Walker Report

For Conservatives, Making Every GOP Moderate Fear Them Might be Worth Losing Delaware

2010-09-20T14:48:00.001-04:00

All over the country right now elected moderates in the Republican Party are probably not sleeping easy as the result of Christine O'Donnell's surprise victory in Delaware. The reason for their dread is that frankly O'Donnell is a bad candidate, Mike Castle was a really good general election candidate and Delaware is extremely blue state. They may be thinking if O'Donnell can beat Castle in deep blue Delaware, none of us are safe. Christine O'Donnell's victory last week is different from other Tea Party-backed primary upsets. Marco Rubio forced moderate Charlie Crist out of the Republican Party in Florida, but Rubio has been a good candidate with successful history in politics and was electable in a swing state like Florida. In Nevada, Sharron Angle beat Sue Lowden but Lowden was damaged goods and the state likely an unlosable race. Ken Buck was polling as strongly as Jane Norton in Colorado's general. Despite Alaska's Senate candidate Joe Miller clearly being less electable than...

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DCCC Attempts to Counter Bleak Narrative with Internal Polls

2010-09-07T14:40:00.001-04:00

There has been a lot of bad news for Democrats recently. A Gallup poll found Republicans with a historically large, ten-point lead on the generic ballot question, and the ABC News/Washington Post poll found Republicans with a 13-point lead among likely voters on the generic ballot. Many political prognosticators are also projecting Democrats losing control of the House. In what can only be assumed is an attempt to counter the “Democrats are doomed” narrative, the DCCC has released five internal polls of swing districts taken by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. Not surprisingly, they paint a much better picture for Democrats in the midterms. All polls are of 400 likely voters DCCC (8/25-29) NC-08 Larry Kissell (D) 48 Harold Johnson (R) 36 Thomas Hill (L) 6 DCCC (8/23-26) AL-02 Bobby Bright (D) 52 Martha Roby (R) 43 DCCC (8/24-26) VA-05 Tom Perriello (D) 42 Robert Hurt (R) 44 Jeff Clark (I) 6 DCCC (8/31-9/2) SD-AL Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) 50 Kristi Noem (R) 41 DCCC...

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Will Joe Miller's Win Put the Alaska Senate Seat in Play?

2010-08-30T13:00:00.000-04:00

It looks like Sarah Palin-backed ultra-conservative Joe Miller will actually win the Alaska Senate Republican primary against incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski. Votes are still being counted but Miller has the lead. The big question: is there any hope that Democrat Scott McAdams may actually win the general election this year? To help answer the question Tom Jensen at PPP has polled the two-person and potential three-person race (PDF) with Murkowski running on the Libertarian Party ticket. PPP (PDF) (8/27-28) Joe Miller (R) 47 Scott McAdams (D) 39 Undecided 14 Joe Miller (R) 38 Scott McAdams (D) 22 Lisa Murkowski (L) 34 Undecided 6 The important point about the poll is that Democrat Scott McAdams is not well known in Alaska. 23% of voters have a favorable view of him, 24% have an unfavorable view, and 53% are not sure. This is not surprising given that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has invested no money in the race and until recently McAdams had raised less than $10,000....

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PA Sen: Toomey Holds Big Lead Over Sestak Thanks to Large Enthusiasm Gap

2010-08-17T16:51:00.001-04:00

Republican Pat Toomey holds a substantial nine-point lead in his Pennsylvania Senate race against Democrat Joe Sestak, according to a new PPP poll of likely voters. Sestak suffers from tanking support for Obama and a serious enthusiasm gap. Currently, only 40 percent of likely voters in Pennsylvania approve of Obama's job performance while 55 percent disapprove. PPP (PDF) (8/14-16) Joe Sestak 36 Pat Toomey 45 Undecided 20 That is a serious deficit for Sestak in what many people thought was going to be a close race in a traditional swing state. One of the big problems for Sestak, according to PPP, is that Democratic-leaning voters are not enthusiastic about this election, many saying they are not sure to vote this November. This is our first poll of the race explicitly surveying likely voters and given the considerably greater enthusiasm on the Republican side we're seeing an electorate in the state that voted for John McCain by a point in 2008, in contrast to Barack Obama's actual 10...

