Tim's El Salvador Blog

Salvadorans' view of their country

2012-05-26T22:12:00.001-05:00

Salvadorans have not felt good about the general situation in their country for a long while. For as long as I have been writing about public opinion polls in this blog, the majority of Salvadorans have told pollsters that the country is in a bad way and getting worse.

This week's La Prensa Grafica poll results are more of the same.

69.3% of those polled said the general state of the country was bad, while only 13.6% said it was good. This was actually a slight improvement over LPG's last poll in February.

The reported gang truce has led to a perception among those polled that the level of homicides has gone down and that the security situation in the country has somewhat improved. An increasing number of people (35.6%) say the economy is the biggest problem facing the country.

Although 63.9% of the population believes the country is on the wrong course, 65% approve of the job the president Mauricio Funes is doing. Funes completes his third year in office this week.

Law protects migrants and families

2012-05-17T21:41:00.000-05:00

An article from IPS today describes a recently enacted Salvadoran law for the benefit of migrants. The Special Act for the Protection and Development of Salvadoran Migrants and Their Families was enacted in March 2011. IPS describes the law:

Article 1 of the act states that public policies are to be designed for protection and support of migrants and their families, in coordination with the state and civil society.

The act establishes a Migration and Development Programme aimed at creating productive initiatives for migrants' relatives who remain in El Salvador, and for people deported from the United States, who amounted to some 19,000 people in 2011, about the same as in previous years according to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

"Wherever there are Salvadoran citizens, we want their human rights to be protected by the state," lawmaker Karina Sosa of the left-wing governing Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN), who was on the legislative commission that steered the bill through parliament, told IPS.

The act provides for high-level coordination between Salvadoran authorities and their counterparts in Mexico - a transit territory for migrants - and the United States, the usual destination.

Once it is formed, the Council will have responsibility for designing and monitoring a comprehensive policy for protection of and assistance for migrants and their families.

The path north from El Salvador to the US is one fraught with peril for the migrants. Gangs, corrupt police, and physical perils take their toll on hundreds every year. And yet the human flow keeps going. This law is a recognition of a central reality of present-day El Salvador.

First Lady of El Salvador Vanda Pignato

2012-05-14T20:56:00.000-05:00

Earlier this month, USAID published an interview with El Salvador's First Lady, Vanda Pignato, who also holds the position Secretary of Social Inclusion. Much of her work has focused on improving the lot of women in her country. Her signature project has been "Ciudad Mujer" which offers women one-stop access to healthcare, education, job training, childcare, physical and sexual abuse treatment, and other services. It aims to empower women by teaching them about their rights and providing a safe space where they can receive support and assistance. Here is the first part of the interview:

Q. First Lady, I know you are very passionate about women’s rights. How are you raising the profile of this issue in El Salvador?

A. As Secretary for Social Inclusion, one of the main goals during my mandate is to promote public policies based on a human rights approach to ensure the realization, respect and guaranty of rights of historically excluded populations. Women make up over half of the population in El Salvadorand have been excluded from access to governmental services, as these were designed without a gender specific focus. With this in mind, the idea to create a center specifically for women to promote and enhance their fundamental human rights became an issue that needed to be addressed. Ciudad Mujer is a program that has raised awareness of the invisibility women have had when it comes to accessing state services, and has begun to change the model of government by integrating services and having a gender based approach. But what is most important is that Ciudad Mujer is changing the lives of thousands of women and they have begun to recognize themselves as right holders.

You can read the rest of the interview here.

FMLN leadership chooses Sánchez Cerén for 2014

2012-05-11T21:04:00.003-05:00

This week El Faro reports on a meeting of FMLN top leadership where a vote was taken to designate Salvador Sánchez Cerén as the party's candidate for president in 2014. The 50 top leaders of the party came together on April 10 to review the party's results in the March elections. But beyond that, according to El Faro's sources, they reviewed possible presidential candidates and decided on Sánchez Cerén.

The article reports that all present at the meeting felt that the election of Mauricio Funes had not really brought the party into power. The FMLN does not feel like the party of the government. So the party elite wants to make sure that the next presidential candidate will wear the red colors of the party (and not the white shirt which Funes wore to distinguish himself from the party).

With that as a goal, the party leaders looked for who best represents the tradition of the FMLN. That person they felt is "Leonel", the nom de guerre of Sánchez Cerén as a rebel commander during the civil war.

While this meeting was not an official nomination of the vice president as a candidate and won't be publicly discussed, El Faro indicates that party officials view the matter as largely closed.

So the FMLN has apparently decided to follow the model of its 2004 presidential campaign with Schafik Handal, where the left-wing party was trounced at the polls, rather than follow the model of its greatest success in the 2009 presidential election of Funes. Apparently ideological purity is more important than the prospect of winning.

