Toby Durant on Sport

NFC South 2011

2011-08-24T17:41:00.000-07:00

My good friend Gur Samuel breaks down what to expect from the NFC South division in 2011 in excruciating detail. If you think you know about this division, think again!!

There is arguably no better division in the NFL right now than the NFC South. It’s a big claim, but a fair one:

The NFC South was the only division to have three teams with ten or more wins in 2010
The NFC South was the only division where all teams were better than the average for total defence (5376.8 yards – the Panthers, worst total defence in the division, gave up 5374 yards)
The NFC South was one of only two divisions to have three starting quarterbacks finish with a passer rating of 90 or more (the other being the AFC South, and one of their three quarterbacks, David Garrard, is holding onto his starting job for dear life)
The fourth starting quarterback in the division was the first overall pick in the 2011 draft. In this QB-driven league, does any division have a better collection of signal callers – even if Cam Newton proves a bust in Carolina?

You could further argue that, since the NFL was re-aligned into eight divisions in 2002, there has not been a better or more competitive division in the league. Some facts about the division since it was formed:

No division has had more teams (3) appear in Super Bowls than the NFC South
The NFC South also is tied for most appearances in Super Bowls since 2002 (also 3)
The NFC South is the only division where no team has finished either first or fourth in two consecutive seasons
The NFC South has been very much the ‘worst-to-first’ division; since it was formed, only twice has the team that finished last not gone to win the division the next season and even then, those teams finished with double-digit wins (the 11-5 Falcons in 2008 and the 10-6 Buccaneers in 2010)
Six of the nine division winners have had first week byes in the playoffs – more than any other division

So, what can we expect of such a talented and competitive division? More than perhaps any other division, the NFC South has proven to be the hardest to predict – but I’ll give it a shot, anyway.

First, let’s look at each team individually:

- Atlanta Falcons

2010 Record: 13-3

Finished: 1^st

Playoffs: No. 1 seed, first round bye, lost in divisional round to the Green Bay Packers 48-21

Dominant Storyline for 2011: ‘The Draft-Day Trade’

Can Julio Jones (#8) live up to the billing?

It may seem strange to say that the team which finished with the best record in the conference may have the largest need to silence doubters; but I believe the storyline of the 2011 Falcons season will be dominated by one thing: their huge gamble in the 2011 draft. The Falcons wanted one of the premier wide receivers in the draft class, feeling their offense lacked explosiveness; knowing the AJ Green and Julio Jones would likely both be drafted in the first ten picks, and with Atlanta slated to have the 27^th pick, general manager Thomas Dimitroff pulled off a stunning trade with the Cleveland Browns, holders of the 6^th overall pick. They got Jones, but he came at a hefty price: the Falcons traded to the Browns their first round pick; their second round pick; their fourth round pick; their first round pick in the 2012 draft; and their fourth round pick in the 2012 draft. Falcons fans, if your team doesn’t perform as well as expected, prepare to hear this trade brought up constantly by commentators and pundits; even if Jones lives up to his full potential, should the defence play poorly (remember that playoff game?), or if the offensive line struggle, the Falcons have given away opportunities to restock. Of course, if this season ends in a Lombardi trophy, Dimitroff will be crowned a front office genius – still, you have to wonder, if free agency had begun in March as usual, and the Eagles had assembled their ‘dream team’ *cough* pre-draft, would the Falcons have attempted such a ballsy trade? Leave your thoughts in the comments section.

Strengths:

- The Air Game

As I already stated, the NFC South is a division of QBs, and the Falcons have one of the best young ones in the game in Matt Ryan. Coming of his third consecutive winning season – in a franchise that had never posted two back-to-back seasons with a plus-.500 record – Ryan has the trust and belief of his teammates, his coaches and his front office. The Falcons’ passing game should only get better this year, with Julio Jones stretching the field, and taking the top of the coverage for 2010 reception-leader Roddy White and arguably the greatest tight end ever (and, according to us, sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Famer) Tony Gonzalez. Even Harry Douglas looks to have kicked his game up a notch working out of the slot receiver position instead of playing on the outside. As long as the offensive line hold up (more on that later), Atlanta should pose a huge threat in the passing game.

- The Secret Weapon

Brent Grimes (#20) secures another interception

Who is the most underrated cornerback in the NFL? Obviously, the answer is subjective, but for my money, the answer is Brent Grimes. The former Hamburg Sea Devil had a fantastic 2010, and potentially changed NFL history by sealing a victory over the Bucs – god, this is painful to type – by intercepting Josh Freeman inside the two-minute warning at the end of the game (had the Bucs had one more victory last year, they would have won the final wild card spot in the NFC instead of eventual Super Bowl winners Green Bay). Despite Dunta Robinson being the Falcons’ big free agency signing in the pre-season, it was Grimes who, according to the wonderful folk over at Football Outsiders, allowed the joint-3^rd least amount of yards per pass play at 5.0 yards, despite being targeted over 100 times over the season. He’s also clutch: four of his five interceptions last year came in the second half; more importantly, four of his five interceptions came when the Falcons were behind, giving Matt Ryan a chance to come back. The level of play and consistency that Grimes brings to Atlanta cannot be understated – a fact the front office realised, rewarding him with a new contract this offseason. Atlanta’s depth at cornerback is questionable – just ask the Packers; but at least the Falcons know that they have one stud at the position.

Weaknesses:

Having already mentioned cornerback depth, I’m going to put down two question marks, rather than out and out weaknesses:

- Can the O-Line Keep It Up?

Last year, Michael Turner ran for over 1300 yards on a league-leading 334 attempts. That workload would be tough on a younger back; Turner is 29 this season. Having lost five games to injury in 2009, the Falcons are counting on their offensive line to keep Turner healthy, and, by resigning right tackle Tyson Clabo, are returning four of their five starting linemen from last year. What would worry me if I was a Falcons fan is who they let go: Harvey Dahl. Dahl is a fantastic guard, and was a large part of Turner’s success. The middle of the line could be a potential weakness this season: Todd McClure is a good centre, but is getting old; plugged in next to him, replacing Dahl is Garrett Reynolds. Never heard of him? Don’t feel too bad – in his career, he has appeared in four regular season games, starting none, all in 2009, his rookie season. Having been drafted by the Falcons. As a tackle. If McClure’s age starts to show, don’t expect Michael Turner to finish the season.

- Proving the Pass-Rush

Let me take nothing away from John Abraham: he had a beastly 2010, finishing with 13 sacks – good for 5^th best in the league – went to the Pro Bowl, and was selected an Associated Press All-Pro. But cast your eye a little further back: in 2009, Abraham had just 5 and a half sacks, despite starting two more games than he did in 2010. You’ve also got to take into consideration that Abraham is not a young guy – he’s 33, to be precise. Was 2009 an off-year? Or will 2010 prove to have been the anomaly in the aging process? On the other side of the line is former Viking Ray Edwards, signed by the Falcons in free agency. Edwards puts up good stats, but there’s always been one criticism levelled at him – his play has been hugely enhanced playing on the same line as Jared Allen and the ‘Williams Wall’. Is it a fair statement? We’ll know by the end of the season. Both defensive ends had great and good seasons respectively last year – yet both still have something to prove.

Standout Player of the Year:

Brent Grimes. If the Falcons’ O-line is soft in the middle, they’ll need a playmaker on the other side of the ball to get back possession. Expect Grimes to rise to the challenge.

Disappointing Player of the Year:

Michael Turner. The Falcons’ game plan will rely on running early to draw safeties into the box and set up the play-action; if the O-line can’t protect him, Turner will not come close to repeating last year’s performance.

How’s the Schedule Looking?

The Falcons start out rough, facing four playoff teams in their first five weeks, including a prime time showdowns against reigning champions Green Bay – with the fifth game being an in-division game away at the Bucs, who finished with 10 wins last season and had two very fiercely contested, very close games with Atlanta. Things get easier towards the end of the season, with the team potentially seeing four rookie quarterbacks between weeks 11-15, but end the season with back-to-back division games that could well be the difference in securing a playoff spot, facing the Saints in the Superdome before hosting the Bucs in the final week of the season – don’t be surprised if this game gets flexed to primetime.

Predicted finish: 11-5

- Carolina Panthers

2010 Record: 2-14

Finished: 4^th

Dominant Storyline for 2011: ‘Can Cam Quarterback Carolina?’

Can Cam lead from Day 1?

In the 2010 draft, the Panthers used their first pick (a 2^nd rounder, having traded away their 1^st round pick) to take Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen. He gave the Panthers a 1:3 TD:INT ratio and a 1-9 record as a starter. And so, with the first overall pick in the 2011 draft, the Panthers selected Cam Newton, coming off a ridiculous season which saw him winning the Heismann Trophy, the BCS National Championship with Auburn, and putting up FIFTY ONE TOUCHDOWNS – 30 through the air, 20 with his feet, and, just to take the piss, one receiving, too. And yet, I really did not like the pick. Newton, for all the he is undoubtedly a phenomenal athlete, is a raw prospect for an NFL QB. He needs time to learn the pro game, to look to his second read if his first is covered rather than instinctively running the ball, and to work on his accuracy inside the pocket (Newton has averaged just 45.5% completion rating through the preseason). If there had been free agency prior to the draft, perhaps the Panthers would have looked to sign a veteran, and used their first round pick on, say, Marcell Dareus, who could have offered them an inside pass rush not seen in Carolina since Kris Jenkins, or perhaps AJ Green, who, coupled with Steve Smith, could have wreaked havoc on opposing secondaries. Instead, they took a quarterback who will not be ready for the pro game in week one, especially with such a truncated off season. Even if you were convinced that Newton is a future elite QB, I am truly baffled by the decision of Matt Hurney, the Panthers GM, to not bring in a veteran to start at least the first part of the season. I don’t buy the argument that the fans would ‘put pressure’ on the team to start Newton right away because of where he was drafted– or else the Titans wouldn’t have signed Matt Hasselbeck, the Vikings wouldn’t have traded for Donovan McNabb, and Tim Tebow sure as hell wouldn’t be struggling to convince his team he’s worthy of being active on game days, let alone starting. But the Panthers are 100% behind Cam, and the tale of the Panthers 2011 season will be the tale of Cam Newton.

Strengths

- The Most Underrated Line in Football?

The casual NFL fan would look at the Panthers 2-14 record last season, and would no doubt think that it is a team with a roster full of holes, and as the team finished with the worst-ranked offense in the league last season – in both points scored and yards gained – the casual fan might think, “well, they’re offensive line can’t be very good, then”. Oh, how wrong that casual fan is. As we’ve already discussed on The Pulling Linemen, the Panthers O-line is actually a damned good one, with some very nice pieces – namely former All-Pro tackle Jordan Gross, former first round pick Jeff Otah, and one of the best young centres in the game in Ryan Kalil, whom the Panthers chose to slap with the franchise tag this year rather than risk losing him in free agency (he was subsequently signed to a six-year contract that will make Kalil the highest-paid NFL centre in league history in per-year average). The Carolina offensive line in 2008 allowed for DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart to become the first ever set of teammates to both rush for over 1300 yards in the same season; four of the starters in that season are still with the team (the three previously mentioned, plus guard Travelle Wharton). If the Panthers have one true strength this season – and that could potentially be the case – it lies in the offensive line.

Weaknesses

- Quarterback Conundrum

What else were you expecting? I can make this weakness pretty brief: Cam’s too raw for the NFL. Clausen’s too bad for the NFL. Former franchise QB Jake Delhomme is still out there on the open market. And who did the Panthers choose to sign as their ‘veteran’ QB backup? Derek Anderson. Derek Bloody Anderson. Derek ‘got benched twice for rookies last season’ Anderson. Derek ‘MNF press conference meltdown’ Anderson. Yeh, have fun with that Panthers fans.

- Wide-out Washout

The Panthers have one good wide receiver – a very old Steve Smith, who averaged under 40 yards a game last season, and didn’t catch a touchdown pass after week 2. The Panthers did pick up Jeremy Shockey and Greg Olsen in free agency, but you’d ideally not want to see Carolina running two-tight end sets every snap as a necessity rather than a choice. David Gettis had potentially, but unfortunately he will be watching the 2011 season from the IR list. Oh, and related to the previous weakness: without a real receiving threat, and a rookie QB, defensive co-ordinators will be routinely putting eight in the box against the Panthers. This means one thing: Cam Newton will be find out very, very quickly why spread-style running QBs don’t have much success in the NFL. Pain-wise.

Standout Player of the Year:

Can Johnson keep getting to the QB?

Charles Johnson – maybe. For all that the Panthers offense was, well, atrocious, their defence was relatively decent, under the circumstances, being below the league average in yards conceded, and having the 11^th best passing defence in the NFL. They had, for the most part, two real stars on defence – established linebacking threat Jon Beason, and a breaking-out Charles Johnson, who got himself 11.5 sacks. Johnson got a massive contract to stay with the Panthers, so he’ll be looking to prove he was worth the money. Too bad for him, the task just got a bit harder: Jon Beason is undergoing foot surgery, could miss the season opener, and likely will not have the opportunity to truly get over the surgery until the season is over. It’s on you, Johnson: will you step up?

Disappointing Player of the Year:

In case you didn’t guess by now, I’m picking Cam Newton. I think I’ve already expressed my reasons why sufficiently.

How’s the Schedule Looking?

The Panthers must be thanking to NFL office so much for starting their season off against the third-worst run defence in the NFL last year. If their O-line and run game allows them to control the clock, and Johnson can generate some pass-rush on defence, they have a shot at starting the season 1-0. It’s a shame that a week 2 matchup with the Packers will bring them crashing back down to earth, hard. After that? Well, um, there’s the Redskins in week 8, although they have looked pretty damned impressive in the preseason (we’ll see how well that carries over to real games, however). Stafford could well be injured by the time the game against the Lions in week 11 rolls around, and the line is actually good enough to handle the Lions’ fearsome foursome up front. If Peyton’s healthy by week 12, however, Panthers fans may want to avoid football altogether until 2012 – the last six games of the season are against the Colts, Bucs, Falcons, Texans, Bucs again, and the Saints. Have fun with that.

Prediction: 2-14; MAYBE 4-12 if both Stafford and Manning are injured again/still injured when they play them. Even then, I don’t fancy their chances.

- New Orleans Saints

Dominant Storyline for 2011: Can Championship Form Be Found?

The Saints were definitely not as good in 2010 as in 2009. Instead of remaining undefeated through the first 13 weeks of the season, they managed the first two. Drew Brees through twice as many interceptions as the previous year; his passer rating dropped almost 20 points. The defence went from 2^nd in turnovers to 21^st – from 29 interceptions to a league-worst 9. And, despite all this, the Saints finished the season 11-5, and were in contention for a first week bye right up until the final game of the regular season (of course, that was dependent on the Panthers beating the Falcons, so not really. But theoretically…). The Saints still have most of the pieces of their championship-winning team in place. Heath Evans wasn’t offered a new contract by the team, neither was Darren Sharper; but fullbacks are increasingly redundant in the NFL today, and Malcolm Jenkins is going to be a long term starter for New Orleans, making Sharper superfluous. Reggie Bush was traded away, but the team signed Darren Sproles, who can do all the miss-match stuff almost as well as Bush, whilst being far better running between the tackles. Jeremy Shockey was released, but only because Jimmy Graham proved last year he can be just as good. Only Scott Fujita and Jon Stinchcomb have arguably not been fully replaced from the 2009 team (Stinchcomb being released only three days before the Saints put free agency pickup Alex Barron on injured reserve. To be fair, it’s probably a decent trade-off between a potential weakness at right tackle, and not having all those penalty flags). And, most important of all, Sean Payton is still calling the plays, and Drew Brees is still throwing the ball. With no team having back-to-back Super Bowl wins since the ’03-’04 Patriots, Who Dat Nation will no doubt have tolerated a ‘Super Bowl hangover’. But now, with so many of the same pieces in place, and with, for the first time in years, something approaching a true no. 1 running back in rookie Mark Ingram, there really should be no excuse, short of injuries, for anything less than a deep playoff run.