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Pew: Dems, GOP Even on Generic Ballot; Highly Disengaged Youth Vote "Leads" Unenthused Electorate

2010-08-11T18:37:00.001-04:00

According to a new Pew Research poll (PDF) of registered voters in the upcoming congressional election, 45 percent are leaning Democratic while 44 percent are leaning Republican. This does not bode well for Democrats, since they need to have a significant lead in the generic ballot if they hope to hold onto their large majorities in the House and Senate. At the same time, these numbers also don't point to a massive Republican wave. By comparison, at about this same time in 2006, Democrats led Republicans 50 percent to 39 percent. The enthusiasm gap might be more important than the generic poll number. Pew, like almost every other pollster, has found Republicans far more engaged and excited about voting than Democrats. From Pew: Republicans and conservatives continue [sic] express far greater interest in the election than do Democrats and liberals. More than half of Republicans (55%) say they have given a lot of thought to the election, compared with 37% of Democrats. Among...

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WA Sen: Patty Murray and Dino Rossi Set to Be "Top Two"

2010-08-11T14:29:00.002-04:00

The next primary elections scheduled this summer are Washington and Wyoming, coming up on August 17th. The latest polling from SurveyUSA of the Washington senate primary strongly point to the fact that Democratic incumbent Senator Patty Murray and Republican Dino Rossi will be the two candidates that advance to the general. SurveyUSA (8/6-9) Patty Murray (D) 41 Dino Rossi (R) 33 Clint Didier (R) 11 Paul Akers (R) 5 Others 5 Undecided 4 Murray and Rossi have a double digit leads over all other candidates in this single, open primary contest, and should easily be the top two vote-getters. It looks like the Democratic and Republican parties will get their top choices for November. It is important to remember the Washington State "primary" is not like most states where it is up to the parties to select their nominees for the general election, either through convention or plebiscite. Washington, and California starting in 2012, adopted the top-two primary system. All candidates,...

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CO Gov: John Hickenlooper May Be the Luckiest Man in Politics

2010-08-11T14:29:00.001-04:00

John Hickenlooper, Mayor of Denver and Democratic nominee for Governor of Colorado, may be the single luckiest Democrat running for office this year. Only a few months ago, it looked like he was going to face a very tough election against a solid Republican candidate, Scott McInnis, in a bad political climate for Democrats. Polling had the race dead even (PDF). That was until McInnis was caught plagiarizing, creating a domino effect of unbelievable good fortune for Hickenlooper. McInnis was caught plagiarizing much of the work he had been paid several hundred thousand dollars to produce. This did not sit well with Colorado voters, creating an opening for the only other person in the primary--political novice Dan Maes. Maes is not only an extreme conservative but also has some downright crazy ideas. For example, he thinks steps taken to make Denver more bike friendly were all part of an elaborate plot by the United Nations to take over Denver. McInnis and Maes refused to bow out of...

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July Jobs Numbers: For Dems, the Most Important (and Worst) Political News of the Day

2010-08-06T12:29:00.000-04:00

That latest job numbers are bad news for the country, and, as a result, bad news for the incumbent political party, which will inevitably feel the brunt of voter anger over the economy. The country lost 131,000 jobs in July, and there is no indication the jobs market will improve in the three months leading up to the November election. Congressional Democrats have done nothing recently that should noticeably increase employment and nothing new is expected to become law in the next month. This is a recipe for a bad midterm election for Democrats. The correlation between economic performance leading up to an election and the success of the incumbent party is very close. Bad economic conditions heading into an election have historically meant electoral losses for the party in power, and this year looks no different The November election is fast approaching. People's opinions about how the economy is doing will soon jell, if they haven't already. Even if things begin to improve in late...