The fragile truce

2012-05-10T22:06:00.000-05:00

This chart illustated an article in the Economist titled El Salvador's Gangs. The article describes the gang truce which has continued since mid-March through today:

But now quiet reigns in the country’s roughest districts. In March the two main gangs, the Mara Salvatrucha and the Mara 18, declared a truce, cutting the murder rate by two-thirds overnight (see chart). Police say May has been even calmer. The rate is now close to that of fairly stable Brazil.

The mobs have since made further concessions. On May 2nd they promised not to recruit in schools. Five days later inmates at La Esperanza, an overcrowded prison, vowed to stop extorting people using jail phones. “I want to ask forgiveness from society and those who gave us the chance to change,” said Dionisio Arístides, the Salvatrucha leader. “We’re human beings who aren’t just here to do evil.”

Not everyone believes that.

The Economist article, which is worth a read, goes on to offer the cautionary tale of Belize, where a gang truce negotiated by the government has subsequently broken down and the murder rate spiked.

Supreme Court denies extradition request in Jesuit case

2012-05-09T12:26:00.000-05:00

El Salvador's supreme judicial court has refused the request of Spain for the extradition of 13 former military officers in the case of the 1989 murder of the Jesuits. The result is not very surprising, but does contribute to the ongoing impunity for human rights violations which occurred during El Salvador's civil war. The court ruled that prior to the year 2000, Salvadoran law prohibited the extradition of its citizens. Since the murders occurred in 1989, the court decided that it had to apply the ban on extradition which existed at that time.

There is still no progress on attempts to repeal the amnesty law which was passed at the conclusion of the civil war. That law serves as the justification for the Salvadoran government not to bring those responsible for civil war human rights violations to justice in El Salvador's own courts.

Some travel safety tips

2012-04-30T20:12:00.000-05:00

As a blogger writing in English about El Salvador, I often get questions about the safety of traveling in and about El Salvador. My usual advice is that travelers should rely heavily on Salvadorans they know and trust who can counsel them on when, where and how to go places in the country.

I may also point people to some practical advice written by a "gringa in El Salvador" at El Salvador from the Inside titled Colorful Safety Guidelines for visiting El Salvador (or moving here). Here's her tip about shoe choice:

Tennis Shoes / Sneakers
Men: leave expensive Adidas, Nike, and Air Jordan (or latest $150 craze) where they belong: at home in your closet, thousands of miles away from El Salvador. Buy a cheapo pair, and replace them with a standard brand that non-ostentatious people wear here after you arrive. It’s ok to look ‘cool’ at home, but here looking cool means “come steal my wallet.” Or the very sneakers you are wearing. People do wear converse style brand and knock-offs here.

Ladies: it is still not common practice to walk around with “exercise/walking” sneakers as a female in El Salvador unless you’re going to the gym, or wearing the “converse” style that are all the rage. Anything outside of that usually means, “Hey everyone, I’m NOT FROM HERE!!”

Example: At the Fiestas Patronales recently, it appeared a woman at the next table was ‘visiting.’ Looked like a Salvadoran, as she was among them; who else comes to the boonies in Agua Caliente, Chalatenango? The shorts she wore were shorter, but fair game for El Salvador. It was the paper-white legs inside them, along with American style walking sneakers at the bottom (eeeek! stop sign!) that were a dead give away. That, along with constant camera-clicking, and taking pix of poor children in the snack area. I wondered how many years those legs have gone without proper Tropical sunshine to have turned that hue.

The rest of the tips are here.

Jobs for gang members

2012-04-28T09:47:00.000-05:00

The reduction in gang violence in El Salvador from the gang truce is the best story from El Salvador this year, but this reduction in killings will be short-lived if there is not increased opportunity, hope and social inclusion. Hannah Stone in The Christian Science Monitor described some steps the government is taking to increase jobs for former job members:

Last week, El Salvador’s government announced a new scheme that it says will give tens of thousands of former gang members the opportunity to rejoin the labor market after they leave prison (link in Spanish). Vice Security Minister Douglas Moreno said that participants would receive job training and opportunities with companies participating in the project. The so-called “labor parks” would also be for "at risk" youth, who live in areas with high gang presence. The pilot scheme, the minister said, would have some 500 participants, but would eventually benefit between 50,000 and 70,000 people across the country.

When announcing the initiative, the minister was flanked by representatives of Rio Grande, a preserved food company, and League Central America, a textiles producer. Both organizations have already launched schemes to employ former gang members, which have been running for some three years (link in Spanish). League Central America has 30 ex-gang members on its staff, making up 15 percent of its employees, while Rio Grande has 250, with another 100 currently taking part in rehabilitation workshops. Rodrigo Bolaños of the League urged other companies to take part, saying that "the gang members have shown us that they are productive."

