The White Knight Speaks

Weather for the weekend of 28 - 29 January 2012

2012-01-26T16:41:00.002+10:00

Updated 27/1/2012

The monsoon trough is moving south, well into the continent and is expected to lie from Exmouth to Townsville on Saturday. A high will ridge up the east coast on Sunday, pushing the trough north but bringing moist on shore winds to south east Queensland. Widespread rain is forecast for Friday, gradually breaking up to showers on Saturday and Sunday.

Whilst the coastal area has received very heavy rain this week, the Downs have received lesser falls in the east than the west. Dalby has received 24mm. West of Chinchilla falls increase to 30mm or more (110mm at Dulacca). NOAA is currently forecasting about 30mm on Friday and 10mm on Saturday with showers on Sunday.

Saturday 28 January 2012
Dalby            26C
Stability         C
Convection     Dry convection to 7,000ft with cloud base 3,500ft
Wind              ENE @ 10kts

The entire atmosphere is very moist and cloud will be 8/8th with rain.

Sunday 29 January 2012
Dalby            28C
Stability         A
Convection     Dry convection to 6,500ft with cloud base 5,000ft
Wind              NE @ 10kts

The atmosphere is still very moist and there will be some rain.

Weather for the weekend of 21 - 22 January 2012

2012-01-19T06:07:00.002+10:00

Updated 20/1/2012

A high in the Bight is moving slowly east and is expected to be south east of Tasmania by Sunday evening. Meanwhile, the trough off the south east coast that caused this week's rain will linger through the weekend and a second trough, currently lying from the Kimberley to Victoria will remain largely stationary and fill by Sunday evening. It appears this trough is decaying faster than expected and so the thunderstorm risk for the weekend has receded considerably.

About 10 - 15mm of rain has fallen around Dalby in the last seven days, with the area around Chinchilla receiving somewhat more (62mm). The Goondiwindi (86mm) area received higher falls. NOAA is forecasting the possibility of very light rain only for the weekend. With the CAPE below 500J/kg and the SLI of -1C to -2C, there could be occasional light thundery showers associated with towering Cu.

Saturday 21 January 2012
Dalby           33C
Stability        A
Convection   Dry convection to 10,500ft with cloud base 9,000ft
Wind            SE@ 5kts

There will be some high cloud about.

Sunday 23 January 2012
Dalby           32C
Stability       A
Convection   Dry convection to 10,000ft with cloud base 8,000ft
Wind            SE @ 10kts

There will be some high cloud about and there is a possibility that some over development could occur.

Weather for the weekend of 14 - 15 January 2012

2012-01-12T07:33:00.000+10:00

Updated 13/1/12

A high is moving slowly through the Bight but is not expected to ridge up the east coast. Slack pressure dominates the north of the continent and will do so throughout the weekend. A trough will remain in the far west of Queensland and a second trough will form off the coast during Sunday.

Rainfall through the Downs has generally been light, with most falls occurring at the far end of the last week. Heavier falls occurred towards Taroom and Goondiwindi.

A strong jet stream (about 100kts) is sweeping moisture from ex-tropical cyclone Heidi into south east Queensland and this is forecast to increase the cloud and rainfall on the Downs over yesterdays predictions. Up to 10mm is now forecast for Saturday (with the possibility of this including thunderstorms) and up to 6mm on Sunday.

Saturday 14 January 2012
Dalby           27C
Stability        A
Convection    Dry convection to 9,000ft with cloud base 6,500ft
Wind             NE @ 5 kts

Cloud cover will build during the morning, becoming extensive by midday. From around midday thunderstorms are possible (CAPE 400J/kg and SLI -2C) but thundery showers are more likely.

Sunday 15 January 2012
Dalby           27C
Stability        A
Convection    Dry convection to 8,500ft with cloud base 6,000ft
Wind             ESE @ 10 kts

Cloud cover will be extensive throughout the day with periods of rain.

