Think More Thunk

Opportunity for UWB and Bluetooth in Consumer Electronics

2008-11-12T14:57:26-08:00

Today market uncertainty is in the forefront of public thought and concern. The possibility that the world will sink into a global depression is the most pessimistic of scenarios, but daily more probable. The effect of the uncertainty on the mentality of the consumer and thus on consumer electronics markets for wireless technologies becomes a very important factor for OEMs to consider as consumer spending is likely to decline in near term throughout most of the world.

Conversely, a decline in consumer spending is likely to strengthen the prospects of WiMAX, especially in developing nations and markets, as companies focus their efforts in areas that have a stronger likelihood of providing a return on investment.

Consumer electronics products being released with new features, such as UWB-based certified wireless USB, must provide a clear solution to a need in order to be successful in near term markets. It is unclear if removing cables from USB-based hard drives, printers, digital cameras, and laptop docking stations will be sufficient to drive consumer demand, yet the possibility remains of putting the market uptake of UWB in consumer markets in jeopardy.

At the same time it is likely that market uncertainty will continue to affect credit markets for the near term and create a ripple effect of caution on the part of industrial and commercial markets as they put off borrowing to install new wireless-based systems that advance the automation of infrastructure and back-end processing. This will likely delay the market uptake of wireless sensor networks for perhaps a longer term than consumer market delay in wireless uptake.

Overall, this is the time for companies to invest in research and development of the next emerging wireless technology in preparation for the inevitable recovery of markets. It is not a good time to release consumer products based on emerging wireless protocols that do not satisfy a clear need. In current market conditions it is not consumer delighters (additional features) that will mean successful strategy, but meeting consumer requirements at the lowest cost instead.

This new report focuses on the prospects for emerging wireless technologies in consumer markets. It analyzes the activities and developments of companies and alliances in light of current market conditions.

To read more about this report, click here

Don't Bet Against Ethernet

2008-11-01T15:15:54-07:00

This is something that a technically savvy friend advised me during a somewhat freeform discussion of wireless technologies a few years back. For a technology first described in 1977, Ethernet has proved a successful and long-lived technology supporting a broad range of applications with a broad range of performance capabilities.

An Israel based startup Valens Semiconductor recently announced a technology called HDBaseT described as "an innovative PHY that defines a new digital connectivity positioned to be the next HDMI" that is claimed to deliver HDMI 1.3b level performance over standard CAT5e cables at distances up to 100 meters.

Why is this interesting? And more importantly, what is an analyst firm specializing on wireless technologies doing writing about this?

There exist an ever expanding number of approaches utilizing wireless technologies to distribute high quality audio and video content. All of these approaches enjoy varying degrees of technical maturity, and for particular use cases, varying degrees of applicability. WTRS covers many of these technologies as part of our report portfolio:

WTRS Wireless Connectivity Technology Trends Report (published July 2008)
WTRS UWB Emerging Technology Report (published September 2008)
WTRS Wireless Technology Trends Report (published August 2008)

One of the incumbent solutions that must be displaced for these wireless approaches to be successful is traditional cabled infrastructure. This includes HDMI compliant cables, switches and signal boosters. HDBaseT provides another option for wired point to point connectivity that has applicability across a wide range of applications particularly those identified by MOCA, HomePlug and IEEE 802.11n, but while those technologies fail to support uncompressed video HDBaseT can support uncompressed Full-HD resolutions of up to 1080P, 60Hz, 48 bps. HDBaseT also has the ability to support video throughput equal to the HDMI 10.2Gbps, it can send it over a single 100m Cat5e cable.

HDBaseT also expands on the number of available services by making provision for the simultaneous delivery of uncompressed high definition video (HDMI 1.3b equivalent) Audio, Standard 100BaseT Ethernet, Power over Ethernet and support for converged controls (RS232, IR, USB low speed).

