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Fantasy Hype Train vol. III: Warm Cinders in the Wreckage

noreply@blogger.com (Three By Five Sports Network) — Sun, 02 Aug 2015 17:37:00 +0000

Hype can get the better of even our most seasoned, down-to-earth veterans in this most dangerous of games.* Only so much of fantasy football can be planned for; as I've purported many times, it is a dice game at even its best, and one bad roll can lead to the whole roster failing. Those "bad rolls" are often vilified through a combination of seething hate, over-correction, and recency bias against their performance. Such players enter a period known as post-hype, laying amidst the wreckage of their popped bubble. Like a digital hobo, we can pick through this garbage to find some valuable toys, guaranteed to be cheap as most players shy away from their recent collapse. Here are a few post-hype players that I believe can regain some of their old sheen.

Pictured: The most famous digital hobo

Doug Martin

ADP: 93rd overall

Martin's rookie year whipped our collective heads into a tizzy; I'm sure we all remember his famed drubbing of Oakland (272 total yards, 4 touchdowns) en route to rookie stardom. However, it all seems like a faded half-tale now, after Martin's recent underwhelming seasons. Tethered by constant injury and a bottom-five offensive line, Martin lumbered towards consequent sub-3.8 YPC finishes. The Lovie Smith regime drafted competition in versatile Charles Sims last year to push Martin's snap count down and marginalize his impact. However, Sims looked even worse than a banged-up Martin (he battled ankle and hamstring problems) with a woeful 2.8 YPC. Now ridden of the ankle woes that hobbled him in 2014, Martin enters a contract year determined to not fade from the league like so many other stars that flame out in short order. Camp reports peg Martin as the current starter, and he's apparently down to 210 pounds (a change that helped springboard fellow youngster Le'Veon Bell from plodder to deity). The Bucs, for their part, may have finally bucked their perennially-terrible offenses, thanks to Jameis Winston and Dirk Koetter. A few weeks ago, I pegged the duo as a major boon for Austin Seferian-Jenkins, but the entire offense should improve thanks to their entry. Koetter's offensive history, while recently more pass-happy, featured top-15 rushing attempt finishes during his 5-year tenure in Jacksonville (outside of 2008, Maurice Jones-Drew's rookie year). With three skyscrapers for pass-catchers and a former 1500-yard rusher, Koetter has the tools to hopefully bring balance to the offense. Winston, for his part, should keep defenses honest through the air, leaving softer fronts for Dougie to face. Available at the 7-8 turn, Muscle Hamster is one of the last starting backs available before we dip into committees, handcuffs, and talent fliers. While I doubt he'll win your league like his 2012 self, value exists at his ADP to get a positive return.

Keenan Allen

ADP: 57th overall

Yes, I know, I whiffed on Allen bouncing back from a disastrous start last year. I waved my e-pecker in the wind in blind expectation of a resurgence that never materialized. After the season, Allen blamed his own ego and lack of focus for the regression, and reportedly shared his revelation of "how difficult it is to stay on top in the pros" with QB Phillip Rivers. Since then, camp reports have pointedly highlighted Allen's renewed work ethic; in addition to running drills with more fervor, he's also dropped weight in order to maximize his admittedly-average speed. Allen, like Martin, left signs of elite playmaking talent on rookie tape. He already runs some of the cleanest routes in the league, sports excellent hands, and looks to be adding speed and discipline to round out his game. San Diego has made positive changes to the offense, most of which should help Allen's fantasy prospects. The once-tinfoil offensive line added Orlando Franklin and Joe Barksdale in an effort to get the unit out of the league basement. Stevie Johnson steps into Eddie Royal's old role, a definite upgrade for the slot. While he should command more defensive attention underneath, Johnson may also bite into some of Allen's shallow targets. While I don't have particularly rosy expectations for rookie Melvin Gordon, if he can stay healthy throughout the season, he's already offering more balance than Ryan Mathews used to. Unfortunately for our purposes, Allen's price has risen to the 5th round in standard drafts, partly thanks to Antonio Gates' suspension, and is hovering right around the intersection of proper value and risk. Surrounded by riskier wideouts like Andre Johnson, Amari Cooper, and Sammy Watkins, Allen is worth taking a shot on as a locked-in #1 target on his team.

Reggie Bush

ADP: 119th overall

Old Reggie had a tough final year in Detroit: coming off a top-20 finish, he played in only 11 games due to being made of plastic, busting on his 35th overall ADP in the process. Like a tumbleweed, Bush has ambled into Levi's Stadium, aimless and cast astray. Luckily, the 49ers seem to know exactly what to do with him. As Carlos Hyde's new running mate, Bush should see the field about as much as he did with the Lions, which should provide a solid production floor as long as he stays upright. Early in the offseason, San Francisco seemed a poor landing spot for Bush, with little opportunity to be had against Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin, and Hyde. Since then, half the defense has retired or shipped off, the offensive line took two major hits, and new coach Jim Tomsula has backed a move towards the air game and maximizing Colin Kaepernick's powerful arm. Frisco's expected win total has plummeted to 6.5, and bookies are still backing the under. While game flow may suffer under the new cupboard-cleaned 49ers, Bush's expected opportunity has exploded. Still an able runner with much more reliable hands and pass-protection than Hyde, Bush should see the field in no-huddle and hurry-up formations, of which many are expected as the team plays catch-up. He also provides a great underneath target if (when) Kaepernick flushes out of the pocket and is forced to improvise. Bush currently lasts into the double-digit rounds, where he can serve as a high-upside flier whose cost won't be mourned if he ends up missing more time.

*It's really not dangerous at all, unless you're at a Raiders game.
--
Lucio Leone
@thethirdesquire

Fantasy Hype Train vol. II: Hopping the Rails

noreply@blogger.com (Three By Five Sports Network) — Wed, 22 Jul 2015 13:52:00 +0000

Self-attribution bias theorizes that, if a single person experiences success, it was by their own doing, while setbacks or failures come about due to others or circumstances or anything BUT that given person's actions. It leads to people erroneously trusting in their own decisions and ideas without critical examination. SAB factors into player hype inflation just as much as any other aspect of one's life. Dropping a penny on a train rail in the hopes of appearing on the five-o-clock news surveying fresh wreckage is not only a possible sign of major psychoses, but also of naivete; even if one didn't know such a story had been debunked over a century ago as pure myth, the idea that a sliver of pliable ore could flick tons of metal into the air like a dandelion head should ring a skepticism bell somewhere. Excessive speed, be it via neglect or hubris or whatever, CAN induce a rail-hop. What I'm trying to get at through this contrived and woefully-thin allegory is that one's plans can launch off the rails through excessive hype for a given player, disregarding pitfalls due to situational blindness. This exercise looks at a pair of well-liked fantasy prospects through an objective and critical lens, so our excitement doesn't leave us like the opening scene in Unbreakable.

A wildly underrated movie, by M. Night Shyamalamadingdong, no less

C.J. Spiller

MFL ADP: 52, Fantasy Pros ranking: 62 (RB26)

Spiller's road has been a long one thus far. A former first-round pick of the Bills, he cobbled together only one productive season, but damn, was it a great one. Spiller's 2012 seems ethereal now, but its memory still tugs at our senses come draft time. His ceiling is sky-high, we rationalize, which isn't wrong at all. But potential alone cannot justify a player's price...so we look to his new surroundings. Spiller left Buffalo in the lurch this offseason and now fills Pierre Thomas/Travaris Cadet's old role in New Orleans. Combined, the duo saw 106 of the team's 154 RB targets last year, a number that could grow in the post-Jimmy Graham era. Pundits expect Spiller to be third on the team in overall targets, behind sophomore Brandin Cooks and senior citizen Marques Colston. Momentum is already building behind his market value as people sum his talent with the new offense. It's a volatile situation that promises to exacerbate gradually; one must keep the Spiller love in check and correct for his possible failings. As I've previously mentioned, Sean Payton has gradually retooled his offense into a more balanced attack than it once was, hoping to feature Mark Ingram as the primary weapon outside Drew Brees; this will likely lead to an effort to keep two tight ends on the field more often, which would mean Spiller will either split out wide or just come off the field. While Spiller's lack of other production in Buffalo resulted partly from the coaching staff having its collective head up its ass regarding Spiller's ability in space ("WHY ARE YOU RUNNING HIM BETWEEN THE TACKLES OVER AND OVER?"), it still carries weight. We've seen glimpses on the field since 2012, but nothing substantial enough to convince me that it wasn't an outlier season. Another bit to recall is Spiller's penchant for getting hurt. He's missed 8 games over the past two years and still fights off a lingering ankle issue. At his current ADP, Spiller is right at the intersection of worth and value: you're getting exactly what you pay for. I expect his price to bubble over into the third round as the offseason buzz grows louder and beat writers pump him up even more than they already have, which makes him too much of a possible liability outside of PPR leagues for my tastes.

Melvin Gordon

MFL ADP: 30, Fantasy Pros ranking: 29 (RB13)

Ho-lee shit. Rookie Derangement Syndrome once more attacks our young and burns our villages to tinder. Gordon came off the board the second RB and takes his talents to San Diego, which even Ray Charles saw coming. He takes over from new Eagle Ryan Mathews as the two-down runner for the Chargers, alongside passing down back and resident "lunchpail guy" Danny Woodhead. Don't take his presence here as a knock on the guy; I think Gordon runs well and can find success in the Chargers' system. But, and you may notice the theme here, one must take a measured approach to his fantasy potential. First off, Gordon is a former Badger. The RB-friendly system and monstrous offensive line at Wisconsin has buoyed otherwise-average backs for over a decade, with their last successful NFL transplant being Ron Dayne in 2000 (Montee Ball hasn't looked too great thus far, but he's still young, so he gets a mulligan for now). While dazzling when he escapes the defense and hits the second level, Gordon sometimes gave up on dirty runs: NFL.com noted him being stuffed on 20% of his runs. Going from one of the top lines in college ball to the 26th-ranked run-blocking unit in the NFL (last year) casts an ominous pallor over the future this stat portends. On the other hand, his shifty footwork and fluid hips help him to escape tackles, as evidenced by his 1200 yards after contact last year. Plus, San Diego's line improved somewhat after the season, having added Orlando Franklin and TJ Clemmings into the mix. Gordon adds nil to the pass game due to shaky protection and lobster claws, so his opportunities are already limited early on. He'll have to simultaneously run near optimal efficiency (difficult) and rip off some home runs (slightly less difficult) to return on his owner's almost bombastic investment. San Diego draws a somewhat tough RB schedule this year, but gets to play Oakland championship week. I expect Gordon to start slow but close the year as a solid RB2; he should be avoided at his draft-day price, but may prove a juicy trade chip as the year progresses.

--Lucio Leone
@thethirdesquire

Fantasy Hype Train, vol. I: Drink the Kool-Aid

noreply@blogger.com (Three By Five Sports Network) — Tue, 14 Jul 2015 19:23:00 +0000

Training camp: where sanity and restraint go to die. Player reports flood in, dripping with optimism and hyperbole. We've all heard the beats before; "Player X looks better than anyone I've seen step onto this field EVER," "His catch radius is the size of the Voyager 2 spacecraft," "If Rice and Sanders had a child, he wouldn't be half as fast as this guy," ad nauseum. The hype train is picking up steam once again, boys and girls, and like it or not, we're along for the ride. I'll be running through a few exemplary cases from both ends of the fantasy spectrum: possible hype heroes, and violent, mortifying train crashes. Let's begin on a positive, hopeful note, with those players who I believe can live up to their buzz.

As a side note, please do yourself a favor and Google "Thomas the Dank Engine."

Conductor: Ameer Abdullah, RB, DET

MFL ADP: 55, Fantasy Pros ranking: 86

Ameer Abdullah entered the draft sporting a 6.6 yards per touch average, having just whipped the Big Ten for almost 2000 total yards. Despite a perceived lack of ideal size and some fumbling concerns, Detroit spent their second-rounder on the shifty back and, along with multiple offensive line pickups, made it clear the organization intends to upgrade their trench warfare corps as much as possible. Abdullah landed in one of the most rookie-friendly scenarios, presently stepping into Reggie Bush's vacated role as passing back (ahead of pundit-anointed incumbent Theo Riddick). Camp reports peg Abdullah as the informal MVP, and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi already envisions his shiny new toy as part of a "one-two punch" with hammer Joique Bell. Lombardi's scheme, having gleaned many elements from former boss Sean Payton, affords RBs an impressive share of targets: last year, Bell, Riddick, and Bush combined for over 150 targets, one quarter of the team's total. Calvin Johnson's three-game absence acted as a mitigating factor in these results, but note that none of the RB trio played a full season, either; in fact, Bush saw the field for only 11 weeks and still put up a 40-of-56 line. So, as it currently stands, Abdullah's a solid bet to outproduce Bush's lacluster 2014 and offer up a comfortable return on investment. Digging a bit deeper into conjecture, however, is where the hype shifts into fifth gear. Bell, at the current rate, will open 2015 as the Lions' nominal starting RB. Even as a fan of his, though, I can admit he's a pedestrian runner at best, whose production comes more from effort and maximizing his opportunities than noteworthy talent. There exists a canyon between him and Abdullah in terms of natural ability, and Abdullah has all but declared that he wants to usurp Bell and take on a three-down workload. Of course, hedging bets on talent has felled many a fantasy GM in the past (thanks, Matt Asiata), so one must keep Abdullah's many roadblocks to stardom in mind. At his current MFL10 ADP of 55, Abdullah is a dice-roll, and sits ahead of comparable picks like Shane Vereen, DeSean Jackson, and the aforementioned Bush (assuming San Francisco's monumental defensive losses lead to a bunch of pass-first gameflow, Bush should amass sufficient volume for our needs.) Composite rankings from Fantasy Pros peg him at a much more reasonable 86, but rankings this early in the process bleed volatility, so that number means close to nil right now. I'll likely draft Abdullah wherever I can manage it if he falls into the late fourth or fifth round, but until the fog clears from Detroit's depth chart, anything higher burns capital.

Lumber Car: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB

MFL ADP: 130, Fantasy Pros ranking: 150

ASJ's rookie year had all the usual trappings of a greenhorn tight end: playbook confusion, sloppy routes, low production, and an overall slow start to his playing career. Entering year two, ASJ is staring down what should be a mountainous leap up the rankings. Gone are the floundering temps Lovie Smith employed in journeyman Josh McCown and interim OC Marcus Arroyo; in their places stand first overall pick and lauded QB prospect Jameis Winston, and former Atlanta offensive boss Dirk Koetter. Not to mince words, but Jenkins may have slipped into TE Valhalla. Koetter oversaw one of the most TE-heavy offenses in history during his time with Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez, and considers the position integral to offensive efficacy. Meanwhile, Famous Jameis enters the league pro-ready with impressive pocket mechanics, already an upgrade over erratic McCown. Winston, like his new OC, loves his TEs, having siphoned targets to his former Seminoles teammate Nick O'Leary (who finished with a 50-618-6 line their senior year). Now he gets a massive talent upgrade, trading his hardy maple for a towering, steely oak. ASJ's currently turning heads in spring practices, but such news is expected. When the pads go on later this month, we can put him under the microscope to judge whether he's made the requisite progress in body control, routes, and playbook knowledge. His current rank evokes the tentative optimism surrounding Tampa's offense with Winston at the helm; he displayed lax ball control and sketchy intermediate accuracy in 2014, and expecting much growth out of a rookie would be foolish (especially alongside recent biases fueled by Andrew Luck, Russel Wilson, and 2013 Robert Griffin). A particularly shallow TE pool coming into this year's fantasy season may also artificially inflate ASJ's price, to a point where one overpays for his potential without considering his floor. Naturally, all of this is speculation, but if Jenkins' price hovers around its current spot, I'd have no qualms punching my ticket for the hype train.

