the Yuppie Pig

Reverse Rotation

2009-05-12T20:44:00.000-07:00

It seems like every day moves in the other direction. One day the market falls, yet tech lags, and then tech rockets up, with the market falling - and who knows what other sectors are doing...

We do see to be at some type of rotation again, with all of the secondary issues being put onto the market. Overall, these make many of the companies actually more stable by de-leveraging their balance sheets. In many cases, it takes bankruptcy off the table which is good for individual stocks. However, now that the flock of issues are underway, and the stocks have risen, these new issues do indeed dilute future earnings and increase the supply of stock. All things being equal, this is bearish. In the very short term (next few weeks) this should keep a lid on the rally as supply gets mopped up. Not only that, I actually expect weakness from new issues at this point in the face of recent news were secondaries cause rallies. If that's the case, where does money rotate into? Clearly, we are not in the mid to late cycle stocks, and merely exiting a depression. If that's the case, I suspect we will get a reverse rotation out of early cycle names back into defensive names.

Here's PNRA - casual dining has been leading the market since Jan, and this is one of the leaders. Until recently, anyways.

LVS is another consumer spending name and was one of the latter to take leadership. It has yet to breakdown, but appears ready to do so, if this reverse rotation thesis plays out.

On the flip side, some defensive names have been holding up in the past week and are doing rather well.

KO is another. Just look at the slew of names from early cycle and defensive, and you'll get a pretty good picture.

Treasury and High Yield bonds

2009-05-07T21:17:00.000-07:00

An interesting day today. The high yield bonds broke the uptrend which suggests to me a deeper correction. Treasury yields also spiked which I believe is returning to its normal pattern as an inflationary (and not risk aversion) indicator.

A slow roll-over

2009-05-03T22:07:00.000-07:00

The market seems to be slowly rolling over. Overall, this is somewhat constructive, giving the market some time to digest its gains. 820 and 780 remain my pull back targets but we'll see what happens this week.

A lot depends on the financials this week. Regardless of what happens, once that's done with, it will likely be time to buy the winners and sell the losers; however it plays out. I started small positions in FMER and OCN; both of which are holding up well. The BKX has formed into a tight pattern, so a break from this should be telling.

I'll also note that the high yield bonds still have not broken their uptrend. I suspect that for the market to top out, we will have to see a break of this uptrend.

We also got a nice break in the Ag commodities which should give some lift to the sector.

Still going

2009-04-29T23:03:00.000-07:00

Wow, this market just doesn't stop moving up. Today, we got a break of that 875 area, but failed to close over it. What started 2 months ago, with the financials, has spread over into multiple rallies in various sectors. There was a lot of interesting moves today; some intuitive; some not.

WMT was up nicely, stating that discretionary item spending was up for their stores.

SQNM - in after hours.... WOW!

Coal names - I can't quite figure out what the rally was for.

I also started a stake in OCN in a "can't beat em - join em trade" Despite this, I remain bearish on the market in the short term but I'll concede that I don't know when this run is going to end.

Some of the infrastructure stocks are also looking interesting to me as part of a second derivative/thesis play. Specifically, FLR for me. The rally has broadened enough that money can just rotate around giving time for individual sectors to base (like the financials are doing now) and for others to move higher, before swapping roles again. Sooner or later, the music stops, but until then, let's just enjoy the party with a foot out the door.

Grinding

2009-04-27T20:56:00.000-07:00

Another volatile day. This market is really starting to grind up and down. For most of the month, the S&P500 has been skipping rope around the 845 price level. To me, this does appear to be the latter stages of froth in a bull run where the most speculative of names make their moves.

My targets for this pull back are 820 and 780, but if we make new highs, I think it could potentially trap a pile of bears.

Really? Seven Weeks?

2009-04-26T21:55:00.000-07:00

Seven weeks. That's pretty much how long its been going for. No sense in looking and fundamentals, technicals - just the animal spirits.

The SPX is right off its highs and pushing against major resistance in the 870 area. I had incorrectly thought that the market began to roll over on Thursday, but Friday's push above a corrective channel drawn out has to make me reconsider the pattern. However, as I type this, the SPX futures are down a whopping 16 points. I can't see exactly why, but I can see that considerable commodities futures are off. (something about China's stimulus not getting through to earnings?) We'll see if this is just another shallow dip that is snapped up soon enough. I'll say overbought again, but every time I say that, I get gored by the bull.