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Don’t Know Much About History: Chris Dodd Defends Filibuster with Fiction

2010-08-05T12:10:00.000-04:00

It is intolerable to hear senators go on about the importance and traditions of their chamber when they seem to not understand or to willfully ignore both. The latest example is Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) defending the 60-vote threshold for cloture (put in place roughly 40 years ago) by essentially citing made-up history about Congress. From Huffington Post: "I made a case last night to about ten freshman senators, you know, you want to turn this into a unicameral body? What's the point of having a Senate? If the vote margins are the same as in the House, you might as well close the doors," Dodd told reporters in the Capitol. Dodd is either ignorant of our country's entire political history, or he is calling the founders idiots. We know the framers of the Constitution intended for both the House and the Senate to pass laws with the same simple majority vote and wrote that into the document. The first Senate even had a rule that would have prevented a filibuster, ensuring all laws needed...

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What If People Actually Vote for Hard-Right, Tea Party Republicans?

2010-08-04T10:44:00.000-04:00

There has been much hope--or dread, depending on which party you support--that the embrace of arch-conservative and Tea Party-backed candidates in contest primaries could seriously cost the Republican Party several Senate seats this November. By my count, the GOP could lose at least five Senate race as a result of embracing a more conservative challenger against the establishment choice: Nevada, Kentucky, Colorado, Florida and Pennsylvania. If the Republican Party fails to make significant gains this year because of the close outcome in these races, that would be a strategic failure by the conservative base. But currently, polls don't indicate that championing right-wing nominees will cause the GOP to lose these races. While the more conservative or Tea Party candidates in those primaries may not be as electable as the establishment choices, the polling data indicate they could still easily win. A recent SurveyUSA poll found Republican Rand Paul leading Democrat Jack Conway in...

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WA Sen: Patty Murray Holds Lead in Tight Senate Race; Rossi Likely Other "Top Two"

2010-08-03T19:04:00.000-04:00

Recruiting Dino Rossi to challenge incumbent Sen. Patty Murray was a big pick-up for the Republican Party. He has managed to make Washington state’s Senate race competitive, according to a new PPP poll (PDF). PPP (PDF) (7/27-8/1) Patty Murray 49 Dino Rossi 46 Undecided 5 Washington is a very blue state, but these numbers indicate that Rossi has a legitimate chance of winning. Even if he doesn't win, forcing Democrats to spend resources in a state like Washington to defend a sitting Senator will still have value for the GOP. It also allows Republicans to claim, somewhat credibly, that they might take back the Senate. With Washington state now seriously contested, Republicans are reaching the necessary total of semi-competitive candidates. The good news for Murray is that Rossi is pretty much a known quantity from his two previous unsuccessful statewide campaigns. While Rossi is currently only a few points behind, he likely has much less room to grow than most challengers would at...

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CO Sen: Challenger Romanoff Surges Ahead of Incumbent Dem Bennet

2010-08-02T13:48:00.002-04:00

A new poll shows challenger Andrew Romanoff pulling ahead for the first time over appointed Democratic Colorado Senator Michael Bennet, who has held the lead for most of the campaign. Romanoff has been significantly outspent by Bennet, who has also drawn on support from the President and the DSCC. Yet a recent poll for “The Denver Post”/9News by SurveyUSA has Romanoff taking the lead over the incumbent. SurveyUSA Andrew Romanoff 48 Michael Bennet 45 Undecided 8 This is a significant improvement for Romanoff. With the primary roughly a week away on August 10, having momentum and a small lead is about as good as it gets for an underfunded challenger. In response to this poll, the Bennet campaign quickly released an internal poll that had him beating Romanoff by just four points. If this is, presumably, the best recent internal poll the Bennet campaign has, releasing it does little to change the idea that Bennet has a real chance of losing the party's nomination. On the Republican...