Is another Lombardi too much to ask?

Strengths:

- Um, Elite QB Much?

Drew Brees. If I even need to explain it to you, you don’t care enough about football to even be reading this blog. Yes, I said his passer rating dropped almost 20 points last season from the one before. And it did. From 109.6 to 90.6. Enough said.

- Williams Brings the Heat

Gregg Williams, the Saints’ defensive co-ordinator, loves him some blitz. Just ask Brett Favre in the 09 championship game – his ankle was more purple than his uniform. Or, if you want a more recent example, track down the preseason game two weeks ago against the 49ers. The defence was not the turnover machine it once was last season, but Williams is going to try his damndest to get back to that form – and that’s going to mean bringing the heat. The Saints picked up Cameron Jordan to bring some traditional DE pass-rush across the line from Will Smith, whilst the Saints went big-body hunting in free agency, picking up Shaun Rodgers and Aubrayo Franklin to clog up running lanes, and let Sedrick Ellis bring some of that inside-upfield pressure. Of course, Rodgers and Franklin have both played in 3-4 defences – so don’t be surprised if Williams throws in some three-man-line packages, letting him dabble with even more exotic blitz schemes. Williams will be bringing the pressure hard this season – as long as the DBs do their job, you won’t be seeing the Saints end up with a single-digit interception total this year.

Weaknesses:

- Right Tackle

The Saints picked up a right tackle in free agency, let their incumbent starter go, then put the new acquisition on IR. It will be interesting to see what they do there.

Yeah, I don’t have much. I’m very high on the Saints this season. As a Bucs fan, I wish I wasn’t, but there you go. I am, sadly, expecting them to be pretty dominant this year.

Standout Player of the Year:

Brees is too obvious, so I’m going to go with Mark Ingram – my preseason pick for the 2011 Offensive Rookie of the Year. No defensive co-ordinator is going to dare bring eight men into the box against Drew Brees – and Ingram’s going to benefit hugely from that. Chris Ivory, who carried the rock when both Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush were struggling with injuries last year, is currently on the PUP list. Darren Sproles is scat-back, he can run it between the tackles but you don’t want to do that too often. Mark Ingram has the potential to be a true no. 1 back, and Sean Payton, offensive genius that he undoubtedly is, is going to find a way to use that at every opportunity. He’s also been receiving goal line carries in the preseason, so I think Ingram is in for a fantastic rookie season.

Disappointing Player of the Year:

How do you decide on a disappoint player of the year on a team which has no discernible weakness? Oh, what the hell. Drew Brees, because he won’t get his QB rating above 100, it’ll be somewhere in the high 90s instead.

How’s the Schedule Looking?

The Saints kick off the whole 2011 NFL Season against the Green Bay Packers, followed by an iffy Bears team who you still can’t completely write off thanks to their 12-4 record and appearance in the NFC Championship game (unless, of course, Cutler’s inactive for that game with a fractured corpus unguis. Google it.), before taking on a sure-to-be-improved (yet really not that troubling) Houston Texans. Peyton Manning might be back in action by the time the Colts come into the Superdome in week 7, but he won’t be the Manning of old. The game away at the Rams could prove to be a classic ‘trap’ game, so that’s one to keep an eye on; the Saints follow that with welcoming the Bucs to Louisiana – don’t be surprised to see the Saints lose that one either, but I’ll explain why later on. Finally, in week 16 the Saints are at home to the Falcons, who will be in the thick of a playoff chase, a game that will definitely be a challenge. There should be no other games that the Saints should lose at all.

Prediction: 13-3

- Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2010 Record: 10-6

Finished: 3^rd

Wow. This piece is already at 4000 words and I’ve not even started talking about the Bucs yet. I’ll TRY and keep this as brief. But no promises.

Dominant Storyline of 2011: ‘Prove It.’

The Bucs youngsters need to keep improving

You know the story. But I’m telling it again anyway (damn, broke the promise already). The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 9-3 heading into their final four games of the 2008 season, having won the division the previous year. One more win would see them in the playoffs; instead, the defence fell apart, they lost four straight, and missed out on the postseason. Jon Gruden, the head coach who brought Tampa Bay its only Lombardi trophy, was fired, along with general manager Bruce Allen. Legendary defensive co-ordinator Monte Kiffin was leaving the NFL to join his son’s coaching staff at the University of Tennessee. Defensive Backs Coach Raheem Morris, already named to take over DC once Kiffin left, was chosen to replace Gruden; long-time Director of Pro Personnel Mark Dominik was named general manager. Morris & Dominik cleaned shop, releasing several veterans, including all-time Bucs great Derrick Brooks. After flirting with the free agency splurging of their predecessors, picking up Derrick Ward on a $17 million contract (!) and reportedly out-bidding the Redskins for Albert Haynesworth (!!!!!!! – Fat Albert said that he would be ‘too distracted in Tampa’. If he was ‘focused’ in Washington…), Morris & Dominik decided they would build through the draft, to put together a lasting contender. With their first pick in their first draft, they drafted Josh Freeman – the unquestionable future of this franchise. That season, however, was torturous for Bucs fans as they went 3-13. No-one predicted the Bucs would finish better than 5-11 in 2010 – and that was one of the more optimistic predictions. All they did was go 10-6, pull off the best win-loss turnaround in franchise history, become the first team since the NFL-AFL merger to have first year players lead all rookies in both rushing and receiving, become the first to start 10 or more rookies over a season and finish with a winning record, have a quarterback who posted the ninth best TD/INT ratio in NFL history, and have a quarterback who had the second biggest year-on-year increase in his passer rating in NFL history – all with the youngest roster in the league. And yet, the doubters claim that it was a result of an ‘easy schedule’ (funny, it only differed from the Falcons’ and Saints’ schedule by two games, yet no-one ever seems to level this accusation at either of those teams. Just saying.); there is no question that the storyline for this the Bucs this year is to prove that they were not just the beneficiaries of a weak schedule, but that they are for real – that they really were that damn good. And, with only three players on their 90 man roster over 30, and with 74 of those 90 being under 25, they’re only going to get better. And they’re going to stay at that level for a long, long time.

Strengths:

- The New Triplets

For years, the Bucs boasted one of the best defences in the NFL – the 2002 Bucs are arguably the greatest NFL defence of the recent past, with only the 2000 Ravens being able to lay a claim otherwise. But it wasn’t defence that won games for the Bucs last year – for the first time, the Bucs were an offense-driven team. Almost all great offenses are powered by ‘triplets’ (GSOT being an exception, they were really more ‘quadruplets’), a label first given to the Cowboys trio of Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin. It became clear last year that the Bucs have a set of triplets of their own in Josh Freeman, LeGarrette Blount and Mike Williams. Freeman put up ridiculous numbers: 25 TDs to only 6 INTs – over the last eight games, that was 15 TDs to just 1 pick (damn you Brent Grimes!). At 6’6”, 250lbs, Freeman is impossible to bring down – if you’re able to get your hands on him that is, having trailed only Michael Vick in QB rushing yards last season. And, talking about elusive, how ‘bout that LeGarrette Blount? You try tackling him, he runs through you; you try tackling him high, he leaps over you. Despite having all of 30 yards over the first five games last year, Blount ended up being only the second undrafted rookie to rush for over 1000 yards. Bring eight in the box to deal with Blount? Go ahead – leave Mike Williams uncovered. All he did was break the all-time franchise record for receiving touchdowns whilst becoming the first rookie WR since Randy Moss in 1998 to have double digit TDs. It’s a very, very exciting time to be a Bucs fan.

- Rock Solid Secondary

The front seven was not good in the defence last year. I mean really not good. 28^th in run defence; 30^th in sacks; both areas that are primarily the responsibility of the D-line and the linebackers. And yet, the Bucs finished with the 7^th best pass defence in the league. THAT, my friends, is a goddamn solid secondary. According to that wonderful Football Outsiders article, Ronde Barber, the heart and soul of this defence, finished 8^th in yards per attempt allowed. EJ Biggers, nickel corner who started five games last season, finished 7^th in what FO term ‘success rate’ (denying WRs a certain amount of yards). Even if Roger Goodell suspends Talib for a few games next season due to… ‘extra-curricular’ activities, bear in mind that Talib missed five and a half games last season. The Bucs defence might not be what it once was, but the secondary is still up there with the best the NFL has to offer.

Weaknesses:

- Run Over

Again, the front seven was not good last year. However, it should be a lot better this year, especially thanks to the very nice-looking defensive line the Bucs have been building, allowing the linebackers to do their thing and giving the secondary more chances to prove their awesomeness. However, whilst I’m drinking the Kool-Aid, I know that the Bucs need to prove, on tape, that they can stop the run, something they’ve massively struggled to do over the past two years. For now, you’ve got to say the run defence is still a weakness.

Tampa need consistency from Davin Joseph and his Line mates

- Which Line Is It Anyway?

The two preseason games so far tell the tale of two very different offensive lines. There’s the one that gave Josh Freeman whole quarters to throw the ball (may be an exaggeration) against the Chiefs, and there’s the line that… didn’t give #5 quite as much time against New England. It’s only the preseason, so it’s too early to tell which line will be the one that shows up on actual game days. There’s no question there’s the potential for it to be the line that played in Kansas City, but whether they fulfil that potential, time will tell.

Standout Player of the Year:

#5. #5. #5. Josh Freechise. This team is squarely on the back of Freeman. Don’t get me wrong, there are some really, really nice pieces on this team, but like Jeff Bridges’ rug, it’s Freeman that ties the whole team together. I’m going to restrain myself from writing much more, because I could literally talk about Freeman for hours, so I’ll just say this: Josh Freeman is the sole reason the Bucs had the #20 pick in this year’s draft and not the #2 pick. Josh Freeman IS the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And that’s all there is to it.

Disappointing Player of the Year:

Aqib Talib. Despite the fact his trial isn’t due to begin until March, Roger Goodell is likely to hand a suspension down to Talib anyway (I don’t know why. Maybe his parents didn’t hug him enough as a child). Anyway, even if Talib is proven completely innocent of all charges, he’s had a history of misconduct that should have made him stay away from that situation in the first place. So, Talib is my disappointing player for this year – because before the season’s even started, he let his emotions take control, and is likely to miss time as a result.

How’s the Schedule Looking?

The Bucs season begins with a huge grudge match against the Detroit Lions, who kept them out of the post season last year (well, them and an incompetent officiating crew). The Bucs will be looking to take revenge, the Bucs young D-line literally eat up Stafford. A trip to the Vikes should see the Bucs starting off 2-0, before a hard game at home against the Falcons could very easily go either way. The week 4 MNF game against the Colts should be in the Bucs favour with Manning likely to be off-form, if playing at all. The Bucs, of course, play the Bears at Wembley Stadium (you have no idea how much I’m looking forward to that), and that their cross-Atlantic trip is bookended with two games against the Saints should make for an interesting stretch. Of course, the Bucs have seemed to find a way to get under the Saints’ skin in the Superdome – with the 2009 Bucs becoming the first team with 12 or more losses to beat a team with 13 or more wins. The Bucs face the Saints away after their bye week, so expect a rejuvenated Bucs team to take this contest. Five of the Bucs’ final 7 games are on the road, but luckily, that includes both games against the Panthers, a Titans team that will either not have CJ, or will have Jake Locker under centre (no way the Titans agree to pay up until Hasselbeck goes down), and a Jaguars team that could likewise see Blaine Gabbert starting. The final game of the season will probably be the deciding factor in who gets the fifth and who gets the sixth seed in the playoffs (yeh, that’s right, I said it. Three NFC South teams in the playoffs in 2011 – it would have happened last year but for a bad refereeing call) and should be one of the best games you will see next year, of any team.

Prediction: 11-5

- Gur Samuel (@FredThePuppy)

And It's Go Go Go!

2011-03-25T13:22:00.000-07:00

After one of the most hotly contested seasons in memory Formula One is back, but not quite as we knew it. Rules and regulations often change in F1, but never quite in the obvious and exciting way they have this winter.

Adjustable rear wings, Kinetic Energy Recover Systems (KERS) and a new tyre provider have all been introduced meaning that the Australian Grand Prix on Sunday morning (7am start, BBC 1) could be one of the most dramatic in recent memory.

Lets go through these changes and how they'll affect the racing before taking a look at the drivers who will be fighting for the silverware.

Rear Wing

The adjustable rear wing has been bought in to the replace the now banned F-duct system that stalled the drag caused by the rear wing down the straights. In practice and qualifying, for now, it is can be freely used, something Williams technical director Sam Michael says could be worth half a second a lap. In races however the use of it is carefully legislated. It will only be allowed to be used at certain points on the track and when a car is less than a second behind the one in front. It will also not be allowed during the first two laps.

The hope is that it will increase the overtaking chances in a race but there has been some resistance to it both among the drivers and the fans. The worry is that will take too much away from driver ability and make overtaking too easy. And the fact that only the trailing car can use the device it could lead to a leap frog affect where we see two cars passing each other at the same spot lap after lap, each one unable to create the 1 second gap needed to nullify the benefit of the adjustable wing.

KERS

KERS was first seen on the track in 2009 but only used by some teams. A gentleman’s agreement was in place banning it in 2010 but teams are once again free to use the device which provides a power boost of approximately 80 bhp by recovering wasted heat energy in the braking process.

The system itself weighs 35 kg, and like in 2009 some teams will be loath to add the extra weight. F1 cars tend to come in around 70kg under the weight limit, meaning they place ballast around the car. This allows the manipulation of the balance and weight distribution of the car. A team running KERS will have less ballast, and therefore less ability to change the balance if something is off.

Tyres

F1 has switched tyre provider for 2011. Bridgestone withdrew and Pirelli has stepped in as the sole manufacturer this year. During their own winter tests the new Pirelli rubber was shown to have a much higher rate of degredation to the old Bridgestones. This lead to fears that we would see races involving four or five pit stops. Ferrari boss Stefano Domenicali stated that in a race simulation in Barcelona they found 4 stops to be optimum.

These fears have somewhat been put at ease during the practices in Australia this week, with Force India driver Adrian Sutil stating that the tyres were lasting much better in practice. Pirelli boss Paul Hembery confirmed that, as expected, their rubber is working better in the warmer temperatures of Australia.

Teams are learning more and more about the tyres with every lap they complete. Tactical decisions during the race are not expected to be simple or consistent on Sunday. Sutil stated he sees 2 stops as a possibility, but the belief is 3 might be the way to go for the front runners.

Contenders

So who are we expecting to see at the front this year? Defending champion Sebastian Vettel returns with last years constructors champions Red Bull Racing. Vettel signed a new contract this winter that will keep him there through 2014 and is estimated to pay the young German around the £9million a year mark. Mark Webber, so close to the title himself in 2011, rides in the sister Red Bull and is on home soil for the first race of the season.