Here's a perfect example of treading, yet taking on water. Each rally I short, and take a partial position off, only to have the remaining position run me over - each time FASTER than the previous! Rinse and repeat. I'll concede that the credit market is loosening up which will help this sector, and that creditors MUST be more flexible on existing covenants/terms. But this sector has excessive capacity in a new world where personal savings/balance sheets have been torn to shreds.

To add frustration to it all, some of my long positions (MCD and WMT) - consistent growers with stable earnings and cash flows lag the index. Clearly, the defensive names are out of style and money is fleeing quality for the casino's as quickly as possible.

See what I mean? I don't know about you, but when one's life savings is destroyed, a trip to Vegas only mentally helps for the weekend.

Perhaps all those winnings can be spent on new Harley's!

Sector rotation? Okay - noted. But really.. Seven weeks? Something doesn't add up. Net short, and feeling every bit of the Bull's horns.

Stocks and Bonds

2009-04-23T20:55:00.000-07:00

It's interesting to see how the stock market has moved with the bond market; particularly the high yield, corporate bonds given the credit crisis we've just been through. One of the reasons I think we will not re-test the lows is that the credit conditions are actually much better. Corporate bond have rallied substantially giving companies a chance to re-capitalize.

We can see that both bottomed at the same time, and the high yield corporate bonds have been off to the races along with the market since. Only in the past few days has it shown any weakness, but is still within the uptrend.

If a correction plays out in the market and the SPX pulls back, then we should also see a confirming move in the HYG. This hasn't happened yet, but something to look for.

This Correction

2009-04-22T23:06:00.001-07:00

This correction seems to be underway with a late day sell-off. The fundamentals are better (for stock prices, not the economy) than they were at the recent bottom. For that reason, I don't see a re-test of that low and am expecting more of an orderly pull back over the next couple of weeks. Perhaps it forms a sort of a bull flag in choppy trading. My first short term target is the 820 level where I could take in some shorts and open longs again.

Ultimately, I think this correction takes us down to 775-800 area. This would be up to a 50% re-tracement of the move up and form a nice right shoulder on an inverse H&S pattern.

More Chop & Charts

2009-04-21T21:05:00.000-07:00

Huge moves in some sectors such as Commercial REITs. Talk about manic!

I'd like to see some more weakness on this pullback to pick up some copper (aka china) thesis exposure. As per usual, CAF took off and left me in the dust, so I'll have to take an arms length proxy position with FCX.

I also like the chart of FLR, as some industrial type names are getting some attention. Perhaps we get a bit of a money flow rotation into these names.

Broken Wedge

2009-04-20T21:16:00.000-07:00

It finally came - today the SPX broke the bear wedge forming over the past several weeks. I'm expecting some further downside, but I think we will not see a real re-test of the lows. It still remains a trading environment so this will be a dip I'll look to get long.

IYR just flips back and forth in some huge moves. I'll cover this short once the 30/60 minute chart firms up and look to re-short individual names later on.

Some the Ag names got hit hard along with the entire commodity complex. I closed out my MON position as it broke down, but the selling after that point seemed rather weak given the overall market. I'm planning to get back into this name once the selling subsides, and DBA holds firm.

CAF - the China ETF is something I wanted to start trading for the longest time. But it typically has gotten away from me. I'll give it another shot once the chart settles down.

I added to a short here, and in WFMI (same chart) as a short on the broader market. So far so good, but another day like today, and I'll cover.

A mix of longs and shorts

2009-04-19T21:41:00.000-07:00

It's a grueling market between fundamentals and technicals. Just taking it one day at a time right now. The bear wedge continues to form on the 60 minute chart and the market is quite overbought. But that doesn't mean much in this market. I have a mix of positions that I hope will outperform over the next 8 hour;)

I started a short on BBBY as this failed to break out.

Similar for WFMI.

I started a position in MON as this chart looks like its firming up again. I'm presuming that the sector rotation will shift to some later cycle names as the early cycle names should at least be tired.

Still holding an IYR short, but I have to admit that if the government is going to just dole out money, this is no longer a sector short - and perhaps stock specific shorts.

Long IMA on this break.

Short and Longs

2009-04-15T21:41:00.000-07:00

Huge reversal and the end of the day! The 60 minute chart did break down, but I have to second guess its strength, with the end of the day move. A bit more, breaking back up, would quickly negate this pattern. I've got plenty of charts on the long and short side today.