Weather for the weekend of 7 - 8 January 2012

2012-01-05T07:06:00.001+10:00

Updated 6/1/2012

Welcome to the start of another year of forecasts! I looked back at the forecasts from 12 months ago, which were all very wet - I am so glad we did not get the wet summer the Bureau suggested could happen again this year.

A high in the Bight is moving slowly eastwards, followed by a developing low with associated cold front. As the high moves east, it will ridge up the east coast and this pattern will last through to late Sunday, when the ridge will slip offshore ahead of an advancing troughlinked back to the low around Tasmania.

Isolated rain has fallen through the area in the last seven days, wtih the only notable falls being Wandoan 21mm, Drillham 12mm and Brigalow 5mm. Isolated thundery rain could occur leading up to the weekend, but at this stage the weekend looks to be rain free.

Saturday 7 January 2012
Dalby             34C
Stability          A
Convection     Dry convection to 10,000ft with cloud base at 9,500ft
Wind              NE @ 5kts shearing to 160/5 at 6,500ft and then increasing to 190/15 at 10,000ft

There will be some very high cloud about, but it should not affect convection. Shear wave is possible.

Sunday 8 January 2012
Dalby             37C
Stability        B
Convection     Blue convection to 9,500ftwith some wispy cloud
Wind              N @ 5kts with 190/5 at 6,500ft and then increasing to 200/15 at 10,000ft

There will be very high cloud about and it may be thick enough to partially suppress convection in places. Shear wave is possible.

Weather for the weekend of 10 - 11 December 2011

2011-12-08T06:24:00.001+10:00

Updated 9/12/2011

A high south east of the continent is moving slowly towards New Zealand whilst another approaches the south west of the continent, ridging into the Bight. Slack pressure with associated troughs will dominate the continent through the weekend into the early part of next week. The surface/mid level disturbance that brought the recent rain is now off the coast. However, instability associated with the slack pressure and troughs will bring thundery weather to the Downs through the weekend before clearing late on Monday. NOAA is currently forecasting a further 40-50mm of rain for this period. With the CAPE around 1000J/kg and SLI at -4C to -5C, there will be thunderstorms on both days and these could be severe.

In the last seven days, Dalby has received 37mm of rain and Oakey 17mm,. Further west, the heavy rain passed over Roma (85mm) awith its eastern boundary at Dulacca (32mm).

Saturday 10 December 2011
Dalby             27C
Stability          B
Convection      Dry convection to 6,000ft with cloud base at 5,000ft
Wind              NW @ 10kts

High cloud will increase during the day.

Sunday 11 December 2011
Dalby              30C
Stability          A
Convection      Dry convection to 8,000ft with cloud base at 6,000ft
Wind              NW @ 10kts

High and medium cloud cover will be fairly solid throughout the day.

Looking ahead for the Juniors (at Kingaroy) and Caboolture week (at DDSC)

The meteorogram for the next seven days is below. It shows the major thunderstorm activity and rain clearing from the Downs late on Monday, with Tuesday and Wednesday looking promising, despite the possibility of showers. Thursday is showing significant rain at this stage, but that is a bit distant for reliable forecasting (the forecast is clearly moving around quite bit).

Weather for the weekend of 3 - 4 December 2011

2011-12-01T06:18:00.001+10:00

A large and strong (reaching 1033 hPa) high is practically stationary in the Bight. It will move only very slowly east of the next few days but will ridge up the east coast behind the trough that is producing rain in the eastern Downs early today. This trough has produced 48mm of rain at Roma in the last 24 hours but falls appear to be diminishing as it moves east (Miles received only 2.8 mm). The trough will cross the coast today. A further trough is forming south from the Gulf, but will be held behind the coastal ridge until after the weekend.

Although Dalby received only about 30mm of rain last week, the area around Chinchilla was much wetter (falls of 50 - 60mm). Depending on the rain from the current trough, it can be expected that the area around Chinchilla will remain somewhat wet, with suppressed convection. NOAA is forecasting about 8mm as the trough passes.