Caboose: Nick Toon, WR, NO

MFL ADP: 202, Fantasy Pros ranking: 225

New Orleans football has been in somewhat dire straits lately. The defense under Rob Ryan regressed last year, and recently lost a valued producer in Junior Galette. Drew Brees fell under Father Time's horrid spell, throwing passes with less fervor and zip than we expect from the Pro Bowler. Faced with the issues at hand, Sean Payton took a chisel to his offense, recrafting it into a more balanced-looking ground control squad. While such a change may not lead to record stats, many transactions within Payton's plan stand to benefit wideout Nick Toon. Toon enters his third season with 21 career catches, having spent his first two years buried on the depth chart and sidelined with injuries. As superstitious followers will spout, a WR's third year oozes breakout potential thanks to full scheme development and general comfort. Toon may have far less game-time experience than most third-year players, but his offensive role balances this out. Jimmy Graham, the number-one team target, is sipping frappucinos in Seattle; deep man Kenny Stills now languishes in South Beach with one of the worst deep passers in the league; and former understudy Marques Colston looked positively spent when on the field last year. Toon faces little competition for outside targets opposite Brandin Cooks and, thanks to his not-insignificant height advantage over the twitchy sophomore, may gobble the lion's share of replacement end zone targets. The Saints' defense improved outside of Galette's pectoral tear this offseason, which may lower Toon's ceiling a bit; on the other hand, positive game flow should be on his side. Attached to a still-elite quarterback, enviable game planner, and productive offense, Nick Toon is worth his dart-throw-round price. He provides solid wideout depth with the potential to overtake Colston for targets, possibly rising as high as third in priority targets (likely behind Cooks and new arrival C.J. Spiller or veteran TE Josh Hill).

Five Nuggets of Wisdom to Keep in Mind at Your First Draft

noreply@blogger.com (Three By Five Sports Network) — Tue, 07 Jul 2015 19:44:00 +0000

Congratulations to you, new fantasy footballer, on prancing over the metaphorical Rubicon and joining our collective degeneracy! I welcome you with open arms and a somewhat less-than-appropriate erection, assuredly a natural result of my excitement. Entering this world of statistics, names, procedure, and strategy can seem daunting, but push your fears into that dark corner of your brain filled with cobwebs and awkward teenage memories. Here, we seek to help you, new meat, on your way to your first fantasy draft. I've outlined a few important points in my personal credo to keep you from hopping the rails and crashing, in the hopes that your first experience is wholly satisfying.

1: Have a plan ready. Arguably the most obvious point about drafting, it's also the most glaring mistake that can be made. Drafters should enter the war room with a goal in mind and a strategy one how to achieve it. Are you aiming for a more value-based draft? Best player available? Maybe a zero-RB or upside-down approach? General ideas of how to traverse the draft-board-minefield help make the trip more forgiving. Note, though, the use of the phrase "general ideas." Too strict adherence to a plan traps even seasoned GMs in the same pit as blind drafters when something goes awry. Focus and flexibility encompass a proper mindset when the fateful day arrives, which leads us into...

2: Don't get cute early on. Studs are studs for a reason; they marry consistency, ability, production, scheme fit, and a host of smaller game aspects better than most other players at a given position. And while myriad scoring formats exist, I've not come across one that awards bonus points for boasting that you totally knew Kendall Wright would blow up and that's why you took him over Demariyus Thomas. Granted, the example would likely never happen outside hyperbole, but getting too absorbed in your personal biases can blind you to potential mistakes, value discrepancies, and the like. The draft is your kingdom's foundation, and if you build it on a fault line, nobody will care when it topples into the abyss.

...Has that ever happened in real life? Maybe I've watched The Core too many times.

3: Study, study, study. My first draft was a disaster due to my ignorance and half-finished research into the league; I drafted Beanie Wells fifth overall, not knowing he'd torn a ligament and would be out for the year, because I lacked to foresight to simply Google the damn name a few days beforehand. The rest of the day followed a similar path fraught with injuries, absurd reaches, and horrid roster construction ("Four quarterbacks is the safest way to go!") Familiarize yourself with your league's scoring system, where bonus points are allotted, what positions you have to start every week, all the basics. Participate in live mock drafts with real people, as opposed to rankings-based computers. Utilize the resources at your disposal; don't be ashamed to copy expert lists or pore over preparatory articles (cough) if it makes you more comfortable.

4: Attach yourself to good teams and soft schedules wherever possible. Reality and fantasy overlap more than we tend to realize. I've written before about the deceptive effects of positive and negative game flow on a team's ability to "remain on script;" when a team is winning, coordinators tend to follow their laid-out plan more closely, and this positive game script affords players a fantasy-friendly environment. For instance, Ryan Mathews averages five fantasy points more in wins than losses, due to the Chargers' tendency to veer towards an air attack and marginalize ball-control. To stack up some additional examples on how the phenomenon works, check out Football Guys' empirical RB analysis from 2012 here. Though not as pronounced, positive game script also affects other skill positions (most notably the quarterback,) driving perpendicular to the "shootouts always mean more points" myth. Hence, filling your stable with players from good overall teams helps to reduce random chance and keep your players on the plus side of game flow.

5: Have fun, and don't overthink it. As hokey as the phrase may be, it rings hollow too often. Take a metaphysical perspective for a moment: each week, you roll the dice on whether your Giant Running Back with plus-three tackle breaking ability actually puts it to use, or hits a critical fail and breaks his leg. Fantasy football is merely a group of friends playing Dungeons and Dragons without the little figurines (Footballs and Factoids? Pigskins and Point-whores?) One shouldn't be dour in the midst of playing a game, especially a game he or she clearly loves to play. How many drafts ever precipitate the exact way a GM expects? Not even Ol' Predictor Jones got it unequivocally right,* so keep yourself grounded and don't lose it over a few deviations from your expected result.

*Ol' Predictor Jones guessed I would say this and called to confirm he's never seen a perfect draft either.

About Last Night: Rangers 1, Flames 0

noreply@blogger.com (Three By Five Sports Network) — Wed, 25 Feb 2015 19:51:00 +0000

No Nash. No Lundqvist. No Problem.

Calgary is no slouch and a 1-0 victory against a good team is just what the doctor ordered. They not only keep pace with the Islanders (also victorious last night) but finally show that they don’t have to score 5 goals each night to win.

So here’s the good and the not so good from last night.

The Good:

Cam Talbot – 21 saves, shutout & 1^st star. The win last night improved Cam’s record to 7-1-2 in Lundqvist’s absence and gave the Rangers their league-leading 9^th shutout of the season. His rebound control was much better and credit the defense around him for a change.

Defense – The goals cooled off and the defense stepped up. Finally. A few early bad turnovers aside everybody on the ice did their job well. They moved pucks to the outside, controlled rebounds and didn’t give Calgary lanes to fire away. Still believe the team is in need of some defensive depth but you certainly do worse than Dan Boyle and John Moore/Matt Hunwick as a 3^rd pairing. Speaking of defense…

3^rd Period Shutdown – Going into the 3^rd period last night Calgary had scored 74 third period goals (2^nd in the NHL behind Tampa’s 77) and they kept it that way. Calgary’s monster 3^rd periods are a big reason why they’re close to a wild card spot so keeping them off the scoreboard is an accomplishment on its own; especially for a Rangers team that’s struggled to close games out late.

Kevin Hayes (In for Rick Nash) – Karri Ramo was ON last night. It took a pretty pass from Brassard, to the sub on the line for Nash, Kevin Hayes to beat him and thankfully that’s all that was needed. The dude is still red hot with 6 goals and 11 points in the last 13 games. It’s been good to see others be able to step up when the stars go down.

Discipline – Not a single power play for the Flames. Fantastic. All the good for this.

Good/Not So Good:

Karri Ramo/J.T. Miller – Miller shoot the puck anywhere else, but RAMO WITH A SAVE!!!!

BRUH!!!!!

The Not So Good:

Tanner Glass – Why is JT Miller fighting? The only skill you seem to bring to the table is toughness and it’s not even there. How do you have a -15 on a team with one of the highest goal differentials? How you got a 3-year deal is beyond me. Hope you’re in the press box when Fast is healthy. He had a shot on goal though, his first in about 10 days, so good for you. Lee Stempiak produces better games at half the salary.

Not a whole lot of not so good. When you don’t give up a goal you can’t really bitch. A few shots wide and maybe some better finishing sure but an all-around good win, the type of win that was badly needed.

Current Standing: 37-16-6 (80 Points, 2^nd in Metropolitan)

Next Game: ***TRAP GAME ALERT*** Thursday 2/27 vs. Arizona (20-34-7, 46 Points, 6^th in Pacific)

--Mike Kane
https://twitter.com/ThatMikeKane
crossposted from https://rangers5thline.wordpress.com/

Catch-All: Value in the Second Tier of Wide Receivers in the 2015 NFL Draft

noreply@blogger.com (Three By Five Sports Network) — Wed, 25 Feb 2015 16:04:00 +0000

ALERT! Combine fever threatens to infect us all! Vigilance is your first and best defense, so keep a keen watch for the signs. Symptoms include a fever spike, leading to scorching hot takes; vertigo and neck spasms, from watching players leap skyward over and over; carpal tunnel syndrome after calculating dozens of speed and agility scores; and mild dysphoria, as your favorite prospects test worse than Morris Claiborne on the Wonderlic. To combat the pitfalls of Combine fever, stay informed and unbiased by absorbing as much information as possible from as many different sources, be they named or the mythical "anonymous scout." Above all, remain calm, lest you too succumb to the fever that claimed so many others.

Whoa, that's odd... my neck just twitched...

Combine Fever: Patient Zero

(Common features amongst these wideouts: short-area quickness and juking ability, sharp body control, fluidity in routes, proper catch technique and hand use, downfield tracking, and field awareness. Like vision and burst in runners, I value these qualities above pure athleticism for rookies as it seems to correlate with faster production and penchant towards self-betterment in the pros. As a result, I struggled with the decision to omit quick riser Nelson Agholor, but I encourage taking a look at him and the rest of the later-round receivers as well. Please leave feedback after the jump, or tweet us on the sidebar, and enjoy!)

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Jaelen Strong

6'4", 217 pounds

Best comparison: Mike Evans and Jarius Wright's lovechild
Tape versus USC, courtesy of Draftbreakdown:

Including Strong in this article may faintly bend the rules, as he's expected to last until the middle of round two at the latest. However, he's still considered an outlier from the consensus top-tier, and my crush on him forced the issue. The appropriately-named Strong tested well in Indianapolis, with his long-noteworthy explosiveness at the forefront (42-inch vertical and 123-inch broad jump). Strong's Jordan-like leaps pepper his tape, as he battles for contested catch after contested catch and boxes out defenders with his powerful frame. Yet, he isn't merely a Jermaine Kearse-style jump baller; Strong tracks like Bear Grylls in the mountains and always seems to know where the ball will end up. Getting downfield to catch deep shots is rarely an issue, though he needs a few strides to hit his second gear. Thankfully, he can shake off shallow defenders with his quick feet and awareness. Though he fails to consistently win in the small game due to choppy routes (he's stiff out of the break, likely due to his size), with practice Strong can develop that part of his game and embody the prototypical number-one wideout in the NFL.

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Tyler Lockett

5'10", 180 pounds

Best comparison: T.Y. Hilton
Tape versus Baylor, courtesy of Draftbreakdown:

If you're plugged into the draftnik streams this offseason, you'll likely sputter under waves of gushing over draftees Philip Dorsett and Devin Smith. Dorsett should find yards easy to come by if he gets some designed plays, but Smith carries a lot of Tavon Austin-like risk. The premier small receiver of this year's class, to me, is Lockett. His tape is some of the most enjoyable to watch of any player in the draft, showcasing marvelous instincts and ball sense to go with putty hands. He ran a 4.4 flat in Indy and nabbed a 10.96 agility score, falling right in line with his athletic strengths as an electric lid-popper. Purportedly, Lockett has been obliterating interviews with a combination of impressive football intelligence and sterling character. School coaches and teammates have on multiple occasions dubbed him a film junkie, which instills major confidence in his long-term outlook. Due to his lacking size, Lockett knows he has to win with his brain and legs, or he risks getting bullied all day by lanky cornerbacks. Many scouts will scoff at Lockett as a one-dimensional returner (albeit an impactful one), but I see more of a diverse, T.Y. Hilton-esque threat. Entering the draft as one of the most refined players overall, Lockett's arrow is pointing straight up.

----------------------------------

Tre McBride

6'0", 210 pounds

Best comparison: Brandon LaFell
Tape versus Richmond, courtesy of Draftbreakdown:

McBride's future in the pros muddies far more than the other three prospects on this list. As a small-school player, he flew under the radar until the Combine; after registering solid numbers all around, including a fiery 123-inch broad jump, pundits went back to pore over his reels a bit. He compares to Brandon LaFell in terms of body movement and field control, which douses my expectations for him a bit. LaFell, to this point in his career, has suffered from lapses in concentration and a tendency to play slower than his athleticism permits; both red flags hang from McBride as well. As of the Combine, he profiles as a single-layer intermediate patroller, taking on low safeties and using his natural hands to pluck off bullet passes. If a squad puts in the time to strengthen McBride's mental presence, he certainly has the potential to add layers to his game and evolve into something of a yards-after-catch maven. Despite his lower ceiling, McBride can add a much-needed versatile complement to any team's lead receiver as he matures.

--Lucio Leone

Hindsight is 20-20(14): The Dallas Cowboys' Season in Review

noreply@blogger.com (Three By Five Sports Network) — Thu, 19 Feb 2015 02:20:00 +0000

Nobody expected much out of the Dallas Cowboys in 2014. Mind you, that's not a set up for paragraph upon paragraph of I-told-you-sos; my prediction for Dallas coming into the year, as seasoned listeners of Third and Long may recall, was a less-than-rosy six wins. Rather, it's an indication of the way hindsight can color a narrative. With low expectations, Dallas had little to lose, but exploded to a 12-4 record and shattered perceptions in the process. Now, we look back upon what transpired over those 19 weeks, focusing on every detail under a microscope, trying to answer the eternal question: how? How did this happen, what should we look for in the future, and is Jerry Jones merely a vessel sloshing with formaldehyde and moonshine? As a blubbering, degenerate fan, I took on the task of answering these questions. Let's step right into the muck, shall we?

Tyron Smith: comedian

Dallas' offense ranked third overall on numberFire's Net Expected Points metric, with a total expected score of 182 by the end of the season. Almost everything was going right for the team that had hit so many speed bumps in the past. Tony Romo, a major question mark coming off back surgery, threw 34 touchdowns to only nine interceptions, and a career high 69.9 completion percentage. To put his season in perspective, league MVP Aaron Rodgers trailed Romo in passer rating and completion percentage. Romo also led the league with five game-winning drives according to Pro Football Reference, a massive feather in the cap of a quarterback unfairly derided as a choker his entire career (for more on that topic, I advise reading numberFire contributor J.J. Zachariason's thorough investigation into why that narrative flops like a dying pike.) DeMarco Murray carried similar doubts entering his final rookie-deal season, after losing game time to injury every year since he enrolled in Oklahoma. To wit, his career-first full season was also a career-best: 2,261 total yards, thirteen touchdowns, and a near-consensus Offensive Player of the Year victory. Nobody dared to malign new coordinator Scott Linehan's crew; the praise heaped upon the dominant offensive line and league-leading rushing attack couldn't be dodged by anything less than a total media blackout. Along with grown-up cyborg Dez Bryant and rising players elsewhere on the offense (Cole Beasley and the aforementioned offensive linemen especially), the Cowboys struck fear into the hearts of defensive game-planners, and by the end had found their way back to a winning record. Staff consistency and a gradual improvement in personnel scouting (particular credit to Will McClay) over the past couple of years played a not-unimportant part in building the offense into the beast we saw every Sunday. While Jason Garrett serves as a glorified figurehead for the team, his consistent leadership has been pointed out as essential to the team remaining focused. Even unsung decision-makers and teachers like linebackers coach Matt Eberflus and Jerry Jones' son Stephen deserve credit, having fostered an environment dedicated to quality and unity.