Red Bull’s technical maestro Adrian Newey stated earlier that the new RB7 could be as much as half a second a lap faster than the Ferrari’s, which would be a continuation of the superiority shown last year.

The Ferrari’s, as ever, are expected to be up at the top of the grid again. Fernando Alonso came very close to robbing Red Bull of its maiden drivers title and only a tactical blunder in the last race in Abu Dhabi prevented the Spaniard taking his third F1 crown. As a result Chris Dyer was replaced by Pat Fry as head of race track engineering after Dyer brought Alonso in to cover Webber rather than leaving him out to battle against then race leader Vettel.

2^nd driver Felippe Massa did not look like himself for a lot of 2010 and was controversially ordered aside to let Alonso win in Germany. The ban on team orders has been lifted for 2011 and I’d be highly surprised if we didn’t see a repeat of this. That will however be much harder to justify if Massa can show strong early season form and return to the driver he was before his freak accident.

The McLarens of British Duo Jenson Button and Lewis Hamilton were expected to be slightly behind the other two constructors once again. But after dropping a complicated new exhaust component they found some extra performance and topped the time charts at the end of second practice. McLaren were left behind by midseason developments from Red Bull and Ferrari in 2010, much to the annoyance of Hamilton and Button. The Woking based outfit will have to work hard to ensure a similar scenario doesn’t unfold again.

One contender who will not be lining up on the grid for the start of the season, and probably the entirety of 2011 is Pole Robert Kubica. The Renault driver had been rubbing shoulders with the big boys at the end of last year, finding pace that no one had expected from his car. Unfortunately during a rally in February Kubica crashed and suffered severe injuries that required seven hours of emergency surgery and a further 2 operations. A promising career has been put on hold, and it’s possible he will be not able to race again in F1.

New Brit On The Scene

Paul di Resta, from Livingston, Scotland was promoted from Test Driver to the 2^nd race seat with Force India for the 2011 season. Di Resta, 24, replaces Antonio Liuzzi after good showings during practice in 2010 and having seen success at every level of racing he’s competed in. In 2006 di Resta beat team-mate and now F1 champion Sebastian Vettel to the Formula 3 Euroseries championship, that should give you some idea of the talents of the man.

The Outcome?

So who’s coming away as 2011 champion? It would be foolish to discount anyone from the top 3 teams outright before a lap is completed but Massa is certainly the least likely of those 6 to be crowned come the end of November. Fernando Alonso is clearly Ferrari’s number one, and if he’s even slightly in the hunt they’ll back him to the hilt.

I’m sure I’m not the only one saying that I hope Mark Webber wins. He’s the only one of the other 5 guys without a world title and the one closest to retirement. He’s a great guy and would be a worthy winner too.

However the favourite would be Vettel, just ahead of Alonso. Vettel is in the best car (for now) and suffered mechanical failures that stopped him romping away with the championship. Alonso is simply unflappable. He drove a weaker Ferrari so hard last year he was favourite going into the last race. The two-time champion never seems to get rattled and Ferrari work hard to make sure their number 1 can win.

The Brits? They’re suffering from a weaker car and an even playing field in house. McLaren won’t back one over the other until they absolutely have to, which gives Alonso a step on them and the Red Bull’s, even on the surface, have the car advantage over them.

So settle in and sit back. It’s going to be a rollercoaster seven months.

Djokovic Dazzles As Murray Is Defeated

2011-01-30T06:39:00.000-08:00

It was his best chance yet.

Andy Murray had seen the big guns from his half of the draw drop by the way-side while he progressed. Then defending champion Roger Federer fell in the semi-final. The opportunity to take his first Grand Slam title was there for all to see. But could he take it?

The opening salvo was one of brutally powerful ground strokes. Each game was hotly contested but it stayed on serve, both Novak Djokovic and Murray gave no inch. At 5-4 down Murray had to serve to stay in the 1^st set, but Djokovic clicked up a gear. At 15-30 Murray hit what would normally have been several winners only to see the Serb return them with venom and take the point after a 38 stroke rally. He was then able to get the first break of the day and take the 1^st set.

After that moment Murray’s head seemed to drop, while Djokovic continued with the sort of play that had so comprehensively dismissed every one of his previous opponents. The Serb raced to a 5-0 lead and Murray was a broken man. A small revival at the end of the 2^nd set seemed to reignite Murray’s competitive fire, and despite raising his game in the 3^rd set Djokovic was simply too much for him, taking his second Australian Open title 6-4, 6-2, 6-3.

For Murray it was a horrible case of déjà vu. Having lost a US Open final and last years Australian Open final to Roger Federer he would have gained confidence from not seeing the swizz standing on the opposite side of the net. Instead he was matched up against a brick wall.

Djokovic’s movement and his ability to turn defence into attack in an instant was the real difference in this match. The Serb was a blur as he ran down shots that would normally be winners and frustrated Murray in the early going, forcing the Briton to push the boundaries and play more and more quality shots.

It was a tempo and a level that Murray simply couldn’t keep up. Djokovic played with the kind of swagger and performance usually only seen from Rafael Nadal at the French Open throughout the tournament, dropping just one set in 2 weeks down under. It was play for which none had answers and could only question whether Djokovic had finally made the move up to consistently challenge Nadal and Federer, who had won 21 of the previous 23 Grand Slams between them.

As for Murray, he has a long flight home to reflect on another “almost” trip down-under. The worry is that despite 3 final appearances he is yet to win a set. And while he’s not collapsed or looked out of his depth in any he has been simply out-played, and the thought buzzing around his head must be: “Will I ever win?”.

While Federer is in the twilight of his career Nadal is just a year older than Murray and Djokovic is the same age as him. These guys are not going away any time soon and though Murray has shown he is capable of beating them elsewhere on the Tour when it comes to Grand Slams there is still a hurdle to jump.

Few doubt Murray has the talent to continue challenging for a long time, but something needs to change. His first serve percentage was in the low 50’s all day, giving Djokovic far too many opportunities. The Serb racked up 17 break points in the match and you simply cannot give even an average tour player that many chances.

During the post-match presentations and speeches both players were very complimentary of one another, with Djokovic saying: “Hopefully you will have another chance to win a Grand Slam trophy and, with your talent, I’m sure you will.”

Andy must be sick of hearing that by now.

Championship Games Picks and Previews

2011-01-22T05:42:00.000-08:00

Crunch time in the NFL. The conference titles are up for grabs and a trip to Dallas is the dream. Last week saw another big upset as the New York Jets backed up all their talk and won in Foxboro after totally out playing New England.

It’s the Packers however, who are the hot team at the moment after dominating in the Georgia Dome and look like the powerhouse I, and a lot of analysts, thought they’d be in the pre-season. However they now have to make another trip to Soldier Field and face their rivals Chicago. It’s only the 2^nd post season meeting between these 2 sides.

The Jets also return to Heinz Field where they won in week 15 to face a Pittsburgh side chasing it’s 7^th superbowl title and what would be their 3^rd since 2005.

So let’s break it down. No spread picks at the start this time. It’ll keep a bit of suspense….

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

Chicago wins 20-17 @ Soldier Field – Week 3

Green Bay wins 10-3 @ Lambeau – Week 17

These two fan bases hate each other. The players? Not so much. There’s been none of the vitriol and hatred we saw last week with the intra divisional match ups, and it’s kind of nice to see. These are two squads that have a mutual respect for one another and how they each play the game.

During the season they split the series, both winning at home. Which you’d think gives the Bears an edge. Especially when you consider that was the early season, jittery Bears and not the balanced winners they are now. But it’s not like Green Bay aren’t used to the conditions a January game in Chicago can bring. They play on their own frozen tundra over in Wisconsin after all. And at the moment the Packers are hot enough to melt any snow that might fall in the Windy City.

So if the conditions aren’t much of an advantage just how do the Bears beat this juggernaut? It starts with tackling. Last week Atlanta were able to get pressure on Aaron Rodgers without bringing extra blitzers, which is a good sign for Chicago. It’s just Rodgers was escaping the pressure and avoiding would-be tacklers like could foresee what they were going to do. Chicago will need to rush with discipline off the edge and not get too deep in the back field on the outside. It should also help that defensive tackle Tommie Harris has been playing much better recently, inside pressure is one of the best ways to knock a quarterback out of rhythm. But it’s not like Rodgers is bad when throwing on the move or running. The coverage down field is going to have to be excellent all day.

On the other side of the ball Jay Cutler is going to have his work cut out. The Green Bay defense has been excellent recently and in the week 17 game held Chicago without a touchdown, ok they didn’t have to win that game, but the Bears were playing their starters and going all out to stop their rivals getting into the post season. They failed, and now have to reap the consequences. The Packers are strong across the board on defense and will press the Bears on every down. So where do they get their points from? Chicago have a balanced offense, they can run the ball and have a deep passing attack. There’s no definite #1 receiver either for Tramon Williams to tail so defensive coordinator Dom Capers will have to pull out a plan to cover the speed of Knox, Hester and even Tight End Greg Olsen.

The main advantage Chicago holds is on special teams. Their return men of Devin Hester and Daniel Manning give the Bears great field position and are a threat every time they get the ball. In week 3 Green Bay gave Hester a chance on punt return, and he punished them with a touchdown. They can’t do this again or the same result is inevitable.

I have a gut feeling about Chicago in this one though. They’re a home underdog, which you very rarely see in the play-offs and for a good reason. The last one? Seattle against New Orleans. And we all know how that played out. Chicago has also had a good rest and then a tune up game vs the Seahawks last week that was really over by half time. Green Bay on the other hand have had 2 road games and been in “must win” mode for a long time now. Keeping up that physical and mental state is extremely difficult. They looked fantastic against a rather shell shocked Falcons team and everyone is backing them to blow out the Bears. But these games are always close, and in a close game the crowd starts to play a bigger factor.

The Bears defense is designed to stop the big play while crushing even good running games and Rodgers is yet to have a big day against them. If there’s one thing these play-offs have told us is that the consensus pick is never the sure thing it seems.

Prediction:- Bears 23 – Packers 17

New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers

New York wins 22-17 @ Heinz Field – Week 15

The Jets had the perfect game plan for their upset win in New England last weekend and executed it brilliantly, but they’ll need a completely new defensive plan to bet the Steelers and I think it begins with attacking the very frail Pittsburgh offensive line. There have been so many injuries and changes to that line that they are very thin there and if the Jets can mix up their blitzes and keep their front 7 fresh with good rotation then I can see the Steelers OL giving up a lot of pressure in the second half.

As for the Jets coverage. The mix of interior low zones and outside man coverage that blanketed the Patriots so well won’t work here. I can see Darrelle Revis, who is playing lights out football again after a slow start to the season, taking care of Hines Ward as he did in their meeting during the regular season (2 catches for 34 yards) and then Antonio Cromartie going on the big play guy Mike Wallace. This fits better than having Revis on Wallace because Cromartie has a history of doing better against flat out speed guys rather than covering the quick underneath stuff that Ward runs.

As for the Steelers, the biggest change from the week 15 game is that Troy Polamalu will play this one. Mark Sanchez was a perfect 9 of 9 throwing between the numbers, and this is where the long haired beast lives. Polamalu is a game changer of the highest calibre on defense, and while I don’t think he’s 100% healthy at the moment he’s much better than anyone else the Steelers can put back there.

So how does this game play out? The Jets have been limiting Mark Sanchez’s impact on their games recently, and while he made good throws last week he was helped by fantastic plays on the touchdowns by his receivers. I think we see a lot of LaDanian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene carrying the ball in this one. It’ll be important for the Jets to keep changing them up against this #1 ranked rushing defense. One of the biggest battles will be Jets centre Nick Mangold against the Steelers nose tackle Casey Hampton. They’re both heading to the Pro Bowl this season and unlike Vince Wilfork last week Hampton will not be moved across the line so much, he’ll stay dead centre and make Mangold face him on every snap.

In week 15 the Jets scored points on a kick-off return for a touchdown (rare), a safety (rare) and a fantastically performed naked bootleg that the Steelers will not be biting on again. So I’m not sure where the Jets points really come from this time around. Brad Smith, who scored the return TD, wasn’t fit to play last week, and Polamalu is back. But then I can’t really see how the Steelers can do anything on offense this week either. So I’m going to pick Pittsburgh to cover the -3.5 spread. Why?

Because I trust Roethlisberger more than I do Sanchez. You can call me a bitter Pats fan if you want (which is totally accurate) but any sane thinking NFL follower should think the same. And for me that’s what this game comes down to. We’ve got 2 fantastic defenses squaring off, which offense can survive the best and which QB can hang in there and make plays. In Ben I Trust.

Prediction:- Steelers 17 – Jets 10

Divisional Round Picks and Previews

2011-01-15T07:53:00.000-08:00

So last week wasn’t great for me, but at least I’m not Gregg Williams. The New Orleans defensive coordinator got completely out-coached last weekend in possibly the biggest upset since the Giants won Superbowl 42 against New England. The Jets got one over on Indianapolis after Jim Caldwell morphed into Andy Reid and called a crazy time-out to help the Jets on their way to a last second field goal. The Ravens forced 5 turnovers against Kansas and routed them, running nearly twice the offensive plays that the Chiefs did. While the Packers out-played Philly for the most of the game but ended up needing a last minute interception in the endzone from the impressive Tramon Williams.

All this leaves us with 2 intra divisional battles in the AFC and 2 repeat games in the NFC. So let’s get down to it, home team in Caps…

Baltimore Ravens (+3) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS (Saturday 9pm, Sky Sports 4)

A match not for the faint of heart. These two teams HATE each other. Their last 4 games have been won by a field goal, so I’m taking the points here given just how close these two teams are.

The match up will really come down to which offensive line and quarterback plays the best going against the monstrous defense both franchises have complied. Football outsiders (the kings of NFL stats) has Pittsburgh ranked 1 and Baltimore 3 for team defense. Pittsburgh’s offensive line has been an injury-riddled mess all year, but Roethlisberger is possibly the best quarterback in the league for extending plays, fighting off sacks and keeping his eyes down field throughout.

As for Baltimore, their offensive line, and particularly left tackle Michael Oher, didn’t have the best game last week against Kansas. Flacco got hit a lot and took 4 sacks, so they can be vulnerable to the Pittsburgh front 7.

In their last match up Troy Polamalu came up with the biggest play in the 4^th quarter, and the Steelers have had a bye week for him and a few others to get healthy which is vitally important.

Last week the Ravens front 7 looked a bit slow, although it was against Jamaal Charles. But the Steelers have their own pocket rocket in wide receiver Mike Wallace to take advantage of that. Wallace might be the best big-play receiver in football. In the 2 regular season games between these 2 he was held to 100 yards and 0 touchdowns which is fantastic, but if Roethlisberger gets time even Ed Reed might not be able to get in the way of Mike Wallace.

These teams won their away fixture against each other in the regular season so home field seems to count for little here too. This will be a tight one all the way.

Prediction:- Steelers 24 – 20 Ravens. But could very easily be the reverse of this.

Green Bay Packers (+2.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS (Sunday 1am, Sky Sports 4)

Green Bay are the sexy team in the NFC. But this pick goes beyond their popularity and column inches. Green Bay’s defense is playing at a very high level at the moment (2^nd on Footballoutsiders.com) while James Starks exploded out of the shadows to gain over 100 yards against the Eagles.

