to 1.0920. The moves led to speculation that the SNB was back intervening in the currency. This would mark the first move by the central bank since it surprised markets and removed its 1.20 peg against the euro currency. The theory here is that the SNB is moving to protect its currency ahead of next week's ECB meeting (FOREX, BONDX).

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/Platinum/InDepth/InPlay.htm#ixzz3sqovc3jf

Next Week In View

Economic Commentaries

Economic Summary: No US data today; Existing Home Sales Monday at 10:00 AM ET

Upcoming Economic Data:

Chicago PMI for November due out Monday at 09:45 ET (Briefing.com consensus 55.0; Prior 56.2) and October Pending Home Sales (Briefing.com consensus +0.7%; prior -2.3%) due at 10:00 ET

Other International Events of Interest

Eurozone November Consumer Confidence -6.0 (expected -8.0; prior -8.0) and November Business and Consumer Survey 106.1 (expected 105.9; prior 106.1)
Equities in China tumbled after a few securities brokers disclosed government investigations into their businesses. In addition, industrial profits fell for the fifth consecutive month

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/Platinum/InDepth/InPlay.htm#ixzz3sqp22Ahc

Weekly Market Call: Volatile to downside

Date: 29 Nov 2015

Week 3

2015-01-24T15:11:00.002-08:00

21 Feb 2014 AMC - Market facing resistance with tech lagging

Market Summary

http://finviz.com/

Before Market Opens

Market Internals

http://briefing.com/investor/markets/market-internals/

http://briefing.com/Investor/Markets/Market-Internals/nyse/2015/01/23

http://briefing.com/Investor/Markets/Market-Internals/nasdaq/2015/01/23

http://www.cboe.com/data/mktstat.aspx

Leaders and Laggards

http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/sectors

http://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec

Technical Updates

Commentaries

23-Jan-15 16:10 ET

Dow -141.38 at 17672.60, Nasdaq +7.48 at 4757.88, S&P -11.33 at 2051.82

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market capped a solid week with a shaky Friday session. The S&P 500 lost 0.6%, but still gained 1.6% for the week while the Nasdaq Composite (+0.2%) was able to register its fifth consecutive advance.

Equity indices began the day amid selling activity that started in the futures market after UPS (UPS 102.93, -11.32) issued disappointing guidance due to weakness in the U.S. domestic segment. The logistics company plunged below its 100-day moving average to end lower by 9.9%. The big loss weighed on the Dow Jones Transportation Average, which lost 1.8% and pressured the industrial sector (-0.8%).

The S&P 500 followed the opening slip with an eight-point rally off its morning low after European Central Bank member Benoit Coeure said the bank will need to do more if the quantitative easing program that was announced yesterday does not produce the desired outcome.

Despite the morning charge off session lows, the index never made it into the green and slid to a new low during the final hour of the trading day. The industrial sector kept the pressure on the market throughout the day while other influential groups like financials (-1.0%) and consumer staples (-1.1%) kept the S&P 500 from moving into the green.

The financial sector struggled despite better than expected reports from a slew of regional banks. The economically-sensitive group widened its January decline to 3.5% in response to a combination of slow global growth and sinking yields around the world.

Elsewhere, the consumer staples sector hovered near the bottom of the leaderboard after Kimberly-Clark (KMB 111.65, -7.33) reported below-consensus results and issued cautious guidance, which failed to justify the company's rich valuation.

Also of note, the energy space (-0.9%) spent the bulk of the day in-line with the market, but finished among the laggards as crude oil remained weak. The energy component showed overnight volatility after it was reported Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah has died.

WTI crude was able to make an intraday appearance in the green, but ended lower by 1.8% at $45.56/bbl. Once again, dollar strength was a headwind with the Dollar Index (94.92, +0.86) spiking 0.9%.

On the upside, utilities (+0.3%) and technology (+0.2%) were the only two advancers. The utilities sector solidified its spot atop the January leaderboard (+4.2%) while technology received support from large cap names. Chipmakers were not as fortunate with the PHLX Semiconductor Index ending lower by 0.3%. The high-beta group finished ahead of the S&P 500, but behind the tech sector after KLA-Tencor (KLAC 65.42, -5.53) issued disappointing guidance that overshadowed better than expected results.

Outside of technology, the consumer discretionary sector (-0.2%) was the only other group able to finish near its flat line. Starbucks (SBUX 88.12, +5.38) soared 6.5% even though its in-line report featured below-consensus guidance for the second quarter while McDonald's (MCD 89.56, -1.33) lost 1.5% after missing estimates and priming the market for negative comparable store sales in January.

Treasuries ended near their highs with the 10-yr yield sliding six basis points to 1.80%. Meanwhile, the long bond spiked to pressure its yield to the lowest close on record (2.39%).

Participation was a bit below average with roughly 765 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data was limited to Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators:

Existing home sales increased 2.4% in December to 5.04 million SAAR from a downwardly revised 4.92 million SAAR (from 4.93 million SAAR) in November while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase to 5.10 million SAAR.
- Improvements in the labor market, gains in stock prices, and a general decline in mortgage rates were not enough to boost housing demand in 2014. For the year, 4.93 million homes were sold, which was down 3.1% from the 5.09 million homes sold in 2013
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index increased 0.5% in December (consensus 0.5%) after increasing a downwardly revised 0.4% (from 0.6%) in November

There is no economic data on Monday's schedule, but investors will be responding to the results of the Greek election and its implications for financial markets.

Nasdaq Composite +0.5% YTD
S&P 500 -0.3% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.8% YTD
Russell 2000 -1.1% YTD

Commodities

Treasuries

On other news....

Currencies

Weekly Analysis

Technical Updates

Briefing's Commentaries

Week in Review: Action Driven By Central Banks

Bond and equity markets were closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Day

The stock market kicked off the holiday-shortened week with a shaky Tuesday session. The S&P 500 settled higher by 0.2% after finding intraday support near its 100-day moving average (2007/2008). The tech-heavy Nasdaq outperformed, climbing 0.4%. Equity indices started the day with modest gains, but continued weakness in crude oil weighed on the overall risk tolerance and contributed to an early retreat. However, a handful of influential sectors were able to withstand the selling pressure, which in turn became a supportive factor during afternoon action. As for crude, the energy component retreated after The International Monetary Fund cut its 2015 global growth outlook to 3.0% from 3.5%, and continued sliding throughout the session. WTI crude ended lower by 4.1% at $46.51/bbl while the energy sector (+0.1%) settled near its flat line. Baker Hughes (BHI) beat estimates, but announced plans to reduce its workforce by 7,000 employees.

Equities enjoyed their third consecutive advance on Wednesday with the S&P 500 climbing 0.5%. The Wednesday session was filled with central bank-related storylines. The Bank of Japan got the ball rolling overnight by lowering its inflation outlook to 1.0% from 1.7%, which boosted the yen (117.80). The Bank of England was next on tap with the minutes from its latest policy meeting. The minutes were a bit surprising as Messrs. McCafferty and Weale, who previously voted in favor of rate hikes, rejoined the majority in their belief that hiking rates too early would prolong the period of low inflation. Global equities jumped off their lows in reaction to reports indicating the European Central Bank is set to propose EUR50 billion in asset purchases through 2016. The euro wobbled on the news before ending the day near 1.1590 against the dollar. In a surprising move, Germany's 10-yr note tumbled, sending the benchmark yield higher by seven basis points to 0.47%. The Bank of Canada completed the central bank bonanza with a surprise 25-basis point cut to 0.75% in response to crashing oil prices, which are expected to put downward pressure on Canadian inflation. The loonie retreated to its lowest level since early 2009, sending USDCAD to 1.2330 from 1.2070.

The major averages registered their fourth consecutive advance on Thursday with the S&P 500 (+1.5%) reclaiming its 50-day moving average (2046/2047). The benchmark index erased its January loss while the Russell 2000 (+2.0%) displayed relative strength throughout the day. This week featured action from several major central banks and that extravaganza was topped off on Thursday when the European Central Bank announced the highly-anticipated launch of a quantitative easing program in the amount of EUR60 billion per month. In short, the program is aimed at stopping deflation that is due, in part, to low oil prices. However, the thought process behind the action is a bit questionable considering QE is expected to weigh on the euro, which will boost the dollar, thus putting pressure on dollar-denominated commodities like crude oil, which is at the root of eurozone's deflationary tilt.

Read more: http://briefing.com/investor/markets/stock-market-update/2015/1/23/stocks-slip-but-maintain-weekly-gains.htm#ixzz3PmdQeGma

Next Week In View

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?week=jan25.2015

Economic Commentaries

Jason's Commentaries

Market Call: FLAT to upside

Date: 24 Feb 2014

2015 Week 2 info for CT students

2015-01-17T02:46:00.003-08:00

21 Feb 2014 AMC - Market facing resistance with tech lagging

Market Summary

Before Market Opens

Market Internals

Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

Commentaries

Closing Market Summary: Stocks Rally to Snap Five-Day Losing Streak
The major averages snapped their five-day losing streak with a broad-based advance on Friday. The S&P 500 (+1.3%) reclaimed its 100-day moving average (2,007) and narrowed its weekly decline to 1.2%.

The stock market was on shaky footing in the early going, but the overall risk tolerance was improved by a rebound in crude oil, which continued climbing throughout the session to end higher by 4.6% at $48.50/bbl. That advance bolstered the energy sector (+3.2%), which spent the day in the lead.

Meanwhile, the remaining cyclical groups ended a bit closer to their flat lines. The materials sector (+1.7%) outperformed with help from steelmakers and miners while the discretionary sector (+1.3%) settled in line with the broader market. As for the remaining three growth-sensitive groups, financials (+1.2%), industrials (+0.7%), and technology (+0.9%) spent the day behind the broader market.

The financial sector could not catch up to the S&P 500 as Goldman Sachs (GS 177.23, -1.26) weighed. The stock fell 0.7% despite better than expected results from the investment bank. Also of note, foreign exchange broker FXCM (FXCM 12.63, 0.00) agreed to terms on a $300 million lifeline provided by Leucadia National (LUK 21.84, +0.20) after yesterday's surge in the Swiss franc caused about $225 million in negative client balances at FXCM. Shares of FXCM were halted throughout the session after surrendering almost 90.0% in pre-market action.

Elsewhere, the technology sector struggled to keep pace with the market as Apple (AAPL 105.94, -0.88) weighed. The largest sector component lost 0.8% while most other heavily-weighted tech names settled with gains. On the earnings front, Intel (INTC 36.45, +0.26) gained 0.7% after beating bottom-line estimates. For its part, the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+1.1%) ended just behind the S&P 500.

