• 05/11/2026 – (1) Michael Burry Stock Tracker on X: “Breaking: OpenAI fired Leopold Aschenbrenner at 22. Three years later, he manages $5.5 billion His next 13F files this Friday and the new trades will be posted here Leopold is quickly becoming one of the best AI investors out there And it started when he got fired from OpenAI https://t.co/rdt4YWUoE6” / X

• 05/08/2026 – Why CEO Bill McDermott says ServiceNow’s 39% stock crash is Saaspocalypse nonsense and why AI will make it a trillion-dollar company

ServiceNow-FAD-2026.pdf

“I explained very clearly to our company that when this thing breaks loose, it will break loose, and we’ll be a trillion dollar company,” he said. “It’s just a question of which day it breaks loose, it’s not a question of whether it will.”

• 05/05/2026 – NVIDIA and ServiceNow Partner on New Autonomous AI Agents for Enterprises | NVIDIA Blog
• 05/01/2026 – (1) Software Stocks Surge as Semiconductors Dip in Market Shift / X
• 04/29/2026 – Concluding my analysis on ServiceNow | Stansberry Research
• 04/28/2026 – Why ServiceNow can survive the ‘SaaSpocalypse’; OpenAI is in big trouble; Cybercrime is a leading industry in Cambodia | Stansberry Research
• 04/27/2026 – What to do when you’ve lost a lot of money on a stock; ServiceNow through my ‘first look’ lens; I just took back the family record in the half marathon | Stansberry Research

• 05/08/2026 – situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf
• 05/08/2026 – (1) Lin on X: “Nvidia’s Key Suppliers IP: $ARM Fab: $TSM $INTC Memory: $MU $SNDK $WDC Packaging: $ASX $AMKR $CAMT Equipment: $KLAC $LRCX $ASML $KEYS Networking: $COHR $GLW $FN $LITE $APH Servers OEMs: $DELL $SMCI $JBL Power Systems: $FLEX $ETN $VRT Power Electronics: $STM $ADI $MPWR $NVTS $ON https://t.co/9bJNCk5huR” / X

(1) Lin on X: “Nvidia literally told where to invest: IP: $ARM Fab: $TSM $INTC Memory: $MU $SNDK $WDC Packaging: $ASX $AMKR $CAMT Equipment: $KLAC $LRCX $ASML $KEYS Networking: $COHR $GLW $FN $LITE $APH Servers OEMs: $DELL $SMCI $JBL Power Systems: $FLEX $VRT $ETN Power Electronics: $STM $ADI https://t.co/ndMl7tt7sy” / X

IP: $ARM

Fab: $TSM $INTC

Memory: $MU $SNDK $WDC

Packaging: $ASX, $AMKR, $CAMT

Equipment: $KLAC $LRCX $ASML$KEYS

Networking: $COHR $GLW $FN $LITE $APH

Servers OEMs: $DELL $SMCI $JBL

Power Systems: $FLEX $VRT $ETN

Power Electronics: $STM, $ADI, $MPWR, $NVTS, $ON

Direct Investments: $CRWV, $NBIS, $NOK, $SNPS, $LITE, $GLW

• 07/18/2024 – ‘Godmother of A.I.’ Fei-Fei Li Has Created a $1B Startup in Less Than 4 Months (msn.com)

In January, A.I. pioneer Fei-Fei Li began a two-year leave from her position at Stanford University and updated her LinkedIn to describe her current work as “something new.” That new venture has been revealed to be a startup called World Labs that has already achieved a $1 billion valuation merely four months after launching, as reported by the Financial Times.

Through her new company, Li is now working on creating spatial intelligence—a concept she delved into during an April TED Talk. “If we want to advance A.I. beyond its current capabilities, we want more than A.I. that can see and talk. We want A.I. that can do,” said Li during the talk. To illustrate the concept of spatial intelligence, she pointed to an image of a cat pushing over a glass. “In the last split second, your brain looked at the geometry of this glass, its place in 3D space, its relationship with the table, the cat and everything else, and you can predict what’s going to happen next,” she explained. “The urge to act is innate to all beings with spatial intelligence, which links perception with action.”

• 07/08/2024 – Why Nvidia, Tesla, Amazon And More Are Betting Big On AI-Powered Humanoid Robots (youtube.com) – great content on bots, worth viewing

• 07/05/2024 – Elon Musk on X: “Wise words from @AriEmanuel” / X

Endeavor CEO Avi Emanuel says Sam Altman is a conman and that Elon Musk gave him a lot of money to create a non-profit only for OpenAI to be turned into a for-profit company and we should not trust them to take sufficient caution with creating powerful AI

• 07/02/2024 – GPT-5 will be a ‘significant leap forward’ says Sam Altman — here’s why (msn.com)

OpenAI has become somewhat of the poster child for AI advancements in recent years, opening ChatGPT up, offering more content for free and landing a big Apple partnership for iOS 18 to make it the LLM on everyone’s mind.

And, while the company still works to bring additional features from its ChatGPT-4o demo to fruition, its CEO already has his eyes on what’s next.

Sam Altman has been speaking at the Aspen Ideas Festival (via Decoder) about ChatGPT-5.

While Altman wasn’t keen to go into details on the next evolution of its LLM, Altman says it’ll offer a “significant leap forward”.

“I expect it to be a significant leap forward. A lot of the things that GPT-4 gets wrong, you know, can’t do much in the way of reasoning, sometimes just sort of totally goes off the rails and makes a dumb mistake, like even a six-year-old would never make,” he added.

Sam Altman’s mixed feelings about GPT-4

Back in May, Altman told a Stanford University lecture that “GPT-4 is the dumbest model any of you will ever have to use”, even going so far as to call the flagship LLM “mildly embarrassing at best”.

“It’s important to ship early and often and we believe in iterative deployment. If we go build AGI in a basement and then the world is kind of blissfully walking blindfolded along, I don’t think that makes us very good neighbours,” he said at the time.

That was followed by the very impressive GPT-4o reveal which showed the model solving written equations and offering emotional, conversational responses. The demo was so impressive, in fact, that Google’s DeepMind got Project Astra to react to it.

• 06/26/2024 – Prediction: 3 Unstoppable Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks Will Be Bigger Than Nvidia in 2030 (msn.com)

Developing those AI applications wouldn’t be possible without the data center graphics processing units (GPUs) designed by Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA). They contributed to an astronomical 427% increase in Nvidia’s data center revenue in the recent quarter, pushing sales to a record $22.6 billion.

That growth is the reason Nvidia’s valuation recently topped $3.2 trillion, making it one of the largest companies in the world.

Nvidia stock could also achieve a cheaper P/E ratio by falling. Whichever scenario plays out, here’s why I think AI titans Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG)(NASDAQ: GOOGL) will be worth more than the chip giant by 2030.

• 06/26/2024 – (1) Tesla Yoda on X: “Jensen: Training a 1.8 trillion-parameter GPT model took about three to five months with 25,000 NVIDIA Ampere architecture GPUs. With Hopper, it would take about 8,000 GPUs and consume 15 megawatts over about three months. For Blackwell, in the same 90 days, it would need a” / X

Jensen: Training a 1.8 trillion-parameter GPT model took about three to five months with 25,000 NVIDIA Ampere architecture GPUs. With Hopper, it would take about 8,000 GPUs and consume 15 megawatts over about three months. For Blackwell, in the same 90 days, it would need a quarter of the GPUs and a quarter of the power of prior models for the same task—only about 4 megawatts.

• 06/12/2024 – Oracle stock pops 10% on AI demand, new deals with Google and OpenAI (msn.com)

1. Oracle shares popped on Wednesday, a day after the software company announced its fourth-quarter results that showcased a strong RPO backlog.
2. The company reported $98 billion of RPO, the revenue it expects to receive from contracts in future quarters.
3. CEO Safra Catz said the backlog is primarily driven by demand to use Oracle’s cloud to train AI models.

• 06/08/2024 – Nvidia’s CEO Isn’t the Only Executive Selling the Chip Maker’s Stock (msn.com)

Executives from the company have recently taken advantage of these gains. As previously reported by Barron’s, Nvidia said in a late May regulatory filing that Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang adopted the Rule 10b5-1 trading plan on March 14 to sell up to 600,000 shares through March 31, 2025.

He wasn’t alone. The filing also mentions three other executives at Nvidia who recently sold shares of the company. Debora Shoquist, Nvidia’s executive vice president of operations, on March 4 also adopted the 10b5-1 trading plan to sell up to 41,140 shares of Nvidia through June 2, 2025.

She was followed on March 22 by Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress, who adopted the same rule for the sale of up to 50,000 shares of common stock through May 15, 2025, the document shows.

Lastly, the filing says Nvidia’s executive vice president of worldwide field operations, Ajay Puri, adopted rule 10b5-1 for the sale of up to 100,832 shares of Nvidia’s common stock through July 11, 2025.

• 06/06/2024 – Nvidia ARM laptops may be in the works, and that could change everything (msn.com) It’s too early to speculate what Nvidia has in store for us, but by the looks of it, 2025 is already looking like an interesting year for laptops.

Imagine a laptop with an iteration of Nvidia’s ARM-based CPU combined with a powerful RTX graphics card, all enhanced by AI. Years ago, that would have sounded outlandish, but now it seems like it could actually happen.

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and Dell CEO Michael Dell more or less confirmed that Team Green will enter the AI-PC hype next year.

This could turn out to be a huge opportunity for Nvidia. Not only can the company help solidify Windows on ARM as a platform alongside the recently announced Copilot+ PCs but it might have what it takes to go beyond the boundaries and create a more holistic ecosystem that combines AI and gaming. Having firm control over the CPU could potentially unlock new levels of gaming experiences not only limited to laptops but also consoles and desktops.

It’s too early to speculate what Nvidia has in store for us, but by the looks of it, 2025 is already looking like an interesting year for laptops.

• 06/06/2024 – OpenAI CEO Sam Altman suggests GPT-5 may work like a ‘virtual brain’ with deeper thinking capabilities, demystifying it from the “mildly embarrassing at best GPT-4” (msn.com)
• 06/05/2024 – Tim Cook is about to reveal Apple’s plan to dominate the internet for another decade (msn.com)

1. A 2005 deal between Apple and Google changed the way Americans use the internet.
2. Apple may soon reveal a new arrangement that could do the same for the AI era.
3. Tim Cook is expected to announce a partnership with OpenAI at WWDC to bring ChatGPT to iPhones.

On Monday, when CEO Tim Cook kicks off Apple’s Worldwide Developer Conference, he’s expected to unveil a new vision of artificial intelligence by announcing a partnership with OpenAI.

Bloomberg reported Wednesday that Apple is all but set to announce that the ChatGPT maker’s technology will be integrated into the iPhone operating system.

• 06/03/2024 – AMD Unveils Latest AI Chips, Accelerated Chip Update Timeline – WSJ
  

  AMD has been making inroads in AI chips amid a shortage of Nvidia chips and a growing appetite for alternatives

• 06/02/2024 – AMD Announces Future AI Chips, Will Speed Rollout of New Models (msn.com)
• 06/02/2024 – Nvidia Goes All-In on AI Large and Small, Led by RTX AI Laptops (msn.com)

Nvidia, the company behind GeForce GPUs and high-end AI processing hardware, pushed to combine those two worlds at Computex 2024. The chipmaker revealed new ways that GeForce graphics hardware can bring faster, better AI tools to gamers and professionals alike. Nvidia’s plans start with leveraging the AI capabilities of its GeForce RTX GPUs (mobile and desktop) to enable a host of new automated, intelligent features.

• 06/01/2024 – He Turned 55. Then He Started the World’s Most Important Company. – WSJ Morris Chang had decades of experience before he founded a business that’s indispensable to the global economy. What can other middle-aged entrepreneurs learn from him?
• 06/01/2024 – Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest missed out on more than $1 billion in returns by selling Nvidia stock too early (msn.com)

1. Cathie Wood’s decision to sell more than 1 million shares of Nvidia came as the stock rocketed to astronomical highs.
2. Ark Invest has missed out on more than $1 billion in returns by selling Nvidia stock too early.
3. Ark Invest sold 859,000 Nvidia shares in the fourth quarter of 2022, when the stock was trading below $150 per share.

• 05/30/2024 – AI in Education: Transforming Learning and Teaching (msn.com)
• 05/29/2024 – Bullish Nvidia Trade Soars as Day Traders Bet on Leveraged ETFs (msn.com)

A GraniteShares fund, which gives investors two times the daily return of the Jensen Huang-run company, is now up 450% over the past year, with a record $4.7 billion in trading volume last week. The $2.8 billion GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF (ticker NVDL) launched in December 2022.

GraniteShares has filed for at least 25 ETFs that track the performance of other single-stock ETFs that have daily 2x and 3x leveraged strategies.

“What we are providing is institutionally priced leverage to the masses — that’s the big breakthrough,” he added. “With leverage comes risk and these products are not without risk.”

• 05/29/2024 – Cooling for AI Is a Hot Stock Market Trade—for Now – WSJ Companies like Vertiv that can help artificial-intelligence data centers dissipate heat have had gains of more than 600%

The explosive growth in AI has generated soaring energy demand in data centers, and lots of unwanted heat. That has cooked up opportunities for companies providing cooling systems for servers.

• 05/29/2024 – Dell Should Keep Shining in Nvidia’s Halo – WSJ Booming demand for AI servers is boosting storied tech giant as PC industry recovers

Investors’ enthusiastic reception sets a seemingly high bar for Dell ahead of its next earnings report, set for Thursday afternoon. Dell’s server revenue beat Wall Street’s projections by 16% for the fiscal quarter that ended in July 2023, giving the stock a 21% lift the following day. In March, Dell reported that its AI server backlog nearly doubled during its fiscal fourth quarter. That sent the stock up 32% the following day.

A new class of machines with on-device AI is also hitting the market this year, creating the potential for further uplift. Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi rates Dell’s shares as a buy, even while admitting to worries about the sustainability of the AI server business.

“That said, we see several other levers (storage, traditional servers, and AI PCs), which can be meaningfully accretive to EPS in FY25,” Sacconaghi wrote in a note last week.

That is doable, especially given the strong demand Nvidia said last week that it expects to see for its new class of chips launching later this year. Dell’s main constraint might be getting its hands on enough of those chips given the tight supply seen across the industry.

But Ng noted that Dell’s server customers “appear to have priority in GPU supply.” Dell also has a tight relationship with Nvidia, with Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang joining Michael Dell onstage at Dell’s annual developer conference last week and singling him out from the audience during the keynote of his own big show in March.

“Nobody is better at building end-to-end systems of a very large scale for the enterprise than Dell,” Huang said at that event.

None of Dell’s competitors in the IT equipment space got such a shout-out. But turning those words into actual sales will be vital considering the premium Dell is now fetching to more traditional rivals such as Cisco and Hewlett Packard Enterprise. It has some big numbers to serve up.

• 05/27/2024 – Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang talks blowout quarter, AI, inferencing, ongoing demand, and more (youtube.com)
• 05/25/2024 – Khan Academy CEO on how AI will change education | Watch (msn.com)
• 05/27/2024 – AI Is Driving ‘the Next Industrial Revolution.’ Wall Street Is Cashing In. – WSJ Old-school stocks in the utilities, energy and materials sectors are outpacing the wider market

Demand for artificial intelligence is still booming, a year after the phenomenon first took Wall Street by storm. Far beyond the tech sector, investors are finding winners in old-school pick-and-shovel stocks.

Deep-pocketed companies are investing heavily in AI technology, which has meant a windfall for chip makers such as Nvidia NVDA 2.57%increase; green up pointing triangle and a host of businesses—such as suppliers of power, labor and raw materials—to operate their products.

• 05/08/2026 – The AI reality distortion field has engulfed more than the Mag-7. Intel stock recently surpassed the all-time high set during the dot-com bubble in 2000. This isn’t because the company has overcome its strategic problems; it is floundering against Nvidia in graphical processing units, which drive AI, and against Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. in making chips for outside customers. Rather, the central processing units in which Intel specializes are in big demand by data centers. A similar halo effect has lifted the entire chip sector, including Advanced Micro Devices, Micron Technology and Sandisk.

AI Is Distorting Practically Everything About the Economy – WSJ

• 04/22/2026 – Kevin Warsh Pitched a Case for Fed Interest-Rate Cuts. His Future Colleagues Are Skeptical. – WSJ

the upcoming Fed Chair probably will lower the rate

• 03/13/2026 – Israeli Officials Think Iran’s Regime Isn’t Likely to Fall Soon – WSJ the war on Iran might last a bit longer – Despite constant military pressure, security services have a strong grip on the streets, and protesters are afraid
• 02/01/2026 – How Fed Pick Warsh Survived Trump’s Ultimate Reality Show – WSJ

Wall Street Can’t Decide Whether Kevin Warsh Will Be a Friend or Foe – WSJ

Exclusive | Trump Jokes About Suing Warsh if He Doesn’t Lower Interest Rates – WSJ

Who Is Kevin Warsh, Trump’s Fed Chair Pick? – WSJ

Kevin Warsh Is the Right Choice for the Fed – WSJ

• 01/31/2026 – “The Dollar is Collapsing”……Is It? – ValuePlays

“Davidson” submits:

With panic in streets at some parts of the country, with massive fraud being committed and overlooked perhaps protected by politicians and global relationships in flux there are many forecast that the US$ is no longer the reserve currency it has been for many years. By my analysis this is all self-interested fluff designed to game politicly and personally.

A 40yr+ history of the DXY Index shows the US$ is not collapsing as these actors claim. There have been many factors for US$ strength in the past. It has been a haven during stressful times as during COVID and it has been the place for opportunity as during the lead-up to the Internet Bubble.  Recently Trump settled multiple long-term local conflicts and the shift back to these areas for restorations opportunities is also part of the DXY Index pattern. DXY is designated by the Dashed Black Line(—) in this chart. It should be clearly seen that DXY falls every time EEM and EFA rise which indicate capital flows are exiting the US$ for foreign markets.

Note that earlier versions of EEM showing 0.9% growth has been replaced by a MSCI reformatted EMM with less exposure to Chinese issues. This makes the long-term performance of the reformatted EMM look better at 2% but it does not change my long-term theme that the SP500 outperforms at 10% because of protections to free speech and personal property. This includes protections to intellectual property. The highly touted Chinese marketplace as a growth theme has been overstated for many years. Communist Dictatorships have never and will never be investment worthy.

In my opinion the US$ is acting as it always has. It fluctuates! There is no collapse as claimed and no one need be concerned.

• 01/29/206 – Durable Goods Shows Continued Expansion – ValuePlays

“Davidson” submits:

Taking out the volatile Aircraft orders, Durable Goods continues to reflect decent economic expansion. This is as expected and investors should maintain a positive equities outlook.

