The Trendspotting MadScientist's Journal

Time again for a tired bull to rest - 29 Aug 2013

noreply@blogger.com (The MadScientist) — Wed, 28 Aug 2013 16:47:00 +0000

It's been a long time... And now, I am making special effort to get this out as I think it is an important point. The S&P500 futures looked technically topped, Very obivously in the daily chart, and seemingly supported but he weekly chart. The daily chart of /ES has a trend break pattern, which over the rest of this week closes below 1630, it is an obvious confirmation. Have had so many sell signals in the weekly and daily chart. Currently, the /ES is oversold and a slight bounce isn't surprising. Will be expecting more downside later this week. The VIX is correlating the S&P500 downside as well, having technically bullish setups. Looks like it is time to have a turn again.

Last candle standing... 4 July 2013

noreply@blogger.com (The MadScientist) — Wed, 03 Jul 2013 16:16:00 +0000

Looks like a top is forming...

The weekly /ES chart already has a SELL signal.
On the daily /ES chart, 1565 on /ES appears crucial to hold, after one or two more up days in the rollover area.

Right now, new worthy market tuggings are China, Portugal and coming back again, Greece...

The MadScientist

4 July 2013

Note: ALL material posted here is from my personal opinion, and my opinion may differ or change without notice. These do NOT constitute as solicitation, investment nor financial advice. By reading the materials presented here, Readers acknowledge the awareness that the materials are intended for educational purposes only. For investment(s) advice, related decisions and/or actions pertaining to investments, always consult your own qualified financial advisors, brokers, etc.

Charts are from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim platform

Expecting 1522 end

noreply@blogger.com (The MadScientist) — Thu, 18 Apr 2013 16:02:00 +0000

Just for fun... A quick look and seems like the third test of support may have just broken it.
breaking for sure signals another tanker this afternoon... Target 1522 on /ES.

Let's see how it pans out...

All that glitters is not gold... - 15 April 2013

noreply@blogger.com (The MadScientist) — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 15:32:00 +0000

Ouch...

Look at the Gold futures MONTHLY chart.

Over the past 3 years, many have asked me about the 24% returns in gold investment schemes available. My reply always had been that it is a 100% risk for promised returns that may not exist if the company goes under, or worse, when gold price drops suddenly and demand is virtually zero.

Looking at the chart for the past few days of gold price drop, and today's price action, I feel for those who were in those schemes. Watch what happens now that Gold price dropped so drastically in a short span of time.

Only advice left is:
The sooner we learn from our mistakes, the lesser the pain will be.
Recognise the wise man who looks like a fool and the fool who looks like the wise man.

Good luck!

The MadScientist

Made in Japan - 6 April 2013

noreply@blogger.com (The MadScientist) — Fri, 05 Apr 2013 06:47:00 +0000

I'm in a very Japanese mood now... yes, I am leaving for Tokyo, Japan next week. Guess what happens when I am away? It was previously mentioned in another post.

In any case, this posting comes at a time when signals are appearing.

For ES weekly chart, it is a mature rally and again see signs of tired euphoria on the back of lower volumes. The daily chart has a SELL signal from yesterday and bearish divergence is clear in the MACD. Am beginning to wonder if April 2013 is even going to be a buligh month at all or not...

The VIX chart is not about to breakout but is clearly consolidating. I am expecting a break out just around the corner (when I am not looking, as I am away).

Interestingly, TLT iShares long term bond fund price has had major BUY signals and really popped up this week. Is this an early indicator? Perhaps so and one wonders what gives here...

Next week may be more down than what we would like to think.
Watch that corner!

The MadScientist
6 April 2013

Note: ALL material posted here is from my personal opinion, and my opinion may differ or change without notice. These do NOT constitute as solicitation, investment nor financial advice. By reading the materials presented here, Readers acknowledge the awareness that the materials are intended for educational purposes only. For investment(s) advice, related decisions and/or actions pertaining to investments, always consult your own qualified financial advisors, brokers, etc.

Charts are from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim platform

It's just getting interesting

noreply@blogger.com (The MadScientist) — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 16:19:00 +0000

I'd like to reference an article in Marketwatch.com ( http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-rise-sp-nears-all-time-closing-high-2013-03-25?dist=lcountdown )

It's just starting to look really interesting now... Seems like there is thin ice all around.

Thread carefully!

