ToD: Topic of the Day

Passion Don't Follow It: Yes you heard that right!

2012-12-29T22:47:00.002-08:00

I take it all back about dreams and passion... don't follow it. Get good at something that has value: Steve jobs did not have passion for computers but he was good at it. Don't make the jump until you have the skills to leverage. Going after your dreams day one after graduation is like being a consultant from day one or being a total professions from day one... not going to f-ing happen and setting yourself up for failure. The whole "follow your passions" has been out since the mid 1900s and every since then job satisfaction and happiness has been decreasing.

2013 a new year get out and don't follow you passion and get good at something.

Please refer this video for additional information from Cal Newport, 40 minutes but totally worth it.

Should I Get The AMEX BLUE Credit Card?

2012-12-21T05:49:00.001-08:00

The American Express Blue card is a high rewards card for a unique shopping category of supermarkets. To the average consumer supermarkets is a non-discretionary expense and often the largest category of expenses (other than gasoline).

The low down on the rewards scheme:

6% cash back on purchases at U.S. stand-alone supermarkets (up to $6,000 per year)
3% cash back on gasoline at U.S. stand-alone gas stations and select major department stores
and 1% cash back on other purchases.

Assumptions:
75 dollars a year - Annual fee

Setting the best alternative at 3% at supermarkets which is very rare we try to solve for the crossover point.

If someone spends 50 dollars a week for a total of 3000 dollars a year on groceries the AMEX BLUE rebate would be (3000*.06)-75= 105. The best alternatve would be 3000*.03=90.
Clearly if you spend 45-50 dollars a week on groceries you NEED to apply for this AMEX BLUE card.\

And buy gift cards which will be given the 6% off also.

BTW: $150 cash back in Reward Dollars when you spend $1,000 in the first three months of Cardmembership

WeakMindedDumbass Clause: If you do not pay your balance off every month. Please do not get this or any card, or have children.

Double standards in physical culture

2012-12-01T20:29:00.002-08:00

Why do people criticize the person who asks for a side salad instead of fries or goes out for jog after the party? The guy is just trying to take personal resposibility for their health and future well being.

Why are people with cancer and diabetics treated like random victims? Do we not realize there is an association between the sleep/diet/exercise choices we make NOW will affect us in the FUTURE?

Skewed Science

2012-11-05T14:48:00.002-08:00

This hits the nail on the head when it comes to people with personal biases.

http://www.youtube.com/embed/GI0sSgLUbXk

Average Baby Boomer Financial Status

2012-10-20T19:58:00.000-07:00

Energy and Politics

2012-10-06T20:47:00.001-07:00

Is it feasible to obtain all needed energy (heating, transportation,
etc.) from renewable sources by 2030 (20 years from now)?

Mr Obama has mandated lofty energy goals. One that is tangible to the
average consumer is the required MPG for vehicles. I believe the
mandate is by 2030 cars need to be getting 40-50 plus MPG. Yes we have
priuses and hybrids that get that. But I drive around a Tahoe and I
gobble up 15 mpg and I don't see this happening.

Leadership (the government) is setting lofty goals for industry to follow. I fully
support this although I am a skeptic. To achieve that kinda MPG
rating on a truck requires not only removing every lb of unnecessary
weight in the vehicle but it requires a kinda of efficient motor
system that technology does not have.

As a side note... the movie "Back to the Future" had us flying in cars
by 2012 and look at us. I am personally a little disappointed in our
society's development of handhelds and computer to date. It seems we
have forgotten or been misdirected to concentrate on improving
technology on the discretionary technologies and we have lost
improvement in the realm of motors and even power plants.

To end on a happy note... Through the law of conservation of energy,
energy is not destroyed just lost in inefficiency. I have heard that
the typical is much less than 10% efficient. Given that there is much
room for improvement.

We need to vote with our pocketbooks. Every time we spend 100 dollars
a month on our IPHONEs we are saying to the young minds to concentrate
on the next iteration of the iphone and not on more society benefiting
technologies.

Balance

2012-09-23T11:53:00.003-07:00

There is this site called http://www.seekingarrangement.com/ where you can find a sugar daddy/momma or find yourself a golddigger. People find themselves in these predicaments where there is no balance to their lives. Having to much money and no time or friends and the converse is no ones fault but your own and this lack of balance is due to lack of planning.