Saturday December 3 2011
Dalby            28C
Stability         A
Convection     Dry convection to 10,000ft with cloud base at 8,500ft
Wind             E @ 5 kts

High cloud will from from around midday, thickening as the day progresses.

Sunday December 4 2011
Dalby            28C
Stability         B
Convection     Dry convection to 9,500ft with cloud base at 8,000ft
Wind             SE @ 5 kts

There will be significant high cloud throughout the day.

Weather for the weekend of 26 - 27 November 2011

2011-11-24T06:10:00.001+10:00

Updated 25/11/2011
A very slow moving trough lies through central Queensland and is not expected to clear the coast until sometime on Sunday. Ahead of the trough there is extensive although patchy rain (possibly as much as 60mm). This rain is expected to clear late on Saturday/early on Sunday as the trough passes.

It appears that the main rain band is passing to the west and south of the eastern Downs, with only 6mm having fallen on Dalby since 9am yesterday.

Thunderstorms are extremely unlikely as the CAPE is forecast at only 300J/kg and the SLI falls only to 0C.

Whilst there was no rain on the Downs last week, 35mm has fallen at Dalby since the rain commenced on Wednesday.More rain will fall today, but the rain band appears to be moving further south and so only one or two mm is expected today and possibly the same tomorrow.

Saturday 26 November 2011
Dalby             25C
Stability          C
Convection      Dry convection to 5,500ft with cloud base 5,000ft
Wind              NW @ 5kts

Sunday 27 November 2011
Dalby             31C
Stability          A
Convection      Blue convection to 8,500ft
Wind              SW @ 5-10kts

Whilst Sunday looks flyable, I would expect there to be some water in paddocks across the Downs, particularly further west. This may suppress convection and make some paddocks unusable for out landings.

Weather for the weekend of 19 - 20 November 2011

2011-11-17T06:03:00.001+10:00

Updated 18/11/2011

A high off the southern NSW coast will move slowly east over the next four days. Another high is approaching the continent from the west and a trough will form as this distance between the highs narrows. However, the trough is not expected to move through SE Queensland until after the weekend - at this stage late on Wednesday.

There has only been light and very scattered rain across the Downs in the last seven days - Allora is reporting 1mm and Miles 6mm. Falls were slightly heavier and more concentrated towards Goondiwindi, with Inglewwod reporting 8mm. There is some light rain approaching Goondiwindi this morning - the northern extent of a dying trough that is producing rain for central NSW.

Saturday 19 November 2011
Dalby            33C
Stability         A
Convection     Dry convection to 10,000ft with cloud base of 9,500
Wind              NE @ 5kts

There may be some thin high cloud about but this is unlikely to affect convection.

Sunday 20 November 2011
Dalby            34C
Stability         A
Convection     Blue convection to 10,000ft - with some wispy cloud possible
Wind              N @ 5kts

There may be some thin high cloud about but this is unlikely to affect convection.

Weather for the weekend of 12 - 13 November 2011

2011-11-10T06:30:00.000+10:00

Updated 11/11/11

A high near Adelaide is moving slowly east and ridging up the east coast of the continent. It is expected to be NW of New Zealand on Sunday evening, but will maintain the east coast ridge into Monday. A trough will form behind the ridge. Whilst this will produce some instability ahead of the trough, thunderstorm activity is expected to be isolated and not severe (SLI around 0C and CAPE around 300J/kg

There has been no rain in the eastern Downs in the last 7 days, but a band from Surat to north of Roma received about 10mm.

Saturday 12 November 2011
Dalby           31C
Stability        B
Convection    Dry convection to 10,000ft with cloud base at 8,000ft
Wind             ENE @ less than 5 kts

There will be some high cloud about and there is the possibility of towering Cu and isolated thundery showers.

