Thoroughbred Chat

GulfFair Weekend (Part 1)

2012-02-24T18:00:00.001-05:00

What a weekend down at Gulfstream. Sunday (which will be previewed tomorrow) has Fountain of Youth and Saturday's card is very good as well. Also the Fair Grounds has their final prep races before the LA Derby and Fair Grounds Oaks Lets take a look at whose running!

At Gulfstream:

8th Race - Gulfstream Park - Saturday, February 25th, 2012
STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Dirt. Purse $100,000. Sabin S. (Grade 3). FOR FILLIES AND MARES, FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. Free nomination by Saturday, February 11, 2012, $1,000 to pass the entry box and $500 additional to start, with $100,000 Guaranteed. All fees shall be paid prior to the start of the race. The owner of the winner to receive $60,000; $20,000 to second, $10,000 to third, $5,000 to fourth, $3,000 to fifth and $2,000 to sixth. Supplemental nominations may be made at time of entry a fee of $5,000, which includes entry and starting fees. Weight : 123 lbs. Non-winners of a grade I or II at a mile or over since June 1 allowed 2 lbs; a graded stakes or $60,000 twice since July 1, 4 lbs., $45,000 since August 1, 6 lbs. Starters to be named through the entry box by the usual time of closing. This race will be limited to 14 Starters, with Also Eligibles. If more than fourteen (14) entries pass the entry box preference will be given to graded stakes winners, then highest 2010-2012 earnings. Trophy to winning owner. Nominations Closed Saturday, February 11, 2012 with 13 Nominations. (03:49 PM) (5)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Ghostly Darkness 4 F L 117 Maragh Rajiv Reed Eric R.
2 Royal Delta 4 F L 123 Lezcano Jose Mott William I.
3 Awesome Maria 5 M L 123 Velazquez John R. Pletcher Todd A.
4 Groupie Doll 4 F L 121 Borel Calvin H. Bradley William
5 Canadian Mistress 4 F L 117 Trujillo Elvis Wolfson Martin D.

This is Awesome Maria's first start since being injured after her Ogden Phipps win, many people think that Groupie Doll could upset the apple cart if she could pull the upset (she certinally has the jockey to do it with). However, this is Royal Delta's race to lose and it could set her up for a showdown in Dubai with Animal Kingdom.

10th Race - Gulfstream Park - Saturday, February 25th, 2012
STAKES. 1 3/8 Mile Turf. Purse $100,000. Very One S. (Grade 3). FOR FILLIES AND MARES, FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. (04:45 PM) (14)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Here To Win (BRZ) 6 M L 117 Bravo Joe McLaughlin Kiaran P.
2 Hasay (GB) 5 M L 117 Dominguez Ramon A. Motion H. Graham
3 Woodford Belle 5 M L 117 Castanon Jesus Lopez Nihei Michelle
4 Perfect Shirl 5 M L 123 Velazquez John R. Attfield Roger L.
5 Casablanca Smile (CHI) 6 M L 121 Desormeaux Kent J. McGaughey III Claude R.
6 Keertana 6 M L 121 Lezcano Jose Proctor Thomas F.
7 Clarinet 5 M L 117 Leparoux Julien R. Motion H. Graham
8 Good Karma (ITY) 4 F L 117 Maragh Rajiv Clement Christophe
9 Shimmering Moment 5 M L 117 Rocco, Jr. Joseph Abbott, III Francis
10 Middle Club (GB) 5 M L 117 Lopez Paco Clement Christophe
11 Font 4 F L 117 Solis Alex O. Tagg Barclay
12 Aquitaine 6 M L 117 Contreras Luis Matz Michael R.
13 Full Moon Party 5 M L 117 Wilson Emma-Jayne Frazier Matt
14 Dash Dot Dash 6 M L 117 Trujillo Elvis Wolfson Martin D.

The BC F/M Turf Champ is back! The good news is that Perfect Shirl has had a start over this track before finishing second. However Keertana who defeated the boys last year is also this race and she finished third off a layoff in the Endeavor, and she's 2 for 2 in her second start off a layoff. However, those layoffs where shorter then the one she just came off. Those 2 are my 1-2 in either order and Clarinet (just because I play the instrument) for third.

11th Race - Gulfstream Park - Saturday, February 25th, 2012
STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Dirt. Purse $250,000. Davona Dale S. (Grade 2). FOR FILLIES, THREE YEAR OLDS. (05:13 PM) (9)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Nuffsaid Nuffsaid 3 F L 116 Lezcano Jose Hennig Mark A.
2 Grace Hall 3 F L 118 Dominguez Ramon A. Dutrow Anthony W.
3 Captivating Lass 3 F L 116 Velazquez John R. McLaughlin Kiaran P.
4 The Cat's All That 3 F L 116 Lopez Paco Peery Chuck
5 Frolic's Revenge 3 F L 118 Leyva Juan C. Wolfson Milton W.
6 Yara 3 F L 116 Castanon Jesus Lopez Garoffalo Jose
7 Disposablepleasure 3 F L 120 Leparoux Julien R. Pletcher Todd A.
8 Taker Home 3 F L 116 Contreras Luis Pirie Barbara A.
9 Salad Girl 3 F L 118 Trujillo Elvis Plesa, Jr. Edward

With both My Miss Aurilea and Weemissfrankie on the sidelines, the #1 Oaks contender is Grace Hall. She make's her 3 year old debut in here, and other then Disposablepleasure and Frolic's Revenge there really isn't anything in here that could possibly beat her. Should be interesting how she does in here though.

At the Fair Grounds:

5th Race - Fair Grounds - Saturday, February 25th, 2012
ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. 1 Mile 70Y Dirt. Purse $49,000. FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE RACES OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $17,500. Weight, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of Two Races At A Mile Or Over Since January 25 Allowed 2 lbs. One such race since then Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $17,500. (02:00 PM) (12)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Wheemaway 4 G L 121 Sellers Shane J. Pish Danny
2 Majestic Harbor 4 C L 119 Lanerie Corey J. McGee Paul J.
3 Musicstreet Menace 6 G L 119 Mena Miguel Scherer Richard R.
4 Adirondack Express 4 G L 119 Graham James Stidham Michael
5 Nehro 4 C L 119 Bridgmohan Shaun Asmussen Steven M.
6 Avenue B 4 R L 119 Albarado Robby Carroll David M.
7 Stinking Creek 4 C L 119 Napravnik Rosie Maker Michael J.
8 Major Prince 4 C L 121 Jacinto John Charles Keith
9 Big Town 4 C L 114 McMahon C.J. Glyshaw Tim
10 Austons Sure Cure 6 H L 119 Hernandez, Jr. Brian Joseph Pessin Neil L.
11 Only Boy 4 G L 119 Clark Kerwin D. Deville Carl J.
12 Face The Fire 7 G L 119 Theriot Jamie Gabriel, Jr. Leo G.

Last year's Derby runner up is the final horse from the Top 3 to return as a four year old. Both Animal Kingdom and Mucho Macho Man have returned as winners, the question is will he? I'm going to say yes, he's run well over this surface before and but hasn't fully put it all together. Still this is a good spot for a comeback.

7th Race - Fair Grounds - Saturday, February 25th, 2012
STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Dirt. Purse $200,000. Rachel Alexandra S. (Grade 3). FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. By subscription of $200 by Saturday, February 11th; $900 to enter, $900 additional to start. Supplemental nominations of $4,000 will be accepted at time of entry which shall include all fees. $200,000 Guaranteed of which 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 4% to fourth , 2% to fifth and 1% to starters sixth through ninth. Weight 122 lbs. Non-winners of a graded stakes allowed, 2lbs, a sweepstakes at a mile or over allowed, 4 lbs, a race at a mile or over since November 25th allowed, 6 lbs. (Maiden and claiming races not considered in estimating allowances). Starters to be named through the entry box by usual time of closing. Preference to horses that have accumulated the highest lifetime earnings excluding restricted races at the time of passing entry box. Different owners have equal draw according to money earned. Failure to draw into the race will cancel all fees. THE OWNER OF THE WINNER TO RECEIVE A TROPHY. Closed Saturday, February 11, 2012, with 13 nominations. (02:58 PM) (7)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Believe You Can 3 F L 122 Napravnik Rosie Jones J. Larry
2 Avie's Sense 3 F L 116 Graham James Carroll Josie
3 Inny Minnie 3 F L 116 Bridgmohan Shaun Margolis Steve
4 Table Three Ten 3 F L 116 Castellano Javier Motion H. Graham
5 Summer Applause 3 F L 118 Albarado Robby Calhoun W. Bret
~~6 Applauding 3 F L 116 Sellers Shane J. Stall, Jr. Albert M.~~
7 Annaclone 3 F L 116 Mena Miguel Flint Bernard S.

I'm wondering if there's something more nasty going inside of Applauding then we know (this is the second stakes she's been scratched from). Many people are high on Taple Three Ten, but I've never seen her. The 1-2-3 from the Silverbulletday return, and I think Inny Minnie will turn the tables on Believe You Can and Summer Applause.

11th Race - Fair Grounds - Saturday, February 25th, 2012
STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Dirt. Purse $300,000. Risen Star S. (Grade 2). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. By subscription of $300 by Saturday, February 11th (Louisiana Derby early bird nominees automatically subscribed); $1,250 to enter; $1,450 additional to start. Supplemental nominations of $6,000 will be accepted at time of entry which shall include all fees. $300,000 Guaranteed of which 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 4% to fourth, 2% to fifth and 1% to starters sixth through ninth. Weight: 122 lbs. Non-winners of a grade I or II stakes allowed, 2lbs, a sweepstakes at a mile or over, allowed, 4lbs, $27,000 twice at a mile or over, allowed, 6lbs. (Maiden and claiming races not considered in estimating allowances). Starters to be named through the entry box by the usual time of closing. Preference to horses accordingto highest lifetime earnings excluding restricted races at the time of passing entry box. Different owners have equal draw according to earnings. Failure to draw into the race will cancel all fees. THE OWNER OF THE WINNER TO RECEIVE A TROPHY. Closed SSaturday, February 11, 2012, with 79 nominations. (04:55 PM) (11)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Afford 3 C L 116 Bridgmohan Shaun Geier Greg
2 Optimizer 3 C L 116 Marquez, Jr. Carlos H. Lukas D. Wayne
3A Mr. Bowling 3 C L 120 Albarado Robby Jones J. Larry
4 Z Dager 3 C L 116 Sellers Shane J. Asmussen Steven M.
5 Ted's Folly 3 G L 120 Zimmerman Ramsey Brown Wilson L.
6B Adena's Chance 3 C L 116 Eramia Richard E. Dorochenko Gennadi
7B Hero Of Order 3 C L 116 Graham James Dorochenko Gennadi
8 El Padrino 3 C L 116 Castellano Javier Pletcher Todd A.
9A Mark Valeski 3 C L 116 Napravnik Rosie Jones J. Larry
10 Shared Property 3 G L 120 Goncalves Leandro R. Amoss Thomas M.
11 Tizanexpense 3 C L 116 Mena Miguel

How loaded is Todd Pletcher this year? El Padrino who is getting quite a bit of buzz, is not even the buzziest horse in his stable. Mr. Bowling has a stablemate in Mark Valeski. If you where part of Sunday's Live Chat, I posted how the horses have done in their last couple of starts. I'm going with Optimizer in this. Why? It's not I don't think the big name horses are horrible, is that I'm just thinking about the long run where pedigree might stand out more. Yes his sire is a turf horse, but with a Belmont winning broodmare sire that will help him in the long run. Z Dagger for second and El Padrino for third.

So that's part one of the Weekend Preview, tomorrow will be the FOY preview which I will go over each horse one by one.

Honey I Went to a Car Auction and Bought a Horse!

2012-02-21T20:17:00.001-05:00

Who knew this could even happen. Shez a Hearbreaker, an 5 year old mare by Arch ended up in a car auction on Long Island. Her most recent race was in early January at Aqueduct, she sold for $16,000. Right now because of a bad ankle, she's getting some R&R with a possible return to the track. Here is her Equibase profile, and honestly she has done only okay in claiming races. It will be interesting what happens. However, I have a question. Why was she at an car auction? Places like New Holland and Sugar Creek are aweful and thankfully she didn't up there, but they would be more suited to handle a horse then a car auction.

It's just a wierd case. I wish her and her new owner the best of luck. If she doesn't return to the track, I'm sure she'll be pasture puff.

2/19 TC Live Chat!

2012-02-19T16:00:00.000-05:00

Here we go, the first TC of the year! I think you all know the rules, but here they are again.

1. Please be kind to others
2. No foul language
3. Have fun!

Other housekeeping will take place during the chat.

Triple Crown Live Chat

Live Chat Announcement

2012-02-12T17:26:00.000-05:00

It's that time of year! The 3rd annual Thorough Chat Derby Trail chats are a go! They will begin next Sunday, February 19th at 5pm EST US. After Sunday, the chats will be every Monday (unless noted) at 6:30 pm EST. There will be no skipping of weeks this year with how the calandar falls this year (this has been the case in past years). The chats will conclude the Monday following the Lexington, however there will be a special chat the Thursday before the Oaks and Derby at a time that will be announced at a later date.

I hope you all join me next Sunday for the live chat!

It's Donn Time!

2012-02-10T16:01:00.000-05:00

Here we go! In what could be the deepest Donn in quite a while with 2 TC race winners, an undefeated horse, a horse with upside and a horse who has shown the talent before but hasn't put it quite together. Here is this year's field!

10th Race - Gulfstream Park - Saturday, February 11th, 2012
STAKES. 1 1/8 Mile Dirt. Purse $500,000. Donn H. (Grade 1). FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. By subscription of $500 each by Saturday, January 28, 2012 , which shall accompany the nomination, $2,500 to pass the entry box and $2,500 additional to start. Supplementary nomination by Noon Friday February 3, at a fee of$25,000 which includes entry and starting fee. $500,000 Guaranteed. All fees shall be paid prior to the start of the race. Monies to be divided 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 5% to fourth, 3% to fifth and 2% to sixth. Weights: Saturday, February 4, 2012. Starters to be named through the entry box by the usual time of closing. This race will be limited to 14 Starters, with Also Eligibles. High Weights Preferred with second preference to horses with the highest lifetime earnings. Trophy to the winning owner. Nominations Closed Saturday, January 28, 2012 with 14 Nominations. (04:45 PM) (11)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Where's Sterling 5 H L 115 Lezcano Jose Canani Nick
2 Mission Impazible 5 H L 117 Castellano Javier Pletcher Todd A.
3 Ruler On Ice 4 G L 119 Napravnik Rosie Breen Kelly J.
4 Redeemed 4 C L 118 Prado Edgar S. Dutrow, Jr. Richard E.
5 Soaring Empire 5 H L 116 Leparoux Julien R. Gambolati Cam M.
6 Al Khali 6 R L 115 Garcia Alan Mott William I.
7 Flat Out 6 H L 121 Solis Alex O. Dickey Charles L.
8 Trickmeister 5 H L 117 Dominguez Ramon A. Dutrow, Jr. Richard E.
9 Shackleford 4 C L 119 Castanon Jesus Lopez Romans Dale L.
10 Hymn Book 6 G L 116 Velazquez John R. McGaughey III Claude R.
11 Sangaree 7 H L 115 Maragh Rajiv McLaughlin Kiaran P.

Since he's been in stakes company, Redeemed has been either 1st or 2nd. He won the Discovery in his final start as a three year old. Mission Impazible is certainly a horse who can win a G1, but he hasn't had things go his way. The good news is he's done well over the Gulfstream surface. With the possible chance of rain, it would be stupid of me to overlook Ruler On Ice. He hasn't won on a dry surface, but is 2 for 2 over wet. Of course he gets his stablemate's jockey which will help him. Another horse who should love the slop is Trickmiester who is the undefeated horse here. This is really a make or break race for Flat Out whose last three races have been very lackluster. Shackleford gave Dialed In all he can handle in last year's FL Derby and hopefully runs well in his first race as a four year old. Al Khali is prob. going to grass race (which I previewed on Turf Talk), Sangaree has a chance, as does Soaring Empire. The other two horses are unknowns to me I'm afraid.

My pick is: Shackleford. If he can control the front, I don't think there will be anyone who can pass him. Ruler On Ice for second and Flat Out for third.

More importantly, I hope all the horses come back safe and sound!

End of the Line for Delaware?

2012-02-09T14:01:00.000-05:00

The past several years, Delaware Park has been a hotspot for big time horses to come out of. From Afleet Alex and Barbaro to Havre de Grace, they have put the Stanton track on the map. However, with Parx (Philadelphia Park) not only having slots but getting a G1 as well, Delaware has struggled with their dates over the past few years. This upcoming season will be no exception, with the DTRC giving only 100 days of racing for the 2012 season. This is down 6 days from the 2011 sesason, and 16 days from 2010. Plus there is no contract currently with the Horseman's Association. The start of the season will be May 12 with for the third year in a row, the Delaware Oaks and Delaware Handicap will be held on two different weekends.

It's sad to see my home track struggling like this and with the way things are going right now. Unfortunately, the competition from PA and MD with both of those states now having slots has hurt Delaware. It's just very frustrating to see this happen and honestly, as a fan there is prob. little that I can personally do (other then bet which is something I'm not really interested in).

Even with the issues that are going on, I hope that the 2012 season is a good one. Hopefully we see another good Delaware Handicap, of course prob. nothing like last years with Grace and Blind Luck. Thorough, with all the talented fillies that are returning, it could turn out to be one of the deepest DelCaps in quite a while.

Taking on the Boys: The New Norm?

2012-02-07T18:31:00.000-05:00

Sure she didn't win for her Oaks-Belmont winning season in 2007 (Curlin did). Believe it or not though, Rags to Riches set the bar for fillies eyeing the big prize, Horse of the Year. How so? By taking on the boys. Since 2009, the past three HOY winners have been fillies (Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta and Havre de Grace). Those three have something in common with Rags, they went against the boys in their HOY seasons (Rach and Grace winning, Z losing a very close Classic. Of course though she defeated them once before the year before).

This begs the question, will this lead to fillies going against colts/geldings more now? While in the US it's been somewhat of a no-no for years, overseas it's the norm. Sunline and Makybe Diva ruled Australia in the distance races (both winning the Cox Plate, and the latter adding 3 Melbourne Cups to her name). Currently Black Caviar is taking names in the Sprint/Mile division. She is possibly going to be taking her show on the road to Dubai and Royal Ascot. Ouija Board and Goldikova defeated both sexes in Europe, before and after winning their BC races. Then there is Urban Sea (Arc winner and dam to one of my favorite fillies My Typhoon), Miesque (2 time BC Mile winner), and Pebbles (BC Turf winner). All three of them legends in Europe. The newest boybeating superstar in Europe is Danedream who won the Arc in October.

Then there is Japan's dynamic duo of Vodka and Buena Vista, both of them Japan Cup winners. The latter should have been a 2 time winner if she wasn't DQ'ed in 2010.

In the US, right now it's just Grace. However, there could be a serious chance that if she continues down the road that Awesome Feather could be going in the same direction. It could be a fun 2012 for fillies of all ages!

Honoring Grace and BL

2012-02-03T17:26:00.000-05:00

So this afternoon, I decided to play around in Photoshop with a few photos that I had taken of Havre de Grace, and Blind Luck. I have recently discovered the 3D feature on Photoshop and thought that those two would be great subjects of this test. The photos wheren't fantastic, but for what I wanted to do, they would work. So this is what I came up with,

Nothing fancy, just keeping it simple the black background. With my goal of going to Super Saturday this year, I'm hopeful to get more photos of horses of trying something simlar with in the future. I know that I need quite a bit of work, but this is just the start.

Previews of the Strub and Essex will be posted tomorrow morning!

1/29 Derby Top Five

2012-01-29T18:40:00.000-05:00

It's been over a month since I introducted the Top 5, and there are some changes to the list. In mid-Feb, the list will expand to Top 7 and by March will be at the Top 15. The goal is by the begining of the final preps to really have the Top 20 set up and ready to go. For now, here is the first Top Five list of the new year.

1. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway)- Dad was so close of winning the Classic as 3yo 12 years ago this year. Mom was an amazing horse, and with some buzzy horses coming out of California, I'm actually liking his chances more.

2. Algorimthms (Bernardini)- Defeated the 2yo Champ Hansen today in the Holy Bull. Here's the thing, he might not be Todd Pletcher's strongest bullet.

3. Dullahan (Even the Score)- There's just something that I love about him that I didn't about his brother. I'm very excited to see what he does down in FL.

4. Gemologist (Tiznow)- This horse could be a freak. Why is he ranked so low? I'm too scared that I will curse him if I put him higher then 4th.

5. Union Rags (Dixie Union)- Alot of people are rooting for this guy, six years after his trainers most famous and beloved charge won the Run for the Roses (today is the fifth aniversary of Barbaro's death).

Dropped off: Hansen (Tapit), Liasion (Indian Charlie)

Others Considered: Sabrecat, Out of Bounds, Midnight Transfer

It's a shame that the Shackleford's little bro, Stephanoatsee is injured and off the TC trail (would have loved to see what Oatsee did with a distance stallion). The Oaks Top 5 will be released later this week.

Finally, San Pail was named HOY last night and a very happy 6th birthday to Rachel Alexandra! (She and baby is currently at Rood and Riddle, but could be going home soon).

Will San Pail get his crown?

2012-01-27T19:42:00.000-05:00

Yes this is a Thoroughbred blog, but for one night I want to talk about Standardbreds. One horse in particular in matter of fact. Who may that be? Why it's the one and only San Pail! Tomorrow night is the O'Brien Awards which is the Canadian Standardbred version of the Soverign Awards (which in turn are the Canadian Thoroughbred version of the Eclipses). It has already been announced that San Pail was the unanimous winner for Older Male and is the heavy favorite to be named Horse of the Year. There is also a huge chance that he could be named the Dan Patch (US Standardbred Awards) HOY as well. Here are some of his races:

His third Maple Leaf Trot in a row

The Nat Ray on Hambo day

Credit Winner nailing Lucky Jim on the wire and setting a new track record in the process

The crowing achivement of his year defeating two Europeans in the Breeders' Crown

The OBrien's are tomorrow night at 9pm, I'll be watching online and rooting for San Pail to be named HOY!

Breeders' Cup returns to it's roots

2012-01-26T20:46:00.000-05:00

After spending the past couple of years on ABC and ESPN, the Breeders' Cup is returning to it's orginal television home. NBC who had shown the BC up to 2005 (with ESPN starting in 2006) will be the "new home" for the BC. Well technically speaking, NBC will be showing just the Classic, with the NBC Sports Network (formally known as OLN and Versus) will be showing the rest of the races. This is the big boost for a network whose been struggling lately with it's scripted shows (the very much hyped Playboy Club was a bust, Whitney isn't funny and Up All Night hasn't lived up to it's early high ratings).

So what went wrong at ESPN? The producer who had brought the BC to the station left shortly afterwards. I also think that putting Football specialist Chris Fowler and then Boxing specialist Joe Tessitore instead of Basketball specialist Reece Davis as the main anchor also hurt (before Chris and Joe where part of the racing coverage, Reece was the second host behind Kenny Mayne). It didn't help that Jim McKay (RIP) and Al Michaels, both who worked racing on ABC where no longer part of the Disney family. Lastly, many people don't like Trevor Denman.

While many people are happy that the BC is returning, NBC Sports Network is not as well known as ESPN. The station is a baby (started in 1995), and up until a few years ago was not really that well known station (at the time Comcast's OLN (which now owns NBC, but didn't at that time) and NBC teamed up to secure US tv rights for the NHL). However, thanks to the success of last year's Saratoga meet (ratings where good) and the fact that NBC's crew will be used is a win (although someone will have to fill in for Tom Hammond that weekend at Notre Dame as the Irish are home).

As for ESPN, it's obvious that they have moved on to focus on football, basketball, baseball, tennis and soccer (although for the latter they will also have comp. from the said NBC Sports Network). As disapointing as that is, the hit on losing viewers for them won't be great.

The biggest plus of all though? No more Hank!

Early 2015 TC Favorite!

2012-01-22T20:25:00.000-05:00

He's here!!!!! The product of 2 time Horse of the Year Curlin (Smart Strike) and 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra (Medagalia d' Oro) was born this afternoon at Stonestreet Farm in KY. Here is a picture that was posted on both Twitter and Facebook.

Of course the stakes will be high for him considering who both his parents are. Since the announcement on Derby day last year, that Rachel was carring a colt, I had pegged this little guy to be the early favorite for the 2015 Triple Crown. If all goes according to plan, he will be making his first start sometime in 2014 when he is 2.

Of course right now the most important thing is that it appears that both son and mother are doing well. Rachel will be bred to 2006 3yo Champion Male Bernardini this year. This is the second major mare announced to visit him this year in the past two weeks. Blind Luck will also be visiting him for her first foal, and of course Zenyatta is currently in foal to him and will be due shortly.

Eclipse Recap

2012-01-17T14:31:00.002-05:00

Here are the results for the Eclipse, as well as my thoughts.

2yo Male: Hansen- Say what you may about him, the right horse won the award. He beat Union Rags on the track where it counts.

2yo Female: My Miss Aurelia- Nice that we heard from her namesake, but Barbara Banke was just as bad as her late husband when it comes to length.

3yo Male: Animal Kingdom- Three votes separated him and Caleb's Posse, and becomes the first Derby winner since Big Brown to win the award. However, I didn't agree with the decision (I was saying on both Twitter and Facebook that it was BS). Caleb won 2 G1's over a BC race winner from the year before and a TC race winner. Plus he defeated Archarcharch earlier in the year. Animal Kingdom got a great ride in what turned out (at least to me) the worst Derby in quite a while. I'm hoping that Caleb kicks butt this year while I believe Animal Kingdom will struggle. Especially with where he's going.

3yo Female: Royal Delta- No surprise, she deserved it, but Awesome Feather got a few votes? Really?

Older Male: Acclamation- In the end his win in a G1 nullified his G3 last place finish. Deserved it over the two other candidates who had good, but not great seasons. HOY Finalist

Older Female: Havre de Grace- Was there ever a doubt? Was very surprising that Maria got a vote instead of just Grace and Clover. HOY Finalist

Turf Male: Cape Blanco- Another not surprising choice, I had heard some people voted for Acclamation, so I figured that the vote would be close, but it wasn't. HOY Finalist

Turf Female: Stacelita- Did her owner really have to give her life story? Another non surprise, but I somewhat hoping that Perfect Shirl would have pulled off the upset.

Male Sprinter: Amazombie- I feel bad for Caleb, he didn't have a chance in this category and he lost his other category by a very slim margin. This was the biggest cheer I heard all night, at least to me it was.

Female Sprinter: Musical Romance- Honestly this was the award that I wasn't a 100% who would get it, but I'm not sure if the right horse won. Then again I was hoping that Sassy Image would be the winner.

Owner: Ken and Sarah Ramsey- Really glad they won and not Team Valor. Hopefully Stephanie's Kitten does well for them this year.

Breeder: Adena Springs- This. Is. BS. Really, I can't name a single Adena bred who won a stakes race this past year (not saying there where none, just at the top of my head I can't think of any). I find it funny that when the awards are on his station, Frank Stronach actually shows up (he usually lets his wife handle the awards).

Trainer: Bill Mott- The right person won, you can't take away who Drosselmeyer and Royal Delta did this year in the BC. Just like in 1995, he wins the Eclipse for Trainer.

Apprentice Jockey: Kyle Frey- The most heartwrenching as he was griving the loss of his grandfather. A superstar could be born at Phila, I mean Parx.

Jockey: Ramon Domingez- The Mid-Atlantic is the place to be. Sure he's based in New York now, but he dominated Delaware for years and rode Grace in all, but 1 of her wins in 2011 (Obeah was ridden by Gabriel Saez since it was the same day as the Belmont, Gabe rides her in morning workouts).

HORSE OF THE YEAR: There where three finalists, all deserving of the accolade to make it to this list. Acclamation, Cape Blanco and Havre de Grace. All three of them had the same amount of G1 wins, 3. All three had faced the best of their division, and all three where the winners of their division's Eclipse. In the end though only one horse could win, and that horse was....

Grace!!! Say what you may about who she ran against, and that she didn't win the Classic. However, she defeated the Ladies Classic winner and the F/M Sprint runner up. Plus her final duel with Blind Luck In the end, the right horse won the Award.

ESPN's Jeannine Edwards was the host, and considering the circumstances she did an okay job. HRTV on the other hand, did a poor job with making it look like a rush job, although it turned out to be a last minute addition as Jason Shandler writes. I do disagree with him about making it look like how the MLB, NFL and NBA does it. I feel that they do a poor job by stretching it out since we have to wait for a certin award to come if we don't care about the rest of them. NHL, I feel is the only one that does it correctly in holding a ceremony right after the Stanley Cup Finals are over. Maybe that is something that the NTRA should look at for future years down the road is to hold it right after the Breeders' Cup at a nice hotel near the host track.

In the end, awards are now over and we don't have to think about them again... until this upcoming November.

Eclipse Chat 1/16

2012-01-16T18:30:00.001-05:00

Rules and Housekeeping will be announced in the chat. Enjoy!

<p>&amp;lt;a href="http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php/option=com_mobile/task=viewaltcast/altcast_code=a22c688446" &amp;gt;Eclipse Live Chat&amp;lt;/a&amp;gt;</p>

On Fire Baby takes on Boys

2012-01-15T16:26:00.000-05:00

Tomorrow's Smarty Jones at Oaklawn is not only the prep for the three big races at the track, but could be the begining of what could be an interesting year for On Fire Baby as she takes on the boys in this race.

8th Race - Oaklawn Park - Monday, January 16th, 2012
STAKES. 1 Mile Dirt. Purse $100,000. Smarty Jones S.. THREE YEAR OLDS. No nomination fee. $750 to pass the entry box and $1000 additional to start, Supplementary nominations may be made by the closing time of entries at a fee of $2,500 which qulifies to starts. $100,000 Guaranteed of which 60% to the Owner of the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 5% to fourth, 3% to fifth and 2% to be divided equally between remaining starters. Weights: 122lbs. Non-winners of $40,000 twice allowed 3 lbs.; $30,000 once 5 lbs.; $15,000 once 7 lbs. (Maiden and Claiming races not considered.) In Allowance Stakes starting preference will be given to horses that have accumulated the highest earnings excluding money won in restricted races. Starters to be named through the entry box by the usual time of closing. The Owner of the winner to receive a trophy. Closed Wednesday, January 11, 2012 with 31 nominees. (04:33 PM) (12)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Laurie's Rocket 3 C L 117 Hernandez, Jr. Brian Joseph Stewart Dallas
2 Junebugred 3 C L 115 Bravo Joe Hobby Steve
3 Prince Cheval 3 G L 115 Kuntzweiler Greta Allen Gene
4 No Spin 3 C L b 119 Hill Channing Ice Tim A.
5 Fastestwhogetspaid 3 C L 117 Ocampo Israel Williamson Brian
6 Optimizer 3 C L 115 Thompson Terry J. Lukas D. Wayne
7 Copus 3 G L 117 Felix Julio E. Rainwater Bradlee
8 Jake Mo 3 C L 119 Berry M. Clifton Milligan Allen
9 Hard Nosed 3 G L 115 Santana, Jr. Ricardo Moquett Ron
10 On Fire Baby 3 F 117 Johnson Joe M. Hartlage Gary G.
11 King Coral 3 G L 117 Saez Gabriel Milligan Allen
12 Reckless Jerry 3 C L 117 Laviolette Shane Smith Kenny P

Jake Mo, No Spin, and Optimizer could be the ones to challenge her the most. Laurie's Rocket and Hard Nosed also have faced high quality horses. This won't be an easy race for On Fire Baby, especially since with those horses who I talked about. That being said, she is the class of the field and is undefeated on dirt. My one concern for her going forward is how far she really wants to go, but for now at a mile she is my pick for tomorrow. Should be the start to a fun year at Oaklawn!

Don't forget that the live chat is tomorrow night at 7:30 as the Eclipse Awards get underway at 8 on HRTV.

Charly, Soaring, Flat oh my!

2012-01-13T17:59:00.001-05:00

All three horses who are in my title are in action tomorrow at Gulfstream. Charly and Flat in the Ft. Lauderdale, while Soaring tries to defend his Hal's Hope title.

9th Race - Gulfstream Park - Saturday, January 14th, 2012
STAKES. 1 Mile Dirt. Purse $100,000. Hal's Hope S. (Grade 3). FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. Free Nomination by Saturday December 31, 2011, $1,000 to pass the entry box and $500 additional to start, with $100,000 Guaranteed. All fees shall be paid prior to the start of the race. The owner of the winner to receive $60,000; $20,000 to second, $10,000 to third, $5,000 to fourth, $3,000 to fifth and $2,000 to sixth. Supplemental nominations may be made at time of entries at a fee of $5,000, which includes entry and starting fees. Weight : 123 lbs. Non-winners of a grade I in 2011 allowed 2 lbs; a graded stakes or $60,000 twice at a mile or over in 2011 4 lbs., $45,000 twice at a mile or over in 2011 6 lbs. Starters to be named through the entry box by the usual time of closing. This race will be limited to 14 Starters, with Also Eligibles. If more than fourteen (14) entries pass the entry box preference will be given to graded stakes winners, then highest 2010-2012 earnings. Trophy to winning owner. Nominations Closed Saturday, December 31, 2011 with 21 Nominations. (04:17 PM) (9)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Jackson Bend 5 H L 123 Velazquez John R. Zito Nicholas P.
2 Sky Venture 5 G L 117 Leyva Juan C. Paul Cecil
3 Sangaree 7 H L 117 Maragh Rajiv McLaughlin Kiaran P.
4 Successful Mission 6 G L 121 Trujillo Elvis Plesa, Jr. Edward
5 Decisive Moment 4 C L 121 Madrid Sebastian O. Arias Juan D.
6 Our Dark Knight 5 H L 117 Bravo Joe Zito Nicholas P.
7 Soaring Empire 5 H L 121 Leparoux Julien R. Gambolati Cam M.
8 Cool Blue Red Hot 4 C L 117 Cruz Manoel R. Penna, Jr. Angel J.
9 Will's Wildcat 4 G L 117 Borel Calvin H. Baker James E.

This will be the Sangaree's first race in his new barn since Godolphin decided close it's US operations (he will still be running in Godolphin colors though). Soaring Empire is the defending champ, but stretching out to a mile is what Jackson Bend has been asking for. Our Dark Knight could suprise people as well.

10th Race - Gulfstream Park - Saturday, January 14th, 2012
STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Turf. Purse $100,000. Ft. Lauderdale S. (Grade 3). FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. Free nomination by Saturday December 31, 2011, $1,000 to pass the entry box and $500 additional to start, with $100,000 Guaranteed. All fees shall be paid prior to the start of the race. The owner of the winner to receive $60,000, $20,000 to second, $10,000 to third, $5,000 to fourth, $3,000 to fifth and $2,000 to sixth. Supplemental nominations may be made at time of entry for a fee of $5,000, which includes entry and starting fees. Weight: 123 lbs. Non-winners of a gradeI or II stakes on the turf in 2011 allowed 2 lbs.; of a sweepstakes at a mile or over on the turf since July 1, 4lbs., $45,000 at a mile or over since August 1, 6 lbs. Starters to be named through the entry box by the usual time of closing. This race willl be limited to 14 Starters, with Also Eligibles. If more than fourteen (14) entries pass the entry box preference will be given to graded stakes winners, then highest 2010-2012 earnings. Trophy to the winning owner. Nominations Closed on Saturday, December 31, 2011 with 38 Nominations. (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One Mile and One Sixteenth). (04:45 PM) (14)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Uptowncharlybrown 5 H L b 117 Maragh Rajiv Coletti, Sr. Edward J.
2 Santiva 4 C L 117 Castanon Jesus Lopez Walsh Brendan P.
3 Guys Reward 5 H L 117 Centeno Daniel Romans Dale L.
4 Yummy With Butter 8 G L 121 Lopez Paco Belsoeur Yvon
5 Mutual Trust (GB) 4 C L 123 Lezcano Jose Mott William I.
6 Mambo Meister 7 G L 117 Bravo Joe Gleaves Philip A.
7 Teaks North 5 G L 123 Leyva Juan C. Sallusto Justin
8 Flat Out 6 H L 119 Solis Alex O. Dickey Charles L.
9 Hollinger 5 G L 117 Velazquez John R. Attfield Roger L.
10 Silver Medallion 4 C L 121 Castellano Javier Pletcher Todd A.
11 Hoofit (NZ) 5 G L 117 Prado Edgar S. Motion H. Graham
12 Kindergarden Kid 5 G L 121 Leparoux Julien R. Tagg Barclay
13 Cool Blue Red Hot 4 C L 117 Cruz Manoel R. Penna, Jr. Angel J.
14 Flatter This 5 H L 119 Jurado Luis O'Connell Kathleen

Obviously the big reason why Flat Out is in here and not the Hal's Hope is for feet reasons (he's had quarter cracks in the past). Yummy with Butter won two stakes last year, but had faultered down the stretch. Hoofit was screwed in the BC Turf Sprint by being basically taken out of the race, Hollinger was third last time out in a G3. Charly is trying to rebound from 2 4th place finishes, Teaks North shocked everyone in the UN, but faultered down the stretch. Santiva ran in the Derby and Belmont, but this is only his second start since June.

Picks
Hal's Hope: Jackson
Ft. L: Flat Out

The Smarty Jones on Monday will feature a boys vs girl senerio as On Fire Baby starts her campaign for possible try at the Derby. Don't forget about the live chat on Monday as well!

Eclipse Live Chat Announcement

2012-01-12T17:58:00.001-05:00

On Monday beginning at 7:30 pm and going till the end of the ceremonies, I will be hosting a Live Chat for the Eclipses. We'll be talking about HOY predictions as well as category predictions. As usual Cover It Live will be the software of choice for the chat.

Hope to see you there!

New Look

2012-01-09T18:42:00.001-05:00

Hey guys! As you can see, there is a new look to the blog. Why do this? For a few reasons:

The blog has looked the same for several years and I wanted to have a little bit of a change.
The content of the blog will be changing a little bit as well. I'm hoping to have more track stories and stakes previews as well as recaps.
There will be more of a focus on the Turf horses this upcoming year, but will still be previewing the major dirt races including the Derby and Oaks.

That's really it for now. I'll have more of a post later this week.

Eclipse Finalists and Picks

2012-01-05T15:55:00.000-05:00

There are only 11 days until the Eclipse Awards are held. Today, the finalists for all the catagories (except for Horse of the Year) where annonounced. Pretty much cut and dry with a few suprises, here are they are with my picks.

2-Year-Old Male: Creative Cause, Hansen, Union Rags

No suprise these where the three best horses in this catagory this year. It's really between Hansen and Union Rags. While the former has the better numbers on paper, the latter beat him where it counted... on the track. For that reason Hansen wins.

2-Year-Old Filly: Grace Hall, My Miss Aurelia, Stephanie's Kitten

Aurelia might go unanimous here, but the suprising thing won't be that. It will be that Weemissfrankie was shut out and going with Stephanie instead. Grace H. right now is my early #1 for the Oaks.

3-Year-Old Male: Animal Kingdom, Caleb's Posse, Shackleford

Many people think that Animal Kingdom deserves it in a bit of an odd year for the 3yo's. However, Caleb won 2 G1's over a 2yo Champ (Uncle Mo) and a TC race winner (Shack).

3-Year-Old Filly: It's Tricky, Plum Pretty, Royal Delta

Another cut and dry catagory, Delta just didn't beat the other 2 once in the Alabama, but she did it again in the BC.

Older Male: Acclamation, Game on Dude, Tizway

One of two catagories that are wide open. Any of these horses could win this catagory and I wouldn't have a problem with it. The early favorite is Game On Dude, but I'm thinking Acclamation will steal the prize.

Older Female: Awesome Maria, Blind Luck, Havre de Grace

A. All three horses especially the one of the middle are good horses. B. If this is not unanimous for Grace, then I have no clue.

Male Sprinter: Amazombie, Caleb's Posse, Regally Ready

As much as love Caleb, only 2 of his races this year where under a mile (Amsterdam and King's Bishop) for that I wouldn't have put him here. With that being said, the sprinting catagory was another "odd" catagory this year. I love that a turf sprinter is a finalist, but Amazombie flat out deserves this award.

Female Sprinter: Hilda's Passion, Musical Romance, Sassy Image

This one is more wide open IMO then Older Male. A coin toss has to be made and I gotta go with Sassy's Image. It would be only the second time that the BC F/M Sprint winner would not win the division. That is if this happens.

Male Turf Horse: Acclamation, Cape Blanco , St Nicholas Abbey

Cape Blanco is going to win... I'm hoping though that St. Nicholas Abbey split the vote enough for Acclamation to get close enough to make it a tight race.

Female Turf Horse: Dubawi Heights, Perfect Shirl, Stacelita

People are a little disapointed that Never Retreat is not nominated. With that said, Stacelita should win in what I think is the weakest division.

Steeplechase Horse: Black Jack Blues, Decoy Daddy, Tax Ruling

Abstain

Owner: Midwest Thoroughbreds, Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey, Team Valor

Gotta go with Team KJ here, Ken and Sarah Ramsey.

Breeder: Adena Springs, Brereton C. Jones, Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey

Adena owns this division, I think it's time for some new blood. Going with Gov. Jones.

Trainer: Bob Baffert, Bill Mott, Todd Pletcher

The Dudes, Delta/Dross or Mo. Humm... That BC sweep for Bill is prob. more then enough to get the win. And the last time that he won the Classic he was the Champion trainer (both years that Cigar won HOY actually).

Jockey: Javier Castellano, Ramon Dominguez, John Velazquez

You have a jockey who finised strong, a jockey who is the regular rider on the no doubt about it Champion Older Female, and a jockey who finally got off the Derby shinde a year after his go to trainer did. Either way the award is heading to NY where all three are based. I guess I have to with Javier by default, but I hope Ramon gets it.

Apprentice Jockey: Ryan Curatolo, Kyle Frey, Rosario Montanez

abstain

As for who I think will be the three HOY candiates, I'm thinking Grace will def. be one, either Acclamation or Game On Dude with be the second and Cape Blanco, Union Rags, Hansen, or Aurilea will be third. My HOY pick is... Havre de Grace, I think she just did too much this year defeating Flat Out and Royal Delta, as well as her duel with Blind Luck will be more then enough to become the third female in a row to be HOY.

Good luck to all those who are nominated.

10 Horses I'm Looking Foward to This Year (3 and Older Only)

2012-01-04T11:38:00.000-05:00

With the year just getting underway, I thought I would share the 10 horses that I'm looking foward to seeing this year. In by no means these are the 10 best horses, but most of these horses are graded stakes winners. I hope you enjoy! (Note: All these horses are not by Hard Spun (whose foal blog I also run) although I'm looking foward to them as well.)

10. And Why Not (Street Cry (IRE))- Closing like a train in the Pocahontas, her pedigree says that she should handle 2 turns easily. Could turn out to be a good 1-2 punch for Michael Matz with her and Union Rags.

9. Caleb's Posse (Posse)- The possible 3yo Champion could even get better at 4. Should dominate the Dirt Mile division with some challenge from Shackleford (unless he stretches out again). I wouldn't even be suprised if he stretches out again either.

8. Hansen (Tapit)- Prob. not the likley Derby winner, but he hasn't done much wrong in his career so far. Could have a rematch with Union Rags in Florida.

7. Royal Delta (Empire Maker)- Before you say she's too low! The reason why she is ranked so low is, there are several horses in her own stable that I'm very excited about. That, and I'm not a fan of her new owner.

6. Shackleford (Forestry)- By far my favorite TC race winner from last year, he ran his heart out only to get beat by Caleb in the BC. Would be fun if they faced off at Oaklawn in the OakCap.

5. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway)- This is a horse who is now being overshadowed a bit in his homestate. Would not be suprised if he wins the SA Derby.

4. Dullahan (Even the Score)- Sigh it's a flat out shame his brother is Mine That Bird. I really like this guy and he could turn out to be a special one. He has the right trainer to do it with.

3. To Honor and Serve (Bernardini) and Brillant Speed (Dynaformer)- Although they have the same owner, they are in two different stables. Could be a big year for Live Oak on dirt and turf if these two hold their 3yo form.

2. Now I Know (Pure Prize)- Could she suprise everyone by coming out of nowhere? It will be interesting how well she does on the Oaks trail.

1. Havre de Grace (Saint Liam)- What you where expecting someone else? It's amazing that she is coming back for her 5 year season. FHF could have easily decided to retire her (which in honestly if she had won the Classic I would have expected), but they didn't. She and her now retired rival gave the race of the year in the Delaware Handicap and then won the Woodward and beat Royal Delta in the Beldame. She is supposed to be at the Fair Grounds tomorrow getting ready for possibly a defence of her Apple Blossom title. Will be fun to see what this possible future HOY has in store for this year.

Happy New Year

2012-01-01T19:43:00.000-05:00

Hi all! Stakes posts and other things will be returning next week. I hope you all had a wonder holiday season!

Let foal watch for Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta begin!

Orfevre- Japan's Future Arc winner?

2011-12-29T17:10:00.000-05:00

It's been a year of highs and lows for Japan. The lows being the devastating earthquake and tsunami that caused nuclear reactor failures around the country. The highs being Victore Pisa and Transend's 1-2 finish in the Dubai World Cup, the Women's soccer team winning the World Cup (much to the chagrin of me since they defeated the US in the final), and Buena Vista's much desereved Japan Cup win (after she was DQ'ed the year before). However, for the first time since 2005 when Deep Impact was the Japanese superstar, a horse won all three legs of the Triple Crown. Orfevre made even more history on Christmas when he defeated the now retired Buena Vista in the season ending Arima Kinen.

Dubai is possibly next for the son of Stay Gold, but that is not the ultimate goal. The Japansese want to win the Arc. Nakayama Festa has been the closest Japan trained horse to the top spot (second in last year's Arc to Workforce), but no Japanese based runner has won (Danedream who is co-owned by Japanese interests is based in Germany) the race. It's too early to tell weather Orfevre can follow in the footsteps of Deep Impact, Vodka and Buena Vista and become a true international horse. One thing's for sure, he certinally has Japan buzzing about his exploits on home soil.

Previewing the 2012 Freshman Sire Class

2011-12-20T12:24:00.000-05:00

As deep as this year's group of Freshman sires where, next year's I can't really find a clear cut standout. Hard Spun and Street Sense where freshman sires this year, the final member of the "Big 3" Curlin will have his first crop his the track next year. He won't be alone either with several other nice horses including:

Brother Derek
Big Brown
Circular Quay
Cowtown Cat
Divine Park
Heatseeker
Henrythenavagator
Lewis Michael
Midnight Lute
Nobiz Like Shobiz
Raven's Pass
Red Giant
Showing Up (squee!!!)
Street Boss
Street Hero
Student Council

Much like Bernardini who suprised everyone by siring 3 2yo winning G1 winners, I'll be suprised if Curlin sires a G1 winner. Big Brown is going to have a tough time with such great turf horses like Showing, Nobiz, Red, Raven and Henry in the same crop. While Boss and Hero (with Hero's career being cut short) where nice horses, Lute should be okay in the sprint division. Derek and Student should put on a good showing for the milers. The others listed, I'm not 100% sure how well they will be do.

So who am I looking for to the most? My Stallions to watch this year are bit of the turfy side of things. I'm excited to see Showing Up, Red Giant, Nobiz Like Shobiz's first crop, along with Midnight Lute, Lewis Michael and Curlin.

Now go watch an unknown name be the Leading Freshman Stallion :P

Oaks and Derby Very Early Top Five

2011-12-18T20:59:00.000-05:00

Hard to believe, but we are only a little bit over four months away from the Oaks and Derby. It will be interesting who will be the top dog going into the preps which begin in mid-Jan/Early Feb. However, here are my top 5 for now for both the Derby and the Oaks.

Derby

1. Hansen (Tapit): A huge win over Union Rags in the Juvenile, he came out of Turfway of all places to become the best thing since well... Hanson's "Umm Bop". My one concern is that Tapit's tend to get a very fast start, but tend to tail off quickly.

2. Union Rags (Dixie Union): He got a bit of a crummy ride in the Juvenile, but showed that he could go a mile and a sixteenth. Not 100% sold that a mile and a quarter is his game, but we'll see what happens.

3. Liaison (Indian Charlie): Unlike the other IC colt that everyone was raving about last year and this year... this one has a bit of clout to him. His dam and granddam are both by Belmont winners (Victory Gallop and AP Indy), so the stamina is there. Of course he gets his speed from dad. That combo might be just enough to the finish line first. But then there is the soundness issue that Charlie has passed along, lets hope he stays that way.

4. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway): A horse who maybe a wiseguy choice come Derby day. He'll have a tough time this winter going against Liaison and others such as Hierro. Right now, he's the horse who I would love to see to win the Derby the most.

5. Dullahan (Even the Score): Unlike his brother who shall remain nameless, Dullahan has run well in the BC finishing a closing fourth. While he won't be a Champion in Canada like big brother was as a 2yo, he could still have a chance on something that he missed out on, an Eclipse Championship.

Others Considered: Gemologist, Sabercat, Souper Speedy, O'Prado Again, Hierro

Oaks

1. Grace Hall (Empire Maker): Could she help get her dad home if she wins the Oaks next year? Prob. not, but with Weemissfrankie injured and My Miss Aurelia getting some time off as well she vaults into the #1 spot. Runner up in the BC Juvenile Fillies, she won the Spinaway then went back to her hometrack to win the Blue Hen before her race at Churchill. The 3yo Females in Florida could be the deepest in years, will be fun to see what happens.

2. Dixie Strike (Dixie Union): Prob. a Woodbine Oaks contender more then Kentucky, but I'm putting her here anyway. Her 1/2 sister is this year's Oaks/Queen's Plate winner Inglorious, who herself is by Hennesy so really a mile and eighth shouldn't be a big problem with her since her dam has not had a problem throwing distance horses with sprinter/miler stallions.

3. Now I Know (Pure Prize): Coming from OK, might work to her advantange. However, that could also be an disadvantage because she will now have to face horses of better quality. She'll have to pick up her game if she wants to hang with the big girls.

4. Questing (GB) (Hard Spun): Sure she was fifth in her US debut, but she's Group placed in England and she's remaining in the US to run as a 3yo. She's out of a Seeking the Gold mare, so the stamina is there. She'll give Grace Hall some fits if they face off against each other.

5. On Fire Baby (Smoke Glacken): We know she loves Churchill (2 for 2), and the Golden Rod has been a pretty good indicator on how well a horse does as a 3yo. The question is if she can get that extra sixteenth. I'm not sure on it, but alot of people didn't think Plum Pretty could either.

Others considered: Inny Minnie, Yvete Sangalo (MEX), Killer Graces, Disposablepleasure

Posts coming soon

2011-12-14T10:50:00.001-05:00

I should have some posts in the upcoming days. Sorry about that. :(