This sounds good, and I hope it can be built upon, but it will be a struggle in a country with high unemployment and little economic growth.

Secret Service partied in El Salvador

2012-04-26T07:43:00.000-05:00

A Seattle TV station is reporting that US Secret Service agents drank and partied in a Salvadoran strip club prior to president Obama's visit to El Salvador last year. The Secret Service is currently enmeshed in a scandal over similar activities in Colombia prior to a presidential visit there.

From the KIRO-TV report:

The strip club’s owner confirmed a large number of U.S. secret service agents (and some military escorts) “descended on his club” that week prior to President Obama’s visit. He claims agents were there at least three nights in a row. "No surprise to me." The owner told Halsne his club routinely takes care of high-ranking employees of the U.S. embassy in San Salvador as well as visiting FBI and DEA agents. The owner says his reputation for "security" and "privacy" makes him a popular strip club owner with "those who want to be discreet."

Government to begin wiretaps

2012-04-25T18:00:00.001-05:00

El Salvador's government will start wiretapping and telecommunications intercept operations from a new center beginning in May announced the country's attorney general Romeo Barahona. The Center for Telecommunications Interception (CIT) was funded with a $5 million grant from the US. The National Assembly had given the government the power to eavesdrop on phone calls in a law passed in February 2010. The ability to tap phone calls is described as a tool for combating organized crime.

The website InSight Crime describes the US push for these actions in El Salvador and other Central American countries:

The US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) will help train Salvadoran officials, including police and magistrates, in wiretapping operations, stated El Salvador's Attorney General Romeo Barahona. The funds provided by the US will come through the Central America Regional Security Initiative (CARSI).

The US has been pushing "intelligence-led policing" in Central America over recent years, advocating wiretapping operations across the region, according to a February 2012 US Congress report. With the passing of a wiretapping law in Honduras late last year, all seven Central American countries now have legislation in place that allows the practice.

The US had been pushing especially hard for such a law to be passed in El Salvador, it seems, with a leaked diplomatic cable revealing that "intense engagement" by US officials over a two-year period helped break a legislative deadlock over the new law. As well as being admissible in El Salvador's courts, evidence gathered from CIT operations can also be used in the US thanks to a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed between the two countries in January 2011.

Cathedral occupation ended

2012-04-24T22:17:00.000-05:00

Two weeks ago I wrote about the "occupation" of San Salvador's Metropolitan Cathedral which had closed the church for months including Holy Week. That protest finally ended with the return of control to church authorities on April 16. Angela Smith relates the story:

In central San Salvador this morning, members of three organizations representing veterans of the historic FMLN guerrilla forces and labor rights leaders handed over the Metropolitan Cathedral after three months of occupation, in exchange for assurances that sincere dialogue addressing the groups’ demands with the Salvadoran government will begin immediately. Their struggle will continue at the negotiation table, mediated by a permanent commission promised this morning by the director general of human rights for the Salvadoran government, Oscar Luna, who will serve as a mediator along with representatives of civic and faith-based organizations.

Although the beautiful Fernando Llort mosaic which used to adorn the facade of the cathedral is gone, at least the church and the tomb of Romero are once again open to those who want to worship or just visit this church which has figured so prominently in recent history. You can read the background of the non-violent protest which occupied the cathedral in the rest of Angela's article here.

2014 presidential hopefuls

2012-04-22T21:30:00.001-05:00

The next presidential election in El Salvador will not be until 2014, but as soon as last month's municipal and legislative elections ended, people began talking about possible candidates to replace Mauricio Funes. Here are some of the leading contenders.

Norman Quijano. The mayor of San Salvador from the ARENA party won a second term by a landslide. As mayor of the country's largest city, he has already shown the ability to gather significant support and is probably viewed as someone able to get things done.

Ana Vilma de Escobar. She was the vice president of El Salvador from ARENA during the administration of Tony Saca. She sought that party's nomination in 2009 and is likely to do so again in 2014. In the recent legislative elections, she campaigned vigorously to be elected as an ARENA deputy and had more votes than any other candidate for the National Assembly.

Tony Saca. President of El Salvador from 2004-2009, Tony Saca is rumored to be interested in returning to the presidency. The ARENA party elected him, but now they call him a traitor because of his connections to the breakaway GANA party. He is now the leading figure to be a presidential candidate for GANA. (A president in El Salvador may not be re-elected to successive terms, but can be re-elected when there is a gap in time between the presidential terms).

Salvador Sanchez Ceren. The current vice-president of El Salvador and former guerrilla commander is one of the traditional hard-left leaders of the FMLN. According to ContraPunto, the FMLN leadership is lining up to choose Sanchez Ceren as its candidate for 2014. The party leadership is unhappy with Mauricio Funes who they believe has not been true to the party agenda. In the same ContraPunto article, Mauricio Funes is quoted expressing skepticism about Sanchez Ceren as a candidate rather than a moderate leftist like Funes.