Lessons from the Road: Hotel discounts

2012-08-02T23:10:00.002-07:00

Hotels will offer AAA discounts, veterans rates, government discounts, advance notice discounts, preferred rates, discounts for being lefthanded.... well you get the point. Basically it does not make a difference (it is less than 10% the total rate). So don't feel so special or like your getting a good deal when your really getting a luke warm deal.

And there is always one room in a hotel... But it is selling for 150-200% more than what the first guy booked his room at.

What We Can Learn From the Death of the Premier NFL Running Back

2012-07-17T20:21:00.000-07:00

Walking through home depot I saw a Weber grill set with spatula, tongs, and fork. Weber grills are the premier brand in grilling. Now why would someone pay 20 bucks for something that can be bought for less than 5 bucks. Yes its a night brushed steel set and its sure to get a second look at the BBQ but it worth 4 times much as a solid grill set?

VALUE=Utility/Price paid

I'm all for buying quality and something that will last a long time but in some cases it is best to buy the lower quality item knowing that you will just need to replace it. Other products to consider when considering value.

-99 cent 3 blade razors vs Gillette fusion razors
-Asian/usa made vs BMWs
-Airbake cooking sheets vs dollar cooking pans vs aluminum foil

This is probably why the era of the 30 carry a game running back is no more since NFL management have found that it is cheaper and effective to use a 2 or 3 headed running back approach.

Must 24 Hour Fitness be open all the time?

2012-07-12T19:28:00.003-07:00

It is convenient that you don't have to worry about when the gym is open but in a world where systems are created to prevent unwise decisions why does a company promote an insanity that is an always open gym. Here is my reasoning:

1) Cortisol the stress hormone is not optimized and really screws with you when you workout during unearthly hours. No you are not special and be one of those people who are more productive at night ... just go to sleep when dark, awake by day.

2) If you can't find time to work out during the first 20 hours of the day it speaks to a shortcoming in the planning skills and priorites.

Paleo Bandwagon

2012-06-26T11:09:00.001-07:00

Most recently the Paleo bandwagon has been getting more crowded with followers as evident in the following graphic showing Google search results.

What is not right is the expansion of these paleo branded products which are not paleo such as

-primal whey (its dairy, and made into a liquid form)

-coconut water (its sugar)

Lorin Cordain, the first published author's first book was popular when it first came out but as since gained in popularity with the movement.

I don't know if I like this trend because it is making me feel less special.

The Secret to Good Health PT.2: The Data - BOOZE is GOOD?

2012-06-04T17:30:00.003-07:00

...Continued from part 1.

I then graphed the relationship between the variables and the output and found these conclusions.

Figure 4 Correlation Study: Hours of Sleep Effect on Change in BF%

Figure 4 illustrates that as you get more sleep bodyfat percentage goes up. Coefficient of T-Statistics is -.0046, R2 is 1.9%, R value is 0.137. Therefore the data supports that sleep is bad for you. This is not true and illustrates how data can be corrupt.

Figure 5 Correlation Study: Exercise Effect on Change in BF%

Figure 5 illustrates that as you get more exercise bodyfat percentage goes down. Coefficient of T-Statistics is -3E-.06, R2 is 0.15%, and R value is 0.039. The data supports that exercise is good for you. However there factor in this relationship seems to be a flat line correlation (Y=-3E=06x+.0029) therefore there is no evidence to suggest any correlation.

Figure 6 Correlation Study: Booze Effect on Change in BF%

Figure 6 illustrates that as you drink more alcohol your bodyfat percentage goes down. Coefficient of T-Statistics is -0.0003, R2 is 0.25%, R value is 0.5. Therefore the alcohol is good for you. As much as this study spits in the face of common logic I personally believe that the driver between this correlation is how alcohol is accompanied with peer bonding and other moral builders which could explain the positive benefits.

The Secret to Good Health (Pt. 1)

2012-05-31T20:44:00.001-07:00

I attempt to answer the age old question what is best for my health using myself as (N=1) experiment. In other words what is better: Sleep or exercise or diet? The output that I wish to measure is “bodyfat percentage”. The main reason I select this aspect to measure is how it strongly correlates to longevity a due to a good profile in lean body mass and linkage to good insulin sensitivity. I the test subject being of moderate bodyfat (male 10-15%) is therefore a perfect candidate to test (since having a 4% bodyfat and losing bodyfat would be considered unhealthy). I am not a medical professional… I just attempt to read the scientific numbers and this report is purely to illustrate the demonstration of using statistics.

Variables: As stated before bodyfat change will be the measured output. An increase will be seen as a negative mark against my health and a decrease will be viewed as positive event. The three measures that have been recorded is 1) hours of sleep averaged in a month, 2) amount of exercise I average each day (measured in calories) and, 3) Alcoholic Beverages consumed in a total month (measured as a unit of 12oz beer, 8oz wine, 1.5oz hard liquor).

The change in bodyfat percentage was put on a chart to analyze the validity or the data and the distribution.

Block number	Cell boundaries	Frequency
1	-1.057%	3
2	-0.563%	2
3	-0.070%	7
4	0.424%	3
5	0.918%	3
6	1.412%

block size	0.494%

Figure 1 Chart of Changes in Bodyfat Change

Figure 2 Chart of Changes in Bodyfat Change

Figure 2 illustrates a normal distribution evenly centered about the median of the date. Most of the measurements were in the 3^rd block which represented data of -0.070% to 0.424% change in bodyfat.

Month Sampled	30-day Sleeping average	Estimated amount of Exercise (Calories)	Alcoholic Beverages	Change in Body Fat
Sum	143.2	6454.3	455.3	0.0314
Standard deviation	0.2	84.2	11.4	0.0071
Sample mean	8.0	358.6	25.3	0.0017
Median	7.9	358.3	25.0	0.0021
Coefficient of Variation	2.7	23.5	45.1	407.1271

Figure 3 Analysis of Variables and Output

I then graphed the relationship between the variables and the output and found these conclusions.

Stay tuned for the data...

The middle aged triathlete who just happens to be bald

2012-05-19T10:06:00.001-07:00

Why are there a lot of 35 year-old triathletes who are bald?

What is the mechanism at play here... is it the triathlete or the bald person? Here are two arguments...

Cause Bald Person: Their genes adapt their bodies to try to make them faster by making them bald.

Cause Triathlete: The repetitive chronic stress causing premature baldness.

Or is it simply the premature hair lost is creating an early mid life crisis and pursuit of iron-man status.

Control Charts in the Workplace

2012-05-09T12:43:00.000-07:00

“A control chart is merely a graphical record of data taken from a repetitive process…” Physically the control chart is a data distribution turned sideways with the horizontal axis being successive tests, days, distance, or some other indication of order.” An example is shown below with the math to derive the points.

Control charts are a very practical idea because they depict what to accept and reject in a very simplistic way that someone on a assembly line can understand. Formulas and scripts can be written to update the control chart.

Now why don’t we use this useful too? I think it is because leaders are unfamiliar and to distant from their academic years to do the raw math to computing these limits. The math is very simple but those who have the capability and education stay away from using such tools. Also there is a stigma against using math and statistics for the same reason people distaste economist and their predictions. As a manage/supervisor the greater leverage to increasing productivity is not to come at you employees with numbers and stats but more of the softer relationship building skills. Although keeping score with statistics can create a sports team mentality… statistics as your primary form of communication creates disconnection and resentment amongst the workforce.

Bad Science: Correlation and Regression

2012-04-14T11:44:00.000-07:00

Analyzing the quality product of a road surfaced based on some quality measure in either the material itself or compaction process makes sense and is proven by statistics to have a positive correlation. Typically these correlations are very precise where the line of best fit can be used to estimate the quality of the final product. I think these are very useful in conveying statistical findings to the field personal in the form of heuristics or “rules of thumbs”. One of these useful ones is that for every 1% deviation in compaction spec equates to 10% off the life the road. This rule of thumb can be used to send home a point to workers that their attention to quality is magnified in the service life of the final product and this is why quality in their work means so much. To use statistics in this manner is a powerful management tool to foster anotomony in employees.

Observational studies do not establish cause and effect it is a logical fallacy. It can be used to generate hypothesis that then can be tested to establish cause and effect. This explains that some statistics can fit these lines of best fit but it is not the major contributing factor to the final outcome. In other words for example we all know that “people who eat breakfast are less likely to be obese” and this can be proven statistically but is that the mechanism that is factoring to obesity? Perhaps people who eat breakfast go to sleep on time and aren’t snacking and playing video games to the wee hours of the morning?

Blame the Baby Boomers

2012-03-27T18:56:00.001-07:00

Generation Y/Why, Millennia’s, Facebook Generation has recently been taken a lot of flack about being a lazy generation. This Boomerang generation although educated are predominately unemployed. According to a recent article in CNN 85% of college graduates choose to delay adulthood and move in with their parents (Source: http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/14/pf/boomerang_kids_move_home/)

It does make financial sense to move back in with M/D to payoff dep’t and create an emergency fund the problem is when is enough, enough.

As outlined in http://20somethingfinance.com/moving-in-with-parents/ the three virtues not being demonstrated by these individuals are: responsibility, urgency, and self-respect.

Let me pause there… I believe society blames these young individuals for their predicament. What everyone fails to see is the parents’ generation yes those Baby Boomers are one again responsible for allowing this post-adolescence period to occur. I think is safe to say that for the first time in a long time an offspring’s generation will be less privileged than the one before it.

(Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/17/business/economy/as-graduates-move-back-home-economy-feels-the-pain.html?_r=1)

Look into the eyes of the victim. It is not a man but a boy in a man’s body there. 21-25 is by no means a responsible adult, heck I see 25-35 year olds act with the financial and problem solving judgment of a teenager. It is the parents fault because of the values instilled in the child. We need a little more tough love/personal accountability and less bailouts.

The Crossover Point 2.0

2012-03-16T13:55:00.001-07:00

The crossover point is the point at which your investments begin to earn more money than the cost of your living expenses. At this point one has the freedom to leave their full time job for other meaningful ventures. I would like to introduce to you the 2.0 version which includes two new factors: 1) Decreasing motivation (a negative exponential equation contingent to an increasing investment return) and 2) Constantly increasing expectations or also know as the "the boss be getting on my nerves" (a linear climb).

The Crossover Point 2.0

NPH: Notifications Per Hour

2012-03-04T22:26:00.002-08:00

What does Neil Patrick Harris have to do with this post...

Nothing except NPH stands for "notifications per hour". Like a pop-up advertisement that comes up on your internet browser these notifications are predominately annoyances and decrease productivity and create unnecessary stress.

Some questions to ask:
When was a notification truly that timely that it was to trigger a crucial action?
Was someone hurt or would not hearing something then and there led to a monetary penalty?
How many times do you check your email?
How many times does someone call you for something while you are working on some analytical/creative task?

Switching tasks is pure evil. We are not computers who does 2 tasks at 50% speed for the sum of 100%. Instead we are much less efficient than that. We have limited cognitive resources let's use it wisely.

Occupy Wall Street

2012-02-12T12:16:00.000-08:00

“The next time you find yourself in an argument, rather than defend your position, see if you can see the other point of view first.” – Richard Carlson

Lately there has been much talk about the 99% vs the 1%. People occupying wall street over the bailouts and excessive executive compensation... basically the poor hating the rich.

In a recent popular blog the writer asked readers the vague question, "How much money do you make and how much money do you have saved". In the comments people there were two type of responses the haves "I make 70k a yr and have 450k in savings" and have-nots "I work from home and make 20k a year and have 2k in savings". Then the have-nots got really jealous and stated to rip on the haves. The post got to explicit and was taken of the site.

It has been said before but part of the reason the haves are the 1% and in the position they are in is because they are not thinking like the 99% (I say that even though a lot of the 1% are born into wealth). The 99% percent instead of protesting (camping out and smoking pot with the other jobless) how can you better harness this collaborative effort to something productive and more creative (other than copying your hippy parents' shenanigans).

Another observation is that whats the goal of the occupy wall street? Productive companies spend massive resources and are very deliberate in defining strategy and vision in order to steer a movement towards a common goal. It seems to me that there is no goal, end game, or progress towards a greater good with these protests.

