TBA Feed #1

Busy on the Biz this week!

Fri, 24 May 2013 21:53:14 +0000

There’s all kinds of good stuff over on The Racing Biz this week, and if you haven’t been checking it out… hop on that!

For example, did you know that…

The Maryland Racing Commission voted, at a contentious meeting, to approve a program designed to boost the Maryland breeding industry? You did if you read it here.
Midlantic-breds fared well at the recently completed Fasig-Tipton sale? In fact, their average price rose by more than one-third from 2012 — and that’s saying nothing of a Midlantic-sired colt who fetched over $300,000– check it here.
Dave Rodman calls the races in Maryland and Virginia, which will be pretty tricky when they both run on Belmont day? Our NIck Hahn spoke with him.
We inaugurated new featured race handicapping this week, and ‘capper Jo Talbot helped you toss some short, but vulnerable, chalk – here?
Our Preakness coverage wrapped up this week with images and videos galore? Check out Preakness Day in Pictures, Owner’s-Eye View of Baltimore’s Best Weekend, and Blue the Lucky Preakness Pony to get a flavor!

And, while you’re there, don’t forget to follow The Biz on Twitter and like us on Facebook!

2013 Belmont Stakes Picks

Fri, 24 May 2013 19:32:15 +0000

2013 Belmont Stakes Picks

I love New York racing and consider it one of my favorite circuits. It is also the location of thousands of dollars worth of winning tickets just last year alone.

My second biggest hit of 2012 came in the Vanderbilt Handicap where I nailed winner Poseidon’s Warrior as my top selection.

He paid $74.50 to win.

I had the following to say about the long shot: “Poseidon’s Warrior is too big of a price to pass up here. He will be in a good spot under jockey Irad Ortiz and is sitting on the best race of his life.”

Nobody else saw it coming. Poseidon’s Warrior is just one example of my excellent handicapping work. I’m ready to put my skills and knowledge to work for you with 2013 Belmont Stakes Picks.

You wouldn’t go to court without a lawyer or try to fix your car without a mechanic, would you?

Don’t play the Belmont Stakes without expert help and inside information. This is the edge you need to take down the big payouts coming in the 2013 Belmont Stakes!

Belmont Stakes Only ($25)

Top pick to win the Belmont Stakes.
Analysis of each contender, including information from the backside.
Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta plays.
Exclusive video preview of the race.

Belmont Full Card ($50)

Personalized betting advice and wagering strategies.
Insider only videos detailing our plan of attack for the races.
EXCLUSIVE inside information available only to those “in the know” at Belmont.
WIN selection for every race on the Belmont Stakes card.
Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta plays.
Daily Double, Pick 3, Pick 4 and Pick 6 plays.

Belmont Week ($99)

Personalized betting advice and wagering strategies.
Insider only videos detailing our plan of attack for the races.
EXCLUSIVE inside information available only to those “in the know” at Belmont.
WIN selection for every race at BELMONT PARK during Belmont Stakes week.
Assorted Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta plays.
Assorted Daily Double and Pick 3 plays.
EVERY Pick 4 & Pick 6 during Belmont Stakes week.

Belmont Week+Saratoga Meet ($150) BEST VALUE!!

Includes everything in the Belmont Week package.
After the Belmont Stakes, my focus will shift to Saratoga. Long time visitors know I do some of my best work there!
The Saratoga meet spans July 19 to September 2.
The Full Saratoga Meet package will cost $99, which means you can grab serious value by getting in now.

The entire purchase process is automated and streamlined so that your information will be ready the instant you purchase it. On top of that, I am available nearly 24/7 to guide and help all subscribers via email or phone!

Where Are the Professionals?

noreply@blogger.com (Pull the Pocket) — Fri, 24 May 2013 13:16:00 +0000

Yesterday on social media there was quite the brouhaha regarding yesterdays CHRB meeting. Apparently the CHRB Chair led what several called an unprofessional meeting. I can't really comment on it, because I have not listened to the meeting. Whether what was reported was opinion or fact, truth or fiction, doesn't really matter in the following post, though.

I was speaking with someone from California a few weeks ago about the situation there, and let's face it, it's a mess. A major track closing with seemingly no back up plan. Massive handle losses since 2000. Short fields, track changes; we can go on. This person spoke about the people who are running the sport in the Golden State and said they were good people. I have no reason not to believe this. If you love this sport you love this sport. You don't try and hurt it and I think no one out there is trying to do that.

What I said to this person was 'it's all across racing. We simply do not have CEO smart, experienced people running the good ship racing'.

Bob Evans is CEO smart, and by all accounts does a great job. But he works for CDI's shareholders and employees, not racing and they can probably be considered a gaming or casino company anyway. There are several (many?) others like him in our sport, like Nick Eaves at Woodbine.

But when it comes to the running of the sport, with vision, passion, hard work and smarts, we have a void. A big void. We have board appointments who knows someone who knows someone. We have horsemen group heads who I am sure do a good job, but are generally much better at keeping a horse sound, not making high level decisions to keep a billion dollar plus business sound.

In this day and age open a newspaper and you'll see CEO's being bashed left and right. Some of them deserve it, but most don't. A 'CEO type' does not get to be a CEO type by being what you read. It takes a lot of hard work, some serious book learning, 18 hour workdays that last many years, and some major time spent in the trenches. People like Meg Whitman of HP, which is in the midst of a nice business turnaround, are not your average everyday person. That's some talent.

This talent is witnessed in hundreds of good organizations with budgets ranging from tens to hundreds of millions to billions of dollars, from hundreds of employees to many thousands like at HP. In racing, (for example, in California) the racing business, in terms of revenues, can dwarf many of the companies you read about in the Wall Street Journal. They support more jobs than a Fortune 500 company does.

But who is making the decisions for this multi-billion dollar business? Political appointees in makeshift meetings.

I'm not bashing the people who are lending their time, who care about the sport of racing. I am not going to bash the CHRB members. It's just that they don't have the tools to succeed in this huge task. Not many do.

It's not their fault. It's our sports' fault for letting it happen by not ensuring a billion dollar business employs the people experienced enough to run one.

Kauai Katie should be tested in the Acorn

Fri, 24 May 2013 08:54:39 +0000

When thinking about the most impressive horses so far of 2013, the name Kauai Katie might not be one of the first to come to mind. Perhaps it should. Not exactly running in one of the glamour divisions of thoroughbred racing, Kauai Katie has seamlessly carried on the recent superior work done by Groupie Doll domestically, and Black Caviar internationally, to give us another example of excellence in the field of female sprinting. 3-for-3 this year, the daughter of Malibu Moon has been nothing short of dominant in her sophomore season. On Monday, the Stonestreet color bearer will try to continue that kind of form in Belmont Park’s Grade 1 Acorn Stakes.

Kauai Katie’s only lifetime loss came in her sole attempt at two-turns when she ventured west for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies last fall. Her fourth place finish that day may have been a bit of a disappointment, but considering the top three were Beholder, Executiveprivilege, and Dreaming of Julia, the performance, in only her fourth lifetime start, was nothing of which to be ashamed. Eschewing the allure of the K

Weekend Preview

Thu, 23 May 2013 14:31:08 +0000

Just a week after Speedy First won the 2013 Korean Derby, last year’s winner Jigeum I Sungan, headlines the action at Seoul Race Park, while on Jeju Island, the ponies have their own Derby.

Jigeum I Sungan and Moon Se Young go again on Sunday

Jigeum I Sungan (Ingrandire) added another Stakes crown, the Owners’ Association Trophy, to his big-race haul last time out and, despite being top-weight by some considerable margin, will be heavy favourite to win in slightly more modest company in Sunday’s feature handicap.

Down at Busan, another former Derby winner, Ebony Storm (Buster’s Daydream), the evergreen winner of the 2008 edition is also in action. He’ll be nowhere near favourite but the 8-year old is not without a hope in the 7-furlong main-event. Last year’s KRA Cup mile winner Gyeongbudaero (Menifee) heads the field.

Derby winning jockey Joe Fujii returns to his home-track of Busan and has 10 rides across the weekend. The other foreign riders at the track aren’t getting quite the same support, however, with Ureshi Katsunori and Darryll Holland having just 3 and 2 mounts respectively.

Up at Seoul, however, it is a very busy weekend for Ikuyasu Kurakane, who rides 17 while even the ever-relaxed Yukio Abe will get on 9.

Meanwhile, down on Jeju Island, it is Derby Day! The KRA Jeju-Bred Derby is a new event on the calendar (or rather, an old Stakes race re-packaged as a Derby for 3-year olds) and brings together 10 of the most promising ponies running at the track. I’ll not pretend to know anything about the form but I do know that a month ago, practically the same field ran over the same 5-furlong distance in a race called the “Seongsan Ilchul” (hereafter called the “Jeju Guineas”) and it was won by a gelding called Sanjeongmuhan by a neck.

Sanjeongmuhan comes into the Derby with 6 wins from 9 starts. The race is number 5 on a 9-race card on Saturday at Jeju and will be simulcasted live to Seoul Race Park.

Here’s what’s happening when and where:

Friday May 24

Busan Race Park: 10 races from 12:00 to 18:00
Jeju Race Park: 9 races from 13:30 to 17:30

Saturday May 25

Seoul Race Park: 11 races from 11:00 to 17:40
Jeju Race Park: 9 races from 12:30 to 17:40 including the KRA Jeju Derby at 15:15

Sunday May 26

Seoul Race Park: 11 races from 11:00 to 18:00
Busan Race Park: 6 races from 12:50 to 17:00

Here’s what’s happening when and where.

Beyer Figs, Hidden Positives & Pop Bottles

noreply@blogger.com (Pull the Pocket) — Thu, 23 May 2013 14:05:00 +0000

There was (is) some twitter chatter this morning about Beyer figures. As we all know, their creator, Andy Beyer used them in the 1970's to try and standardize racetimes in a number, to make it easier for him to see who was fastest on a given day, at a given track. These numbers, like most, have a lower win percentage than favorites, but had a very strong ROI.

Over the years, as more and more people used them, or created their own, their handicapping predictability does not change, but their value gets eroded. 35 or so years later, pure speed figures are what they are.

In handicapping, Beyer figures when used by Andy and a few other sharpies was the holy grail. They're still one of the most sharp, interesting and formidable items to happen in handicapping and will forever be.

That got me thinking to back when I was a kid. In harness racing we could not use Beyers or track variants because there really wasn't many. But we could make our own 'figures' in some instances.

_________________________________________________________________________________

I had just finished writing an exam; in I think Modern Symbolic Logic, at the downtown campus at the University of Toronto. I was 18. I had $1.50 in my pocket – streetcar fare. I sped to the streetcar stop and finally made it home.

I had to find some way to raise some capital and get to the track. I found a good bet in the Greenwood third race and since I was broke, I needed to make some sort of score.

My roommates were not home so they were no help. I'd scrounged up some change I found on the floor of my room. Then I found some soda bottles, then the coup de grace, a few empty cases of beer. The beer store was down the road about a half a block, and I was walking distance to Greenwood. After cashing those in I had enough to pay admission, split a program with a buddy (who was also broke and a student), and go to town with $11 worth of bets on my horse.

The horse was a mare. I think she was by Armbro Splurge, and she had recently qualified in fast time at a new track that opened up in Sarnia, Ontario. But there was something funny about this brand new track - it was dreadfully slow. I swore that horses there were turning for home in a pile of molasses carting a 300 pound driver, pulling several bowling balls made of iron. I noticed that once before at a B track with a Sarnia shipper who won at a bomb price, and I was hoping to capitalize on that knowledge.

Betting is pretty simple. If you know something other people don't you have a "hidden positive", and hidden positives can make you big money. I felt this one could be one of those. At least I was hoping so.

Race 3 was a tri race (not all races were tri's in the late 1980's), so of course I had to try and bet one of those. Plus, some win money was a good thought. My plan was set.

The odds board opened and this little filly shipper from near Detroit was 30-1. I played a $1 triactor key for $6 and bet $2 to win and $3 to place. My bankroll was summarily shot.

The race went off and she got off fifth or sixth, pulled and tipped off cover at the head of the lane. I was pretty confident because she looked super off cover and I began looking for my horses to fill triactor slots, which any gambler will tell you is a big mistake. Well not this time as the gods were with me. Maybe they felt sorry for me since I was so broke.