• 01/25/2026 – PMI Continues To Be Made Irrelevant By Reality – ValuePlays

Industrial Capacity continues to rise as does industrial Production, both revised higher. The standout is the PMI remaining below 50, now ~40mos mostly below 50, reflecting an intractable period of market pessimism. Even with the rises we have seen in selected industrial issues, I see a remarkable period still ahead of heady price movement once market pessimism converts to recognition of economic expansion.

• 01/25/2026 – Subs: Momentum vs Value – ValuePlays

You need to be a Value Investor at market lows but think like a Momentum Investor once a Bull Market moves to full swing. I use comparable market Pr/Sales levels as a guide to how far I may let any issue progress before suggesting cutting a position. Transdigm(TDG) hit 9x Pr/Sales a couple of years ago and appeared to have stalled. I suggested a full sale 2yrs+ ago.

Investing is always a balance of Momentum vs Value at any point in time. The art is to know your economic timeframes, know the limitations of management to produce financials, constantly keep track of what management says “they will do” vs what they in fact do, diversify and use your best judgement.

Thus far, all is good with at least 3yrs of economic expansion ahead of us. But, always be cognizant that market prices always reflect Momentum vs future value expectations and we need to be alert at all times.

• 01/20/2026 – ‘Big Short’ legend Michael Burry says AI bubble is doomed and Buffett proves it
• 01/13/2026 – Subs: Tariffs Explained

Subs: Tariffs Explained – ValuePlays

Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026 – YouTube

• 01/06/2026 – ‘The Big Short’ investor who predicted 2008 crisis reveals how Venezuela raid can shape markets

The seizure was a “shot across China’s bow,” Burry wrote, pointing to the loans worth billions of dollars China has made to Venezuela under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The money was collateralized using future oil output, which is “now in U.S. hands,” Burry noted. The veteran investor wrote that Chinese stocks now strike him as “somewhat riskier. He listed Alibaba, Baidu, and other potential sanction targets “could be in for some volatility” if Beijing tries to escalate aggression in the South China Sea or Taiwan.

Burry also took note of the impact on Russia and its oil as well. “Putin’s jaw has to be on the floor,” he wrote after seeing what the U.S. did in “practically seconds” that Russia has been trying to do in Ukraine for years. Burry estimated that while it may take five to seven years, if the U.S. manages to increase oil output from Venezuela, it would undercut Russia’s income and influence. “Russia’s oil just became less important in the intermediate and long-term,” he wrote.

• 12/31/2025 – Industrial Production and Manufacturing Capacity Revised Higher – ValuePlays

Industrial Production revised higher as was Manufacturing Capacity. The Dallas Fed continues to roll out revised economic series some with long-term revisions others ranging from a few months to several years. Even so, the economic picture remains one of expansion in the face of continued “Doubting-Thomases”. The opposite messages of Industrial Production(INDPRO) vs PMI continue with the former very positive and the latter devoid of hope.  Capacity and Capacity Utilization are very positive with Utilization showing signs of an upturn in line with what is visible in Durable Goods.

• 11/24/2025 – watch out the warnings from Burry

(1) Cassandra Unchained on X: “Feb 21, 2000: SF Chronicle says I’m short Amazon Greenspan 2005: “bubble in home prices ..does not appear likely.” Powell ’25: “AI companies actually..are profitable..it’s a different thing” I doubted if I ever should come back. I’m back. Please join me. Cassandra Unchained on” / X

Cassandra Unchained | Michael Burry | Substack

• 11/18/2025 – Davidson’s comment on macro

Construction Spending Rises – ValuePlays

“Davidson” submits:

Total Construction Spending turns higher in August as St Louis Fed releases begin to come out once again. The pop came from Public spend and Residential with Power related holding steady and Manufact

uring down a little from its record highs but not weak.

All continues to look good from an economic perspective.

• 11/13/2025 – watch out the move from Burry

‘Big Short’ investor Michael Burry deregisters his hedge fund, saying he’s moving on to ‘much better things’

1. Management’s SEC registration.
2. Burry posted on X that he’s “on to much better things” after betting against Nvidia and Palantir.
3. The contrarian investor foreshadowed the decision, writing the “only winning move is not to play.”

(1) Cassandra Unchained on X: “So, I bought 50,000 of these things for $1.84. Each of those things is 100 doodads. So I spent $9,200,000, Not $912,000,000. @CNBC @WSJ @FT Each of those doodads let me sell $PLTR at $50 in 2027. That was done last month. On to much better things Nov 25th. https://t.co/9Voy3nwiTD” / X

Michael Burry of “The Big Short” fame has terminated Scion Asset

So, I bought 50,000 of these things for $1.84. Each of those things is 100 doodads. So I spent $9,200,000, Not $912,000,000.

Each of those doodads let me sell $PLTR at $50 in 2027. That was done last month. On to much better things Nov 25th.

• 11/10/2025 – My latest thoughts on artificial intelligence (part 1) | Stansberry Research  – Tilson’s viewpoint on AI and economy

Some of the largest companies in the world are betting on this. Alphabet, Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta Platforms (META) are investing massive sums in AI. Take a look at these Bloomberg charts shared on social platform X, which show the explosion in their capital expenditure (“capex”) spending:

At first glance, such spending appears to be wildly excessive. But keep in mind that these four companies – and the U.S. tech sector overall – generate gobs of free cash flow (“FCF”).

Across the sector, capex as a percentage of FCF is much lower than it was at the peak of the Internet bubble a quarter century ago:

The level of spending as a percentage of GDP is also modest relative to other tech build-out booms:

Another reason the current boom is different from the telecom one in the late 1990s is that the infrastructure today – mainly consisting of Nvidia (NVDA) chips – is “fully utilized,” as market strategist Shay Boloor explains:

Here’s my friend and former colleague Enrique Abeyta’s response to this:

So will businesses pay up for AI, warranting the massive amounts – trending toward trillions of dollars in the coming years – being spent on it?

The answer will largely depend on the extent to which AI can replace humans. In other words, if businesses can use AI to reduce headcount – or grow without having to increase headcount – then they will pay a lot of money for AI.

• 11/04/2025 – ‘Big Short’ trader makes $1bn bet against AI boom

A US investor depicted in the film The Big Short has placed a significant bet against artificial intelligence (AI).

Michael Burry, who bet on a US housing market crash in the run-up to the 2007 crisis, has wagered $1.1bn (£840m) on falls in shares of chip-maker Nvidia and software company Palantir.

On Monday, he posted a chart titled “US tech capex [capital expenditure] growth is matching the tech bubble of 1999-2000” and another showing how growth in demand for cloud computing at major tech companies is slowing.

Mr Burry’s investment firm Scion Asset Management has bought “put” contracts covering $912m of shares in software company Palantir and $187m of shares in chip-maker Nvidia, according to analysis of the fund’s portfolio update by investment research platform Quiver Quantitative.

(1) Quiver Quantitative on X: “BREAKING: Michael Burry just filed a portfolio update. He entered massive options positions betting against Nvidia and Palantir. He bought call options betting on Halliburton and Pfizer. Full portfolio up on Quiver. https://t.co/gImnU9dYYL” / X

• 10/17/2025 – Davidson on current thoughts of macro

Subs: Current Thoughts – ValuePlays

The only thing I’d add to this is “crypto risk”. If you watch each of the last selloffs, Bitcoin get hits the first and the hardest.  This is because it has 24/7/365 liquidity and in times of panic, is the first thing sold.  Shorts sellers also know this and add to the drama.

A largest panic and selloff in crypto that lasts could easily bleed into stocks given the vast number of crypto holders out there now.

The US economy is in the early stages of a massive uplift due to the current government tariff policy. Capital is being returned into the US economy for manufacturing and basic industries i.e., steel, aluminum, energy and etc. This leads to building the necessary infrastructure and employment funded by those foreign businesses with a desire to sell their goods with their specific innovation in the US. Tariffs used this way are forcing every manufacturer to fall into merit-based production rather than rely on local tariff protection. This is a revolutionary process that forces individual innovation into the forefront of every addition to every country’s GDP.

For the US this process is likely to take at least 5yrs, likely longer, to garner the productive capacity that we have shifted overseas in past many decades. It is a rebalancing of individual country unique talents to use the tariff system in this fashion. Eventually tariffs will fall back to very low levels once trade balance is achieved based on merit-based compensation rather than selective government subsidy. Meanwhile, the US will regain the GDP associated with its own intellectual innovation that had been shipped overseas and lost to other nations basically for low labor and environmental costs.

Some of our suggested issues have already responded with significant price appreciation reflecting surprise revenue and profit growth. Some selling to rebalance the portfolios for issues yet to respond has been recommended. Yet, some with decent gains today, have such upside potential, i.e., Astronics(ATRO) , Cooper-Standard(CPS) and etc. that they make sense to continue to hold in the face of compelling price potential. ATRO and CPS each have decent potential to rise well over $100shr.

The eventual market top is very likely to be cut short by consumer delinquencies exceeding past thresholds signaling instability in consumer debt. Currently this is in my estimation at least 4yrts+ ahead.

Meanwhile very significant gains are yet ahead as retail sales rise to record levels.

• 10/16/2025 – Consumer and Small Business Credit Holding – ValuePlays

“Davidson” submits:

The primary lead up to recessions has been consumer delinquencies rising to identifiable thresholds. The next Fed report is not till late Nov 2025. Meanwhile, the market in general has focused on the debt level and not the consumer’s ability to handle this debt. Delinquencies at all levels have been near historically comfortable levels for consumer. This report by JPMorgan confirms that over-leveraged consumers are not a threat to the economy. That is: No Recession In Sight!

Resilient consumers and small businesses lead to improved charge-off outlook, JPMorgan CFO says

Oct. 14, 2025 9:41 AM ETJPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) StockBy: Liz Kiesche, SA News Editor

“Consumer and small businesses remain resilient,” JPMorganChase (NYSE:JPM) Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum said on the company’s Q3 earnings call.

Due to that resilience, the bank lowered its 2025 outlook for card charge-offs to ~3.3% from its prior guidance of ~3.6% as delinquency rates are coming in lower than the bank expected.

• 10/10/2025 – Trump Threatens Higher Tariffs on China Citing Restrictions on Rare-Earth Elements – WSJ President signals other possible economic countermeasures, adding there is no reason to meet with Xi at APEC summit

Stock Market Today: Trump Threatens ‘Massive’ China Tariffs; Dow Falls — Live Updates

• 10/08/2025 – Tilson’s viewpoint on the stock market

A huge difference between the dot-com bubble and today; I don’t expect the government shutdown to derail the markets; Paul Tudor Jones predicts a ‘blow off’ top; Follow-up on Interactive Brokers; 60 Minutes segment on ‘Guy Fieri and 24,000 missing tequila bottles’ | Stansberry Research

Below is a new one – courtesy of the latest Week in Charts blog post from Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello…

It shows that the dividend yield of the S&P 500 Index is close to the all-time low it reached in early 2000, at the peak of the dot-com bubble:

This looks ominous. But having lived (and run a hedge fund) through that period of total madness a quarter-century ago, I don’t think it’s the same today…

Yes, valuations are high… so investors should have modest expectations for stocks over the next five years

But there’s a huge difference: Earnings growth has supported the current run-up in the tech sector.

Take a look at the chart shared in this recent post on social platform X:

As the post notes regarding these charts:

Back in the late 1990s, the IT sector price shot up way faster than the earnings. Prices jumped almost 600%, while earnings only grew around 30%. That’s what people called the “irrational exuberance” period – prices disconnected completely from company fundamentals.

Now look at the current cycle on the right. Since the ChatGPT launch in late 2022, both the price and earnings curves have moved up together. Prices are up about 97%, but earnings have also climbed sharply, nearly 87%.

I’ve said it time and time again… If you own quality stocks or index/mutual funds, stay the course.

• 09/23/2025 – Powell speaks Tuesday to the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce 2025 Economic Outlook Luncheon

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks on interest rates and the economy — 9/23/2025 – YouTube

Powell Describes Rates as ‘Modestly Restrictive,’ Keeping Door Open to Cuts – WSJ Fed chair warns ‘there is no risk-free path’ after officials cut rates last week

1. Chair Jerome Powell stated the Fed’s interest-rate stance remains “modestly restrictive” after a recent rate cut.

2. Powell noted that tariff increases are likely to cause one-time price increases, but added “a ‘one-time’ increase does not mean ‘all at once’”—saying the effect will likely be spread over several quarters.

3. A narrow majority of Fed officials projected at least two additional rate cuts this year, implying moves in October and December.

Fed Chief Powell says stock prices appear ‘fairly highly valued’ Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday noted that asset prices, a category that typically includes stocks and other risk instruments, are at elevated levels. Though Powell noted the lofty equity values, he said this is “not a time of elevated financial stability risks.”

Watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell speak live on interest rates and the economy

In his post-meeting news conference, Powell characterized the reduction as “risk management” as officials become more concerned with weakness in the labor market than the threat from inflation. Meeting participants indicated a likelihood of two more cuts this year followed by additional reductions in the next two years.

• 09/18/2025 – Trump’s Team Explores Government-Backed Manufacturing Boost – WSJ Discussions center on how to use money from a $550 billion fund to spur construction of factories and other infrastructure
• 09/17/2025 – FOMC meeting

LIVE | US Fed FOMC meeting: Watch Jerome Powell announce the US Fed rate decision | Trump – YouTube

• 09/10/2025 – Employment Flat – ValuePlays

“Davidson” submits:

The Establishment Survey rose 22,000 and the Household Survey rose 288,000. As illegal alien deportations, self or government induced, are numbered between 1-2mil individuals, employment has stalled. This can be clearly visualized in the chart. Government employment is declining as policy changes shrink the total DC govt employment. The rise in native-born employment is reported as rising but is hidden by the decreasing non-native exits. This should prove a multi-year impact and make these series by themselves unreliable regarding historical measures of economic activity.

Instead, we must rely on Real Personal Income, Real Retail Sales, Capacity and Capacity Utilization, Construction Spending,  Durable Goods Orders, Industrial Production and Consumer Debt Delinquencies while keeping in mind that they must fit the consensus-narratives present in markets that represent the drivers of both economic activity and market psychology. Market prices always represent market psychology which in recent years has lagged economics.

Where the economics diverge from market prices lays market opportunities that are generally worth exploiting. At present the economics are decently positive while market psychology remains skewed to AI related issues.

Excerpt from the September report:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in August (+22,000) and has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.3 percent, also changed little in August. A job gain in health care was partially offset by losses in federal government and in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction.”

• 08/31/2025 – U.S. Stocks Are Now Pricier Than They Were in the Dot-Com Era – WSJ

The S&P 500 has never been this expensive, or more concentrated in fewer companies

• 08/31/2025 – (1) Joseph Tesla Long Term Investor on X: “It’s probably nothing. https://t.co/qDay7lQs8T” / X

The image shared by @ShrimpTeslaLong, featuring Donald Trump with a globe and the text “THE WORLD WILL SOON UNDERSTAND” and “NOTHING CAN STOP WHAT IS COMING,” aligns with a surge in cryptic political messaging, possibly tied to recent global tensions, as indicated by the Pentagon Pizza Index hitting DEFCON 1 on August 30, 2025, suggesting heightened military activity.

• 08/22/2025 – Fed Chair Powell Opens Path for Interest-Rate Cuts in Jackson Hole Speech – WSJ During his annual speech in Jackson Hole, Wyo., Fed Chair Jerome Powell discussed the potential for the central bank to cut interest rates.
• 08/22/2025 – be careful of the inflated market due to margin debt (2) StockMarket.News on X: “ Margin debt just hit a fresh all-time high: $1.022 trillion. The market is on fire, but so is the leverage behind it. This is one of the most dangerous signals in the markets right now. ( a thread) https://t.co/DKdONd8QKD” / X

StockMarket.News on X: “In inflation-adjusted terms, debt rose 1.3% MoM, pushing real leverage to its highest level since late 2021. We’re still slightly below the inflation-adjusted peak from October 2021, but the gap is closing fast and the setup is eerily familiar. https://t.co/crEicZBSAd” / X

• 08/11/2025 – Corporate America’s Stock Buyback Spree: A Sign of Strength or a Red Flag? – WSJ Buybacks are expected to top $1.1 trillion in 2025, led by big banks and tech firms

1. American companies are on pace to repurchase over $1.1 trillion of their shares in 2025, an all-time high.

2. Tech giants such as Apple and Alphabet, plus big banks such as JPMorgan Chase, are leading the buyback charge.

3. Strong earnings and tax cuts are helping companies repurchase shares, while trade confusion stalls investments.

   

Strong earnings growth and tax cuts have helped fill corporate coffers, while powering stocks out of their tariff-driven April rout and lifting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite to fresh records. At the same time, the confusion around trade has stalled many businesses’ investment plans, making buybacks a more appealing use of incoming cash.

“Things are better than everyone makes them seem,” said Jeffrey Yale Rubin, president of Birinyi Associates. “Companies are flush with cash. They were in healthy shape even before the better earnings.”

• 08/08/2025 – (1) Barchart on X: “$7.4 Trillion is now sitting in Money Market Funds, a new a all-time high https://t.co/yUTyVadeWv” / X

• 08/08/2025 – Exclusive | Trump’s Team Expands Search for Fed Chair, Adding New Names to List – WSJ The president’s advisers are reviewing new contenders, including former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Marc Sumerlin, a former George W. Bush adviser
• 08/03/2025 – what could go wrong

(2) amit on X: “TRUMP ISSUES NUCLEAR SUBMARINES TO POSITION NEAR RUSSIA “Just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements are more than just that.” https://t.co/Y85705nIYh” / X

• 08/02/2025 – it seems like Buffett is cautious on the current market

Berkshire’s Quarterly Earnings Drop on Insurance Results, Currency Moves – WSJ Warren Buffett’s conglomerate continued to stockpile cash and refrain from buybacks during market’s climb to record highs

• 08/01/2025 – Stock Market Today: Dow Falls 600 Points on Weak Jobs Report, New Trump Tariffs — Live Updates traders saw an 83% chance the Fed will cut rates at its next meeting in September

​A weak jobs report and President Trump’s revamped tariff plan weighed on markets Friday, with investors ramping up bets that the Federal Reserve will now be more inclined to cut rates to support the economy.

Futures pricing Friday afternoon suggested traders saw an 83% chance the Fed will cut rates at its next meeting, according to CME Group data, up from 38% on Thursday.

• 07/31/2025 – Jobs Report Shows Hiring Slowed in July, With 73,000 New Jobs; Unemployment Ticks Up to 4.2% – WSJ

1. U.S. job growth slowed to 73,000 in July, below expectations, signaling potential labor market weakness.

2. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%, while revisions showed 258,000 fewer jobs added in prior months.