Let us disband these misery camps and get out and get some... Ok there might not be any jobs out there so lets go and create them.

Cancer Doctors

2012-02-02T15:01:00.000-08:00

If your performance review at work is based on your level of achievement in relation to others expectations then I want to be a cancer doctor. The public believes that cancer is non curable and there is no timetable on a cure. We don't even know if it is possible (if probably is... if not preventable). I would be going into work at 10am after the traffic rush, taking an hour lunch, working out, and be back at home to catch the east coast NBA game. When I see my boss I could just say "its tough no one else knows..."

401K Accounts are for the Pigs and the Pigs Get Slaughtered

2011-12-13T12:08:00.000-08:00

Fact: In the 1960s when the 401k account first came out they were not called "retirement accounts" instead the government called the "government tax-sheltered accounts". The linkage of 401k and retirement accounts that we know today was coined by the private Investment Industry. In a way the big firms such as Vanguard, T Row Price, Schwab,... found that they were able to sell their once unpopular mutual funds in these account and thus opened an untapped market.

Now this was not all bad because it allowed stocks for the common man and offered an alternative to putting money away under your mattress or blindly depending on your company pension.

The three downsides of a 401k is that:

1) Companies typically charge .02-2% expense ratio. This is a big deal when especially computed over 20+ years of compounding. .05% seems small but it could mean 10% less money at the end if stocks go up 5% every year.

2) This transitions into the fact that this is 2010s and into the future. This prolonged economic slow down is not going anywhere. You know those people who are waiting to sell their homes at pre 2008 levels... well they better get comfortable because when you draw your lines of average growth we may not get there to 2025. I digressed I'm just making a point that the days of 20% gains per year are over. Experts say to expect 5-7% annual growth for the next generation.

3) The selection of funds in a company sponsored 401k program are typically crap since it is a limited selection and bad expense fee structure. It is like going to the restaurant and the waiter saying you can just order the hamburger. At the very least, transfer your money from your 401k to a Roth IRA or IRA but make sure your are taking advantage of any company match if available to you.

The Craigslist Penis Effect

2011-11-05T14:21:00.000-07:00

This idea is not novel by any means but it is a piggy back on someones elses idea that people out there suck.

"Basically The Craigslist Penis Effect describes situations where everyone else is so horrible that, by being even half-decent, you can dominate everyone else and win. These moron men on Craigslist would be better served writing 5 half-decent responses, testing to see which got the best response, and then sending it out instead of a picture of their generally mediocre manhood. I did exactly that for my friend on JDate and ended up getting very good at introducing girls to him. (Jewish women, beware of my Ashkenazi skills.)"

Call it doing your own research and a little personal accountability but again things aren't easy, they are simple. In 99.9% if you put a little effort into it such as 1 minutes or 5 minutes you beat the mean by leaps and bounds.

BS Flag: Dicks Drive Inn

2011-10-21T09:43:00.000-07:00

Why is it that every time I drive past Dicks Drive Inn it is really busy and it looks like a frenzy. The small part of my flocking instinct wants to go over there and stand in line with the rest everyone else just to see what the fuss is all about and have a hamburger so I have something to show for wasting my time. Whats the big deal... the food isin't that great/special and its crap food. Besides from being called "dicks" and appealing to our 13 year old humor... What Dicks has going for them is that there is no inside so everyone is outside contributing to the frenzy-critical point factor. It is no different than a crappy night club that appears busy with a long line outside. Next time you at Dicks count how many people are actually waiting outside and compare that to how many people are comfortable occupying a McDonald's and you will see what a gimmick it is. See look at the lemmings in this video.

Lawyers equals Fustration

2011-10-10T20:04:00.001-07:00

Today’s discussions forums really fired me up because as a construction manager I am typically on the end of a beating stick. My job is to keep people working safe with the use of safety policies and massive amounts of money in terms of the latest equipment, education, gadgets, and PPE. Despite all my efforts and acting in the best interests of my employees health and safety any injury or mishap results in 99.99% of the time very negatively on myself and my company in the form of lawsuits. It is very frustrating to do everything you can do in your mind to rid yourself of negligence and wrong doing and a court to still find you a fault. Perhaps it’s just the cost of doing business?