The FMLN, as well as the other parties, might do well to look at the example of Funes. His popularity remains high, as shown by a recent Mitofsky poll giving Funes a 65% approval rating - the highest in Central America.

A day without murders

2012-04-15T20:01:00.000-05:00

This story from Reuters speaks for itself:

No one was murdered in El Salvador on Saturday, officials said, in what was the first homicide-free day in nearly three years for the Central American country plagued by violent drug gangs.

"After years when the number of murders reached alarming levels of up to 18 per day, we saw not one homicide in the country," President Mauricio Funes said in a statement released on Sunday.

The murder-free day was the first recorded since leftist Funes took office in June 2009.
At the beginning of Funes' term, the country had an average of 12 murders a day, but that tally climbed closer to 18 per day in early 2012.

Rival gangs operating in El Salvador called a truce last month and bloodshed between the country's two most powerful gangs, Mara Salvatrucha and gang Mara 18, has abated.

No Easter worship in Metropolitan cathedral yesterday

2012-04-09T22:32:00.001-05:00

Last week El Salvador's Metropolitan Cathedral was not filled with the faithful Catholics worshiping at Holy Week services. In fact, religious activities have not occurred in the Cathedral for almost three months. The cathedral has been occupied by demonstrators since January 10, seeking progress on a variety of demands of related to compensation of civil war veterans.

After celebrating Easter at a different church yesterday, archbishop José Luís Escobar, called the ongoing occupation of the Metropolitan Cathedral a "sacrilege."

Angela Smith was part of a delegation who met with the occupiers, and described their concerns in this blog entry:

The occupation is a nonviolent attempt to prompt negotiations with government officials whom organizers say have turned a blind eye to calls for resolution, their demands as outlined in a public notice in early March and expanded upon in our meeting today are the following: execution of pensions for the families of fallen veterans (combatants of the armed conflict), reinstatement of some 3,000 police officers arbitrarily dismissed for political motives between 1999-2001, reinstatement of labor union leader, Luis Ortega, whom they say was dismissed arbitrarily by government officials in violation of labor rights and for political motive, an increase in pensions for wounded veterans, and the issuance of scholarships for the children of combatant veterans of the civil war which ended with the 1992 Peace Accords. They are also denouncing what they refer to as militarization of the civil national police force (Policía Nacional Civil), also in violation of the Peace Accords.

The groups, AVERSAL, FUNDELIDDI, and UNIDAD SINDICAL, representing families of wounded and fallen soldiers and police officers they say were wrongly dismissed along with their families, claim the government has made no real attempt to negotiate and has violated previous agreements. Meanwhile, they say thousands of wounded veterans and their families are suffering in extreme poverty due to political persecution.

In January, the government issued a statement claiming the conflict had been resolved, but the occupiers say the government did not follow through with a signed agreement. After leaving the Cathedral per the agreement which was made, they occupiers returned on the 3rd day of non-compliance with the agreement according to organizers and have not left the Cathedral since. An attempt earlier this month to negotiate ended without progress and a mediation committee has been formed in cooperation with the Procuraduría de la Defensa de Derechos Humanos (a human rights agency of the government which has independent authority to act) in order to mediate before the federal government. Episcopal Bishop Martín Barahona is part of the mediation committee.

I'm not sure the demonstrators are making any progress on seeing their demands met, nor am I sure they picked the most effective strategy.

Oscar Romero on Good Friday

2012-04-06T10:37:00.000-05:00

Good Friday is an appropriate day to remember once again the example of slain archbishop Oscar Romero. The crucifixion of Jesus Christ which is celebrated today is echoed in the martyrdom of Romero as a prophet, preaching a gospel which was good news to the poor and an indictment of those persons and institutions who would harm and oppress them.

In March, a new documentary about Oscar Romero was released on DVD. The film, Monseñor: The Last Journey of Óscar Romero, compiles extensive audio and video recordings of Romero together with interviews of from those whose lives were changed by Archbishop Romero, including church activists, human rights lawyers, former guerrilla fighters and politicians. You can order a copy from First Run Features at this link. Highly recommended.

Our friend Polycarpio has posted a lengthy overview on his blog of the lack of progress of the canonization of Romero as a saint of the Roman Catholic church. Although Oscar Romero is widely beloved and cherished as a saint by millions in El Salvador and the rest of Latin America, official recognition of sainthood by the Vatican seems to be permanently stalled.

From a Holy Week sermon by archbishop Romero:

Christ would not be Redeemer

if he had not concerned himself with giving food

to the crowds that were hungry,

if he had not given light to the eyes of the blind,

if he had not felt sorrow for the forsaken crowds

that had no one to love them, no one to help them.