3. Economists debate the economy’s direction amid tariffs, immigration changes, and shifting consumer behavior.

• 07/30/2025 – The Fed – July 30-31, 2024 FOMC Meeting

Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference — July 31, 2024

Fed Holds Rates Steady, but Two Officials Back a Cut – WSJ

Ahead of Wednesday’s decision, Trump said he thought the Fed would cut rates in September. Mr Trump had told reporters shortly before the Fed announcement that “I hear they’re going to do it in September.” However, Mr Powell said: “We have made no decisions about September. We don’t do that in advance.”

Powell deflected such speculation, leaving the Fed’s options wide open. He made no effort to tee up a September cut, even though he also wouldn’t rule it out. Expectations of a rate cut declined modestly on Wednesday. After the meeting, investors in interest-rate futures markets saw a roughly 45% chance of a September cut.

Powell and his colleagues are studying how tariffs filter through inflation data in the midst of anxiety that higher goods prices will keep inflation above the Fed’s 2% goal for a fifth year. Inflation has declined notably from 2021-23 highs without the recession many economists had predicted, but officials are cautious about declaring victory and possibly reigniting price pressures by cutting rates prematurely.

On the fiscal front, Trump signed a major tax cut package this month. Some Republican lawmakers are discussing consumer rebates that could add stimulus to an economy the central bank views as near full capacity—raising the odds Fed officials would regret cutting rates if the labor market remains steady.

The July meeting represented an initial fracturing of a Fed consensus to hold steady that emerged six months ago. The question that could further divide policymakers in the coming months is whether tariffs will damage the economy faster than they fuel inflation, and whether waiting for answers risks misjudging any course correction on either front.

The September decision could prove straightforward if the data breaks decisively in either direction. Sticky inflation readings alongside solid growth would make it easier to defer rate cuts, while clear economic deterioration would justify cutting. But if the current muddle persists, Powell faces more agonizing decisions.

• 07/29/2025 – Secretary Lutnick: Trade deals for ‘the world’ will be ‘done by Friday,’ but China will take longer | Watch – August 01 is the day for deal with the whole world, except China
• 07/27/2025 – Five Signs of a Market Bubble Investors Are Tracking – WSJ

• 04/16/2025 – Bessent on Trade Talks, Powell Future, Argentina, Dollar – YouTube – to look at whole picture tariff, tax and deregulation, do not only look at tariff

‘A UFC Battle Between China & US’ says Dan Ives

• 04/14/2025 – to be read The U.S. and China Are Going to Economic War—and Everyone Will Suffer – WSJ

Trump’s Trade Math Ignores a Major Export: American Services – WSJ

Nvidia to Produce Entirely U.S.-Made AI Supercomputers in Texas – WSJ

Humanoid Robots Are Lousy Co-Workers. China Wants to Be First to Change That. – WSJ

• 04/14/2025 – (1) Elon Musk on X: “I saw this coming tbh https://t.co/u9u6R8TjuF” / X

• 04/13/2025 – Trump Exempts Smartphones, Other Electronics From Chinese Tariffs – WSJ Announced in a filing late Friday, the move is a big reprieve for Apple and other tech companies

Smartphones, laptop computers, memory chips and other electronics will be exempt from President Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs, another step back that could ease some consumer concerns about an immediate jump in costs for tech products imported from China.

New guidance published late Friday by U.S. Customs and Border Protection also exempts machines used to create semiconductors, plus products including computer monitors, tablets, Apple watches and computers from the tariffs Trump imposed in his April 2 executive order, which mandated levies of 10% of the value of almost all U.S. imports, and set higher rates on imports from some countries. Trump later boosted the level of these reciprocal tariffs on China to 125%, and issued a 90-day pause on tariffs above 10% for other countries.

• 04/13/2025 – Dan Ives on X: “The next Street focus will be auto/auto parts tariffs and how this impacts Tesla and Detroit Big 3. I continue to believe the best case is finished cars vs including parts…will be big positive for auto sector if tariff changes. Once deals/exemptions start Street asks who’s next” / X

Dan Ives on X: “Finally the news US tech investors were dreaming of…chips/smartphones/computers exempt from tariffs. US Big Tech spoke and the White House made the right move at the right time. Massive relief for market and tech stocks into Sunday night https://t.co/t2aA21OJ7C” / X

• 04/12/2025 – Buffett’s thought on tarriff from May 2018

Bourbon Capital on X: “Warren Buffett: There are levels of trade deficit that bother me “when you are, in effect, buying more from other countries than they’re buying from you, you are handing them investment funds” “we don’t want it to be a question of where we import 20% of our GDP and we export https://t.co/mEVIgdfjHi” / X

Warren Buffett: There are levels of trade deficit that bother me “when you are, in effect, buying more from other countries than they’re buying from you, you are handing them investment funds” “we don’t want it to be a question of where we import 20% of our GDP and we export nothing. Now, we could all quit working, and we could handle little pieces of paper to the rest of the world. They could keep sending us food, they could send us autos, they could send us all kinds of things. But eventually, they have claims on all our wealth” Trust the process: short-term pain for long-term gain.

• 04/12/2025 – Wall Street’s Best Hope to End Trump’s Global Trade War Is One of Its Own – WSJ Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a former hedge-fund manager, is trying to execute one of highest-stakes gambles in modern political and economic history

Bessent gave a speech to the American Bankers Association telegraphing the Trump team’s new strategy. “We can probably reach a deal with our allies,” Bessent said. “And then we can approach China as a group.”

• 04/11/2025 – Ackman’s thought experiment

(1) Bill Ackman on X: “A thought experiment. Imagine if: Within the next 89 days, the US, Europe, and Japan agree to go zero/zero on tariffs and remove all trade barriers. Then Europe and Japan join the US in raising tariffs on China to 145%. Then the US, Europe and Japan as a united front” / X

A thought experiment. Imagine if: Within the next 89 days, the US, Europe, and Japan agree to go zero/zero on tariffs and remove all trade barriers. Then Europe and Japan join the US in raising tariffs on China to 145%. Then the US, Europe and Japan as a united front negotiate with China to remove tariffs and trade barriers, and put in place strong structural protections for IP.

• 04/11/2025 – I need to fully understand the bond market and Trump’s decision

The Simple Explanation for This Week’s Treasury Market Mayhem – WSJ

We shouldn’t rely on markets to tame Trump – by Nate Silver

The Simple Explanation for This Week’s Treasury Market Mayhem – WSJ

The Death of US-China Trade || Peter Zeihan

• 04/11/2025 – Grannis’s take on Tariffs Calafia Beach Pundit To repeat what I said months ago, tariffs don’t cause inflation. Only monetary policy causes inflation.

I agree with what Bill Ackman said yesterday. By waiting until panic set in before announcing a reprieve, Trump forced the world to see first-hand what the results of a global tariff war would lead to. And he also put tremendous pressure on China, the biggest bad actor of global trade, to change its ways. It was a master-stroke of persuasion. Until yesterday I had begun to fear that Trump was making a huge mistake. Now my fears have been assuaged. We’re not out of the tariff woods yet, but the prospects for a favorable resolution have improved dramatically. Maybe those tariffs Trump threatened weren’t so bad after all, if they help the world understand how bad they can be.

Now let me comment briefly on today’s CPI release, which was a pleasant surprise. The chart below says it all:

Chart #1 compares the year over year change in the CPI index with the same change in the CPI index ex-shelter. The ex-shelter version of the CPI has increased by 2.3% or less for the past 23 months (since May 2023), and it has averaged a mere 1.7% per year for almost two years. In the past year, ex-shelter inflation was only 1.5%. Only shelter costs have kept the broader CPI from long ago meeting the Fed’s objective, and their impact is continuing to fade away. To repeat what I said months ago, tariffs don’t cause inflation. Only monetary policy causes inflation. So far the Fed has been doing a pretty good job of neutralizing the monetary excesses of 2020 and 2021.

• 04/11/2025 – Tilson’s take on Tariff I’m waiting for my ‘spidey sense’ to start tingling; President Trump is more concerned about interest rates and the bond market than the stock market; Nate Silver on why relying on the markets to ‘tame Trump’ is a mistake; Nobody seems to care much about the March inflation report | Stansberry Research

Most stock investors aren’t aware of this…

But the bond markets are much larger than stock markets – and bond investors are less tolerant of volatility and losses. So major financial crises (like the global financial crisis) generally occur when bond markets rather than stock markets break down.

This risk – and the rise in interest rates – is likely why President Donald Trump announced his 90-day tariff pause on Wednesday. Barry Ritholtz of Ritholtz Wealth Management posted this summary on social platform X yesterday:

And a thread on X from The Kobeissi Letter has more details. As it begins:

And as it continues:

Finally, as the thread concluded:

I will continue to follow interest rates and the bond market more closely than usual – and share it with my readers – because I think it will tell us what Trump is likely to do.

3) Meanwhile, statistician Nate Silver does a good job of analyzing why investors are still very much on edge in yesterday’s post in his Silver Bulletin blog: We shouldn’t rely on markets to tame Trump.

As Silver says, it comes down to investors trying to account for multiple degrees of uncertainty all at the same time:

1. The immediate effect of tariffs;

2. Second-order effects on consumer, business, and investor confidence;

3. Potential spillovers into broader financial markets – particularly the bond market, which had apparently spooked Trump, and

4. What the tariffs imply about Trump’s future actions and the United States’ overall state capacity.

As he puts it:

Investors are relying on a lot of implicit assumptions about an economic world order led by a relatively rational superpower – the United States – that may no longer hold.

And as Silver continues:

True, you’d rather have seen Trump capitulate [on Wednesday] than not. One remarkable feature of markets is that they provide a scoreboard – real-time feedback that even notoriously stubborn Silicon Valley types tend to take seriously. But considering those four buckets above, how secure should investors be feeling? Even with the 90-day pause, consumers and businesses will still be spooked by this and will experience higher prices from the tariffs that remain in place. The long-term effects on the United States’ cultural and financial hegemony are harder to quantify but potentially significant.

Markets and elites “got through” to Trump this time, but what if he wakes up on the wrong side of the bed 90 days from now and isn’t in such a generous mood? Not that I think headline writers should be catering to Trump’s mood swings, but triumphant headlines from Democrats about how Trump “surrendered” might give him second thoughts about doing the same thing next time around if he’s worried about looking like a loser.

In summary, fasten your seat belt… prepare for more volatility… and don’t obsess over the chaotic short-term news flow. Keep your eyes on the horizon.

4) Lost amid all the volatility in the stock market was the March inflation report the government released yesterday…

It showed lower-than-expected price gains, which normally would have made for bigger news. In fact, a month-over-month decline happened for the first time in nearly five years. Meanwhile, year-over-year inflation cooled to 2.4%.

But nobody really cares because of fears that tariffs will spike inflation going forward. Here’s the Wall Street Journal with more on this point: Inflation Eased in March, but Tariffs Threaten to Stoke Price Pressures. Excerpt:

Normally, a slowdown in year-over-year price increases would be welcome news for consumers, who have faced years of high inflation, and the Federal Reserve, which has been struggling to bring down price pressures. But this time, it will be hard for investors, policymakers and businesses to read too much into the March data.

President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement of sweeping new tariffs didn’t happen until April 2, which means their direct effects won’t show up until the next consumer-price report a month from now.

The article also cited this point from U.S. Bank Chief Economist Beth Ann Bovino: “It’s good news for the Fed, but the data seems stale.”

While the recent inflation numbers are indeed “stale,” the fact that both overall and core inflation are now below 3% gives the Fed more flexibility to cut rates to offset or at least mitigate a tariff-induced recession.

As a former hedge-fund-manager friend of mine – who posts anonymously on X under the handle BeenThereDoneThat Capital – posted yesterday:

On the plus side, my friend is right that the Fed now has room to cut rates to stimulate the economy if needed. (Investors are now expecting four rate cuts this year, up from one just a couple of months ago.)

But there’s a risk that if tariffs lead to higher inflation and an economic slowdown, the Fed’s cuts could fuel even greater inflation. This is yet another risk factor to monitor…

• 04/10/2025 – (1) Herbert Ong (@herbertong) / X(1) Herbert Ong on X: “ NEWS: The E.U. Will Put Tariff Retaliation on Hold for 90 Days to Match Trump’s Pause European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the commission, which handles trade for the bloc’s 27 member countries, “took note of the announcement by President Trump.” New https://t.co/5zg8FXQRUl” / X

The E.U. Will Put Tariff Retaliation on Hold for 90 Days | TIME

BRUSSELS — The European Union’s executive commission said Thursday it will put trade retaliation measures on hold for 90 days to match President Donald Trump’s pause on his sweeping new tariffs and leave room for a negotiated solution.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the commission, which handles trade for the bloc’s 27 member countries, “took note of the announcement by President Trump.”

New tariffs on 20.9 billion euros ($23 billion) of US goods will be put on hold for 90 days because “we want to give negotiations a chance,” she said in a statement.

• 04/10/2025 – The E.U. Will Put Tariff Retaliation on Hold for 90 Days | TIME

BRUSSELS — The European Union’s executive commission said Thursday it will put trade retaliation measures on hold for 90 days to match President Donald Trump’s pause on his sweeping new tariffs and leave room for a negotiated solution.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the commission, which handles trade for the bloc’s 27 member countries, “took note of the announcement by President Trump.”

New tariffs on 20.9 billion euros ($23 billion) of US goods will be put on hold for 90 days because “we want to give negotiations a chance,” she said in a statement.

• 04/09/2025 – Trump announces 90-day tariff pause for at least some countries

Stock Market Today: Dow and S&P 500 Surge; Trump Says 90-Day Pause on Some Tariffs, Raises China to 125% — Live Updates

1. President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on the full effect of his new tariffs for at least some countries.
2. Trump also said that he was raising the tariffs imposed on imports from China to 125% “effective immediately” due to the “lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets.”

President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced a 90-day pause on the full effect of his new tariffs for at least some countries.

Trump also said that he was raising the tariffs imposed on imports from China to 125% “effective immediately” due to the “lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets.”

Trump credited his decision to pause the full effect of tariffs on the fact that “more than 75 Countries” have contacted U.S. officials “to negotiate solution” to trade concerns that he raised in imposing the new duties.

• 04/09/2025 – ‘LOSER’: Scott Bessent just blasted this retaliatory tariff play by China

1. China is losing the trade war, should come to the table and talk with US
2. Tax cut and deregulation are coming by May and June
3. business leaders should feel certain by knowing tax cut and deregulation are coming

• 05/06/2026 – Memory Makers Are the Hottest Thing in Tech. Are They Making Too Much Money? – WSJ

• 05/01/2026 – (1) Genma_Jp on X: “Tesla’s Cybercab Playbook: Deliberate Caution Over Shortcuts” / X
• 04/23/2026 – Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha

Solid quarter, but bad presentation, lots of uncertainties in fsd and optimus

• 04/22/2026 – (21) SpaceX on X: “SpaceXAI and @cursor_ai are now working closely together to create the world’s best coding and knowledge work AI. The combination of Cursor’s leading product and distribution to expert software engineers with SpaceX’s million H100 equivalent Colossus training supercomputer will” / X

4 MIT Dropouts In Their 20s Are Billionaires Thanks To Cursor, Their AI Coding Tool

Founder Story: Michael Truell of Cursor AI | Frederick AI

• 04/21/2026 – Exclusive: Musk and insiders to retain voting control of SpaceX after IPO, filing shows | Reuters

1. SpaceX to use dual-class shares, limiting public investor influence
2. Starlink operating income surged, offsetting xAI’s widening losses
3. SpaceX ended 2025 with $24.8B cash, $92B assets, $50.8B liabilities

NEW YORK, April 20 (Reuters) – SpaceX plans to cement founder Elon Musk’s control after its IPO, granting ​him and a small group of insiders super-voting shares that will outweigh other investors, according to excerpts of the company’s IPO ‌filing reviewed by Reuters.

The prospectus, which was confidentially filed this month, provides fresh details of the company’s financials and corporate governance

Upon completion of the offering, Musk will stay on as chief executive officer, chief technical officer, and will serve as chairman of SpaceX’s nine-member board of directors.

Though Musk was paid $54,080 last year, according to the excerpts, he stands to gain ​billions in equity after the company’s stock market debut.

SpaceX is targeting a listing valuation of roughly $1.75 trillion with a $75 billion raise, which would ​make it the largest initial public offering in history. Musk bought $1.4 billion in the company’s stock last year and ⁠stands to get another 60 million in shares if SpaceX’s market value reaches $6.6 trillion and he is able to build data centers in space under ​a stock plan approved last month, the Information reported.

President and Chief Operating Officer Gwynne Shotwell received $85.8 million in total compensation last year, Reuters previously reported, while Chief ​Financial Officer Bret Johnsen was paid $9.8 million.

Exclusive: SpaceX to woo Wall Street with three-day analyst meet this week, sources say | Reuters

1. SpaceX hosts analyst days at Starbase and data center
2. Executives aim for late June IPO debut, targeting $1.75 trillion valuation
3. Musk plans 30% share allocation for retail investors, including international participation

• 04/19/2026 – (149) Tesla Stock to $550 NEAR TERM Because ……! Larry Goldberg – YouTube

Here’s a clear summary of the recent YouTube video “Tesla Stock to $550 NEAR TERM Because ……! Larry Goldberg” (published April 17, 2026, by Randy Kirk, featuring Tesla bull Larry Goldberg @TeslaLarry).

Main Thesis

Larry Goldberg argues that Tesla (TSLA) can reach ~$550 in the near term (roughly the next 60 days or so from mid-April 2026), driven primarily by one major upcoming catalyst: the anticipated SpaceX IPO and the potential synergies/merger implications between SpaceX and Tesla.

As of mid-April 2026, Tesla stock is trading in the $350–$400 range (recent closes around $390–$410), so $550 would represent a ~35–50% upside in a short timeframe.

The Key “Because” – The Big Catalyst

Goldberg highlights that while there are many Tesla catalysts (FSD/robotaxi progress, Optimus, energy growth, vehicle deliveries, etc.), the SpaceX IPO is the standout near-term driver:

1. SpaceX is expected to IPO soon (speculation around mid-2026 timeline in related discussions).
2. A successful SpaceX IPO would likely value it at $1.5T–$2T+, creating massive market attention and liquidity.
3. This would indirectly boost Tesla through perceived synergies (Starlink integration with autonomy/robotaxi, shared Elon Musk ecosystem, robotics/AI overlap, and overall “Elon premium”).
4. Goldberg frames a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger/acquisition scenario (or at least market pricing in such possibilities) as highly value-accretive for Tesla shareholders in the short run, with Tesla potentially trading up to $550–$600 in anticipation.

He notes Tesla doesn’t even need a major new company-specific catalyst to run hard — a rising broader market + the SpaceX event could push it back toward all-time highs (~$490+ pre-split adjusted) and beyond to $550+ quickly.