These two sides met in a very close match at the Georgia Dome in week 12 which Atlanta won 20-17. So why do I think this will be any different? In that game Aaron Rodgers was Green Bay’s leading rusher getting 51 yards and a TD on 12 carries. Now unless you’re the Eagles this is not a great recipe for success in a road game, Rodgers also fumbled on the goal line (the only turnover of the game.). Green Bay are playing a much higher level of football right now than back in week 12, whereas I feel that Atlanta are playing slightly worse.

The Falcons last had a competitive game in week 16 when they played the Saints at home and basically threw the win away by playing conservative, play-not-to-lose football. They’ve had a long time to rest up and reflect on that defeat and should be much more positive in their play this week.

The Falcons offense is designed to lull you to sleep. Michael Turner has been pounding the ball a lot this season, and his 1371 yards looks mighty impressive, he’s gone at just 4.1 yards a carry, his lowest as a Falcon. With Turner plodding along the importance of the passing game increases. Which would be fine if Matt Ryan had a target other than Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. I’ve been pretty impressed by Ryan, but in Atlanta’s 2 losses White was held to 9 catches and 1 touchdown. You take away his only outside threat and the offense as a whole will struggle.

Green Bay’s counter to White is one of the best emerging cover corners in the game, Tramon Williams. If you don’t recognise the name you won’t be the only one. In a defense where headlines are split between Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson, Williams goes about his business in a very affective way. His play this year is part of the reason for their number 1 ranked pass defense. So if Williams can get the best of White the Falcons will struggle to move the ball, especially as that will free up Charles Woodson to attack the line of scrimmage much more.

On the defensive side for Atlanta they are going to need big games from their pass rush specialists. And the defensive line as a whole. They have a number of guys on there doing a great job and getting little recognition such as Jonathan Babineaux and Jamaal Anderson, but a performance here will get them some attention.

The Falcons secondary has looked patchy at times despite the improved play from Brent Grimes and Green Bay have a myriad of wide receivers who Aaron Rodgers trusts and should be able to get open. If the Packers can maintain the balanced offense of a week ago I can’t see them losing.

Prediction:- Green Bay 27 – 21 Atlanta

CHICAGO BEARS (-10) over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 5.30pm, Sky Sport 2)

Can it really happen again? Last week Seattle stunned everyone by upsetting the defending champions. This week they travel to Chicago, where they won in week 6 23-20. However that was against a very different Bears team. Since then they’ve sorted out the offensive line woes that saw Seattle rack up 6 sacks of Cutler in that game and become more balanced on offense.

Jeremy Bates, Seattle’s offensive coordinator, called the game of his life on Saturday. Everything he touched turned to gold, but that’s unlikely to happen against this Bears defense. Chicago’s 4-3 defense plays with 2 deep safeties and often has middle linebacker Brian Urlacher dropping back deep as well. They don’t have to blitz to generate pressure on the quarterback either like New Orleans do so Matt Hasselbeck won’t see many blitzes. Instead his day will be spent trying to avoid Julius Peppers, one of the best pass rushers in the NFL today.

Chicago’s defensive philosophy is all about preventing the big play, something that Seattle lived on against the Saints. This means we’re very unlikely to see a repeat of the 41 points the Seahawks put up last week.

The Bears offense has been more balanced recently and the offensive line has been better, but you wouldn’t call it a strength. Jay Cutler has taken 52 sacks this year and when hit early has looked skittish and anxious in the pocket. He has however got a knack for extending plays with his feet, but also for untimely interceptions. One or two early hits and a bad throw could swing this back towards Seattle.

The other key battle in this game is special teams. 2 of the best return men in the NFL are Devin Hester of Chicago and Leon Washington in Seattle. So watch for both teams to punt to the edges and play it safe on kick offs. An early return touchdown could swing momentum decisively one way or another.

I just can’t see Seattle pulling this one out without their famous 12^th man crowd who registered on the richter scale during Marshawn Lynch’s incredible touchdown run last week. But Pete Carroll has done a fantastic job motivating his players. They believe they can do it even if no one else does.

Prediction:- Chicago 31 – 17 Seattle

New York Jets (+8.5) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (Sunday 9pm, Sky Sports 2)

Rex Ryan is talking. A lot. He’s determined to try and get inside the head of Bill Belichick and the Patriots this week. But it’s something that just isn’t going to happen. Ryan and the Jets very much have “little man” syndrome in this rivalry. The Patriots have 3 superbowls, 4 AFC Championships and 8 AFC East division titles in the last 10 years. The Jets? Well the fact that 2^nd year quarterback Mark Sanchez took the record for most post-season wins by a Jets QB last week with his 3^rd should give some indication of their franchise’s success.

As a result Ryan is talking up his team, his talents and his chances. On December 6^th these two teams met in Foxboro for what was dubbed the battle for #1 in the AFC. It wasn’t a battle for long. New England destroyed the Jets 45-3. They picked off Sanchez 3 times and routed the Jets. It was an embarrassment for them and one that Rex Ryan will have been studying ever since.

I don’t for a moment think that New England can repeat that score line. It was a perfect storm kind of game where everything came together for them, and fell apart for the Jets.

For New England to win they simply have to do what they’ve been doing most of the year. Not turn the ball over, keep the defense guessing, and make a few plays on defense themselves. The Patriots use of personnel packages is the best in the league. They can come out in 5 wide or 3 tight ends or 2 backs and run any play they want depending on what match ups you show them. They can even line up with rookie TE’s Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski in the traditional role one play, and then on the next play flex them out like wide receivers. It creates matchup problems like nothing seen before. Personally I think the Jets will have to treat Hernandez like a WR and keep a cornerback on him, but even that might not work.

Tom Brady spreads the ball out extremely effectively as well, which will negate the Jets best player Darrelle Revis, who is a shutdown corner of the highest calibre. In the week 2 game which New York won an injured Revis was stationed on Randy Moss and did a good job (mostly) in taking away the deep threat. Since then the Patriots offense has evolved into the Hydra of the NFL. They have so many weapons and so many ways to beat you that it’s impossible to defend all of them.

As for the Jets offense. I they make Sanchez throw it 25+ times they’ll struggle. He’s looked REALLY dodgy recently and was sailing passes over his receivers heads all day against Indy last week. While the Jets dominated the second half of that game with their running and offensive line it was against a very weak Colts interior defense, and the interior is the Patriots strength. Vince Wilfork is as close as you can get to an immovable force in the NFL these days, and the NFL’s leading tackler in linebacker Jerod Mayo feeds off Wilfork’s ability to eat up blockers.

Sanchez will have to make more plays than his usual last minute lobs to Edwards and Holmes in this game to get back to the AFC Championship game for the 2^nd time in his career.

Prediction:- Patriots 24 – 17 Jets

Last week: 1-3

Wild Card Picks and Previews

2011-01-07T05:51:00.000-08:00

After an exciting, baffling and always intriguing regular season it’s time for the play-offs. We have 5 new teams from last year but only two of them (Seattle and Kansas City) are playing this week. The rest (Atlanta, Chicago and Pittsburgh) are all sat at home this weekend waiting to see who they’ll play. The road teams this week all have an equal or better record that their opponents, it might not be long before an alternate seeding system is used, but that’s for another day. For now, Home team in caps…

New Orleans Saints (-10.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (Saturday 9:30pm, Sky Sports 2)

We’ll start with the 1^st and easiest to call. At 7-9 the Seahawks are the first losing team to make the NFL play-offs. They scraped in with a win over St Louis in a terrible final game of the regular season. All their losses have come by 15 points or more, including a 34-19 loss to New Orleans in the Superdome back in week 11. Pete Carroll has named Matt Hasselbeck as the starter after he missed the week 17 win over St. Louis. It’s not too surprising but if he was too banged up to play that crucial game he’s not going to be in a good way come Saturday. And facing Gregg Williams’ blitz happy defense is rough at the best of times.

As for New Orleans, it’s been a bad week for them. Running Backs Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas were placed on IR this week which leaves them extremely thin in the back field. Drew Brees has been used to getting little support from the run game for a lot of the season and has still put up good numbers. He was able to hang 382 yards and 4 TDs on the Seahawks in week 11, but he did throw 2 INTs in that game and had a 99 yard performance from Ivory.

All in all we’re looking at an explosive vertical passing game going against the 27^th ranked pass defense here. It’ll take some almighty effort from the Seattle players, coaches and their famous 12^th man to overhaul the defending champs here.

Prediction: New Orleans 38 – 17 Seattle

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-2.5) over New York Jets (Sunday, 1:00am, Sky Sports 2)

Peyton Manning has long been Rex Ryan’s nemesis, from getting the best of Ryan's Baltimore defense to beating the Jets in the AFC Championship game last season. I don’t see it being any different here. Peyton has gotten back to his usual excellence since his mid-season blip. With Gary Brackett back at middle linebacker their run defense has improved which will help against the Greene-LT tandem.

The Jets live and die on their blitzing and the ability of their DB’s to play man to man coverage. But how long can they do this successfully against Manning? The book on Peyton is to beat him with coverage and a basic rush. If you blitz him regularly it’ll only be a matter of time before Peyton susses it out, changes the play, and burns you. Now Revis has the talent to shut Reggie Wayne down, and with no Austin Collie or Dallas Clark that match up will be huge. But I just can’t see the Jets D holding up against the Colts offense.

On the other side of the ball the key match-up really is Freeney and Mathis against the Jets play-action. If the 2 Pro-Bowl defensive ends can identify where the ball is and go after it then Mark Sanchez could have a horrible night back there. They’re really a vertical passing team now with Holmes and Edwards on the outside and so Sanchez will need time in the pocket. Freeney and Mathis have combined for 21 sacks this year and will terrorise him.

I see this game staying tight through the 2 and a half quarters, but then the Colts pulling away.

Prediction: Indianapolis 35 – 26 New York

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+3) over Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, 5:30pm, Sky Sports 2)

This is a gut feeling thing. The Chiefs pound the ball with Jones and then when you’re a bit worn out Jamaal Charles steps up and kills you. They average a league-leading 164.2 yards rushing a game. Now while the week 17 loss against Oakland is a worry, and put a blemish on their previously perfect home record it will hopefully serve as a wake-up call for Kansas. One problem for sunday is that Dwayne Bowe, who leads the league in receiving touchdowns, has missed a lot of practice time this week through illness. If he can’t go Baltimore will have no problems in crowding the line of scrimmage and making life hard on the running backs. With Bowe in the side they simply cannot do this.

The Ravens offense seems to have found an identity at last. They’ve done a lot of things this year but not been consistently good with the ball. The last few weeks they’ve been getting Ray Rice more touches and good things have been happening. Look for a lot of him in this game, he’s second on the team in receptions too. I expect Brandon Flowers, Kansas’ premier cornerback, to work mostly against Boldin. But they’d do well to shift him over to Derrick Mason on 3^rd down, he’s been Flacco’s safety net ever since he was drafted. He’s a precise route runner and lives outside the numbers, he’s a monster at getting to the sticks and will be key.

I think the Ravens just edge this one, but it will be very close. The Chiefs don’t seem to have the ability to play from behind, and so a good 1^st quarter is important. If they have to start airing it out, and if Bowe isn’t fit, then they’re in trouble.

A big question mark is how the Kansas offense will function now that co-ordinator Charlie Weis has agreed to take up the same position at Florida next season. Personally i'm not too worried about this. In 2004 Weis accepted the Notre Dame Head Coach position in the middle of New England's play-off push and it didn't affect their play at all. While it doesn't bode well for Kansas next season i think they're still going to be an offensive force in this one.

Prediction: Baltimore 26 – 24 Kansas City

Green Bay Packers (+3) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (Sunday 9:00pm, Sky Sports 2)

The tightest game of the weekend. These 2 teams played each other in week 1 but Vick only entered that game after an injury to then starter Kevin Kolb and the Eagles were well behind at the time. Since then there’s been a whole raft of injuries on both teams and neither come into this game with what they’d describe as a 1^st team.

The main question for this game is how healthy is Vick? He took a pounding in their loss against Minnesota and then sat out of the week 17 game to rest up. But his play has been declining at the tail end of this season. He’s started making some bad decisions that made him look like the Vick we knew in Atlanta more than the stunning Eagles player. The Packers might have the best defense to cope with Vick’s talents. They tackle well at all levels and are very disciplined and the pass rush from Matthews to cause problems.

On the other side expect to see a lot of passing. Aaron Rodgers has had a great season, posting the 3^rd highest QB rating this year, all without a proper running threat. The Eagles like to bring pressure from all sorts of different places, but watch out for Trent Cole the Right End. He doesn’t get as much mainstream media exposure as he deserves. He has 10 sacks this year and is a pass rusher that every QB and Left Tackle fears.

Given the high powered nature of both offenses this is one game you shouldn’t miss. But there’s no guarantee of points. Both defenses have the ability to smother the opposition.

Prediction: Green Bay 28 – 24 Philadelphia

NFL Week 16 Picks and Previews

2010-12-23T13:05:00.000-08:00

Last week was officially the week of special teams. DeSean Jackson, Tyjuan Hagler, Dan Connolly and Devin Hester all made great return plays to help their team to wins. Atlanta, Chicago, New England and Pittsburgh have wrapped up a play-off spot. With bye weeks and home field on the line though I don’t expect these sides to relent. A shorter preview this week, it’s Christmas time in case you didn’t realise and the family are over tomorrow. This has meant getting the house ship-shape and less time for NFL. Home team in caps…

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-14) over Carolina Panthers (Friday 1:30am, Sky Sports)

The Steelers have yet to wrap up the AFC North so they’ll be going all out for the win. But as last week showed the lack of Troy Polamalu in the secondary severely limits what they can do on defense. Jimmy Clausen looked better for Carolina last week with his job possibly on the line already. The rookie can’t survive in such a high pressure environment for long, as will be shown by the Steelers defense.

Dallas Cowboys (-7) over ARIZONA CARDINALS (Sunday 1:30am, Sky Sports)

Dallas nearly threw it away against Washington last week when those defensive issues reared its ugly head again. Arizona are in a mess and finally out of the play-off hunt. Expect Christmas day fireworks on one side of the ball at least. Dallas have the ability to score quickly however, even without rookie hot shot Dez Bryant on the outside

Detroit Lions (+3.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS

Miami is 1-6 at home this year while Detroit are riding high on back to back wins and snapped their horrible winless streak on the road last week. The Lions actually look like they could compete in the NFC North next year if they can improve their offensive line and get one or two more playmakers in the defense. Miami meanwhile look like a team in trouble. They have a defense capable of terrorizing the opposition but an offense unable to take advantage of it. They could well look to replace QB Chad Henne in the offseason and get younger at runningback.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-7) over Washington Redskins

Jacksonville no longer control their own fate after last weeks lose to Indy, but they should do well against a ‘Skins team in dissary. The benching of McNabb last week could spell the end of his brief career in Washington despite the big extension they handed him. But given the QB situation in places like Arizona and Carolina i can see teams picking him up if he's not in the capital.

ST LOUIS RAMS (-2.5) over San Francisco 49ers

Bradford looks to have hit the rookie wall, which isn’t good for the Rams playoff hopes. He’s thrown 0 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in the last 3 weeks. San Fran can still make it in but will need to win out and a Seattle loss. The NFC West ladies and gentlemen!