She stormed home and crossed the wire in first, by two lengths, and the tri was filled. I had won.

The prices flashed up: $830 or $840 for the triple and $44 for the win price.

It was exhilaration.

This was the way it was back then with betting. The Internet today would never have let that happen. Word would have gotten out about this nice filly. Word would have spread about the depth of the Sarnia track. I bet that mare today would have paid less than $10.

This is a very difficult game. Sometimes you can find a hidden positive or obscure angle, but it doesn't happen very often. In the days of Pittsburgh Phil (and he alludes to this in his classic book) you could be a railbird, pick your spots, watch races and chart them (there were not even past performances back then), and make a pile of money. Sometimes I long for those days, being the fan that I am.

Regardless, for one day – one brief moment- I felt like I was there, back in 1900, making a score with Phil.

Lameness Evaluation: American Sensor System Tests Successfully in British Research

noreply@blogger.com (Fran Jurga) — Thu, 23 May 2013 12:33:00 +0000

Belmont Stakes Rules and Regulations Cast a Pall

noreply@blogger.com (Alan Mann) — Thu, 23 May 2013 12:24:00 +0000

I'm sure that the NYRA press office, and new Director of Communications Eric Wing, would rather be spending their time differently than issuing the two press releases they have in the last couple of days. On Tuesday, it was the announcement of the enhanced security protocols for the Belmont Stakes horses (in conjunction with the New York State Gaming Commission, on which there may actually be members other than Robert Williams sometime in the near future).

And on Wednesday, it was the "modified security policies" for fans attending the Belmont Stakes. Nothing moderate about these modifications; they are shockingly draconian and go well beyond anything I've personally ever seen for a sporting event. However many people NYRA lost in attendance when Orb lost the Preakness, you gotta figure they'll lose at least as many because of this. It's a really long day there man, and to believe that the tens of thousands who party and picnic in the backyard and other green spaces will all be willing to come without coolers even with only soda and water (not to mention the creative concoctions including already-banned alcohol); and with a single portion of food and beverage per person in a clear plastic bag (Jessica tweets: The 2013 Belmont Stakes brought to you by the TSA) is a pipe dream I think (though don't get any idea about bringing any pipes or other illicit paraphernalia).

People are gonna reflexively blame NYRA as usual, but I would say they are doing what they have been advised to do in the wake of the Boston bombing. The press release takes pains to point out that the policy was "developed in concert with federal, state, and local law enforcement officials, as well as racing and security officials in Kentucky and Maryland." Indeed, just as it's a sad commentary on the game that tracks feel the need to implement, mostly for show in my opinion and as I've said before, such harsh controls for races at the highest echelon of the game, these security procedures for people are quite the sad commentary on the state of the world. No doubt it's the equivalent of a signer for those who seek to disrupt our way of life. Because it's disrupting our way of life. (And, by the way, no truth to the rumor that the IRS is singling out Tea Party members for scrutiny of their racetrack winnings.)

Well, for those of you who don't like clicking on links, I thought I'd summarize the measures that are being taken both for horses on the backstretch and for people in the grandstand (including employees, vendors, and the insidious media). However, my eyes are glazing over from all these relentless rules and restrictions, so I think I might have gotten a little mixed up. And perhaps a bit carried away. Please let me know if you notice anything awry.

- All horses will be subjected to an electronic wand search upon entering the paddock. Trainers are advised to arrive early in order to remove the horses' shoes for inspection.

- The Commission shall take out-of-degenerate-gambling blood samples of fans planning to attend the race on Wednesday, June 5 and send them to the Anthony Weiner campaign for testing.

- As in years past, alcohol may not be brought onto the grounds; but beer will flow abundantly at refreshment stands, and any patron desiring an injection of Lasix can receive one with an appointment with Commission investigators and a note from their doctors (which must be carried by hand and not in a briefcase or a duffel bag, both banned).

- Entry/exit logs will be maintained by additional security personnel from NYRA and the Commission. All persons entering a stall in the restrooms (should they be operational) or engaging in any contact with porcelain objects ~~or performing any services~~ will be logged in with a reason for their visit.

- Horses will be permitted a supply of hay and feed, to be contained in a clear see through plastic container no larger than 175"L x 87"W x 85"H (as long as they don't plan to grill, which is banned).

- To comply with the ban on tripods, no races with claiming tags less than $15,000 will be carded.

- Ice will be sold on the grounds at minimal prices for horses who need to be iced down (with the permission of, and supervision by, Commission investigators).

- A full daily doctor's record of all medications and treatments given to fans from noon on June 5 through race day will be provided to the Stewards. Such records will be posted on the NYRA website and announced daily during the Talking Horses segment. All prescription and over-the-counter drugs will be confiscated upon entrance, and no treatments for patrons will be permitted on raceday unless it is approved by Andy Serling.

- No air horns or noise makers, and patrons are asked to keep cheering to a minimum (which shouldn't effect me at least). Fans are prohibited from slapping rolled-up programs against their legs, snapping their fingers at the screens, or making any other sound that might indicate that they are having fun.

- No saddles larger than 18" in diameter.

- Patrons can't spray mace at the horses or jockeys.

- Cell phones and tablets are permitted, but all Twitter accounts in horses' names are banned. Forever.

- No Weapons. So jockeys will not be permitted to carry whips.

Belmont Stakes 2013 - Overanalyze is due to win

Thu, 23 May 2013 09:37:58 +0000

Win one, lose one. Win another, lose another. It would appear that Overanalyze purchased a one-way ticket to Inconsistentville. On the other hand, he just might be ready to pull off a Belmont Stakes 2013 surprise.

Since his career debut on August 9, the Repole runner has a perfect win-every-other-start record.

1st - Md Sp Wt

4th - Hopeful

1st - Futurity

3rd - Iroquois

1st - Remsen

5th - Gotham

1st- Arkansas Derby

11th - Kentucky Derby

??? - Belmont Stakes

Now as an analytical bettor, and not a hunch player, I would never play Overanalyze simply because of his rather unusual pattern pointing to a win in his next start. Rather, I look for more concrete reasons why the long shot may have his day in the sun in the Belmont Stakes

- Draw a line through his Kentucky Derby. While it is true that this year’s Run for the Roses was rather uneventful as most Derbies go, Overanalyze did not have a great trip. Mind you, the trouble was certainly not enough to have put him up near Orb with a clean run, but without a couple of shuffled backs and losses of momentum, his middle of the pack finish c

Who Am I ???

Wed, 22 May 2013 19:59:30 +0000

*Bred in Florida, I began my career under the famed twin spires of Churchill Downs.

*A winner of half of my starts as a juvenile, my first stakes race came as a three-year-old.

*The combined winning margin of my first two stakes victories totaled exactly ten lengths.

*Once on the Kentucky Derby trail, I did not make it back to Louisville for the Run for the Roses.

*A winner of races from six furlongs to 1 ¼ miles, I was a stakes winner on tracks labeled, fast, good, and muddy.

*My last trainer won a Belmont Stakes with a horse one year younger than me.

*Making it to the track in six consecutive seasons, I won at least one race in each of those years.

*My initial stakes win came in Arkansas, as did my first two attempts in graded stakes racing.

*Never a stakes winner himself, my sire was graded stakes placed. My dam was a multiple stakes winner, though.

*My four biggest career wins all came at the same track in the East Coast.

*Besides my favorite track, more of my victories came in New Orleans than anywhere else.

You should know by now … Who Am I ???

TBA Feed #1

Busy on the Biz this week!

2013 Belmont Stakes Picks

Belmont Stakes Only ($25)

Belmont Full Card ($50)

Belmont Week ($99)

Belmont Week+Saratoga Meet ($150) *BEST VALUE!!*

Where Are the Professionals?

Kauai Katie should be tested in the Acorn

Weekend Preview

Beyer Figs, Hidden Positives & Pop Bottles

Lameness Evaluation: American Sensor System Tests Successfully in British Research

Belmont Stakes Rules and Regulations Cast a Pall

Belmont Stakes 2013 - Overanalyze is due to win

Who Am I ???

Belmont Week+Saratoga Meet ($150) BEST VALUE!!