Christianity cares about human development,

about the political and social aspects of life.

Redemption would not be complete

if it did not consider these aspects

of the Christ who chose in fact to be an example

of one oppressed under a powerful empire

and under a ruling class of his people

that savaged his reputation and honor

and left him on a cross.

MARCH 26, 1978

Source, The Violence of Love

Convert TPS to Permanent Residence now

2012-04-01T17:01:00.000-05:00

I want to throw the support of this blog behind what seems to me a quite sensible idea -- to convert the status of the thousands of Salvadorans in the US on Temporary Protected Status (TPS) to permanent residence (a "green card").

There are approximately 215,000 Salvadorans in the US on TPS. TPS was originally granted to suspend deportations to El Salvador on humanitarian grounds after the 2001 earthquakes. TPS has been extended every 18 months thereafter. Since TPS only applies to Salvadorans in the US as of February 12, 2001, each person on TPS has lawfully lived in the US for more than 11 years.

A coalition of groups of Salvadoran-Americans, migration rights groups, and faith-based organizations have come together to push for this change. The website for this coalition explains why we should advocate for this sensible change in US immigration policy:

After having legally lived and worked here for over a decade, having paid fees to the government to maintain their status, having paid taxes, having undergone background checks, having done everything else required by the law and most importantly having come forward and registered in a conditional program when the US government gave the opportunity to those undocumented to do so, we believe they have earned the opportunity to become a lawful permanent resident. In addition, they have demonstrated to be individuals of good moral character every time they have renewed their status.

We came together to support vibrant futures for families that have not only contributed to our national economy, but have been a critical and positive force in the reconstruction of their home countries by sending remittances to family members. Permanent Residency is the only solution to ending the uncertainty and legal limbo that these thousands of families are living in everyday. It is the only viable way to enable thousands of families to reunite, ensure economic and social stability and thus, the progress of our communities and nation.

If you are in the US on TPS, the law prohibits you from returning to El Salvador or you lose your status. That's a very anti-family policy of forced separation for people who have complied with all the requirements of the law for the past 11 years. Let's spread the word in support of changing TPS to a green card and reuniting families.

The Strategic Environmental Evaluation of mining in El Salvador

2012-03-31T16:31:00.001-05:00

In 2010, the Salvadoran government contracted the services of the Spanish consulting firm the Tau Group, to perform a "Strategic Environmental Evaluation" of the issues surrounding the metallic mining industry in El Salvador. The report was to provide a basis for the Funes government to develop its own policy. To date the government's policy has consisted of a de facto ban on gold mining as the government refuses to issue new permits for the exploitation of gold resources in the country. That ban has led North American gold mining companies Pacific Rim and the Commerce Group to sue the country in international trade arbitrations.

The evaluation report was apparently completed in September 2011, but the Funes government has delayed in making its results available.

A copy of the evaluation report has now been made public by the Roundtable Against Mining (the "Mesa"). The Mesa delivered the report to El Salvador's National Assembly, arguing that the legislature no longer had an excuse not to take up legislation which would ban all mining in the country.

I have now read through the Tau Group report, and in my view, it is probably the best developed assessment of the issues surrounding the metallic mining industry in El Salvador.

Here is my very high level summary of the Strategic Environmental Evaluation report:

El Salvador is in a precarious environmental position, as a densely populated country with high levels of environmental degradation and severely challenged water resources. Metallic mining brings with it real risks of future environmental damage and social conflict. El Salvador's government at both the national and local level lacks the institutional capacity to effectively regulate metallic mining to ensure that negative effects are avoided. There is an absence of quality information about El Salvador's environmental resources, a lack of good laws and regulations, and a lack of coordination among government actors. Metallic mining might bring development benefits in a country struggling with poverty and scarce resources, but the risks are real and significant.

As a consequence, El Salvador has two options. It can pass a law prohibiting metallic mining altogether, and act to shut down the various informal mining operations which occur in an unregulated fashion in various parts of the country, or El Salvador can work towards a policy of possibly allowing a well-regulated metallic mining industry in the future, but only after there is significant strengthening of the institutional capacity of the government to regulate that industry.

I agree with those conclusions. It is time for El Salvador's government to begin an inclusive, transparent, democratic and careful debate about mining in the country.

El Salvador eliminates US Men's soccer team from Olympic qualifying

2012-03-27T08:30:00.001-05:00

In Olympic qualifying matches as part of the CONCACAF tournament, the El Salvador U-23 team scored a last second goal to tie the US men's team and end the US chances of qualifying for the summer Olympics. El Salvador had the better record going into this final game of the preliminary round, and the last second goal, shown in this video, advanced El Salvaodor to the semi-finals and left the US hopes on the field. The top 2 of the remaining 4 teams will go to the summer games in London this year.

New York Times article on homicide drop

2012-03-26T10:17:00.000-05:00

The New York Times ran a good story on the drop in the homicide rate in El Salvador yesterday titled Homicides in El Salvador Dip, and Questions Arise. The article gives new support to the idea that there was a pact between the government and the gangs:

But a Salvadoran government official and an intelligence agent with knowledge of the discussions, both of whom object to such pacts, said in telephone interviews that a deal was widely discussed by security and intelligence officials in the weeks before gang leaders were moved to less-restrictive prisons.

The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal from their bosses or the gangs, said a high-ranking colonel — part of a new team of former military officers promising to take on crime — put the idea in motion shortly after arriving at the Public Security and Justice Ministry in November, with the goal of reducing homicides by 30 percent and reaping political gains.

But the article notes there remains plenty of controversy in El Salvador:

When the security minister “gives three or four explanations of the same fact in order to justify moving these very dangerous criminals, these high-risk people, one can only feel suspicious and think that beyond the benefits they received, some pact has been reached,” said Benjamín Cuéllar, of the Institute for Human Rights at the University of Central America in San Salvador.

“There have been a series of explanations which are either contradictory, or have nothing to do with each other,” he added.

The confusing good news from El Salvador

2012-03-22T21:39:00.001-05:00

The murder rate is down dramatically in El Salvador in the past two weeks. The rate has fallen from an average of 13 murders a day to only 5. But the reasons why are murky and confused. In my last post, I mentioned a report by the online periodical El Faro that the government had negotiated a deal with the gangs. The government denied this report. A new story has a Roman Catholic bishop asserting that the church brokered a peace between the two leading gangs.

The website Insight Crime reports:

An El Salvadoran bishop has claimed that a recent drop in homicides is due to the Church negotiating a truce between the country's two main gangs, the MS-13 and Barrio 18, and that there was no government deal with these gangs.

Bishop Fabio Colindres announced in a press conference that the Church had brokered an agreement between the rivals, who agreed to cease "deadly attacks" on each other, though he said he could not guarantee how long it would last. He said that no concessions had been given by the authorities to bring about this truce, and that gang leaders had contacted him to ask him to mediate....

In his press conference to announce the truce, the bishop was accompanied by former congressman Raul Mijango, who says he helped mediate with the gangs. Both said that the government knew about the negotiations from the start.

Something seems to have taken place to halt the violence in El Salvador -- according to El Faro, there have been an average of five murders a day in the country over the last 10 days, down from 14 a day in January and February.

However, it remains unclear what has brought about this change. The bishop was unable to give details of the talks with gang members, or the names of those involved. He claimed that he could not remember the dates of the talks. El Faro points out that his description of meetings with 50 prisoners at a time clash with their experience of security policies in the maximum security facility of Zacatecoluca, where they could not meet with more than one inmate at a time.

A Spanish priest, Antonio Rodriguez, who works with reinserting gang members into society gave an interview this morning on Salvadoran TV where he dismissed the bishop's account as just so much romanticism. The gangs issued a statement today denying that they had negotiated with the government. For its part, the police attribute the reduction in homicides to the effectiveness of police operations.

Whatever the reason, the reduction in homicides is good news. But the reasons make all the difference in the world in helping us know whether this reduction portends a better future situation for El Salvador. At this point, 11 days of improvement is not enough to declare that something fundamental has changed for good.

Did the government make a deal with the gangs?

2012-03-17T10:17:00.001-05:00

In the past week, there has been a 53% decrease in the level of homicides in El Salvador from the weekly average in the first 9 weeks of 2012. The online periodical El Faro published a report on Wednesday suggesting that this decrease was the result of a deal struck between the Salvadoran government and gang leaders.

According to El Faro, 30 leaders of the Mara Salvatrucha and Barrio 18 gangs were transferred during the week of March 4 from the country's maximum security prison to lower security prisons where they can receive visits from relatives and have physical contact with visitors. This transfer was said to be part of a deal in which the transfers were made in return for the gangs reducing the number of murders. The El Faro report quoted a local leader of a Mara Salvatrucha cell who told of receiving a call from leaders in prison telling him the maras were now "on vacation:"

“El Muchacho” received a call on his cell phone on Friday morning. The call came from the prison in Ciudad Barrios and the voice on the telephone explained the new policies of the MS-13: jailed leaders had decided that the gang needed to “calm down,” which in the group’s slang is the same as saying that killings and new extortion attempts would be prohibited until further notice.

El Muchacho is an individual with whom we had scheduled an interview in a San Salvador shopping mall. He is a boss, or “palabrero,” of a local MS-13 “clica” (band). Orders that come from prison are non-negotiable, so he called up his crew and relayed the message. “We’re on vacation,” he joked.