I started a short here with a stop above the day's high. Any strength here is going to kick me out. This is basically my short side play on the market. I've swapped to the 30 minute chart on this as I've realized that this name has far too much speed/beta to be using the 60 minute chart.

My short here is doing well. Moved the stop down a bit.

QCOM looks like it kinda broke down, but there is a downtrend that could give a buy signal. We'll see how GOOG does tomorrow, which might have some effect on the tech sector.

I still like the Ag space. A break of this little bull flag should point higher.

Everyday, I feel like I'm doing battle with this sector. It runs up, I short some, take a gain, and move my cost basis higher. Then it runs up again. Rinse and repeat. Also swapping to the 30 minute chart on this one. It just moves way too fast.

BP is forming an interesting pattern here. Could go either way, but I'm looking at it for the long side.

I'm a long term gold bug, but right now, I think its a short it if it breaks here.

The bear wedge continues

2009-04-14T21:48:00.000-07:00

A tough day on the market, but the SPX is still holding in this bear wedge pattern. It's now sitting right on the bottom of the wedge and seemed to close weak on the day. I'll add, that the futures are off 5 points, so its likely we will open lower and out of the wedge.

I thought the GS numbers were decent, but it was perhaps the most anticipated earnings beat - hence the run up before, and the sell-off after. The price action here, makes me pretty bearish over the next few days at the least, as it seems like every piece of good news are priced into the stocks. It might now be a "sell the news" market for the upcoming earnings. It's all priced in... The BKX is showing this. INTC is also trading down - there goes the TECH thesis? I really think the market is rolling over this time, to a pull back more meaningful than the previous ones.

I started a short in WFMI again as it broke out of the wedge for a trade on the broader market.

I also topped off my short in IYR this morning, and quickly took a gain on that portion of the trade late in the day. Still short, and looking to close out when the 60 minute rolls up - where ever that may be.

I also closed LQD as it hit my target. Easy trade, little profit... I'll take it in this market.

I'm staring at WYNN again as this has pushed up even higher that the high a few days ago. Looking back, I was really lucky with this short. Do I want to double down? Thinking about it, but I want to see it, and the market show some weakness.

For some other names on the short side, I'm looking back at HOG, but earnings are up shortly, BBY, and BBBY. (liking BBBY the most) TAN also interesting.

The market keeps on chuggin'

2009-04-13T22:49:00.000-07:00

The SPX eek out another gain, but this market is looking tired. The chart has clearly formed a bearish wedge and the MACD is starting to roll over, but has yet to give a sell signal.

Outside of index watching, there are some other interesting charts. I might play these assuming volume and momentum is there.

IMA looks interesting with a break out and measured move to 35.

MSCC could make a quick move to 14, on a break over 12.5

Similar pattern. Break at 20, target 25.

If the market starts to roll over, WFMI is again looking like a potential short with a stop above the recent highs. This chart has started to lag recently giving it a safe short entry.

Borrow at 0%; lend at >0%

2009-04-12T21:52:00.000-07:00

Yep, that's the secret to making money! Have to admit, its a great business. What happens if the amount lent is not repaid you ask? Backstop it with taxpayer money!

The SPX had another huge rally today off the pre-announcement by WFC, which is perhaps one of the better banks. The earnings power vs the write downs were somewhat of a wash. But write downs are one off events, while government handouts occur into perpetuity!

All kidding aside, the market is pushing up into an area with major supply. Even after ths huge run, It's hard to ignore the changes in "company fundamentals" - not to be confused with the economy. It's actually easy in this market for mainstreet to get the beat down, while wallstreet racks it up from taxpayer handouts. Is it fair? No. Is it a necessary evil? That's a debate for another time. The 60 min chart is back into overbought territory, so while I want a mix of long's and shorts, it's hard to add longs right now. I'm not one to chase markets up in a recession, but I'll concede it has been the right thing to do in the past 4 weeks or so.

I used wed's sell off to cut some short exposure. Specifically, I cut ANF on weds, and WYNN on the thursday open. Both turned out to be the right move. What wasn't the right move was not cutting all my shorts and longs!

I remained short a position in IYR. Despite taking 1/3 of the position off, this one still stung hard and wiped out the gains from WYNN. I'm debating if this sector is still a "sector short", or has it become an area where individual stock picks matter. Starting to believe the latter.