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-6) over Seattle Seahawks

A little unsure about this pick. The Bucs haven’t really blown anyone away this year and suffered a lot of injuries recently. But the Seahawks suck on the road, Matt Hasselbeck looks awful, and so does his backup Charlie Whitehurst. Bucs are 3-0 vs the rest of the NFC West and love to beat bad teams, so let’s go Josh Freeman!

New England Patriots (-7.5) over BUFFALO BILLS

Tom Brady now has 292 pass attempts without an interception, but in the last 2 weeks there have been some stone-cold drops from opposing defenses. He also has the flu. Quite how this will affect his playing status on Sunday, or possibly spread through the team, is unclear.

CHICAGO BEARS (-1) over New York Jets

Gut feeling on this one. The Bears looked good Monday night against the Vikings in chilly conditions, while the Jets played well against the Steelers. While Chicago have wrapped up their division they’re still in a race for a bye week and need a win. Their defense plays the run well and will force Sanchez to win the game. I don’t think he can.

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS

Baltimore been susceptible to the run more than usual but I think they’ll confuse and agitate Colt McCoy. Cleveland are a hard working team but lack the quality to compete with a team on the level Baltimore are. That said, they’ve pulled out surprising victories already this season, I wouldn’t be shocked if they do here.

KANSAS CIY CHIEFS (-5) over Tennessee Titans

Matt Cassel is one tough man. 10 days after an appendectomy he took to the field and looked good against the Rams. Tennessee are a tougher team however, and will no doubt look to get early hits on Cassel. The Titans O took off against Houston last week (not hard), much harder to go to Arrowhead and play well these days.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) over OAKLAND RAIDERS

Indy held Jacksonville to just 3 yards a carry last week, aided by the return of middle linebacker Gary Brackett. Next comes Darren McFadden. Peyton Manning is looking back to his normal self but WR Austin Collie has been put on IR after sustaining a second concussion, once more reducing Manning’s weapons. Biggest battle will be between Nnamdi Asomugha and Reggie Wayne on the outside, two of the best at the best in the bizz going toe to toe.

DENVER BRONCOS (NL) over Houston Texans

Tim Tebow getting his second start of the season. He looked ok last week in Oakland but only completed 50% of his passes. This should get better this week in a friendly Mile High stadium against the worst pass D in the league. As for Houston, they’re a bit of a mess right now, the offense is ticking along but is unable to make up for the troubles on D. Gary Kubiak could be gone sooner rather than later.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3) over New York Giants

Two last second defeats, two contrasting feelings for these teams. Giants gave up 28 points in 7:28 to lose to the Eagles while Matt Flynn had a great game for the first 55:30 against New England before messing up a 4^th down play that cost the Pack on a drive to win the game. Aaron Rodgers is expected to be back which should boost them against a tough Giants pass rush. Tom Coughlin verbally baratted punter Matt Dodge on the field after he punted to Jackson in the closing seconds, but the coaches and play calling ought to take a lot of the blame for last weeks defeat, I don’t see the Giants making the post season now.

San Diego Chargers (-7.5) over CINCINNATI BENGALS

No Owens puts more pressure on Carson Palmer against a stout D that has to win. Rivers has his big target Vincent Jackson back, who is going to put on a show before he enters free agency in the off season.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-14) over Minnesota Vikings (Monday 1:30am, Channel 4)

There’s definitely going to be no surprise start for Favre this week after getting drilled into the turf again. This season has been a lesson in “Me me me!” football from the old timer and I won’t be sorry to see the back of him. Rookie Joe Webb looked ok against Chicago and was extremely mobile in the pocket. QB's scrambling everywhere in this one!

ATLANTA FALCONS (-2.5) over New Orleans Saints (Tuesday 1:30am, ESPN)

Huge game. Atlanta clinches the division and Home Field advantage with a win, the Saints need to bounce back quickly to ensure they make the post season. Drew Brees is tied for the lead in TD passes, but has 19 INT’s, too many when the team relies so heavily on him.

Last Week: 9-7

Coming soon: The illustrious Toby Durant end of year awards

Mercurial Johnson Brings Australia Back From The Brink

2010-12-17T02:22:00.000-08:00

Before play started on day 2 in Perth one Australian book maker had paid out for England retaining the Ashes to the tune of $400,000.

With Australia having been bowled out in the first day for just 268 you could see how one might consider this series a done deal already. Australia were in dire need of stellar opening session in the field to restore some sort of competitive element to this Ashes series. And oh boy did they get it.

Early on Andrew Strauss nicked one that flew between a stationary Brad Haddin at wicket keeper and 1^st slip, leaving a “here we go again” look on under-fire Ricky Ponting’s face.

England were rolling along to a handy 78 for no loss until the ball was handed to Mitchell Johnson. The talented but often infuriating Johnson put in one of the great spells of bowling in the morning session to pull Australia back into this Ashes series.

Suddenly things started to look like the Ashes of old. England wickets tumbled under the power of Johnson’s feisty swing bowling. The middle order was reduced to dust and left England in a precarious 98-5.

First to fall was the previously unflappable Alistair Cook who sent a thick edge into gully where Mike Hussey took a good low catch. Jonathan Trott came out to a rousing welcome from a still buoyant Barmy Army, confident in a man who does a better Geoffrey Boycott impression than anyone. But Trott looked suddenly lost in the middle, squirting balls through nervously through the slips before Johnson struck with a delightful ball that swung nastily back into Trott pads. Up went the finger and a bemused Trott was back off to the pavilion.

Johnson, who had been left out of the second test in Adelaide to rest and regain some conditioning, then quickly dismissed Pietersen and Collingwood with similar darting deliveries that swung back into the right handers, landing flush in the pads to the delight of the formally subdued Australian support.

Strauss meanwhile, who had been coping ok with Johnson, must have been worried by the rotating door of batting partners. The captain had moved nicely to his half century before Ryan Harris slanted a tempting one across the face of the England Captain, who nicked it to a delighted Haddin.

Johnson took his four wickets in 25 balls and gave up just 7 runs. Ian Bell and Matt Prior were pleased for the refuge of the Lunch break when it came.

Bell was the only man who really looked able to handle the pace, bounce and swing that Johnson and the Australian seamers threw at them. Prior ended up playing on after taking a short ball barrage. Graeme Swann was only able to hang around for so long before Harris struck with great line and length to find the edge.

With the deficit still a heavy one Bell felt the pressure of batting with the tail. He was able to get a few quick runs before edging Harris to Ricky Ponting at second slip for a hard fought 53. Bell looked very calm and organised in his play at the crease, lending weight to the voices calling for Bell to rise up the order.

The ever honest Geoffrey Boycott called Bell the most technically gifted player in England’s line up and I must agree. He never looked flustered under the bombardment Australia threw at him, and it can’t be long before he’s moved up to at least 5.

The tail was wrapped up by Harris and Johnson quickly, and what started out as a promising day progressed to a worryingly low 187 all out before tea. Giving a first innings margin of 81 to a suddenly confident Australia.

Shane Watson and Phil Hughes came out to a boisterous reception, ready to carry the momentum forward. They began to fill their boots early. Mostly off a wayward Stephen Finn. However it was Finn who would get the breakthrough, teasing Hughes into an unsteady flap of the bat outside his off stump and sending the ball safely into Collingwood’s arms. This bought the entrance of Ricky Ponting, no doubt sooner than he’d have wanted. But it wasn’t long until he was given his marching orders.

After just 9 balls Ponting flicked his bat at a Finn delivery behind his legs. There was the slightest of brushes of ball on glove and as Prior took the catch Ponting stood resolutely in the crease, refusing to walk as Umpire Doctrove’s finger stayed firmly down. Strauss called for the referral that exposed the nick and off went a despondent Ponting.

Michael Clarke had a brief flourish before dragging a cut stroke onto his own stumps from Tremlett. But the rocks of Australia’s batting line-ups have been Watson and Mike Hussey during this series, and again they provided for the hosts. An onslaught at the end of the day on a tired pace attack that is bowling for a second straight day boosted the Australian lead to 200 by stumps, for the loss of just 3 wickets.

The day belonged to Johnson, who finished with 6 for 38, and Australia. With 3 days left England will have a battle on their hands to get a result in this Test. The fight for the little urn is truly on now.

Week 15 picks and previews

2010-12-16T09:31:00.000-08:00

Last week was a horror story of back door covers and crazy performances, resulting in my worst weekly record. For that I can only apologise. One thing last week did prove however is that New England are the team to beat. They laid a beating on Chicago in blizzard-like conditions. Elsewhere around the league San Diego got a life-line as they pummelled the Brodie Croyle lead Chiefs and amazingly the 4-9 Arizona Cardinals aren’t yet eliminated from the play-off race. This week is full of elimination games and key clashes, so let’s get into it. Home team in caps…

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-9.5) over San Francisco 49ers (Friday 1am, Sky Sports 2)

San Diego got a break in facing Croyle and not Cassel last week. This week they face a 49ers team still in the hunt with Alex Smith at the helm. Smith put in a #1 pick performance at long last in his pounding of the Seahawks. But there’s a big difference between Seattle and San Diego. After last week’s win the Chargers are just a game back of the Chiefs and know one slip up will cost them. I can’t see this being anything other than a dominant San Diego win.

Prediction: Chargers 34 - 17 49ers

Kansas City Chiefs (+Cassel) over ST LOUIS RAMS

ST LOUIS RAMS (+Croyle) over Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas needs Cassel back. Brodie Croyle is now 0-10 as a starting QB and they were unable to do anything last week with him back there. Cassel is preparing like he’ll be starting which is a good sign, but you just don’t know how his body will cope if the Rams can get one or two early shots on him. As for the Rams, they got shown up in New Orleans and Bradford, for once, looked like a rookie. But there’s no shame in that.

Prediction: Chiefs 23 - 17 Rams

Houston Texans (+1.5) over TENNESSEE TITANS

There are so many logical reasons to reverse this pick. Tennessee have a whole 5 days longer to rest and prepare, Houston are dire against the pass and made the Ravens look like an offensive dream team on Monday night. The Texans won the 1^st meeting between these two but that was with Rusty Smith at QB for the Titans. I think I’ve just fallen for the Schaub-Foster-Johnson trifecta. And throw in a healthy Owen Daniels and I just can’t go against them with a team that, up until last week, had really struggled to put up points.

Prediction: Texans 31 - 26 Titans

Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

This pick is half hope, half belief. Maurice Jones-Drew would be in the MVP discussion if it wasn’t already over. He’s been running like a man possessed recently, and throw in Rashard Jenning’s 100 yard ground game last week and this is an offense designed to give the Indianapolis Colts nightmares. The Colts jumped out to an early lead last week and never really looked in trouble against the Titans, especially with the poor coaching going on at the end from Fisher. Manning can rack up the points and an early explosion from the Colts might just rattle Del Rio enough to put the game in David Garrard’s hands. Bad idea. However the Colts are prone to back door covers with that weak D. I’m taking the points.

Prediction: Jags 28 - 26 Colts

Arizona Cardinals (+3) over CAROLINA PANTHERS

The must-miss game of the week. I have no idea how Carolina can be giving 3 points to ANYONE. They are clearly the worst team in the league and checked out on this season a long time ago. Arizona at least showed some signs of live last week and are giving rookie QB John Skelton a chance. The Carolina QB’s have thrown 9 TD’s to their own guys, and 5 to the opposition. This is a team going nowhere fast and begging for a fresh start under new coaching.

Prediction: Cards 24 - 14 Panthers

Cleveland Browns (+1.5) over CINCINNATI BENGALS

Rookie Colt McCoy is back after missing the last 3 games with an ankle injury. After a year of saying how bad Palmer had been playing I went and picked him last week. Never again. The man is making bad reads and worse throws. McCoy’s return should reinvigorate an offense that was struggling under the direction of Jake Delhomme and will get more out of Peyton Hillis.

Prediction: Browns 27 - 17 Bengals

Buffalo Bills (+5.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS

What does 10 punts and 55 passing yards get you? A win if you’re the Miami Dolphins. Last week was a horror show for the offense against the Jets, but there aren’t many defenses you’d want to face when struggling more than Buffalo’s. The Bills have the offensive parts to compete if they can keep the monstrous Cameron Wake even vaguely under wraps, however that is a very tough assignment as Tackles across the NFL are finding. He’s a serious defensive player of the year candidate.

Prediction: Dolphins 23 - 19 Bills

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) over NEW YORK GIANTS

Yet more injuries for Philadelphia. Stewart Bradley suffered a nasty elbow injury that will keep him out for at least the rest of the regular season. Cornerback Asante Samuel missed his second game in a row. And yet the Eagles keep rolling behind their explosive offense and solid D. The Giants had one of the strangest weeks in the NFL, having been re-routed to Kansas City because of the snow storm in Minnesota before heading off to Detroit for a Monday game. All that travelling and uncertainty coupled with a short week and the beaten up receivers makes me doubt them here. And it’s not like Eli Manning is taking particularly good care for the football either.

Prediciton: Eagles 31 - 28 Giants

DALLAS COWBOYS (-6) over Washington Redskins

Dallas look capable of putting up points on pretty much any team at the moment. Washington however look incapable of doing much at all. They ran all over Tampa last week but couldn’t get into the endzone enough and ended up losing on a botched extra point. They’re not in a good place right now, the switch to 3-4 on defense has been a disaster, so has the Haynesworth move. Jason Garrett is putting together a good bid to get the permanent HC job with the Cowboys, but I still think Jerry Jones goes for a big name coach.

Predictions: Cowboys 36 - 17 Redskins

Detroit Lions (+5.5) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

The Lions are getting less credit then they deserve for beating Green Bay last week. Sure, Aaron Rodgers suffering a concussion changed the direction of the game but it wasn’t like the Packers were dominating on that side of the ball. The Lions D was handling Rodgers well before he went down. Against Tampa they’ll be facing a more balanced offense but one that has struggled to put up points recently. The Bucs also suffered more injuries, including to #3 pick Gerald McCoy. They’re fading from a surprising play-off push, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing for this team.

Prediction: Bucs 19 - 17 Lions

New Orleans Saints (+1.5) over BALTIMORE RAVENS

This is a very tough game to call. Both sides need a win to keep ahead of the pack and in-touch with their division leaders. The Ravens have struggled of late offensively, while the Saints have been racking up the points and playing much more like their ’09 championship selves. Drew Brees continues to throw picks though, and with Ed Reed back there those stray passes are likely to end up going the other way. This will be a very close game.

Prediction: Saints 27 - 24 Ravens

Atlanta Falcons (-6) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

A surprisingly low line. It’s Atlanta’s 3^rd straight road game and Qwest field is rarely an easy place to visit, but realistically the Falcons ought to win this comfortably. They play mistake free football and don’t turn it over. All of the Seahawks losses have been by double digits and I can’t see this one being any different.

Prediction: Falcons 37 - 10 Seahawks

New York Jets (+5.5) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS (Sunday 9pm, Sky Sports 4)

Am I really taking Mark Sanchez, on the road, against one of the best D’s in football? This doesn’t sit right with me at all. The Jets now haven’t scored a touchdown since their Thanksgiving game against Cincinnati and the offense was ugly against the Dolphins. Equally the Steelers are having their own offensive issues and are very much relying on the defense to put them in good position. This seems to be working as they’re on a 4 game winning streak, but against the blitz-happy Rex Ryan Pittsburgh’s patch work offensive line could well be exposed again, leaving Roethlisberger to take yet more hits.

