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Amazon.com: Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions (9780767908863): John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, Howard Raiffa: Books

2010-01-24T20:15:16-05:00

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Amazon.com Review

Have you ever hired someone only to regret your decision two months later? Or looked at your financial portfolio and wondered why you bought the stocks you did? In Smart Choices, authors John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, and Howard Raiffa take the guesswork out of the decision-making process and offer a systematic approach to making the right choice. Most of us have problems making decisions, because we've never learned how. The authors write: Despite the importance of decision making to our lives, few of us ever receive any training in it. So we are left to learn from experience. But experience is a costly, inefficient teacher that teaches us bad habits along with good ones. Because decision situations vary so markedly, the experience of making one important decision often seems of little use when facing the next. Smart Choices outlines eight elements involved in making the right decision, from identifying exactly what the decision is and specifying your objectives to considering risk tolerance and looking at how what you decide on today influences what you may decide in the future. The book is full of real-life situations and scenarios that effectively illustrate each element of a good decision. If you think the topic of making the right choice is mundane or a simple matter of common sense, then think again. Smart Choices will relieve you of the regret that so many of us carry because we didn't know how to "think it through." --Harry C. Edwards
--This text refers to the

Hardcover
edition.

From Publishers Weekly

In 1966, the Lovin' Spoonful had a #2 hit with "Did You Ever Have to Make Up Your Mind?" Two years later, Raiffa answered that question for a generation of academics with his book Decision Analysis, whose argumentAthat decision-making skills can be learned and applied as a discipline of their ownAmade Raiffa deeply influential in management and social science. Raiffa (a former professor at Harvard Business School), his longtime associate Hammond (a professor of management and engineering at the University of Southern California) and Ralph Keeney (The Art and Science of Negotiation) here explain decision-analysis techniques and stratagems for the benefit of nonspecialists. They provide substantial, straightforward explanations of concepts (risk tolerance, sunk costs, desirability curves) that sound arcane but may help readers to buy the right car, choose a mutual fund, decide on a school, or plan a vacation. Unfortunately, the lingo of self-help often substitutes for the jargon of management consulting, as when Raiffa's famous five decision steps become the trendy acronym PrOACT. And the example problems can seem clich?d, two-dimensional or implausible, even when based on fact. Nevertheless, recommendations like "Remember that the value of an incremental change depends on what you start with" and "Make sure your subordinates reflect your organization's risk tolerance in their decisions" are, at the least, good reminders that the logic of decision making is often counterintuitive; at best, they are an important, useful set of insights.
Copyright 1998 Reed Business Information, Inc.
--This text refers to the

Hardcover
edition.

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Product Details

Paperback: 256 pages

Publisher: Broadway (March 5, 2002)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 0767908864

ISBN-13: 978-0767908863

Product Dimensions:

7.9 x 5.1 x 0.6 inches

Shipping Weight: 7.2 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)

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Front Cover | Table of Contents | First Pages | Surprise Me!

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First Sentence:

OUR DECISIONS SHAPE OUR LIVES. Read the first page

Key Phrases - Statistically Improbable Phrases (SIPs):
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desirability curve,
overall desirability score,
desirability scores,
making smart choices,
linked decisions,
consequences table,
monetary payoff

Key Phrases - Capitalized Phrases (CAPs):
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New York,
School Street,
West Boulevard,
Buenos Aires,
Vincent Sahid,
United States,
West Coast,
Eaton Street

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Citations (learn more)

This book cites 7
books:

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47
books
cite this book:

The Right Decision Every Time: How to Reach Perfect Clarity on Tough Decisions

by Luda Kopeikina
on

4 pages

The Set-Up-to-Fail Syndrome: How Good Managers Cause Great People to Fail

by Jean-Francois Manzoni
in Back Matter (1), and Back Matter (2)

The Power of Persuasion: How We're Bought and Sold

by Robert V. Levine
in Back Matter (1), and Back Matter (2)

The Power of Intuition: How to Use Your Gut Feelings to Make Better Decisions at Work

by Gary Klein
in Back Matter (1), and Back Matter (2)

Decision Making in Health and Medicine: Integrating Evidence and Values

by M. G. Myriam Hunink
on page 32, and page 379

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2010-01-21T08:23:04-05:00

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You might already be social networking on Facebook, or even microblogging on Twitter. One thing's for sure though; you're too busy to muck about on these sites all day, not really knowing how to get any decent play out of them. You're looking for profitability, not gimmicks.