The basic underlying technology is described in US Patent application US2008/0187028, "Method and apparatus for communicating different types of data over a same network" as "A method of transmitting a data stream over a communication channel, the method comprising: providing symbol sets having different numbers of symbols; modulating data in the data stream that warrant different degrees of protection against noise onto symbols from symbol sets having different numbers of symbols, wherein which symbol set given data in the stream is modulated onto is independent of symbol sets onto which other data in the data stream is modulated onto; and transmitting the symbols."

It is important to remember that this is a wired point to point technology. The addition of the capability to switch signals will expand the architecture into areas similar to those familiar with networked media applications. In the near term we expect that this will see the most success in application areas without requirements to support mobility.

A Perspective on the Growth of Broadband Access and WiMAX Development

2008-10-24T15:30:33-07:00

President Bush said we'll all be connected by 2007, Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi said Democrats will ensure that will happen within 5 years. Certainly broadband coverage is growing rapidly, but the role of Government seems irrelevant to that "surge." Many technologies, explained and defined in this report, contribute. How they do so, and how quickly we get to "universal" broadband will be driven by usefulness, technological improvement, and (not least) market savvy companies.

Broadband access in the typical US household is on a steady growth trend. Fueled both by consumer demand for entertainment and communication as well as governmental regulatory and economic incentives, companies at all levels of the broadband services and infrastructure value chain are developing new technologies and enabling new services that will continue to push the US broadband market forward over the next 4-6 years.

The development of wired broadband network infrastructures in fact enable the deployment of wireless technologies. As an example, the development of fiber optic infrastructure offers a market driver for the introduction of WiMAX in developed countries.

There is substantial competition to WiMAX. Traditional, or wired, broadband technologies offer direct competition to fixed WiMAX and are being fueled by governmental encouragement on a global scale. The deployment of IPv6 on a global scale will mark a new era for humanity, at least those connected to technology. In order for various countries to participate in the increased security afforded as a byproduct of IPv6, the internet infrastructure technologies must be in place. These are marketed as broadband services to the consumer and the development of triple- and quadruple-play offerings which combine television broadcast, interactive content delivery, internet services, and voice communications capabilities. In this respect wired technologies such as optical fiber are in fact in competition with mobile WiMAX, in spite of the drastic difference in features each technology enables.

Comprehensive Wireless Market Evolution

2008-10-24T15:28:37-07:00

All signs point towards integration of as many wireless protocols as possible into one chipset and thus one device. This is driven in part by semiconductor companies responding to the constant commoditization of chips and elimination of margins by attempting to add as much value as possible into a single RF component and thus stave off the inevitable margin erosion. The massive and single-minded effort to integrate all available RF protocols into the same component is also encouraged by regulatory bodies such as the FCC, who envision an opportunity to charge spectrum licenses not just once, but perhaps multiple times. The US military is also stimulating the effort, in large part as a self-serving means to purchase off-the-shelf parts for its 'Connected Battlefield'.

The primary growth areas for wireless components over the next 5 years are Wireless Broadband and Wireless Sensor Networks. In the Wireless Broadband segment, key emerging protocols to evaluate include LTE, IEEE 802.11n, and IEEE 802.16e (colloquialized as 'mobile WiMax'). RFID, ZigBee, and IEEE 802.15.4 are the standard protocols likely to dominate the Wireless Sensor segment over the next 10 years. In fact, potential cross-over between RFID and ZigBee, as well as possible inclusion of the IEEE 802.15.4a low data rate with location specification into a coming evolution of ZigBee, create a tangled yet very powerful scenario for wireless sensor standards.

For more information about wireless market evolution see our report which analyzes the primary wireless technologies and protocols in place today as well as those emerging through the standardization process.

Will ZigBee Applications run over TCP/IP?