For every bright day, there must be an equally grim twilight, and the Dallas defense fit the part disappointingly well. As the season crept closer, every talking head deigned to qualify the defensive squad as anything above "the worst in history," and with good reason. The Cowboys had just released future Hall of Fame defensive end and possible Santa Claus doppelganger DeMarcus Ware due to their money troubles; outside of the always-hurt Sean Lee and inconsistent Orlando Scandrick, he was their only positive presence on defense in 2013. To patch the ship, Dallas signed a few one-year-deal free agents (Henry Melton, Jeremy Mincey, Terrell McClain) and brought in defensive-line guru Rod Marinelli to glop the amorphous mess into something coherent. Dusk turned to full-blown nighttime when Sean Lee tore his ACL in training camp, sidelining him for the entire year. Dallas was forced to take a wild shot on infamous draft bust Rolando McClain to try and fill this new, monstrous hole. In hindsight, everyone agrees this defense should have lived up to expectations as the worst in history, but a few strokes of luck hit the team. Melton and Mincey performed well above their pay grades in rotational roles. Rolando turned into a force at middle linebacker, fortifying the leaky run defense and eventually leading the defensive locker room. Young tackle Tyrone Crawford took a big step forward in his development and now looks like a potential long-term starter at three-technique. And behind the scenes, Marinelli schemed some creative and highly-efficient plans. Where did all of this overachievement lead the D in Big D? A bottom-ten finish with 84 net expected points against. A historically-sharp offense and some miraculous personnel turns only lifted the defense enough to barely tread water. The secondary play, not counting solid play from Scandrick, was a special kind of terrible. Without a starting-caliber free safety, the team was trotting out J.J. Wilcox at center field, which ended in spectacular failure. Barry Church, one of the nominally-best tacklers on the team, had weekly bouts of forgetting to wrap up on plays. Brandon Carr waited until week 15 to start justifying his exorbitant contract, and even then never rose above "mediocre." In an instance brimming with irony, Morris Claiborne was threatened by journeyman Sterling Moore for perimeter and nickel corner duty, but lost his season to injury in week five before he got a chance to re-cement the job. While I ascribe to the adage that a good defense is built front-to-back, not even the Fearsome Foursome can mitigate an invisible secondary.

D. Lawrence and D. Harris

Looking forward, I feel a sense of cautious optimism for this team. Undoubtedly, the offense will regress towards the mean after an all-around bombastic season. Murray is especially at-risk of tanking if he remains in Dallas, after weathering the strain his massive workload caused. Contract negotiations with skill players always risk turning ugly, and while Dez has grown into a mature leader for the team, the situation could go sour if he isn't paid handsomely. On the other hand, the defense should experience a similar regression, this time positively. Many of the defense's positive contributors, like Mincey, Selvie, and Melton, may not return (the team already declined Melton's option, sending him off to the free agent pool). However, young players like Demarcus Lawrence, Anthony Hitchens, Ken Bishop, and Crawford soften the blow and offer a bit of hope for the future. Lee will ideally recovery from his injury, and with Rolando, can turn the linebacking corps into a strength. The coming draft has been referred to as "the year of the pass rush," ripe with gifted defenders that can add to the current youth core; expect Marinelli to get plenty of new toys after the offseason closes. Financially, the team has finally escaped salary cap paralysis. Pending an expected pay cut from Carr, who currently siphons over 12 million dollars from the team's salary, enough room should exist to allow the team to swing a couple of deals (Rahim Moore, if affordable, is my pipe dream FA signing). In a more macrouniversal sense, the competition within the NFC East promises to be much fiercer than last year, as New York and Philadelphia get further settled in their new schemes and personnel. Expecting to trounce the rest of the division is foolish.

In sum, 2014 in Dallas was a year rife with success, luck, and diligence. Many opportune swings of fate took place that helped the Cowboys' rise through the ranks. Week four in Seattle often represents the galvanizing moment, where the team had turned a corner; the defense often swarmed Russel Wilson and forced him into mistakes, while Murray trampled the Seahawks' mythical run-stuffers. I often posit the reality of their win hinging partly on Seattle's absurd refusal to run the ball in the second half of the game after the defense was gashed by it earlier; one can only chalk this up to blind luck. However, after years of seeing bad luck haunt the team between horrid last-minute decisions and mind-boggling plays, it was nice to feel like they had briefly escaped being one of the football gods' playthings. Here's to the offseason, and to looking towards the future.

Oh, and the answer to the third question: science cannot confirm or deny whether Jerry has a working ventricular system. Take that as you will.

Now git me my lassoin' rope, I'm a-huntin' yuppies today

--Lucio Leone

Perfect Time for the Spotlight in New York to be on Hockey…For Good?

noreply@blogger.com (Three By Five Sports Network) — Thu, 19 Feb 2015 00:17:00 +0000

Let’s be honest Rangers fans, no one wants the Islanders to go well. I am no exception to this strain of the thought, but however they are and Rangers fans can’t ignore that anymore. However, with this resurgence in the rivalry it can only mean good things for hockey in the soon to be shared Big Apple.

Hear me out on this. Hockey has always played runner up in the city that never sleeps to a bunch of more popular teams. It’s no secret that hockey, even on the national level, isn’t as popular as its competitors in baseball, football, and basketball. This same microcosm is true in NY, always has been.

Now, why is this the perfect time for hockey to jump onto the mainstage of sports in NY? Look at what’s going on around in NY. THERE IS NOTHING GOOD TO WRITE ABOUT AS FAR AS NY SPORTS GOES. Nets and Knicks having lackluster seasons. NY Jets and Giants having laughably bad years. NYY and NYM not reaching the post season. Hmmmmm.

When someone says NY sports this year are horrible, you immediately reply with, "Have you checked out the hockey standings?”

I can already see this taking place. Cam Talbot just the other week was on the back cover of the NY Post. How often does that happen in NY? A back-up goaltender making the cover of one of the most widely read papers in the country. Kevin Klein continues to make headlines almost wherever you look in the media. The media is even so closely following Henrik Lundqvist’s injury that i’m getting updates on my phone when the guy rides a bike! Not to mention that two potential Hart trophy winners are playing down the road from each other in Nash and Johnny T.

On the Island, it’s the same team. With “old barn” closing down this year there was always going to be a little attention, but with the team playing so well it’s been even more than anyone would have thought.

I think last year the Rangers helped elevate hockey into the mainstream again in NY, because it’s no secret that when teams win, people care. However, this rivalry has been dead for some many years (the nineties, when both teams were so bad it was all we had to look forward to, don’t count), it’s so refreshing to have it back. Now, I don’t want the Isles to do too good, buttttttt for now I’ll take playoff style hockey in February over a dead rivalry any day.

All this being said, these two teams could meet in the playoffs, and a part of me does and part of me doesn’t. It’d raise hockey awareness in NY to levels rivaling the skyline in downtown Manhattan. A part of me says no because, the Isles are a good team, haha.

All I know is that these two teams playing like this, during this team of a NY Sports drought is nothing but good to raise the level of hockey in the Empire state and that whatever happens down the road, there’s gonna be some good hockey.

Game on.

--Dennis

https://twitter.com/DMalles98

About Last Night – Rangers 6, Islanders 5

noreply@blogger.com (Three By Five Sports Network) — Tue, 17 Feb 2015 19:41:00 +0000

Rangers 6, Islanders 5

Holy. Shit.

This was a wildly entertaining game and if you missed it, I’m sorry.

Normally 6-5 is a poor game with bad defense and goaltending but this was simply just a showcase of 2 very talented teams who didn’t give up. If this ends up being a playoff series, Jesus take the wheel.

THE GOOD:

Halak is Moral – The biggest reason the Islanders were previously 3-0 against the Rangers this season has been the outstanding play of Jaroslav Halak. In every previous matchup, Halak has played out of his mind. The biggest takeaway from this game is showing that Brooklyn can be beat. The Rangers show they can score goal, it was beating Halak, whose been lights out previously, that made it mean more.

No Overtime – Winning this game in regulation was key. The Metropolitan division now looks like this:

Look at all those……….games in hand.

Heart – 2-0, 3-1 and 5-3. 3 times the Rangers were down 2 goals and all 3 times they came back. Heart and unwillingness(2 Legit) to quit can carry a team a long way.

Ryan McDonagh – 2 goals and aside from a bad turnover almost leading to an Islanders shorthanded breakaway and allowing Ryan Strome in front of the net for one of his goals, he had a nice game. This is the Mac Truck we need every night.

Kevin Klein – GW Goal, another assist, fantastic penalty killing and he’s becoming a solid looking Top 4 defenseman. To think that Michael Del Zotto was the only thing given up for him; that plus a $2.9 million cap hit until he’s a UFA in 2018 and this might be the most overlooked move the team has made. It’s also time to think about putting him in McDonagh’s spot on the PP line. At least give it a try AV.

Martin St. Louis – The slump is (hopefully) over. Can’t think of a better time to break a 16 game goal scoring drought that with the game tying goal against a rival. “Sometimes when you don’t score you think you’ll never score again,” St. Louis said. “You get one and you can get going.” Well said. Keep it going.

Offense – Not much needs to be said, it just keeps going. 22 goals on the 4 game road trip. You can’t ask more than that.

Fans – Where were the Islanders fans the last 15 years? The atmosphere, and noise level in the coliseum last night gave this game a playoff feel and I loved every minute of it.

THE NOT SO GOOD:

Cam Talbot – This is a stretch but he gave up a couple easy ones. Could’ve had the Boychuk goal since there was no one in front but that was a helluva shot. His biggest save was on Casey Cizikas’ breakaway in the 1st period. That would’ve given the Isles a 3-0 early lead and probably would’ve put the game away. The Goalbuster wasn’t great but it was enough. That being said, he’s 5-1-1 in Lundqvist’s absence.

Power Play – The Islanders have the 30th ranked penalty kill in the league. That’s dead last for those keeping track. Call it a lack of penalties and Halak actually making his best saves of the night while the Rangers were on the PP but the possession and passing were spot on and made the NYI PK look like youth hockey level; but the puck didn’t get in the damn net.

I’m grasping at straws with the negatives. How much bad stuff can you find about a team currently on a 4 game winning streak all on the road and has only lost 7 times since December 8th? Not a whole lot right now.

Next Game: Thursday 2/19/15 vs. Vancouver.

Mike Kane

https://twitter.com/ThatMikeKane

https://www.facebook.com/Rangers5thLine

https://twitter.com/Rangers5thLine

What's Wrong With Youth Hockey?

noreply@blogger.com (Three By Five Sports Network) — Mon, 16 Feb 2015 21:21:00 +0000

For me, there’s nothing better in the world than going outside and playing hockey on a pond or an outdoor rink. However, through my own observations on the youth of the country, or as a whole are not following in this trend.

Now, at the risk of sounding like an old-timer at the age of 23, it’s no secret that the youth don’t get out as much. I try to skate on my outdoor rink 2 to 3 times a week. To be honest, I hardly see any young kids on the rink, ever. However, last week I saw a group of youths out on the ice right when I got there. The only issue was it wasn’t just them, it was their and their Dad’s hawking over everything they did.

Each kid had their travel team or club team’s jump suit on and were pretty good at what they did. 90% of the time the kids just worked on their one-timers and slap shots. Too me it almost seemed like an unofficial set up by the dads. At one point one of the fathers even said, “I don’t see much skating going on out there, go out and work on your stride.”

To me, going out on the pond is all about having fun. I only played a couple years of youth hockey, but I can already tell times have changed. At one point on of the kids yelled at the other kid to make crisper passes and pick it up. It, to me, seemed kind of wrong. I did however get to meet one of their little brothers. He couldn’t have been older than 6 and he wanted to play a pick- up game so bad. He asked his brothers and their friends and they all said no because they were working on their slappers. Now, what kid doesn’t wanna play pond pick up hockey? So I played 1 v 1 with the little guy, he beat me 10 to 6 according to him.

Now this is where I think we’re losing the game. Kids are being forced into the mold that their coaches and fathers want them to be. We’re losing the creativity of the game. Where do you think Wayne Gretzky learned his trade? On the ponds of Canada, that’s where. Kids are no longer allowed to be creative with how they play and are forced to be by the books.

When you're out on the pond or just playing outside, you can try things. When I was outside this day I was trying to perfect a move I saw Toews do on YouTube (in vain), but it was fun almost getting it. Being outside and away from youth hockey has allowed me to develop a style all my own. It may not be the best one, but it’s my style and I love it. I’ve been able to become a great skater, who has great hands within 5ft of the net. I may not have the best shot, or the best stick work, but I’ve always managed to stay creative. I’m 23 years old and every time I skate I wear a jersey of my favorite players still to this day.

I don’t think kids have this anymore, they’re not allowed to think out of the box. All defenders must sit on the blue line. All goalies must stay in the butterfly. Forwards need to handle the puck in a certain way.

Let me ask you though, would Bobby Orr have flown if he had been in a youth developmental program? Would Datsyk been able to undress Turco if his father had hawked his practices forcing him to work on his skating? Would the Staal brothers been as great as they are if their parents hadn’t let them skate together on the pond?

Let them play.

--Dennis Malles, Rangers' 5th Line

Contact Dennis at https://twitter.com/DMalles98

Antique Hunt: Lower-Tier Running Back Prospects in the 2015 NFL Draft

noreply@blogger.com (Three By Five Sports Network) — Sun, 15 Feb 2015 21:36:00 +0000

Clinton Portis. Edgerrin James. LaDanian Tomlinson. One often thinks of these men as relics of an epoch long passed, the last of the true feature backs. Yet, we saw them play not more than ten years ago, putting clown suits on safeties and linebackers hoping to make a play, so how is it that we now see them in grainy black-and-white? In such a small time frame, the evolution of the NFL to a high-flying pass-first league became more pronounced than ever; receivers grew larger and ran faster, the "basketball tight end" found its way into color commentary lexicon, and multiple quarterbacks either threatened or outright shattered yardage records as 5,000 became the new 4,000. Though the old ground-and-pound mentality still drew breath in remote corners of the country, everyone sang the virtues of attacking defenses through the air to win.

LDT swats at a fly

...That is, until last year. As I mentioned in a previous draft article, a substantial number of teams took the air out of the ball, so to speak, and returned their offenses to a more harmonious balance of land and sky. While some coordinators still tried to mask subpar defenses or lackluster personnel by piling on points and yards in a bid to outpace their leaks, teams like San Diego, Cincinnati, Dallas, and eventually Denver turned to attrition, wearing out opponents on the back of their running back platoons. Such a shift was not a new phenomenon, of course, as any West Coast team would quickly portend. The difference came from teams that previously hung on boisterous pass schemes had turned the league on its ear by successfully marginalizing the pass and scheming around its counterpart, as teams that did the opposite (such as Washington and San Francisco) met with failure. Arguably, the importance of it all capped in the final seconds of the Super Bowl, encapsulating the abject failure in abandoning the run. Now, we look towards an offseason of reconstruction, which promises to reflect the effects of those last-minute shockwaves. It could not have come with a better crop of hopeful rookies. April's draft promises a king's wealth of offensive talent, but no position has received more press than running back. Scouts clamor to peg this RB class as summarily the best in a decade, and posit that a similar run on backs as in the "anachronistic" 2008 draft could transpire when draft weekend arrives. Such praise appears vapid at a glance; after all, the last decade gifted us transcendent athletes like Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Frank Gore, Maurice Jones-Drew, Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles... the list could take up a page on its own. However, while these men highlight the best at their position, they were spread over many years' worth of drafts. This coming group sports fringe-first and second-rounders stretching well into the third day, thanks in part to the phenomenal depth at the position. I'm excited to see how their stories will shake out, so I've chosen to highlight a few underrated backs that occupy the tiers below consensus phenoms Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon.

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Duke Johnson

5'9", 206 pounds

Best comparison: Andre Ellington/C.J. Spiller
Tape versus Virginia Tech, 2014:

Johnson left his name emblazoned on Miami's records plaque after outpacing the aforementioned Portis and James, seizing the school's all-time rushing lead. At a compact five-foot-nine and 206 pounds, he's not pushing any piles, especially not at the professional level. Duke shines as a speed back, with a wild second gear and flashy quickness that make him dirty in space. More important, to me at least, is his stellar vision and processing speed. One scout recently declared his sight as "eagle-eye ... as if he were looking at the field from overhead." Duke picked out and diagnosed creases better than almost any of his peers, which is an essential quality for any back to have, let alone one of his small stature and lacking strength. His size also gives him a slight edge on tacklers, making him a smaller target and mitigating some of his shortcomings as a block-shedder. Out of the backfield, Johnson sports plus ball skills and puts his football intelligence to work in pass protection, taking good angles on would-be rushers. Many coaches expect him to stumble through the typical growing pains a rookie must face, as he adjusts to the speed of the game and much tighter margin for error behind the line. His size also imparts durability concerns if a team chooses to run him between the tackles at a regular clip. There doesn't seem to be much Johnson can do to rehab the issues his low strength and featherweight build cause, as putting on weight threatens to sap some of his elite speed and footwork. The Duke has a lot to like going for him and with some luck he can absolutely carry a team (like fellow U alum Frank Gore, who entered the league close to the same size), but I see him settling into a Giovani Bernard or Ahmad Bradshaw-like role in the pros, the 1A to a bigger back's 1B.

----------------------------------

David Cobb

5'11", 220 pounds

Best comparison: Alfred Morris

Tape versus San Jose State, 2014:

Shifting gears a bit, we turn from a slippery blitz runner in Johnson to a hammer back in David Cobb. Cobb rose up many big boards as the offseason commenced, shifting from anonymous face to possible second-day selection on the back of respectable all-around skills. Minnesota hasn't seen a successful pro back walk out its doors since Marion Barber (unless you count Laurence Maroney), but some scouts believe Cobb has the opportunity to buck that trend. He touts a 5.2 yards per carry average from his last college season while carrying the mail for the Golden Gophers. For my purposes, Cobb's plus vision and instincts stand as his most critical asset; he consistently lets plays develop and spies which crease to hit, an even more impressive feat considering Minnesota's Lego-strength offensive line. Excellent body control also lets him flow and adjust well on the move, forcing bad angles when he gets to the second level. Unfortunately, until the Combine comes, Cobb has little else to hang his hat on compared to other backs in the class. Outside of the aforementioned vision and fluidity, he lacks real superlatives: his speed is only above-average, he's not particularly quick or shifty, and will often get caught from behind. One scout fittingly described him as, "more efficient than dynamic ... mostly a [single-gear] runner." Another dire red flag is his tendency to play smaller than his actual strength, going down a bit too easily on contact and appearing lethargic in pass protection. Right now, Cobb seems like a less-agile Alfred Morris with sizable room to grow. A sub-4.6 forty yard dash and good performance in the shuttle drills would immeasurably aid his bid to escape day three of the draft and eventually battle for snaps as a rookie.

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Tevin Coleman

6'1", 210 pounds

Best comparison: DeMarco Murray/Darren McFadden

Tape versus Indiana State, 2014 (please excuse the toaster quality):

From an athletic standpoint, Coleman's ceiling rests higher than my other second-tier choices. He's the prototypical "natural runner," boasting great long speed to pull away at the second level and a razor's-edge first cut. While his burst off the line isn't lightning, Coleman's lower-body control allows him to smoothly affect his trajectory at a consistent speed; if a lane he's chosen mutates a bit, he can adjust for it without slowing down and sacrificing the play. Teammates have described him as a stock-car, one who, "...redlines his engine on every play." Coleman's decisive, determined effort when called upon reflects their sentiments. He keeps his legs moving against walls and can throw a violent, earth-shaking stiff arm. On the other hand, he treats every run like it's a sprint, lacking the patience to let plays develop due to his thirst for the home-run. He's got reels of tape pockmarked with missed cutback lanes and botched screens. At six-foot-one, his pad level is often somewhat high which increases his risk of both fumbling and racking up injuries. In spite of his shortcomings, it's hard for me to not drool over Coleman's highlights. He's a force out of the backfield, giving any offense an immediate playmaker. While the jury is still out on how consistent his eyes and instincts may be, patience and subtlety will come with time, and with some polish he can grow into a new-age workhorse. Besides, it's much better to have to coach an athlete to play with less fervor and spirit than he already does, as opposed to somehow inspiring one to work harder. Just ask Ryan Leaf''s coaches.

--Lucio Leone

Trade Deadline Moves

noreply@blogger.com (Three By Five Sports Network) — Sat, 14 Feb 2015 19:31:00 +0000

Usually around February, your team is gonna realize they’re either buyers or sellers. At this point there’s no secret that the New York Rangers are buyers, as they often are. The way I see it, the Rangers need to make one of three moves in order to return to the postseason and contend for a Cup.

1. First and foremost, the team absolutely needs a faceoff specialist.

Let’s be honest, the Rangers' faceoff percentage is lackluster at best. Their best two guys in Brassard and Moore aren't really getting it done. It’s seems to be every play the Rangers are chasing their own tail unable to win a draw….in either zone. They don’t need a first line guy, nor a second line guy, but a nice third line faceoff specialist who’s good on defense too. All signs seem to be pointing to Antoine Vermette. The 32 year old Canadian is set to become a UFA at the end of the year and could fit right into the Rangers system. He’s had a middle of the road year netting 12 goals and 22 assists. However, he’s a minus minus 16 and isn’t the best defensive choice if we’re being honest. Second and in my opinion the better choice, is Mike Santorelli. The 29 year old Canadian has been a name thrown around all year for the Leafs. He’s a UFA at the end of the year and at a cap hit of 1.5, you won’t need to move much money to get him on the team. He’s netted 11 goals and 18 assists, but the more impressive stat is he’s a plus 7 on a team that’s…well, let’s be honest, not so sound defensively. The name of Martin Hanzal has been thrown around, but I don’t see it happening. 3.5 million is too big of a cap hit and the contract isn’t up at the end of the year. I’d love to have the 6’6, 27 year old defensemen on the team, but it’s not realistic, I’d go Santorelli.

2. The Rangers need a 4th line tough guy, just like last year.

Tanner Glass, well let me be kind here, stunk it up this year. I liked him at the beginning of the year, but that honeymoon stage is over. He’s done nothing, literally nothing. 39 games played with 1 assists (secondary) and is a minus 17. The Rangers have proven that they have the ability to find 4th line talent in guys like Carcillo and Dorsett, but Glass was a dud. Tough guys now have to be young. The big vet enforcer role is gone and are dying out with Colton Orr and George Parros hanging them up this year. I’d like to see the Rangers go after someone, anyone. A later round draft pick should get a guy like Danny Carcillo fetched. These guys are always up for grabs, so there’s not one really in particular we’d like to see the Rangers go after. I have heard Chris Neil’s name being thrown around, and I’d like that to never, ever happen. He’s a Tanner Glass 2.0. I won’t even entertain that option and neither should the Rangers.

3. Lastly, and least importantly, is the back up’s back up in net.

No one knows when Lundqvist will be back; hopefully within a month or so he can return, but there's no certainty with this rare injury. It’s tough to really judge at this point, let’s go with what we have and that’s Cam Talbot. Now Skapski is 20 years old and not anywhere near NHL ready. So, that being said Cam will need a rest a some point. The Rangers can once again burn a later round pick for a veteran back up. Nabakov would have been my first choice because you don’t mind that contract nor putting him on waivers when Hank’s back, but he’s since hung them up. Second choice would have to be Ilya Bryzgalov. The Ducks back up goalie comes cheap, really cheap. The only issue is that Fredrick Anderson is now hurt and they’re in the same spot as the Rangers. John Gibson now is the starter in net, but now Ilya is gonna see a bigger role as the back up. Longshots are Harding of Chicago, who’d I’d imagine would come with a higher price tag. Not going to rule out Viktor Fasth on the Oilers as well as an experienced guy to come in and help.

Why The Rangers: Dennis Edition

noreply@blogger.com (Three By Five Sports Network) — Fri, 13 Feb 2015 21:24:00 +0000

When I was younger, I knew I was a little different from the rest of my class because they didn’t really care for hockey. While most talked about Derek Jeter and Sammy Sosa, I tried to find anyone who knew anything about Paul Kariya or Adam Graves.

As time went on, I found that hockey is a cult following and it’s fans are as ravenous if not more ravenous than other fans out there.

Some of my best childhood memories have taken place under the roof of the Garden. Seeing Mark Messier surpass Gordie Howe for second all time in points and watching the Rangers sweep the Atlanta Thrashers.

Times have changed, and so have the faces, but that NYR crest has always been the same. I became a true diehard that lives and dies with the team when I was a junior in college.

I just had been given the news that I would no longer be able to play sports ever again at a competitive level. I said goodbye to my college lacrosse team, and then a week later was dumped by a girl who had other ideas about her future.

Times were pretty dark, and I was a 100 miles from home living in a different state. After realizing I now had nothing to do with my time, the Rangers became the mainstay of my days. They were the thing I looked forward to the most everyday and I never missed a game.

The New York Rangers made me feel like I was a part of something again. They returned some sort of normalcy to my life and no matter who left my life and who stayed, they were always there at 7pm on MSG.

Mark Messier, Adam Graves, and Brian Leetch have since been replaced, but just like life, the team moves on. Henrik Lundqvist, Dom Moore, and Dan Mats Zuccarello fill in the voids as your favorite players and you pick up right where you left off.

So, this is my way of thanking the team that’s given me so much pain, misery, but far more joy over my whole life. Still searching for Lord Stanley, but the memories this team has given me can never have a price tag placed on it.

It isn’t just a team, it’s a part of me.

Dennis Malles – Founder and Co-Writer

https://twitter.com/DMalles98

https://twitter.com/Rangers5thLine

“Why the Rangers”

noreply@blogger.com (Three By Five Sports Network) — Fri, 13 Feb 2015 21:22:00 +0000

I’m not going to sit here and brag about the 1994 Rangers and how I remember and it’s great they’ve won a Cup in my lifetime and what not. I suppose technically yes but no.

I was 6 years old in 1994 and didn’t really have a clue about hockey let alone the Rangers. It doesn’t count in my opinion. I’m still waiting.

I believe it wasn’t until around the year 2000 or 2001, after Wayne Gretzky retired of course, that I became enthralled with the Blueshirts.

I’m not sure why but something about Eric Lindros, Theo Fleury, Petr Nedved, Bobby Holik, Sandy McCarthy, Dale Purinton tons of other crappy players and finishing 8-12 points out of a playoff spot every year really peaked my interest.

So why the Rangers? I could have chosen any good team to root for. The Yzerman/Shanahan Red Wings, the Patrick Roy Avalanche, hell even the Brodeur led trap-playing Devils. But I didn’t. I suffered and stuck it out with the team in my home city and I wouldn’t want it any other way.

I think becoming a fan when they sucked was a good thing. It really makes me appreciate playoff appearances. Sticking with them through the lockout, a complete rebuild about Jaromir Jagr to finally cracking the playoffs and then the Stanley Cup Final in 2014.

The 15 years and running I’ve spent as a hardcore Rangers fan has been amazing and I’d never change that. No matter what’s going on in my life, Rangers hockey has always been there and will continue to be there for not just the next 15 years but many many more.

I’m excited to finally blog and podcast about the Rangers alongside Dennis. While Going 5-Hole was fun, it was too broad and honestly very forced on our part at times. I know I didn’t have the time nor the knowledge needed to know every little detail about the entire NHL. However Dennis & I know most details about the New York Rangers so that’s why we’ve brought you Rangers 5th Line.

Keep checking back regularly for everything New York Rangers.

Mike Kane

https://twitter.com/ThatMikeKane

https://www.facebook.com/Rangers5thLine

https://twitter.com/Rangers5thLine

About Last Night: Rangers 6, Avalanche 3

noreply@blogger.com (Three By Five Sports Network) — Fri, 13 Feb 2015 21:19:00 +0000

Rangers 6, Avalanche 3. Yay wins!!!

Here’s a recap:

The Good:

Goals (No shit) – They’ve been getting lots of them. 5 against Toronto, 6 against Colorado, Nash still leads the league with 34 goals and the Rangers are in the Top 10 in goals scored. It’s nice to see the puck going into the net. Keep it up.

Mats Zuccarello – Looks like AV gets through to his players. He simply said when asked about Zucc shooting more, “Yes”. He seems to have listened. After just 5 goals all season prior to Tuesday, he has 3 in his last 2. With Zucc in a contract year again, goals equal money. So Keep…Shooting. Please and thank you.

Penalty Kill – It was stellar last night. Anytime you kill off a lengthy 5 on 3 it’s impressive. When you kill it off when the line includes Jarome Iginla, Ryan O’Reilly, Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog, well that’s just amazing. To add a goal right off the kill just as momentum was shifting toward Colorado, that’s how good offensive teams play good offense……don’t worry, I also hate myself for typing those words in that order into a really shitty Frank Caliendo joke.

Cam Talbot – His record is now 3-1-1 since Lundqvist went out with the sprained blood vessel. You can’t ask for much better than that. He’s making great saves when called upon and has looked better than some NHL starters……looking at you Mike Smith (Rangers vs. Arizona on Saturday night). This is the first time in Lundqvist’s NHL career he’s been out for an extended period of time but with Cam in net, the Rangers look to be just fine. Don’t ever take having a guy like Hank for granted. If his injury happened a few years ago how screwed would this team be? The answer is very.

All that being said, this is perfect audition for him. Goalbuster is under contract for next season but after that you WILL get teams that will want him as the starter. Not looking forward to playing against this guy in a couple years. #InCamWeTrust

The Not So Good:

Defensive Positioning – If there’s one thing everybody’s used to, it’s that no matter how good the defense plays, Lundqvist or Talbot will constantly be left out to dry. Whether it’s McDonagh or Girardi or John Moore or Hunwick, the opponent will get clear shots simply from d-men playing too far up, poorly turning the puck over or simply puck watching. It’s the biggest thing that needs to be cleaned up in my opinion about this team and it’s going to hold them back against the top teams in the playoffs if it continues.

Martin St. Louis – St. Louis will be 40 years old in June and he has certainly looked like it as of late. With just 1 assist since the All-Star Break he looking like he’s closer to a trip to the press box than back to the 1st or 2nd line. Maybe a week or two off with help him get his legs back.

Tanner Glass – Does he have nudes of AV or Glen Sather? I’m not sure how he stays in the lineup. He’s literally the worse.

Call anyone up. Literally anyone up from Hartford.

Overall a win is a win. 2 points on the road is always nice. Just clean it up a bit.

Next game is @Arizona on Saturday night at 8pm.