Over on the countercyclical side, consumer staples (+0.8%) and utilities (+0.9%) underperformed throughout the day while telecom services (+1.7%) and health care (+1.9%) spent the day among the leaders. The health care sector was bolstered by high-beta biotechnology names, evidenced by a 3.3% gain in the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 317.82, +10.12). The ETF was able to add 1.4% for the week versus a slim uptick of 0.2% for the health care sector.

Treasuries notched their highs in the early morning before spending the session in a steady retreat that sent the benchmark 10-yr yield higher by 11 basis points to 1.82%.

Friday's participation was ahead of average with 950 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data included CPI, Industrial Production, and Michigan Sentiment:

· The CPI declined 0.4% in December after declining 0.3% in November while the Briefing.com Consensus expected a decline of 0.4%

o Prices are up only 0.8% year-over-year, which is the smallest increase since October 2009

o The energy index, which has fallen for the past six consecutive months, declined 4.7% in December

o Food prices increased 0.3% in December, up from a 0.2% increase in November

o Excluding food and energy, core CPI was flat in December (consensus +0.1%) after increasing 0.1% in November

· Industrial production declined 0.1% in December after increasing an unrevised 1.3% in November (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%)

o The decline in industrial production can be blamed on warmer-than-normal temperatures that reduced the demand for heating. According to the National Climatic Data Center, December 2014 was the second warmest December on record. That was a large reversal from November, which was the coldest November since 2000. The shift in temperatures resulted in a 7.3% decline in utilities production

o Capacity utilization hit 79.7% while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 79.9%

· The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index jumped to 98.2 in the preliminary January reading from 93.6 in December while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase to 94.1

o That was the highest reading since the index reached 103.8 in January 2004

Bond and equity markets will be closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Day.

On Tuesday, the NAHB Housing Market Index will be released at 10:00 ET.

· Dow Jones Industrial Average -1.8% YTD

· S&P 500 -1.9% YTD

· Nasdaq Composite -2.2% YTD

· Russell 2000 -2.5% YTD

Commodities

Treasuries

30Y Sinks to All-Time Low: 10Y: -30/32.1.816%..USD/JPY: 117.49..EUR/USD: 1.1564
The Week in Review

· Treasuries rallied throughout the week and extended their streak to 15 gains in 16 sessions. Click here to see an intraday yields chart.

· Rate differentials with Europe remained a driver as money continued to pour into higher yielding U.S. debt

· Aiding the advance was the decision by the Swiss National Bank to end its EUCHF1.20 floor. The announcement caused panic all over the world and pushed money into the safety of the complex.

· U.S. economic data was mixed. Retail sales (-0.9% actual v. +0.1% expected) and Philly Fed (9.9 actual v. 6.5 expected) missed while Empire Manufacturing (9.9 actual v. 6.5 expected) and Michigan Sentiment (98.2 actual v. 94.1 expected) outpaced estimates. Pricing pressures were mixed as Core PPI (0.3% actual v. 0.1% expected) was hot and Core CPI (0.0% actual v. 0.1% expected) was cool.

· This week's auctions started off strong, but disappointed as they progressed.

· Monday's strong $24B 3Y note auction drew 92.6bps and a 3.33x bid/cover. Indirect bidders (45.8%) provided support as directs (14.8%) were a bit light. Primary dealers were left with just 39.4% of the supply.

· Tuesday's $21B 10Y note reopening disappointed. The reopening drew 1.930% (WI 1.916%) and a light 2.61x bid/cover. Indirect (50.0%) and direct (9.2%) bids both missed their 12-auction averages, leaving primary dealers with 40.8% of the supply.

· Wednesday's $13B 30Y bond reopening was tepid. The reopening drew 2.430% (WI 2.411%) and a light 2.32x bid/cover. Indirect bids (48.9%) provided support as directs (13.7%) missed their 12-auction averages. Primary dealers ended up with 37.4% of the supply.

· Up front, the 2Y fell -10bps to 47.6bps. The yield broke below support in the 55bp area on its way to printing at levels last seen around Halloween.

· In the belly, the 5Y eased -16bps to 1.283%. This week's action dropped the yield to its lowest levels since June 2013.

· The 10Y shed -16bps to 1.815%. On Friday, the benchmark yield hit a 20-month of 1.700% before seeing a sharp reversal.

· Buying at the long end pushed the 30Y down -12bps to 2.435%. This week's action dropped the yield on the long bond to a record low 2.353%.

· A flatter curve took hold as the 2-10-yr spread tightened to 134bps.

The Week Ahead

· Markets are closed Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Day.

· Tuesday's data is limited to the NHAB Housing Market Index (10).

· Wednesday will see the weekly MBA Mortgage Index (7), housing starts, and building permits (8:30).

· Data continues to flow on Thursday as initial and continuing claims (8:30), and FHFA Housing Price Index (9) are released.

· Data for the week concludes on Friday with existing home sales and leading indicators (10).

On other news....

Currencies

Weekly Analysis

Technical Updates

Briefing's Commentaries

Week in Review: Slipping and Sliding

The stock market began the week on the defensive with the Nasdaq (-0.8%) and S&P 500 (-0.8%) pacing the Monday slide. The Dow (-0.5%) and Russell 2000 (-0.3%) outperformed, but the two indices also spent the bulk of the day in negative territory. Equities opened the trading day with slim gains that evaporated during the first few minutes of the session. The S&P 500 slumped back below its 50-day moving average (2046) at the start and spent the rest of the day well below that level as influential sectors weighed. Most notably, the energy sector (-2.8%) was the weakest performer with crude oil contributing to the pressure after Goldman Sachs lowered its short-term forecast for the commodity. WTI crude ended the pit session on its low, down 4.9% at $46.07/bbl. Meanwhile, the remaining cyclical groups registered slimmer losses, but heavily-weighted financials (-0.9%) and technology (-1.3%) kept the market under pressure throughout the session.

The major averages enjoyed broad-based support at the start of the Tuesday session, but the opposite was true when the trading day ended. The S&P 500 lost 0.3% with eight sectors settling in the red. The final standing masked the fact that the benchmark index was up in excess of 1.0% at the start of the day. The S&P 500 spent the first 90 minutes near its high, but the absence of intraday buying interest opened the door to a retreat that accelerated when the S&P cut through its 50-day moving average (2046/2047). Commodity-related sectors fueled the pullback from highs with energy (-0.7%) and materials (-1.2%) ending the day at the bottom of the barrel. The two groups struggled to keep pace with the market in the early going and their underperformance became more notable during the afternoon retreat.

Equities endured their fourth consecutive decline on Wednesday with the S&P 500 (-0.6%) making an intraday appearance below its 100-day moving average (2,007). The tech-heavy Nasdaq outperformed, but still lost 0.5%. Stocks faced selling pressure from the start after the overnight session failed to alleviate the growth concerns that contributed to the recent weakness. Instead, the concerns grew larger, starting with the World Bank's reduced growth outlook for 2015 (to 3.0% from 3.4%) and 2016 (to 3.3% from 3.5%). The lowered outlook pressured commodities, and especially copper, which remained under pressure throughout the day, ending lower by 4.9% at $2.51/lb after hitting a low near the $2.45/lb level. Crude oil, however, traded in the red during morning action, but rocketed into the pit close, which helped the broader market climb off its intraday low. The energy component spiked 5.7% to $48.55/bbl.

The stock market continued its rough week on Thursday with the S&P 500 (-0.9%) registering its fifth consecutive decline after failing to hold the 100-day moving average (2007). The price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.6%) fared a bit better while the Nasdaq Composite (-1.5%) and Russell 2000 (-1.7%) underperformed. Market participants were greeted by an astounding move in the foreign exchange market. Specifically, the Swiss franc was up as much as 25.0% against the dollar after the Swiss National Bank abandoned the EURCHF 1.20 floor and lowered the benchmark deposit rate to -0.75%. The move was likely taken in anticipation of a QE announcement from the ECB, and the dollar/franc pair was able to narrow its loss to 15.0% (0.8687); however, that was still large enough to resonate with investors who were lulled into a false sense of security by the SNB's pledge to maintain the exchange rate floor. Equity indices began the day with slim gains, but the morning strength faded alongside crude oil, which slid from a session high at $51.00/bbl to $46.57/bbl. The energy component ended the day lower by 4.1%, but that masked the fact that crude fell almost 9.0% from its best level of the day. Furthermore, that pullback was closely correlated with a broad-market slide, which was paced by cyclical sectors.

Next Week In View

Economic Commentaries

Jason's Commentaries

Market Call: FLAT to upside

Date: 24 Feb 2014

9 Jan 2015 - WMA for CT students

2015-01-12T00:41:00.002-08:00

21 Feb 2014 AMC - Market facing resistance with tech lagging

Market Summary

Market Internals

Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

Commentaries

Closing Market Summary: S&P 500 Ends Week Below 50-Day Average
The S&P 500 began the first full week of 2015 with a slide below its 50-day moving average (2045) and found itself fighting that level once again on Friday. The benchmark index settled just below the 50-day average, losing 0.8% to lock in a 0.6% decline for the week while the Nasdaq (-0.7%) outperformed slightly, falling 0.5% for the week.

Friday's affair was a bit of a roller coaster with the first downswing coming in the early morning hours when futures retreated in reaction to a Bloomberg report indicating the European Central Bank remains unsure of a format for its QE program. The news rattled U.S. futures and markets in Europe considering a QE announcement in two weeks was all but priced in.

The early morning slip was followed by a swift recovery of the losses when the December Nonfarm Payrolls report beat expectations (252K; Briefing.com consensus 245K) on the headline level. The resulting rebound rally was short-lived, fading as soon as the cash market opened and, we would contend, as soon as participants finished reading the report.

Specifically, the lack of payroll growth took the shine off what would have been a decent report. Hourly wages declined 0.2% and November growth was slashed in half (to +0.2% from +0.4%). Once the realization that without payroll growth there can be no consumption growth sank in, equities retreated. In addition to pressuring stocks, dimming growth prospects weighed on crude oil ($48.40/bbl, -$0.41) while boosting Treasuries. The benchmark 10-yr yield fell four basis points to 1.97% after bouncing off the 1.95% level.

Cyclical sectors bore the brunt of today's losses with four of six growth-oriented groups ending in-line with or behind the broader market. Notably, the implications stemming from the absence of wage growth kept financials (-1.3%) and consumer discretionary shares (-1.1%) behind the broader market throughout the session.

The financial sector finished at the bottom of the barrel while the discretionary sector ended just above with retailers fueling the weakness. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 95.25, -1.74) lost 1.8%. However, the widespread selling in retail stocks masked the relative strength among homebuilders. The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 26.61, +0.07) gained 0.3%.

Elsewhere among cyclical sectors, industrials (-1.1%) finished among the laggards while energy (-0.8%), materials (-0.5%), and technology (-0.3%) outperformed.