Supporting Points from Goldberg

1. Tesla is currently “coiled like a spring” and undervalued relative to its AI/robotics/autonomy potential.
2. Forward multiples remain attractive compared to the broader market.
3. Long-term optimism: He sees Tesla easily scaling much higher ($700–$900+ by end of 2026 or into 2027) if autonomy and robotics deliver, but the near-term pop is tied to the SpaceX momentum.
4. Historical context: Goldberg is a long-time Tesla believer who invested very early (around $3 pre-splits) and emphasizes patience + first-principles thinking.

Context and Caveats

1. This is bullish commentary from a well-known Tesla advocate (not neutral Wall Street research).
2. Other recent videos in the same circle (Randy Kirk, etc.) mention similar near-term targets like $500 by end of May or $600+ on positive autonomy news.
3. Risks mentioned implicitly: Market volatility, execution on Tesla’s side, regulatory hurdles for any merger ideas, and dilution concerns in merger models.
4. No guarantees — stock predictions like this are speculative.

The video is enthusiastic and focuses heavily on the SpaceX IPO as the “big one” that could ignite the next leg up for TSLA in the coming weeks/months.

If you want a deeper breakdown (e.g., specific timestamps, merger math details, or counterarguments from bears), let me know — or share what aspect interests you most (valuation, risks, etc.). Note that this is not financial advice; always do your own research.

Here’s a clear summary of Larry Goldberg‘s (aka TeslaLarry) main takes on SpaceX’s potential, based on his recent interviews (especially the April 17, 2026 Randy Kirk video), X posts, and other discussions in 2025–2026.

1. Near-Term Valuation & IPO (Mid-2026)

• SpaceX is heading for an IPO around June 2026 (his best guess: June 9 or late June).
• He views a $1.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion post-IPO valuation as realistic (sometimes mentions $1.625T with a typical 30% IPO premium uplift from a ~$1.25T private valuation post-xAI merger).
• He considers anything above $2 trillion as hype or “BS” (aligning with Elon Musk’s public dismissal of extreme rumors).
• This would make it one of the largest IPOs in history, potentially raising $50–75 billion in fresh capital.
• He expects strong demand, fast index inclusion (Nasdaq-100 / S&P 500), and massive passive buying inflows ($15–25B+ in the early weeks).

2. Business & Growth Drivers

• Current revenue run-rate (launch + Starlink) is already ~$25 billion.
• Starlink V3 satellites will drive significant expansion.
• Long-term upside includes space-based data centers (AI/datacenters in orbit), but he notes this may not meaningfully contribute to the bottom line for another 4–5 years.
• Everything ultimately depends on Starship success — full reusability and high flight cadence will unlock the real scale.
• He sees SpaceX becoming 10x bigger than NVIDIA in potential impact over time, with explosive growth in the new space economy.

3. Tesla–SpaceX Synergies & Merger Path

This is the biggest recurring theme in Larry’s commentary:

• A full merger (or major integration) between SpaceX and Tesla is highly likely and beneficial for both sets of shareholders.
• Timeline he often discusses: SpaceX IPO first (mid-2026) → possible stock-for-stock merger later in 2026 or by end of 2027.
• Reasons: Product groups are highly complementary (Starlink for robotaxi connectivity, shared AI/robotics, capital efficiency, faster innovation cycles). Separate companies slow things down with cross-boundary coordination.
• In a merger scenario, he has modeled examples where Tesla could trade up to $550–600 near-term purely on anticipation, with the combined entity potentially reaching $3.5T–$4.5T+ market cap initially (and far higher long-term).
• He argues the merger creates engineered abundance rather than just financial engineering — synergies could save billions annually and accelerate both companies dramatically.

4. Overall Long-Term Potential

• Extremely bullish: SpaceX (and a combined Musk ecosystem) has multi-trillion-dollar (even $10T–$100T in extreme bull cases discussed in interviews) potential due to the space economy, global connectivity, AI infrastructure, and beyond.
• He emphasizes thinking in terms of future execution potential, not current cash flows or traditional valuation metrics (e.g., comparing to early Facebook IPO multiples).
• For Tesla investors specifically: The SpaceX IPO itself is the biggest near-term catalyst that could drive TSLA sharply higher (his $550 target in the video is largely tied to this event).

Tone & Context

Larry is a long-time Elon enthusiast and investor in multiple Musk companies (including SpaceX via SPVs). His views are very optimistic and focus on first-principles convergence of the “Muskonomy” (Tesla + SpaceX + xAI, etc.). He stresses governance alignment, regulatory hurdles, and sequencing (IPO before full merger) as practical realities.

These are bullish opinions from a vocal Tesla/SpaceX advocate — not official forecasts or financial advice. Valuations and merger ideas remain speculative and depend on execution, regulation, and market conditions.

If you want me to pull specific quotes, dive deeper into the merger math he’s modeled, compare with bearish counter-views, or check his latest X posts for updates, just let me know!

• 04/17/2026 – (21) AleXandra Merz on X: “After further research and our discussions on the @cyberbulls with @TeslaLarry yesterday, I agree that this will very well be a Merger of Equals. BUT – in my opinion – it will not be at the then stock price, which is probably implying a lower market cap for Tesla than SpaceX. https://t.co/RiMtFC902L” / X

• 04/15/2026 – worth reading in more details

(21) AleXandra Merz on X: “SpaceX IPO & Tesla Deal: Massive Index Buying Ahead?” / X

(21) InvestAnswers on X: “@TeslaBoomerMama @valiryon @kellyglawson @gusiggins @XanderSky Your LEAP doesn’t disappear in a merger—it just adjusts: Same call/put Same expiry Same strike (or tweaked to match value) Only change: contract size. If 1 share → 0.7 new shares, your 100-share contract becomes 70. Or 1 share becomes 1.3 shares etc. Ticker just gets a small” / X

another great article

(21) Timbo on X: “SpaceX Index Inclusion: The Forced Buying Machine” / X

• 04/14/2026 – (21) Elon Musk on X: “Tesla V14.3 self-driving review. The point releases will bring polish. V15 will far exceed human levels of safety, even in completely unsupervised and complex situations.” / X

(21) Zack on X: “600 miles in with FSD v14.3 already and here are my thoughts: The improved reaction time is immediately noticeable and definitely quicker than a human could react. Yesterday a semi truck swerved fast into my lane and the car reacted insanely quickly to get me around them. Tesla https://t.co/2VeFgdGcy6” / X

(21) 谢嘉琪 on X: “我觉得FSD14.3的进步完全在被大部分市场低估。 特斯拉在同时训练不同参数大小的模型，就跟XAI同时训练7个Grok模型一样。只是14.3的强化学习进步太快，10倍参数模型跟不上。 14.3不是简单的增量优化，而是从底层基于MLIR框架彻底重构，充分释放硬件4性能。FSD14 Lite在硬件3的推出可能也依赖于此！ https://t.co/0rz9Cy4uck” / X

• 03/12/2026 – (10) Sawyer Merritt on X: “NEWS: Digital Optimus will start rolling out to AI4 (HW4) Tesla vehicles in ~6 months, and be deployed at select Superchargers.” / X

• 03/12/2026 – Tesla’s Grand Plan for the Future Is a Car With No Steering Wheel – WSJ

Musk’s vision for Tesla rests on the fully driverless Cybercab, but regulations could stand in the way

• 02/11/2026 – (2) Elon Musk on X: “xAI was reorganized a few days ago to improve speed of execution. As a company grows, especially as quickly as xAI, the structure must evolve just like any living organism. This unfortunately required parting ways with some people. We wish them well in future endeavors. We are” / X
• 02/09/2026 – (8) Elon Musk on X: “For those unaware, SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon, as we can potentially achieve that in less than 10 years, whereas Mars would take 20+ years. The mission of SpaceX remains the same: extend consciousness and life as we know it to” / X

(8) Joseph Tesla Long Term Investor on X: “@elonmusk I absolutely love this initiative. I’ve been saying one can’t overcome Mars until one overcomes the Moon first. It’s a necessary step. If anyone can achieve this milestone, it’s going to be SpaceX and Elon. Thank you for fighting to extend consciousness beyond Earth. ” / X

(8) 谢嘉琪 on X: “特斯拉如何参与马斯克月球城市计划？” / X

• 02/08/2026 – Notes on Space GPUs – by Dwarkesh Patel – Dwarkesh Podcast

(8) Dwarkesh Patel on X: “.@collision and I interviewed @elonmusk. 0:00:00 – Orbital data centers 0:36:46 – Grok and alignment 0:59:56 – xAI’s business plan 1:17:21 – Optimus and humanoid manufacturing 1:30:22 – Does China win by default? 1:44:16 – Lessons from running SpaceX 2:20:08 – DOGE 2:38:28 – https://t.co/543uQjv6ZT” / X

Elon Musk – “In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space” – YouTube

• 02/08/2026 – (8) AleXandra Merz on X: “Think twice before you sell your Tesla stock” / X

• SpaceX nearing major Starship milestones.

• xAI advancing Grok and massive AI compute needs.

• Tesla pushing FSD, Optimus, and energy solutions.

• 02/08/2026 – (8) Elon Musk on X: “@PeterDiamandis It’s not impossible” / X

Why Tesla might become an 100 Trillion Dollar Company:

• 02/08/2026 – (8) Peter H. Diamandis, MD on X: “Space GPUs, Humanoid Armies & Why China Wins Unless We Build Optimus” / X

A reflection on the 3-hour Cheeky Pint Podcast  with John Collison and Dwarkesh Patel

(8) The All-In Podcast on X: “Brad Gerstner: Elon Just Merged the Two Biggest Markets in the World @altcap: “You’re merging the two biggest TAMs in the world, right?” “All of artificial intelligence and all of space, together with the world’s greatest entrepreneur.” “(Elon) said, ‘I’m going to have https://t.co/92emepio2n” / X

• 02/08/2026 – (8) X Daily News on X: “ NEWS: SpaceX is hiring engineers in Austin and Seattle to develop AI satellites and space data centers. Solar, process, automation, manufacturing, mechanical, electrical, optics, software — build space data centers with @SpaceX @Starlink engineers. https://t.co/OACMfIMRYh” / X
• 02/04/2026 – Ashok Elluswamy: Building Foundational Models for Robotics at Tesla
• 02/04/2026 – (5) Elon Musk on X: “@imPenny2x Optimus will be the biggest product ever” / X
• 02/04/2026 – (5) Herbert Ong on X: “BREAKING: Elon Musk Announces SpaceX and xAI MERGER! https://t.co/9bPawu3X9Z” / X

(5) BREAKING: Elon Musk Announces SpaceX and xAI MERGER! / X

SpaceX – Updates

• 02/03/2026 – (5) Elon Musk on X: “To the stars! @SpaceX & @xAI are now one company” / X

(5) phil beisel on X: “Tesla and SpaceX are going to collide!” / X

(5) phil beisel on X: “The Magic of Optimus (part 1)” / X

• 02/03/2026  –(5) *Walter Bloomberg on X: “SPACEX–XAI MERGER COULD BE ANNOUNCED THIS WEEK SpaceX is in advanced talks to merge with xAI as Elon Musk moves to consolidate his companies, Bloomberg reported. Some investors have already been informed. An announcement could come as soon as this week, though talks could still” / X

SPACEX–XAI MERGER COULD BE ANNOUNCED THIS WEEK SpaceX is in advanced talks to merge with xAI as Elon Musk moves to consolidate his companies, Bloomberg reported. Some investors have already been informed. An announcement could come as soon as this week, though talks could still collapse. The move comes as SpaceX reportedly prepares for a possible IPO later this year and has also explored ties with Tesla.

(5) AJ on X: “Re Tesla merger: The most important numbers bankers and lawyers are working out right now is the exchange ratio proposed for a Tesla and SpaceX/xAI merger. This ratio drives significantly how much value ends up with existing Tesla shareholders. The exchange ratio determines” / X

Re Tesla merger: The most important numbers bankers and lawyers are working out right now is the exchange ratio proposed for a Tesla and SpaceX/xAI merger. This ratio drives significantly how much value ends up with existing Tesla shareholders. The exchange ratio determines how many Tesla shares will be issued to SpaceX/xAI shareholders in exchange for their SpaceX/xAI shares.

• 02/03/2026 – (5) Herbert Ong on X: “Wedbush’s Dan Ives @DivesTech says Tesla could eventually merge with SpaceX and xAI, forming one company across AI, autonomy, space, and robotics. That level of integration would be something we’ve never seen before! Huge value opportunity, or too complex to manage? What’s https://t.co/hjiUUZCpmi” / X

• 02/03/2026 – (5) Herbert Ong on X: “Bloomberg: SpaceX, which is considering a future IPO valued around $1.5 trillion, has also discussed the possibility of a tie-up with Elon Musk’s Tesla. $TSLA https://t.co/tlVR6163Bv” / X

(5) Sawyer Merritt on X: “Dan Ives in new $TSLA note: “In our view there is a growing chance that Tesla will eventually be merged in some form into SpaceX/xAI over time. The view is this growing AI ecosystem will focus on Space and Earth together…..and Musk will look to combine forces/technologies over” / X

Dan Ives in new $TSLA note: “In our view there is a growing chance that Tesla will eventually be merged in some form into SpaceX/xAI over time. The view is this growing AI ecosystem will focus on Space and Earth together…..and Musk will look to combine forces/technologies over time. Tesla now is laser focused on autonomous and robotics in this key era for Musk & Co. and we expect more cross-pollination between Tesla and SpaceX over the coming year which is bullish for the Tesla story in our view. Musk wants to own and control more of the AI ecosystem and step by step the holy grail could be combining SpaceX and Tesla over the next 12 to 18 months in some form to give the connected tissue between both disruptive tech stalwarts looking to lead the AI Revolution.”

• 02/03/2026 – (5) 谢嘉琪 on X: “加密货币大佬Anthony Pompliano刚刚购买了100万美元的特斯拉股票！ 他的4个理由很简单： 不要和马斯克对赌，他是这一代最伟大的企业家。 自动驾驶将成标配，特斯拉在数据和技术上遥遥领先。 机器人与AI市场空间巨大，特斯拉机器人领头羊。 特斯拉与SpaceX、xAI合并的可能性正在上升！ https://t.co/lxoc6x6WCL” / X

(5) Anthony Pompliano on X: “I just personally purchased $1 million of Tesla stock. Here are the four reasons why: 1. Never bet against @elonmusk – he is the greatest entrepreneur of our generation. 2. Self-driving will be the standard – $TSLA has the data advantage and the best technology. 3. Robotics” / X

• 02/03/2026 – (5) TheSonOfWalkley on X: “BREAKING: $TSLA TO TELL SENATE COMMITTEE THAT CONGRESS MUST “MODERNIZE” SELF-DRIVING REGULATIONS Bullish for robotaxis ! https://t.co/EkmW7iV8Re” / X

(5) FSD Johnny Mac on X: “@TheSonOfWalkley – Tesla’s prepared testimony for the February 4, 2026, Senate Commerce Committee hearing emphasizes federal updates to self-driving rules, including higher NHTSA exemptions for autonomous vehicles, to enable faster robotaxi rollout. – Recent bills under discussion would raise” / X

(5) *Walter Bloomberg on X: “$TSLA – TESLA TO TELL SENATE COMMERCE COMMITTEE WEDNESDAY THAT CONGRESS MUST MODERNIZE SELF-DRIVING CAR REGULATIONS, WARNING IF U.S. DOES NOT LEAD IN ROBOTAXI DEVELOPMENT “CHINA WILL BE THE DOMINANT MANUFACTURER OF TRANSPORTATION FOR THE 21ST CENTURY” — WRITTEN TESTIMONY” / X

• 02/02/2026 – (3) Herbert Ong on X: “ BLOOMBERG: $TSLA CEO Elon Musk is in advanced talks to merge SpaceX and xAI The deal would combine SpaceX’s ~$800B valuation with xAI’s ~$200B, bringing rockets, Starlink satellites, and AI under one roof. The goal: enable Musk’s vision of space-based AI compute, including https://t.co/fkPA1Diwx1” / X
• 02/02/2026 – (3) AleXandra Merz on X: “Going all-in on speculations, how it may happen and how we might vote” / X

• 02/01/2026 – (3) AleXandra Merz on X: “Impact of a Hypothetical Mega-Merger on Elon’s Tesla Compensation” / X

1. The 96m restricted stock award in the 2025 CEO interim award is most probably already forfeited

2. We are back to the original structure of the 2018 award, with stock options granting 304 million shares which need to be exercised at the latest on Jan 20, 2028, and any merger has no impact on this

3. The 2025 CEO Performance award for 423.7 million shares in 12 equal tranches pairs market cap milestones (up to $8.5T) with operational milestones, including EBITDA targets (up to $400B). A merger triggers change-in-control provisions, earned milestones vest faster, operational milestones may disappear, and market cap is recalculated fairly.

• 01/31/2026 – (3) Sawyer Merritt on X: “BREAKING: SpaceX is requesting to launch and operate a constellation of 1 million satellites with unprecedented computing capacity (orbital data centers) to power advanced AI, according to a new FCC filing. SpaceX: “Launching a million satellites that operate as orbital data https://t.co/p6C3elob23” / X

(3) Beanie on X: “Elon Musk: The lowest cost place to put AI data centers will be space —- “The lowest cost place to put AI will be space. I think the case is a no-brainer for building AI, solar-powered AI data centers in space because, as you mentioned, it’s also very cold in space. If you’re https://t.co/CvBDj1kRXJ” / X

• 01/31/2026 – Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha

• 01/30/2026 – (2) Sawyer Merritt on X: “Tesla builds massive chip fabrication and solar manufacturing facilities. Those chips and solar panels go into SpaceX’s AI satellites. xAI develops and manages the AI. That AI helps Optimus development. xAI uses Tesla Megapacks at its datacenters to smoothen out power https://t.co/RALLTqMjOp” / X

(2) Bloomberg on X: “SpaceX is considering a potential merger with Tesla, as well as an alternative combination with AI firm xAI, according to sources, a sign billionaire Elon Musk is weighing how to consolidate his empire https://t.co/32pWJrTqQD” / X

(2) Grok Conversation / X

1. Grok’s reply neutrally summarizes Bloomberg and Reuters reports on SpaceX’s early-stage merger explorations with Tesla or xAI, driven by anonymous sources citing synergies in AI computing, space energy, and robotics transport.
2. A SpaceX-xAI deal could involve share swaps ahead of SpaceX’s targeted June IPO at $1.5 trillion valuation, while Tesla integration might leverage its energy storage for orbital data centers; Nevada entities formed January 21 hint at preparations.
3. No confirmations or denials from Elon Musk, SpaceX, Tesla, or xAI as of late January 29, 2026, with Musk’s recent posts emphasizing xAI advancements and Tesla’s Model S/X phase-out instead.