The First of More? - 18 March 2013

noreply@blogger.com (The MadScientist) — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 03:14:00 +0000

This shock really came as a surprise to many... and Asian markets are reacting.
Expect the Western markets to do so as well later this evening as the futures and FX markets are undergoing volatility while the Western world sleeps.
/ES S&P 500 futures gapped down and is 1.18% lower. Nothing major but it could be the start of something to watch for this week.
Expect some pent up fear to project into the markets particularly after a good run in recent weeks.

See http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-analysts-are-saying-about-cyprus-tax-shock-2013-03-17

This may be the first of a few more to come...

The MadScientist

18th March 2013
Note: ALL material posted here is from my personal opinion, and my opinion may differ or change without notice. These do NOT constitute as solicitation, investment nor financial advice. By reading the materials presented here, Readers acknowledge the awareness that the materials are intended for educational purposes only. For investment(s) advice, related decisions and/or actions pertaining to investments, always consult your own qualified financial advisors, brokers, etc.

Charts are from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim platform

On borrowed time - 13 March 2013

noreply@blogger.com (The MadScientist) — Wed, 13 Mar 2013 10:04:00 +0000

The S&P500 turned bullished earlier this week.
That perhaps sparked a couple of friends to start asking for opinions for how this market is going to move for the rest of this year, and if they should join in to ride the trend.

This analysis is for you all...

SPX (S&P500 Index)

The Monthly chart on the left shows a 3rd wave in a 3rd wave (for those who are into Elliot Wave theories). Even if you are not into Elliot Waves, what this indicates is simply that the trend is t-r-end (Turning Round the End). It is a mature trend in a monthly chart, which means that the technical outlook here is longer term (in months). The MACD is flashing that this trend is mature. And current prices are near the mania upper band. Notice how the previous four times over the last 3 years has a pullback happen when price is near or at mania? The count leaves only 1-4 more bullish candles, and I suspect perhaps we would see two more bullish months at the most, and may hit the last 2007 high resistance level or just fail it.
Therefore, while it seems bullishly trending, it's a bit late into the party IMHO.

The Weekly chart on the right shows it is still a bullish tone, but the prices are at mania levels. There is no Sell signal yet, but you can see how far off we are from the Buy signals. Nonetheless, it's still bullish - at least for now.

The Daily chart above (right panel) shows the Volumes (from ES futures) and this last rally has drooping volumes. Again, I'd say it is undeniably bullish for now, but pretty much just about there and I'm looking for the turnaround soon.

The MadScientist

13th March 2013

Note: ALL material posted here is from my personal opinion, and my opinion may differ or change without notice. These do NOT constitute as solicitation, investment nor financial advice. By reading the materials presented here, Readers acknowledge the awareness that the materials are intended for educational purposes only. For investment(s) advice, related decisions and/or actions pertaining to investments, always consult your own qualified financial advisors, brokers, etc.

Charts are from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim platform

No bull about that... - 10 March 2013

noreply@blogger.com (The MadScientist) — Sun, 10 Mar 2013 03:03:00 +0000

A quick note.

Looking at the S&P500 futures, along with other correlated markets, there is a bullish sense earlier this week and looks set to continue for a bit.

Ke Belakang Pusing! - 25 February 2013

noreply@blogger.com (The MadScientist) — Tue, 26 Feb 2013 02:51:00 +0000

Ke belakang pusing. Army use: A parade square command in Malay (literally 'go to the back and turn around'), meaning to turn around.

In last (week's) post, I ended with "...followed by more downside over the coming days..."

Yesterday's action firmed up that view as well as technically shows a chagne in trend.

/ES (S&P500 futures)

The weekly ES charts show a trend exhaustion after euphoria, with a weekly divergence on the MACD. The daily chart has already given a Sell signal on 22nd February, the day after my last post. Yesterday's price action firmed that it is likely to be a down week with the ES looking to correct at least to 1400-1425 range.

VIX

The VIX spiked. The weekly VIX MACD is about to breakout into bullish area and this is a worrying indication for some. The daily VIX spiked out of boundary into an extreme area and from previous patterns, tends to be out of the bands for some time before moderating. This time is particuarly strong(er) and can expect more downside correction in the overall markets as the volatility spikes for a couple of days.

/DX (USD futures)

While the S&P500 tanked, the VIX spiked, the USD had already been rallying over the last couple of weeks. Again, with a higher USD, we tend to see more downside on the S&P500.

TLT (Bond ETF)

The TLT ETF already clocked in a weekly Buy signal.
Go figure.

Time to be cautious...