2008-10-24T15:05:02-07:00

Arch Rock Corporation submitted a draft specification to the IETF, describing an approach to implement "... a UDP/IP adaptation of the IEEE 802.15.4-based ZigBee Application Protocol that enables IP hosts to communicate using the application profiles and data models described by that protocol, over a wide range of links. This modified version of the ZigBee Application Protocol is named CAP (Compact Application Protocol), and it is intended to provide a complete stack of application profiles, data exchange, binding operations, security protocols, and discovery to IP-networked hosts and embedded devices. The protocol's domain of applicability includes IEEE 802.15.4-based 6LoWPAN devices, but also those on conventional wired and wireless links and emerging powerline communication networks."

CAP is intended to extend the scope of the ZigBee Application Profiles beyond IEEE 802.15.4 and ZigBee networks to encompass all IP based protocols. The CAP defines a methodology for devices to run CAP services on an UDP port, and exchange ZigBee application profile messages with any other IP device or server.

Why is it important to provide ZigBee application services on IP networks?

ZigBee Application Profiles are well designed for operation on devices with reduced or limited resources.

ZigBee Application Profiles assume the existence of an underlying ZigBee network only.

With the addition of real-world requirements such as support for mobility, longer range, or integration into an existing IP-based network, a ZigBee-only network may not prove optimal.

Presently this type of interoperability with other networks is accomplished by the use of gateway devices and application compatibility bridging (i.e. BacNet to ZigBee) which can be avoided with the CAP translation to an IP network.

What are the business implications?

By adopting IP as the common transport protocol, CAP simplifies the deployment of large-scale sensor networks and application by reducing or eliminating the number of protocol translation nodes. This in turn enables a wider audience to take advantage of the accumulated knowledge used in the definition of the ZigBee Application Profiles. This approach also frees the ZigBee Alliance to focus on the high-value applications for wireless sensor networks such as Energy management and Industrial control.

While customers may not care how many layers you use, layers help you provide what the customer needs.

For more information about the draft specification, see http://www.ietf.org/internet-drafts/draft-tolle-cap-00.txt

For more information about the business and market implications, please contact WTRS.

Growth Drivers for UWB Markets

2008-09-10T10:29:30-07:00

Over the last year three shifts in the UWB market emerged which indicates a market transition from demonstrations and prototypes to actual shipping products.

(1) An evolution of the Bluetooth SIG into an umbrella organization for multiple connectivity radios, including UWB, all running under the Bluetooth stack,

(2) Pulse~Link achieving customer validation of its CW-UWB products, and

(3) a strong move by CSR towards integrating UWB into its offering.

As the wireless connectivity protocols mature and gain market acceptance, the differentiation between Bluetooth, WiFi, and UWB begin to blur. Many of the same players involved in promoting and developing UWB-based wireless connectivity options are deeply embedded in the furtherance of the IEEE 802.11 family of specifications that drive Wi-Fi as a competitive alternative in the wireless connectivity arena. While each protocol and technology under development today will eventually find its own unique application and niche within the market, the component OEMs are maintaining their stake in the various initiatives as a means to ensure a place in the wireless connectivity market.

Now it is simply a matter of letting the market and equipment manufacturers define the application for the various wireless connectivity options.

The question looming over the emergence of UWB products today is related to the mechanism by which significant adoption will be stimulated. The key to this is strong application developer activity. Thus we expect that the application of UWB as an underlying protocol for high speed Bluetooth, with its tremendous number of Bluetooth application developers, will quickly dominate new product introductions for UWB technology once the high speed Bluetooth standard is completed.

Summary of WiMAX World 2007

2007-10-26T11:47:35-07:00

In spite of the recent events surrounding the shift of leadership at Sprint and the resulting uncertain future of Xohm (mobile WiMAX) services, the future for WiMAX remains strong. The WiMAX World show two weeks ago appeared to be the largest yet. There was less hype than at previous events and more real hardware on the show floor. Fujitsu Microelectronics had two demonstrations: one a setup between two laptops simultaneously demonstrating their baseband chip for 802.16d, and a second 802.16e demonstration between a gateway and a television with the Fujitsu components being in the client only. The 802.16e demonstration was not done wirelessly because of the interference on the show floor, but was still impressive. Atmel was showing their RF chips for both AT86RF535B and AT86RF525B MHz for 802.16d. These components are unique because they support IEEE 802.16-2004 (.16d) and 802.16-2005 (.16e) WiMAX applications. Samsung displayed a broad array of 802.16e-enabled mobile devices; from phones to laptop computers. The phones had a combination of three wireless communication protocols running on them: Samsung's WiBRO/802.16e, wCDMA, and the T-DMB broadcast protocol for video content.