(2) CyberCat on X: “X holding Company Space X 和 X 合并是意料之外情理之中的事。老股东可能会记得2020年Dave Lee 建议老马搞个X holding 公司合并老马的所有公司，致力于保证人类文明的延续和发展。当时老马就回复了Good Idea，所以如果未来特斯拉也合并进入X请大家也不要意外。 https://t.co/HGXRIlB089” / X

(2) 谢嘉琪 on X: “马斯克企业帝国合并的可能性：特斯拉，SpaceX与xAI” / X

• 01/22/2026 – (1) Ashok Elluswamy on X: “Robotaxi rides without any safety monitors are now publicly available in Austin. Starting with a few unsupervised vehicles mixed in with the broader robotaxi fleet with safety monitors, and the ratio will increase over time.” / X

Robotaxi rides without any safety monitors are now publicly available in Austin. Starting with a few unsupervised vehicles mixed in with the broader robotaxi fleet with safety monitors, and the ratio will increase over time.

• 01/19/2026 – (8) Elon Musk on X: “It only gets better from here” / X

(8) signüll on X: “the grok + tesla integration is actually super elegant. it’s the cleanest preview right now of how humans will move through the world with ai. i.e. llms for cognition + autonomy & self driving for locomotion. once thinking & motion collapse into one loop navigation sorta simply https://t.co/0sogAJWbGb” / X

• 01/19/2026 – (8) Elon Musk on X: “@Teslaconomics Solving AI5 was existential to Tesla, which is why I had to focus both the teams on that chip and I’ve personally spent every Saturday for several months working on it. This will be a very capable chip. Roughly Hopper class as single SoC and Blackwell as dual, but it costs” / X
• 01/18/2026 – (8) Elon Musk on X: “Tesla will stop selling FSD after Feb 14. FSD will only be available as a monthly subscription thereafter.” / X
• 01/07/2026 – Jensen Huang on FSD and Nvidia’s autonomous driving

Nvidia, Siemens to Build Industrial AI Operating System

• 01/06/2026 – (1) Herbert Ong on X: “Elon Musk says Tesla has a 5-year head start on everyone in AI and autonomous driving. More data, more real-world miles, faster learning curves. That gap is only getting wider. Extremely bullish. $TSLA https://t.co/ufXGAqEoWA” / X

(1) Teslaconomics on X: “Hey @elonmusk – honest question here. Are we missing something? This looks like what Tesla has already been doing for years… except Tesla is training on massive real world data from actual customers and a live fleet, with a neural network that continuously learns to chase that” / X

(1) Teslaconomics on X: “Sorry, but Tesla FSD has been doing this for years… so what’s actually new here??? Nvidia just announced Alpamayo at CES 2026, “the world’s first thinking, reasoning, autonomous vehicle AI. https://t.co/KSIWQonpSN” / X

(1) Sawyer Merritt on X: “NEWS: NVIDIA just announced Alpamayo, what CEO Jensen Huang calls the world’s first thinking, reasoning autonomous vehicle AI, launching on U.S. roads later this year, starting with the Mercedes CLA. Jensen: “It’s trained end-to-end. Literally from camera in to actuation out; It https://t.co/oqHPYLa0Xz” / X

NEWS: NVIDIA just announced Alpamayo, what CEO Jensen Huang calls the world’s first thinking, reasoning autonomous vehicle AI, launching on U.S. roads later this year, starting with the Mercedes CLA. Jensen: “It’s trained end-to-end. Literally from camera in to actuation out; It reasons what action it is about to take, the reason by which is came about that action, and the trajectory.” Alpamayo introduces Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models, which enable self-driving systems to interpret what they see, reason about complex driving scenarios, and generate driving actions. The platform includes large reasoning models, simulation tools for testing rare and edge-case scenarios, and open datasets for training and validation. NVIDIA says the approach improves transparency, safety, and robustness in autonomous systems, particularly in complex real-world environments, and supports progress toward higher levels of vehicle autonomy: “With a 10-billion-parameter architecture, Alpamayo 1 uses video input to generate trajectories alongside reasoning traces, showing the logic behind each decision. Developers can adapt Alpamayo 1 into smaller runtime models for vehicle development, or use it as a foundation for AV development tools such as reasoning-based evaluators and auto-labeling systems. Alpamayo 1 provides open model weights and open-source inferencing scripts. Future models in the family will feature larger parameter counts, more detailed reasoning capabilities, more input and output flexibility, and options for commercial usage.”

• 01/06/2026 – (1) Pejjy on X: “Everyone needs to relax. Jensen just admitted they can’t compete with $TSLA’s FSD as they lack real world data: “It’s impossible for us to simply collect every single possible scenario for everything that could ever happen in every single country and every single circumstance https://t.co/eH37NYbsDn” / X

(1) Raines on X: “I have to admit that I feel a bit worried when I saw Nvidia release Alpamayo. It is, in my opinion, the first real competitor to FSD. First of all, it does not rely on LiDAR, which is already impressive and better than all other losers out there. Then, the concept of VLA is my” / X

I have to admit that I feel a bit worried when I saw Nvidia release Alpamayo. It is, in my opinion, the first real competitor to FSD. First of all, it does not rely on LiDAR, which is already impressive and better than all other losers out there. Then, the concept of VLA is my exact understanding of what FSD 14.3 would be. And I believe Nvidia is doing really well at training general-purpose, small-sized VLMs. So, I don’t think it is very obvious who will train the better VLM for driving between Nvidia and Tesla. I’d guess Tesla, but you just can’t be so sure because it is not trivial to predict this part. Elon and Ashok surely both actively engaged with this news, and basically confirmed that Nvidia is doing exactly the same thing that Tesla is doing, with the only difference being how far they have gone along this technical path. I understand that going from 99% to 100% is hard, but first of all, Tesla isn’t at 100% yet, and second of all, the fact that Nvidia could reach near 99% without any fleet kind of proved that it is no longer critical to have large-scale fleet data for training and evaluation.

(1) Elon Musk on X: “@raines1220 I’m not losing any sleep about this. And I genuinely hope they succeed.” / X

• 12/31/2025 – the world’s first USA coast to coast fully autonomous drive! (3) Elon Musk on X: “Cool” / X

(3) David Moss on X: “I am proud to announce that I have successfully completed the world’s first USA coast to coast fully autonomous drive! I left the Tesla Diner in Los Angeles 2 days & 20 hours ago, and now have ended in Myrtle Beach, SC (2,732.4 miles) This was accomplished with Tesla FSD V14.2 https://t.co/DFA8HiH5Yf” / X

(3) Sawyer Merritt on X: “NEWS: @DavidMoss has just set a new record by officially surpassing 10,000 consecutive miles on Tesla FSD (Supervised) V14 with no interventions. True 100% FSD usage. He’s currently on track today to be the first person to complete a coast-to-coast drive (LA → FL) entirely on https://t.co/54A978X3O7” / X

• 12/26/2025 – (2) TheSonOfWalkley on X: “BREAKING: JOE ROGAN IS “AMAZED” AT $TSLA FULL SELF-DRIVING He says this will change the world ! https://t.co/JA1QC5VkBk” / X
• 12/20/2025 – great win for TSLA, not sure how much that will be reflected in stock

(3) Sawyer Merritt on X: “BREAKING: Elon Musk’s 2018 CEO pay package from Tesla, worth some $56 billion when it vested, must be restored, the Delaware Supreme Court has just ruled. TESLA AND ELON MUSK WON! https://t.co/0xFA5K32oV” / X

• 12/15/2025 – (7) Sawyer Merritt on X: “Elon on Tesla Model Y Robotaxis:” / X, Testing is underway with no occupants in the car

(7) Elon Musk on X: “@cb_doge Testing is underway with no occupants in the car” / X

(7) Yun-Ta Tsai on X: “We have been working hard for this moment. Congratulations to the teams.” / X

(7) Sawyer Merritt on X: “BREAKING: Tesla Model Y Robotaxi with literally no one in the car spotted driving itself on public roads in Austin, Texas! A new age has begun https://t.co/BtqN7QfDe7” / X

• 12/14/2025 – (6) Yun-Ta Tsai on X: “I remember the day when Elon asked us all hands on deck to solve vision only just like yesterday. We began to work really hard on reasoning the world without those crutches — like humans. While it took several heroic efforts to get there, I do not think Full Self-Driving would” / X

I remember the day when Elon asked us all hands on deck to solve vision only just like yesterday. We began to work really hard on reasoning the world without those crutches — like humans. While it took several heroic efforts to get there, I do not think Full Self-Driving would be as good as today without his insistence.

• 12/13/2025 – (6) Joseph Tesla Long Term Investor on X: “Unsupervised FSD – 3 weeks Larger model – Jan/Feb 2026 AI5 – 2027 Volume production AI6 – 2028 (shortly after)” / X

1. Unsupervised FSD – 3 weeks
2. Larger model – Jan/Feb 2026
3. AI5 – 2027 Volume production
4. AI6 – 2028 (shortly after)

• 11/25/2025 – Musk goes all in on AI chip Elon Musk’s BIG Update To Tesla Investors (This Is REALLY Big)

(1) Pejjy on X: “He’s going to do it. Elon’s recent comment on chips: “We expect to build chips at higher volumes ultimately than all other AI chips combined” is the biggest signal of this. He also has mentioned before that $TSLA may not get the volume of chips that they need for Cybercabs & https://t.co/DYQkoqz9kv” / X

• 11/23/2025 – (2) Elon Musk on X: “Most people don’t know that Tesla has had an advanced AI chip and board engineering team for many years. That team has already designed and deployed several million AI chips in our cars and data centers. These chips are what enable Tesla to be the leader in real-world AI. The” / X

Most people don’t know that Tesla has had an advanced AI chip and board engineering team for many years. That team has already designed and deployed several million AI chips in our cars and data centers. These chips are what enable Tesla to be the leader in real-world AI. The current version in cars is AI4, we are close to taping out AI5 and are starting work on AI6. Our goal is to bring a new AI chip design to volume production every 12 months. We expect to build chips at higher volumes ultimately than all other AI chips combined. Read that sentence again, as I’m not kidding. These chips will profoundly change the world in positive ways, saving millions of lives due to safer driving and providing advanced medical care to all people via Optimus. Send an email with three bullet points describing evidence of your exceptional ability to AI_Chips@Tesla.com. We are particularly interested in applying cutting edge AI to chip design. Thanks, Elon

• 11/23/2025 – (2) Elon Musk on X: “@DevinOlsenn 14.3 is where the last big piece of the puzzle finally lands” / X
• 11/14/2025 – (1) Sawyer Merritt on X: “Here is Ron Baron’s full interview with @elonmusk at the annual Baron Investment Conference. They talk about Tesla, Optimus, Tesla’s AI5 chip, Neuralink, xAI, Grok 5, FSD, buying Twitter, AI, Tesla maybe building its own chip fab, their friendship and more. I’ve cut out the https://t.co/qOMzVCVFyA” / X

Here is Ron Baron’s full interview with @elonmusk at the annual Baron Investment Conference. They talk about Tesla, Optimus, Tesla’s AI5 chip, Neuralink, xAI, Grok 5, FSD, buying Twitter, AI, Tesla maybe building its own chip fab, their friendship and more. I’ve cut out the waiting period at the beginning of the stream.

• 11/13/2025 – Tesla aims big for year 2026

Tesla AI boss tells staff 2026 will be the ‘hardest year’ of their lives in all-hands meeting

1. Tesla AI chief Ashok Elluswamy warned his staff 2026 will be a difficult year in an all-hands.
2. Tesla has aggressive timelines set for Optimus robot production and Robotaxi service expansion.
3. Elon Musk’s pay package hinges on Robotaxi and Optimus success.

• 11/13/2025 – Musk’s post on Karpathy

(1) Elon Musk on X: “Wait until he downloads V14” / X

• 11/13/2025 – Karpathy is amazed by FSD 13, not even tried 14 yet!

(1) Andrej Karpathy on X: “I took delivery of a beautiful new shiny HW4 Tesla Model X today, so I immediately took it out for an FSD test drive, a bit like I used to do almost daily for 5 years. Basically… I’m amazed – it drives really, really well, smooth, confident, noticeably better than what I’m used” / X

• 11/09/2025 – Musk’s 2025 comp plan is a very tall order (1) Elon Musk on X: “It sure is a tall order Anyone can buy Tesla stock right now and come along for the ride. There will inevitably be some bumps along the way, but, with a truly immense amount of work, I think these goals can be accomplished.” / X

(1) phil beisel on X: “The final boss in Musk’s 2025 Comp Plan is achieving $400B in EBITDA. Perspective: $238.24 billion: Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Aramco) achieved the highest annual EBITDA on record in 2022, driven by elevated global oil prices, higher sales volumes, and strong refining” / X

The final boss in Musk’s 2025 Comp Plan is achieving $400B in EBITDA.

Perspective:

$238.24 billion: Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Aramco) achieved the highest annual EBITDA on record in 2022, driven by elevated global oil prices, higher sales volumes, and strong refining margins amid geopolitical tensions and post-pandemic demand recovery. This figure surpasses other major companies like ExxonMobil ($102.59 billion in 2022) and NVIDIA ($34.48 billion in fiscal 2024). For context, Aramco’s 2023 EBITDA was approximately $236.81 billion, still leading but lower than 2022’s peak.

Let that sink in.

(1) phil beisel on X: “Mag 7 comparison 2024: https://t.co/WcAgB2GwRK” / X

• 11/07/2025 – great answers from Alexandra

(2) Ale𝕏andra Merz on X: “Bloomberg interview from this morning. Looking understandable a bit tired, but like what was said. You? Thanks for having me, @EdLudlow and @CarolineHydeTV , tough questions today. https://t.co/Rr2ac38mOa” / X

Tesla Approves Musk Pay, Board to Review xAI Investment – YouTube

• 11/07/2025 – 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting | Tesla

with FSD 14.3, people can text and sleep, and the car can drive itself to the destination!

(3) Elon Musk on X: “Time to pull a LOT of rabbits out of the hat” / X

Tesla Shareholders Approve Elon Musk’s $1 Trillion Pay Package – WSJ

The Hurdles Elon Musk Must Clear to Unlock $1 Trillion in Tesla Pay – WSJ

• 11/05/2025 – good win for Nasa and musk

(2) Elon Musk on X: “ https://t.co/3SVR8U7lrO” / X

• 11/05/2025 – Tesla Is Obsessed With Musk’s Pay Package. Musk Is Obsessed With AI. – WSJ Focus on winning tech arms race leads to long hours at xAI; employees turned over biometric data to develop controversial avatars – it is a good thing for him to focus on AI
• 11/05/2025 – (2) Tesla Yoda on X: “Buckle up — shit’s about to get real. Tesla hires Senior Robotaxi Insurance Claims Specialist. https://t.co/RAdjJCYCeS” / X

• 11/04/2025 – ‘Big Short’ trader makes $1bn bet against AI boom

A US investor depicted in the film The Big Short has placed a significant bet against artificial intelligence (AI).

Michael Burry, who bet on a US housing market crash in the run-up to the 2007 crisis, has wagered $1.1bn (£840m) on falls in shares of chip-maker Nvidia and software company Palantir.

On Monday, he posted a chart titled “US tech capex [capital expenditure] growth is matching the tech bubble of 1999-2000” and another showing how growth in demand for cloud computing at major tech companies is slowing.

Mr Burry’s investment firm Scion Asset Management has bought “put” contracts covering $912m of shares in software company Palantir and $187m of shares in chip-maker Nvidia, according to analysis of the fund’s portfolio update by investment research platform Quiver Quantitative.

(1) Quiver Quantitative on X: “BREAKING: Michael Burry just filed a portfolio update. He entered massive options positions betting against Nvidia and Palantir. He bought call options betting on Halliburton and Pfizer. Full portfolio up on Quiver. https://t.co/gImnU9dYYL” / X

• 11/04/2025 – Major Tesla Investor Rejects Elon Musk’s $1 Trillion Pay Deal – WSJ Norway’s sovereign-wealth fund is the first major institutional investor to disclose how it voted

• 11/01/2025 – (1) Pejjy on X: “Question: If the regulators in the US only allow for manufacturers to sell 2500 cars without steering wheel and pedals, doesn’t $TSLA NEED to put steering wheels and pedals so they can sell beyond the limit? I’m well aware that this limit will be increased but not entirely” / X

• 11/01/2025 – (1) Pejjy on X: “Elon Musk on Joe Rogan regarding $TSLA Roadster: Elon: “We are getting close to demonstrating the product. I can guarantee is that this product demo will be unforgettable.” Joe: “How so?” Elon: “Well, you know, my friend Peter Teal once reflected that the future was supposed https://t.co/anoFEJpSFp” / X
• 10/23/2025 – TSLA has solved the unsupervised FSD problem?

Sawyer Merritt on X: “A new 30-minute presentation from @aelluswamy, Tesla’s VP of AI, has been released, where he talks about FSD, AI and the team’s latest progress. Highlight from the presentation: • Tesla’s vehicle fleet can provide 500 years of driving data every single day. Curse of https://t.co/PAUAG01TQc” / X

the full video: Tesla ICCV 2025 Foundational Model for FSD

• 10/22/2025 – TSLA’s 3Q2025 earning call

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha

So that’s really the game changer. And we do see like — at this point, I feel essentially 100% confident — I’d say not essentially, 100% confident that we can solve unsupervised full self-driving at a safety level much greater than human. So we’ve released 14.1. – Elon Musk

(1) Tesla Yoda on X: “Signals from Tesla’s Q3 call: – Elon is 100% confident that Tesla will solve Unsupervised FSD. – Clarity on solving FSD is the signal for Tesla to expand production. – Cybercab volume production starts Q2 2026. – Safety monitor will be removed in Austin by end of year. – Safety” / X

• 10/20/2025 – FSD 14.1.2 in NYC

(1) Ashok Elluswamy on X: “For those who are still skeptical of using cameras + neural nets to drive the car, this video is the antithesis.” / X

• 10/19/2025 – How China Took Over the World’s Rare-Earths Industry – WSJ Beijing used bare-knuckle tactics in multidecade effort to consolidate control over supplies

China produced around 97% of the world’s rare earths, giving it what was effectively a global monopoly.