Mike Kane

https://twitter.com/ThatMikeKane

https://www.facebook.com/Rangers5thLine

https://twitter.com/Rangers5thLine

The "It's Only Been One Week Without Football But I Can't Wait Any Longer" 2015 Fantasy Football Rankings

noreply@blogger.com (Three By Five Sports Network) — Mon, 09 Feb 2015 18:08:00 +0000

Monday, February 9th, 2015. It's officially been over 168 hours since the Super Bowl between the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks has ended. I could spend this entire New York snow day (for about the fifth time in the past two weeks) writing about "THE PLAY" and let this site add in to the hodgepodge of content talking about how horrible Darrell Bevell and Pete Carroll are...but I'm not going to. It's only been a week and I'm completely sick of all the criticism of it. Let's not kid ourselves, the Seahawks are really, really talented and if I had to pick two teams to make it to the Super Bowl next year, the Seahawks would be one of my picks. So instead, as most of you could tell from the title, it's time for...

THE "IT'S ONLY BEEN ONE WEEK WITHOUT FOOTBALL BUT I CAN'T WAIT ANY LONGER" 2015 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS!!!!

Note to my league: We need this trophy

The 2014 fantasy football was definitely one to remember (or one to forget for some others). With the resurgence of Three By Five Sports Network, Lucio has already jumped right into the fantasy action with his article, A Post-Super Bowl Look at Free Agency and Fantasy. But I, being the 2014 Fantasy Football Champion of our league, feel I have the right to share my personal preseason rankings as the official Three By Five Fantasy Football Rankings. Obviously, I expect these rankings to end up being complete trash after free agency, the draft, suspensions, and any other changes start happening...but it's always fun to start thinking about fantasy early. I'll be using Lucio's and my own league's scoring as the template for these rankings (Generally standard 0.5 PPR scoring with some bonuses and what-not).

1. Le'Veon Bell - RB - Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Jamaal Charles - RB - Kansas City Chiefs
3. Eddie Lacy - RB - Green Bay Packers
4. DeMarco Murray - RB - FA (I personally expect him to stay with Dallas)
5. Matt Forte - RB - Chicago Bears
6. Rob Gronkowski - TE - New England Patriots
7. Antonio Brown - WR - Pittsburgh Steelers
8. Calvin Johnson - WR - Detroit Lions
9. LeSean McCoy - RB - Philadelphia Eagles
10. Adrian Peterson - RB - FA (No idea where he'll end up yet)
11. Demaryius Thomas - WR - FA (I expect him to stay with Denver)
12. Dez Bryant - WR - FA (I expect him to stay with Dallas)

Not too many surprises here, although most people probably have their own personal ranking of the top players. I'm putting Bell at the top spot because I fully expect him to duplicate (or at least come close to) what he did last year. Even with the looming suspension for the DUI problem he had with Blount earlier this year, I still can't put anyone else at number one. He's the complete every-down back and I really wish I had him as a keeper in my league. Some people may be afraid of the fact that he plays against the NFC West this year, but I wouldn't spend more than one second thinking about who would be my number one pick. Charles and Lacy are obvious top three picks in my opinion as well, which leaves out my favorite running back of them all (the one that almost singlehandedly won me my league), DeMarco Murray. I'm ranking him at number four due to the fact that I'm expecting Dallas to somehow be able to hang on to him and Dez, which gives Murray arguably the best offensive line in the league to help him repeat what he did last year. "But Alex, why is he not a top three pick, or even number one, if you expect him to replicate what he did last year?" Well, there's one thing that scares me about Murray...his injury history. Since Murray had such a huge workload this past year, I feel like we almost have to expect at least three or four games missed. Those games will make the difference for why he's not a top three pick, otherwise he should dominate just like before. Some more running backs, as well as the top tier WRs round out the rest of the rankings. One last note, Rob Gronkowski is a beast in a super shallow tight end pool. He's a huge difference maker and everyone should at least consider taking him in the first round. I personally doubt he makes it to the second round in most drafts.

13. Aaron Rodgers - QB - Green Bay Packers
14. Marshawn Lynch - RB - Seattle Seahawks
15. Arian Foster - RB - Houston Texans
16. Jordy Nelson - WR - Green Bay Packers
17. Jimmy Graham - TE - New Orleans Saints
18. Julio Jones - WR - Atlanta Falcons
19. Andrew Luck - QB - Indianapolis Colts
20. CJ Anderson - RB - Denver Broncos
21. AJ Green - WR - Cincinnati Bengals
22. Jeremy Hill - RB - Cincinnati Bengals
23. Odell Beckham Jr. - WR - New York Giants
24. TY Hilton - WR - Indianapolis Colts

I don't think Marshawn Lynch is going anywhere, especially not retiring like he said he would. But he's not a first round pick because of the risk with his age...same with Foster. Once again, there really aren't too many surprises here (as well as the rest of my rankings) except for possibly Odell Beckham. I'm not ranking him as high as others because I think they hype is out of control. I'm not ready to say he's better than other receivers like Julio Jones and Jordy Nelson, especially because both of them are in better situations. It's also unknown how the return of Victor Cruz will impact the production of Beckham (I don't think it will much, but it's possible to make a big impact since Eli isn't the type of quarterback to give both Beckham and Cruz bug seasons). Another problem I have with Beckham is it's always easier to plan for receivers in their second year because of the game tape on them.

25. Alshon Jeffery - WR - Chicago Bears
26. Emmanuel Sanders - WR - Denver Broncos
27. Julius Thomas - TE - FA (I don't expect him to return to Denver)
28. Randall Cobb - WR - FA (I'm leaning towards him staying with Green Bay)
29. Lamar Miller - RB - Miami Dolphins
30. Peyton Manning - QB - Denver Broncos
31. Andre Ellington - RB - Arizona Cardinals
32. Mike Evans - WR - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
33. Drew Brees - QB - New Orleans Saints
34. Jeremy Maclin - WR - FA (I expect him to stay with Philly)
35. Mark Ingram - RB - FA (I don't expect him to stay in New Orleans)
36. Tom Brady - QB - New England Patriots

Julius Thomas should be good wherever he lands, unless its somewhere absolutely disgusting (Sorry Alex and Mr. Hochberg). But he's the last of the sure thing tight ends in fantasy. I have the top tight ends ranked in their own categories. Gronk, when healthy, is just so much better than anyone else. Jimmy Graham is better than everyone else in the league by far, except for Gronkowski. Julius Thomas is third behind the rest but is still more of a sure thing than someone like Olsen (high floor, but low ceiling) and Kelce (He could be placed up in the top tiers if he gets some of those Fasano touchdowns this year). Watch out for a Peyton Manning tight end to be decent if Thomas does leave.

37. Carlos Hyde - RB - San Francisco 49ers
38. Kelvin Benjamin - WR - Carolina Panthers
39. Alfred Morris - RB - Washington Redskins
40. Joique Bell - RB - Detroit Lions
41. Brandon Marshall - WR - Chicago Bears
42. DeSean Jackson - WR - Washington Redskins
43. Sammy Watkins - WR - Buffalo Bills
44. Justin Forsett - RB - Baltimore Ravens
45. DeAndre Hopkins - WR - Houston Texans
46. Torrey Smith - WR - Baltimore Ravens
47. Jonathan Stewart - RB - Carolina Panthers
48. Golden Tate - WR - Detroit Lions

Carlos Hyde is so hard to rank because I have no idea who will be starting in San Francisco next year. I think it should be him however and this is where he ranks as the starter while losing some carries to whoever the backup is.

49. Roddy White - WR - Atlanta Falcons
50. Matt Ryan - QB - Atlanta Falcons
51. Isaiah Crowell - RB - Cleveland Browns
52. Victor Cruz - WR - New York Giants
53. Julian Edelman - WR - New England Patriots
54. Brandon Cooks - WR - New Orleans Saints
55. Latavius Murray - RB - Oakland Raiders
56. Andre Williams - RB - New York Giants
57. Tre Mason - RB - St. Louis Rams
58. Greg Olsen - TE - Carolina Panthers
59. Keenan Allen - WR - San Diego Chargers
60. Tony Romo - QB - Dallas Cowboys

TONY ROMO! I'm really high on Romo having another great season, as long as Murray and Dez are both there next year. That offensive line is just too good and as Dennis and I always say, your offense is only as good as your OL.

61. Doug Martin - RB - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
62. Russell Wilson - QB - Seattle Seahawks
63. Jerick McKinnon - RB - Minnesota Vikings
64. Denard Robinson - RB - Jacksonville Jaguars
65. Cam Newton - QB - Carolina Panthers
66. Devonta Freeman - RB - Atlanta Falcons
67. Travis Kelce - TE - Kansas City Chiefs
68. Vincent Jackson - WR - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
69. Gio Bernard - RB - Cincinnati Bengals
70. Charles Johnson - WR - Minnesota Vikings
71. CJ Spiller - RB - FA (I don't expect him back with Buffalo)
72. Jordan Matthews - WR - Philadelphia Eagles

73. Matt Stafford - QB - Detroit Lions
74. Martellus Bennett - TE - Chicago Bears
75. Fred Jackson/Bryce Brown - RB - Buffalo Bills

About the Author

Alex Sappe

Co-creator and co-editor-in-chief of Three By Five Sports Network

Co-host of the Third and Long Podcast

Co-host of the Footballistically Speaking Podcast

Follow me on Twitter @AlexSappe

2015 NFL Mock Draft version 0.5

noreply@blogger.com (Three By Five Sports Network) — Sun, 08 Feb 2015 23:42:00 +0000

If you need me, I'll be over here for the next few months

Tampa Bay - Jameis Winston, QB/Crab Leg Poacher
Google "jameis tampa" if you need a real explanation; less has been written about the Spanish Revolution than this pick. I expect Winston to successfully convince teams his past infractions amount to a maturity issue that he plans to leave in his past, whether it's true or not, and land the top spot this year.

Tennessee - Randy Gregory, DE/OLB
Zach Mettenberger put some good things on tape last season, and Ken Whisenhunt seems interested in the challenge of developing him. This would allow the Titans to pick up the top pass-rusher and pray for a Khalil Mack rerun in blue. Drafting Gregory would only be a drop in the bucket for the dour Titans, but it helps a bunch.

Jacksonville - Len Williams, DE/DT
Gregory would have offered a more useful pure pass-rush aspect to the young Jacksonville defense, especially in the wake of Sen'Derrick Marks' ACL tear. Getting the more versatile, interior-friendly Williams shouldn't lose anyone sleep, though. Recently compared to Michael Bennett, Williams' pocket-bursting ability will be essential to taking pressure off the still-raw secondary, and can help them compete against Andrew Luck.

Oakland - Amari Cooper, WR
David Carr must have cried into a pint of Phish Food after this season, seeing how his little brother showed him up in almost every way. Now, the Raiders can start generating a nucleus for their man to aid his development. While Cooper gets knocked for his slightly lacking speed, his size and ball skills have drawn more than one comparison to another notable Crimson Tide alum. Even as a Rod Streater apologist, I can't pass that up.

St. Louis (via Washington) - Marcus Mariota, QB
And boom goes the dynamite! With all the unrest in the Rams' organization concerning their potential relocation, and Sam Bradford starting to develop bedsores from all his time in the infirmary, the St. Louis front office must be awfully tempted to instill some pride and confidence in the team. Hence, the team poetically trades up with Washington to snipe the Duck at number five. Last year, the Rams' defense transcended to a full-force terror, and their offensive skill positions undoubtedly elevated Austin Davis' play. Bradford's journey has been riddled with awful luck, but his cost is an absolute back breaker. Plus, with the departure of Jim Harbaugh and numerous potential free agency losses elsewhere in the NFC West, a window has cracked ever so slightly open for the Rams to attack the top spot.

New York Jets - Shane Ray, DE/OLB
Incumbent GM Mike MacCagnan is staring down quite a reconstruction project in East Rutherford. The pass rush isn't exactly aging like wine, none of the cornerbacks on the roster should ever start multiple games, the quarterback depth chart is an abject mess, and three of their offensive linemen moonlight as subway turnstiles. Considered a talent guru and with cap money to spare, Mac can swing a few deals in free agency; hence, he and new coach Todd Bowles will likely enter April planning on a BPA approach. Ray is Sunday-ready with great burst off the line, and can give Calvin Pace a breather on the edge.

Chicago - Dante Fowler Jr., DE/OLB
Personally, I like Fowler more as a prospect than Ray; he shows more fluid hand usage, boasts a wider repertoire of rush moves, and seems to run with a higher motor. However, Fowler's consistency never reached a truly comfortable level in his career, which will inevitably push him below Ray. Thus, Fowler goes one spot after Ray, to the similarly defensive-challenged Bears. Though their safety corps is in shambles, at least there's bankable youth on the back-end; up front, Chicago is old, infirm, and otherwise riddled with busts. Depending on what transpires concerning Stephen Paea's contract, Ego Ferguson's development, and the health of Willie Young/Lamarr Houston, Chicago may also take a peek at Danny Shelton here.

Atlanta - Vic Beasley, DE/OLB
Atlanta feels the effects of the Mariota trade as well, losing out on more complete DE's Ray and Fowler. With their intense need for pocket pressure and Dan Quinn's defensive schemes, the Falcons are forced to reach a smidge for one of the next-tier OLBs. Vic Beasley strengthened his stock by returning to school last year, and brings a more fitting mix of game-readiness and ability that Quinn can coax instant production out of than my other possible choice of Bud Dupree. Beasley's first step is a flash, and can slot in to terrorize even mobile passers (which will be essential in the NFC South with Cam Newton and one of Mariota or Winston scrambling around). Atlanta's run defense was atrocious last year and this does little to help, as Beasley still needs work in the ground game, but Quinn should find ways to maximize his effect in a rotation early on. Stocking up on pass rush and interior defensive talent will be Atlanta's top priorities this offseason.

New York Giants - Landon Collins, S
The Giants have come out in support of their paste-eating franchise quarterback, who is coming off a bounce-back year in an effective new system. It's therefore expected the team will look towards getting him better protection. One of the top 3 offensive linemen is a popular mocked pick here, but the free agent pool is good enough that replacing Will Beatty should be easy. What won't be easy is piecing their safety corps back together; New York's top 3 safeties will be on the market this offseason, and Antrel Rolle particularly may be priced out of their budget. Collins is easily the best safety of the class, would immediately fill a huge need, and offers respectable value at 9th overall. As a little bonus, this blocks conference rival Washington from drafting him (their safety need trumps NYG's). The team could also target Gerod Holliman later on, though even I can see on tape that Holliman couldn't even tackle a varsity back.

Washington - Brandon Scherff, OG/T
Washington's secondary, outside of possible gem Bashaud Breeland, is in dire straits. DeAngelo Hall is coming off a debilitating knee injury, and none of their safeties would start in the CFL at this point. If the staff show confidence in Breeland's development, Hall may be moved to safety, which would put a flimsy bandaid on the secondary. That would free them up to patch an equally bereft squad, the offensive line. Tyler Polumbus is a bum and will be handed his papers soon, and neither guard was anything resembling decent. Leaky protection contributed to the awful quarterback play last year, as well as Bob Griffin's shellshock-fueled regression. Scherff is better suited as a guard than Andrus Peat or Ereck Flowers, which would help more in the NFC East, where interior pressure seems more common.

Minnesota - Ereck Flowers, OG/T
On the flip side, Flowers is a better pure tackle prospect than Scherff or Peat, but can still start at guard (another trouble spot) if Minny wants to give Matt Kalil another shot. The team has few glaring needs that don't return enough value at 11th overall; the inside linebacker class doesn't currently feature any top-20 picks to replace Chad Greenway, and protecting Teddy Bridgewater is more important than reaching for a receiver while Charles Johnson continues to show tons of promise. I also toyed with trading Minny down to nab T.J. Clemmings or Cedric Ogbuehi and a running back to compete with their current backfield, but Kalil has been terrible enough to warrant pushing for a replacement.

Cleveland - Danny Shelton, DT
As sad as it made me to watch, Cleveland's run defense put on some ghastly performances last year. Phil Taylor isn't panning out, and while Ishmaa'ily Kitchen touts an amazing name, he doesn't project as an upgrade. Shelton would anchor the defensive line and provide immediate aid to a squad that needs to be able to contain the likes of Le'Veon Bell and Jeremy Hill.