Prediction: Steelers 17 - 14 Jets

OAKLAND RAIDERS (-6.5) over Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos are in a tail spin. Getting turned over like that by what had been a farcical Cardinals team last week has got to be worrying for interim coach Eric Studesville. The team seems thin on talent and motivation. The Raiders meanwhile were unable to capitalise on a great performance from Darren McFadden against the Jags, and will hope the 3^rd year running back can pull out another huge game.

Raiders 27 - 17 Broncos

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (NL) over Green Bay Packers (Monday 1.30am, Channel 4)

As if visiting Gillette stadium wasn’t daunting enough at the moment the Packers are preparing to field Matt Flynn in the wake of Aaron Rodgers’ second concussion of the season. And Green Bay’s visible lack of running game makes this road trip a terribly hard one. The New England Patriots are the form team in the NFL at the moment, having knocked off another serious contender last week. Tom Brady is playing better football now than during his record breaking 2007 season while their young defense is playing much better recently. Don’t expect the line to open until Saturday when a decision about Rodgers is made, but when it does it could be as high at Pats – 12. And at the moment you’d be hard pressed to find anyone who doesn’t think the Pats can get that.

Prediction: Patriots 35 - 17 Packers

Chicago Bears (NL) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS (Tuesday 1.30am, ESPN)

From one injured Quarterback Minnesota now have 2. Tavaris Jackson was placed on Injured Reserve today, leaving rookie Joe Webb as most likely to be under centre against a Bears D looking to re-establish itself. Meanwhile the Metrodome won’t be ready so the game will be hosted at University of Minnesota’s Gopher Stadium. The problem there is that the snow is 5 feet deep in places and they’re calling on fans to come over and lend a hand to get the stadium clear of snow. All this uncertainty plays to the Bears hands. After their struggles in the snow against New England Chicago will want to get back to the good football they were playing. There’s still a chance Chicago can claim a bye week for the play-offs, and their defense is good enough to cause a lot of havoc against an offense that will need to lean heavily on Adrian Peterson.

Prediction: Bears 25 - 13 Vikings

Last week: 5-10-1

NFL Week 14 Picks and Previews

2010-12-09T05:57:00.000-08:00

The dominant power in the AFC resides in Foxboro. New England’s 45-3 Monday Night victory over the Jets put them firmly in the driving seat for home field advantage in the play-offs. Elsewhere last week San Diego’s string of wins was halted by a resilient Oakland team that ran the ball incredibly well. The big story however was in Denver where 2^nd year head coach Josh McDaniels got shown the door. He’s good enough that he’ll get a coordinator job next season certainly and young enough that he’ll get a second chance to run a team somewhere. There are a few elimination games this week as teams can no longer afford to say “we’ll get it next week”. Sky Sports have decided to show the Red Zone Channel at 6pm instead of one of the games. This means you won’t miss any of the scores from the early games, a great thing for the NFL fan. Home team in caps.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) over TENNESSEE TITANS (Friday 1am, Sky Sports 1)

These are two teams on terrible form. The Titans haven’t scored an offensive touchdown in 15 quarters of football and murdered countless fantasy teams in the process (including mine). However they might not need the offense too much tonight. Peyton Manning has thrown 4 interceptions returned for touchdowns in the last 2 games. The perennial Pro-Bowler looks lost at the moment. He’s had little help at the moment from a pathetic running game and the lack of Dallas Clark is hurting a lot. Both teams cannot afford another defeat, but Manning usually steps up in primetime games so I’m backing him.

Cincinnati Bengals (+9) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS

The Bengals have started to play better of recent weeks but continue make silly errors, such as the offside jump against the Saints last week, that point towards a badly coached outfit. The Steelers battled to a crucial win in Baltimore last week after a fantastic play from Troy Polamalu. Their offensive line injuries are still a problem and have resulting in Ben Roethlisberger getting seriously banged up. His ankle injury has Big Ben looking extremely immobile which could be an issue.

Cleveland Browns (+1) over BUFFALO BILLS

Peyton Hillis should enjoy himself this week. The Bills have been giving up a whopping 170 yards a game on the ground. Colt McCoy’s return from injury is doubtful meaning Jake Delhomme will continue, and it will be important to keep the ball out of his hands as much as possible. Ryan Fitzpatrick could actually be the Quarterback of the next 5 years for Buffalo but a loss for them here, in the grand scheme of things, will be better for the 2-10 Bills. And with injuries along the offensive and defensive lines I think that could well be the outcome.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-4.5) over Oakland Raiders

The surprising AFC South leaders play host to a hot-and-cold Raiders team. These guys rank 2^nd and 3^rd in rushing attack so expect to see a heavy dose of the impressive Darren McFadden and Maurice Jone-Drew. However both sides have play poorly when having to rely on the passing game so if one side can jump out to a big lead the other is unlikely to be able to come back. Itwill be up to the head coaches Del Rio and Kable to stick with the game plan and keep the ball in the hands of their playmaking runners.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+1) over New York Giants

Brett Favre is hurt again. Shocker. The old man is breaking down and piling up the turnovers. While Tavaris Jackson, who came in for Favre last week, didn’t play brilliantly either his mobility in the back field helps greatly Thereturn to full health of WR Sidney Rice his huge for whoever plays QB for the Vikes on sunday. The Giants have gotten their running game going again with the 1-2 combo of Jacobs and Bradshaw just in time. They need to get a win here with tough games against Philly and Green Bay coming up. This will be a close game.

Green Bay Packers (-6.5) over DETRIOT LIONS

Green Bay cannot afford to lose this game with a trip to Foxboro coming up next week and a week 17 date against Chicago. Aaron Rodgers is in great form at the moment and should do well against a Detroit Lions team that has been playing teams close for 2 quarters a game, but can’t keep it up at the moment. The Lions aren’t far of becoming a respectable team again. If they can strengthen the offensive line over the next offseason their high pick skill players can actually show off their talents. This one will be close at the half, but the Packers should accelerate away in the 3^rd and 4^th quarters.

Atlanta Falcons (-7) over CAROLINA PANTHERS

The Atlanta Falcons have an extremely balanced on offense. They can run through you or pass over you at any point in unspectacular but efficient fashion. They had to come back against the Bucs last week on the road, proving this team is mentally tough too. They’re not far from locking up home field advantage. As for the Panthers… They had a 14 point lead against the Seahawks and couldn’t even come close to covering the + 6 last week. There’s no incentive to win, or even play well. Head Coach John Fox is out the door at the end of the season and the #1 pick in the draft is theirs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Tampa lost a tough one at home that puts them on the cusp of play-off elimination. They’ve also lost Centre Jeff Faine & cornerback Aqib Talib who was playing at a pro-bowl level. The Redskins however seem to have forgotten how to play football. The game last week against the Giants was a pathetic display, and one rarely seen in NFC East games. They’ve suspended Albert Haynesworth for the rest of the season in what looks like a scape-goat move. He’s been a pain sure but he’s not the reason this team is collapsing. The switch to a 3-4 defense hasn’t worked and the raft of minimum wage guys around McNabb doesn’t help him get the points needed to cover up the frailties of the D.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (NL) over Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday 9pm, Sky Sports 3)

Earlier this week the line was Chargers -6.5 but Kansas’ QB Matt Cassel, who’s been playing very well this year, had an apendectamy this week and is apparently 50% to play on Sunday. I was ready to jump all over the Chiefs + 6.5 but now I’m not going near them. Both of these teams misfired last week but the Chiefs were able to win and San Diego weren’t. As a result this is now an elimination game for the Chargers. The way Oakland were able to run the ball with ease has to be encouraging for Kansas, owners of the NFL’s best rushing game, but if Cassel can’t go San Diego should be free to load the box and clamp down on Jones and Charles. I expect this line to re-open around the SD -7/8 mark and will be taking them.

St. Louis Rams (+9.5) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

A possible wildcard match up here. The Rams have won back to back road games. But the Superdome is a much tougher challenge than the previous games. The New Orleans offense is firing but the D still needs some work. Bradford continues to impress but this will be the rookie’s first big road test against a noisy crowd that knows their team must win to have a chance at repeating. I think the Rams can keep it close though. They’re a tougher team than they once were.

Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

The NFC West (excluding St. Louis) can just go away. The Seahawks can’t decide if they’re a good, bad or indifferent team. In their last six games the winning margin has been at least 17 points. As for the 49ers, without Frank Gore to carry the load they’re going to struggle to create points. Head Coach Mike Singletary is handing the reins back to Alex Smith, who is still yet to prove he can do anything. Troy Smith has a much better stats line than Alex and his mobility gives an X-Factor this offense really needed but he’s now back to the bench. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him playing again this year though.

NEW YORK JETS (-5.5) over Miami Dolphins

The Jets will be out to make up for Monday’s humiliation in Foxboro. Rex Ryan will be after a much improved performance in all areas, not least from Mark Sanchez, whose faults were put on display for all to see Monday. The Dolphins are a changeable team. The defense, lead by NFL sack leader Cameron Wake, can be very disruptive but the offense is struggling a lot. The running game has been nowhere near what was expected while Chad Henne’s struggles could see the ‘Fins looking elsewhere for a starting QB next year. They’ll try hard to play spoiler to their divisional rivals but the Jets will have too much on the line to drop this one.

Denver Broncos (-5.5) over ARIZONA CARDINALS

Josh McDaniels is gone. Denver has turned to runningbacks coach Eric Studesville as interim Head Coach. We’ve seen Interim’s win their 1^st games in Dallas and Minnesota so I’m backing that trend. And 1st games don’t get much easier than going into Glendale. The Cardinals are in a mess and playing for the draft at the moment. They haven’t scored a touchdown in 2 games, and that was at the very end of being blown out by Kansas. While the defense is just disasterous. No one thought the subtraction of middle linebacker Carlos Dansby would lead to such a meltdown.

New England Patriots (-3) over CHICAGO BEARS

New England are rolling. After the surgical dissection of the Jets defense on Monday night Tom Brady will face off against another of the best defenses in the NFL. Lead by Brian Urlacher and Julius Peppers this defense carried the Bears through the early season struggles on offense and now they’ve picked up their performance on that side Chicago look like a threatening team. Soldier Field in December is no easy place to go and win but the conditions shouldn’t worry New England too much. The short week, which is keeping this line close, could be an issue but Bill Belichik prepares his teams better than anyone and they’ll be ready for a battle.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) over DALLAS COWBOYS (Monday 1:30am, Channel 4)

Philadelphia are well rested after some Michael Vick heroics saved last Thursdays game against Houston. Dallas seem to be back to what people expected of them this year. This is the first time the bitter rivals meet this season and play again in week 17. There’s always fireworks when these two get together and this game should be no different. Vick’s numbers have calmed down slightly recently as teams adjust to him, DeMarcus Ware will have to have a big game for Dallas to win this and keep Vick under control. Dallas are running it more under Garrett, a clever thing to do with John Kitna as your Quarterback.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) over HOUSTON TEXANS (Tuesday 1:30am, ESPN)

A stunned Ravens team needs a win to keep it’s wildcard lead while Houston are now out of the playoff picture. Baltimore’s offense has struggled to put up points of late but Joe Flacco should find some joy against the Texans secondary. Houston’s Arian Foster continues to lead the NFL in rushing yards and touchdown but this will be the toughest test of his fledgling career. Haloti Ngata is playing fantastic football on the Ravens D-line and should be a disruptive force all game.

Last Week: 6-10

England Dominate In Adelaide, Take Control Of Ashes

2010-12-07T00:23:00.000-08:00

England registered their first innings defeat of Australia since the 1986/7 tour with a display to stun the hosts in Adelaide.

Winning the toss on what is usually a good batting track Australia would have been confident of a good result. But such hopes were in taters after losing 3 quick wickets including a disastrous run out of Simon Katich without facing a ball and Captain Ricky Ponting falling to James Anderson for a golden duck. Michael Hussey again provided stern middle order resistance in the face of an assured English bowling attack, putting up a resilient 93. However with just 245 runs on the board in their first innings it was going to take a monumental effort from the hosts to get any sort of positive result.

England’s innings started dimly too, giving a glimmer of hope to Australia. Captain Andrew Strauss was just as disappointing as his counter-part, being dismissed for just 1 run. However Alistair Cook and Jonathan Trott, Australia’s nemeses from Brisbane, again did the damage with a partnership of 173 before Kevin Pietersen, whose form had been in doubt coming into the series, hit an imperious 227 to help England to an incredible 620-5 before declaring early on day four to leave Australia needing a titanic second innings display to save the Test match.

Australia started their second innings in defiant nature. An opening partnership between Katich and Shane Watson looked to be giving a firm platform before the impressive Graeme Swann struck to get the ball rolling for the tourists. And things were looking good for England until the weather turned and the rain came down.

A delay of 55 minutes was just what the doctor ordered for Australia, and when play resumed a robust Michael Clarke took the fight on. With luck running thin Strauss tossed the ball to Pietersen to try his luck at the end of the day. The batsmen’s own brand of spin struck gold with the last ball of the day as Clarke nicked one to Cook at short leg. A back breaking wicket for Australia who finished the day on 238-4.

When play resumed early on the final day the hoped for rain did not materialised and despite an early drop from wicket keeper Matt Prior and an injury to seam bowler Stuart Broad the remaining attack of Swann, Anderson and Steven Finn mopped up the remaining 6 wickets of Australia before lunch, sending the hosts to a debilitating Innings and 71 runs defeat.

The defeat is the second heaviest Australia have suffered at the Adelaide Oval and one that Ponting made no excuses for, stating in his post-match interview: “They out-batted us, they out-bowled and out-fielded us the entire game.”. And it is praise not undeserved for England.

With both bat and ball England were a cut above their hosts, and the distinction was not clearer than in the performances of the two spinners; Xavier Doherty of Australia, and England’s Graeme Swann.

Doherty had a miserable test, getting swatted to all corners by England’s batsmen before picking up the largely undeserved wicket of Pietersen as he looked to add quick runs to England’s total and picking up just 11 with the bat. Swann meanwhile played up to the pre-tour hype, collecting a second innings fifer that included the wicket of a beguiled Ricky Ponting. And while England’s batsmen took to the middle he never had to put his pads on.

Australia now find themselves in an unfamiliar position. Anything less than two wins and a draw from the remaining 3 tests and England will win the Ashes series down under for just the 5^th time since World War II. And this is an Australia team in need of serious help. They have bowled England out just once in the 2 tests, and the changes made to the line-up before the Adelaide test seem to have weakened the tail and had no effect to the wicket-taking ability of the bowling. Opener Simon Katich is reportedly going to miss the rest of the series with an Achilles injury, leaving the batting line-up severely weakened.

The weeks break until the third test will be a welcome one for Australia, they need to assess their options. Ponting is expected to sit down with the selectors to discuss options for replacing Katich with Phil Hughes likely to come into the side.

As for England, from here they have a tour date against Victoria on the 10^th that will likely be used to decide who replaces the injured Broad for the next Test. Tim Bresnan is the early favourite to be selected, but a good performance from Ajmal Shahzad or Chris Tremlett could see them called up. But at the moment spirits are high in the England camp, as they should be. Despite Strauss’ hit and miss form (His totals read 0, 110, 1) the rest of the batsmen are in great nick. Anderson is a threat whenever he picks up the ball and has been the player of the series so far along with Cook while Finn’s performances have been very encouraging.

England’s captain, while full of positive words about the match also talked of the hard work yet to come. He is fully aware that nothing is won yet, and we should hope that the forthcoming break does not dampen the form England has shown so far. However the sounds of Jerusalem reverberating around the Oval this morning will be hard to get out of my head until the series picks up again in the WACA on the 16^th December.

NFL Week 13 Picks and Previews

2010-12-03T06:55:00.000-08:00

After the NFC picture became a little clearer last week it’s time for the AFC to settle a few issues. Pittsburgh and Baltimore, tied at 8-3 for the AFC North lead, meet on Sunday Night Football while the AFC best Patriots and Jets (9-2) square off in Foxboro on Monday Night. Last week was very much a case of The Good, The Bad and The Ugly as San Diego put in a stellar team performance to beat the Colts, Cortland Finnegan and Andre Johnson traded punches and handed over $25,000 each in fines while the Arizona Cardinals were hide-behind-the-sofa ugly as they lost to the 49ers on Monday night. Week 13 means the start of december, where some teams flourish and others flounder. Home team in caps...

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-8) over Houston Texans (Friday 1am, Sky Sports 2)

Michael Vick’s cannon arm against a historically bad secondary? I’m sold. Vick threw his first pick of the year against the league’s toughest defense last week. This shouldn’t stop the highlight reel play though. As for Houston, they needed a game against Rusty Smith badly. They got a confidence boosting shut out Tennessee while moving the ball well against a good D. Arian Foster continues to lead the league in rushing and is on track to finish with an impressive 1,600+ yards. Just feed him the ball and things tend to go well, unfortunately Vick could drag Houston away from that plan.

TENNESSEE TITANS (+Collins) over Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars over TENNESSEE TITANS (+Smith) (Sunday 6pm, Sky Sports 4)

There’s no line on this due to the Quarterback situation. If Collins is fit and healthy then the Titans offense should click. If not we’ll see the same dud as last week where Chris Johnson had no room and the passing game was less threatening than a three year old with a sponge. Jacksonville SHOULD have won against the Giants, but they couldn’t put the game away and lost. It’s a must win for both teams with the AFC South up for grabs. I don’t know what they feed the defensive linemen over in Nashville but I want some, that is an impressive group of players year in and year out.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (-5) over Cleveland Browns

It looks like Jake Delhomme is the starter again as Colt McCoy is yet to get the all clear. Delhomme is still Delhomme and Miami’s D makes life tough for even the best QB’s so this is kind of a gimme. Henne fought his way back to fitness last week and looked good while Davone Bess is looking more and more like the go-to guy. The Dolphins running game has been a little disappointing this year but they still have the ability to grind out the tough yards. Peyton Hillis is just 6 scores away from Jim Brown’s franchise record of 16 in a season. Breaking it will probably be the biggest moment in Hillis’ career but he’s been a terror this season and deserves a lot more recognition than he’s getting.

Buffalo Bills (+5.5) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Adrian Peterson’s injury is a problem. He’s been the shining light of this team during the offensive and defensive line struggles and Favre’s failures. Rookie Toby Gerhart was able to pound the rock last week but only at 3.5 yards a carry, although against the Buffalo defense that could turn into 4.5-5. Interim coach Leslie Frazier has given the Vikings a bit of a boost, but Buffalo have been playing up to their opposition all year and are perfectly capable of keeping this close, and even winning if Steve Johnson can find his catching gloves again.

Washington Redskins (+7) over NEW YORK GIANTS

The banged up Giants stole win from Jacksonville last week and might just edge the ‘Skins here, but not cover. Given the Eagles probable win on Thursday the heat will be on the Giants to keep pace in the NFC East. The playoffs are a very long shot now for the ‘Skins but they’d love to play spoiler for the Giants here. The no-names playing running back in Washington is an issue now but Shanahan has shown before that his system can turn just about anyone into an ok rusher, and that will be key to staying in this one. They won’t be able to have Donovan McNabb throw it 40+ times and win. He’s just not that guy anymore.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-9) over Denver Broncos

You never know which Denver team you’re going to get. Todd Haley officially HATES Josh McDaniels after the whole “finger point instead of handshake” incident in week 10. Kansas are the form team out of the 2 with Dwayne Bowe having the best 7 game stretch for a Wide Receiver not named Jerry Rice ever. 49 catches for 670 and 13 touchdowns. Incredible. He’ll be matched up against the formerly invisible Champ Bailey, but recently he and a lot of the Broncos defense have looked old and a step off the pace. It’s also hard to tell how this who “spygate II” will affect this team on the field. In New England it instilled an “us against the world” mentality that was successful. Here though the team seem much less behind the Head Coach. It will be very interesting viewing.

Chicago Bears (-5) over DETROIT LIONS

Chicago look good now. In beating Philly they established themselves as a real contender in the NFC. The offensive line has stepped up and as a result the whole O is clicking much better while the D continues to play as well as it did during the ’06 superbowl run. Detroit are coming of a long week after losing to New England on thanksgiving. They had a good first half in that game with the impressive defensive line getting good pressure. Something they will need to do in order to slow down the now confident Bears. Also, don’t kick to Hester. I don’t know why teams insist on doing it. It’s far too dangerous and gives a big lift to the whole Chicago team when he makes a big return.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-9) over San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco’s performance against Arizona has to be looked at in isolation. The Cards had a mare of a day at the office. Frank Gore’s injury is a big one, he’s the heart and soul of that offense and helped take the weight off Troy Smith’s shoulders. With him out Smith will have to make more plays, and against this defense it’ll be very difficult. Aaron Rodgers has rediscovered his 2009 touch and the Packers were very close to walking out of Atlanta with a win. They’re rounding into form but need to keep collecting wins for a meaningful week 17 game against Chicago.

New Orleans Saints (-6.5) over CINCINNATI BENGALS

The Saints might be the least talked about defending champions in a long time but they’re quietly piling up the wins and are in a tight battle for the NFC South or a wild card spot. Brees is tied for the league lead in touchdown throws now, and although his numbers aren’t as eye-popping as in previous years he’s still playing very well. Cincinnati are in a terrible state at the moment and Marv Lewis will be lucky to hold onto his job this off-season (although that’s been said before during his tenure with the Bengals, and he’s still there somehow).

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-13) over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 9pm, Sky Sports 4)

Oakland are a curious team. At times they’ve been great and other times bad. Last week they were awful. The flip-flopping between Jason Campbell and Bruce Gradkowski hasn’t aided to any sense of continuity on offense, they need to pick one and stick with him. As for San Diego they made a real statement with their treatment of Peyton Manning last week. They’re finally playing up to the talent on the team. Rivers is unbeaten in December during the regular season and The Bolts are capable of winning out. It’s been a classic Chargers 2^nd half lead by Rivers, who is a front runner for MVP at the moment.

Atlanta Falcons (-3) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

A tricky one. Atlanta squeeze out wins playing unspectacular but consistent football . Tampa are yet to get a win over a team with a winning record but themselves look like a good team, young and full of confidence. Both sides play mistake free, percentage football and stay in games. I think the trio of Ryan, White and Turner will be just too much for the Bucs to handle. But if the game is on the line in the last 2 minutes and Josh Freeman has the football don’t be surprised to see an upset here. A lose doesn't knock the Bucs out of playoff contention but will make the week 17 trip the the superdome a must win, and that's something they could do without.

Carolina Panthers (+6) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Carolina have looked better (not hard) but recently while Seattle have just spiralled downwards, giving up a staggering 33 points a game in the last 5 weeks. Seattle’s QWEST Field is one of the few places in the NFL with a real home field advantage which helped earlier in the season, but the 12^th man affect hasn’t helped recently. This game can swing either way, Seattle are one of those teams that can play well or badly, but when 2 bad teams meet like this just take the points.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-5) over Dallas Cowboys

The Colts need a win. It really isn’t often you get to say that either. After big loses to New England and San Diego the Colts find themselves in and unfamiliar battle for the division that is usually wrapped up by now. Peyton Manning is trying too hard. He has been forcing the ball and making bad choices the last 2 weeks due to a lack of running game and porous defense. Manning needs to calm down and relax, although it’s not that easy when your guard gets bullrushed back and ends up sacking you. Dallas seem to be back to themselves. Garrett has fixed the attitude problems (for now) and both sides of the ball clicking. While the playoffs aren’t a possibility they can play spoiler to a lot of teams now and along with Cleveland are probably the team people want to avoid.

St. Louis Rams (-3) over ARIZONA CARDINALS

These are teams going in opposite directions quickly. The win in Denver last week was a massive step forward for Bradford and the Rams while Arizona didn’t so much go backwards last week as turn tail and run away from the NFL. It was a truly awful display on Monday Night and they were rightly booed by the fans in Glendale. If anyone needs to draft a QB early in April it’s the Cardinals, and with the way they’re going they should be able to get their hands on one of the top names. Bradford is looking so comfortable in the NFL it’s staggering, especially when you think of what a shambles this club was last year. With the way Westbrook was finding running room against the Arizona D Steven Jackson could have a career day.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) over BALTIMORE RAVENS (Monday 1:30am, Channel 4)

It’s a battle for the lead of the AFC North. Baltimore won the 1^st meeting of these two earlier in the year but that was during Ben Roethlisberger’s suspension. And the Steelers with Big Ben are a different beast altogether. However after sustaining a foot injury the superbowl winning quarterback is a doubt to play. If he doesn’t then the Steelers game plan has to change (as does my pick!) and they’ll need to lean on Rashard Mendenhall all the more. On D these guys are a carbon copy of one another. 3-4 fronts that are capable of strangling the life out of the opposition for all 4 quarters. It’ll be a tightly fought and edgy encounter. Take the points if Roethlisberger is fit.

New York Jets (+3.5) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (Tueday 1:30am, ESPN)

The big one. 2 teams with the NFL best 9-2 record square off with home field advantage in the playoffs at stake. A win for the Jets here would be huge. Brady has won 25 straight regular season games in Foxboro, tying Brett Favre’s record, and the Jets haven’t doubled the Patriots up in a long time. Do so now and they take a game lead in the division plus get the tie-breaker. The Jets might not be winning with style at the moment but there’s a confidence and a swagger about this team that worries me just a little. The key battle will be the Patriots Offense against the Jets D. Easily the best units on each team . New England’s offensive line has a toughness about it now that Logan Mankins is back and they’re finding running room, but against the Jets that comes at a premium. Revis got beat by Moss for a spectacular touchdown in week 2 but with that match-up gone it will be interesting to see who he spends his time with on Revis Island this week. Take the points and hold on tight. There could be fireworks in this one.

Last Week: 11-5

BBC Sports Personality Of The Year 2010

2010-11-30T11:37:00.000-08:00

There’s no dream walk over for an England World Cup winning player or Andy Murray strolling to the podium to collect the trophy after his victorious summer in Wimbledon. Instead it’s going to be a year for the “small sports”, which in a way is great to see. Last year the award was hijacked as a career achievement award for Ryan Giggs so it’s nice to see a short-list of people where that won’t happen. We have a short list this year of a cyclist, 3 Olympic athletes, 2 golfers, a darts star, a boxing champ, a jockey and cricketer. So who is going to take home the prize this year then?

Mark Cavendish

After a place on the 2009 short list Mark Cavendish is back. The sprint rider had quite a successful 2010. Despite a fall in the first sprint stage of the Tour De France he recovered to take 5 stage wins and finish second in the point classification. This was then followed up by a points win in the Tour of Spain. 2010 might not have been Cavendish’s most successful in terms of public visibility what with no Olympics or world championships to get national TV coverage. However he is well known and the lack of big name, main stream sport stars is a positive for him.

Tom Daley

Daley actually had a somewhat disappointing start to 2010. He came 2^nd in the British championships in February and then failed to qualify for a World Series event in April. A tricep injury prevented Daley from defending his individual 10 metre title in the European Championships in August. However he recovered to claim the individual and synchronised 10 metre gold medals in Delhi. Daley has twice won Young Sports Personality and is one of the most recognisable names on this list. A favourite to be sure.

David Haye

The WBA world heavyweight champion had 2 successful defences of his title vs. John Ruiz in April and recently against Audley Harrison in a packed out O2 arena. While the fight against one of the Klitschko brothers is yet to materialise Haye has talked the talk when it comes to promises of unifying the heavyweight division. He seems to be keen to take the fight to the big Ukrainians but has pulled out of a fight with them before. A BBC Sports Personality award might have to wait until his arm is raised in victory over at least one of them.

Tony McCoy

The Champion jump jockey finally won the Grand National at his 15^th attempt when he rode Don’t Push It home in April. McCoy has a career sheet second to none and has won every title a jockey can. 2010 hasn’t been the most successful year of his career with 195 winners but he’s a very open and likeable man with a bigger following outside of his sport than most of the short list candidates and could well take this.

Graeme Swann

After a key role in England’s successful 2009 Ashes victory Graeme Swann stamped his name across everything England did in 2010. Named ECB Cricketer of the year in May and among Wisden’s 2010 cricketers of the year the off-spinner is firmly among the world’s elite. With England now down under and trying to retain the Ashes a lot of the build-up was focused on Swann and what he could do. In the first test it was very little. With 2 more Test Matches between now and the live vote on the 19^th his performances in Australia could well influence the voters much more than the rest of his 2010 fireworks will.

Phil Taylor

Perhaps the most deserving nominee this year Phil “The Power” Taylor has dominated the Darts world for years. He secured his 15^th world championship in January. One of the most friendly “lesser sport” players around you’ll often see Taylor appearing on Question of Sport and a like. There has been a big movement in recent years to get this man the nation wide recognition his continued excellence deserves and it seems to be paying off.

Lee Westwood, Graeme McDowell

For brevities sake let’s deal with the golfers together. Lee Westwood put together a strong 2010 with 2^nd place finishes in The Open and Masters. Eventually taking over the World Number 1 crown from Tiger Woods at the end of October. McDowell became Europe’s first US Open champion in 40 years when he won his first major in June. Both men were part of Europe’s successful Ryder Cup team. While either man would be a worthy winner the presence of another golfer hurts the others chances as it is likely to split the vote of golf fans.

Jessica Ennis

The poster girl for the 2012 Olympics had a fabulous 2010. A Dominant gold medal performance in European championships heptathlon capped of a good year for Ennis that started with an incredible British record for the 60 metre indoor hurdles. Ennis was one of several high profile athletes that decided to stay away from the Commonwealth Games in Delhi. Had she gone there could well have been another high profile gold medal to help her campaign but she is undoubtedly popular among the British public and will be one of the favourites.

Amy Williams

It was a long time ago that Amy Williams was dominating the back pages as she slid her way to Great Britain’s first individual Winter Olympics gold in 30 years in Vancouver. During her successful runs Williams broke the course record for the Skeleton Bob twice. Her success was a great one but January was a long time ago and a lot has happened since. She’s got to be an outsider for this.

The Verdict

My heart says Phil “The Power” Taylor but my head says Daley or Ennis. As the leading hopes for gold in London 2012 they have the star power factor to get the phones buzzing on the 19^th December. While Taylor's CV is the most complete of anyone on the short-list Darts is scoffed at by many as merely a pub game and without the big football or rugby stars it's likely that the voters turn to British athletes. Swann would be an outside shot at the moment. Plying his trade on the other side of the world while most of us sleep is very unlikely to help.