• 10/15/2025 – (1) Jonathan Stokes on X: “Tesla Robotaxi is now spreading its glorious tentacles across 20 metro areas. Here is the latest data, along with a smorgasbord of footnotes. The future is coming… https://t.co/TdoXFEYJor” / X

• 10/13/2025 – (3) Whole Mars Catalog on X: “Things got pretty crazy on my first daytime drive with Tesla Self-Driving 14.1.1. I give my commentary. Don’t miss the closed road at 23:30 https://t.co/MA4Qp9QP0E” / X
• 10/13/2025 – (3) Sawyer Merritt on X: “NEWS: Tesla China VP Grace Tao says the company has begun a production ramp-up for Q4 at Giga Shanghai. “At the beginning of the fourth quarter, the brothers and sisters of the Shanghai factory are working hard to expand production and sprint at full power, so that car owners in https://t.co/QP6PFgfdaM” / X

• 10/13/2025 – (2) Tesla on X: “Setting the record straight ” / X

• 10/07/2025 – FSD V14 has come, more updates to come

(3) Elon Musk on X: “Many more Tesla self-driving V14 improvements still to come, but wide rollout of V14.1 has begun. 14.2 rolls out in a few weeks and then 14.3 a few weeks later, depending on safety testing. There is so much change that we are carefully confirming each one.” / X

(3) Ashok Elluswamy on X: “FSD 14.1, the first in the v14 series, has officially started rolling out to customers! Many follow up releases, with significant improvements, are in the works. These should ship through the rest of this year. Enjoy, and looking forward to your feedback! https://t.co/UJ4Y1YPLnA” / X

(3) Alex Stypik on X: “@WholeMarsBlog Looks like we finally have FSD at 100% point to point , not just destination to destination. Parking lots were always hit and miss. Sometimes I did have FSD park at destination but mostly no. This is a game changer. Thanks for staying up all night for this.” / X

• 10/03/2025 – (3) Elon Musk on X: “Tesla Optimus learning Kung Fu https://t.co/ziEuiiKWn7” / X
• 10/01/2025 – (2) Sawyer Merritt on X: “Here is Franz’s full interview on CNBC today. He said that the version of the Cybercab that was unveiled last year will basically be the one that will hits roads next year, with maybe some minor changes, but Franz says “its only improvements to make it more efficient and better” https://t.co/OQREmj1tNm” / X

https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1973110230189068508

• 09/28/2025 – comments on FSD 14

(2) phil beisel on X: “FSD Version 14 Maybe this week we get version 14.0, as foretold by the profit [sic]. Key/expected features: 1. Version 14 10x larger model than 13, trained on more data and with many reinforcement learning (RL) use cases (see article). 2. Version 14 is multi-mode: it can https://t.co/d7AK5txr3y” / X

FSD Version 14 Maybe this week we get version 14.0, as foretold by the profit [sic]. Key/expected features: 1. Version 14 10x larger model than 13, trained on more data and with many reinforcement learning (RL) use cases (see article). 2. Version 14 is multi-mode: it can operate in supervised, unsupervised, and unsupervised Robotaxi modes, all software-controlled*. 3. Version 14.1 incorporates more fine-tuning based on an expanded range of RL use cases. Use cases likely fielded from Robotaxi experiences (Austin/Bay Area). 4. Version 14.2 expands RL use cases further. Elon’s comments on the ‘sentient’ feel of 14.2 likely come from his experience with a subset of defined cases in Version 14, and from that he can extrapolate how the full set of cases tuned in 14.2 delivers the broader ‘sentient’ experience. The tuning from 14 to 14.2 essentially completes those known areas to create a comprehensive ‘sentient-like’ reality. 5. Version 14 will only run on HW4 vehicles. 6. Version 14.2 will likely catalyze the removal of safety observers for Robotaxi. They may still be required/desired in new areas or for regulatory reasons (as is currently the case in the Bay Area). *The existence of unsupervised mode does not mean Tesla will enable it for FSD users. Multi-mode operation simply makes it possible; activation will be location-dependent and will be restricted in certain (many) areas. Dynamic mode switching will occur as the car moves between regions, with user-facing prompts to indicate these changes.

(2) phil beisel on X: “The Magic of Tesla FSD, part 7 (v14 edition)” / X

• 09/27/2025 – (1) Elon Musk on X: “@BasedBeffJezos Tesla is working hard on scaling Optimus” / X
• 09/25/2025 – FSD 14.0 is coming next week

(1) Elon Musk on X: “@Jason Version 14.0 goes into early wide release next week, then 14.1 about 2 weeks later and finally 14.2. The car will feel almost like it is sentient being by 14.2.” / X

• 09/23/2025 – (5) Pejjy on X: “Elon’s latest comments on $TSLA’s compensation package https://t.co/fyfnERvCRv” / X

• 09/21/2025 – autonomous driving will be the biggest creation of wealth in human history

(5) Elon Musk on X: “@thecybersurg Not transfer of wealth, creation of wealth. The pie will get much larger. The opposite of a zero-sum game.” / X

(5) The Surfing CyberSurgeon© on X: “This week I will drop another $50,000 into Tesla. The majority of our population does not know what’s about to happen. As Elon said, this will be the biggest transfer of wealth in human history. Tesla will run autonomy.” / X

• 09/18/2025 – (1) Sawyer Merritt on X: “Tesla has just filed its final (definitive) 2025 Proxy Statement, which means shareholders will now be able to vote on Elon’s 2025 performance based pay package proposal, Tesla investing in xAI, etc. Keep an eye out in the coming days for information from your brokerage on https://t.co/u1Q1muwGdS” / X

tm252289-12_def14a-gen.pdf

• 09/16/2025 – Phil Beisel’s excellent articles on FSD and AI

Phil.Beisel.on.FSD.and.AI

• 09/16/2025 – (1) Herbert Ong on X: “ Elon is BACK! Elon on his past few days: Friday late-night Optimus work → redeye to Austin for lunch w/ kids + AI5 reviews Sat → Mon Colossus II tour → 12 hrs of Tesla meetings (AI, Optimus, production, delivery) $TSLA https://t.co/afRimAIGgS” / X

(1) Elon Musk on X: “@greggertruck Daddy is very much home. Am burning the midnight oil with Optimus engineering on Friday night, then redeye overnight to Austin arriving 5am, wake up to have lunch with my kids and then spend all Saturday afternoon in deep technical reviews for the Tesla AI5 chip design. Fly” / X

• 09/15/2025 – Elon and Kimbal can vote on all Matters, including his comp package

(3) Ale𝕏andra Merz on X: “ Elon and Kimbal can vote on all Matters Here the passage of the proxy (proxy page 88, pdf page 102) for the 2025 CEO Performance Award: https://t.co/muvvlqRbLV” / X

Elon and Kimbal can vote on all Matters Here the passage of the proxy (proxy page 88, pdf page 102) for the 2025 CEO Performance Award:

(3) Ale𝕏andra Merz on X: “@HopeUnblemished Couple more days, waiting for the definitive Proxy. Should come between today and next Monday.” / X

• 09/15/2025 – Sawyer Merritt on X: “It’s worth noting that this stock purchase was NOT part of a 10b5-1 trading plan. Elon literally just decided to straight up buy $1 billion of $TSLA stock on the open market, increasing his stake in Tesla by 0.62%. A big vote of confidence.” / X

Sawyer Merritt on X: “BREAKING: Elon Musk bought about $1 billion of Tesla stock last Friday, his first $TSLA purchase on the open market in over 5.5 years, according to a new SEC filing. $TSLA is up 8.2% to $428 in pre-market trading on the news. https://t.co/Vuz9jhQk8R” / X

• 09/15/2025 – Elon Musk Purchases $1 Billion in Tesla Stock; EV Maker’s Shares Rise – WSJ Move signals Musk’s commitment to electric-vehicle maker as board prepares lucrative new pay package

Shares in Tesla TSLA 7.36%increase; green up pointing triangle jumped in premarket trading Monday after Elon Musk disclosed his first purchase of the stock in the open market since February 2020.

Tesla’s chief executive purchased more than 2.5 million shares in the company Friday, totalling around $1 billion, according to a regulatory filing released Monday.

(1) Herbert Ong on X: “ BREAKING: Elon Musk bought over 2.56M $TSLA shares in a Form 4 filing, worth over $1B. https://t.co/65liXMokUj” / X

(2) Elon Musk on X: “TSLA up $69 to ~$420 as foretold in the prophecy https://t.co/6uZfOIMPyO” / X

• 09/12/2025 – (1) Herbert Ong on X: “ Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm breaks down Elon Musk’s proposed 2025 pay package, why retaining him matters, AI + autonomy goals, voting control, and even succession planning. Here’s her full interview: 00:00 Tesla’s Long-Term Goals 01:33 Musk’s Compensation 04:21 Elon & https://t.co/EUKQ4xXUGO” / X

Tesla Chair on Elon Musk’s Pay, Succession Plans, and Politics

Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm breaks down Elon Musk’s proposed 2025 pay package, why retaining him matters, AI + autonomy goals, voting control, and even succession planning. Here’s her full interview:

00:00 Tesla’s Long-Term Goals

01:33 Musk’s Compensation

04:21 Elon & Politics 08:31 Voting & Leadership

12:33 Succession Planning

18:42 Safety & Wrap-Up

• 09/10/2025 – Elon Musk at the All-In Summit

(1) The All-In Podcast on X: “ Elon Musk at the All-In Summit — DOGE — Optimus — Starlink smartphones — “Grokipedia” — Evolving with AI — Why the West is Imploding — Understanding the universe — Colonizing Mars ++ much more (0:00) Introducing Elon Musk (2:47) Optimus: Progress and potential, the https://t.co/yOIL0GxKyw” / X

— DOGE — Optimus — Starlink smartphones — “Grokipedia” — Evolving with AI — Why the West is Imploding — Understanding the universe — Colonizing Mars ++ much more (0:00) Introducing Elon Musk (2:47) Optimus: Progress and potential, the “hands problem” (12:20) Tesla: AI5 chips, impact on FSD (16:50) SpaceX: Vision for Starlink-enabled smartphones, $17B spectrum deal, Starship update (26:16) xAI: Next-gen Grok models, Colossus 2, scaling laws, “Grokipedia” (31:29) Evolving alongside AI, implosion of the West, the religion vacuum (37:36) Understanding the universe, going to the Moon, what happens on Mars?

• 09/09/2025 – (1) Pejjy on X: “This is interesting… $TSLA made the first Elon’s comp package in 2012 and 12-18 months later the stock went up 500%. The second Elon’s comp package was in 2018 and 12-18 months later $TSLA stock started to ROAR until Nov 2021 (went up 2,000%). It looks like there is a” / X

This is interesting… $TSLA made the first Elon’s comp package in 2012 and 12-18 months later the stock went up 500%. The second Elon’s comp package was in 2018 and 12-18 months later $TSLA stock started to ROAR until Nov 2021 (went up 2,000%). It looks like there is a correlation with Elon’s pay package and the stock price. When Elon and investors know what the goals and incentives are, there’s a big push in the company and in the stock price. Now the third Elon’s comp package just got released. The next 12-18 months are going to be really interesting… LFG!

• 09/09/2025 – (1) Herbert Ong on X: “ Tesla just unveiled Megablock 20 MWh AC blocks, 25-year life, 91% efficiency, faster installs & lower costs. Built on Megapack 3 tech, scaling to 50 GWh/yr. Deliveries start 2026. The energy business is just getting started. $TSLA https://t.co/8QrCzm4l5G” / X

Tesla just unveiled Megablock 20 MWh AC blocks, 25-year life, 91% efficiency, faster installs & lower costs. Built on Megapack 3 tech, scaling to 50 GWh/yr. Deliveries start 2026. The energy business is just getting started.

• 09/08/2025 – (1) Joe Hansen on X: “Elon Musk is setting high expectations for Tesla AI5 and AI6 chips Musk confirmed this week that Tesla had just completed a design review for AI5. Elon Musk is setting high expectations for Tesla’s in-house silicon program. As per Musk in a set of recent posts on X, Tesla’s AI5 https://t.co/PnPhG4HZ49” / X

Musk confirmed this week that Tesla had just completed a design review for AI5.

Elon Musk is setting high expectations for Tesla’s in-house silicon program. As per Musk in a set of recent posts on X, Tesla’s AI5 and AI6 will be game-changing.

Tesla’s AI5 and AI6 are incredibly important for Tesla’s future, which will likely be built on the back of very high-volume products like Optimus and the Cybercab.

Musk sets high expectations

Musk confirmed this week that Tesla had just completed a design review for AI5, which will initially be manufactured by TSMC in Taiwan before production ramps in Arizona. As per Musk, consolidating Tesla’s chip design efforts into one architecture has allowed the company to focus its silicon talent on delivering a single high-performance platform.

“Just had a great design review today with the Tesla AI5 chip design team! This is going to be an epic chip. And AI6 to follow has a shot at being the best (by) AI chip by far. Switching from doing 2 chip architectures to 1 means all our silicon talent is focused on making 1 incredible chip. No-brainer in retrospect,” Musk wrote in his post.

In a follow-up post, the CEO also stated that the company’s upcoming AI5 chip “will probably be the best inference chip of any kind” for models below ~250 billion parameters, with the “lowest cost silicon and best performance per watt.” Musk added that AI6, which follows AI5, “has a shot at being the best AI chip by far.”

AI6 as Dojo’s successor

While AI5 is nearing production, Musk has also pointed to AI6 as Tesla’s next major target. The chip will be manufactured at Samsung’s upcoming Texas facility, part of a multibillion-dollar deal to support Tesla’s next-generation products such as the Cybercab and the Optimus humanoid robot. Musk also noted that AI6 could effectively replace Project Dojo as Tesla’s training platform, given its potential for both inference and training workloads.

Industry veterans have echoed this view, with former Apple and Rivian engineer Phil Beisel suggesting that “AI6 is now Dojo.” Musk appeared to agree, responding with a “bullseye” emoji. Musk has also noted on X that he would personally be walking the line in Samsung’s upcoming AI6 factory in Texas, to make sure that the facility’s output is accelerated according to Tesla’s requirements.

• 09/08/2025 – (1) Elon Musk on X: “You’ll Thank Me Later” / X

(1) Ale𝕏andra Merz on X: “@elonmusk We sure will. And we will deliver. And then you will. And we will thank you again.” / X

• 09/07/2025 – (1) Cathie Wood on X: “Here we go $TSLA Robotaxi!” / X

(1) Brett Winton on X: “On a random Thursday in September Tesla Robotaxi app downloads cracked the top 10 of all time highest US ride-hail activation days https://t.co/r9oS4BqUfg” / X

• 09/07/2025 – (1) Sawyer Merritt on X: “Elon says Tesla hasn’t unveiled Optimus version 3 yet, and that the gold Optimus on the far right is version 2.5 https://t.co/7wmMXKqF87” / X

(1) Elon Musk on X: “@niccruzpatane We haven’t shown Optimus V3 yet. It is sublime. The second two images are V2 and V2.5.” / X

• 09/07/2025 – (1) Herbert Ong on X: “ Morgan Stanley Says Elon Musk’s $1 Trillion Package Is A ‘Good Deal’ For $TSLA Investors Morgan Stanley’s investor and Tesla Inc. bull Adam Jonas thinks CEO Elon Musk’s new $1 trillion compensation package is positive news for the EV giant’s shareholders and investors. https://t.co/riWWuxQqhs” / X
• 09/06/2025 – Tesla’s Proxy including Elon Musk’s comp package is out Tesla Board Proposes Elon Musk Pay Package Worth as Much as $1 Trillion Over Decade – WSJ The unprecedented deal would let the world’s wealthiest person receive installments of shares if Tesla hits a series of market-capitalization and other milestones

The Trillion-Dollar Man: Tesla Tries to Lock Down Elon Musk – WSJ After a year of distractions, the automaker moves to motivate its CEO with a vision and challenge for the next decade

the official comp package document is here tm252289-4_pre14a-gen

(2) Joseph Tesla Long Term Investor on X: “$2,730 per share at 25 P/E (adj. EBITDA). I’m sorry but I think 25 P/E is a bit too conservative even in 2030. I have always assumed 40 P/E in my projection, that brings it to $11T – $12T market cap if Elon hits all the milestones in reality. $TSLA NFA” / X

• 09/04/2025 – (1) Elon Musk on X: “Robotaxi app now available for download” / X

(1) Tesla Robotaxi on X: “Robotaxi app now available to all Download to join waitlist – expanding access soon https://t.co/gYsB3ZkbZB” / X

(1) Sawyer Merritt on X: “BREAKING: Tesla’s Robotaxi app is now available to all iOS users in the US. You can join the waitlist in the app. Tesla says robotaxi access expanding soon. Android coming later. Download here: https://t.co/oTZ6P5Blkj https://t.co/pXfrxc6zgm” / X

• 09/03/2025 – here comes the Optimus V3

(2) Marc Benioff on X: “Elon’s Tesla Optimus is here! Dawn of the physical Agentforce revolution, tackling human work for $200K–$500K. Productivity game-changer! Congrats @elonmusk, and thank you for always being so kind to me! #Tesla #Optimus https://t.co/bA5IYIylE1” / X

(2) Marc Benioff on X: ““The boys are back in town!” Amazing what @elonmusk is doing to create the future. Just inspiring. https://t.co/7tNdzACaYk” / X

• 09/01/2025 – Tsla’s master plan Part IV

(2) Tesla on X: “Master Plan Part IV” / X, details of the plan is here master.plan.IV master.plan.IV

(2) Dave Lee on X: “I’m thinking this is just the intro to Master Plan Part IV. The real master plan ought to have more specifics. Just my two cents.” / X

(2) Elon Musk on X: “@heydave7 Fair enough. Will add more specifics.” / X

(2) Herbert Ong on X: “@heydave7 My guess is that the reason they kept Master Plan 4 to be high level and general is bc they’ll share the specific milestones as part of Elons comp plan. That’s what I hope anyways” / X

• 08/31/2025 – (2) DogeDesigner on X: “”Elon Musk is just an extraordinary engineer, and I love working with him. We’re going to build many more computers together. I’m delighted to be working with him. I think the Optimus opportunity is just right around the corner. It’s very likely that human robots are going to be https://t.co/D1ueLL8NjE” / X

“Elon Musk is just an extraordinary engineer, and I love working with him. We’re going to build many more computers together. I’m delighted to be working with him. I think the Optimus opportunity is just right around the corner. It’s very likely that human robots are going to be robots that we can deploy into the world relatively easily & this is the first robot that really has a chance to achieve the high volume and technology scale necessary to advance technology and I think this is likely to be the next multi trillion dollar industry.” 一 Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang

• 08/30/2025 – (2) Elon Musk on X: “Tesla Master Plan Part Deux will be complete next year. Master Plan 3 was too complex for almost anyone to understand, but described how all of Earth could move to sustainable energy. Master Plan 4 will be concise.” / X

(2) Eric Jorgenson on X: “Friendly reminder that @elonmusk called his shots. 19 years ago, he posted the @Tesla Master Plan: 9 years ago, he posted Master Plan Part Deux: https://t.co/KhEpJNmsOj” / X

• 08/29/2025 – (2) Pejjy on X: “I don’t wanna sound like Gary Black but here are some MASSIVE $TSLA catalysts ahead: 1. V14 – next month. 2. Robotaxi goes public next month. 3. Robotaxi expansion. 4. FSD available globally. 5. FSD licensing deal(s). 6. Affordable models. 7. Austin megapack factory. 8.” / X

I don’t wanna sound like Gary Black but here are some MASSIVE $TSLA catalysts ahead: 1. V14 – next month. 2. Robotaxi goes public next month. 3. Robotaxi expansion. 4. FSD available globally. 5. FSD licensing deal(s). 6. Affordable models. 7. Austin megapack factory. 8. Cybercab volume production. 9. Optimus volume production. 10. Semis. 11. Rate cuts. 12. Elon’s NEW Comp package.