New Orleans - Bud Dupree, DE/OLB
An absolute no-brainer, especially after Junior Galette got himself arrested. Nobody on the Saints could tackle worth a damn last year. While their cornerback play was suspect as well, this year's cornerback class isn't worth the reach, and Keenan Lewis should get another chance to recapture his breakout form. Dupree tackles the hardest of anyone left, though he's a bit small and can be pushed around by big linemen.

Miami - Andrus Peat, OG/T
Another obvious choice, BullyGate ravaged Miami's interior line almost as bad as it did Johnathan Martin's tender feelings. Peat is a 'tweener with ideal NFL length and size, meaning he can start out on the interior and take over long-term for Branden Albert when the time comes. If the Fins looks towards filling this hole in free agency instead, a wide receiver is certainly in play here after Mike Wallace widened the schism between himself and the front office. However, in its cobbled-together state, the line must see a future-minded rebuild sooner rather than later.

San Francisco - DeVante Parker, WR
Michael Crabhands' locker is already half-packed by now, and outside of Bruce Ellington, the 49ers' wide receiver corps is old enough to have actually been part of the namesake gold rush. Frisco desperately needs a huge, fast splash player like Parker to keep the defense off Carlos Hyde's back and reel in Colin Kaepernick's sometimes-errant cannon shots.
Houston - Trae Waynes, CB
This pick was a very close match between Waynes and Jalen Collins, but Waynes' tighter coverage and better speed gave him the edge. Quite a few mocks like to send one of the top two running backs to Houston here as an understudy for Arian Foster, but free agency over the next two years threatens to dismantle the Houston secondary. Plus, there's a wealth of RB talent to be found in the next few rounds, and the current regime is (oddly) high on their pick of Alfred Blue. With Kareem Jackson going to market this year and 32-year-old Johnathan Joseph possibly leaving the next, a young corner like Waynes can slot in and learn from the vet before he takes over.

San Diego - T.J. Clemmings, OG
The Chargers' roster is a goddamn mess coming into the offseason, with aging veterans, expiring contracts, and generally poor play in a ton of spots. They finished near the bottom in pass-rush metrics and could certainly use an OLB/DE, but were able to mask such deficiencies with a combination of good secondary play and ball control. The offensive line kept Philip Rivers running for cover, even with King Dunlap and D.J. Fluker playing over their heads. Nick Hardwick's retirement was the tipping point that forced me to send them a lineman over one of the top two RBs or an OLB. Rivers' window is closing fast, and if he dies on the field due to a defensive end crashing down on him uncovered, it would be detrimental to his chances of getting a ring before the window closes.

Kansas City - Kevin White, WR
I somewhat foolishly chided the Chiefs for taking Dee Ford in the first round last year, not realizing they'd face the Herculean challenge of resigning Justin Houston this time around. Tamba Hali is rumored to be an inevitable victim of their dealings, but Ford softens the impact. Tragically, Eric Berry's career may have been cut short by a lymphoma diagnosis, which could force KC to reach for a replacement safety, but with White still on the board, I can't logically believe they'd go in any other direction here. Dwayne Bowe has been in decline for a few years now, and everyone else that started last year is at least 30. Albert Wilson hasn't shown enough to excuse the Chiefs from picking up the lanky, high-pointing catcher.

Cleveland (from Buffalo, 2014) - Jaelen Strong, WR
I honestly expect Strong to outperform his projected forty time at the Combine by a bit, which would solidify him as a top-three wideout. You know, one of those guys the Browns used to have. Cleveland's sizable cap space allows them to pursue a top free agent receiver, but hitting a need and BPA with one pick is too perfect to pass up. Besides, their money is much better spent elsewhere (DT, OLB/DE, TE).

Philadelphia - Marcus Peters, CB
Bradley Fletcher and Cary Williams. Enough said.

Cincinnati - Bernardrick McKinney, ILB
This may seem like an odd choice, glossing over Denzel Perryman for McKinney, but it makes sense. McKinney boasts more versatility and natural size than Perryman, which would allow the Bengals to move him around and fill in rotational spots on their defensive line as well as in the middle of the field. As a projected three-down 'backer that shows plus production in both run-sealing and pass coverage, McKinney fills the very flimsy shoes left by Rey Maualuga if he departs and can rotate sparingly opposite Carlos Dunlap.

Pittsburgh - Jalen Collins, CB
Reaching for Collins here hurts, but the corner play in Pittsburgh hurts way more. Cortez Allen showed little in the way of progress after landing an extension. Ike Taylor reserved a seat in the burn ward next to Bradley Fletcher and Brandon Carr (and that burnt-as-toast joke). Collins' length and fluidity should help him succeed, though he must curb the "grabbies."

Detroit - Arik Armstead, DT
The Ndamukong Suh lottery currently has some ticket-holders, and while Detroit is working on a contract, he won't sign for less than J.J. Watt money. Armstead brims with talent and ability, yet hasn't been able to put it all together yet. Assuming C.J. Mosley and Nick Fairley stay in Detroit and Caraun Reid takes a step forward, the team can afford to take a shot on Armstead's upside. Eddie Goldman is also very much in play at 23.

Arizona - Denzel Perryman, ILB
Perryman represents another match of need fulfillment and BPA here. Arizona needs a living, breathing linebacker who isn't currently on double-secret probation, and Perryman returns some value at 24.

Carolina - Cedric Ogbuehi, OT
Like Philip Rivers, Cam Newton spent a lot of 2014 running for his life. Ogbuehi's torn ACL torpedoed his stock, but Carolina needs to take a shot on his talent with the mammoth holes their offensive line is suffering. The state recently dismissed Greg Hardy's domestic abuse charges, which inflates his price to a point where Carolina cannot compete; hence, edge rusher becomes another possible fit here.

Baltimore - Sammie Coates, WR
With Marc Trestman in town and Torrey Smith out of his rookie contract, the Ravens should be doing their homework on the receiving class of 2015. While Coates has many detractors due to his low production and raw routes, he fits the mold of Trestman's other featured catchers as size-speed freak. Gifted one of the best route-runners in the league (Smitty) as a mentor if he were to go to Baltimore, Coates' upside may capture the heart of GM Ozzie Newsome. Kevin Johnson and maybe PJ Williams could also fit as CB help for the returning Lardarius Webb.

Dallas - Eli Harold, OLB/DE
I feel queasy about this sizable reach of a pick (and it should best illustrate how hard I'm trying to remain objective throughout this exercise.) Harold's like Kobe filet mignon cooked on a radiator: top-of-the-line quality but raw as they come. Dallas' needs on the edge are far too great, though, with only Demarcus Lawrence and part-timer Jeremy Mincey on the books as of right now. DC Rod Marinelli coaxed a remarkable year out his players last season, and has a better chance than most of developing Harold into a force off the edge. Of course, there are many other directions Dallas can go in at this pick, with the most obvious other choices being an OT or Eric Kendricks, but defensive line needs trump everything else.

Denver - Malcom Brown, DT
Terrance Knighton's free agency should prove lucrative for the breakout DT, but it leaves Denver in a bit of a spot. John Elway's recent dealings, a flurry of win-now signings, have pushed them against the cap and eliminated Knighton from their plans. Sly Williams showed signs of development but can't take on the job alone. Brown can crash the pocket and plug holes equally well for Denver in a rotation with Williams.

Indianapolis - Eric Kendricks, OLB
Offensive lineman is a pressing need for the Colts, but they're priced out of almost every decent one, and their pass-rush hurts for production as well. Bjoern Werner gave some hope early in the year, but faded badly down the stretch. Kendricks is sideline-to-sideline and boasts some crazy speed, similar to Ryan Shazier in a pass-rusher's body.

Green Bay - Kevin Johnson, CB
Kendricks is the almost-ubiquitous choice at 30th overall, among the dozens of mocks I peruse, at least. Yet in this universe, he's been sniped, leaving Ted Turner's cheeseheads in a crunch. Two of Green Bay's top corners will test free agency this year, and the team seems timid on giving Micah Hyde a bigger role. Hence, they can plug Johnson in on the perimeter to mitigate their corner needs and keep the championship window open.

Seattle - Dorial Green-Beckham, WR
DGB has mountains of talent, but seems to run into just as much trouble off the field. Beggars can't be choosers, though, and the Seahawks are shaking the change can for receiving talent. I portend their last-second loss in the Super Bowl was just as much Ricardo Lockette's fault as Darrel Bevell's; if he were anything close to a legitimate receiver, he wouldn't have gotten blown up by a rookie CB. With a very tight-knit locker room and strong coaching staff to provide guidance, Seattle can afford to take a shot on his upside.

New England - Phillip Dorsett, WR
It's almost poetic that two of the more wide-receiver-needy teams were our championship opponents this year. While the team historically doesn't draft wideouts in the first round, Julian Edelman is aging and picking up more injuries, and Brandon LaFell is...himself. Dorsett can flame anyone trying to catch him and runs some great routes, adding the speedy, yards-after-catch element New England sorely misses. Adding Dorsett would also mitigate shortfalls in the champs' backfield, a position that projects as a weakness pre-draft.

In hindsight, this mock has about as much value as the gunk in your eyes at dawn, and the lack of either Melvin Gordon or Todd Gurley seems like a major snub. As draft season picks up, I expect teams to over-analyze both of them like they did Teddy Bridgewater the year before, and ultimately get cold feet about spending a first-round pick on a running back. Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, and David Wilson all remain fresh in the league's often-limited memory.

...Also, I'm praying one of them (or Mike Davis, or David Cobb) falls to Dallas later on just in case, so there. Screw objectivity.

A Post-Super Bowl Look at Free Agency and Fantasy

noreply@blogger.com (Three By Five Sports Network) — Sun, 08 Feb 2015 04:03:00 +0000

Rumors of our death have been mildly exaggerated. To our readers and listeners, we apologize for such a long downtime; the cacophonous outside world tends to swallow our free time like a wormhole. Rest assured, we intend to make a concerted effort towards providing stellar content for y'all regularly once again, however long it may take to reenact. In the meantime, we sashay into yet another NFL offseason, rife with men that we fancifully stack on top of rosters like Lego blocks. Every team, even the champions, earn their yearly clean slate, and hypothetical potential is at its peak. Naturally, this leads to some whimsical speculation on my part; I figured I may as well spill a handful of my usual diatribes onto the page, which grew into the longform mass of pixels below. I do hope you enjoy a few of my cursory thoughts on the top free agents for this coming offseason, and the possible fantasy implications therein.

RISE FROM YOUR GRAVE!

Top Offensive Free Agents

(in no particular order)

Running Backs Offensive Linemen
1. DeMarco Murray 1. Bryan Bulaga
2. Ryan Mathews 2. Mike Iupati
3. Mark Ingram 3. Orlando Franklin
4. CJ Spiller 4. Michael Roos
5. Roy Helu 5. Doug Free/Jeremy Parnell
6. Stevan Ridley 6. Brian De La Puente

The offensive pool of free agents, as it currently stands, boasts some major landscape-shifting power in the fantasy world; though not the most spectacular group in history, the top available running backs in particular may sculpt the opening rounds of many a draft, with the reigning Offensive Player Of the Year DeMarco Murray leading the charge. You've certainly heard all there is to hear about he and the Cowboys' impressive season, so I'll reign in my gushing and outline the essentials. Until very recently, nearly everyone considered Murray a goner in Dallas, a victim of both Jerry Jones' ever-declining cap management and the perceived devaluation of runners in the modern league. As a result, Dallas remains a hotspot for any back that ends up wearing the star, and most potential suitors are expected to vault into at least the mid-second round of drafts should a match coalesce. Depending on who pays Murray the most, he should remain a high-round pick as well, and if he and the Cowboys can hash out a deal (which many beat writers have posited became far more likely as of this week), he may consistently fall off the board at number one. Everyone knows Murray's injury history rivals Dickensian literature in length, a contentious point that will dominate any decisions made about him in reality and fantasy alike. 2014 marked the young stud's first complete professional season, and playcaller Scott Linehan rode him like a steed into Hell (a mind-blowing 437 attempts by the end of their playoff run), exacerbating his risk of missing time in the future. The counterpoint, of course, is that Murray boasts a career 4.8 YPC, legitimately elite balance, a dangerous second gear, cushion hands, and terrific vision; his value to an offense cannot be understated. Multiple teams (Dallas, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Houston, even Denver as the year wore on) worked towards balancing their offenses this past season as well, returning previously-deteriorated reverence to Murray's and other backs' skills. He'll get what he's due.

While the list suffers a pretty substantial drop-off after Murray, Mathews, Ridley, and Ingram have proven themselves as successful feature backs, despite the baggage they tote along (injuries, fumbling). All three succeeded behind average-at-best lines, and should be sought after by a handful of teams. Indianapolis in particular should do their homework on these three before the draft, having all but ended the disastrous Trent Richardson saga, unlikely to resign the tragically-fragile Ahmad Bradshaw, and rostering only JAGs (just-a-guy) in Dan Herron and Vick Ballard behind them. Last year proved Andrew Luck and the talented young Colts receiving corps threaten all levels of the defense while absent a consistent run element, greatly boosting a feature back's fantasy floor (aforementioned JAG Herron squeezed out 10 standard points per game between week 12 and the end of the regular season.) Meanwhile, Spiller has been aimed by pundits towards New York, replacing CJ?K in a grand reunion with retread Jets offensive coordinator Chan Gailey (infamously the last coordinator to utilize him "correctly.") Looking at the 2012 Bills' RB splits and comparing it to the Jets' two-headed backfield inspires some confidence in Spiller's possible usage. The Christophers Johnson and Ivory combined for 61 targets last season, only 18th in the league overall; Spiller alone ate up 57 targets in 2012, with Fred Jackson taking on another 40 or so. With Ivory as the two-down thumper and the Jets certain to trot out either a green-horned rookie (some of the more fanciful mocks are sending either the Duck or the 'Nole to New York at pick number 6) or the inimitable Geno Smith under center next season, Spiller theoretically should get his fill of shallow targets.

The wild card of the bunch is Helu, who's compiled a career 4.7 YPC (with his lost sophomore year omitted) while languishing in Washington. Helu's size and speed are optimal for a feature back, his work in the pass game remains exceptional, and he's been able to stay healthy and play through small injuries admirably. Many sports writers believe his time has come, so to speak, and a team should hand him the reins of their backfield. While Helu has long intrigued me as well and I'm eager to see what he can do in an expanded role, one must consider all the variables that come with him. While aspiring couch-coaches like me love to deride coordinators as blind fools when they sit on "the talented one" in favor of other players (a la Matt Asiata versus Jerick McKinnon or Andre Caldwell versus Cody Latimer), personnel staffers know what they're doing most of the time; hence, we have to step back and question why Helu's usage remained so sparse, or why he was handily usurped by a sixth-round rookie in 2013. This has all the trappings of a metrics darling's hype potentially obliterating reasonable expectations as the offseason marches onward.

One essential caveat to the fated "shuffling of the bulls," though, is the coming draft's much-lauded running back class. With intriguing prospects stretching well into the third day, many teams will opt to take on a dirt-cheap rookie or let the free agent market cool down in response (or both). Even if a player would fit better or produce more on a certain team in need, as roster spots fill they will be forced to follow the money, for better or for worse.

...But you already knew that. Onwards to the rest of the skill players!