It appears that the hurdle standing in the way of Sprint achieving its optimistic WiMAX phone forecast is actually the power-hungry WiMAX chips. Many companies are now developing more linear power amplifiers that will increase the efficiency of WiMAX phones, however much of this work is still in the technology R&D stage. Freescale announced high-power LDMOS chips to aid power amplifier component development, and we expect to see more of these types of announcements over the next 6 months.

It is interesting that companies are implementing power amplifiers in the low data rate wireless world as well. However, these applications require power amplifiers to overcome the ambient noise and increase the range. For these protocols, like ZigBee and proprietary 802.15.4 implementations, power consumption is not the issue that it is for WiMAX, because WiMAX is an OFDM protocol that by default uses more gates for its FFT and thus uses more power to operate.

As the ZigBee ecosystem matured, we began to see companies like Tendril, Atalum, and Synapsense who are focused of node registration and management. This was a signal of the sector's maturity. Similarly we are seeing companies like Bridgewater Systems taking this role in the WiMAX world. Bridgewater actually manages the registration and subscription allowances for companies like Sprint, Verizon, and Bell Atlantic, as well as others. The company's architecture can accommodate mixed networks of 802.16e, 802.16d, CDMA, DSL, cable, and pretty much any communication protocol you can think of. For Bridgewater the addition of WiMAX to its portfolio of capabilities is simply a minor tweak to its protocol. We think that since Bridgewater handles Sprint's services today, they are likely to incorporate the Xohm service as well.

The lingering question of where the radios for 802.16e are remains. Those demonstrating their baseband chip capabilities were not forthcoming as to the source of their radio chips. We maintain that the market for non-WiBro, mobile WiMAX (IEEE 802.16e) is at best two and more likely four years away from really taking hold. The question will be whether more advanced emerging protocols, such as LTE, can be developed quickly enough to offer competition or whether the protocols will segment geographically.

Evolution of Wireless Connectivity Technologies

2007-08-15T12:54:13-07:00

Communication today is more inclusive of our environment than ever before; in fact, the line between communication per sé and our daily activities and movements is no longer clearly definable, nor is communication solely about direct human action and interaction.

Over the last year four shifts in the connectivity market emerged. These include (1) an apparent loss of Freescale in the UWB market, (2) a perhaps consequential shift for PulseLink, (3) a strong move by CSR towards integrating UWB into its offering, and (4) the consequences of releasing pre-standard 802.11n to the marketplace. These four shifts are the central theme of our latest wireless connectivity report.

Freescale, having purchased XtremeSpectrum, became the market leader in UWB with products based on the DS-UWB architecture. Freescale was the most significant competition to the Intel-led MB-OFDM UWB group that eventually dominated the WiMedia Alliance. However, Freescale dropped its UWB product line abruptly in 2006. Apparently Freescale made a corporate decision based on risk reduction with its UWB components due to a perceived inability to obtain a timely ROI. According to many in the industry, Freescale was in full production with its UWB chips and in the process of delivering those components to customers like Belkin when the corporate sector of Freescale decided to cut its losses, leaving several customers in the lurch. This opened the market for domination by MB-OFDM-based UWB methodologies.

While there are many companies and organizations with UWB product development strategies, the WiMedia Alliance and the USB I/F are in competition primarily with scattered and incompatible protocols. The primary target application for the WiMedia membership is a wireless bridge for USB, corresponding initially to home and consumer electronics markets. Secondary targets include enterprise and commercial venues.As the wireless connectivity protocols mature and gain market acceptance, the differentiation between Bluetooth, WiFi, and UWB begin to blur. The same players involved in promoting and developing UWB-based wireless connectivity options are deeply embedded in the furtherance of the IEEE 802.11 family of specifications that drive Wi-Fi into a competitive stance in the wireless broadband arena. While each protocol and technology under development today will eventually find its own unique application and niche within the market, the component OEMs are maintaining their stake in the various initiatives as a means to ensure a place in the wireless connectivity market. In fact, nearly every player in UWB and Wi-Fi has legacy participation in Bluetooth applications. Now it is simply a matter of letting the market and equipment manufacturers define the application of the various wireless connectivity options.

A Wireless Joke

2007-04-09T11:56:05-07:00

After digging to a depth of 100 meters last year, Japanese scientists found traces of copper wire dating back 1000 years and came to the conclusion that their ancestors already had a telephone network one thousand years ago.

Not to be outdone in the weeks that followed, Chinese scientists dug 200 meters and headlines in the Chinese papers read: "Chinese scientists have found traces of 2000 year old optical fibers and have concluded that their ancestors already had advanced high-tech digital telephone 1000 years earlier than the Japanese."

One week later, the Greek newspapers reported thefollowing: "After digging as deep as 800 meters, Greek scientists have found absolutely nothing."

They have concluded that 3000 years ago, their ancestors were already using wireless technology.

Certified Wireless USB (UWB) Forecast Divergence

2007-04-09T11:54:20-07:00

There was a recent article in the EETimes about Artimi and their WiMedia-compliant dual-mode wireless USB / Bluetooth chip (the A-150). According to the article, Artimi will enter production at the end of 2007 with an initial unit price of $15. By 2009 the price may drop to $5, making it really competitive by the standards of today's marketplace. Artimi is an interesting company with a unique market focus and great potential.

However, the article offers an unattributed market forecast for Certified Wireless USB chips in 2009 of 200 million units. It is unclear if the forecast is an annual shipment forecast or if it is a cumulative one; either way the number is more than an order of magnitude above the current WTRS forecast for these chipsets.

There are companies, such as Wisair and Icron, which do have customers that are shipping product into the marketplace, however in the case of Wisair it seems that the chips are not yet Certified Wireless USB - compliant components. Wisair is in the business of developing rf component IP, however Icron is today selling its cable-free USB products which perhaps will be someday be included as part of the wireless USB specification. This is reasonable given the inevitable pace of a standards group as it lays down foundational rules, defines applications, and creates testing and interoperability compliance measures. With the exception of some software applications there are no products or markets that achieved 200 million units in its second, or even third, year of growth.

Put in perspective, 200 million units shipped means one device for every man and woman in the United States between the ages of 15 and 64. That is an impossible adoption to gain in just a couple years. There may be 2 billion USB peripherals in the world, but that level of adoption took more than 12 years, and really did not become a large market until the computer manufacturers were shipping USB in every PC and Laptop.

It is valuable to consider how market forecasts fit into the broader environment before blindly reusing them. In this way one avoids the inflated expectations that come with hyping a market before its time, and also the challenges faced when product forecasts do not materialize in two years. It is much easier to think about ones forecast first, rather than updating that resume two years from now.

Comparison of forecasts recently released:

Spring 2007 - EETimes/Artimi - "Certified Wireless USB chips to reach 200 million units in 2009"
Winter 2006 - iSuppli/Focus Enhancements - "160 million units in 2009"
Winter 2006 - WTRS - "18 million Certified Wireless USB chipsets to ship in 2009"
Summer 2006 - ABI - "UWB shipments to reach 300 million in 2011"
Spring 2006 - Instat/Harris Wiltshire & Grannis LLP - "13 million UWB products in 2006, 190 million UWB products in 2009"