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Part Four - Three Simple Stories

2008-07-14T23:39:22-05:00

Technorati Tags: simple church,leadership,church structure

“thinSlice” is a blog that I share my notes and highlights of chapters from books I have read.

Some slices are thinner than others.

Upon this rock I will build My church; and the gates

of Hades will not overpower it.

~ Jesus, Matthew 16:18 nasb

Clarity > Movement > Alignment > Focus

“thinnestSlice” - The Theology of Gates - Upon this rock I will build My church; and the gates

of Hades will not overpower it.

When it is all said and done we win!!!!

The question is, how much will we win by? How big of a dent in the gates of hell will we make? Will we run up the score? Will we push the movement of the gospel forcefully through the gates of hell?

Story 1: Immanuel

Immanuel Baptist Church (IBC) is vibrant, alive, and growing. Tony Cecil is the pastor of IBC.

Clarity at Immanuel

Tony gathered a group of godly leaders in his church.

Tony and the group chose to describe their discipleship focus as a process. They call it Connecting, Growing, Serving. First, Immanuel seeks to connect people to God and others. They desire to see people become “connecting believers.” Next they challenge “connecting believers” to become “growing believers” by engaging in opportunities for deeper spiritual growth. Finally, the process ends with “growing believers” committing to become “serving believers.”

thinnerSlice - See the book for the detail story of Immanuel.

Movement at Immanuel

They use their Sunday morning worship services to make “connecting believers.” The worship service is designed to bring people into a relationship with God and other Christians.

People are intentionally moved from the “connecting believer” level to the “growing believer” level. There is a clear overlap between the worship service and the next step. The overlap promotes movement. Without an overlap people fall through the cracks.

Alignment at Immanuel

Since Immanuel is not a large church, there is not a myriad of ministries to align. The primary ministries at Immanuel are the age-specific ministries to children and teenagers. Both the children’s and the youth ministry use the same simple process: connect, grow, and serve.

Focus at Immanuel

They have chosen to focus all energies and resources into a simple process that is clearly defined and moves people.

Fringe Benefits at Immanuel

· Increase morale.

· Urgency. There is an ever-increasing sense of urgency in moving people into spiritual maturity.

· Conversions. We’ve seen a significant increase in adult conversions and baptisms.

· Stewardship improved.

· Unity – overall unity was strengthened.

Story 2: Christ Fellowship

Christ Fellowship is a multicultural church consisting of more than seventy nationalities. Rick Blackwood is the senior pastor, and Eric serves as his executive pastor.

There are lots of programs and events, and many people are happy or should I say, comfortable.

However, at Christ Fellowship, God assembled a team of pastors and leaders who were not satisfied. They sought to define the kind of disciple their church was seeking to make.

God impressed on their hearts to focus people on four things: an intimate relationship with God, community with others, serving, and influencing nonbelievers.

Clarity at Christ Fellowship

They committed to one statement that features their simple process: Connect to God, others, ministry, and the lost. Christ Fellowship's purpose is their process.

During staff and leadership meetings, the process takes center stage.

Movement at Christ Fellowship

The first step in the process is to connect to God. During the weekend worship services people are able to begin or deepen their relationship with Christ.

The second step in the process is to connect to others and that is done through small groups.

The third step in the process is to connect to ministry and minister to others in tangible ways. People are challenged to join a team that is engaged in ministry they are passionate about.

The final step in the process is to connect to the lost. At Christ Fellowship, this step is not a program but a relational lifestyle. People are challenged to invite friends and families to church. is

To facilitate movement to ministry, people are challenged to test-drive a ministry. A test-drive is serving once.

Alignment at Christ Fellowship

Alignment is evident at Christ Fellowship. The children’s, middle school, high school, and young adult departments have the same process.

Children, middle school, and high school ministries provide their own Connect to God worship experience. They are offered every time an adult worship service occurs. Each age-specific department also offers small groups on Wednesday nights to connect their group to others. Each department also provides ministry opportunities for their specific age groups.

Focus at Christ Fellowship

Eliminating programs that did not fit became necessary to maximize the impact of the process.

Over a two-year period, the church-wide Sunday night worship service was eliminated. And home groups, discipleship groups were combined into one small-group strategy. All groups were placed under the same leadership and philosophy.

Christ Fellowship made many changes to foster their process.

“thinnerSlice” - See the book for details of North Point's simple process.

"7 Practices of effective ministry" is a great place to discover how to assemble a simple but effective ministry.

Now What

You have been introduced to the simple revolution. It is now time to become a simple church.

—Group Discussion Questions—

Why is it much easier to begin as a simple church than it is to become one?
What is the relationship between focus and excellence in ministry?
Of the four simple church elements—clarity, movement, alignment, and focus—which will be the most difficult to implement? Why?
What does the movement of the gospel look like in our community?

Three - Simple Church: An Extreme Makeover

2008-07-01T21:05:50-05:00

(excerpts and notes from "Simple Church by Thom Rainer)

The ability to simplify means to eliminate the unnecessary so that the necessary may speak. ~ Hans Hofmann

For people to best experience and grow in God’s grace, many churches need a redesign.

Some churches need some tweaking, while others need to redesign completely. Research shows that extreme makeover: church edition is necessary for many churches.

Church leaders must craft opportunities where people will encounter the grace of God.

Leaders are designers, not programmers.

Spiritual growth is a process. It always has been. Thus, it would make sense for church leaders to design their churches around the process of spiritual growth. In 1 Corinthians 3, believers are called God’s children (v. 1), God’s field (v. 9), and God’s building.

That process is critical. Just as babies need the right environment to grow physically, people need the right environment to grow spiritually.

Our wives and the Holy Spirit have a lot in common. It is not enough for our wives to move into a home. That is only the beginning. Redecorating is a must. And this is not a one-time redecorating. It keeps going and going.

They design a simple process and abandon everything else. They rely on their simple process to create the environments conducive to spiritual growth.

Defining a Simple Church

A simple church is a congregation designed around a straightforward and strategic process that moves people through the stages of spiritual growth.

The church is designed. It is not carelessly thrown together.

The simple and strategic process promotes movement. The process flows logically. People are attracted to Christ and the church and then are moved to points of attachment. The programs are used as tools to promote this movement.

The process moves people through the stages of spiritual growth. The goal is to partner with God to move people.

The church is designed to partner with God to move people through stages of spiritual growth.

Research indicates that the simple church strategy is effective. A simple process makes a major difference. The research is convincing.

These four elements enable leaders to have a simple church. Clarity, movement, alignment, and focus will be discussed in detail later in the book.

Clarity

Clarity is the ability of the process to be communicated and understood by the people.

For a church to be simple, the process must have a high degree of clarity.

Leadership and the people know exactly how the church is structured to move people toward spiritual growth. The how is clear. The process (the how) is discussed, taught, and illustrated.

I am not sure it is true that understanding always precedes commitment as stated here.

Before the process can be clear to the people in the church, it must first be clear to the leaders.

If leaders have a difficult time discussing and teaching the ministry process, it lacks clarity.

Ask your leaders what the process is for moving people to maturity in your church.

When there is no direction, people assume a direction or invent one.

Movement

Movement is the sequential steps in the process that cause people to move to greater areas of commitment. Movement is about flow. It is about assimilation. Movement is what causes a person to go to the next step.

Movement is the most difficult simple church element to understand; therefore, an illustration is in order. In a relay race the most important part of the race are the handoffs. Four runners are on the same team, and each runner’s speed is crucial but not nearly as crucial as the handoffs. Relay races are won or lost at the handoffs. Movement is how someone is handed off from one level of commitment to a greater level of commitment. The programs in these churches are tools used to promote movement. The leaders focus on what happens in between the programs, the handoff. Pay attention to the handoff

To implement the movement element, church leaders must take a fresh look at the weekly church calendar and the regularly scheduled programs. All programs must be placed in sequential order along the ministry process. This is what creates movement in a ministry process.

Alignment

Alignment is the arrangement of all ministries and staff around the same simple process.

When a church is fully aligned, all ministries are operating from the same ministry blueprint.

In a church that lacks alignment, everyone is competing for the same space, resources, volunteers, and time on the calendar. Without alignment, complexity is certain. They intentionally fight the drift into misalignment. They insist that each staff member and each ministry embrace and execute their simple ministry process.

Focus

Focus is the commitment to abandon everything that falls outside of the simple ministry process. Focus most often means saying “no.” Focus requires saying “yes” to the best and “no” to everything else. Focus is the element that gives power and energy to clarity, movement, and alignment. They view everything through the lens of the “simple.” They seek to funnel new ideas into their ministry process instead of beginning new paradigms.

Yes, it was the special and sacred snake. The snake that was crafted and held by Moses. The snake that God had instructed Moses to make. The snake that was the source of salvation for the people from their snakebites (Num. 21:6 –8). He got rid of it because it was clutter. It was clutter because the people worshipped it. It took attention away from the real Savior. Bronze was worshipped. A fake snake was adored. What was once a good thing became an idol? It got in the way of their worship of God. The tool for worship became the object of worship. The church needs some modern-day Hezekiahs.

Hofmann once indicated that if you want the necessary to stand out, you have to get rid of the unnecessary. And churches need the necessary to stand out. To be simple you have to eliminate the unnecessary. Most of the things you eliminate will be good things. They were started with a passionate leader and a perceived or real need. The key is to choose the best. Eliminate the unnecessary and keep the best.

—Group Discussion Questions—

1. What is our church’s ministry process?

2. Is our process clear? Does it have clarity?

3. Does our process effectively move people toward greater levels of commitment?

4. Is our process implemented in all areas of our church? Are we aligned around our process?

5. How focused is our church?

6. What would Hezekiah think of our church?

Technorati Tags: Church Organization,Leadership,Pastors

Simple Church - Part 2: The Simple [and Not-So-Simple] Church in Action

2008-06-25T03:16:34-05:00

To be great is to be simple - Ralph Waldo Emerson

Have you ever heard the saying, "you just had to be there?" This happens when you are unable to do it justice by explaining it.

This is true with the simple church. You have to be there and see it in action.

Seeing Simple

The author wants you to see it. The data presented in this book will resonate more with you if you go there with the author.

So you are invited to go along on a church consultation trip. You will see a simple church in action and a not so-simple one. This consultation goes beyond the typical planning of parking, staffing, programing, and community analysis, which can often be done by phone. This will be an extensive on-site visit with two real churches who names have been changed. (Please click on blog comments below as you go through this tour to give feedback)

First Church

First Church has existed over forty years and is recognized throughout the denomination as a solid church. They have staff members who speak at events and write articles. The church has not grown in the last five years. Very few people come to Christ there. No major turmoil.

Cross Church

Cross Church is not well known and neither were their staff. CC is less than twenty years in age. The church has been growing a lot over the last several years. People have not only been coming to know Christ, they are staying. People seem to get plugged in and contribute.

First Church Statements

The documents most churches have are church bulletins, newsletters, staff manuals, annual budgets, brochures and ministry booklets. The author/consultant, Thom read them all to discover what was most important to First Church and how it is accomplished.

First Church has lots of statements: mission, purpose, vision and strategy statements. Each statement is different and each ministry department has a different statement to describe the focus of the church. What does it all mean?

Different statements appear to come from different church models (Willow Creek and Saddleback).

It would be easier to remember some books of the Bible and much more beneficial.

Questions: Do the statements have anything to do with each other and are they reflective in how the church does ministry?

Based on this information ,Thom is unsure of the real focus of the church.

Interviewing the First Church Pastor

A brief meeting with the pastor of First Church.

He seemed to be back and forth between giving the perception that everything is OK and admitting that he is frustrated.

The question was asked of him what his desire for the church is. What does he believe God is calling First Church to do? He see a church where lives are changed.

He was asked how his church is set up to make this happen. He struggled to answer. He said, "this is why I ask you to come."

Interviewing First Church Leaders

During the author's interviews with key lay leaders, he asked what the focus of their church is. He got a myriad of responses.

They asked the staff to state their vision or purpose. Few were able to do so.

If the "what" of First Church is not clear, the "how" can't be clear.

The question of "How is your church structured to make disciples" led to confused looks and blank stares. How do you set up your ministry programs to move people toward spiritual transformation? More blank stares.

Cross Church Statement

One major difference from First Church is that Cross Church only has one statement. It is a short statement, adapted by each age group, but the crux of it is the same.

Their focus is to lead people to love God, love others, and serve the world. It is clear, concise and reiterated on all communication pieces.

Interviewing the Cross Church Pastor

There is a lot of consistency with the "love God, love others, serve the world" theme.

"Talk to us about your process. How do you make your purpose happen? "Love God, love others, serve the world is our process." "It is both, our purpose and our process." He knew both biblically and experientially that spiritual transformation is a process. He committed to developing a process for making disciples, a process that pulled everything together and executed the purpose of the church.

See Matt.28:19 (make disciples) and Eph. 4:13. (mature disciples).

He was able to explain the simple process clearly. It was easy to grasp.

Interviewing Cross Church Leaders

The leaders all seemed to speak the same language and it was discussed in staff meetings.

The question was asked, "how does this translate into regular church life?" One church leader responded, "we ask people to do three things a week here; come to a worship service to fall more in love with God and His Word. Go to a small group to love others in community. Serve in a ministry to impact others - Love God, love others, serve the world.

People move through the process simply by going from one program to the next.

An easy to view comparison

	First Church - FC	Cross Church - CC

Programming Programs should be tools for movement	Eight major programs in seven days. Not clear what program people are taught to invite guest to. How can they build relationship with their neighbors, the unchurched.	Clear about first step, love God. Worship service is where guest enter the church. The second step, love others. This takes place in small groups where people connect in relationships. The third step is serve the world. People are engaged in ministry. Movement is encouraged at each program.

Staff Meetings	Much of the time was spent managing the calendar because it was pretty full. The staff seemed to be jockeying for position on it.	They spend less than five minutes looking at the calendar. The reason is the calendar is pretty empty. Cross Church devotes most of the time discussing weekly program evaluations as a working part of the discipleship process.

Numbers - Do you see the difference?	FC monitors the number of people involved in each program and each program is viewed separately.	CC evaluates how many people are at each stage of the process and the movement that has or has not occurred.
	FC views numbers vertically, the increase in amount of people in the program.	CC views the numbers horizontally, the increase in the movement of people.

New Ideas - New ideas and opportunities often surface in staff meetings	FC is hosting two special events this month that are competing for the time of many people. The sentiment is that the families should be willing to give two entire weekends to church programs in the same month and all the regular weekly programs as well. Result, registration was very low.	CC also has a deep burden for families that are struggling, but instead choose to meet the need through their ministry process. They started several small groups that will deal with these issues and they are making relational connection (love others). They got a great response.

Staffing Decisions	FC's goal is to assemble an all-star type staff, the best available. The stated philosophy is "hire thoroughbreds and let them run." They seem to end often with competing philosophies. Sometimes they need a referee.	CC looks for character, competency, and chemistry. They can't just be good they must be onboard with the ministry process. Unity is a major concern for CC.

The Announcements - Announcements during a worship service can tell a lot about the life of a church	FC gives eight passionate announcements encouraging everyone to attend each one. People are going to have to pick and choose. FC has a lot of activity, busyness and a lot of complexity. They need a process to guide them.	CC's announcements are about movement to the next step. People seem to know exactly what they are invited to next. There were three announcements. Simple. Everything fits into the big picture.

The Simple Church Experience

Two real churches with two very different experiences.

Is your church more like First Church or Cross Church?

Would you like your church to be more like Cross Church?

Is it possible for your church to make such a radical change?

In what ways does your church resemble First Church and Cross Church?

Stay connected to "thinSlice" for Part Three - Simple Church: An Extreme Makeover

Technorati Tags: church structure