The MadScientist

25th February 2013
Note: ALL material posted here is from my personal opinion, and my opinion may differ or change without notice. These do NOT constitute as solicitation, investment nor financial advice. By reading the materials presented here, Readers acknowledge the awareness that the materials are intended for educational purposes only. For investment(s) advice, related decisions and/or actions pertaining to investments, always consult your own qualified financial advisors, brokers, etc.

Charts are from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim platform

That's about it... - 21 February 2013

noreply@blogger.com (The MadScientist) — Thu, 21 Feb 2013 09:19:00 +0000

Last night's price action just claims another interim top and is likely to be followed by more downside over the coming days...

Just about to... 4 February 2013

noreply@blogger.com (The MadScientist) — Mon, 04 Feb 2013 17:14:00 +0000

It seems that after my previous post, the S&P500 appeared to be a little bullish for a while. While it was bullish, the signs are still clear that this rally is really tired out. Over the weekend, even Marketwatch.com posted some articles about this tired bull and the end of earnings seasons this month. Some European issues yet again seem to take stage, and US data/earnings are a bunch of hits and misses.

So, what do the charts indicate?

A turning point, to say the least...

Here's why:

/ES (S&P500 futures)

What a beauty... Just look at the weekly chart. How this week ends may signal the longer term retracement as price is overbought, and the MACD are signalling a weak advancement into an extreme bullishness. Check out the decreasing volume over the past two months.
The daily chart show a little more, with MACD tapering off fast despite last week's late bull run. Today's sharp return to below 1500 signals a possible blowout top. How today closes can determine if this is a real blowout top. This is where I would be watching the candlestick patterns first, followed by other signals (of my program). You do see an alert for 1490, and closing below this level fulfils the bearish candlestick, etc.

VIX

If anyone has been watching the VIX, it is a good show...
The weekly chart starts this week as a gap up. Two outcomes, a close of the gap or a gap-and-run. The latter would really coincide with lots of downside for the S&P500. Notice the bullish divergence built up over the months in 2012?
The daily chart gave a buy signal last week, and gapped down 4 days later. However, gapping up today, and closing at current levels or higher would signal a gap and close.

Overall, the charts indicate incoming downside for the S&P500. Let's see how this works out...
Meanwhile, keep your powder dry!

The MadScientist

4th February 2013

Note: ALL material posted here is from my personal opinion, and my opinion may differ or change without notice. These do NOT constitute as solicitation, investment nor financial advice. By reading the materials presented here, Readers acknowledge the awareness that the materials are intended for educational purposes only. For investment(s) advice, related decisions and/or actions pertaining to investments, always consult your own qualified financial advisors, brokers, etc.

Charts are from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim platform

Time to pop?

noreply@blogger.com (The MadScientist) — Tue, 29 Jan 2013 05:58:00 +0000

After a nice bullish run, the steam is running low and it is about time to pop...

Coincidentally, I seem to be able to view the charts only just before a possible pullback.

Looking at the ES weekly charts, exhaustion is setting in. And the daily ES charts signal a possible interim top. The VIX has posted a buy signal yesterday.

Other correlated markets do look indecisive, which indicates a pullback... Crude is toppish, TLT (bond ETF) is still in a downtrend, Gold and the USD futures look indecisive.

On the news front, there is not much headwind for now.

Commotion & commodities - 25 December 2012

noreply@blogger.com (The MadScientist) — Tue, 25 Dec 2012 13:29:00 +0000

I have decided to start a new series of analysis for commodities.

/CL WTI Crude Futures

The Crude weekly chart had just given a Buy signal for this week, although it is not completed. Given the chart technicals, it appears that crude is currently consolidating and actually may tip over downwards. The daily chart show a weak "failed" attempt for crude to breakout, and is likely to breakdown. This may be accentuated by a rising USD.

/GC Gold futures

Ref:
26 October post about Gold looking for 200MA
4 November post about Gold breaking 200MA
Previously posted about Gold losing its shine (link above).
The weekly chart now has confirmed Sell signals since 2 weeks ago. Price is currently at a long term uptrend support line. Breakdown in price from 1660 would mean a decent correction in Gold prices. Watch that line...
The daily chart has price consolidating at the daily 200MA. Technicals suggest a small bounce and losing grip of the trendline, only to breakdown as we move into 2013.

Similar to the overall market technicals, it appears that commodities such as crude and gold will follow suit in a decent sized correction. This is probably in line with the fear of the fiscal cliff rather than a flight to safety, and even into inflationary protection.

The MadScientist
25th December 2012

Note: ALL material posted here is from my personal opinion, and my opinion may differ or change without notice. These do NOT constitute as solicitation, investment nor financial advice. By reading the materials presented here, Readers acknowledge the awareness that the materials are intended for educational purposes only. For investment(s) advice, related decisions and/or actions pertaining to investments, always consult your own qualified financial advisors, brokers, etc.

Charts are from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim platform

Merry Christmas & Wary New Year! - 25 December 2012

noreply@blogger.com (The MadScientist) — Tue, 25 Dec 2012 06:37:00 +0000

Merry Christmas everyone!
I am writing from a very 40 degree hot & sunny Perth suburb this Christmas Day. I hope your Christmas is special as well...

Meanwhile, I just managed to squeeze some time out to prepare for the new year... in terms of chart technicals.

Let's see what we can expect in the coming week into the new year 2013.

S&P500 / ES

The weekly chart shows that the S&P futures are still in a mature uptrend. This uptrend is waning in strength as shown by MACD as well as momentum and price action. January 2013 may end sideways from here slightly above or below it seems. The daily chart has given a Sell signal on Christmas Eve and with the Fiscal Cliff talk to resume again from the 27th, with littlel to go on, I'd suspect that there is a short term downside over the next two weeks. Given the S&P500 futures technicals, I'd say that this is another correction just waiting to happen upon return from the Christmas holidays.

USD futures / DX

The USD futures coorrelates opposing from the S&P500 usually when funds exit or enter the US markets. The weekly chart has price rested on the 79 support (co-inciding with the 200MA - green line) and is looking to break 80.20 resistance. It looks likely that the USD should see a rally in the coming weeks. The daily chart nicely has generated a Buy signal and other indicators look good for a rally to follow through. From here, the USD looks set to rally, and does indicate a bearish scenario for the S&P500.

TLT

The weekly TLT (US Treasury bond fund) looks like a topping in the bond prices, currently consolidating near the moving average. However, with a Sell signal last week, it is possible for a MA line break. Breaking down below the support of 120 would signal a fall in prices. The daily chart shows price struggling to break above, which should be clearer into 2013.
It was observed preioously that a rise is the USD futures was slightly preceeded by a rise in TLT, which concurrently saw a fall in the S&P500. This time the indication doesn't seem so much of flight to aafety, but more of fear (see VIX charts below).

VIX

The volatility index looks interesting. The weekly VIX chart has a Buy signal last week, after weeks of bullish divergence, and it is the fourth of 2/3 signals that served well in the past nine months. The latest Buy signal comes also after a bounce off the long term support of 15.5. The daily chart shows that bounce off with MACD crossing into bullish territory and price crossing above the MAs. Recent Buy signals in the daily chart were also given and VIX spiked. There is more fear/volatility in the horizon... the volatility cycle is due.

Overall, this (short) last trading week will see some decent volatility, and anticipates a bearish entry into 2013 fuelled by fear rather than safe haven exodus.

Happy New Year!

The MadScientist

25th December 2012

Note: ALL material posted here is from my personal opinion, and my opinion may differ or change without notice. These do NOT constitute as solicitation, investment nor financial advice. By reading the materials presented here, Readers acknowledge the awareness that the materials are intended for educational purposes only. For investment(s) advice, related decisions and/or actions pertaining to investments, always consult your own qualified financial advisors, brokers, etc.

Charts are from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim platform

The end of the... dead cat bounce - 22 Dec 2012

noreply@blogger.com (The MadScientist) — Fri, 21 Dec 2012 18:34:00 +0000

I have a short note to add for those still reading and following my blog...

Firstly, the last day of the world isn't quite the last day of the world.
See this PAGE

Secondly, for those who have heard, a number of us traders have been saying that it jolly well could be the end of the financial world as we know it... and so it seems, the end of the dead cat bounce was just a couple of days ago, SELL signals given in the daily charts in the last two days, and just now it looks like a confirmation reversal is in play. There goes Santa...

Finally, I am writing from Perth, Australia.
For those who know the significance of me being overseas... good on ya. Do leave a message if you happen to read this, and just stamp chop your agreement that what I had told you before is true.
Well, what is it? Instead of the markets dropping a whopper when hair is cut (like Conrad Alvin Lim)... the markets tends to tank real hard when I am away. This is an estimated 70-80% accuracy since 2009. Initially identified by my brother, and then my spouse and close friends also began to realize it happening.
For the times I can remember...
I was in Tokyo, Japan in Nov 2008
I was in Melbourne, Australia in Jan 2009
I was in Berlin, Germany in Aug-Sep 2009
I was in Kansai region, Japan in August 2010
I was in Perth, Australia in Nov 2010
I was in Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA in February 2011 and then in Melbourne, Australia in March 2011 when the massive Japanese earthquake struck
I was in Bangkok, Thailand in early October 2012
and I am now in Perth, Australia... December 2012.

Take a look at these periods... definitely no bull (run) there. Either turnaround times, or retracement, or some downward shifts in the market.

An intriguing correlation there...

Meanwhile, as I take my time analyzing charts in my holidays (if at all), I'd like to wish all readers a Happy New World, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
Live life to the fullest and do something different everyday.

The MadScientist
22 December 2012

Dead cat bounce, again! - 22 November 2012

noreply@blogger.com (The MadScientist) — Thu, 22 Nov 2012 11:19:00 +0000

Interestingly, the S&P500 futures (/ES) this week had a recovery bounce as expected from last week's observation. A strong bounce credited, but watch the volumes drop drastically, possibly due to Thanksgiving today in the USA. Some influence of Black Friday shopping numbers will be reflected next week Monday. However, the last few days had a stall after a large move.

So what now?

Besides Conrad Alvin Lim cutting his hair... Which tends to have a correlation in market drops in recent years... A continuation of this bounce meets the 200MA at 1400. Failing the 200MA test is a major "ice-hole failure" (credit to the late David Elliott).

Just look back at what follows the 200MA failures in history.

I don't even have to see the charts proper to expect the outcome. Am
Just waiting for some other pieces to fall in place.

Watch your step!

The MadScientist
22 November 2012

A little light... 13 November 2012

noreply@blogger.com (The MadScientist) — Tue, 13 Nov 2012 13:10:00 +0000

A quick post this Deepavali holiday.

Happy Diwali!

I'd say that we can expect a light bounce (in ES) before things roll over the cliff.
Clearly, pun doubly intended.

The MadScientist
13 November 2012

Down under - 4 November 2012

noreply@blogger.com (The MadScientist) — Sun, 04 Nov 2012 02:21:00 +0000

Greetings!
This is a post from Melbourne, after a hearty Country breakfast from Pancake Parlour...

Friday's reversal action on the ES minis bringing it back to near 1400 just shows weakness that is perhaps more likely to breakdown below 1400 soon.

Crude and Gold moved lower already for various reasons like NFP jobs report and supplies expectations after Sandy, etc.. However, the technical picture is affirming further downside, particularly with Gold slicing through it's 200MA.

The USD futures spiked and is at the 200MA, possibly expect a pause and then a breakthrough, which corroborates with the related markets. Am seeing AAPL tanking a little hard on Friday looking for some support to bounce.

Again, downside risk is increased. Heads-up.

The MadScientist
4 November 2012

Decision point - 1 November 2012

noreply@blogger.com (The MadScientist) — Thu, 01 Nov 2012 09:43:00 +0000

Just as it was technically bearish, Sandy stormed into the picture over Halloween and left a mess everywhere. Even in the intraday charts, it looks a tad messy.

However, the daily ES chart seems to point to a decision point these two days. Can 1400 hold out... And for how long more?

Watch that level...

The MadScientist
1 November 2012

Fair warning given - 26 October 2012

noreply@blogger.com (The MadScientist) — Fri, 26 Oct 2012 06:28:00 +0000

As of yesterday's market action, the previous signals are being confirmed and yet again and again...

Let's look at the charts...

S&P500 futures (ES)

The weekly chart had given a SELL signal last week and this week confirmed that signal with a bearish candle. This weekly bearish divergence is in the process of evening itself out and is likely to bring more weeks of bearish sentiment.
The daily chart had a minor Sell signal and completed a price action trend reversal pattern, mentioned previously. Price then held at 1400 support for a couple of day and broke support early today (26 Oct 2012). The MACD is currently crossing over bearish. Although a steep decline, mostly due to earnings, the ES has a chance to bounce and I suspect might reach 1375 by early next week. IF 1360 breaks and holds 3 days below that level, that would be the last line and signals a major change in the primary trend.
At this point, there are bearish news, but not major news that would rattle a steep selloff - YET.

VIX/VXX

Looking at the VIX and VXX charts, a very nice setup apepars.
The weekly charts show an obvious bullish divergence and the daily chart corresponds similarly.
The weekly VIX chart has a BUY signal and the daily chart recently had BUY signals, with MACD bullish crossovers. In the VXX daily chart, price bounced off a long term support, with a BUY signal followed by a gap up. Making a new recent high confirms the momentum of the volatility, correspondingly the ES will be at lower levels.
What this means is that it is that it is time for the next volatility cycle. The fun begins...

TLT

Earlier mentioned, there is bearish news, but there is no panic news. And we see this with the TLT charts as there is no "flight to safety" in the recent market rundown. Watch for the breakout or breakdown, and this should give an indication. THIS is what I have been talking about looking out for the triggering news.

USD futures / DX

The USD is condolidating and is meeting some resistance. Again, breaking out above 80.4-80.6 would be a corroborating sign with TLT rising. Watch this chart closely.

GOLD futures

Quite clear that Gold, even after QE3 announcement fell out of favour. It peaked out and this time is likely to be looking for its 200MA about 1660. Last week saw SELL signals given in both weekly and daily charts.

Crude Oil

Clearly in a downtrend, Crude is intermediate term downtrend, looking for support at 82.60. More down days to follow soon, even as a bullish divergence seems to be forming in the daily chart.

IF there is a time to pay attention to the markets, it would be now.
Stay well & safe.

The MadScientist
26th Octobner 2012

Note: ALL material posted here is from my personal opinion, and my opinion may differ or change without notice. These do NOT constitute as solicitation, investment nor financial advice. By reading the materials presented here, Readers acknowledge the awareness that the materials are intended for educational purposes only. For investment(s) advice, related decisions and/or actions pertaining to investments, always consult your own qualified financial advisors, brokers, etc.

Charts are from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim platform

Who spilled hot oil? - 23 October 2012

noreply@blogger.com (The MadScientist) — Tue, 23 Oct 2012 15:09:00 +0000

3 days ago, I popped a post about having a top and the candlestick pattern was a bad combo.

Since then, the /ES is currently at least 40pts down.

According to price action rules, a top is confirmed to be in place with a trend change. This price action principle works with two lower highs and three lower lows following a recent high. Today, the /ES achieved the pattern completion.

I am now intrigued to look into the /ES weekly chart more closely.
Furthermore, VIX has spiked 16% today and a breakout follows a bullish divergence. Signals a major turning point.

This is way too obvious... things have already started to get ugly, if you haven't noticed yet.

The MadScientist
23 October 2012

Life is .... And then you fry - 19 October 2012

noreply@blogger.com (The MadScientist) — Fri, 19 Oct 2012 08:36:00 +0000

If you have been following the news, one might have thought it to have changed to be a bullish run... For the last three sessions, the S&P500 index looks good. However, caution is given as yesterday's candlestick pattern is prompting a likely lower high in a bearish divergence.

Not good combination IMHO...

Have a great weekend!

The MadScientist
19 October 2012

There it goes... 15 Oct 2012

noreply@blogger.com (The MadScientist) — Mon, 15 Oct 2012 14:53:00 +0000

As I post this, a retracement has started, and clearly so. It's very obvious by now... In addition, gold is following suit without much nudging from the USD rise. AAPL is also leading, having broken support.

Watch the key VIX and TLT levels as they attempt a breakout.

Looks as if there is more to come... I am left wondering and looking for the news to trend the markets down harder.

From a very sleepy me... Take heed. Time to be very cautious.

The MadScientist
15 October 2012

Twin peaks - 10 October 2012

noreply@blogger.com (The MadScientist) — Tue, 09 Oct 2012 20:44:00 +0000

I am writing on the cab on the way to the airport... On the way to start the first of many milestones to come.

It appears rather obviously that a double top is in place, and it is time for a (hard) retracement/correction to start. As with previous turns, this juncture developed as expected but does not come with obvious fundamental (actually it is in place with all the lack of bullishness after the QEs) and news market rockers. The closest we got was yesterday's IMF warning statement, which appeared to be 'timely' in technical analyses terms.

With the S&P500 index and futures giving such obvious technical perspective, including a bearish divergence, the VIX correspondingly shows a bullish divergence. Both hd in the past days failed an attempted breakout/breakdown.

Now, we might need some breaking news to set it all in motion for a decent correction, and this has a good chance of snowballing.

Watch for it.

Be safe.

The MadScientist