• 08/25/2025 – (1) Pejjy on X: “Elons response to UBER CEO shows that Dara has no idea what he’s talking about. $TSLA https://t.co/95S0EKSKlN” / X

• 08/24/2025 – (1) phil beisel on X: “Anyone notice Elon is going harder than ever right now… like Macrohard? Tesla, xAI, and SpaceX are on fire. Tesla: Robotaxi, FSD v14. xAI: Grok 4, Grok Imagine, Colossus 2, Macrohard SpaceX: Starship on deck While others are sitting on the beach in August, Elon v2 going https://t.co/xbLlbyF8Rf” / X

Anyone notice Elon is going harder than ever right now… like Macrohard? Tesla, xAI, and SpaceX are on fire. Tesla: Robotaxi, FSD v14. xAI: Grok 4, Grok Imagine, Colossus 2, Macrohard SpaceX: Starship on deck While others are sitting on the beach in August, Elon v2 going faster than Elon v1. Velocity required.

• 08/23/2025 – (1) Herbert Ong on X: “ Elon says Tesla FSD v14 will definitely be better than humans! While v15 has a real shot at 10X. $TSLA https://t.co/RgHK22rtOj” / X

(1) Elon Musk on X: “@jamesdouma V14 will be better than human for sure, but I don’t know if it will be 10X. Maybe 2X to 3X. V15 has a shot at 10X.” / X

• 08/10/2025 – (1) Elon Musk on X: “@Katupilar The FSD release in about 6 weeks will be a dramatic gain with a 10X higher parameter count and many other improvements. It’s going through training & testing now. Once we confirm real-world safety of FSD 14, which we think will be amazing, the car will nag you much less.” / X

(1) Sawyer Merritt on X: “NEWS: Tesla’s Robotaxi service in Austin will be open to the public starting next month (September). Sooner than I thought!” / X

(1) Elon Musk on X: “@Michael_L_Rauch It will be open access next month” / X

• 08/10/2025 – (1) Elon Musk on X: “@Gfilche @Tesla I see a potential path for an epic outcome” / X

(1) Gali on X: “my take on @Tesla Dojo updates classic media skewing rapid iteration & progress as “failure” Tesla’s in house chip design is a key advantage and reason their full self driving tech (and soon Optimus) can make complex decisions in real time – the limiting factor for real world” / X

• 04/24/2026 – (1) Ihtesham Ali on X: “A British kid became a chess master at 13, then a bestselling video game designer at 17, then a PhD neuroscientist at 33, then the CEO of the AI lab that won the 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry. People called him unfocused for twenty years. He was running the most deliberate https://t.co/ekoq4vWQPz” / X
• 04/20/2026 – (21) Jaynit on X: “Steve Jobs walked into a room full of MBA students and asked how many were going into consulting. Hands went up. He said their careers would be “like a picture of a banana.” “You might get a very accurate picture. But you never really taste it.” He spent 60 minutes explaining https://t.co/jF0k4WWZzG” / X

A student asked: what’s the most important thing you learned at Apple that you’re doing at NeXT? Jobs thought for a moment. “I now take a longer-term view on people.” “When I see something not being done right, my first reaction isn’t to go fix it. It’s to say, we’re building a team here. And we’re going to do great stuff for the next decade, not just the next year.” “So what do I need to do to help so that the person that’s screwing up learns, versus how do I fix the problem?” “And that’s painful sometimes. And I still have that first instinct to go fix the problem.” “But taking a longer-term view on people is probably the biggest thing that’s changed.”

• 04/18/2026 – daily routine: 30–60 minutes daily: split between puzzles (15 min), game analysis (15 min), and playing (30 min). Analyze Matthew’s games with him to discuss mistakes and improvements (use a coach or tools like Chess.com’s analysis feature).

Phase 2: Ages 5–8 (Building Skills and Discipline)

Goal: Develop tactical and strategic understanding, start competitive play. Duration: 2–3 years.

1. Tactical Training:
   • Use puzzle books or apps (e.g., ChessKid puzzles, Lichess Puzzle Storm) to practice tactics daily (10–15 minutes).
   • Focus on common patterns: forks, skewers, discovered attacks, and checkmate patterns.
2. Opening Basics:
   • Teach simple openings like the Italian Game (1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bc4) or London System for structure and safety.
   • Emphasize principles: control the center, develop pieces, king safety.
3. Endgame Fundamentals:
   • Teach basic checkmates (e.g., king + queen vs. king, king + rook vs. king).
   • Introduce pawn endgames and key concepts like opposition.
4. Coaching:
   • Hire a chess coach (in-person or online) for 1–2 hours per week to provide structured lessons.
   • Look for coaches with experience teaching kids (e.g., via ChessKid or local clubs).
5. Competitive Play:
   • Enroll Matthew in rated scholastic tournaments (USCF or FIDE-rated).
   • Aim for 1–2 tournaments per month to build experience.
   • Goal: Reach a rating of 1200–1600 (intermediate/club level).
6. Study Routine:
   • 30–60 minutes daily: split between puzzles (15 min), game analysis (15 min), and playing (30 min).
   • Analyze Matthew’s games with him to discuss mistakes and improvements (use a coach or tools like Chess.com’s analysis feature).
7. Resources:
   • Books: Winning Chess Tactics by Yasser Seirawan, My First Chess Opening Repertoire by Vincent Moret.
   • Apps: Lichess (free, excellent for puzzles and analysis), Chess.com (premium for kids’ features).
   • Watch GM games on YouTube (e.g., ChessBase India or Saint Louis Chess Club) to inspire him.

Key Focus: Build discipline while maintaining enthusiasm. Celebrate small milestones (e.g., first tournament win, rating increase).

• 01/10/2026 – Rosenthal Effect

(2) iPaul on X: “麻省理工发现一个很神奇的方法，能让孩子心甘情愿写作业的“罗森塔尔效应”。家长们可以马住试一试！ https://t.co/vqaeaRlxUZ” / X

• 01/09/2026 – Coach Navid recommended books

Good for beginners: Dan Heismann

Amatour mind: Jeremy Silman

How to reaccess your chess : Jeremy Silman

• 01/05/2026 – one parent from San Diego Chess Club recommended this chess club for me, REBECCA CHESS CLUB – Index. It seems very interesting.
• 12/24/2025 – (1) Elon Musk on X: “You can sense the sentience maturing” / X

(1) Jim Fan on X: “I was very late to own a Tesla but among the earliest to try out FSD v14. It’s perhaps the first time I experience an AI that passes the Physical Turing Test: after a long day at work, you press a button, lay back, and couldn’t tell if a neural net or a human drove you home.” / X

• 12/23/2025 – recommended by Elon Musk

(3) Grok Conversation / X

1. The post highlights a 2022 meta-analysis on goal setting in sports, showing process goals (e.g., technique focus) yield large performance gains (d=1.36), outperforming moderate effects from performance goals (d=0.44) and negligible ones from outcome goals (d=0.09).
2. Author Steve Magness, a performance expert with books like “Do Hard Things,” uses this to advocate shifting from results obsession to actionable processes, aligning with self-regulation theory’s emphasis on controllable behaviors.
3. Thread replies reveal practical curiosity—e.g., examples like training routines—and note the study’s age, reflecting sustained debate on applying goal research beyond elite athletics.

The best way to improve performance—whether in sports, skills, work, or personal development—is to prioritize process goals over outcome or performance goals, according to strong evidence from sports psychology research.A 2022 meta-analysis of 27 studies (Williamson et al.) found that:

• Process goals (focusing on technique, strategy, or controllable actions) had the largest effect on performance improvement (Cohen’s d = 1.36, a very large effect).
• Performance goals (e.g., achieving a specific time, score, or personal best) had a moderate effect (d = 0.44).
• Outcome goals (e.g., winning, beating others, or final rankings) had almost no effect (d = 0.09).

Process goals work better because they’re fully under your control, reduce anxiety from uncontrollable factors (like opponents or conditions), direct attention to executable actions, build self-efficacy, and promote consistent effort and persistence.Practical Steps to Improve Effectively

1. Focus primarily on process goals
   Identify the specific behaviors, techniques, or habits that drive better results.
   • Examples in running: “Maintain relaxed shoulders and quick cadence during strides” instead of “Run a sub-20-minute 5K.”
   • In writing/public speaking: “Practice deep breathing before starting” instead of “Deliver a flawless presentation.”
   • In learning a skill: “Spend 30 minutes daily on deliberate technique drills” instead of “Master this by next month.”
2. Use a hierarchy of goals
   • Set 1 big outcome goal for direction and motivation (e.g., “Win the league” or “Get promoted”).
   • Break it into performance goals as milestones (e.g., “Improve my average score by 10% this season”).
   • Drive everything with multiple process goals (the daily/weekly actions that make the above possible).
3. Make goals SMART where it fits
   SMART (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, Time-bound) is great for making process and performance goals concrete and trackable.
   • Bad: “Get better at free throws.”
   • Good (process): “Practice 100 free throws with proper form 4 days per week for the next month.”
4. Track progress and adjust regularly
   Review weekly: What processes did you execute? What worked? Tweak as needed—flexibility prevents frustration. Feedback (from a coach, data, or self-review) amplifies goal effectiveness.
5. Combine with other proven habits
   • Deliberate practice (focused, effortful repetition with feedback).
   • Consistency over intensity.
   • Build intrinsic motivation by emphasizing mastery and enjoyment of the process.

Obsessing over outcomes often leads to pressure and suboptimal performance. By shifting attention to controllable processes, you build better habits, stay motivated longer, and—paradoxically—achieve better outcomes as a byproduct. This approach is backed not just by the 2022 meta-analysis but aligns with decades of goal-setting theory in psychology. Start small, stack process wins, and improvement compounds.

(3) Steve Magness on X: “A new meta-analysis on the impact of goal setting on performance found: 1. Process goals had a large effect on performance 2. Performance goals had a moderate effect 3. Outcome goals had a negligible effect https://t.co/v9KQ7KkWV0” / X

• 11/29/2025 – Demis Hassabis talks about the moment he wanted to pursue research instead of continue the pursue of outstanding chess career. Playing chess is the best way to train mind of kid, but not much useful for the benefit of human society.

(1) Bearly AI on X: “Demis Hassabis talks about the moment he wanted to pursue research. At 12, he was world’s 2nd best chess player for his age. He went to a tournament and lost to a 30-year old player, who was overly happy beating a kid. Demis loved chess but realized all the brainpower in that https://t.co/rWnnC3vil5” / X

great documentary movie
(19) The Thinking Game | Full documentary | Tribeca Film Festival official selection – YouTube

• 11/29/2025 – I Played England’s Youngest Chess Master, Ethan Pang plays chess 2 hours a day

I Played England’s Youngest Chess Master

Ethan Pang – Wikipedia

London Schoolboy Becomes Youngest Person in the World to achieve +2200 FIDE Chess Rating

Ethan Pang, a 9 year-old chess prodigy becomes youngest person in the world to achieve +2200 FIDE Chess Rating, earning him the title of Candidate Master (CM).

LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM, June 18, 2024 /EINPresswire.com/ — In an extraordinary display of talent and determination, 9 year-old Ethan Pang has made history by becoming the youngest person in the world to achieve a FIDE chess rating of 2200. This feat, accomplished during a chess tournament in Newmarket, Suffolk, has earned him the prestigious title of Candidate Master (CM).

Ethan’s journey to chess mastery began at the tender age of 5 during the COVID-19 lockdown. Like many other children forced to stay at home, he sought ways to entertain himself. He started playing chess and watching videos online and quickly developed a passion for the game. Recognising Ethan’s burgeoning talent, an extremely supportive chess coach at his school encouraged him to pursue the game more seriously.

From playing chess in the afterschool chess club, Ethan began participating in local over-the-board chess tournaments in London. His natural aptitude for chess quickly became apparent, and by the age of 7, Ethan was selected to represent England at the European Youth Chess Championship 2022. The following year, he also competed at the FIDE World Cadet Championships 2023 in Egypt.

Ethan’s father, Raymond says, “We’re really proud of Ethan and will continue to be his biggest supporters for as long as he wants to play.”

Ethan’s ascent to a FIDE rating of 2200 was sealed when he drew against an International Master (IM) in Newmarket, Suffolk.
This achievement, at just 9 years and 2 months old, makes him the youngest person to achieve this ranking.
He is also currently the highest-ranking child in the under 9 age group worldwide.

Ethan’s guiding principle is “Never give up!” as inscribed by one of his earlier chess coaches.

WUS pupil breaks chess record – Youngest ever to achieve Candidate Master (CM) status | Westminster Under School

One of our Year 5 pupils, Ethan, has achieved a remarkable milestone in the world of chess. At just nine years old, Ethan is the youngest player ever to surpass a FIDE rating of 2200, allowing him to obtain the prestigious title of Candidate Master (CM). Ethan’s record-breaking accomplishment surpasses the previous record held by FM Faustino Oro.

Ethan became a member of Westminster Under School’s chess team under the guidance of Dr. Horridge, Head of History and Master i/c Chess, upon joining in Year 3. His passion for the game quickly became apparent, and with dedicated practice, both at home and at school, Ethan has made significant strides in his chess journey. Since turning nine in March, Ethan’s rating has soared from 1878 to an impressive 2212 in just three tournaments.

Ethan’s father, Mr Pang, said: “Since joining WUS, Ethan has experienced significant advances in both his chess abilities and personal growth. The school’s commitment to holistic development has been crucial in refining his chess skills, fostering positive behaviour, and instilling a strong philosophy for achieving his goals.

Through unwavering guidance and support, Dr Horridge has been instrumental in nurturing Ethan’s chess development. He has not only invited Ethan to participate in school tournaments but has also provided him with the opportunity to learn from his mistakes, enabling continual improvement. The combination of the school’s well-rounded approach and Dr Horridge’s dedicated mentorship has been pivotal in Ethan’s journey to becoming the accomplished chess player he is today.”

Dr Horridge, commented: “Ethan is a player of the most outstanding ability, a true prodigy with a glittering chess career ahead of him.”

• 11/28/2025 – chess lessons – Basic Chess Openings and mid game strategies

Basic Chess Openings Explained – GothamChess

The 10 Best Chess Plans For The Middlegame – Chess Strategy For The Middlegame – Midgame Strategy – ChessVibes

• 04/15/2026 – (21) Breaking911 on X: “High school student Mia Heller, 18, has reportedly invented a water filter capable of removing up to 95.5% of microplastics. https://t.co/hI8u1SkUMS” / X – what can Matthew do for this science project?
• 03/12/2026 – (9) Dustin on X: “NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang just said the quiet part out loud about what the education system will never admit. For a century, we built humans to think like calculators. The algorithm made that skillset obsolete overnight. Huang: “The definition of smart is somebody who’s https://t.co/lSsuwGX4q8” / X

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang just said the quiet part out loud about what the education system will never admit. For a century, we built humans to think like calculators. The algorithm made that skillset obsolete overnight. Huang: “The definition of smart is somebody who’s intelligent, solve problems, technical. But I find that that’s a commodity. And we’re about to prove that artificial intelligence is able to handle that part easiest.” Software engineering was supposed to be the safe play. Superintelligence cleared it first. The SAT was supposed to measure intelligence. It was measuring the ability to follow instructions. Raw technical processing isn’t a competitive edge anymore. It’s the floor the machine stepped over before you woke up. The question isn’t what you can calculate. It’s what you can see before the data shows up. Huang: “People who are able to see around corners are truly, truly smart. And their value is incredible. To be able to preempt problems before they show up, just because you feel the vibe.” That vibe isn’t magic. It’s the collision of first principles, human empathy, and lived experience no model can fake. Huang: “That vibe came from a combination of data, analysis, first principle, life experience, wisdom, sensing other people.” The operators who see around corners will command the AI. The ones waiting for dashboards to update will be replaced by it. Huang: “I think long term the definition of smart is someone who sits at that intersection of being technically astute, but human empathy and having the ability to infer the unspoken, around the corners, the unknowables.” The unspoken variables are the new leverage. The human psychology inside a market. The invisible friction in a negotiation. The instinct to build something nobody asked for yet. You can’t spreadsheet your way there. You can’t prompt your way to that perception. It comes from decades of watching what doesn’t show up in the metrics. Huang: “And that person might actually score horribly on the SAT.” The future doesn’t belong to people who memorized answers. It belongs to people who sense the questions before anyone thinks to ask. The old system tested your ability to follow orders. The new one tests your ability to move through the unknown. And the machine can’t help you with that part. That part is entirely on you.

• 01/31/2026 – (3) The Math Flow on X: “Calculus for the Practical Man by J. E. Thompson. Historical fact: Richard Feynman mastered calculus starting with this book. https://t.co/9SINkpwf3Z” / X

• 01/26/2026 – (2) Abhinav Gupta on X: “In china they teach Arduino and raspberry pi as a part of school curriculum. Then later they teach themselves circuit design via YouTube videos This is a hill I will die on, the countries that skip on these basic building blocks at a young age (ex. india) will be cooked” / X

China’s compulsory education system, which spans nine years (primary school from ages 6-12 and junior secondary from ages 12-15), underwent a major reform in 2022 with the release of the “Compulsory Education Curriculum Program and Standards” by the Ministry of Education (MOE). This reform optimizes the curriculum structure, emphasizes core competencies like innovation and practical skills, and includes Information Technology as an independent subject starting from grade 3 (around age 8-9).

The Information Technology curriculum focuses on four key areas: information awareness, computational thinking, digital learning and innovation, and responsibility in an information society. It incorporates programming, coding, data processing, algorithm design, and basic AI concepts, with hands-on activities to foster problem-solving and creativity.

Since September 2025 (now in effect as of 2026), AI education has been made mandatory across primary and secondary schools nationwide, requiring at least 8-10 hours of AI instruction per year starting from grade 1 (age 6).

The curriculum progresses from basic concepts like smart devices and simple algorithms in early primary years to more advanced topics such as machine learning, neural networks, and ethical AI use by high school.

This is part of broader policies like the 2017 Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan and the 2018 Education Informatization 2.0 Action Plan, which integrate AI and coding into the Information Technology syllabus.

Regarding hands-on training with tools like Arduino and Raspberry Pi: While the national curriculum standards do not explicitly mandate these specific devices, they are commonly used in school implementations, particularly through “maker education” initiatives integrated into STEM and Information Technology classes.

Maker education, promoted since 2015, emphasizes project-based learning with open-source hardware for IoT, robotics, and electronics, and is widely adopted in primary and secondary schools to build practical skills.