The relative strength of the technology sector prevented the S&P 500 from revisiting its morning low. Several large cap names like Apple (AAPL 112.01, +0.12), Cisco Systems (CSCO 27.79, +0.28), IBM (IBM 159.11, +0.69), and Oracle (ORCL 43.39, -0.02) held their own while chipmakers eked out gains with the PHLX Semiconductor Index adding 0.1%.

Similar to chipmakers, the high-beta biotechnology group spent the day ahead of the broader market. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 313.32, -1.12) shed 0.4%, helping the Nasdaq Composite finish a bit ahead of the broader market.

Although biotechnology was able to underpin the Nasdaq, the group failed to lift the health care sector (-0.8%) ahead of the broader market as large cap components weighed.

Outside of healthcare, the remaining countercyclical groups ended near the broader market with consumer staples, telecom services, and utilities losing between 0.7% and 0.8%.

Today's participation was below average with roughly 713 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data included Nonfarm Payrolls and Wholesale Inventories:

· Nonfarm payrolls increased by 252,000 in December after adding an upwardly revised 353,000 (from 321,000) in November while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 245,000

o The unemployment rate fell to 5.6% in December from 5.8% in November (consensus 5.7%), but that resulted from a large decline in labor force

o Average hourly wages in December contracted 0.2% after increasing a downwardly revised 0.2% (from 0.4%) in November

· Wholesale inventories increased 0.8% in November after increasing an upwardly revised 0.6% (from 0.4%) in October while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.3%

o Durable wholesale inventories increased 0.8% in November, up from a 0.1% increase in October. Large gains in professional equipment (1.3%), machinery (0.9%), and automotive (0.6%) offset declines in lumber (-0.5%) and furniture (-0.3%)

o Nondurable wholesale inventories increased 0.7% in November, down from a 1.5% increase in October. Low oil prices pushed petroleum inventories down 3.7%. That loss was more-than-offset by a 5.7% increase in farm product inventories

Monday's session will be free of economic data.

· Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.5% YTD

· S&P 500 -0.7% YTD

· Nasdaq Composite -0.7% YTD

· Russell 2000 -1.6% YTD

Treasuries

Quite a Week for the Treasury Market

· The first full week of trading for the month of January is done and it was a good week for the Treasury market. Yields fell sharply across the curve.

o 2-yr -11 bps to 0.56%

o 5-yr -16 bps to 1.44%

o 10-yr -14 bps to 1.97%

o 30-yr -13 bps to 2.56%

· Volatility in the stock market, a continued decline in oil prices, festering deflation concerns out of the eurozone, and a startling report that average hourly earnings decreased 0.2% in December provided much of the rationale for the buying interest

· Friday's session was ultimately governed by the recognition that the drop in average hourly earnings should indeed leave the FOMC patient in raising the fed funds rate

o 2-yr yield fell 5 bps to 0.56%

o Meanwhile, the fed funds futures showed a drop in the probability of the first rate hike occurring at the September 2015 meeting from 59% to 52%

· Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings are up just 1.7% versus 2.0% in November. Other key components of the December employment report included the following:

o Nonfarm payrolls increased by 252,000 (Briefing.com consensus 245,000) and payrolls for October and November were revised up by a combined 50,000

o Private sector payrolls increased by 240,000 (Briefing.com consensus 235,000) and payrolls for October and November were revised up by a combined 50,000

o The unemployment rate fell to 5.6% from 5.8% (Briefing.com consensus 5.7%)

o The labor force participation rate fell to 62.7% from 62.9%, which helped to explain the drop in the unemployment rate

· Wholesale Inventories for November increased 0.8% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%), yet wholesale sales fell 0.3%. That pushed up the inventory-to-sales ratio to 1.21 from 1.20

o Briefing.com boosted its Q4 GDP forecast this week to 3.6% from 3.2%, driven by the smaller than expected net export deficit and the jump in wholesale inventories

· Oil prices were volatile on Friday. Down more than 3.0% in morning action, they snapped to attention in the afternoon and settled down 0.9% at $48.36/bbl

· Precious metals prices drew some buying interest, supported by a weaker dollar and the thought that major central banks are going to remain extremely accommodative (and boost accommodation in some cases)

o Gold +0.9% to $1219.20/troy oz.

o Silver +0.3% to $16.44/troy oz.

· U.S. Dollar Index dropped 0.5% as tempered rate hike expectations took a little shine off the greenback

o EUR/USD +0.4% to 1.1842

o USD/JPY -1.0% to 118.60

· 2-10-yr spread held steady at 141 bps

The Week Ahead:

· There is no data on Monday. Atlanta's Lockhart discusses monetary policy (12:40). Treasury will auction $24B 3Y notes.

· Data kicks off for the week on Tuesday with JOLTS -- Job Openings (10) and the Treasury Budget (14). Treasury will hold a $21B 10Y note reopening. Minny's Kocherlakota opines on "Goal-Based Monetary Policy Report" (17).

· Wednesday's data is heavy as the weekly MBA Mortgage Index (7), retail sales, import/export prices (8:30), business inventories (10) and the Fed's Beige Book (14) are due out. Treasury will reopen $13B 30Y bonds. Philly's Plosser gives his economic outlook (9).

· Data continues to flow on Thursday with initial and continuing claims, PPI, Empire Manufacturing (8:30) and Philly Fed (10).

· The week's data concludes on Friday as CPI (8:30), industrial production and capacity utilization (9:15), Michigan Sentiment (9:55) and Net Long Term TIC Flows (16) cross the wires. Minny's Kocherlakota gives his "Goal-Based Monetary Policy Report" (8:50) and St. Louis' Bullard discusses the economy and monetary policy (13:10).

Weekly Analysis

Technical Updates

Briefing's Commentaries

Week in Review: S&P 500 Bouncing Off Technical Levels

The stock market began the first full week of 2015 on a cautious note. The S&P 500 lost 1.8% while the Russell 2000 (-1.3%) outperformed. Stocks began sliding at the sound of the opening bell amid weakness in Europe that was brought on by renewed fears of a potential Greek exit from the eurozone. With the January 25 Greek snap elections fast approaching, voices out of Germany have tried to calm investors, but those calls have fallen on deaf ears so far. Over the weekend, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that a Greek exit from the eurozone would be manageable, but the comments did not stop the euro from falling below the 1.1900 level against the dollar immediately after the foreign exchange market opened on Sunday evening. Interestingly, the dollar rallied against the euro, but surrendered almost 100 pips to the yen (119.60), suggesting a sense of caution was present among foreign exchange traders.

Equity indices ended the Tuesday session in the red with the Russell 2000 (-1.7%) pacing the retreat. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 lost 0.9% with eight sectors registering losses. The stock market held up relatively well through the first hour of action, but the return of some recent concerns pressured cyclical sectors and the broader market into negative territory. Specifically, the S&P 500 reversed from its session high after The Financial Times reported, citing Oxford Economics research, that Syriza party in Greece is on track to win enough votes that would translate into a mandate to push back against austerity policies imposed by the European Union. In addition to hitting U.S. stocks, the news knocked European markets off their highs and set a fire under U.S. Treasuries. The resulting safe-haven flows underpinned Treasuries, sending the benchmark 10-yr yield lower by seven basis points to 1.96% after marking a low just under the 1.89% level.

The major averages rebounded from their recent swoon on Wednesday with the S&P 500 (+1.2%) posting its first gain in six sessions. The benchmark index settled just behind the Nasdaq Composite (+1.3%), while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.2%) and Russell 2000 (+1.2%) ended in-line with the S&P 500. The midweek advance occurred in two stages with the market climbing out of the gate amid upbeat action overseas. The S&P 500 notched its morning high 30 minutes after the opening bell, but returned to its opening level two hours after the start of the session. Equity indices then charged to new highs after Bloomberg reported that German officials are expected to show willingness to restructure Greek debt. The report said that a debt write-off is not being discussed, but repayment terms may be eased. Stocks caught a second wind following the Bloomberg report and spent the remainder of the session near their afternoon highs, all but ignoring the FOMC minutes from the December meeting. The lack of reaction was understandable, considering the document did not introduce anything ‘new' in particular.

The S&P 500 spiked 1.7% on Thursday, continuing its rebound that began on Wednesday when the index found support at its 100-day moving average (2005). The benchmark index surged past its 50-day moving average (2044) on Thursday and returned to unchanged for the year. Equity indices didn't waste any time after the prior day's rebound, extending higher in the futures market in reaction to evening comments made by Chicago Fed President, and more importantly, 2015 FOMC voting member Charles Evans. Presenting at the University of Chicago, Mr. Evans reiterated his belief that due to low inflation, the Fed should not rush to raise rates, adding for good measure that such move would be a "catastrophe." Interestingly, Fed insider Jon Hilsenrath of the Wall Street Journal wrote that the Fed could indeed raise rates soon if it is believed that low yields at the long end of the curve reflect an influx of capital into dollar-denominated assets, which could spark a surge in prices. Mr. Hilsenrath added that this was the view espoused by NY Fed President and this year's voting member William Dudley, who argued a similar situation presented itself in 2000s, leading to the housing bubble. The signs of an impending tug-of-war at the Fed over when to pull away the punchbowl did not stop the stock market from spiking out of the gate and adding to its advance in afternoon action. Meanwhile, Treasuries retreated, sending the 10-yr yield higher by six basis points to 2.01%.

Next Week In View

Jason's Commentaries

Market Call: FLAT to upside

Date: 24 Feb 2014

19 Dec 2014 AMC - Market staged massive rally after oil catalysed drop

2014-12-21T16:56:00.001-08:00

19 Dec 2014 AMC - Market staged massive rally after oil catalysed drop

Market Summary

European Markets Closing Prices

European markets are now closed; stock markets across Europe performed as follows:

· UK's FTSE: + 1.2%

· Germany's DAX: -0.3%

· France's CAC: -0.2%

· Spain's IBEX: -0.3%

· Portugal's PSI: -0.7%

· Italy's MIB Index: -0.4%

· Irish Ovrl Index: 0.0%

· Greece ASE General Index: -1.4%

Before Market Opens

S&P futures vs fair value: +6.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.20.
The S&P 500 futures trade six points above fair value.

Markets rallied across Asia as the Fed-induced enthusiasm on Wall Street traveled across the Pacific. The Bank of Japan kept policy on hold and said inflation could dip to 1.0% into March due to low oil prices.

· Economic data was limited:

o Japan's All Industries Activity Index ticked down 0.1% month-over-month (expected 0.2%; previous 1.4%)

o Hong Kong's current account deficit of HKD8.08 billion swung to a surplus of HKD43.30 billion

o New Zealand's ANZ Business Confidence slipped to 30.4% from 31.5%

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· Japan's Nikkei jumped 2.4% to post its biggest gain since Halloween. Heavyweights Softbank and Fast Retailing provided support, rising 2.4% and 2.3%, respectively.

· Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 1.3% as part of its second consecutive day of buying after hitting seven-month lows on Wednesday. Financials led AIA Group gained 3.4% and Bank of Communications added 2.6%.

· China's Shanghai Composite climbed 1.7% to its best levels since November 2010. Aluminum maker Chalco surged the limit, 10%, after announcing intentions to sell non-core assets.

· India's Sensex climbed 0.9%, gaining for the second day in a row, but struggled to reclaim the 50-day average. Commodity plays were strong as Hindalco Industries jumped 3.2% and Reliance Industries added 2.3%.

Major European indices trade mostly lower with Italy's MIB (-1.3%) showing the largest decline. According to Reuters, the ECB is looking into ways of making weaker eurozone countries bear a larger portion of the risk associated with a sovereign QE program. The same countries would stand to benefit most from asset purchases.

· In economic data:

o Eurozone Current Account surplus narrowed to EUR20.50 billion from EUR32.00 billion (expected surplus of EUR27.40 billion)

o Germany's PPI was unchanged month-over-month (expected -0.2%; previous -0.2%) while the year-over-year reading fell 0.9% (expected -1.2%; previous -1.0%). Separately, GfK Consumer Climate improved to 9.0 from 8.7 (expected 8.8)

o UK's Public Sector Net Borrowing increased to GBP13.41 billion from GBP6.43 billion (expected GBP15.37 billion). Separately, CBI Distributive Trades Survey jumped to 61 from 27 (expected 31)

o French Business Survey held at 99, as expected

o Italy's Industrial New Orders rose 0.1% month-over-month (previous -1.5%) while Wage Inflation ticked up 0.1% month-over-month (prior 0.1%)

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· UK's FTSE is higher by 0.4% with miners in the lead. Antofagasta and Randgold Resources hold gains close to 3.0% apiece. Consumer names lag with Diageo, Next, and Coca-Cola HBC down between 0.7% and 1.6%.

· In France, the CAC is lower by 0.7% with Alstom leading the decline. The stock has surrendered 3.5%. Financials trade in mixed fashion with AXA and Unibail-Rodamco sporting respective gains of 0.4% and 1.0% while Societe Generale trades lower by 2.1%.

· Germany's DAX has given up 0.9%. Influential index components lag with BMW, Deutsche Bank, and Bayer down between 1.1% and 1.7%. Henkel AG outperforms, trading higher by 1.6%.

· Italy's MIB leads to the downside with a 1.3% decline. Financials lag with BMPS, Intesa Sanpaolo, Unicredit, and Mediobanca holding losses between 2.6% and 4.0%.

U.S. Equities

· Futures point to a modest gains at the open

· Early gains will have the S&P 500 threatening all-time highs

· The VIX (16.81) slumped to a one-week low as a result of yesterday's surge in equities

· Today is quadruple witching options expiration

o S&P Futures +2 @ 2062

o Dow Futures +23 @ 17749

o Nasdaq Futures +12 @ 4275

Asia

· Markets rallied across Asia as the Fed induced enthusiasm on Wall Street traveled across the Pacific

· The Bank of Japan kept policy on hold and suggested inflation could dip to 1% into March due to the weakness in oil prices

· Hong Kong's current account deficit swung to a surplus (HKD43.3 bln actual v. -HKD8.08 bln previous)

· Japan's Nikkei (+2.4%) posted its biggest gain since Halloween

· Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+1.3%) saw a second day of buying after hitting seven-month lows on Wednesday

· China's Shanghai Composite (+1.7%) climbed to its best levels since November 2010

· India's Sensex (+0.9%) gained for a second day, but struggled to reclaim the 50 dma

· Australia's ASX (+2.5%) surged to its best close in nine sessions as three days of gains have erased six days of selling

Market Internals

Market Internals -Technical-
The S&P 500 closed up 9 (+0.46%) at 2071, the Nasdaq closed up 17 (+0.36%) at 4765, and the Dow closed up 28 (+0.16%) at 17806. Action came on above average volume (NYSE 2421 mln vs. avg. of 877; NASDAQ 2735 mln vs. avg. of 1822), with advancers outpacing decliners (NYSE 2052/1131, NASDAQ 1437/1335) and new highs outpacing new lows(NYSE 222/22, NASDAQ 132/51).

Relative Strength:
Russia-RSX +8.51%, Eastern Europe-ESR +8.18%, Oil-USO +5.88%, Oil and Gas Exploration-XOP +5.4%, Energy-IYE +4.95%, Columbia Index-GXG +4.52%, Oil Services-OIH +4.23%, Gasoline-UGA +3.48%, BRICs-EEB +2.21%, Egypt-EGPT +1.78%.

Relative Weakness:
Natural Gas-UNG -5.55%, Middle East and Africa-GAF -3.07%, Emerging Markets Small Cap-EWX -2.59%, Junior Gold Miners-GDXJ -2.58%, Vietnam-VNM -2.09%, Poland-EPOL -1.8%, Grains-JJG -1.18%, Thailand-THD -1.14%, Insurance-KIE -1.03%, Regional Banks-KRE -0.95%.

Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

Commentaries

Closing Market Summary: Stocks End Strong Week on Upbeat Note
The stock market capped a strong week with an advance that sent the S&P 500 higher by 0.5% to extend its weekly gain to 3.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.2%) underperformed today, but the price-weighted index still managed to add 3.0% for the week.

After adding more than 88 points in the previous two sessions, the S&P 500 spent the first half of the day near its flat line, but climbed ahead of the close. Despite the sharp midweek surge, buying interest remained in place today with nine of ten sectors ending the day in the green.

The energy sector (+3.1%) finished in the lead and extended its weekly gain to 9.7%, which put the growth-sensitive group well ahead of the remaining sectors. Crude oil contributed to today's rally as the energy component settled higher by 5.4% at $57.10/bbl and continued its advance into the $58.00/bbl area in electronic trade.

Meanwhile, the other commodity-related sector—materials—ended in the second place with a solid gain of 1.2%. Steelmakers contributed to the advance with the Market Vectors Steel ETF (SLX 36.61, +1.05) climbing 3.0%.

Outside of energy and materials, only one other sectors was able to end ahead of the broader market. Industrials (+0.5%) rallied behind their top-weighted component—General Electric (GE 25.62, +0.48)—while transport stocks ended just behind the broader market. The Dow Jones Transportation Average climbed 0.4% with freight carriers pacing the advance.

Elsewhere, the health care sector (+0.4%) slipped behind the market into the close, but biotechnology outperformed. Juno Therapeutics (JUNO 35.00, +11.00) surged 45.8% in its debut, which represented the largest biotech IPO of the year. For its part, the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 317.20, +3.23) rallied 1.0% and helped the Nasdaq Composite end just behind the broader market even as chipmakers lagged.

The PHLX Semiconductor Index shed 0.3% with Xilinx (XLNX 43.00, -0.70) falling 1.6% after Bank of America/Merrill Lynch downgraded the stock to ‘Underperform' from ‘Neutral.' As for the broader technology sector (+0.1%), the top-weighted group was kept behind the broader market by relative weakness in influential components like Apple (AAPL 111.78, -0.87),Intel (INTC 36.37, -0.65), and Visa (V 261.67, -2.49).

Shares of Visa were also partially responsible for the underperformance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. However it wasn't just the top-priced listing that kept the index behind the S&P 500. Nike (NKE 94.84, -2.24) fell 2.3% after the company's below-consensus futures orders growth overshadowed better than expected earnings and revenue. Retail names in general displayed weakness with the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 94.13, -0.68) shedding 0.7%.

Treasuries climbed throughout the day and ended just below their highs. The benchmark 10-yr yield slipped four basis points to 2.17%.

Today's participation was well ahead of average, which was caused by quadruple witching. As a result more than 2.1 billion shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.

Investors did not receive any economic news today and Monday's data will be limited to the Existing Home Sales report (Briefing.com consensus 5.20 million), which will be released at 10:00 ET.

· Nasdaq Composite +14.1% YTD

· S&P 500 +12.0% YTD

· Dow Jones Industrial Average +7.4% YTD

· Russell 2000 +2.7% YTD

Commodities

Closing Commodities: WTI Crude Oil Soaring Over $58/Barrel In Electronic Trade

· WTI crude oil prices continued to soar higher in electronic trade, rising as high as $58.34/barrel

· Jan crude oil finished today's session $2.91 higher at $57.10/barrel.

· Natural gas futures sold off on a warm weather forecast, falling sharply

· Jan nat gas ended $0.16 to $3.47/MMBtu

· Precious metals showed very modest gains today

· Feb gold gained $1.10 to $1196.00/oz, while Mar silver rose $0.10 to $16.03/oz

Metals price action

· Feb gold ended today's session $1.10 higher at $1196/oz

· Mar silver also ended $0.10 higher at $16.03/oz

· Mar copper rose 3 cents to $2.88/lb

Agricultural price action

· Mar Corn closed unchanged at $4.11/bushel

· Jan wheat fell 20 cents to $6.33/bushel

· Jan soybeans fell 6 cents at $10.30/bushel

· Ethanol fell 3 cents to $1.62/gallon

· Sugar #11 fell 0.01 cents to 14.98 cents/gallon

Energy price action

· Jan crude oil rose $2.91/barrel, closing today's pit session at $57.10/barrel

· Natural gas fell 16 cents to $3.47/MMBtu

· RBOB Gasoline rose 2 cents to $1.56/gallon

· Heating oil rose 4 cents to $1.93/gallon

Treasuries

Yields Climb as Fed Signals Patience on Rates: 10Y: +12/32..2.175%..USD/JPY: 119.57..EUR/USD: 1.2224
The Week in Review

· Treasuries lost ground this week as the Federal Reserve signaled it would remain 'patient' as to the course of future rate hikes. Click here to see an intraweek yields chart.

· The Bank of Japan kept policy unchanged and hinted inflation could slow to 1% into March as a result of the drop in oil prices.

· Reports out Friday indicated Europe's periphery could bear the biggest burden of any QE risk should the ECB take that route.

· Russia's ruble saw a volatile five days as the currency plunged to a record low near 79.50 before ending the week little changed near 58.18.

· U.S. economic data was largely disappointing as Empire Manufacturing (-3.6 actual v. 14.0 expected), housing starts (1028K actual v. 1035K expected), building permits (1035K actual v. 1060K expected), CPI (-0.3% actual v. -0.1% expected), and Philly Fed (24.5 actual v. 26.0 expected) all missed the mark.

· Only industrial production (1.3% actual v. 0.7% expected), capacity utilization (80.1% actual v. 79.3% expected), and leading indicators (0.6% actual v. 0.5% expected) topped estimates.

· Up front, the 2Y tacked on +9bps to 0.638%. The yield ended just shy of its highest close since April 2011.

· The 5Y jumped +12bps to 1.654%. The yield finished on the 100 and 200 dma, and is attempting a run at 1.700% resistance.

· The 10Y climbed +9bps to 2.176%. The benchmark yield flirted with the key 2.220%, but was unable to finish the week above the level.

· Outperformance at the long end saw the 2Y tick up just +2bps to 2.774%. The ability to hold 2.700% will be critical for the bear case.

· Little change along the curve saw the 2-10-yr spread hold near 154bps.

The Week Ahead

· Monday's data is limited to existing home sales (10). Treasury will auction $27B 2Y notes.

· Tuesday's data is heavy as durable orders, GDP - Third Estimate (8:30), FHFA Housing Price Index (9), Michigan Sentiment - Final (9:55), personal income and spending, PCE Prices - Core, and new home sales (10) cross the wires. Treasury will hold a $35B 5Y note auction.

· Data concludes for the week on Wednesday with the weekly MBA Mortgage Index (7) and initial and continuing claims (8:30). U.S. equity markets will close at 1pm ET and the U.S. Treasury market will finish at 2pm ET for Christmas Eve. Treasury will auction $29B 7Y notes.

· Markets are closed Thursday in observance of Christmas Day.

· There is no data on Friday.

On other news....

Currencies

Dollar Hits Best Levels Since April 2006: 10Y: +09/32..2.180%..USD/JPY: 119.55..EUR/USD: 1.2226

· The Dollar Index presses session highs near 89.60 and remains on track for its best close since April 2006. Click here to see a daily Dollar Index chart.

· The 200 mma provides a headwind near 89.90.

· EURUSD is -60 pips @ 1.2225 as trade flushes to levels last seen in August 2012. The single currency has come under pressure during today's session after a report surfaced suggesting the weaker countries from the region could shoulder the largest burden if a QE-type program is implemented. Key support in the 1.2000/1.2200 area is guarded by the 200 mma.

· GBPUSD is -45 pips @ 1.5625 as trade continues to test 15-month lows. Sterling was unable to gain traction in overnight trade despite the strongest CBI Realized Sales print in over 25 years, but did manage to reclaim the flat line in early U.S. action. However, the late-morning rally in the greenback pushed the pound back into negative territory. The 1.5600 area is key.

· USDCHF is +40 pips @ .9835 as trade readies for its best close in more than two years. Action has recoupled with the euro after briefly decoupling in response to yesterday's decision by the Swiss National Bank to initiate a negative rate policy. EURCHF was little changed near 1.2030.

· USDJPY is +70 pips @ 119.55. Today's bid has the pair testing resistance in the area, and comes after the Bank of Japan held policy unchanged but warned inflation could slide to 1% into March as a result of the drop in oil prices.

· AUDUSD is -30 pips @ .8130 as trade presses back onto 54-month lows. Support in the .8100 remains under scrutiny.

· USDCAD is +40 pips @ 1.1615 as trade ticks back up towards its best levels since July 2009. The pair drifted little changed into this morning's mixed core CPI (-0.2% MoM actual v. +0.1% expected) and core retail sales (0.2% actual v. 0.2% expected) data before grinding higher over the remainder of the session.

Weekly Analysis

Technical Updates

Briefing's Commentaries

Week in Review: Oil Remains in Focus

The major averages began the new week amid some old concerns. The S&P 500 settled lower by 0.6% while the Nasdaq Composite (-1.0%) underperformed, but most of the attention was directed to crude oil trading pits once again. After plunging nearly 4.0% on Friday and inviting questions about macroeconomic implications of the continued weakness, crude oil enjoyed an overnight rebound before resuming its downtrend. The energy component ended the pit session lower by 3.2% at $55.96/bbl and continued its retreat into the $55.50/bbl area in electronic trade. Similar to oil, European equities and U.S. equity futures rebounded in overnight action, but accelerated their retreat from highs once the U.S. cash market opened. All ten sectors finished the day in negative territory with heavily-weighted financials (-0.9%), health care (-0.9%), and consumer discretionary (-0.6%) keeping the market under pressure.

The stock market endured a volatile session on Tuesday with investors keeping one eye on the oil market and one on the dollar/ruble exchange rate. The Russell 2000 (-0.1%) registered the slimmest decline while the S&P 500 settled lower by 0.9% after failing to hold its 100-day (1988) and 50-day moving averages (2001). On Monday evening, the Central Bank of Russia hiked its key interest rate by 650-basis points to 17.0% with the move aimed at halting the recent freefall in the ruble. The news gave a brief boost to the Russian currency, but the ruble was down more than 18.0% against the dollar in the morning, which invited concerns about potential economic and financial risks stemming from the continued plunge. This sent participants scrambling in search of safe havens, which boosted Treasuries and the yen. Meanwhile in the commodity market, crude oil was down in excess of 2.5% this morning, but the energy component spiked off its low shortly after the start of the pit session. Oil was able to return to its flat line, but could not make a sustained move into the green, ending with a nine-cent loss at $55.87/bbl.

Stocks ended the Wednesday session with solid gains that were paced by the Russell 2000. The small-cap index jumped 3.1% while the S&P 500 settled higher by 2.0% with all ten sectors registering gains. Equities climbed through the first half of action and saw an extension of their rally in the afternoon once the FOMC released its latest policy directive. As expected by some, the Fed removed the "considerable time" language from its policy statement, but that reference was replaced with a call for "patience," which essentially conveyed the same message. Above all, Chair Yellen reiterated that the central bank will remain data-dependent and reserves the right to accelerate, or defer, a rate hike in accordance with what the data are communicating about the progress being made toward the Fed's dual mandate. The policy statement was followed by volatile action in the bond market, but Treasuries slid to lows into the close. The benchmark 10-yr yield spiked eight basis points to 2.14%. As for equities, the energy sector (+4.2%) paced the advance and ended near its high even as crude oil slumped into the close, narrowing its gain to 1.0% at $56.44/bbl.

Equity indices ended the Thursday affair on their highs with the S&P 500 (+2.4%) extending its two-day advance to 88 points. The key averages started the Thursday session on a sharply higher note after equity futures received an early morning boost, which took place after the Swiss National Bank imposed negative deposit rates (-0.25%). The central bank said the move is aimed at lowering the three-month LIBOR below zero and European investors viewed the announcement as a prelude to a sovereign QE program from the European Central Bank. European equities, U.S. futures, and commodities rallied following the news, but crude oil fell victim to renewed selling interest after climbing above the $58.50/bbl level in the early morning. The energy component ended near its worst level of the day, down 4.0% at $54.19/bbl. For its part, the energy sector (+2.1%) displayed relative strength at the start, but was pressured from its high by the intraday weakness in crude. Marathon Oil (MRO) finished ahead of the sector, adding 3.3%, after lowering its 2015 capital, investment, and exploration budget by about 20.0% from this year's levels due to the recent plunge in the price of crude.

Next Week In View

Economic Commentaries

Economic summary: No US data today; Evans and Lacker to speak later today; Existing home sales Monday at 10:00
Upcoming Economic Data:

· November Existing Home Sales due out Monday at 10:00 (October was 5.26 M )

Upcoming Fed/Treasury Events:

· Chicago Fed President Charlie Evans (not a voting FOMC member in 2014, dovish) to speak tomorrow at 10:00

· Richmond Fed President Jeff Lacker (not a voting FOMC member in 2014, hawkish) to speak tomorrow at 12:30

Other International Events of interest

· The Bank of Japan kept policy on hold and suggested inflation could dip to 1% into March due to the weakness in oil prices

· Reports out this morning indicate the most troubled countries may be forced to shoulder the heaviest burden of QE risk

· Germany's PPI was unchanged month-over-month (expected -0.2%; previous -0.2%) while the year-over-year reading fell 0.9% (expected -1.2%; previous -1.0%). Separately, GfK Consumer Climate improved to 9.0 from 8.7 (expected 8.8)

Jason's Commentaries

Towards the last few weeks in the market, the market has been very volatile, spiked mainly by the sudden drop in oil prices which caused macroeconomics concerns over the sustainability of profits in oil producing nations. The OPEC did not want to do anything in response to the drop in oil prices which could possibly cause some negative GDP in some nations. Russia was one of the affected ones which it has to hike its interest rate to salvage the Ruble. However, the market is not taking that seriously. Now Russia might have to seek China’s help stabilize its currency. The drop in Ruble also caused the Swiss bank to impose negative interest rates as the Russians are flooding swiss banks with cash. To maintain the value of the Swiss Franc, I believe it’s actually quite a fast move to prevent a fast surge in Swiss Franc value.

With all these issues happening, the market decided to rally for the past few sessions which push the market back to its high once again as crude oil prices stabilized at $55 region. Volumes remained very healthy and no doubt the Energy companies are the leading ones so far. However, there remains a good possibility that it could be a dead cat bounce. Nonetheless, we’re still have the Santa Claus rally!

Market Call: DOWN

Date: 22 Dec 2014

10 Dec 2014 AMC -Market ended in the sea of red as Ol hits new low of $60.43

2014-12-11T03:04:00.002-08:00

10 Dec 2014 AMC -Market ended in the sea of red as Ol hits new low of $60.43

Market Summary

European Markets Closing Prices

European markets are now closed; stock markets across Europe performed as follows:

· UK's FTSE: -0.5%

· Germany's DAX: + 0.1%

· France's CAC: -0.8%

· Spain's IBEX: -0.5%

· Portugal's PSI: -1.9%

· Italy's MIB Index: -0.9%

· Irish Ovrl Index: -0.4%

· Greece ASE General Index: -1.0%

Before Market Opens

S&P futures vs fair value: -5.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.80.
The S&P 500 futures trade six points below fair value.

The major Asian bourses ended mixed. Japan's 10-yr yield dipped below the 0.40% threshold for the first time ever after the BSI Manufacturing Index (8.1; expected 13.1) was the latest number to fall short of estimates.

· In economic data:

o China's CPI declined 0.2% month-over-month (expected 0.1%; previous 0.0%) while the year-over-year reading rose 1.4% (consensus 1.6%; last 1.6%). Also of note, PPI fell 2.7% year-over-year (consensus -2.4%; previous -2.2%)

o Japan's Household Confidence fell to 37.7 from 38.9 (expected 39.6) while Corporate Goods Price Index declined to 2.7% year-over-year from 2.9% (expected 2.6%)

o South Korea's Unemployment Rate ticked down to 3.4% from 3.5% (consensus 3.5%)

o Australia's Home Loans rose 0.3% month-over-month (expected 0.2%; last -0.4%) while Westpac Consumer Sentiment came in at -5.7% (previous 1.9%)

------

· Japan's Nikkei saw a third day of selling and fell 2.3%. The strong yen weighed on exporters as Canon fell 2.7% and Toyota Motor sank 3.0%.

· Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.2% to find support at the 200-day average. Bargain hunters emerged in casino-related names as Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China rallied 3.2% and 1.1%, respectively.

· China's Shanghai Composite jumped 2.9% to halve yesterday's loss. Real estate developers were strong with Poly Real Estate surging 6.1%.

· India's Sensex added 0.1% for its first gain in four days. Pharma provided support as Cipla added 1.5% and Dr. Reddy's Laboratories tacked on 1.4%.

Major European indices have slipped from their highs with Spain's IBEX (-0.1%) dipping into the red. Elsewhere, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney discussed the expected rate path once again, saying rate hikes will be gradual and limited. Mr. Carney also said inflation is likely to dip below 1.0%

· Economic data was limited:

o UK's trade deficit narrowed to GBP9.62 billion from GBP10.51 billion (expected deficit of GBP9.53 billion)

o French Industrial Production fell 0.8% month-over-month (expected 0.2%; prior 0.0%) while Non-Farm Payrolls declined 0.3% quarter-over-quarter (consensus -0.2%; last -0.2%)

------

· UK's FTSE hovers just above its flat line. Energy-related names trade in mixed fashion with Tullow Oil up 3.7% while BG Group, Petrofac, and Royal Dutch Shell are down between 1.3% and 1.6%.

· France's CAC is higher by 0.3% with Vinci in the lead. The engineering company has spiked 4.5%. Financials lag with BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, and Societe Generale down between 0.4% and 1.1%.

· In Germany, the DAX trades up 0.7%. Infineon Technologies leads with a solid gain of 1.6% while financials Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank trade lower by 0.7% and 1.5%, respectively.

· Spain's IBEX is lower by 0.1% after dipping into the red in recent action. Banco Sabadell, Banco Popular, and Caixabank are down between 0.8% and 2.0%.

U.S. Equities

· Equity futures point to a modest drop at the open

· MBA Mortgage Index (+7.3% actual v. -7.3% expected)

o S&P Futures -4 @ 2053

o Dow Futures -34 @ 17,746

o Nasdaq Futures -3 @ 4288

Asia

· The major Asian bourses ended mixed

· Japan's BSI Manufacturing Index (8.1 actual v. 13.1 expected, 12.7 previous) was the latest number to fall short of estimates

· China's CPI (1.4% YoY actual v. 1.6% YoY expected) and PPI (-2.7% YoY actual v. -2.3% YoY expected) both posted cooler than expected readings

· Australian data was mixed as Westpac Consumer Sentiment fell to -5.7% (+1.9% previous) and home loans climbed 0.3% MoM (0.1% MoM expected)

· Japan's Nikkei (-2.3%) saw a third day of selling

· Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+0.2%) found support at the 200 dma

· China's Shanghai Composite (+2.9%) halved yesterday's losses

· India's Sensex (+0.1%) gained for the first time in four days

· Australia's ASX (-0.5%) neared two-month lows

Market Internals

Market Internals -Technical-
The Nasdaq closed down 82 (-1.73%) at 4684, the S&P 500 closed down 34 (-1.64%) at 2026, and the Dow closed down 268 (-1.51%) at 17533. Action came on mixed volume (NYSE 893 mln vs. avg. of 796; NASDAQ 1709 mln vs. avg. of 1801), with decliners outpacing advancers (NYSE 572/2638, NASDAQ 496/2269) and new lows outpacing new highs (NYSE 110/267, NASDAQ 88/123).

Relative Strength:
Volatility-VXX +10.53%, Natural Gas-UNG +1.78%, Japanese Yen-FXY +1.34%, New Zealand-ENZL +1.25%, 20+ Year Treasuries-TLT +0.73%, Singapore-EWS +0.68%, Sugar-SGG +0.58%, Swiss Franc-FXF +0.51%, Australian Dollar-FXA +0.37%, Silver-SLV +0.31%.

Relative Weakness:
Columbia Index-GXG -5.42%, Oil and Gas Exploration-XOP -4.79%, Oil-USO -3.8%, Gasoline-UGA -3.68%, MLP Index-AMJ -3.63%, Oil Services-OIH -3.52%, Mexico-EWW -3.22%, Latin America 40-ILF -3.02%, Canada-EWC -2.65%, Greece-GREK -2.22%.

Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

Briefing's Commentaries

Closing Market Summary: Energy Sector Leads Stocks Lower
The major averages ended the Wednesday session on a broadly lower note. The S&P 500 lost 1.6% with all ten sectors ending in the red while the Russell 2000 (-2.1%) underperformed.

For the second day in a row, the major averages slumped at the start, but unlike yesterday, the key indices could not stage a comeback with a big drop in the energy sector (-3.1%) keeping the market under pressure throughout the session.

The energy sector widened its fourth-quarter loss to 15.9% with crude oil settling lower by 4.5% at $60.92/bbl. Today's slide took place after China reported its lowest year-over-year growth in CPI (1.4%) and OPEC cut its demand forecast. In addition, crude stockpiles showed an unexpected build. Following today's drop, the energy component is down 33.4% since the end of the third quarter.

However, the recent slump among commodities has not been isolated to just oil, but the weakness factored in more prominently today as misgivings about the pace of global economic growth and the potential spillover effect for the U.S. fueled a sense that the market has come too far too fast. Accordingly, today's selling interest hit far and wide with nine sectors losing more than 1.0%.

Similar to energy, the materials sector (-2.1%) spent the day at the bottom of the leaderboard. Growth concerns weighed on steelmakers, which sent Market Vectors Steel ETF (SLX 36.28, -1.29) lower by 3.4%.

Elsewhere, the industrial sector (-1.9%) slumped under the weight of Boeing (BA 124.64, -5.02). The Dow component lost 3.9% and fell below its 50-, 100-, and 200-day averages. The underperformance of the influential sector component masked the relative strength among airlines after International Air Transport Association's projection that the airline industry's collective global net profit after tax will increase to $25.00 billion in 2015 from an estimated $19.00 billion in 2014. Jetblue Airways (JBLU 15.15, +0.11), Southwest Airlines (LUV 41.48, +0.75), and United Continental (UAL 63.69, +1.17) jumped between 0.7% and 1.9%, helping the Dow Jones Transportation Average (-1.4%) finish a little ahead of the market.

Also of note, the consumer discretionary sector (-1.4%) settled ahead of the market, but that was no thanks to Yum! Brands (YUM 70.53, -4.69). The stock tumbled 6.2% after issuing disappointing guidance. In a way, the guidance from Yum! echoed global growth concerns. The company said that sales at its China division have not recovered from bad publicity over the summer as fast as the company had expected.

Growth concerns were also visible in the foreign exchange market with the Dollar Index (88.25, -0.45) recording its third consecutive decline. Notably, the retreat in the dollar gave a big boost to the yen and pressured the dollar/yen pair below yesterday's low (118.00).

Safe haven demand boosted Treasuries with the 10-yr yield falling six basis points to 2.16%.

The selloff invited above-average participation with more than 890 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data was limited to the MBA Mortgage Index and the Treasury Budget:

· The weekly MBA Mortgage Index spiked 7.3% to follow last week's 7.3% decline

· The Treasury budget showed a deficit of $56.80 billion in November, down from a deficit of $135.2 billion in November 2013. The Treasury data are not seasonally adjusted, and the November data cannot be compared to the $121.7 billion deficit in October

o The Briefing.com Consensus expected a budget deficit of $59.0 billion

o The November deficit was slightly smaller than the CBO's forecast of a $59.0 billion deficit

Tomorrow, weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 295K), November Retail Sales (consensus 0.4%), and November Import/Export prices will be reported at 8:30 ET while the Business Inventories report for October (consensus 0.2%) will be released at 10:00 ET.

· Nasdaq Composite +12.2% YTD

· S&P 500 +9.6% YTD

· Dow Jones Industrial Average +5.8% YTD

· Russell 2000 UNCH YTD

Commodities

Closing Commodities: Oil Falls Below $61/Barrel

· Oil was the big story again today

· Prices collapsed following bearish OPEC, API and now EIA data

· Oil prices dropped today following news that OPEC released its monthly oil report for December and said that global demand for oil in 2015 will be weaker than expected due to the U.S. shale oil boom and due to weaker demand

· The 12-member cartel reduced its 2015 oil demand forecast by 280,000 barrels to 28.92 million barrels.The report comes out after OPEC decided to not cut its output last month, which has been already weighing on oil prices

· Separately, after the close yesterday, the American Petroleum Institute reported that U.S. oil stockpiles rose by 4.4 million barrels yesterday, which was bearish since analysts were expecting a draw of 2.2 million barrels

· Then the EIA reported its weekly oil storage data, which was also negative for oil prices

· Minutes ago, OPEC annonced that it may hold an emergency meeting in Q1 of 2015, according to reports out earlier

· Jan crude oil closed out today's session down $2.85 to $60.97/barrel

· Jan nat gas rose 5 cents to $3.70/MMBtu

· Metals ended mixed.

· Feb gold lost $2.90 to $1229.40/oz, while Mar silver rose 4 cents to $17.18/oz

· Mar copper fell 4 cents to $2.89/lb

Metals price action

· Gold ended today's session $2.90 lower at $1229.40/oz

· Silver rose $0.04 to $17.18/oz

· Copper fell 4 cents to $2.89/lb

Agricultural price action

· Mar Corn closed 1 cent lower at $3.94/bushel

· Jan wheat fell 4 cents to $5.82/bushel

· Jan soybeans fell 17 cents at $10.32/bushel

· Ethanol closed 1 cent higher at $1.95/gallon

· Sugar #11 rose 0.05 cents to 15.47 cents/gallon

Energy price action

· Crude oil fell $2.85 today, closing today's pit session at $60.97/barrel

· Natural gas rose 5 cents to $3.70/MMBtu

· RBOB Gasoline fell 7 cents to $1.65/gallon

· Heating oil fell 2 cents to $2.06/gallon

Treasuries

10Y Settles at 2.169%, Lowest Since October: 10Y: +14/32..2.168%..USD/JPY: 118.23..EUR/USD: 1.2433

· Treasuries finished on their highs as an afternoon scramble for safety developed in response to the heavy selling of equities. Click here to see an intraday yields chart.

· The complex held small gains in to the cash open and put in its best levels of the morning as equities opened up weak.

· Trade chopped around in a tight range into this afternoon's solid $21B 10Y note reopening. The reopening drew 2.214% (WI 2.213%) and a 2.97x bid/cover. Indirect bids (53.8%) provided support as directs (6.9%) were light. Primary dealers were left with 39.3% of the supply.

· Some light selling developed as an initial response to the auction, but buyers quickly emerged as equity markets rolled over in afternoon trade.

· Helping the cause was a report the five largest Chinese banks will hike their deposit rate by 20%.

· Up front, the 2Y fell -4.4bps to 0.564%. Support in the 0.550% region will be in focus over the coming days.

· Today's aggressive bid had the biggest impact on the belly as the 5Y slid -5.7bps to 1.569%. The yield presses back below the 50 dma and closed at a one-week low.

· The 10Y shed -5.1bps to 2.169%. The benchmark yield broke below key support in the 2.200% region before settling at a two-month low.

· At the long end, the 30Y eased -4bps to 2.835%. The yield on the long bond closed at its lowest level since May 2013 and is now down -17bps over the past week.

· An unchanged curve saw the 2-10-yr spread hold @ 160.5bps.

· Precious metals slipped as gold fell -$4 to $1228 and silver shed -$0.02 to @ $17.11.

· Data: Initial and continuing claims, retail sales, import/export prices (8:30), and business inventories (10).

· Auction: $13B 30Y bond reopening.

On other news....

Currencies

Dollar Sees Third Day of Selling: 10Y: +08/32..2.187%..USD/JPY: 118.24..EUR/USD: 1.2435

· The Dollar Index trades on session lows, pressing the 88.25 region. Click here to see a daily Dollar Index chart.

· Today marks a third day of selling in the greenback, and has action sliding into a test of support in the 87.50/88.00 area.

· EURUSD is +65 pips @ 1.2440 as trade continues its climb off key support in the 1.2300 region. The single currency will be in focus tomorrow morning as the results from the second round of TLTROs are scheduled for release.

· GBPUSD is +45 pips @ 1.5705 as buying persists for a third session. Sterling has seen support following some initial selling that developed in response to the slightly larger than expected trade deficit. Support in the 1.5600 area has held up for past month.

· USDCHF is -40 pips @ .9670 as trade continues to track the euro. Tomorrow's Swiss National Bank policy decision is likely to produce more commentary from Chairman Thomas Jordan indicating the central bank will defend its EURCHF floor with the utmost importance.

· USDJPY is -140 pips @ 118.30 as action presses to its worst levels of the session. Today's slide has the pair revisiting near-term support in the 118.00 area that survived its first test early yesterday. That level will be in focus into tonight's core machinery orders and Tertiary Industry Activity data.

· AUDUSD is flat @ .8290 as the pair fights to end its nine-day streak without gains. The recent lows near .8250 will be under the microscope as MI Inflation Expectations and Australian jobs data cross the wires tonight. The pair could see some additional volatility as the neighboring Reserve Bank of New Zealand opines this afternoon.

· USDCAD is +50 pips @ 1.1495. The pair has found buying following comments from the Bank of Canada suggesting high home prices remain the biggest headwind to the economy and as oil threatens to break below the $60 per barrel mark. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz speaks in New York ahead of tomorrow's New Home Price Index release.

Next Week In View

Economic Commentaries

Economic Summary: MBA mortgage aps rise 7.3%; retail sales tomorrow at 8:30
Economic Data Summary:

· Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications 7.3% vs Briefing.com consensus of ; Last Week was -7.3%

Upcoming Economic Data:

· November Treasury Budget due out Wednesday at 14:00 (Briefing.com consensus of -$59.0 bln; October was -$135.2 bln)

· Weekly Initial Claims due out Thursday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus of 295K; Last Week was 297K)

· Weekly Continuing Claims due out Thursday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus of 2.350 M ; Last Week was 2.362 M )

· November Retail Sales due out Thursday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus of 0.4%; October was 0.3%)

· November Retail Sales Ex-Auto due out Thursday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus of 0.2%; October was 0.3%)

· November Export Prices Ex-Ag due out Thursday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus of ; October was -0.9%)

· November Import Prices Ex-Oil due out Thursday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus of ; October was -0.2%)

· October Business Inventories due out Thursday at 10:00 (Briefing.com consensus of 0.2%; September was 0.3%)

Upcoming Fed/Treasury Events:

· The Treasury will issue new debt this week. The results will be issued at 13:00

o Wednesday: $21 bln 10 year notes

o Thursday: $13 bln 30 year bonds

Jason's Commentaries

First is the energy stocks, then the euro stocks. It seems that the bearishness is starting to spread. If the drop of oil further, the energy stocks continued dropped which caused a drag in the whole market. It's been some time since the market dropped more than 1.5% already. VIX spiked as well. Materials became the second biggest laggard while the internals was totally convergent with the market. Volumes were at 912m shares traded on the NYSE. I suppose the market is likely to cover slightly.

Market Call: UP

Date: 11 Dec 2014

9 Dec 2014 AMC -Market managed to shrug off drag by the European market

2014-12-10T06:04:00.002-08:00

9 Dec 2014 AMC -Market managed to shrug off drag by the European market

Market Summary

European Markets Closing Prices

European markets are now closed; stock markets across Europe performed as follows:

· UK's FTSE: -2.1%

· Germany's DAX: -2.2%

· France's CAC: -2.6%

· Spain's IBEX: -3.2%

· Portugal's PSI: -2.5%

· Italy's MIB Index: -2.8%

· Irish Ovrl Index: -2.4%

· Greece ASE General Index: -12.8%

Before Market Opens

S&P futures vs fair value: -17.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -37.00.
The S&P 500 futures trade 18 points below fair value.

Markets were pressured across much of Asia.

· Economic data was limited:

o Japan's Machine Tool Orders spiked 36.6% year-over-year (prior 30.8%)

o Australia's NAB Business Confidence fell to 1 from 5 while NAB Business Survey declined to 5 from 13

o New Zealand's Electronic Card Retail Sales slipped 0.1% month-over-month (expected 0.2%; previous 1.0%)

------

· Japan's Nikkei lost 0.7% after pulling back from seven-year highs. The stronger yen weighed on exporters as Sony lost 4.0% and Panasonic gave up 3.2%.

· Hong Kong's Hang Seng tumbled 2.3% back onto the 200-day average. Financials saw significant selling pressure as China Construction Bank tumbled 5.5% to pace the sector's decline.

· China's Shanghai Composite plunged 5.4% to post its steepest slide in over five years after soaring 25.0% over the past month. Heavyweight PetroChina plunged 8.0% and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China lost 9.3%.

· India's Sensex fell 1.2% for a fourth-straight day and closed at its worst level since Halloween. Commodity-linked names were a drag as Sesa Sterlite fell 5.2% and ONGC lost 4.4%.

Major European indices trade lower across the board after Germany's November imports declined at the fastest pace in almost two years. Also of note, Greece's benchmark index is down more than 10.0% after Prime Minister Antonis Samaras called for a presidential election to replace outgoing president Karolos Papoulias. Early indications suggest the election could put the Coalition of the Radical Left (Syriza) in power.

· Participants received several data points:

o Germany's trade surplus expanded to EUR20.60 billion from EUR18.60 billion (expected EUR19.20 billion) as exports fell 0.5% (consensus -1.6%; last 5.5%) and imports declined 3.1% (expected -1.5%; previous 5.2%)

o UK's Industrial Production ticked down 0.1% month-over-month (expected 0.2%; last 0.7%) while Manufacturing Production fell 0.7% month-over-month (consensus 0.2%; last 0.6%)

o French trade deficit narrowed to EUR4.60 billion from EUR4.70 billion (expected deficit of EUR4.50 billion)

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· Germany's DAX is lower by 1.5% with Deutsche Lufthansa leading the retreat with a 2.5% decline. Financials also lag notably with Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank both down near 2.0%.

· UK's FTSE trades down 1.6% with Tesco diving more than 10.0% in reaction to a profit warning. Peer WM Morrison Supermarkets is lower by 5.0%. On the upside, G4S and Randgold Resources hold respective gains of 2.8% and 2.3%.

· In France, the CAC has given up 1.7% amid broad weakness. Carrefour trades down 3.1% while Credit Agricole and Societe Generale hold respective losses of 3.4% and 3.1%.

· Spain's IBEX is down 2.1% with all 35 components in the red. FCC leads the decline with a 7.9% loss while Bankia and Banco Popular are down 3.0% and 3.9%, respectively.

U.S. Equities

· Equity futures suggest a heavy open

· Markets across the globe are under pressure as China's Shanghai Composite tumbled 5.4% and Greece's ASE is -11%

· The VIX (14.21) is likely to open at a one-month high

o S&P Futures -17 @ 2042

o Dow Futures -131 @ 17720

o Nasdaq Futures -37 @ 4242

Asia

· Markets were pressured across much of Asia

· Australia's NAB Business Confidence dipped to 1 (5 previous)

· Japan's Nikkei (-0.7%) pulled back from seven-year highs

· Hong Kong's Hang Seng (-2.3%) tumbled back onto the 200 dma

· China's Shanghai Composite (-5.4%) posted its steepest slide in over five years as investors rushed for the exits after a rally over the past 13 sessions tacked on nearly 25%

· India's Sensex (-1.2%) fell for a fourth-straight day and closed at its worst level since Halloween

· Australia's ASX (-1.7%) was rejected by the 50 dma

Market Internals

Market Internals -Technical-
The Nasdaq closed up 26 (+0.54%) at 4766, the S&P 500 closed down 1 (-0.02%) at 2060, and the Dow closed down 51 (-0.29%) at 17801. Action came on slightly above average volume (NYSE 814 mln vs. avg. of 797; NASDAQ 1788 mln vs. avg. of 1806), with advancers outpacing decliners (NYSE 1907/1290, NASDAQ 1889/882) and new lows outpacing new highs (NYSE 111/256, NASDAQ 90/170).

Relative Strength:
Oil and Gas Exploration-XOP +4.85%, Gold Miners-GDX +4.66%, Silver-SLV +3.88%, Biotechnology-XBI +2.89%, Metals and Mining-XME +2.63%, Peru-EPU +1.06%, Singapore-EWS +1%, Japanese Yen-FXY +0.88%, Israel-EIS +0.86%, New Zealand-ENZL +0.76%.

Relative Weakness:
Greece-GREK -11.92%, China 25 Index-FXI -3.33%, Vietnam-VNM -2.78%, India-INP -1.98%, Wind Energy-FAN -1.74%, Spain-EWP -1.52%, Telecommunications-IYZ -1.36%, Pharmaceuticals-PPH -1.1%, Lithium-LIT -0.79%, Insurance-KIE -0.78%.

Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

Briefing's Commentaries

Closing Market Summary: Stocks End Mixed Despite Opening Plunge
The major averages ended the Tuesday session on a mixed note after starting the day with sharp losses. The Russell 2000 and Nasdaq Composite paced the rebound, climbing 1.7% and 0.5%, respectively, while the S&P 500 settled just below its flat line. The Dow shed 0.3% and was the weakest performer among the key indices.

Equity futures were pressured this morning after the overnight session featured a 5.4% plunge in China's Shanghai Composite, which endured its biggest one-day decline since 2009. The dive occurred after the index soared 25.0% in a month and was catalyzed by the People's Bank of China taking measures to tighten liquidity conditions. The central bank fixed the USDCNY exchange rate at its highest level since July and imposed stricter collateral rules on short-term loans.

The cautious sentiment carried over to the European session with Greece's ASE Index sinking 12.8% while the country's 10-yr yield surged 91 basis points to 7.95% after Prime Minister Antonis Samaras called for a presidential election. This took place right after the country was granted a two-month extension to meet its bailout requirements and the early indications suggest the election could put the Coalition of the Radical Left (Syriza) in power, which rattled markets. Adding insult to injury, Germany reported a 3.1% decline in November imports, which was the biggest drop in almost two years.

Despite the global weakness, U.S. equities did not spend much time near their early lows. In fact, the Russell 2000, which led the rebound, marked its low five minutes into the session and never looked back. Since most stocks in that arena are domestically-oriented, they benefited from the consideration that the difficulties for Greece and China make the U.S. economy (and market) look comparatively better. It didn't hurt either that the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for November hit its highest level (98.1) since February 2007.

The strength among small caps emboldened investors to delve into some other high-beta areas like biotechnology and chipmakers. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 314.92, +1.13) gained 0.4%, but the health care sector (-0.4%) underperformed throughout the session.

However, biotechnology did help the Nasdaq make it into the green while chipmakers climbed off their opening lows with the PHLX Semiconductor Index returning to its flat line. Large cap components of the technology sector (+0.5%) also displayed some strength with Apple (AAPL 114.13, +1.73), Google (GOOGL 536.11, +5.38), and Oracle (ORCL 41.87, +0.50) adding between 1.0% and 1.5%.

Outside of technology, energy (+0.9%), materials (+0.3%), and industrials (+0.1%) were the only other advancers on the cyclical side. The energy sector ended in the lead while crude oil jumped 1.1% to $63.82/bbl.

Although biotechnology and chipmakers contributed to the rebound, another high-beta group—transport stocks—did not play along. The Dow Jones Transportation Average (-0.6%) ended in the middle of its intraday range with airlines showing broad weakness after Spirit Airlines (SAVE 73.77, -10.70) issued disappointing guidance in reaction to increased promotional activity among its peers. Shares of SAVE plunged 12.7% while DJTA components Delta Air Lines (DAL 46.33, -1.01) and United Continental (UAL 62.52, -1.73) lost 2.1% and 2.7%, respectively.

Treasuries rallied in the morning, but surrendered a portion of their gains into the close. The 10-yr yield fell four basis points to 2.22%.

Also of note, the Dollar Index (88.73, -0.31) posted its second consecutive decline with the dollar giving ground to the yen. The dollar/yen pair was down as much as 300 pips and tested the 118.00 level before recovering to 119.60 into the afternoon.

Participation was a bit ahead of average with more than 810 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data was limited to wholesale inventories and JOLTS:

· Wholesale inventories increased 0.4% for a second consecutive month in October after an upward revision to the September data (from 0.3%) while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.2%

o Durable inventory levels were flat in October after increasing 0.7% in September with increases in hardware (1.6%) and machinery (0.4%) offsetting declines in autos (-1.4%) and professional equipment (-0.7%)

o Nondurable inventories increased 1.2% in October after being unchanged in September with petroleum inventories falling 1.9%, which was more than offset by gains in farm products (3.6%), drugs (3.2%), and groceries (1.1%)

· The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for October indicated job opening increased to 4.834 million from 4.685 million

Tomorrow, the weekly MBA Mortgage Index will be released at 7:00 ET while the Treasury Budget for November will cross at 14:00 ET (Briefing.com consensus -$59.00 billion).

· Nasdaq Composite +14.1% YTD

· S&P 500 +11.4% YTD

· Dow Jones Industrial Average +7.4% YTD

· Russell 2000 +2.0% YTD

Commodities

Closing Commodities: Metals Close Strong On Dollar Weakness

· Metals showed some strong gains today following weakness in the dollar index

· Metals closed today's session with strong gains led by silver, which rose 5.3% to $17.14/ox

· Feb gold meanwhile gained 3.1% to $1232.30/oz

· WTI crude oil posted a modest gain today, ending $0.72 higher at $63.82/barrel

· Natural gas gained 5 cents to $3.65/MMBtu

Metals price action

· Gold ended today's session $37.30 higher (or +3.1%) at $1232.30/oz

· Silver rose $0.86 (or +5.3%) to $17.14/oz

· Copper rose 4 cents to $2.93/lb

Agricultural price action

· Corn closed 5 cents higher at $3.95/bushel

· Wheat fell 7 cents to $5.86/bushel

· Soybeans fell 1 cents at $10.49/bushel

· Ethanol closed unchanged at $1.71/gallon

· Sugar #11 rose 0.12 cents to 15.42 cents/gallon

Energy price action

· Crude oil rose $0.72 today, closing today's pit session at $63.82/barrel

· Natural gas rose 5 cents to $3.65/MMBtu

· RBOB Gasoline rose 1 cent to $1.72/gallon

· Heating oil rose 2 cents to $2.08/gallon

Treasuries

30Y Settles at 2.875%, Lowest Since May 2013: 10Y: +11/32..2.216%..USD/JPY: 119.70..EUR/USD: 1.2367

· Treasuries ended with modest gains, putting in the fourth advance in five sessions. Click here to see an intraday yields chart.

· The complex drifted little changed into the cash open despite the weakness in global equity markets, but caught a bid as traders began to settle into their desks and Greece plunged further into chaos.

· Steady buying persisted into the equity open with trade pressing to its best levels of the day shortly after the larger than anticipated build in wholesale inventories (+0.4% actual v. +0.2% expected).

· Action held near the highs into this afternoon's average $25B 3Y note auction. The auction drew 1.066% and a 3.24x bid/cover. A strong indirect bid (42.2%) provided support as directs (10.1%) were a bit light. Primary dealers ended up with just 47.7% of the supply.

· Post-auction selling ran yields off the lows, but they were unable to reclaim their respective breakeven lines.

· Up front, the 2Y eased -2.4bps to 0.608%. The yield continues to ease off Friday's close of 0.640%, which was the highest since April 2011.

· In the belly, the 5Y slid -3.8bps to 1.626%. Today's bid pushed action back below both the 50 and 100 dma.

· The 10Y fell -3.7bps to 2.220%. The benchmark yield probed the important 2.200% mark, but was unable to put in a close below the level.

· Buying at the long end dropped the 30Y -2.6bps to 2.875%. The yield on the long bond posted its lowest close since May 2013.

· A flatter curve persisted as the 2-10-yr spread narrowed to 161bps.

· Precious metals saw strong gains as gold climbed $34 to $1229 and silver surged $0.80 to $17.08.

· Data: Initial and continuing claims, retail sales, import/export prices (8:30), and business inventories (10).

· Auction: $21B 10Y note reopening.

On other news....

Currencies

Dollar Recoups Some Losses: 10Y: +09/32..2.226%..USD/JPY: 119.45..EUR/USD: 1.2376

· The Dollar Index nears its best levels of U.S. trade as action looks to retake the 88.65 level. Click here to see a daily Dollar Index chart.

· The greenback saw early selling probe the 88.20 level before buying emerged in defense of support.

· EURUSD is +65 pips @ 1.2380 as trade tests its lowest levels since this morning. The euro neared the 1.2450 region after the larger than expected build in U.S. wholesale inventories, but has been batted off those highs following dovish commentary from ECB board member Peter Praet suggesting the central bank would have cut rates at the last meeting if it had not already been on the zero bound. The recent lows near 1.2300 remain in focus. Eurozone data scheduled for tomorrow is limited to French industrial production.

· GBPUSD is +10 pips @ 1.5660 after giving up most of its early gains. Sterling ticked to its best levels of the day near 1.5715 after NIESR GDP Estimate held at 0.7%, but has slipped over the remainder of the session. Support in the 1.5600 region remains under close watch. Britain's trade balance will be released tomorrow.

· USDCHF is -50 pips @ .9710 after trimming its early losses. Trade tested the .9650 support area before weakness in the euro provoked a rebound.

· USDJPY is -120 pips @ 119.45 as money moves into the yen amid the weakness in global equity markets. Aggressive selling provided a test of 118.00 support, but action has seen a strong rebound off the level as the major bourses fight to regain the flat line. Japan's BSI Manufacturing Index will cross the wires this evening.

· AUDUSD is +15 pips @ .8305 as the bulls look to halt the losing streak at eight days. The hard currency appeared to be on its way to a ninth straight loss following the weakness in China, but buyers stepped in to defend support in the .8200 area that corresponds with the 2009/2010 lows. Australia's Westpac Consumer Sentiment and home loans are due out tonight. Chinese data set for tonight includes CPI and PPI.

· USDCAD is -40 pips @ 1.1435 as action slips off its best levels since July 2009. Early strength made for a test of 1.1500 before sellers emerged at the psychological hurdle.

Next Week In View

Economic Commentaries

Economic Summary: Wholesale inventories top estimates
Economic Data Summary:

· October Wholesale Inventories 0.4% vs Briefing.com consensus of 0.2%; September was revised to 0.4% from 0.3%

o Durable inventory levels were flat in October after increasing 0.7% in September. Increases in hardware (1.6%) and machinery (0.4%) offset declines in autos (-1.4%) and professional equipment (-0.7%).

o Nondurable inventories increased 1.2% in October after being unchanged in September. Energy price declines caused petroleum inventories to fall 1.9%. That loss, however, was more than offset by gains in farm products (3.6%), drugs (3.2%), and groceries (1.1%).

· October JOLTS - Job Openings 4.834 M vs Briefing.com consensus of ; September was revised to 4.685 M from 4.735

Upcoming Economic Data:

· Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications due out Wednesday at 7:00 (Briefing.com consensus of ; Last Week was -4.3%)

· November Treasury Budget due out Wednesday at 14:00 (Briefing.com consensus of ; October was -$135.2 bln)

Upcoming Fed/Treasury Events:

· The Treasury will issue new debt this week. The results will be issued at 13:00

o Tuesday $25 bln in 3 year notes

o Wednesday: $21 bln 10 year notes

o Thursday: $13 bln 30 year bonds

Other International Events of Interest

· China's Shanghai Composite (-5.4%) posted its steepest slide in over five years as investors rushed for the exits after a rally over the past 13 sessions tacked on nearly 25%

· Greece's ASE trades -11% after Greece PM Samaras has called for a snap presidential election after the country failed to secure its final bailout payment

Jason's Commentaries

Surprisingly, the energy sector managed to lead the market from ending too badly in the losses and managed to gain 1.09%. However, I believe that is likely to be a short covering after a massive loss the previous day. Things are not going to be very much the same today as Oil just broke a new low of $62.09 as at 9am ET. I highly project that the energy sector is likely to be laggard today. Judging by the movements in other sectors last night, which is very flat, we're likely to head down today.

Market Call: DOWN

Date: 10 Dec 2014