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Majority of Nevada Voters Still Oppose Marijuana Legalization

2010-08-02T13:48:00.001-04:00

A majority, 52 percent, of likely midterm voters in Nevada oppose marijuana legalization while only 42 percent support it, according to a new Mason-Dixon poll for the “Las Vegas Review-Journal”. Mason-Dixon (7/26-28) Would you support or oppose legalizing and taxing marijuana in Nevada? Support 42 Oppose 52 Undecided 6 This implies that in Nevada, there has been effectively zero increase in support for legalizing marijuana since 2006, when Question 7, a ballot measure to legalize and tax marijuana, failed by a 56-44 margin. It is hard to believe, given that pollsters like Gallup and Rasmussen have shown significant increase in support nationally for legalizing cannabis. There is no legalization initiative is on Nevada’s November ballot. Probably more important than comparing this recent poll with the official results for Question 7 is to compare it against the last Mason-Dixon poll on marijuana legalization, taken right before the 2006 election. That poll found 35 percent for...

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FL Sen: Crist Remains Strong, Meek Remains… Meek

2010-07-30T14:27:00.000-04:00

When governor Charlie Crist dropped out of the Republican primary, left his party and decided to run as an independent most people thought he did not stand much of a chance of winning. Yet since that time Crist has not only been able to consistently maintain a small lead and actually increase it slightly according to a new Quinnipiac poll. Quinnipiac (7/22-27) Kendrick Meek D 13 Marco Rubio R 33 Charlie Crist I 39 Someone else 1 Wouldn't vote 1 DK/NA 14 Jeff Greene 17 Marco Rubio R 32 Charlie Crist I 37 Someone else - Wouldn't vote 1 DK/NA 12 While this is not a huge lead for Crist, one shouldn't really expect a huge leads in three way contests, in both possible match ups Crist lead of Rubio is well outside the polls margin of error. While the poll says it would be best for Crist if Kendrik Meek wins the Democratic primary I'm not sure that is the case. Billionaire Jeff Greene definitely has a lot of his own money to spend on campaign advertising but will get very little...

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Arizonans, Stung by Unelected Gov, Will Vote to Change System

2010-07-19T14:14:00.000-04:00

The state of Arizona doesn't currently have the position of lieutenant governor in its government, but that could change if voters approve a ballot measure this November. Right now, if the Governor prematurely vacates the office, the Secretary of State is the replacement. That is how Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer ended up becoming Governor, by replacing Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano when she left to become Secretary of Homeland Security. From the “Arizona Republic” via Ballot Access News: Lawmakers this year approved Senate Concurrent Resolution 1013, which asks voters to consider changing the secretary of state's title to lieutenant governor. Arizona is one of only a handful of states that do not have a lieutenant governor. The question goes to the voters Nov. 2. The move would require a party's nominee for lieutenant governor to run on a joint ticket with that party's nominee for governor. The goal, supporters say, is "truth in advertising" --to make clear to...

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CA Gov, Sen: Republicans Whitman, Fiorina Leading

2010-07-13T10:51:00.001-04:00

Both top Republican candidates in California--gubernatorial hopeful Meg Whitman and Senate nominee Carly Fiorina--are leading in their respective races, according to a new SurveyUSA poll of likely voters. SurveyUSA (7/8-11) Governor Meg Whitman 46 Jerry Brown 39 Others 7 Undecided 8 Senate Carly Fiorina 47 Barbara Boxer 45 Other 3 Undecided 5 The poll is bad news for Brown, who has been struggling to generate excitement for his campaign. Whitman's lead is well above the poll’s four percent margin of error. Having spent roughly $80 million so far on a very sophisticated campaign, she has been able to flood the zone. Looking at the internals, Brown appears to have yet to rally his base. Democratic voters support him only by 64 percent to 20. As the November election nears, most Democrats will likely come home to Brown and improve his numbers. This is just the latest poll to show the California Senate race effectively dead even. This poll has Fiorina beating incumbent Democrat Barbara...