The clica led by this 30-something had to suspend some plans immediately. According to El Muchacho, the orders caused them to put off two hits they had planned for that very same day. The only reason the gangster obeys orders like this is his utter fear of the Mara Salvatrucha’s punishment system. If a subordinate disobeys, he will be punished with anything from a severe beating to death. If El Muchaho defied his orders, both he and his boss in the Ciudad Barrios prison would be punished.

Initially, the government did not respond to the El Faro report. Minister of Public Security David Munguía Payés has now denied that there were any negotiations with the gangs. He is saying that the somewhat unprecedented movement of gang leaders from maximum security was for a mixture of reasons. Among the reasons he has pointed to are humanitarian reasons for prisoners in poor health, legal reasons for prisoners who had fulfilled a certain percentage of their sentences, and security reasons to thwart a planned massive escape attempt.

El Faro is sticking by its story.

In the past, the government has claimed that as many as 90% of the homicides in the country are linked to the gangs. If orders from gang leaders in prison could create an almost immediate drop of more than 50% in the murder rate, it adds credibility to the position that the homicide problem is primarily a gang problem and that the gangs have a well-defined structure for the command and control of individual cells in El Salvador's neighborhoods.

There will certainly be more to this story in future days.

Some post-election analysis

2012-03-14T22:02:00.001-05:00

Some themes and analysis from this week's elections.

1. The resurgence of ARENA. After their trouncing in the 2009 presidential election and then the defection of 12 GANA deputies, some wondered whether the best days for the right wing ARENA party were in the past. ARENA's recovery to have the largest number of seats in the National Assembly and to hold the principal cities in 9 of El Salvador's 14 departments shows that the party will continue to play major role in the country for years to come.

2. The FMLN returns to typical levels in National Assembly. The 2009 elections were a high water mark for the FMLN with 35 seats in the National Assembly. Those seats were won with the surge of enthusiasm over the candidacy of Mauricio Funes for president on the FMLN ticket. With 31 seats after Sunday's elections, the FMLN returns to the levels it has had since 2000:

Election FMLN Deputies

2000 31

2003 31

2006 32

2009 35

2012 31

So I see these elections less as a rejection of the FMLN and more as the elimination of the "Funes effect" from the 2009 elections.

3. Independent candidates are a non-event. It sounds like a great, democratic idea to have independent candidates, but in this election they were nowhere to be found. Only five candidates ran for the 84 seats in the National Assembly, and none of them received even 1% of the vote in the department where they were running. As long as voting for an independent candidate means you cannot vote for anyone else, this is likely to remain the same in the future.

4. Municipal races are about practical government more than ideology. In my time in El Salvador, it is clear that municipal governments affect people's daily lives in many ways, and people know who their mayor is and have an opinion about his or her job performance. Norman Quijano in San Salvador persuaded people that he was getting things done, and was rewarded with re-election. The same with Oscar Ortiz in Santa Tecla. On the other hand, in many municipalities in the greater San Salvador area like traditionally red Apopa and Soyapongo, the municipal governments did not seem to be making any improvement in people's lives and security and so the voters decided to change to ARENA.

5. Low voter turnout. Voter turnout was less than 50% in the election. That's slightly lower than the 2006 and 2009 legislative elections and much lower than the 62% in the 2009 presidential election.

Some of the more interesting speculation is about the 2014 presidential election. I'll turn to that in a future post.

Happy Birthday El Magico

2012-03-14T07:31:00.000-05:00

Tuesday El Salvador's greatest football (soccer) player turned 54. Jorge "El Mágico" Gonzalez thrilled football fans around the world with his fantastic skills during the 1980s. The sports section in the Salvadoran newspaper La Prensa Grafica on Monday devoted to El Mágico was almost as large as the election news coverage.

Here is some background from Game Intelligence:

Born into a modest family, Jorge Alberto González Barillas grew up playing football with his brothers on the streets of San Salvador, El Salvador’s historic capital. Although his prodigious talent meant that he was quickly picked up by a professional club, González never lost his fun-loving approach to the sport, and he refused to see it as anything other than a game. “I do not like to view football as a job,” he later explained, “If I did then I would not be me. I only play to have fun.”

He clearly had a lot of fun in his early professional years, winning three league titles in five years for Salvadoran giants C.D. FAS, as well as their only ever CONCACAF Champions League. His mercurial skill and ability to produce the unexpected earned him the nickname “El Mago” (the magician) amongst his adoring following, who saw him as one of their own. Despite his celebrity, González always remained humble and would often be found having a kickabout with local children in the park or drinking beer with friends from his old barrio.....