For example:

1. Primary level (ages 6-12): Activities often involve basic coding with visual tools (e.g., Scratch), simple robotics kits, and introductory hardware like Arduino for building sensors or LED circuits, aligning with computational thinking goals.
   asiapacific.ca +1
2. Secondary level (ages 12-18): More advanced projects may use Raspberry Pi for AI applications like image recognition or IoT systems, supported by partnerships with companies such as SenseTime and iFlytek, which provide educational robots, labs, and online platforms.
   asiapacific.ca

Local variations exist, with provinces like Zhejiang and cities like Hangzhou leading in mandatory AI and maker programs from younger ages.

Textbooks, such as those from SenseTime’s K-12 AI series, include hands-on modules, and schools often equip maker spaces with Arduino, Raspberry Pi, and similar tools for extracurricular or integrated activities.

This approach aims to cultivate innovation, with over 10,000 AI pilot schools established by 2022.

For the full official documents, refer to the MOE’s 2022 standards (available in Chinese on moe.gov.cn), which outline weekly hours: Information Technology gets 2-3 hours per week in grades 3-9.

If you need translations or specifics on a grade level, let me know!

Sample Arduino lesson plans

Here are several sample Arduino lesson plans drawn from educational resources, suitable for students (often middle or high school level, but adaptable for younger ages with supervision). I’ve focused on beginner-friendly ones that emphasize hands-on activities, programming basics, and circuit building. These can be scaled for classroom use or self-study.Sample 1: Introduction to Physical Computing with Arduino (from CodeHS Course)This structured course is designed for beginners, progressing from setup to advanced projects over 16 lessons. It’s ideal for middle or high school students, with a focus on programming concepts and physical hardware integration. No prior experience is needed.

1. Objectives: Build foundational skills in Arduino programming, hardware setup, control structures, and sensor/motor integration to create interactive projects.
2. Materials Needed: Arduino board (e.g., Uno), USB cable, breadboard, jumper wires, LEDs, resistors, motors, sensors (varies by lesson).
3. Key Lessons and Activities (summarized in phases):
   1. Intro Phase (Lessons 1-6): Welcome to Arduino; set up hardware; learn comments, pseudocode, variables, and debugging. Activity: Write and test simple code sketches, culminating in a quiz.
   2. Control Structures Phase (Lessons 7-12): Loops, if/else statements, operators, functions, and motor control. Activity: Program loops to control motor speed or direction; quiz on concepts.
   3. Project Phase (Lessons 13-16): Challenges like building a basic robot; explore new sensors (e.g., ultrasonic for distance); step-by-step project (e.g., automated light system); final capstone integrating all skills (e.g., sensor-triggered device).
4. Duration: 10-20 hours total, spread over weeks.
5. Assessment: Quizzes, project rubrics evaluating code functionality, creativity, and debugging.
6. Extensions: Adapt for team projects or integrate with real-world applications like environmental monitoring.

Sample 2: Beginner Arduino Tutorials (from TopTechBoy)These video-based lessons are self-paced and targeted at absolute beginners, making them great for young students (ages 10+) or introductory workshops. They emphasize practical steps with visual demos.

1. Objectives: Understand Arduino basics, hardware prototyping, and simple programming to build confidence in electronics.
2. Materials Needed: Arduino board, computer with Arduino IDE, breadboard, basic components like LEDs.
3. Selected Lesson Summaries:
   1. Lesson: Getting Started with Arduino: Step 1: Unbox and identify Arduino components. Step 2: Install Arduino IDE software. Step 3: Connect board via USB and upload a “Blink” sketch (flashes an onboard LED). Activity: Modify code to change blink speed.
   2. Lesson: Understanding Breadboards: Step 1: Explain breadboard layout (power rails, terminal strips). Step 2: Build a simple circuit (e.g., LED with resistor). Step 3: Connect to Arduino and power it via code. Activity: Test continuity and troubleshoot shorts.
   3. Lesson: Understanding Variables: Step 1: Introduce variable types (int, float). Step 2: Declare and assign values in code. Step 3: Use variables in a loop to control an output (e.g., dimming an LED). Activity: Create a program that increments a counter and displays via serial monitor.
4. Duration: Each lesson 20-45 minutes; series can be completed in a few sessions.
5. Assessment: Self-check via working circuits and code output.
6. Extensions: Combine with sensors for data logging projects.

Sample 3: Arduino Education Kits and Curricula (from Arduino.cc)Arduino’s official education programs offer modular lesson plans tied to kits, aimed at K-12 students to foster STEAM skills through hands-on maker activities. They start from young ages (e.g., middle school) with block-based coding and progress to text-based.

1. Objectives: Develop programming, electronics, and problem-solving skills via real-world challenges; align with curriculum standards for innovation and sustainability.
2. Materials Needed: Specific kits like Alvik Robot (with Arduino Nano ESP32), PLC Starter Kit, Science Kit R3 (sensors for physics), or Greenhouse Kit (IoT components).
3. Key Lesson Examples (from kit-based curricula):
   1. Basic Robotics with Alvik Kit: Step 1: Assemble robot and connect to computer. Step 2: Use block-based coding to make it move (forward/backward). Step 3: Advance to MicroPython for sensor integration (e.g., line following). Activity: Program obstacle avoidance.
   2. Physics Experiments with Science Kit R3: Step 1: Set up sensors (e.g., temperature, motion). Step 2: Code data collection via Arduino IDE. Step 3: Analyze in Science Journal app. Activity: Measure velocity or forces in simple experiments.
   3. IoT Sustainability Project with Greenhouse Kit: Step 1: Build enclosure with sensors for humidity, CO2, etc. Step 2: Program automation (e.g., fan activation). Step 3: Monitor via cloud. Activity: Optimize for plant growth simulation.
4. Duration: 9-25 hours per kit, with 9 guided lessons plus open-ended projects.
5. Assessment: Project outcomes, peer reviews, and certifications (e.g., Junior Certification for basics).
6. Extensions: Cross-curricular ties to science or environmental studies; community projects shared on Arduino Forum.

These samples can be adapted based on available hardware and student age. For full details, check the sourced websites or explore free resources like the Arduino IDE tutorials. If you need plans for a specific grade level or theme (e.g., robotics-focused), provide more details!

• 01/10/2026 – Rosenthal Effect

(2) iPaul on X: “麻省理工发现一个很神奇的方法，能让孩子心甘情愿写作业的“罗森塔尔效应”。家长们可以马住试一试！ https://t.co/vqaeaRlxUZ” / X

• 01/05/2026 – 100 of the Best Learning-to-Read Books for 6-Year-Olds – Stories & Thyme

• 03/23/2026 – (11) bo on X: “introducing clawberry took a few days but i built my daughters a handheld AI running @openclaw with speech tells jokes, updates family calendar, answers what’s for dinner, etc. 3d printing a case for it next! build instructions below https://t.co/8gTl5SI4iG” / X
• 02/09/2026 – (8) ⧫ Alan Chen ⧫(alanchentsla.eth） on X: “黄仁勋揭露：你向ChatGPT问的每个问题，都在暴露公司战略” / X
• 01/28/2026 – (4) AppSail on X: “Moltbot 新手安装教程，VPS 购买-安装-安全配置-实战体验一条龙” / X
• 01/26/206 – Harari and Tegmark on Humanity and AI
• 01/26/2026 – (2) Shruti on X: “I Spent 40 Hours Researching Clawdbot. Here’s Everything They’re Not Telling You.” / X

又一个火出圈的AI应用！个人AI助理雏形：Clawdbot来了|AI_新浪财经_新浪网

(2) Javi Lopez on X: “ CLAWDBOT What is it? Why is ABSOLUTELY the entire internet going crazy using it? How do you not fall behind and start using/installing it? Let me break it down I’ve never seen adoption this brutal and this fast in my life. In just a few days: thousands of GitHub stars, a https://t.co/wLomigoc9x” / X

(2) 迈克 Mike Chong on X: “花了几十个小时，算是把 ClawdBot 入门的坑都踩过了，就做了一系列的小视频帮助大家，欢迎大家提供反馈。视频链接在二楼。 https://t.co/9ZGV1B8uUK” / X

(2) 一口新饭 on X: “推荐看一下。感谢@mike_chong_zh 教会我setup clawdbot” / X

• 01/16/206 – Apple and tech hardware stocks face ‘crisis’ as memory prices soar

Soaring prices for memory and storage components have turned companies like Sandisk Corp., Micron Technology Inc. and Western Digital Corp. into the hottest stocks in the market over the past year. But they’re causing headaches for many of their customers.

Hardware companies from Apple Inc. to HP Inc. are under pressure, as their need for expensive memory components becomes an investing risk — one that isn’t expected to reverse anytime soon.

The surging demand for memory has contributed to what the technology research firm IDC calls “an unprecedented memory chip shortage,” which it sees as a “crisis” for device manufacturers as supply shortages lead to skyrocketing prices for the chips.

• 01/10/2026 – (2) DAN KOE on X: “The most important skill to learn in the next 10 years” / X

• 01/05/2026 – NVIDIA Live with CEO Jensen Huang CES 2026
• 12/31/2025 – 为什么Manus没有留在中国？_新浪财经_新浪网

临近年末，一则收购消息引起科技圈震动。Meta宣布正式收购通用AI Agent产品Manus的母公司蝴蝶效应，这是Meta成立以来第三大并购交易，仅次于WhatsApp（190亿美元）和Scale AI（150亿美元）。交易完成后，Manus将保持独立运营，创始人肖弘任Meta副总裁。

一家“生于中国，长于中国”，创始团队全部为华人的AI创业团队，为何没有留在本土发展，也没有被国内巨头收购，反而被远在大洋彼岸的Meta收入囊中？

• 12/23/2025 – (3) Demis Hassabis on X: “Yann is just plain incorrect here, he’s confusing general intelligence with universal intelligence. Brains are the most exquis​ite and complex phenomena we know of in the universe (so far), and they are in fact extremely general. Obviously one can’t circumvent the no free lunch” / X

Yann is just plain incorrect here, he’s confusing general intelligence with universal intelligence. Brains are the most exquis​ite and complex phenomena we know of in the universe (so far), and they are in fact extremely general. Obviously one can’t circumvent the no free lunch theorem so in a practical and finite system there always has to be some degree of specialisation around the ​target distribution that is being learnt. But the point about generality is that in theory, in the Turing Machine sense​, the architecture of ​s​uch a general system is capable of learning anything computable given enough time and memory​ (and data), and the human brain (and AI foundation models) are approximate Turing Machines. Finally, with ​regards to ​Yann’s comments about chess players, it’s amazing that humans could have invented chess ​in the first place (and all the other ​a​spects ​o​f modern civilization ​from science to 747s!) let alone get as brilliant at it as someone like Magnus. He may not be ​strictly optimal (after all he has finite memory and limited time to make a decision) but it’s incredible what he and we can do with our brains given they were evolved for hunter gathering.

(3) Elon Musk on X: “Demis is right” / X

• 12/23/2025 – (3) 傅盛 on X: “福布斯发布了2026年全球AI领域十大预测，感觉每一条都能带来不小的震荡，以下是精简版： 1. Anthropic启动IPO，成史上受瞩目科技上市案；OpenAI因1500亿美元资金需求及业务复杂性，选择推迟上市规避财务审视。 2. https://t.co/4qewZ9D8jS” / X

Forbes has released the top 10 global AI predictions for 2026, and it feels like every single one could bring significant disruption. Here’s the condensed version:

1. Anthropic launches IPO, becoming the most watched tech listing in history; OpenAI, due to its $150 billion funding needs and business complexity, chooses to delay going public to avoid financial scrutiny.

2. Details of Ilya’s SSI research leak out, potentially proving that an intelligence leap can be achieved without massive computing power and data, forcing OpenAI and others to reevaluate their current tech roadmaps.

3. Chinese domestic AI chips break through technical and ecosystem bottlenecks, gradually replacing scaled-down Nvidia products, ushering in a dual-circulation pattern for global computing power.

4. The grand narrative around AGI cools off, with companies shifting focus to scenario-based AI applications that can generate real revenue.

5. Chip depreciation becomes a key variable in the stock market, as shortened hardware iteration cycles put asset-heavy companies like CoreWeave under pressure from asset devaluation, sparking debates over financial bubbles in the industry.

6. The era of general-purpose GPUs comes to an end, as mature AI-assisted design tools drive specialized chips to become the new hot trend, helping companies optimize energy efficiency and costs.

7. Sam Altman may step down as OpenAI CEO and transition to chairman, with a professional manager poised to take over.

8. The wave of AI-driven unemployment surges all at once, becoming a core issue in the U.S. midterm elections, with both parties focusing on the balancing act between innovation and jobs.

9. Traditional pharmaceutical giants kick off a wave of mergers and acquisitions, snapping up startups in the AI protein design space and integrating core algorithms into their R&D pipelines.

10. Neuralink faces encirclement by non-invasive technologies, as companies like Precision Neuroscience leverage high safety and simplified surgical processes to push brain-computer interfaces into the mass consumer market.

• Great interview from Demis Hassabis

(6) Google DeepMind on X: “We’re using AI to work on root node problems – fundamental scientific challenges that unlock societal benefits. From fusion and superconductors to entirely new materials, our CEO @DemisHassabis discusses what comes next after #AlphaFold – all on our podcast with @fryrsquared. https://t.co/D7tpq1i8Bf” / X

Timecodes: 01:42 2025 progress 05:14 Jagged intelligence 07:32 Mathematical version of AlphaGo? 09:30 Science vs commercialization 12:42 Scaling 17:43 Genie and simulation 25:47 Evolution in simulation 28:26 AI bubble 31:56 Building ethical AI 34:31 AGI 44:44 Turing machines 49:06 How it feels to lead

DeepMind掌门人万字详解通往AGI之路_创事记_新浪科技_新浪网

在最新一期播客中，DeepMind掌门人哈萨比斯清晰地勾勒了他心目中通往AGI的一条现实路径：

一半靠规模扩展，另一半靠真正的科学突破。

• 12/16/2025 – LEAP 71

University of Sheffield test fire world-first ‘AI designed’ rocket engine | MAC | The University of Sheffield

• 11/28/2025 – interesting read on their new AI model

Two Gen Zers turned down millions from Elon Musk to build an AI based on the human brain—and it’s outperformed models from OpenAI and Anthropic

• 10/28/2025 – Exclusive | OpenAI’s Promise to Stay in California Helped Clear the Path for Its IPO – WSJ Company assured state officials on its commitment as it continues its global expansion, which could include a public offering as soon as 2027
• 10/27/2025 – Qualcomm Launches AI Chips to Challenge Nvidia’s Dominance – WSJ

• 03/09/2026 – (9) Jacob King on X: “Bill Ackman literally gave a 44-minute masterclass that explains money better than any business school: https://t.co/9386t9em9b” / X
• 01/19/2025 – great interview of Ackman and Erin Molan Bill Ackman on X: “I really enjoyed this conversation with @Erin_Molan. I think you will enjoy it.” / X

Erin Molan on X: “In conversation with @BillAckman We cover a LOT Does he trust Donald Trump on Israel? Biden legacy? (he does not hold back…) Will he and Elon put in a bid for TikTok? How he thinks the US should free Fannie and Freddie (Aussies – I know ) His own political https://t.co/lELEAYALgx” / X

• 03/04/2024 – Tilson recommended Ackman’s interview

My banking expert friend’s take on blockchain and banks; Performance of stocks added to and removed from the Dow; Inflation and Fed expectations; Bill Ackman on Lex Fridman’s podcast; Scuba pictures | Stansberry Research

I’m looking forward to listening to my college buddy Bill Ackman’s three-and-a-half-hour marathon interview on Lex Fridman’s podcast. You can watch it on YouTube here, listen to it here, and here’s an outline:

(00:00) – Introduction
(08:55) – Investing basics
(13:47) – Investing in music
(22:08) – Process of researching companies
(26:47) – Investing in restaurants
(32:16) – Investing in Google
(37:58) – AI
(43:13) – Warren [Buffett]
(45:22) – Psychology of investing
(54:53) – Activist investing
(1:04:41) – General Growth Properties
(1:20:57) – Canadian Pacific Railway
(1:28:21) – OpenAI
(1:32:32) – Biggest loss and lowest point
(1:47:21) – Herbalife and Carl Icahn
(2:04:11) – Oct. 7
(2:10:42) – College campus protests
(2:29:09) – DEI in universities
(2:50:00) – Neri Oxman
(3:15:30) – X and free speech
(3:19:54) – Trump
(3:27:30) – Dean Phillips
(3:34:36) – Future

Puck’s William Cohan wrote an in-depth column about the interview: The Measure of Ackman.

This is the most interesting revelation from the interview, a battle with another hedge-fund titan, which Bill had never discussed publicly:

Ackman also disclosed, for the first time he said, a battle he had around 2017 with another billionaire hedge fund manager, Paul Singer at Elliott Management, who was trying to force Bill out of business by striking him while he was down.

What happened, Ackman explained, was that Elliott took a “big position” in Pershing Square Holdings – the U.K.-based, publicly trading investment company that is Bill’s version of Berkshire Hathaway. He said Elliott then shorted all the stocks in Bill’s portfolio and went long on the stock he had shorted, “making a bet that we’d be forced to liquidate.”

Bill said that Elliott then came to him and tried to “force” him to liquidate. It was a nightmare scenario. “I envisioned an end where the divorce takes all my resources,” he said, “the permanent capital vehicle ends up getting liquidated, and another activist in my industry puts me out of business.” And then he met Oxman “and I had fallen completely in love with her.”

As the article continues, the “nightmare” went on:

[Ackman said] “I was envisioning a world where I was bankrupt, a judge found me guilty of whatever and he sends me off to jail… I find myself in this incredible mess. And I decided I didn’t want things to end that way.”

He then did something he pledged to himself that he would never do: borrow money. He went to JPMorgan Chase and, on “a handshake” with the bank, borrowed $300 million. (“I had been a good client over a long period of time,” he said.)

He used the money to buy up enough blocks of stock in Pershing Square Holdings to thwart Elliott’s strategy…

“I remember the day I bought a big block of stock in the market and I get a call from Gordon Singer, who’s Paul Singer son who runs the London part of their business. He’s like, ‘Bill, was that you buying that block?’ I said, ‘Yes.’ He said, ‘F–k.’ He knew that once I got that, they were not going to be able to succeed and they went away. And that was the bottom. And we’ve had an incredible run since then.”

• 06/26/2021 – good to learn from Ackman’s 7 mistakes and 7 principles

Bill Ackman: 7 Mistakes Every Investor Makes

1. Seven mistakes every investor makes
2. Overcoming adversity
3. learning from mistakes, learn everything possible from Buffett
4. be confident
5. contribute more
6. deal with criticism
7. always do your due diligence

Here are Bill Ackman’s principles to successful investing: