TBA Feed #1

Alkalinization, Lasix and Milkshaking: A Veterinarian’s View

noreply@blogger.com (HANA) — Sat, 26 May 2012 18:30:00 +0000

World Ace Early Favorite For Derby

noreply@blogger.com (starsfaraway) — Sat, 26 May 2012 09:56:00 +0000

After closing Saturday betting round, World Ace has been installed as the favorite for the 2012 Japanese Derby(Tokyo Yushun) at odds of 2.9(19/10). Gold Ship was the second favorite at 3.1(21/10) followed by Deep Brillante at 8.9(79/10).

The Nomination Is In: The Met Mile for the Thorofan Handicappers Corner

noreply@blogger.com (The Turk) — Sat, 26 May 2012 04:36:00 +0000

Welcome to the 2012 Metropolitan Handicap, better known as the Met Mile. Before I go to far, I'd like to thank The Thorofan for inviting the Ol' Turk to handicap for the esteemed Handicappers Corner.

For those of you not familiar with The Thorofan, I gravitated to them because their stated goals appealed to me:

Retain and enrich existing fans.

Seek out and attract new fans including those who are unable for physical or other limitations have not yet had the opportunity.

Give each fan, regardless of involvement, a voice to the industry regarding their interests in the betterment of the sport.

Hard to argue with that, and I am happy to promote an organization that I am a proud member of.

The Met Mile is part of my Memorial Day tradition. I honor our American War dead in the morning, gather with family in the afternoon, and we make this race part of the late afternoon activities. As a horse racing fan, and a person trying to promote the sport, I always try to make the races part of our family traditions, showing my love for the sport to the nieces, nephews, friends and future thorofans.

So with that build up, I'll be honest, seeing a six horse field doesn't thrill me. Superfecta is out, and if there is a scratch, ugh, it will be something similar to the Winchester, embedded below. As a horse racing fan I'll enjoy seeing some of my favorite horses contest this prestigious race, but as a bettor, I'd generally pass on a six horse field.

With a favorite that will be less than 2-1 and perhaps a post time chalk at 8-5, what do we do with this, how do we plan? Looking at the wager menu, Exacta, Trifecta and the Double are the bets de jour, and I think I'll target a value exacta. A value exacta Turk? Yes, we are going to toss the presumptive chalk and piece together no more than 4 combinations, or $8 worth of $2 exactas on the hunt for a will pay that at least doubles our investment or a bet that pays out greater than $16.

My initial read of the six horse field is that the quality of horses and the competitiveness of this race is high, with 5 of 6 runners currently millionaires. You know, many eleven horse fields have the same or fewer quality runners as this group, but it's those five other horses that help to keep the prices slightly more attractive. Nothing like a Duke of Mischief, a Mucho Macho Man or a Wilburn to drive an 8-5 back to 3-1.

I find it helpful to assess current form first. To do that I like to visual handicap, a combination of trip handicapping and visual appearance of the horses, especially in the last 1/8 of a mile and the gallop out. You Tube is a great resource for this sort of thing, even if sometimes you may have to hunt an peck a bit to find what you are looking for. I've gathered some of the key races that I think will help me decoded today's field.

2012 Affirmed Success Stakes Restricted NY STATE 7f

2012 Carter Handicap 7f

2012 Churchill Downs 7f

2012 Winchester 1 Mile

2011 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile

There are a few things not to like about the 2011 Preakness Stakes Winner, Shackleford; Romans and Velazquez are winless together over past year, Velazquez is up in place of regular pilot Castanon, Velazquez is only a 7% winner at Belmont right now. Continuing to pile on, the horse is winless at the distance, winless at Belmont, and has only one win, his last in the Churchill Downs since the Preakness. All that said, I don't believe he'll be the bettors chalk and I'm installing him as my chalk and my single in the great exacta value hunt. I got the negatives out of the way, on the positives side of the ledger, a gutty stretch run in his last race and a decent enough effort in the Carter Handicap.

I am a big Jackson Bend fan; 19 of 25 in the money, 6 of last 7 races in triple digit Beyers. The 5 YO son of Hear No Evil has only one win in five tries at the distance, winless in two starts at Belmont, 18 of 22 in the money on fast dirt.

I expect the bettor's will reward Caleb's Posse with the chalk; Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile reigning champ, 2011 King's Bishop winner, with last two races lost by a combined neck and nose. Trainer Von Hemel, with Maragh up, combine for 43% winners. Trainer Von Hemel has a 31% win rate in graded stakes. I think the race sets up perfect for him, as he'll be off the lead and will have at least three targets to shoot for. I suspect he'll be wide out of the turn and he'll make his run there.

In the "one of these things is not like the other" category, Saginaw makes a big class jump up to enter this race. Trainer David Jacobson felt pretty good about his chances and runs him back on eleven days rest after winning the NY State restricted Affirmed Success Stakes. The six year old gelding has three wins at Belmont and is 12 of 13 in the money at the distance and 11 of 15 in the money on fast dirt.

It doesn't seem possible that Caixa Eletronica is seven years old, but he is, and he makes a whopping 53 start in this race and is 35 of 52 in the money, with 7 wins in his last 16 starts. A winner off the pace in the Charles Town Classic last time out, his best efforts come right off the pace, but it will be an almost career best for him to strike a win against this group and even Place seems unlikely. I think I found my value, now he has to do the work.

Trainer Mott's To Honor and Serve is a fine horse, winner of the Winchester last time out. He's 2 of 2 at Belmont and 3 of 3 at one mile and 10 of 12 in the money on fast dirt. All that said, I'm lukewarm on him. Mott and Lezcano do win 32% of the time together at Belmont.

There is quite a bit to like about To Honor and Serve and I wouldn't be surprised if he won this race. I'm more impressed by the quality of the field now since I went a bit deeper on the analysis, but you can't cover everybody.

Today's handicapping and betting exercise is really more about the bet construction than the handicap. I made a decision early on to bet Exacta and I made a decision to slot the bettors chalk no higher than Place. I'll bet no more than $6 to $8 dollars making straight Exacta Bets that single my chalk, Shackleford, and then cover everyone with the current exception of To Honor and Serve. Does that mean I like Saginaw more than To Honor and Serve? No, but this isn't a popularity contest, we are betting real money and I'm willing to risk $8 to make $16 or more and Saginaw represents that chance more than To Honor and Serve. Maybe the better argument is should I cover To Honor and Serve to Place and drop Caleb's Posse, especially if 8-5, and the answer is maybe.

You can't cover everyone friends; It's not good money management to lose bets, we can all agree on that, but its also not good money management to risk alot of capital on a small return, made smaller because you threw in an extra horse. If you have to do that, take more time becoming a better handicapper and save your capital for when you are ready.

I know it's a smallish field, made possibly smaller if Saginaw runs on the 27th as is possible, so gather your family around the TV at race time and try and make the race, perhaps not this particular edition of the race, a real family tradition like I have in mine. That's the true spirit of The Thorofan, bringing fans back.

Turk Out!

American Handicap - Foreigner's Delight?

noreply@blogger.com (tencentcielo) — Sat, 26 May 2012 02:43:00 +0000

The stakes action this Memorial Day weekend at the track of the lakes and flowers starts off on Saturday with the Grade 2 American Handicap. This race used to be run on the other national holiday of the Spring, Fourth of July until recently. But with the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile being shifted to that weekend, this race took its place on the calendar as a prep for that race. This mile on the grass brought together a diverse group of runners, some foreign-born and some domestic. This race has a nice mix of established runners and newcomers to the stakes level. Let's get to the action, starting with the morning line favorite.

Mr. Commons looks to rebound after failing as the favorite in the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile at Santa Anita on the Big Cap undercard. He has worked steadily for this race for the last two months for this race after taking a couple of weeks off to refresh himself. His trainer John Shirreffs has said that this is a prep for the Shoemaker, so it is possible that he could not be fully cranked for the race. Mr. C has run well of similar layoffs, winning both times off similar layoffs. He figures to get a nice pace set-up in the race with the presence of several speed horses. He has been heavily bet in most of his races, and he once again figures to be a unplayable price, and this blog will play against him in the win spot.

The other Americans who have a chance are Compari, whose rail draw will force this front-runner to commit to making the pace. He comes off a good effort in the G3 San Simeon H last time, with three turf works since the last race. Calimonco, who has done well at the listed stakes level and run fast enough to win this but has not won in graded stakes company. He finished 4th in the Grade 3 San Francisco Mile last time out. He has two solid works since the last race. Mobilized is coming off a smart win in the state-bred Tiznow Stakes. He has done better in extended one-turn races than in two-turn races. He does have two smart works and the trainer was quoted that he entered him instead of another race next week because he was doing so well.

The foreign-born contenders are headed by Tigah (GB). Trained by John Sadler (who also trains Calimonco), Tigah won a 2nd level allowance two races back in nice time. Running an okay 4th off a two month layoff last time out, he comes back 2nd off the layoff, just like his allowance win. He has two solid works since the last race and figures to get a solid pace to run at in here. Barney Rebel (IRE) wired an allowance field last time out across town, running a fast time in the process. Barney gets 8 pounds from the favorite and with his light impost, he will be winging on the front end in attempt to steal the race. Venomous
(GB) looks to return to his first run off the plane last year in the Oak Tree Derby. His trainer has hit for a price with a horse off a similar layoff, with a series of nice works in tow.

Race Analysis: Liberian Freighter is a confirmed need-the-lead type coming off a layoff. His presence ensures that either Compari or Barney Rebel will not get an easy lead, forcing them to rate off the pace. Great Warrior and Calimonco will be in the next flight, with the rest of the runners behind them. It figures to be a trip race, where the runner who can find a way through the pack can get up in time over those who take the overland route. Tigah figures to huge the rail and hope it opens up turning for home, and he is the pick. It will be in a tight photo with Calimonco, Venomous and Mr. Commons, who will all be in the fight for the minor awards.

Good luck folks!

British Farrier Banned for 90 Days for Damaging Former Client's Horses

noreply@blogger.com (Fran Jurga) — Sat, 26 May 2012 02:35:00 +0000

Not your average 'Joe'...

noreply@blogger.com (Keith McCalmont) — Fri, 25 May 2012 22:34:00 +0000

“Everybody loves a winner,” says trainer Norm McKnight in regard to hard-trying gelding Consolidator Joe.

Unraced as a two-year-old, the RMC Stable homebred by Consolidator out of Ascot Tobie (Ascot Knight) came from out of the clouds to win his debut by three-quarters of a length.

It was the first of five wins on the season for the dark bay fellow, one in which he banked $178,873 in purse earnings while dominating the upper claiming ranks at Woodbine, so it was hardly surprising on Thursday morning when I went by his barn for a visit that ‘Joe’ seemed to enjoy having his picture taken.

“He’s a gutsy little guy,” says McKnight. “He tries every time. He’s got a few little aches and pains, but he seems to live with them. He’s a real neat horse, easy to train, easy to be around and he goes over there runs his guts out every time. If they were all like that, the game would be a lot easier.”

In nine lifetime starts, Consolidator Joe has maintained a perfect in-the-money percentage, with six wins, a second and two thirds.

“If you gave me five more of him, I could get rid of ten of the other ones,” laughs McKnight. “He’s just a great individual. He has a great disposition, and loves being at the track”

McKnight also loves being around the track - - any track, really.

He got his start in the harness racing game as a trainer and driver - - and a good one at that, notching 1,476 wins from the bike including a memorable win in the Confederation Cup at Flamboro Downs steering Arcane Hanover to a new stakes, track, and Canadian record of 1:53.3.

McKnight wins the Confederation Cup with Arcane Hanover

Joe by a neck!

(You can read all about McKnight’s move from bike to saddle in this fine piece by Rob Longley for the Thoroughbred Times.)

McKnight, who knew how to find the wire on the limestone, jokes that he would have leaped at the chance to ride a horse on the Polytrack.

“I galloped my own horses for 15 years, but the novelty wore off,” he starts. “I used to ride show horses and American Saddlebreds when I was younger and do the show horse route. I probably could have tried it (being a jockey) for the sake of doing it. Some of the jocks are taller than I am...I was 150lbs when I came here. I’d of had to lose 40lbs.”

And then, casually glancing at his own midsection, he laughs, “It probably wouldn’t have worked!”

With 250 wins to his credit as a thoroughbred trainer, and nearly $9-million in earnings, McKnight has no regrets about switching breeds.

“The thing I like most is the hours,” he says. “I don’t mind getting up in the morning, and the afternoon racing is great as opposed to harness horses racing at night. With harness horses, you never have any kind of social life. At least here you have the odd time to get out for dinner. In harness, you’re married to the job 24 hours a day. Back then, I was training horses all morning and then driving them at night.”

And having a not-so-average 'Joe' to train makes his life that much easier.
“He’s the most consistent horse in the barn,” says McKnight. “It’s a nice little barn. A nice group of horses, no standouts, but they all try and when they’re slotted in the right races they all show up.”

Consolidator Joe, who stomps about the shed row with the presence of a stakes winner, earned his sixth lifetime win on the Victoria Day weekend with a stubborn, driving score to nail Zip It Nance by a nose earning a career-best 84 Beyer Figure.

The gelding’s nose for the wire leave’s the conditioner with something of a conundrum as to where to race the horse next.

“There comes a time when you have to run them for a tag and you have to run them where they can win,” says McKnight. “The game is no fun when you’re running up the track all the time. Winning is a whole lot more fun than losing.

“He’s great little horse and he’s gone through all his conditions so now he gets in where he has to run tougher all the time. He’s been real good to us and if I can make it where it’s a little easier on him to win races, that would be what I want to do.”

Consolidator Joe refuses to lose

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

"He's like one of those throwback horses. The more you do with him, the better he gets. we had to really rush to get him to the Plate, and you would think that would have knocked him out, but it didn't. He's a very good horse." - - Mike De Paulo to the DRF on the hard-trying Pender Harbour who returns in Saturday's Eclipse Stakes at Woodbine.

TWEET OF THE WEEK

"No matter how many of my own sex tapes I leak, I will never be as famous and rich as Kim Kardashian. What am I doing wrong?" - - Exercise rider / ex-jock @MikeMehak seeking your assistance on an alternative route to fame and fortune.

RACE CALL OF THE WEEK

"Contreras trying to squeeze every last ounce of run out of River Lemon..." - - Dan Loiselle gets punny in the stretch run of Wednesday's fourth race. The sweet call only soured when Apres Midi wouldn't let River Lemon by.

THIS AND THAT

Rob Longley spoke at length with trainer Terry Jordan who found horse racing's next big star, Mario Gutierrez while vacationing in Mexico:

From the moment Jordan saw the poise and balance Mario Gutierrez showed in the saddle that day at Hipodromo de Las Americas, he was certain he had his man.

“He just looked like he belonged up there,” said Jordan, then a top trainer at Hastings and now a regular at Toronto’s Woodbine Racetrack. “He rode with the stirrups very, very short and when you do that, you have to have good balance.

“He just looked like he would turn out to be something big.”

Six years later, the entire racing world is getting a taste of just how big.

David Willberg writes about his annual pilgrimmage to Assiniboia Downs and a chance to watch I'll Have Another via simulcast:

For those seeking a Canadian connection, you have good reason to root for I'll Have Another. The super horse is owned by Canadians from Windsor, Ontario. Its Mexican jockey, Mario Gutierrez, was the top jockey a couple times at Hastings Park in Vancouver. Even the horse's chiropractor (yes, thoroughbreds have chiropractors) played for former Estevan Bruins coach Ernie "Punch" McLean with the New Westminster Bruins.

On a personal note, my parents know Gutierrez from his time in Vancouver.
I'll Have Another isn't a super horse like Seattle Slew, Secretariat or Citation, but if he were to win those three races, it would be a monumental accomplishment. Some fantastic horses have won the Derby and the Preakness in the last 20 years, only to lose in the daunting mile-and-a-half test of endurance that is the Belmont.

Ever wondered how Beyer Figures are created? The DRF recently published 'The science behind Beyer Figures':

Essentially, figure makers want to know how fast a horse ran in relation to the speed of the track he ran on. Surface speeds change day to day, depending on weather, maintenance, and many other factors.

Think of it this way. You have two human runners of equal ability in a race. They run side by side, one on sand, the other on concrete. Obviously, the runner on concrete is going to win every time.

If all track surfaces were uniform, final times would be sufficient to tell us with horse is faster. But they are not.
Andrew Beyer’s classic mid-1970s book “Picking Winners” explained the methodology behind the figures and explained the unexplainable to many players, including me. The raw times of races were converted to numbers to make the calculations less cumbersome.

STILL NEED MORE?

As always, keep track of the latest goings on in the world of horse racing by clicking into TripleDeadHeat's Woodbine News page or join in on the conversation by following TripleDeadHeat on Twitter.

PHOTO FINISH

The Woodbine Oaks is set for June 3 and I visited a number of the potential contenders on Thursday morning.

Waitinginthewings surrounded by ducks

Will she 'wing' it and go to the Oaks?

Can Northern Passion emerge from the shadow of her stablemate Dixie Strike?

Black Bird Rock should ensure a swift pace

Can Dixie Strike sweep the Oaks/Plate double?

Awesome Fire enjoys her bath

and she has a sense of humour!

Awesome Fire will have to keep her on the prize

Awesome sponge putting out the fire...

Irish Mission smiles at first asking

The Mark Frostad filly certainly sparkles

Maybe Consolidator Joe will race on the undercard...

"I don't really care about your sister..."

When In Doubt, Bet the Cat Horse – Sheepshead Bay Stakes Preview

Fri, 25 May 2012 22:11:31 +0000

Crowds will overrun Belmont Park in 2 weeks as I’ll Have Another tries to win the Triple Crown. This weekend? Crickets.

Regardless, there’s a nifty betting opportunity with Belmont’s late Pick 4 – $350K guaranteed pool, 50 cent min bet (Races 7 – 10). The Pick 4 is all the more intriguing as every leg is on the turf (conditions permitting) meaning large fields and the likelihood of a massive payout.

Belmont’s marquee race of the day is the G2 Sheepshead Bay Stakes, leg 2 in the Pick 4. It should also provide an early look at possible contenders for the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf later this year.

The race certainly isn’t easy to handicap as I can make a case for almost every horse in the race. For the Pick 4 I’m looking for a horse that can win at big odds and possibly knock out a lot of tickets. #2 MAGICAL CAT at 20-1 on the morning line may fit the bill. This Irish-bred filly is lightly raced with 2 wins in 4 lifetime starts. After being off since Aug 11, she won an allowance at Aqueduct and is stretching out in distance and stepping up in class.

The favorites are formidable in #5 ARUNA (3-1), #4 HIT IT RICH (7/2), and #3 AQSAAM (4-1) and I will be using all of them with MAGICAL CAT in my exactas and trifectas. #7 DISTORTED LEGACY (6-1) may get overlooked and provides wagering value at double-digit odds. She did not disgrace herself finishing 4th in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf and was the best of the rest when facing Stacelita in last year’s G.1 Flower Bowl. #6 PRINCIPAL ROLE (6-1) looks quite capable as well and may have had an excuse in her last race when finishing 3rd in the G3 Beaugay at Belmont.

Our own "Magical Cat"

The horse with the most upside, and perhaps the most value, is the one stepping up in class – #2 MAGICAL CAT. Far from a sure thing, but I will not leave her off my tickets.

Here’s hoping she’s well placed and rolling home late!

Horsemen react to MTHA changes with hope, caution

Fri, 25 May 2012 16:52:57 +0000

A good first step — with plenty of emphasis on “good” and “first.” That was the broadly held view of horsemen responding to decisions reached Wednesday evening by the directors of the Maryland Thoroughbred Horsemen’s Association (MTHA). We spoke, on- and off-the-record, with about a dozen horsemen, many but not all of whom had previously …

Friday, Pondering Slots

noreply@blogger.com (Pull the Pocket) — Fri, 25 May 2012 16:50:00 +0000

It seems every time we open a news story on racing, it's about slots, or gaming. In Ontario, slots are being expanded without any help to racetracks - by the looks of it - and even full casinos will be coming online. In Ohio, a first racino is opening at Scioto Downs. In Illinois, the state house approved expanded slots gaming just this week.

A lot of people are excited about the positives of the above, but it got me thinking, how long can this last?

I was at a gaming conference a few years ago, presenting about new forms of wagering. On my panel was a professional player and the Managing Director of Betfair at the time, Mark Davies. Not long after we finished I had asked Mark if he could hang out and chat some horse racing, and how it was doing on betfair, etc. The professional player, Mark and I sat down and had a nice talk.

At one point, the pro - who works numbers constantly, is super-bright, and is generally right about a lot of things gambling related - said to us:

"I think slots have about ten more years. They're going to be saturated and younger people will get tired of losing all their money."

That stuck with me. On this Friday, when I see their proliferation, it makes me wonder. One day, not long from now will slot parlors be one big empty chasm? Where will governments go for easy money if it happens? What will the younger generations of slots players be playing instead if so?

It's why I have firmly believed that horseracing needs to carve out its niche - we need to have smart, dedicated people playing our sport, via every means possible: Futures markets, betfair, on-track, off-track, fixed odds, fractional wagering; the whole kitchen sink.

Young people do not want to learn racing, as racing is presented to them, so we need to be aggressive in presenting it to them in the way they want it presented. The more people we attract now to play via various mechanisms will be there when people get tired of slots. If they want to learn and come over, we need to ensure we're open for business, right now, not in the future.

Where have all the horses gone?

Fri, 25 May 2012 14:22:52 +0000

May has been a great month of racing. It really has. I mean the unfolding saga of I’ll Have Another alone is enough to put a smile on the face of a discerning race fan. And besides the magic that comes from a potential Triple Crown winner, the amount of good older horses around, of either gender, is frankly something we have not seen for a while. So what has turned my mood slightly sour today? Field size.

May 28 at Belmont Park was literally a racing card that I’ve literally been looking forward to for months. The Met Mile is one of my favorites. Some of the best horses in America always look at this Memorial Day feature as a key race the first half of the year, and let me tell you, this one-turn mile is every bit the test that the three-year olds will face in the 2012 Belmont Stakes. It’s eight furlongs of all-out equine courage and class. Throw in a pair of grade 1 biggies for the distaff set in the Acorn and the Ogden Phipps, and you had the making of one of the cards of the year. I was geeked. Now I am not.

As I learned of the entries today, I could not help but to say, “that’s all?”

Molson Pace Night

noreply@blogger.com (Pull the Pocket) — Fri, 25 May 2012 13:08:00 +0000

Tonight at 9:40EDT the $300,000 Molson Pace sets sail, with a pretty competitive group of horses. You can read about all the things Western Fair is trying to do with the event on Harness racing update (p3, pdf)

I am pretty certain this will be a cool race, unless one of the entry horses make the lead and let Foiled Again by. Even if it does happen, Doug McNair is not going back to last, so that should ensure some fractions and some activity. It's a really cool race on a half mile track, and I'll be playing.

The pick 4 was picked by players, through a survey, and at 15% takeout, it's a pretty solid play.

Good luck and enjoy your Friday everyone!

Belmont MSW First Time Winner, No Lasix – Old Methods

Fri, 25 May 2012 12:48:52 +0000

That is (an old pic of) James Jerkens, son of the great Allen Jerkens, who currently is based in New York and recently sent Resonating to post without the crutch of Lasix. Now there are several horses running without Lasix on any given day, but few at the top levels such as Belmont, few who win first time out, and few who significantly alter their conditioning to improve their chances without the diuretic. So, I thought the circa 1990? pic of Mr. Jerkens was appropriate due to his old-school methods.

Just the Facts:

Resonating – 3yo filly
5/4/12 – Belmont Park – MSW $70k – 6F over a muddy track
Comes home a winner by 4.75 lengths, gearing down over the final 70 yards

Worktab

Track Date Course Distance Time Note Rank
Belmont Park  5/24/2012 Dirt training 7F 1:28.27 Breezing 1/1
Belmont Park  5/1/2012 Dirt training 4F 50.10 Breezing 1/3
Belmont Park  4/26/2012 Dirt training 6F 1:15.23 Breezing 1/1
Belmont Park  4/20/2012 Dirt 4F 48.46 Breezing 5/25
Belmont Park  4/13/2012 Dirt 5F 1:02.16 Breezing 5/6
Belmont Park  4/1/2012 Dirt training 5F 1:00.13 Breezing 1/21

1. Breezes the full race distance, 6F, prior to his debut

2. Blows out the filly with a 4F effort 3 days prior to post

3. Comes out so soundly that the first post-race work is 7F – probably going to stretch her out next time

Add this one to your watch list folks, it feels like 1950 again!

Japanese Derby - Preview

Fri, 25 May 2012 12:10:10 +0000

While the Japanese Derby doesn’t have the same fan fair as the Kentucky Derby, it is still a very important part of the Japanese racing world. Many of the top stallions in Japan have won this race in the past; Deep Impact in 2005, King Kamehameha in 2004, Neo Universe in 2003, Tanino Gimlet in 2002, Jungle Pocket in 2001, Special Week in 1998. It is a stallion making race. We will soon see if the race’s legacy as a stallion maker will continue as 2006 Derby winner, Meisho Samson’s first crop turn two this year and 2008 Derby winner, Deep Sky’s first crop are currently yearlings.

Just like with the fillies last week, this will be the first time going 2400m for most of these colts. Though there always tends to be a few who have tried their hand at the distance at least once. Usually the colts who run 1-2 in the Aoba Sho (G2, 2400m) get to start in the Derby, though that prep race has never produced a winner, it has produced some notable 2nd place finishers: Symboli Kris S, Zenno Rob Roy (both went on to win multiple G1s), and last year’s Win Variation who was 2nd in both the Derby and the Kikuka Sho. So Fenomeno will have to really break the mold to win this year.

I enjoy looking at trends in numbers in the post positions and favorites... for whatever reason. For the past four years post positions 1has been in the money. #1 actually won 3 years in a row (2008 - 2010) and was 2nd last year. #3, #5, and #7 are also frequently in the top three. However a double digit post has not won since 2004. 1-5 posts have won 8 out of the past 10 years. 18 has only managed to chart a third, and that was in 2003. As usual the 18 hole ruins dreams.

If you look at the popular horses that have won over the past 10 years the favorite has won 7 times. The only real upset was Eishin Flash in 2010, who was 7th favorite. The other two were both 2nd and 3rd favorite. So favorites tend to perform well. BUT there is almost always ONE dark horse in the top three, sometimes even two. So don’t rule anyone out too quickly. 7th favorites tend to get lucky a lot... being in the money 5 out of the past 10 years.

As you can read in the JRA’s Data Analysis, every single winner from the past 10 years has won a graded stakes within their 3 most recent starts. They should help you narrow down possible winners. Though remember the Aoba Sho has proven to be a dud. As has the Principal Stakes, which is unfortunate because of Spielberg’s relations (half brother to Flower Alley) to this year American Triple Crown hopeful, I’ll Have Another. There are 10 horses who fit the above criteria including the possibly jinxed Fenomeno. Alfredo, Brightline, Cosmo Ozora, Gold Ship, Grandezza, Historical, Just a Way, Tosen Homareboshi, and World Ace.

It will be very interesting to see what happens with Gold Ship. Since his pedigree is the same as Orfevre, it would be fascinating if he wins. I like a lot of these horses, so personally I will just be enjoying the show and doing my “stay away rain” dance. Yes... that is something that needs to be done! It has poured rain on Derby day, two out of the past three years! Last year was a mess.

The biggest question on everyone’s minds though is can sire Deep Impact win a Derby this year? Up until last week he hadn’t had a G1 win beyond a mile. The Deep Impact colts in this race are very impressive. Closing rocket World Ace, consistent Deep Brillante, I’ll Have Another’s Uncle Spielberg, record setting Tosen Homareboshi, impressive Historical, and then there are the fairly unproven but still talented, Etendard and Veiled Impact. Deep Impact’s second crop of colts look amazing compared the group he had this time last year.

English information from the JRA
Race Details: HERE
Free PPs (Includes nominated horses not in race): HERE
Data Analysis: HERE
International Ratings of Nominated horses: HERE
Preview of Contenders: HERE
Barrier Draw: HERE
Interviews with connections: HERE
Racing Program for May 27th (Available after 2pm JST on May 26th): HERE

For those of you interested in watching the Japanese Derby, it will be shown on TVG, starting at 12:30am ET (Sunday morning) / 9:30pm PT (Saturday).

79th Tokyo Yushun [Japanese Derby] (G1)
May 27th, 2012, Tokyo Racecourse
2400m, Turf, Left Handed
3 Year Old, 57kg

Post# - Horse - Sire x Dam, BM Sire
Owner - Trainer - Breeder - Jockey
1 - Spielberg - Deep Impact x Princess Olivia, Lycius
Hideyoshi Yamamoto x Kazuo Fujiwara, Shadai Farm - Norihiro Yokoyama
Lucky number 1! Good news for US race fans watching the Japanese Derby! He is the 1/2 brother to I’ll Have Another’s sire Flower Alley and this post position has produced three derby winners in the past 5 years. Now no Principal Stakes winner has ever won the Japanese Derby, even though it is a Derby trial. This is not in our boys favor but there has to be a first time for everything right? Out of his past performances, he is a serious closer, but has never raced 2400m before. If he pulls it off that could bode well for his Nephew back in the US, since the Belmont is 2400m too! While #2 Historical beat him in the Mainichi Hai (G3, 1800m) he ran amazingly well in that too. VIDEO of his last race, the Principal Stakes (OP, 2000m), he was 1st.

2 - Historical - Deep Impact x Brilliant Very, Northern Taste
Hideko Kondo - Hidetaka Otonashi - Northern Farm - Katsumi Ando
His win in the Mainichi Hai was very impressive. Mainly because even on a short-ish stretch he was able to get around a large group of horses after saving ground on the inside and close like a flash of lightening. Spielberg was nipping at his heals most of the way but he was able to fly past most of those horses, several of whom are running on Sunday. The inside has been really successful in the past few Derbies, so that should play into this handsome colt’s favors as well. VIDEO of his last race, the Mainichi Hai (G3, 1800m), he was 1st.

3 - Zelos - King Kamehameha x Samson Fairy, Sunday Silence
Mitsuo Sugisawa - Masazo Ryoke - Saka Bokujo - Yuga Kawada
Mmmm no. After a disappointing start on dirt, he switched to turf and ran pretty well, breaking his maiden and winning an allowance and open level stakes. Since coming into the graded stakes arena he has been left in the dust though. VIDEO of his last race, the Satsuki Sho (G1, 2000m), he was 17th.

4 - Just A Way - Heart’s Cry x Sibyl, Wild Again
Akatsuki Yamatoya - Naosuke Sugai - Shadai Corporation Inc. - Shinichiro Akiyama
He’s never won a race beyond a mile and was 6th in the NHK Mile against a rather average bunch of 3 year old milers. I don’t really expect to see much of the Arlington Cup (G3, 1600m) winner. Universal Bank had the same flop last year. VIDEO of his last race, the NHK Mile Cup (G1, 1600m), he was 6th.

5 - Veiled Impact - Deep Impact x Violet Love, Dr. Devious
Shadai Race H. - Ryuji Okubo - Shadai Farm - Yusuke Fukuoka
I was more impressed with his performance in the Kyoto Shimbun Hai than I was with his performance in the Satsuki Sho. He was closing really well. He wont be one of the top favorites but he could surprise. VIDEO of his last race, the Kyoto Shimbun Hai (G2, 2200m), he was 2nd.

6 - Gold Ship - Stay Gold x Point Flag, Mejiro McQueen
Eiichi Kobayashi - Naosuke Sugai - Eiichi Kobayashi - Hiroyuki Uchida
I don’t want to take anything away from this magnificent animal, but his win in the Satsuki Sho was mostly Hiroyuki Uchida’s doing. Unlike the rest of the field who opted to go as wide as possible to avoid a destroyed Nakayama top of the stretch, Uchida steered the powerful closer more towards the inside and drew away to win with ease. Had he gone to the outside like the rest of the horses he had been rating with before the far turn he would have likely lost to World Ace. His pedigree can handle the distance, he has a good post position, and a smart jock who has won the Derby before. He is all As... he just needs the racing gods to smile on him on Sunday! VIDEO of his last race, the Satsuki Sho (G1, 2000m), he was 1st.

7 - Cosmo Ozora - Roses in May x Meine Sharona, Commander in Chief
Big Red Farm - Yoshihiro Takahashi - Big Red Farm - Daiichi Shibata
Tut Tut Ozora really hopes it looks like rain on Derby day. Based on his PPs he likes softer turf and Tokyo tends to be rather hard. With no rain currently (knock on wood) in the forecast, Ozora probably will not enjoy the Derby this weekend. He has run well at Tokyo before on firm turf but hit was a low level allowance. The next time he ran, the Kyodo News Service Hai (G3, 1800m) he was a distant 5th. But that day he was just off the pace most of the way, while in most of his races he seems to perform better sitting 5 or 6 back. It would be great to see Roses in May snag his first G1 as a sire, not to mention all of The Knack jokes I could make all year long! VIDEO of his last race, the Satsuki Sho (G1, 2000m), he was 4th.

8 - World Ace - Deep Impact x Mandela, Acatenango
Sunday Racing Co. Ltd. - Yasutoshi Ikee - Northern Racing - Yuichi Fukunaga
I was pretty sure he was going to win the Satsuki Sho last month. However the way everyone ran that day, it just wasn’t meant to be. Did someone put a hex on Yasutoshi Ikee at the beginning of the year? Cause between the Orfevre conundrum, Mount Shasta’s DQ and World Ace tripping in the Satsuki Sho... he is literally having the EXACT opposite luck of last season. In every race World Ace has been in, he has been phenominal. The way he closed in the Satsuki Sho, even after going wider than the majority of the horses, was amazing. If Gold Ship had gone wide, World Ace would have won. I think this guy will win Derby or the Kikuka Sho. Unless luck continues to ignore Team Ikee. The long Tokyo stretch should be a god sent for the colt. It took him til they were at the 100m mark before he really found his groove on Nakayama’s short stretch. He has never been worse than 2nd. VIDEO of his last race, the Satsuki Sho (G1, 2000m), he was 2nd.

9 - Etendard - Deep Impact x Miss Pemberley, Montjeu
Hiroo Race - Hideaki Fujiwara - Pangurosu Inc. TH Co. Ltd. et al. - Masami Matsuoka
This colt is likely a new name for most of you abroad. He has not been in either of the G1s for his age group prior to this. But he is one of the few that has shown he can handle distance. In his past three races he has run 2400m twice (coming in 3rd and 2nd) and winning a 2200m listed allowance back in March. Currently he is rather popular, but betting has not really started so I am not sure where he will end up price wise. There are stronger horses in the field than him, but his pedigree screams 2400m. VIDEO of his last race, the Aoba Sho (G2, 2400m), he was 2nd.

10 - Deep Brillante - Deep Impact x Love And Bubbles, Loup Sauvage
Sunday Racing Co. Ltd. - Yoshito Yahagi - Love And Bubbles Partnership - Yasunari Iwata
This colt seems destined for a year of finishing just behind everyone else in all the major races, but will likely surpass them all next year. He is usually passed by one horse or another in the final furlong but he always hits the board. Like most of his fellow Derby starters 2000 meters is the longest distance he has run. Since he keeps getting passed I have to wonder if perhaps the Yasuda Kinen wouldn’t have been a better slot for him, but who passes up a trip to the Derby? Pretty much no one. His ability to stay in the game should make him pretty useful in a trifecta. VIDEO of his last race, the Satsuki Sho (G1, 2000m), he was 3rd.

11 - Fenomeno - Stay Gold x De Laroche, Danehill
Sunday Racing Co. Ltd. - Hirofumi Toda - Oiwake Farm - Masayoshi Ebina
Unfortunately for Ebina and Fenomeno, Aoba Sho winners don’t win the Derby. But that won’t prevent him from becoming a monster later on in his career. Didn’t hurt Symboli Kris S and Zenno Rob Roy who went on to be horses of the year during their illustrious careers. Pedigree wise he looks pretty good, with Stay Gold and Danehill crossing paths. ALL three of his wins have been at Tokyo Racecourse; he lost the two races he had at Nakayama. No one seems to be paying attention to this one. His price might be pretty sweet. If anyone is going to break the Aoba Sho curse, this guy could do it. Ebina has proven to be a pretty reliable rider, though he has not won a G1 in a year and has never won the Derby. VIDEO of his last race, the Aoba Sho (G2, 2400m), he was 1st.

12 - Trip - Kurofune x Be Positive, Sunday Silence
Nobuyuki Oyagi - Hiroyoshi Matsuda - Northern Racing - Hironobu Tanabe
The Kurofune/Sunday Silence cross might have produced a winner with Whale Capture, but I don’t know if Trip is going to be as successful. He was a strong 2nd in the Yayoi Sho (G2, 2000m) prior to his poor performance in the Satsuki Sho. VIDEO of his last race, the Satsuki Sho (G1, 2000m), he was 12th.

13 - Clarente - Dance in the Dark x Erimo Pixy, Dancing Brave
Shinji Maeda - Kojiro Hashiguchi - North Hills Management - Futoshi Komaki
I was beginning to wonder if this colt peaked early when he won the G2 Daily Hai 2yo Stakes (1600m) last October, because up until his distant (but respectable) 3rd place finish in the NHK Mile, he had been striking out big time. A lot of other horses were right there too though, he just had a nose in front. He will be North Hill’s best shot at the Derby, but he is a long shot none the less. VIDEO of his last race, the NHK Mile Cup (G1, 1600m), he was 3rd.

14 - Tosen Homareboshi - Deep Impact x Every Whisper, Northern Taste
Takaya Shimakawa - Yasutoshi Ikee - Northern Form - Craig Williams
After the post position draw, Craig Williams is probably giving himself a pat on the back for having chosen to ride Homareboshi instead of Alfredo, who ended up in the 18 hole. Distance doesn’t seem like it will be too much of a factor for the half brother of Tosen Jordan. Like his brother, he is also a record holder. Jordan holds the record for 2000m and Homareboshi for 2200m. What a pair huh? He rated extremely well in the Kyoto Shimbun Hai, waiting till the top of the stretch to let loose. He was running fast obviously but my only wonder is if a deep closer like World Ace might not catch him on Tokyo’s long stretch. VIDEO of his last race, the Kyoto Shimbun Hai (G2, 2200m), he was 1st.

15 - Brightline - Fuji Kiseki x Cherie’s Smile, King of Kings
North Hills Co. Ltd. - Ippo Sameshima - North Hills Management - Tetsuzo Sato
His only two wins have come on Good or Yielding turf. So he will also be praying for rain. His only win this year was a 1400m G3. Not gonna happen. VIDEO of his last race, the NHK Mile Cup (G1, 1600m), he was 10th.

16 - Monstre - Admire Max x Isono Swallow, Dehere
Koji Maeda - Tomohito Ozeki - Murashita Nojo - Yoshitomi Shibata
Brightline has a better chance than this guy. VIDEO of his last race, the NHK Mile Cup (G1, 1600m), he was 16th.

17 - Grandezza - Agnes Tachyon x Marbye, Marju
Shadai Race H. Osamu Hirata - Shadai Farm - Kenichi Ikezoe
Poor fella. Way on the outside again!? He was in post 18 in the Satsuki Sho and that, plus the odd nature the horses went around the far turn, sending him and World Ace almost the outside rail, really made if impossible for him to win. But he ran valiantly none the less! He was still pretty far back, lover 4 lengths, but it was a strong effort from a horse that ran much farther than some of the others. All of his wins have come at 1800m. Normally he likes to stalk the pace a few horses back in 5th or 6th before making his move on the stretch, but being so far out that might be harder to achieve if he doesn’t break quickly. VIDEO of his last race, the Satsuki Sho (G1, 2000m), he was 5th.

18 - Alfredo - Symboli Kris S x Princess Camilla, Sunday Silence
A. Carrot Farm - Takahisa Tezuka - Northern Farm - Yutaka Take
On paper, this colt probably shouldn’t be in this race. He hasn’t ran well beyond a mile. BUT he has only ran once beyond a mile and it was yielding turf, his first time on an off track. If the weather holds he should get s firm surface on Sunday. He finished well in the NHK Mile so his connections are hoping he will prove to be more like his sire, Symboli Kris S, who was a two time winner of the Arima Kinen (G1, 2500m). It can be really hard to judge with the 3 year olds at this stage. Rose Kingdom looked the part of a miler in 2010, he was champion 2 year old going into the Derby just like Alfredo is this year, but finished a VERY strong 2nd in the Derby. Alfredo will have a new rider for the Derby, Yutaka Take, as regular rider, Craig Williams has opted to ride Tosen Homareboshi. That might hurt him, only because Williams has been able to get the colt 1st and 2nd in his two G1 attempts. Though NOTHING will hurt him more than this Post 18 nonsense. Wow... What a horrible thing to happen for the 2yo champ. VIDEO of his last race, the NHK Mile Cup (G1, 1600m), he was 2nd.

Union Rags ill-suited for Belmont Stakes

Fri, 25 May 2012 10:26:52 +0000

Union Rags

Union Rags (Dixie Union x Tempo by Gone West), seventh in the Kentucky Derby, will try to stop I’ll Have Another in the Belmont Stakes on June 9. The Michael Matz pupil was second betting choice in the Derby and will have plenty of support racing at Big Sandy. So much support, that he is likely to be a significant underlay when comparing his win odds to his true chance of winning the race. I did not like his chances in the Derby and I continue to hold a bearish stance.

The biggest factor working against Union Rags in the Belmont Stakes is his pedigree. Sire Dixie Union saw his best win come in the nine furlong Haskell Invitational. He was ineffective going any further than that as proved by a fourth place effort in the ten furlong Travers Stakes. His progeny are quite similar to him in that regard as he has yet to produce a top stakes winner going the classic distance. Broodmare sire Gone West was one of the most prolific in modern times, but his best dirt progeny were sprinter and miler types.

Union Rags is unlikely to stay the 12 furlongs distance of the Test of Champions. We must consider his lackluster efforts in the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby and the fact that he was all over the track in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Longer distances have been the cause of a lot of his troubles.

The second big thing working against the over hyped Union Rags is the fact that he just isn’t that fast. He was a precocious juvenile, but hasn’t improved as a sophomore. His best speed figure to this date is 95, which if reproduced, would not get him in the Belmont Stakes exacta, let alone the winner’s circle.

It’s not all bad though. A rider switch to John Velazquez, 2007 Belmont Stakes winning jockey aboard Rags To Riches, could shake him up. Also, his best career win came at Belmont Park where he crushed the competition in the Champagne Stakes.

If Union Rags was a long shot then I might be willing to forgive some of his faults, but as the projected second choice it is hard for me to get in his corner. Betting horses is all about getting bang for your buck and Union Rags gives little to no value in the Belmont Stakes.

2012 Japanese Derby

noreply@blogger.com (starsfaraway) — Fri, 25 May 2012 08:28:00 +0000

A total of 18 colts will go for the Tokyo Yushun(known as the Japanese Derby).

Gold Ship comes straight from an outstanding victory in the Satsuki Sho(Japanese 2000 Guineas) and is looking for the second classic glory. He has raced at Tokyo earlier this season when he won the Kyodo News Service Hai.

World Ace, who finished a 2 1/2-length second in the Satsuki Sho, has classic material with his explosive late surge which could prevail at the long Tokyo stretch.

Deep Brillante, third in the Satsuki Sho and Fenomeno, winner of the Aoba Sho, are in the hunt of an upset run.

The 79th Tokyo Yushun(Japanese Derby), Grade One
Sunday, May 27, 2012
Tokyo Race-11
3yo c&f 2,400-meter turf left-handed
weight: 57 kgs for colt, filly allowed 2 kgs
post time: 3:40 p.m. JST

H#(pp)/HorseName(Sire)/Rider
1/Spielberg(Deep Impact)/Norihiro Yokoyama
2/Historical(Deep Impact)/Katsumi Ando
3/Zelos(King Kamehameha)/Yuga Kawada
4/Just a Way(Heart's Cry)/Shinichiro Akiyama
5/Veiled Impact(Deep Impact)/Yusuke Fujioka
6/Gold Ship(Stay Gold)/Hiroyuki Uchida
7/Cosmo Ozora(Roses in May)/Daichi Shibata
8/World Ace(Deep Impact)/Yuichi Fukunaga
9/Etendard(Deep Impact)/Masami Matsuoka
10/Deep Brillante(Deep Impact)/Yasunari Iwata
11/Fenomeno(Stay Gold)/Masayoshi Ebina
12/Trip(Kurofune)/Hironobu Tanabe
13/Clarente(Dance in the Dark)/Futoshi Komaki
14/Tosen Homareboshi(Deep Impact)/Craig Williams
15/Brightline(Fuji Kiseki)/Tetsuzo Sato
16/Monstre(Admire Max)/Yoshitomi Shibata
17/Grandezza(Agnes Tachyon)/Kenichi Ikezoe
18/Alfredo(Symboli Kris S)/Yutaka Take

ROMANS OFF TO THE RACES FRIDAY EVENING

noreply@blogger.com (GP) — Fri, 25 May 2012 01:19:00 +0000

Is There A Better Place to Get a Positive Than California?

noreply@blogger.com (Pull the Pocket) — Thu, 24 May 2012 23:46:00 +0000

The CHRB handed Doug O'Neill a 45 day suspension for TCo2 today. According to the New York Times, it's his 4th TCo2 violation.

That was pretty astounding, for us as racers up here.

When you come from a place like Ontario, a class III (which TCo2 is), by itself as a first offence (mistakes can and do happen) is a minimum 60 days. For a fourth offence? Well, that's a minimum two years.

Although we don't know the full details of this case, it's not a whole lot different in New York it seems, as a two time offender recently got five years.

When you add O'Neill's other offences to the mix, I surmise the ORC up here would chuck him for at least three years.

Horseplayers have long complained about the kids glove treatment in the golden state. When we look at it through the lens of 45 days for a fourth high TCo2, I think they might have a point.

Note: An Australian study shows the naturally occurring levels for TCo2 for those interested.

Busted

noreply@blogger.com (Pull the Pocket) — Thu, 24 May 2012 22:44:00 +0000

Super-trainer Lou Pena, through an investigation conducted by the NYSRWB and the New Jersey commission, was nabbed with 1700 violations, and his career looks over. Interestingly, and I'm sure we'll hear more on this, the drugs were not found in positive tests, but through vet records (the same thing they used in the Fusco case).

Pena, who was a 12% trainer with a 0% win percentage off the claim, came east and suddenly his numbers exploded, shocking virtually everyone. He became a target for many in the sport, wondering what in heavens name was occurring for this huge turnaround.

As with most of these cases, the bloodhounds came out, trying to answer exactly that question.

As with most of these cases as well, there is no smoking gun. There's no deep throat, or a positive test. Just like when the ATF broke down Ledford's door, this door was broken down with a paper trail, looking at several substances and withdrawal times.

What happens next is anyone's guess. However, the NYSRWB is not dumb, and I think they know that in the absence of a smoking gun (smoking guns are virtually impossible to find in racing, regardless), the 1,700 number that they released - coupled with his remarkable numbers - will hit everyone with one big hammer. I bet dollars to donuts it'll work as planned.

MTHA Announces Significant Personnel, Other Changes

Thu, 24 May 2012 15:52:52 +0000

It took days of meetings and, last night, a two hour and 20 minute executive session that left nearly two dozen of the organization’s members milling around outside the Ruffian Room at Laurel Park. But when all was said and done, the board of directors of the Maryland Thoroughbred Horsemen’s Association (MTHA) announced a series …

Fig Overload

noreply@blogger.com (Pull the Pocket) — Thu, 24 May 2012 15:13:00 +0000

There is plenty of chatter on the Interwebs about speed figures. For example, before the Preakness, we were told this may be a sub-par group of horses, but after (and after the nice Preakness fig), well, maybe not. Almost overnight this group of horses might be alright, historically.

I don't blame anyone for being confused.

I use speed figures all the time because, after all, the fastest horses win the races. With track's in 2012 being very, very confusing, a good fig, like say, Pacefigures.com puts out, is a big part of handicapping. It's also good to look at them and form an opinion on a horse historically, after the tack has long been hung up. They're predictive and they're pretty cool.

However, where I think they internally fail is in judging horseflesh before all is said and done.

I think back to Rachel Alexandra's first tilt as a four year old. For those who just watched the race, and compared her to the previous year, it was a pretty bad effort. She had no separation at all at the 5/8's against a horse she is probably 10 lengths better than, and she got beat to boot. She went slower than she usually does, but the number came back okay, so people figured as a prep that was fine. It was like we had to wait for a godlike presence to come from the sky to tell us what we were watching was bad or good.

This further was exemplified with the granddaddy (or grandma, I guess) of all weird fig horses - Zenyatta. We were told constantly she was "slow". When she finally did run a nice 112 in the Classic, she was slow, but decent on her preferred surface. It didn't matter she won at Oaklawn by five while stopping for a snow cone and posing for a few pictures at the top of the stretch - she ran a slow fig, so it wasn't really very impressive. Finally, when she closed from the Duquion State Fair and almost nipped Blame in the "dirt" classic, earning a 111, she was crowned a fast racemare. 20 races, 19 wins, 13 Grade I's, a Classic win against colts, most against pace setups over 3+ seasons; and we have to wait for her to "earn" a 111 before we can call her a 'great' racemare?

This year's crop, I think so far, is quite good. I thought that before the Preakness, and I think it today. IHA and Bode are clearly some stock. Creative Cause has not progressed a ton, but he's no slouch. Dullahan looks like a horse that can race and win on three different surfaces in nice times. Union Rags, I still believe, has some major go. There are probably a few others that we have not remotely seen at their best that have some chops, and will possibly prove themselves in the months to come.

It's a long year, and like the Preakness shows, on any given day there are capable horses who can step up and win with a nice number. The thing is, they were capable of it when they were running slower numbers, in March or April or in the Derby. There is more to horses, especially developing two or three year olds, or deep closers, than simply a number. Sometimes, in this day and age, I think we forget that.

Secretariat’s Birthplace sold

Thu, 24 May 2012 11:27:13 +0000

The birthplace of the greatest horse that ever lived, Secretariat, has been sold for $5.35 million. Meadow Farm saw the rise of the most dominant Triple Crown winning racehorse to ever set foot on a track.

A recent Disney film about his storied career was a big success, just like the colt who was Horse of the Year at 2 and 3. His Kentucky Derby win is to this day the fastest running in the history of the race as are his times in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.

Perhaps the most impressive win in his career came in the Belmont Stakes, a race where he shattered the world record while running each quarter faster than the last. The track announcer noted that he was “moving like a tremendous machine“. It was this win that hooked many fans on horse and to this day brings folks to the track. Another horse like Secretariat will never live.

Belmont betting 2012 will bear witness to I’ll Have Another who is the first horse to try for the Triple Crown since Big Brown in 2008. Belmont odds are likely to see him as a 4-5 favorite. Hopefully the spirit of Secretariat will ride with him on this date with destiny.

Triple Crown Near Misses: Spectacular Bid

Thu, 24 May 2012 10:21:01 +0000

Spectacular Bid

Spectacular Bid (Bold Bidder x Spectacular by Promised Land) is without a doubt one of the greatest equines to ever set foot on a racetrack. He won 26 of 30 career starts and never lost from seven to ten furlongs. His career ended with earnings of $2,781,608 which was a record at that time. A champion at 2, 3 and 4, ‘Bid was in a class of his own.

Despite his greatness, he could not win the Triple Crown. Spectacular Bid is the first of 11 horses since Affirmed won the Triple Crown to win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes before failing in the Belmont Stakes. There are two main reasons for his dull third place finish at Belmont Park.

First, jockey Ron Franklin delivered a terrible ride. The troubled young jockey would soon see his career flounder because of a cocaine addiction. While Spectacular Bid rallied from the back in his Derby and Preakness wins, Franklin placed him right in the pace battle in the Belmont Stakes. He struck the lead too soon and could not maintain his run while fading to third. Coastal, a horse Spectacular Bid would go on to crush later that year, won the race. It was not the first bad ride from Franklin and trainer Bud Delp screamed at the teary eyed jockey after the Florida Derby, a race in which Delp said he almost got him killed, despite a four length win.

The second reason behind ‘Bid’s failed attempt is a freak accident in which he stepped on a safety pin in his stall the morning of the race. Horses can be quite fragile and if you consider all of the weight pounding on that single hoof, it makes sense that this would hinder him significantly. Despite this handicap, I believe he would have still won the race with a better calculated ride from Franklin.

Triple Crown winner or not, Spectacular Bid is one of the greatest to ever look through a bridle. In fact, Delp asserted this until the day he died.

The two factors that cost him the most are relevant to I’ll Have Another in 2012. While a freak accident cannot be predicted, it is up to his connections to keep him healthy and happy. I’m extremely confident Doug O’Neill can and will do this. Mario Gutierrez is just as inexperienced as Franklin was, if not more so. However, he has delivered two cold-blooded rides to win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. It will be up to him to do it one more time if the son of Flower Alley is to become the 12th winner of the Triple Crown.

Belmont Stakes betting will see I’ll Have Another as a heavy favorite.Belmont Stakes odds for 2012 could provide great wagering opportunities.

Triple Crown Winners: Does I’ll Have Another fit?

Thu, 24 May 2012 09:39:39 +0000

Sir Barton, Gallant Fox, Omaha, War Admiral, Whirlaway, Count Fleet, Assault, Citation, Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, and … I’ll Have Another? Can a horse that has never been sent off as the favorite by the betting public be ready to join American racing’s most illustrious honor roll? Let’s take a look at some comparisons between I’ll Have Another and the holders of racing’s Holy Grail…

OK, so we know he’s never been favored, has this ever happened before to a Triple Crown winner?

No. Of the eleven Triple Crown winners, seven were favored in the Kentucky Derby, and all of them were favored in the Preakness.

On the bright side, I’ll Have Another enters the 2012 Belmont Stakes undefeated (4/4) in 2012. How many of the magnificent eleven can say that?

Six out of the eleven can. While Omaha, Whirlaway, Assault, Citation, and Secretariat all suffered defeats in their season of magic before the Belmont, Sir Barton, (3/3) Gallant Fox, (3/3) War Admiral, (4/4) Count Fleet, (4/4) Seattle S

Weekend Preview

Thu, 24 May 2012 08:33:18 +0000

After the Korean Derby last weekend, there’s a slightly lower-key three days of racing ahead. Nevertheless, there’s plenty to keep us occupied on what should be another fine weekend of weather.

Blur: Jumong is among those in action at Seoul this weekend

Here’s what’s happening when and where:

Friday May 25

Busan Race Park: 10 races from 12:00 to 18:00
Jeju Race Park: 9 races from 13:30 to 17:30

Saturday May 26

Seoul Race Park: 12 races from 11:00 to 17:40
Jeju Race Park: 9 races from 12:20 to 17:20

Sunday May 27

Seoul Race Park: 10 races from 11:00 to 17:40
Busan Race Park: 6 races from 12:15 to 16:40

A turning point?

noreply@blogger.com (Joseph Burns) — Thu, 24 May 2012 02:18:00 +0000

Racing stands at the brink of greatness again with an 12th bid for the Triple Crown, the first one in 34 years if I'll Have Another is successful. At this point the failed bids since the last sweep at the throne now exceed the number of champions who climbed the peak. Averaged out, there has been one try every three years for this title for a horse no to do this at this point is abnormal. As a weathered racing fan once said, “Anything is possible and probable.” Could this year’s challenger do it? He stands just as good a chance as his last ten peers who attempted the feat. Racing needs more than one champion to spur a revival in the sport though.

Competition lends to the sport; the past two races in the series were close finishes between two top tier runners for their generation that sparked debate and strong opinions among the fans. More of the same throughout the rest of the year in the other important races would be unreal. The elite of horse racing needs to meet up more that two or three times in the year. Top horses vying for the big prizes sparks interest and increased handle on the big days. We had a taste of this in 2007 when Street Sense, Curlin, Hard Spun, and Rags to Riches met up in the spring and later on the first two mentioned had a rematch in the Classic with Horse of the Year on the line. Unfortunately, Hard Spun and Street Sense were whisked away to stud leaving Curlin all alone to do the entire heavy lifting the following year. More competition at the top is better for the product, people like seeing the best of any sport going head to head frequently. Thus more incentive should be put up to see elite meet up more often.

There are other divisions than the three-year-old colts; it is hard to believe that from the coverage racing receives beyond the Belmont Stakes. The second half of the racing season has taken up bigger importance now that the top horses are on a lighter schedule. Every race in each division takes on a playoff feel as the season progresses. Now that NBC Sports has picked coverage of the important races in the summer and fall one would hope that this takes place. The more coverage that horse racing receives, the better it is for all involved. More casual fans could show up and increased wagering volume is a positive byproduct that could be seen from this.

All the tools are there for thoroughbred racing to make a decent comeback. Last time this sport was in a position to move forward was 2008, NBC had 2/3 of the Triple Crown and ESPN had rights to most of the major races from June on. ESPN did little with their resources, minimized their coverage, and racing remained stagnant from the point that Big Brown pulled up on the far turn at Belmont. NBC Sports and horse racing are sitting on a gold mine win, lose, or draw on the afternoon of June 9th. It is all about the utilization of the tools at their disposal.