Evaluating The MVP Race

2010-11-29T15:34:00.000-08:00

There have been a lot of great individual performances throughout the NFL this year. From Arian Foster exploding onto the scene in week one to Roddy White elevating his game to an elite level. But the league these days is a passing orientated, win now place. The likes of Foster, Adrian Peterson, Clay Matthews and until recently Phillip Rivers had been discounted from the discussion by analysts because they don’t throw the ball or don’t have the wins. While I don’t agree with this entirely it seems to be the criteria these days. So let’s take a look at the front runners for the award. In no particular order mind.

Phillip Rivers: QB – San Diego Chargers

Yards	Accuracy	Touchdowns	Interceptions	QB Rating
3,362	66.2	23	9	104.9

The Chargers early season struggles have been well documented but needless to say that Rivers was not at fault for their 2-5 start. Until recently Rivers was on a pace to smash Dan Marino’s record for most passing yards in a season, an indication of just how much he’s been trying to make up for the special teams errors and costly fumbles the rest of the team have been committing. He’s also had to battle a plague of injuries to the receiving corps. Constant knocks to Antonio Gates, Legedu Naanee and Malcolm Floyd, together with the hold-out and suspension of Vincent Jackson, has resulted in Rivers throwing to guys off the practice squad and brought in from the street. But he’s hardly missed a step. Rivers may not be on track to top Marino’s 5,084 yards but he’s playing at such a high level at the moment that he gives the Chargers a chance to win against anyone. The Chargers have quite an easy run in and Rivers has a staggeringly good record in the back end of the regular season that it’s hard to see the Chargers missing out of the Play-offs, but they’re a game back from the Chiefs for the division lead. A 2^nd lose to them in week 14 could finish their hopes.

Signature performance:- Week 9; 29-23 win @ Houston: 17/23, 295 yds, 4 TD

Tom Brady: QB – New England Patriots

Yards	Accuracy	Touchdowns	Interceptions	QB Rating
2,703	66.3	23	4	105.8

The Patriots jointly own the NFL’s best record and Tom Brady is the biggest reason why. He might not be piling up the stats like his 2007 MVP winning season but has been the heart and soul of the team. While many commentators poke fun at his long hair Brady has turned into a fiery on the field leader. Brady’s numbers took a bit of a dip after the week 4 trade of Randy Moss but he’s not thrown an interception in 199 pass attempts now, and that was an end of regulation hail mary throw to try and avoid over-time. The Patriots defense has been very porous this season and it has been Brady’s ability to stand imperiously in the pocket and command the offense that has had this team exceeding its pre-season expectations. His incredible shows recently against Pittsburgh and Indianapolis were of the highest quality and the Patriots are the highest scoring offense in the NFL because of just how well Tom Brady is playing. If he can guide New England to a win against the Jets on Monday (who sit atop the AFC East due to beating New England earlier in the season) it will be a real statement.

Signature performance:- Week 10; 39-26 win @ Pittsburgh: 30/43, 350 yds, 3 TD

Michael Vick: QB – Philadelphia Eagles

Yards	Accuracy	Touchdowns	Interceptions	QB Rating
1,941	63.4	13	1	106.0

Michael Vick started the season as a back-up but was quickly called into action in week one after injury to Kevin Kolb. Vick has sustained injuries of his own that put him back on the bench for a few weeks, hence the lower stats than the other contenders, but recovered well. . The Eagles have also shown an ability to win without him but not in the same style and manner as when #7 is on the field. His fall from NFL poster boy to prison inmate was almost as remarkable as the way he’s turned himself around. Vick’s amazing skill set baffled defences during his spell in Atlanta for a while, but eventually a system was found to contain him. Now you have to throw that system out. Vick is much improved as a pocket quarterback. He’s comfortable to stand there, scan the field and go through his progressions. His amazing arm strength hasn’t diminished while the fear that so long out of football would dull his edge and take the juice out of his legs are long gone. It would be quite a story if Vick were to be crowned MVP, and realistically it would need the Eagles to gain at least a bye in the NFC. In recent games Vick has been kept relatively quiet, a sign that teams have started to figure out a new way to keep him under wraps. The Eagles have a key date in New York in week 15 that will decide the NFC East. And maybe Vick’s candidacy.

Signature Performance:- Week 10; 59-28 win @ Washington Redskins: 20/28, 333yds, 4TD. 8 carries for 80 yards, 2 TD’s.

Peyton Manning: QB – Indianapolis Colts

Yards	Accuracy	Touchdowns	Interceptions	QB Rating
3,344	65.2	22	11	90.8

The perennial MVP. Peyton Manning has won 4 MVP titles including the last 2 years. However those awards were really given on the absence of big name, stellar performances. This year however Manning is having to cope with much more than before. Long-time Colts coaches Tom Moore and Howard Mudd are gone, his safety net of a Tight End Dallas Clark has been hurt, Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon have missed time while the offensive line hasn’t kept him as clean as in previous years. While in the running game injuries to Addai and Hart have left it almost non-existent. Consecutive losses to Brady and Rivers in the last 2 weeks will have hurt his campaign but Manning is shouldering much more than the other contenders at this point. The Colts are in a tie for the lead of the AFC South at 6-5 and so still very much in the play-off hunt, but at the moment Manning is the outsider of the group.

Signature win:- Week 2; 38-14 win vs. New York Giants: 20/26, 255yds 3TD’s.

Honourable mentions:- Matt Ryan (QB, Atlanta), Roddy White (WR, Atlanta), Hakeem Nicks (WR, Giants), Adrian Peterson (RB, Vikings), Arian Foster (RB, Texans), Clay Matthews (OLB, Packers), Cameron Wake (OLB, Dolphins)

NFL Week 12 Picks

2010-11-28T18:25:00.000-08:00

Another turbulent week is in the books. New England and Indy played out another classic while Brad Childress got shown the door in Minnesota after another heavy loss to a division rival. Vince Young lost his head after being told his thumb injury was too severe to be allowed to continue and stormed away from the field. While the owners have said that both Vince and Head Coach Jeff Fisher will be there next season it has wrecked what was a competitive season for the Titans.

This week has a full set of Thanksgiving games on Thursday and some big match-ups between major contenders. The Bears and Eagles face off with 7 wins a piece while Green Bay travel to the NFC best Atlanta Falcons. So let’s get down to it. Home team in caps.

New England Patriots (-6.5) over DETROIT LIONS (Thursday 5:30pm, Sky Sports 3)

The Patriots had their way with the Colts for the first three quarters on Sunday before taking their foot off and allowing Manning back into it. Detroit meanwhile continue to play tough but not get the rub of the green. The short week and impending clash with the Jets next week could be tough for the Patriots, but they were caught looking ahead against Cleveland and there’s no way a Belichick team makes the same mistake twice. Brady continues to look imperious behind a fantastic offensive line while their rookie class continues to impress.

New Orleans Saints (-3.5) over DALLAS COWBOYS

The Cowboys got their first home win of the season last week against the Lions while New Orleans kept pace in the NFC South with a home win over Seattle. Dallas look rejuvenated in the absence of Wade Phillips so this is has the makings of a good game. New Orleans continue to look off their game. Brees is launching touchdowns but also interceptions while their injury list is quite a full one. It’ll be a closer game that the two records suggest but the Saints D will be a tougher opposition for Kitna and won’t make him look like a superstar. Dallas ended the Saints perfect season in 2009; expect a revenge factor for New Orleans.

NEW YORK JETS (-9) over Cincinnati Bengals

The Jets continue to pull out last second wins. Sunday’s comeback against Houston was a display of dreadful defense on the part of the Texans more than great play by the Jets. However these sort of wins instil a confidence in a team that they can always get it done, and Sanchez did throw some perfect balls on that drive. As for the Bengals – wow. They’re really playing up to their nickname of “Bungles” now. From 31-14 at half-time they conceded 35 points unanswered in the second half. Injuries in the secondary didn’t help but it’s really inexcusable. Palmer was locked in on TO and rookie Jordan Shipley in the 4^th quarter. Ignoring an often open Chad Ochocinco which only served to anger the Wide-Out. The expected cracks of having two big egos seem to be showing after Chad’s twitter outburst after the game.

ATLANTA FALCONS (-2) over Green Bay Packers (Sunday 5:30pm, Sky Sports 2)

Simply a huge game. Atlanta are incredibly tough at home and a win here will go a long way towards securing home play-off games. Aaron Rodgers has found some of his 2009 form and is lighting it up with Greg Jennings at the moment. They embarrassed the Vikings last week and will need to repeat that performance if they want to come away from the Georgia Dome with a win. Clay Matthews continues to terrorize opposing quarterbacks but the Atlanta offensive line has protected Ryan well this year. The Packers move Matthews around a lot so identifying where he is will be crucial to protection assignments. Michael Turner could be the key here; if he can get it going early then Ryan can work the play-action and keep the Packers linebackers on the back foot.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) over BUFFALO BILLS

Buffalo might be full of confidence after back to back wins. They were able to stick with the Ravens five weeks ago and have enough to, in theory, stick around for a while against Pittsburgh. The Steelers know they can’t afford a slip up, the race in the AFC is hotting up now and home field advantage is going to be key come the play-offs. Pittsburgh put in a great performance against Oakland and could just as likely stifle the Bills with their swarming defense. WR Steve Johnson has become Fitzpatrick’s go to guy and the pair have put up impressive numbers but this is where the Bill’s run of form ends I’m afraid.

TEXANS (NL) over Titans

No line for this one due to the uncertainty surrounding the Titans Quarterback situation. Kerry Collins, who is now the number 1 guy, is still a few weeks away from full fitness so it looks like Rusty Smith is going to be playing on Sunday. He couldn’t really have a better match up for his first NFL start than Houston - who look incapable of stopping a passing attack lead by myself at the moment. Arian Foster, the NFL’s leading rusher, gives the Texans great balance on offense which will be needed against a Titans D that lives to pressure the QB.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) over NEW YORK GIANTS

No Hakeem Nicks equals serious problems for the Giants. The star Wide Receiver is going to be out for the next 2-3 weeks. The injury comes at a time when the receiving corps is already thin and will be very damaging to the offense. Jacksonville played tough against Cleveland and pulled out the win on a well-designed screen to Maurice Jones-Drew. He and Garrard have hit form at together for the first time in a while and that makes them a tricky team to negotiate. Surprise leaders of the AFC South; the Jags have only won road games in Dallas and Buffalo. This would be a pretty big scalp for them to go into the New Meadowlands and come out with a win.

Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Brad Childress lost the dressing room long before he lost his job. Defensive Coordinator Leslie Frazier is promoted to interim Head Coach and could well have the same rejuvenating affect that Jason Garrett has had in Dallas. Washington remain an enigma. They needed over-time to beat the Rusty Smith led Titans and their D can be as leaky as a colander at times. If the Vikes feed the ball to Peterson and let him do his thing it could be over very quickly. But if Brett Favre gets heavily involved then who knows what will happen. The commentators haven’t said “he’s having fun out there” for a long time now. Any other QB would have been benched a while ago for the performances he’s put in.

BROWNS (NL) over Panthers

Another no line due to quarterbacks. Colt McCoy picked up an ankle injury last weekend which means the promising rookie might have to sit for a healthy Jake Delhomme, who would be facing a team he tormented for years with untimely interceptions and generally bad play. Carolina continue to play terrible football and seem set for the 1^st pick in the 2011 draft. This line could be -14 and I’d still take a Delhomme lead Browns team. I’m not sure how Denver could have had Peyton Hillis in training every week and not think this guy could play, but their mistake is Cleveland’s gain and every week he makes the Browns front office look like the smartest guys in the room.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5) over BALTIMORE RAVENS

Tampa stepped up on defense last week and handed the 49ers their first home shut out for 33 years while Baltimore trampled on Carolina. The Ravens sport a very balanced offense and the defensive talent to really test Josh Freeman and his band of gutsy young players. I can really see this one staying close. The Bucs have an energy about them that is rarely seen in the Pros and reflects a young team full of confidence and if this game is close going into the 4^th quarter they could even steal a victory here. This game also boasts two of the defensive old guard. Ray Lewis and Ronde Barber have 29 years of NFL experience between them and still look as fresh as ever.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) over CHICAGO BEARS (Sunday 9pm, Sky Sports 2)

The Michael Vick show was put on hold against New York on Sunday night. The Giants focused on keeping him under wraps. Which was great until LeSean McCoy, the forgotten man of the Eagles offense, popped up with his 2^nd 100+ yard game of the season and the Philly defense sprung into life. The Eagles are a team on a roll at the moment. Chicago’s defense is one of the toughest in the league and they’re coming of a long week after shutting out the Dolphins on Thursday. They’ve got the offense working better than previously but I don’t think they have the speed on defense to cope with Vick and all the weapons around him.

OAKLAND RAIDERS (NL) over Miami Dolphins

Tyler Thigpen is 1-11 as a starter and Chad Henne is battling to be healthy. The Dolphins play calling was terrible. Including scrambles and sacks Miami called in 41 passes to 7 rushes. Unbelievable when you have a 3^rd string QB in and the game wasn’t out of reach until the 4^th quarter. As for Oakland, the only highlight of their drubbing from the Steelers was Richard Seymour’s straight right hand to the chin of Ben Roethlisberger that David Haye would be proud of. Oakland still have a shot at the division crown if they start stringing performances together.

Kansas City Chiefs (-1) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

The Chiefs have to win this one. San Diego is applying a lot of pressure in the division now and there’s little to no chance that they can get a wildcard slot. Kansas has the number 1 rushing attack in the NFL which usually serves a road team well but that hasn’t been the case so far. Seattle plays much better at home than on the road so don’t expect the same lame duck performance they put in against the Saints. However they are still a bad team. The Chiefs can control the clock and quieten the fans with Charles and Jones, while Bowe now leads the league in receiving Touchdowns. It should all be too much for Seattle to compete with.

St. Louis Rams (+4) over DENVER BRONCOS

Who knows which Broncos team you’re going to get these days. Their opening drive on MNF was a thing of beauty, the rest of the performance was all beast. Brian Dawkins looked very old and we might be seeing the end of a great player. The Rams meanwhile played the Falcons tough for the majority of last week’s game. If they can find Sam Bradford some receivers they could be a competitive team for years to come. The Rams haven’t won of the road in an age and Mile High is usually the hardest place to travel too but there’s a lot of negativity in Denver at the moment. Patience is running low for Josh McDaniels. He clearly knows how to design an offense, but whether or not he can run a team is another matter.

San Diego Chargers (+3) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (Monday 1:30am, Channel 4)

The Chargers have owned the Colts recently. Sunday night’s loss to the Patriots proved that this team will go as far as Peyton Manning can drag them. Rivers will be salivating while watching the game tape. The Patriots did whatever they wanted on offense, and the way he’s playing at the moment things could get ugly for the Colts on defense. The Chargers are finally playing like a team with league leading stats across the board. Shaun Phillips had a great game against Denver and will be key to stopping Manning.

San Francisco 49ers (-1) over ARIZONA CARDINALS

This is an ugly match-up for prime time. Neither are playing good football. I’m taking Troy Smith and Frank Gore here because they’ve shown that vs a bad D they can get points on the board and oh boy is Arizona playing bad defense at the moment. Troy Smith can make things happen with his feet and until last week looked the part. Arizona are on a terrible 0-5 streak and Derek Anderson has thrown just 7 touchdowns on the year. An early night all round here I think!

Last week: 11-4-1