And to add insult to injury, my long position in WMT did not participate at all here. As recessionary names fall from grace as the perception of recovery makes its round, this isn't a name that is going to do well. Add to it, that I think the USD weakens here, which should be bearish for the company which imports from overseas. I had hoped it would close the gap, and came literally pennies from hitting my sell order, but alas, it was not to be. View on WMT - neutral.

I don't have any names in my sights right now as the market is at new highs, but not quite enough to short anything at the moment. I still think we are in a choppy market where both directions should be played.

Potential Trade Setups

2009-04-08T06:10:00.000-07:00

I like oil on the long side, but I want to see a break of support. Right now, its just a little too top heavy, but I want to be ready should the opportunity show up. 26 looks like a great place to try to start a position.

I also like tech, but im not sure what names to own, so I've got a broad sweep with SMH. I'm less concerned with a breakdown of support here, as SMH has not had a huge run (relative to some names), so I'll play this one with the 60 minute chart signals.

I want to avoid a lot of the US financials as there's just too much uncertainty. Canadian bank's are where its at. V, GS are interesting.

This looks like a short. I don't think this is going to break out to the upside, as solar is just too expensive.

I see pretty much every commodity coming off right now, but copper is holding in there. I just dont see this continuing to buck the trend. But is it China? Well, now the Baltic dry index is coming off, so there goes that thesis. And this is PCU, not FCX. Looking for this name to move back towards 15.

The pullback part 2

2009-04-07T19:51:00.000-07:00

The market appears to be pulling back in a rather orderly fashion, and I actually think it is discerning companies with some concept called fundamentals... strange.

The 60 minute chart of the SPX has worked off its overbought condition and is now neutral. I'm still treating this as a trading environment, and that we will not retest the lows.

I closed my position in ANF for a quick gain as I needed to reduce my short exposure. This name (compared to IYR and WYNN) had the most support just under these levels. I also think ANF is fundamentally stronger than IYR and WYNN.

IYR is working out quite nicely as a short. It's a volatile sector, where dilution sometimes makes stocks pop, and sometimes drop. To be fair, if the choice between chapter 11 or 50% dilution needs to be made, I suppose dilution should make the stocks rally. But it's failure to go bankrupt is definitely not a reason to be long. I actually cut a third of my short exposure late in the day to take some gains, but the 24 range is where my target is.

I landed a nice 21 with yesterday's opening short position. It's really pulled back nicely as the squeeze had ended. There is some support coming up, so I'm looking to close this one out very soon.

Despite being positioned bearish, I think this pullback is going to be somewhat shallow, but I'll let the 60 minute chart be my guide. I still like the Canadian banks, and Monsanto. I think the commodities sector is going to come under pressure so I want to see these names quite a bit lower. I'm just not ready to pull the trigger here yet. SMH is another potential long, and TAN is a potential short.

These aren't early cycle stocks

2009-04-06T20:24:00.000-07:00

I got stopped out of HOG as it made new highs this morning as I guess everyone has money for new motorcycles. I just don't see this as an early cycle name. It's more of a late cycle excess consumerism name. Either way, stopped out for now.

I started a short on WYNN right at the end of the day, as gambling is definitely not early cycle! This looks like massive short covering, and its now right up against resistance. I'm willing to take some pain up to 33ish.

And IYR - just not early cycle. They're still closing down stores and consolidating. This doesn't help commercial real estate.

Ok, ANF is early cycle. I'm short this name, and will cover on a break higher.

I'm also looking at a slew of names to buy on a dip so despite my bearish views on all the above, there are things that interest me.

The Week Ahead

2009-04-05T22:25:00.000-07:00

Clearly, the easy long side money has been made at these levels. We could actually see a stretch move on the SPX up to 950, and bounce around the 850 +/- 100 points. 850 looks like a skewer through a rotating pig. But for the week ahead, I dipped my foot into the short waters yet again, as the 60 minute chart looks like it could roll over, and some of these heavily shorted sectors have rocketed up hard! Commercial REITS were up big, so I added some short exposure in that, and ANF/HOG at the end of the day. I've got stops just above the recent highs, but we'll see what happens tomorrow morning. I see the futures up 4.5 points.

Some sectors that I like, and will look to get into on a pullback, include Ag, oil (with a decent pull back), metals, select financials and tech.

Back to the playbook

2009-04-02T22:00:00.000-07:00

Another huge day for the market - clearly, a major move for the early cycle stocks. If this is the road map the big fund managers are going to take, we should not see new lows in the retailers, financials, or tech stocks. Due to my view that the consumer; while not dead, is quite crippled as they struggle to rebuild their balance sheets as the aging demographic heads into retirement. This actually lends itself to being more bearish "older demographic" consumer discretionary spending items. I'm thinking of shorting HOG again once it rolls over along with the market.

The market itself, I believe, will not test new lows. That is not an endorsement for much higher prices, but merely a feeling of stabilization in the short term, followed by higher inflation (which also inflates stocks). This would be similar to the 2003 jobless recovery. It seems like history, in this regard, is repeating itself. As inflation begins to show itself as the world economy grows, I suspect gold will be a big winner. Just not yet... I do not think we are in an inflationary environment, and recent commodities strength is due to supply side issues as firms cut production, and minor spurts on buying pressure from emerging markets create short term spikes in specific commodity prices.

I continue to be bearish Commercial REITs. Too much dilution, and plenty of maturing debt coming up. Also, this sector has acted horribly in this recent rally off the lows. I'm going to use this run to rebuild shorts which will offset some of the "buy the dips" I do, in other areas, namely in banking, tech and commodities. There's plenty of supply at the 29 level.

So im just waiting for the 60 minute chart to roll over. Or i might not wait.

Back to the theme of consumer spending... to play a roll over in 60 minute chart, I'm considering shorting SBUX again, along with ANF. Both look like there is plenty of resistance overhead viewable on the daily chart.

Taking a step back, and evaluating

2009-04-01T21:47:00.000-07:00

We're in another range from 780 to 830. I'm taking a step back to try to evaluate all that is going on. Governments of the world are flooding the financial system of freshly minted cash, which is offsetting the deflationary/credit impaired environment we're in. It's no wonder that gold seems to have trouble moving in one direction or another. We're also seeing horrible headline news in earnings, jobs, etc, offset with expectations on improving credit conditions to help companies. Add in uncertainty with the financials, and the potential for the US consumer to begin a secular retrenchment towards savings. There's certainly a lot going on. The VIX remains above 40, underscoring the level of uncertainty in this market. The futures market is up 12 points on some expectation on easing of mark to market accounting rules. Oh yeah - add in random government announcements to the mix!

Because of this uncertainty and swings from hope to reality, I'm leaning towards trying to keep a fairly neutral portfolio. I'll sell when the 60 minute is overbought, and cover and go long when its oversold. The question now, is what stocks?

With a quick gap down this morning, I closed out all of my shorts except for IYR, which I actually want to build. After all said and done, the slew of my shorts actually netted me a slight gain, but with much worry. In the end, ANF was the only losing trade of the bunch, with the others giving very marginal gains. What a difference 8-16 hours would have made in these positions! ANF, like SBUX, HOG and WFMI all have corrected and now look ready to move up in the short term. I just don't have conviction in these names. In fact, they still look like shorts to me over the next few weeks.

The BKX is forming into a symmetrical flag formation. I might play a break of this pattern in either direction.

I've also got a position in LQD which has a nice yield, and some trading potential.

Depending on how credit spreads play out, HYG looks once again interesting. I tried to start a position in this back in early March, but it ran too quickly for me to get a position. Now it's pulled back and looks like a good way to play a potential loosening of credit,

And with all the cross currents, gold looks a little confused here. Yes, all this stimulus is inflationary... but when? The chart looks good, and perhaps is breaking out of this pattern. But for some reason, the USD remains strong, so its hard to bet on the metal without some type of catalyst.

Some gold stocks look interesting here as well.

Upcoming Trades

2009-03-31T20:21:00.000-07:00

It continues to be a trader's market, so I'll continue with trying to find some ways to make trades, with a smattering of fundamental reasoning. The 60 minute chart worked off its overbought condition and has now turned up. It's actually pretty neutral at this point, with the MACD just below zero. However, the 5 minute and the 15 minute charts are pointing down, so we should see some more weakness tomorrow. Futures are down 10 points, but let's see what happens tomorrow.

I'm still short positions in IYR, ANF, SBUX, HOG. Long LQD and WMT.

I'd like to rebuild my short in IYR in the 27-28 level. I'm still short a small position, but I remain bearish on this sector. There's likely a lot of supply above 28 so it makes it a low risk trade at that level. And a break lower, spells death for this sector.

Here's BNS again. I'd like this to break down towards 22, where I think it will hold. Perhaps we see this with some additional selling tomorrow, but I want to wait for the downtrend to break.

A continuing move in grains. Hopefully, we see some of the Ag names sell down.

Gold never took off the way people expected it to, after the most recent helicopter drop of cash. However, we only need the thesis to catch on again, and the metal gets a huge run. There's a nice bullish wedge forming, so I'll go long a break of the pattern. 93 and 95 are my short term targets.

I'm also looking at MA or V.

Looking for long positions

2009-03-30T22:09:00.000-07:00

The market had quite the pullback today, which at very least is constructive for a sustainable rally. I'm not expecting an immediate repeal of the rally as things have gotten better (at least for short term stock prices) in the past few weeks. Despite views on the "kick the can down the road" policy this government is taking, off-loading toxic assets off companies and onto the public, is indeed good for companies! - just not the tax payers.

As this pullback plays out, I'll be looking to take in pretty much all of my shorts and look to re-short on an oversold condition. The 60 minute chart has moved into neutral territory from being overbought with today's move down.

With that in mind, I'll be back to front running the market as it hops from thesis to thesis. Right now, the "oil had no fundamental reason for rising" thesis is in play, in stark contrast to last months, "china is buying oil" thesis. I'm neutral on oil until I see real signs of economic recovery, so I'll take the opportunity to buy oil down, and sell it into a thesis rotation that seems to occur every few weeks.

I expect this uptrend to be broken and a good chuck of the gains given back.

In a similar vein, I was looking for some confirmation that at least grains were holding up. It no longer trades lock step with oil, so a bounce off support here makes me consider buying some of the Ag names as they trade back down. I'm going back to Monsanto, and possibly Mosaic. I remain somewhat weary of Potash for the next little while.

Continuing on the search for long positions, I'm back with the Canadian banks. I'd like BNS to break down here, and find some support at lower levels. This would just be a better entry point, and give some time for the 60 minute MACD to give a solid buy signal. Still waiting.

And here's DUG from last night. I sure wish it didn't gap up.

Next time...

Short oil trade

2009-03-29T21:07:00.000-07:00

I'm seeing that spot crude is down a dollar tonight, along with the market. Crude oil, and oil stocks have been doing well recently on the "re-flation" thesis. But in the short term, I dont think it has any merit for the move up. However, that said, long term, I remain bullish on a finite resource that essentially has no alternative. But for the trade...

The 60 minute MACD has rolled upwards, and DUG has broken the downtrend. I could see a quick move up to 27 and then to 29 in short order, especially if the market pauses or pulls back here. A stop could be used just under 24, where a tiny flag has formed.

I don't want to pile into a gap up on this name, but at the same time, I do want it to trade up a little, to break this tiny flag and get some momentum.

Major resistance above

2009-03-29T20:37:00.000-07:00

I see two basic outcomes over the next couple of weeks of equal probability.

1) The market continues to push higher into major resistance above from 825 to 875 where I see at best, upward moves are muted. There's likely a very large supply of stocks available from continually bouncing off this range from last October until the middle of Feb.

2) The market breaks down here and enters into a range between here and the lows. Due to the asymmetrical magnitudes of the two scenarios, I have to conclude that I believe it's best to be bearish here, at least until the market is able to digest these gains.

The MACD on the 60 minute chart has rolled over, but has yet to break the uptrend. Will it be this time?

The commercial REITs have really lagged in the "worst of breed" bounce here, so I'll want to push short again whenever the opportunity shows itself. I did manage to take some gains at 24, but I'll likely reload again, as long as the this name does not gap down. (note - the futures are down 9 points near midnight here, so i might not get that chance)

I went long LQD for a quick technical trade. I don't really have a short term bias on credit movements, nor the USD. For me, this is a short rallies, buy dips type market in a tight range. On one hand, the Government is tossing money to drive long rates down, but at the same time, I'm not convinced that the demand is there to soak up bad bank assets. (at least not at prices that banks would be willing to let them go) However, I remain bullish on Canadian Banks and will build a trading position on a pull back.

Also still short a range of "consumer spending" names such as ANF, SBUX, WMFI and HOG. So far, these names are stomping me into the ground, but I've kept position sizes small, limiting damage. I think these names head the way the market does, so I'm holding still, betting on my asymmetrical downside risk view.