Whilst in Spain González’s nickname was transformed from El Mago to simply Mágico. For the Spanish audiences González was not a magician; he was magic. Rather than perform wizardry, he embodied it; a hex on opposition defenders who were often unable to find any counterspell. His skill seemed to come from nowhere, as if uncontrolled even by him. As the Salvadoran author Geovani Galeas would later describe:
“He is a phenomenon, a genetic mutation… I believe that he is a monster of nature; he is not accountable for his talent. Therefore, he is timid… he understands that he is not responsible for his genius.”

....
At home he is held in equally high regard, having received the Hijo Meritísimo, El Salvador’s highest honour, in 2003. His name was immortalised in 2006 when the country’s national stadium, the Estadio Flor Blanca, was renamed the Estadio Nacional Jorge “Mágico” González, although he was not entirely comfortable with such a tribute. “Every one of us Salvadorans who are trying to do things well, or at least not hinder progress, are worthy of this award. That said, I am flattered,” he responded with typical humility.

Feliz Cumpleaños Magico!

ARENA biggest winner in elections

2012-03-12T06:03:00.003-05:00

According to provisional vote totals from yesterday's elections, the conservative ARENA party appears to have been the biggest winner for both El Salvador's National Assembly seats and mayors. ARENA won 33 seats in the 84 seat National Assembly. This is one more seat than the party won in the 2009 elections, but is more impressive when you consider that 12 deputies had defected from ARENA to form the GANA party leaving ARENA with only 20 seats in the National Assembly.

GANA was running in its first elections, and managed to capture 11 seats. Together with ARENA, their 44 seats could be a strong majority bloc in the National Assembly. Although it is still possible that the FMLN, GANA and CD could be a majority voting bloc with 43 votes.

The FMLN lost 4 seats from the 35 seats it had obtained in 2009. This will be the first time since 2004 that the left wing party has had fewer deputies in the National Assembly than ARENA. With only 31 seats, the FMLN must get support from GANA and at least one of the other tiny parties in order to pass any legislation.

Of the remaining parties, the biggest loser was the conservative CN party, formerly the PCN, which dropped from 11 deputies to 6, and becomes much more irrelevant.

In the mayor's races, Norman Quijano from ARENA will remain the mayor of San Salvador, handily beating Jorge Schafik Handal 63% to 32%. A couple other high profile mayors retained their seats including the popular Oscar Ortiz, the FMLN mayor in Santa Tecla, and Will Salgado, who joined GANA to run for re-election as mayor of San Miguel.

Overall in mayor's races, it appears that ARENA fared very well. Many municipalities in the San Salvador department will be headed by ARENA mayors including Apopa, Mejicanos, Tonacatapeque, San Martin, Soyapongo and Ilopango.

View all the vote totals here.

The vote in El Salvador

2012-03-11T18:50:00.001-05:00

The polls are closed in El Salvador. Now the vote count starts. You can see the preliminary vote results at the TSE web site at: http://elecciones2012.tse.gob.sv/inicio.htm. In one aspect of transparency of the Salvadoran electoral process, you can drill down in the results all the way to individual voting tables.

INTERIM RESULTS 9:30PM LOCAL TIME -- NATIONAL VOTES FOR DEPUTIES
45% COUNTED

I am not in El Salvador for this election, but I've been monitoring the press and social media, and here are some initial comments on this election day. In general, it seems to be a good day for Salvadoran democracy. Not without problems, and not without some controversies, but generally voting seemed to proceed as intended. For a good English language overview from El Salvador, read this post at El Salvador from the Inside.

The morning opened with delays in opening some polling centers. There was plenty of encouragement for people to get out and vote. Some restaurants and stores were offering discounts if you came in and showed your figure stained with the indelible ink which was proof of voting.

The most serious problems were suspension of voting at two locations. Out of 1148 voting centers, there were two locations where voting was suspended: San Lorenzo, Ahuachapán and San Miguel Tepezontes, La Paz. In addition, ARENA reportedly pulled its officials from three other voting centers alleging the existence of fraud, but voting continued at those locations.

We'll have to wait for turnout figures, but looking at some unofficial reports, it will be something greater than 50% of eligible voters.

Human Rights Ombudsman Oscar Luna indicated that most of the complaints his office was receiving related to people not being permitted to vote because they had an expired or changed national identification card (DUI).

The Director of the Public Opinion Institute at the University of Central America affirmed that in her view the elections were proceeding normally and without complications, depsite the fact that many voters did not know about the new format for voting for deputies.

One of the items of speculation during the day are the intentions of Tony Saca, who was president of El Salvador from 2004-2009. El Faro interviewed him after he voted today, and while he expressed satisfaction with the progress of democracy in the country, he was not divulging his plans for the 2014 presidential election.

For a pictorial look at the elections in one municipality, Santiago Texacuangos, take a look at these photos from CEIBA.