Sunday 13 November 2011
Dalby            32C
Stability         B
Convection    Dry convection to 10,000ft with cloud base at 8,500ft
Wind             NNE @ less than 5 kts

There will be some high cloud about and there is the possibility of towering Cu and isolated thundery showers.

Weather for the weekend of 5 - 6 November 2011

2011-11-03T06:34:00.000+10:00

Updated 4/11/11

A high lies over Melbourne and is moving slowly east whilst ridging up the east coast. It is expected to be off the central NSW coast by Sunday evening.

The high will dominate the weekend, with winds shifting from easterly through to the north by late Sunday, bringing the chance of some coastal showers.

A mass of high cloud is moving east across the continent and is responsible for the predicted shading of the ground and high level moisture seen on the soundings.

Last week's rain is still dominating the 7 day rainfall figures - Jondaryan had 13mm and Dalby 35mm with heavier falls out to the west. However, by the weekend this will be over 7 days in the past and should not pose a problem, except possibly in lower lying areas where there had been heavier rain.

Saturday 5 November 2011
Dalby            28C
Stability         A
Convection     Dry convection to 8,500ft with cloud base 7,500ft
Wind              NE @ 10kts

There will be fairly thick high cloud about that could well shade the ground, suppressing convection.

Sunday 6 November 2011
Dalby            28C
Stability         A
Convection     Dry convection to 8,500ft possibly with cloud base 8,000ft
Wind              NE @ 5kts

There will be high cloud and mid-level cloud about that may shade the ground, suppressing convection.

Weather for the weekend of 29 - 30 October 2011

2011-10-27T06:52:00.000+10:00

Updated 28/10/2011

A high off SE Australia, which has ridging up the east coast, and another off SW Australia are slowly moving east whilst most of the continent lies under generally slack pressure with associated troughs. One of these moved through SE Queensland on Wednesday night but several others lie approximately north/south distributed across the continent. At this stage, it appears unlikely that the first of these troughs will move into SE Queensland over the weekend, but ahead of the next trough there will be sufficient instability for thunderstorms to form on Sunday.

Dalby has received nearly 30mm of rain since Wednesday. The area west of Dalby received more - with Miles totaling 50mm. Jondaryan has only received 9mm.

Saturday 29 October 2011
Dalby             29C
Stability        B
Convection     Dry convection to 8,000ft with cloud base 6,000ft
Wind              Northerly @ less than 5kts

There will be high cloud about. Towering Cu may form and, if so, some may produce the occasional light thundery shower (CAPE 500j/kg and SLI -1C).

Sunday 29 October 2011
Dalby             30C
Stability         A
Convection     Dry convection to 8,000ft with cloud base 6,000ft
Wind              Northerly @ less than 5kts

There will be fairly thick high cloud about that could adversely affect convection. Towering Cu will form and some of these will mature into fully developed thunderstorms (CAPE is 900 J/kg and SLI -3).

Weather for the weekend of 22 - 23 October 2011

2011-10-20T06:25:00.000+10:00

Updated 21/10/2011

A high off the central NSW coast is moving only very slowly east south east and this feature will dominate the weather in south east Queensland for the weekend. It is directing an easterly flow over the area, which will mean occasional coastal showers, but these are unlikely to cross the divide.

There has been 22mm of rain at Jondaryan and 34mm at Dalby in the last 7 days. This was associated with last Saturday's storms and no rain is currently forecast for the weekend. There could still be wet some areas, but these should be confined to poorly drained and low lying ground.

There will be high cloud about and this could significantly shade the ground on both days.

Saturday 22 October 2011
Dalby                 28C
Stability            A
Convection       Dry convection to 8,500ft with cloud base 8,000ft
Wind               E @ 5-10kts

There will be high cloud about, quite thick at first but gradually thinning later in the day.

Sunday 23 October 2011
Dalby                28C
Stability            A
Convection       Dry convection to 9,500 ft with cloud base 8,500ft
Wind                 E @ 5-10kts

There will be high cloud about all day.