Top Offensive Free Agents, continued

Wide Receivers Tight Ends
1. Demariyus Thomas 1. Jordan Cameron
2. Dez Bryant 2. Julius Thomas
3. Jeremy Maclin 3. Niles Paul
4. Randall Cobb 4. Charles Clay
5. Torrey Smith 5. Jermaine Gresham
6. Michael Crabtree

At a glance, the wide receiver list appears rife with talent, but it's somewhat illusory; three of the top six listed above (Bryant, Maclin, and Smith) are locks to re-up with their respective organizations, while odds of the other three leaving for greener pastures range from "slim" to "coin flip" to "the locker's already half-empty." Whispers floating down the airstream claim that Eric Decker is trying to lull his friend and former teammate Thomas to the Jets, which is just adorable. Unless new GM Mike Maccagnan sets aside a massive chunk of their cap space for Thomas, cuts Percy Harvin loose, and finds the magic lamp from Aladdin, Denver will lock up their star for the long haul. However, on the off chance tempers change and Thomas packs his bags for the Big Apple, a major fantasy coup would precipitate. While he's obviously lost a lot of gunpowder from the old rifle arm, Peyton Manning is still giant-forehead-and-shoulders above whoever starts under center for Gang Green next season. Chan Gailey designs creative and exemplary game plans, but he would without a doubt focus on a ground attack, while Denver's new OC Gary Kubiak (as I've pointed out on multiple occasions) loves to feed his X-receiver. A relocation so momentous would result in an equally-significant PPG swing for Thomas in the coming years.

Cobb and Crabtree are the two top-end wideouts I expect to strike off into the great unknown, albeit for different reasons. Green Bay's slot man, Cobb had a career year en route to 91/1287/12; though his ability would be sorely missed, that stat line may have priced him out of Ted Thompson's plans. As season pass holder on the Jeff Janis Express, I have absolutely no problems with that. The Packers are nurturing a talented young nucleus in Janis, Jared Abbrederis, and potential slot replacement Davante Adams behind star Jordy Nelson, and could see fit to let Cobb walk if a team offers him Victor Cruz money. Plus, that A. A. Ron RodGers jabroni is decent enough to elevate the talent around him as the youngsters get acclimated. Cobb's value then hinges on his new surroundings, but with a reasonable expectation of 120 to 150 targets as a team's new top inside receiver, the numbers should follow. Crabtree, on the other hand, has burned through his draft pedigree with perennially subpar play, failing to fill the dynamic playmaker role San Francisco needed. Last year, Crabtree bottomed out, unable to top even 700 yards and mired in sluggish play. Some of the blame must go to his environment, from Colin Kaepernick's major regression as a passer to Jim Harbaugh not even bothering to phone it in as the weeks passed. Among the recent flurry of superhuman returns from ligament tears, though, Crabtree's post-ACL-surgery season was a bucket of cold water shocking us back to reality; his explosiveness had been sapped by the injury, and he may be staring down a future in possession roles only. This offseason, between who signs Crabtree and how he progresses in camp, will be key to judging whether he can approach fantasy relevance again. I hope he can bounce back, but I have my doubts. Expect him to settle on an oft-maligned "one-year-prove-it deal" with a spendthrift organization.

Tight end can simultaneously be the most exciting and most drab position on offense, due in part to the fact that there's only one Rob Gronkowski to crush cans of Pabst on his forehead in the endzone. The top available tight ends each fit a slightly different niche, from the versatile H-back Clay to the athletic splash-play Paul, but they all share a lot of black marks on their records. Cameron and Thomas, preseason favorites to challenge the top of the position, offered only disappointment sparsely pocked with outstanding performances. Almost anyone who toughed through Cleveland's last two seasons knows of Cameron's impressive athleticism and ball skills, but his concussion history is approaching Jahvid Best-levels of danger; every "next one" may be his last as an NFLer. Conversely, Orange Julius is a touch safer than Cameron and boasts even softer hands, but offers far less as an athlete and no run blocking whatsoever. He runs a moderate risk of injury as well, and will command the highest price of his peers due to the Manning effect. Paul, like his former teammate Helu, put together a flashy yet truncated resume in the Capitol this year. Of the top five listed, he has the highest potential return on investment for needy teams thanks to his bargain-bin price tag and aforementioned upside. Similarly, Clay should be a cheaper yet phenomenally useful chess piece for a creative playcaller to toy around with, but his value to fake footballers hangs on landing in just the right situation due to inevitably fickle usage. Gresham is sure to follow the money after landing the top overall pass-blocking rank amongst tight ends last season, and like Clay, will probably be more useful in real-life than fantasy. A more consequential effect of Gresham parting ways with the team is that, in his absence, Tyler Eifert assumes the full-time move tight end role in Cincy. While Andy Dalton's JAG badge has been stamped with an official expiration date of "never," Eifert's abilities make me drool, and he would ideally vault up the Bengals' top-heavy hierarchy to become the number two beneath A.J. Green's number one.

Top Defensive Line Free Agents

Edge Defenders (OLB/DE) Interior Linemen

1. Justin Houston 1. Ndamukong Suh

2. Jerry Hughes 2. Terrance Knighton

3. Pernell McPhee 3. CJ Mosley

4. Jason Pierre-Paul 4. Nick Fairley

5. Jabaal Sheard 5. Jared Odrick

6. Brian Orakpo 6. Stephen Paea

While the skill position players will inevitably lap up all the offseason headlines, the defensive free agent class of 2015 collectively boasts some of the best talent seen in the last decade. All eyes will primarily train lasers on Suh, whose legendary talent and long streak of questionable sportsmanship, along with Detroit's awful cap management (a fitting crisis for the city's representative franchise), have woven into a bombastic storyline. Recent rumors peg Oakland and Cincinnati as possible landing spots, with some also believing Suh might squeeze under Detroit's cap through strenuous economic wizardry. Beneath him, the totem pole crowds up near the top, with all of Knighton, Mosley, Odrick, and possibly Fairley able to instantly galvanize almost every defensive line; each one brings positive run-plugging and, more importantly, pocket-crashing ability. On the edge, a similar situation arises, with all the top rushers (aside from the primarily run-stopping Sheard) considered potential queens on the defensive chess board. As the mantra goes, a good defense is built front-to-back, and each of these players ensures a team can regularly win the trench battle. With the coming draft class poised to run deep on pass rush talent, pairing these players with high-upside and receptive draftees can realistically launch a defensive squad into the league's upper echelons. Of course, football does not exist in a vacuum; of the top twelve linemen, Hughes, Mosley, and Houston are strongly expected to stay put as foundations for their respective teams, and Odrick has a decent shot at remaining in South Beach due to Dion Jordan's struggles.

Historically, an underrated judge of fantasy players' success stems from the quality of their defense. Often, analysts will prattle on about how poor defenses lead high scores by encouraging shootouts, but this usually only works in specifically-planned situations and can put an undue reliance on garbage time. Better defenses generally correlate with higher and more consistent offensive scoring, mainly because they help the offense to remain on-script and keep the overall game competitive. In a close game, coordinators need not diverge from the game plan much (if at all), and will strive to keep the offense balanced. The overall efficiency (in yards per attempt) of quarterbacks trailing versus leading changes by mere decimal points, but a trailing QB will average twice the pass attempts; by that logic, more attempts will increase the chance of amassing more yards and more interceptions simultaneously, having an overall negligible effect on their score. Pass catchers can absorb more targets in such situations at the expense of running back carries, but these often come as a result of desperation (the aforementioned garbage time) rather than an attempt to keep pace with an equally-high-motor offense. In addition, more teams are following a model the two Western conferences have toyed with, which is a return to ball-control to mask a poor defense. Outside of a small handful of running backs that carry the mail as offensive centerpieces (two of whom are listed as top free agents above), this lowers the overall production by both offenses. In general, a solid defense does just as much good for an offense as proper playcalling and skill positions, even for the purposes of fake football.

--Lucio Leone

Third and Long: Dolphin Vulgarity and the Week 10 Recap

noreply@blogger.com (Three By Five Sports Network) — Sun, 16 Nov 2014 17:05:00 +0000

After a whirlwind tenth week, we have a ton of stuff to talk about folks, so let's dive right into the next episode of Third and Long. Listen here or on iTunes!

Footballistically Speaking: The Rut, the Hut, and the Pre-Post-International Break Triumvirate

noreply@blogger.com (Three By Five Sports Network) — Sat, 08 Nov 2014 18:51:00 +0000

Another exciting few weeks of soccer are under our belts, and we run down the lot of 'em. Listen here or on iTunes!

NHL Stock Up/Stock Down: The First 8th of the Season!

noreply@blogger.com (Three By Five Sports Network) — Wed, 05 Nov 2014 04:11:00 +0000

Oh hi there.

So yeah, hockey everybody. This is the blog that goes with the podcast that we’ve yet to do yet this season. Jobs people. Jobs. Anyway, we’re just about 1/8 into the 2014-15 season so everything I’m about to write about could be irrelevant shortly. Here’s a short list of what’s good and not so good so far.

Stock Up: Pretty Ricky

While the Rangers might not be off to the greatest of starts, Rick Nash certainly is. Although slowing down a bit, he has 9 goals on the season and has willed the Rangers to the mediocre start they’ve had. After his sudden disappearance during the playoffs that would’ve had Robert Stack searching for answers, he’s come on strong and hopefully keeps it up.

Stock Up: Corey Perry (and the rest of the Anaheim Ducks)

11 Goals, leads the league, enough said really. We all know he’s good and damnit he’s killing it. The real story though…

ANDERSEN!!!

NO, NOT THAT ONE.

FREDERIK ANDERSEN:

Ah yes, that’s the one. After getting rid of both Hiller the Thriller and Viktor Fasth in the offseason, the big question for the Ducks coming in was would it be John Gibson or Frederik Andersen in goal. Andersen has answered the call. He’s posted a 7-1 record and currently leads the league with a .941 SV% & 1.60 GAA. With John GIbson going on IR, expect it to be the Andersen show in Anaheim for the time being.

Stock Up: Brooklyn

Pour one out for the Coliseum. I’ll miss that place. Battling the stupid LIE traffic just to take advantage of dirt cheap tickets to see some good hockey players. Seriously. Wanna see Nathan MacKinnon on 11/11? Have at it.

But seriously, it’s starting to come together. The core of John Taraves, Kyle “Didn’t make the USA roster chip on his shoulder” Okposo and now Brock Nelson have come together. A pair of trades that brought Nick Leddy over from Chicago and Johnny Boychuk in from Boston has worked wonders so far and let’s not forget the goaltender upgrade of Jaroslav Halak and Chad Johnson from Nabokov/Poulin dumpster fire combo. Some good depth play from Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolay Kulemin, Frans Nielsen and Josh Bailey and this trade is looking better than the 2012-13 team that almost upset the Penguins in the playoffs.

Stock Down: Turn Down for (No) Goals

I actually feel pretty bad for Roberto Luongo so far. He’s quietly (because he’s in Miami) putting up solid numbers (4-2-3, 2.11 GAA, .932 SV%) but the Panthers have just 15 goals in 10 games so far while your rookie defenseman Aaron Ekblad is doing all the work. Wasn’t expecting the team to be any good but come on, can it get worst?

Oh.

Why yes it can. The Buffalo Sabres have shockingly (not) scored just 16 goals in 13 games. I mean my god, just look for yourself at the awfulness.

You keep skating them into the ground though Ted Nolan.

Stock Up: Minnesota Wild

A fringe playoff team that almost up ended Chicago in the playoffs are playing like that belong now. Answer: Darcy Kuemper.

He’s playing out of his mind (besides that bananas Rangers comeback). He’s 6-2 with a 1.62 GAA, .930 SV% and 3 shutouts. As said by yours truly in the preview video, the Wild play as a team and have tons of chemistry that goes a long way in hockey. I hope they stay this good, they’re a fun bunch to watch.

Stock Way The F**K Up: Vancouver Canucks.

Sedins are back, Ryan Miller is good, etc, etc. We predicted them at #28 overall. Fine, we were wrong. OK!!!

The most hurt by this…..Torts. He really screwed that team I guess.

Thanks for reading…..get at me:

@ThatMikeKane

@FiveHolePodcast

@ThreebyFiveSN

Third and Long: The Midseason Fantasy Rundown

noreply@blogger.com (Three By Five Sports Network) — Tue, 04 Nov 2014 04:12:00 +0000

We've hit the midpoint, boys and girls, so we figured it's only appropriate to commemorate it with a special edition episode! Third and Long's hosts delve into the current fantasy football scoring leaders and give our input on trends, studs/duds, and potential big finishes. Listen here or on iTunes!

Third and Long: The JETS, the MIKE, and the Week 7 Recap

noreply@blogger.com (Three By Five Sports Network) — Sat, 25 Oct 2014 15:45:00 +0000

We're joined by guest host and New York Jets columnist Jordan Pensabene (@jpens4real21) in our recap of a particularly hectic week of football, attacking the Percy Harvin trade, team trends, and the playoff picture very vaguely taking shape. Listen here or on iTunes!

#struggleface

Barclays Premier League Week 9 Predictions

noreply@blogger.com (Three By Five Sports Network) — Sat, 25 Oct 2014 00:58:00 +0000

Now that I'm over my (non-Ebola) sickness, it's time for another week of Premier League predictions! My mediocre record of 9-9-2 is sure to improve after this week and maybe I'll actually get a win with my Bet of the Week pick.

UPDATE MON 7:15 PM EST

Week 9 Record: 7-3-0 (3 Exact Wins)
Bet of the Week Record: 0-1-0
Season Record: 16-12-2
Season Bet of the Week Record: 0-2-1

West Ham vs. Manchester City

Prediction: 1-3

Analysis: Despite West Ham sitting in 4th place in the table, despite West Ham being at home, despite West Ham's 3-1 over Burnley and 2-0 win over QPR, I just don't think they have a chance against Man City. Man City is too powerful of a team for anyone in the league to compete against them besides Chelsea (And even Chelsea only came away with a draw against them). So yes, I think Man City has no problem winning this game and I'm going with a 3-1 win and taking Man City -1.

Pick: Manchester City -1; -119

Final Outcome: 2-1. LOSS.

Sunderland vs. Arsenal

Prediction: 0-2

Analysis: Sunderland sucks. That's really all there is to say for this game. I don't care who you are because when you lose a game 8-0, you suck. Even QPR hasn't stooped to that level yet. Plus, not only is Sunderland coming off that 8-0 loss to Southampton, they get to play one of the better teams in the league. Arsenal to win 2-0 and I'm taking the money line here.

Pick: Arsenal ML; -130

Final Outcome: 0-2. EXACT WIN.

Southampton vs. Stoke City

Prediction: 2-1

Analysis: Southampton is still surprisingly one of the better teams in the Premier League this year. Like I just said for the Sunderland and Arsenal game, Southampton is coming off an 8-0 win over Sunderland, so I believe the momentum will give them the win here. Obviously not 8-0, especially when they're playing a team Stoke that never gives up too many goals. 2-1 win for Southampton and I'm taking the money line.

Pick: Southampton ML; -167

Final Outcome: 1-0. WIN.

West Brom vs. Crystal Palace

Prediction: 2-2

Analysis: Ew. Who wants to even watch this game...I know I won't be. I didn't pick a draw at all this week so here is my token draw game. 2-2 and I'll even take the draw for my pick.

Pick: Draw; +225

Final Outcome: 2-2. EXACT WIN.

Liverpool vs. Hull City

Prediction: 2-1

Analysis: This seems like a trap game for Liverpool. Although every time top team plays Hull it's a trap game according to the media and public. The difference is Liverpool isn't a top team and that was proven in last week's game against QPR. Liverpool won 3-2 on two own goals by QPR and a lot of ball watching by the back line. If you actually watched the game, you would've seen QPR dominate the first half and get incredibly unlucky all game. I really want to pick Hull to draw or even win, but with the game at Anfield, I have to take Liverpool. I'm going with a 2-1 win for the Reds, but there's absolutely no way Liverpool wins by more than 1, so I'm taking Hull +1, + 1 1/2.

Pick: Hull City +1, +1 1/2; -110

Final Outcome: 0-0. WIN.

Swansea City vs. Leicester City

Prediction: 2-1

Analysis: Swansea has definitely slowed down after their monstrous start to the season, losing to Stoke, Southampton, and Chelsea and coming away with draws against Newcastle and Sunderland, over their past five games. Things aren't looking very great for the Jacks but they're at home for this game and are playing a struggling Leicester team. Leicester also had a nice start to the season after being promoted but, just like I said in a past podcast (or somewhere, I just know I said it lol), they're falling back down to where they'll have to battle to stay in the league. Over the past three games, Leicester has lost to Newcastle and Crystal Palace, and came away with a 2-2 draw against a Burnley team who only scored one goal before that game. So this game is like the opening set for Second in Command (Hah, Lucio will appreciate the forever lasting 2IC references). I'm going with a 2-1 win for Swansea since they're still the better team and are playing at home. I'm also taking Swansea -1/2 for the game.

Pick: Swansea City -1/2; -114

Final Outcome: 2-0. WIN.

Burnley vs. Everton

Prediction: 0-2

Analysis: Burnley sucks too. If I had to re-pick my three teams to be relegated, I'm going with Burnley, Sunderland, and Leicester (QPR barely scrapes away in 17th place lol). Everton is FINALLY playing like the team they should be and the return of Ross Barkley is definitely helping them. Burnley has no chance to win this game in my opinion and I'm taking a 2-0 win for Everton. Everton -1/2 is really great value too at +107.

Pick: Everton -1/2, -1; +107

Final Outcome: 1-3. WIN.

Tottenham vs. Newcastle

Prediction: 1-0

Analysis: Newcastle got a much needed win against Leicester City and Alan Pardew has saved his job for now with the win and after the draw against Swansea the previous week. But will they beat Tottenham at White Hart Lane? Probably not, and no one should be expecting them to so Pardew will be okay after this game as well. Still, Tottenham hasn't been very good lately so it should stay close. Going with a 1-0 win for Spurs here and taking the Spurs money line as well.

Pick: Tottenham ML; -130

Final Outcome: 1-2. LOSS.

Bet of the Week: Chelsea ML; +145

Manchester United vs. Chelsea

Prediction: 1-4

Analysis: Does anyone really think Man U has a chance to win this game? I don't really understand where the oddsmakers stand with this game, so it easily becomes my Bet of the Week with the value here. Chelsea is too good and I don't care if this game is at Old Trafford, because there's absolutely no way that Man U back line will be able to stop Chelsea. 4-1 victory for Chelsea and I'm going with the Chelsea ML at +145 (Seriously, +145!?!?!!?!?).

Bet of the Week: Chelsea ML; +145

Final Outcome: 1-1. LOSS.

Queens Park Rangers vs. Aston Villa

Prediction: 2-0

Analysis: Oh, my beloved QPR. According to the media, the QPR and Liverpool game was apparently a great game for a neutral fan. Not so much for your favorite EPL author.... That game was torture for me because I couldn't even stay happy with any of the QPR positives for more than a minute. But despite the agonizing game that it was, I was very pleased with the Hoops performance. They finally have a competent left back with Suk-Young and players like Onuoha, Henry, and Zamora are playing very well. Heck, the team as a whole was great on Saturday. You can never complain about my boy Charlie, Zamora was amazing, Fer keeps getting better and hit the crossbar twice (UGH), Sandro was great, Henry is playing better than anyone expected, Isla is a nice addition, Caulker and Dunne are solid, and you can't complain at all about the subs of Traore, Phillips and Vargas (especially not Vargas with his two great goals). Yes the back line was ball watching at times, but that's what happens when they haven't been playing together all season (and those two own goals were very, very unlucky). It should get better as this squad should be sticking together now. QPR is sitting in last place with 4 points, but I'm still really optimistic about the rest of the season. Plus, when Barton and Mutch are ready to play, this is actually a really good squad. Only management can screw this up now in my opinion. The team should be happy about the Liverpool game and now they get to play one of the struggling teams in the league, Aston Villa. Villa has only scored 4 goals all season, so that should help the newly formed QPR back line. I'm going with a 2-0 win here for the Hoops so I can be happy all week. Also taking QPR pk, -1/2.

Pick: QPR pk, -1/2; -104

Final Outcome: 2-0. EXACT WIN.

"Everton is FINALLY playing like the team they should be"

Table Prediction After Week 9:

1) Chelsea - 25 points
2) Manchester City - 20 points
3) Southampton - 19 points
4) Liverpool - 16 points
5) Arsenal - 14 points
6) Swansea City - 14 points
7) Tottenham - 14 points
8) West Ham - 13 points
9) Everton - 12 points
10) Manchester United - 12 points
11) Stoke City - 11 points
12) Hull City - 10 points
13) West Brom - 10 points
14) Aston Villa - 10 points
15) Crystal Palace - 9 points
16) Leicester City - 9 points
17) Sunderland - 8 points
18) Newcastle - 7 points
19) QPR - 7 points
20) Burnley - 7 points

The writers of Three By Five Sports Network assume no responsibility for the losses of anyone who risks money on this analysis. This is for educational and reading purposes only.

About the Author

Alex Sappe

Co-creator and co-editor-in-chief of Three By Five Sports Network

Co-host of the Third and Long Podcast

Co-host of the Footballistically Speaking Podcast

Follow me on Twitter @AlexSappe

Week 7 Fantasy Report: Ghosts of Football Yet to Come

noreply@blogger.com (Three By Five Sports Network) — Tue, 21 Oct 2014 18:14:00 +0000

Relatively speaking, this week sputtered by with little to-do. A few games went down to the wire and some interesting upsets caused mild tremors, but nothing registered much more than a burp on the figurative Richter scale. What we did see, over all else, was the growing emergence of young players in their respective positions. As is customary during midseason, rookies began hitting their strides, teams loosened the ropes on their young projects, and we as fans began to notice a sense of evolution around the league. Hence, this week I'd like to focus primarily on some of the more impressive youngsters, of course touching upon their fantasy forecasts in both re-draft and a few dynasty tidbits. Hope you all enjoy this seventh installment of my fake football stock report.

Stock Up

Percy Harvin and Eric Decker -- wait, don't close the page! I know I said a few weeks ago that liquidating your Jets assets would bolster almost any roster, but hear me out. Harvin's surprise trade to the Jets helps out the entire offense in a way next-to-nobody saw coming, but it primarily boosts his and Decker's stocks. Harvin goes from a conservative, spread-the-wealth passing attack led by a potentially elite (ugh, that word) quarterback, to the prototypical West Coast offense and a rollercoaster QB. He immediately slides in as their most talented wideout, and adds a few layers to the offense that may command more defensive attention than was once thought. Rex Ryan also loves his gadget plays, and is certain to draw up a few more sweeps to Percy the Tank Engine after we bore witness to their potential effectiveness in the season opener. Geno Smith, meanwhile, gets another big intermediate weapon that can stretch the field as well, the kind he's historically performed best with (going back to his college days with Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey). All of this means less attention draped on Decker, leaving him more open on his traditionally lower-percentage routes; he also shouldn't lose many targets, since Harvin steps into Jeremy Kerley's usual slot role. While neither should perform much better than mid-WR2 levels, the trade has breathed some life into a wheezing zombie formerly shuffling around the Meadowlands.

Russell Wilson, as odd as it sounds, also benefits a bit from the Harvin trade. Most pundits made it clear that the Seahawks shopped Percy for weeks before he finally shipped off, due to his preexisting anger issues that poisoned the locker room. You can glean whatever narrative you like from the stories, but Wilson goes back to his old post-Golden Tate corps, with rookie Paul Richardson settling into the Harvin wrinkle. Wilson's subpar pass protection and better rapport with his existing pass-catchers bolster both his rushing and passing metrics; we saw this past weekend that when he's flushed out by the rush, Wilson threatens to attack open lanes while his eyes remain downfield, ensuring a good chance of him making something out of a broken play. As far as dual-threat QBs go, Rusty officially has the highest floor of them all thanks to his terrific vision and potent offense.

Kelvin Benjamin, as if it needs to be mentioned, has put together an OROY-caliber season thus far. Derided as merely a deep threat with shaky hands in the draft, Benji has forged an almost transient rapport with his QB and taken on the role of Carolina's WR1 with gusto. He's hit some bumps in the road, committing a few vile drops and raising a bit of a concussion-fearing red flag, but he's on pace to finish the season ahead of an 80/1000/10 line and has left every rookie not named Sammy or Branden in the dust. Benjamin's schedule only gets easier from here, meaning his impressive pace is not only sustainable, but improvable (more on the Panther's schedule below). As long as Benji's development stays on track, he should develop into a consistent WR2 with a monstrous ceiling for many, many seasons in the future.

Stock Down

C.J. Spiller broke his collarbone in Orchard Park this weekend, potentially the last injury he'll suffer in the stadium. We mentioned in this week's episode of Third and Long that trade rumors lurked in the shadows of Spiller's locker, but with his season-ending injury, those may be dead. Spiller will almost certainly leave Buffalo after this year, when his contract expires (Buffalo would never pick up his player option at its price), hoping to land one last deal as a feature back somewhere.

Terrance West performed surprisingly poorly against a porous Jaguars defense, but so did the entire Browns offense. However, his bad showing may be the most important one, as it may have spelled the end for him as a rotational back and heir to Ben Tate. West merits a stay on watch lists just in case, but between his mounting errors and Crowell consistently outperforming him, it may be over for the young back in fantasy world this season. It's a shame, as Cleveland's rest-of-season RB matchups look mighty tasty...

Cleveland RB strength of schedule; black lines bracket weeks 8 through 16

Buy Low

Julio Jones owners formerly saw anything less than a full-roster blowup offer for their star wideout/possible Greek deity as positively churlish. After enduring a handful of down weeks and absorbing the state of the Falcons' ridiculously thin offensive line, they may now be willing to listen to reason. Granted, primacy effect still ensures prying him away from sticky fingers will prove quite tricky, but Julio's ability is otherworldly and is still on pace for a top-three finish at the position. Selling some flash-in-the-pan roster bandages and planting a seed of fear by flaunting Atlanta's putrid game against Baltimore could net you this week's blockbuster target.

Ben Tate and Isaiah Crowell deserve some shots at buying as well. As shown above, Cleveland faces only one rush defense ranked above number fifteen (Buffalo) for the rest of the year, and draws the woeful Carolina Panthers for championship weekend. Tate and Crowell both have talent to spare, and have a fantastic offensive line making lanes in front of them in spite of the loss of stud center Alex Mack. While Tate ensures dividends in the short term, he will be more difficult to snag and of course carries one of the most foreboding injury specters over his head. Crowell is worth a stash if his owner is hovering around .500 or lower and needs to get some win-now production injected into their lineup. Either way, getting a piece of this backfield can vault almost any team into playoff contention.

Cam Newton has looked pretty solid in his last few starts, and is officially back to his average expected rushing yardage per week. The Panthers' less-than-stellar clash against Green Bay doused some of the flames his prior week's spectacle had ignited, but Cam's still looking more like his old self. Next weekend, they take on a hurting Seahawks team coming off two of their worst losses in the Rusty Wilson era and certainly looking for some metaphorical(? hopefully?) blood to shed. After that, Carolina has one of the friendliest air-game schedules in the league, partly due to their backloaded divisional schedule (as usual, the NFC South sports the lowest collective defensive rank in the league, somehow worse than the East). Either making a play for Newton now or gambling on another shoddy performance at the hands of the Hawks can lead to positive returns come playoff time for teams unsettled at QB or in search of the high-upside dart throws. Don't give up much for his services, though; QB, like most years, is deep and very streamable even into the end of the season.

Sell High

Denard Robinson, another one of my RB crushes, did some crushing of his own this weekend as he soared to over 100 yards and a score against the Browns. He showed decent power and vision, making the right lane decision more often than not and breaking a few arm tackles in the second level. After such a big performance, Shoelace won another week as the Jags' starter, this time against the more stout Miami front seven. Robinson's big week was a perfect storm of Jacksonville's defense picking on a subpar pass offense, allowing them to stick to the ground game as they nursed their huge lead. Behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league and facing a relatively difficult upcoming slate, Shoelace may never see lanes again.

Terrance Williams caught his sixth touchdown in seven games against the Giants off a broken play and vintage Romodini move, but it was his only catch of the day. Williams' draft-day value hung on the assumption that Dallas' talent-deficient defense would force them into shootouts, but nobody expected them to become a ground-based ball-control team. The end-zone catches have buoyed Williams, but he's still somewhat raw as a receiver (body catches all day every day) and is third or fourth on the target pecking order in a run-focused scheme. His production is completely unsustainable, and he should be sold for something more useful while owners can still tout his 15-touchdown pace.

Waiver Watch

Tre Mason has cobbled together his formerly-vapid form into some tangible ectoplasm and did some work with it, leading the Rams' backfield in snaps. He ran over an admittedly-overrated Seahawks rush defense missing its premier run stuffer in Bobby Wagner, but his game spoke far louder than any "hot take:" Mason has the chops to lead that backfield. Snatch him up and see how the situation shakes out, as Fischer/Schotty is still a terrifying duo to try and predict week-to-week (Fischer has already claimed he wants Zac Stacy to see 25 touches next week and still heaps praise on Benny Cunningham). I'll be over in the corner, caressing my dusty and tear-stained Stacy notebook.

Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon wait in the wings behind the now-ailing Buffalo starters, and while the loss of Spiller and Jackson stings hard, the Bills couldn't really ask for a better contingency plan. The duo mimics their predecessors quite strikingly at a glance, with Brown's talent and quicks spelled by Dixon's power. Upon closer inspection, though, Brown plays a fantastic pass game, runs with Juggernaut-like momentum, and most notably can do something Spiller couldn't: run well between the tackles. If he's cleaned up the ball security issues he flashed during his time in Philly, Brown may take off with the full starting job. Dixon, while an ace on special teams, is more of a plodder than he wants to believe, and doesn't catch passes the way Brown (or Fred Jackson for that matter) can; his restricted overall ability may limit him to short-yardage and goal-line work, if that. Like the Browns, Buffalo sports a great backfield and solid schedule ROS, and the team has shown it can potentially remain competitive late into the season, meaning they should stay balanced on offense. Brown, without a doubt, should be the number-one waiver target this week, and could Wally Pip the Bills' backfield for years to come.

Donte Moncrief is the deep-league/keeper/dynasty fish hook of the week. He played his biggest complement of snaps so far this year, and appears to have stepped over the washed-up looking Hakeem Nicks (out-snapping him 23 to 19). A handful of it came in garbage time, but Moncrief put his talent to work on the big stage. Now, Reggie Wayne looks to suffer a few weeks on the shelf, which should push the rookie into three-wide sets for a chunk of time. It's a great opportunity for an extended audition to become one of the best young QB's top targets in the future. In a best-case scenario, Moncrief takes Nicks' job and pushes Wayne for starting snaps by the year's end, producing up-and-down spot starter numbers for owners during those weeks.

Gavin Escobar added two spikes to his resume on Sunday, along with 65 yards receiving. However, he's in the same boat as T-Will, chained by a running scheme and stuck behind more trusted primary options. Selling high on Escobar in re-draft and shallow keeper leagues is the most prudent course of action for those who scoop him up, but dynasty players must take note of the young TE. He showed some legitimate seam-stretching speed and open field twitchiness. Jason Witten is still the man in Dallas, but he's getting on in years and it absolutely has shown over the past two seasons. As Escobar's role grows and his pass protection develops more, he should grab hold of the torch from Witten in the coming seasons and step into the new-school TE mold set by players like Jordan Cameron, Travis Kelce, and Tyler Eifert. If he is somehow available in your dyno league, he's a must-add.

--Lucio Leone