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FL Sen: Rubio Raises Millions; Crist Strikes Back with Anti-Drilling Ballot Measure

2010-07-13T09:51:00.001-04:00

The competitive three-way race for the open Florida Senate seat has some interesting new developments. Republican Marco Rubio is boasting impressive fund-raising numbers, pulling in more than $4.5 million in the second quarter, and Florida Gov. Charlie Crist is pushing to place an offshore-drilling ban on the ballot. While still leading in the polls, Crist needs to thread the needle carefully to win in November. It seems the best strategy is to paint Rubio as an extremist. This has two goals. First, it helps Crist, running as an independent, win votes from moderate Republicans and right-leaning independents. It also helps Crist to shore up the left-of- center vote. If Crist can keep the future Democratic nominee's poll numbers in the teens, he can peel off left-leaning voters by depicting the actual Democrat as a spoiler. Voting for the Dem will only throw the election to the right-wing boogeyman, Rubio. I suspect the goal of painting Rubio as a radical played a role in Crist using...

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Portland, Maine to Vote on Instant Runoff; New York May Follow

2010-07-12T15:03:00.000-04:00

This November, voters in Portland, Maine will decide whether to adopt instant runoff voting, sometimes called ranked voting or alternative voting, for the mayoral race. From “The Portland Press Herald”: Commissioner Nathan Smith, who chaired a subcommittee that researched the issue, said he has become convinced that the system is better than a primary or a runoff election because there is typically a sharp drop-off in voter turnout in a second election. Also, holding a second election would be more costly for the city and the candidates, he said. In a single plurality election with multiple candidates, a well-organized minority faction could elect a mayor with only narrow public support. Under ranked-choice voting, that would not happen, he said. Portland is the largest city in Maine, making it a potential model for adopting instant runoff voting elsewhere in the state. Currently, the mayor of Portland is not an elected position, but if the ballot measure reforming the city's...

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It's the Economy, Stupid Democrats

2010-07-12T15:02:00.000-04:00

Growth in real disposable income leading up to an election is a near-perfect predictor of how the incumbent party will do, says Ezra Klein in a perceptive article. This close correlation should not be surprising. People judge the majority party based on how much their personal economic standing has improved or deteriorated, as well as their friends’ and family’s. It is always the economy. With this in mind, we can zero in on the true failure of the Obama Administration and Congressional Democrats from a political standpoint. The data Klein points to show how modest the impact of the actual campaign is on the election. The court intrigue of the Washington bubble, arguments about procedure, CBO price tags and tallies of highly compromised legislative “wins” will have a negligible impact on voters’ decisions. Yet, despite how unimportant these things are to electoral outcomes, somehow they have become all-consuming priorities for the Administration and Congressional Democrats. Take,...

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When Geithner Talks About Reducing the Deficit, He Means Steal from the Poor and Give to the Rich

2010-07-09T16:35:00.000-04:00

I have long held the belief that when Republican deficit hypocrites talk about “reducing the deficit,” they are simply using it as secret code for “exploiting regular Americans.” They almost never have plans that would actually reduce the deficit. Their "deficit reduction" plans are mainly schemes like taking Medicare and Social Security from middle-class people, not raising taxes on the rich or implementing policies like direct drug-price negotiations, which would reduce government cost but hurt the profit of large corporations. Sadly, it appears the Obama Administration now falls firmly in the same camp of having “deficit reduction” just mean stealing from the poor to give to the rich. While he talks about how we need to reduce the deficit, on the other hand he fights diligently to increase the deficit by making sure hedge-fund managers and wealthy Wall Street investors pay a lower tax rate than teachers and police officers. From “The Wall Street Journal”: In a CNBC interview late...

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New Campaign Will Spend up to $15 Million to Push Public Financing of Elections

2010-07-09T16:34:00.001-04:00

Common Cause and Public Campaign have launched a multimillion-dollar campaign to push for the adoption of voluntary public financing of federal elections. Their goal is to spur Congress to pass the Fair Elections Now Act. From Huffington Post: Common Cause and Public Campaign, two organizations known for exposing the murkier influences on legislative and electoral processes, are staking $8 million to try and burnish Congress with the willpower to pass the Fair Elections Now Act. And they're willing to spend as much as $15 million on their campaign-season gambit. "We'll draw it out until we win," said David Donnelly, the campaign manager for the Campaign for Fair Elections. "We will continue the advertising, continue the grassroots organizing, continue the targeting and creative action.” The bill would provide public campaign money to candidates who proved they had a broad base of support by raising a set threshold of small-dollar donations. The program would be completely voluntary...

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CA Props: Marijuana Legalization Losing Narrowly, Anti-Gridlock Measure Winning with Voters

2010-07-09T16:32:00.001-04:00

Californians want to fight it out on marijuana legalization, ease up on budgeting procedure and stay strong on resisting climate change, according to Field Poll (PDF) results on some of the state’s ballot initiatives. Field surveyed on four of the 10 Propositions that will be on the ballot this November. Prop. 19: Marijuana Legalization The poll shows Prop. 19 losing narrowly, 48-44, with eight percent undecided. Of all four ballot initiatives polled, it had the most voter recognition. A full 77 percent of those polled had heard of it. This continues the pattern we have seen in other polls, with almost all voters having an opinion of Prop. 19 and very few undecided. Men slightly favor Prop. 19, 48-47, but women disapprove, 50-41. The Field Poll also confirms the pattern of young voters under the age of 30 heavily supporting marijuana legalization, 52-39, but those over 65 opposing it strongly, 57-33. Support divides fairly evenly for voters between 30 and 65. The success or failure...

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Communication First: Making Media to Move the Mainstream - Lessons from the Nonpartisan League, Part One

2010-07-06T15:54:00.000-04:00

Large corporations with a huge corrupting political influence are exploiting regular people. Bankers and traders on an exchange are selling phantom commodities to make huge profits to the detriment of the working class. A left-leaning group turns to politics to address these grievances, and the Chamber of Commerce and the mainstream attack it as “socialist,” unpatriotic and the tool of big labor. This is not modern times but the 1910s in the rise of the Nonpartisan League in North Dakota. The NPL was one of the most powerful political organizations in American history and the speed of its rise to power was unprecedented. The organization was formed in 1915 by two men sitting around a kitchen table. By 1918, it had taken complete control of the government of North Dakota and enacted much of its platform. Its success and failures hold a wealth of lessons for anyone interested in political organizations. Arthur Townley was the founder and driving force behind the NPL. He understood...

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KY Sen: To Know Him is Not to Love Him: Paul Drops to Even with Conway

2010-07-06T15:53:00.000-04:00

Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Jack Conway are tied in their Kentucky Senate race, 43-43, according to a new PPP poll. Kentucky is currently held by retiring Republican Jim Bunning, making this Senate race, along with Missouri, New Hampshire and North Carolina, one of the Democrats’ best hopes for going on the offensive in 2010. PPP 6/28-30 Conway 43 Paul 43 Undecided 14 It appears Conway's best hope is to turn the spotlight on Paul and depict him as a man with extreme views, far outside the mainstream. The increased media attention on Paul’s more controversial statements has hurt his favorability numbers. From the PPP blog: The more Kentucky voters get to know Rand Paul, the less they like him. When PPP first polled the race in December Paul's favorability was a +3 spread at 26/23. By May it was a -7 spread at 28/35. Now it's a -8 spread at 34/42. The national media attention Paul has received has hurt his cause with voters in the state--38% say it has made them less likely to...

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Cook Predicts GOP Wave in November; I Predict a Wave of Misdirected Dem Panic

2010-07-02T18:15:00.001-04:00

Charlie Cook, founder of The Cook Political Report, sees a Republican wave coming in November. While not always right, Cook has been at this for a long time and is a respected name in political forecasting. Among all voters, there has been a significant swing since 2008 when Democrats took their new majority won in 2006 to an even higher level. But when you home in on those people in this survey who are most likely to vote, the numbers are devastating. The NBC/WSJ survey, when combined with a previously released NPR study of likely voters in 70 competitive House districts by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg and Republican Glen Bolger, point to an outcome for Democrats that is as serious as a heart attack. Make no mistake about it: There is a wave out there, and for Democrats, the House is, at best, teetering on the edge. Anyway you slice it, the numbers are bad news for Democrats. Cook points out that Democratic voters are less enthusiastic about voting, and the generic ballot has...

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