Outlook for Kiwi week

DDSC is hosting visitors from NZ for the week, so here's a look ahead at how things look, meteorologically speaking.

High pressure with rising temperatures will continue to dominate through the week until a trough, with associated storms, passes through on Friday.

The SLI moves into slightly negative territory on Wednesday and a bit more on Thursday, but with the CAPE below 500 J/kg thunderstorms are unlikely - butthere could be isolated thundery showers.

On Friday, the CAPE rises to 900 J/kg with an SLI of -3C - so thunderstorms are probable but they should not be severe.

Convection heights (under reasonable cumulus) should gradually increase through the week, with Thursday looking like the peak soaring day at this stage.

Weather for the weekend of 15 - 16 October 2011

2011-10-13T07:18:00.000+10:00

Updated 14/10/2011

A high is centred in the Tasman, moving south east whilst another is entering the Bight. Between these is an area of slack pressure in which a trough has formed, spanning the continent. This is expected to move into SE Queensland on Saturday, but appears to stall and dissipate on Sunday without crossing the coast.

There was significant rain in last weekends (unexpectedly) strong trough system, with most of the eastern Downs receiving 25mm or more in the last seven days. Yesterdays rain produced 20mm at Dalby, but only 7mm at Oakey. The eastern Downs may have a light shower on Friday, but it now appears that the weekend trough will not be as active as suggested yesterday, with only about 15mm forecast by NOAA for Saturday. There could be some light thundery showers on Sunday.

Saturday 15 October 2011
Dalby              25C
Stability          A
Convection     Dry convection to 5,000 ft with cloud base of 4,500ft
Wind               North westerly @ 10 to 15 kts

NOAA has the SLI at -6C and the CAPE at 1500J/Kg. This means SEVERE thunderstorm activity is very likely.

Sunday 16 October 2011
Dalby              27C
Stability          B
Convection     Dry convection to 8,000 ft with cloud base of 7,000ft
Wind               South westerly @ 10 kts

Thunderstorms or thundery showers are possible, with a CAPE of 600 J/Kg and an SLI of -2C.

Weather for the weekeend of 8 - 9 October 2011

2011-10-06T06:43:00.003+10:00

Updated 7/10/2011

A trough lies from southern WA, north and then through the NT and back south through Queensland. The trough will move quite slowly, probably crossing the coast late on Saturday. This will bring thundery showers and occasional thunderstorms to SE Queensland on Saturday.

The past seven days saw about 5 mm of rain in most of the downs, with higher falls west of Chinchilla (about 9mm) and towards Goondiwindi (20mm).Rain on Thursday brought about 7mm to Oakey and Dalby. It is thus likely that some paddocks will remain wet over the weekend and there may be some supression of convection.

At this stage, NOAA is forecasting about 5mm of rain from the showers/thunderstorms on Saturday.

Saturday 8 October 2011
Dalby            26C
Stability        B
Convection   Dry convection to 10,500ft with cloud base of 7,500ft
Wind             WSW @ 5 - 10kts

Showers from towering Cu and rain from Cb are likely, with a CAPE of over 400 J/Kg and an SLA 0f -2C.

Sunday 9 October 2011
Dalby            28C
Stability        A
Convection   Dry convection to 8,500ft with some wispy cloud possible
Wind             W @ 10 kts

There is likely to be high cloud about that could shade the ground, suppressing convection.

Weather for the weekend of 1 - 2 October 2011

2011-09-29T08:45:00.001+10:00

Please note there will be NO update on Friday 30 September as I am flying at the State competition in Warwick.

A trough is bringing extensive rain to central/northern NSW with lower falls in southern Queensland. This will clear the coast on Thursday night, bringing a southerly flow to SE Qld for Friday and the weekend.

Whilst the trough is bringing widespread rain to south eastern Queensland, falls are only expected to be 10mm or less across the Downs, but with higher falls to the south. This amount of rain is unlikely to suppress convection or cause out landing issues except in low lying areas.

Saturday 1 October 2011
Dalby             25C
Convection     Dry convection to 16,500ft with cloud base 10,000
Stability          A
Wind              NW @ 10kts

There is a real potential for over development, but despite this, the day has significant promise. Once the temperature passes 20C, convection height will increase rapidly from 3,000ft and convection should continue through 4pm local beneath the clouds.

Sunday 2 October 2011

Dalby             22C

Convection     Dry convection to 8,500ft with cloud base 8,000

Stability          A
Wind              SW @ 10kts

Again, there is potential for over development, but this is unlikely to be a major problem as the clouds are quite thin.

Weather for the weekend of 24 -25 September 2011

2011-09-22T11:44:00.002+10:00

Updated 24/9/2011

A high is moving through the Bight and should be off the Vic/NSW border on Sunday night. A further high is moving slowly off the SE Queensland coast. A trough will form between the highs on Friday in far western Queensland. The southern end of this trough will curl east and north on Friday night and into Saturday, bringing unstable weather and showers (possibly with thunder) on Saturday and Sunday. Some of these showers could be locally heavy, but with a CAPE of only 330J/kg and a Standard Lifted Index of only -2C, these are more likely to be towering Cu than fully developed Cb.

There has been no rain on the Downs in the last seven days, but the showers over the weekend could bring falls totaling about 5mm in places.

Saturday 24 September 2011
Dalby              28C
Stability          C
Convection     Dry convection to 10,500ft with cloud base at 8,000ft
Wind               SW @ 5kts

Following the saturated adiabatic lapse rate lines (SALR - the curved dashed lines), cloud tops will be about 25,000ft - but there could be some high cloud about as well.

Sunday 25 September 2011
Dalby              28C
Stability          B
Convection    Dry convection to 12,000ft with cloud base 8,000ft
Wind              NW @ 5kts

The predicted cloud tops are about 30,000ft, which suggests Sunday's showers will be more intense than Saturday's.

A look ahead at the week of
Monday 26 September - Saturday 1 October 2011

Monday will see the trough clearing the coast and some coastal showers are possible. Winds will gradually shift to north and north westerly over Tuesday to Thursday bringing increasing temperatures for the week. A further trough will be approaching SE Queensland over Fri-Saturday - but it's arrival time and effect are as yest a bit hard to forecast. At present, it looks as if the trough will be quite weak and have little impact - but that could of course change!

In general, Sunday (depending on the showers) will be good, but convection height will fall on Monday, gradually increasing during the week to potentially a really good day on Friday.

Weather for the weekend of 17 - 18 September 2011

2011-09-15T06:44:00.000+10:00

Updated 16/9/11

As yet, the summer weather pattern has to arrive, but we are starting to see increasing temperatures and the southward movement of the monsoon is visible well to Australia's north.

A high centred in southern Queensland is moving east and is expected to be off the SE Queensland coast on Sunday. This will result in very light winds over the weekend.

In the last seven days, there has been about 15mm of rain over the Downs, but by the weekend this should not suppress convection except in low lying areas.

Saturday 17 September 2011
Dalby:            28C
Stability:      C
Convection:   Blue convection to 10,000ft
Wind:             SW @ 5 kts

There could be some very high thin cloud about, but it is most unlikely this will significantly affect convection.

Sunday 18 September 2011
Dalby:            29C
Stability:        B
Convection:   Dry convection to 10,000ft with cloud base 9,000ft
Wind:             W @ 5kts

There will be some high cloud about but it should remain thin and thus not significantly shade the ground.

Weather for the weekend of 10 - 11 September 2011

2011-09-08T06:54:00.000+10:00

Updated 9/9/2011

A slow moving high is entering the Bight and will not approach Spence Gulf until Tuesday. Meanwhile, a trough will move through SE Queensland today, bringing perhaps 12mm of rain to the Downs. The trough will deepen to a cold front on Friday as a low form off the NSW coast, bringing strengthening and cold southerly winds.

These winds will remain strong from the southwest on Saturday, bringing potential wave conditions to the Bunya mountains. Whilst the wind will be less strong strong on Sunday, it will be less constant with altitude, making mountain wave less likely.

Saturday 10 September 2011
Dalby             18C
Stability         A
Convection    blue convection to 8,500ft with some wispy cloud possible
Winds             SW @ 15kts

Winds will remain pretty constant in direction (within 20 degrees of the Bunya ridge) to 500hPa (20,000 ft) and also increasing in strength (or staying pretty constant). These conditions suggest wave could form on the Bunyas.

Saturday 10 September 2011
Dalby             18C
Stability         A
Convection    blue convection to 6,500ft
Winds            SW @ 10kts

Whilst remaining strong, the wind changes direction around 10,000ft and so mountain wave is unlikely. However, some shear wave is possible due to the directional shift.

Weather for the weekend of 3 - 4 September 2011

2011-09-01T06:34:00.000+10:00

Updated 2/9/2011

A high just east of Tasmania is moving slowly east and ridging up the east coast. This high will dominate through the weekend, bringing a fairly strong easterly flow with associated coastal showers. It is possible that one or two showers may cross the divide on to the Downs, particularly on Sunday. Sunday will also see high cloud about, which may, at times, be thick enough to shade the ground.

There has been some heavy rain on the Downs in the last seven days (principally last Saturday). This brought falls between 30 - 50 mm across the Downs, with 40mm falling at Oakey and 43mm at Roma. As this rain will be 7 days or more in the past by the weekend, the ground should have mostly dried out. However, there will be wet areas along creeks and in low lying areas that will remain unlandable and could suppress convection locally.

Saturday 3 September 2011
Dalby             22C
Stability         A
Convection    Dry convection to 8,000ft with cloud base of 6,500ft
Wind            ESE @ 10 kts

Sunday 4 September 2011
Dalby            22C
Stability        A
Convection   Dry convection to 8,500ft with cloud base of 6,500ft
Wind             E @ 10 kts

Weather for the weekend of 27 - 28 August

2011-08-25T06:44:00.001+10:00

Updated 26/8/2011

A trough is forming south from the Gulf, with a further trough forecast off the coast on Saturday. Rain is expected between Friday and Sunday nights as the troughs interact to form a low on the SE Queensland coast. The low should move away towards NZ quite quickly, but this may not happen until Sunday morning.

The coastal showers of the last few days have mainly not crossed the range, with only very light falls occurring in the last few days (Dalby 0.6mm). NOAA is forecasting about 15mm over the next couple of days, mostly on Saturday, but some clearing showers are possible on Sunday. It should however be flyable on Sunday, particularly later in the day.

Saturday 27 August 2011
Dalby               21C
Stability           C
Convection      Dry convection to 4,5000ft with cloud base 4,000ft
Wind                N @ 5-10 kts

Sunday 28 August 2011
Dalby               23C
Stability           B
Convection    Dry convection to 6,500ft with cloud base 5,000ft
Wind                SW @ 5-10 kts

Weather for the weekend of 20 - 21 August

2011-08-18T06:54:00.003+10:00

Updated 19/8/2011

A shallow low has formed off the central NSW coast, which will move only slowly away from the continent as it fills over the next say or so. A high over SA is moving east and south, which will push the low north over the weekend. Combined with the high to the south, this will bring a strong easterly flow with associated coastal showers, some of which may cross the divide on to the Downs on Sunday.

There has bee some rain in the last seven days, falling almost exclusively south of a line from Oakey to Dirranbandi. Most falls were below 5mm, but Oakey received 13mm. Thursday's rain saw patches of 1mm falling in our area (Dalby 0.6mm).

Saturday 20 August 2008
Dalby                21C
Stability            B
Convection       Dry convection to 8,000ft with cloud base at 7,000ft
Winds               S @ 5 - 10kts

Sunday 21 August 2008
Dalby                20C
Stability            A
Convection       Dry convection to 8,000ft with cloud base at 6,000ft
Winds               SE @ 10-15kts

Weather for the weekend of 13 - 14 August 2011

2011-08-11T07:02:00.003+10:00

Updated 12/8/2011

A large, slow moving high lies southwest of Tasmania. A trough is expected to develop in far western Queensland on Saturday but remain practically stationary, bringing slightly unstable conditions and possibly some showers to its east before it dissipates well to the west on Monday.

About 1mm of rain has fallen in the eastern Downs over the last seven days. Yesterday's light showers on the departing trough were so light as to be practically non-existent!

Saturday 13 August 2011
Dalby:            22C
Stability:       C
Convection: Blue convection to 7,000ft with some thin cloud possible
Wind:             E @ 5kts or less

Sunday 14 August 2011
Dalby:            22C
Stability:        D
Convection:   Dry convection to 9,000ft with cloud base of 7,000ft
Wind:             calm

Weather for the weekend of 6 -7 August 2011

2011-08-04T07:05:00.004+10:00

Updated 5/8/2011

A high off the northern NSW coast is moving slowly east. A trough behind the high is forecast to spawn a low at its southern tip on the southern NSW coast. The trough is very active, with rain falling from central SA through to Tasmania, but its northern tip is only at the latitude of the Queensland border and does not appear to be extending north.

NOAA is now forecasting no rain on Saturday and only 2mm on Sunday. It is possible that the northern activity tip will be south of the Downs by Sunday.

The low that will form is shallow and not forecast to deepen and thus the southerly winds in Queensland will remain light.

There has been no rain on the Downs in the last seven days.

Saturday 6 August 2011
Dalby                  22C
Stability              B
Convection        Dry convection to 8,500 ft with cloud base of 6,500 ft
Wind                  N @ 5 kts or less

There is possibility of over development.

Sunday 7 August 2011
Dalby                 23C
Stability             B
Convection        Dry convection to 9,000 ft with cloud base of 6,000 ft
Wind                  NW @ 5 - 10kts

Weather for the weekend 30 - 31 July 2011

2011-07-28T06:54:00.001+10:00

A high off central NSW is moving only very slowly east. SE Queensland will remain under its influence through the weekend, with an easterly flow producing coastal showers. It is possible that an occasional shower may cross the Divide.

Over the last seven days, there has been no rain on the Downs.

Saturday 30 July 2011
Dalby:              21C
Stability:          B
Convection:    Dry convection to 9,000ft with cloud base 8,000ft
Wind:              Easterly @ 5kts

Sunday 31 July 2011
Dalby:              21C
Stability:          C
Convection:    Dry convection to 8,000ft with cloud base 7,000ft.

Wind: SW @ 5 kts

Weather for the weekend 23 - 24 July 2011

2011-07-21T06:49:00.002+10:00

A low off the mid NSW coast that has been causing strong winds through SE Queensland is moving slowly east but its slowly reducing effects will be felt though the weekend. A high is moving through the west of the continent and is expected to be on the coast of the Bight by Sunday evening. Winds will remain fresh for Saturday but will be light by Sunday evening as the high pressure spreads to the coast.

Last weekend, between 6 and 10 mm of rain fell through the eastern Downs. Falls were slightly higher (15 - 20 mm) west from Miles.

It is possible that a very occasional light shower will be carried on the strong winds to the Downs through until Saturday.

Saturday 23 July 2011
Dalby:            20C
Stability:        B
Convection: Dry convection to 9,000 ft with cloud base 7,500 ft
Wind:             S @ 10 kts

Sunday 24 July 2011
Dalby:            20C
Stability:        B
Convection: Dry convection to 8,500ft with cloud base 7,500 ft
Wind:             S @ 5 kts